A needs-based methodology for allocating health care resources in Ontario, Canada: development and an application

A synthesis of recent analyses of human resources for health requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income OECD countries

BACKGROUND

Recognition of the importance of effective human resources for health (HRH) planning is evident in efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Health Workforce Alliance (GHWA) to facilitate, with partner organizations, the development of a global HRH strategy for the period 2016-2030. As part of efforts to inform the development of this strategy, the aims of this study, the first of a pair, were (a) to conduct a rapid review of recent analyses of HRH requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income countries who are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and (b) to identify a methodology to determine future HRH requirements for these countries.

METHODS

A systematic search of peer-reviewed literature, targeted website searches, and multi-stage reference mining were conducted. To supplement these efforts, an international Advisory Group provided additional potentially relevant documents. All documents were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria and reviewed using a standardized data extraction tool.

RESULTS

In total, 224 documents were included in the review. The HRH supply in the included countries is generally expected to grow, but it is not clear whether that growth will be adequate to meet health care system objectives in the future. Several recurring themes regarding factors of importance in HRH planning were evident across the documents reviewed, such as aging populations and health workforces as well as changes in disease patterns, models of care delivery, scopes of practice, and technologies in health care. However, the most common HRH planning approaches found through the review do not account for most of these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence base on HRH labour markets in high-income OECD countries, although large and growing, does not provide a clear picture of the expected future HRH situation in these countries. Rather than HRH planning methods and analyses being guided by explicit HRH policy questions, most of the reviewed studies appeared to derive HRH policy questions based on predetermined planning methods. Informed by the findings of this review, a methodology to estimate future HRH requirements for these countries is described.

Not enough doctors or not enough needs? Refocusing health workforce planning from providers and services to populations and needs

The importance of allocating services in accordance with population needs is well-established. Needs-based approaches to geographical resource allocation were established in the National Health Service in the UK in the 1970s, but the role of population needs has not extended to planning for the quantity and mix of health care services or for the providers required to deliver these services. We present a framework that integrates health service and workforce planning focused on responding to population needs. Using data from the General Household Survey for England over the period 1985-2006, we illustrate trends in health needs and service use per capita. Despite needs per capita falling, service use has increased. Rates of increase in service use are greater among those with less needs illustrating that, in the absence of appropriate planning methods, increases in service use may result from supplier influence rather than policy decisions.

Learning from the census: the Socio-economic Factor Index (SEFI) and health outcomes in Manitoba

OBJECTIVES

Using data from the Canadian census, researchers at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy sought to create an area-based socio-economic measure (ABSM). The degree of association between the ABSM and health was evaluated.

METHODS

Values on several census variables (including income, education, employment and family structure) were captured at the enumeration-area or dissemination-area level and submitted to a principal components factor analysis to create three ABSMs: an updated version of the Socio-economic Factor Index (SEFI-2) and modified versions of Pampalon's material deprivation and social deprivation indices. Factor scores from these analyses were then compared with several population health measures: Premature Mortality Rate (PMR), Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL), life expectancy, and self-rated health.

RESULTS

SEFI-2 scores were strongly related not only to the other ABSMs but also to every measure of health status. The strongest correlations between an ABSM and health measure were for SEFI-2 and PYLL(r=0.85), and SEFI-2 and PMR (r=0.80). The weakest correlations were found with the social deprivation ABSM measure and the self-rated health measure.

CONCLUSIONS

ABSMs based on measures from the Canadian census are a valuable resource to population health researchers. Importantly, depending on the research question and reason for the inclusion of an ABSM, these composite measures may perform better than a simple measure of income alone. The ability to adjust for socio-economic status when assessing population health status or population health interventions contributes to the validity of conclusions drawn when conducting this type of research, and ABSMs may be able to substitute for area health status where it may not be easily determined.

Demographic Change and the Cost of Publicly Funded Health Care

This paper is concerned with questions relating to demographic change (population growth and aging) and its implications for operating a publicly funded health care system in a Canadian setting. It provides an assessment of how prospective population changes alone would affect the share of health care costs in total national income in Canada over the next several decades; it provides also an analysis of how actual patterns of hospital service provision changed in Ontario over the last decade in response to budgetary restrictions in a period of rising demand for services. Finally, a case is made for viewing health care as an integrated system; a description is provided of a set of computer-based models that have been developed to facilitate analysis of the health care system, and illustrative projections are discussed.

A Population-Based Analysis of Manitoba's Nursing Home Sector

This paper describes the nursing home component of the population-based health information system developed in Manitoba, and four years (1989/90 to 1992/93) of data produced by this information system. The study presents regional comparisons of nursing home bed ratios, admissions per 1,000 elderly, days of care per capita, mean expected length of stay for new admissions and median length of waiting time prior to admission. Selected hospital indicators for long-stay patients are also presented. The study indicates that a population-based information system is a useful tool for managing the nursing home sector by highlighting the degree to which a province achieves distributional equity and equality of access to nursing home beds.

Health human resources planning and the production of health: development of an extended analytical framework for needs-based health human resources planning

Health human resources planning is generally based on estimating the effects of demographic change on the supply of and requirements for healthcare services. In this article, we develop and apply an extended analytical framework that incorporates explicitly population health needs, levels of service to respond to health needs, and provider productivity as additional variables in determining the future requirements for the levels and mix of healthcare providers. Because the model derives requirements for providers directly from the requirements for services, it can be applied to a wide range of different provider types and practice structures including the public health workforce. By identifying the separate determinants of provider requirements, the analytical framework avoids the "illusions of necessity" that have generated continuous increases in provider requirements. Moreover, the framework enables policy makers to evaluate the basis of, and justification for, increases in the numbers of provider and increases in education and training programs as a method of increasing supply. A broad range of policy instruments is identified for responding to gaps between estimated future requirements for care and the estimated future capacity of the healthcare workforce.

A spatial analysis of the determinants of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in Ontario (1992-2001)

Previous research on the determinants of pneumonia and influenza has focused primarily on the role of individual level biological and behavioural risk factors resulting in partial explanations and largely curative approaches to reducing the disease burden. This study examines the geographic patterns of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations and the role that broad ecologic-level factors may have in determining them. We conducted a county level, retrospective, ecologic study of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in the province of Ontario, Canada, between 1992 and 2001 (N=241,803), controlling for spatial dependence in the data. Non-spatial and spatial regression models were estimated using a range of environmental, social, economic, behavioural, and health care predictors. Results revealed low education to be positively associated with hospitalization rates over all age groups and both genders. The Aboriginal population variable was also positively associated in most models except for the 65+-year age group. Behavioural factors (daily smoking and heavy drinking), environmental factors (passive smoking, poor housing, temperature), and health care factors (influenza vaccination) were all significantly associated in different age and gender-specific models. The use of spatial error regression models allowed for unbiased estimation of regression parameters and their significance levels. These findings demonstrate the importance of broad age and gender-specific population-level factors in determining pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations, and illustrate the need for place and population-specific policies that take these factors into consideration.

Pharmaceutical use among older adults: using administrative data to examine medication-related issues

Medication use is recognized as the least expensive, most cost-effective health care intervention. In older adults this is especially important, as they are the largest consumer of prescription medications. We describe the use of a linked data set including pharmaceutical, medical, and hospital claims to examine pharmaceutical use in the population of older adults and then give several examples of its application. Indicators to describe the population's overall use of medication and the appropriate use of specific medication have been developed. Indicators of appropriate use are characterized using the dispensation of benzodiazepines to older adults.We have found that a significant proportion of new users of benzodiazepines are still prescribed a long-acting version (over 10%), signifying potential inappropriate use. The data are also able to describe some significant outcomes from the use of pharmaceuticals such a death, fracture, and population-based clinical measures where available.

An exploratory spatial analysis of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in Ontario by age and gender

Pneumonia and influenza represent a significant public health burden in Canada and abroad. Knowledge of how this burden varies geographically provides clues to understanding the determinants of these illnesses, and insight into the effective management of health-care resources. We conducted a retrospective, population-based, ecological-level study to assess age- and gender-specific spatial patterns of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in the province of Ontario, Canada from 1992 to 2001. Results revealed marked variability in hospitalization rates by age, as well as clear and statistically significant patterns of high rates in northern rural counties and low rates in southern urban counties. A moderate yet significant level of positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I=0.21, P<0.05) was found in the global data, with significant, age-specific clusters of high values or 'hot spots' identified in several northern counties. Findings illustrate the need for geographically focused prevention strategies, and resource and service allocation policies informed by regional and population-specific demands.

Municipal socioeconomic status and mortality in Japan: sex and age differences, and trends in 1973-1998

The purpose of this study was to examine the sex and age differences and the time trends in the association between municipal socioeconomic status (SES) and all-cause mortality across Japan from 1973 to 1998. Sex-specific mortality of municipalities (N=3319 in 1995) by age groups (total, under 75-year, and over 75-year populations) was linked to municipal SES indicators related to income, education, unemployment and living space, and two SES composite indices formulated by principle component analysis (Index 1 related to lower income and education, and Index 2 related to unemployment and overcrowding). The relation was assessed using mortality gradients by SES quintiles and Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression. The results showed that a lower SES was related to higher mortality for all SES indicators and composite indices. The mortality gradient was steeper for the under 75-year population than the total and over 75-year populations, and the relation between mortality and income- and education-related indicators/index was stronger for males than for females. The time trend showed an increase in the relation for Index 2, while a decrease for Index 1. This study demonstrated that lower municipal SES had an adverse influence on population health, and the influence was marked for males and premature death. Although a substantial health disadvantage still remained in lower SES areas, the impact of SES factors on geographical health variation changed over time; the association with mortality has weakened for income and education, while it has strengthened for unemployment and living space.

Mortality comparisons of First Nations to all other Manitobans: a provincial population-based look at health inequalities by region and gender

BACKGROUND

To examine inequalities in health status of Registered First Nations Manitobans compared to all other Manitobans.

METHODS

Three mortality indicators--premature mortality rate (PMR) defined as an age- and sex-adjusted rate of death before age 75 years; life expectancy from birth; and potential years of life lost (PYLL)--are compared between Registered First Nations (RFN) people and all other Manitobans (AOM) by geographical areas of Manitoba. Data were derived from the Population Health Research Data Repository, linked to the federal Status Verification System (SVS) files for the years 1995 through 1999.

RESULTS

First Nations experienced double the PMR compared to all other Manitobans (6.6 versus 3.3 deaths per thousand, p < 0.05), an eight-year gap in life expectancy (males: 68.4 versus 76.1 years; females 73.2 versus 81.4 years), and over twice the PYLL (males 158.3 versus 62.5 years of life lost per thousand; females 103.3 versus 36.5). RFN male life expectancy was geographically-related (better health status in the north), and inversely related to the corresponding regional AOM life expectancy (r = -0.61, 9 df, one-tailed, p < 0.03). As regional percentage of RFN decreased, male life expectancy decreased (r = 0.77, 9 df, one-tailed, p < 0.003). In contrast, RFN female indicators showed no such relationship.

CONCLUSION

The inequality in health status between RFN and all other Manitobans is large, but also shows differential geographical and gender effects.

Health services use of Manitoba First Nations people: is it related to underlying need?

BACKGROUND

To compare health status and health services use of Registered First Nations to all other Manitobans (AOM). If the Canadian health care system is meeting underlying need, those experiencing the greatest burden of morbidity and mortality should show the highest rates of health service use.

METHODS

Registered First Nations' (n = 85,959) hospitalization and physician visit rates were compared to rates of all other Manitobans (n = 1,054,422) for fiscal year 1998/99. The underlying "need" for health care was measured using premature mortality (PMR), an age- and sex-adjusted rate of death before age 75. Data were derived from Manitoba's Population Health Research Data Repository, linked to federal Status Verification System files to determine Registered First Nations status.

RESULTS

Registered First Nations' PMR was double the rate of all other Manitobans (6.61 vs. 3.30 deaths per thousand, p < 0.05). Registered First Nations ambulatory physician visit rates (6.13 vs. 4.85 visits per person, p < 0.05), hospital separation rates (0.348 vs. 0.156 separations per person, p < 0.05) and total days of hospital care (1.75 vs. 1.05 days per person, p < 0.05) were higher than AOM rates. Consultation rates (first visit to a specialist) were slightly higher for Registered First Nations (0.29 vs. 0.27 visits per person, p < 0.05), and overall specialist visit rates were lower (0.895 vs. 1.284 visits per person, p < 0.05) compared with AOM.

CONCLUSION

Although hospitalization and ambulatory physician visit rates for First Nations reflect their poorer health status, consult and specialist rates do not reflect the underlying need for health care services.

Estimating nursing home bed demand: 20-year projection from administrative data and stakeholder input

We describe methods to project the requirement for nursing home beds in Manitoba until 2020. Three methods were developed: Trend, Recent Use, and Combined. The first two methods yielded widely divergent projections, differing by 3,400 beds. Stakeholder feedback and theoretical analysis suggested the third (Combined) method, the arithmetic mean of the first two. Model testing found the Combined method to be the most accurate. The projections have been used by RHAs for their planning activities.

A framework for modelling differences in regional mortality over time

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To present a conceptual framework for testing differences in mortality for small geographical areas over time using the generalised linear model with generalised estimating equations. This framework can be used to test whether the magnitude of regional inequalities in health status has changed over time.

DESIGN

A Poisson regression model for correlated data is used to investigate the relation of population health status to demographic, geographical, and temporal explanatory variables. Differences between regions at one or more points in time are tested with linear contrasts.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A case example shows the application of the framework. All cause mortality and cause specific mortality were compared for three rural regions of Manitoba, Canada between 1985 and 1999. The data were obtained from Vital Statistics records and the provincial health registry.

MAIN RESULTS

Tests of linear contrasts on the regression coefficients for time and region show an increase in the magnitude of the difference in the risk of all cause mortality and heart disease mortality between northern and southern regions of the province for the 1985-1989 and 1995-1999 time periods. No significant differences are identified for cancer, injury, or respiratory disease mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed framework enables testing of a variety of hypotheses about differences between regions and time periods and can be applied to other measures of population health status.

Geographic disparity in premature mortality in Ontario, 1992-1996

BACKGROUND: Standardized mortality ratios are used to identify geographic areas with higher or lower mortality than expected. This article examines geographic disparity in premature mortality in Ontario, Canada, at three geographic levels of population and considers factors that may underlie variations in premature mortality across geographic areas. All-cause, sex and disease chapter specific premature mortality were analyzed at the regional, district and public health unit level to determine the extent of geographic variation. Standardized mortality ratios for persons aged 0-74 years were calculated to identify geographic areas with significantly higher or lower premature mortality than expected, using Ontario death rates as the basis for the calculation of expected deaths in the local population. Data are also presented from the household component of the 1996/97 National Population Health Survey and from the 1996 Statistics Canada Census. RESULTS: Results showed approximately 20% higher than expected all-cause premature mortality for males and females in the North region. However, disparity in all-cause premature mortality in Ontario was most pronounced at the public health unit level, ranging from 20% lower than expected to 30% higher than expected. Premature mortality disparities were largely influenced by neoplasms, circulatory diseases, injuries and poisoning, respiratory diseases and digestive diseases, which accounted for more than 80% of all premature deaths. Premature mortality disparities were also more pronounced for disease chapter specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Geographic disparities in premature mortality are clearly greater at the small area level. Geographic disparities in premature mortality undoubtedly reflect the underlying distribution of population health determinants such as health related behaviours, social, economic and environmental influences.

An evidence-based estimate of the appropriate radiotherapy utilization rate for colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require RT are based almost entirely on expert opinion. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of incident cases of colorectal cancer that should receive RT using an evidence-based approach.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify indications for RT for colorectal cancer, and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of colorectal cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error was estimated by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

It was estimated that 23.7% +/- 1.0% of colorectal cancer cases develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness: 20.9% +/- 1.1% as part of their initial treatment, and 2.8% +/- 0.5% later for recurrence or progression. We estimated that 7.1% +/- 0.8% of colon carcinoma patients will require RT at some point in the course of the illness: 4.0% +/- 0.7% as part of their initial treatment, and 3.1% +/- 0.4% later for recurrence or progression. We estimated that 72.3% +/- 1.0% of rectal carcinoma patients will require RT at some point in the course of the illness: 69.6% +/- 0.9% as part of their initial treatment and 2.7% +/- 0.2% later for recurrence or progression.

CONCLUSIONS

This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of radiation services, and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. By completing such evaluations in the major cancer sites, it will be possible to estimate the appropriate RT treatment rate for the cancer population as a whole.

Environmental influences on healthcare expenditures: an exploratory analysis from Ontario, Canada

STUDY OBJECTIVE

This paper explores the relation between healthcare expenditures (HCEs) and environmental variables in Ontario, Canada.

DESIGN

The authors used a sequential two stage regression model to control for variables that may influence HCEs and for the possibility of endogenous relations. The analysis relies on cross sectional ecological data from the 49 counties of Ontario.

MAIN RESULTS

The results show that, after control for other variables that may influence health expenditures, both total toxic pollution output and per capita municipal environmental expenditures have significant associations with health expenditures. Counties with higher pollution output tend to have higher per capita HCEs, while those that spend more on defending environmental quality have lower expenditures on health care.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of our findings are twofold. Firstly, sound investments in public health and environmental protection have external benefits in the form of reduced HCEs. Combined with the other benefits such as recreational values, investments in environmental protection probably yield net social benefits. Secondly, health policy that excludes consideration of environmental quality may eventually result in increased expenditures. These results suggest a need to broaden the cost containment debate to ensure environmental determinants of health receive attention as potential complements to conventional cost control policies.

Embedding child health within a framework of regional health: population health status and sociodemographic indicators

OBJECTIVE

The description of regional variation in children's health requires regional population-based context. But what is the best way to measure the health of a region's population?

METHODS

The use of two indicators is described--one a health status measure and the other a measure of socioeconomic wellbeing. It is well known that the population's premature mortality rate (PMR), the age/sex-adjusted rate of death before age 75 years, is highly related to overall health status of an area's residents. Socioeconomic characteristics of an area's residents are also indicative (and likely causative) of health status differences.

RESULTS

The Socioeconomic Factor Index (SEFI) was developed at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, using a Principal Components Analysis of census data. PMR and SEFI are highly correlated (Spearman's correlation coefficient r = 0.85, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

PMR can be used as a surrogate measure for both the health status and socioeconomic well-being of regional populations in Manitoba.

Prescription medications in Manitoba children: are there regional differences?

BACKGROUND

Population-based studies of pharmaceutical use in children provide information on disease prevalence, physician practice and adherence to treatment. We undertook an evaluation of regional differences in prescription drug use by Manitoba children.

METHODS

Using Manitoba's population-based prescription data for 1998/99, the prevalence of children receiving prescriptions for antibiotics, analgesics, iron supplements, and four classes of psychotropic drugs was reported for Regional Health Authorities and Winnipeg Community Areas, ranked by a measure of population healthiness, the premature mortality rate (PMR). Prevalence rates were also reported by census-based neighbourhood income areas.

RESULTS

60% of children received at least one prescription in 1998/99. Antibiotics, antiasthmatics, analgesics, antidepressants, and psychostimulants were the most commonly dispensed drugs. Prescription use of antibiotics, iron supplements, analgesics, antidepressants, antipsychotics and anxiolytics was highest in low income, urban neighbourhoods. Few associations between a region's PMR and prescription utilization were observed, but children living in regions with the least healthy populations were more likely to use antibiotics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and anxiolytics. Psychostimulant use was unrelated to neighbourhood income, but highest rates were documented in some of the healthiest Winnipeg neighbourhoods.

CONCLUSION

We documented regional variation in prescription use which may be related to differences in health, physician practice or child use.

Using a population-based health information system to study child health

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes the population-based analyses of measures of child health status used throughout this supplement.

METHODS

The articles in this supplement examine health-related data for children 0 to 19 years. Most analyses cover the period from April 1, 1994 to March 31, 1999. Administrative and survey data were used to assess child health and well-being. For regional comparisons, data were broken down by subregions of Manitoba, called Regional Health Authorities (RHAs), and neighbourhoods of Winnipeg, called Winnipeg Community Areas (Winnipeg CAs). The premature mortality rate (PMR) was used as a proxy of the overall health of the population. All graphs comparing rates among RHAs and Winnipeg CAs rank these subregions in the same order, from lowest to highest PMR. Income was operationalized by dividing the province's population into urban and rural quintiles based upon household income. Other aspects of methodology are discussed.

RESULTS

Results are presented in the articles that follow this one.

CONCLUSION

The relationships between key child health indicators and geographic and socioeconomic factors for Manitoba children are discussed in the articles following this one.

Community resources and determinants of the future health of Manitobans

BACKGROUND

Life history studies in health show that some of the key determinants of health inequalities lie in biological and social experiences at the earliest times of life. The objectives of this research were to describe the regional distribution of childhood determinants of adult health, such as school achievement, and the environments which contribute to their development.

METHODS

Using Manitoba data from the National Population Health Survey, the National Longitudinal Survey on Children and Youth, the Department of Education, Training and Youth, the Department of Family Services and Housing, the Library Association website and the Agriculture and Food website, the regional distribution of Grade 3 standards test scores and neighbourhood resources such as child care services, libraries, sports participation and food costs were determined for 12 Regional Health Authorities and 12 Winnipeg Community Areas, ranked by a measure of population healthiness, the premature mortality rate. Findings were also reported by income level and larger geographic regions.

RESULTS

Children living in neighbourhoods with less healthy populations were more likely to have poorer school performance, as indicated by Grade 3 math standards test scores. They were-also more likely to change schools, less likely to participate in sports, and had decreased access to affordable food and licenced day care. They had similar access to library books as children living in more healthy neighbourhoods, although book lending rates were not measured.

CONCLUSION

We documented regional variation in the availability of resources to support healthy childhood development.

Assessing health status in Manitoba children: acute and chronic conditions

BACKGROUND

Numerous child health status measures have been developed, ranging from assessments of physical and mental health to activity continuums. Our objective was to report the regional distribution of physical morbidity among children in Manitoba.

METHODS

Using Manitoba's population-based prescription and health care data for 1998/99, the prevalence of children with lower respiratory tract infections, four chronic conditions (asthma, cardiovascular disease, Type 1 diabetes mellitus and seizure disorders) and physical disabilities, including spina bifida and cerebral palsy, was determined for 12 Regional Health Authorities and 12 Winnipeg Community Areas, ranked by a measure of population healthiness, the premature mortality rate (PMR). Prescription rates were also reported by neighbourhood income quintile, derived from census data.

RESULTS

Hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection was highest in infants (6%) and increased with successive decreases in neighbourhood income or in the population healthiness of a region. On the basis of a physician diagnosis or prescription drug for asthma, 10% of school-age children had asthma. Asthma treatment rates in northern Manitoba were substantially lower than in Winnipeg. Treatment rates for cardiovascular conditions, Type I diabetes and seizure disorders approached 1% in adolescents and there were no regional differences in the distribution of these conditions. The prevalence of physical disability was highest in northern Manitoba.

CONCLUSION

A minority of Manitoba children suffer from chronic and serious acute health problems in childhood, but the burden of illness is not evenly distributed among children.

A matter of life and death for Manitoba's children: an overview of birth rates and mortality rates

OBJECTIVE

To determine the fertility and child mortality rates for Manitoba.

METHODS

Fertility and mortality rates were derived from the Population Health Research Data Repository and Vital Statistics, for 1994 through 1998. Data are presented by 12 Regional Health Authorities (RHAs), 12 Winnipeg Community Areas (CAs) and by income quintile. Each indicator is correlated with PMR (the age- and sex-adjusted premature mortality rate, i.e., death before age 75) and SEFI (Socioeconomic Factor Index, a standardized composite index), both considered proxies for overall health and socioeconomic well-being of populations.

RESULTS

Manitoba's total fertility rate was 1.77 children per woman, ranging from 1.62 to 3.15 by RHA, and 1.21 to 2.30 by Winnipeg CA. Manitoba's infant mortality rate was 6.6/1000 (or 5.5/1000 excluding < 500 g or < 20 weeks gestation), ranging from 4.5 to 10.2 by RHA (4.2 to 9.8 exclusive), and 3.7 to 8.4 by Winnipeg CA (2.7 to 6.7). There was a gradient of infant mortality by income quintile (p < 0.001), with double the rate comparing lowest to highest. Child mortality rates varied geographically and by gender, with northern children at greatest risk. Injury was the leading cause of death (52% for ages 1 through 9, 75% for ages 15 to 19).

CONCLUSION

Fertility rates, as well as infant and child mortality rates, were positively associated with PMR and SEFI, with substantial geographical variation.

Tonsillectomy rates for Manitoba children: temporal and spatial variations

This study compared tonsillectomy rates for Manitoba children across geographic regions and over time. Shortly after the publication of clinical guidelines for tonsillectomy, provincial rates of this procedure dropped by over 25% between 1994/95 and 1996/97. By 1998/99, rates for non-Winnipeg children had increased to pre-guideline levels, whereas the rates for Winnipeg children remained lower. Significant regional variation existed in all years examined, suggesting that quality of care remains an issue for this procedure.

Health service use in the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority: variations across areas in relation to health and socioeconomic status

The use of healthcare services in Winnipeg is examined to determine whether groups who appear to have a higher need for medical care actually get more care. Despite universal coverage, considerable variation in service use rates exists. Most of the basic healthcare services are provided in accordance with need as measured by premature mortality rates. Nevertheless, visits to specialist physicians, a variety of high profile procedures, and screening and preventative services appear not to be provided in accordance with need.

Evidence-based estimate of appropriate radiotherapy utilization rate for prostate cancer

PURPOSE

Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require radiotherapy (RT) are based almost entirely on expert opinion. The objective of this study was to use an evidence-based approach to estimate the proportion of incident cases of prostate cancer that should receive RT at any point in the evolution of the illness.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify indications for RT for prostate cancer and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of prostate cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error using alternative sources of information was estimated by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

It was estimated that 61.2% +/- 5.6% of prostate cancer cases develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness. The plausible range for this rate was 57.3%-69.8% on sensitivity analysis. Of all prostate cancer patients, 32.2% +/- 3.8% should receive RT in their initial treatment and 29.0% +/- 4.1% later for recurrence or progression. The proportion of cases that ever require RT is risk grouping dependent; 43.9% +/- 2.2% in low-risk disease, 68.7% +/- 3.5% in intermediate-risk disease; and 79.0% +/- 3.8% in high-risk locoregional disease. For metastatic disease, the predicted rate was 66.4% +/- 0.3%.

CONCLUSION

This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of radiation services and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. By completing such evaluations in major cancer sites, it will be possible to estimate the appropriate RT rate for the cancer population as a whole.

Assessing population health care need using a claims-based ACG morbidity measure: a validation analysis in the Province of Manitoba

OBJECTIVES

To assess the ability of an Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG)-based morbidity measure to assess the overall health service needs of populations. Data Sources/Study Setting. Three population-based secondary data sources: registration and health service utilization data from fiscal year 1995-1996; mortality data from vital statistics reports from 1996-1999; and Canadian census data. The study included all continuously enrolled residents in the universal health care plan in Manitoba.

STUDY DESIGN

Using 60 small geographic areas as the units of analysis, we compared a population-based "ACG morbidity index," derived from individual ACG assignments in fiscal year 1995-1996, with the standardized mortality ratio (ages < 75 years) for 1996-1999. Key variables included a population-based socioeconomic status measure and age- and sex-standardized physician utilization ratios.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

The ACGs were assigned based on the complement of diagnoses assigned to persons on physician claims and hospital separation abstracts. The ACG index was created by weighting the ACGs using average health care expenditures.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The ACG morbidity index had a strong positive linear relationship with the subsequent rate of premature death in the small areas of Manitoba. The ACG index was able to explain the majority of the relationships between mortality and both socioeconomic status and physician utilization.

CONCLUSIONS

In Manitoba, ACGs are closely related to premature mortality, commonly accepted as the best single indicator for health service need in populations. Issues in applying ACGs in settings where needs adjustment is a primary objective are discussed.

An evidence-based estimate of appropriate radiotherapy utilization rate for breast cancer

PURPOSE

Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require radiotherapy (RT) are based almost entirely on expert opinion. We sought to use an evidence-based approach to estimate the proportion of incident cases of breast cancer that will require RT at any point in the evolution of the illness.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We undertook a systematic review of the literature to identify indications for RT for breast cancer and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of breast cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error was estimated by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

It was estimated that 66.4% +/- 4.8% of breast cancer patients develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness. The plausible range for this rate was 56.3%-72.4% on sensitivity analysis. Of all breast cancer patients, 57.3% +/- 4.7% require RT in their initial treatment and 9.1% +/- 1.0% do so later for recurrence or progression. The proportion of patients who ever require RT is stage dependent: 39.8% +/- 1.1% in ductal carcinoma in situ; 68.6% +/- 4.1% in Stage I invasive carcinoma; 81.5% +/- 2.3% in Stage II; 95.3% +/- 0.3% in Stage III; and 63.7% +/- 0.3% in Stage IV.

CONCLUSION

This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of RT services and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. By completing such evaluations in the major cancer sites, it will be possible to estimate the appropriate RT treatment rate for the cancer population as a whole.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

OBJECTIVES

To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses.

DESIGN

Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination.

SETTING

Northern Ireland.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Intensity of use of inpatient services.

RESULTS

After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Health economic evaluation

A glossary is presented on terms of health economic evaluation. Definitions are suggested for the more common concepts and terms.

Assessing socioeconomic effects on different sized populations: to weight or not to weight?

OBJECTIVE

Researchers in health care often use ecological data from population aggregates of different sizes. This paper deals with a fundamental methodological issue relating to the use of such data. This study investigates the question of whether, in doing analyses involving different areas, the estimating equations should be weighted by the populations of those areas. It is argued that the correct answer to that question turns on some deep epistemological issues that have been little considered in the public health literature.

DESIGN

To illustrate the issue, an example is presented that estimates entitlements to primary physician visits in Manitoba, Canada based on age/gender and socioeconomic status using both population weighted and unweighted regression analyses.

SETTING AND SUBJECTS

The entire population of the province furnish the data. Primary care visits to physicians based on administrative data, demographics and a measure of socioeconomic status (SERI), based on census data, constitute the measures.

RESULTS

Significant differences between weighted and unweighted analyses are shown to emerge, with the weighted analyses biasing entitlements towards the more populous and advantaged population.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors endorse the position that, in certain problems, data analyses involving population aggregates unweighted by population size are more appropriate and normatively justifiable than are analyses weighted by population. In particular, when the aggregated units make sense, theoretically, as units, it is more appropriate to carry out the analyses without weighting by the size of the units. Unweighted analyses yield more valid estimations.

Estimating the need for radiotherapy for lung cancer: an evidence-based, epidemiologic approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Current estimates of the proportion of cancer patients who will require radiotherapy (RT) are based almost entirely on expert opinion. The objective of this study was to use an evidence-based approach to estimate the proportion of incident cases of lung cancer that will require RT at any point in the evolution of the illness.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify indications for RT for lung cancer, and to ascertain the level of evidence that supported each indication. An epidemiologic approach was then used to estimate the incidence of each indication for RT in a typical North American population of lung cancer patients. The effect of sampling error on the estimated appropriate rate of RT was calculated mathematically, and the effect of systematic error, was estimated by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

It was shown that 53.6% +/- 3.3% of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) cases develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the course of the illness, 45.4% +/- 4.3% in their initial treatment, and 8.2% +/- 1.5% later for recurrence of progression. Overall, 64.3% +/- 4.7% of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cases require RT, 45.9% +/- 4.3% in their initial treatment, and 18.3% +/- 1.8% later in the course of the illness. The proportion of NSCLC cases that ever require RT is stage dependent; 41.0% +/- 5.5% in Stage I; 54.5% +/- 6.5% in Stage II; 83.5% +/- 10.6% in Stage III; and 65.7% +/- 7.6% in Stage IV. In total, 61.0% +/- 3.9% of all patients with lung cancer will develop one or more indications for RT at some point in the illness, 44.6% +/- 3.6% in their initial treatment, and 16.5% +/- 1.5% later for recurrence or progression.

CONCLUSION

This method provides a rational starting point for the long-term planning of radiation services, and for the audit of access to RT at the population level. We now plan to extend this study to the other major cancer sites to enable us to estimate the appropriate RT treatment rate for the cancer population as a whole.

Monitoring health reform: a report card approach

During the past several years, budget cuts have forced hospitals in several countries to change the way they deliver care. Gilson (Gilson, L. (1998).

DISCUSSION

In defence and pursuit of equity. Social Science & Medicine, 47(12), 1891-1896) has argued that, while health reforms are designed to improve efficiency, they have considerable potential to harm equity in the delivery of health care services. It is essential to monitor the impact of health reforms, not only to ensure the balance between equity and efficiency, but also to determine the effect of reforms on such things as access to care and the quality of care delivered. This paper proposes a framework for monitoring these and other indicators that may be affected by health care reform. Application of this framework is illustrated with data from Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Despite the closure of almost 24% of the hospital beds in Winnipeg between 1992 and 1996, access to care and quality of care remained generally unchanged. Improvements in efficiency occurred without harming the equitable delivery of health care services. Given our increasing understanding of the weak links between health care and health, improving efficiency within the health care system may actually be a prerequisite for addressing equity issues in health.

Needs-based primary medical care capitation: development and evaluation of alternative approaches

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate alternative methods of adjusting primary medical care capitation payments for variations in relative need for health care among enrolled practice populations.

METHODS

We developed alternative needs-based capitation formulae and applied them to a sample of capitation-funded primary care practices to assess each formula's performance against a reference standard of capitation payments based on age, sex and self-assessed health status of the enrolled populations. The alternative formulae were based on: (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex and individually-measured socioeconomic characteristics; (3) age, sex and socioeconomic characteristics imputed from census data for enrollees' neighbourhood of residence; (4) age, sex and standardized mortality ratio for enrollees' neighbourhood of residence.

RESULTS

Age/sex-adjusted capitation payments for the six practices studied ranged from 10% higher to 18% lower than the reference standard payments. Capitation formulae based on socioeconomic and mortality data did not perform consistently better than the current age/sex-based formula.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary medical care capitation payments adjusted only for age and sex do not reflect the relative health care needs of enrolled practice populations. Our alternative formulae based on socioeconomic and mortality data also failed to reflect relative needs. Methods that use other approaches to adjusting for differences in relative need among enrolled populations should be investigated.

Using the POPULIS framework for interprovincial comparisons of expenditures on health care. Population Health Information System

OBJECTIVES

Motivated by Manitoba Health's desire to know how health spending in Manitoba compared with other provinces, this study is a descriptive project designed to inform the health policy process by comparing indicators of need and expenditure across Canada.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Population characteristics that are known to influence the need for health care constitute the comparative data categories.

FINDINGS

In terms of all five health status indicators and five of eight socioeconomic indicators, Manitoba ranked medium (fourth to seventh of 10 provinces) or average. Demographic characteristics placed Manitoba second to Saskatchewan in proportion of both elderly residents and Registered Indians. This is notable, because both groups traditionally have high health needs. With provincial characteristics established, the second part of the study compares provincial per capita health expenditure data with expected need for health care services.

RESULTS

Overall, the study finds provincial health expenditures are not related to health care need indicators. Saskatchewan is a case in point; despite having similar population characteristics to Manitoba, Saskatchewan has a population with good health status and lower health care expenditures. This offers a model that invites further exploration.

CONCLUSIONS

At the provincial level the amount of health care spending is not positively related to the need for health care.

An assessment of the potential for repatriating care from urban to rural Manitoba

OBJECTIVES

Following the closure of Manitoba hospital beds, the Manitoba government adopted a strategy of shifting hospital care from more expensive urban hospitals to less expensive rural facilities. With this project, Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) studied the implications of the stated policy of "repatriation."

RESEARCH DESIGN

The project first involved examining population-based patterns of hospital utilization to define hospital service areas for 10 large rural hospitals. Three different hospital service area definitions were developed for use in sensitivity testing. Rates of overall use of hospital services, indicators of need for health care, and patterns of use of urban facilities are compared for these hospital service areas. Using a large rural hospital as a benchmark, patterns of adult surgical, adult medical, pediatric, and obstetric care were examined for the hospital service areas. Number and percent of cases provided by the index hospital and by urban hospitals were compared, to assess the feasibility and the potential impact of redirection of care to the benchmark level.

CONCLUSIONS

Although in theory a significant percentage of care delivered to rural residents by Winnipeg hospitals might be redirected to rural institutions, the project raised issues of feasibility. Moreover, it identified that most of the redirected cases could be accommodated within existing capacity.

Issues in planning for specialist physicians

OBJECTIVES

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation worked in support of a provincial Physician Resource Committee to address questions pertinent to assessing Manitoba's supply of specialist physicians.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Because there was no direct method of determining whether the province's supply of specialists was adequate, three types of evidence were reviewed: the supply of specialists relative to recommended population/physician ratios; the supply of specialists relative to other Canadian provinces; and the level of care delivered by specialists in Manitoba relative to other provinces. Four additional questions were addressed: is a problem developing from the aging of Manitoba's specialist physicians? and will the supply of specialists be sufficient to keep up with the aging of the population? How well do specialists serve as a provincial resource? and how well do specialists serve high-need populations?

Managing health services: how the Population Health Information System (POPULIS) works for policymakers

OBJECTIVES

University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for answering such questions as: Which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served? or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse? or is it related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and countries, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

The population's use of pharmaceuticals

OBJECTIVES

In this study, population-based analysis is used to study the extent to which characteristics such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and region of residence are associated with different patterns of pharmaceutical use. It also includes an examination of whether pharmaceutical use is responsive to differential health needs across the population.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Indicators of access, intensity of use, and total expenditures are used to describe Manitobans' use of pharmaceutical agents, consistent with the POPULIS framework.

MEASURES

Several rate-based measures have been developed for this purpose: the number of residents who are pharmaceutical users; the number of prescriptions dispensed; the number of different drugs dispensed; the total number of defined daily doses (DDDs) dispensed; and expenditures for pharmaceuticals. The DDD measurement provides a cumulative assessment of total drug use (i.e., across multiple drug categories) and is a useful indicator of a population's total drug exposure.

RESULTS

Patterns of use of pharmaceuticals follow patterns similar to those patterns in earlier POPULIS studies on health care access, intensity, and expenditures. In areas where health is generally poorer, a greater number of prescriptions are dispensed. The highest use of pharmaceuticals also was found in the lower-income quintiles and among those at greatest socioeconomic risk, traditionally those with the poorest health status.

CONCLUSIONS

This kind of population-based pharmaceutical information can help monitor the effectiveness of policy initiatives, as well as serve to better manage pharmaceutical use within the health care system.

Needs-based planning for generalist physicians

OBJECTIVES

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) collaborated with a provincially-appointed Physician Resource Committee in an assessment of provincial physician resources.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Beginning with map-based analyses of physician supply and contacts across the province, compared with the health and socioeconomic characteristics of local populations, the study moved to a needs-based, regression-based approach to physician resource planning.

RESULTS

The results challenged the popular belief that Manitoba suffers from an increasing shortage of physicians. A handful of high-need, low-supply and low-use areas are identified, as is the expensive surplus of generalist physicians in Winnipeg. (Generalist physicians include general and family practitioners as well as general internists and pediatricians.) No relationship between physician supply and health characteristics of populations, or between high physician supply and low hospital use patterns were found. Given the Committee's interest in what drives high physician contact rates, analyses of visit patterns of hypertensive patients were undertaken. We found that patients who had more complex medical conditions made more contacts, but that after controlling for this and other key patient characteristics, the patient's primary care physician's patient recall rate was a strong influence on how frequently visits were made.

Adding up provincial expenditures on health care for Manitobans: a POPULIS project. Population Health Information System

OBJECTIVES

Using the POPULIS framework, this project estimated health care expenditures across the entire population of Manitoba for inpatient and outpatient hospital utilization, physician visits, mental health inpatient, and nursing home utilization.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This estimated expenditure information was then used to compare per capita expenditures relative to premature mortality rates across the various areas of Manitoba.

RESULTS

Considerable variation in health care expenditures was found, with those areas having high premature mortality rates also having higher health care expenditures.

Allocating resources in health care: alternative approaches to measuring needs in resource allocation formula in Ontario

Maintaining or improving the welfare of the population is a complex issue involving individual and collective actions and institutions. Despite questions regarding the relevance of health care systems to these aims, they remain vital policy and treatment arenas with respect to curative and preventative regimes. As a component of social welfare, health care resources should be distributed equitably, according to need for health care. This paper evaluates alternative indicators of health status within Ontario against self-reported health as a means of allocating health care resources. Proxies of need for health care include standardized mortality ratios (based on the population aged 0-64) and a socioeconomic based indicator. Mortality indicators are found to be more closely correlated with self-reported health status than the socioeconomic indicator, suggesting that mortality is better able to reflect variations in health status and health care needs.

Managing health services: how administrative data and population-based analyses can focus the agenda

University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for providing answers to such questions as: which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse or utilization related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision-makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics, and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and counties, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. A particularly interesting application to planning physician supply and distribution is discussed. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

Outcomes-based resource allocation for indigenous health services: a model for northern Australia?

Wide differentials continue to exist in mortality rates and other health outcomes between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. In the Northern Territory (NT), where Aborigines make up 24% of the population, the all-causes age-adjusted Standardised Mortality Ratio for Aborigines compared to non-Aborigines has remained above 3 since the late 1970s, with significant regional variations. During 1995 an expenditure analysis was undertaken for primary health care (PHC) services in different regions of the NT and compared to mortality ratios. At the same time a method for needs-based funding was being developed which could replace the existing historical funding arrangements. In the first instance, the application of a simplified version of this Resource Allocation Formula (RAF) resulted in a significant shift of resources for new prevention program funding to regions of relatively high mortality and low per capita PHC expenditure. However, developing RAFs to redistribute at the margin within the NT is likely to generate further inequities between losing NT programs and counterparts in other states. If outcomes-based resource allocation is to be meaningful nationally, the reference point for the RAF should be national average PHC expenditure rather than existing state averages. There is a need for a combined approach to outcomes-based planning which takes into account both the equity arguments of resource allocation models and efficacy arguments to maximise health gains. Some of these arguments are explored in this paper.

Has access to hospital improved for Aborigines in the northern territory?

One of the stated aims of Australia's health care system is to achieve equity of access to health care according to need for all Australians, with the ultimate goal of moving toward statistical equality of good health for all. This paper examines how, using routinely collected population health data, we might answer the question of whether access to hospital care for Aborigines in the Northern Territory (NT) improved in relation to access for non-Aborigines during the period 1979 to 1988. Some of the advantages and shortfalls of this approach are discussed and an 'index of access' is postulated. This index is shown to be moving towards 1 during the period, suggesting that access to hospitals has improved for Aborigines compared with non-Aborigines, but that a substantial shortfall still exists. While this index can be useful for measuring progress toward achieving the horizontal equity of equal access for equal need, the more difficult task of defining and measuring progress toward vertical equity goals with respect to the persistent and gross inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians deserves priority.

A regional comparison of socioeconomic and health indices in a Canadian province

In most jurisdictions, information on socioeconomic attributes of geographic areas is readily available. As well, limited measures of health, such as mortality rates or indicators derived from health service use, are also routinely collected for geographically defined populations. In this paper we present a methodology for selecting and combining measures of area socioeconomic characteristics to produce a composite index which is relevant for health-related research. The performance of this composite index in this setting was consistent with deprivation indices developed in the United Kingdom, and showed strong associations with measures of population health status and health service utilization.

Total healthcare budget: assigning priority and level of asset allocation to the diagnosis and management of urologic diseases

During the past decade increasing concern has developed as to how money should best be allocated in the healthcare sector and to the different disciplines within health care. In the Western world, healthcare budgets increase dramatically each year, even during periods of economic recession. There are many reasons explaining this evolution, but publicly funded healthcare systems, as in the United Kingdom, appear to control their growth more effectively than the private systems as, for instance, in the United States. The bulk of the increase in healthcare expenditure happens to be attributed to elderly people who are becoming high consumers of healthcare facilities. There are, however, two important ways to tackle the problem: one is based on free market regulation systems, introducing diagnosis related groups and resource based relative value scales, as in the United States. The other starts from evaluating the needs and the demands of the population and, based on these results, tries to build up an appropriate healthcare system, as in The Netherlands. In the realm of urology where most of the workload is concentrated around older patients, one can foresee difficulties concerning budget allocation. New medical treatments are introduced, demanding new management skills of the urologist. This should involve new ways of evaluating the benefits of the interventions. Quality of life measurements seem to be crucial for the future where, for cost-effectiveness reasons, more care than cure could be the new function of the urologist.

Geographically-decentralized planning and management in health care: some informational issues and their implications for efficiency

Geographically decentralized planning and management is an emerging theme within the health sector in many OECD countries. Advocates of decentralization argue that providing greater authority to local decision-making bodies can improve both the technical and allocative efficiency with which health care systems operate. Using concepts drawn from organizational theory and the economics of organizations, we examine the potential of centralized and decentralized planning and management structures to be efficient in light of the informational problems that must be overcome to allocate resources efficiently. We focus in particular on the need to integrate information regarding: (1) the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative clinical interventions and of alternative ways organize the delivery of health care; (2) the needs, values, and preferences in the population; and (3) local circumstances that affect delivery of care across regions. Informational concerns suggest that decentralized structures have greater potential to be efficient. We then briefly discuss some principles for the design of decentralized structures to aid in realizing these potential efficiency gains.

Using Gini-style indices to evaluate the spatial patterns of health practitioners: theoretical considerations and an application based on Alberta data

The paper analyzes how Gini-style indices are optimally used in the evaluation of economic spatial models designed to predict where health care practitioners are likely to locate under competitive market conditions. At a conceptual level, the analysis establishes that Gini-style indices can be brought to bear on economic models, only if the ordering of geographic areas required to give Gini-coefficient values internal technical coherence also has meaning in terms of the conceptual predictions of the modelling. This, in turn, implies that Gini-indices are most likely to prove useful for fairly aggregated forms of economic analysis, involving relatively few and large geographic divisions. At an applied level, the analysis establishes that one particular geographic distribution of health practitioners is empirically dominant, and that is the distribution which involves the lowest practitioner:population ratio in rural areas, and the highest ratio in large urban areas, with the ratio for small urban areas in between. The empirical evidence also suggests that the spatial practitioner distributions are highly stable for most kinds of health personnel, making it problematic whether these distributions can be changed through normal types of public policy interventions.