Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Commonality and variation in mental representations of music revealed by a cross-cultural comparison of rhythm priors in 15 countries

Music is present in every known society but varies from place to place. What, if anything, is universal to music cognition? We measured a signature of mental representations of rhythm in 39 participant groups in 15 countries, spanning urban societies and Indigenous populations. Listeners reproduced random 'seed' rhythms; their reproductions were fed back as the stimulus (as in the game of 'telephone'), such that their biases (the prior) could be estimated from the distribution of reproductions. Every tested group showed a sparse prior with peaks at integer-ratio rhythms. However, the importance of different integer ratios varied across groups, often reflecting local musical practices. Our results suggest a common feature of music cognition: discrete rhythm 'categories' at small-integer ratios. These discrete representations plausibly stabilize musical systems in the face of cultural transmission but interact with culture-specific traditions to yield the diversity that is evident when mental representations are probed across many cultures.

Costs-effectiveness and cost components of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions affecting antibiotic resistance outcomes in hospital patients: a systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Limited information on costs and the cost-effectiveness of hospital interventions to reduce antibiotic resistance (ABR) hinder efficient resource allocation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review for studies evaluating the costs and cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at reducing, monitoring and controlling ABR in patients. Articles published until 12 December 2023 were explored using EconLit, EMBASE and PubMed. We focused on critical or high-priority bacteria, as defined by the WHO, and intervention costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we extracted unit costs, ICERs and essential study information including country, intervention, bacteria-drug combination, discount rates, type of model and outcomes. Costs were reported in 2022 US dollars ($), adopting the healthcare system perspective. Country willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds from Woods et al 2016 guided cost-effectiveness assessments. We assessed the studies reporting checklist using Drummond's method.

RESULTS

Among 20 958 articles, 59 (32 pharmaceutical and 27 non-pharmaceutical interventions) met the inclusion criteria. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as hygiene measures, had unit costs as low as $1 per patient, contrasting with generally higher pharmaceutical intervention costs. Several studies found that linezolid-based treatments for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus were cost-effective compared with vancomycin (ICER up to $21 488 per treatment success, all 16 studies' ICERs

CONCLUSION

Robust information on ABR interventions is critical for efficient resource allocation. We highlight cost-effective strategies for mitigating ABR in hospitals, emphasising substantial knowledge gaps, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. Our study serves as a resource for guiding future cost-effectiveness study design and analyses.PROSPERO registration number CRD42020341827 and CRD42022340064.

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Key Words

• Control strategies
• Infections, diseases, disorders, injuries
• Prevention strategies
• Public Health
• Systematic review

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus
• Checklist
• Drug Resistance, Microbial
• Hospitals
• Pharmaceutical Preparations

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Grants

• FONDECYT
• Asociación Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID)
• Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo ANID/FONDAP CIGIDEN
• National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit

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Affiliation(s)

Kasim Allel Disease Control Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK Department of Health and Community Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
María José Hernández-Leal Department of Community, Maternity and Paediatric Nursing, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain Millennium Nucleus on Sociomedicine, Santiago, Chile
Nichola R Naylor Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK HCAI, Fungal, AMR, AMU & Sepsis Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK
Eduardo A Undurraga Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile CIFAR Azrieli Global Scholars program, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Gerard Joseph Abou Jaoude Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
Priyanka Bhandari Disease Control Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
Ellen Flanagan Disease Control Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
Hassan Haghparast-Bidgoli Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
Koen B Pouwels Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK The National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Laith Yakob Disease Control Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK

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Time to rethink academic publishing: the peer reviewer crisis

There is concern that the time taken to publish academic papers in microbiological science has significantly increased in recent years. While the data do not specifically support this, evidence suggests that editors are having to invite more and more reviewers to identify those willing to perform peer review.

Enrollment of dengue patients in a prospective cohort study in Umphang District, Thailand, during the COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for research and policy

Background and Aims

Dengue is endemic in Thailand and imposes a high burden on the health system and society. We conducted a prospective cohort study in Umphang District, Tak Province, Thailand, to investigate the share of dengue cases with long symptoms and their duration. Here we present the results of the enrollment process during the COVID-19 pandemic with implications and challenges for research and policy.

Methods

In a prospective cohort study conducted in Umphang District, Thailand, we examined the prevalence of persistent symptoms in dengue cases. Clinically diagnosed cases were offered free laboratory testing, We enrolled ambulatory dengue patients regardless of age who were confirmed through a highly sensitive laboratory strategy (positive NS1 and/or IgM), agreed to follow-up visits, and gave informed consent. We used multivariate logistic regressions to assess the probability of clinical dengue being laboratory confirmed. To determine the factors associated with study enrollment, we analyzed the relationship of patient characteristics and month of screening to the likelihood of participation. To identify underrepresented groups, we compared the enrolled cohort to external data sources.

Results

The 150 clinical cases ranged from 1 to 85 years old. Most clinical cases (78%) were confirmed by a positive laboratory test, but only 19% of those confirmed enrolled in the cohort study. Women, who were half as likely to enroll as men, were underrepresented in the cohort.

Conclusions

The Thai physicians' clinical diagnoses at this rural district hospital had good agreement with laboratory diagnoses. By identifying underrepresented groups and disparities, future studies can ensure the creation of statistically representative cohorts to maximize their scientific value. This involves recruiting and retaining underrepresented groups in health research, such as women in this study. Promising strategies for meaningful inclusion include multi-site enrollment, offering in-home or virtual services, and providing in-kind benefits like childcare for underrepresented groups.

Effectiveness of the second COVID-19 booster against Omicron: a large-scale cohort study in Chile

In light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, understanding the effectiveness of various booster vaccination regimens is pivotal. In Chile, using a prospective national cohort of 3.75 million individuals aged 20 or older, we evaluate the effectiveness against COVID-19-related intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death of mRNA-based second vaccine boosters for four different three-dose background regimes: BNT162b2 primary series followed by a homologous booster, and CoronaVac primary series followed by an mRNA booster, a homologous booster, and a ChAdOx-1 booster. We estimate the vaccine effectiveness weekly from February 14 to August 15, 2022, by determining hazard ratios of immunization over non-vaccination, accounting for relevant confounders. The overall adjusted effectiveness of a second mRNA booster shot is 88.2% (95%CI, 86.2-89.9) against ICU admissions and 90.5% (95%CI 89.4-91.4) against death. Vaccine effectiveness shows a mild decrease for all regimens and outcomes, probably linked to the introduction of BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-lineages and the waning of immunity. Based on our findings, individuals might not need additional boosters for at least 6 months after receiving a second mRNA booster shot in this setting.

A review of the global emergence of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica Serovar Infantis

Salmonella enterica serovar Infantis is an emergent foodborne and zoonotic Salmonella serovar with critical implications for global health. In recent years, the prevalence of S. Infantis infections has increased in the United States, Europe, and Latin America, due to contaminated chicken and other foods. An essential trait of S. Infantis is its resistance to multiple antibiotics, including the critically important third-generation cephalosporins and quinolones, undermining effective medical treatment, particularly in low-resource settings. We describe the emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) S. Infantis, focusing on humans, animals, the environment, and food. We conducted a systematic review (1979-2021), selected 183 studies, and analyzed the origin, source, antimicrobial resistance, and presence of a conjugative plasmid of emerging S. Infantis (pESI) in reported isolates. S. Infantis has been detected worldwide, with a substantial increase since 2011. We found the highest number of isolations in the Americas (42.9 %), Europe (29.8 %), Western Pacific (17.2 %), Eastern Mediterranean (6.6 %), Africa (3.4 %), and South-East Asia (0.1 %). S. Infantis showed MDR patterns and numerous resistant genes in all sources. The primary source of MDR S. Infantis is broiler and their meat; however, this emerging pathogen is also present in other reservoirs such as food, wildlife, and the environment. Clinical cases of MDR S. Infantis have been reported in children and adults. The global emergence of S. Infantis is related to a plasmid (pESI) with antibiotic and arsenic- and mercury-resistance genes. Additionally, a new megaplasmid (pESI-like), carrying blaCTX-M-65 and antibiotic-resistant genes reported in an ancestral version, was detected in the broiler, human, and chicken meat isolates. Strains harboring pESI-like were primarily observed in the Americas and Europe. MDR S. Infantis has spread globally, potentially becoming a major public health threat, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Prevalence of depressive disorder in the adult population of Latin America: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Depressive disorder is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide; however its prevalence and association with inequality and crime is poorly characterised in Latin America. This study aimed to: i. systematically review population-based studies of prevalence of ICD/DSM depressive disorder in Latin America, ii. report pooled regional, country, and sex-specific prevalence estimates, and iii. test its association with four country-level development indicators: human development (HDI), income (Gini) and gender inequality (GII), and intentional homicide rate (IHR).

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies reporting primary data on the prevalence of ICD/DSM depressive disorder in Latin America from 1990 to 2023, irrespective of language. We searched PubMed, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, SciELO (regional database), LILAC (regional database), and available grey literature. Study quality was assessed using JBI's critical appraisal tools. We generated pooled estimates using random-effects meta-analysis; heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. Meta-regression analyses were used to test associations of depression prevalence with indicators of inequality and human development. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019143054).

Findings

Using data from 40 studies in Latin America, lifetime, 12-month, and current prevalence of ICD/DSM depressive disorder were calculated at 12.58% (95% CI 11.00%-14.16%); 5.30% (4.55-6.06%), and 3.12% (2.22-4.03), respectively. Heterogeneity was high across lifetime, 12-month, and current prevalence, sex, and countries. 12-month and current prevalence was associated with higher Gini and GII, 12-month prevalence with lower HDI, and current prevalence with higher IHR.

Interpretation

We found a high prevalence of ICD/DSM depressive disorders in Latin America, and a statistically significant association with inequality and development indicators. The high heterogeneity found across prevalence periods and the major gaps in country representation underscore the need to escalate efforts to improve mental health access and research capabilities in Latin America. Systematic, comparable prevalence estimates would inform more effective decision-making in the region.

Funding

Pfizer Independent Medical Education Grant.

Demographic and clinical risk factors associated with severity of lab-confirmed human leptospirosis in Colombia, 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Leptospirosis is a common zoonoses and is a major global public health threat. Most cases are mild, typically presenting as a non-specific acute febrile illness. However, leptospirosis can have life-threatening manifestations, including pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome, and acute kidney injury. In Colombia, notification and lab-confirmation of suspected human cases are mandatory. However, little is known about the demographic and clinical factors associated with severe leptospirosis, which could help to reduce clinical complications and mortality. Our aim was to identify risk factors associated with severe leptospirosis, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality in lab-confirmed cases in Colombia, 2015-2020.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed 201 lab-confirmed human leptospirosis cases by microagglutination test. We used a logistic regression to identify the demographic and clinical risk factors associated with severe leptospirosis, admission to ICU, and death. Most leptospirosis confirmed cases occurred in men (85.6%); the mean age was 36.7 years. We classified severe cases (43.3%) by clinical manifestations as renal (29.9%) and liver (27.4%) failure, multiple-organ failure (24.4%), septic shock (24.4%), Weil syndrome (18.4%), pulmonary hemorrhage (18.4%), and meningitis (2.5%), admitted to the ICU (30.3%), and fatal (8.5%). Clinical conditions associated with severe leptospirosis were dyspnea (OR: 5.54; 95% CI: 1.46 to 20.98), tachycardia (OR:9.69; 95% CI: 15.96 to 58.8), and rash (OR: 10.25; 95% CI: 25.01 to 42.08).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified demographic characteristics and clinical symptoms associated with severe leptospirosis in Colombia. We hope these results can support clinicians in providing timely treatment to leptospirosis patients to avoid preventable medical complications or deaths.

Antibiotic Consumption During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic and Emergence of Carbapenemase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae Lineages Among Inpatients in a Chilean Hospital: A Time-Series Study and Phylogenomic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on antimicrobial use (AU) and resistance has not been well evaluated in South America. These data are critical to inform national policies and clinical care.

METHODS

At a tertiary hospital in Santiago, Chile, between 2018 and 2022, subdivided into pre- (3/2018-2/2020) and post-COVID-19 onset (3/2020-2/2022), we evaluated intravenous AU and frequency of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE). We grouped monthly AU (defined daily doses [DDD]/1000 patient-days) into broad-spectrum β-lactams, carbapenems, and colistin and used interrupted time-series analysis to compare AU during pre- and post-pandemic onset. We studied the frequency of carbapenemase-producing (CP) CRE and performed whole-genome sequencing analyses of all carbapenem-resistant (CR) Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKpn) isolates collected during the study period.

RESULTS

Compared with pre-pandemic, AU (DDD/1000 patient-days) significantly increased after the pandemic onset, from 78.1 to 142.5 (P < .001), 50.9 to 110.1 (P < .001), and 4.1 to 13.3 (P < .001) for broad-spectrum β-lactams, carbapenems, and colistin, respectively. The frequency of CP-CRE increased from 12.8% pre-COVID-19 to 51.9% after pandemic onset (P < .001). The most frequent CRE species in both periods was CRKpn (79.5% and 76.5%, respectively). The expansion of CP-CRE harboring blaNDM was particularly noticeable, increasing from 40% (n = 4/10) before to 73.6% (n = 39/53) after pandemic onset (P < .001). Our phylogenomic analyses revealed the emergence of two distinct genomic lineages of CP-CRKpn: ST45, harboring blaNDM, and ST1161, which carried blaKPC.

CONCLUSIONS

AU and the frequency of CP-CRE increased after COVID-19 onset. The increase in CP-CRKpn was driven by the emergence of novel genomic lineages. Our observations highlight the need to strengthen infection prevention and control and antimicrobial stewardship efforts.

Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile

The COVID-19 pandemic produced the most significant disruption in education in history. More than 190 countries suspended in-person instruction, affecting an estimated 1.6 billion students. The reopening of schools has been unequal. Schools in more affluent areas reopened sooner than poorer ones, exacerbating preexisting inequalities. There is limited research about the reopening processes in Latin America, where schools were closed for extended periods. Using a rich administrative dataset, we investigate the gaps in the resumption of in-person instruction in Chilean schools across socioeconomic groups in the fall of 2021. Schools with lower socioeconomic status were significantly less likely to offer in-person instruction. Disparities in reopening decisions were associated with administrative factors rather than economic or local epidemiological conditions.

The impact of inpatient bloodstream infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) produced by antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) cause a substantial disease burden worldwide. However, most estimates come from high-income settings and thus are not globally representative. This study quantifies the excess mortality, length of hospital stay (LOS), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and economic costs associated with ARB BSIs, compared to antibiotic-sensitive bacteria (ASB), among adult inpatients in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review by searching 4 medical databases (PubMed, SCIELO, Scopus, and WHO's Global Index Medicus; initial search n = 13,012 from their inception to August 1, 2022). We only included quantitative studies. Our final sample consisted of n = 109 articles, excluding studies from high-income countries, without our outcomes of interest, or without a clear source of bloodstream infection. Crude mortality, ICU admission, and LOS were meta-analysed using the inverse variance heterogeneity model for the general and subgroup analyses including bacterial Gram type, family, and resistance type. For economic costs, direct medical costs per bed-day were sourced from WHO-CHOICE. Mortality costs were estimated based on productivity loss from years of potential life lost due to premature mortality. All costs were in 2020 USD. We assessed studies' quality and risk of publication bias using the MASTER framework. Multivariable meta-regressions were employed for the mortality and ICU admission outcomes only. Most included studies showed a significant increase in crude mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.58, 95% CI [1.35 to 1.80], p < 0.001), total LOS (standardised mean difference "SMD" 0.49, 95% CI [0.20 to 0.78], p < 0.001), and ICU admission (OR 1.96, 95% CI [1.56 to 2.47], p < 0.001) for ARB versus ASB BSIs. Studies analysing Enterobacteriaceae, Acinetobacter baumanii, and Staphylococcus aureus in upper-middle-income countries from the African and Western Pacific regions showed the highest excess mortality, LOS, and ICU admission for ARB versus ASB BSIs per patient. Multivariable meta-regressions indicated that patients with resistant Acinetobacter baumanii BSIs had higher mortality odds when comparing ARB versus ASB BSI patients (OR 1.67, 95% CI [1.18 to 2.36], p 0.004). Excess direct medical costs were estimated at $12,442 (95% CI [$6,693 to $18,191]) for ARB versus ASB BSI per patient, with an average cost of $41,103 (95% CI [$30,931 to $51,274]) due to premature mortality. Limitations included the poor quality of some of the reviewed studies regarding the high risk of selective sampling or failure to adequately account for relevant confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide an overview of the impact ARB BSIs in limited resource settings derived from the existing literature. Drug resistance was associated with a substantial disease and economic burden in LMICs. Although, our results show wide heterogeneity between WHO regions, income groups, and pathogen-drug combinations. Overall, there is a paucity of BSI data from LMICs, which hinders implementation of country-specific policies and tracking of health progress.

Heavy Metal Pollution From a Major Earthquake and Tsunami in Chile Is Associated With Geographic Divergence of Clinical Isolates of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Latin America

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a priority pathogen listed by the World Health Organization. The global spread of MRSA is characterized by successive waves of epidemic clones that predominate in specific geographical regions. The acquisition of genes encoding resistance to heavy-metals is thought to be a key feature in the divergence and geographical spread of MRSA. Increasing evidence suggests that extreme natural events, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, could release heavy-metals into the environment. However, the impact of environmental exposition to heavy-metals on the divergence and spread of MRSA clones has been insufficiently explored. We assess the association between a major earthquake and tsunami in an industrialized port in southern Chile and MRSA clone divergence in Latin America. We performed a phylogenomic reconstruction of 113 MRSA clinical isolates from seven Latin American healthcare centers, including 25 isolates collected in a geographic area affected by an earthquake and tsunami that led to high levels of heavy-metal environmental contamination. We found a divergence event strongly associated with the presence of a plasmid harboring heavy-metal resistance genes in the isolates obtained in the area where the earthquake and tsunami occurred. Moreover, clinical isolates carrying this plasmid showed increased tolerance to mercury, arsenic, and cadmium. We also observed a physiological burden in the plasmid-carrying isolates in absence of heavy-metals. Our results are the first evidence that suggests that heavy-metal contamination, in the aftermath of an environmental disaster, appears to be a key evolutionary event for the spread and dissemination of MRSA in Latin America.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Integrated Bite Case Management and Sustained Dog Vaccination for Rabies Control

The successful prevention, control, and elimination of dog-mediated rabies is challenging due to insufficient resource availability and inadequate placement. An integrated dog bite case management (IBCM) system plus dog vaccination can help address these challenges. Based on data from the IBCM system in Haiti, we conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of a newly established IBCM system plus sustained vaccination and compared it with 1) a no bite-case management (NBCM) and 2) a non-risk-based (NRB) program, where bite victims presenting at a health clinic would receive post-exposure prophylaxis regardless of risk assessment. We also provide cost-effectiveness guidance for an ongoing IBCM system and for sub-optimal dog vaccination coverages, considering that not all cost-effective interventions are affordable. Cost-effectiveness outcomes included average cost per human death averted (USD/death averted) and per life-year gained (LYG). The analysis used a governmental perspective. Considering a sustained 5-year implementation with 70% dog vaccination coverage, IBCM had a lower average cost per death averted (IBCM: $7,528, NBCM: $7,797, NRB: $15,244) and cost per LYG (IBCM: $152, NBCM: $158, NRB: $308) than NBCM and NRB programs. As sensitivity analysis, we estimated cost-effectiveness for alternative scenarios with lower dog-vaccination coverages (30%, 55%) and lower implementation costs. Our results suggest that better health and cost-effectiveness outcomes are achieved with the continued implementation of an IBCM program ($118 per life-year saved) compared with a newly established IBCM program ($152 per life-year saved). Our results suggest that IBCM is more cost-effective than non-integrated programs to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies.

Evaluation of country infrastructure as an indirect measure of dog-mediated human rabies deaths

Background

Rabies is a neglected disease, primarily due to poor detection stemming from limited surveillance and diagnostic capabilities in most countries. As a result, there is limited ability to monitor and evaluate country, regional, and global progress towards the WHO goal of eliminating human rabies deaths by 2030. There is a need for a low-cost, readily reproducible method of estimating rabies burden and elimination capacity in endemic countries.

Methods

Publicly available economic, environmental, political, social, public health, and One Health indicators were evaluated to identify variables with strong correlation to country-level rabies burden estimates. A novel index was developed to estimate infrastructural rabies elimination capacity and annual case-burden for dog-mediated rabies virus variant (DMRVV) endemic countries.

Findings

Five country-level indicators with superior explanatory value represent the novel "STOP-R index:" (1) literacy rate, (2) infant mortality rate, (3) electricity access, (4) political stability, and (5) presence/severity of natural hazards. Based on the STOP-R index, 40,111 (95% CI 25,854-74,344) global human rabies deaths are estimated to occur in 2022 among DMRVV-endemic countries and are projected to decrease to 32,349 (95% CI 21,110-57,019) in 2030.

Interpretation

The STOP-R index offers a unique means of addressing the data gap and monitoring progress towards eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths. Results presented here suggest that factors external to rabies programs influence the successes of rabies elimination, and it is now possible to identify countries exceeding or lagging in expected rabies control and elimination progress based on country infrastructure.

Trends and socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors associated with antimicrobial resistance: a longitudinal analysis in 39 hospitals in Chile 2008-2017

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is among the most critical global health threats of the 21st century. AMR is primarily driven by the use and misuse of antibiotics but can be affected by socioeconomic and environmental factors. Reliable and comparable estimates of AMR over time are essential to making public health decisions, defining research priorities, and evaluating interventions. However, estimates for developing regions are scant. We describe the evolution of AMR for critical priority antibiotic-bacterium pairs in Chile and examine their association with hospital and community-level characteristics using multivariate rate-adjusted regressions.

Methods

Drawing on multiple data sources, we assembled a longitudinal national dataset to analyse AMR levels for critical priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in 39 private and public hospitals (2008-2017) throughout the country and characterize the population at the municipality level. We first described trends of AMR in Chile. Second, we used multivariate regressions to examine the association of AMR with hospital characteristics and community-level socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Last, we estimated the expected distribution of AMR by region in Chile.

Findings

Our results show that AMR for priority antibiotic-bacterium pairs steadily increased between 2008 and 2017 in Chile, driven primarily by Klebsiella pneumoniae resistant to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems, and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium. Higher hospital complexity, a proxy for antibiotic use, and poorer local community infrastructure were significantly associated with greater AMR.

Interpretation

Consistent with research in other countries in the region, our results show a worrisome increase in clinically relevant AMR in Chile and suggest that hospital complexity and living conditions in the community may affect the emergence and spread of AMR. Our results highlight the importance of understanding AMR in hospitals and their interaction with the community and the environment to curtail this ongoing public health crisis.

Funding

This research was supported by the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID), Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico FONDECYT, The Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR), and Centro UC de Políticas Públicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

Effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children and adolescents: a large-scale observational study

Background

Policymakers urgently need evidence to adequately balance the costs and benefits of mass vaccination against COVID-19 across all age groups, including children and adolescents. In this study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of CoronaVac's primary series among children and adolescents in Chile.

Methods

We used a large prospective national cohort of about two million children and adolescents 6-16 years to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac) in preventing laboratory-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19), hospitalisation, and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) associated with COVID-19. We compared the risk of individuals treated with a complete primary immunization schedule (two doses, 28 days apart) with the risk of unvaccinated individuals during the follow-up period. The study was conducted in Chile from June 27, 2021, to January 12, 2022, when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant but other variants of concern were co-circulating, including Omicron. We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios of complete immunization over the unvaccinated status, accounting for time-varying vaccination exposure and adjusting for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical confounders.

Findings

The estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness for the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children aged 6-16 years was 74.5% (95% CI, 73.8-75.2), 91.0% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4), 93.8% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4) for the prevention of COVID-19, hospitalisation, and ICU admission, respectively. For the subgroup of children 6-11 years, the vaccine effectiveness was 75.8% (95% CI, 74.7-76.8) for the prevention of COVID-19 and 77.9% (95% CI, 61.5-87.3) for the prevention of hospitalisation.

Interpretation

Our results suggest that a complete primary immunization schedule with the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine provides effective protection against severe COVID-19 disease for children 6-16 years.

Funding

Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative Program and Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias (FONDAP).

Childhood adversity increases risk of psychotic experiences in patients with substance use disorder

INTRODUCTION

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) increase the risk of psychotic experiences (PE), but little is known about heterogeneities of this association in different developmental stages, dimensions, or whether they are affected by substance use disorder (SUD). This study examines the association between different types of ACEs at various developmental stages and lifetime PE in patients with SUD in Chile.

METHODS

We included 399 consenting adults in outpatient or residential SUD treatment programs. Sociodemographic data and information about PE and ACEs were obtained by trained clinical psychologists.

RESULTS

Patients reporting PE experienced more ACEs compared to patients without PE (4.2 versus 3.4). They also experienced more complex adversities (41.8% versus 25.1%), had more psychiatric comorbidities (85% versus 70.4%), and reported using more substances (mean 4.5 versus 3.9). Adjusted association between ACEs and PE showed the highest OR for arrests (1.88), sexual abuse (1.81), alcohol abuse by parents (1.48), school exclusion (1.39), foster or residential care (18.3).

CONCLUSION

Early exposure to ACEs is a risk factor for later PE among patients with SUD. Type of ACE and the period when they occurred is important, suggesting the existence of critical periods where the individual is more susceptible to adverse environmental stimuli.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac in children 3 to 5 years during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron outbreak in Chile

The outbreak of the B.1.1.529 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Omicron) has caused an unprecedented number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, including pediatric hospital admissions. Policymakers urgently need evidence of vaccine effectiveness in children to balance the costs and benefits of vaccination campaigns, but, to date, the evidence is sparse. Leveraging a population-based cohort in Chile of 490,694 children aged 3–5 years, we estimated the effectiveness of administering a two-dose schedule, 28 days apart, of Sinovac’s inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac). We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios of symptomatic COVID-19, hospitalization and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for children with complete immunization over non-vaccination, accounting for time-varying vaccination exposure and relevant confounders. The study was conducted between 6 December 2021 and 26 February 2022, during the Omicron outbreak in Chile. The estimated vaccine effectiveness was 38.2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 36.5–39.9) against symptomatic COVID-19, 64.6% (95% CI, 49.6–75.2) against hospitalization and 69.0% (95% CI, 18.6–88.2) against ICU admission. The effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 was modest; however, protection against severe disease was high. These results support vaccination of children aged 3–5 years to prevent severe illness and associated complications and highlight the importance of maintaining layered protections against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CoronaVac protects young children from severe COVID-19 during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron surge, supporting the effectiveness and importance of vaccinating this pediatric population.

Effectiveness of Localized Lockdowns in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and lockdowns, have been essential to control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In particular, localized lockdowns in small geographic areas have become an important policy intervention for preventing viral spread in cases of resurgence. These localized lockdowns can result in lower social and economic costs compared with larger-scale suppression strategies. Using an integrated data set from Chile (March 3-June 15, 2020) and a novel synthetic control approach, we estimated the effect of localized lockdowns, disentangling its direct and indirect causal effects on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Our results showed that the effects of localized lockdowns are strongly modulated by their duration and are influenced by indirect effects from neighboring geographic areas. Our estimates suggest that extending localized lockdowns can slow down SARS-CoV-2 transmission; however, localized lockdowns on their own are insufficient to control pandemic growth in the presence of indirect effects from contiguous neighboring areas that do not have lockdowns. These results provide critical empirical evidence about the effectiveness of localized lockdowns in interconnected geographic areas.

Effects of mindfulness-based stress reduction on psychological distress in health workers: A three-arm parallel randomized controlled trial

Mindfulness-based Stress Reduction (MBSR) has shown good efficacy for improving wellbeing in employees experiencing occupational stress. However, comparisons with other interventions, longer-term follow-up, and data from varying sociocultural contexts are lacking. This three-arm, parallel randomised controlled trial (RCT) examined the effects of MBSR on psychological distress in non-physician health workers in direct contact with patients. 105 participants were randomly allocated to either: (1) MBSR (N = 35), (2) Stress Management Course (SMC; N = 34) or (3) wait-list (N = 36). Participants and those assessing outcomes were blinded to group assignment. Participants completed questionnaires pre- and post-intervention and four months after the intervention. Psychological distress was measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Outcome Questionnaire (OQ-45). Secondary outcomes included perceived stress, job satisfaction, mindfulness skills and changes in salivary cortisol. 77 participants completed measures post-intervention and 52 at 4-month follow-up. MBSR showed a post-intervention effect in reducing GHQ-12 (ß = -0.80 [SE = 1.58] p < 0.01) and OQ-45 (ß = -0.72, [SE = 5.87] p < 0.05) psychological distress, compared to SMC and in reducing GHQ-12 (ß = -1.30 [SE = 1.38] p < 0.001) and OQ-45 (ß = -0.71, [SE = 5.58] p < 0.01) psychological distress compared to wait-list condition. In our secondary outcome, only MBSR was associated with a decrease in the cortisol awaking response by 23% (p < 0.05). At follow-up, only effects of MBSR on the psychological distress 'social role' subscale (ß = -0.76 [SE = 1.31] p < 0.05) remained significant, compared to SMC. In conclusion, MBSR appears useful in reducing short-term psychological distress in healthcare workers, but these effects were not maintained at follow-up. Trial registration: ISRCTN12039804.

Screening of COVID-19 cases through a Bayesian network symptoms model and psychophysical olfactory test

The sudden loss of smell is among the earliest and most prevalent symptoms of COVID-19 when measured with a clinical psychophysical test. Research has shown the potential impact of frequent screening for olfactory dysfunction, but existing tests are expensive and time consuming. We developed a low-cost ($0.50/test) rapid psychophysical olfactory test (KOR) for frequent testing and a model-based COVID-19 screening framework using a Bayes Network symptoms model. We trained and validated the model on two samples: suspected COVID-19 cases in five healthcare centers (n = 926; 33% prevalence, 309 RT-PCR confirmed) and healthy miners (n = 1,365; 1.1% prevalence, 15 RT-PCR confirmed). The model predicted COVID-19 status with 76% and 96% accuracy in the healthcare and miners samples, respectively (healthcare: AUC = 0.79 [0.75-0.82], sensitivity: 59%, specificity: 87%; miners: AUC = 0.71 [0.63-0.79], sensitivity: 40%, specificity: 97%, at 0.50 infection probability threshold). Our results highlight the potential for low-cost, frequent, accessible, routine COVID-19 testing to support society's reopening.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Employment Loss in Informal Settlements during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Chile

The Covid-19 pandemic has reached almost every corner of the world. Despite the historical development, approval, and distribution of vaccines in some countries, non-pharmaceutical interventions will remain an essential strategy to control the pandemic until a substantial proportion of the population has immunity. There is increasing evidence of the devastating social and economic effects of the pandemic, particularly on vulnerable communities. Individuals living in urban informal settlements are in a structurally disadvantaged position to cope with a health crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Estimates of this impact are needed to inform and prioritize policy decisions and actions. We study employment loss in informal settlements before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in Chile, using a longitudinal panel study of households living in Chile's informal settlements before and during the health crisis. We show that before the pandemic, 75% of respondents reported being employed. There is a decrease of 30 and 40 percentage points in May and September 2020, respectively. We show that the employment loss is substantially higher for individuals in informal settlements than for the general population and has particularly affected the immigrant population. We also show that the pandemic has triggered neighborhood cooperation within the settlements and that targeted government assistance programs have reached these communities in a limited way. Our results suggest that individuals living in informal settlements are facing severe hardship as a consequence of the pandemic. In addition to providing much-needed support, this crisis presents a unique opportunity for long-term improvements in these marginalized communities.

Effectiveness of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Chile

BACKGROUND

Mass vaccination campaigns to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) are occurring in many countries; estimates of vaccine effectiveness are urgently needed to support decision making. A countrywide mass vaccination campaign with the use of an inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine (CoronaVac) was conducted in Chile starting on February 2, 2021.

METHODS

We used a prospective national cohort, including participants 16 years of age or older who were affiliated with the public national health care system, to assess the effectiveness of the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with regard to preventing Covid-19 and related hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and death. We estimated hazard ratios using the extension of the Cox proportional-hazards model, accounting for time-varying vaccination status. We estimated the change in the hazard ratio associated with partial immunization (≥14 days after receipt of the first dose and before receipt of the second dose) and full immunization (≥14 days after receipt of the second dose). Vaccine effectiveness was estimated with adjustment for individual demographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

The study was conducted from February 2 through May 1, 2021, and the cohort included approximately 10.2 million persons. Among persons who were fully immunized, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 65.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.2 to 66.6) for the prevention of Covid-19 and 87.5% (95% CI, 86.7 to 88.2) for the prevention of hospitalization, 90.3% (95% CI, 89.1 to 91.4) for the prevention of ICU admission, and 86.3% (95% CI, 84.5 to 87.9) for the prevention of Covid-19-related death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectively prevented Covid-19, including severe disease and death, a finding that is consistent with results of phase 2 trials of the vaccine. (Funded by Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo and others.).

Lifetime socioeconomic determinants of health trajectories among older adults

Drawing on life course theory and research, we explored how socioeconomic circumstances during childhood and adulthood shape self-reported health trajectories among older Mexican adults. We used data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study panel survey (2001-2015) and used sequence analysis to estimate types of self-reported health trajectories in older adulthood. We then explored the association between those health trajectories and socioeconomic determinants at different life stages, including education, occupation, employment, economic status, parental education, and adverse living conditions and illnesses during childhood. Our contributions are threefold. First, we identified four types of health trajectories for men and eight for women, representing a more nuanced longitudinal health status profile than previously shown. Second, we found that childhood and adult socioeconomic circumstances influence self-reported health trajectories at older age. Third, our results suggest there is no simple monotonic relationship between life course circumstances and self-reported health trajectories.

Tool for Estimating the Probability of Having COVID-19 With 1 or More Negative RT-PCR Results

Early case detection and isolation of infected individuals are critical to controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is considered the gold standard for the diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, but false negatives do occur. We built a user-friendly online tool to estimate the probability of having COVID-19 with negative RT-PCR results and thus avoid preventable transmission.

Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing

Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories and could inform policy decisions about strategies to control coronavirus transmission. However, comparing cases and fatality rates across regions is challenging due to heterogeneity in testing and health systems. We show two complementary ways of benchmarking across territories and in time. First, we used multivariate regressions to estimate the test-elasticity of Covid-19 case incidence. Cases grow less than proportionally with testing when assessing weekly changes or looking across states in the USA. They tend to be proportional or even more than proportional when comparing the month-to-month evolution of an average country in the pandemic. Our results were robust to various model specifications. Second, we decomposed the growth in cases into test growth and positive test ratio growth to intuitively visualize the components of case growth. We hope these results can help support evidence-based decisions by public officials and help the public discussion when comparing across territories and in time.

Persistence of symptoms in dengue patients: a clinical cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dengue is commonly considered an acute illness and follows three phases: febrile, critical in some cases and recovery. However, a number of studies have described a continuation of dengue symptoms for weeks or months, extending the recovery phase. Here we evaluate this persistence of dengue symptoms during convalescence.

METHODS

Our clinical cohort study included patients who sought medical services 48 to 144 h from the onset of fever at seven hospitals or ambulatory centers in Morelos, Mexico. Seventy-nine laboratory-confirmed dengue patients were followed up regularly using clinic and/or home visits and telephone calls for as long as symptoms persisted or up to 6 mo.

RESULTS

In total, 55.7% of patients had dengue-related symptoms 1 mo after the onset of fever; pain and dermatological manifestations were the most common persistent symptoms. Prognostic factors for symptom persistence were: ≥4 d of fever (RR 1.72; 95% CI 1.35 to 2.19), platelet count ≤100 000/mm3 (RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.20 to 2.20), petechiae/bruises (RR 1.97; 95% CI 1.56 to 2.48) and abdominal pain/hepatomegaly (RR 1.79; 95% CI 1.41 to 2.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Persistence of dengue symptoms were common in laboratory-confirmed dengue patients. Manifestations related to tissue damage were associated with persistence after 30 d; host characteristics, such as age and health status before infection, were associated with prolonged persistence (>60 d). The burden of dengue may be higher than previously estimated.

Health-Related Quality of Life after Dengue Fever, Morelos, Mexico, 2016-2017

We adapted the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire and visual analog scale to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and persistent symptoms in 79 patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue in Morelos, Mexico. The lowest HRQOLs were 0.53 and 38.1 (febrile phase). Patients recovered baseline HRQOL in ≈2 months.

The effect of gender targeting of food transfers on child nutritional status: Experimental evidence from the Bolivian Amazon

Some research suggests women are more likely to allocate additional resources to their children than are men. This perception has influenced policies such as in-kind food transfer programs and cash transfer programs, which often target women recipients. We assess whether targeting in-kind rice transfers to female versus male adult household members has a differential impact on children's short-run nutritional status. We estimate the impacts of transfers of edible rice and rice seeds, randomly allocated to female or male adults, on three anthropometric indicators: BMI-for-age, arm-muscle area, and triceps skinfold thickness. The trial includes 481 children aged 3-11 years in a horticultural-foraging society of native Amazonians in Bolivia. On average, the gender of the transfer recipient does not influence child anthropometric dimensions, possibly due to norms of cooperation and sharing within and between households. We find limited evidence of heterogeneity in impacts. Transfers to women help children who were growth stunted at baseline to partially catch-up to their better-nourished age-sex peers and help boys (but not girls) and children in higher-income households increase their BMI-for-age. The results of this research point to the importance of considering cultural context in determining if allocating food transfers according to gender are most effective.

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990-2015

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990-2015.

METHODOLOGY

Combining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Results suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.

COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-August 2020

BACKGROUND

Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America.

METHODS

We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework.

RESULTS

As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09-4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19-3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67-3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25-58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02-42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality.

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

BACKGROUND

Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly considered an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions.

METHODS

Drawing from a rich data set of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level.

RESULTS

Our results show that lockdowns were associated with a 10%-15% drop in local economic activity, which is twice the reduction in local economic activity suffered by municipalities that were not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than a year of the 2009 great recession. We found costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or city-wide levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas since the proportional impact of lockdowns on the economy seems to be unchanged by scale.

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile's incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513188 cases, including ~14302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile's incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96( 95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic factors associated with antimicrobial resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli in Chilean hospitals (2008-2017)

Objective.

To identify socioeconomic factors associated with antimicrobial resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli in Chilean hospitals (2008–2017).

Methods.

We reviewed the scientific literature on socioeconomic factors associated with the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. Using multivariate regression, we tested findings from the literature drawing from a longitudinal dataset on antimicrobial resistance from 41 major private and public hospitals and a nationally representative household survey in Chile (2008–2017). We estimated resistance rates for three priority antibiotic–bacterium pairs, as defined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; i.e., imipenem and meropenem resistant P. aeruginosa, cloxacillin resistant S. aureus, and cefotaxime and ciprofloxacin resistant E. coli.

Results.

Evidence from the literature review suggests poverty and material deprivation are important risk factors for the emergence and transmission of antimicrobial resistance. Most studies found that worse socioeconomic indicators were associated with higher rates of antimicrobial resistance. Our analysis showed an overall antimicrobial resistance rate of 32.5%, with the highest rates for S. aureus (40.6%) and the lowest for E. coli (25.7%). We found a small but consistent negative association between socioeconomic factors (income, education, and occupation) and overall antimicrobial resistance in univariate (p < 0.01) and multivariate analyses (p < 0.01), driven by resistant P. aeruginosa and S. aureus.

Conclusion.

Socioeconomic factors beyond health care and hospital settings may affect the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. Preventing and controlling antimicrobial resistance requires efforts above and beyond reducing antibiotic consumption.

Evaluating the validity of dengue clinical-epidemiological criteria for diagnosis in patients residing in a Brazilian endemic area

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the validity of clinical diagnosis compared with laboratory diagnosis of dengue in a retrospective sample of patients in São José do Rio Preto, Brazil.

METHODS

Our sample included 148 299 clinically (56.3%) or laboratory-diagnosed (43.7%) dengue cases. We compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of dengue patients' demographic and clinical characteristics with laboratory-based diagnosis. We used logistic regressions to estimate the correlation between clinical and laboratory diagnosis of dengue and a full set of dengue signs and symptoms.

RESULTS

We found substantial variability in sensitivity and specificity of signs and symptoms ranging from 0.8-81.1 and 21.5-99.6, respectively. Thrombocytopenia exhibited the highest PPV (92.0) and lowest NPV (42.2) and was the only symptom showing agreement with laboratory-confirmed dengue (φ = 0.38). The presence of exanthema and thrombocytopenia led to a greater likelihood of concordant clinical and laboratory diagnoses (exanthema: OR: 4.23; 95% CI: 2.09 to 8.57; thrombocytopenia: OR: 4.02; 95% CI: 1.32 to 12.27).

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial variation in sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of dengue signs and symptoms. For accuracy, clinical and laboratory diagnosis of dengue should be performed concurrently. When laboratory tests are not available, we suggest focusing on the clinical manifestations most associated with dengue.

Risk of death by age and gender from CoVID-19 in Peru, March-May, 2020

Peru implemented strict social distancing measures during the early phase of the epidemic and is now experiencing one of the largest CoVID-19 epidemics in Latin America. Estimates of disease severity are an essential indicator to inform policy decisions about the intensity and duration of interventions needed to mitigate the outbreak. Here we derive delay-adjusted case fatality risks (aCFR) of CoVID-19 in a middle-income country in South America.We utilize government-reported time series of CoVID-19 cases and deaths in Peru stratified by age group and gender.As of May 25, 2020, we estimate the aCFR for men and women at 10.8% (95%CrI: 10.5-11.1%) and 6.5% (95%CrI: 6.2-6.8%), respectively, whereas the overall aCFR was estimated at 9.1% (95%CrI: 8.9-9.3%). Our results show that senior individuals have been the most severely affected by CoVID-19, particularly men, with an aCFR of nearly 60% for those aged 80- years. We also found that men have a significantly higher cumulative morbidity ratio across most age groups (proportion test, p-value< 0.001), with the exception of those aged 0-9 years.The ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic is generating a substantial mortality burden in Peru. Senior individuals, especially those older than 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the CoVID-19 pandemic.

A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

OBJECTIVES

Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions.

METHODS

The tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic's local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile.

RESULTS

Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.

Costs and effectiveness of alternative dog vaccination strategies to improve dog population coverage in rural and urban settings during a rabies outbreak

Dog-rabies elimination programs have typically relied upon parenteral vaccination at central-point locations; however, dog-ownership practices, accessibility to hard-to-reach sub-populations, resource limitations, and logistics may impact a country's ability to reach the 70% coverage goal recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and World Health Organization (WHO). Here we report the cost-effectiveness of different dog-vaccination strategies during a dog-rabies outbreak in urban and peri-urban sections of Croix-des-Bouquets commune of the West Department, Haiti, in 2016. Three strategies, mobile static point (MSP), mobile static point with capture-vaccinate-release (MSP + CVR), and door-to-door vaccination with oral vaccination (DDV + ORV), were applied at five randomly assigned sites and assessed for free-roaming dog vaccination coverage and total population coverage. A total of 7065 dogs were vaccinated against rabies during the vaccination campaign. Overall, free-roaming dog vaccination coverage was estimated at 52% (47%-56%) for MSP, 53% (47%-60%) for DDV + ORV, and 65% (61%-69%) for MSP + CVR (differences with MSP and DDV + ORV significant at p < 0.01). Total dog vaccination coverage was 33% (95% CI: 26%-43%) for MSP, 49% (95% CI: 40%-61%) for MSP + CVR and 78% (77%-80%) for DDV + ORV (differences significant at p < 0.001). Overall, the least expensive campaign was MSP, with an estimated cost of about $2039 per day ($4078 total), and the most expensive was DDV + ORV with a cost of $3246 per day ($6492 total). Despite the relative high cost of an ORV bait, combining DDV and ORV was the most cost-effective strategy in our study ($1.97 per vaccinated dog), largely due to increased efficiency of the vaccinators to target less accessible dogs. Costs per vaccinated dog were $2.20 for MSP and $2.28 for MSP + CVR. We hope the results from this study will support the design and implementation of effective dog vaccination campaigns to achieve the goal of eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030.

Centre-based care is a significant predictor of lower body mass index in early childhood: Longitudinal evidence from Chile

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of childhood overweight has increased by approximately 50% in the past three decades, becoming a major public health concern worldwide. In Chile, an upper middle-income country, about 38% of children between two and four years of age are overweight, almost double the average in Latin America and the Caribbean. Various environmental and individual factors, and their interactions, affect childhood weight. Emerging evidence suggests childcare may also matter. Because the public provision of centre-based care is growing, childcare may be a useful policy tool to help prevent childhood overweight.

METHODS

Using a nationally representative longitudinal survey of ~ 15 000 children in Chile (2010 and 2012), we estimated whether the type of child care (centre-based or maternal) a child attended at age 24 to 36 months was a significant predictor of the child's sex-and-age-specific body-mass-index (BMI) at age 36-48 months. We restricted our sample to children in full-time maternal care at baseline (12-24 months of age; n = 1273), but tested the robustness of results with the full sample. We compared children in centre-based care and in maternal care using difference-in-difference estimators and propensity score matching, and adjusted our estimates using child, family, and neighborhood characteristics.

RESULTS

Children attending centre-based care had 0.27 SD lower BMI than children in maternal care at follow-up (P < 0.05). We found suggestive evidence this association may be modulated by the child's socioeconomic status and by how frequently the child watched television: we found smaller BMI changes for children at the bottom 80% of socioeconomic status (P < 0.05) and also for children who frequently watched television (P < 0.10). Our results were robust to various model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest centre-based care programs, with adequate regulation and enforcement, may be a useful support to help curb the early childhood overweight epidemic, in addition to known effects in labor supply and child development.

Cost-effectiveness of community mobilization (Camino Verde) for dengue prevention in Nicaragua and Mexico: A cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of Camino Verde, a community-based mobilization strategy to prevent and control dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. A cluster-randomized controlled trial in Managua, Nicaragua, and in three coastal regions in Guerrero, Mexico (75 intervention and 75 control clusters), Camino Verde used non-governmental community health workers, called brigadistas, to support community mobilization. This donor-funded trial demonstrated reductions of 29.5% (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.8%-55.3%) on dengue infections and 24.7% (CI: 1.8%-51.2%) on self-reported cases.

METHODS

We estimated program costs through a micro-costing approach and semi-structured questionnaires. We show results as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALYs) averted and conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

FINDINGS

The Camino Verde trial spent US$16.72 in Mexico and $7.47 in Nicaragua per person annually. We found an average of 910 (CI: 487-1 353) and 500 (CI: 250-760) dengue cases averted annually per million population in Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively, compared to control communities. The ICER in Mexico was US$29 618 (CI: 13 869-66 898) per DALY averted, or 3.0 times per capita GDP. For Nicaragua, the ICER was US$29 196 (CI: 14294-72181) per DALY averted, or 16.9 times per capita GDP.

INTERPRETATION

Camino Verde, as implemented in the research context, was marginally cost-effective in Mexico, and not cost-effective in Nicaragua, from a healthcare sector perspective. Nicaragua's low per capita GDP and the use of grant-funded management personnel weakened the cost-effectiveness results. Achieving efficiencies by incorporating Camino Verde activities into existing public health programs would make Camino Verde cost-effective.

Universal and Non-universal Features of Musical Pitch Perception Revealed by Singing

Musical pitch perception is argued to result from nonmusical biological constraints and thus to have similar characteristics across cultures, but its universality remains unclear. We probed pitch representations in residents of the Bolivian Amazon-the Tsimane', who live in relative isolation from Western culture-as well as US musicians and non-musicians. Participants sang back tone sequences presented in different frequency ranges. Sung responses of Amazonian and US participants approximately replicated heard intervals on a logarithmic scale, even for tones outside the singing range. Moreover, Amazonian and US reproductions both deteriorated for high-frequency tones even though they were fully audible. But whereas US participants tended to reproduce notes an integer number of octaves above or below the heard tones, Amazonians did not, ignoring the note "chroma" (C, D, etc.). Chroma matching in US participants was more pronounced in US musicians than non-musicians, was not affected by feedback, and was correlated with similarity-based measures of octave equivalence as well as the ability to match the absolute f0 of a stimulus in the singing range. The results suggest the cross-cultural presence of logarithmic scales for pitch, and biological constraints on the limits of pitch, but indicate that octave equivalence may be culturally contingent, plausibly dependent on pitch representations that develop from experience with particular musical systems. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.

INTERPRETATION

Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of the impact of shigellosis exclusion policies in childcare settings upon detection of a shigellosis outbreak

Background

In the event of a shigellosis outbreak in a childcare setting, exclusion policies are typically applied to afflicted children to limit shigellosis transmission. However, there is scarce evidence of their impact.

Methods

We evaluated five exclusion policies: Children return to childcare after: i) two consecutive laboratory tests (either PCR or culture) do not detect Shigella, ii) a single negative laboratory test (PCR or culture) does not detect Shigella, iii) seven days after beginning antimicrobial treatment, iv) after being symptom-free for 24 h, or v) 14 days after symptom onset. We also included four treatments to assess the policy options: i) immediate, effective treatment; ii) effective treatment after laboratory diagnosis; iii) no treatment; iv) ineffective treatment. Relying on published data, we calculated the likelihood that a child reentering childcare would be infectious, and the number of childcare-days lost per policy.

Results

Requiring two consecutive negative PCR tests yielded a probability of onward transmission of < 1%, with up to 17 childcare-days lost for children receiving effective treatment, and 53 days lost for those receiving ineffective treatment.

Conclusions

Of the policies analyzed, requiring negative PCR testing before returning to childcare was the most effective to reduce the risk of shigellosis transmission, with one PCR test being the most effective for the least childcare-days lost.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3796-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.