Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus

Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.

Satellite imagery characterizes local animal reservoir populations of Sin Nombre virus in the southwestern United States

The relationship between the risk of hantaviral pulmonary syndrome (HPS), as estimated from satellite imagery, and local rodent populations was examined. HPS risk, predicted before rodent sampling, was highly associated with the abundance of Peromyscus maniculatus, the reservoir of Sin Nombre virus (SNV). P. maniculatus were common in high-risk sites, and populations in high-risk areas were skewed toward adult males, the subclass most frequently infected with SNV. In the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), captures of P. maniculatus increased only in high-risk areas. During 1998, few sites had infected mice, but by 1999, 1820 of the high-risk sites contained infected mice and the crude prevalence was 30.8%. Only 118 of the low-risk sites contained infected rodents, and the prevalence of infection was lower (8.3%). Satellite imagery identified environmental features associated with SNV transmission within its reservoir population, but at least 2 years of high-risk conditions were needed for SNV to reach high prevalence. Areas with persistently high-risk environmental conditions may serve as refugia for the survival of SNV in local mouse populations.

Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

Statistical sensitivity for detection of spatial and temporal patterns in rodent population densities

A long-term monitoring program begun 1 year after the epidemic of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the U.S. Southwest tracked rodent density changes through time and among sites and related these changes to hantavirus infection rates in various small-mammal reservoir species and human disease outbreaks. We assessed the statistical sensitivity of the program's field design and tested for potential biases in population estimates due to unintended deaths of rodents. Analyzing data from two sites in New Mexico from 1994 to 1998, we found that for many species of Peromyscus, Reithrodontomys, Neotoma, Dipodomys, and Perognathus, the monitoring program detected species-specific spatial and temporal differences in rodent densities; trap-related deaths did not significantly affect long-term population estimates. The program also detected a short-term increase in rodent densities in the winter of 1997-98, demonstrating its usefulness in identifying conditions conducive to increased risk for human disease.

Small mammal survival and trapability in mark-recapture monitoring programs for hantavirus

Following the 1993 hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) epidemic in the south-western United States, mammalogists and epidemiologists instituted long-term studies to monitor population density and prevalence of infection in rodents which constitute the reservoir for Sin Nombre virus (SNV). In this study, field techniques used in sampling small mammals for SNV infection were evaluated to determine if trapping and handling protocols were having significant effects on future trapability or mortality of animals. We compared rodent mark-recapture control plots, on which all rodents were simply measured, marked, and released on site, with experimental plots on which all animals were anesthetized with methoxyflurane, sampled for blood and saliva, measured, marked, and released. Blood samples were obtained from anesthetized animals on the experimental plots via a retro-orbital sinus puncture using a heparinized capillary tube. Dacron tipped oral swabs were used to collect buccal cells and saliva from the rodent's oral cavity. Field data were collected monthly from August 1994 to August 1996 at two sites in New Mexico (USA). Analyses were based on 3,661 captures of 1,513 individuals representing 21 species from three rodent families (Rodentia: Muridae, Heteromyidae, Sciuridae) and two species of rabbits (Lagomorpha: Leporidae). Overall, for most murid rodents (including five Peromyscus spp., Neotoma albigula, and Onychomys leucogaster) and one rabbit species (Sylvilagus floridanus), the handling/bleeding procedures had no significant effects on recapture rates or mortality. In contrast, several species of heteromyids (Dipodomys ordii and Perognathus flavus), one murid (Reithrodontomys megalotis) and one leporid (S. auduboni) suffered higher mortality rates, and heteromyid kangaroo rats (D. ordii and D. merriami) exhibited lower trapability as a result of the anesthesia and sampling procedures. In view of the overall non-significant influence of the sampling procedures on murid rodents, the anesthesia and blood/saliva sampling protocols described herein appear to be appropriate for hantavirus research, and may serve as a model for environmental monitoring of other zoonotic agents and their reservoirs.

Contraceptive and reproductive risks for cervical dysplasia in southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women

BACKGROUND

Various contraceptive practices and reproductive factors have been associated with cervical neoplasia in case-control studies worldwide.

METHODS

To investigate contraceptive and reproductive risk factors associated with high-grade cervical dysplasia in southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women, we carried out a clinic-based case-control study among university-affiliated clinic attendees.

RESULTS

Oral contraceptive use ever (odds ratio [OR] = 0.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2-0.9) and past diaphragm use (OR = 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.8) were protective for dysplasia in analyses adjusted for age, ethnicity, sexual behaviour, and for cervical papillomavirus (HPV) infection. After further adjustment for Pap smear screening interval, oral contraceptive use ever remained protective for dysplasia. Vaginal deliveries were strongly associated with dysplasia with > 2 vaginal deliveries associated with a 3.9-fold increase in risk after adjustment for age, ethnicity, sexual behaviour, and HPV infection. Using logistic regression models to simultaneously control for effects of multiple factors as potentially related to cervical dysplasia, we found low educational attainment, cervical HPV infection, cigarette smoking, history of any sexually transmitted disease, and having one or more vaginal deliveries to be associated with dysplasia; oral contraceptive use and past diaphragm use also remained protective for high-grade cervical dysplasia in these regression analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The data suggest that use of oral contraceptives (ever) and past diaphragm use are protective for high-grade cervical dysplasia among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women in New Mexico. The clinic-based perspective of this research (versus population-based studies) may help explain some of these findings.

Sexually transmitted diseases and other risk factors for cervical dysplasia among southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women

OBJECTIVE

To assess risk factors for high-grade cervical dysplasia among southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women.

DESIGN

Clinic-based case-control study.

SETTING

University-affiliated gynecology clinics.

SUBJECTS

Cases were Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women with biopsy-proven high-grade cervical dysplasia (n = 201). Controls were Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women from the same clinics with normal cervical epithelium (n = 337).

METHODS

Study design included interviews focused on histories of sexually transmitted diseases, sexual behavior, reproductive histories, hygienic practices, contraceptive use, cigarette smoking, and diet. Laboratory studies included bacterial and protozoal cultures of the cervix; hybridization tests to identify human papillomavirus (HPV) genome with commercial (ViraPap and ViraType) and polymerase chain reaction-based assays; and serum antibody tests for herpes simplex virus, Chlamydia trachomatis, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C.

RESULTS

For both ethnic groups combined, after adjustment for ethnicity, age, and sexual behavior, the strongest risks for cervical dysplasia were associated with cervical HPV infection as identified by ViraPap (odds ratio [OR], 12.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.2 to 20.0) or with polymerase chain reaction (OR, 20.8; 95% CI, 10.8 to 40.2). Other factors associated with dysplasia included cigarette smoking at the time of diagnosis (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.8); low income (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.0); low educational level (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 3.4 to 11.1); history of any sexually transmitted disease (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.7); and seroprevalence of antibodies to hepatitis B (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.9 to 3.5). For Hispanic women, HPV 16/18 identified by ViraType was strongly associated with cervical dysplasia (OR, 171.0; 95% CI, 22.8 to 1280.5). Antibodies to herpes simplex virus type 2 were not associated with dysplasia in Hispanic women but were significantly associated with dysplasia among non-Hispanic whites. Risks associated with cigarette smoking also varied by ethnic group.

CONCLUSIONS

The strongest risk factor associated with high-grade cervical dysplasia among clinic attendees was HPV infection. Although most of the risk factors we examined showed similar associations for dysplasia for both ethnic groups, our data suggest that several different risk factors may be relevant to the development of cervical dysplasia in Hispanics compared with non-Hispanic whites who attend the same clinics.

Cigarette smoking and other risk factors for cervical dysplasia in southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women

To assess smoking-related and other risk factors for high-grade cervical dysplasia in southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women in New Mexico, we conducted a clinic-based case-control study among attendees at university-affiliated gynecology clinics. We collected data on cigarette use, sexual behavior, past and current sexually transmitted diseases, hygienic practices, contraception, and diet. For both ethnic groups combined, after adjustment for the effects of human papillomavirus, sexual behavior, and other risk factors, cigarette smoking at the time of diagnosis was associated with high-grade dysplasia (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence limits, 1.0-2.8). In contrast, former smoking was not associated with cervical dysplasia (odds ratio 0.9; 95% confidence limits, 0.5-1.5). Analyses showed dose-response relationships for the amount of cigarettes smoked per day and for cumulative exposure (pack-years of use) in association with cervical dysplasia. Although our study lacked the power to show statistically significant ethnic differences in smoking-related risks for dysplasia, smoking at the time of diagnosis, high pack-years of use, and smoking at the time of menarche were associated with dysplasia only for non-Hispanic white versus Hispanic women. Our data support hypotheses that implicate cigarette use as an etiological factor in the development of high-grade cervical dysplasia and suggest ethnic differences in risks for dysplasia among women attending the same clinics.

Risk factors for cervical dysplasia in southwestern American Indian women: a pilot study

Cervical cancer and cervical dysplasia occur at high rates among American Indian women in the southwestern United States. Few published data, however, have addressed risk factors for the development of cervical neoplasia among southwestern American Indian women. To investigate risk factors for cervical dysplasia in this population, we carried out a case-control pilot study focused on the effects of sexually transmitted diseases, sexual behavior, hygienic practices, cigarette use, contraceptive techniques, and diet in the development of cervical dysplasia. Although our pilot study lacked power to clearly identify risk factors for neoplasia, the data suggest that cervical papillomavirus infection (crude odds ratio 4.72, 95% confidence interval 1.62-14.11), vaginal deliveries (3.70, 0.69-20.04 for > 2 vaginal deliveries vs none), and current cigarette smoking (3.08, 0.50-24.15) were associated with dysplasia. These preliminary findings indicate that risk factors for dysplasia in American Indian women differ from risks which we have identified in southwestern Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women, and suggest the need for further investigation of ethnic differences in cervical disease development.

Determinants of genital human papillomavirus infection among cytologically normal women attending the University of New Mexico student health center

OBJECTIVES

To confirm the risk factors for genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection.

GOAL OF THIS STUDY

To investigate risk factors for HPV detection apart from the correlated risk factors for cervical neoplasia.

STUDY DESIGN

Cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA was assessed in 357 cytologically normal women attending the University of New Mexico student health center. Cervical swab samples were obtained for HPV DNA detection and typing using a PCR-based DNA amplification system. Possible determinants of cervical HPV were examined including age, ethnicity, history of sexually transmitted disease, oral contraceptive use, smoking, age at first intercourse, lifetime number of sex partners, marital status, and history of pregnancy.

RESULTS

A 44.3% overall prevalence of cervical HPV was observed. On univariate analysis, factors associated with increasing HPV prevalence included higher lifetime number of sex partners and single marital status. After adjustment for potential confounding variables, we found that HPV prevalence increased with higher lifetime number of sexual partners.

CONCLUSION

These findings, along with those from the companion reports in this issue of the journal, support the sexual route of transmission of the virus.