Generating consensus on road safety issues and priorities in Ghana: A modified Delphi approach

BACKGROUND

Implementation of evidence-based approaches to reduce the substantial health, social, and financial burdens of road traffic injuries and deaths in Ghana and other low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is vitally important. Consensus from national stakeholders can provide insight into what evidence to generate and which interventions to prioritize for road safety. The main objective of this study was to elicit expert views on the barriers to reaching international and national road safety targets, the gaps in national-level research, implementation, and evaluation, and the future action priorities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used an iterative three-round modified Delphi process to generate consensus among Ghanaian road safety stakeholders. We defined consensus as 70% or more stakeholders selecting a specific response in the survey. We defined partial consensus (termed "majority") as 50% or more stakeholders selecting a particular response.

RESULTS

Twenty-three stakeholders from different sectors participated. Experts generated consensus on barriers to road safety goals, including the poor regulation of commercial and public transport vehicles and limited use of technology to monitor and enforce traffic behaviors and laws. Stakeholders agreed that the impact of increasing motorcycle (2- and 3-wheel) use on road traffic injury burden is poorly understood and that it is a priority to evaluate road-user risk factors such as speed, helmet use, driving skills, and distracted driving. One emerging area was the impact of unattended/disabled vehicles along roadways. There was consensus on the need for additional research, implementation, and evaluation efforts of several interventions, including focused treatment of hazardous spots, driver training, road safety education as part of academic curricula, promotion of community involvement in first aid, development of strategically positioned trauma centers, and towing of disabled vehicles.

CONCLUSION

This modified Delphi process with stakeholders from Ghana generated consensus on road safety research, implementation, and evaluation priorities.

Health impacts of changes in travel patterns in Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana

BACKGROUND

Health impact assessments of alternative travel patterns are urgently needed to inform transport and urban planning in African cities, but none exists so far.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the health impacts of changes in travel patterns in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana.

METHODS

We estimated changes to population exposures to physical activity, air pollution, and road traffic fatality risk and consequent health burden (deaths and years of life lost prematurely - YLL) in response to changes in transportation patterns. Five scenarios were defined in collaboration with international and local partners and stakeholders to reflect potential local policy actions.

RESULTS

Swapping bus and walking trips for car trips can lead to more than 400 extra deaths and 20,500 YLL per year than travel patterns observed in 2009. If part of the rise in motorisation is from motorcycles, we estimated an additional nearly 370 deaths and over 18,500 YLL per year. Mitigating the rise in motorisation by swapping long trips by car or taxi to bus trips is the most beneficial for health, averting more than 600 premature deaths and over 31,500 YLL per year. Without significant improvements in road safety, reduction of short motorised trips in favour of cycling and walking had no significant net health benefits as non-communicable diseases deaths and YLL benefits were offset by increases in road traffic deaths. In all scenarios, road traffic fatalities were the largest contributor to changes in deaths and YLL.

CONCLUSIONS

Rising motorisation, particularly from motorcycles, can cause significant increase in health burden in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area. Mitigating rising motorisation by improving public transport would benefit population health. Tackling road injury risk to ensure safe walking and cycling is a top priority. In the short term, this will save lives from injury. Longer term it will help halt the likely fall in physical activity.

Injury-severity analysis of intercity bus crashes in Ghana: A random parameters multinomial logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach

Travel by bus is an efficient, cost-effective, safe and preferred means of intercity transport in many advanced countries. On the contrary, there is huge public sentiment about the safety records of intercity buses in low- and middle-income countries given the increasing bus-involved road traffic crashes and high fatality rates. This study sought to model the injury severity of intercity bus transport in Ghana using the random parameters multinomial logit with heterogeneity in means and variances modelling technique to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset. The dataset involves crash data from the 575 km long Accra-Kumasi-Sunyani-Gonokrom highway in Ghana. Four discrete crash outcome categories were considered in this study: fatal injury, hospitalized injury, minor injury, and no injury. The study observed that crashes involving pedestrians, unlicensed drivers, and drivers and passengers aged more than 60 years have a higher probability of sustaining fatal injuries. Also, speeding, wrong overtaking, careless driving and inexperienced drivers were associated with fatal injury outcomes on the highway. The incidence of intercity bus transport crashes involving larger buses and minibuses were also found to more likely result in fatalities. The probability of hospitalized injury increased for crashes that occurred in a village setting. Given these findings, the study proposed improvement of the road infrastructure, enforcing seatbelt availability and use in intercity buses, increased enforcement of the traffic rules and regulations to deter driver recklessness and speeding as well as improving the luminance of the highways. Additionally, apps that have features for customers to rate intercity bus operators, the quality of services provided, and also have the option to report reckless driving activities can be developed to promote safe and inclusive public transport in the country.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and pedestrian injury severity in Ghana

Objectives: Each year, pedestrian injuries constitute over 40% of all road casualty deaths and up to 60% of all urban road casualty deaths in Ghana. This is as a result of the overwhelming dependence on walking as a mode of transport in an environment where there are high vehicular speeds and inadequate pedestrian facilities. The objectives of this research were to establish the (1) impact of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and (2) association between traffic calming measures and pedestrian injury severity in built-up areas in Ghana. Method: Vehicle speeds were unobtrusively measured in 38 selected settlements, including 19 with traffic calming schemes and 19 without. The study design used in this research was a matched case-control. A regression analysis compared case and control casualties using a conditional logistic regression. Results: Generally, the mean vehicle speeds and the proportion of vehicles exceeding the 50 km/h speed limit were significantly lower in settlements that have traffic calming measures compared to towns without any traffic calming measures. Additionally, the proportion of motorists who exceeded the speed limit was 30% or less in settlements that have traffic calming devices and the proportion who exceeded the speed limit was 60% or more in towns without any traffic calming measures. The odds of pedestrian fatality was significantly higher in settlements that have no traffic calming devices compared to those that have (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.43). The protective effects of a traffic calming scheme that has a speed table was notably higher than those where there were no speed tables. Conclusion: It was clearly evident that traffic calming devices reduce vehicular speeds and, thus, the incidence and severity of pedestrian injuries in built-up areas in Ghana. However, the fact that they are deployed on arterial roads is increasingly becoming a road safety concern. Given the emerging safety challenges associated with speed calming measures, we recommend that their use be restricted to residential streets but not on arterial roads. Long-term solutions for improving pedestrian safety proposed herein include bypassing settlements along the highways to reduce pedestrians' exposure to traffic collisions and adopting a modern way of enforcement such as evidence-based laser monitoring in conjunction with a punishment regime that utilizes the demerit points system.

Road safety implications of the blood alcohol concentrations among alcohol users exiting bars in northern Ghana

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study was to establish the blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of bar patrons relative to the legal (BAC) limit for Ghana and the international guideline on alcohol consumption.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study design and a convenience sampling technique were used to collect data at selected bars in 2 cities, namely; Bolgatanga and Wa, in northern Ghana. A breathalyzer was used to measure the breath alcohol concentrations of participants exiting bars and face-to-face questionnaires were administered to participants to capture their accident histories, alcohol consumption patterns, and modes of transport they usually use to travel to their next destination after alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

The mean BAC of bar patrons was 0.143 ± 0.096% (95% confidence interval, 0.127 to 0.160%). The mean BAC of males (0.156%) was significantly higher than the mean BAC of females (0.103%; p = 0.004). Sixty-two percent of participants were exiting the bars with BACs of more than the legal BAC limit and 44% of this proportion was at 0.150% or more. Fifty-one percent of participants indicated that they usually consume a mixture of alcoholic beverages consisting of homemade and factory-made drinks. Fifty-seven percent of participants who usually consume a mixture of drinks had BACs of 0.150% or above. Only 22% of females and 6% of males consume alcohol within their respective recommended low risk of 1 to 2 units and 1 to 4 units, respectively. A vast majority of participants (96%) reported that they usually engage in risky behaviors such as riding, walking, or driving to their next destination after consuming alcohol.

CONCLUSION

Motorists were more likely to exit the bars with very high BACs. It is recommended that police should enforce the BAC law. In addition, in order to prevent harmful use of alcohol, the introduction of an alcohol consumption guideline in Ghana is recommended. Because alcohol consumption is increasing currently with motorization, it is also necessary to educate alcohol users about the number of drinks required to stay below the legal limit if they are motorists as well as other road users or to prevent long-term illnesses associated with excessive alcohol use.

Prevalence of alcohol among nonfatally injured road accident casualties in two level III trauma centers in northern Ghana

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use is pervasive among motorists on the road in Ghana; however, we do not know the extent to which this behavior is implicated in road accidents in this country.

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this research was to establish the prevalence of alcohol in the blood of nonfatally injured casualties in the emergency departments (EDs) in northern Ghana.

METHOD

Participants were injured road traffic crash victims, namely, pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and drivers seeking treatment at an ED. The study sites were 2 level III trauma centers located in Wa and Bolgatanga. Participants were screened for alcohol followed by breath tests for positive participants using breathalyzers.

RESULTS

Two hundred and sixty-two accident victims visited EDs, 58% of whom were in Wa. Among the victims, 41% were hospitalized and 57% experienced slight injuries. The vast majority (76%) of the casualties were motorcyclists, 13% were pedestrians, 8% were cyclists, and 2% were drivers. Casualties who had detectable alcohol in their blood were predominantly vulnerable road users. In all, 34% of participants had detectable blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) and the mean BAC for all casualties who tested positive and could give definitive BACs was 0.2265 (226 mg/dl). The prevalence of alcohol use was 53% among cyclists, 34% among motorcyclists, 21% among pedestrians, and 17% among drivers. Male casualties were more likely to test positive for alcohol than females. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol was significantly higher among injured casualties in Bolgatanga compared to Wa.

CONCLUSION

There was a high prevalence of alcohol use among nonfatally injured casualties in northern Ghana and injury severity increased with BAC. AUDIT screening in the hospital, alcohol consumption guideline, road safety education with an emphasis on minimizing or eliminating alcohol consumption, and enhanced enforcement of the BAC limit among motorists are recommended.

Road accident fatality risks for "vulnerable" versus "protected" road users in northern Ghana

BACKGROUND

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a serious epidemic that claims more than a million lives across the globe each year. The burden of RTIs is particularly pronounced in Africa and other low- and middle-income countries. The unfavorable disparity of the burden of road trauma in the world is largely attributable to unsafe vehicles, lack of appropriate road infrastructure, and the predominance of vulnerable road users (VRUs) in developing countries. However, little research exists in northern Ghana to highlight the scale and risk of death among road users.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research was to establish the relative risk of death among road users in northern Ghana.

METHODS

Crash data from police reports between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed for the Upper Regions of Ghana. Conditional probabilities and multivariable logistic regression techniques were used to report proportions and adjusted odds ratios (AORs), respectively.

RESULTS

Generally, crashes in northern Ghana were extremely severe; that is, 35% of all injury related collisions were fatal. The proportion of fatal casualties ranged between 21% among victims of sideswipe collisions and 41% among pedestrians and victims of rear-end collisions. Though males were 6 times more likely to die than females overall, females were more likely to die as pedestrians (90% of all female casualty deaths) and males were more likely to die as riders/drivers (78% of all male casualty deaths). Pedestrians were 3 times more likely to die (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4 to 4.1) compared with drivers/riders. Compared with drivers, the odds of death among cyclists was about 4 times higher (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI, 2.3 to 5.6) and about 2 times higher among motorcyclists (AOR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.2). Compared with casualties aged between 30 and 59 years, children under 10 years and those aged 60 years and above were independently 2 times more likely to die in traffic collisions.

CONCLUSION

Provision of requisite road infrastructure is vital for the safety of VRUs in northern Ghana. Cycle paths and lanes (for cyclists) as well as sidewalks (for pedestrians) in particular will separate VRUs from motorists and improve their safety. Enforcement of traffic laws particularly regarding helmet use, speeding, and alcohol use will be beneficial. Introduction of the demerit points system in the enforcement of traffic regulations may have significant deterrent effects on road users who have the penchant for violating traffic regulations. Road safety education is also required to create responsible road users.

Assessment of the road safety performance of four roundabouts in Kumasi, Ghana

Upgrade of the Ejisu-Kumasi section of the N6 saw the construction of roundabouts at selected intersections. Their use appears challenging particularly for vehicles with elevated Centre-of-Gravity. The objective of this study was to establish the relative risk of traffic accident deaths or hospitalized injuries at the roundabouts. Five-year crash data covering a 100 m stretch upstream and downstream of the roundabouts were analysed. A total of 119 crashes occurred with 18% casualty hospitalization and 12%fatalities. Compared with the Ejisu roundabout, fatal or hospitalized injuries were significantly higher at the Boadi (OR = 25.6, p = 0.0021) and Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Police Station Junctions (OR = 48.2, p < 0.001). Occupants of buses, heavy goods vehicles and riders of two wheelers were at elevated risk of deaths or serious injuries. Crash severity at the round abouts was aggravated by night-time, steep gradients and adverse cambers. It is recommended that, signalization and grade separation should be used in the current arrangement where appropriate.

Motorists' knowledge, attitudes and practices toward alcohol-impaired driving/riding in Ghana

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this study was to establish the knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward drink driving/riding as a risk factor for road traffic crashes in 3 regional capitals in Ghana.

METHODS

The study used a face-to-face approach to randomly sample motorists who were accessing various services at fuel/gas stations, garages, and lorry terminals in 3 cities in Ghana.

RESULTS

Over the previous 12 months, 24% of all motorists and 55% of motorists who were current alcohol users reported driving or riding a vehicle within an hour of alcohol intake. On average, motorists/riders who were current alcohol users consumed 4 standard drinks per drinking occasion. Generally, 83% of motorists who currently use alcohol walked, rode, or drove home after consuming alcohol away from their homes. Motorists/riders who reported drink driving were 4 times more likely to have had previous traffic violation arrests compared to those who reported no drink driving/riding (P =.001). Respondents were of the opinion that speeding was the major cause of traffic crashes, followed by driver carelessness, poor road conditions, inexperienced driving, and drink driving, in that order. Thirty-six percent of motorists who use alcohol had the perception that consuming between 6 and 15 standard drinks was the volume of alcohol that will take them to the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit of 0.08%. Compared to females, male motorists/riders were more likely to report drink driving (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 5.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.31 to 11.47). Private motorists also reported a higher likelihood of drink driving compared to commercial drivers (AOR = 3.36; 95% CI, 1.88 to 6.02). Only 4% of motorists knew the legal BAC limit of Ghana and only 2% had ever been tested for drink driving/riding.

CONCLUSION

The volumes of alcohol that motorists typically consume per drinking occasion were very high and their estimates of the number of drinks required to reach the legal BAC limit was also very high. Provision of authoritative information advising motorists about safe, responsible, or low-risk levels of alcohol consumption is imperative. Many traffic violations including drink driving were reported, thus suggesting a need for enhanced policing and enforcement. However, given the low level of knowledge of the legal BAC limit, educating motorists about how many drinks will approximate the legal BAC should be intensified prior to an increase in enforcement; otherwise, the desired outcome of enforcement may not be achieved.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving and riding in northern Ghana

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the roadside prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving among drivers and riders in northern Ghana. The study also verifies motorists' perceptions of their own alcohol use and knowledge of the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit in Ghana.

METHOD

With the assistance of police, systematic random sampling was used to collect data at roadblocks using a cross-sectional study design. Breathalyzers were used to screen whether motorists had detectable alcohol in their breath and follow-up breath tests were conducted to measure the actual breath alcohol levels among positive participants.

RESULTS

In all, 9.7% of the 789 participants had detectable alcohol, among whom 6% exceeded the legal BAC limit of 0.08%. The prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving/riding was highest among cyclists (10% of all cyclists breath-tested) followed by truck drivers (9%) and motorcyclists (7% of all motorcyclists breath-tested). The occurrence of a positive BAC among cyclists was about 8 times higher (odds ratio [OR] = 7.73; P < .001) and it was 2 times higher among motorcyclists (OR = 2.30; P = .039) compared to private car drivers. The likelihood for detecting a positive BAC among male motorists/riders was higher than that among females (OR = 1.67; P = .354). The odds for detecting a positive BAC among weekend motorists/riders was significantly higher than on weekdays (OR = 2.62; P = .001).

CONCLUSION

Alcohol-impaired driving/riding in Ghana is high by international standards. In order to attenuate the harmful effects of alcohol misuse such as alcohol-impaired driving/riding, there is the need to educate road users about how much alcohol they can consume and stay below the legal limit. The police should also initiate random breath testing to instill the deterrence of detection, certainty of apprehension and punishment, and severity and celerity of punishment among drink-driving motorists and riders.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pedestrians' injury patterns in Ghana

OBJECTIVE

To establish the associations between pedestrian injury and explanatory variables such as vehicular characteristics, temporal trends, and road environment.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of de-identified pedestrian crash data between 2002 and 2006 was conducted using the Building & Road Research Institute's crash data bank. We estimated the odds ratios associated with casualty fatalities using a multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 812 pedestrian casualties reported, out of which 33% were fatal, 45% sustained serious injuries requiring hospitalization, and 22% were slightly injured but were not hospitalized. Crossing the roadway accounted for over 70% of all pedestrians' deaths. Whereas fatalities in 2002 and 2003 were statistically indistinguishable from those of 2004 (p>0.05), in comparison with 2004, there were significantly fewer fatalities in 2005 and 2006 (78% and 65% reduction respectively). According to police report, the probability that a pedestrian fatality occurring in Ghana attributable to excessive speeding is 65%. The adjusted odds ratio of pedestrian fatality associated with speeding compared with driver inattentiveness was 3.6 (95% CI: 2.5-5.2). It was also observed that generally, lighter vehicular masses were associated with lower pedestrian fatalities. Compared with buses, pedestrians were less likely to die when struck by private cars (52%), pick-up trucks (57%), and motorcycles (86%).

CONCLUSION

Pedestrian death remains the leading cause of fatality among urban road users in Ghana. Risk factors associated with pedestrian fatality include being hit by heavy vehicles, speeding, and roadside activities such as street hawking, jaywalking and nighttime walking. Steps which may contribute to reducing pedestrian fatalities include measures to reduce vehicles speeds in settlements, providing traffic medians and lighting streets in settlements, and discouraging street and roadside activities such as hawking.

Assessment of vehicle speeds on different categories of roadways in Ghana

Empirical evidence from road safety literature suggests that vehicular speed is an important risk factor in the incidence and severity of road traffic crashes globally. Speed studies are at rudimentary stages in developing countries, thus making vehicular speed research imperative. The main aim of the study was to establish two major speed parameters, namely, the mean and dispersion, and their implications for more extensive and long-term speed monitoring in Ghana. Research workers stationed themselves in a parked car and used a radar gun to unobtrusively measure the travelling speeds of 28,489 vehicles at 15 different inter-urban locations on three highway categories. Excessive speeding is very pervasive on all highway categories in Ghana. Travelling speeds through settlements where a speed limit of 50 km/hour is mandatory were particularly excessive. Generally, 98%, 90% and 97% of vehicles exceeded the posted speed limit of 50 km/hour on national, inter-regional and regional roads respectively. Mean speeds and speed dispersions (as assessed by the standard deviations) through built-up areas were 81.3 +/- 17.3 km/hour on national roads, 64.7 +/- 12.3 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 72.6 +/- 13.4, km/hour on regional roads. On rural undivided highways with an 80 km/hour speed limit, mean and speed dispersions were 90 +/- 18.9 km/hour on national roads, 80.1 +/- 16 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 84.4 +/- 15.6 on regional roads; also translating into 66%, 47% and 60% of vehicles exceeding recommended speeds. In all cases, speed dispersions were notably higher than the value of 10 km/hour generally found in developed countries. Excessive speeding and wide speed dispersions are highly prevalent on Ghana's highways. These factors likely account for the high incidence of traffic crashes and fatalities in Ghana. An integrated speed monitoring and control programme and by-passing small and medium settlements would be required for the reduction of speed-related crashes, fatalities and injuries.