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Zhang H, Luo M, Zhan W, Zhao Y, Yang Y, Ge E, Ning G, Cong J. HiMIC-Monthly: A 1 km high-resolution atmospheric moisture index collection over China, 2003-2020. Sci Data 2024; 11:425. [PMID: 38658632 PMCID: PMC11043353 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03230-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Near-surface atmospheric moisture is a key environmental and hydro-climatic variable that has significant implications for the natural and human systems. However, high-resolution moisture data are severely lacking for fine-scale studies. Here, we develop the first 1 km high spatial resolution dataset of monthly moisture index collection in China (HiMIC-Monthly) over a long period of 2003~2020. HiMIC-Monthly is generated by the light gradient boosting machine algorithm (LightGBM) based on observations at 2,419 weather stations and multiple covariates, including land surface temperature, vapor pressure, land cover, impervious surface proportion, population density, and topography. This collection includes six commonly used moisture indices, enabling fine-scale assessment of moisture conditions from different perspectives. Results show that the HiMIC-Monthly dataset has a good performance, with R2 values for all six moisture indices exceeding 0.96 and root mean square error and mean absolute error values within a reasonable range. The dataset exhibits high consistency with in situ observations over various spatial and temporal regimes, demonstrating broad applicability and strong reliability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 51006, China
| | - Ming Luo
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 51006, China.
- Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China.
| | - Wenfeng Zhan
- Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Yongquan Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China
| | - Yuanjian Yang
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Erjia Ge
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Guicai Ning
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Jing Cong
- Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin, 300074, China
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2
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de Souza WM, Weaver SC. Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases. Nat Rev Microbiol 2024:10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0. [PMID: 38486116 DOI: 10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M de Souza
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Scott C Weaver
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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Hong H, Eom TH, Trinh TTT, Tuan BD, Park H, Yeo SJ. Identification of breeding habitats and kdr mutations in Anopheles spp. in South Korea. Malar J 2023; 22:381. [PMID: 38104158 PMCID: PMC10724954 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04821-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malaria is still endemic in South Korea. However, limited information is available on the current Anopheles breeding sites and the occurrence of insecticide resistance-associated genetic mutations and their distribution needed to control the malaria vector efficiently. METHODS This study explored breeding sites of Anopheline adults in Gimpo-si, near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) in Gyeonggi-do province, South Korea, from 2022 to 2023. Genetic diversity was investigated based on the internal transcribed spacer (ITS2), cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI), and knockdown resistance (kdr) genes of Anopheles mosquitoes. A natural environment associated with the seasonal abundance of Anopheles larvae was characterized. RESULTS Two breeding sites of Anopheles larvae and adults were found at a stream margin or shallow freshwater near the forest in Wolgot-myeon in Gimpo-si without cattle shed within 1 km and in Naega-myeon in Ganghwa-gun with cow shed within 100 m in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Both sites were located between the newly cultivated lands and the forest. Besides, both breeding sites were in the valley at a slight elevation of 60-70 m from ground lands and maintained the shadow all day. Overall, the Wolgot-myeon breeding site showed various Anopheles spp. larvae, including Anopheles sinensis. Naega-myeon, an additional breeding site found in 2023, had Anopheles sineroides larvae, and approximately 59.7% (89/149) of An. sinensis adults inhabited within a 100-m distance. The total collection, including larvae and adults, revealed that An. sinensis, Anopheles pullus, Anopheles kleini, An. sineroides, Anopheles belenrae, and Anopheles lindesayi accounted for 44.2% (118/267), 0.7% (2/267), 0.7% (2/267), 22.1% (59/267), 1.9% (5/267), and 30.3% (81/267), respectively. Furthermore, various kdr mutant genotypes (F/F, C/C, L/F, L/C and F/C) in An. sinensis, and the first kdr allele mutant (L/F1014) in An. belenrae were identified in South Korea. CONCLUSIONS Two breeding sites of Anopheles larvae were studied in Wolgot-myeon and Naega-myeon. Various Anopheles spp. larvae were detected in both habitats, but overall, An. sinensis was the most prevalent adults in both study sites. The occurrence of kdr allele mutant of An. belenrae in South Korea was reported. Rigorous larvae monitoring of Anopheles spp., continuously updating information on Anopheles breeding sites, and understanding the environmental conditions of Anopheles habitats are required to develop an effective malaria control programme in South Korea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyelee Hong
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea
| | - Tae-Hui Eom
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea
| | - Thuy-Tien Thi Trinh
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Medical Research Center, Institute of Endemic Diseases, Seoul National University, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea
| | - Bao Duong Tuan
- Zoonosis Research Center, Department of Infection Biology, School of Medicine, Wonkwang University, 460 Iksan-Daero, Iksan, 54538, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyun Park
- Zoonosis Research Center, Department of Infection Biology, School of Medicine, Wonkwang University, 460 Iksan-Daero, Iksan, 54538, Republic of Korea
| | - Seon-Ju Yeo
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea.
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Medical Research Center, Institute of Endemic Diseases, Seoul National University, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea.
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Santos-Vega M, Lowe R, Anselin L, Desai V, Vaishnav KG, Naik A, Pascual M. Quantifying climatic and socioeconomic drivers of urban malaria in Surat, India: a statistical spatiotemporal modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e985-e998. [PMID: 38056969 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00249-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2020] [Revised: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cities are becoming increasingly important habitats for mosquito vectors of disease. The pronounced heterogeneity of urban landscapes challenges our understanding of the effects of climate and socioeconomic factors on mosquito-borne disease dynamics at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, we quantify the impact of climatic and socioeconomic factors on urban malaria risk, using an extensive dataset in both space and time for reported Plasmodium falciparum cases in the city of Surat, northwest India. METHODS We analysed 10 years of monthly P falciparum cases resolved at three nested spatial resolutions (seven zones, 32 units, and 478 worker units) with a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model that incorporates the effects of population density, poverty, relative humidity, and temperature, in addition to random effects (structured and unstructured). To reduce dimensionality and avoid correlation of covariates, socioeconomic variables from survey data were summarised into main axes of variation using principal component analysis. With model selection, we identified the main drivers of spatiotemporal variation in malaria incidence rates at each of the three spatial resolutions. We also compared observations to model-fitted cases by quantifying the percentage of predictions within five discrete levels of malaria risk. FINDINGS The spatial variation of urban malaria cases was stationary over time, whereby locations with high and low yearly cases remained largely consistent across years. Local socioeconomic variation could be summarised with three principal components accounting for approximately 80% of the variance. The model that incorporated local temperature and relative humidity together with two of these principal components, largely representing population density and poverty, best explained monthly malaria patterns in models formulated at the three different spatial scales. As model resolution increased, the effect size of humidity decreased, whereas those of temperature and the principal component associated with population density increased. Model predictions accurately captured aggregated total monthly cases for the city; in space-time, they more closely matched observations at the intermediate scale, with around 57% of units estimated to fall in the observed category on average across years. The mean absolute error was lower at the intermediate level, showing that this is the best aggregation level to predict the space-time dynamics of malaria incidence rates across the city with the selected model. INTERPRETATION This statistical modelling framework provides a basis for development of a climate-driven early warning system for urban malaria for the units of Surat, including spatially explicit prediction of malaria risk several weeks to months in advance. Results indicate environmental and socioeconomic covariates for which further measurement at high resolution should lead to model improvement. Advanced warning combined with local surveillance and knowledge of disease hotspots within the city could inform targeted intervention as part of urban malaria elimination efforts. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauricio Santos-Vega
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas and Grupo de Investigación en Biología Matemática y Computacional BIOMAC, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia.
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Luc Anselin
- Center for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Vikas Desai
- Urban Health and Climate Resilience Center of Excellence (UHCRCE), Surat, India
| | - Keshav G Vaishnav
- Vector Borne Diseases Control Department, Surat Municipal Corporation, Surat, India
| | | | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; Department of Biology and Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, NY, USA
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Fu JX, Liu Y, Chen LH, Han WK, Liu X, Shao JX, Yan X, Gu ZG. Positional Isomers of Covalent Organic Frameworks for Indoor Humidity Regulation. Small 2023; 19:e2303897. [PMID: 37533408 DOI: 10.1002/smll.202303897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Revised: 07/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023]
Abstract
Humidity is one of the most important indicators affecting human health. Here, a pair of covalent organic frameworks (COFs) of positional isomers (p-COF and o-COF) for indoor humidity regulation is reported. Although p-COF and o-COF have the same sql topology and pore size, they exhibit different water adsorption behaviors due to the subtle differences in water adsorption sites. Particularly, o-COF exhibits a steep adsorption isotherm in the range of 45-65% RH with a hysteresis loop, which is perfectly suitable for indoor humidity regulation. In the laboratory experiment, when the humidity of the external environment is 20-75% RH, o-COF can control the humidity of the room in the range of 45-60% RH. o-COF has shown great potential as a dual humidification/dehumidification adsorbent for indoor humidity regulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia-Xing Fu
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Yong Liu
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Liang-Hui Chen
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Wang-Kang Han
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Xin Liu
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Jun-Xiang Shao
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Xiaodong Yan
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
| | - Zhi-Guo Gu
- Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Biological Colloids, Ministry of Education, School of Chemical and Material Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, P. R. China
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6
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Cascante-Vega J, Galanti M, Schley K, Pei S, Shaman J. Inference of transmission dynamics and retrospective forecast of invasive meningococcal disease. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011564. [PMID: 37889910 PMCID: PMC10655980 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2023] [Revised: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The pathogenic bacteria Neisseria meningitidis, which causes invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), predominantly colonizes humans asymptomatically; however, invasive disease occurs in a small proportion of the population. Here, we explore the seasonality of IMD and develop and validate a suite of models for simulating and forecasting disease outcomes in the United States. We combine the models into multi-model ensembles (MME) based on the past performance of the individual models, as well as a naive equally weighted aggregation, and compare the retrospective forecast performance over a six-month forecast horizon. Deployment of the complete vaccination regimen, introduced in 2011, coincided with a change in the periodicity of IMD, suggesting altered transmission dynamics. We found that a model forced with the period obtained by local power wavelet decomposition best fit and forecast observations. In addition, the MME performed the best across the entire study period. Finally, our study included US-level data until 2022, allowing study of a possible IMD rebound after relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, no evidence of a rebound was found. Our findings demonstrate the ability of process-based models to retrospectively forecast IMD and provide a first analysis of the seasonality of IMD before and after the complete vaccination regimen.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaime Cascante-Vega
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Marta Galanti
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
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7
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Cazelles B, Cazelles K, Tian H, Chavez M, Pascual M. Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadf7202. [PMID: 37756402 PMCID: PMC10530079 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adf7202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Identifying climate drivers is essential to understand and predict epidemics of mosquito-borne infections whose population dynamics typically exhibit seasonality and multiannual cycles. Which climate covariates to consider varies across studies, from local factors such as temperature to remote drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. With partial wavelet coherence, we present a systematic investigation of nonstationary associations between mosquito-borne disease incidence and a given climate factor while controlling for another. Analysis of almost 200 time series of dengue and malaria around the globe at different geographical scales shows a systematic effect of global climate drivers on interannual variability and of local ones on seasonality. This clear separation of time scales of action enhances detection of climate drivers and indicates those best suited for building early-warning systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernard Cazelles
- UMMISCO, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
- Eco-Evolution Mathématique, IBENS, CNRS UMR-8197, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - Kévin Cazelles
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
- inSileco Inc., 2-775 Avenue Monk, Québec, Québec, Canada
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Mario Chavez
- Hôpital de la Pitié-Salpêtrière, CNRS UMR-7225, Paris, France
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA
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8
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Pradhan S, Hore S, Roy S, Manna S, Dam P, Mondal R, Ghati A, Biswas T, Shaw S, Sharma S, Singh WS, Maji SK, Roy S, Basu A, Pandey KC, Samanta S, Vashisht K, Dolai TK, Kundu PK, Mitra S, Biswas D, Sadat A, Shokriyan M, Maity AB, Mandal AK, İnce İA. Geo-environmental factors and the effectiveness of mulberry leaf extract in managing malaria. Sci Rep 2023; 13:14808. [PMID: 37684270 PMCID: PMC10491663 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-41668-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Malaria prevalence has become medically important and a socioeconomic impediment for the endemic regions, including Purulia, West Bengal. Geo-environmental variables, humidity, altitude, and land use patterns are responsible for malaria. For surveillance of the endemic nature of Purulia's blocks, statistical and spatiotemporal factors analysis have been done here. Also, a novel approach for the Pf malaria treatment using methanolic leaf extract of Morus alba S1 has significantly reduced the parasite load. The EC50 value (1.852) of the methanolic extract of M. alba S1 with P. falciparum 3D7 strain is close to the EC50 value (0.998) of the standard drug chloroquine with the same chloroquine-sensitive strain. Further studies with an in-silico model have shown successful interaction between DHFR and the phytochemicals. Both 1-octadecyne and oxirane interacted favourably, which was depicted through GC-MS analysis. The predicted binary logistic regression model will help the policy makers for epidemiological surveillance in malaria-prone areas worldwide when substantial climate variables create a circumstance favourable for malaria. From the in vitro and in silico studies, it can be concluded that the methanolic extract of M. alba S1 leaves were proven to have promising antiplasmodial activity. Thus, there is a scope for policy-driven approach for discovering and developing these lead compounds and undermining the rising resistance to the frontline anti-malarial drugs in the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sayantan Pradhan
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
- Hematology Department, Nil Ratan Sircar Medical College and Hospital, Kolkata, 700014, India
| | - Samrat Hore
- Department of Statistics, Tripura University, Agartala, Tripura, 799022, India
| | - Stabak Roy
- Department of Geography and Disaster Management, Tripura University, Agartala, Tripura, 799022, India
| | - Simi Manna
- Department of Bio-Medical Laboratory Science and Management, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, 721102, India
| | - Paulami Dam
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Rittick Mondal
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Amit Ghati
- Department of Microbiology, Barrackpore Rastraguru Surendranath College, Barrackpore, West Bengal, 700120, India
| | - Trishanjan Biswas
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Subhajit Shaw
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Supriya Sharma
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector-8, Dwarka, New Delhi, 110077, India
| | | | - Suman Kumar Maji
- District Public Health Centre, Deben Mahata Government Medical College and Hospital, Purulia, West Bengal, 723101, India
| | - Sankarsan Roy
- PH and CD Branch, Office of the Chief Medical Officer of Health, Purulia, West Bengal, 723101, India
| | - Aparajita Basu
- Department of Microbiology, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700019, India
| | - Kailash C Pandey
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector-8, Dwarka, New Delhi, 110077, India
| | - Soumadri Samanta
- Advanced Functional Nanomaterials, Energy and Environment Unit, Institute of Nano Science and Technology (INST), Phase X, SAS Nagar, Mohali, Punjab, 160062, India
| | - Kapil Vashisht
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector-8, Dwarka, New Delhi, 110077, India
| | - Tuphan Kanti Dolai
- Hematology Department, Nil Ratan Sircar Medical College and Hospital, Kolkata, 700014, India
| | - Pratip Kumar Kundu
- Department of Microbiology, Santiniketan Medical College, Gobindapur, Muluk, Bolpur, Birbhum, West Bengal, 731204, India
| | - Saptarshi Mitra
- Department of Geography and Disaster Management, Tripura University, Agartala, Tripura, 799022, India
| | - Debasish Biswas
- Department of Economics, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Abdul Sadat
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India
| | - Masuma Shokriyan
- Department of Medical Microbiology, School of Medicine, Acibadem Mehmet Ali Aydınlar University, 34752, Ataşehir, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Amit Bikram Maity
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Institute of Post Graduate Medical Education and Research (S.S.K.M. Hospital), Kolkata, West Bengal, 700020, India.
| | - Amit Kumar Mandal
- Department of Sericulture, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India.
- Centre for Nanotechnology Sciences, Raiganj University, North Dinajpur, West Bengal, 733134, India.
| | - İkbal Agah İnce
- Department of Medical Microbiology, School of Medicine, Acibadem Mehmet Ali Aydınlar University, 34752, Ataşehir, Istanbul, Turkey.
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Brown JJ, Pascual M, Wimberly MC, Johnson LR, Murdock CC. Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:1029-1049. [PMID: 37349261 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel J Brown
- Department of Entomology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Michael C Wimberly
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
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Armando CJ, Rocklöv J, Sidat M, Tozan Y, Mavume AF, Bunker A, Sewes MO. Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1162535. [PMID: 37325319 PMCID: PMC10267345 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1162535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity (RH), and Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI), influence malaria transmission dynamics. However, an understanding of interactions between socioeconomic indicators, environmental factors and malaria incidence can help design interventions to alleviate the high burden of malaria infections on vulnerable populations. Our study thus aimed to investigate the socioeconomic and climatological factors influencing spatial and temporal variability of malaria infections in Mozambique. Methods We used monthly malaria cases from 2016 to 2018 at the district level. We developed an hierarchical spatial-temporal model in a Bayesian framework. Monthly malaria cases were assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution. We used integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in R for Bayesian inference and distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) framework to explore exposure-response relationships between climate variables and risk of malaria infection in Mozambique, while adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Results A total of 19,948,295 malaria cases were reported between 2016 and 2018 in Mozambique. Malaria risk increased with higher monthly mean temperatures between 20 and 29°C, at mean temperature of 25°C, the risk of malaria was 3.45 times higher (RR 3.45 [95%CI: 2.37-5.03]). Malaria risk was greatest for NDVI above 0.22. The risk of malaria was 1.34 times higher (1.34 [1.01-1.79]) at monthly RH of 55%. Malaria risk reduced by 26.1%, for total monthly precipitation of 480 mm (0.739 [95%CI: 0.61-0.90]) at lag 2 months, while for lower total monthly precipitation of 10 mm, the risk of malaria was 1.87 times higher (1.87 [1.30-2.69]). After adjusting for climate variables, having lower level of education significantly increased malaria risk (1.034 [1.014-1.054]) and having electricity (0.979 [0.967-0.992]) and sharing toilet facilities (0.957 [0.924-0.991]) significantly reduced malaria risk. Conclusion Our current study identified lag patterns and association between climate variables and malaria incidence in Mozambique. Extremes in climate variables were associated with an increased risk of malaria transmission, peaks in transmission were varied. Our findings provide insights for designing early warning, prevention, and control strategies to minimize seasonal malaria surges and associated infections in Mozambique a region where Malaria causes substantial burden from illness and deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaibo Jose Armando
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Mohsin Sidat
- Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Yesim Tozan
- School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, United States
| | | | - Aditi Bunker
- Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewes
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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11
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Nduwayezu G, Zhao P, Kagoyire C, Eklund L, Bizimana JP, Pilesjo P, Mansourian A. Understanding the spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between malaria incidence and environmental risk factors using Geographically Weighted Random Forest: A case study in Rwanda. Geospat Health 2023; 18. [PMID: 37246535 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2023.1184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
As found in the health studies literature, the levels of climate association between epidemiological diseases have been found to vary across regions. Therefore, it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that relationships might vary spatially within regions. We implemented the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) machine learning method to analyze ecological disease patterns caused by spatially non-stationary processes using a malaria incidence dataset for Rwanda. We first compared the geographically weighted regression (WGR), the global random forest (GRF), and the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to examine the spatial non-stationarity in the non-linear relationships between malaria incidence and their risk factors. We used the Gaussian areal kriging model to disaggregate the malaria incidence at the local administrative cell level to understand the relationships at a fine scale since the model goodness of fit was not satisfactory to explain malaria incidence due to the limited number of sample values. Our results show that in terms of the coefficients of determination and prediction accuracy, the geographical random forest model performs better than the GWR and the global random forest model. The coefficients of determination of the geographically weighted regression (R2), the global RF (R2), and the GWRF (R2) were 4.74, 0.76, and 0.79, respectively. The GWRF algorithm achieves the best result and reveals that risk factors (rainfall, land surface temperature, elevation, and air temperature) have a strong non-linear relationship with the spatial distribution of malaria incidence rates, which could have implications for supporting local initiatives for malaria elimination in Rwanda.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gilbert Nduwayezu
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering, University of Rwanda.
| | - Pengxiang Zhao
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund.
| | - Clarisse Kagoyire
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Centre for Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing, University of Rwanda, Kigali.
| | - Lina Eklund
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund.
| | | | - Petter Pilesjo
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund.
| | - Ali Mansourian
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Lund University's Profile Area: Nature-based Future Solutions.
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12
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Asadgol Z, Badirzadeh A, Mirahmadi H, Safari H, Mohammadi H, Gholami M. Simulation of the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2023:10.1007/s11356-023-27374-7. [PMID: 37219776 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27374-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can increase the spread of infectious diseases and public health concerns. Malaria is one of the endemic infectious diseases of Iran, whose transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. The effect of climate change on malaria in the southeastern Iran from 2021 to 2050 was simulated by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Gamma test (GT) and general circulation models (GCMs) were used to determine the best delay time and to generate the future climate model under two distinct scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). To simulate the various impacts of climate change on malaria infection, ANNs were applied using daily collected data for 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). The future climate of the study area will be hotter by 2050. The simulation of malaria cases elucidated that there is an intense increasing trend in malaria cases under the RCP8.5 scenario until 2050, with the highest number of infections occurring in the warmer months. Rainfall and maximum temperature were identified as the most influential input variables. Optimum temperatures and increased rainfall provide a suitable environment for the transmission of parasites and cause an intense increase in the number of infection cases with a delay of approximately 90 days. ANNs were introduced as a practical tool for simulating the impact of climate change on the prevalence, geographic distribution, and biological activity of malaria and for estimating the future trend of the disease in order to adopt protective measures in endemic areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Asadgol
- Health Deputy, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Badirzadeh
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hadi Mirahmadi
- Clinical Immunology Research Center, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, Faculty of Medicine, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Hossein Safari
- Health Promotion Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamed Mohammadi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
| | - Mitra Gholami
- Research Center for Environmental Health Technology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
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13
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Yaladanda N, Mopuri R, Vavilala H, Bhimala KR, Gouda KC, Kadiri MR, Upadhyayula SM, Mutheneni SR. The synergistic effect of climatic factors on malaria transmission: a predictive approach for northeastern states of India. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2023; 30:59194-59211. [PMID: 36997790 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-26672-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
The northeast region of India is highlighted as the most vulnerable region for malaria. This study attempts to explore the epidemiological profile and quantify the climate-induced influence on malaria cases in the context of tropical states, taking Meghalaya and Tripura as study areas. Monthly malaria cases and meteorological data from 2011 to 2018 and 2013 to 2019 were collected from the states of Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The nonlinear associations between individual and synergistic effect of meteorological factors and malaria cases were assessed, and climate-based malaria prediction models were developed using the generalized additive model (GAM) with Gaussian distribution. During the study period, a total of 216,943 and 125,926 cases were recorded in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively, and majority of the cases occurred due to the infection of Plasmodium falciparum in both the states. The temperature and relative humidity in Meghalaya and temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and soil moisture in Tripura showed a significant nonlinear effect on malaria; moreover, the synergistic effects of temperature and relative humidity (SI=2.37, RERI=0.58, AP=0.29) and temperature and rainfall (SI=6.09, RERI=2.25, AP=0.61) were found to be the key determinants of malaria transmission in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The developed climate-based malaria prediction models are able to predict the malaria cases accurately in both Meghalaya (RMSE: 0.0889; R2: 0.944) and Tripura (RMSE: 0.0451; R2: 0.884). The study found that not only the individual climatic factors can significantly increase the risk of malaria transmission but also the synergistic effects of climatic factors can drive the malaria transmission multifold. This reminds the policymakers to pay attention to the control of malaria in situations with high temperature and relative humidity and high temperature and rainfall in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikhila Yaladanda
- EIACP Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500007, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India
| | - Rajasekhar Mopuri
- EIACP Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500007, India
| | - Hariprasad Vavilala
- EIACP Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500007, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India
| | - Kantha Rao Bhimala
- CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, NAL Belur Campus, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560037, India
| | - Krushna Chandra Gouda
- CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, NAL Belur Campus, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560037, India
| | - Madhusudhan Rao Kadiri
- EIACP Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500007, India
| | - Suryanarayana Murty Upadhyayula
- National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (NIPER), Sila Katamur, Halugurisuk, Changsari, Kamrup, Assam, 781101, India
| | - Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni
- EIACP Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500007, India.
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India.
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14
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Wang C, Thakuri B, Roy AK, Mondal N, Qi Y, Chakraborty A. Changes in the associations between malaria incidence and climatic factors across malaria endemic countries in Africa and Asia-Pacific region. J Environ Manage 2023; 331:117264. [PMID: 36634422 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Revised: 12/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Empirical evidence supporting the associations between malaria incidence and climatic factors has remained controversial, buffering the progress in the Global Malaria Program that aims to eliminate 90% of the world malaria burden by 2030. This study has aimed to evaluate the nature and extent at which these relations are maintained across all the malaria endemic countries of Africa and Asia-Pacific region. We have utilized the last two decades of malaria incidence, annual minimum temperature, and annual precipitation time series data (2000-2020) for the two most malaria-impacted regions. These data were fitted in the generalized linear model and the mixed effects model. The results showed that there exists a large heterogeneity in malaria incidence across the countries, and between the regions. Last two decadal tendencies showed significant reductions in the disease burden in almost all the countries in the Asia Pacific, with several exceptions or relatively slowed reductions in the Africa. We found significant changes in the positive linear associations between malaria incidence, annual minimum temperature, and annual precipitation across African countries. Many Asia-Pacific countries namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indonesia, South Korea, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam showed negative effects in the associations with the annual precipitation. This study indicates that increasing temperature within the range of 12-30 °C can generate positive effects on malaria incidence, but the nature and extent of precipitation effects vary across countries and at a large regional scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ce Wang
- School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, PR China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, PR China.
| | - Bikash Thakuri
- Department of Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences, Sikkim University, Gangtok, 737102, Sikkim, India.
| | - Amit Kumar Roy
- Department of Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences, Sikkim University, Gangtok, 737102, Sikkim, India
| | - Nitish Mondal
- Department of Anthropology, School of Human Sciences, Sikkim University, Gangtok, 737102, Sikkim, India
| | - Yi Qi
- School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, PR China
| | - Amit Chakraborty
- Department of Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences, Sikkim University, Gangtok, 737102, Sikkim, India.
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15
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Li C, Managi S. Global malaria infection risk from climate change. Environ Res 2022; 214:114028. [PMID: 35940231 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2022] [Revised: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
As a long-standing public health issue, malaria still severely affects many parts of the world, especially Africa. With greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures continue to rise. Based on diverse shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), future temperatures can be estimated. However, the impacts of climate change on malaria infection rates in all epidemic regions are unknown. Here, we estimate the differences in global malaria infection rates predicted under different SSPs during several periods as well as malaria infection case changes (MICCs) resulting from those differences. Our results indicate that the global MICCs resulting from the conversion from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5, to SSP3-7.0, and to SSP5-8.5 are 6.506 (with a 95% uncertainty interval [UI] of 6.150-6.861) million, 3.655 (3.416-3.894) million, and 2.823 (2.635-3.012) million, respectively, from 2021 to 2040; these values represent increases of 2.699%, 1.517%, and 1.171%, respectively, compared to the 241 million infection cases reported in 2020. Temperatures increases will adversely affect malaria the most in Africa during the 2021-2040 period. From 2081 to 2100, the MICCs obtained for the three scenario shifts listed above are -79.109 (-83.626 to -74.591) million, -238.337 (-251.920 to -0.141) million, and -162.692 (-174.628 to -150.757) million, corresponding to increases of -32.825%, -98.895%, and -67.507%, respectively. Climate change will increase the danger and risks associated with malaria in the most vulnerable regions in the near term, thus aggravating the difficulty of eliminating malaria. Reducing GHG emissions is a potential pathway to protecting people from malaria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Li
- Urban Institute, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan
| | - Shunsuke Managi
- Urban Institute, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
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