Determinants of geographic range size in plants

Effective dispersal patterns in prairie plant species across human-modified landscapes

Effective dispersal among plant populations is dependent on vector behaviour, landscape features and availability of adequate habitats. To capture landscape feature effects on dispersal, studies must be conducted at scales reflecting single-generation dispersal events (mesoscale). Many studies are conducted at large scales where genetic differentiation is due to dispersal occurring over multiple generations, making it difficult to interpret the effects of specific landscape features on vector behaviour. Genetic structure at the mesoscale may be determined by ecological and evolutionary processes, such as the consequences of vector behaviour on patterns of gene flow. We used chloroplast haplotypes and nuclear genome SNP surveys to identify landscape features influencing seed and pollen dispersal at a mesoscale within the Rogue River Valley in southern Oregon. We evaluated biotic and abiotic vector behaviour by contrasting two annual species with differing dispersal mechanisms; Achyrachaena mollis (Asteraceae) is a self-pollinating and anemochoric species, and Plectritis congesta (Caprifoliaceae) is biotically pollinated with barochoric seeds. Using landscape genetics methods, we identified features of the study region that conduct or restrict dispersal. We found chloroplast haplotypes were indicative of historic patterns of gene flow prior to human modification of landscapes. Seed dispersal of A. mollis was best supported by models of isolation by distance, while seed-driven gene flow of P. congesta was determined by the distribution of preserved natural spaces and quality habitat. Nuclear genetic structure was driven by both pollen and seed dispersal, and both species responded to contemporary landscape changes, such as urban and agricultural conversion, and habitat availability.

The global distribution of angiosperm genome size is shaped by climate

Angiosperms, which inhabit diverse environments across all continents, exhibit significant variation in genome sizes, making them an excellent model system for examining hypotheses about the global distribution of genome size. These include the previously proposed large genome constraint, mutational hazard, polyploidy-mediated, and climate-mediated hypotheses. We compiled the largest genome size dataset to date, encompassing 16 017 (> 5% of known) angiosperm species, and analyzed genome size distribution using a comprehensive geographic distribution dataset for all angiosperms. We observed that angiosperms with large range sizes generally had small genomes, supporting the large genome constraint hypothesis. Climate was shown to exert a strong influence on genome size distribution along the global latitudinal gradient, while the frequency of polyploidy and the type of growth form had negligible effects. In contrast to the unimodal patterns along the global latitudinal gradient shown by plant size traits and polyploid proportions, the increase in angiosperm genome size from the equator to 40-50°N/S is probably mediated by different (mostly climatic) mechanisms than the decrease in genome sizes observed from 40 to 50°N northward. Our analysis suggests that the global distribution of genome sizes in angiosperms is mainly shaped by climatically mediated purifying selection, genetic drift, relaxed selection, and environmental filtering.

The relationship between niche breadth and phylogenetic characteristics of eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Asia

The relationship between spatial distribution and phylogeny has been widely debated in recent decades. To understand biogeographic and evolutionary history relationships and to explore the interspecific similarities and phylogenetic correlations of niche characteristics, we collected and recorded all distribution points for eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, used different methods to describe the ecological niche, and explored the relationship between phylogeny, ecological niche, and distribution range. The results reveal that: (1) the ranges of optimal environmental variables for species with close kinship are not exactly the same, ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species, and the overlap of rhubarb has no significant correlation with phylogeny. Therefore, the impact of ecological dimensions on species formation is greater than that of geographical latitude for the eight species of rhubarb. (2) Among the eight species of rhubarb, the breadth of ecological niche is positively correlated with the current suitable habitat area and negatively correlated with fluctuations in future suitable habitat area. In the future, except for Rheum tanguticum and Rheum palmatum, the suitable planting areas for the other six species of rhubarb will decrease as greenhouse gas emissions concentrations and time increase. Therefore, species with smaller ecological niches are at a greater risk of habitat loss compared to species with larger ecological niches. (3) In both existing and future distribution prediction models of rhubarb, we observed that both the widely distributed Rheum spiciforme and the niche narrow Rheum nobile, all eight species of rhubarb are present in the Hengduan Mountains, based on our analysis, we propose that the Hengduan Mountains should be regarded as a priority conservation area for rhubarb, to preserve the species' biodiversity. Our study lays the groundwork for identifying evolutionary trends in ecological specialization.

Assessing the invasive potential of different source populations of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) through genomically informed species distribution modelling

The genetic composition of founding populations is likely to play a key role in determining invasion success. Individual genotypes may differ in habitat preference and environmental tolerance, so their ability to colonize novel environments can be highly variable. Despite the importance of genetic variation on invasion success, its influence on the potential distribution of invaders is rarely investigated. Here, we integrate population genomics and ecological niche models (ENMs) into a single framework to predict the distribution of globally invasive common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Australia. We identified three genetic clusters for ragweed and used these to construct cluster-specific ENMs and characterize within-species niche differentiation. The potential range of ragweed in Australia depended on the genetic composition and continent of origin of the introduced population. Invaders originating from warmer, wetter climates had a broader potential distribution than those from cooler, drier ones. By quantifying this change, we identified source populations most likely to expand the ragweed distribution. As prevention remains the most effective method of invasive species management, our work provides a valuable way of ranking the threat posed by different populations to better inform management decisions.

Diurnal temperature range as a key predictor of plants' elevation ranges globally

A prominent hypothesis in ecology is that larger species ranges are found in more variable climates because species develop broader environmental tolerances, predicting a positive range size-temperature variability relationship. However, this overlooks the extreme temperatures that variable climates impose on species, with upper or lower thermal limits more likely to be exceeded. Accordingly, we propose the 'temperature range squeeze' hypothesis, predicting a negative range size-temperature variability relationship. We test these contrasting predictions by relating 88,000 elevation range sizes of vascular plants in 44 mountains to short- and long-term temperature variation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that species' range size is negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range. Accurate predictions of short-term temperature variation will become increasingly important for extinction risk assessment in the future.

Global biodiversity data suggest allopolyploid plants do not occupy larger ranges or harsher conditions compared with their progenitors

Understanding the factors determining species' geographical and environmental range is a central question in evolution and ecology, and key for developing conservation and management practices. Shortly after the discovery of polyploidy, just over 100 years ago, it was suggested that polyploids generally have greater range sizes and occur in more extreme conditions than their diploid congeners. This suggestion is now widely accepted in the literature and is attributed to polyploids having an increased capacity for genetic diversity that increases their potential for adaptation and invasiveness. However, the data supporting this idea are mixed. Here, we compare the niche of allopolyploid plants to their progenitor species to determine whether allopolyploidization is associated with increased geographic range or extreme environmental tolerance. Our analysis includes 123 allopolyploid species that exist as only one known ploidy level, with at least one known progenitor species, and at least 50 records in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. We used GBIF occurrence data and range modeling tools to quantify the geographic and environmental distribution of these allopolyploids relative to their progenitors. We find no indication that allopolyploid plants occupy more extreme conditions or larger geographic ranges than their progenitors. Data evaluated here generally indicate no significant difference in range between allopolyploids and progenitors, and where significant differences do occur, the progenitors are more likely to exist in extreme conditions. We concluded that the evidence from these data indicate allopolyploidization does not result in larger or more extreme ranges. Thus, allopolyploidization does not have a consistent effect on species distribution, and we conclude it is more likely the content of an allopolyploid's genome rather than polyploidy per se that determines the potential for invasiveness.

Climatic stability and geological history shape global centers of neo- and paleoendemism in seed plants

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world's highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness-key information for setting global conservation priorities.

The evolution of ecological specialization underlies plant endemism in the Atlantic Forest

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The evolution of ecological specialization is favoured under divergent selection imposed by increased environmental heterogeneity, although specialization can limit the geographical range of organisms, thus promoting endemism. The Atlantic Forest (AF) is an ancient montane domain with high plant endemism, containing different environments for plant specialization. Miconia is the most diverse genus of woody flowering plant within the AF domain, including AF-endemic and non-endemic lineages. We hypothesized that Miconia species have faced increased environmental heterogeneity and consequently have been selected towards increased specialization in the AF domain, and this increased specialization has greatly reduced species geographical ranges, ultimately promoting endemism. Hence, we made the following predictions: (1) AF-endemic species should face greater environmental heterogeneity than non-endemic species; (2) AF-endemic species should be more specialized than non-endemic species; (3) specialization should lead to smaller geographical ranges; (4) specialization and small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species should conform to a selection-driven evolutionary scenario rather than to a neutral evolutionary scenario; and (5) small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species should date back to the occupation of the AF domain rather than to more recent time periods.

METHODS

We used geographical, environmental and phylogenetic data on a major Miconia clade including AF-endemic and non-endemic species. We calculated Rao's Q to estimate the environmental heterogeneity faced by species. We used georeferenced occurrences to estimate the geographical ranges of species. We applied environmental niche modelling to infer species niche breadth. We inferred the most likely evolutionary scenario for species geographical range and niche breadth via a model-fitting approach. We used ancestral reconstructions to evaluate species geographical range throughout time.

KEY RESULTS

Atlantic Forest-endemic species faced 33-60 % more environmental heterogeneity, with the increase being associated with montane landscapes in the AF. The AF-endemic species were 60 % more specialized overall, specifically over highly variable environmental gradients in AF montane landscapes. Specialization strongly predicted small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species and was a major range-limiting factor among endemic lineages. The AF-endemic species have evolved towards specialization and small geographical ranges under a selection-driven regime, probably imposed by the great environmental heterogeneity in AF montane landscapes. The AF-endemic species underwent a major reduction of geographical range immediately after their evolution, indicating a long-standing effect of selective pressures in the AF domain.

CONCLUSION

Environmental heterogeneity imposes selective pressures favouring ecological specialization and small geographical ranges among plant lineages in the AF domain. This selection-driven process has probably promoted plant endemism in the AF domain throughout its history.

Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs - Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach

Aim

Our knowledge of Pleistocene refugia and post-glacial recolonization routes of forest understorey plants is still very limited. The geographical ranges of these species are often rather narrow and show highly idiosyncratic, often fragmented patterns indicating either narrow and species-specific ecological tolerances or strong dispersal limitations. However, the relative roles of these factors are inherently difficult to disentangle.

Location

Central and south-eastern Europe.

Time period

17,100 BP - present.

Major taxa studied

Five understorey herbs of European beech forests: Aposeris foetida, Cardamine trifolia, Euphorbia carniolica, Hacquetia epipactis and Helleborus niger.

Methods

We used spatio-temporally explicit modelling to reconstruct the post-glacial range dynamics of the five forest understorey herbs. We varied niche requirements, demographic rates and dispersal abilities across plausible ranges and simulated the spread of species from potential Pleistocene refugia identified by phylogeographical analyses. Then we identified the parameter settings allowing for the most accurate reconstruction of their current geographical ranges.

Results

We found a largely homogenous pattern of optimal parameter settings among species. Broad ecological niches had to be combined with very low but non-zero rates of long-distance dispersal via chance events and low rates of seed dispersal over moderate distances by standard dispersal vectors. However, long-distance dispersal events, although rare, led to high variation among replicated simulation runs.

Main conclusions

Small and fragmented ranges of many forest understorey species are best explained by a combination of broad ecological niches and rare medium- and long-distance dispersal events. Stochasticity is thus an important determinant of current species ranges, explaining the idiosyncratic distribution patterns of the study species despite strong similarities in refugia, ecological tolerances and dispersal abilities.

How does spatial extent and environmental limits affect the accuracy of species richness estimates from ecological niche models? A case study with North American Pinaceae and Cactaceae

Measuring species richness at varying spatial extents can be challenging, especially at large extents where exhaustive species surveys are difficult or impossible. Our work aimed at determining the reliability of species richness estimates from stacked ecological niche models at different spatial extents for taxonomic groups with vastly different environmental dependencies and interactions. To accomplish this, we generated ecological niche models for the species of Cactaceae and Pinaceae that occur within 180 published floras from North America north of Mexico. We overlaid or stacked the resulting species' potential distribution estimates over the bounding boxes representing each of the 180 floras to generate predictions of species richness. In general, our stacked models of Cactaceae and Pinaceae were poor predictors of species richness. The relationships between observed and predicted values improved noticeably with the size of spatial extents. However, the stacked models tended to overpredict the richness of Cactaceae and over- and underpredict the richness of Pinaceae. Cactaceae stacked models showed higher sensitivity and lower specificity than those for Pinaceae. We conclude that stacked ecological niche models may be somewhat poor predictors of species richness at smaller spatial extents and should be used with caution for this purpose. Perhaps more importantly, abilities to compensate for their limitations or apply corrections to their reliability may vary with taxonomic groups.

Regional occupancy increases for widespread species but decreases for narrowly distributed species in metacommunity time series

While human activities are known to elicit rapid turnover in species composition through time, the properties of the species that increase or decrease their spatial occupancy underlying this turnover are less clear. Here, we used an extensive dataset of 238 metacommunity time series of multiple taxa spread across the globe to evaluate whether species that are more widespread (large-ranged species) differed in how they changed their site occupancy over the 10-90 years the metacommunities were monitored relative to species that are more narrowly distributed (small-ranged species). We found that on average, large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy through time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease. These relationships were stronger in marine than in terrestrial and freshwater realms. However, in terrestrial regions, the directional changes in occupancy were less extreme in protected areas. Our findings provide evidence for systematic decreases in occupancy of small-ranged species, and that habitat protection could mitigate these losses in the face of environmental change.

Nonsymbiotic legumes are more invasive, but only if polyploid

Both mutualism and polyploidy are thought to influence invasion success in plants, but few studies have tested their joint effects. Mutualism can limit range expansion when plants cannot find a compatible partner in a novel habitat, or facilitate range expansion when mutualism increases a plant's niche breadth. Polyploids are also expected to have greater niche breadth because of greater self-compatibility and phenotypic plasticity, increasing invasion success. For 847 legume species, we compiled data from published sources to estimate ploidy, symbiotic status with rhizobia, specificity on rhizobia, and the number of introduced ranges. We found that diploid species have had limited spread around the globe regardless of whether they are symbiotic or how many rhizobia partners they can host. Polyploids, by contrast, have been successfully introduced to many new ranges, but interactions with rhizobia constrain their range expansion. In a hidden state model of trait evolution, we also found evidence of a high rate of re-diploidization in symbiotic legume lineages, suggesting that symbiosis and ploidy may interact at macroevolutionary scales. Overall, our results suggest that symbiosis with rhizobia limits range expansion when legumes are polyploid but not diploid.

Taxon Cycles in Neotropical Mangroves

The concept of the taxon cycle involves successive range expansions and contractions over time, through which a species can indefinitely maintain its core distribution. Otherwise, it becomes extinct. Taxon cycles have been defined mostly for tropical island faunas; examples from continental areas are scarce, and similar case studies for plants remain unknown. Most taxon cycles have been identified on the basis of phylogeographic studies, and straightforward empirical evidence from fossils is lacking. Here, empirical fossil evidence is provided for the recurrent Eocene to the present expansion/contraction cycles in a mangrove taxon (Pelliciera) after a Neotropical-wide study of the available pollen records. This recurrent behavior is compatible with the concept of the taxon cycle from biogeographical, chronological and ecological perspectives. The biotic and abiotic drivers potentially involved in the initiation and maintenance of the Pelliciera expansion/contraction cycles are analyzed, and the ecological and evolutionary implications are discussed. Whether this could be a trend toward extinction is considered under the predictions of the taxon cycle theory. The recurrent expansion and contraction cycles identified for Pelliciera have strong potential for being the first empirically and unequivocally documented taxon cycles and likely the only taxon cycles documented to date for plants.

Populations of western North American monkeyflowers accrue niche breadth primarily via genotypic divergence in environmental optima

Niche breadth, the range of environments that individuals, populations, and species can tolerate, is a fundamental ecological and evolutionary property, yet few studies have examined how niche breadth is partitioned across biological scales. We use a published dataset of thermal performance for a single population from each of 10 closely related species of western North American monkeyflowers (genus Mimulus) to investigate whether populations achieve broad thermal niches through general purpose genotypes, specialized genotypes with divergent environmental optima, and/or variation among genotypes in the degree of generalization. We found the strongest relative support for the hypothesis that populations with greater genetic variation for thermal optimum had broader thermal niches, and for every unit increase in among‐family variance in thermal optimum, population‐level thermal breadth increased by 0.508°C. While the niche breadth of a single genotype represented up to 86% of population‐level niche breadth, genotype‐level niche breadth had a weaker positive effect on population‐level breadth, with every 1°C increase in genotypic thermal breadth resulting in a 0.062°C increase in population breadth. Genetic variation for thermal breadth was not predictive of population‐level thermal breadth. These findings suggest that populations of Mimulus species have achieved broad thermal niches primarily through genotypes with divergent thermal optima and to a lesser extent via general‐purpose genotypes. Future work examining additional biological hierarchies would provide a more comprehensive understanding of how niche breadth partitioning impacts the vulnerabilities of individuals, populations, and species to environmental change.

Cultivation has selected for a wider niche and large range shifts in maize

Background

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple crop cultivated on a global scale. However, its ability to feed the rapidly growing human population may be impaired by climate change, especially if it has low climatic niche and range lability. One important question requiring clarification is therefore whether maize shows high niche and range lability.

Methods

We used the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion) and species distribution models to study the niche and range changes between maize and its wild progenitors using occurrence records of maize, lowland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. parviglumis) and highland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. mexicana), respectively, as well as explore the mechanisms underlying the niche and range changes.

Results

In contrast to maize in Mexico, maize did not conserve its niche inherited from lowland and highland teosinte at the global scale. The niche breadth of maize at the global scale was wider than that of its wild progenitors (ca. 5.21 and 3.53 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). Compared with its wild progenitors, maize at global scale can survive in regions with colder, wetter climatic conditions, as well as with wider ranges of climatic variables (ca. 4.51 and 2.40 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). The niche changes of maize were largely driven by human introduction and cultivation, which have exposed maize to climatic conditions different from those experienced by its wild progenitors. Small changes in niche breadth had large effects on the magnitude of range shifts; changes in niche breadth thus merit increased attention.

Discussion

Our results demonstrate that maize shows wide climatic niche and range lability, and this substantially expanded its realized niche and potential range. Our findings also suggest that niche and range shifts probably triggered by natural and artificial selection in cultivation may enable maize to become a global staple crop to feed the growing population and adapting to changing climatic conditions. Future analyses are needed to determine the limits of the novel conditions that maize can tolerate, especially relative to projected climate change.

Understanding the relationship between dispersal and range size

The drivers of variability in species range sizes remain an outstanding enigma in ecology. The theoretical expectation of a positive dispersal-range size relationship has received mixed empirical support, despite dispersal being one of the most prominent hypothesised predictors of range size. Here, we synthesised results from 86 studies examining the dispersal-range size relationship for plants and animals in marine, terrestrial and freshwater realms. Overall, our meta-analysis showed that dispersal positively affects range size, but its effect is dependent on the clade and dispersal proxy studied. Moreover, despite potential differences in habitat connectivity, we did not find an effect of realm on the dispersal-range size relationship. Finally, the strength of the dispersal-range size relationship was dependent on latitude, range size metric and the taxonomic breadth of the study clade. Our synthesis emphasizes the importance of developing a mechanistic understanding of the trait to dispersal to range size relationship, considering the complexity of dispersal departure, transfer and settlement, as well as evolutionary components such as time for range expansion, speciation and past geological-environmental dynamics. We, therefore, call for a more integrative view of the dispersal process and its causal relationship with range size.

Fitness homeostasis across an experimental water gradient predicts species' geographic range and climatic breadth

Species range sizes and realized niche breadths vary tremendously. Understanding the source of this variation has been a long-term aim in evolutionary ecology and is a major tool in efforts to ameliorate the impacts of changing climates on species distributions. Species ranges that span a large climatic envelope can be achieved by a collection of specialized genotypes locally adapted to a small range of conditions, by genotypes with stable fitness across variable environments, or a combination of these factors. We asked whether fitness expressed along a key niche axis, water availability, could explain a species' realized niche breadth--its geographic range and climate breadth-- in 11 species from a clade of jewelflowers whose range sizes vary by two orders of magnitude. Specifically, we explored whether the range size of a species was related to the ability of genotypes (maternal families) to maintain fitness across a range of experimental water availabilities based on 30-year historical field precipitation regimes. We operationally characterized fitness homeostasis through the coefficient of variation (CV) in fitness of a genotype (family) across the experimental water gradient. We found that species with genotypes that had high fitness homeostasis -- low variation in fitness over our treatments --had larger climatic niche breadth and geographic range in their field distributions. The result was robust to alternate measures of fitness homeostasis. Our results show that the fitness homeostasis of genotypes can be a major factor contributing to niche breadth and range size in this clade. Fitness homeostasis can buffer species from loss of genetic diversity and under changing climates, provides time for adaptation to future conditions.

A viewpoint on ecological and evolutionary study of plant thermal performance curves in a warming world

We can understand the ecology and evolution of plant thermal niches through thermal performance curves (TPCs), which are unimodal, continuous reaction norms of performance across a temperature gradient. Though there are numerous plant TPC studies, plants remain under-represented in syntheses of TPCs. Further, few studies quantify plant TPCs from fitness-based measurements (i.e. growth, survival and reproduction at the individual level and above), limiting our ability to draw conclusions from the existing literature about plant thermal adaptation. We describe recent plant studies that use a fitness-based TPC approach to test fundamental ecological and evolutionary hypotheses, some of which have uncovered key drivers of climate change responses. Then, we outline three conceptual questions in ecology and evolutionary biology for future plant TPC studies: (i) Do populations and species harbour genetic variation for TPCs? (ii) Do plant TPCs exhibit plastic responses to abiotic and biotic factors? (iii) Do fitness-based TPCs scale up to population-level thermal niches? Moving forward, plant ecologists and evolutionary biologists can capitalize on TPCs to understand how plasticity and adaptation will influence plant responses to climate change.

The relative role of plasticity and demographic history in Capsella bursa-pastoris: a common garden experiment in Asia and Europe

The colonization success of a species depends on the interplay between its phenotypic plasticity, adaptive potential and demographic history. Assessing their relative contributions during the different phases of a species range expansion is challenging, and requires large-scale experiments. Here, we investigated the relative contributions of plasticity, performance and demographic history to the worldwide expansion of the shepherd's purse, Capsella bursa-pastoris. We installed two large common gardens of the shepherd's purse, a young, self-fertilizing, allopolyploid weed with a worldwide distribution. One common garden was located in Europe, the other in Asia. We used accessions from three distinct genetic clusters (Middle East, Europe and Asia) that reflect the demographic history of the species. Several life-history traits were measured. To explain the phenotypic variation between and within genetic clusters, we analysed the effects of (i) the genetic clusters, (ii) the phenotypic plasticity and its association to fitness and (iii) the distance in terms of bioclimatic variables between the sampling site of an accession and the common garden, i.e. the environmental distance. Our experiment showed that (i) the performance of C. bursa-pastoris is closely related to its high phenotypic plasticity; (ii) within a common garden, genetic cluster was a main determinant of phenotypic differences; and (iii) at the scale of the experiment, the effect of environmental distance to the common garden could not be distinguished from that of genetic clusters. Phenotypic plasticity and demographic history both play important role at different stages of range expansion. The success of the worldwide expansion of C. bursa-pastoris was undoubtedly influenced by its strong phenotypic plasticity.

Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061–2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.

Potential distribution of the extremely endangered species Ostrya rehderiana (Betulaceae) in China under future climate change

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, which may increase the extinction risk of rare species, particularly those like Ostrya rehderiana Chun (Betulaceae) with very few remaining extant wild individuals. We aimed to estimate the potential distribution of O. rehderiana under climate change and to analyze possible relevant climatic factors. Maximum entropy (Maxent) was employed to model the potential distribution of O. rehderiana under present and future climate scenarios. Suitable habitat areas in different periods and the main contributing climate factors were identified using species distribution models. The minimum temperature in winter and precipitation seasonality were the principal climatic factors influencing the establishment of O. rehderiana. The proportion of high potential distribution area in China was 3.91% and would further shrink significantly under changing climate, especially reduce by 97% under high radiative forcing. The extinction risk of O. rehderiana would still be extraordinarily high under future climate scenarios. The Tianmu and Luoxiao Mountains would be the only potential refugia for O. rehderiana in the future. Special conservation efforts are urgently required to rescue extremely endangered species as O. rehderiana. We propose priorities for the conservation region and suggestions for conservation management strategies.

Large- and small-scale geographic structures affecting genetic patterns across populations of an Alpine butterfly

Understanding factors influencing patterns of genetic diversity and the population genetic structure of species is of particular importance in the current era of global climate change and habitat loss. These factors include the evolutionary history of a species as well as heterogeneity in the environment it occupies, which in turn can change across time. Most studies investigating spatio-temporal genetic patterns have focused on patterns across wide geographic areas rather than local variation, but the latter can nevertheless be important particularly in topographically complex areas. Here, we consider these issues in the Sooty Copper butterfly (Lycaena tityrus) from the European Alps, using genome-wide SNPs identified through RADseq. We found strong genetic differentiation within the Alps with four genetic clusters, indicating western, central, and eastern refuges, and a strong reduction of genetic diversity from west to east. This reduction in diversity may suggest that the southwestern refuge was the largest one in comparison to other refuges. Also, the high genetic diversity in the west may result from (a) admixture of different western refuges, (b) more recent demographic changes, or (c) introgression of lowland L. tityrus populations. At small spatial scales, populations were structured by several landscape features and especially by high mountain ridges and large river valleys. We detected 36 outlier loci likely under altitudinal selection, including several loci related to membranes and cellular processes. We suggest that efforts to preserve alpine L. tityrus should focus on the genetically diverse populations in the western Alps, and that the dolomite populations should be treated as genetically distinct management units, since they appear to be currently more threatened than others. This study demonstrates the usefulness of SNP-based approaches for understanding patterns of genetic diversity, gene flow, and selection in a region that is expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

Earth is changing rapidly and so are many plant species’ ranges. Here, we synthesize eco-evolutionary patterns found in plant range studies and how knowledge of species ranges can inform our understanding of species conservation in the face of global change. We discuss whether general biogeographic “rules” are reliable and how they can be used to develop adaptive conservation strategies of native plant species across their ranges. Rules considered include (1) factors that set species range limits and promote range shifts; (2) the impact of biotic interactions on species range limits; (3) patterns of abundance and adaptive properties across species ranges; (4) patterns of gene flow and their implications for genetic rescue, and (5) the relationship between range size and conservation risk. We conclude by summarizing and evaluating potential species range rules to inform future conservation and management decisions. We also outline areas of research to better understand the adaptive capacity of plants under environmental change and the properties that govern species ranges. We advise conservationists to extend their work to specifically consider peripheral and novel populations, with a particular emphasis on small ranges. Finally, we call for a global effort to identify, synthesize, and analyze prevailing patterns or rules in ecology to help speed conservation efforts.

Fungi in soil and understory have coupled distribution patterns

Ecological processes that control fungal distribution are not well understood because many fungi can persist in a wide variety of dissimilar habitats which are seldom sampled simultaneously. Geographic range size is reflective of species’ resource usage, and for plants and animals, there is a robust positive correlation between niche-breadth and range-size. It remains unknown whether this pattern is true for fungi. To investigate the fungal niche breadth–range size relationship we identified habitat specialists and generalists from two habitats (plant leaves and soil) and asked whether habitat specialization influenced fungal biogeography. We sampled fungi from the soil and phylloplane of tropical forests in Vanuatu and used DNA metabarcoding of the fungal ITS1 region to examine rarity, range size, and habitat connectivity. Fungal communities from the soil and phylloplane are spatially autocorrelated and the spatial distribution of individual fungal OTU are coupled between habitats. Habitat breadth (generalist fungi) did not result in larger range sizes but did correlate positively with occurrence frequency. Fungi that were frequently found were also found in high abundance, a common observation in similar studies of plants and animals. Fungal abundance-occupancy relationships differed by habitat and habitat-specificity. Soil specialists were found to be locally abundant but restricted geographically. In contrast, phylloplane generalists were found to be abundant over a large range in multiple habitats. These results are discussed in the context of differences between habitat characteristics, stability and spatial distribution. Identifying factors that drive spatial variation is key to understanding the mechanisms that maintain biodiversity in forests.

Rarity in freshwater vascular plants across Europe and North America: Patterns, mechanisms and future scenarios

Patterns of species rarity have long fascinated ecologists, yet most of what we know about the natural world stems from studies of common species. A large proportion of freshwater plant species has small range sizes and are therefore considered rare. However, little is known about the mechanisms and geographical distribution of rarity in the aquatic realm and to what extent diversity of rare species in freshwater plants follows their terrestrial counterparts. Here, we present the first in-depth analysis of geographical patterns, potential deterministic ecogeographical factors and projected scenarios of freshwater vascular plant rarity using 50 × 50 km grid cells across Europe (41°N-71°N) and North America (25°N-78°N). Our results suggest that diversity of rare species shows different patterns in relation to latitude on the two continents, and that hotspots of rarity concentrate in a relatively small proportion of the European and North American land surface, especially in mountainous as well as in climatically rare and stable areas. Interestingly, we found no differences among alternative rarity definitions and measures when delineating areas with notably high diversity of rare species. Our findings also indicate that few variables, namely a combination of current climate, Late Quaternary climate-change velocity and human footprint, are able to accurately predict the location of continental centers of rare species diversity. However, these relationships are not geographically homogeneous, and the underlying factors likely act synergistically. Perhaps more importantly, we provide empirical evidence that current centers of rare species diversity are characterized by higher anthropogenic impacts and might shrink disproportionately within this century as the climate changes. Our reported distributional patterns of species rarity align with the known trends in species richness of other freshwater organisms and may help conservation planners make informed decisions mitigating the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Assessing climate change tolerance and the niche breadth-range size hypothesis in rare and widespread alpine plants

Species range limits often reflect niche limits, especially for ranges constrained along elevational gradients. In this study, we used elevational transplant experiments to test niche breadth and functional trait plasticity in early life stages of narrow-range Nabalus boottii and broad-range N. trifoliolatus plants to assess their climate change vulnerability and the applicability of the niche breadth-range size hypothesis to explain their range size differences. We discovered that the earliest life stage (seed germination) was the most vulnerable and the two alpine taxa, N. boottii and N. trifoliolatus var. nanus, were unable to establish at the warm low elevation site, however non-alpine N. trifoliolatus established at all three elevations, including at the high elevation (beyond-range) site. Niche limits in seed emergence may therefore contribute to range size in these taxa. In contrast, when seedlings were planted we found substantial functional trait plasticity in later life stages (average 44% across ten traits) that was highly similar for all Nabalus taxa, suggesting that differences in plasticity do not generate niche differences or restrict range size in the focal taxa. While this substantial plasticity may help buffer populations faced by climate change, the inability of the alpine taxa to establish at lower elevation sites suggests that their populations may still decline due to decreased seed recruitment under ongoing climate change. We therefore recommend monitoring alpine Nabalus populations, particularly globally rare N. boottii.

The role of landscape history in the distribution and conservation of threatened flora in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region

The flora of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR) is characterized by remarkable richness, endemism, spatial turnover and numbers of threatened taxa. Increasingly, evolutionary history is recognized as contributing to SWAFR biogeographical patterns, culminating in the theory of old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes (OCBILs) [and their counterpoint: young, often disturbed, fertile landscapes (YODFELs)]. For the SWAFR, we: (1) developed a spatially explicit distribution of OCBILs and YODFELs; (2) analysed the spatial distribution of Threatened and Priority (Data Deficient) flora; and (3) tested the hypotheses that Threatened and Priority flora will be most strongly represented in OCBILs and will have small geographical ranges. We found that OCBILs and YODFELs dominated spatially distinct portions of the SWAFR. Threatened and Priority flora were not uniformly or randomly distributed and were more strongly characterized by narrow-range endemics than the non-Threatened flora. The occurrence of Threatened and Priority flora was positively correlated with the age of surface exposure of landscape features and unique geological features of limited extent (if not YODFELs). The concentration of Threatened flora in OCBILs provides the opportunity to improve conservation management through investigations of how plant traits favoured by evolution in OCBILs might increase or decrease the susceptibility of the flora to anthropogenic threats.

Adaptation across geographic ranges is consistent with strong selection in marginal climates and legacies of range expansion

Every species experiences limits to its geographic distribution. Some evolutionary models predict that populations at range edges are less well adapted to their local environments due to drift, expansion load, or swamping gene flow from the range interior. Alternatively, populations near range edges might be uniquely adapted to marginal environments. In this study, we use a database of transplant studies that quantify performance at broad geographic scales to test how local adaptation, site quality, and population quality change from spatial and climatic range centers toward edges. We find that populations from poleward edges perform relatively poorly, both on average across all sites (15% lower population quality) and when compared to other populations at home (31% relative fitness disadvantage), consistent with these populations harboring high genetic load. Populations from equatorial edges also perform poorly on average (18% lower population quality) but, in contrast, outperform foreign populations (16% relative fitness advantage), suggesting that populations from equatorial edges have strongly adapted to unique environments. Finally, we find that populations from sites that are thermally extreme relative to the species' niche demonstrate strong local adaptation, regardless of their geographic position. Our findings indicate that both nonadaptive processes and adaptive evolution contribute to variation in adaptation across species' ranges.

Macroecological context predicts species' responses to climate warming

Context-dependencies in species' responses to the same climate change frustrate attempts to generalize and make predictions based on experimental and observational approaches in biodiversity science. Here, we propose predictability may be enhanced by explicitly incorporating macroecological context into analyses of species' responses to climate manipulations. We combined vascular plant species' responses to an 8-year, 12-site turf transplant climate change experiment set in southwestern Norway with climate niche data from the observed 151 species. We used the difference between a species' mean climate across their range and climate conditions at the transplant site ("climate differences") to predict colonization probability, extinction probability, and change in abundance of a species at a site. In analyses across species that ignore species-specific patterns, colonization success increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly warmer than the experimental target site. Extinction probability increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly colder than the target site. These patterns were reflected in change in abundance analyses. We found weak responses to increased precipitation in these oceanic climates. Climate differences were better predictors of species' responses to climate manipulations than range size. Interestingly, similar patterns were found when analyses focused on variation in species-specific responses across sites. These results provide an experimental underpinning to observational studies that report thermophilization of communities and suggest that space-for-time substitutions may be valid for predicting species' responses to climate warming, given other conditions are accounted for (e.g., soil nutrients). Finally, we suggest that this method of putting climate change experiments into macroecological context has the potential to generalize and predict species' responses to climate manipulations globally.

Osmoregulatory ability predicts geographical range size in marine amniotes

Species that are distributed over wide geographical ranges are likely to encounter a greater diversity of environmental conditions than do narrowly distributed taxa, and thus we expect a correlation between size of geographical range and breadth of physiological tolerances to abiotic challenges. That correlation could arise either because higher physiological capacity enables range expansion, or because widely distributed taxa experience more intense (but spatially variable) selection on physiological tolerances. The invasion of oceanic habitats by amniotic vertebrates provides an ideal system with which to test the predicted correlation between range size and physiological tolerances, because all three lineages that have secondarily moved into marine habitats (mammals, birds, reptiles) exhibit morphological and physiological adaptations to excrete excess salt. Our analyses of data on 62 species (19 mammals, 18 birds, 24 reptiles) confirm that more-widely distributed taxa encounter habitats with a wider range of salinities, and that they have higher osmoregulatory ability as determined by sodium concentrations in fluids expelled from salt-excreting organs. This result remains highly significant even in models that incorporate additional explanatory variables such as metabolic mode, body size and dietary habits. Physiological data thus may help to predict potential range size and perhaps a species' vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance.

OCBIL theory examined: reassessing evolution, ecology and conservation in the world’s ancient, climatically buffered and infertile landscapes

OCBIL theory was introduced as a contribution towards understanding the evolution, ecology and conservation of the biological and cultural diversity of old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes (OCBILs), especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The theory addresses some of the most intransigent environmental and cultural trends of our time – the ongoing decline of biodiversity and cultural diversity of First Nations. Here we reflect on OCBILs, the origins of the theory, and its principal hypotheses in biological, anthropological and conservation applications. The discovery that threatened plant species are concentrated in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR) on infertile, phosphorous-impoverished uplands within 500 km of the coast formed the foundational framework for OCBIL theory and led to the development of testable hypotheses that a growing literature is addressing. Currently, OCBILs are recognized in 15 Global Biodiversity Hotspots and eight other regions. The SWAFR, Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa and South America’s campos rupestres (montane grasslands) are those regions that have most comprehensively been investigated in the context of OCBIL theory. We summarize 12 evolutionary, ecological and cultural hypotheses and ten conservation-management hypotheses being investigated as recent contributions to the OCBIL literature.

Intricate Distribution Patterns of Six Cytotypes of Allium oleraceum at a Continental Scale: Niche Expansion and Innovation Followed by Niche Contraction With Increasing Ploidy Level

The establishment and success of polyploids are thought to often be facilitated by ecological niche differentiation from diploids. Unfortunately, most studies compared diploids and polyploids, ignoring variation in ploidy level in polyploids. To fill this gap, we performed a large-scale study of 11,163 samples from 1,283 populations of the polyploid perennial geophyte Allium oleraceum with reported mixed-ploidy populations, revealed distribution ranges of cytotypes, assessed their niches and explored the pattern of niche change with increasing ploidy level. Altogether, six ploidy levels (3x-8x) were identified. The most common were pentaploids (53.6%) followed by hexaploids (22.7%) and tetraploids (21.6%). Higher cytotype diversity was found at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes (>52° N), where only tetraploids and pentaploids occurred. We detected 17.4% of mixed-ploidy populations, usually as a combination of two, rarely of three, cytotypes. The majority of mixed-ploidy populations were found in zones of sympatry of the participating cytotypes, suggesting they have arisen through migration (secondary contact zone). Using coarse-grained variables (climate, soil), we found evidence of both niche expansion and innovation in tetraploids related to triploids, whereas higher ploidy levels showed almost zero niche expansion, but a trend of increased niche unfilling of tetraploids. Niche unfilling in higher ploidy levels was caused by a contraction of niche envelopes toward lower continentality of the climate and resulted in a gradual decrease of niche breadth and a gradual shift in niche optima. Field-recorded data indicated wide habitat breadth of tetraploids and pentaploids, but also a pattern of increasing synanthropy in higher ploidy levels. Wide niche breadth of tetra- and pentaploids might be related to their multiple origins from different environmental conditions, higher "age", and retained sexuality, which likely preserve their adaptive potential. In contrast, other cytotypes with narrower niches are mostly asexual, probably originating from a limited range of contrasting environments. Persistence of local ploidy mixtures could be enabled by the perenniality of A. oleraceum and its prevalence of vegetative reproduction, facilitating the establishment and decreasing exclusion of minority cytotype due to its reproductive costs. Vegetative reproduction might also significantly accelerate colonization of new areas, including recolonization of previously glaciated areas.

What Do We Really Know About Adaptation at Range Edges?

Recent theory and empirical evidence have provided new insights regarding how evolutionary forces interact to shape adaptation at stable and transient range margins. Predictions regarding trait divergence at leading edges are frequently supported. However, declines in fitness at and beyond edges show that trait divergence has sometimes been insufficient to maintain high fitness, so identifying constraints to adaptation at range edges remains a key challenge. Indirect evidence suggests that range expansion may be limited by adaptive genetic variation, but direct estimates of genetic constraints at and beyond range edges are still scarce. Sequence data suggest increased genetic load in edge populations in several systems, but its causes and fitness consequences are usually poorly understood. The balance between maladaptive and positive effects of gene flow on fitness at range edges deserves further study. It is becoming increasingly clear that characterizations about degree of adaptation based solely on geographical peripherality are unsupported.

Visualizing connectivity of ecological and evolutionary concepts-An exploration of research on plant species rarity

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary factors that influence species rarity has important theoretical and applied implications, yet the reasons why some species are rare while others are common remain unresolved. As a novel exploration of scientific knowledge, we used network analysis conceptually to visualize the foci of a comprehensive base of >800 studies on plant species rarity within the context of ecology and evolution. In doing so, we highlight existing research strengths that could substantiate novel syntheses and gaps that could inspire new research. Our results reveal strong integrated foci on population dynamics with other ecological concepts. In contrast, despite the potential for ecological and evolutionary processes to interact, few studies explored the interplay of environmental factors and microevolutionary patterns. The cellular and molecular biology, physiology, and plasticity of rare plant species within both ecological and evolutionary contexts similarly provide avenues for impactful future investigations.

Occurrence of apomictic conspecifics and ecological preferences rather than colonization history govern the geographic distribution of sexual Potentilla puberula

The geographic distribution of sexual-apomictic taxa (i.e., comprising individuals usually reproducing either sexually or asexually via seeds) is traditionally thought to be driven by their ecological preferences and colonization histories. Where sexuals and apomicts get into contact with each other, competitive and reproductive interactions can interfere with these factors, an aspect which hitherto received little attention in biogeographic studies. We disentangled and quantified the relative effects of the three factors on the distribution of tetraploid sexuals in Potentilla puberula in a latitudinal transect through the Eastern European Alps, in which they are codistributed with penta-, hepta-, and octoploid apomictic conspecifics. Effects were explored by means of binomial generalized linear regression models combining a single with a multiple predictor approach. Postglacial colonization history was inferred from population genetic variation (AFLPs and cpDNA) and quantified using a cost distance metric. The study was based on 235 populations, which were purely sexual, purely apomictic, or of mixed reproductive mode. The occurrence of apomicts explained most of the variation in the distribution of sexuals (31%). Specifically, the presence of sexual tetraploids was negatively related to the presence of each of the three apomictic cytotypes. Effects of ecological preferences were substantial too (7% and 12% of the total variation explained by ecological preferences alone, or jointly with apomicts' occurrence, respectively). In contrast, colonization history had negligible effects on the occurrence of sexuals. Taken together, our results highlight the potentially high impact of reproductive interactions on the geographic distribution of sexual and apomictic conspecifics and that resultant mutual exclusion interrelates to ecological differentiation, a situation potentially promoting their local coexistence.