Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan

Phenological mismatch is less important than total nectar availability for checkerspot butterflies

Changes in phenology are a conspicuous fingerprint of climate change, leading to fears that phenological mismatches among interacting species will be a leading cause of population declines and extinction. We used quantile regression to analyze museum collection data and estimate changes in the phenological overlap of Baltimore checkerspot butterflies and 12 common nectar plant species over several decades in two geographic regions. We combined these museum data with field estimates of each species' flower density and nectar sugar production to estimate changes in resource availability caused by shifts in phenological overlap. Phenological overlap (measured as the proportion of plant flowering during the flight period of an average butterfly) decreased through time, primarily because the flowering period of nectar plants was longer, but the flight period of butterflies was shorter in recent years. Our study was also motivated by the hypothesis that phenological mismatches may be more severe in the southern region due to a midsummer dearth in floral resources, but this hypothesis was not supported by our data. Although phenological overlap was somewhat smaller in the southern region, changes in overlap through time were similar in both regions. When phenological overlap was weighted by nectar sugar production of different species, the overlap increased in the southern region but decreased in the northern region (the opposite of our prediction). Overall, nectar resources were much more abundant at study sites in our northern region than in our southern region, possibly due to differences in land management. Our study demonstrates the complexities of phenological mismatch of interacting species and highlights that phenological changes may have small impacts on population viability.

Spatial variability in herbaceous plant phenology is mostly explained by variability in temperature but also by photoperiod and functional traits

Whereas temporal variability of plant phenology in response to climate change has already been well studied, the spatial variability of phenology is not well understood. Given that phenological shifts may affect biotic interactions, there is a need to investigate how the variability in environmental factors relates to the spatial variability in herbaceous species' phenology by at the same time considering their functional traits to predict their general and species-specific responses to future climate change. In this project, we analysed phenology records of 148 herbaceous species, which were observed for a single year by the PhenObs network in 15 botanical gardens. For each species, we characterised the spatial variability in six different phenological stages across gardens. We used boosted regression trees to link these variabilities in phenology to the variability in environmental parameters (temperature, latitude and local habitat conditions) as well as species traits (seed mass, vegetative height, specific leaf area and temporal niche) hypothesised to be related to phenology variability. We found that spatial variability in the phenology of herbaceous species was mainly driven by the variability in temperature but also photoperiod was an important driving factor for some phenological stages. In addition, we found that early-flowering and less competitive species characterised by small specific leaf area and vegetative height were more variable in their phenology. Our findings contribute to the field of phenology by showing that besides temperature, photoperiod and functional traits are important to be included when spatial variability of herbaceous species is investigated.

Global change impacts on cacti (Cactaceae): current threats, challenges and conservation solutions

BACKGROUND

The plant family Cactaceae provides some of the most striking examples of adaptive evolution, expressing undeniably the most spectacular New World radiation of succulent plants distributed across arid and semi-arid regions of the Americas. Cacti are widely regarded for their cultural, economic and ecological value, yet they are also recognized as one of the most threatened and endangered taxonomic groups on the planet.

SCOPE

This paper reviews current threats to species of cacti that have distributions in arid to semi-arid subtropical regions. Our review focuses primarily on four global change forces: (1) increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; (2) increases in mean annual temperatures and heat waves; (3) increases in the duration, frequency and intensity of droughts; and (4) and increases in competition and wildfire frequency from invasion by non-native species. We provide a broad range of potential priorities and solutions for stemming the extinction risk of cacti species and populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Mitigating ongoing and emerging threats to cacti will require not only strong policy initiatives and international cooperation, but also new and creative approaches to conservation. These approaches include determining species at risk from climate extremes, enhancing habitat quality after disturbance, approaches and opportunities for ex situ conservation and restoration, and the potential use of forensic tools for identifying plants that have been removed illegally from the wild and sold on open markets.

Significantly Earlier Spring Migration in Most Bird Species at the Eastern Limit of Europe

The first arrival dates of 31 species of migrant birds in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 34-year period from 1989-2022. Trends in first arrival date were evaluated using regression against the year value. Patterns in arrival data with respect to species traits (habitat, migration distance, body weight, etc.) were evaluated using redundancy analysis. Relationships between first arrival dates and Tatarstan temperatures were also evaluated using regression methods of first-arrival date on monthly mean temperatures. Almost all (28 of 31) species revealed a significantly earlier migration arrival date; however, associations between arrival patterns and species traits were equivocal. Warmer temperatures were significantly associated with earlier arrival in 26 of the 31 species, but the relationship was insufficient to explain the average 11-day advance in species. For these species and in this location only the timing and location of arrival are well recorded; the exact wintering areas and migration routes, and the timing of these phases are less well understood. When these become better known, an investigation of the influence of environmental conditions (including temperature) on departure timing and passage timing and speed is recommended.

Climatic drivers and ecological implications of variation in the time interval between leaf-out and flowering

Leaf-out and flowering in any given species have evolved to occur in a predetermined sequence, with the inter-stage time interval optimized to maximize plant fitness. Although warming-induced advances of both leaf-out and flowering are well documented, it remains unclear whether shifts in these phenological phases differ in magnitudes and whether changes have occurred in the length of the inter-stage intervals. Here, we present an extensive synthesis of warming effects on flower-leaf time intervals, using long-term (1963-2014) and in situ data consisting of 11,858 leaf-out and flowering records for 183 species across China. We found that the timing of both spring phenological events was generally advanced, indicating a dominant impact of forcing conditions compared with chilling. Stable time intervals between leaf-out and flowering prevailed for most of the time series despite increasing temperatures; however, some of the investigated cases featured significant changes in the time intervals. The latter could be explained by differences in the temperature sensitivity (ST) between leaf and flower phenology. Greater ST for flowering than for leaf-out caused flowering times to advance faster than leaf emergence. This shortened the inter-stage intervals in leaf-first species and lengthened them in flower-first species. Variation in the time intervals between leaf-out and flowering events may have far-reaching ecological and evolutionary consequences, with implications for species fitness, intra/inter-species interactions, and ecosystem structure, function, and stability.

Spatial heterogeneity of first flowering date in Beijing's main urban area and its response to urban thermal environment

Phenology - the rhythm of periodic plant life cycle events - was significantly shaped by urban climate, with flowering as one most sensitive phenophase. Apart from the widely noticed urban-rural phenological discrepancy caused by heat island effect, driven by the aggravating spatial unevenness of urban thermal environment, the spatial heterogeneity of flowering time was also found within the urbanized area of some metropolitans, bringing multiple impacts on urban ecology, landscape and public health. This research aimed to reveal the intraurban spatial variation and response characteristics of Beijing's trees flowering phenology that remained largely unclear before. We analyzed the spatial heterogeneity pattern of the first flowering date (FFD) for 42 deciduous woody species in Beijing's main urban area (MUA), and explored the species-specific phenological response to local thermal environment. The sample plots were set in 9 green spaces distributing from urban center to northwest suburb in Beijing's MUA, the FFD data was collected by ground-based phenological observation, and local thermal environment was measured with land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from MOD11A1 products. The main results are as follows: (1) A significant spatial variation for FFD existed among 9 sample plots and the maximum spatial difference of FFD reached 6.76 ± 1.77 days in average, FFD showed an overall delay trend from urban center in 2^nd Ring to outskirts beyond 5^th Ring with 3^rd Ring as a critical line for significant phenological difference. (2) The FFD of 35 species was found to be negatively correlated with [Formula: see text] (average of daily mean LST above 0 °C before mean FFD) in the sample plot (p < 0.05) with a response sensitivity of 2.99 ± 0.87 days/°C, which reflected the significant impact of LST variation during flower development period. Furthermore, the spatial difference and response sensitivity of FFD for a specific species were found to be negatively associated with its mean FFD value (p < 0.05), i.e., the flowering time of early-blooming species tended to be more sensitive to thermal environment variation compared with late-blooming ones. This research illustrated how flowering phenology responded to the heterogeneous intraurban thermal environment in Beijing's MUA, which can improve our understanding of the vegetation dynamics in a constantly changing urban environment. And as a critical indicator of trees' climate vulnerability assessment, the species-specific phenological response sensitivity could also guide species selection in urban forest construction.

Full flowering phenology of apple tree (&lt;i&gt;Malus domestica&lt;/i&gt;) in Pūre orchard, Latvia from 1959 to 2019

Abstract. The Pūre orchard is one of the oldest apple orchards in the Baltic, where thousands of varieties of fruit trees from throughout the world are grown and tested. Over time, a huge knowledge base has been accumulated, but most of the observational data are stored in archives in paper format. We have digitized a small part of the full flowering phenological data of apple trees (Malus domestica) over the period of 1959 to 2019 for 17 varieties of apple trees, a significant step for horticulture and agricultural economics in Latvia. Climate change has led to significant changes in the phenology of apple trees as all varieties, autumn, summer and winter, have begun to flower earlier: from 2002 to 2019, on average full flowering was recorded to have taken place around 21 May, whereas for the period 1959–1967 it occurred around 27–28 May. To develop better-quality phenological predictions and to take account of the fragmentary nature of phenological data, in our study we assessed the performance of three meteorological data sets – gridded observation data from E-OBS, ERA5-Land reanalysis data and direct observations from a distant meteorological station – in simple phenological degree-day models. In the first approximation, the gridded E-OBS data set performs best in our phenological model.

The study of soluble solids content accumulation dynamics under the influence of weather factors in the fruits of cherries

High tasting assessment of the fruit of sweet cherry is due to the favorable soluble solids content (SSC). The weather parameters and varietal features during the formation of fruit have the dominant influence on the accumulation of soluble solids. This issue has gained new relevance in the context of global climate change. The research aimed to develop a dependence of the accumulation of soluble solids of the various sorts of sweet cherries on the weather conditions of the South Steppe zone of Ukraine. Statistical analysis of the values of soluble solids in sweet cherry fruit was performed according to the average indicators of three groups of cultivars. To achieve this goal, the laboratory, factor, correlation, and regression analyses were carried out. The mathematical model was built with the application of factor and regression analysis methods, with the principal component analysis being used. The factor and regression analysis methods became the basis for the linear regression model of dependence of SSC fund accumulation on the influence of climatic parameters for the cultivar types of the three ripening terms. Based on the constructed regression models, we analyzed the degree of influence of the weather parameters on the SSC indicator by calculating the coefficients of Δi relative influence. The largest influence was set for the group of temperature and humidity parameters with the maximum share of Δi ≥9.50%. It was mathematically substantiated that the weather parameters of the last month of fruit formation had the greatest influence on the accumulation of SSC in the sweet cherry fruit, regardless of the period of ripening. For early and medium ripening sweet cherries, those were the weather parameters for May, and for those of late-term of ripening June parameters were of the maximum value.

Earlier spring reduces potential for gene flow via reduced flowering synchrony across an elevational gradient

PREMISE

One of the best-documented ecological responses to climate warming involves temporal shifts of phenological events. However, we lack an understanding of how phenological responses to climate change vary among populations of the same species. Such variability has the potential to affect flowering synchrony among populations and hence the potential for gene flow.

METHODS

To test whether an earlier start of the growing season affects the potential for gene flow among populations, we quantified the distributions of flowering times of two spring-flowering plants (Trillium erectum and Erythronium americanum) over 6 years along an elevational gradient. We developed a novel model-based metric of potential gene flow between pairs of populations to quantify the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow based on flowering phenology.

RESULTS

Earlier onset of spring led to greater separation of peak flowering dates across the elevational gradient for both species investigated, but was only associated with a reduction in potential gene flow in T. erectum, not E. americanum.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that climate change could decrease gene flow via phenological separation among populations along climatic gradients. We also provide a novel method for quantifying potential pollen-mediated gene flow using data on flowering phenology, based on a quantitative, more biologically interpretable model than other available metrics.

Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea

The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.

Prediction of Plant Phenological Shift under Climate Change in South Korea

Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis), and peach tree (Prunus persica) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals

In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.

Multi-Timescale Education Program for Temporal Expansion in Ecocentric Education: Using Fixed-Point Time-Lapse Images for Phenology Observation

Ecocentric education programs should include a method for the in-depth understanding of multi-scale ecological time concepts. To accomplish this, the common restriction that ecocentric education should pertain only to realistic nature may have to be removed. The purpose of this research was to confirm the validity of a program featuring phenology observation, employing fixed-point time-lapse images as climate change learning, and to obtain suggestions on the influence of the program on the multi-timescale concepts of the learners. An observation sheet listing images of cherry flowering from 16 April to 15 March each year from 1996 to 2017 was created, and the 50-min educational program using the observation sheet was conducted with 189 third year junior high school students. The tendencies among students’ answers to the two questions before and after the program suggest that the program contributed to the students acquiring the hundreds-year timescale concept based on the short-term timescale concept of dynamic nature. The contribution of this research is to visualize long-term and multi-scale ecological time concepts. By combining long-term time-lapse images with everyday nature experiences, the possibility of expanding such emotions as wonder and attachment to nature towards a long-term ecological timescale is achieved.

Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China

Existing evidence demonstrates that the first flowering date (FFD) of most plant species became earlier in response to temperature increase over the past several decades. However, the studies on changes in flowering duration (FD) were limited. By using the non-parametric Theil-Sen estimator, this study investigated the temporal trends in 127 time series of FFD, end of flowering date (EFD), and FD of 97 woody plants from 1963 to 2014 at three sites (Harbin, Beijing, and Xi'an) in North China. The relationship between flowering phenophases and temperature was analyzed using two phenological models. The results showed that most of FFD and EFD time series exhibited an apparent advancing trend. Among them, trends of 52.0% (40.9%) of FFD (EFD) time series were significant (P < 0.05). FFD and EFD time series (95.3 and 89.8%, respectively) responded negatively and significantly to preseason temperature (P < 0.05). The direction of FD changes varied among sites and species. On average, a shortening trend of FD was observed at Harbin (-0.51 days decade^-1), with 7.5% of species significantly. However, FD on average extended by 0.42 and 0.93 days decade^-1 at Beijing (24.5% significantly) and Xi'an (28.9% significantly), respectively. The regression models could simulate the interannual changes in FFD and EFD with the mean goodness of fit (R²) ranging from 0.37 to 0.67, but fail to simulate the changes in FD accurately (R² ranging from 0.09 to 0.18). The growing degree day model could improve the R² for simulating FFD and EFD except for FD. Therefore, more phenological models need to be tested, and more drivers of FD need to be further investigated.

Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment

Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43 yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3 yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.

CrowdCurio: an online crowdsourcing platform to facilitate climate change studies using herbarium specimens

Phenology is a key aspect of plant success. Recent research has demonstrated that herbarium specimens can provide important information on plant phenology. Massive digitization efforts have the potential to greatly expand herbarium-based phenological research, but also pose a serious challenge regarding efficient data collection. Here, we introduce CrowdCurio, a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. We test its utility by having workers collect phenological data (number of flower buds, open flowers and fruits) from specimens of two common New England (USA) species: Chelidonium majus and Vaccinium angustifolium. We assess the reliability of using nonexpert workers (i.e. Amazon Mechanical Turk) against expert workers. We also use these data to estimate the phenological sensitivity to temperature for both species across multiple phenophases. We found no difference in the data quality of nonexperts and experts. Nonexperts, however, were a more efficient way of collecting more data at lower cost. We also found that phenological sensitivity varied across both species and phenophases. Our study demonstrates the utility of CrowdCurio as a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. Furthermore, our results highlight the insight gained from collecting large amounts of phenological data to estimate multiple phenophases.

Review: advances in in situ and satellite phenological observations in Japan

To accurately evaluate the responses of spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem functioning (evapotranspiration and photosynthesis) and services (regulating and cultural services) to the rapid changes caused by global warming, we depend on long-term, continuous, near-surface, and satellite remote sensing of phenology over wide areas. Here, we review such phenological studies in Japan and discuss our current knowledge, problems, and future developments. In contrast with North America and Europe, Japan has been able to evaluate plant phenology along vertical and horizontal gradients within a narrow area because of the country's high topographic relief. Phenological observation networks that support scientific studies and outreach activities have used near-surface tools such as digital cameras and spectral radiometers. Differences in phenology among ecosystems and tree species have been detected by analyzing the seasonal variation of red, green, and blue digital numbers (RGB values) extracted from phenological images, as well as spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The relationships between seasonal variations in RGB-derived indices or spectral characteristics and the ecological and CO2 flux measurement data have been well validated. In contrast, insufficient satellite remote-sensing observations have been conducted because of the coarse spatial resolution of previous datasets, which could not detect the heterogeneous plant phenology that results from Japan's complex topography and vegetation. To improve Japanese phenological observations, multidisciplinary analysis and evaluation will be needed to link traditional phenological observations with "index trees," near-surface and satellite remote-sensing observations, "citizen science" (observations by citizens), and results published on the Internet.

Historical changes in flowering phenology are governed by temperature × precipitation interactions in a widespread perennial herb in western North America

For most species, a precise understanding of how climatic parameters determine the timing of seasonal life cycle stages is constrained by limited long-term data. Further, most long-term studies of plant phenology that have examined relationships between phenological timing and climate have been local in scale or have focused on single climatic parameters. Herbarium specimens, however, can expand the temporal and spatial coverage of phenological datasets. Using Trillium ovatum specimens collected over > 100 yr across its native range, we analyzed how seasonal climatic conditions (mean minimum temperature (Tmin ), mean maximum temperature and total precipitation (PPT)) affect flowering phenology. We then examined long-term changes in climatic conditions and in the timing of flowering across T. ovatum's range. Warmer Tmin advanced flowering, whereas higher PPT delayed flowering. However, Tmin and PPT were shown to interact: the advancing effect of warmer Tmin was strongest where PPT was highest, and the delaying effect of higher PPT was strongest where Tmin was coldest. The direction of temporal change in climatic parameters and in the timing of flowering was dependent on geographic location. Tmin , for example, decreased across the observation period in coastal regions, but increased in inland areas. Our results highlight the complex effects of climate and geographic location on phenology.

Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change

Existing evidence of plant phenological change to temperature increase demonstrates that the phenological responsiveness is greater at warmer locations and in early-season plant species. Explanations of these findings are scarce and not settled. Some studies suggest considering phenology as one functional trait within a plant's life history strategy. In this study, we adapt an existing phenological model to derive a generalized sensitivity in space (SpaceSens) model for calculating temperature sensitivity of spring plant phenophases across species and locations. The SpaceSens model have three parameters, including the temperature at the onset date of phenophases (T_p), base temperature threshold (T_b) and the length of period (L) used to calculate the mean temperature when performing regression analysis between phenology and temperature. A case study on first leaf date of 20 plant species from eastern China shows that the change of T_p and T_b among different species accounts for interspecific difference in temperature sensitivity. Moreover, lower T_p at lower latitude is the main reason why spring phenological responsiveness is greater there. These results suggest that spring phenophases of more responsive, early-season plants (especially in low latitude) will probably continue to diverge from the other late-season plants with temperatures warming in the future.

Changes in first flowering dates and flowering duration of 232 plant species on the island of Guernsey

Climate change has affected plant phenology; increasing temperatures are associated with advancing first flowering dates. The impact on flowering duration, however, has rarely been studied. In this study, we analysed first flowering dates and flowering durations from a 27 year dataset of weekly flower observations on 232 plant species from the island of Guernsey in the English Channel. The aim of this study was to explore variation in trends and relationships between first flowering dates, flowering duration and temperature. We specifically looked for evidence that traits, such as life forms and phylogenetic groups, explained variation in sensitivity of first flowering and flowering duration among species. Overall trends revealed significantly earlier flowering over time, by an average of 5.2 days decade(-1) since 1985. A highly significant shortening of flowering duration was observed by an average of 10 days decade(-1) . Correlations between first flowering, flowering duration and year varied between different species, traits and flowering periods. Significant differences among traits were observed for first flowering and to a lesser degree for flowering duration. Overall, in comparison to first flowering, more species had significant trends in flowering duration. Temperature relationships revealed large differences in strength and direction of response. 55% of the species revealed a significant negative relationship of first flowering dates and temperature. In contrast, only 19% of flowering durations had a significant negative temperature relationship. The advance in first flowering date together with a shortening of flowering duration suggests potentially serious impacts on pollinators, which might pose a major threat to biodiversity, agriculture and horticulture. Human health, in terms of pollen allergies, however, might benefit from a shortening of specific plant pollen seasons.

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

Evidence of genetic change in the flowering phenology of sea beets along a latitudinal cline within two decades

Sea beets grown from seeds collected in 1989 and 2009 along the coasts of France and adjacent regions were compared for flowering date under controlled conditions. Seeds from both collection years were sown simultaneously and cultivated under the same glasshouse conditions. Date of flowering onset and year of first flowering were recorded. There was an overall northward shift in flowering time of about 0.35° latitude (i.e. 39 km) over the 20-year period. The southern portion of the latitudinal gradient--that is, from 44.7°N to 47.28°N--flowered significantly later by a mean of 1.78 days, equivalent to a 43.2-km northward shift of phenotypes. In the northern latitudes between 48.6°N and 52°N, flowering date was significantly earlier by a mean of 4.04 days, corresponding to a mean northward shift of 104.9 km, and this shift was apparently due to a diminished requirement of exposure to cold temperatures (i.e. vernalization), for which we found direct and indirect evidence. As all plants were grown from seed under identical conditions, we conclude that genetic changes occurred in the sensitivity to environmental cues that mediate the onset of flowering in both the northern and the southern latitudes of the gradient. Microevolution and gene flow may have contributed to this change. There was no significant change in the frequency of plants that flowered without vernalization. The lack of vernalization requirement may be associated with environmental instability rather than with climate conditions.

Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology

Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.

Diapause termination of Rhagoletis cerasi pupae is regulated by local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity: escape in time through bet-hedging strategies

Persistence and thriving of univoltine, herbivore insect species of the temperate zone rely on obligate diapause response that ensures winter survival and synchronization with host phenology. We used a stenophagous fruit fly (Rhagoletis cerasi) with obligate pupae diapause to determine genetic and environmental effects on diapause intensity of geographically isolated populations with habitat heterogeneity. Pupae from two Greek and one German populations with various gene flow rates were exposed at five constant chilling temperatures (0-12 °C) for different durations and then incubated at a high temperature until all adults have emerged. Pupae diapause intensity differs among Greek and German populations, suggesting an adaptive response to habitat heterogeneity (mostly differences in phenology patterns of local host cultivars). Moderately warm winter temperatures, such as 8 °C, promote diapause termination in all three populations. Insufficient chilling (short duration or warmer temperatures) regulates the expression of prolonged dormancy. Interestingly, extended chilling (longer than required for terminating diapause) 'return' pupae to another (facultative) cycle of dormancy enabling adults to emerge during the next appropriate 'window of time'; a strategy first time reported for univoltine insects. Consequently, diapause duration of R. cerasi is determined both by i) the adaptive response to local climatic conditions (annual dormancy) and ii) the plastic responses to interannual climatic variability resulting in two types of long life cycles within populations, prolonged and facultative dormancy as response to insufficient chilling and extended exposure to chilling, respectively. Long life cycles are expressed as a part of dormancy bet-hedging strategies of R. cerasi populations.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied.

METHODS

We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts.

KEY RESULTS

Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here.

CONCLUSIONS

Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

In the current context of global warming, an analysis is required of spatially-extensive and long-term blooming data in fruit trees to make up for insufficient information on regional-scale blooming changes and determinisms that are key to the phenological adaptation of these species. We therefore analysed blooming dates over long periods at climate-contrasted sites in Western Europe, focusing mainly on the Golden Delicious apple that is grown worldwide. On average, blooming advances were more pronounced in northern continental (10 days) than in western oceanic (6-7 days) regions, while the shortest advance was found on the Mediterranean coastline. Temporal trends toward blooming phase shortenings were also observed in continental regions. These regional differences in temporal variability across Western Europe resulted in a decrease in spatial variability, i.e. shorter time intervals between blooming dates in contrasted regions (8-10-day decrease for full bloom between Mediterranean and continental regions). Fitted sequential models were used to reproduce phenological changes. Marked trends toward shorter simulated durations of forcing period (bud growth from dormancy release to blooming) and high positive correlations between these durations and observed blooming dates support the notion that blooming advances and shortenings are mainly due to faster satisfaction of the heating requirement. However, trends toward later dormancy releases were also noted in oceanic and Mediterranean regions. This could tend toward blooming delays and explain the shorter advances in these regions despite similar or greater warming. The regional differences in simulated chilling and forcing periods were consistent with the regional differences in temperature increases.

Response of the Morus bombycis growing season to temperature and its latitudinal pattern in Japan

Changes in leaf phenology lengthen the growing season length (GSL, the days between leaf budburst and leaf fall) under the global warming. GSL and the leaf phenology response to climate change is one of the most important predictors of climate change effect on plants. Empirical evidence of climatic effects on GSL remains scarce, especially at a regional scale and the latitudinal pattern. This study analyzed the datasets of leaf budburst and fall phenology in Morus bombycis (Urticales), which were observed by the agency of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1953 to 2005 over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). In the present study, single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan were calculated and their spatial patterns using general linear models were tested. The results showed that the GSL extension was caused mainly by a delay in leaf fall phenology. Relationships between latitude and leaf phenological and GSL responses against air temperature were significantly negative. The response of leaf phenology and GSL to air temperature at lower latitudes was larger than that at higher latitudes. The findings indicate that GSL extension should be considered with regards to latitude and climate change.

Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.

Onset of summer flowering in a 'Sky Island' is driven by monsoon moisture

Temperatures for the southwestern USA are predicted to increase in coming decades, especially during the summer season; however, little is known about how summer precipitation patterns may change. We aimed to better understand how nonsucculent plants of a water-limited gradient encompassing xeric desert to mesic mountain-top may respond to changes in summer conditions. We used a species-rich 26-yr flowering record to determine species' relationships with precipitation and temperature in months coincident with and previous to flowering. The onset of summer flowering was strongly influenced by the amount and timing of July precipitation, regardless of elevation or life form, suggesting the critical importance of soil moisture in triggering summer flowering in this region. Future changes in the timing or consistency of the early monsoon will probably impact directly on the onset of flowering for many species in this region. In addition, a key implication of predicted increasing temperatures is a decrease in available soil moisture. At all elevations, many species may be expected to flower later in the summer under the decreased soil moisture conditions associated with warmer temperatures. However, impacts on summer flowering may be greater at higher elevations, because of the greater sensitivity of mesic plants to water stress.

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena-from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes-have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

Variation in the impact of climate change on flowering phenology and abundance: An examination of two pairs of closely related wildflower species

Variability in plant phenological responses to climate change is likely to lead to changes in many ecological relationships as the climate continues to change. We used a 34-yr record of flowering times and flower abundance for four species (two Delphinium [Ranunculaceae] species and two Mertensia [Boraginaceae] species) from a subalpine plant community near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to test the hypothesis that the phenologies of early-flowering species change more rapidly in response to climatological and other abiotic cues than do late-flowering species, a pattern previously found in plant communities in North America and Europe. We also explored a related hypothesis, that flower abundance of late-flowering species is more responsive to changes in climate than that of early-flowering species. The Delphinium species did not support these hypotheses, but the Mertensia species did. The difference between the peak flowering times of the early and late Mertensia species is expanding, leading to a period of diminished resources for pollinators that specialize on this genus. Mertensia ciliata populations are already severely declining in our study area, possibly as a result of earlier snowmelt. Together, these results show that the reported differences between early- and late-flowering species may be widespread, but they are not ubiquitous.

The role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens have a unique set of resources that allows them to host important climate change research projects not easily undertaken elsewhere. These resources include controlled growing conditions, living collections with broad taxonomic representation, meticulous record-keeping, networks spanning wide geographic areas, and knowledgeable staff. Indeed, botanical gardens have already contributed significantly to our understanding of biological responses to climate change, particularly the effects of temperature on the timing of flowering and leaf-out. They have also made significant contributions to the understanding of the relationships among climate, physiology, and anatomy. Gardens are finding new uses for traditional research tools such as herbarium specimens and historical photographs, which are increasingly being used to obtain information on past plant behavior. Additional work on invasive species and comparative studies of responses to climatic variation are providing insights on important ecological, evolutionary, and management questions. With their large collections of plant species from throughout the world and excellent herbaria, botanical gardens are well positioned to expand their current activities to continue to provide leadership in climate change research and education.