Estimates of child deaths prevented from malaria prevention scale-up in Africa 2001-2010

Non-Coding RNAs Potentially Involved in Pyrethroid Resistance of Anopheles funestus Population in Western Kenya

Backgrounds The resurgence of Anopheles funestus , a dominant vector of human malaria in western Kenya was partly attributed to insecticide resistance. However, evidence on the molecular basis of pyrethroid resistance in western Kenya is limited. Noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) form a vast class of RNAs that do not code for proteins and are ubiquitous in the insect genome. Here, we demonstrated that multiple ncRNAs could play a potential role in An. funestus resistance to pyrethroid in western Kenya. Materials and Methods Anopheles funestus mosquitoes were sampled by aspiration methods in Bungoma, Teso, Siaya, Port Victoria and Kombewa in western Kenya. The F1 progenies were exposed to deltamethrin (0.05%), permethrin (0.75%), DDT (4%) and pirimiphos-methyl (0.25%) following WHO test guidelines. A synergist assay using piperonyl butoxide (PBO) (4%) was conducted to determine cytochrome P450s' role in pyrethroid resistance. RNA-seq was conducted on a combined pool of specimens that were resistant and unexposed, and the results were compared with those of the FANG susceptible strain. This approach aimed to uncover the molecular mechanisms underlying pyrethroid resistance. Results Pyrethroid resistance was observed in all the sites with an average mortality rate of 57.6%. Port Victoria had the highest level of resistance to permethrin (MR=53%) and deltamethrin (MR=11%) pyrethroids. Teso had the lowest level of resistance to permethrin (MR=70%) and deltamethrin (MR=87%). Resistance to DDT was observed only in Kombewa (MR=89%) and Port Victoria (MR=85%). A full susceptibility to P-methyl (0.25%) was observed in all the sites. PBO synergist assay revealed high susceptibility (>98%) to the pyrethroids in all the sites except for Port Victoria (MR=96%, n=100). Whole transcriptomic analysis showed that most of the gene families associated with pyrethroid resistance comprised non-coding RNAs (67%), followed by imipenemase (10%),cytochrome P450s (6%), cuticular proteins (5%), olfactory proteins (4%), glutathione S-transferases (3%), UDP-glycosyltransferases (2%), ATP-binding cassettes (2%) and carboxylesterases(1%). Conclusions This study unveils the molecular basis of insecticide resistance in An. funestus in western Kenya, highlighting for the first time the potential role of non-coding RNAs in pyrethroid resistance. Targeting non-coding RNAs for intervention development could help in insecticide resistance management.

Sterilized Anopheles funestus can autodisseminate sufficient pyriproxyfen to the breeding habitat under semi-field settings

BACKGROUND

Anopheles funestus, the main malaria vector, prefer to oviposit in permanent and/or semi-permanent breeding habitats located far from human dwellings. Difficulties in identifying and accessing these habitats jeopardize the feasibility of conventional larviciding. In this way, a semi-field study was conducted to assess the potential of autodissemination of pyriproxyfen (PPF) by An. funestus for its control.

METHODS

The study was conducted inside a semi-field system (SFS). Therein, two identical separate chambers, the treatment chamber with a PPF-treated clay pot (0.25 g AI), and the control chamber with an untreated clay pot. In both chambers, one artificial breeding habitat made of a plastic basin with one litre of water was provided. Three hundred blood-fed female An. funestus aged 5-9 days were held inside untreated and treated clay pots for 30 min and 48 h before being released for oviposition. The impact of PPF on adult emergence, fecundity, and fertility through autodissemination and sterilization effects were assessed by comparing the treatment with its appropriate control group.

RESULTS

Mean (95% CI) percentage of adult emergence was 15.5% (14.9-16.1%) and 70.3% (69-71%) in the PPF and control chamber for females exposed for 30 min (p < 0.001); and 19% (12-28%) and 95% (88-98%) in the PPF and control chamber for females exposed for 48 h (p < 0.001) respectively. Eggs laid by exposed mosquitoes and their hatch rate were significantly reduced compared to unexposed mosquitoes (p < 0.001). Approximately, 90% of females exposed for 48 h retained abnormal ovarian follicles and only 42% in females exposed for 30 min.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated sterilization and adult emergence inhibition via autodissemination of PPF by An. funestus. Also, it offers proof that sterilized An. funestus can transfer PPF to prevent adult emergence at breeding habitats. These findings warrant further assessment of the autodissemination of PPF in controlling wild population of An. funestus, and highlights its potential for complementing long-lasting insecticidal nets.

Effects of vegetation densities on the performance of attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) for malaria vector control: a semi-field study

BACKGROUND

Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) control sugar-feeding mosquitoes with oral toxicants, and may effectively complement core malaria interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets even where pyrethroid-resistance is widespread. The technology is particularly efficacious in arid and semi-arid areas. However, their performance remains poorly-understood in tropical areas with year-round malaria transmission, and where the abundant vegetation constitutes competitive sugar sources for mosquitoes. This study compared the efficacies of ATSBs (active ingredient: 2% boric acid) in controlled settings with different vegetation densities.

METHODS

Potted mosquito-friendly plants were introduced inside semi-field chambers (9.6 m by 9.6 m) to simulate densely-vegetated, sparsely-vegetated, and bare sites without any vegetation (two chambers/category). All chambers had volunteer-occupied huts. Laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis were released nightly (200/chamber) and host-seeking females recaptured using human landing catches outdoors (8.00 p.m.-9.00 p.m.) and CDC-light traps indoors (9.00 p.m.-6.00 a.m.). Additionally, resting mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors each morning using Prokopack aspirators. The experiments included a "before-and-after" set-up (with pre-ATSBs, ATSBs and post-ATSBs phases per chamber), and a "treatment vs. control" set-up (where similar chambers had ATSBs or no ATSBs). The experiments lasted 84 trap-nights.

RESULTS

In the initial tests when all chambers had no vegetation, the ATSBs reduced outdoor-biting by 69.7%, indoor-biting by 79.8% and resting mosquitoes by 92.8%. In tests evaluating impact of vegetation, the efficacy of ATSBs against host-seeking mosquitoes was high in bare chambers (outdoors: 64.1% reduction; indoors: 46.8%) but modest or low in sparsely-vegetated (outdoors: 34.5%; indoors: 26.2%) and densely-vegetated chambers (outdoors: 25.4%; indoors: 16.1%). Against resting mosquitoes, the ATSBs performed modestly across settings (non-vegetated chambers: 37.5% outdoors and 38.7% indoors; sparsely-vegetated: 42.9% outdoors and 37.5% indoors; densely-vegetated: 45.5% outdoors and 37.5% indoors). Vegetation significantly reduced the ATSBs efficacies against outdoor-biting and indoor-biting mosquitoes but not resting mosquitoes.

CONCLUSION

While vegetation can influence the performance of ATSBs, the devices remain modestly efficacious in both sparsely-vegetated and densely-vegetated settings. Higher efficacies may occur in places with minimal or completely no vegetation, but such environments are naturally unlikely to sustain Anopheles populations or malaria transmission in the first place. Field studies therefore remain necessary to validate the efficacies of ATSBs in the tropics.

Associations between the use of insecticide-treated nets in early childhood and educational outcomes, marriage and child-bearing in early adulthood: evidence from a 22-year prospective cohort study in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in preventing malaria in young children is well established. However, the long-term effects of early childhood ITN use on educational outcomes, fertility, and marriage in early adulthood are not well understood.

METHODS

This study uses 22 years of longitudinal data from rural Tanzania to investigate the associations between early life ITN use and educational attainment, fertility and marriage in early adulthood. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the associations between early life ITN use and early adult outcomes (education, childbearing, and marriage), controlling for potential confounders, such as parental education, household asset quintiles, and year of birth. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women.

RESULTS

A total of 6706 participants born between 1998 and 2000 were enrolled in the study between 1998 and 2003. By 2019 a total of 604 had died and a further 723 could not be found, leaving 5379 participants who were interviewed, among whom complete data were available for 5216. Among women, sleeping under a treated net at least half of the time during early childhood ["high ITN use"] was associated with a 13% increase in the odds of completing primary school (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.13 [0.85, 1.50]) and with a 40% increase in the odds of completing secondary school (aOR 1.40 [1.11, 1.76]) compared with women sleeping less frequently under ITNs in early life (< age 5 years). Among men, high ITN use was associated with a 50% increase in the odds of completing primary school (aOR 1.50 [1.18, 1.92]) and a 56% increase in the odds of completing secondary school (aOR 1.56 [1.16, 2.08]) compared to men with low ITN use in early life. Weaker associations were found between ITN use in early life and both adolescent childbearing (aOR 0.91 [0.75, 1.10]) and early marriage (aOR 0.86 [0.69, 1.05]).

CONCLUSION

This study found that early life use of ITNs was strongly associated with increased school completion in both men and women. More marginal associations were found between early-life ITN use and both marriage and child-bearing in early adulthood. ITN use during early childhood may have long-term positive effects on educational attainment in Tanzania. However, further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind these associations and to explore the broader impacts of ITN use on other aspects of early adult life.

Comparison of entomological impacts of two methods of intervention designed to control Anopheles gambiae s.l. via swarm killing in Western Burkina Faso

Outdoor biting constitutes a major limitation of current vector control based primarily on long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying, both of which are indoor interventions. Consequently, malaria elimination will not be achieved unless additional tools are found to deal with the residual malaria transmission and the associated vector dynamics. In this study we tested a new vector control approach for rapidly crashing mosquito populations and disrupting malaria transmission in Africa. This method targets the previously neglected swarming and outdoor nocturnal behaviors of both male and female Anopheles mosquitoes. It involved accurate identification and targeted spraying of mosquito swarms to suppress adult malaria vector populations and their vectorial capacities. The impact of targeted spraying was compared to broadcast spraying and evaluated simultaneously. The effects of the two interventions were very similar, no significant differences between targeted spraying and broadcast spraying were found for effects on density, insemination or parity rate. However, targeted spraying was found to be significantly more effective than broadcast spraying at reducing the number of bites per person. As expected, each intervention had a highly significant impact upon all parameters measured, but the targeted swarm spraying required less insecticide.

Underestimation of travel-associated risks by adult and paediatric travellers compared to expert assessment: A cross-sectional study at a hospital-based family pre-travel clinic

BACKGROUND

Travellers' perception of their risk for acquiring travel-related conditions is an important contributor to decisions and behaviors during travel. In this study, we aimed to assess the differences between traveller-perceived and expert-assessed risk of travel-related conditions in children and adults travelling internationally and describe factors that influence travellers' perception of risk.

METHODS

Children and adults were recruited at the Hospital for Sick Children's Family Travel Clinic between October 2014 and July 2015. A questionnaire was administered to participants to assess their perceived risk of acquiring 32 travel-related conditions using a 7-point Likert scale. Conditions were categorized as vector-borne diseases, vaccine-preventable diseases, food and water borne diseases, sexually transmitted infections and other conditions. Two certified travel medicine experts reviewed each patient's chart and assigned a risk score based on the same 7-point Likert scale. Traveller and expert risk scores were compared using paired t-tests.

RESULTS

In total, 207 participants were enrolled to participate in this study, 97 children (self-reported, n = 8; parent-reported, n = 89), and 110 adults. Travel-related risk for adults and parents answering for their children were significantly underestimated when compared to expert-assessed risk for 26 of the 32 assessed conditions. The underestimated conditions were the same for both adults and parents answering for children. Travel-related risk was not over-estimated for any condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults underestimated their children's and their own risk for most travel-related conditions. Strategies to improve the accuracy of risk perception of travel-related conditions by travellers are needed to optimize healthy travel for children and their families.

Congenital cerebral malaria: a masquerader in a neonate

Background

Congenital malaria, which is caused by vertical transmission of malaria parasites, is a potentially fatal condition. Despite Africa’s high malaria burden, congenital malaria is not routinely screened for, and thus may go undiagnosed. Malaria, if not treated promptly, can quickly progress to severe forms and result in death. Severe congenital malaria is believed to be uncommon in neonates due to maternal antibodies, fetal haemoglobin, and the placenta’s sieving effect. The majority of reported cases were classified as having severe anaemia. Following a thorough review of the literature, only one case of congenital cerebral malaria (CCM) has been reported, and it was misdiagnosed.

Case presentation

A 5-day-old Nigerian neonate born to an apparently healthy mother initially displayed characteristics consistent with neonatal sepsis and severe neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia. He quickly developed characteristics consistent with meningitis. Surprisingly, the peripheral blood film revealed evidence of malaria parasites, which was immediately confirmed by Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood film microscopy for malaria. The patient was diagnosed with congenital cerebral malaria. The medication was modified to parenteral artesunate followed by oral artemisinin combination therapy. The neonate recovered fully and had no neurological deficits on follow up.

Conclusion

Because CCM and infant meningitis have similar clinical presentations, CCM could be misdiagnosed and lead to death if there isn’t a high index of suspicion.

More than seven decades of Acta Tropica: Partnership to advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

The inaugural issue of Acta Tropica has been published in 1944, at a time of utmost international isolation and uncertainty due to World War II. Now, more than seven decades later, Acta Tropica is a trusted outlet to communicate and disseminate scientific advances in the fields of parasitology and tropical medicine. As a scholarly, peer-reviewed journal, Acta Tropica contributes to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3, that is "Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all of all ages". This article explores how Acta Tropica has evolved over time. Our analysis is based on a systematic review of keywords derived from all issues published in a specific year, arbitrarily selected at decadal snapshots (1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020). Results indicate a decrease in interdisciplinarity in favour of more specialised expertise in various fields of infectious diseases research and public health with a particular emphasis on low- and middle-income countries. Yet, by examining first and last authors' institutional affiliations and classifying countries by the Human Development Index (HDI), we find that most authors are affiliated with institutions in high- and very high-HDI countries. Over time, the mean number of authors on a paper has increased severalfold (from 1.35 in 1950 to 7.51 in 2020). Taken together, Acta Tropica has become increasingly globally anchored and contributes not only to SDG 3, but increasingly also to SDG 17, that is "Revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development".

Evaluation of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Net Distribution Through Schools in Southern Tanzania

Universal coverage with effective vector control remains the mainstay of malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa Tanzania has utilized a number of mechanisms for the maintenance of long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) coverage over time. Schools have been identified as one potential channel for continuous distribution of LLIN. This research aims to evaluate an annual school based LLIN distribution programme in Tanzania which began in 2013, called the School Net Programme (SNP). Following each of the first four rounds of SNP distribution, a household survey was conducted in intervention and comparison districts in Southern and Lake zones of Tanzania (N = 5083 households). Measures of ownership, access, and use were compared between intervention and comparison districts. Determinants of reach were assessed in intervention districts. Population access to an LLIN increased from 63.1% (95% CI: 58.8, 67.5) to 76.5% (95% CI: 72.9, 80.0) in the intervention districts between the first and last surveys. Access also rose in the comparison districts from 51.4% (95% CI: 46.9, 55.9) to 79.8% (95% CI: 77.3, 82.0) following a mass distribution and implementation of school-based distribution during the study period. LLIN use increased in intervention districts from 44.9% (95% CI: 40.5, 49.3) to 65.6% (95% CI: 59.4, 71.8) and from 57.2% (95% CI: 49.7, 64.7) to 77.4% (95% CI: 69.3, 85.5) specifically amongst primary school-aged children. Households reached by the SNP were wealthier households with children enrolled in school. The SNP in Tanzania was able to maintain population level LLIN ownership, use, and access in the absence of a mass distribution. The SNP successfully reached households which housed school-aged children. Alternative delivery strategies may need to be considered to reach households without children enrolled in school which experienced less benefit from the program.

Wild populations of malaria vectors can mate both inside and outside human dwellings

BACKGROUND

Wild populations of Anopheles mosquitoes are generally thought to mate outdoors in swarms, although once colonized, they also mate readily inside laboratory cages. This study investigated whether the malaria vectors Anopheles funestus and Anopheles arabiensis can also naturally mate inside human dwellings.

METHOD

Mosquitoes were sampled from three volunteer-occupied experimental huts in a rural Tanzanian village at 6:00 p.m. each evening, after which the huts were completely sealed and sampling was repeated at 11:00 p.m and 6 a.m. the next morning to compare the proportions of inseminated females. Similarly timed collections were done inside local unsealed village houses. Lastly, wild-caught larvae and pupae were introduced inside or outside experimental huts constructed inside two semi-field screened chambers. The huts were then sealed and fitted with exit traps, allowing mosquito egress but not entry. Mating was assessed in subsequent days by sampling and dissecting emergent adults caught indoors, outdoors and in exit traps.

RESULTS

Proportions of inseminated females inside the experimental huts in the village increased from approximately  60% at 6 p.m. to approximately 90% the following morning despite no new mosquitoes entering the huts after 6 p.m. Insemination in the local homes increased from approximately 78% to approximately 93% over the same time points. In the semi-field observations of wild-caught captive mosquitoes, the proportions of inseminated An. funestus were 20.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: ± 2.8) outdoors, 25.2% (95% CI: ± 3.4) indoors and 16.8% (± 8.3) in exit traps, while the proportions of inseminated An. arabiensis were 42.3% (95% CI: ± 5.5) outdoors, 47.4% (95% CI: ± 4.7) indoors and 37.1% (CI: ± 6.8) in exit traps.

CONCLUSION

Wild populations of An. funestus and An. arabiensis in these study villages can mate both inside and outside human dwellings. Most of the mating clearly happens before the mosquitoes enter houses, but additional mating happens indoors. The ecological significance of such indoor mating remains to be determined. The observed insemination inside the experimental huts fitted with exit traps and in the unsealed village houses suggests that the indoor mating happens voluntarily even under unrestricted egress. These findings may inspire improved vector control, such as by targeting males indoors, and potentially inform alternative methods for colonizing strongly eurygamic Anopheles species (e.g. An. funestus) inside laboratories or semi-field chambers.

Pyrethroid Resistance in Anopheles gambiae Not Associated with Insecticide-Treated Mosquito Net Effectiveness Across Sub-Saharan Africa

Pyrethroid resistance is a major concern for malaria vector control programs that predominantly rely on insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs). Contradictory results of the impact of resistance have been observed during field studies. We combined continent-wide estimates of pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae from 2006 to 2017, with continent-wide survey data to assess the effect of increasing pyrethroid resistance on the effectiveness of ITNs to prevent malaria infections in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a pooled-data approach and a meta-regression of survey regions to assess how pyrethroid resistance affects the association between ITN ownership and malaria outcomes for children 6 to 59 months of age. ITN ownership reduced the risk of malaria outcomes according to both the pooled and meta-regression approaches. According to the pooled analysis, there was no observed interaction between ITN ownership and estimated level of pyrethroid resistance (likelihood ratio [LR] test, 1.127 for malaria infection confirmed by the rapid diagnostic test, P = 0.2885; LR test = 0.161 for microscopy-confirmed malaria infection, P = 0.161; LR test = 0.646 for moderate or severe anemia, P = 0.4215). Using the meta-regression approach to determine the level of pyrethroid resistance did not explain any of the variance in subnational estimates of ITN effectiveness for any of the outcomes. ITNs decreased the risk of malaria independent of the levels of pyrethroid resistance in malaria vector populations.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Malaria Control Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the literature on the unit cost and cost-effectiveness of malaria control.

METHODS

Ten databases and gray literature sources were searched to identify evidence relevant to the period 2005 to 2018. Studies with primary financial or economic cost data from malaria endemic countries that took a provider, provider and household, or societal perspective were included.

RESULTS

We identified 103 costing studies. The majority of studies focused on individual rather than combined interventions, notably insecticide-treated bed nets and treatment, and commonly took a provider perspective. A third of all studies took place in 3 countries. The median provider economic cost of protecting 1 person per year ranged from $1.18 to $5.70 with vector control and from $0.53 to $5.97 with chemoprevention. The median provider economic cost per case diagnosed with rapid diagnostic tests was $6.06 and per case treated $9.31 or $89.93 depending on clinical severity. Other interventions did not share enough similarities to be summarized. Cost drivers were rarely reported. Cost-effectiveness of malaria control was reiterated, but care in methodological and reporting standards is required to enhance data transferability.

CONCLUSIONS

Important information that can support resource allocation was reviewed. Given the variability in methods and reporting, global efforts to follow existing standards are required for the evidence to be most useful outside their study context, supplemented by guidance on options for transferring existing data across settings.

Evaluation of Yahe® and Panda® 2.0 long-lasting insecticidal nets against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. from Côte d'Ivoire: an experimental hut trial

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have played an important role in reducing the global malaria burden since 2000. They are a core prevention tool used widely by people at risk of malaria. The Vector Control Prequalification mechanism of the Word Health Organization (WHO-Vector Control PQ) established the testing and evaluation guidelines for LLINs before registration for public use. In the present study, two new brands of deltamethrin-impregnated nets (Yahe^® LN and Panda^® Net 2.0) were evaluated in an experimental hut against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. in M'Bé nearby Bouaké, central Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

The performance of Yahe^® LN and Panda^® Net 2.0 was compared with that of PermaNet 2.0, conventionally treated nets (CTN), and untreated net to assess the blood-feeding inhibition, deterrence, induced exophily, and mortality.

RESULTS

Cone bioassay results showed that Panda^® Net 2.0, PermaNet 2.0 and Yahe^® LN (both unwashed and washed 20 times) induced > 95% knockdown or > 80% mortality of the susceptible Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain. With the pyrethroid-resistant M'Bé strain, mortality rate for all treated nets did not exceed 70%. There was a significant reduction in entry and blood feeding (p < 0.05) and an increase in exophily and mortality rates (p < 0.05) with all treatments compared to untreated nets, except the CTNs. However, the personal protection induced by these treated nets decreased significantly after 20 washes. The performance of Panda^® Net 2.0 was equal to PermaNet^® 2.0 in terms of inhibiting blood feeding, but better than PermaNet^® 2.0 in terms of mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that Yahe^® LN and Panda^® Net 2.0 met the WHO Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES) criteria to undergo phase III trial at the community level. Due to an increasing spread and development of pyrethroid resistance in malaria vectors, control of malaria transmission must evolve into an integrated vector management relying on a large variety of efficient control tools.

HIV infection and placental malaria reduce maternal transfer of multiple antimalarial antibodies in Mozambican women

OBJECTIVES

Maternal Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibodies may contribute to protect infants against severe malaria. Our main objective was to evaluate the impact of maternal HIV infection and placental malaria on the cord blood levels and efficiency of placental transfer of IgG and IgG subclasses.

METHODS

In a cohort of 341 delivering HIV-negative and HIV-positive mothers from southern Mozambique, we measured total IgG and IgG subclasses in maternal and cord blood pairs by quantitative suspension array technology against eight P. falciparum antigens: Duffy-binding like domains 3-4 of VAR2CSA from the erythrocyte membrane protein 1, erythrocyte-binding antigen 140, exported protein 1 (EXP1), merozoite surface proteins 1, 2 and 5, and reticulocyte-binding-homologue-4.2 (Rh4.2). We performed univariable and multivariable regression models to assess the association of maternal HIV infection, placental malaria, maternal variables and pregnancy outcomes on cord antibody levels and antibody transplacental transfer.

RESULTS

Maternal antibody levels were the main determinants of cord antibody levels. HIV infection and placental malaria reduced the transfer and cord levels of IgG and IgG1, and this was antigen-dependent. Low birth weight was associated with an increase of IgG2 in cord against EXP1 and Rh4.2.

CONCLUSIONS

We found lower maternally transferred antibodies in HIV-exposed infants and those born from mothers with placental malaria, which may underlie increased susceptibility to malaria in these children.

Implications of Insecticide-Treated Mosquito Net Fishing in Lower Income Countries

INTRODUCTION

Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) are highly effective for the control of malaria. Yet widely distributed ITNs have been repurposed as fishing nets throughout the world.

OBJECTIVES

Herein we present a synthesis of the current knowledge of ITN fishing and the toxicity of pyrethroids and discuss the potential implications of widespread fishing with ITNs. We further review effective management strategies in tropical fisheries to explore a framework for managing potential ITN fishing impacts.

DISCUSSION

Pyrethroids are toxic to fish and aquatic environments, and fishing with ITNs may endanger the health of fisheries. Furthermore, although human toxicity to the pyrethroid insecticides that impregnate ITNs is traditionally thought to be low, recent scientific advances have shown that pyrethroid exposure is associated with a host of human health issues, including neurocognitive developmental disorders, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Although it is known that ITN fishing is widespread, the implications for both fisheries and human communities is understudied and may be severe. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7001.

The fabric of life: what if mosquito nets were durable and widely available but insecticide-free?

BACKGROUND

Bed nets are the commonest malaria prevention tool and arguably the most cost-effective. Their efficacy is because they prevent mosquito bites (a function of physical durability and integrity), and kill mosquitoes (a function of chemical content and mosquito susceptibility). This essay follows the story of bed nets, insecticides and malaria control, and asks whether the nets must always have insecticides.

METHODS

Key attributes of untreated or pyrethroid-treated nets are examined alongside observations of their entomological and epidemiological impacts. Arguments for and against adding insecticides to nets are analysed in contexts of pyrethroid resistance, personal-versus-communal protection, outdoor-biting, need for local production and global health policies.

FINDINGS

Widespread resistance in African malaria vectors has greatly weakened the historical mass mosquitocidal effects of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), which previously contributed communal benefits to users and non-users. Yet ITNs still achieve substantial epidemiological impact, suggesting that physical integrity, consistent use and population-level coverage are increasingly more important than mosquitocidal properties. Pyrethroid-treatment remains desirable where vectors are sufficiently susceptible, but is no longer universally necessary and should be re-examined alongside other attributes, e.g. durability, coverage, acceptability and access. New ITNs with multiple actives or synergists could provide temporary relief in some settings, but their performance, higher costs, and drawn-out innovation timelines do not justify singular emphasis on insecticides. Similarly, sub-lethal insecticides may remain marginally-impactful by reducing survival of older mosquitoes and disrupting parasite development inside the mosquitoes, but such effects vanish under strong resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

The public health value of nets is increasingly driven by bite prevention, and decreasingly by lethality to mosquitoes. For context-appropriate solutions, it is necessary to acknowledge and evaluate the potential and cost-effectiveness of durable untreated nets across different settings. Though ~ 90% of malaria burden occurs in Africa, most World Health Organization-prequalified nets are manufactured outside Africa, since many local manufacturers lack capacity to produce the recommended insecticidal nets at competitive scale and pricing. By relaxing conditions for insecticides on nets, it is conceivable that non-insecticidal but durable, and possibly bio-degradable nets, could be readily manufactured locally. This essay aims not to discredit ITNs, but to illustrate how singular focus on insecticides can hinder innovation and sustainability.

Leveraging risk maps of malaria vector abundance to guide control efforts reduces malaria incidence in Eastern Province, Zambia

Although transmission of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases is geographically heterogeneous, in sub-Saharan Africa risk maps are rarely used to determine which communities receive vector control interventions. We compared outcomes in areas receiving different indoor residual spray (IRS) strategies in Eastern Province, Zambia: (1) concentrating IRS interventions within a geographical area, (2) prioritizing communities to receive IRS based on predicted probabilities of Anopheles funestus, and (3) prioritizing communities to receive IRS based on observed malaria incidence at nearby health centers. Here we show that the use of predicted probabilities of An. funestus to guide IRS implementation saw the largest decrease in malaria incidence at health centers, a 13% reduction (95% confidence interval = 5-21%) compared to concentrating IRS geographically and a 37% reduction (95% confidence interval = 30-44%) compared to targeting IRS based on health facility incidence. These results suggest that vector control programs could produce better outcomes by prioritizing IRS according to malaria-vector risk maps.

What about the treatment of asymptomatic forms of congenital malaria: case report and review of the literature

We report in this manuscript a case of newborn baby with asymptomatic form of congenital malaria; the screening of the peripheral blood smear of the baby after a positive result in the mother allowed the diagnosis. The authors were permitted through this case to discuss the therapeutic possibility in these cases.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the cost and cost-effectiveness of distributing insecticide-treated nets for the prevention of malaria

Insecticide-treated nets are one of two core vector control interventions recommended by the World Health Organization for deployment in malaria-endemic regions around the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Although there are many factors that influence the type of distribution strategy chosen, among the most important considerations for the type of distribution strategy chosen is cost, both in terms of total expenditure required and in terms of relative cost-effectiveness. This research attempted to inform these decisions by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on the cost and cost-effectiveness of ITN distribution. The analysis compared the relative cost and cost-effectiveness of distribution strategies. Findings suggest that mass campaigns have lower average distribution costs per net compared with continuous/health facility distribution or sale/vouchers, although the relationship between distribution channel and cost were not statistically significant in the multivariate regression models. Continuous/health facility distribution channels were found to be more cost-effective than mass campaigns for averting DALYs, death, and cases of malaria. Those who design and budget for malaria programs should base decisions about distribution channels more on operational and epidemiological considerations than on cost per net, as the costs per net between distribution channels are not statistically different.

Safety profile of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in infants and children: additional data from a phase III randomized controlled trial in sub-Saharan Africa

A phase III, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial (NCT00866619) in sub-Saharan Africa showed RTS,S/AS01 vaccine efficacy against malaria. We now present in-depth safety results from this study. 8922 children (enrolled at 5–17 months) and 6537 infants (enrolled at 6–12 weeks) were 1:1:1-randomized to receive 4 doses of RTS,S/AS01 (R3R) or non-malaria control vaccine (C3C), or 3 RTS,S/AS01 doses plus control (R3C). Aggregate safety data were reviewed by a multi-functional team. Severe malaria with Blantyre Coma Score ≤2 (cerebral malaria [CM]) and gender-specific mortality were assessed post-hoc. Serious adverse event (SAE) and fatal SAE incidences throughout the study were 24.2%–28.4% and 1.5%–2.5%, respectively across groups; 0.0%–0.3% of participants reported vaccination-related SAEs. The incidence of febrile convulsions in children was higher during the first 2–3 days post-vaccination with RTS,S/AS01 than with control vaccine, consistent with the time window of post-vaccination febrile reactions in this study (mostly the day after vaccination). A statistically significant numerical imbalance was observed for meningitis cases in children (R3R: 11, R3C: 10, C3C: 1) but not in infants. CM cases were more frequent in RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated children (R3R: 19, R3C: 24, C3C: 10) but not in infants. All-cause mortality was higher in RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated versus control girls (2.4% vs 1.3%, all ages) in our setting with low overall mortality. The observed meningitis and CM signals are considered likely chance findings, that – given their severity – warrant further evaluation in phase IV studies and WHO-led pilot implementation programs to establish the RTS,S/AS01 benefit-risk profile in real-life settings.

Circumstances of child deaths in Mali and Uganda: a community-based confidential enquiry

BACKGROUND

Interventions to reduce child deaths in Africa have often underachieved, causing the Millennium Development Goal targets to be missed. We assessed whether a community enquiry into the circumstances of death could improve intervention effectiveness by identifying local avoidable factors and explaining implementation failures.

METHODS

Deaths of children younger than 5 years were ascertained by community informants in two districts in Mali (762 deaths) and three districts in Uganda (442 deaths) in 2011-15. Deaths were investigated by interviewing parents and health workers. Investigation findings were reviewed by a panel of local health-care workers and community representatives, who formulated recommendations to address avoidable factors and, subsequently, oversaw their implementation.

FINDINGS

At least one avoidable factor was identified in 97% (95% CI 96-98, 737 of 756) of deaths in children younger than 5 years in Mali and 95% (93-97, 389 of 409) in Uganda. Suboptimal newborn care was a factor in 76% (146 of 194) of neonatal deaths in Mali and 64% (134 of 194) in Uganda. The most frequent avoidable factor in postneonatal deaths was inadequate child protection (mainly child neglect) in Uganda (29%, 63 of 215) and malnutrition in Mali (22%, 124 of 562). 84% (618 of 736 in Mali, 328 of 391 in Uganda) of families had consulted a health-care provider for the fatal illness, but the quality of care was often inadequate. Even in official primary care clinics, danger signs were often missed (43% of cases in Mali [135 of 396], 39% in Uganda [30 of 78]), essential treatment was not given (39% in Mali [154 of 396], 35% in Uganda [27 of 78]), and patients who were seriously ill were not referred to a hospital in time (51% in Mali [202 of 396], 45% in Uganda [35 of 78]). Local recommendations focused on quality of care in health-care facilities and on community issues influencing treatment-seeking behaviour.

INTERPRETATION

Local investigation and review of circumstances of death of children in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to lead to more effective interventions than simple consideration of the biomedical causes of death. This approach discerned local public health priorities and implementable solutions to address the avoidable factors identified.

FUNDING

European Union's 7th Framework Programme for research and technological development.

Epidemiological characterization of malaria in rural southern Tanzania following China-Tanzania pilot joint malaria control baseline survey

Background

Malaria is an important public health problem in Tanzania. The latest national malaria data suggests rebound of the disease in the country. Anopheles arabiensis, a mosquito species renowned for its resilience against existing malaria vector control measures has now outnumbered the endophagic and anthrophilic Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto as the dominant vector. Vector control measures, prophylaxis and case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) are the main control interventions. This paper presents and discusses the main findings from a baseline household survey that was conducted to determine malaria parasite prevalence and associated risk exposures prior to piloting the T3-initiative of World Health Organization integrated with Chinese malaria control experience aimed at additional reduction of malaria in the area.

Methods

The study was conducted from 4 sub-district divisions in Rufiji District, southern Tanzania: Ikwiriri, Kibiti, Bungu, and Chumbi. Malaria transmission is endemic in the area. It involved 2000 households that were randomly selected from a list of all households that had been registered from the area. Residents in sampled households were interviewed on a range of questions that included use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) the night prior to the interview and indicators of socio-economic status. Blood drops were also collected on blood slides that were examined for malaria parasites using microscopes.

Results

The study observed an average malaria parasite prevalence of 13% across the selected site. Its distribution was 5.6, 12.8, 16.7, and 18% from Ikwiriri, Kibiti, Bungu, and Chumbi wards, respectively. The corresponding LLIN use discovered were 57.5% over the district. The highest usage was observed from Ikwiriri at 69.6% and the lowest from Bungu at 46.3%. A statistically significant variation in parasitaemia between socio-economic quintiles was observed from the study. Males were more parasitaemic than females (p value = 0.000).

Discussion and conclusion

The findings have been discussed in the light of results from Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey-Malaria Indicator Survey, 2015–2016 and other related studies, together with goals and targets set for malaria control. The paper also discusses the observed parasitaemia in relation to reported LLIN use and its distribution by some important factors as they were explored from the study. It has been concluded that malaria burden is now concentrated on the fringes of the settlements where the poorest section of the population is concentrated and LLIN usage is lower than the national average and targets set by national and global malaria control initiatives.

Widespread mosquito net fishing in the Barotse floodplain: Evidence from qualitative interviews

BACKGROUND

The insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) is a crucial component of malaria control programs, and has prevented many malaria cases and deaths due to scale up. ITNs also serve effectively as fishing nets and various sources have reported use of ITNs for fishing. This article examines how widespread the practice of mosquito net fishing with ITNs is.

METHODS

We conducted in-depth interviews with fishery personnel and traditional leadership from the Barotse Royal Establishment in Western Province, Zambia, to better understand the presence or absence of the use of ITNs as fishing nets. We then coded the interviews for themes through content analysis. Additionally we conducted a desk review of survey data to show trends in malaria indicators, nutritional status of the population and fish consumption.

RESULTS

All those interviewed reported that ITNs are regularly used for fishing in Western Zambia and the misuse is widespread. Concurrently those interviewed reported declines in fish catches both in terms of quantity and quality leading to threatened food security in the area. In addition to unsustainable fishing practices those interviewed referenced drought and population pressure as reasons for fishery decline. Malaria indicators do not show a trend in declining malaria transmission, fish consumption has dropped dramatically and nutritional status has not improved over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the misuse of the ITNs for fishing all those interviewed maintained that ITN distribution should continue. Donors, control programs and scientists should realize that misuse of ITNs as fishing nets is a current problem for malaria control and potentially for food security that needs to be addressed.

Neonatal and congenital malaria: a case series in malaria endemic eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Congenital malaria is the direct infection of an infant with malaria parasites from their mother prior to or during birth. Neonatal malaria is due to an infective mosquito bite after birth. Neonatal and congenital malaria (NCM) are potentially life-threatening conditions that are believed to occur at relatively low rates in malaria endemic regions. However, recent reports suggest that the number of NCM cases is increasing, and its epidemiology remains poorly described. NCM can mimic other neonatal conditions and because it is thought to be rare, blood film examinations for malaria are not always routinely performed. Consequently, many cases of NCM are likely to be undiagnosed. A retrospective chart review for all neonates admitted with suspected sepsis between January and July 2017 was conducted and noted four cases of NCM since routine malaria testing was introduced as part of standard of care for suspected sepsis at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital Neonatology Unit. This description highlights the need to conduct routine malaria diagnostic testing for febrile neonates in malaria endemic areas, and supports the urgent need to undertake pharmacological studies on therapeutic agents in this population.

CASE PRESENTATION

Four cases (two congenital malaria cases and two neonatal malaria cases) are described after presenting for care at the Mbale Regional Referral Hospital Neonatal Unit (Mbale RRH-NNU). The maternal age was similar across the cases, but both neonatal malaria cases were born to primigravidae. At presentation three cases had fever and history of fever, but one was hypothermic (34.8 °C) and no history of fever. One case of congenital malaria had low birth weight, while the other was born to an HIV positive mother. Both cases of congenital malaria presented with poor feeding, in addition one of them had clinical jaundice. The neonatal malaria cases presented in the third week compared to the congenital malaria cases that presented within 48 h after birth. All of the cases of NCM were treated with intravenous artesunate. The admitting clinicians also instituted a course of antibiotics empirically to cover against possible bacterial co-infections. All four cases recovered and were discharged alive.

CONCLUSION

At the Mbale RRH-NNU, the finding of cases of NCM was not expected, therefore, neonates presenting with features of suspected sepsis in malaria endemic settings should be routinely screened for NCM. There is currently a lack of appropriate guidelines for treatment of NCM in the era of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), therefore, efforts to establish the safety profile and efficacy of ACT anti-malarials in neonates to guide development of evidence-based treatment guidelines for NCM are needed.

Can school-based distribution be used to maintain coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets: evidence from a large scale programme in southern Tanzania?

Many sub-Saharan African countries have achieved substantial gains in insecticide treated bednet coverage since 2005. The Tanzania National Malaria Control Programme identified school-based net distribution as one potential 'keep-up' strategy for the purpose of maintaining long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) coverage after a nationwide mass campaign in 2011. The School Net Programme (SNP) was implemented in three regions of southern Tanzania and distributed one LLIN to each enrolled child attending schools in primary grades (standards) 1, 3, 5 and 7, and secondary grades (forms) 2 and 4 in 2013 and again with slightly modified eligibility criteria in 2014 and 2015. Household surveys in the programme area as well as in a control area were conducted after each of the SNP distributions to measure ownership and use of long-lasting insecticide treated nets. Ownership of at least one LLIN after the first distribution was 76.1% (95% CI 70.8-80.7) in the intervention area and 78.6% (95% CI 74.4-82.3) in the control area. After the second distribution, ownership of at least one LLIN had dropped significantly in the control area to 65.4% (95% CI 59.5-71.0) in 2015 (P < 0.001), while coverage in the intervention area was maintained at 79.3% (95% CI 75.4 × 82.6). Ownership of at least one LLIN in intervention area remained stable following the second round of net distribution. During the same period LLIN ownership, especially of enough nets to ensure all household member access, fell significantly in the control area. These results demonstrate that the SNP may be sufficient to maintain stable LLIN coverage following a mass distribution of LLINs.

The Impact of Periodic Distribution Campaigns of Long-Lasting Insecticidal-Treated Bed Nets on Malaria Vector Dynamics and Human Exposure in Dielmo, Senegal

The implementation of long-lasting insecticidal-treated bed nets (LLINs) has contributed to halving the mortality rate due to malaria since 2000 in sub-Saharan Africa. These tools are highly effective against indoor-feeding malaria vectors. Thus, to achieve the World Health Assembly's new target to reduce the burden of malaria over the next 15 years by 90%, it is necessary to understand how the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria vectors and human exposure to bites is modified in the context of scaling up global efforts to control malaria transmission. This study was conducted in Dielmo, a Senegalese village, after the introduction of LLINs and two rounds of LLINs renewals. Data analysis showed that implementation of LLINs correlated with a significant decrease in the biting densities of the main malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus, reducing malaria transmission. Other environment factors likely contributed to the decrease in An. funestus, but this trend was enhanced with the introduction of LLINs. The bulk of bites occurred during sleeping hours, but the residual vector populations of An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus had an increased propensity to bite outdoors, so a risk of infectious bites remained for LLINs users. These results highlight the need to increase the level and correct use of LLINs and to combine this intervention with complementary control measures against residual exposure, such as spatial repellents and larval source management, to achieve the goal of eliminating malaria transmission.

True malaria prevalence in children under five: Bayesian estimation using data of malaria household surveys from three sub-Saharan countries

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the major causes of childhood death in sub-Saharan countries. A reliable estimation of malaria prevalence is important to guide and monitor progress toward control and elimination. The aim of the study was to estimate the true prevalence of malaria in children under five in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Kenya, using a Bayesian modelling framework that combined in a novel way malaria data from national household surveys with external information about the sensitivity and specificity of the malaria diagnostic methods used in those surveys-i.e., rapid diagnostic tests and light microscopy.

METHODS

Data were used from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DHS 2013-2014), Uganda (MIS 2014-2015) and Kenya (MIS 2015), where information on infection status using rapid diagnostic tests and/or light microscopy was available for 13,573 children. True prevalence was estimated using a Bayesian model that accounted for the conditional dependence between the two diagnostic methods, and the uncertainty of their sensitivities and specificities obtained from expert opinion.

RESULTS

The estimated true malaria prevalence was 20% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17%-23%) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 22% (95% UI 9-32%) in Uganda and 1% (95% UI 0-3%) in Kenya. According to the model estimations, rapid diagnostic tests had a satisfactory sensitivity and specificity, and light microscopy had a variable sensitivity, but a satisfactory specificity. Adding reported history of fever in the previous 14 days as a third diagnostic method to the model did not affect model estimates, highlighting the poor performance of this indicator as a malaria diagnostic.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of a gold standard test, Bayesian models can assist in the optimal estimation of the malaria burden, using individual results from several tests and expert opinion about the performance of those tests.

The investment case for folic acid fortification in developing countries

There is compelling evidence that neural tube defects can be prevented through mandatory folic acid fortification. Why, then, is an investment case needed? At the core of the answer to this question is the notion that governments and individuals have limited resources for which there are many competing claims. An investment case compares the costs and benefits of folic acid fortification relative to alternative life-saving investments and informs estimates of the financing required for implementation. Our best estimate is that the cost per death averted through mandatory folic acid fortification is $957 and the cost per disability-adjusted life year is $14.90. Both compare favorably to recommended life-saving interventions, such as the rotavirus vaccine and insecticide-treated bed nets. Thus, there is a strong economic argument for mandatory folic acid fortification. Further improvements to these estimates will require better data on the costs of implementing fortification and on the costs of improving compliance where regulations are already in place.

Associations between malaria-related ideational factors and care-seeking behavior for fever among children under five in Mali, Nigeria, and Madagascar

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under five years old in many low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we examined how malaria-related ideational factors may influence care-seeking behavior among female caregivers of children under five with fever. Data came from population-based surveys conducted in 2014–2015 by U.S. Agency for International Development-funded surveys in Madagascar, Mali, and Nigeria. The outcome of interest was whether a child under five with fever within two weeks prior to the survey was brought to a formal health facility for care. Results show a wide variation in care-seeking practices for children under five with fever across countries. Seeking care for febrile children under five in the formal health sector is far from a norm in the study countries. Important ideational factors associated with care-seeking behavior included caregivers’ perceived social norms regarding treatment of fever among children under five in Nigeria and Madagascar, and caregiver’s knowledge of the cause of malaria in Mali. Findings indicate that messages aimed to increase malaria-related knowledge should be tailored to the specific country, and that interventions designed to influence social norms about care-seeking are likely to result in increased care-seeking behavior for fever in children under five.

Cause-specific child mortality performance and contributions to all-cause child mortality, and number of child lives saved during the Millennium Development Goals era: a country-level analysis

BACKGROUND

During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, impressive reductions in the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) have been observed, although the MDG 4 target was not met. So far, cause-specific progress in child mortality has been analyzed and discussed mainly at the global and regional levels.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to explore annual changes in cause-specific mortality at the country level, assess which causes contributed the most to child mortality reduction in 2000-2015, and estimate how many child lives were saved.

METHODS

We used the cause-specific child mortality estimates published by Liu and colleagues. We derived average annual changes in cause-specific child mortality rates and cause-specific contribution to overall child mortality in 2000-2015. We estimated the number of cause-specific child deaths averted during the MDG era, assuming that cause-specific child mortality remained the same as in 2000. We targeted the 75 Countdown countries where 95% of maternal and child deaths occurred during the MDG era.

RESULTS

Wide disparities existed across causes within countries, both in neonatal and post-neonatal mortality reduction, except for a few countries such as China, Rwanda, and Cambodia. In 20 of the 45 sub-Saharan African countries, malaria was the main contributor to post-neonatal mortality reduction, and pneumonia was the main contributor in only six countries. A single disease often contributed to a substantial proportion of the child mortality reduction, particularly in west and central African countries. Diarrhea-specific post-neonatal child mortality reduction accounted for 7.1 million averted child deaths (24.5%), while pneumonia accounted for another 6.7 million averted child deaths (23%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates country-specific characteristics with regards to cause-wise child mortality that could not be identified by global or regional analyses. These findings provide the global community with evidence for formulating national policies and strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in child mortality reduction.

Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model

Background

In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity.

Methods

The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0–4 years, 5–14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016–2030.

Results

Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria —as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022–2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST.

Conclusions

Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4739-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Community-led Responses for Elimination (CoRE): a study protocol for a community randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of community-level, reactive focal drug administration for reducing Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence and incidence in Southern Province, Zambia

Background

Zambia is pushing for, and has made great strides towards, the elimination of malaria transmission in Southern Province. Reactive focal test and treat (RFTAT) using rapid diagnostic tests and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) has been key in making this progress. Reactive focal drug administration (RFDA) using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAP), may be superior in accelerating clearance of the parasite reservoir in humans due to the provision of enhanced chemoprophylactic protection of at-risk populations against new infections. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the relative effectiveness of RFDA with DHAP against RFTAT with AL (standard of care) for reducing Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and incidence.

Methods/design

The study will be conducted in four districts in Southern Province, Zambia; an area of low malaria transmission and high coverage of vector control. A community randomized controlled trial of 16 health facility catchment areas will be used to evaluate the impact of sustained year-round routine RFDA for 2 years, relative to a control of year-round routine RFTAT. Reactive case detection will be triggered by a confirmed malaria case, e.g., by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test at any government health facility. Reactive responses will be performed by community health workers (CHW) within 7 days of the index case confirmation date. Responses will be performed out to a radius of 140 m from the index case household. A subset of responses will be followed longitudinally for 90 days to examine reinfection rates. Primary outcomes include a post-intervention survey of malaria seropositivity (n = 4800 children aged 1 month to under 5 years old) and a difference-in-differences analysis of malaria parasite incidence, as measured through routine passive case detection at health facilities enrolled in the study. The study is powered to detect approximately a 65% relative reduction in these outcomes between the intervention versus the control.

Discussion

Strengths of this trial include a robust study design and an endline cross-sectional parasite survey as well as a longitudinal sample. Primary limitations include statistical power to detect only a 65% reduction in primary outcomes, and the potential for contamination to dilute the effects of the intervention.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02654912. Registered on 12 November 2015.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2249-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

The US President's Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86-15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79-12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI -0.07-7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal.

CONCLUSIONS

PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality.

Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning.

METHODS

Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria.

RESULTS

In projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts.

DISCUSSION

Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

Incidence and admission rates for severe malaria and their impact on mortality in Africa

Background

Appropriate treatment of life-threatening Plasmodium falciparum malaria requires in-patient care. Although the proportion of severe cases accessing in-patient care in endemic settings strongly affects overall case fatality rates and thus disease burden, this proportion is generally unknown. At present, estimates of malaria mortality are driven by prevalence or overall clinical incidence data, ignoring differences in case fatality resulting from variations in access. Consequently, the overall impact of preventive interventions on disease burden have not been validly compared with those of improvements in access to case management or its quality.

Methods

Using a simulation-based approach, severe malaria admission rates and the subsequent severe malaria disease and mortality rates for 41 malaria endemic countries of sub-Saharan Africa were estimated. Country differences in transmission and health care settings were captured by use of high spatial resolution data on demographics and falciparum malaria prevalence, as well as national level estimates of effective coverage of treatment for uncomplicated malaria. Reported and modelled estimates of cases, admissions and malaria deaths from the World Malaria Report, along with predicted burden from simulations, were combined to provide revised estimates of access to in-patient care and case fatality rates.

Results

There is substantial variation between countries’ in-patient admission rates and estimated levels of case fatality rates. It was found that for many African countries, most patients admitted for in-patient treatment would not meet strict criteria for severe disease and that for some countries only a small proportion of the total severe cases are admitted. Estimates are highly sensitive to the assumed community case fatality rates. Re-estimation of national level malaria mortality rates suggests that there is substantial burden attributable to inefficient in-patient access and treatment of severe disease.

Conclusions

The model-based methods proposed here offer a standardized approach to estimate the numbers of severe malaria cases and deaths based on national level reporting, allowing for coverage of both curative and preventive interventions. This makes possible direct comparisons of the potential benefits of scaling-up either category of interventions. The profound uncertainties around these estimates highlight the need for better data.

Electronic supplementary material

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GBD 2015 Child Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time.

METHODS

Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7-6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7-53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3-43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6-2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1-57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6-3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone.

INTERPRETATION

Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of behaviour change communication on the use of insecticide treated nets: a secondary analysis of ten post-campaign surveys from Nigeria

Background

Mass distribution campaigns of insecticide-treated nets for malaria prevention are usually accompanied by intensive behaviour change communication (BCC) to encourage hanging and use of nets. However, data on the effectiveness of these communication efforts are scarce. In preparation for the next round of mass campaigns in Nigeria, a secondary analysis of existing data from post-campaign surveys was undertaken to investigate the influence of BCC on net hanging and use.

Methods

Surveys were undertaken between 2009 and 2012 in ten states in Nigeria using standardized questionnaires. Two-stage cluster sampling was used to select households in each study site. Outcomes were defined as the effects of BCC message exposure and recall on knowledge, attitudes, perception as well as intentions and actual use. From the univariable analysis, potential confounders and explanatory variables were identified and key effects explored in multivariable linear or logistic regression models; terms in the models were kept if they had a marginal significance with p < 0.2. To quantify the effects from BCC, a treatment effect model was used with an inverse-probability weight regression adjustment.

Results

More than half of the respondents (58.4 %; 95 % CI 56.0, 60.7) had heard a message about net use or hanging during or after the distribution campaign, with media cited as the most common source of information. Attitude towards net use was positively linked to the number of messages recalled and was overall better in the northern study sites. The number of messages recalled was also the strongest predictor of knowledge (p < 0.001). All BCC outcomes showed a significant increase in net use, which was strongest for the confidence to take action regarding nets with an overall effect of 17 %-point increase of net use comparing poor and excellent confidence levels. Intention to use every night increased net use by 15 %-points and discussing net use in the family by 8 % points. All these effects were statistically significant (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Multichannel BCC campaigns as well as other media were effective in contributing to an increase in net culture, hanging and use, particularly by vulnerable groups.

Electronic supplementary material

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Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa: effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Background

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.

Methods

The dynamic Plasmodiumfalciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.

Results

Selected (best) GLMs explained 94–97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86–97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74–95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5–7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.

Conclusion

Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control.

Electronic supplementary material

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Assessing the effects of mosquito nets on malaria mortality using a space time model: a case study of Rufiji and Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in rural Tanzania

Background

Although malaria decline has been observed in most sub-Saharan African countries, the disease still represents a significant public health burden in Tanzania. There are contradictions on the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality. This study presents a Bayesian modelling framework for the analysis of the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality with environmental factors as confounder variables.

Methods

The analysis used longitudinal data collected in Rufiji and Ifakara Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites for the period of 1999–2011 and 2002–2012, respectively. Bayesian framework modelling approach using integrated nested laplace approximation (INLA) package in R software was used. The space time models were established to assess the effect of ownership of mosquito net on malaria mortality in 58 villages in the study area.

Results

The results show that an increase of 10 % in ownership of mosquito nets at village level had an average of 5.2 % decrease inall age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.948, 95 % CI = 0.917, 0.977) in Rufiji HDSS and 12.1 % decrease in all age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.879, 95 % CI = 0.806, 0.959) in Ifakara HDSS. In children under 5 years, results show an average of 5.4 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.946, 95 % CI = 0.909, 0.982) in Rufiji HDSS and 10 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.899, 95 % CI = 0.816, 0.995) in Ifakara HDSS. Model comparison show that model with spatial and temporal random effects was the best fitting model compared to other models without spatial and temporal, and with spatial–temporal interaction effects.

Conclusion

This modelling framework is appropriate and provides useful approaches to understanding the effect of mosquito nets for targeting malaria control intervention. Furthermore, ownership of mosquito nets at household showed a significant impact on malaria mortality.

Electronic supplementary material

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Treatment-seeking rates in malaria endemic countries

Background

The proportion of individuals who seek treatment for fever is an important quantity in understanding access to and use of health systems, as well as for interpreting data on disease incidence from routine surveillance systems. For many malaria endemic countries (MECs), treatment-seeking information is available from national household surveys. The aim of this paper was to assemble sub-national estimates of treatment-seeking behaviours and to predict national treatment-seeking measures for all MECs lacking household survey data.

Methods

Data on treatment seeking for fever were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys, Malaria Indicator Surveys and Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys for every MEC and year that data were available. National-level social, economic and health-related variables were gathered from the World Bank as putative covariates of treatment-seeking rates. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was used to estimate treatment-seeking behaviours for countries where survey data were unavailable. Two separate models were developed to predict the proportion of fever cases that would seek treatment at (1) a public health facility or (2) from any kind of treatment provider.

Results

Treatment-seeking data were available for 74 MECs and modelled for the remaining 24. GAMMs found that the percentage of pregnant women receiving prenatal care, vaccination rates, education level, government health expenditure, and GDP growth were important predictors for both categories of treatment-seeking outcomes. Treatment-seeking rates, which varied both within and among regions, revealed that public facilities were not always the primary facility type used.

Conclusions

Estimates of treatment-seeking rates show how health services are utilized and help correct reported malaria case numbers to obtain more accurate measures of disease burden. The assembled and modelled data demonstrated that while treatment-seeking rates have overall increased over time, access remains low in some malaria endemic regions and utilization of government services is in some areas limited.

Electronic supplementary material

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Effects of a new outdoor mosquito control device, the mosquito landing box, on densities and survival of the malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis, inside controlled semi-field settings

BACKGROUND

The significance of malaria transmission occurring outdoors has risen even in areas where indoor interventions such as long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying are common. The actual contamination rates and effectiveness of recently developed outdoor mosquito control device, the mosquito landing box (MLB), on densities and daily survival of host-seeking laboratory Anopheles arabiensis, which readily bites humans outdoors was demonstrated.

METHODS

Experiments were conducted in large semi-field systems (SFS) with human volunteers inside, to mimic natural ecosystems, and using MLBs baited with natural or synthetic human odours and carbon dioxide. The MLBs were dusted with 10% pyriproxyfen (PPF) or entomopathogenic fungi (Metarhizium anisopliae) spores to mark mosquitoes physically contacting the devices. Each night, 400 laboratory-reared An. arabiensis females were released in one SFS chamber with two MLBs, and another chamber without MLBs (control). Mosquitoes were individually recaptured while attempting to bite volunteers inside SFS or by aspiration from SFS walls. Mosquitoes from chambers with PPF-treated MLBs and respective controls were individually dipped in water-filled cups containing ten conspecific third-instar larvae, whose subsequent development was monitored. Mosquitoes recaptured from chambers with fungi-treated MLBs were observed for fungal hyphal growth on their cadavers. Separately, effects on daily survival were determined by exposing An. arabiensis in chambers having MLBs treated with 5% pirimiphos methyl compared to chambers without MLBs (control), after which the mosquitoes were recaptured and monitored individually until they died.

RESULTS

Up to 63% (152/240) and 43% (92/210) of mosquitoes recaptured inside treatment chambers were contaminated with pyriproxyfen and M. anisopliae, respectively, compared to 8% (19/240) and 0% (0/164) in controls. The mean number of larvae emerging from cups in which adults from chambers with PPF-treated MLBs were dipped was significantly lower [0.75 (0.50-1.01)], than in controls [28.79 (28.32-29.26)], P < 0.001). Daily survival of mosquitoes exposed to 5% pirimiphos methyl was nearly two-fold lower than controls [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.748 (1.551-1.920), P < 0.001].

CONCLUSION

High contamination rates in exposed mosquitoes even in presence of humans, demonstrates potential of MLBs for controlling outdoor-biting malaria vectors, either by reducing their survival or directly killing host-seeking mosquitoes. The MLBs also have potential for dispensing filial infanticides, such as PPF, which mosquitoes can transmit to their aquatic habitats for mosquito population control.

Malaria Parasitemia Among Febrile Patients Seeking Clinical Care at an Outpatient Health Facility in an Urban Informal Settlement Area in Nairobi, Kenya

Nairobi is considered a low-risk area for malaria transmission, but travel can influence transmission of malaria. We investigated the demographic characteristics and travel history of patients with documented fever and malaria in a study clinic in a population-based surveillance system over a 5-year period, January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. During the study period, 11,480 (68%) febrile patients had a microscopy test performed for malaria, of which 2,553 (22%) were positive. Malaria was detected year-round with peaks in January, May, and September. Children aged 5–14 years had the highest proportion (28%) of positive results followed by children aged 1–4 years (23%). Almost two-thirds of patients with malaria reported traveling outside Nairobi; 79% of these traveled to three counties in western Kenya. History of recent travel (i.e., in past month) was associated with malaria parasitemia (odds ratio: 10.0, 95% confidence interval: 9.0–11.0). Malaria parasitemia was frequently observed among febrile patients at a health facility in the urban slum of Kibera, Nairobi. The majority of patients had traveled to western Kenya. However, 34% reported no travel history, which raises the possibility of local malaria transmission in this densely populated, urban setting. These findings have important implications for malaria control in large Nairobi settlements.

Comparative study of Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1-DBLα domain variants with respect to antigenic variations and docking interaction analysis with glycosaminoglycans

The variant surface antigen PfEMP1 (Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1) encoded by the polymorphic multi-copy var gene family plays an important role in parasite biology and the host-parasite interactions. Sequestration and antigenic variation is an essential component in the survival and pathogenesis of Plasmodium falciparum and contributes to chronic infection. The DBLα domain of PfEMP1 is a potential target for immuno-epidemiological studies and has been visualized as a vaccine candidate against severe malaria. Specific host receptors like heparin, heparan sulphate, blood group A and complement receptor 1 have been reported to bind the DBLα domain. Although heparin has been experimentally shown to disrupt the parasite-host interaction and effectively disrupt rosetting, the binding sites for the DBLα domain and the mechanism behind heparin-mediated rosette inhibition have not been elucidated. In this study, 3D structures and epitopes of the DBLα domain in 3D7 and in two Indian isolates have been predicted and compared. We have carried out docking studies on DBLα domains with human GAG receptors (heparin and heparan sulphate) to predict the strength of association between the protein-ligand interactions. The DBLα domain structures showed extensive diversity and polymorphism in their binding sites. The docking results indicate that heparin binds more effectively with high affinity as compared to heparan sulphate with some common interacting residues. These common residues can play an important role in rosetting and will aid in the designing of inhibitors specific to the interactions between DBLα and heparin or heparan sulphate would be important in malaria treatment. Thus it may lead to the development of novel interference strategies to block red blood cell invasion and provide protection against malaria.

Investigating a Non-Mesh Mosquito Net Among Outdoor Sleeping Nomadic Communities in Kenya

Rising reports of exophagic malaria vectors make even more pressing the need for alternatives to traditional, mesh, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) designed for indoor sleeping and often inadequate in the protection of outdoor-sleeping populations. This study tests and evaluates the retention, utilization, and durability of novel, non-mesh nets designed for outdoor use. Longitudinal, cross-sectional surveys were conducted, the physical condition of nets was assessed, and bio-efficacy and insecticide content were tested. At 22 months, retention was 98.0%; 97.1% of nets fell within the World Health Organization (WHO) category of being in “good” condition; none were in the “torn” category. At 18 months post-distribution, 100% of nets had at least WHO Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES)-acceptable levels of insecticide, this proportion was 66.7% at 22 months. This novel mosquito net has the potential to provide a durable and context-specific tool to prevent malaria among traditionally hard-to-protect and highly vulnerable populations.

Where have all the mosquito nets gone? Spatial modelling reveals mosquito net distributions across Tanzania do not target optimal Anopheles mosquito habitats

Background

Malaria remains the deadliest vector-borne disease despite long-term, costly control efforts. The United Republic of Tanzania has implemented countrywide anti-malarial interventions over more than a decade, including national insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and subsequent monitoring. While previous analyses have compared spatial variation in malaria endemicity with ITN distributions, no study has yet compared Anopheles habitat suitability to determine proper allocation of ITNs. This study assesses where mosquitoes were most likely to thrive before implementation of large-scale ITN interventions in Tanzania and determine if ITN distributions successfully targeted those areas.

Methods

Using Maxent, a species distribution model was constructed relating anopheline mosquito occurrences for 1999–2003 to high resolution environmental observations. A 2011–2012 layer of mosquito net ownership was created using georeferenced data across Tanzania from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The baseline mosquito habitat suitability was compared to subsequent ITN ownership using (1) the average ITN numbers per house and (2) the proportion of households with ≥1 net to test whether national ITN ownership targets have been met and have tracked malaria risk.

Results

Elevation, land cover, and human population distribution outperformed variants of temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in anopheline distribution models. The spatial distribution of ITN ownership across Tanzania was near-random spatially (Moran’s I = 0.07). Householders reported owning 2.488 ITNs on average and 93.41 % of households had ≥1 ITN. Mosquito habitat suitability was statistically unrelated to reported ITN ownership and very weakly to the proportion of households with ≥1 ITN (R² = 0.051). Proportional ITN ownership/household varied relative to mosquito habitat suitability (Levene’s test F = 3.0037). Quantile regression was used to assess trends in ITN ownership among households with the highest and lowest 10 % of ITN ownership. ITN ownership declined significantly toward areas with the highest vector habitat suitability among households with lowest ITN ownership (t = −3.38). In areas with lowest habitat suitability, ITN ownership was consistently higher.

Conclusions

Insecticide-treated net ownership is critical for malaria control. While Tanzania-wide efforts to distribute ITNs has reduced malaria impacts, gaps and variance in ITN ownership are unexpectedly large in areas where malaria risk is highest. Supplemental ITN distributions targeting prime Anopheles habitats are likely to have disproportionate human health benefits.

Electronic supplementary material

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A systematic, realist review of zooprophylaxis for malaria control

BACKGROUND

Integrated vector management (IVM) is recommended as a sustainable approach to malaria control. IVM consists of combining vector control methods based on scientific evidence to maximize efficacy and cost-effectiveness while minimizing negative impacts, such as insecticide resistance and environmental damage. Zooprophylaxis has been identified as a possible component of IVM as livestock may draw mosquitoes away from humans, decreasing human-vector contact and malaria transmission. It is possible, however, that livestock may actually draw mosquitoes to humans, increasing malaria transmission (zoopotentiation). The goal of this paper is to take a realist approach to a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to understand the contexts under which zooprophylaxis or zoopotentiation occur.

METHODS

Three electronic databases were searched using the keywords 'zooprophylaxis' and 'zoopotentiation', and forward and backward citation tracking employed, to identify relevant articles. Only empirical, peer-reviewed articles were included. Critical appraisal was applied to articles retained for full review.

RESULTS

Twenty empirical studies met inclusion criteria after critical appraisal. A range of experimental and observational study designs were reported. Outcome measures included human malaria infection and mosquito feeding behaviour. Two key factors were consistently associated with zooprophylaxis and zoopotentiation: the characteristics of the local mosquito vector, and the location of livestock relative to human sleeping quarters. These associations were modified by the use of bed nets and socio-economic factors.

DISCUSSION

This review suggests that malaria risk is reduced (zooprophylaxis) in areas where predominant mosquito species do not prefer human hosts, where livestock are kept at a distance from human sleeping quarters at night, and where mosquito nets or other protective measures are used. Zoopotentiation occurs where livestock are housed within or near human sleeping quarters at night and where mosquito species prefer human hosts.

CONCLUSION

The evidence suggests that zooprophylaxis could be part of an effective strategy to reduce malaria transmission under specific ecological and geographical conditions. The current scientific evidence base is inconclusive on understanding the role of socio-economic factors, optimal distance between livestock and human sleeping quarters, and the effect of animal species and number on zooprophylaxis.

Enhancing the child survival agenda to promote, protect, and support early child development

High rates of child mortality and lost developmental potential in children under 5 years of age remain important challenges and drivers of inequity in the developing world. Substantive progress has been made toward Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to improve child survival, but as we move into the post-2015 sustainable development agenda, much more work is needed to ensure that all children can realize their full and holistic physical, cognitive, psychological, and socio-emotional development potential. This article presents child survival and development as a continuous and multifaceted process and suggests that a life-course perspective of child development should be at the core of future policy making, programming, and research. We suggest that increased attention to child development, beyond child survival, is key to operationalize the sustainable development goals (SDGs), address inequities, build on the demographic dividend, and maximize gains in human potential. An important step toward implementation will be to increase integration of existing interventions for child survival and child development. Integrated interventions have numerous potential benefits, including optimization of resource use, potential additive impacts across multiple domains of health and development, and opportunity to realize a more holistic approach to client-centered care. However, a notable challenge to integration is the continued division between the health sector and other sectors that support child development. Despite these barriers, empirical evidence is available to suggest that successful multisectoral coordination is feasible and leads to improved short- and long-term outcomes in human, social, and economic development.

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

Background

Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.

Methods

1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR_2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR_2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use.

Results

P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991–92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast.

Conclusions

Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission.