Clustering of malaria infections within an endemic population: risk of malaria associated with the type of housing construction

The Uganda housing modification study - association between housing characteristics and malaria burden in a moderate to high transmission setting in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Scale up of proven malaria control interventions has not been sufficient to control malaria in Uganda, emphasizing the need to explore innovative new approaches. Improved housing is one such promising strategy. This paper describes housing characteristics and their association with malaria burden in a moderate to high transmission setting in Uganda.

METHODS

Between October and November 2021, a household survey was conducted in 1500 randomly selected households in Jinja and Luuka districts. Information on demographics, housing characteristics, use of malaria prevention measures, and proxy indicators of wealth were collected for each household. A finger-prick blood sample was obtained for thick blood smears for malaria from all children aged 6 months to 14 years in the surveyed households. Febrile children had a malaria rapid diagnostics test (RDT) done; positive cases were managed according to national treatment guidelines. Haemoglobin was assessed in children aged < 5 years. Households were stratified as having modern houses (defined as having finished materials for roofs, walls, and floors and closed eaves) or traditional houses (those not meeting the definition of modern house). Associations between malaria burden and house type were estimated using mixed effects models and adjusted for age, wealth, and bed net use.

RESULTS

Most (65.5%) of the households surveyed lived in traditional houses. Most of the houses had closed eaves (85.5%), however, the use of other protective features like window/vent screens and installed ceilings was limited (0.4% had screened windows, 2.8% had screened air vents, and 5.2% had ceiling). Overall, 3,443 children were included in the clinical survey, of which 31.4% had a positive smear. RDT test positivity rate was 56.6% among children with fever. Participants living in modern houses had a significantly lower parasite prevalence by microscopy (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR = 0.80]; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71 - 0.90), RDT test positivity rate (aPR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.81 - 0.99), and anaemia (aPR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.65 - 0.97) compared to those in traditional houses.

CONCLUSION

The study found that even after adjusting for wealth, higher quality housing had a moderate protective effect against malaria, on top of the protection already afforded by recently distributed nets.

Long-lasting household damage from Cyclone Idai increases malaria risk in rural western Mozambique

Cyclone Idai in 2019 was one of the worst tropical cyclones recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The storm caused catastrophic damage and led to a humanitarian crisis in Mozambique. The affected population suffered a cholera epidemic on top of housing and infrastructure damage and loss of life. The housing and infrastructure damage sustained during Cyclone Idai still has not been addressed in all affected communities. This is of grave concern because storm damage results in poor housing conditions which are known to increase the risk of malaria. Mozambique has the 4th highest malaria prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and is struggling to control malaria in most of the country. We conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey in Sussundenga Village, Manica Province, Mozambique in December 2019-February 2020. We found that most participants (64%) lived in households that sustained damage during Cyclone Idai. The overall malaria prevalence was 31% measured by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). When controlling for confounding variables, the odds of malaria infection was nearly threefold higher in participants who lived in households damaged by Cyclone Idai nearly a year after the storm. This highlights the need for long-term disaster response to improve the efficiency and success of malaria control efforts.

The spatial signature of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections: quantifying the clustering of infections in cross-sectional surveys and cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Over the last decades, enormous successes have been achieved in reducing malaria burden globally. In Latin America, South East Asia, and the Western Pacific, many countries now pursue the goal of malaria elimination by 2030. It is widely acknowledged that Plasmodium spp. infections cluster spatially so that interventions need to be spatially informed, e.g. spatially targeted reactive case detection strategies. Here, the spatial signature method is introduced as a tool to quantify the distance around an index infection within which other infections significantly cluster.

METHODS

Data were considered from cross-sectional surveys from Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia, and Solomon Islands, conducted between 2012 and 2018. Household locations were recorded by GPS and finger-prick blood samples from participants were tested for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Cohort studies from Brazil and Thailand with monthly sampling over a year from 2013 until 2014 were also included. The prevalence of PCR-confirmed infections was calculated at increasing distance around index infections (and growing time intervals in the cohort studies). Statistical significance was defined as prevalence outside of a 95%-quantile interval of a bootstrap null distribution after random re-allocation of locations of infections.

RESULTS

Prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections was elevated in close proximity around index infections and decreased with distance in most study sites, e.g. from 21.3% at 0 km to the global study prevalence of 6.4% for P. vivax in the Cambodian survey. In the cohort studies, the clustering decreased with longer time windows. The distance from index infections to a 50% reduction of prevalence ranged from 25 m to 3175 m, tending to shorter distances at lower global study prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial signatures of P. vivax and P. falciparum infections demonstrate spatial clustering across a diverse set of study sites, quantifying the distance within which the clustering occurs. The method offers a novel tool in malaria epidemiology, potentially informing reactive intervention strategies regarding radius choices of operations around detected infections and thus strengthening malaria elimination endeavours.

Spatiotemporal variation of malaria incidence in parasite clearance interventions and non-intervention areas in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

Background

In Ethiopia, malaria remains a major public health problem. To eliminate malaria, parasite clearance interventions were implemented in six kebeles (the lowest administrative unit) in the Amhara region. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria is essential for targeting appropriate parasite clearance interventions to achieve the elimination goal. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria incidence in the intervention and non-intervention areas. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of community-based malaria in the intervention and non-intervention kebeles between 2013 and 2018 in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods

Malaria data from 212 kebeles in eight districts were downloaded from the District Health Information System2 (DHIS2) database. We used Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate seasonal variations; Anselin Local Moran’s I statistical analysis to detect hotspot and cold spot clusters of malaria cases; and a discrete Poisson model using Kulldorff scan statistics to identify statistically significant clusters of malaria cases.

Results

The result showed that the reduction in the trend of malaria incidence was higher in the intervention areas compared to the non-intervention areas during the study period with a slope of -0.044 (-0.064, -0.023) and -0.038 (-0.051, -0.024), respectively. However, the difference was not statistically significant. The Global Moran’s I statistics detected the presence of malaria clusters (z-score = 12.05; p<0.001); the Anselin Local Moran’s I statistics identified hotspot malaria clusters at 21 locations in Gendawuha and Metema districts. A statistically significant spatial, temporal, and space-time cluster of malaria cases were detected. Most likely type of spatial clusters of malaria cases (LLR = 195501.5; p <0.001) were detected in all kebeles of Gendawuha and Metema districts. The temporal scan statistic identified three peak periods between September 2013 and November 2015 (LLR = 8727.5; p<0.001). Statistically significant most-likely type of space-time clusters of malaria cases (LLR = 97494.3; p<0.001) were detected at 22 locations from June 2014 to November 2016 in Metema district.

Conclusion

There was a significant decline in malaria incidence in the intervention areas. There were statistically significant spatiotemporal variations of malaria in the study areas. Applying appropriate parasite clearance interventions is highly recommended for the better achievement of the elimination goal. A more rigorous evaluation of the impact of parasite clearance interventions is recommended.

Cattle-related risk factors for malaria in southwest Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Despite the low to moderate intensity of malaria transmission present in Ethiopia, malaria is still a leading public health problem. Current vector control interventions, principally long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying, when deployed alone or in combination, are insufficient to control the dominant vector species due to their exophagic and exophilic tendencies. Zooprophylaxis presents a potential supplementary vector control method for malaria; however, supporting evidence for its efficacy has been mixed.

METHODS

To identify risk factors of malaria and to estimate the association between cattle and Anopheles vector abundance as well as malaria risk, a cross-sectional study was conducted in a village near Arba Minch, Ethiopia. Epidemiological surveys (households = 95, individuals = 463), mosquito collections using CDC light traps and a census of cattle and human populations were conducted. To capture environmental conditions, land cover and water bodies were mapped using satellite imagery. Risk factor analyses were performed through logistic, Poisson, negative binomial, and spatial weighted regression models.

RESULTS

The only risk factor associated with self-reported malaria illness at an individual level was being a child aged 5 or under, where they had three times higher odds than adults. At the household level, variables associated with malaria vector abundance, especially those indoors, included socioeconomic status, the proportion of children in a household and cattle population density.

CONCLUSIONS

Study results are limited by the low abundance of malaria vectors found and use of self-reported malaria incidence. Environmental factors together with a household's socioeconomic status and host availability played important roles in the risk of malaria infection in southwest Ethiopia. Cattle abundance in the form of higher cattle to human ratios may act as a protective factor against mosquito infestation and malaria risk. Humans should remain indoors to maximize potential protection against vectors and cattle kept outside of homes.

Socio-economic and household determinants of malaria in adults aged 45 and above: analysis of longitudinal ageing survey in India, 2017-2018

Background

Even though malaria cases have drastically come down in the last decade, malaria remains a serious public health concern in many parts of India. National Framework for Malaria Elimination in India (2016–2030) has been launched with the goal to eliminate malaria by 2030. Understanding the socio-economic and household determinants of malaria at the national level will greatly aid India’s malaria elimination efforts.

Methods

The data from Longitudinal Ageing Survey of India (LASI) Wave 1 (2017–2018) survey comprising 70,671 respondents ≥ 45 years across all the States and Union Territories were used for the analysis. Simple and multiple logistic regressions were used to obtain the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio respectively of the socio-economic and household variables.

Results

The major socio-economic variables that increase the likelihood of malaria are caste (‘scheduled tribes’), low education levels and rural residence. The scheduled tribes have 1.8 times higher odds of malaria than the scheduled castes (AOR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5–2.1). Respondents with high school education (6–12 grade) (AOR: 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6–0.8) and college education (AOR: 0.5; 95% CI: 0.4–0.6) had a very low risk of malaria than those with no school years. Rural residence and occupation (agriculture and allied jobs) also increases the odds of malaria. The major housing determinants are household size (≥ 6), housing type (kutcha), use of unclean fuel, outside water source, improper sanitation (toilet facilities) and damp wall/ceiling.

Conclusions

The study has identified the major socio-economic and housing factors associated with malaria in adults aged 45 and above. In addition to vector and parasite control strategies in the tribal dominated regions of India, improving literacy and housing conditions may help India’s malaria elimination efforts.

The role of improved housing and living environments in malaria control and elimination

Malaria risk and endemicity is often associated with the nature of human habitation and living environment. The disappearance of malaria from regions where it had been endemic for centuries, such as coastal areas of southern England, has been attributed, at least in part, to improvement in the quality of housing. Moreover, indigenous malaria transmission ceased throughout England without the necessity to eliminate the vector mosquitoes. The principles of malaria transmission, as formulated following the thinking of the pioneers of malaria epidemiology, Ronald Ross and George Macdonald, show how this may happen. Malaria ceases to be sustainable where its reproduction number, R0, the number of new cases generated on average for each existing case of malaria, falls below 1. In the terms of a Ross/Macdonald analysis the reduced contact between humans and blood-feeding mosquitoes that is achieved through housing that is secure against mosquito entry can have a powerful effect in reducing malaria R0. The island of Sri Lanka, where malaria had been endemic probably for centuries previously, has reported no indigenous cases of malaria since 2012. The disappearance of malaria from Sri Lanka followed an effective attack upon malaria transmission by the Sri Lanka Anti Malaria Campaign. The targeted and enhanced efforts of this campaign launched in 1999, drove the malaria R0 below 1 for most of the period up to 2012, leading to a nearly continuous decline in malaria cases until their extinction. The decades leading up to the launch of these efforts were ones of general improvement of living environment and notably in the quality of housing stock. Studies in the late 1980s had shown that quality of housing in a highly malarious district of Sri Lanka was a strong determinant of malaria risk. Through its effects on malaria R0, improved housing is likely to have facilitated the malaria control and cessation of indigenous malaria transmission in Sri Lanka and that it will help reduce the risk of the re-introduction of malaria to the island.

Assessment of environmental variability on malaria transmission in a malaria-endemic rural dry zone locality of Sri Lanka: The wavelet approach

Malaria is a global public health concern and its dynamic transmission is still a complex process. Malaria transmission largely depends on various factors, including demography, geography, vector dynamics, parasite reservoir, and climate. The dynamic behaviour of malaria transmission has been explained using various statistical and mathematical methods. Of them, wavelet analysis is a powerful mathematical technique used in analysing rapidly changing time-series to understand disease processes in a more holistic way. The current study is aimed at identifying the pattern of malaria transmission and its variability with environmental factors in Kataragama, a malaria-endemic dry zone locality of Sri Lanka, using a wavelet approach. Monthly environmental data including total rainfall and mean water flow of the “Menik Ganga” river; mean temperature, mean minimum and maximum temperatures and mean relative humidity; and malaria cases in the Kataragama Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area were obtained from the Department of Irrigation, Department of Meteorology and Malaria Research Unit (MRU) of University of Colombo, respectively, for the period 1990 to 2005. Wavelet theory was applied to analyze these monthly time series data. There were two significant periodicities in malaria cases during the period of 1992–1995 and 1999–2000. The cross-wavelet power spectrums revealed an anti-phase correlation of malaria cases with mean temperature, minimum temperature, and water flow of “Menik Ganga” river during the period 1991–1995, while the in-phase correlation with rainfall is noticeable only during 1991–1992. Relative humidity was similarly associated with malaria cases between 1991–1992. It appears that environmental variables have contributed to a higher incidence of malaria cases in Kataragama in different time periods between 1990 and 2005.

Risk factor assessment for clinical malaria among forest-goers in a pre-elimination setting in Phu Yen Province, Vietnam

Background

The transition from malaria control to elimination requires understanding and targeting interventions among high-risk populations. In Vietnam, forest-goers are often difficult to test, treat and follow-up for malaria because they are highly mobile. If undiagnosed, forest-goers can maintain parasite reservoirs and contribute to ongoing malaria transmission.

Methods

A case–control study was conducted to identify malaria risk factors associated with forest-goers in three communes in Phu Yen Province, Vietnam. Cases (n = 81) were residents from the study area diagnosed with malaria and known to frequent forest areas. Controls (n = 94) were randomly selected forest-going residents from within the study area with no identified malaria infection. Participants were interviewed face-to-face using a standard questionnaire to identify malaria risk factors. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CI for risk factors after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics.

Results

Among the cases, malaria infection varied by species: 66.7% were positive for Plasmodium falciparum, 29.6% for Plasmodium vivax, and 3.7% were diagnosed as mixed infection. Cases were less likely than controls to use treated nets (aOR = 0.31; 95% CI 0.12–0.80), work after dark (aOR = 2.93; 95% CI 1.35, 6.34), bath in a stream after dark (aOR = 2.44; 95% CI 1.02–5.88), and collect water after dark (aOR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.02–3.90).

Conclusions

As Vietnam moves toward malaria elimination, these findings can inform behaviour change communication and malaria prevention strategies, incorporating the risk of after-dark and water-related activities, in this priority and difficult-to-access population group.

Malaria epidemiology and comparative reliability of diagnostic tools in Bannu; an endemic malaria focus in south of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

The present study was aimed at elucidation of malaria epidemiology and comparing performance of several diagnostic procedures in Bannu, a highly endemic district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Dried blood spots were collected from patients suspected of malaria visiting a hospital and two private laboratories in district Bannu and processed for species-specific PCR (rRNA). Patients were also screened for malaria through microscopy and RDT. A well-structured questionnaire was used to collect patient information to assess risk factors for malaria. Of 2033 individuals recruited, 21.1% (N = 429) were positive for malaria by at least one method. Overall, positivity detected by PCR was 30.5% (95/311) followed by 17.7% by microscopy (359/2033) and 16.4% by RDT (266/1618). Plasmodium vivax (16.9%, N = 343) was detected as the dominant species followed by Plasmodium falciparum (2.3%, N = 47) and mixed infections (1.2%, N = 39). Microscopy and RDT (Cohen's kappa k = 0.968, p = <0.0001, McNemar test p = 0.069) displayed significant agreement with each other. Satisfactory health, sleeping indoors, presence of health-care facility in vicinity (at an accessible range from home), living in upper middle class and in concrete houses significantly reduced malaria risk; whereas, low literacy level, presence of domestic animals indoors and malaria diagnosis recommended by clinician increased the disease risk. Overall, findings from the study provide reasonable basis for use of RDT as a cost-effective screening tool in field and for clinicians who can proceed with timely treatment of malaria patients. Appropriate management of identified risk factors could contribute to reduction of malaria prevalence in Bannu and its peripheries.

Decision Making within the Built Environment as a Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Malaria and Other Vector-Borne Diseases

Although significant efforts have been made to combat the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), they still account for more than 17% of all infectious diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were 216 million estimated cases in 2016. The efforts that resulted in these positive outcomes lack long-term financial sustainability because of the significant amount of funding involved. There is, therefore, a need for more cost-effective intervention. The authors contend that design decisions in the built environment can have a positive impact on the efforts directed at mitigating the risk of malaria in a more cost-effective manner. It is known that the built environment, through features such as openings, can propagate the spread of malaria. There have been some significant efforts directed at addressing this risk. This notwithstanding, an extensive review of closely related work established that built environment professionals have limited access to information on specific ways through which their design decisions can contribute to mitigating the risk of malaria. The validity of this hypothesis was tested through evaluating the opportunities for synergies in selected parts of East Africa. Secondary data derived from relevant urban health journals as well as repositories curated by leading health agencies such as WHO were synthesized and analyzed using a web of causation approach. The outcome of the analysis is a schema of primary and secondary source (risk) factors. The use of the web of causation approach revealed the existing factor-to-factor interactions that could have a reinforcing effect. This information was used to identify the critical linkages and interdependencies across different factors. The outcome of the analysis was mapped against risk factors that can be linked to decisions made during the six primary phases of the construction life cycle: Preliminary phase, conceptual design, detailed design, construction, facilities management, and end of life/disuse. A conceptual architecture for a decision support framework has been proposed and will be developed into a prototype in subsequent efforts.

Malaria vector abundance is associated with house structures in Baringo County, Kenya

Malaria, a major cause of morbidity and mortality, is the most prevalent vector borne disease in Baringo County; a region which has varied house designs in arid and semi-arid areas. This study investigated the association between house structures and indoor-malaria vector abundance in Baringo County. The density of malaria vectors in houses with open eaves was higher than that for houses with closed eaves. Grass thatched roof houses had higher density of malaria vectors than corrugated iron sheet roofs. Similarly, mud walled houses had higher vector density than other wall types. Houses in the riverine zone were significantly associated with malaria vector abundance (p<0.000) possibly due to more varied house structures. In Kamnarok village within riverine zone, a house made of grass thatched roof and mud wall but raised on stilts with domestic animals (sheep/goats) kept at the lower level had lower mosquito density (5.8 per collection) than ordinary houses made of same materials but at ground level (30.5 mosquitoes per collection), suggestive of a change in behavior of mosquito feeding and resting. House modifications such as screening of eaves, improvement of construction material and building stilted houses can be incorporated in the integrated vector management (IVM) strategy to complement insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spray to reduce indoor malaria vector density.

Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission

Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.

Malaria Transmission and Prospects for Malaria Eradication: The Role of the Environment

Environmental factors affect the transmission intensity, seasonality, and geographical distribution of malaria, and together with the vector, the human, and the parasite compose the malaria system. Strategies that alter the environment are among the oldest interventions for malaria control, but currently are not the most prominent despite historical evidence of their effectiveness. The importance of environmental factors, the role they play considering the current goals of malaria eradication, the different strategies that can be adopted, and the current challenges for their implementation are discussed. As malaria elimination/eradication takes a prominent place in the health agenda, an integrated action, addressing all elements of the malaria system, which contributes to improved knowledge and to building local capacity and that brings about positive effects to the health of the local population has the greatest chance to produce fast, effective, and sustainable results.

3D mosquito screens to create window double screen traps for mosquito control

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes are vectors for many diseases such as malaria. Insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying of insecticides are the principal malaria vector control tools used to prevent malaria in the tropics. Other interventions aim at reducing man-vector contact. For example, house screening provides additive or synergistic effects to other implemented measures. We used commercial screen materials made of polyester, polyethylene or polypropylene to design novel mosquito screens that provide remarkable additional benefits to those commonly used in house screening. The novel design is based on a double screen setup made of a screen with 3D geometric structures parallel to a commercial mosquito screen creating a trap between the two screens. Owing to the design of the 3D screen, mosquitoes can penetrate the 3D screen from one side but cannot return through the other side, making it a unidirectional mosquito screen. Therefore, the mosquitoes are trapped inside the double screen system. The permissiveness of both sides of the 3D screens for mosquitoes to pass through was tested in a wind tunnel using the insectary strain of Anopheles stephensi.

RESULTS

Among twenty-five tested 3D screen designs, three designs from the cone, prism, or cylinder design groups were the most efficient in acting as unidirectional mosquito screens. The three cone-, prism-, and cylinder-based screens allowed, on average, 92, 75 and 64% of Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes released into the wind tunnel to penetrate the permissive side and 0, 0 and 6% of mosquitoes to escape through the non-permissive side, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A cone-based 3D screen fulfilled the study objective. It allowed capturing 92% of mosquitoes within the double screen setup inside the wind tunnel and blocked 100% from escaping. Thus, the cone-based screen effectively acted as a unidirectional mosquito screen. This 3D screen-based trap design could therefore be used in house screening as a means of avoiding infective bites and reducing mosquito population size.

Explaining variation in adult Anopheles indoor resting abundance: the relative effects of larval habitat proximity and insecticide-treated bed net use

BACKGROUND

Spatial determinants of malaria risk within communities are associated with heterogeneity of exposure to vector mosquitoes. The abundance of adult malaria vectors inside people's houses, where most transmission takes place, should be associated with several factors: proximity of houses to larval habitats, structural characteristics of houses, indoor use of vector control tools containing insecticides, and human behavioural and environmental factors in and near houses. While most previous studies have assessed the association of larval habitat proximity in landscapes with relatively low densities of larval habitats, in this study these relationships were analysed in a region of rural, lowland western Kenya with high larval habitat density.

METHODS

525 houses were sampled for indoor-resting mosquitoes across an 8 by 8 km study area using the pyrethrum spray catch method. A predictive model of larval habitat location in this landscape, previously verified, provided derivations of indices of larval habitat proximity to houses. Using geostatistical regression models, the association of larval habitat proximity, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) use, house structural characteristics (wall type, roof type), and peridomestic variables (cooking in the house, cattle near the house, number of people sleeping in the house) with mosquito abundance in houses was quantified.

RESULTS

Vector abundance was low (mean, 1.1 adult Anopheles per house). Proximity of larval habitats was a strong predictor of Anopheles abundance. Houses without an LLIN had more female Anopheles gambiae s.s., Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus than houses where some people used an LLIN (rate ratios, 95% CI 0.87, 0.85-0.89; 0.84, 0.82-0.86; 0.38, 0.37-0.40) and houses where everyone used an LLIN (RR, 95% CI 0.49, 0.48-0.50; 0.39, 0.39-0.40; 0.60, 0.58-0.61). Cooking in the house also reduced Anopheles abundance across all species. The number of people sleeping in the house, presence of cattle near the house, and house structure modulated Anopheles abundance, but the effect varied with Anopheles species and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in the abundance of indoor-resting Anopheles in rural houses of western Kenya varies with clearly identifiable factors. Results suggest that LLIN use continues to function in reducing vector abundance, and that larval source management in this region could lead to further reductions in malaria risk by reducing the amount of an obligatory resource for mosquitoes near people's homes.

Defining micro-epidemiology for malaria elimination: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Malaria risk can vary markedly between households in the same village, or between villages, but the determinants of this “micro-epidemiological” variation in malaria risk remain poorly understood. This study aimed to identify factors that explain fine-scale variation in malaria risk across settings and improve definitions and methods for malaria micro-epidemiology.

Methods

A systematic review of studies that examined risk factors for variation in malaria infection between individuals, households, clusters, hotspots, or villages in any malaria-endemic setting was conducted. Four databases were searched for studies published up until 6th October 2015. Crude and adjusted effect estimates for risk factors for malaria infection were combined in random effects meta-analyses. Bias was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale.

Results

From 743 retrieved records, 51 studies were selected, representing populations comprising over 160,000 individuals in 21 countries, in high- and low-endemicity settings. Sixty-five risk factors were identified and meta-analyses were conducted for 11 risk factors. Most studies focused on environmental factors, especially increasing distance from a breeding site (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86–0.92, 10 studies). Individual bed net use was protective (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52–0.77, 12 studies), but not household bed net ownership. Increasing household size (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.15, 4 studies) and household crowding (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.48–2.16, 4 studies) were associated with malaria infection. Health seeking behaviour, medical history and genetic traits were less frequently studied. Only six studies examined whether individual-level risk factors explained differences in malaria risk at village or hotspot level, and five studies reported different risk factors at different levels of analysis. The risk of bias varied from low to high in individual studies. Insufficient reporting and comparability of measurements limited the number of meta-analyses conducted.

Conclusions

Several variables associated with individual-level malaria infection were identified, but there was limited evidence that these factors explain variation in malaria risk at village or hotspot level. Social, population and other factors may confound estimates of environmental risk factors, yet these variables are not included in many studies. A structured framework of malaria risk factors is proposed to improve study design and quality of evidence in future micro-epidemiological studies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1792-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Geographical patterns of malaria transmission based on serological markers for falciparum and vivax malaria in Ratanakiri, Cambodia

Background

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, especially in low endemic countries, such as Cambodia. This results in geographical clusters of residual transmission in the dry, low transmission season, which can fuel the transmission to wider areas or populations during the wet season. A better understanding of spatial clustering of malaria can lead to a more efficient, targeted strategy to reduce malaria transmission. This study aims to evaluate the potential of the use of serological markers to define spatial patterns in malaria exposure.

Methods

Blood samples collected in a community-based randomized trial performed in 98 high endemic communities in Ratanakiri province, north-eastern Cambodia, were screened with a multiplex serological assay for five serological markers (three Plasmodium falciparum and two Plasmodium vivax). The antibody half-lives range from approximately six months until more than two years. Geographical heterogeneity in malaria transmission was examined using a spatial scan statistic on serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rate data. Furthermore, to identify behavioural patterns or intrinsic factors associated with malaria exposure (antibody levels), risk factor analyses were performed by using multivariable random effect logistic regression models. The serological outcomes were then compared to PCR prevalence and malaria incidence data.

Results

A total of 6502 samples from two surveys were screened in an area where the average parasite prevalence estimated by PCR among the selected villages is 3.4 %. High-risk malaria pockets were observed adjacent to the ‘Tonle San River’ and neighbouring Vietnam for all three sets of data (serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rates). The main risk factors for all P. falciparum antigens and P. vivax MSP1.19 are age, ethnicity and staying overnight at the plot hut.

Conclusion

It is possible to identify similar malaria pockets of higher malaria transmission together with the potential risk factors by using serology instead of PCR prevalence or malaria incidence data. In north-eastern Cambodia, the serological markers show that malaria transmission occurs mainly in adults staying overnight in plot huts in the field. Pf.GLURP.R2 showed a shrinking pocket of malaria transmission over time, and Pf.MSP1.19, CSP, PvAMA1 were also informative for current infection to a lesser extent. Therefore, serology could contribute in future research. However, further in-depth research in selecting the best combination of antigens is required.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1558-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Factors associated with high heterogeneity of malaria at fine spatial scale in the Western Kenyan highlands

Background

The East African highlands are fringe regions between stable and unstable malaria transmission. What factors contribute to the heterogeneity of malaria exposure on different spatial scales within larger foci has not been extensively studied. In a comprehensive, community-based cross-sectional survey an attempt was made to identify factors that drive the macro- and micro epidemiology of malaria in a fringe region using parasitological and serological outcomes.

Methods

A large cross-sectional survey including 17,503 individuals was conducted across all age groups in a 100 km² area in the Western Kenyan highlands of Rachuonyo South district. Households were geo-located and prevalence of malaria parasites and malaria-specific antibodies were determined by PCR and ELISA. Household and individual risk-factors were recorded. Geographical characteristics of the study area were digitally derived using high-resolution satellite images.

Results

Malaria antibody prevalence strongly related to altitude (1350–1600 m, p < 0.001). A strong negative association with increasing altitude and PCR parasite prevalence was found. Parasite carriage was detected at all altitudes and in all age groups; 93.2 % (2481/2663) of malaria infections were apparently asymptomatic. Malaria parasite prevalence was associated with age, bed net use, house construction features, altitude and topographical wetness index. Antibody prevalence was associated with all these factors and distance to the nearest water body.

Conclusion

Altitude was a major driver of malaria transmission in this study area, even across narrow altitude bands. The large proportion of asymptomatic parasite carriers at all altitudes and the age-dependent acquisition of malaria antibodies indicate stable malaria transmission; the strong correlation between current parasite carriage and serological markers of malaria exposure indicate temporal stability of spatially heterogeneous transmission.

Socio-economic & household risk factors of malaria in tribal areas of Madhya Pradesh, central India

Background & objectives:

Malaria is a major public health problem in many States of the country, particularly, in Madhya Pradesh where both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum are endemic. Although many studies have been conducted to investigate risk factors for malaria, but only a few have examined household and socio-economic risk factors. The present study was, therefore, undertaken to explore the relationship of different socio-demographic, socio-economic and behavioural risk factors with malaria prevalence in tribal areas of Madhya Pradesh, India.

Methods:

This study was undertaken in all 62 villages of Bargi Primary Health Centre from May 2005 to June 2008. These villages comprised 7117 households with an average family size of five members. Fortnightly fever surveys were conducted in all villages to assess prevalence of malaria infection in the community. The distinct univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted on the data set.

Results:

The important socio-demographic risk factors like age of household head, social group, occupation and family size; socio-economic factors like type of walls of house, place of drinking water source, irrigated land, cash crop; and behavioural variables like place of sleeping, use of bed nets, etc. were found significantly associated with malaria in univariate analyses. In multivariate analyses only social groups, family size, type of walls of house, and place of sleeping had strong significant association with prevalence of malaria.

Interpretation & conclusions:

The study shows that in tribal areas where people are living in poor quality of houses with no proper use of preventive measures, malaria is firmly established. We conclude that community based interventions which bring improvement in standard of living, access to healthcare facilities and health awareness, will have a significant impact on malaria prevention in these areas.

Urban and architectural risk factors for malaria in indigenous Amazonian settlements in Brazil: a typological analysis

In the Amazon, m alaria is highly endemic in indigenous populations, which are often considered one of the last barriers to malaria elimination due to geographic isolation. Although the improvement of housing conditions is a good strategy towards the control and prevention of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, this preventive practice has been barely undertaken in Latin America. An analysis of the architectural and urban features of indigenous Amazonian populations is essential to define and adapt these vector control measures. A total of 32 villages of 29 different ethnicities were studied and mapped by reviewing literature and visual information, and using a geographic information system. The most important architectural and urban characteristics influencing malaria were analysed according to the following categories: number of households and dimensions, supporting area, openings, materials, lifespan and location. Housing typologies found were classified within each of these variables. The results of this typological analysis included an easy-to-handle working template and revealing of features that benefit or hamper the presence of malaria vectors in Amerindians communities. Among risk factors, presence of open eaves, permeable walls, open-side constructions, large number of sleepers indoors, temporary-ephemeral houses, linear villages along stream banks, houseboats villages, poor urban drainage and villages surrounded by anthropogenic environments were highlighted. Indigenous settlements very permissive for anophelines were identified in ethnic groups, such as the Yanomami, Palikur, Paumari, Waimiri-Atroari and Wajãpi. Positive features were also recognized, including opaque and closed houses, large radial villages on bare soil, highly elevated stilted houses and the fire indoors, found among the Yawalapiti, Ashaninka, and Gavião-Parkatejê tribes. However, as Amazonian indigenous settlement typologies vary greatly even among villages of the same ethnic group, it is imperative to undertake an individual study for each community. Using the working template in Amazonian settlements it is possible to obtain data that will help researchers not only understand how architectural and urban features affect transmission, but also define vector control measures easily applicable by health authorities and acceptable by these communities.

Malaria and the mobile and migrant population in Cambodia: a population movement framework to inform strategies for malaria control and elimination

BACKGROUND

The relationships between human population movement (HPM) and health are a concern at global level. In the case of malaria, those links are crucial in relation to the spread of drug resistant parasites and to the elimination of malaria in the Greater Mekong sub-Region (GMS) and beyond. The mobile and migrant populations (MMP) who are involved in forest related activities are both at high risk of being infected with malaria and at risk of receiving late and sub-standard treatment due to poor access to health services. In Cambodia, in 2012, the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) identified, as a key objective, the development of a specific strategy for MMPs in order to address these challenges. A population movement framework (PMF) for malaria was developed and operationalized in order to contribute to this strategy.

METHODS

A review of the published and unpublished literature was conducted. Based on a synthesis of the results, information was presented and discussed with experienced researchers and programme managers in the Cambodian NMCP and led to the development and refinement of a PMF for malaria. The framework was "tested" for face and content validity with national experts through a workshop approach.

RESULTS

In the literature, HPM has been described using various spatial and temporal dimensions both in the context of the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance, and in the context of malaria elimination and previous classifications have categorized MMPs in Cambodia and the GMS through using a number of different criteria. Building on these previous models, the PMF was developed and then refined and populated with in-depth information relevant to Cambodia collected from social science research and field experiences in Cambodia. The framework comprises of the PMF itself, MMP activity profiles and a Malaria Risk Index which is a summation of three related indices: a vulnerability index, an exposure index and an access index which allow a qualitative ranking of malaria risk in the MMP population. Application of currently available data to the framework illustrates that the highest risk population are those highly mobile populations engaged in forest work.

CONCLUSION

This paper describes the process of defining MMPs in Cambodia, identifying the different activities and related risks to appropriately target and tailor interventions to the highest risk groups. The framework has been used to develop more targeted behaviour change and outreach interventions for MMPs in Cambodia and its utility and effectiveness will be evaluated as part of those interventions.

Cross-border malaria: a major obstacle for malaria elimination

Movement of malaria across international borders poses a major obstacle to achieving malaria elimination in the 34 countries that have committed to this goal. In border areas, malaria prevalence is often higher than in other areas due to lower access to health services, treatment-seeking behaviour of marginalized populations that typically inhabit border areas, difficulties in deploying prevention programmes to hard-to-reach communities, often in difficult terrain, and constant movement of people across porous national boundaries. Malaria elimination in border areas will be challenging and key to addressing the challenges is strengthening of surveillance activities for rapid identification of any importation or reintroduction of malaria. This could involve taking advantage of technological advances, such as spatial decision support systems, which can be deployed to assist programme managers to carry out preventive and reactive measures, and mobile phone technology, which can be used to capture the movement of people in the border areas and likely sources of malaria importation. Additionally, joint collaboration in the prevention and control of cross-border malaria by neighbouring countries, and reinforcement of early diagnosis and prompt treatment are ways forward in addressing the problem of cross-border malaria.

Plasmodium vivax malaria at households: spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemicity urban area of the northwestern Peruvian coast

BACKGROUND

Peru has presented a decreasing malaria trend during the last decade, particularly in areas on northwestern coast; however, a limited number of cases continues to be reported yearly mainly in malaria hotspots.

METHODS

A two-phase study was conducted to identify spatial and temporal clusters of incident Plasmodium vivax malaria, as well as to determine risk factors associated with households (HH) presenting P. vivax malaria episodes in an urban area of the northwestern Peruvian Coast from June 2008 to May 2010. In the first stage, a full census of the study population was conducted, including geo-referencing of reported P. vivax episodes. In the second stage, a population-based case-control study allowed the identification of risk factors associated with HHs reporting episodes. A total of 117 case HHs with reported P. vivax and 117 control HHs without malaria episodes were assessed. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to interview the head of households and to collect data on HH location and structure, availability of public services, preventive malaria measures, family member with outdoor occupation (farmer, moto-taxi driver), and other HH characteristics. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine case-HH risk factors. SaTScan was used to detect spatial and temporal P. vivax malaria clusters.

RESULTS

The most likely spatial cluster of malaria incidence included 1,040 people (22.4% of total population) in 245 HHs (24.6% of total HHs) accounting for 283 malaria episodes (40.1% of total episodes) during the study period (RR = 2.3, p < 0.001). A temporal cluster was also identified from April 12, 2009 to July 4, 2009 accounting for 355 malaria episodes (50.4% of total episodes) (RR = 7.2, p = 0.001). Factors significantly associated with case HHs compared with control HHs were: proximity to water drain < 200 metres (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.0); HH size >5 individuals (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.2); lack of potable water (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.2); and having domestic and peridomestic animals (OR = 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3, 9.5).

CONCLUSION

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence is highly heterogeneous in space and time in the urban study area with important geographical and housing risk factors associated with symptomatic episodes.

Poor housing construction associated with increased malaria incidence in a cohort of young Ugandan children

Despite the use of accepted interventions to combat malaria, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and artemisinin-based combination therapy, malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. We investigated associations between household factors and malaria incidence in a cohort of children living in a highly endemic region of Uganda. Living in a modern house, defined as the use of non-earth floors, non-thatched roofs, and non-mud walls, was associated with approximately half malaria incidence compared with living in a traditional home (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.54, P = 0.001). Other factors found to be associated with a lower incidence of malaria included living in town versus rural setting; sleeping in a room with openings to the outside (windows, eaves, and airbricks); and having an older and more educated primary caregiver. This study adds to the growing body of evidence that improved house construction may be associated with a lower risk of malaria.

Baseline malaria vector transmission dynamics in communities in Ahafo mining area in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Malaria vector dynamics are relevant prior to commencement of mining activities. A baseline entomology survey was conducted in Asutifi and Tano (referred to as Ahafo) in the Brong-Ahafo geo-political region of Ghana during preparatory stages for mining by Newmont Ghana Gold Limited.

METHODS

Between November 2006 and August 2007, eight Centre for Disease Control light traps were set daily (Monday-Friday) to collect mosquitoes. Traps were hanged in rooms that were selected from a pool of 1,100 randomly selected houses. Types of materials used in construction of houses were recorded and mosquito prevention measures were assessed from occupants.

RESULTS

A total of 5,393 mosquitoes were caught that comprised Anopheles gambiae (64.8%), Anopheles funestus (4.2%), as well as Culicines, comprising of Culex (30.4%) and Aedes species (0.6%). The entomological inoculation rate in Asutifi (279 infective bites/person/month) and Tano (487 infective bites/person/month) demonstrate relatively high malaria transmission in Ahafo. The presence or absence of Anopheles vectors in rooms was influenced by the type of roofing material (OR 2.33, 95%CI: 1.29-4.22, p = 0.01) as well as the presence of eaves gaps (OR 1.80, 95%CI: 1.37-2.37, p < 0.01). It was also associated with bed net availability in the room (OR 1.39, 95%CI: 1.08-1.80, p = 0.01). Over 80% of the houses were roofed with corrugated zinc sheets. Over 60% of the houses in Ahafo had no eaves gaps to give access to mosquito entry and exit into rooms and mosquito bed net coverage was over 50%. Other measures used in preventing mosquito bites included; coil (22.1%), insecticide spray (9.4%), repellent cream (4.0%) and smoky fires (1.1%), contributed minimally to individual mosquito preventive measures in impact areas. Similarly, levels of protection; coil (16.9%), insecticide spray (2.8%) and repellent cream (0.3%) for the non-impact areas, depict low individual prevention measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The survey identified areas where intensified vector control activities would be beneficial. It also demonstrates that transmission in Asutifi and Tano is high even before the commencement of mining operations. This study serves as baseline information to assess impact of mining activities in relation to future vector control interventions.

Determinants of low socio-economic status and risk of Plasmodium vivax malaria infection in Panama (2009-2012): a case-control study

Background

Identification of risk factors is important for the establishment of malaria elimination programmes tailored to specific regions. Type of house construction had been associated with increasing risk of acquiring malaria. This study aimed at establishing the association between determinants of low socio-economic status (SES) and type of house construction with the likelihood of living in a Plasmodium vivax malarious corregimiento (smallest political division) in Panama during 2009–2012.

Methods

To determine the association between type-2 houses (build with deciduous materials) and other determinants of low SES, with living in a malarious corregimiento, this study analyzed demographic and housing census data (2010), and malaria incidence aggregated at the corregimiento level (2009–2012), using a Spearman’s non-parametric correlation test to explore for associations, followed by a case–control study and a reduced multivariate logistic regression approach for confirmation.

Results

A descriptive temporal and spatial analysis indicated that P. vivax in Panama was associated with Amerindian reservations. Moreover, this study demonstrated that a strong correlation (deleterious effect) existed between living in a malarious corregimiento and being exposed to a type-2 house (OR = > 1.0) (p < 0.001), while, it showed an inverse correlation for exposure to type-1 houses (protective effect) (build with permanent materials) (OR = < 1.0) (p < 0.001). In the same way, a significant association between exposure to type-2 houses and the outcome of living in a malarious corregimiento was found using a case–control study approach (Chi² test = p < 0.001), that was confirmed applying a reduced multivariate logistic regression fitted model.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that living in a P. vivax malarious corregimiento in Panama during 2009–2012 was strongly correlated with those corregimientos having a high proportion of type-2 houses. A multivariate logistic regression approach at the house and corregimiento level indicated a strong association of type-2 houses, dirt floors and illiteracy with the likelihood of living in a malarious corregimiento. It is expected that these findings will help implement a multi-sectorial approach for the elimination of malaria in poor areas of Panama where malaria is endemic, which emphasizes house improvements such as mosquito-proofing and socio-economic development.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-014-0529-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Distance to Anopheles sundaicus larval habitats dominant among risk factors for parasitemia in meso-endemic Southwest Sumba, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

The decline in intensity of malaria transmission in many areas now emphasizes greater importance of understanding the epidemiology of low to moderate transmission settings. Marked heterogeneity in infection risk within these populations creates opportunities to understand transmission and guide resource allocation to greater impact.

METHODS

In this study, we examined spatial patterns of malaria transmission in a hypo- to meso-endemic area of eastern Indonesia using malaria prevalence data collected from a cross-sectional socio-demographic and parasitological survey conducted from August to November 2010. An entomological survey performed in parallel, identified, mapped, and monitored local anopheline larval habitats.

RESULTS

A single spatial cluster of higher malaria prevalence was detected during the study period (relative risk=2.13; log likelihood ratio=20.7; P<0.001). In hierarchical multivariate regression models, risk of parasitemia was inversely correlated with distance to five Anopheles sundaicus known larval habitats [odds ratio (OR)=0.21; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.14-0.32; P<0.001], which were located in a geographically restricted band adjacent to the coastline. Increasing distance from these sites predicted increased hemoglobin level across age strata after adjusting for confounders (OR=1.6; 95% CI=1.30-1.98; P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Significant clustering of malaria parasitemia in close proximity to very specific and relatively few An. sundaicus larval habitats has direct implications for local control strategy, policy, and practice. These findings suggest that larval source management could achieve profound if not complete impact in this region.

The independent effect of living in malaria hotspots on future malaria infection: an observational study from Misungwi, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of malaria infection.

METHODS

Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a multivariable model.

RESULTS

This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an independent predictor of malaria infection in the future.

CONCLUSION

It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria elimination.

Co-infection of long-term carriers of Plasmodium falciparum with Schistosoma haematobium enhances protection from febrile malaria: a prospective cohort study in Mali

Background

Malaria and schistosomiasis often overlap in tropical and subtropical countries and impose tremendous disease burdens; however, the extent to which schistosomiasis modifies the risk of febrile malaria remains unclear.

Methods

We evaluated the effect of baseline S. haematobium mono-infection, baseline P. falciparum mono-infection, and co-infection with both parasites on the risk of febrile malaria in a prospective cohort study of 616 children and adults living in Kalifabougou, Mali. Individuals with S. haematobium were treated with praziquantel within 6 weeks of enrollment. Malaria episodes were detected by weekly physical examination and self-referral for 7 months. The primary outcome was time to first or only malaria episode defined as fever (≥37.5°C) and parasitemia (≥2500 asexual parasites/µl). Secondary definitions of malaria using different parasite densities were also explored.

Results

After adjusting for age, anemia status, sickle cell trait, distance from home to river, residence within a cluster of high S. haematobium transmission, and housing type, baseline P. falciparum mono-infection (n = 254) and co-infection (n = 39) were significantly associated with protection from febrile malaria by Cox regression (hazard ratios 0.71 and 0.44; P = 0.01 and 0.02; reference group: uninfected at baseline). Baseline S. haematobium mono-infection (n = 23) did not associate with malaria protection in the adjusted analysis, but this may be due to lack of statistical power. Anemia significantly interacted with co-infection (P = 0.009), and the malaria-protective effect of co-infection was strongest in non-anemic individuals. Co-infection was an independent negative predictor of lower parasite density at the first febrile malaria episode.

Conclusions

Co-infection with S. haematobium and P. falciparum is significantly associated with reduced risk of febrile malaria in long-term asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum. Future studies are needed to determine whether co-infection induces immunomodulatory mechanisms that protect against febrile malaria or whether genetic, behavioral, or environmental factors not accounted for here explain these findings.

The parasitic diseases malaria and schistosomiasis are tremendous public health burdens, each affecting over 200 million people worldwide with substantial geographic overlap in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding how schistosomiasis influences the human immune response to Plasmodium, the agent of malaria, can be important for developing effective malaria vaccines. Past studies have tried to determine if infection with Schistosoma haematobium, which causes urinary schistosomiasis, affects the number of febrile attacks from malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum in communities where the diseases overlap, but the findings have been inconsistent. Here, we examined 616 healthy people from a village in Mali for symptomless infections with S. haematobium and treated those with infections. We then followed them over a single malaria-transmission season of 7 months during which we diagnosed and treated all febrile malaria attacks. After the season, we examined archived blood collected at enrollment to look for occult P. falciparum infection. The study revealed that people who were infected with both parasites at the beginning of the season were better protected from the malaria attacks than those who were uninfected or infected with either parasite alone. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and to determine the biological basis for this phenomenon.

Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures

Background

Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission.

Methods

We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and accumulated precipitation to model larval habitat locations in a region of western Kenya through two methods: logistic regression and random forest. Additionally, we used two separate data sets to account for variation in habitat locations across space and over time.

Results

Larval habitats were more likely to be present in locations with a lower slope to contributing area ratio (i.e. TWI), closer to streams, with agricultural land use relative to nonagricultural land use, and in friable clay/sandy clay loam soil and firm, silty clay/clay soil relative to friable clay soil. The probability of larval habitat presence increased with increasing accumulated precipitation. The random forest models were more accurate than the logistic regression models, especially when accumulated precipitation was included to account for seasonal differences in precipitation. The most accurate models for the two data sets had area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.864 and 0.871, respectively. TWI, distance to the nearest stream, and precipitation had the greatest mean decrease in Gini impurity criteria in these models.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the usefulness of random forest models for larval malaria vector habitat modeling. TWI and distance to the nearest stream were the two most important landscape variables in these models. Including accumulated precipitation in our models improved the accuracy of larval habitat location predictions by accounting for seasonal variation in the precipitation. Finally, the sampling strategy employed here for model parameterization could serve as a framework for creating predictive larval habitat models to assist in larval control efforts.

Hot spot or not: a comparison of spatial statistical methods to predict prospective malaria infections

Background

Within affected communities, Plasmodium falciparum infections may be skewed in distribution such that single or small clusters of households consistently harbour a disproportionate number of infected individuals throughout the year. Identifying these hotspots of malaria transmission would permit targeting of interventions and a more rapid reduction in malaria burden across the whole community. This study set out to compare different statistical methods of hotspot detection (SaTScan, kernel smoothing, weighted local prevalence) using different indicators (PCR positivity, AMA-1 and MSP-1 antibodies) for prediction of infection the following year.

Methods

Two full surveys of four villages in Mwanza, Tanzania were completed over consecutive years, 2010-2011. In both surveys, infection was assessed using nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). In addition in 2010, serologic markers (AMA-1 and MSP-1₁₉ antibodies) of exposure were assessed. Baseline clustering of infection and serological markers were assessed using three geospatial methods: spatial scan statistics, kernel analysis and weighted local prevalence analysis. Methods were compared in their ability to predict infection in the second year of the study using random effects logistic regression models, and comparisons of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for each model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect of varying radius size for the kernel and weighted local prevalence methods and maximum population size for the spatial scan statistic.

Results

Guided by AUC values, the kernel method and spatial scan statistics appeared to be more predictive of infection in the following year. Hotspots of PCR-detected infection and seropositivity to AMA-1 were predictive of subsequent infection. For the kernel method, a 1 km window was optimal. Similarly, allowing hotspots to contain up to 50% of the population was a better predictor of infection in the second year using spatial scan statistics than smaller maximum population sizes.

Conclusions

Clusters of AMA-1 seroprevalence or parasite prevalence that are predictive of infection a year later can be identified using geospatial models. Kernel smoothing using a 1 km window and spatial scan statistics both provided accurate prediction of future infection.

Spatial distribution of the sibling species of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (Diptera: Culicidae) and malaria prevalence in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

Background

Much of the confusing ecophenotypic plasticity of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato is attributable to the differential biological traits of the sibling species, with their heterogeneous geographical distribution, behavioral dissimilarities and divergent population dynamics. These differences are critical to their roles in malaria transmission. Studies were, therefore, undertaken on the spatial distribution of these species and malaria prevalence rates in Bayelsa State, September, 2008-August 2010.

Methods

Mosquito sampling was in 7 towns/villages in 7 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 3 eco-vegetational zones: Fresh Water Swamp Forest (FWSF): Sagbama, Yenagoa, Kolokuma-Opokuma LGAs; Brackish Water Swamp Forest (BWSF): Ogbia, Ekeremor, Southern Ijaw LGAs; Mangrove Water Forest (MWF): Nembe LGA. Adults were collected twice quarterly by the Pyrethrum Spray Catch (PSC) technique. Anopheles was separated morphologically and the sibling species PCR- identified. Simultaneously, malaria prevalence rates were calculated from data obtained by the examination of blood smears from consenting individuals at hospitals/clinics.

Results

An. gambiae s.s. was dominant across the 3-eco-vegetational zones. Spatial distribution analyses by cell count and nearest neighbor techniques indicated a tendency to clustering of species. An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis clustered in Ekeremor LGA while these 2 species and An. melas aggregated in Nembe. The gonotrophic (physiological) status examination revealed that 34.3, 23.5, 23.1 and 18.4% of the population were fed, unfed, gravid and half gravid respectively. The highest malaria prevalence rates were obtained at Kolokuma-Opokuma and Nembe LGAs. Variation in prevalence rates among LGAs was significant (t = 5.976, df = 6, p-value = 0.002, p < 0.05). The highest prevalence rate was in the age group, 30-39 yrs, while the lowest prevalence was in the 0-9 yrs group.

Conclusion

High malaria prevalence rates were associated with An. gambiae s.s. either in allopatry or sympatry across eco-vegetational zones. In areas where the sibling species clustered, they probably formed nidi for transmission. Socio-economic conditions might have contributed to reduced prevalence in Yenagoa, State Capital.

Malaria risk factors in Butajira area, south-central Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis

Background

The highlands of Ethiopia, situated between 1,500 and 2,500 m above sea level, experienced severe malaria epidemics. Despite the intensive control attempts, underway since 2005 and followed by an initial decline, the disease remained a major public health concern. The aim of this study was to identify malaria risk factors in highland-fringe south-central Ethiopia.

Methods

This study was conducted in six rural kebeles of Butajira area located 130 km south of Addis Ababa, which are part of demographic surveillance site in Meskan and Mareko Districts, Ethiopia. Using a multistage sampling technique 750 households was sampled to obtain the 3,398 people, the estimated sample size for this study. Six repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted from October 2008 to June 2010. Multilevel, mixed-effects logistic regression models fitted to Plasmodium infection status (positive or negative) and six variables. Both fixed- and random-effects differences in malaria infection were estimated using median odds ratio and interval odds ratio 80%. The odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to estimate the strength of association.

Results

Overall, 19,207 individuals were sampled in six surveys (median and inter-quartile range value three). Six of the five variables had about two-fold to eight-fold increase in prevalence of malaria. Furthermore, among these variables, October-November survey seasons of both during 2008 and 2009 were strongly associated with increased prevalence of malaria infection. Children aged below five years (adjusted OR= 3.62) and children aged five to nine years (adj. OR= 3.39), low altitude (adj. OR= 5.22), mid-level altitude (adj. OR= 3.80), houses with holes (adj. OR= 1.59), survey seasons such as October-November 2008 (adj. OR= 7.84), January-February 2009 (adj. OR= 2.33), June-July 2009 (adj. OR=3.83), October-November 2009 (adj. OR= 7.71), and January-February 2010 (adj. OR= 3.05) were associated with increased malaria infection.

The estimates of cluster variances revealed differences in malaria infection. The village-level intercept variance for the individual-level predictor (0.71 [95% CI: 0.28-1.82]; SE=0.34) and final (0.034, [95% CI: 0.002-0.615]; SE=0.05) were lower than that of empty (0.80, [95% CI: 0.32-2.01]; SE=0.21).

Conclusion

Malaria control efforts in highland fringes must prioritize children below ten years in designing transmission reduction of malaria elimination strategy.

Epidemiology of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infection: implications for detection of hotspots with imperfect diagnostics

Background

At the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density.

Methods

Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA).

Results

Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated.

Conclusion

The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings.

Risk factors for mosquito house entry in the Lao PDR

Background

Construction of the Nam Theun 2 hydroelectric project and flooding of a 450 km² area of mountain plateau in south-central Lao PDR resulted in the resettlement of 6,300 people to newly built homes. We examined whether new houses would have altered risk of house entry by mosquitoes compared with traditional homes built from poorer construction materials.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Surveys were carried out in the Nam Theun 2 resettlement area and a nearby traditional rice farming area in 2010. Mosquitoes were sampled in bedrooms using CDC light traps in 96 resettlement houses and 96 traditional houses and potential risk factors for mosquito house entry were recorded. Risk of mosquito house entry was more than twice as high in traditional bamboo houses compared with those newly constructed from wood (Putative Japanese Encephalitis (JE) vector incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 2.26, 95% CI 1.38–3.70, P = 0.001; Anopheline IRR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.30–4.23, P = 0.005). Anophelines were more common in homes with cattle compared against those without (IRR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.29–4.17, P = 0.005).Wood smoke from cooking fires located under the house or indoors was found to be protective against house entry by both groups of mosquito, compared with cooking in a separate room beside the house (Putative JE vector IRR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.26–0.73, P = 0.002; Anopheline IRR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.10–0.51, P<0.001).

Conclusions/Significance

Construction of modern wooden homes should help reduce human-mosquito contact in the Lao PDR. Reduced mosquito contact rates could lead to reduced transmission of diseases such as JE and malaria. Cattle ownership was associated with increased anopheline house entry, so zooprophylaxis for malaria control is not recommended in this area. Whilst wood smoke was protective against putative JE vector and anopheline house entry we do not recommend indoor cooking since smoke inhalation can enhance respiratory disease.

Reactive case detection for malaria elimination: real-life experience from an ongoing program in Swaziland

As countries move towards malaria elimination, methods to identify infections among populations who do not seek treatment are required. Reactive case detection, whereby individuals living in close proximity to passively detected cases are screened and treated, is one approach being used by a number of countries including Swaziland. An outstanding issue is establishing the epidemiologically and operationally optimal screening radius around each passively detected index case. Using data collected between December 2009 and June 2012 from reactive case detection (RACD) activities in Swaziland, we evaluated the effect of screening radius and other risk factors on the probability of detecting cases by reactive case detection. Using satellite imagery, we also evaluated the household coverage achieved during reactive case detection. Over the study period, 250 cases triggered RACD, which identified a further 74 cases, showing the value of RACD over passive surveillance alone. Results suggest that the odds of detecting a case within the household of the index case were significantly higher than in neighbouring households (odds ratio (OR) 13, 95% CI 3.1–54.4). Furthermore, cases were more likely to be detected when RACD was conducted within a week of the index presenting at a health facility (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.1–66.4) and if the index household had not been sprayed with insecticide (OR sprayed vs not sprayed 0.11, 95% CI 0.03–0.46). The large number of households missed during RACD indicates that a 1 km screening radius may be impractical in such resource limited settings such as Swaziland. Future RACD in Swaziland could be made more effective by achieving high coverage amongst individuals located near to index cases and in areas where spraying has not been conducted. As well as allowing the programme to implement RACD more rapidly, this would help to more precisely define the optimal screening radius.

Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria within a transmission season in Bandiagara, Mali

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneous patterns of malaria transmission are thought to be driven by factors including host genetics, distance to mosquito breeding sites, housing construction, and socio-behavioural characteristics. Evaluation of local transmission epidemiology to characterize malaria risk is essential for planning malaria control and elimination programmes. The use of geographical information systems (GIS) techniques has been a major asset to this approach. To assess time and space distribution of malaria disease in Bandiagara, Mali, within a transmission season, data were used from an ongoing malaria incidence study that enrolled 300 participants aged under six years old".

METHODS

Children's households were georeferenced using a handheld global position system. Clinical malaria was defined as a positive blood slide for Plasmodium falciparum asexual stages associated with at least one of the following signs: headache, body aches, fever, chills and weakness. Daily rainfall was measured at the local weather station.Landscape features of Bandiagara were obtained from satellite images and field survey. QGIS™ software was used to map malaria cases, affected and non-affected children, and the number of malaria episodes per child in each block of Bandiagara. Clusters of high or low risk were identified under SaTScan(®) software according to a Bernoulli model.

RESULTS

From June 2009 to May 2010, 296 clinical malaria cases were recorded. Though clearly temporally related to the rains, Plasmodium falciparum occurrence persisted late in the dry season. Two "hot spots" of malaria transmission also found, notably along the Yamé River, characterized by higher than expected numbers of malaria cases, and high numbers of clinical episodes per child. Conversely, the north-eastern sector of the town had fewer cases despite its proximity to a large body of standing water which was mosquito habitat.

CONCLUSION

These results confirm the existence of a marked spatial heterogeneity of malaria transmission in Bandiagara, providing support for implementation of targeted interventions.

Plasmodium vivax: clinical spectrum, risk factors and pathogenesis

Vivax malaria was historically described as 'benign tertian malaria' because individual clinical episodes were less likely to cause severe illness than Plasmodium falciparum. Despite this, Plasmodium vivax was, and remains, responsible for major morbidity and significant mortality in vivax-endemic areas. Single infections causing febrile illness in otherwise healthy individuals rarely progress to severe disease. Nevertheless, in the presence of co-morbidities, P. vivax can cause severe illness and fatal outcomes. Recurrent or chronic infections in endemic areas can cause severe anaemia and malnutrition, particularly in early childhood. Other severe manifestations include acute lung injury, acute kidney injury and uncommonly, coma. Multiorgan failure and shock are described but further studies are needed to investigate the role of bacterial and other co-infections in these syndromes. In pregnancy, P. vivax infection can cause maternal anaemia, miscarriage, low birth weight and congenital malaria. Compared to P. falciparum, P. vivax has a greater capacity to elicit an inflammatory response, resulting in a lower pyrogenic threshold. Conversely, cytoadherence of P. vivax to endothelial cells is less frequent and parasite sequestration is not thought to be a significant cause of severe illness in vivax malaria. With a predilection for young red cells, P. vivax does not result in the high parasite biomass associated with severe disease in P. falciparum, but a four to fivefold greater removal of uninfected red cells from the circulation relative to P. falciparum is associated with a similar risk of severe anaemia. Mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of severe vivax syndromes remain incompletely understood.

The impact of hotspot-targeted interventions on malaria transmission: study protocol for a cluster-randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous in most settings, resulting in the formation of recognizable malaria hotspots. Targeting these hotspots might represent a highly efficacious way of controlling or eliminating malaria if the hotspots fuel malaria transmission to the wider community.

METHODS/DESIGN

Hotspots of malaria will be determined based on spatial patterns in age-adjusted prevalence and density of antibodies against malaria antigens apical membrane antigen-1 and merozoite surface protein-1. The community effect of interventions targeted at these hotspots will be determined. The intervention will comprise larviciding, focal screening and treatment of the human population, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying. The impact of the intervention will be determined inside and up to 500 m outside the targeted hotspots by PCR-based parasite prevalence in cross-sectional surveys, malaria morbidity by passive case detection in selected facilities and entomological monitoring of larval and adult Anopheles populations.

DISCUSSION

This study aims to provide direct evidence for a community effect of hotspot-targeted interventions. The trial is powered to detect large effects on malaria transmission in the context of ongoing malaria interventions. Follow-up studies will be needed to determine the effect of individual components of the interventions and the cost-effectiveness of a hotspot-targeted approach, where savings made by reducing the number of compounds that need to receive interventions should outweigh the costs of hotspot-detection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01575613. The protocol was registered online on 20 March 2012; the first community was randomized on 26 March 2012.

Geographic coincidence of increased malaria transmission hazard and vulnerability occurring at the periphery of two Tanzanian villages

BACKGROUND

The goal of malaria elimination necessitates an improved understanding of any fine-scale geographic variations in transmission risk so that complementary vector control tools can be integrated into current vector control programmes as supplementary measures that are spatially targeted to maximize impact upon residual transmission. This study examines the distribution of host-seeking malaria vectors at households within two villages in rural Tanzania.

METHODS

Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled from 72 randomly selected households in two villages on a monthly basis throughout 2008 using CDC light-traps placed beside occupied nets. Spatial autocorrelation in the dataset was examined using the Moran's I statistic and the location of any clusters was identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Statistical associations between the household characteristics and clusters of mosquitoes were assessed using a generalized linear model for each species.

RESULTS

For both Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and Anopheles funestus, the density of host-seeking females was spatially autocorrelated, or clustered. For both species, houses with low densities were clustered in the semi-urban village centre while houses with high densities were clustered in the periphery of the villages. Clusters of houses with low or high densities of An. gambiae s.l. were influenced by the number of residents in nearby houses. The occurrence of high-density clusters of An. gambiae s.l. was associated with lower elevations while An. funestus was also associated with higher elevations. Distance from the village centre was also positively correlated with the number of household occupants and having houses constructed with open eaves.

CONCLUSION

The results of the current study highlight that complementary vector control tools could be most effectively targeted to the periphery of villages where the households potentially have a higher hazard (mosquito densities) and vulnerability (open eaves and larger households) to malaria infection.

Malaria mortality rates in South Asia and in Africa: implications for malaria control

Malaria mortality in human populations varies greatly under different circumstances. The intense malaria transmission conditions found in many parts of tropical Africa, the much lower malaria inoculation rates currently sustained in areas of southern Asia, and the epidemic outbreaks of malaria occasionally seen on both continents, present highly contrasting patterns of malaria-related mortality. Here Harsha Alles, Kamini Mendis and Richard Carter examine malaria-related mortality under different circumstances and discuss implications for the management of malaria in these settings. They emphasize the power of rapid case treatment to save lives at risk under virtually all circumstances of malaria transmission.

Socio-demographic factors influencing knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) regarding malaria in Bangladesh

Background

A clear understanding of the social and behavioral risk factors, and knowledge gaps, related to exposure to malaria are essential when developing guidelines and recommendations for more effective disease prevention in many malaria endemic areas of the world including Bangladesh and elsewhere in the South East Asia. To-date, the level of knowledge that human populations, residing in moderate to high malaria risk zones, have with respect to the basic pathogen transmission dynamics, risk factors for malaria or disease preventative strategies, has not been assessed in Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was to address this gap by conducting surveys of the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of people, from variable socio-demographic backgrounds, residing in selected rural malaria endemic areas in Bangladesh.

Methods

The KAP survey was conducted in portions of six different malaria endemic districts in Bangladesh from July to October 2011. The survey consisted of interviewing residence of these malaria endemic districts using a structured questionnaire and interviewers also completed observational checklists at each household where people were interviewed. The study area was further divided into two zones (1 and 2) based on differences in the physical geography and level of malaria endemicity in the two zones. Data from the questionnaires and observational checklists were analysised using Statistical Package for Social Sciences 16.0 (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL, USA).

Results

A total of 468 individuals from individual households were interviewed, and most respondents were female. Monthly incomes varied within and among the zones. It was found that 46.4% and 41% of respondents’ family had malaria within the past one year in zones 1 and 2, respectively. Nearly 86% of the respondents did not know the exact cause of malaria or the role of Anopheles mosquitoes in the pathogen’s transmission. Knowledge on malaria transmission and symptoms of the respondents of zones 1 and 2 were significantly (p<0.01) different. The majority of respondents from both zones believed that bed nets were the main protective measure against malaria, but a significant relationship was not found between the use of bed net and prevalence of malaria. A significant relationship (p<0.05) between level of education with malaria prevalence was found in zone 1. There was a positive correlation between the number of family members and the prevalence of malaria. Houses with walls had a strong positive association with malaria. Approximately 50% of the households of zones 1 and 2 maintained that they suffered from malaria within the last year. A significant association (p<0.01) between malaria and the possession of domestic animals in their houses was found in both zones. People who spent time outside in the evening were more likely to contract malaria than those who did not.

Conclusion

To address the shortcomings in local knowledge about malaria, health personnel working in malaria endemic areas should be trained to give more appropriate counseling in an effort to change certain deeply entrenched traditional behaviors such as spending time outdoors in the evening, improper use of bed nets and irregular use of insecticides during sleep.

Estimating individual exposure to malaria using local prevalence of malaria infection in the field

Background

Heterogeneity in malaria exposure complicates survival analyses of vaccine efficacy trials and confounds the association between immune correlates of protection and malaria infection in longitudinal studies. Analysis may be facilitated by taking into account the variability in individual exposure levels, but it is unclear how exposure can be estimated at an individual level.

Method and Findings

We studied three cohorts (Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya) in Kilifi District, Kenya to assess measures of malaria exposure. Prospective data were available on malaria episodes, geospatial coordinates, proximity to infected and uninfected individuals and residence in predefined malaria hotspots for 2,425 individuals. Antibody levels to the malaria antigens AMA1 and MSP1₁₄₂ were available for 291 children from Junju. We calculated distance-weighted local prevalence of malaria infection within 1 km radius as a marker of individual's malaria exposure. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression model to assess the discriminatory power of these markers for malaria infection (i.e. asymptomatic parasitaemia or clinical malaria). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the discriminatory power of the models. Local malaria prevalence within 1 km radius and AMA1 and MSP1₁₄₂ antibodies levels were independently associated with malaria infection. Weighted local malaria prevalence had an area under ROC curve of 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66–0.73), 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69–0.73) and 0.82 (95%CI: 0.80–0.83) among cohorts in Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya respectively. In a small subset of children from Junju, a model incorporating weighted local malaria prevalence with AMA1 and MSP1₁₄₂ antibody levels provided an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79–0.88).

Conclusion

We have proposed an approach to estimating the intensity of an individual's malaria exposure in the field. The weighted local malaria prevalence can be used as individual marker of malaria exposure in malaria vaccine trials and longitudinal studies of natural immunity to malaria.

Ensemble modeling of the likely public health impact of a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine

BACKGROUND

The RTS,S malaria vaccine may soon be licensed. Models of impact of such vaccines have mainly considered deployment via the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in areas of stable endemic transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, and have been calibrated for such settings. Their applicability to low transmission settings is unclear. Evaluations of the efficiency of different deployment strategies in diverse settings should consider uncertainties in model structure.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

An ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics, with differing assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and treatment access, was constructed. After fitting to an extensive library of field data, each model was used to predict the likely health benefits of RTS,S deployment, via EPI (with or without catch-up vaccinations), supplementary vaccination of school-age children, or mass vaccination every 5 y. Settings with seasonally varying transmission, with overall pre-intervention entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of two, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum, were considered. Predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the simulated 14-y time horizon were dependent on duration of protection. Nevertheless, EPI strategies (with an initial catch-up phase) averted the most deaths per dose at the higher EIRs, although model uncertainty increased with EIR. At two infectious bites per person per annum, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose, even at modest coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

In higher transmission settings, EPI strategies will be most efficient, but vaccination additional to the EPI in targeted low transmission settings, even at modest coverage, might be more efficient than national-level vaccination of infants. The feasibility and economics of mass vaccination, and the circumstances under which vaccination will avert epidemics, remain unclear. The approach of using an ensemble of models provides more secure conclusions than a single-model approach, and suggests greater confidence in predictions of health effects for lower transmission settings than for higher ones.

Impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on malaria transmission indices on the south coast of Kenya

Background

Besides significantly reducing malaria vector densities, prolonged usage of bed nets has been linked to decline of Anopheles gambiae s.s. relative to Anopheles arabiensis, changes in host feeding preference of malaria vectors, and behavioural shifts to exophagy (outdoor biting) for the two important malaria vectors in Africa, An. gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus. In southern coastal Kenya, bed net use was negligible in 1997-1998 when Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae s.s. were the primary malaria vectors, with An. arabiensis and Anopheles merus playing a secondary role. Since 2001, bed net use has increased progressively and reached high levels by 2009-2010 with corresponding decline in malaria transmission.

Methods

To evaluate the impact of the substantial increase in household bed net use within this area on vector density, vector composition, and human-vector contact, indoor and outdoor resting mosquitoes were collected in the same region during 2009-2010 using pyrethrum spray catches and clay pots for indoor and outdoor collections respectively. Information on bed net use per sleeping spaces and factors influencing mosquito density were determined in the same houses using Poisson regression analysis. Species distribution was determined, and number of mosquitoes per house, human-biting rates (HBR), and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) were compared to those reported for the same area during 1997-1998, when bed net coverage had been minimal.

Results

Compared to 1997-1998, a significant decline in the relative proportion of An. gambiae s.s. among collected mosquitoes was noted, coupled with a proportionate increase of An. arabiensis. Following > 5 years of 60-86% coverage with bed nets, the density, human biting rate and EIR of indoor resting mosquitoes were reduced by more than 92% for An. funestus and by 75% for An. gambiae s.l. In addition, the host feeding choice of both vectors shifted more toward non-human vertebrates. Besides bed net use, malaria vector abundance was also influenced by type of house construction and according to whether one sleeps on a bed or a mat (both of these are associated with household wealth). Mosquito density was positively associated with presence of domestic animals.

Conclusions

These entomological indices indicate a much reduced human biting rate and a diminishing role of An. gambiae s.s. in malaria transmission following high bed net coverage. While increasing bed net coverage beyond the current levels may not significantly reduce the transmission potential of An. arabiensis, it is anticipated that increasing or at least sustaining high bed net coverage will result in a diminished role for An. funestus in malaria transmission.

Identifying residual foci of Plasmodium falciparum infections for malaria elimination: the urban context of Khartoum, Sudan

Background

Identifying the location and size of residual foci of infections is critical where malaria elimination is the primary goal. Here the spatial heterogeneity of Plasmodium falciparum infections within the urban extent of Khartoum state in Sudan is investigated using data from cross-sectional surveys undertaken from 1999 to 2008 to inform the Khartoum Malaria Free Initiative (KMFI).

Methods

From 1999–2008 the KMFI undertook cross-sectional surveys of 256 clusters across 203 random samples of residential blocks in the urban Khartoum state in September of each year. Within sampled blocks, at least five persons, including at least one child under the age of five years, were selected from each household. Blood smears were collected from the sampled individuals to examine the presence of P. falciparum parasites. Residential blocks were mapped. Data were analysed for spatial clustering using the Bernoulli model and the significance of clusters were tested using the Kulldorff scan statistic.

Results

A total of 128,510 malaria slide examinations were undertaken during the study period. In 1999, overall prevalence was 2.5%, rising to 3.2% in 2000 and consistently staying below 1% in subsequent years. From 2006, over 90% of all surveyed clusters reported no infections. Spatial clustering of infections was present in each year but not statistically significant in the years 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2008. Spatial clusters of high infection were often located at the junction of the Blue and White Niles.

Conclusion

Persisting foci of malaria infection in Khartoum are likely to distort wide area assessments and disproportionately affect future transmission within the city limits. Improved investments in surveillance that combines both passive and active case detection linked to a geographic information system and a more detailed analysis of the location and stability of foci should be undertaken to facilitate and track malaria elimination in the state of Khartoum.

Screening mosquito house entry points as a potential method for integrated control of endophagic filariasis, arbovirus and malaria vectors

Background

Partial mosquito-proofing of houses with screens and ceilings has the potential to reduce indoor densities of malaria mosquitoes. We wish to measure whether it will also reduce indoor densities of vectors of neglected tropical diseases.

Methodology

The main house entry points preferred by anopheline and culicine vectors were determined through controlled experiments using specially designed experimental huts and village houses in Lupiro village, southern Tanzania. The benefit of screening different entry points (eaves, windows and doors) using PVC-coated fibre glass netting material in terms of reduced indoor densities of mosquitoes was evaluated compared to the control.

Findings

23,027 mosquitoes were caught with CDC light traps; 77.9% (17,929) were Anopheles gambiae sensu lato, of which 66.2% were An. arabiensis and 33.8% An. gambiae sensu stricto. The remainder comprised 0.2% (50) An. funestus, 10.2% (2359) Culex spp. and 11.6% (2664) Mansonia spp. Screening eaves reduced densities of Anopheles gambiae s. l. (Relative ratio (RR)  = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.84, 0.98; P = 0.01); Mansonia africana (RR = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.26, 0.76; P<0.001) and Mansonia uniformis (RR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.25, 0.56; P<0.001) but not Culex quinquefasciatus, Cx. univittatus or Cx. theileri. Numbers of these species were reduced by screening windows and doors but this was not significant.

Significance

This study confirms that across Africa, screening eaves protects households against important mosquito vectors of filariasis, Rift Valley Fever and O'Nyong nyong as well as malaria. While full house screening is required to exclude Culex species mosquitoes, screening of eaves alone or fitting ceilings has considerable potential for integrated control of other vectors of filariasis, arbovirus and malaria.

Mosquito vectors that transmit filariasis and several arboviruses such as Rift Valley Fever, Chikungunya and O'Nyong nyong as well as malaria co-occur across tropical Africa. These diseases are co-endemic in most rural African countries where they are transmitted by the same mosquito vectors. The only control measure currently in widespread use is mass drug administration for filariasis. In this study, we used controlled experiments to evaluate the benefit of screening the main mosquito entry points into houses, namely, eaves, windows and doors. This study aims to illustrate the potential of screening specific house openings with the intention of preventing endophagic mosquitoes from entering houses and thus reducing contact between humans and vectors of neglected tropical diseases. This study confirms that while full house screening is effective for reducing indoor densities of Culex spp. mosquitoes, screening of eaves alone has a great potential for integrated control of neglected tropical diseases and malaria.

Stable and unstable malaria hotspots in longitudinal cohort studies in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases often demonstrate heterogeneity of transmission among host populations. This heterogeneity reduces the efficacy of control strategies, but also implies that focusing control strategies on "hotspots" of transmission could be highly effective.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In order to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, we analysed longitudinal data on febrile malaria episodes, asymptomatic parasitaemia, and antibody titres over 12 y from 256 homesteads in three study areas in Kilifi District on the Kenyan coast. We examined heterogeneity by homestead, and identified groups of homesteads that formed hotspots using a spatial scan statistic. Two types of statistically significant hotspots were detected; stable hotspots of asymptomatic parasitaemia and unstable hotspots of febrile malaria. The stable hotspots were associated with higher average AMA-1 antibody titres than the unstable clusters (optical density [OD] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.47 versus OD = 1.1, 95% CI 0.88-1.33) and lower mean ages of febrile malaria episodes (5.8 y, 95% CI 5.6-6.0 versus 5.91 y, 95% CI 5.7-6.1). A falling gradient of febrile malaria incidence was identified in the penumbrae of both hotspots. Hotspots were associated with AMA-1 titres, but not seroconversion rates. In order to target control measures, homesteads at risk of febrile malaria could be predicted by identifying the 20% of homesteads that experienced an episode of febrile malaria during one month in the dry season. That 20% subsequently experienced 65% of all febrile malaria episodes during the following year. A definition based on remote sensing data was 81% sensitive and 63% specific for the stable hotspots of asymptomatic malaria.

CONCLUSIONS

Hotspots of asymptomatic parasitaemia are stable over time, but hotspots of febrile malaria are unstable. This finding may be because immunity offsets the high rate of febrile malaria that might otherwise result in stable hotspots, whereas unstable hotspots necessarily affect a population with less prior exposure to malaria.