Evaporative cooling over the Tibetan Plateau induced by vegetation growth

Nonlinear time effects of vegetation response to climate change: Evidence from Qilian Mountain National Park in China

Vegetation responses to climate change are typically nonlinear with varied time effects, yet current research lacks comprehensiveness and precise definitions, hindering a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study focuses on the mountain-type Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNP), investigating the characteristics and patterns of these nonlinear time effects using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on MODIS-NDVI, growing season temperature, and precipitation data. The results show that 1) The time effects of climate change on vegetation exhibit significant spatial variations, differing across vegetation types and topographic conditions. Accounting for optimal time effects can increase the explanatory power of climate on vegetation change by 6.8 %. Precipitation responses are mainly characterized by time-lag and time-accumulation effects, notably in meadows and steppes, while temperature responses are largely cumulative, especially in steppes. The altitude and slope significantly influence the pattern of vegetation response to climate, particularly in areas with high altitudes and steep slopes. 2) There is a significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation growth and both precipitation and temperature, with the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and vegetation being stronger than that with temperature, particularly in the western and central regions of the park. Different vegetation types exhibit significant variations in their response to climate change, with deserts and steppes being more sensitive to precipitation. 3) Precipitation is the primary driver of vegetation change in the QMNP, particularly for high-elevation vegetation and herbaceous vegetation. The complex temporal patterns of vegetation response to climate change in the QMNP not only deepen the understanding of the intricate relationship between regional vegetation and climate variability but also provide a methodological reference for global studies on vegetation responses to climate change.

Reconciling East Asia's mid-Holocene temperature discrepancy through vegetation-climate feedback

The term "Holocene temperature conundrum" refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations, and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during the Holocene. Climate reconstructions indicate a cooling trend following the Holocene Thermal Maximum, while model simulations indicate a consistent warming trend due to ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Various factors, such as seasonal biases and overlooked feedback processes, have been proposed as potential causes for this discrepancy. In this study, we examined the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the temperature anomaly patterns in East Asia during the mid-Holocene (∼6 ka). By utilizing the fully coupled Earth system model EC-Earth and performing simulations with and without coupled dynamic vegetation, our objective was to isolate the influence of vegetation changes on regional temperature patterns. Our findings reveal that vegetation-climate feedback contributed to warming across most of East Asia, resulting in spatially diverse temperature changes during the mid-Holocene and significantly improved model-data agreement. These results highlight the crucial role of vegetation-climate feedback in addressing the Holocene temperature conundrum and emphasize its importance for simulating accurate climate scenarios.

Widespread cooling of topsoil under nitrogen enrichment and implication for soil carbon flux

Increasing reactive nitrogen (N) to terrestrial ecosystems is considered to enhance ecosystem carbon sink, which plays a critical role in ameliorating global warming. Besides this indirect buffering of temperature rise, the N-induced enhancement of vegetation growth may exert a biophysical cooling effect on soils. However, the magnitude and drivers of this cooling effect have rarely been evaluated. Here, using a global meta-analysis with 321 paired measurements, we demonstrated a widespread topsoil cooling (-0.30 °C in average) under anthropogenic N enrichment, which was primarily associated with the increase in aboveground biomass. This biophysical cooling could also buffer topsoil temperature rise by an average of 0.39 °C under experimental warming. Further, the reduced soil temperature was found to contribute to a reduction of soil respiration rate as temperature declines gradually. Overall, our results underpin a previously overlooked function of global N enrichment-the lowering of topsoil temperature, which suggests that the warming of topsoil may not be as fast as previously predicted under future global change scenarios. This biophysical cooling effect will also slow down soil carbon emissions and further mitigate climate warming.

The rising human footprint in the Tibetan Plateau threatens the effectiveness of ecological restoration on vegetation growth

Ecological restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau aimed to reverse ecosystem degradation and safeguard the fragile alpine ecological environment. However, it is still being determined if the vegetation restoration is successful on a large scale or reaches the expected magnitude, restricting our ability to adapt practices to maximise the benefit. With multiple vegetation indices (VIs: NDVI, LAI, and GPP) from satellite observations and random forest machine-learning models, we performed an attribution study on vegetation growth trends caused by climate change and human activities. Then, we further explored the relationship between vegetation growth and ecological projects and human footprint without the influence of climate. The results showed that climatic change was a relatively strong driver of vegetation growth. The positive contributions of ecological restoration occurred only in half of the plateau due to the increased human footprint. Vegetation enhancement resulting from ecological restoration occurred in 13.1%-23.1% of the plateau. Among these values, ecological restoration counteracted the negative climate effects in 4.7%-8.3% of the plateau (about half of the negative climate effect area). In forest and grassland protection areas, the ecological restoration was more successful. The study provides a better understanding of the role of ecological projects in vegetation restoration and potential threats to its effectiveness. This is essential to improve future restoration projects.

Spatial variations in the difference in elevational shifts between greenness and temperature isolines across the Tibetan Plateau grasslands under warming

Climate warming has induced widespread isotherm shifts toward higher elevations on the Tibetan Plateau, but elevational shifts of vegetation greenness (indicated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) do not necessarily keep pace with the isotherm shifts. Thus, there should be spatial variations in the difference between the velocities of vertical movement of greenness isolines (VNDVI) and isotherms (VT) across the Tibetan Plateau grasslands. Using satellite-observed NDVI and gridded climate data during 2000-2017, we found uphill shifts of the isotherms in 81.8 % of the surveyed areas, mainly in the eastern, central, southwestern, and northeastern parts, whereas upward shifts of the greenness isolines were observed only in 49.7 % of these areas, mainly in the southeastern, west-central, and southwestern edge of Tibetan Plateau grasslands. In the areas where both the greenness isolines and isotherms shifted uphill, VDNVI was faster than VT in the west-central and northeastern parts, and VNDVI was smaller than VT in the western, south-central, central, and southeastern regions; the difference between VNDVI and VT was positively related with elevational gradient of NDVI (NDVIEG) in the areas where NDVIEG was negative and the temporal trend of NDVI was positive, and was negatively related with NDVIEG and temporal trends of NDVI and temperature in the areas where NDVIEG was positive and temporal trend of NDVI was negative. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the difference in the elevational shifts between the isotherm and vegetation greenness isoline across the Tibetan Plateau grasslands, which is related with both diverse adaptation to local environment (NDVIEG) and complex responses of vegetation greenness to warming in terms of both direction and magnitude. These findings have important implications for the prediction of vegetation production and carbon cycle and the adaptive management of alpine grasslands under climate change.

Discriminating the impacts of vegetation greening and climate change on the changes in evapotranspiration and transpiration fraction over the Yellow River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital parameter in terrestrial water-energy cycles. The transpiration fraction (TF) is defined as the ratio of transpiration (T) to evapotranspiration (ET), representing the contribution rate of vegetation transpiration to ecosystem ET. Quantifying the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change on the ET and TF dynamic is of great significance to better understand the water budget between the land and atmosphere. Here, we chose Yellow River Basin (YRB) as the study area and analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of ET, T, and TF from 1982 to 2015 using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. Meanwhile, the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change to ET, T and TF change were quantified. Model evaluation showed that the PT-JPL model performs well in the simulation of ET and T. During 1982-2015, the average annual ET, T, and TF increased at a rate of 3.20 mm/a, 0.77 mm/a and 0.003/a over the YRB during 1982-2015, respectively. The regions with significant increases in ET, T and TF almost covered the whole study area except for the upper reaches of the YRB. Vegetation greening was the main factor for the increase of ET and TF in the YRB and enhanced ET and TF at a rate of 0.72 mm/a and 0.57/a, respectively, which mainly observed in the entire Loess Plateau region (over 50 % of the study area). Precipitation (PRE) was also the dominated factor contributing to the increase in ET and TF, and temperature (TEM) showed a positive correlation with the changes in ET and TF in the most areas of YRB, which jointly dominated ET changes in the upper reaches of the YRB and TF changes in the southern part of the basin. Except for the total effects, leaf area index (LAI) also indirectly promoted ET changes by affecting PRE, TEM and relative humidity (RH). While wind speed (WS) and radiation (RAD) had a relatively weak regulatory effect on the changes in ET and TF. These findings were helpful for regional water resources management and formulating water resources-sustainable vegetation restoration strategies for local government.

Past and future trends of diurnal temperature range and their correlation with vegetation assessed by MODIS and CMIP6

Temperature anomalies and changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are expected to pose physiological challenges to biota; hence, both spatial and temporal variations in DTR provide important insights into temperature-induced stress in humans, animals, and vegetation. Furthermore, vegetation could dampen temperature variability. Here, we use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data of Land Surface Temperature (LST) to evaluate the global variation in DTR and its rate of change in spatial and temporal scales for the two decades spanning from 2001 to 2020. We show that North America, Africa, and Antarctica, as well as the global mean, experienced statistically significant DTR rates of change over the last 20 years in either summer, winter, or the annual mean. The rates were all negative, indicating the day-night temperature differences are decreasing in those regions because night temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than day temperatures. MODIS data of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) revealed a strongly negative correlation with DTR, with a spatial correlation coefficient of -0.61. This correlation demonstrates a prominent dampening effect of vegetation on diurnal temperature oscillations. For future DTR projections, we used 19 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to predict global DTR trends from 2021 to 2050 with low and high CO2 concentration scenarios. The high CO2 emission scenario projects significant decreases in DTR in circumpolar regions, central Africa, and India compared to the low CO2 scenario. This difference in the two scenarios underscores the substantial influence of increased global temperatures and elevated CO2 concentration on DTR and, consequently, on the ecosystems in certain regions.

Decoupling the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming over the Qinghai-Tibet plateau from 2001 to 2020

Global land surface air temperature data show that in the past 50 years, the rate of nighttime warming has been much faster than that of daytime, with the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) increasing about 40% faster than the maximum daily temperature (Tmax), resulting in a decreased diurnal temperature difference. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is known as the "roof of the world", where temperatures have risen twice as fast as the global average warming rate in the last few decades. The factors affecting vegetation growth on the QTP are complex and still not fully understood to some extent. Previous studies paid less attention to the explanations of the complicated interactions and pathways between elements that influence vegetation growth, such as climate (especially asymmetric warming) and topography. In this study, we characterized the spatial and temporal trends of vegetation coverage and investigated the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming and topography in the QTP during 2001-2020 using trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) analysis. We found that from 2001 to 2020, the entire QTP demonstrated a greening trend in the growing season (April to October) at a rate of 0.0006/a (p < 0.05). The spatial distribution pattern of partial correlation between NDVI and Tmax differed from that of NDVI and Tmin. PLS-SEM results indicated that asymmetric warming (both Tmax and Tmin) had a consistent effect on vegetation development by directly promoting greening in the QTP, with NDVI values being more sensitive to Tmin, while topographic factors, especially elevation, mainly played an indirect role in influencing vegetation growth by affecting climate change. This study offers new insights into how vegetation responds to asymmetric warming and references for local ecological preservation.

Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands

Recent studies have reported worldwide vegetation suppression in response to increasing atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Here, we integrate multisource datasets to show that increasing VPD caused by warming alone does not suppress vegetation growth in northern peatlands. A site-level manipulation experiment and a multiple-site synthesis find a neutral impact of rising VPD on vegetation growth; regional analysis manifests a strong declining gradient of VPD suppression impacts from sparsely distributed peatland to densely distributed peatland. The major mechanism adopted by plants in response to rising VPD is the "open" water-use strategy, where stomatal regulation is relaxed to maximize carbon uptake. These unique surface characteristics evolve in the wet soil‒air environment in the northern peatlands. The neutral VPD impacts observed in northern peatlands contrast with the vegetation suppression reported in global nonpeatland areas under rising VPD caused by concurrent warming and decreasing relative humidity, suggesting model improvement for representing VPD impacts in northern peatlands remains necessary.

Differential responses of CO2 and latent heat fluxes to climatic anomalies on two alpine grasslands on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Discrete extreme heat events, deluges, and droughts will become more frequent and disproportionately affect the processes and functions of grassland ecosystems. Here, we compared the responses of CO2 and heat fluxes to natural extreme events in 2016 in a lower alpine meadow and neighboring upper shrubland on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Unlike insensitive sensible heat flux, latent heat flux (LE) increased by 21.8 % in the meadow and by 56.4 % in the shrubland during a dry period and subsequent compound hot-dry period in August. Changes (Δ, data for 2016 minus the corresponding means from other years) in the heat flux at both sites were determined by changes in solar radiation (ΔSwin), as sufficient soil moisture was available. ΔLE was more sensitive to ΔSwin in the open-canopy shrubland, reflecting its greater capacity for evaporative cooling to buffer climate anomalies. CO2 fluxes responded weakly to extreme wet or dry events but strongly when those events were accompanied by exceptional heat. During single or compound hot events, the mean changes in total ecosystem respiration (ΔTER) increased by about 30 % in both grasslands, although ΔTER was more sensitive to changes in the topsoil temperature in the more productive meadow than in the shrubland. The mean changes in gross primary productivity (ΔGPP) fluctuated by <10 % in the warmer meadow but increased by 29.3 % in the cooler shrubland relative to the respective baseline, probably because of the differences in canopy structure and root depth and the consequent high-temperature stress on vegetation photosynthesis. The changes in net ecosystem CO2 exchange (ΔNEE) were significantly related to ΔTER in the meadow and increased by 55.8 %, whereas ΔNEE was controlled mainly by ΔGPP in the shrubland and decreased by 22.4 %. Overall, both alpine grasslands were resistant to rainfall anomalies but susceptible to exceptional warmth, with the differential responses being ascribed to canopy structure and root depth. Our results provide helpful insights based on which the carbon sequestration and water-holding functions of alpine grasslands during future climate change can be predicted.

Lagged feedback of peak season photosynthetic activities on local surface temperature in Inner Mongolia, China

Increased vegetation peak growth and phenological shifts toward spring have been observed in response to climate warming in the temperate regions. Such changes have the potential to modify warming by perturbing land‒atmosphere energy exchanges; however, the signs and magnitudes of biophysical feedback on surface temperature in different biomes are largely unknown. Here, we synthesized information from vegetation growth proxies, land surface temperature (LST), and surface energy balance factors (surface evapotranspiration (ET), albedo, and broadband emissivity (BBE)) to investigate the variations in timing (PPT) and productivity (PPmax) of seasonal peak photosynthesis and their time-lagged biophysical feedbacks to the post-season LST in Inner Mongolia (IM) during 2001-2020. We found that increased PPmax, rather than advanced PPT, exhibited a significant impact on LST, with divergent signs and magnitudes across diurnal periods and among different biomes. In the grassland biome, increased PPmax cooled both LST during daytime (LSTday) and nighttime (LSTnight) throughout the post-season period, with a more pronounced response during daytime and diminishing gradually from July to September. This cooling effect on LST was primarily attributed to enhanced ET, as evidenced by the greater effect of ET cooling than that of albedo warming and BBE cooling based on a structural equation model (SEM). In the forest biome, increased PPmax led to a symmetrical warming effect on LSTday and LSTnight, and none of the surface energy balance factors were identified as significant intermediate explanatory factors for the observed warming effect. Moreover, the responses of average LST (LSTmean) and diurnal temperature range of LST (LSTDTR) to variations in PPmax were consistent with those of LSTday at two biomes. The observations above elucidate the divergent feedback mechanisms of vegetation peak growth on LST among different biomes and diurnal cycles, which could facilitate the improvement of the realistic parameterization of surface processes in global climate models.

Spatiotemporal change patterns and driving factors of land surface temperature in the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau from 2000 to 2020

In this study, the spatiotemporal change patterns and driving factors of land surface temperature (LST) on the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau (YKP) during 2000-2020 are investigated by using the Thermal and Reanalysis Integrating Moderate-resolution Spatial-seamless (TRIMS) LST dataset provided by National Tibetan Plateau Data Center. The YKP LST spatiotemporal change patterns are revealed at annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily scales. Furthermore, seven driving factors such as air temperature, land cover types, normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, solar radiation, elevation, and latitude are quantified the impacts on LST spatial heterogeneity at annual scale. The main findings are as follows: (1) Annual mean LST increases by 0.016 K/year. Annual mean daytime LST slightly decreases by 0.009 K/year. Annual mean nighttime LST significantly increases by 0.042 K/year. (2) The trend and seasonal components of the daily, daily mean daytime, and daily mean nighttime LST have five and four breakpoints respectively, indicating that the variation of LST is unstable during 2000-2020 on the YKP. (3) The LST lapse rates at nighttime are generally higher than those at daytime on the YKP at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. The LST maximum lapse rate is 0.59 K/100 m in summer nighttime, and the LST minimum lapse rate is 0.18 K/100 m in winter daytime. (4) The controlling effects of seven factors are generally stronger in the nighttime than those in the daytime. The factors of elevation and air temperature dominate the LST spatial distribution on the YKP, with a contribution rate of >70 %. In addition, the interactions among the seven factors are all enhancing the effects on the spatial distribution of annual mean LST, including bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. This study contributes to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change of LST in the plateau and plays a theoretical reference role in formulating corresponding policies for environmental protection.

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. Using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (-0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (-0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some day-night process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

Vegetation structural shift tells environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau over 40 years

Structural information of grassland changes on the Tibetan Plateau is essential for understanding alterations in critical ecosystem functioning and their underlying drivers that may reflect environmental changes. However, such information at the regional scale is still lacking due to methodological limitations. Beyond remote sensing indicators only recognizing vegetation productivity, we utilized multivariate data fusion and deep learning to characterize formation-based plant community structure in alpine grasslands at the regional scale of the Tibetan Plateau for the first time and compared it with the earlier version of Vegetation Map of China for historical changes. Over the past 40 years, we revealed that (1) the proportion of alpine meadows in alpine grasslands increased from 50% to 69%, well-reflecting the warming and wetting trend; (2) dominances of Kobresia pygmaea and Stipa purpurea formations in alpine meadows and steppes were strengthened to 76% and 92%, respectively; (3) the climate factor mainly drove the distribution of Stipa purpurea formation, but not the recent distribution of Kobresia pygmaea formation that was likely shaped by human activities. Therefore, the underlying mechanisms of grassland changes over the past 40 years were considered to be formation dependent. Overall, the first exploration for structural information of plant community changes in this study not only provides a new perspective to understand drivers of grassland changes and their spatial heterogeneity at the regional scale of the Tibetan Plateau, but also innovates large-scale vegetation study paradigm.

Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change on Forage Nutrition Storage in Tibetan Grasslands

Uncertainties about the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on forage nutrition storage of grasslands can limit the adaptive management of grasslands across the whole Tibetan Plateau. The main objective was to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the forage nutrition storage of grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. Based on random forest models, we quantified the responses of forage nutrition storage to anthropogenic activities and climate change across the whole Tibetan grasslands from 2000 to 2020. Warming and increased precipitation did not always increase forage nutrition storage, and cooling and decreased precipitation did not always reduce forage nutrition storage. Compared to temperature and precipitation changes, radiation change had stronger contributions to potential and actual forage nutrition storage. Humankind's activities altered the impacts of climate change on forage nutrition storage. The impacts of anthropogenic activities on forage nutrition storage increased linearly with increasing mean annual temperature and decreasing elevation but showed quadratic relationships with longitude, mean annual precipitation and radiation. The change in the impacts of humankind's activities on forage nutrition storage was more closely related to radiation change than temperature and precipitation changes. The findings observed by this study caution that the impacts of radiation change on forage nutrition forage should be taken seriously under global change. Both climate change and humankind activities cannot always increase forage nutrition storage but may cause the degradation of forage nutrition storage.

Radiative controls by clouds and thermodynamics shape surface temperatures and turbulent fluxes over land

Land surface temperatures (LSTs) are strongly shaped by radiation but are modulated by turbulent fluxes and hydrologic cycling as the presence of water vapor in the atmosphere (clouds) and at the surface (evaporation) affects temperatures across regions. Here, we used a thermodynamic systems framework forced with independent observations to show that the climatological variations in LSTs across dry and humid regions are mainly mediated through radiative effects. We first show that the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are constrained by thermodynamics and the local radiative conditions. This constraint arises from the ability of radiative heating at the surface to perform work to maintain turbulent fluxes and sustain vertical mixing within the convective boundary layer. This implies that reduced evaporative cooling in dry regions is then compensated for by an increased sensible heat flux and buoyancy, which is consistent with observations. We show that the mean temperature variation across dry and humid regions is mainly controlled by clouds that reduce surface heating by solar radiation. Using satellite observations for cloudy and clear-sky conditions, we show that clouds cool the land surface over humid regions by up to 7 K, while in arid regions, this effect is absent due to the lack of clouds. We conclude that radiation and thermodynamic limits are the primary controls on LSTs and turbulent flux exchange which leads to an emergent simplicity in the observed climatological patterns within the complex climate system.

Long-term evidence of differential resistance and resilience of grassland ecosystems to extreme climate events

Grassland ecosystems are affected by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (e.g., droughts). Understanding how grassland ecosystems maintain their functioning, resistance, and resilience under climatic perturbations is a topic of current concern. Resistance is the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change against extreme climate, while resilience is the ability of an ecosystem to return to its original state after a perturbation. Using the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI_gs, an index of vegetation growth) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (a drought index), we evaluated the response, resistance, and resilience of vegetation to climatic conditions for alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, hay meadow, arid steppe, and semi-arid steppe in northern China for the period 1982-2012. The results show that NDVI_gs varied significantly across these grasslands, with the highest (lowest) NDVI_gs values in alpine grassland (semi-arid steppe). We found increasing trends of greenness in alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, and hay meadow, while there were no detectable changes of NDVI_gs in arid and semi-arid steppes. NDVI_gs decreased with increasing dryness from extreme wet to extreme dry. Alpine and steppe grasslands exhibited higher resistance to and lower resilience after extreme wet, while lower resistance to and higher resilience after extreme dry conditions. No significant differences in resistance and resilience of hay meadow under climatic conditions suggest the stability of this grassland under climatic perturbations. This study concludes that highly resistant grasslands under conditions of water surplus are low resilient, but low resistant ecosystems under conditions of water shortage are highly resilient.

Improvement of transpiration estimation based on a two-leaf conductance-photosynthesis model with seasonal parameters for temperate deciduous forests

Introduction

Conductance-photosynthesis (G_s-A) models, accompanying with light use efficiency (LUE) models for calculating carbon assimilation, are widely used for estimating canopy stomatal conductance (G_s) and transpiration (T_c) under the two-leaf (TL) scheme. However, the key parameters of photosynthetic rate sensitivity (g_su and g_sh) and maximum LUE (ϵ_msu and ϵ_msh) are typically set to temporally constant values for sunlit and shaded leaves, respectively. This may result in T_c estimation errors, as it contradicts field observations.

Methods

In this study, the measured flux data from three temperate deciduous broadleaved forests (DBF) FLUXNET sites were adopted, and the key parameters of LUE and Ball-Berry models for sunlit and shaded leaves were calibrated within the entire growing season and each season, respectively. Then, the estimations of gross primary production (GPP) and T_c were compared between the two schemes of parameterization: (1) entire growing season-based fixed parameters (EGS) and (2) season-specific dynamic parameters (SEA).

Results

Our results show a cyclical variability of ϵ_msu across the sites, with the highest value during the summer and the lowest during the spring. A similar pattern was found for g_su and g_sh, which showed a decrease in summer and a slight increase in both spring and autumn. Furthermore, the SEA model (i.e., the dynamic parameterization) better simulated GPP, with a reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) of about 8.0 ± 1.1% and an improvement in correlation coefficient (r) of 3.7 ± 1.5%, relative to the EGS model. Meanwhile, the SEA scheme reduced T_c simulation errors in terms of RMSE by 3.7 ± 4.4%.

Discussion

These findings provide a greater understanding of the seasonality of plant functional traits, and help to improve simulations of seasonal carbon and water fluxes in temperate forests.

Climate change fostered rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire during 600-800 AD

During the 7-9th century, the Tibetan Empire constituted a superpower between the Tang Empire and Abbasid Caliphate: one that played significant roles in geopolitics in Asia during the Early Medieval Period. The factors which led to the rise and rapid decline of this powerful Empire, the only united historical regime on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), remain unclear. Sub-annual scale precipitation and decadal-scale temperature records of the central TP are presented, indicating that the height of this Empire coincided with a two-century long interval of uncharacteristically warm and humid climate. The ameliorated climate enabled the expansion of arable land and increased agricultural production. The close relationship between the precipitation records and historical events implied that the Empire implemented flexible strategies to tackle the effects of climate changes. This has implications for agricultural production in alpine regions including the TP, in the context of current global warming.

Sedimentary organic molecular compositions reveal the influence of glacier retreat on ecology on the Tibetan Plateau

Global warming and glacier retreat have significant impacts on the structure and function of natural ecosystems. However, little is known about how glacier retreat affects the long-term evolution of ecosystems at high-altitude regions. In this study, we explored the possible effects of glacier retreat on catchment vegetation and lake productivity in Lake Puma Yumco, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on detailed organic molecular compositions determined by an ultra-high-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS), and combined with various sedimentary geochemical indicators. The glaciers in the catchment keep retreating since 1870 CE, as inferred from the multiple indices of total organic carbon content (TOC), total nitrogen content (TN), C/N ratios, and carbonate contents. Accompanying modern global warming and glacier shrinkage, the relative abundance of soil- and vegetation-derived large molecular compounds (e.g., vascular plant-derived polyphenols, highly unsaturated and phenolic compounds, and condensed aromatics) increased gradually in lake sediments, suggesting that ice-covered land was exposed under warming condition, and gradually revegetation occurred. Both increases in relative abundance of nitrogen-containing compounds (e.g., CHNO) and chlorophyll derivative contents in the lake sediments were observed since 1870 CE, suggesting that stronger catchment weathering and increasing terrestrial nutrient loads enhanced the downstream lake productivity after glacier retreat. Our results imply that continued global warming and alpine glacier retreat in the future may further promote vegetation expansion and increases in lake productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

The ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide multiple important ecosystem services that benefit both local populations and those beyond, such as through climate regulation services on precipitation for East Asia and China. However, the precipitation regulation service of the TP ecosystems for supplying moisture and maintaining precipitation is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we used the moisture recycling framework and a moisture tracking model to quantify the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems for their contribution to precipitation. We found TP ecosystems contributed substantially to local and downwind precipitation, with a contribution of 221 mm/year for the TP and neighboring areas through evapotranspiration (ET) (104 mm/year through transpiration), declined to <10 mm/year for eastern China and other surrounding countries. Among ecosystem types, grassland contributed most to precipitation, followed by barren and snow lands, forests, and shrublands. In terms of seasonality, precipitation contribution from TP ecosystems was greater in summer months than in non-summer months for western China, while the opposite was true for eastern China-although the magnitude was much smaller. Over the past two decades, the significant ET increases in TP translated to a widespread increase in precipitation contribution for TP and downwind beneficiary regions from 2000 to 2020. Our study provides a quantitative way to understand the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems through moisture recycling, substantiating their key role to maintain precipitation and the water cycle for downwind regions-effectively acting as an ecological safeguard that could be perceived by the public.

Vegetation Dynamics and Food Security against the Background of Ecological Restoration in Hubei Province, China

A series of ecological restoration projects have been proposed to solve ecological problems resulting from human activities. The project of returning farmlands to forests, initiated in 1999, was the most widely implemented ecological restoration project in China. Large amounts of cropland with steep slopes have been converted to forests or grasslands to promote vegetation restoration, reduce soil erosion, and control nonpoint source pollution. Therefore, identifying the dynamics of vegetation and food security is crucial for further decision making. Based on the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and grain yield data, this study explored the vegetation dynamics and food security of Hubei Province against the background of ecological restoration. The results show that, on a whole, the NDVI significantly increased from 2000 to 2018. The spatial agglomeration of the NDVI decreased between 2000 and 2008 and then increased from 2009 onwards. High-high NDVI agglomerations were more concentrated in mountainous areas. Food security was not threatened, and the grain yield in Hubei Province and most of the cities exhibited significant upward trends, as a whole. The change trend of the grain yield was not stable during the period from 2000 to 2018. The grain yield for Hubei Province and almost all of the cities decreased during the first 5 to 11 years, probably due to the sharp decrease in the sloping cropland areas against the background of ecological restoration. Grain yield was more sensitive and had a longer downward trend in regions with steeper slopes. Increasing trends in grain yield were detected during the last 6 to 10 years for most of the cities, and this can mainly be attributed to the newly added croplands that were created from land with other kinds of land uses, the increase in grain productivity, and strict cropland protection policies. The project of returning farmlands to forests is suggested as a long-term policy from the perspective of ecological restoration, and effective measures should also be continuously taken to maintain grain production and food security.

Biophysical impacts of earth greening can substantially mitigate regional land surface temperature warming

Vegetation change can alter surface energy balance and subsequently affect the local climate. This biophysical impact has been well studied for forestation cases, but the sign and magnitude for persistent earth greening remain controversial. Based on long-term remote sensing observations, we quantify the unidirectional impact of vegetation greening on radiometric surface temperature over 2001-2018. Here, we show a global negative temperature response with large spatial and seasonal variability. Snow cover, vegetation greenness, and shortwave radiation are the major driving factors of the temperature sensitivity by regulating the relative dominance of radiative and non-radiative processes. Combined with the observed greening trend, we find a global cooling of -0.018 K/decade, which slows down 4.6 ± 3.2% of the global warming. Regionally, this cooling effect can offset 39.4 ± 13.9% and 19.0 ± 8.2% of the corresponding warming in India and China. These results highlight the necessity of considering this vegetation-related biophysical climate effect when informing local climate adaptation strategies.

Optimality principles explaining divergent responses of alpine vegetation to environmental change

Recent increases in vegetation greenness over much of the world reflect increasing CO₂ globally and warming in cold areas. However, the strength of the response to both CO₂ and warming in those areas appears to be declining for unclear reasons, contributing to large uncertainties in predicting how vegetation will respond to future global changes. Here, we investigated the changes of satellite-observed peak season absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (F_max ) on the Tibetan Plateau between 1982 and 2016. Although climate trends are similar across the Plateau, we identified robust divergent responses (a greening of 0.31 ± 0.14% year^-1 in drier regions and a browning of 0.12 ± 0.08% year^-1 in wetter regions). Using an eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) concept of plant acclimation/adaptation, we propose a parsimonious modelling framework that quantitatively explains these changes in terms of water and energy limitations. Our model captured the variations in F_max with a correlation coefficient (r) of .76 and a root mean squared error of .12 and predicted the divergent trends of greening (0.32 ± 0.19% year^-1 ) and browning (0.07 ± 0.06% year^-1 ). We also predicted the observed reduced sensitivities of F_max to precipitation and temperature. The model allows us to explain these changes: Enhanced growing season cumulative radiation has opposite effects on water use and energy uptake. Increased precipitation has an overwhelmingly positive effect in drier regions, whereas warming reduces F_max in wetter regions by increasing the cost of building and maintaining leaf area. Rising CO₂ stimulates vegetation growth by enhancing water-use efficiency, but its effect on photosynthesis saturates. The large decrease in the sensitivity of vegetation to climate reflects a shift from water to energy limitation. Our study demonstrates the potential of EEO approaches to reveal the mechanisms underlying recent trends in vegetation greenness and provides further insight into the response of alpine ecosystems to ongoing climate change.

Tropical surface temperature response to vegetation cover changes and the role of drylands

Vegetation cover creates competing effects on land surface temperature: it typically cools through enhancing energy dissipation and warms via decreasing surface albedo. Global vegetation has been previously found to overall net cool land surfaces with cooling contributions from temperate and tropical vegetation and warming contributions from boreal vegetation. Recent studies suggest that dryland vegetation across the tropics strongly contributes to this global net cooling feedback. However, observation-based vegetation-temperature interaction studies have been limited in the tropics, especially in their widespread drylands. Theoretical considerations also call into question the ability of dryland vegetation to strongly cool the surface under low water availability. Here, we use satellite observations to investigate how tropical vegetation cover influences the surface energy balance. We find that while increased vegetation cover would impart net cooling feedbacks across the tropics, net vegetal cooling effects are subdued in drylands. Using observations, we determine that dryland plants have less ability to cool the surface due to their cooling pathways being reduced by aridity, overall less efficient dissipation of turbulent energy, and their tendency to strongly increase solar radiation absorption. As a result, while proportional greening across the tropics would create an overall biophysical cooling feedback, dryland tropical vegetation reduces the overall tropical surface cooling magnitude by at least 14%, instead of enhancing cooling as suggested by previous global studies.

Responses of vegetation to changes in terrestrial water storage and temperature in global mountainous regions

As an important component of terrestrial ecosystem, vegetation acts as a sensitive recorder of changes in hydroclimatic conditions. Long-term time series of remote sensing-based vegetation indices and their influencing environmental driving factors, such as human activities and climate change, have been widely discussed in the literature. Globally, however, little is known about the hydroclimatic processes controlling vegetation changes in mountainous regions, which are conceived as more sensitive to climate change than other landscapes. The present study aims to quantify the respective roles of two dominant hydroclimatic factors, namely, TWS (i.e., terrestrial water storage) and T_air (i.e., temperature), in the spatio-temporal changes of mountainous vegetation over global six contrasting climate zones (i.e., tropical, arid, subtropical, temperate, sub-frigid, and frigid zones) during the period 2003-2016 based on EVI (i.e., enhanced vegetation index), TWS, T_air, and elevation data. Results indicate that the mean EVI shows a larger increasing trend (+0.85 %/decade, p-value < 0.01) and a larger decreasing trend in TWS (-85 mm/decade, p-value < 0.01) across the global mountainous regions than other global regions combined together (+0.61 %/decade, p-value < 0.01), particularly over high latitudes. With the increasing latitudes, the positive effect of temperature more dominates mountainous vegetation growth than moisture, as evidenced by the increasing trends of EVI with warming. However, in certain low-latitude mountainous regions (e.g., East Africa, South Asia, the western Tibetan Plateau, Brazil Plateau, and the southern Rocky Mountains), mountainous vegetation may face degradation due to water deficit induced by increased snowmelt, especially among the high-elevation ecosystems. The water availability controls vegetation activities more than T_air in the mid- and low-latitude regions, including the tropical, arid, and subtropical climate zones. These findings indicate that the potential shifts in mountainous vegetation may occur under the notable interactions with hydroclimatic factors, as the high-latitudes are experiencing ongoing warming and the mid- and low-latitudes are getting dryer.

Climate overrides fencing and soil mineral nutrients to affect plant diversity and biomass of alpine grasslands across North Tibet

INTRODUCTION

Overgrazing and warming are thought to be responsible for the loss of species diversity, declined ecosystem productivity and soil nutrient availability of degraded grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. Mineral elements in soils critically regulate plant individual's growth, performance, reproduction, and survival. However, it is still unclear whether plant species diversity and biomass production can be improved indirectly via the recovery of mineral element availability at topsoils of degraded grasslands, via grazing exclusion by fencing for years.

METHODS

To answer this question, we measured plant species richness, Shannow-Wiener index, aboveground biomass, and mineral element contents of Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Zn, K and P at the top-layer (0 - 10 cm) soils at 15 pairs of fenced vs grazed matched sites from alpine meadows (n = 5), alpine steppes (n = 6), and desert-steppes (n = 4) across North Tibet.

RESULTS

Our results showed that fencing only reduced the Shannon-Wiener index of alpine meadows, and did not alter aboveground biomass, species richness, and soil mineral contents within each grassland type, compared to adjacent open sites grazed by domestic livestock. Aboveground biomass first decreased and then increased along with the gradient of increasing Ca content but did not show any clear relationship with other mineral elements across the three different alpine grassland types. More than 45% of the variance in plant diversity indices and aboveground biomass across North Tibet can be explained by the sum precipitation during plant growing months. Structural equation modelling also confirmed that climatic variables could regulate biomass production directly and indirectly via soil mineral element (Ca) and plant diversity indices.

DISCUSSION

Overall, the community structure and biomass production of alpine grasslands across North Tibet was weakly affected by fencing, compared to the robst climatic control. Therefore, medium-term livestock exclusion by fencing might have limited contribution to the recovery of ecosystem structure and functions of degraded alpine grasslands.

Interannual characteristics and driving mechanism of CO2 fluxes during the growing season in an alpine wetland ecosystem at the southern foot of the Qilian Mountains

The carbon process of the alpine ecosystem is complex and sensitive in the face of continuous global warming. However, the long-term dynamics of carbon budget and its driving mechanism of alpine ecosystem remain unclear. Using the eddy covariance (EC) technique-a fast and direct method of measuring carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes, we analyzed the dynamics of CO₂ fluxes and their driving mechanism in an alpine wetland in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) during the growing season (May-September) from 2004-2016. The results show that the monthly gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) showed a unimodal pattern, and the monthly net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) showed a V-shaped trend. With the alpine wetland ecosystem being a carbon sink during the growing season, that is, a reservoir that absorbs more atmospheric carbon than it releases, the annual NEE, GPP, and Re reached -67.5 ± 10.2, 473.4 ± 19.1, and 405.9 ± 8.9 gCm^-2, respectively. At the monthly scale, the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis revealed air temperature (Ta) to be the main determinant of variations in the monthly NEE and GPP. Soil temperature (Ts) largely determined the changes in the monthly Re. The linear regression analysis confirmed that thermal conditions (Ta, Ts) were crucial determinants of the dynamics of monthly CO₂ fluxes during the growing season. At the interannual scale, the variations of CO₂ fluxes were affected mainly by precipitation and thermal conditions. The annual GPP and Re were positively correlated with Ta and Ts, and were negatively correlated with precipitation. However, hydrothermal conditions (Ta, Ts, and precipitation) had no significant effect on annual NEE. Our results indicated that climate warming would be beneficial to the improvement of GPP and Re in the alpine wetland, while the increase of precipitation can weaken this effect.

Spatiotemporal Variation in Actual Evapotranspiration and the Influencing Factors in Ningxia from 2001 to 2020

Surface evapotranspiration (ET) is an important part of the hydrological cycle. Based on the MOD16 ET product and the data collected by meteorological stations, this study investigated, for the first time, the characteristics, variation trend and influencing factors of actual ET in Ningxia from 2001 to 2020 along temporal and spatial scales using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Hurst index, and predicted the future trend of ET. The results revealed a strong correlation between the MOD16 ET product and ET data collected at meteorological stations (r = 0.837, R² = 0.701). Over the past 20 years, the annual ET in Ningxia showed an overall increasing trend, and the proportion of the increasing area was 96.58%. Quarterly ET varied over time, with the highest value in the third quarter and the lowest value in the second quarter. Annual ET showed a positive correlation with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface temperature and precipitation but no correlation with relative humidity. Additionally, the Hurst index revealed areas showing a persistent increase in ET, accounting for 84.91% of the total area, indicating that the future trend of ET in Ningxia is consistent with the past trend.

Grassland greening impacts on global land surface temperature

Grassland vegetation greenness has been increasing globally during the past decades. Although the vegetation coverage change could have significant effects on climate by affecting albedo and evapotranspiration (ET), the effects of global grassland greening on climate remain unclear due to the lack of long-term field observation data. Here, we used satellite measurements of land surface temperature (LST) from high coverage grassland and adjacent low coverage grassland (divided according to the leaf area index) to quantify, for the first time, the biogeophysical effects of global grassland greening on surface temperatures. Results showed that grassland greening decreased the annual mean LST and daytime LST (LSTD), but did not significantly change nighttime LST (LSTN) globally from 2003 to 2017. Spatially, grassland greening had significant cooling effects on the annual mean LST and LSTD for latitudes south of 50°N due to the cooling effect of increased ET, whereas warming affects on the annual mean LST and LSTD in the high northern latitudes (> 50°N) because of the warming effects of decreased albedo. This study revealed that the effects of grassland greening on surface temperatures changed with latitude. During June, July, and August (JJA), the increasing grassland vegetation coverage decreased the LST between 25°S and 50°N, but increased the mean LST in high northern latitudes. By contrast, grassland greening has no significant effect on the mean LST in the temperate southern hemisphere (> 25°S) during JJA due to cooling and warming effects on LSTD and LSTN, respectively. During December, January, and February, grassland greening decreased the mean LST and LSTD for latitudes south of 25°N, but increased the mean LST and LSTN for latitudes north of 25°N. This study highlights the importance of including grassland vegetation coverage in models of regional surface temperature dynamics and future climate forecast.

Assessment of climate change effects on vegetation and river hydrology in a semi-arid river basin

Climate change plays a key role in changing vegetation productivity dynamics, which ultimately affect the hydrological cycle of a watershed through evapotranspiration (ET). Trends and correlation analysis were conducted to investigate vegetation responses across the whole Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) in the northeast of Pakistan using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate variables, and river flow data at inter-annual/monthly scales between 1982 and 2015. The spatial variability in trends calculated with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test on NDVI and climate data was assessed considering five dominant land use/cover types. The inter-annual NDVI in four out of five vegetation types showed a consistent increase over the 34-year study period; the exception was for herbaceous vegetation (HV), which increased until the end of the 1990s and then decreased slightly in subsequent years. In spring, significant (p<0.05) increasing trends were found in the NDVI of all vegetation types. Minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significant increase during spring, while maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased significantly during summer. Average annual increase in Tmin (1.54°C) was much higher than Tmax (0.37°C) over 34 years in the UJRB. Hence, Tmin appears to have an enhancing effect on vegetation productivity over the UJRB. A significant increase in NDVI, Tmin and Tmax during spring may have contributed to reductions in spring river flow by enhancing evapotranspiration observed in the watershed of UJRB. These findings provide valuable information to improve our knowledge and understanding about the interlinkages between vegetation, climate and river flow at a watershed scale.

A Global 250-m Downscaled NDVI Product from 1982 to 2018

Satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data are useful for monitoring the changes in vegetation ecosystems in the context of global climate change. However, most of the current NDVI products cannot effectively reconcile high spatial resolution and continuous observations in time. Here, to produce a global-scale, long-term, and high-resolution NDVI database, we developed a simple and new data downscaling approach. The downscaling algorithm considers the pixel-wise ratios of the coefficient of variation (CV) between the coarse- and fine-resolution NDVI data and relative changes in the NDVI against a baseline period. The algorithm successfully created a worldwide monthly NDVI database with 250 m resolution from 1982 to 2018 by translating the fine spatial information from MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and the long-term temporal information from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data. We employed the evaluation indices of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (Pearson’s R) to assess the accuracy of the downscaled data against the MODIS NDVI. Both the RMSE and MAE values at the regional and global scales are typically between 0 and 0.2, whereas the Pearson’s R values are mostly above 0.7, which implies that the downscaled NDVI product is similar to the MODIS NDVI product. We then used the downscaled data to monitor the NDVI changes in different plant types and places with significant vegetation heterogeneity, as well as to investigate global vegetation trends over the last four decades. The Google Earth Engine platform was used for all the data downscaling processes, and here we provide a code for users to easily acquire data corresponding to any part of the world. The downscaled global-scale NDVI time series has high potential for the monitoring of the long-term temporal and spatial dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems under changing environments.

Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Vegetation Dynamics and Their Responses to Climate Change along the Ya’an–Linzhi Section of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway

Vegetation dynamics and their responses to climate change are of significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The Sichuan–Tibet Railway (STR) is a major construction project of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China that is of great significance to promoting the social and economic development of Sichuan–Tibet areas. The planned railway line crosses areas with a complex geological condition and fragile ecological environment, where the regional vegetation dynamics are sensitive to climate change, topographic conditions and human activities. So, analyzing the vegetation variations in the complex vertical ecosystem and exploring their responses to hydrothermal factors are critical for providing technical support for the ecological program’s implementation along the route of the planned railway line. Based on MOD13Q1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the growing season (May to October) during 2001–2020, a Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Hurst exponent analysis and partial correlation analysis were used to detect the vegetation dynamics, predict the vegetation sustainability, examine the relationship between vegetation change and hydrothermal factors, regionalize the driving forces for vegetation growth and explore the interannual variation pattern of driving factors. The growing season NDVI along the Ya’an–Linzhi section of the STR showed a marked rate of increase (0.0009/year) during the past 20 years, and the vegetation’s slight improvement areas accounted for the largest proportion (47.53%). Among the three hydrothermal parameters (temperature, precipitation and radiation), the correlation between vegetation growth and the temperature was the most significant, and the vegetation response to precipitation was the most immediate. The vegetation changes were affected by the combined impact of climatic and non-climatic factors, and the proportion of hydrothermal factors’ combined driving force slightly increased during the study period. Based on the Hurst exponent, the future vegetation sustainability of the area along the Ya’an–Linzhi section of the STR faces a risk of degradation, and more effective conservations should be implemented during the railway construction period to protect the regional ecological environment.

Increasing Impact of Precipitation on Alpine-Grassland Productivity over Last Two Decades on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the importance of temperature and precipitation on plant productivity is beneficial, to reveal the potential impact of climate change on vegetation growth. Although some studies have quantified the response of vegetation productivity to climate change at local, regional, and global scales, changes in climatic constraints on vegetation productivity over time are not well understood. This study combines the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the net primary production (NPP) modeled by CASA during the plant-growing season, to quantify the interplay of climatic (growing-season temperature and precipitation, GST and GSP) constraints on alpine-grassland productivity on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the temporal dynamics of these constraints. The results showed that (1) 42.2% and 36.3% of grassland NDVI and NPP on the Tibetan Plateau increased significantly from 2000 to 2019. GSP controlled grassland growth in dryland regions, while humid grasslands were controlled by the GST. (2) The response strength of the NDVI and NPP to precipitation (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GSP and RNPP-GSP) increased substantially between 2000 and 2019. Especially, the RNDVI-GSP and RNPP-GSP increased from 0.14 and 0.01 in the first 10year period (2000–2009) to 0.83 and 0.78 in the second 10-year period (2010–2019), respectively. As a result, the controlling factor for alpine-grassland productivity variations shifted from temperature during 2000–2009 to precipitation during 2010–2019. (3) The increase in precipitation constraints was mainly distributed in dryland regions of the plateau. This study highlights that the climatic constraints on alpine-grassland productivity might change under ongoing climate change, which helps the understanding of the ecological responses and helps predict how vegetation productivity changes in the future.

NDVI-Based Greening of Alpine Steppe and Its Relationships with Climatic Change and Grazing Intensity in the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

Alpine vegetation on the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human activities. Climate warming and human actions (mainly ecological restoration, social-economic development, and grazing) have already caused the degradation of alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to some extent. However, it remains unclear how human activities (mainly grazing) have regulated vegetation variation under climate change and ecological restoration since 2000. This study used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and social statistic data to explore the spatiotemporal changes and the relationship between the NDVI and climatic change, human activities, and grazing intensity. The results revealed that the NDVI increased by 0.006/10a from 2000 to 2020. Significant greening, mainly distributed in Rikaze, with partial browning, has been found in the SWTP. The correlation analysis results showed that precipitation is the most critical factor affecting the spatial distribution of NDVI, and the NDVI is correlated positively with temperature and precipitation in most parts of the SWTP. We found that climate change and human activities co-affected the vegetation change in the SWTP, and human activities leading to vegetation greening since 2000. The NDVI and grazing intensity were mainly negatively correlated, and the grazing caused vegetation degradation to some extent. This study provides practical support for grassland use, grazing management, ecological restoration, and regional sustainable development for the TP and similar alpine areas.

Divergent Climate Sensitivities of the Alpine Grasslands to Early Growing Season Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau

Warming is expected to intensify hydrological processes and reshape precipitation regimes, which is closely related to water availability for terrestrial ecosystems. Effects of the inter-annual precipitation changes on plant growth are widely concerned. However, it is not well-known how plant growth responds to intra-annual precipitation regime changes. Here, we compiled reanalysis climate data (ERA5) and four satellite-based vegetation indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and the Modified Triangular Vegetation Index (MTVI2), to evaluate the response of alpine grasslands (including alpine meadow and alpine steppe) to the change of precipitation regimes, especially to the intra-annual precipitation regimes on the Tibetan Plateau. We found monthly precipitation over the alpine steppe significantly increased in the growing season (May–September), but precipitation over the alpine meadow significantly increased only in the early growing season (May–June) (MJP) during the past four decades (1979–2019). The inter-annual plant growth (vegetation indices changes) on the alpine meadow was dominated by temperature, but it was driven by precipitation for the alpine steppe. On the intra-annual scale, the temperature sensitivity of the vegetation indices generally decreased but precipitation sensitivity increased during the growing season for both the alpine meadow and steppe. In response to the increase in MJP, we found the temperature sensitivity of the vegetation indices during the mid-growing season (July–August) (MGNDVI, MGEVI, MGSIF, and MGMTVI2) in the alpine meadow significantly increased (p < 0.01) while its precipitation sensitivity significantly decreased (p < 0.01). We infer that more MJP over the meadow may be the result of enhanced evapotranspiration, which is at the expense of soil moisture and even induces soil “drought” in the early growing season. This may be to elevate community water acquisition capacity through altering root mass allocation and community composition, consequently regulating the divergent climate sensitivities of vegetation growth in the mid-growing season. Our findings highlight that it is inadequate to regard precipitation as an indicator of water availability conditions for plant growth, which may limit our understanding of the response and acclimatization of plants to climate change.

Characteristics of Greening along Altitudinal Gradients on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Time-Series Landsat Images

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is ecologically fragile and is especially sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have shown that the vegetation on the QTP is undergoing overall greening with variations along altitudinal gradients. However, the mechanisms that cause the differences in the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation greening among different types of terrain and vegetation have not received sufficient attention. Therefore, in this study, we used a Landsat NDVI time-series for the period 1992–2020 and climate data to observe the effects of terrain and vegetation types on the spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation greening on the QTP and to analyze the factors driving this greening using the geographical detector and the velocity of the vertical movement of vegetation greenness isolines. The results showed the following: (1) The vertical movement of the vegetation greenness isolines was affected by the temperature and precipitation at all elevations. The precipitation had a more substantial effect than the temperature below 3000 m. In contrast, above 3000 m, the temperature had a greater effect than the precipitation. (2) The velocity of the vertical movement of the vegetation greenness isolines of woody plants was higher than that of herbaceous plants. (3) The influence of slope on the vertical movement of vegetation greenness isolines was more significant than that of the aspect. The results of this study provided details of the spatiotemporal differences in vegetation greening between different types of terrain and vegetation at a 30-m scale as well as of the underlying factors driving this greening. These results will help to support ecological protection policies on the QTP.

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon

Understanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)—despite higher insolation—than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

Addressing and anticipating future South Asian monsoon changes under continuing global warming is of critical importance for the food security and socioeconomic well-being of one-quarter of the world’s population. However, climate model projections show discrepancies in future monsoon variability in South Asian monsoon domains, largely due to our still limited understanding of the monsoon response to warm climate change scenarios. Particularly, climate models are largely based on the assumption that higher solar insolation causes higher rainfall during similar warm climatic regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data for different interglacial periods. Here, we compare Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability during the Last Interglacial and Holocene using a sedimentary leaf wax δD and δ¹³C record from the northern Bay of Bengal, representing the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (G-B-M) river catchment. In combination with a seawater salinity record, our results show that ISM intensity broadly follows summer insolation on orbital scales, but ISM intensity during the Last Interglacial was lower than during the Holocene despite higher summer insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that sustained warmer sea surface temperature in the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial increased convective rainfall above the ocean but dampened ISM intensity on land. Our study demonstrates that besides solar insolation, internal climatic feedbacks also play an important role for South Asian monsoon variability during warm climate states. This work can help to improve future climate model projections and highlights the importance of understanding controls of monsoonal rainfall under interglacial boundary conditions.

Variation of High and Low Nucleic Acid-Content Bacteria in Tibetan Ice Cores and Their Relationship to Black Carbon

Nutrient enrichment caused by black carbon (BC) is a major ecological crisis in glacial ecosystems. The microbiological effects of BC were assessed in this study by using fluorescent fingerprinting assay based on flow cytometry (FCM) of bacterial communities with low (LNA) and high (HNA) nucleic acid-content bacteria. Here, we investigated a high-resolution temporal variation of bacterial abundance and LNA/HNA ratio in Tibetan ice cores. Our results revealed that bacterial abundance was proportional to the atmospheric BC on the glaciers. The shift of LNA functional groups to HNA functional groups in glaciers suggested BC emissions increased the proportion of highly active cells. In addition, distinct number of LNA and HNA functional groups was identified between the monsoon and non-monsoon seasons. Westerly winds with high amounts of BC accounted for high ratio of HNA functional groups during the non-monsoon season. In comparison, high moisture during the monsoon season decreased atmospheric BC loading, which increases the ratio of LNA functional groups. Correlations between BC and functional groups were very strong, showing that two functional groups may serve as early-warning indicators of microbiological effects of BC at low trophic level. Our approach provides a potential early-warning framework to study the influences of atmospheric BC on the glaciological community.

Temporal and Spatial Differences and Driving Factors of Evapotranspiration from Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Qinghai Province in the Past 20 Years

As the “Asian Water Tower”, understanding the hydrological cycles in Qinghai Province and its interior is critical to the security of terrestrial ecosystems. Based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)16 evapotranspiration (ET) remote sensing data, we used least squares regression, correlation analysis, and t-test to determine the temporal and spatial changes and trends of ET in Qinghai Province and its five ecological functional regions, located on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (Plateau) Western China from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we discussed the main factors affecting the changes of ET in different regions of Qinghai Province over the first two decades of the 21st century along spatial as well as altitudinal gradients. The results showed that: (1) the average annual ET in Qinghai Province was 496.56 mm/a, the highest ET value appeared in the southeast of the study area (684.08 mm/a), and the lowest ET value appeared in the Qaidam region in the northwest (110.49 mm/a); (2) the annual ET showed an increasing trend with a rate of 3.71 mm/a (p < 0.01), the place where ET decreased most was in the Three-River Source region (−8–0 mm/a) in the southwest of the study area, and the ET increased the most in the Hehuang region in the east of the study area (9–34 mm/a); (3) temperature (T) was the dominant ET change factor in Qinghai Province, accounting for about 65.27% of the region, followed by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation (P) for 62.52% and 55.41%, respectively; and (4) ET increased significantly by 2.84 mm/100 m with increasing altitude. The dominant factors changed from P to NDVI and T as the altitude increased. The research is of practical value for gaining insight into the regional water cycle process on the Plateau under climate change.

The response of net primary productivity to climate change and its impact on hydrology in a water-limited agricultural basin

Climate change has remarkably altered growing-season vegetation growth, but the impacts of vegetation variability on the regional hydrological cycle remain poorly understood. Exploring the relationships between climate change, vegetation dynamics, and hydrologic factors would contribute to the sustainable management of ecosystems. Here, we investigated the response of vegetation dynamics to climate change and its impact on hydrologic factors in a traditional agricultural basin with limited water resources in China, Nansi Lake Basin (NLB). To this end, CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model were applied to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil water in the growing season (April-October) from 2000 to 2016. Results showed that the mean growing-season NPP (NPP_GS) exhibited an ascending trend at a rate of 2.93 g C/m²/year during the 17-year period. The intra-annual variation of NPP_GS displayed two peaks in May and July, respectively. The first peak in May was accompanied by relative deficits in soil water, which might inhibit vegetation productivity. Precipitation was the principal climatic factor controlling NPP_GS dynamics in the water-limited NLB. The positive influence of temperature on NPP_GS was relatively weak, and even future warming could negatively affect ecosystem productivity in the south-central regions of the NLB. Furthermore, a strongly positive relationship between NPP_GS and ET was detected, suggesting that increasing NPP in the future might stimulate the rise in ET and then exacerbate drought at the watershed scale. This study provides an integrated model for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between vegetation, climate, and hydrological cycle, and highlights the importance of water-saving agriculture for future food security.

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Greening and Human Well-Being Improving: The Role of Ecological Policies

Appropriate human activities can have significantly positive effects on vegetation dynamics. In the past 50 years, various ecological policies have improved both ecological change and human well-being in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), efficiently achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. During 1981–2017, the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of the protected areas (PAs) tended to increase significantly at a rate of 2.93 × 10−4/a (p < 0.01), while non-PAs only increased by 0.6 × 10−4/a (p < 0.5). Improvement in the NDVI of the PAs is more obvious than that of non-PAs. Specifically, the earlier the establishment of the Pas is, the more significant the greening effect will be. Moreover, ecological protection has not slowed improvements in human welfare; on the contrary, the Human Development Index (HDI) has nearly doubled in the past 40 years. In terms of global ecological construction, the Chinese government has demonstrated the responsibilities of a large country in global ecological governance. Chinese initiatives can guide other nations in contributing to the global sustainability aspirations embodied in the 2030 SDGs Agenda. This study can be used as a reference for other countries in the world to coordinate the development of ecological protection and well-being.

Complex effects of moisture conditions and temperature enhanced vegetation growth in the Arid/humid transition zone in Northern China

Ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) of northern China are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. Accurately assessing the impact of climate change on these ecosystems is important for effectively reducing the risks faced by them under future climate change. In this study, the leaf area index during the selected growing season (LAI_GS) was used as an indicator for vegetation activity. After comparison different potential indicators, the growing season temperature (T_GS) was used to indicate temperature, and the growing season aridity index (AI_GS), which considers the regional water budget, was used to indicate moisture rather than precipitation, which is used more commonly. Correlation analysis and residual trends were used to study the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on vegetation activity in the AHTZ from 1982 to 2016. The results for regions where LAI_GS increased significantly (0.037/10 yr, 53.58% of the study area), the regions where LAI_GS dominated by non-climatic factors (18.40%) was larger than areas dominated by climatic factors (9.61%). However, most (25.57%) of the regions in the selected study area were mainly driven by both climatic and non-climatic factors. In about half (49.73%) of the climate-affected regions, significant changes in LAI_GS were driven jointly by T_GS and AI_GS. These regions were mainly in the northern and western Loess Plateau. The regions where changes were driven mainly by AI_GS, and those where changes were driven mainly by T_GS, each accounted for nearly a quarter of climate-affected regions (24.87% and 25.40%, respectively). The former regions were on the western Songliao Plain, the northern North China Plain, and the northern Loess Plateau, and the latter regions were in the northern Greater Khingan Mountains, on the southern North China Plain, in the western mountains of North China, and on the southern Loess Plateau.

Spatiotemporal variations of land surface albedo and associated influencing factors on the Tibetan Plateau

Land surface albedo plays a crucial role in the land surface energy budget and climate. This paper identified the spatiotemporal variations of surface albedo on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1982 to 2015, and quantified the relationships between the spatial and temporal patterns of the albedo and associated influencing factors (snow cover, vegetation, and soil moisture) on the seasonal and interannual basis using satellite products and reanalysis data. It was determined that the albedo presented a distinct spatial variability, with high values in mountainous areas and low values on the southeastern TP. Spatially, average albedo exhibited a positive correlation with snow cover and negative correlations with vegetation and soil moisture. Average albedo over the whole TP had a clear seasonal cycle with a peak in winter and a minimum value in summer, which is dictated by seasonal changes in snow and vegetation covers. Annual average albedo exhibited a weakly downward trend, which was mainly contributed by a significant decrease in summer, pointing to the important role in vegetation dynamics for temporal change of the albedo. On the regional basis, interannual variation of albedo was more responsive to snow cover over the snow- and vegetation-coexisting area than the snow-covered area, and to changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the vegetation-covered area than the snow- and vegetation-coexisting area; albedo had a weakly negative correlation with soil moisture over bare soil. Furthermore, our results indicated that snow cover was the dominant factor for albedo change on mountainous areas, and vegetation change predominated the variation of albedo on the eastern, southern, and northwestern TP. Specifically, variations in snow cover contributed more than those of vegetation to the interannual albedo variation over the Three Rivers Headwater Region. These results would be beneficial for better understanding the climate and eco-environment changes over the TP.

Snow cover persistence reverses the altitudinal patterns of warming above and below 5000 m on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a global warming hotspot, however, the warming status at high elevation (>5000 m) is poorly understood due to very sparse observations. Here we analyze spatial patterns in TP warming rates based on a novel near-surface air temperature dataset of 1980-2014 recently developed by ingesting high-elevation observations and downscaled reanalysis datasets. We show that the high snow cover persistence at high elevation reduces strengthening of positive feedbacks responsible for elevation dependent warming at low-middle elevations, leading to reversed altitudinal patterns of TP warming above and below 5000 m. An important negative feedback is induced by the presence of snow and glaciers at elevations above 5000 m, due to their "buffering" effects by consuming or reflecting energy that would be used for warming in the absence of snow or ice. A further decrease in snow cover and glacier extent at high elevations may thus amplify the warming on the TP.