The trajectory of dispersal research in conservation biology. Systematic review

Harnessing ecological theory to enhance ecosystem restoration

Ecosystem restoration can increase the health and resilience of nature and humanity. As a result, the international community is championing habitat restoration as a primary solution to address the dual climate and biodiversity crises. Yet most ecosystem restoration efforts to date have underperformed, failed, or been burdened by high costs that prevent upscaling. To become a primary, scalable conservation strategy, restoration efficiency and success must increase dramatically. Here, we outline how integrating ten foundational ecological theories that have not previously received much attention - from hierarchical facilitation to macroecology - into ecosystem restoration planning and management can markedly enhance restoration success. We propose a simple, systematic approach to determining which theories best align with restoration goals and are most likely to bolster their success. Armed with a century of advances in ecological theory, restoration practitioners will be better positioned to more cost-efficiently and effectively rebuild the world's ecosystems and support the resilience of our natural resources.

What explains the high island endemicity of Philippine Rafflesia? A species distribution modeling analysis of three threatened parasitic plant species and their hosts

PREMISE

Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distributional pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity.

METHODS

We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions and two future climate change scenarios.

RESULTS

Although species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas were inferred to have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersibility and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.

disperseNN2: a neural network for estimating dispersal distance from georeferenced polymorphism data

Spatial genetic variation is shaped in part by an organism's dispersal ability. We present a deep learning tool, disperseNN2, for estimating the mean per-generation dispersal distance from georeferenced polymorphism data. Our neural network performs feature extraction on pairs of genotypes, and uses the geographic information that comes with each sample. These attributes led disperseNN2 to outperform a state-of-the-art deep learning method that does not use explicit spatial information: the mean relative absolute error was reduced by 33% and 48% using sample sizes of 10 and 100 individuals, respectively. disperseNN2 is particularly useful for non-model organisms or systems with sparse genomic resources, as it uses unphased, single nucleotide polymorphisms as its input. The software is open source and available from https://github.com/kr-colab/disperseNN2 , with documentation located at https://dispersenn2.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ .

disperseNN2: a neural network for estimating dispersal distance from georeferenced polymorphism data

Spatial genetic variation is shaped in part by an organism's dispersal ability. We present a deep learning tool, disperseNN2, for estimating the mean per-generation dispersal distance from georeferenced polymorphism data. Our neural network performs feature extraction on pairs of genotypes, and uses the geographic information that comes with each sample. These attributes led disperseNN2 to outperform a state-of-the-art deep learning method that does not use explicit spatial information: the mean relative absolute error was reduced by 33% and 48% using sample sizes of 10 and 100 individuals, respectively. disperseNN2 is particularly useful for non-model organisms or systems with sparse genomic resources, as it uses unphased, single nucleotide polymorphisms as its input. The software is open source and available from https://github.com/kr-colab/disperseNN2, with documentation located at https://dispersenn2.readthedocs.io/en/latest/.

Dispersal inference from population genetic variation using a convolutional neural network

The geographic nature of biological dispersal shapes patterns of genetic variation over landscapes, making it possible to infer properties of dispersal from genetic variation data. Here, we present an inference tool that uses geographically distributed genotype data in combination with a convolutional neural network to estimate a critical population parameter: the mean per-generation dispersal distance. Using extensive simulation, we show that our deep learning approach is competitive with or outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly at small sample sizes. In addition, we evaluate varying nuisance parameters during training-including population density, demographic history, habitat size, and sampling area-and show that this strategy is effective for estimating dispersal distance when other model parameters are unknown. Whereas competing methods depend on information about local population density or accurate inference of identity-by-descent tracts, our method uses only single-nucleotide-polymorphism data and the spatial scale of sampling as input. Strikingly, and unlike other methods, our method does not use the geographic coordinates of the genotyped individuals. These features make our method, which we call "disperseNN," a potentially valuable new tool for estimating dispersal distance in nonmodel systems with whole genome data or reduced representation data. We apply disperseNN to 12 different species with publicly available data, yielding reasonable estimates for most species. Importantly, our method estimated consistently larger dispersal distances than mark-recapture calculations in the same species, which may be due to the limited geographic sampling area covered by some mark-recapture studies. Thus genetic tools like ours complement direct methods for improving our understanding of dispersal.

The role of oceanic currents in the dispersal and connectivity of the mangrove Rhizophora mangle on the Southwest Atlantic region

Dispersal is a crucial mechanism to living beings, allowing them to reach new resources such that populations and species can occupy new environments. However, directly observing the dispersal mechanisms of widespread species can be costly or even impractical, which is the case for mangrove trees. The influence of ocean currents on mangrove dispersal is increasingly evident; however, few studies mechanistically relate the patterns of population distribution with the dispersal by oceanic currents under an integrated framework. Here, we evaluate the role of oceanic currents on connectivity of Rhizophora mangle along the Southwest Atlantic. We inferred population genetic structure and migration rates, simulated the displacement of propagules and tested our hypotheses with Mantel tests and redundancy analysis. We observed populations structured in two major groups, north and south, which is corroborated by other studies with Rhizophora and other coastal plants. Inferred recent migration rates do not indicate ongoing gene flow between sites. Conversely, long-term migration rates were low across groups and contrasting dispersal patterns within each one, which is consistent with long-distance dispersal events. Our hypothesis tests suggest that both isolation by distance and isolation by oceanography (derived from the oceanic currents) can explain the neutral genetic variation of R. mangle in the region. Our findings expand current knowledge of mangrove connectivity and highlight how the association of molecular methods with oceanographic simulations improve the interpretation of the dispersal process. This integrative approach is a cost- and time-efficient strategy to include dispersal and connectivity data into marine protected areas planning and management.

Empirical landscape genetic comparison of single nucleotide polymorphisms and microsatellites in three arid-zone mammals with high dispersal capacity

Landscape genetics is increasingly transitioning away from microsatellites, with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) providing increased resolution for detecting patterns of spatial-genetic structure. This is particularly pertinent for research in arid-zone mammals due to challenges associated with unique life history traits, such as boom-bust population dynamics and long-distance dispersal capacities. Here, we provide a case study comparing SNPs versus microsatellites for testing three explicit landscape genetic hypotheses (isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-barrier, and isolation-by-resistance) in a suite of small, arid-zone mammals in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Using clustering algorithms, Mantel tests, and linear mixed effects models, we compare functional connectivity between genetic marker types and across species, including one marsupial, Ningaui timealeyi, and two native rodents, Pseudomys chapmani and P. hermannsburgensis. SNPs resolved subtle genetic structuring not detected by microsatellites, particularly for N. timealeyi where two genetic clusters were identified. Furthermore, stronger signatures of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-resistance were detected when using SNPs, and model selection based on SNPs tended to identify more complex resistance surfaces (i.e., composite surfaces of multiple environmental layers) in the best-performing models. While we found limited evidence for physical barriers to dispersal across the Pilbara for all species, we found that topography, substrate, and soil moisture were the main environmental drivers shaping functional connectivity. Our study demonstrates that new analytical and genetic tools can provide novel ecological insights into arid landscapes, with potential application to conservation management through identifying dispersal corridors to mediate the impacts of ongoing habitat fragmentation in the region.

Blowin' in the wind: Dispersal of Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus in the West Mediterranean basin

The movement of organisms is a central process in ecology and evolution, and understanding the selective forces shaping the spatial structure of populations is essential to conservation. Known as a trans-Saharan migrant capable of long-distance flights, the Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus' dispersal remains poorly known. We started a ringing scheme in 2008, the first of its kind in North Africa, and ringed 1121 fledglings over 10 years, of which 265 (23.6%) were resighted. Circular statistics and finite mixture models of natal dispersal indicated: (1) a strong West/Northwest-East/Southeast flight orientation; (2) Glossy Ibis colonies from North Africa and Southern Europe (particularly on the Iberian Peninsula) are closely linked through partial exchanges of juvenile and immature birds; (3) unlike birds from Eastern Europe, North African Glossy Ibis disperse to but do not seem to undergo regular round-trip migration to the Sahel; (4) young adults (>2-years-old) have a higher probability of dispersing further than individuals in their first calendar year (<1-year-old); and (5) dispersal distance is not influenced by sex or morphometric traits. Together, these results enhance our knowledge of the dispersal and metapopulation dynamics of Glossy Ibis, revealing large-scale connectivity between the Iberian Peninsula and Algeria, likely driven by the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape in these two regions and the prevailing winds in the Western Mediterranean.

Biogeographic patterns in populations of marine Pseudoalteromonas atlantica isolates

Intra-specific genomic diversity is well documented in microbes. The question, however, remains whether natural selection or neutral evolution is the major contributor to this diversity. We undertook this study to estimate genomic diversity in Pseudoalteromonas atlantica populations and whether the diversity, if present, could be attributed to environmental factors or distance effects. We isolated and sequenced twenty-three strains of P. atlantica from three geographically distant deep marine basins and performed comparative genomic analyses to study the genomic diversity of populations among these basins. Average nucleotide identity followed a strictly geographical pattern. In two out of three locations, the strains within the location exhibited >99.5% identity, whereas, among locations, the strains showed <98.11% identity. Phylogenetic and pan-genome analysis also reflected the biogeographical separation of the strains. Strains from the same location shared many accessory genes and clustered closely on the phylogenetic tree. Phenotypic diversity between populations was studied in ten out of twenty-three strains testing carbon and nitrogen source utilization and osmotolerance. A genetic basis for phenotypic diversity could be established in most cases but was apparently not influenced by local environmental conditions. Our study suggests that neutral evolution may have a substantial role in the biodiversity of P. atlantica.

The movement ecology of fishes

Movement of fishes in the aquatic realm is fundamental to their ecology and survival. Movement can be driven by a variety of biological, physiological and environmental factors occurring across all spatial and temporal scales. The intrinsic capacity of movement to impact fish individually (e.g., foraging) with potential knock-on effects throughout the ecosystem (e.g., food web dynamics) has garnered considerable interest in the field of movement ecology. The advancement of technology in recent decades, in combination with ever-growing threats to freshwater and marine systems, has further spurred empirical research and theoretical considerations. Given the rapid expansion within the field of movement ecology and its significant role in informing management and conservation efforts, a contemporary and multidisciplinary review about the various components influencing movement is outstanding. Using an established conceptual framework for movement ecology as a guide (i.e., Nathan et al., 2008: 19052), we synthesized the environmental and individual factors that affect the movement of fishes. Specifically, internal (e.g., energy acquisition, endocrinology, and homeostasis) and external (biotic and abiotic) environmental elements are discussed, as well as the different processes that influence individual-level (or population) decisions, such as navigation cues, motion capacity, propagation characteristics and group behaviours. In addition to environmental drivers and individual movement factors, we also explored how associated strategies help survival by optimizing physiological and other biological states. Next, we identified how movement ecology is increasingly being incorporated into management and conservation by highlighting the inherent benefits that spatio-temporal fish behaviour imbues into policy, regulatory, and remediation planning. Finally, we considered the future of movement ecology by evaluating ongoing technological innovations and both the challenges and opportunities that these advancements create for scientists and managers. As aquatic ecosystems continue to face alarming climate (and other human-driven) issues that impact animal movements, the comprehensive and multidisciplinary assessment of movement ecology will be instrumental in developing plans to guide research and promote sustainability measures for aquatic resources.

Assessing population genetic structure of three New Zealand stream insects using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers

Assessing genetic differentiation among natural populations can aid understanding of dispersal patterns and connectivity among habitats. Several molecular markers have become increasingly popular in determining population genetic structure for this purpose. Here, we compared the resolution of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and nuclear single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for detecting population structure among stream insects at small spatial scales. Individuals of three endemic taxa - Coloburiscus humeralis (Ephemeroptera), Zelandobius confusus (Plecoptera), and Hydropsyche fimbriata (Trichoptera) - were collected from forested streams that flow across open pasture in the North Island of New Zealand. Both COI and SNP data indicated limited population structure across the study area, and small differences observed among these species were likely related to their putative dispersal abilities. For example, fine-scale genetic differentiation between and among neighbouring stream populations for H. fimbriata suggests that gene flow, and hence dispersal, may be more limited for this species relative to the others. Based on the generally similar results provided by both types of markers, we suggest that either COI or SNP markers can provide suitable initial estimates of fine-scale population genetic differentiation in stream insects.

Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands: The role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 × 250 m2) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.

Response of small mammal species to landscape metrics in a highly fragmented area in the Atlantic forest of southern Brazil

The high rate of destruction of natural habitats has diminished fragments size, which negatively impacts small mammal community species richness and composition. We investigated the abundance of small non-flying mammal species in association with three landscape metrics: the size of the fragment (AREA); the shape index of the fragment (SHAPE); and the size of the central area of the fragment (CORE) in six forest fragments in a highly fragmented landscape of southern Brazil. Three rodent species (Akodon montensis, Oligoryzomys nigripes, Sooretamys angouya) and one marsupial species (Gracilinanus microtarsus) were captured in total. We used generalized linear models to test the influence of the landscape metrics on the abundance of the three most abundant species of small mammals captured (A. montensis, O. nigripes and S. angouya). Among the three species analyzed, A. montensis presented a significant negative association with the metric CORE; O. nigripes and S. angouya presented a positive association with the metric AREA and negative with the metric CORE. The negative association of A. montensis, O. nigripes and S. angouya with the core area of the fragments, and the absence of association of all species with the shape of the fragments indicate that these species might benefit from the effects of habitat fragmentation.

Estimating dispersal using close kin dyads: The kindisperse R package

Investigating dispersal in animal populations can be difficult, particularly for taxa that are hard to directly observe such as those that are small or rare. A promising solution may come from new approaches that use genome-wide sequence data to detect close kin dyads and estimate dispersal parameters from the distribution of these dyads. These methods have so far only been applied to mosquito populations. However, they should have broad applicability to a range of taxa, although no assessment has yet been made on their performance under different dispersal conditions and study designs. Here we develop an R package and shiny app, kindisperse, that can be used to estimate dispersal parameters from the spatial distribution of close kin. kindisperse can handle study designs that target different life stages and allows for a range of dispersal kernel shapes and organismal life histories; we provide implementation examples for a vertebrate (Antechinus) and an invertebrate (Aedes). We use simulations run in kindisperse to compare the performance of two published close kin methodologies, showing that one method produces unbiased estimates whereas the other produces downward-biased estimates. We also use kindisperse simulations to investigate how study design affects dispersal estimates, and we provide guidelines for the size and shape of sample sites as well as the number of close kin needed for accurate estimates. kindisperse is easily adaptable for application to a variety of research contexts ranging from invasive pests to threatened species where noninvasive DNA sampling can be used to detect close kin.

Dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation: An integrative case study of genetic assignment calibrated with ecological data and pedigree information

Dispersal has a crucial role determining ecoevolutionary dynamics through both gene flow and population size regulation. However, to study dispersal and its consequences, one must distinguish immigrants from residents. Dispersers can be identified using telemetry, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods, or genetic assignment methods. All of these methods have disadvantages, such as high costs and substantial field efforts needed for telemetry and CMR surveys, and adequate genetic distance required in genetic assignment. In this study, we used genome-wide 200K Single Nucleotide Polymorphism data and two different genetic assignment approaches (GSI_SIM, Bayesian framework; BONE, network-based estimation) to identify the dispersers in a house sparrow (Passer domesticus) metapopulation sampled over 16 years. Our results showed higher assignment accuracy with BONE. Hence, we proceeded to diagnose potential sources of errors in the assignment results from the BONE method due to variation in levels of interpopulation genetic differentiation, intrapopulation genetic variation and sample size. We show that assignment accuracy is high even at low levels of genetic differentiation and that it increases with the proportion of a population that has been sampled. Finally, we highlight that dispersal studies integrating both ecological and genetic data provide robust assessments of the dispersal patterns in natural populations.

Phenotypic and environmental correlates of natal dispersal in a long-lived territorial vulture

Natal dispersal, the movement between the birth and the first breeding site, has been rarely studied in long-lived territorial birds with a long-lasting pre-breeding stage. Here we benefited from the long-term monitoring programs of six populations of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) from Spain and France to study how the rearing environment determines dispersal. For 124 vultures, we recorded a median dispersal distance of 48 km (range 0-656 km). Linear models were used to assess the effect of population and individual traits on dispersal distance at two spatial scales. Dispersal distances were inversely related to vulture density in the natal population, suggesting that birds perceive the abundance of conspecifics as a signal of habitat quality. This was particularly true for declining populations, so increasing levels of opportunistic philopatry seemed to arise in high density contexts as a consequence of vacancies created by human-induced adult mortality. Females dispersed further than males, but males were more sensitive to the social environment, indicating different dispersal tactics. Both sexes were affected by different individual attributes simultaneously and interactively with this social context. These results highlight that complex phenotype-by-environment interactions should be considered for advancing our understanding of dispersal dynamics in long-lived organisms.

Genetic analysis indicates spatial-dependent patterns of sex-biased dispersal in Eurasian lynx in Finland

Conservation and management of large carnivores requires knowledge of female and male dispersal. Such information is crucial to evaluate the population's status and thus management actions. This knowledge is challenging to obtain, often incomplete and contradictory at times. The size of the target population and the methods applied can bias the results. Also, population history and biological or environmental influences can affect dispersal on different scales within a study area. We have genotyped Eurasian lynx (180 males and 102 females, collected 2003-2017) continuously distributed in southern Finland (~23,000 km2) using 21 short tandem repeats (STR) loci and compared statistical genetic tests to infer local and sex-specific dispersal patterns within and across genetic clusters as well as geographic regions. We tested for sex-specific substructure with individual-based Bayesian assignment tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Differences between the sexes in genetic differentiation, relatedness, inbreeding, and diversity were analysed using population-based AMOVA, F-statistics, and assignment indices. Our results showed two different genetic clusters that were spatially structured for females but admixed for males. Similarly, spatial autocorrelation and relatedness was significantly higher in females than males. However, we found weaker sex-specific patterns for the Eurasian lynx when the data were separated in three geographical regions than when divided in the two genetic clusters. Overall, our results suggest male-biased dispersal and female philopatry for the Eurasian lynx in Southern Finland. The female genetic structuring increased from west to east within our study area. In addition, detection of male-biased dispersal was dependent on analytical methods utilized, on whether subtle underlying genetic structuring was considered or not, and the choice of population delineation. Conclusively, we suggest using multiple genetic approaches to study sex-biased dispersal in a continuously distributed species in which population delineation is difficult.

Dispersal patterns of a recovering brown bear (Ursus arctos) population in a human-dominated landscape

Despite increasing habitat fragmentation, large carnivore populations in parts of Europe have been recovering and expanding into human-dominated areas. Knowledge of animal dispersal patterns in such areas is important for their conservation, management, and coexistence with humans. We used genetic data based on 15 microsatellite markers from 312 individuals (98 females, 214 males) to assess kinship and dispersal patterns during the recovery and spatial expansion of a wild brown bear (Ursus arctos) population (2003–2010) in the human-dominated landscape of Greece. We hypothesized that bear dispersal in Greece was sex-biased, with females being more philopatric and males dispersing more frequently and over greater distances. Dispersal indeed was sex-biased, with males dispersing more frequently and farther than females. Overall, females were found to be philopatric; males also appeared to be philopatric, but to a lesser degree. However, a high proportion of females displayed dispersal behavior, which may be indicative of a pre-saturation stage of the population in that part of the country. Our results indicate that dispersal may be due to evading competition and avoiding inbreeding. We also documented long-distance dispersal of bears, which is considered to be indicative of a spatially expanding population. Our results highlight the value of using noninvasive genetic monitoring data to assess kinship among individuals and study dispersal patterns in human-dominated landscapes. Brown bears remain threatened in Greece; we therefore recommend systematic genetic monitoring of the species in combination with careful habitat management to protect suitable habitat (i.e., dispersal corridors) and ultimately ensure co-existence with humans and survival of brown bears in the country.

Weather variation affects the dispersal of grasshoppers beyond their elevational ranges

Understanding how abiotic conditions influence dispersal patterns of organisms is important for understanding the degree to which species can track and persist in the face of changing climate.The goal of this study was to understand how weather conditions influence the dispersal pattern of multiple nonmigratory grasshopper species from lower elevation grassland habitats in which they complete their life-cycles to higher elevations that extend beyond their range limits.Using over a decade of weekly spring to late-summer field survey data along an elevational gradient, we explored how abundance and richness of dispersing grasshoppers were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. We also examined how changes in population sizes at lower elevations might influence these patterns.We observed that the abundance of dispersing grasshoppers along the gradient declined 4-fold from the foothills to the subalpine and increased with warmer conditions and when wind flow patterns were mild or in the downslope direction. Thirty-eight unique grasshopper species from lowland sites were detected as dispersers across the survey years, and warmer years and weak upslope wind conditions also increased the richness of these grasshoppers. The pattern of grasshoppers along the gradient was not sex biased. The positive effect of temperature on dispersal rates was likely explained by an increase in dispersal propensity rather than by an increase in the density of grasshoppers at low elevation sites.The results of this study support the hypothesis that the dispersal patterns of organisms are influenced by changing climatic conditions themselves and as such, that this context-dependent dispersal response should be considered when modeling and forecasting the ability of species to respond to climate change.

The rescue effect and inference from isolation-extinction relationships

The rescue effect in metapopulations hypothesises that less isolated patches are unlikely to go extinct because recolonisation may occur between breeding seasons ('recolonisation rescue'), or immigrants may sufficiently bolster population size to prevent extinction altogether ('demographic rescue'). These mechanisms have rarely been demonstrated directly, and most evidence of the rescue effect is from relationships between isolation and extinction. We determined the frequency of recolonisation rescue for metapopulations of black rails (Laterallus jamaicensis) and Virginia rails (Rallus limicola) from occupancy surveys conducted during and between breeding seasons, and assessed the reliability of inferences about the occurrence of rescue drawn from isolation-extinction relationships, including autologistic isolation measures that corrected for unsurveyed patches and imperfect detection. Recolonisation rescue occurred at expected rates, but was elevated during periods of disturbance that resulted in non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics. Inferences from extinction-isolation relationships were unreliable, particularly for autologistic measures and for the more vagile Virginia rail.

Downhill seed dispersal by temperate mammals: a potential threat to plant escape from global warming

Vertical seed dispersal, i.e. seed dispersal towards a higher or lower altitude, is considered a critical process for plant escape from climate change. However, studies exploring vertical seed dispersal are scarce, and thus, its direction, frequency, and mechanisms are little known. In the temperate zone, evaluating vertical seed dispersal of animal-dispersed plants fruiting in autumn and/or winter is essential considering the dominance of such plants in temperate forests. We hypothesized that their seeds are dispersed towards lower altitudes because of the downhill movement of frugivorous animals following the autumn-to-winter phenology of their food plants which proceeds from the mountain tops to the foot in the temperate zone. We evaluated the vertical seed dispersal of the autumn-fruiting wild kiwi, Actinidia arguta, which is dispersed by temperate mammals. We collected dispersed seeds from mammal faeces in the Kanto Mountains of central Japan and estimated the distance of vertical seed dispersal using the oxygen isotope ratios of the dispersed seeds. We found the intensive downhill seed dispersal of wild kiwi by all seed dispersers, except the raccoon dog (bear: mean −393.1 m; marten: −245.3 m; macaque: −98.5 m; and raccoon dog: +4.5 m). Mammals with larger home ranges dispersed seeds longer towards the foot of the mountains. Furthermore, we found that seeds produced at higher altitudes were dispersed a greater distance towards the foot of the mountains. Altitudinal gradients in autumn-to-winter plant phenology and other mountain characteristics, i.e. larger surface areas and more attractive human crops at lower altitudes compared to higher altitudes, were considered drivers of downhill seed dispersal via animal movement. Strong downhill seed dispersal by mammals suggests that populations of autumn-to-winter fruiting plants dispersed by animals may not be able to sufficiently escape from current global warming in the temperate zone.

Managing uncertainty in movement knowledge for environmental decisions

Species' movements affect their response to environmental change but movement knowledge is often highly uncertain. We now have well-established methods to integrate movement knowledge into conservation practice but still lack a framework to deal with uncertainty in movement knowledge for environmental decisions. We provide a framework that distinguishes two dimensions of species' movement that are heavily influenced by uncertainty: knowledge about movement and relevance of movement to environmental decisions. Management decisions can be informed by their position in this knowledge-relevance space. We then outline a framework to support decisions around (1) increasing understanding of the relevance of movement knowledge, (2) increasing robustness of decisions to uncertainties and (3) improving knowledge on species' movement. Our decision-support framework provides guidance for managing movement-related uncertainty in systematic conservation planning, agri-environment schemes, habitat restoration and international biodiversity policy. It caters to different resource levels (time and funding) so that species' movement knowledge can be more effectively integrated into environmental decisions.

Dispersal ecology of deadwood organisms and connectivity conservation

Limited knowledge of dispersal for most organisms hampers effective connectivity conservation in fragmented landscapes. In forest ecosystems, deadwood-dependent organisms (i.e., saproxylics) are negatively affected by forest management and degradation globally. We reviewed empirically established dispersal ecology of saproxylic insects and fungi. We focused on direct studies (e.g., mark-recapture, radiotelemetry), field experiments, and population genetic analyses. We found 2 somewhat opposite results. Based on direct methods and experiments, dispersal is limited to within a few kilometers, whereas genetic studies showed little genetic structure over tens of kilometers, which indicates long-distance dispersal. The extent of direct dispersal studies and field experiments was small and thus these studies could not have detected long-distance dispersal. Particularly for fungi, more studies at management-relevant scales (1-10 km) are needed. Genetic researchers used outdated markers, investigated few loci, and faced the inherent difficulties of inferring dispersal from genetic population structure. Although there were systematic and species-specific differences in dispersal ability (fungi are better dispersers than insects), it seems that for both groups colonization and establishment, not dispersal per se, are limiting their occurrence at management-relevant scales. Because most studies were on forest landscapes in Europe, particularly the boreal region, more data are needed from nonforested landscapes in which fragmentation effects are likely to be more pronounced. Given the potential for long-distance dispersal and the logical necessity of habitat area being a more fundamental landscape attribute than the spatial arrangement of habitat patches (i.e., connectivity sensu strict), retaining high-quality deadwood habitat is more important for saproxylic insects and fungi than explicit connectivity conservation in many cases.

Disrupted dispersal and its genetic consequences: Comparing protected and threatened baboon populations (Papio papio) in West Africa

Dispersal is a demographic process that can potentially counterbalance the negative impacts of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. However, mechanisms of dispersal may become modified in populations living in human-dominated habitats. Here, we investigated dispersal in Guinea baboons (Papio papio) in areas with contrasting levels of anthropogenic fragmentation, as a case study. Using molecular data, we compared the direction and extent of sex-biased gene flow in two baboon populations: from Guinea-Bissau (GB, fragmented distribution, human-dominated habitat) and Senegal (SEN, continuous distribution, protected area). Individual-based Bayesian clustering, spatial autocorrelation, assignment tests and migrant identification suggested female-mediated gene flow at a large spatial scale for GB with evidence of contact between genetically differentiated males at one locality, which could be interpreted as male-mediated gene flow in southern GB. Gene flow was also found to be female-biased in SEN for a smaller scale. However, in the southwest coastal part of GB, at the same geographic scale as SEN, no sex-biased dispersal was detected and a modest or recent restriction in GB female dispersal seems to have occurred. This population-specific variation in dispersal is attributed to behavioural responses to human activity in GB. Our study highlights the importance of considering the genetic consequences of disrupted dispersal patterns as an additional impact of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and is potentially relevant to the conservation of many species inhabiting human-dominated environments.

Taxonomic bias in biodiversity data and societal preferences

Studying and protecting each and every living species on Earth is a major challenge of the 21^st century. Yet, most species remain unknown or unstudied, while others attract most of the public, scientific and government attention. Although known to be detrimental, this taxonomic bias continues to be pervasive in the scientific literature, but is still poorly studied and understood. Here, we used 626 million occurrences from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the biggest biodiversity data portal, to characterize the taxonomic bias in biodiversity data. We also investigated how societal preferences and taxonomic research relate to biodiversity data gathering. For each species belonging to 24 taxonomic classes, we used the number of publications from Web of Science and the number of web pages from Bing searches to approximate research activity and societal preferences. Our results show that societal preferences, rather than research activity, strongly correlate with taxonomic bias, which lead us to assert that scientists should advertise less charismatic species and develop societal initiatives (e.g. citizen science) that specifically target neglected organisms. Ensuring that biodiversity is representatively sampled while this is still possible is an urgent prerequisite for achieving efficient conservation plans and a global understanding of our surrounding environment.

Sex-specific genetic analysis indicates low correlation between demographic and genetic connectivity in the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos)

The degree of gene flow within and among populations, i.e. genetic population connectivity, may closely track demographic population connectivity. Alternatively, the rate of gene flow may change relative to the rate of dispersal. In this study, we explored the relationship between genetic and demographic population connectivity using the Scandinavian brown bear as model species, due to its pronounced male dispersal and female philopatry. Thus, we expected that females would shape genetic structure locally, whereas males would act as genetic mediators among regions. To test this, we used eight validated microsatellite markers on 1531 individuals sampled noninvasively during country-wide genetic population monitoring in Sweden and Norway from 2006 to 2013. First, we determined sex-specific genetic structure and substructure across the study area. Second, we compared genetic differentiation, migration/gene flow patterns, and spatial autocorrelation results between the sexes both within and among genetic clusters and geographic regions. Our results indicated that demographic connectivity was not a reliable indicator of genetic connectivity. Among regions, we found no consistent difference in long-term gene flow and estimated current migration rates between males and females. Within regions/genetic clusters, only females consistently displayed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating male-biased small-scale dispersal. In one cluster, however, males showed a dispersal pattern similar to females. The Scandinavian brown bear population has experienced substantial recovery over the last decades; however, our results did not show any changes in its large-scale population structure compared to previous studies, suggesting that an increase in population size and dispersal of individuals does not necessary lead to increased genetic connectivity. Thus, we conclude that both genetic and demographic connectivity should be estimated, so as not to make false assumptions about the reality of wildlife populations.

Role of breeding and natal movements in lifetime dispersal of a forest-dwelling rodent

The lifetime movements of an individual determine the gene flow and invasion potential of the species. However, sex dependence of dispersal and selective pressures driving dispersal have gained much more attention than dispersal at different life and age stages. Natal dispersal is more common than dispersal between breeding attempts, but breeding dispersal may be promoted by resource availability and competition. Here, we utilize mark–recapture data on the nest‐box population of Siberian flying squirrels to analyze lifetime dispersal patterns. Natal dispersal means the distance between the natal nest and the nest used the following year, whereas breeding movements refer to the nest site changes between breeding attempts. The movement distances observed here were comparable to distances reported earlier from radio‐telemetry studies. Breeding movements did not contribute to lifetime dispersal distance and were not related to variation in food abundance or habitat patch size. Breeding movements of males were negatively, albeit not strongly, related to male population size. In females, breeding movement activity was low and was not related to previous breeding success or to competition between females for territories. Natal philopatry was linked to apparent death of a mother; that is, we did not find evidence for mothers bequeathing territories for offspring, like observed in some other rodent species. Our results give an example of a species in which breeding movements are not driven by environmental variability or nest site quality. Different evolutionary forces often operate in natal and breeding movements, and our study supports the view that juveniles are responsible for redistributing individuals within and between populations. This emphasizes the importance of knowledge on natal dispersal, if we want to understand consequences of movement ecology of the species at the population level.

Immigration ensures population survival in the Siberian flying squirrel

Linking dispersal to population growth remains a challenging task and is a major knowledge gap, for example, for conservation management. We studied relative roles of different demographic rates behind population growth in Siberian flying squirrels in two nest-box breeding populations in western Finland. Adults and offspring were captured and individually identifiable. We constructed an integrated population model, which estimated all relevant annual demographic rates (birth, local [apparent] survival, and immigration) as well as population growth rates. One population (studied 2002-2014) fluctuated around a steady-state equilibrium, whereas the other (studied 1995-2014) showed a numerical decline. Immigration was the demographic rate which showed clear correlations to annual population growth rates in both populations. Population growth rate was density dependent in both populations. None of the demographic rates nor the population growth rate correlated across the two study populations, despite their proximity suggesting that factors regulating the dynamics are determined locally. We conclude that flying squirrels may persist in a network of uncoupled subpopulations, where movement between subpopulations is of critical importance. Our study supports the view that dispersal has the key role in population survival of a small forest rodent.

Assessing bias and knowledge gaps on seed ecology research: implications for conservation agenda and policy

Sampling biases permeate ecological research and result in knowledge gaps that have vital consequences for conservation planning. The consequences of knowledge gaps on species identity and distribution (the Wallacean and Linnean shortfalls, respectively) have become apparent recently, but we know little about the extent that research biases and knowledge gaps on traits that influence species' niches (the Hutchinsonian shortfall) affect conservation policy. To examine whether knowledge of species' traits based on seed ecology is geographically, phylogenetically, and ecologically biased, we retrieved research data on seed germination, seed dormancy, seed dispersal, seed banks, seed predation, and seed removal from a database of 847 papers, 1648 species, and 5322 cases. Brazil was selected as a model system for megadiverse, undersampled countries. Kernel density maps showed that research was geographically biased towards highly populated sites, with vast areas remaining historically unexplored. We also show that research was clustered into protected areas. We detected a significant positive phylogenetic bias at genus-level, indicating research concentration in few genera and lower relative bias rates for many herbaceous genera. Unexpectedly, information on seed banking was available for only 74 (3.4%) of threatened species, which suggests that information deficits are highest for species with critical needs for ex situ conservation strategies. Tree, fleshy-fruited, and biotic dispersal species were disproportionately overstudied. Our data indicate that information deficits on seed ecology preclude our ability to effectively restore ecosystems and to safeguard endangered species. We call for a systematic improvement of environmental agenda in which policy makers and scientists target sites, clades, and functional groups historically neglected. Lessons from developed countries and collaborative efforts will be important for megadiverse, underdeveloped countries to achieve the targets of international agreements that depend on seed ecology knowledge aiming to secure biological diversity and ecosystem services.

Dispersal similarly shapes both population genetics and community patterns in the marine realm

Dispersal plays a key role to connect populations and, if limited, is one of the main processes to maintain and generate regional biodiversity. According to neutral theories of molecular evolution and biodiversity, dispersal limitation of propagules and population stochasticity are integral to shaping both genetic and community structure. We conducted a parallel analysis of biological connectivity at genetic and community levels in marine groups with different dispersal traits. We compiled large data sets of population genetic structure (98 benthic macroinvertebrate and 35 planktonic species) and biogeographic data (2193 benthic macroinvertebrate and 734 planktonic species). We estimated dispersal distances from population genetic data (i.e., FST vs. geographic distance) and from β-diversity at the community level. Dispersal distances ranked the biological groups in the same order at both genetic and community levels, as predicted by organism dispersal ability and seascape connectivity: macrozoobenthic species without dispersing larvae, followed by macrozoobenthic species with dispersing larvae and plankton (phyto- and zooplankton). This ranking order is associated with constraints to the movement of macrozoobenthos within the seabed compared with the pelagic habitat. We showed that dispersal limitation similarly determines the connectivity degree of communities and populations, supporting the predictions of neutral theories in marine biodiversity patterns.