Impact of Cash Transfer programs on Food Security and Nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis

Combining social protection interventions for better food security: Evidence from female-headed households in Amhara region, Ethiopia

Ethiopia introduced its flagship poverty-targeted social protection program, the Productive safety net program (PSNP), in 2005 and Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) in 2011. Although both programs operate in several districts with some overlaps, evidence is scarce on how these large-scale programs jointly affect the food security of vulnerable groups. This study examines the impacts of a combination of these programs on food security outcomes among female-headed households in a chronically food-insecure and drought-prone district. Cross-sectional data were collected from 365 female-headed households selected through multi-stage sampling technique and analyzed using Inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) strategy to assess the effect of the programs on food security. The results show that while 63.6% of sample households are enrolled in CBHI and 48.8% are beneficiaries of PSNP's conditional cash transfer (CCT) component, membership in both social protection programs was 38.9%. The IPWRA analysis finds that inclusion in the CCT combined with CBHI, on average, increased dietary diversity score by 0.918 (95% CI 0.779-1.057) and food consumption score by 0.576 (95% CI 0.464-0.688). It also reduced household food insecurity access scale by 8.658 (95% CI -9.775 - -7.541). In all assessments, a combination of CBHI and CCT always produced results of a larger magnitude than each of CBHI and CCT alone. The findings provide evidence of the potentials of integrating social protection programs to increase food security outcomes among the most vulnerable and marginalized groups in a developing country. In addition, the results have also useful implications to achieve sustainable development goals related to ending hunger and achieving food security among vulnerable groups.

A realist synthesis to develop an explanatory model of how policy instruments impact child and maternal health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Child and maternal health, a key marker of overall health system performance, is a policy priority area by the World Health Organization and the United Nations, including the Sustainable Development Goals. Previous realist work has linked child and maternal health outcomes to globalization, political tradition, and the welfare state. It is important to explore the role of other key policy-related factors. This paper presents a realist synthesis, categorising policy instruments according to the established NATO model, to develop an explanatory model of how policy instruments impact child and maternal health outcomes.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies assessing the relationships between policy instruments and child and maternal health outcomes. Data were analysed using a realist framework. The first stage of the realist analysis process was to generate micro-theoretical initial programme theories for use in the theory adjudication process. Proposed theories were then adjudicated iteratively to produce a set of final programme theories.

FINDINGS

From a total of 43,415 unique records, 632 records proceeded to full-text screening and 138 papers were included in the review. Evidence from 132 studies was available to address this research question. Studies were published from 1995 to 2021; 76% assessed a single country, and 81% analysed data at the ecological level. Eighty-eight initial candidate programme theories were generated. Following theory adjudication, five final programme theories were supported. According to the NATO model, these were related to treasure, organisation, authority-treasure, and treasure-organisation instrument types.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper presents a realist synthesis to develop an explanatory model of how policy instruments impact child and maternal health outcomes from a large, systematically identified international body of evidence. Five final programme theories were supported, showing how policy instruments play an important yet context-dependent role in influencing child and maternal health outcomes.

Impact of Targeted Subsidies Reform on Household Nutrition: Lessons Learned from Iran

Background

In 2010, Iran became the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies by increasing domestic energy and agricultural prices by up to 20 times. The current research aims to evaluate the profound impact of the countywide implementation of this targeted subsidy reform (TSR) on the consumption patterns of households in Iran, specifically in relation to the consumption of healthy food commodities.

Methods

This study employed a robust approach to examine the impact of the TSR on household food consumption, as a natural experiment, using pooled cross-section data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) spanning the years 1992 to 2019. The analysis was based on a comprehensive interpretation of survey data, which served as the primary source for analysis. The estimation procedure utilized an interrupted time series (ITS) model to capture the parameters associated with food consumption.

Results

The findings revealed a substantial increase in household expenditures on food immediately following the policy intervention, with an impressive rise of 823 thousand Rials (equivalent to approximately $6.36 based on the floating exchange rate in 2019). Furthermore, the results strongly indicate a significant annual upward trend in total monthly food expenditures per adult person, surpassing the pre-intervention trend by 441 thousand Rials (approximately $3.40) (P=0.044, CI=[12.86, 1016.81]). Moreover, the implementation of the policy led to an annual per capita increase in fruit consumption by 1.02 grams per day (P=0.225, CI=[-0.68; 2.72]).

Conclusion

This study shows that the initial positive effects of the TSR have gradually been eroded by inflation in subsequent years. This experience can serve as a lesson for all countries that TSR should be accompanied by other measures, such as poverty alleviation interventions, in order to achieve desired long-term results.

Unraveling the Channels of Food Security of the Households in Northern Kenya: Evidence from an Exclusive Dataset

Background

Most of the 10 million Kenyans lacking food security lived in the arid and semi-arid northern part of the country in a climatic condition of high temperatures and very little rainfall throughout the year. Frequent droughts had devastating effects on the livelihoods and food availability of the population.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to assess the food security status of the households in Northern Kenya and examine the factors contributing to their food security.

Methods

De-identified secondary data were used from the 2015 Feed the Future household survey conducted in 9 counties of Northern Kenya. The experience-based indicator of food security was derived from the 6-item Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM), which categorized sample households into 3 groups: food secure, having low food security, and having very low food security. An ordered probit model and machine learning algorithm, namely ordered random forest, were used to find the most important determinants of food security.

Results

Findings suggest that the daily per capita food expenditure, level of education of the household head, and durable asset ownership are the key predictors of food security. Households living in rural areas were likely to have low food security, but their probability of being food secure increased with at least primary education and livestock ownership, thus reflecting the importance of education and livestock production among rural communities in Northern Kenya. Access to improved water and participation in food security programs were found to be more important for food security among rural households than they were for urban households.

Conclusions

These results implied that long-term policies on improving access to education, livestock ownership, and improved water may shape the food security status of rural households in Northern Kenya.

Conflicts increased in Africa shortly after COVID-19 lockdowns, but welfare assistance reduced fatalities

Understanding how rises in local prices affect food-related conflicts is essential for crafting adequate social welfare responses, particularly in settings with an already high level of food vulnerability. We contribute to the literature by examining how rises in local food prices and the lockdowns implemented to contain the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected conflict. We analyze real-time conflict data for 24 African countries during 2015-2020, welfare responses to COVID-19, changes in local food prices, and georeferenced data on areas with cultivation, oil, mines, all associated with differentiated risk of conflict. We find that the probability of experiencing food-related conflicts, food looting, riots, and violence against civilians increased shortly after the first strict lockdowns of 2020. Increases in local prices led to increases in violence against civilians. However, countries that timely provided more welfare assistance saw a reduction in the probability of experiencing these conflicts and in the number of associated fatalities. Our results suggest that providing urgent aid and assistance to those who need it can help reduce violence and save lives.

Analyzing households' food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the role of public policies to mitigate it: evidence from Ceará, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of conditional cash transfer policies to mitigate the food insecurity (FI) among families living in poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ceará, Brazil.

METHODS

An analytical cross-sectional study was carried out through telephone contact during the period of May-July 2021, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ceará. Families in a situation of high social and economic vulnerability participated in this study (monthly per capita income of less than US$16.50). FI was assessed using the EBIA, a Brazilian validated questionnaire. The participation of families in government programs and public policies was also investigated. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of the several factors assessed with food insecurity.

RESULTS

The prevalence of any food insecurity in this sample was 89.1% (95% Confidence interval (95% CI: 86.2 - 92.1) and of severe food insecurity, 30.3% (95% CI: 26.0 - 34.6). The Mais Infância card program, adopted as a cash transfer supplement in the state of Ceará, was significantly associated with food insecurity (OR 4.2 (95% CI: 1.7 - 10.2), with a p-value of 0.002. In addition, families affected by job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic presented higher odds of FI.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, 89% of evaluated families presented food insecurity. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with FI. We highlight the need for policies and interventions to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity. Such policies can adopt appropriate criteria for defining the participants, as well as connect the participants to an appropriate set of broader social protection measures.

Evaluating performance of an untargeted urban food security scheme in India

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of the relative performances of Mother’s canteen across the regions of Tamil Nadu and find out the determinants of inefficiencies in the scheme.

Design/methodology/approach

An untargeted food security scheme called Amma (Mother's) canteen was started in Tamil Nadu, India, with an aim to provide the urban poor with hygienic and healthy food at an affordable price. Along with secondary data, interviews were conducted to understand the operational details of Mother's canteen. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to find the relative efficiency of the scheme operated by nine corporations.

Findings

Based on the daily expenditure, number of meals served and revenue, seven of nine corporations were found to be inefficient. Further, sensitivity analyses found that among six procurement variables, procurement (quantity and price) of black gram and cooking oil were determinants of inefficiency.

Research limitations/implications

As an untargeted scheme, the cost of delivering service-based evaluation was used for performance evaluation. Policymakers could use centralized procurement instead of open market procurement at the corporation level and standardized ingredients' usage (quantity) to further reduce the cost of the food security scheme.

Practical implications

The proposed DEA model may be used by policymakers to empirically evaluate the food security scheme's delivery effectiveness across various corporations in a region. Inefficient branches are identified here with empirical support for further performance improvement changes.

Originality/value

There are limited number of studies evaluating untargeted schemes. This paper presents the challenges of evaluating an untargeted scheme which allows self-selection of beneficiaries. The outcome of this study will help in identifying inefficient corporations, and further, improve the performance and cost of delivering untargeted food security scheme.

The impact of unconditional cash transfers on morbidity and health-seeking behaviour in Africa: evidence from Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe

Unconditional cash transfers have demonstrated widespread, positive impacts on consumption, food security, productive activities and schooling. However, the evidence to date on cash transfers and health-seeking behaviours and morbidity is not only mixed, but the evidence base is biased towards conditional programmes from Latin America and is more limited in the context of Africa. Given contextual and programmatic design differences between the regions, more evidence from Africa is warranted. We investigate the impact of unconditional cash transfers on morbidity and health-seeking behaviour using data from experimental and quasi-experimental study designs of five government cash transfer programs in Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Programme impacts were estimated using difference-in-differences models with longitudinal data. The results indicate positive programme impacts on health seeking when ill and on health expenditures. Our findings suggest that while unconditional cash transfers can improve health seeking when ill, morbidity impacts were mixed. More research is needed on longer-term impacts, mechanisms of impact and moderating factors. Additionally, taken together with existing evidence, our findings suggest that when summarizing the impacts of cash transfers on health, findings from conditional and unconditional programmes should be disaggregated.

Effect of a conditional cash transference program on food insecurity in Mexican households: 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effects of the social inclusion programme PROSPERA on food insecurity (FI) in Mexican households during 2012 and 2016.

DESIGN

Quasi-experimental study using cross-sectional data from 2012 to 2016 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey - Socioeconomic Conditions Module (in Spanish, ENIGH-MCS).

SETTING

Data were used from a 2012 sample of 56 888 Mexican households (representative of 31 206 819 households) and a 2016 sample of 70 263 Mexican households (representative of 33 445 353 households). Severity of FI was estimated with the Mexican Food Security Scale (in Spanish, EMSA). The statistical analysis estimated a differences in differences (DD) model weighted by propensity score to compare program beneficiary and non-beneficiary households in 2012 than in 2016. We estimated the effect on households with and without children (< 18 years of age). We also compared this model to a DD model without propensity score weighting.

PARTICIPANTS

Mexican households.

RESULTS

FI among all beneficiary households decreased 8·0pp as compared to non-beneficiary households over the study period. In beneficiary households with children, this decrease was 6·0pp and for beneficiary households without children, this decrease was 12·9pp (for all, P-value < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

The PROSPERA program had a positive effect on FI reduction at the household level through increasing food access, which usually improves nutritional outcomes in vulnerable Mexican populations.

Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; provided without obligation) for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities (e.g. orphanhood, old age, or HIV infection) are a social protection intervention addressing a key social determinant of health (income) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with conditional cash transfers (CCTs; provided only if recipients follow prescribed behaviours, e.g. use a health service or attend school) is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of UCTs on health services use and health outcomes in children and adults in LMICs. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects of UCTs on social determinants of health and healthcare expenditure, and to compare the effects of UCTs versus CCTs.

SEARCH METHODS

For this update, we searched 15 electronic academic databases, including CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EconLit, in September 2021. We also searched four electronic grey literature databases, websites of key organisations and reference lists of previous systematic reviews, key journals and included study records.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included both parallel-group and cluster-randomised controlled trials (C-RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort studies, controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs), and interrupted time series studies of UCT interventions in children (0 to 17 years) and adults (≥ 18 years) in LMICs. Comparison groups received either no UCT, a smaller UCT or a CCT. Our primary outcomes were any health services use or health outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened potentially relevant records for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We obtained missing data from study authors if feasible. For C-RCTs, we generally calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes from crude frequency measures in approximately correct analyses. Meta-analyses applied the inverse variance or Mantel-Haenszel method using a random-effects model. Where meta-analysis was impossible, we synthesised results using vote counting based on effect direction. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 34 studies (25 studies of 20 C-RCTs, six CBAs, and three cohort studies) involving 1,140,385 participants (45,538 children, 1,094,847 adults) and 50,095 households in Africa, the Americas and South-East Asia in our meta-analyses and narrative syntheses. These analysed 29 independent data sets. The 24 UCTs identified, including one basic universal income intervention, were pilot or established government programmes or research experiments. The cash value was equivalent to 1.3% to 81.9% of the annualised gross domestic product per capita. All studies compared a UCT with no UCT; three studies also compared a UCT with a CCT. Most studies carried an overall high risk of bias (i.e. often selection or performance bias, or both). Most studies were funded by national governments or international organisations, or both. Throughout the review, we use the words 'probably' to indicate moderate-certainty evidence, 'may/maybe' for low-certainty evidence, and 'uncertain' for very low-certainty evidence. Health services use We assumed greater use of any health services to be beneficial. UCTs may not have impacted the likelihood of having used any health service in the previous 1 to 12 months, when participants were followed up between 12 and 24 months into the intervention (risk ratio (RR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.09; I² = 2%; 5 C-RCTs, 4972 participants; low-certainty evidence). Health outcomes At one to two years, UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, very large reduction in the likelihood of having had any illness in the previous two weeks to three months (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.92; I² = 53%; 6 C-RCTs, 9367 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased the likelihood of having been food secure over the previous month, at 13 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.45; I² = 85%; 5 C-RCTs, 2687 participants; low-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased participants' level of dietary diversity over the previous week, when assessed with the Household Dietary Diversity Score and followed up 24 months into the intervention (mean difference (MD) 0.59 food categories, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.01; I² = 79%; 4 C-RCTs, 9347 participants; low-certainty evidence). Despite several studies providing relevant evidence, the effects of UCTs on the likelihood of being moderately stunted and on the level of depression remain uncertain. We found no study on the effect of UCTs on mortality risk. Social determinants of health UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the likelihood of currently attending school, when assessed at 12 to 24 months into the intervention (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09; I² = 0%; 8 C-RCTs, 7136 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have reduced the likelihood of households being extremely poor, at 12 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97; I² = 63%; 6 C-RCTs, 3805 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence was uncertain for whether UCTs impacted livestock ownership, participation in labour, and parenting quality. Healthcare expenditure Evidence from eight cluster-RCTs on healthcare expenditure was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta-analysis, but it suggested that UCTs may have increased the amount of money spent on health care at 7 to 36 months into the intervention (low-certainty evidence). Equity, harms and comparison with CCTs The effects of UCTs on health equity (or unfair and remedial health inequalities) were very uncertain. We did not identify any harms from UCTs. Three cluster-RCTs compared UCTs versus CCTs with regard to the likelihood of having used any health services or had any illness, or the level of dietary diversity, but evidence was limited to one study per outcome and was very uncertain for all three.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This body of evidence suggests that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may not impact a summary measure of health service use in children and adults in LMICs. However, UCTs probably or may improve some health outcomes (i.e. the likelihood of having had any illness, the likelihood of having been food secure, and the level of dietary diversity), two social determinants of health (i.e. the likelihoods of attending school and being extremely poor), and healthcare expenditure. The evidence on the relative effectiveness of UCTs and CCTs remains very uncertain.

Decade of research into the acceptability of interventions aimed at improving adolescent and youth health and social outcomes in Africa: a systematic review and evidence map

OBJECTIVE

Interventions aimed at improving adolescent health and social outcomes are more likely to be successful if the young people they target find them acceptable. However, no standard definitions or indicators exist to assess acceptability. Acceptability research with adolescents in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is still limited and no known reviews systhesise the evidence from Africa. This paper maps and qualitatively synthesises the scope, characteristics and findings of these studies, including definitions of acceptability, methods used, the type and objectives of interventions assessed, and overall findings on adolescent acceptability.

DESIGN

We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies assessing intervention acceptability with young adults (aged 10-24) in Africa, published between January 2010 and June 2020.

DATA SOURCES

Web of Science, Medline, PsycINFO, SociIndex, CINAHL, Africa-wide, Academic Search Complete and PubMed were searched through July 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Papers were selected based on the following inclusion criteria: if they (1) reported primary research assessing acceptability (based on the authors' definition of the study or findings) of one or more intervention(s) with adolescents and young adults 10-24; (2) assessed acceptability of intervention(s) aimed at positively influencing one or more development outcome(s), as defined by sustainable development goal (SDG) indicators; (3) reported on research conducted in Africa; (4) were in the English Language; (5) were peer-reviewed and and (6) were published between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2020.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Abstracts were reviewed independently by the two first authors to determine relevance. Full text of potentially eligible studies were retrieved and independently examined by the same two authors; areas of disagreement or lack of clarity were resolved through discussion by the two authors and-where necessary-the assessment of a third author.

RESULTS

55 studies were considered eligible for inclusion in the review. Most studies were conducted in Southern Africa, of which 32 jointly in South Africa and Uganda. The majority of interventions assessed for acceptability could be classified as HIV or HPV vaccine interventions (10), E-health (10), HIV testing interventions (8), support group interventions (7) and contraceptive interventions (6). The objectives of most interventions were linked to SDG3, specifically to HIV and sexual and reproductive health. Acceptability was overall high among these published studies. 22 studies provided reasons for acceptability or lack thereof, some specific to particular types of interventions and others common across intervention types.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review exposes considerable scope for future acceptability research and review work. This should include extending acceptability research beyond the health (and particularly HIV) sector and to regions in Africa where this type of research is still scarce; including adolescents earlier, and potentially throughout the intervention process; further conceptualising the construct of acceptability among adolescents and beyond; and examining the relationship between acceptability and uptake.

Accelerating Sustainable Development Goals for South African adolescents from high HIV prevalence areas: a longitudinal path analysis

BACKGROUND

Adolescents experience a multitude of vulnerabilities which need to be addressed in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescents experience high burden of HIV, violence exposure, poverty, and poor mental and physical health. This study aimed to identify interventions and circumstances associated with three or more targets ("accelerators") within multiple SDGs relating to HIV-affected adolescents and examine cumulative effects on outcomes.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal data from 3401 adolescents from randomly selected census enumeration areas in two provinces with > 30% HIV prevalence carried out in 2010/11 and 2011/12 were used to examine six hypothesized accelerators (positive parenting, parental monitoring, free schooling, teacher support, food sufficiency and HIV-negative/asymptomatic caregiver) targeting twelve outcomes across four SDGs, using a multivariate (multiple outcome) path model with correlated outcomes controlling for outcome at baseline and socio-demographics. The study corrected for multiple-hypothesis testing and tested measurement invariance across sex. Percentage predicted probabilities of occurrence of the outcome in the presence of the significant accelerators were also calculated.

RESULTS

Sample mean age was 13.7 years at baseline, 56.6% were female. Positive parenting, parental monitoring, food sufficiency and AIDS-free caregiver were variously associated with reductions on ten outcomes. The model was gender invariant. AIDS-free caregiver was associated with the largest reductions. Combinations of accelerators resulted in a percentage reduction of risk of up to 40%.

CONCLUSION

Positive parenting, parental monitoring, food sufficiency and AIDS-free caregivers by themselves and in combination improve adolescent outcomes across ten SDG targets. These could translate to the corresponding real-world interventions parenting programmes, cash transfers and universal access to antiretroviral treatment, which when provided together, may help governments in sub-Saharan Africa more economically to reach their SDG targets.

Effectiveness of cash-plus programmes on early childhood outcomes compared to cash transfers alone: A systematic review and meta-analysis in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

To strengthen the impact of cash transfers, these interventions have begun to be packaged as cash-plus programmes, combining cash with additional transfers, interventions, or services. The intervention's complementary ("plus") components aim to improve cash transfer effectiveness by targeting mediating outcomes or the availability of supplies or services. This study examined whether cash-plus interventions for infants and children <5 are more effective than cash alone in improving health and well-being.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Forty-two databases, donor agencies, grey literature sources, and trial registries were systematically searched, yielding 5,097 unique articles (as of 06 April 2021). Randomised and quasi-experimental studies were eligible for inclusion if the intervention package aimed to improve outcomes for children <5 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and combined a cash transfer with an intervention targeted to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (No Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG4 (Education), or SDG16 (Violence Prevention), had at least one group receiving cash-only, examined outcomes related to child-focused SDGs, and was published in English. Risk of bias was appraised using Cochrane Risk of Bias and ROBINS-I Tools. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for a cash-plus intervention category when there were at least 3 trials with the same outcome. The review was preregistered with PROSPERO (CRD42018108017). Seventeen studies were included in the review and 11 meta-analysed. Most interventions operated during the first 1,000 days of the child's life and were conducted in communities facing high rates of poverty and often, food insecurity. Evidence was found for 10 LMICs, where most researchers used randomised, longitudinal study designs (n = 14). Five intervention categories were identified, combining cash with nutrition behaviour change communication (BCC, n = 7), food transfers (n = 3), primary healthcare (n = 2), psychosocial stimulation (n = 7), and child protection (n = 4) interventions. Comparing cash-plus to cash alone, meta-analysis results suggest Cash + Food Transfers are more effective in improving height-for-age (d = 0.08 SD (0.03, 0.14), p = 0.02) with significantly reduced odds of stunting (OR = 0.82 (0.74, 0.92), p = 0.01), but had no added impact in improving weight-for-height (d = -0.13 (-0.42, 0.16), p = 0.24) or weight-for-age z-scores (d = -0.06 (-0.28, 0.15), p = 0.43). There was no added impact above cash alone from Cash + Nutrition BCC on anthropometrics; Cash + Psychosocial Stimulation on cognitive development; or Cash + Child Protection on parental use of violent discipline or exclusive positive parenting. Narrative synthesis evidence suggests that compared to cash alone, Cash + Primary Healthcare may have greater impacts in reducing mortality and Cash + Food Transfers in preventing acute malnutrition in crisis contexts. The main limitations of this review are the few numbers of studies that compared cash-plus interventions against cash alone and the potentially high heterogeneity between study findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that few cash-plus combinations were more effective than cash transfers alone. Cash combined with food transfers and primary healthcare show the greatest signs of added effectiveness. More research is needed on when and how cash-plus combinations are more effective than cash alone, and work in this field must ensure that these interventions improve outcomes among the most vulnerable children.

Mothers' Perspectives of Complementary Feeding Practices in an Urban Informal Settlement in Kisumu County, Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

In informal settlements, the benefits of urban dwelling are diminished by conditions of poverty that exacerbate child undernutrition. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) project has identified malnutrition as the leading underlying cause of death in children under 5 in the Manyatta urban informal settlement in Kisumu County, Kenya.

OBJECTIVE

This qualitative study, nested within the CHAMPS project, aimed to understand community perspectives on complementary feeding practices in this settlement.

METHODS

In-depth interviews were conducted with 20 mothers who lived in the urban informal settlement and had a child 6-23 months old. Two focus group discussions were conducted, 1 with mothers and 1 with community health workers (CHWs), to further explore themes related to complementary feeding.

RESULTS

Mothers were knowledgeable about globally recommended feeding practices, but such practices were often not implemented due to 1) the community/household water and sanitation environment, 2) the community/household food environment, 3) a lack of income and employment opportunities for women, and 4) sociocultural factors. Together, these create an environment that is not conducive to optimal child feeding practices.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve complementary feeding practices and child nutritional outcomes in Kenya's informal urban settings, both community- and individual-level factors should be addressed. Possible interventions include investment in water infrastructure and social protection programs, such as cash transfers.

Elderly's food security and its associated socioeconomic determinants in Tehran: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

The mechanism by which a suppressed immune system of a cancer patient makes them susceptible to COVID-19 is still unclear. Any delay or discontinuation of cancer care due to the pandemic is expected to have a detrimental impact on the outcome of cancer. A few studies have addressed the incidence of COVID-19 among cancer patients, but the small sample size of such studies makes it difficult to draw inference to the general population.

METHODS

For our review, 'Pubmed' database and Google search engines were used for searching the relevant articles. The criterion used for review includes their relevance to the defined review question, which is the pathophysiological mechanism of COVID-19 among cancer patients and the relevant therapeutic interventions therewith. This review includes 20 studies and other relevant literature which address the determinants of COVID-19 among Cancer patients.

RESULTS

Delay in cancer diagnosis will increase the stage progression of cancer patients and increased mortality in the future. A short delay in administering cancer related treatment to aid the odds of patient surviving the acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, should be at the discretion of the treating Physician. Oncologists dilemma in the current situation includes titrating the density of drug doses and intensity of treatment regimen, for the optimal management of metastatic and adjuvant cancer patients. Patients are thus subjected to suboptimal treatment and undetected disease recurrence, To circumvent the immunosuppressive effects of chemotherapy, Providers need to consider staggered regimen or alternate therapies such as biological/immunotherapy, targeted therapy, anti-angiogenic drugs, hormone therapy and/or antibody-based therapeutics.

CONCLUSION

This review provides insights on the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2, which could enable Physicians in formulating therapeutic strategies for the management of severe patients, more so in Oncology settings, thus reducing the mortality. The key is to balance the continuation of urgent cancer care, but rationing the elective treatment according to the circumstances.

Exploring the role of social capital in managing food insecurity among older women in the United States

Food insecurity, which affects 37 million individuals in the United States (U.S.) and disproportionately burdens women, minorities and older adults, is a well-established determinant of poor health. Previous studies suggest social capital, defined as the material and social benefits arising from relationships among individuals within and between groups, may be protective against food insecurity. Drawing on this evidence, calls have been made for interventions and policies to promote social capital to address food insecurity. However, limited research has explored in-depth how social capital shapes the lived experience of food insecurity in the U.S. We explored how older women from three settings in the U.S. used forms of social capital to navigate their food environments. Between November 2017-July 2018, we conducted 38 semi-structured interviews with food-insecure women aged 50 years or older enrolled in the Northern California, Georgia, and North Carolina sites of the Women's Interagency HIV study, an ongoing cohort study of women living with and at risk of HIV. Interviews were analyzed using an inductive-deductive approach. Women from the three sites explained how they drew upon different forms of capital to access food. Women in Georgia and North Carolina depended on support from members within their social group (bonding social capital) to address food insecurity but described limited opportunities to build relationships with members from other social groups (bridging social capital) or representatives of institutions (linking social capital). In contrast, women from Northern California frequently used bridging and linking social capital to access food but described limited bonding social capital. Findings show how the role of social capital in protecting against food insecurity is diverse, complex, and structurally determined. Intervention implications are discussed.

A conceptual model for understanding the rapid COVID-19-related increase in food insecurity and its impact on health and healthcare

Food insecurity, a well-established determinant of chronic disease morbidity and mortality, is rapidly increasing due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We present a conceptual model to understand the multiple mechanisms through which the economic and public health crises sparked by COVID-19 might increase food insecurity and contribute to poor health outcomes in the short- and long-term. We hypothesize that, in the short-term, increased food insecurity, household economic disruption, household stress, and interruptions in healthcare will contribute to acute chronic disease complications. However, the impact of the pandemic on food security will linger after social-distancing policies are lifted and the health system stabilizes, resulting in increased risk for chronic disease development, morbidity, and mortality among food-insecure households in the long-term. Research is needed to examine the impact of the pandemic-related increase in food insecurity on short- and long-term chronic health outcomes, and to delineate the underlying causal mechanisms. Such research is critical to inform the development of effective programs and policies to address food insecurity and its downstream health impacts during COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Violence prevention accelerators for children and adolescents in South Africa: A path analysis using two pooled cohorts

BACKGROUND

The INSPIRE framework was developed by 10 global agencies as the first global package for preventing and responding to violence against children. The framework includes seven complementary strategies. Delivering all seven strategies is a challenge in resource-limited contexts. Consequently, governments are requesting additional evidence to inform which 'accelerator' provisions can simultaneously reduce multiple types of violence against children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We pooled data from two prospective South African adolescent cohorts including Young Carers (2010-2012) and Mzantsi Wakho (2014-2017). The combined sample size was 5,034 adolescents. Each cohort measured six self-reported violence outcomes (sexual abuse, transactional sexual exploitation, physical abuse, emotional abuse, community violence victimisation, and youth lawbreaking) and seven self-reported INSPIRE-aligned protective factors (positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, food security at home, basic economic security at home, free schooling, free school meals, and abuse response services). Associations between hypothesised protective factors and violence outcomes were estimated jointly in a sex-stratified multivariate path model, controlling for baseline outcomes and socio-demographics and correcting for multiple-hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. We calculated adjusted probability estimates conditional on the presence of no, one, or all protective factors significantly associated with reduced odds of at least three forms of violence in the path model. Adjusted risk differences (ARDs) and adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated. The sample mean age was 13.54 years, and 56.62% were female. There was 4% loss to follow-up. Positive parenting, parental monitoring and supervision, and food security at home were each associated with lower odds of three or more violence outcomes (p < 0.05). For girls, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was estimated to be lower if all three of these factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 5.38% and 1.64% (ARD: -3.74% points, 95% CI -5.31 to -2.16, p < 0.001); transactional sexual exploitation, 10.07% and 4.84% (ARD: -5.23% points, 95% CI -7.26 to -3.20, p < 0.001); physical abuse, 38.58% and 23.85% (ARD: -14.72% points, 95% CI -19.11 to -10.33, p < 0.001); emotional abuse, 25.39% and 12.98% (ARD: -12.41% points, 95% CI -16.00 to -8.83, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation, 36.25% and 28.37% (ARD: -7.87% points, 95% CI -11.98 to -3.76, p < 0.001); and youth lawbreaking, 18.90% and 11.61% (ARD: -7.30% points, 95% CI -10.50 to -4.09, p < 0.001). For boys, the adjusted probability of violence outcomes was also estimated to be lower if all three factors were present, as compared to none of them: sexual abuse, 2.39% to 1.80% (ARD: -0.59% points, 95% CI -2.24 to 1.05, p = 0.482); transactional sexual exploitation, 6.97% to 4.55% (ARD: -2.42% points, 95% CI -4.77 to -0.08, p = 0.043); physical abuse from 37.19% to 25.44% (ARD: -11.74% points, 95% CI -16.91 to -6.58, p < 0.001); emotional abuse from 23.72% to 10.72% (ARD: -13.00% points, 95% CI -17.04 to -8.95, p < 0.001); community violence victimisation from 41.28% to 35.41% (ARD: -5.87% points, 95% CI -10.98 to -0.75, p = 0.025); and youth lawbreaking from 22.44% to 14.98% (ARD -7.46% points, 95% CI -11.57 to -3.35, p < 0.001). Key limitations were risk of residual confounding and not having information on protective factors related to all seven INSPIRE strategies.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort study, we found that positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are associated with reduced risk of multiple forms of violence against children. The presence of all three of these factors may be linked to greater risk reduction as compared to the presence of one or none of these factors. Policies promoting action on positive and supervisory caregiving and food security at home are likely to support further efficiencies in the delivery of INSPIRE.

Effects of family income and conditional cash transfers on household food insecurity: evidence from a longitudinal study in Northeast Brazil

Objective:

Food insecurity (FI) is a challenge to policy makers worldwide, who need to understand which polices and programmes are effective at overcoming FI. The present study aimed to examine the impact of family income and conditional cash transfers on changes in household FI status in a highly vulnerable municipality in Northeast Brazil.

Design:

A population-based longitudinal cohort study among families in a municipality in the semi-arid area in Northeast Brazil (2011 and 2014). FI was estimated with the Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale (EBIA). The effects of family income and cash transfer on changes in FI were estimated using logistic regression models and the population-attributable risk fraction.

Setting:

Households in Cuité, Paraíba, Brazil.

Participants:

Household respondents interviewed in 2011 (n 358) and 2014 (n 326).

Results:

There was a reduction in FI prevalence of 17·5 % across time; 24·5 % of families who were food insecure in 2011 became food secure in 2014. After adjustment, families that did not experience an increase in their total household income or a reduction in the cash transfer amount were at increased risk of persistent FI across time. If the cash transfer programme had not been in place, about 10 % of the families that switched from food insecure to food secure across time would have remained in FI instead.

Conclusions:

The decrease of FI occurred in an area of extreme climatic and social vulnerability. These changes were more related to the cash transfer than the increase in family income over time.

Advancing Nutrition in the International Food Assistance Agenda: Progress and Future Directions Identified at the 2018 Food Assistance for Nutrition Evidence Summit

BACKGROUND

Global food insecurity persists despite continued international attention, necessitating evidence-based food assistance interventions that adequately address nutritional concerns. In June 2018, the US Agency for International Development's Office of Food for Peace through the Food Aid Quality Review (FAQR) project sponsored a "Food Assistance for Nutrition Evidence Summit" to share evidence relevant to policy and programmatic decision-making and to identify critical evidence gaps.

OBJECTIVE

This article presents 4 priority areas to advance nutrition in the international food assistance agenda generated through presentations and discussions with the food assistance community at the Evidence Summit.

METHODS

Priority areas were identified after the Evidence Summit using a combination of FAQR team discussions, review of presentations and official notes, and supporting literature.

RESULTS

Key priority areas to advance nutrition in the international food assistance agenda are as follows: (1) increase research funding for food assistance in all contexts, paying particular attention to emergency settings; (2) research and adopt innovative ingredients, technology, and delivery strategies in food assistance products and programs that encourage long-term well-being; (3) redefine and expand indicators of nutritional status to capture contextual information about the outcomes of food assistance interventions; and (4) augment communication and collaboration across the food assistance ecosystem.

CONCLUSIONS

These priorities are critical in a time of increased humanitarian need and will be key to fostering long-term resilience among vulnerable groups.

The impact of unconditional child cash grant on child malnutrition and its immediate and underlying causes in five districts of the Karnali Zone, Nepal - A trend analysis

BACKGROUND

The impact of unconditional cash transfers on child malnutrition and its determinants remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was evaluate the impact of an unconditional child cash grant on children's nutritional status and its immediate (infant and young child feeding, dietary diversity, food consumption, and child infection and care) and underlying (household food security; Water, Hygiene and Sanitation (WASH) determinants among children younger than five years in the Karnali Zone, Nepal.

METHODS

The five districts of the Karnali Zone received standard social welfare services in the form of targeted resource transfers for eligible families, plus an unconditional child cash payment, augmented by a capacity building and behavioural change education. Repeated cross-sectional surveys, with measures taken at baseline (2009, N=3750), midline (2013, N=3750) and endline (2015, N=3647), were carried out using a two-stage cluster sampling method. Multi-level Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) with normal, binomial, Poisson, or multinomial link were performed to detect the unadjusted and adjusted trends.

RESULTS

There was a linear growth among children, with a corresponding increase of 0.41 height-for-age Z-scores (p < 0.001), 0.50 weight-for-age Z-scores (p<0.001), and 0.34 weight-for-height Z-scores (p<0.001) between the study period, equating to a decline in child undernutrition of 9.4, 16.5, and 5.1 percentage points (p<0.001) for stunting, underweight, and wasting respectively. Improvements were also observed in WASH outcomes, care and health seeking behaviours, and food availability.

CONCLUSION

Unconditional child cash grant embedded within a government sponsored cash transfer program for families and complemented by capacity building and behavioural change strategies improves child nutritional status and its determinants.

Sunflower Value Chain Enhancements for the Rural Economy in Tanzania: A Village Computable General Equilibrium-CGE Approach

Poverty is prevalent and widespread in rural Tanzania, where agriculture is the main activity. The government is making significant public investments intended to speed the growth of agriculture as a means to accelerate inclusive economic growth. In line with public investments, the government is promoting public–private partnerships by encouraging the use of improved agricultural innovations and linking farmers to markets, seeking to increase their yields and income. However, there is a paucity of empirical evidence using multipliers analysis about the extent of how gains in agricultural productivity and market linkages for farmers in rural areas help improve the economy at the household level. This paper assesses the welfare effects of the sunflower value chain for a rural economy in Tanzania using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the selected village, which has a high potential for sunflower. Findings highlight the use of the CGE model, first, for analyzing and understanding the economic sectors at a village level. Second, the effects of various upgrading strategies promoted for improving rural farming communities by the government and non-governmental development partners at the micro-scale are analyzed and potential agricultural commodity value chains identified. The multiplier analysis provided insights regarding the potential of sunflower crops for the village economy.

Effects of multiannual, seasonal unconditional cash transfers on food security and dietary diversity in rural Burkina Faso: the Moderate Acute Malnutrition Out (MAM'Out) cluster-randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of multiannual, seasonal unconditional cash transfers (UCT) provided within the Moderate Acute Malnutrition Out (MAM'Out) research project on households' food security and children's and caregivers' dietary diversity.

DESIGN

A two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial with sixteen villages in the intervention group and sixteen others in the control group. A monthly allowance of 10 000 XOF was transferred to caregivers of eligible children via a personal mobile phone account from July to November 2013 and 2014.

SETTING

Tapoa province in the eastern region of Burkina Faso.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on household food access (monthly adequate household food provisioning (MAHFP); household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS)) and maternal and child dietary diversity were analysed for 1143 households, 1219 caregivers of reproductive age (15-49 years) and 1247 under-5 children from both intervention and control groups.

RESULTS

The mean women dietary diversity score in intervention caregivers and the mean dietary diversity score (DDS) in intervention children with inadequate minimum DDS at baseline were respectively 7 % (95 % CI 2, 11 %; P = 0·002) and 17 % (95 % CI 11, 23 %; P <0·001) higher compared with the control group. However, no difference was found in the intervention effect on household food security measured with HFIAS (relative risk = 1·03; 95 % CI 0·92, 1·15; P = 0·565) and MAHFP (relative risk = 0·98; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·01; P = 0·426).

CONCLUSIONS

Multiannual, seasonalUCT increased dietary diversity in children and their caregivers. They can be recommended in actions aiming to improve maternal and child diet diversity.

Cash transfers to enhance TB control: lessons from the HIV response

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization prioritises a more holistic global response to end the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. Based on experiences in the HIV response, social protection, and in particular cash transfers, show promise for contributing to this. Currently, individual-level evidence for the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addressing the structural social determinants of disease is lacking. To identify priority actions for the TB research agenda, we appraised efforts by the HIV response to establish the role of cash transfers in preventing HIV infection.

MAIN BODY

The HIV response has evaluated the effects of cash transfers on risky sexual behaviours and HIV incidence. Work has also evaluated the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. The HIV response has focused research on populations with disproportionate HIV risk, and used a mix of explanatory evaluations, which use ideal conditions, and pragmatic evaluations, which use operational conditions, to generate evidence that is both causally valid and applicable to the real world. It has always collaborated with multiple stakeholders in funding and evaluating projects. Learning from the HIV response, priority actions for the TB response should be to investigate the effect of cash transfers on intermediary social determinants of active TB disease, and TB incidence, as well as the added effects of supplementing cash transfers with psychosocial support. Work should be focused on key groups in high burden settings, and look to build a combination of explanatory and pragmatic evidence to inform policy decisions in this field. To achieve this, there is an urgent need to facilitate collaborations between groups interested in evaluating the impact of cash transfers on TB risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV response highlights several priority actions necessary for the TB response to establish the potential of cash transfers to prevent TB by addresing the structural social determinants of disease.

Myth-Busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa

This paper summarizes evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa under the Transfer Project. Specifically, it investigates if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation); and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. The paper presents evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions-insofar as they are utilized in policy debates-undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programs can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. It concludes by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.

The impact of cash transfers on social determinants of health and health inequalities in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Cash transfers (CTs) are now high on the agenda of most governments in low- and middle-income countries. Within the field of health promotion, CTs constitute a healthy public policy initiative as they have the potential to address the social determinants of health (SDoH) and health inequalities. A systematic review was conducted to synthesise the evidence on CTs' impacts on SDoH and health inequalities in sub-Saharan Africa, and to identify the barriers and facilitators of effective CTs. Twenty-one electronic databases and the websites of 14 key organizations were searched in addition to grey literature and hand searching of selected journals for quantitative and qualitative studies on CTs' impacts on SDoH and health outcomes. Out of 182 full texts screened for eligibility, 79 reports that reported findings from 53 studies were included in the final review. The studies were undertaken within 24 CTs comprising 11 unconditional CTs (UCTs), 8 conditional CTs (CCTs) and 5 combined UCTs and CCTs. The review found that CTs can be effective in tackling structural determinants of health such as financial poverty, education, household resilience, child labour, social capital and social cohesion, civic participation, and birth registration. The review further found that CTs modify intermediate determinants such as nutrition, dietary diversity, child deprivation, sexual risk behaviours, teen pregnancy and early marriage. In conjunction with their influence on SDoH, there is moderate evidence from the review that CTs impact on health and quality of life outcomes. The review also found many factors relating to intervention design features, macro-economic stability, household dynamics and community acceptance of programs that could influence the effectiveness of CTs. The external validity of the review findings is strong as the findings are largely consistent with those from Latin America. The findings thus provide useful insights to policy makers and managers and can be used to optimise CTs to reduce health inequalities.

Ladies first: Female and male adult height in Switzerland, 1770-1930

When investigating the well-being of a society, the living conditions of females are of special importance, not only due to the immediate impact for those directly involved, but also because of the potential intergenerational effects. Studying the dimorphism in the mean height helps to depict variation in the basic biological sex difference due to gender-related factors that potentially determine net nutrition. To expand knowledge of diachronic development in Swiss well-being conditions we investigate changes in the height of adult females born 1770-1930, and compare the series with data on contemporary males from the same sources: We employ a sample of N = 21'028 women and N = 21'329 men from passport-, convict-, maternity hospital-, and voluntary World War II army auxiliary records. The secular height trend is found both in males, from the 1870s/1880s, and in females starting with the 1840s/1850s birth cohorts. During the decades under study, mean height increased from 157 cm to 164 cm in female and 167 cm to 172 cm in male passport applicants, 154 cm to 159 cm in female and 167 cm to 169 cm in male convicts, 159 cm to 163 cm in female auxiliaries, and 155 cm to 159 cm in females giving birth in the maternity hospital of Basel. Because females seem to have started the secular trend in height earlier than their male contemporaries, the height dimorphism decreased during the second half of the 19th century. Differences between socio-economic status (SES) and data sources are found in both females and males: Women with low SES were significantly shorter than those of the other SES groups in all sources (on average 1.40 cm, p-values between 0.00 and 0.03). In men we found individuals of upper SES to be significantly taller (on average 1.96 cm, p-value = 0.00-0.10). Concerning differences between the sources, overall, passport applicants were the tallest for men as well as women; in females the individuals measured at the maternity hospital and in prison were the shortest. The variances across the datasets highlight the importance of considering different sources to depict average living conditions. Noteworthy is the finding that the diverse sources under study all show the same trajectory of increasing mean height over the course of the 19th century. In the long run, the improving net nutritional status of Swiss females may have been one of the contributors behind the general rise in well-being of the country's population from the later 19th century onwards.

Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use: Implications for Environmental Health and Food Security

The eighteenth-century Malthusian prediction of population growth outstripping food production has not yet come to bear. Unprecedented agricultural land expansions since 1700, and technological innovations that began in the 1930s, have enabled more calorie production per capita than was ever available before in history. This remarkable success, however, has come at a great cost. Agriculture is a major cause of global environmental degradation. Malnutrition persists among large sections of the population, and a new epidemic of obesity is on the rise. We review both the successes and failures of the global food system, addressing ongoing debates on pathways to environmental health and food security. To deal with these challenges, a new coordinated research program blending modern breeding with agro-ecological methods is needed. We call on plant biologists to lead this effort and help steer humanity toward a safe operating space for agriculture.

Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; provided without obligation) for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities (e.g. orphanhood, old age or HIV infection) are a type of social protection intervention that addresses a key social determinant of health (income) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with conditional cash transfers (CCTs; provided so long as the recipient engages in prescribed behaviours such as using a health service or attending school) is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of UCTs for improving health services use and health outcomes in vulnerable children and adults in LMICs. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects of UCTs on social determinants of health and healthcare expenditure and to compare to effects of UCTs versus CCTs.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched 17 electronic academic databases, including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (the Cochrane Library 2017, Issue 5), MEDLINE and Embase, in May 2017. We also searched six electronic grey literature databases and websites of key organisations, handsearched key journals and included records, and sought expert advice.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included both parallel group and cluster-randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort and controlled before-and-after (CBAs) studies, and interrupted time series studies of UCT interventions in children (0 to 17 years) and adults (18 years or older) in LMICs. Comparison groups received either no UCT or a smaller UCT. Our primary outcomes were any health services use or health outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently screened potentially relevant records for inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We tried to obtain missing data from study authors if feasible. For cluster-RCTs, we generally calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes from crude frequency measures in approximately correct analyses. Meta-analyses applied the inverse variance or Mantel-Haenszel method with random effects. We assessed the quality of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 21 studies (16 cluster-RCTs, 4 CBAs and 1 cohort study) involving 1,092,877 participants (36,068 children and 1,056,809 adults) and 31,865 households in Africa, the Americas and South-East Asia in our meta-analyses and narrative synthesis. The 17 types of UCTs we identified, including one basic universal income intervention, were pilot or established government programmes or research experiments. The cash value was equivalent to 1.3% to 53.9% of the annualised gross domestic product per capita. All studies compared a UCT with no UCT, and three studies also compared a UCT with a CCT. Most studies carried an overall high risk of bias (i.e. often selection and/or performance bias). Most studies were funded by national governments and/or international organisations.Throughout the review, we use the words 'probably' to indicate moderate-quality evidence, 'may/maybe' for low-quality evidence, and 'uncertain' for very low-quality evidence. UCTs may not have impacted the likelihood of having used any health service in the previous 1 to 12 months, when participants were followed up between 12 and 24 months into the intervention (risk ratio (RR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.09, P = 0.07, 5 cluster-RCTs, N = 4972, I² = 2%, low-quality evidence). At one to two years, UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, very large reduction in the likelihood of having had any illness in the previous two weeks to three months (odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.93, 5 cluster-RCTs, N = 8446, I² = 57%, moderate-quality evidence). Evidence from five cluster-RCTs on food security was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta-analysis, but it suggested that at 13 to 24 months' follow-up, UCTs could increase the likelihood of having been food secure over the previous month (low-quality evidence). UCTs may have increased participants' level of dietary diversity over the previous week, when assessed with the Household Dietary Diversity Score and followed up 24 months into the intervention (mean difference (MD) 0.59 food categories, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.01, 4 cluster-RCTs, N = 9347, I² = 79%, low-quality evidence). Despite several studies providing relevant evidence, the effects of UCTs on the likelihood of being moderately stunted and on the level of depression remain uncertain. No evidence was available on the effect of a UCT on the likelihood of having died. UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the likelihood of currently attending school, when assessed at 12 to 24 months into the intervention (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.09, 6 cluster-RCTs, N = 4800, I² = 0%, moderate-quality evidence). The evidence was uncertain for whether UCTs impacted livestock ownership, extreme poverty, participation in child labour, adult employment or parenting quality. Evidence from six cluster-RCTs on healthcare expenditure was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta-analysis, but it suggested that UCTs may have increased the amount of money spent on health care at 7 to 24 months into the intervention (low-quality evidence). The effects of UCTs on health equity (or unfair and remedial health inequalities) were very uncertain. We did not identify any harms from UCTs. Three cluster-RCTs compared UCTs versus CCTs with regard to the likelihood of having used any health services, the likelihood of having had any illness or the level of dietary diversity, but evidence was limited to one study per outcome and was very uncertain for all three.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This body of evidence suggests that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may not impact a summary measure of health service use in children and adults in LMICs. However, UCTs probably or may improve some health outcomes (i.e. the likelihood of having had any illness, the likelihood of having been food secure, and the level of dietary diversity), one social determinant of health (i.e. the likelihood of attending school), and healthcare expenditure. The evidence on the relative effectiveness of UCTs and CCTs remains very uncertain.

One plus one can be greater than two: Evaluating synergies of development programmes in Malawi

This paper investigates the interplay between the Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) and the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) in Malawi. We take advantage of data collected from a seventeen-month evaluation of a sample of households eligible to receive SCTP, which also provided information about inclusion into FISP. We estimate two types of synergies: i) the complementarity between SCTP and FISP, i.e. whether the impact of both interventions run together is larger than the sum of the impacts of these interventions when run separately, and ii) the incremental impact of receiving FISP when a household already receives SCTP, as well as the incremental impact of receiving SCTP when a household already receives FISP. The analysis shows that there are synergies between the two policy interventions, mainly in terms of incremental impact of each programme over the other, in increasing expenditure, agricultural production and livestock.