Health economics of dengue: a systematic literature review and expert panel's assessment

Global risk of dengue outbreaks and the impact of El Niño events

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is an arboviral disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Its geographical distribution and health burden have been steadily increasing through tropical and subtropical climates in recent decades.

METHODS

We developed a temperature- and precipitation-dependent mechanistic model for the global risk of dengue fever outbreaks using the basic reproduction number (R0) as the metric of disease transmission risk. We used our model to evaluate the global risk of dengue outbreaks from 1950 to 2020 and to investigate the impact of annual seasons and El Niño events.

RESULTS

We showed that the global annual risk of dengue outbreaks has steadily increased during the last four decades. Highest R0 values were observed in South America, Southeast Asia, and the Equatorial region of Africa year-round with large seasonal variations occurring in other regions. El Niño was shown to be positively correlated with the global risk of dengue outbreaks with a correlation of 0.52. However, the impact of El Niño on dengue R0 was shown to vary across geographical regions and between El Niño events.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong El Niño events may increase the risk of dengue outbreaks across the globe. The onset of these events may trigger a surge of control efforts to minimize risk of dengue outbreaks.

Genotype of dengue virus serotype 1 in relation to severe dengue in Guangzhou, China

Guangzhou has been the city most affected by the dengue virus (DENV) in China, with a predominance of DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1). Viral factors such as dengue serotype and genotype are associated with severe dengue (SD). However, none of the studies have investigated the relationship between DENV-1 genotypes and SD. To understand the association between DENV-1 genotypes and SD, the clinical manifestations of patients infected with different genotypes were investigated. A total of 122 patients with confirmed DENV-1 genotype infection were recruited for this study. The clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, and levels of inflammatory mediator factors were statistically analyzed to investigate the characteristics of clinical manifestations and immune response on the DENV-1 genotype. In the case of DENV-1 infection, the incidence of SD with genotype V infection was significantly higher than that with genotype I infection. Meanwhile, patients infected with genotype V were more common in ostealgia and bleeding significantly. In addition, levels of inflammatory mediator factors including IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-10, and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 were higher in patients with SD infected with genotype V. Meanwhile, the concentrations of regulated upon activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted and growth-related gene alpha were lower in patients with SD infected with genotype V. The higher incidence of SD in patients infected with DENV-1 genotype V may be attributed to elevated cytokines and adhesion molecules, along with decreased chemokines.

[Clinical Update on Diagnosis, Treatment and Prevention of Dengue]

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that has a significant impact on global public health. The vector mosquito belongs to the genus Aedes. Two species play a key role in human transmission: Ae. aegypti, which has adapted to the urban environment of highly populated areas in tropical and subtropical countries, leading to a dramatic increase in dengue cases over the years, and Ae. albopictus, which poses a potential threat to temperate climate countries due to its ability to adapt to colder climates. The disease is widespread across the world, posing a risk to nearly half of the world's population. Although most cases are asymptomatic, dengue causes a burden on healthcare systems and mainly affects the younger population. The disease is also spreading to temperate climate countries, thus becoming a global threat. Vector control measures and vaccine development have been the main prevention strategies, as there is still no effective treatment for the disease.

Development in the Inhibition of Dengue Proteases as Drug Targets

BACKGROUND

Viral infections continue to increase morbidity and mortality severely. The flavivirus genus has fifty different species, including the dengue, Zika, and West Nile viruses that can infect 40% of individuals globally, who reside in at least a hundred different countries. Dengue, one of the oldest and most dangerous human infections, was initially documented by the Chinese Medical Encyclopedia in the Jin period. It was referred to as "water poison," connected to flying insects, i.e., Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. DENV causes some medical expressions like dengue hemorrhagic fever, acute febrile illness, and dengue shock syndrome.

OBJECTIVE

According to the World Health Organization report of 2012, 2500 million people are in danger of contracting dengue fever worldwide. According to a recent study, 96 million of the 390 million dengue infections yearly show some clinical or subclinical severity. There is no antiviral drug or vaccine to treat this severe infection. It can be controlled by getting enough rest, drinking plenty of water, and using painkillers. The first dengue vaccine created by Sanofi, called Dengvaxia, was previously approved by the USFDA in 2019. All four serotypes of the DENV1-4 have shown re-infection in vaccine recipients. However, the usage of Dengvaxia has been constrained by its adverse effects.

CONCLUSION

Different classes of compounds have been reported against DENV, such as nitrogen-containing heterocycles (i.e., imidazole, pyridine, triazoles quinazolines, quinoline, and indole), oxygen-containing heterocycles (i.e., coumarins), and some are mixed heterocyclic compounds of S, N (thiazole, benzothiazine, and thiazolidinediones), and N, O (i.e., oxadiazole). There have been reports of computationally designed compounds to impede the molecular functions of specific structural and non-structural proteins as potential therapeutic targets. This review summarized the current progress in developing dengue protease inhibitors.

Therapeutics for flaviviral infections

Flaviviruses are vector-borne pathogens capable of causing devastating human diseases. The re-emergence of Zika in 2016 notoriously led to a widescale epidemic in the Americas. New daunting evidence suggests that a single mutation in Zika virus genome may increase transmission and pathogenesis, further highlighting the need to be prepared for flavivirus outbreaks. Dengue, in particular infects about 400 million people each year, leading to reoccurring local outbreaks. Public health efforts to mitigate flavivirus transmission is largely dependent on vector control strategies, as only a limited number of flavivirus vaccines have been developed thus far. There are currently no commercially available antivirals for flaviviruses, leaving supportive care as the primary treatment option. In this review, we will briefly paint a broad picture of the flavivirus landscape in terms of therapeutics, with particular focus on viral targets, promising novel compounds entering the drug discovery pipeline, as well as model systems for evaluating drug efficacy.

Assessing the effect of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) control based on machine learning for predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of eggs in ovitraps

Background

Aedes aegypti is the dominant vector of several arboviruses that threaten urban populations in tropical and subtropical countries. Because of the climate changes and the spread of the disease worldwide, the population at risk of acquiring the disease is increasing.

Methods

This study investigated the impact of the larval habitats control (CC), nebulization (NEB), and both methods (CC + NEB) using the distribution of Ae. aegypti eggs collected in urban area of Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo State, Brazil. A total of 142,469 eggs were collected from 2014 to 2017. To verify the effects of control interventions, a spatial trend, and a predictive machine learning modeling analytical approaches were adopted.

Results

The spatial analysis revealed sites with the highest probability of Ae. aegypti occurrence and the machine learning generated an asymmetric histogram for predicting the presence of the mosquito. Results of analyses showed that CC, NEB, and CC + NEB control methods had a negative impact on the number of eggs collected in ovitraps, with effects on the distribution of eggs in the three weeks following the treatments, according to the predictive machine learning modeling.

Conclusions

The vector control interventions are essential to decrease both occurrence of the mosquito vectors and urban arboviruses. The inference processes proposed in this study revealed the relative causal impact of distinct mosquito control interventions. The spatio-temporal and the machine learning analysis are relevant and Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation robust analytical approach to be employed in surveillance and monitoring the results of public health programs focused on combating urban arboviruses.

Association of Neutrophil Mediators With Dengue Disease Severity and Cardiac Impairment in Adults

BACKGROUND

Cardiac impairment contributes to hypotension in severe dengue (SD). However, studies examining pathogenic factors affecting dengue-associated cardiac impairment are lacking. We examined the role of neutrophil mediators on cardiac impairment in clinical dengue.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled adult patients with dengue and controls. Cardiac parameters were measured using a bioimpedance device. Neutrophils mediators were measured, including myeloperoxidase (MPO) and citrullinated histone H3.

RESULTS

We recruited 107 dengue patients and 30 controls. Patients with dengue were classified according to World Health Organization 2009 guidelines (44 with dengue fever [DF], 51 with DF with warning signs, and 12 with SD). During critical phase, stroke index (P < .001), cardiac index (P = .03), and Granov-Goor index (P < .001) were significantly lower in patients with dengue than in controls. During critical phase, MPO was significantly higher in patients with dengue than in controls (P < .001) and also significantly higher in patients with SD than in those with DF. In addition, MPO was inversely associated with the stroke, cardiac, and Granov-Goor indexes, during the critical phase, and longitudinally as well.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac function was decreased, and MPO increased, during with critical phase in patients SD compared with those with DF and controls. MPO may mediate dengue-associated cardiac impairment.

Dengue vaccine development: challenges and prospects

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Dengue vaccine development is a high public health priority. To date, no dengue vaccine is in widespread use. Here we review the challenges in dengue development and the latest results for the second-generation dengue vaccines.

RECENT FINDINGS

The biggest hurdle is the immunological interaction between the four antigenically distinct dengue serotypes. The advantages of second-generation dengue vaccines are the inclusion of nonstructural proteins of the dengue backbone and a more convenient dosing with reduced numbers of doses needed.

SUMMARY

Although dengue-primed individuals can already benefit from vaccination with the first licensed dengue vaccine CYD-TDV, the public health need for the dengue-naive population has not yet been met. The urgent need remains to identify correlates of both protection and enhancement; until such correlates have been identified, all second-generation dengue vaccines still need to go through full phase 3 trials. The 5-year efficacy and safety data for both second-generation dengue vaccines are imminent.

Dengue Incidence Trends and Its Burden in Major Endemic Regions from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Dengue has become one of the major vector-borne diseases, which has been an important public health concern. We aimed to estimate the disease burden of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019, and explore the impact pattern of the socioeconomic factors on the burden of dengue based on the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2019 (GBD 2019).

METHODS

Using the analytical strategies and data from the GBD 2019, we described the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, we estimated the correlation between dengue burden and socioeconomic factors, and then established an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the epidemic trends of dengue in endemic regions. All estimates were proposed as numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). The ASRs of dengue incidence were compared geographically and five regions were stratified by a sociodemographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

A significant rise was observed on a global scale between 1990 and 2019, with the overall age-standardized rate (ASR) increasing from 557.15 (95% UI 243.32-1212.53) per 100,000 in 1990 to 740.4 (95% UI 478.2-1323.1) per 100,000 in 2019. In 2019, the Oceania region had the highest age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population (3173.48 (95% UI 762.33-6161.18)), followed by the South Asia region (1740.79 (95% UI 660.93-4287.12)), and then the Southeast Asia region (1153.57 (95% UI 1049.49-1281.59)). In Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, increase trends were found in the burden of dengue fever measured by ASRs of DALY which were consistent with ASRs of dengue incidence at the national level. Most of the countries with the heaviest burden of dengue fever occurred in areas with low and medium SDI regions. However, the burden in high-middle and high-SDI countries is relatively low, especially the Solomon Islands and Tonga in Oceania, the Maldives in South Asia and Indonesia in Southeast Asia. The age distribution results of the incidence rate and disease burden of dengue fever of major endemic regions showed that the higher risk and disease burden are mainly concentrated in people under 14 or over 70 years old. The prediction by ARIMA showed that the risk of dengue fever in South and Southeast Asia is on the rise, and further prevention and control is warranted.

CONCLUSIONS

In view of the rapid population growth and urbanization in many dengue-endemic countries, our research results are of great significance for presenting the future trend in dengue fever. It is recommended to policy makers that specific attention needs to be paid to the negative impact of urbanization on dengue incidence and allocate more resources to the low-SDI areas and people under 14 or over 70 years old to reduce the burden of dengue fever.

Intra-Host Diversity of Dengue Virus in Mosquito Vectors

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most common arbovirus, causing a significant burden on both the economy and global healthcare systems. The virus is transmitted by Aedes species of mosquitoes as a swarm of closely related virus genomes, collectively referred to as a quasispecies. The level of genomic diversity within this quasispecies varies as DENV moves through various ecological niches within its transmission cycle. Here, the factors that influence the level of DENV quasispecies diversity during the course of infection in the mosquito vectors are reviewed.

Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have demonstrated significant positive effects on other communicable diseases. Nevertheless, the response for dengue fever has been mixed. To illustrate the real implications of NPIs on dengue transmission and to determine the effective measures for preventing and controlling dengue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available global data to summarize the effects comprehensively. We searched Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science in line with PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines from December 31, 2019, to March 30, 2022, for studies of NPI efficacy on dengue infection. We obtained the annual reported dengue cases from highly dengue-endemic countries in 2015–2021 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to determine the actual change in dengue cases in 2020 and 2021, respectively. A random-effects estimate of the pooled odds was generated with the Mantel-Haenszel method. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the inconsistency index (I²) and subgroup analysis according to country (dengue-endemic or non-endemic) was conducted. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021291487). A total of 17 articles covering 32 countries or regions were included in the review. Meta-analysis estimated a pooled relative risk of 0.39 (95% CI: 0.28–0.55), and subgroup revealed 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.25) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.44-0.68) in dengue non-endemic areas and dengue-endemic countries, respectively, in 2020. The majority of highly dengue-endemic countries in Asia and Americas reported 0–100% reductions in dengue cases in 2020 compared to previous years, while some countries (4/20) reported a dramatic increase, resulting in an overall increase of 11%. In contrast, there was an obvious reduction in dengue cases in 2021 in almost all countries (18/20) studied, with an overall 40% reduction rate. The overall effectiveness of NPIs on dengue varied with region and time due to multiple factors, but most countries reported significant reductions. Travel-related interventions demonstrated great effectiveness for reducing imported cases of dengue fever. Internal movement restrictions of constantly varying intensity and range are more likely to mitigate the entire level of dengue transmission by reducing the spread of dengue fever between regions within a country, which is useful for developing a more comprehensive and sustainable strategy for preventing and controlling dengue fever in the future.

Detecting dengue outbreaks in Malaysia using geospatial techniques

Dengue is a complex disease with an increasing number of infections worldwide. This study aimed to analyse spatiotemporal dengue outbreaks using geospatial techniques and examine the effects of the weather on dengue outbreaks in the Klang Valley area, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Daily weather variables including rainfall, temperature (maximum and minimum) and wind speed were acquired together with the daily reported dengue cases data from 2001 to 2011 and converted into geospatial format to identify whether there was a specific pattern of the dengue outbreaks. The association between these variables and dengue outbreaks was assessed using Spearman's correlation. The result showed that dengue outbreaks consistently occurred in the study area during a 11-year study period. And that the strongest outbreaks frequently occurred in two high-rise apartment buildings located in Kuala Lumpur City centre. The results also show significant negative correlations between maximum temperature and minimum temperature on dengue outbreaks around the study area as well as in the area of the high-rise apartment buildings in Kuala Lumpur City centre.

Dengue in parts of the Guinea Savannah region of Nigeria and the risk of increased transmission

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) is spreading to parts of the world where it had not been previously reported. Increased international travel has led to intercontinental importation of dengue by visitors returning from countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Although dengue is well documented in the rain forest region of Nigeria, there is a dearth of information in the Guinea Savannah region, which is a major transit point for local and international visitors in the most populous nation in Africa. We provide preliminary evidence of dengue activity in the Guinea Savannah and highlight the risk factors.

METHODS

Blood was collected from a cross-section of 200 patients attending four hospitals in Anyigba, Kogi State. Anti-dengue antibody was identified using DENV immunoglobulin G (IgG) immunoassays. Questionnaires were used to obtain sociodemographic variables and risk factors. Data were analysed with SPSS version 16.0 for Windows.

RESULTS

Forty-two (20.5%) participants had anti-DENV IgG antibodies. Persons within the 45-59 y age group were more seropositive, with a rate of 35%. Males were more seropositive compared with females. Marriage, formal education, involvement in business activities and the presence of grasses around homes were associated with higher IgG seropositivity. The presence of open water containers around human dwellings and a lack of mosquito net use are predisposing factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified past exposure to DENV among people in Anyigba, located in the Guinea Savannah region. Proper diagnosis of febrile episodes is required to improve case management and curtail off-target treatment. The high rate of previous exposure of patients to dengue indicates the need to strengthen vector control and dengue surveillance programs.

Modified mRNA-LNP Vaccines Confer Protection against Experimental DENV-2 Infection in Mice

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a major global public health concern, and there is no effective vaccine for it. In this study, we describe the design and characterization of three nucleotide-modified mRNA vaccines (prME-mRNA, E80-mRNA, and NS1-mRNA) for DENV-2. Our results showed that vaccination with E80-mRNA alone or a combination of E80-mRNA and NS1-mRNA can induce high levels of neutralizing antibodies and antigen-specific T cell responses; furthermore, these vaccines confer complete protection against DENV-2 challenge in immunocompetent mice. These data provide foundations for further development of a tetravalent DENV vaccine based on nucleotide-modified mRNA.

Estimating the burden of arboviral diseases in Colombia between 2013 and 2016

OBJECTIVE

During the 2013-2016 period, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika affected more than 1 million people in Colombia. These arboviruses and their chronic manifestations pose a public health challenge. Therefore, we estimated the burden of disease by Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia between 2013 and 2016.

METHODS

An exploratory ecological study was carried out using the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a unit of measure. The mortality databases of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and the morbidity databases of the National Public Health Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) were used. Deaths and cases for each arbovirus were grouped and then adjusted to control biases. Subsequently, we performed a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In the 2013-2016 period, 491,629.2 DALYs were lost due to arboviruses in Colombia. By disease, 26.6% of the total DALYs were caused by Dengue, 71.3% by Chikungunya, and the remaining 2.2%, by Zika. The majority of DALYs (68.2%) were caused by chronic complications. Five out of 32 departments (Valle del Cauca, Tolima, Norte de Santander, Huila, and Bolívar) contributed 50.5% of total DALYs.

CONCLUSION

The burden of disease by arboviruses in the 2013-2016 period exceeded the burden of other infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in Colombia. Public health efforts must be made to mitigate new epidemics of these arboviruses.

Immunogenicity and safety of lyophilized and liquid dengue tetravalent vaccine candidate formulations in healthy adults: a randomized, phase 2 clinical trial

Takeda has developed a live-attenuated dengue tetravalent vaccine candidate (TAK-003) which has been shown to be immunogenic with acceptable reactogenicity in phase 1 trials. In agreement with World Health Organization prequalification requirements for dengue vaccines, Takeda has manufactured a lyophilized formulation of TAK-003 that allows stable storage at +2°C to +8°C. This randomized, double-blind, phase 2 study (NCT02193087) was performed in 1002 healthy dengue-naïve adults, 18–49 years of age, across seven centers in the USA to compare the safety and immunogenicity of one or two doses of a lyophilized TAK-003 formulation with the liquid TAK-003 formulation used in previous phase 1 studies. The primary objective was to show immunologic equivalence in terms of geometric mean titers (GMT) of neutralizing antibodies to the four dengue serotypes one month after one dose of the lyophilized and liquid formulations. Secondary assessments were of safety and seropositivity rates, including after a second dose. The primary endpoint was not met, because immunologic equivalence after one dose was only shown for the DENV-2 serotype. Nonetheless, GMTs and seropositivity rates to all four serotypes were achieved with all formulations after two doses and are in line with what was observed in previous studies. Additionally, in view of the acceptable reactogenicity, with no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported, these data support continuing further clinical development of the lyophilized TAK-003 formulation.

Non-structural protein 1 (NS1) of dengue virus detection correlates with severity in primary but not in secondary dengue infection

BACKGROUND

Non-structural protein 1 (NS1) of dengue virus circulates in the serum of patients during the acute phase of the disease.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether NS1 screening can serve in diagnosing primary and secondary infection and to evaluate its utility as a marker for predicting the severity of dengue in children.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients ≤15 years of age hospitalized for dengue between 2012-2018, with NS1 determination (Panbio, Australia) were included. Clinical y laboratorial characteristics were collected in a standardized data table for analysis of correlation between serotypes, primary or secondary condition of infection, severity, and presence of NS1.

RESULTS

Of 709 children hospitalized for dengue with NS1 determination, 479 (67.5 %) had the positive test. Of the 378 primary cases, 320 (85 %) were NS1 (+). while among the 242 secondary cases only 103 (42.5 %) were NS1 (+) (p < 0001). Of the 479 patients with NS1 (+), 344 (72 %) were warnig-signed cases (WSC) and 94 (19 %) were severe cases (SC), being these figures 62 % and 34 %, in the NS1 negative patients respectively (p < 0.001). There was no difference in the frequency of WSC or SC between patients with NS1 positive or negative test in secondary dengue; however, in primary dengue, the figures were 68 % vs 32 % (p < 0.001), and 87 % vs 12 % (p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of NS1 positive test is associated with the condition of infection (primary or secondary) and exhibited an increased risk of developing forms with warning signs or severe dengue in primary cases, but not in secondary cases.

Spatial-temporal distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and locations of recycling units in southeastern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an arbovirus disease that threatens approximately 200 million people annually worldwide. Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) is anthropophilic mosquito, extremely well adapted to the urban environment and utilizes varied habitats for egg-laying and development. This study analysed the distribution of mosquito larvae and eggs in urban area of Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil. The spatial correlation between locations in which people store recyclable materials and the distribution of larvae and eggs were verified.

METHODS

Larvae and ovitrap egg collections were conducted from 2014 to 2016. All persons who stored recyclable materials for living were registered and georeferenced. The Mann-Kendall test was used to verify spatial and temporal trends in the number of eggs and larvae/pupae. Euclidian distance map was constructed to correlate recyclable collectors and Ae. aegypti, and Moran's index was employed to verify their spatial autocorrelation and identification of groupings.

RESULTS

A total of 137,825 eggs and 16,393 larvae were collected in different habitats from 2014 to 2016. The analyses showed that there was a spatial correlation between larvae and eggs collected, and these two kinds of surveys also presented a spatial correlation with the handling of recyclable materials. The results of the analyses showed significant spatial correlations between eggs and recyclable material collectors and between larvae and collectors.

CONCLUSION

The entomological surveillance conducted using ovitraps as a proxy for the presence of Ae. aegypti is an efficient and sensitive method for monitoring the presence of mosquitoes and the impact of interventions employed for decreasing vector populations. Mosquito surveys employing ovitraps should be used more often in routine activities aiming to control dengue through vector control interventions. The locations used to store recyclable materials have a significant relationship with the maintenance of the dengue virus infection in the area. Further studies will be needed to analyse the contribution of recyclable locations, for which there is no ideal infrastructure to minimize the potential use of these materials as mosquito habitats. The entomological surveillance focused on locations of recyclable materials involving interventions that are different from those commonly used in Ae. aegypti control.

Ultrasound Assessment of Hepatobiliary and Splenic Changes in Patients With Dengue and Warning Signs During the Acute and Recovery Phases

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether abdominal ultrasound (US) with a gallbladder (GB) contractility study or motor function test can be used as a diagnostic tool in patients with dengue and warning signs in acute and recovery phases.

METHODS

Fifty-one individuals in the acute phase of dengue presenting with warning signs (dengue group) and 49 healthy individuals without a history of dengue or hepatobiliary disease (control group) were studied with abdominal US and a GB contractility study.

RESULTS

Statistical differences in US measurements of the liver (right lobe, P = .012; left lobe, P = .001) and spleen (P = .008) dimensions, GB wall thickness (P < .001), and the GB emptying fraction (P < .001) were observed in dengue during the acute phase compared with the control group. After 60 days, abdominal US of the dengue group showed a statistical difference in liver (right lobe, P < .001; left lobe, P = .078) and spleen (P < .001) dimensions, GB wall thickness, and the GB emptying fraction (P < .001) compared with the results obtained during the acute phase. Furthermore, a statistical difference in the spleen volume and GB emptying fraction (P < .001) was observed when comparing dengue after clinical recovery and the control group. Abdominal pain in patients with dengue was positively associated with hepatomegaly (P = .031), splenomegaly (P = .008), increased GB wall thickness (P = .016), and a reduced GB emptying fraction (P = .038) during the acute phase and with splenomegaly (P = .001) and a reduced GB emptying fraction (P = .003) after clinical recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal US with a GB motor function test can be used as a diagnostic tool in patients with dengue during acute and recovery phases.

Safety and costs of blood transfusion practices in dengue cases in Brazil

Background

Dengue is a public health problem, and noncompliance with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for blood transfusion components is frequently reported. Moreover, economic impact studies of the WHO recommendations on the use of blood transfusion are scarce.

Methods

We compared the cost and hospitalization time in a prospective observational study, by following hospitalised patients and analysing their medical records from 2010 and March 2016 to December 2017. We divided the patients into two groups: transfused (with or without WHO criteria for transfusion) and not transfused (with or without WHO criteria for transfusion). Generalised linear modelling was performed to identify the variable that could increase the costs and hospital stay.

Results

Among 323 patients, 52 were transfused, of whom 52% without criteria (n = 27), and 271 were not transfused, of which 4.4% (n = 12) with criteria. Hospitalisation costs were 41% higher in the transfused group without criteria than in those with criteria (median US$ 674.3 vs US$ 478 p = 0.293). Patients who were not transfused but met the WHO criteria for transfusion (n = 12) had longer mean hospitalisation time than did those who were not transfused (3.8±3.4 days versus 3.6±3.1 days; p = 0.022). The GLM analysis using hospital stay and costs as the dependent variable explained approximately 33.4% (R² = 0.334) of the hospitalisation time and 79.3% (R² = 0.793) of costs. Receiving a transfusion increased the hospitalization time by 1.29 days (p = 0.0007; IRR = 1.29), and the costs were 5.1 times higher than those without receiving blood components (IRR = 5.1; p< 0.001; median US$ 504.4 vs US$ 170.7). In contrast, patients who were transfused according to WHO criteria had a reduction in costs of approximately 96% (IRR = 0.044; p<0.001; β = -3.12) compared to that for those who were not transfused according to WHO criteria (without criteria).

Conclusion

Transfusion without following WHO recommendations increased the time and cost of hospitalisation.

Evaluation of intensified dengue control measures with interrupted time series analysis in the Panadura Medical Officer of Health division in Sri Lanka: a case study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue has become a major public health problem in Sri Lanka with a considerable economic burden. As a response, in June, 2014, the Ministry of Health initiated a proactive vector control programme in partnership with military and police forces, known as the Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) programme, that was targeted at high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in the country. Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions is essential to guide public health planning and resource allocation decisions, particularly in resource-limited health-care settings.

METHODS

Using an interrupted time series design with a non-linear extension, we evaluated the impact of vector control interventions from June 22, 2014, to Dec 29, 2016, in Panadura, a high-risk MOH division in Western Province, Sri Lanka. We used dengue notification and larval survey data to estimate the reduction in Breteau index and dengue incidence before and after the intervention using two separate models, adjusting for time-varying confounding variables (ie, rainfall, temperature, and the Oceanic Niño Index). We also assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of the CIMIC programme from the perspective of the National Dengue Control Unit under the scenarios of different levels of hospitalisation of dengue cases (low [25%], medium [50%], and high [75%]) in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted (DALY).

FINDINGS

Vector control interventions had a significant impact on combined Breteau index (relative risk reduction 0·43, 95% CI 0·26 to 0·70) and on dengue incidence (0·43, 0·28 to 0·67), the latter becoming prominent 2 months after the intervention onset. The mean number of averted dengue cases was estimated at 2192 (95% CI 1741 to 2643), and the total cost of the CIMIC programme at 2016 US$271 615. Personnel costs accounted for about 89% of the total cost. In the base-case scenario of moderate level of hospitalisation, the CIMIC programme was cost-saving with a probability of 70% under both the lowest ($453) and highest ($1686) cost-effectiveness thresholds, resulting in a net saving of $20 247 (95% CI -57 266 to 97 790) and averting 176 DALYs (133 to 226), leading to a cost of -$98 (-497 to 395) per DALY averted. This was also the case for the scenario with high hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted -$512, 95% CI -872 to -115) but with a higher probability of 99%. In the scenario with low hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted $690, 143 to 1379), although the CIMIC programme was cost-ineffective at the lowest threshold with a probability of 77%, it was cost-effective at the highest threshold with a probability of 99%.

INTERPRETATION

This study suggests that communities affected by dengue can benefit from investments in vector control if interventions are implemented rigorously and coordinated well across sectors. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the disease and economic burden of dengue in endemic settings.

FUNDING

None.

Economic and epidemiological impact of dengue illness over 16 years from a public health system perspective in Brazil to inform future health policies including the adoption of a dengue vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is a serious global health problem endemic in Brazil. Consequently, our aim was to measure the costs and disease burden of symptomatic dengue infections in Brazil from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) between 2000 and 2015, using Brazilian public health system databases. Specific age group incidence estimates were used to calculate the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to gain a better understanding of the disease burden. Areas covered: SUS spent almost USD159 million and USD10 million to treat dengue and severe dengue, respectively, between 2000 and 2015. This is principally hospitalization costs, with the majority of patients self-treated at home with minor symptoms. The average notification rate for dengue was 273 per 100,000 inhabitants and three per 100,000 for severe dengue, with annual DALYs estimates ranging between 72.35 and 6,824.45 during the 16 years. Expert commentary: The epidemiological and morbidity burden associated with dengue is substantial in Brazil, with costs affected by the fact that most patients self-treat at home with these costs not included in SUS. The Brazilian government urgently needs to proactively evaluate the real costs and clinical benefits of any potential dengue vaccination program by the National Immunization Program to guide future decision-making.

Dengue

Mortality from severe dengue is low, but the economic and resource burden on health services remains substantial in endemic settings. Unfortunately, progress towards development of effective therapeutics has been slow, despite notable advances in the understanding of disease pathogenesis and considerable investment in antiviral drug discovery. For decades antibody-dependent enhancement has been the prevalent model to explain dengue pathogenesis, but it was only recently demonstrated in vivo and in clinical studies. At present, the current mainstay of management for most symptomatic dengue patients remains careful observation and prompt but judicious use of intravenous hydration therapy for those with substantial vascular leakage. Various new promising technologies for diagnosis of dengue are currently in the pipeline. New sample-in, answer-out nucleic acid amplification technologies for point-of-care use are being developed to improve performance over current technologies, with the potential to test for multiple pathogens using a single specimen. The search for biomarkers that reliably predict development of severe dengue among symptomatic individuals is also a major focus of current research efforts. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in 2015 but its performance depends on serostatus. There is an urgent need to identify correlates of both vaccine protection and disease enhancement. A crucial assessment of vector control tools should guide a research agenda for determining the most effective interventions, and how to best combine state-of-the-art vector control with vaccination.

Dengue diagnosis in an endemic area of Peru: Clinical characteristics and positive frequencies by RT-PCR and serology for NS1, IgM, and IgG

BACKGROUND

Huánuco is a central eastern region of Peru whose geography includes high forest and low jungle, as well as a mountain range that constitutes the inter-Andean valleys. It is considered a region endemic for dengue due to the many favorable conditions that facilitate transmission of the virus.

METHODS

A total of 268 serum samples from patients in Huánuco, Peru with an acute febrile illness were assessed for the presence of dengue virus (DENV) via RT-PCR and NS1, IgM, and IgG ELISA during December 2015 and March 2016.

RESULTS

DENV was detected in 25% of samples via RT-PCR, 19% of samples by NS1 antigen ELISA, and 10.5% of samples by IgM ELISA. DENV IgG was detected in 15.7% of samples by ELISA. The most frequent symptoms associated with fever across all groups were headache, myalgia, and arthralgia, with no significant difference between the four test methods CONCLUSIONS: In this study, DENV was identified in up to 25% of the samples using the standard laboratory method. In addition, a correlation was established between the frequency of positive results and the serological tests that determine NS1, IgM, and IgG. There is an increasing need for point-of-care tests to strengthen epidemiological surveillance in Peru.

Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

BACKGROUND

Dengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control.

RESULTS

We developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.

Dengue in the Philippines: model and analysis of parameters affecting transmission

Dengue is endemic in the Philippines and poses a substantial economic burden in the country. In this work, a compartmentalized model which includes healthcare-seeking class is developed. The reproduction number is determined to investigate critical parameters influencing transmission. Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) technique is performed to address how the model output is affected by changes in a specific parameter disregarding the uncertainty over the rest of the parameters. Results show that mosquito biting rate, transmission probability from mosquito to human, respectively, from human to mosquito, and fraction of individuals who seek healthcare at the onset of the disease, posted high PRCC values. In order to obtain the values for the desired parameters, the reported dengue cases by morbidity week in the Philippines for the year 2014 and 2015 are used. The reliability of parameters is then verified via parametric bootstrap.

The Estimates of the Health and Economic Burden of Dengue in Vietnam

Dengue has been estimated to cause a substantial health and economic burden in Vietnam. The most recent studies have estimated that it is responsible for 39884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, representing an economic burden of US$94.87 million per year (in 2016 prices). However, there are alternative burden estimates that are notably lower. This variation is predominantly due to differences in how the number of symptomatic dengue cases is estimated. Understanding the methodology of these burden calculations is vital when interpreting health economic analyses of dengue. This review aims to provide an overview of the health and economic burden estimates of dengue in Vietnam. We also highlight important research gaps for future studies.

Current challenges and implications for dengue, chikungunya and Zika seroprevalence studies worldwide: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Arboviral infections are a public health concern and an escalating problem worldwide. Estimating the burden of these diseases represents a major challenge that is complicated by the large number of unapparent infections, especially those of dengue fever. Serological surveys are thus required to identify the distribution of these diseases and measure their impact. Therefore, we undertook a scoping review of the literature to describe and summarize epidemiological practices, findings and insights related to seroprevalence studies of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus, which have rapidly expanded across the globe in recent years.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Relevant studies were retrieved through a literature search of MEDLINE, WHOLIS, Lilacs, SciELO and Scopus (2000 to 2018). In total, 1389 publications were identified. Studies addressing the seroprevalence of dengue, chikungunya and/or Zika written in English or French and meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included. In total, 147 studies were included, from which 185 data points were retrieved, as some studies used several different samples. Most of the studies were exclusively conducted on dengue (66.5%), but 16% were exclusively conducted on chikungunya, and 7 were exclusively conducted on Zika; the remainder were conducted on multiple arboviruses. A wide range of designs were applied, but most studies were conducted in the general population (39%) and in households (41%). Although several assays were used, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were the predominant test used (77%). The temporal distribution of chikungunya studies followed the virus during its rapid expansion since 2004. The results revealed heterogeneity of arboviruses seroprevalence between continents and within a given country for dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, ranging from 0 to 100%, 76% and 73% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Serological surveys provide the most direct measurement for defining the immunity landscape for infectious diseases, but the methodology remains difficult to implement. Overall, dengue, chikungunya and Zika serosurveys followed the expansion of these arboviruses, but there remain gaps in their geographic distribution. This review addresses the challenges for researchers regarding study design biases. Moreover, the development of reliable, rapid and affordable diagnosis tools represents a significant issue concerning the ability of seroprevalence surveys to differentiate infections when multiple viruses co-circulate.

Performance Evaluation of Commercial Dengue Diagnostic Tests for Early Detection of Dengue in Clinical Samples

The shattering rise in dengue virus infections globally has created a need for an accurate and validated rapid diagnostic test for this virus. Rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) diagnostic detection are useful tools for diagnosis of early dengue infection. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of nonstructural 1 (NS1) RDT and real-time RT-PCR diagnostic kits in 86 patient serum samples. Thirty-six samples were positive for dengue NS1 antigen while the remaining 50 were negative when tested with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Commercially available RDTs for NS1 detection, RTK ProDetect™, and SD Bioline showed high sensitivity of 94% and 89%, respectively, compared with ELISA. GenoAmp® Trioplex Real-Time RT-PCR and RealStar® Dengue RT-PCR tests presented a comparable kappa agreement with 0.722. The result obtained from GenoAmp® Real-Time RT-PCR Dengue test showed that 14 samples harbored dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1), 8 samples harbored DENV-2, 2 samples harbored DENV-3, and 1 sample harbored DENV-4. 1 sample had a double infection with DENV-1 and DENV-2. The NS1 RDTs and real-time RT-PCR tests were found to be a useful diagnostic for early and rapid diagnosis of acute dengue and an excellent surveillance tool in our battle against dengue.

Direct cost of dengue hospitalization in Zhongshan, China: Associations with demographics, virus types and hospital accreditation

Background

Zhongshan City of Guangdong Province (China) is a key provincial and national level area for dengue fever prevention and control. The aim of this study is to analyze how the direct hospitalization costs and the length of stay of dengue hospitalization cases vary according to associated factors such as the demographics, virus types and hospital accreditation.

Method

This study is based on retrospective census data from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Totally, the hospital administrative data of 1432 confirmed dengue inpatients during 2013–2014 was obtained. A quantile regression model was applied to analyze how the direct cost of Dengue hospitalization varies with the patient demographics and hospital accreditation across the data distribution. The Length of Stay (LOS) was also examined.

Main findings

The average direct hospitalization cost of a dengue case in this study is US$ 499.64 during 2013, which corresponded to about 3.71% of the gross domestic product per capita in Zhongshan that year. The mean of the Length of Stay (LOS) is 7.2 days. The multivariate quantile regression results suggest that, after controlling potential compounding variables, the median hospitalization costs of male dengue patients were significantly higher than female ones by about US$ 18.23 (p<0.1). The hospitalization cost difference between the pediatric and the adult patients is estimated to be about US$ 75.25 at the median (p<0.01), but it increases sharply among the top 25 percentiles and reaches US$ 329 at the 90^th percentile (p<0.01). The difference between the senior (older than 64 years old) and the adult patients increases steadily across percentiles, especially sharply among the top quartiles too. The LOS of the city-level hospitals is significantly shorter than that in the township-level hospitals by one day at the median (p<0.05), but no significant differences in their hospitalization costs.

Conclusions

The direct hospitalization costs of dengue cases vary widely according to the associated demographics factors, virus types and hospital accreditations. The findings in this study provide information for adopting hospitalization strategy, cost containment and patient allocation in dengue prevention and control. Also the results can be used as the cost-effective reference for future dengue vaccine adoption strategy in China.

There is little literature estimating dengue disease burdens and treatment costs worldwide; however, still fewer studies focus on the hospitalization cost of Dengue. Using the quantile regression method to analyze the administrative data of 1,432 confirmed dengue inpatients in Zhongshan City (Guangdong, China) during 2013 and 2014, this study examines the relationship of the direct cost of Dengue hospitalization and the associated factors. The Length of Stay (LOS) was also examined. The findings in this study will help to explain how the hospitalization cost varies with associated factors, providing information for adopting hospitalization strategy, cost containment and patient allocation in dengue prevention and control, as well as reference for future dengue vaccine cost-effective analysis.

Analysis of Dengue Serotype 4 in Sri Lanka during the 2012-2013 Dengue Epidemic

The four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4) have had a rapidly expanding geographic range and are now endemic in over 100 tropical and subtropical countries. Sri Lanka has experienced periodic dengue outbreaks since the 1960s, but since 1989 epidemics have become progressively larger and associated with more severe disease. The dominant virus in the 2012 epidemic was DENV-1, but DENV-4 infections were also commonly observed. DENV-4 transmission was first documented in Sri Lanka when it was isolated from a traveler in 1978, but has been comparatively uncommon since dengue surveillance began in the early 1980s. To better understand the molecular epidemiology of DENV-4 infections in Sri Lanka, we conducted whole-genome sequencing on dengue patient samples from two different geographic locations. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that all sequenced DENV-4 strains belong to genotype 1 and are most closely related to DENV-4 viruses previously found in Sri Lanka and those recently found to be circulating in India and Pakistan.

The Potential Cost Effectiveness of Different Dengue Vaccination Programmes in Malaysia: A Value-Based Pricing Assessment Using Dynamic Transmission Mathematical Modelling

BACKGROUND

Dengue disease poses a great economic burden in Malaysia.

METHODS

This study evaluated the cost effectiveness and impact of dengue vaccination in Malaysia from both provider and societal perspectives using a dynamic transmission mathematical model. The model incorporated sensitivity analyses, Malaysia-specific data, evidence from recent phase III studies and pooled efficacy and long-term safety data to refine the estimates from previous published studies. Unit costs were valued in $US, year 2013 values.

RESULTS

Six vaccination programmes employing a three-dose schedule were identified as the most likely programmes to be implemented. In all programmes, vaccination produced positive benefits expressed as reductions in dengue cases, dengue-related deaths, life-years lost, disability-adjusted life-years and dengue treatment costs. Instead of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), we evaluated the cost effectiveness of the programmes by calculating the threshold prices for a highly cost-effective strategy [ICER <1 × gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and a cost-effective strategy (ICER between 1 and 3 × GDP per capita). We found that vaccination may be cost effective up to a price of $US32.39 for programme 6 (highly cost effective up to $US14.15) and up to a price of $US100.59 for programme 1 (highly cost effective up to $US47.96) from the provider perspective. The cost-effectiveness analysis is sensitive to under-reporting, vaccine protection duration and model time horizon.

CONCLUSION

Routine vaccination for a population aged 13 years with a catch-up cohort aged 14-30 years in targeted hotspot areas appears to be the best-value strategy among those investigated. Dengue vaccination is a potentially good investment if the purchaser can negotiate a price at or below the cost-effective threshold price.

Household Dengue Prevention Interventions, Expenditures, and Barriers to Aedes aegypti Control in Machala, Ecuador

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an efficient vector for the transmission of Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses, causing major epidemics and a significant social and economic burden throughout the tropics and subtropics. The primary means of preventing these diseases is household-level mosquito control. However, relatively little is known about the economic burden of Ae. aegypti control in resource-limited communities. We surveyed residents from 40 households in a high-risk community at the urban periphery in the city of Machala, Ecuador, on dengue perceptions, vector control interventions, household expenditures, and factors influencing purchasing decisions. The results of this study show that households spend a monthly median of US$2.00, or 1.90% (range: 0.00%, 9.21%) of their family income on Ae. aegypti control interventions. Households reported employing, on average, five different mosquito control and dengue prevention interventions, including aerosols, liquid sprays, repellents, mosquito coils, and unimpregnated bed nets. We found that effectiveness and cost were the most important factors that influence people's decisions to purchase a mosquito control product. Our findings will inform the development and deployment of new Ae. aegypti control interventions by the public health and private sectors, and add to prior studies that have focused on the economic burden of dengue-like illness.

Changing paradigms in Aedes control: considering the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission

Current dengue vector control strategies, focusing on reactive implementation of insecticide-based interventions in response to clinically apparent disease manifestations, tend to be inefficient, short-lived, and unsustainable within the worldwide epidemiological scenario of virus epidemic recrudescence. As a result of a series of expert meetings and deliberations, a paradigm shift is occurring and a new strategy, using risk stratification at the city level in order to concentrate proactive, sustained efforts in areas at high risk for transmission, has emerged. In this article, the authors 1) outline this targeted, proactive intervention strategy, within the context of dengue epidemiology, the dynamics of its transmission, and current Aedes control strategies, and 2) provide support from published literature for the need to empirically test its impact on dengue transmission as well as on the size of disease outbreaks. As chikungunya and Zika viruses continue to expand their range, the need for a science-based, proactive approach for control of urban Aedes spp. mosquitoes will become a central focus of integrated disease management planning.

Disease and economic burdens of dengue

The burden of dengue is large and growing. More than half of the global population lives in areas with risk of dengue transmission. Uncertainty in burden estimates, however, challenges policy makers' ability to set priorities, allocate resources, and plan for interventions. In this report, the first in a Series on dengue, we explore the estimations of disease and economic burdens of dengue, and the major estimation challenges, limitations, and sources of uncertainty. We also reflect on opportunities to remedy these deficiencies. Point estimates of apparent dengue infections vary widely, although the confidence intervals of these estimates overlap. Cost estimates include different items, are mostly based on a single year of data, use different monetary references, are calculated from different perspectives, and are difficult to compare. Comprehensive estimates that decompose the cost by different stakeholders (as proposed in our framework), that consider the cost of epidemic years, and that account for productivity and tourism losses, are scarce. On the basis of these estimates, we propose the most comprehensive framework for estimating the economic burden of dengue in any region, differentiated by four very different domains of cost items and by three potential stakeholders who bear the costs. This framework can inform future estimations of the economic burden of dengue and generate demand for additional routine administrative data collection, or for systematic incorporation of additional questions in nationally representative surveys in dengue-endemic countries. Furthermore, scholars could use the framework to guide scenario simulations that consider ranges of possible values for cost items for which data are not yet available. Results would be valuable to policy makers and would also raise awareness among communities, potentially improving dengue control efforts.

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV, Dengvaxia®) in Brazil; Implications for Future Pricing Considerations

Introduction and Objective: Dengue virus is a serious global health problem with an estimated 3.97 billion people at risk for infection worldwide. In December 2015, the first vaccine (CYD-TDV) for dengue prevention was approved in Brazil, developed by Sanofi Pasteur. However, given that the vaccine will potentially be paid via the public health system, information is need regarding consumers' willingness to pay for the dengue vaccine in the country as well as discussions related to the possible inclusion of this vaccine into the public health system. This was the objective of this research. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study with residents of Greater Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, about their willingness to pay for the CYD-TDV vaccine. Results: 507 individuals were interviewed. These were mostly female (62.4%) had completed high school (62.17%), were working (74.4%), had private health insurance (64.5%) and did not have dengue (67.4%). The maximum median value of consumers' willingness to pay for CYD-TDV vaccine is US$33.61 (120.00BRL) for the complete schedule and US$11.20 (40.00BRL) per dose. At the price determined by the Brazil's regulatory chamber of pharmaceutical products market for the commercialization of Dengvaxia® for three doses, only 17% of the population expressed willingness to pay for this vaccine. Conclusion: Brazil is currently one of the largest markets for dengue vaccine and the price established is a key issue. We believe the manufacturer should asses the possibility of lower prices to reach a larger audience among the Brazilian population.

A New Look at an Old Disease: Recent Insights into the Global Epidemiology of Dengue

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

By all measures, the morbidity and mortality due to dengue are continuing to worsen worldwide. Although both early and recent studies have demonstrated regional differences in how dengue affects local populations, these findings were to varying extents related to disparate surveillance approaches.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies have broadened the recognized spectrum of disease resulting from DENV infection, particularly in adults, and have also demonstrated new mechanisms of DENV spread both within and between populations. New results regarding the frequency and duration of homo- and heterotypic anti-DENV antibodies have provided important insights relevant to vaccine design and implementation.

SUMMARY

These observations and findings as well as difficulties in comparing the epidemiology of dengue within and between regions of the world underscore the need for population-based dengue surveillance worldwide. Enhanced surveillance should be implemented to complement passive surveillance in countries in the tropics to establish baseline data in order to define affected populations and evaluate the impact of dengue vaccines and novel vector control interventions.

Innovative dengue vector control interventions in Latin America: what do they cost?

Background

Five studies were conducted in Fortaleza (Brazil), Girardot (Colombia), Machala (Ecuador), Acapulco (Mexico), and Salto (Uruguay) to assess dengue vector control interventions tailored to the context. The studies involved the community explicitly in the implementation, and focused on the most productive breeding places for Aedes aegypti. This article reports the cost analysis of these interventions.

Methods

We conducted the costing from the perspective of the vector control program. We collected data on quantities and unit costs of the resources used to deliver the interventions. Comparable information was requested for the routine activities. Cost items were classified, analyzed descriptively, and aggregated to calculate total costs, costs per house reached, and incremental costs.

Results

Cost per house of the interventions were $18.89 (Fortaleza), $21.86 (Girardot), $30.61 (Machala), $39.47 (Acapulco), and $6.98 (Salto). Intervention components that focused mainly on changes to the established vector control programs seem affordable; cost savings were identified in Salto (−21%) and the clean patio component in Machala (−12%). An incremental cost of 10% was estimated in Fortaleza. On the other hand, there were also completely new components that would require sizeable financial efforts (installing insecticide-treated nets in Girardot and Acapulco costs $16.97 and $24.96 per house, respectively).

Conclusions

The interventions are promising, seem affordable and may improve the cost profile of the established vector control programs. The costs of the new components could be considerable, and should be assessed in relation to the benefits in reduced dengue burden.

The economic promise of developing and implementing dengue vaccines: Evidence from a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is one of the most rapidly advancing viral vector-borne diseases worldwide and vaccine candidates are in the final stages of clinical trials, representing a decisive opportunity to control the disease. To decide whether and where to support the introduction of new vaccines it is crucial to assess costs imposed by the disease and cost-effectiveness of vaccine programmes.

OBJECTIVE

To identify economic evidence about dengue fever immunization, by systematic review, to assist future policy decisions and investment.

METHODS

The electronic search stage was conducted on PubMed/Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) databases. Searches were restricted to papers published between January 1970 and February 2016. Selected papers were quality assessed using three recognized checklists.

RESULTS

Eleven relevant studies were identified and there is economic evidence of a satisfactory quality level, derived through modelling approaches, to conclude that dengue fever vaccines will be economically advantageous when compared to vector preventive strategies, despite uncertainties surrounding vaccine efficacy and costs per vaccine dose. Quality assessment based on checklists showed similar findings and although overall quality was considered satisfactory, there were relevant methodological issues not considered among studies reviewed.

CONCLUSION

Several uncertainties still remain about effectiveness of dengue fever vaccines; however, the reviewed economic evidence suggests that, when available, the vaccine can be economically advantageous at moderate prices. Future research needs to confirm findings from the economic models by using actual costs and effectiveness data.

Public Health Interventions for Aedes Control in the Time of Zikavirus- A Meta-Review on Effectiveness of Vector Control Strategies

BACKGROUND

There is renewed interest in effective measures to control Zika and dengue vectors. A synthesis of published literature with a focus on the quality of evidence is warranted to determine the effectiveness of vector control strategies.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a meta-review assessing the effectiveness of any Aedes control measure. We searched Scopus and Medline for relevant reviews through to May 2016. Titles, abstracts and full texts were assessed independently for inclusion by two authors. Data extraction was performed in duplicate and validity of the evidence was assessed using GRADE criteria.

FINDINGS

13 systematic reviews that investigated the effect of control measures on entomological parameters or disease incidence were included. Biological controls seem to achieve better reduction of entomological indices than chemical controls, while educational campaigns can reduce breeding habitats. Integrated vector control strategies may not always increase effectiveness. The efficacy of any control programme is dependent on local settings, intervention type, resources and study duration, which may partly explain the varying degree of success between studies. Nevertheless, the quality of evidence was mostly low to very low due to poor reporting of study design, observational methodologies, heterogeneity, and indirect outcomes, thus hindering an evidence-based recommendation.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence for the effectiveness of Aedes control measures is mixed. Chemical control, which is commonly used, does not appear to be associated with sustainable reductions of mosquito populations over time. Indeed, by contributing to a false sense of security, chemical control may reduce the effectiveness of educational interventions aimed at encouraging local people to remove mosquito breeding sites. Better quality studies of the impact of vector control interventions on the incidence of human infections with Dengue or Zika are still needed.

Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam during 2004-2014

Background

Currently, dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) is an important public health challenge in many areas, including the Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam.

Methods and Aim

This study was conducted in 2015 using a retrospective secondary data analysis on monthly data of DF/DHF cases and climate conditions from 2004-2014 in Ba Tri District, which aimed to explore the relationship between DF/DHF and climate variables.

Results

During the period of 2004-2014, there were 5728 reported DF/DHF cases and five deaths. The disease occurred year round, with peaked from May to October and the highest number of cases occurred in June and July. There were strong correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases within that period with average rainfall (r = 0.70), humidity (r = 0.59), mosquito density (r = 0.82), and Breteau index (r = 0.81). A moderate association was observed between the monthly average number of DF/DHF cases and the average temperature (r = 0.37). The monthly DF/DHF cases were also moderately correlated with the Aedes mosquito density.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Local health authorities need to monitor DF/DHF cases at the beginning of epidemic period, starting from April and to apply timely disease prevention measures to avoid the spreading of the disease in the following months. More vector control efforts should be implemented in March and April, just before the rainy season, which can help to reduce the vector density and the epidemic risk. A larger scale study using national data and for a longer period of time should be undertaken to thoroughly describe the correlation between climate variability and DF/DHF cases as well as for modeling and building projection model for the disease in the coming years. This can play an important role for active prevention of DF/DHF in Vietnam under the impacts of climate change and weather variability.

Identification of resveratrol analogs as potent anti-dengue agents using a cell-based assay

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a variety of difficult-to-treat diseases that threaten almost half of the world's population. Currently, no effective vaccine or antiviral therapy is available. We have examined a series of synthetic resveratrol analogs to identify potential anti-DENV agents. Here, we demonstrate that two resveratrol analogs, PNR-4-44 and PNR-5-02, possess potent anti-DENV activity with EC₅₀ values in the low nanomolar range. These two resveratrol analogs were shown to mainly target viral RNA translation and viral replication, but PNR-5-02 is also likely to target cellular factors inside host cells. Although the precise molecular mechanism(s) mediating anti-DENV activities have not been elucidated, further structure-guided design might lead to the development of newer improved resveratrol derivatives that might have therapeutic value. J. Med. Virol. 89:397-407, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Calculation of the Average Cost per Case of Dengue Fever in Mexico Using a Micro-Costing Approach

Introduction

The increasing burden of dengue fever (DF) in the Americas, and the current epidemic in previously unaffected countries, generate major costs for national healthcare systems. There is a need to quantify the average cost per DF case. In Mexico, few data are available on costs, despite DF being endemic in some areas. Extrapolations from studies in other countries may prove unreliable and are complicated by the two main Mexican healthcare systems (the Secretariat of Health [SS] and the Mexican Social Security Institute [IMSS]). The present study aimed to generate specific average DF cost-per-case data for Mexico using a micro-costing approach.

Methods

Expected medical costs associated with an ideal management protocol for DF (denoted ´ideal costs´) were compared with the medical costs of current treatment practice (denoted ´real costs´) in 2012. Real cost data were derived from chart review of DF cases and interviews with patients and key personnel from 64 selected hospitals and ambulatory care units in 16 states for IMSS and SS. In both institutions, ideal and real costs were estimated using the program, actions, activities, tasks, inputs (PAATI) approach, a micro-costing technique developed by us.

Results

Clinical pathways were obtained for 1,168 patients following review of 1,293 charts. Ideal and real costs for SS patients were US$165.72 and US$32.60, respectively, in the outpatient setting, and US$587.77 and US$490.93, respectively, in the hospital setting. For IMSS patients, ideal and real costs were US$337.50 and US$92.03, respectively, in the outpatient setting, and US$2,042.54 and US$1,644.69 in the hospital setting.

Conclusions

The markedly higher ideal versus real costs may indicate deficiencies in the actual care of patients with DF. It may be necessary to derive better estimates with micro-costing techniques and compare the ideal protocol with current practice when calculating these costs, as patients do not always receive optimal care.

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by infection with the dengue virus, which is spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Although the effects of DF are usually mild, in some cases serious illness and even death may result. The average costs per case when extrapolated to society may therefore be high, particularly given the large number of people infected during an endemic year. In Mexico, relatively little is known about the average cost per case (from either the healthcare system or the patient perspective). Such information is important to guide decisions about health policy, e.g. vaccination or public education. We aimed to quantify the average cost per case of DF using a micro-costing approach, both for DF treatment according to an ideal protocol for the management of the patient (´ideal costs´) and according to current treatment practice in the health services (´real costs´). Our results were largely consistent with findings from other international studies, but showed higher ideal costs compared with real costs. We think this may point to inadequate use of laboratory tests and treatments for patients with DF in Mexico. Our cost data will be used in a subsequent publication regarding the economic impact of DF in Mexico.

Sensitivity of the Dengue Surveillance System in Brazil for Detecting Hospitalized Cases

We evaluated the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system in detecting hospitalized cases in ten capital cities in Brazil from 2008 to 2013 using a probabilistic record linkage of two independent information systems hospitalization (SIH-SUS) adopted as the gold standard and surveillance (SINAN). Sensitivity was defined as the proportion of cases reported to the surveillance system amid the suspected hospitalized cases registered in SIH-SUS. Of the 48,174 hospitalizations registered in SIH-SUS, 24,469 (50.7%) were reported and registered in SINAN, indicating an overall sensitivity of 50.8% (95%CI 50.3-51.2). The observed sensitivity for each of the municipalities included in the study ranged from 22.0% to 99.1%. The combination of the two data sources identified 71,161 hospitalizations, an increase of 97.0% over SINAN itself. Our results allowed establishing the proportion of underreported dengue hospitalizations in the public health system in Brazil, highlighting the use of probabilistic record linkage as a valuable tool for evaluating surveillance systems.

The global economic burden of dengue: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a serious global burden. Unreported and unrecognised apparent dengue virus infections make it difficult to estimate the true extent of dengue and current estimates of the incidence and costs of dengue have substantial uncertainty. Objective, systematic, comparable measures of dengue burden are needed to track health progress, assess the application and financing of emerging preventive and control strategies, and inform health policy. We estimated the global economic burden of dengue by country and super-region (groups of epidemiologically similar countries).

METHODS

We used the latest dengue incidence estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 and several other data sources to assess the economic burden of symptomatic dengue cases in the 141 countries and territories with active dengue transmission. From the scientific literature and regressions, we estimated cases and costs by setting, including the non-medical setting, for all countries and territories.

FINDINGS

Our global estimates suggest that in 2013 there were a total of 58·40 million symptomatic dengue virus infections (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 24 million-122 million), including 13 586 fatal cases (95% UI 4200-34 700), and that the total annual global cost of dengue illness was US$8·9 billion (95% UI 3·7 billion-19·7 billion). The global distribution of dengue cases is 18% admitted to hospital, 48% ambulatory, and 34% non-medical.

INTERPRETATION

The global cost of dengue is substantial and, if control strategies could reduce dengue appreciably, billions of dollars could be saved globally. In estimating dengue costs by country and setting, this study contributes to the needs of policy makers, donors, developers, and researchers for economic assessments of dengue interventions, particularly with the licensure of the first dengue vaccine and promising developments in other technologies.

FUNDING

Sanofi Pasteur.

Current issues in the economics of vaccination against dengue

Dengue is a major public health concern in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. The prospects for dengue prevention have recently improved with the results of efficacy trials of a tetravalent dengue vaccine. Although partially effective, once licensed, its introduction can be a public health priority in heavily affected countries because of the perceived public health importance of dengue. This review explores the most immediate economic considerations of introducing a new dengue vaccine and evaluates the published economic analyses of dengue vaccination. Findings indicate that the current economic evidence base is of limited utility to support country-level decisions on dengue vaccine introduction. There are a handful of published cost-effectiveness studies and no country-specific costing studies to project the full resource requirements of dengue vaccine introduction. Country-level analytical expertise in economic analyses, another gap identified, needs to be strengthened to facilitate evidence-based decision-making on dengue vaccine introduction in endemic countries.