Telemedicine-Based Risk Program to Prevent Falls Among Older Adults: Protocol for a Randomized Quality Improvement Trial

BACKGROUND

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) initiative offers health care providers tools and resources to assist with fall risk screening and multifactorial fall risk assessment and interventions. Its effectiveness has never been evaluated in a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe the protocol for the STEADI Options Randomized Quality Improvement Trial (RQIT), which was designed to evaluate the impact on falls and all-cause health expenditures of a telemedicine-based form of STEADI implemented among older adults aged 65 years and older, within a primary care setting.

METHODS

STEADI Options was a pragmatic RQIT implemented within a health system comparing a telemedicine version of the STEADI fall risk assessment to the standard of care (SOC). Before screening, we randomized all eligible patients in participating clinics into the STEADI arm or SOC arm based on their scheduled provider. All received the Stay Independent screener (SIS) to determine fall risk. Patients were considered at risk for falls if they scored 4 or more on the SIS or answered affirmatively to any 1 of the 3 key questions within the SIS. Patients screened at risk for falls and randomized to the STEADI arm were offered a registered nurse (RN)-led STEADI assessment through telemedicine; the RN provided assessment results and recommendations to the providers, who were advised to discuss fall-prevention strategies with their patients. Patients screened at risk for falls and randomized to the SOC arm were asked to participate in study data collection only. Data on recruitment, STEADI assessments, use of recommended prevention services, medications, and fall occurrences were collected using electronic health records and patient surveys. Using staff time diaries and administrative records, the study prospectively collected data on STEADI implementation costs and all-cause outpatient and inpatient charges incurred over the year following enrollment.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 720 patients (n=307, 42.6% STEADI arm; n=353, 49% SOC arm; and n=60, 8.3% discontinued arm) from September 2020 to December 2021. Follow-up data collection was completed in January 2023. As of February 2024, data analysis is complete, and results are expected to be published by the end of 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

The STEADI RQIT evaluates the impact of a telemedicine-based, STEADI-based fall risk assessment on falls and all-cause health expenditures and can provide information on the intervention's effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05390736, http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05390736.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/54395.

Vision Need Profiles for the City of Richmond, Virginia: A Pilot Application of Calibration Methods to Vision Surveillance

Purpose

People with vision problems (VPs) have different needs based on their age, economic resources, housing type, neighborhood, and other disabilities. We used calibration methods to create synthetic data to estimate census tract-level community need profiles (CNPs) for the city of Richmond, Virginia.

Design

Cross-sectional secondary data analysis.

Subjects

Anonymized respondents to the 2015 to 2019 American Community Survey (ACS).

Methods

We used calibration methods to transform the ACS 5-year tabular (2015-2019) and Public Use Microdata estimates into a synthetic data set of person-level records in each census tract, and subset the data to persons who answered yes to the question "Are you blind or do you have serious difficulty seeing even when wearing glasses?" To identify individual need profiles (INPs), we applied divisive clustering to 17 variables measuring individual demographics, nonvision disability status, socioeconomic status (SES), housing, and access and independence. We labeled tracts with CNP names based on their predominant INPs and performed sensitivity analyses. We mapped the CNPs and overlayed information on the number of people with VP, the National Walkability Index, and an uncertainty measure based on our sensitivity analysis.

Main Outcome Measures

Individual need profiles and CNPs.

Results

Compared with people without VP, people with VP exhibited higher rates of disabilities, having low incomes, living alone, and lacking access to the internet or private home vehicles. Among people with VP, we identified 7 INP clusters which we mapped into 6 CNPs: (1) seniors (≥ age 65); (2) low SES younger; (3) low SES older; (4) mixed SES; (5) higher SES; and (6) adults and children in group quarters. Three CNPs had lower-than-average walkability. Community need profile assignments were somewhat sensitive to calibration variables, with 18 tracts changing assignments in 1 sensitivity analysis, and 4 tracts changing assignments in ≥ 2 sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

This pilot project illustrates the feasibility of using ACS data to better understand the support and service needs of people with VP at the census tract level. However, a subset of categorical CNP assignments were sensitive to variable selection leading to uncertainty in CNP assignment in certain tracts.

Financial Disclosures

The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

The prevalence of bilateral hearing loss in the United States in 2019: a small area estimation modelling approach for obtaining national, state, and county level estimates by demographic subgroup

Background

The goal of this study was to re-estimate rates of bilateral hearing loss Nationally, and create new estimates of hearing loss prevalence at the U.S. State and County levels.

Methods

We developed small area estimation models of mild, and moderate or worse bilateral hearing loss in the U.S. using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001-2012, 2015-2018), the American Community Survey (2019), Census County Business Patterns (2019); Social Security Administration Data (2019); Medicare Fee-for-Service and Advantage claims data (2019); the Area Health Resources File (2019), and other sources. We defined hearing loss as mild (>25 dB through 40 dB), moderate or worse (>40 dB), or any (>25 dB) in the better hearing ear based on a 4-frequency pure-tone-average threshold, and created estimates by age group (0-4, 5-17, 18-34, 35-64, 65-74, 75+), gender, race and ethnicity, state, and county.

Findings

We estimated that 37.9 million (95% Uncertainty Interval [U.I.] 36.6-39.1) Americans experienced any bilateral hearing loss; 24.9 million (95% U.I. 23.6-26.0) with mild and 13.0 million (95% U.I. 12.1-13.9) with moderate or worse. The prevalence rate of any hearing loss was 11.6% (95% U.I. 11.2%-12.0%). Hearing loss increased with age. Men were more likely to have hearing loss than women after age 35, and non-Hispanic Whites had higher rates of hearing loss than other races and ethnicities. Higher hearing loss prevalence was associated with smaller population size. West Virginia, Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Arkansas had the highest standardised rate of bilateral hearing loss, and Washington D.C., New Jersey, New York, Maryland, and Connecticut had the lowest.

Interpretation

Bilateral Hearing loss varies by State and County, with variation associated with population age, race and ethnicity, and population size. Geographic estimates can be used to raise local awareness of hearing loss as a problem, to prioritize areas for hearing loss prevention, identification, and treatment, and to guide future research on the hearing loss risk factors that contribute to these differences.

Funding

CDC's National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Population Health.

Older adults' knowledge and perception of fall risk and prevention: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Falls are a leading cause of injury and mortality among older adults. While multiple strategies are effective at reducing fall risk, uptake is low. Understanding how older adults think about fall risk and prevention activities can inform outreach initiatives and engagement.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, SCOPUS and Google Scholar for articles published between January 2015 and April 2023. Studies were eligible if they reported on knowledge or perception of fall risk and/or prevention among community-dwelling older adults.

RESULTS

We included 53 studies from 20 different countries. Over half of the studies used qualitative methods, 19 used quantitative, and three used mixed methods. Most of the older adults could identify some fall risk factors and the consequences of falls. However, many older adults did not view themselves as at-risk for falls. Some older adults consider falls an inevitable part of ageing, while others believe that falls can be prevented. Cultural context may play a role in shaping these beliefs. Several studies reported on older adults' experiences and the perceived barriers and facilitators of participating in fall prevention activities.

CONCLUSION

Improving the accuracy of older adults' perceptions of their own fall risk and highlighting the fact that many falls are preventable are two key messages that may help motivate older adults to take action to prevent falls. Older adults cite their healthcare provider as a trusted source of prevention information, and clinicians can leverage this opportunity to inform and motivate older adult patients about fall prevention.

Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy in the US in 2021

Importance

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a common microvascular complication of diabetes and a leading cause of blindness among working-age adults in the US.

Objective

To update estimates of DR and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) prevalence by demographic factors and US county and state.

Data Sources

The study team included data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005 to 2008 and 2017 to March 2020), Medicare fee-for-service claims (2018), IBM MarketScan commercial insurance claims (2016), population-based studies of adult eye disease (2001 to 2016), 2 studies of diabetes in youth (2021 and 2023), and a previously published analysis of diabetes by county (2012). The study team used population estimates from the US Census Bureau.

Study Selection

The study team included relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Using bayesian meta-regression methods, the study team estimated the prevalence of DR and VTDR stratified by age, a nondifferentiated sex and gender measure, race, ethnicity, and US county and state.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The study team defined individuals with diabetes as those who had a hemoglobin A1c level at 6.5% or more, took insulin, or reported ever having been told by a physician or health care professional that they have diabetes. The study team defined DR as any retinopathy in the presence of diabetes, including nonproliferative retinopathy (mild, moderate, or severe), proliferative retinopathy, or macular edema. The study team defined VTDR as having, in the presence of diabetes, severe nonproliferative retinopathy, proliferative retinopathy, panretinal photocoagulation scars, or macular edema.

Results

This study used data from nationally representative and local population-based studies that represent the populations in which they were conducted. For 2021, the study team estimated 9.60 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.90-11.55) living with DR, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 26.43% (95% UI, 21.95-31.60) among people with diabetes. The study team estimated 1.84 million people (95% UI, 1.41-2.40) living with VTDR, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 5.06% (95% UI, 3.90-6.57) among people with diabetes. Prevalence of DR and VTDR varied by demographic characteristics and geography.

Conclusions and Relevance

US prevalence of diabetes-related eye disease remains high. These updated estimates on the burden and geographic distribution of diabetes-related eye disease can be used to inform the allocation of public health resources and interventions to communities and populations at highest risk.

Effectiveness evaluation of a hypertension management program in a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC)

The objective of this study was to examine effectiveness of a Hypertension Management Program (HMP) in a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC). From September 2018 through December 2019, we implemented HMP in seven clinics of an FQHC in rural South Carolina. A pre/post evaluation design estimated the association of HMP with hypertension control rates and systolic blood pressure using electronic health record data among 3,941 patients. A chi-square test estimated change in mean control rates in pre- and intervention periods. A multilevel multivariable logistic regression model estimated the incremental impact of HMP on odds of hypertension control. Results showed that 53.4% of patients had controlled hypertension pre-intervention (September 2016-September 2018); 57.3% had controlled hypertension at the end of the observed implementation period (September 2018-December 2019) (p < 0.01). Statistically significant increases in hypertension control rates were observed in six of seven clinics (p < 0.05). Odds of controlled hypertension were 1.21 times higher during the intervention period compared to pre-intervention (p < 0.0001). Findings can inform the replication of HMP in FQHCs and similar health care settings, which play a pivotal role in caring for patients with health and socioeconomic disparities.

Validity of Administrative Claims and Electronic Health Registry Data From a Single Practice for Eye Health Surveillance

Importance

Diagnostic information from administrative claims and electronic health record (EHR) data may serve as an important resource for surveillance of vision and eye health, but the accuracy and validity of these sources are unknown.

Objective

To estimate the accuracy of diagnosis codes in administrative claims and EHRs compared to retrospective medical record review.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study compared the presence and prevalence of eye disorders based on diagnostic codes in EHR and claims records vs clinical medical record review at University of Washington-affiliated ophthalmology or optometry clinics from May 2018 to April 2020. Patients 16 years and older with an eye examination in the previous 2 years were included, oversampled for diagnosed major eye diseases and visual acuity loss.

Exposures

Patients were assigned to vision and eye health condition categories based on diagnosis codes present in their billing claims history and EHR using the diagnostic case definitions of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System (VEHSS) as well as clinical assessment based on retrospective medical record review.

Main Outcome and Measures

Accuracy was measured as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of claims and EHR-based diagnostic coding vs retrospective review of clinical assessments and treatment plans.

Results

Among 669 participants (mean [range] age, 66.1 [16-99] years; 357 [53.4%] female), identification of diseases in billing claims and EHR data using VEHSS case definitions was accurate for diabetic retinopathy (claims AUC, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.98; EHR AUC, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99), glaucoma (claims AUC, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.88-0.93; EHR AUC, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95), age-related macular degeneration (claims AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83-0.92; EHR AUC, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.98), and cataracts (claims AUC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.86; EHR AUC, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.89-0.93). However, several condition categories showed low validity with AUCs below 0.7, including diagnosed disorders of refraction and accommodation (claims AUC, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.49-0.60; EHR AUC, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56-0.67), diagnosed blindness and low vision (claims AUC, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.53-0.58; EHR AUC, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.54-0.59), and orbital and external diseases (claims AUC, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.57-0.69; EHR AUC, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.59-0.70).

Conclusion and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of current and recent ophthalmology patients with high rates of eye disorders and vision loss, identification of major vision-threatening eye disorders based on diagnosis codes in claims and EHR records was accurate. However, vision loss, refractive error, and other broadly defined or lower-risk disorder categories were less accurately identified by diagnosis codes in claims and EHR data.

Association Between Social Determinants of Health and Examination-Based Vision Loss vs Self-reported Vision Measures

Importance

Recent evidence suggests that social determinants of health (SDOH) affect vision loss, but it is unclear whether estimated associations differ between clinically evaluated and self-reported vision loss.

Objective

To identify associations between SDOH and evaluated vision impairment and to assess whether these associations hold when examining self-reported vision loss.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cross-sectional comparison included participants 12 years and older in the 2005 to 2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), participants of all ages (infants and older) in the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS), and adults 18 years and older in the 2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS).

Exposures

Five domains of SDOH that are based on Healthy People 2030: economic stability, education access and quality, health care access and quality, neighborhood and built environment, and social and community context.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Presenting vision impairment of 20/40 or worse in the better-seeing eye (NHANES) and self-reported blindness or serious difficulty seeing, even with glasses (ACS and BRFSS).

Results

Of 3 649 085 included participants, 1 873 893 were female (51.1%) and 2 504 206 were White (64.4%). SDOH across domains of economic stability, educational attainment, health care access and quality, neighborhood and built environment, and social context were significant predictors of poor vision. For example, higher income (poverty to income ratio [NHANES]: OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98; [ACS]: OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.93-0.94; categorical income [BRFSS:<$15 000 reference]: $15 000-$24 999; OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.91-0.91; $25 000-$34 999: OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.80-0.80; $35 000-$49 999: OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.71-0.72; ≥$50 000: OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.49-0.49), employment (BRFSS: OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.66-0.66; ACS: OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.54-0.55), and owning a home (NHANES: OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00; BRFSS: OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.82-0.82; ACS: OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.79-0.79) were associated with lower odds of vision loss. The study team identified no differences in the general direction of the associations when using either clinically evaluated or self-reported vision measures.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study team found evidence that associations between SDOH and vision impairment track together when using either clinically evaluated or self-reported vision loss. These findings support the use of self-reported vision data in a surveillance system to track trends in SDOH and vision health outcomes within subnational geographies.

Trends in the Prevalence and Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema and Vision-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy Among Commercially Insured Adults Aged <65 Years

OBJECTIVE

Examine the 10-year trend in the prevalence and treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among commercially insured adults with diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed the 10-year trend (2009-2018) in health care claims for adults aged 18-64 years using the IBM MarketScan Database, a national convenience sample of employer-sponsored health insurance. We included patients continuously enrolled in commercial fee-for-service health insurance for 24 months who had a diabetes ICD-9/10-CM code on one or more inpatient or two or more different-day outpatient claims in the index year or previous calendar year. We used diagnosis and procedure codes to calculate the annual prevalence of patients with one or more claims for 1) any DME, 2) either DME or VTDR, and 3) antivascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) injections and laser photocoagulation treatment, stratified by any DME, VTDR with DME, and VTDR without DME. We calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC).

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2018, there was an increase in the annual prevalence of patients with DME or VTDR (2.1% to 3.4%; AAPC 7.5%; P < 0.001) and any DME (0.7% to 2.6%; AAPC 19.8%; P < 0.001). There were sex differences in the annual prevalence of DME or VTDR and any DME, with men having a higher prevalence than women. Annual claims for anti-VEGF injections increased among patients with any DME (327%) and VTDR with DME (206%); laser photocoagulation decreased among patients with any DME (-68%), VTDR with DME (-54%), and VTDR without DME (-62%).

CONCLUSIONS

Annual claims for DME or VTDR and anti-VEGF injections increased whereas those for laser photocoagulation decreased among commercially insured adults with diabetes.

Comparing Telephone Survey Responses to Best-Corrected Visual Acuity to Estimate the Accuracy of Identifying Vision Loss: Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Self-reported questions on blindness and vision problems are collected in many national surveys. Recently released surveillance estimates on the prevalence of vision loss used self-reported data to predict variation in the prevalence of objectively measured acuity loss among population groups for whom examination data are not available. However, the validity of self-reported measures to predict prevalence and disparities in visual acuity has not been established.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of self-reported vision loss measures compared to best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), inform the design and selection of questions for future data collection, and identify the concordance between self-reported vision and measured acuity at the population level to support ongoing surveillance efforts.

METHODS

We calculated accuracy and correlation between self-reported visual function versus BCVA at the individual and population level among patients from the University of Washington ophthalmology or optometry clinics with a prior eye examination, randomly oversampled for visual acuity loss or diagnosed eye diseases. Self-reported visual function was collected via telephone survey. BCVA was determined based on retrospective chart review. Diagnostic accuracy of questions at the person level was measured based on the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), whereas population-level accuracy was determined based on correlation.

RESULTS

The survey question, "Are you blind or do you have serious difficulty seeing, even when wearing glasses?" had the highest accuracy for identifying patients with blindness (BCVA ≤20/200; AUC=0.797). The highest accuracy for detecting any vision loss (BCVA <20/40) was achieved by responses of "fair," "poor," or "very poor" to the question, "At the present time, would you say your eyesight, with glasses or contact lenses if you wear them, is excellent, good, fair, poor, or very poor" (AUC=0.716). At the population level, the relative relationship between prevalence based on survey questions and BCVA remained stable for most demographic groups, with the only exceptions being groups with small sample sizes, and these differences were generally not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Although survey questions are not considered to be sufficiently accurate to be used as a diagnostic test at the individual level, we did find relatively high levels of accuracy for some questions. At the population level, we found that the relative prevalence of the 2 most accurate survey questions were highly correlated with the prevalence of measured visual acuity loss among nearly all demographic groups. The results of this study suggest that self-reported vision questions fielded in national surveys are likely to yield an accurate and stable signal of vision loss across different population groups, although the actual measure of prevalence from these questions is not directly analogous to that of BCVA.

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the US in 2019

Importance

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss and blindness. AMD prevalence has not been estimated for the US in over a decade and early-stage AMD prevalence estimates are scarce and inconsistently measured.

Objective

To produce estimates of early- and late-stage AMD prevalence overall and by age, gender, race and ethnicity, county, and state.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The study team conducted a bayesian meta-regression analysis of relevant data sources containing information on the prevalence of AMD among different population groups in the US.

Data Sources

We included data from the American Community Survey (2019), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2008), US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims for fee-for-service beneficiaries (2018), and population-based studies (2004-2016).

Study Selection

We included all relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The prevalence of early- and late-stage AMD was estimated and stratified when possible by factors including county, age group, gender, and race and ethnicity. Data analysis occurred from June 2021 to April 2022.

Main Outcomes or Measures

The prevalence of early- (defined as retinal pigment epithelium abnormalities or the presence of drusen 125 or more microns in diameter in either eye) and late-stage (defined as choroidal neovascularization and/or geographic atrophy in either eye) manifestations of AMD.

Results

This study used data from nationally representative and local population-based studies that represent the populations in which they were conducted. For 2019, we estimated that there were 18.34 million people 40 years and older (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 15.30-22.03) living with early-stage AMD, corresponding to a crude prevalence rate of 11.64% (95% UI, 9.71-13.98). We estimated there were 1.49 million people 40 years and older (95% UI, 0.97-2.15) living with late-stage AMD, corresponding to a crude prevalence rate of 0.94% (95% UI, 0.62-1.36). Prevalence rates of early- and late-stage AMD varied by demographic characteristics and geography.

Conclusions and Relevance

We estimated a higher prevalence of early-stage AMD and a similar prevalence of late-stage AMD as compared with earlier studies. State-level and county-level AMD estimates may help guide public health practice.

Evaluating Evidence-Informed Behavioral Health Models to Improve HIV Health Outcomes: Quantitative Findings from the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program Special Projects of National Significance Black Men Who Have Sex with Men Initiative

The Black Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) Initiative was implemented at eight sites to engage and retain Black MSM in HIV medical care and supportive services (SS) by addressing their behavioral health (BH) care needs. Using a pre-post design and generalized logistic mixed-effects models adjusting for patient-level random effects, site, baseline age, and baseline mental health status, we evaluated whether participants experienced increased postintervention attainment of (1) Awareness of HIV medical care, BH care, and SS; (2) Screening, referral, linkage, receipt, and engagement in HIV care, BH care, and SS; and (3) Retention, antiretroviral therapy prescription, and suppressed viral load. Among 758 evaluated participants, the proportion of participants who were aware of, screened for, screened positive for, and referred to BH and SS, retention in care (72% to 79%), and viral load suppression (68% to 75%) increased between baseline and postintervention. Among participants who screened positive and received BH services were statistically more likely to be linked to [OR, 1.34 (95% CI: 1.08-1.66)] and retained in [OR, 1.36 (95% CI: 1.00-1.83)] care. Among those who screened positive and received SS were statistically more likely to be retained in care [OR, 1.54 (95% CI: 1.07-2.22)]. Measures of linkage to care declined significantly during the study period, perhaps because of COVID-19 that delayed in-person care. This study suggests that interventions designed to increase utilization of BH services and SS can be effective at improving retention in care and viral load suppression among Black MSM, at least among those currently using HIV services.

Trends in Prevalence and Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema and Vision-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy Among Medicare Part B Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

While diabetes prevalence among US adults has increased in recent decades, few studies document trends in diabetes-related eye disease.

OBJECTIVE

To examine 10-year trends (2009-2018) in annual prevalence of Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes with a diagnosis of diabetic macular edema (DME) or vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) and trends in treatment.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services research identifiable files, data for patients 65 years and older were analyzed from claims. Beneficiaries were continuously enrolled in Medicare Part B fee-for-service (FFS) insurance for the calendar year and had a diagnosis of diabetes on 1 or more inpatient claims or 2 or more outpatient claims during the calendar year or a 1-year look-back period.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Using diagnosis and procedure codes, annual prevalence was determined for beneficiaries with 1 or more claims for (1) any DME, (2) either DME or VTDR, and (3) anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injections, laser photocoagulation, or vitrectomy, stratified by any DME, VTDR with DME, and VTDR without DME. Racial and ethnic disparities in diagnosis and treatment are presented for 2018.

RESULTS

In 2018, 6 960 823 beneficiaries (27.4%) had diabetes; half were aged 65 to 74 years (49.7%), half (52.7%) were women, and 75.7% were non-Hispanic White. From 2009 to 2018, there was an increase in the annual prevalence of beneficiaries with diabetes who had 1 or more claims for any DME (1.0% to 3.3%) and DME/VTDR (2.8% to 4.3%). Annual prevalence of anti-VEGF increased, particularly among patients with any DME (15.7% to 35.2%) or VTDR with DME (20.2% to 47.6%). Annual prevalence of laser photocoagulation decreased among those with any DME (45.5% to 12.5%), VTDR with DME (54.0% to 20.3%), and VTDR without DME (22.5% to 5.8%). Among all 3 groups, prevalence of vitrectomy in 2018 was less than half that in 2009. Prevalence of any DME and DME/VTDR was highest among Hispanic beneficiaries (5.0% and 7.0%, respectively) and Black beneficiaries (4.5% and 6.2%, respectively) and lowest among non-Hispanic White beneficiaries (3.0% and 3.8%, respectively). Among those with DME/VTDR, anti-VEGF was most prevalent among non-Hispanic White beneficiaries (30.3%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

From 2009 to 2018, prevalence of DME or VTDR increased among Medicare Part B FFS beneficiaries alongside an increase in anti-VEGF treatment and a decline in laser photocoagulation and vitrectomy.

High-Risk Injection-Related Practices Associated with anti-HCV Positivity among Young Adults Seeking Services in Three Small Cities in Wisconsin

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been increasing among people who inject drugs (PWID), younger than 30 years, and living in rural or suburban areas. We examined injection-related behaviors of young PWID to determine factors associated with HCV infection.

METHODS

From September 2013-May 2015, respondent-driven and snowball sampling were used in 3 suburban areas of Wisconsin to recruit PWID 18-29 years who reported injection drug use in the previous 12 months. Participants were tested for HCV antibody (anti-HCV) and reported injection-related behaviors/practices via self-administered computer-based survey. We calculated anti-HCV prevalence and assessed associated factors using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Forty-two percent (117/280) of participants were male, 83% (231/280) were white, and median age was 23 years. Overall HCV prevalence was 33%, but HCV prevalence among males was 39%. Adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, relationship status, insurance status and income, anti-HCV positivity was associated with higher injection frequency (> 100 times in the past six months) (aOR = 3.07; 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.72-5.45), ever shared syringes (aOR = 5.15; 95% CI: 2.52-10.51), past week/last use receptive rinse water sharing (aOR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.06-3.33), past week/last use receptive filter sharing (aOR = 3.25; 95% CI: 1.61-6.54), reusing syringes (aOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.08-3.37), history of overdose (aOR = 8.82; 95% CI: 2.26-3.95), and having ever injected another PWID (aOR = 8.82; 95%CI 3.94-19.76).

DISCUSSION

Anti-HCV positivity is associated with high-risk injection practices. Young PWID would benefit from access to evidence-based interventions that reduce their risk of infection, link those infected to HCV treatment, and provide education to reduce further transmission.

The Economic Burden of Vision Loss and Blindness in the United States

PURPOSE

To estimate the economic burden of vision loss (VL) in the United States and by state.

DESIGN

Analysis of secondary data sources (American Community Survey [ACS], American Time Use Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey [MEPS], National and State Health Expenditure Accounts, and National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]) using attributable fraction, regression, and other methods to estimate the incremental direct and indirect 2017 costs of VL.

PARTICIPANTS

People with a yes response to a question asking if they are blind or have serious difficulty seeing even when wearing glasses in the ACS, MEPS, or NHIS.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated the direct costs of medical, nursing home (NH), and supportive services and the indirect costs of absenteeism, lost household production, reduced labor force participation, and informal care by age group, sex, and state in aggregate and per person with VL.

RESULTS

We estimated an economic burden of VL of $134.2 billion: $98.7 billion in direct costs and $35.5 billion in indirect costs. The largest burden components were NH ($41.8 billion), other medical care services ($30.9 billion), and reduced labor force participation ($16.2 billion), all of which accounted for 66% of the total. Those with VL incurred $16 838 per year in incremental burden. Informal care was the largest burden component for people 0 to 18 years of age, reduced labor force participation was the largest burden component for people 19 to 64 years of age, and NH costs were the largest burden component for people 65 years of age or older. New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont experienced the highest costs per person with VL. Sensitivity analyses indicate total burden may range between $76 and $218 billion depending on the assumptions used in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported VL imposes a substantial economic burden on the United States. Burden accrues in different ways at different ages, leading to state differences in the composition of per-person costs based on the age composition of the population with VL. Information on state variation can help local decision makers target resources better to address the burden of VL.

The Prevalence of Diagnosis of Major Eye Diseases and their Associated Payments in the Medicare Fee-for-Service Program

PURPOSE

To estimate the prevalence of diagnosis of major eye disorders and their associated payments, in total and per-person diagnosed, among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries in 2018.

METHODS

We analyzed 100% Medicare Part B FFS claims and Part D Events among beneficiaries continuously enrolled for 12 months in 2018 to calculate the proportion of beneficiaries with ≥1 claim indicating age-related macular degeneration (AMD), cataract, diabetic retinopathy (DR), or glaucoma, and their associated payments, including Medicare and patient out-of-pocket. Eye disease and eye care services were identified using case definitions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Vision & Eye Health Surveillance System (VEHSS). Outcomes are reported by disease overall and by age group (0-39, 40-64, 65-84, 85+ years), sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. state.

RESULTS

Among nearly 30 million Medicare Part B FFS beneficiaries in 2018, over 41% (12.4 million) had a claim containing a diagnosis of at least one of the four eye disorders; 33.7% with cataract, 13.3% with glaucoma, 9.2% with AMD and 3.2% with DR. Payments for eye care services and drugs associated with these four conditions were $10.1billion; $3.6 billion for cataract, $3.5 billion for AMD, $2.2 billion for glaucoma and $0.8 billion for DR. The average cost per beneficiary diagnosed was $816: $1,290 for AMD, $781 for DR, $543 for glaucoma, and $360 for cataract.

CONCLUSIONS

Major eye disorders are common among Medicare FFS beneficiaries and account for approximately 4.3% of Medicare Part B and 1% of Medicare Part D spending.

Prevalence of Visual Acuity Loss or Blindness in the US: A Bayesian Meta-analysis

Importance

Globally, more than 250 million people live with visual acuity loss or blindness, and people in the US fear losing vision more than memory, hearing, or speech. But it appears there are no recent empirical estimates of visual acuity loss or blindness for the US.

Objective

To produce estimates of visual acuity loss and blindness by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US state.

Data Sources

Data from the American Community Survey (2017), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2008), and National Survey of Children's Health (2017), as well as population-based studies (2000-2013), were included.

Study Selection

All relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System were included.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The prevalence of visual acuity loss or blindness was estimated, stratified when possible by factors including US state, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and community-dwelling or group-quarters status. Data analysis occurred from March 2018 to March 2020.

Main Outcomes or Measures

The prevalence of visual acuity loss (defined as a best-corrected visual acuity greater than or equal to 0.3 logMAR) and blindness (defined as a logMAR of 1.0 or greater) in the better-seeing eye.

Results

For 2017, this meta-analysis generated an estimated US prevalence of 7.08 (95% uncertainty interval, 6.32-7.89) million people living with visual acuity loss, of whom 1.08 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.82-1.30) million people were living with blindness. Of this, 1.62 (95% uncertainty interval, 1.32-1.92) million persons with visual acuity loss are younger than 40 years, and 141 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 95 000-187 000) persons with blindness are younger than 40 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

This analysis of all available data with modern methods produced estimates substantially higher than those previously published.

Vision Impairment and Blindness Prevalence in the United States: Variability of Vision Health Responses across Multiple National Surveys

PURPOSE

To support survey validation efforts by comparing prevalence rates of self-reported and examination evaluated presenting visual impairment (VI) and blindness measured across national surveys.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional comparison.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants in the 2016 American Community Survey, the 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the 2016 National Health Interview Survey, the 2005-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and the 2016 National Survey of Children's Health.

METHODS

We estimated VI and blindness prevalence rates and confidence intervals for each survey measure and age group using the Clopper-Pearson method. We used inverse variance weighting to estimate the central tendency across measures by age-group, fitted trend lines to age-group estimates, and used the trend-line equations to estimate the number of United States persons with VI and blindness in 2016. We compared self-report estimates with those from NHANES physical evaluations of presenting VI and blindness.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Variability of prevalence estimates of VI and blindness.

RESULTS

Self-report estimates of blindness varied between 0.1% and 5.6% for those younger than 65 years and from 0.6% to 16.6% for those 65 or older. Estimates of VI varied between 1.6% and 24.8% for those younger than 65 years and between 2.2% and 26.6% for those 65 years or older. For summarized survey results and NHANES physical evaluation, prevalence rates for VI increased significantly with increasing age group. Blindness prevalence increased significantly with increasing age group for summarized survey responses but not for NHANES physical examination. Based on extrapolations of NHANES physical examination data to all ages, we estimated that in 2016, 23.4 million persons in the United States (7.2%) had VI or blindness, an evaluated presenting visual acuity of 20/40 or worse in the better-seeing eye before correction. Based on weighted self-reported surveys, we estimated that 24.8 million persons (7.7%) had presenting VI or blindness.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence rates of VI and blindness obtained from national survey measures varied widely across surveys and age groups. Additional research is needed to validate the ability of survey self-report measures of VI and blindness to replicate results obtained through examination by an eye health professional.

Hepatitis C care cascade among persons born 1945-1965: 3 medical centers

OBJECTIVES

Effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment are needed to reduce chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection-associated morbidity and mortality. In order to successfully increase HCV treatment, it is necessary to identify and understand gaps in linkage of antibody-positive patients with newly identified HCV to subsequent HCV RNA testing, clinical evaluation, and treatment.

STUDY DESIGN

To estimate attainment of HCV care cascade steps among antibody-positive patients with newly identified HCV, we conducted chart reviews of patients with a new positive HCV antibody test at 3 academic medical centers participating in the Birth-Cohort Evaluation to Advance Screening and Testing of Hepatitis C (BEST-C) study.

METHODS

We tracked receipt of RNA testing, clinical evaluation, treatment initiation, and treatment completion among individuals born between 1945 and 1965 who were newly diagnosed as HCV antibody-positive between December 2012 and October 2015 at 3 BEST-C centers, predominantly from the participating medical centers' primary care practices and emergency departments.

RESULTS

Of the 130 HCV-seropositive individuals identified, 118 (91%) had an RNA or genotype test, 75 (58%) were RNA-positive, 73 (56%) were linked to care, 22 (17% overall; 29% among RNA-positive) started treatment, and 21 (16%; 28% among RNA-positive) completed treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis showed that although linkage to care was largely successful in the target birth cohort, the largest gap in the HCV care cascade was seen in initiating treatment. Greater emphasis on linking patients to clinical evaluation and treatment is necessary in order to achieve the public health benefits promised by birth-cohort testing.

Hepatitis C virus testing for case identification in persons born during 1945-1965: Results from three randomized controlled trials

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US Preventive Services Task Force recommend one-time hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing for persons born during 1945-1965 (birth cohort). However, few studies estimate the effect of birth cohort (BC) testing implementation on HCV diagnoses in primary care settings. We aimed to determine the probability of identifying HCV infections in primary care using targeted BC testing compared with usual care at three academic medical centers. From December 2012 to March 2014, each center compared one of three distinct interventions with usual care using an independently designed randomized controlled trial. Across centers, BC patients with no clinical documentation of previous HCV testing or diagnosis were randomly assigned to receive a one-time offering of HCV antibody (anti-HCV) testing via one of three independent implementation strategies (repeated-mailing outreach, electronic medical record-integrated provider best practice alert [BPA], and direct patient solicitation) or assigned to receive usual care. We estimated model-adjusted risk ratios (aRR) of anti-HCV-positive (anti-HCV+) identification using BC testing versus usual care. In the repeated mailing trial, 8992 patients (intervention, n = 2993; control, n = 5999) were included in the analysis. The intervention was eight times as likely to identify anti-HCV+ patients compared with controls (aRR, 8.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-23.0; adjusted probabilities: intervention, 0.27%; control, 0.03%). In the BPA trial, data from 14,475 patients (BC, n = 8928; control, n = 5,547) were analyzed. The intervention was 2.6 times as likely to identify anti-HCV+ patients versus controls (aRR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.4; adjusted probabilities: intervention, 0.29%; control, 0.11%). In the patient-solicitation trial, 8873 patients (BC, n = 4307; control, n = 4566) were analyzed. The intervention was five times as likely to identify anti-HCV+ patients compared with controls (aRR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.3-12.3; adjusted probabilities: intervention, 0.68%; control, 0.11%). Conclusion: BC testing was effective in identifying previously undiagnosed HCV infections in primary care settings. (Hepatology 2018;67:524-533).

Uptake of hepatitis C screening, characteristics of patients tested, and intervention costs in the BEST-C study

From December 2012 to March 2014, three randomized trials, each implementing a unique intervention in primary care settings (repeated mailing, an electronic health record best practice alert [BPA], and patient solicitation), evaluated hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody testing, diagnosis, and costs for each of the interventions compared with standard-of-care testing. Multilevel multivariable models were used to estimate the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) for receiving an HCV antibody test, and costs were estimated using activity-based costing. The goal of this study was to estimate the effects of interventions conducted as part of the Birth-Cohort Evaluation to Advance Screening and Testing for Hepatitis C study on HCV testing and costs among persons of the 1945-1965 birth cohort (BC). Intervention resulted in substantially higher HCV testing rates compared with standard-of-care testing (26.9% versus 1.4% for repeated mailing, 30.9% versus 3.6% for BPA, and 63.5% versus 2.0% for patient solicitation) and significantly higher aRR for testing after controlling for sex, birth year, race, insurance type, and median household income (19.2 [95% confidence interval (CI), 9.7-38.2] for repeated mailing, 13.2 [95% CI, 3.6-48.6] for BPA, and 32.9 [95% CI, 19.3-56.1] for patient solicitation). The BPA intervention had the lowest incremental cost per completed test ($24 with fixed startup costs, $3 without) and also the lowest incremental cost per new case identified after omitting fixed startup costs ($1691).

CONCLUSION

HCV testing interventions resulted in an increase in BC testing compared with standard-of-care testing but also increased costs. The effect size and incremental costs of BPA intervention (excluding startup costs) support more widespread adoption compared with the other interventions. (Hepatology 2017;65:44-53).

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013.

METHODS

We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementation of Birth-Cohort Testing for Hepatitis C Virus

Hepatitis C virus infection affects approximately 2.2 to 3.2 million Americans. In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended a one-time antibody test of all persons belonging to the 1945-1965 birth cohort. Efforts to implement this recommendation in clinical settings are in their infancy; this case study report therefore seeks to share the experiences of three sites that implemented interventions to increase birth-cohort testing through participation in the Birth-cohort Evaluation to Advance Screening and Testing for Hepatitis C. At each site, project managers completed standardized questionnaires about their implementation experiences, and a qualitative analysis was conducted of the responses. The testing interventions used in-person recruitment, mail recruitment, and an electronic health record prompt. Sites reported that early efforts to obtain stakeholder buy-in were critical to effectively implement and sustain interventions and that the intervention required additional staffing resources beyond those being used for risk-based testing. In each case, administrative barriers were more extensive than anticipated. For the electronic health record-based intervention, technological support was critical in achieving study goals. Despite these barriers, interventions in all sites were successful in increasing rates of testing and case identification, although future studies will need to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of each intervention.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of catch-up hepatitis A vaccination among unvaccinated/partially-vaccinated children

BACKGROUND

Since 2006, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended hepatitis A (HepA) vaccination routinely for children aged 12-23months to prevent hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection. However, a substantial proportion of US children are unvaccinated and susceptible to infection. We present results of economic modeling to assess whether a one-time catch-up HepA vaccination recommendation would be cost-effective.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model of HAV infection that followed a single cohort from birth through death (birth to age 95years). The model compared the health and economic outcomes from catch-up vaccination interventions for children at target ages from two through 17years vs. outcomes resulting from maintaining the current recommendation of routine vaccination at age one year with no catch-up intervention.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime of the cohort, catch-up vaccination would reduce the total number of infections relative to the baseline by 741 while increasing doses of vaccine by 556,989. Catch-up vaccination would increase net costs by $10.2million, or $2.38 per person. The incremental cost of HepA vaccine catch-up intervention at age 10years, the midpoint of the ages modeled, was $452,239 per QALY gained. Across age-cohorts, the cost-effectiveness of catch-up vaccination is most favorable at age 12years, resulting in an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of $189,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the low baseline of HAV disease incidence achieved by current vaccination recommendations, our economic model suggests that a catch-up vaccination recommendation would be less cost-effective than many other vaccine interventions, and that HepA catch-up vaccination would become cost effective at a threshold of $50,000 per QALY only when incidence of HAV rises about 5.0 cases per 100,000 population.

The burden of hepatitis C to the United States Medicare system in 2009: Descriptive and economic characteristics

The aim of this work was to estimate and describe the Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2009, incremental annual costs by disease stage, incremental total Medicare HCV payments in 2009 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked data covering the years 2002 to 2009. We weighted the 2009 SEER-Medicare data to create estimates of the number of patients with an HCV diagnosis, used an inverse probability-weighted two-part, probit, and generalized linear model to estimate incremental per patient per month costs, and used simulation to estimate annual 2009 Medicare burden, presented in 2014 dollars. We summarized patient characteristics, diagnoses, and costs from SEER-Medicare files into a person-year panel data set. We estimated there were 407,786 patients with diagnosed HCV in 2009, of whom 61.4% had one or more comorbidities defined by the study. In 2009, 68% of patients were diagnosed with chronic HCV only, 9% with cirrhosis, 12% with decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), 2% with liver cancer, 2% with a history of transplant, and 8% who died. Annual costs for patients with chronic infection only and DCC were higher than the values used in many previous cost-effectiveness studies, and treatment of DCC accounted for 63.9% of total Medicare's HCV expenditures. Medicare paid $2.7 billion (credible interval: $0.7-$4.6 billion) in incremental costs for HCV in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

The costs of HCV to Medicare in 2009 were substantial and expected to increase over the next decade. Annual costs for patients with chronic infection only and DCC were higher than values used in many cost-effectiveness analyses.

HIV Infection Status as a Predictor of Hepatitis C Virus RNA Testing in Primary Care

INTRODUCTION

Receipt of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA testing following a positive HCV antibody (anti-HCV+) test result to establish current infection is a quality indicator for HCV-related care. This study examines HIV infection status as a predictor of HCV RNA test receipt after an anti-HCV+ result in the primary care setting.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of anti-HCV+ patients from a multisite retrospective study of patients aged ≥18 years who utilized one or more primary care outpatient services during 2005-2010 were analyzed in 2014. A multivariable logistic regression model examined the independent relationships between patient characteristics and receipt of HCV RNA testing.

RESULTS

Among 1,115 anti-HCV+ patients, 133 (11.9%) were also HIV-positive. Of these, 77.4% (n=103) underwent HCV RNA testing to determine current infection status. By contrast, 66.7% (n=654/980) of anti-HCV+ patients who were HIV-negative received HCV RNA testing. Following multivariable adjustment, the odds of receiving HCV RNA testing were higher among anti-HCV+ patients who were also HIV-positive (AOR=1.9, 95% CI=1.2, 3.0), compared with their HIV-negative counterparts. Elevated alanine aminotransferase level was also associated with receipt of HCV RNA testing (AOR=1.9, 95% CI=1.4, 2.4). Black race was associated with decreased odds of receiving HCV RNA testing (AOR=0.7, 95% CI=0.5, 1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV infection status is independently associated with the likelihood of receiving HCV RNA testing following an anti-HCV+ result. One quarter of anti-HCV+ patients who were also HIV-positive and one third of their HIV-negative counterparts, respectively, did not receive testing to establish active HCV infection, which is imperative for appropriate care and treatment.

The cost-effectiveness, health benefits, and financial costs of new antiviral treatments for hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

New hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments deliver higher cure rates with fewer contraindications, increasing demand for treatment and healthcare costs. The cost-effectiveness of new treatments is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a microsimulation of guideline testing followed by alternative treatment regimens for HCV among the US population aged 20 and older to estimate cases identified, treated, sustained viral response, deaths, medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment options expressed as discounted lifetime costs and benefits from the healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

Compared to treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR), and a protease inhibitor for HCV genotype (G) 1 and PR alone for G2/3, treatment with PR and Sofosbuvir (PRS) for G1/4 and treatment with Sofosbuvir and ribavirin (SR) for G2/3 increased QALYs by 555 226, reduced deaths by 80 682, and increased costs by $26.2 billion at an ICER of $47 304 per QALY gained. As compared to PRS/SR, treating with an all oral regimen of Sofosbuvir and Simeprevir (SS) for G1/4 and SR for G2/3, increased QALYs by 1 110 451 and reduced deaths by an additional 164 540 at an incremental cost of $80.1 billion and an ICER of $72 169. In sensitivity analysis, where treatment with SS effectiveness was set to the list price of Viekira Pak and then Harvoni, treatment cost $24 921 and $25 405 per QALY gained as compared to PRS/SR.

CONCLUSIONS

New treatments are cost-effectiveness per person treated, but pent-up demand for treatment may create challenges for financing.

Hepatitis C virus antibody positivity and predictors among previously undiagnosed adult primary care outpatients: cross-sectional analysis of a multisite retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 1998 recommends HCV antibody (anti-HCV) testing for persons with specified risk factors. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and predictors of anti-HCV positivity among primary care outpatients and estimate the proportion of unidentified anti-HCV-positive (anti-HCV+) persons using risk-based testing.

METHODS

We analyzed electronic medical record data from a 4-site retrospective study. Patients were aged ≥18 years, utilized ≥1 outpatient primary care service(s) between 2005 and 2010, and had no documented evidence of prior HCV diagnosis. Among persons tested for anti-HCV, we fit a multilevel logistic regression model to identify patient-level independent predictors of anti-HCV positivity. We estimated the proportion of unidentified anti-HCV+ persons by using multiple imputation to assign anti-HCV results to untested patients.

RESULTS

We observed 209 076 patients for a median of 5 months (interquartile range, 1-23 months). Among 17 464 (8.4%) patients who were tested for anti-HCV, 6.4% (n=1115) were positive. We identified history of injection drug use (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 6.3 [5.2-7.6]), 1945-1965 birth cohort (4.4 [3.8-5.1]), and elevated alanine aminotransferase levels (4.8 [4.2-5.6]) as independently associated with anti-HCV positivity. We estimated that 81.5% (n=4890/6005) of anti-HCV+ patients were unidentified using risk-based testing.

CONCLUSIONS

In these outpatient primary care settings, risk-based testing may have missed 4 of 5 newly enrolled patients who are anti-HCV+. Without knowing their status, unidentified anti-HCV+ persons cannot receive further clinical evaluation or antiviral treatment, and are unlikely to benefit from secondary prevention recommendations to limit disease progression and mortality.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Hepatitis C virus testing perspectives among primary care physicians in four large primary care settings

BACKGROUND

In 1998, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published Recommendations for Prevention and Control of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Infection and HCV-Related Chronic Disease, recommending HCV testing for populations most likely to be infected with HCV. However, the implementation of risk-based screening has not been widely adopted in health care settings, and 45% to 85% of infected U.S. adults remain unidentified.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a better understanding of why CDC's 1998 recommendations have had limited success in identifying persons with HCV infection and provide information about how CDC's 2012 Recommendations for the Identification of Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among Persons Born During 1945-1965 may be implemented more effectively.

DESIGN

Qualitative data were collected and analyzed from a multidisciplinary team as part of the Birth Cohort Evaluation to Advance Screening and Testing for Hepatitis C project.

RESPONDENTS

Nineteen providers were asked open-ended questions to identify current perspectives, practices, facilitators, and barriers to HCV screening and testing. Providers were affiliated with Henry Ford Hospital, Mount Sinai Hospital, the University of Alabama, and the University of Texas Health Science Center.

RESULTS

Respondents reported the complexity of the 1998 recommendations, and numerous indicated risk factors were major barriers to effective implementation. Other hindrances to hepatitis C testing included physician discomfort in asking questions about socially undesirable behaviors and physician uncertainty about patient insurance coverage.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of the CDC's 2012 recommendations could be more successful than the 1998 recommendations due to their relative simplicity; however, effective strategies need to be used for dissemination and implementation for full success.

Attributes associated with eye care use in the United States: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To model the factors that are associated with the use of eye care services among the US population with and without diabetes, stratifying by age group.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed data from 3 datasets: the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System combined years 2006-2009, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey combined years 2005-2008, and the National Health Interview Survey year 2008. For all 3 datasets, we analyzed data from all survey participants aged 40 years or older who participated in vision-related survey modules.

METHODS

We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess associations between any eye care use within the previous year and 14 indicators of patient demographics and health. We estimated separate regressions for persons with and without diabetes stratified by age group. We combined estimates across datasets using a random effects model estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Use of eye care in the previous year and personal factors associated with eye care use.

RESULTS

Annual eye care use rates ranged from 46% to 51% in participants without diabetes and 64% to 72% in participants with diabetes. For people with and without diabetes, health insurance, an eye disease diagnosis, and higher income were associated with higher odds of eye care use. Being male was associated with lower odds of eye care use in some diabetes status and age group categories. Other variables, such as more education, being married, black race, Hispanic/Latino ethnicity, health status, heavy drinking, and limited ability to read small print, were associated with eye care use in only some diabetes status and age group categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that economic and ocular health factors are associated with the greatest odds of annual eye care use. Access to health insurance and income levels greater than $35 000 US dollars (value at the time of interview) are associated with eye care use independently of other demographic factors.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Recommendations for the identification of chronic hepatitis C virus infection among persons born during 1945-1965

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an increasing cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Many of the 2.7-3.9 million persons living with HCV infection are unaware they are infected and do not receive care (e.g., education, counseling, and medical monitoring) and treatment. CDC estimates that although persons born during 1945-1965 comprise an estimated 27% of the population, they account for approximately three fourths of all HCV infections in the United States, 73% of HCV-associated mortality, and are at greatest risk for hepatocellular carcinoma and other HCV-related liver disease. With the advent of new therapies that can halt disease progression and provide a virologic cure (i.e., sustained viral clearance following completion of treatment) in most persons, targeted testing and linkage to care for infected persons in this birth cohort is expected to reduce HCV-related morbidity and mortality. CDC is augmenting previous recommendations for HCV testing (CDC. Recommendations for prevention and control of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and HCV-related chronic disease. MMWR 1998;47[No. RR-19]) to recommend one-time testing without prior ascertainment of HCV risk for persons born during 1945-1965, a population with a disproportionately high prevalence of HCV infection and related disease. Persons identified as having HCV infection should receive a brief screening for alcohol use and intervention as clinically indicated, followed by referral to appropriate care for HCV infection and related conditions. These recommendations do not replace previous guidelines for HCV testing that are based on known risk factors and clinical indications. Rather, they define an additional target population for testing: persons born during 1945-1965. CDC developed these recommendations with the assistance of a work group representing diverse expertise and perspectives. The recommendations are informed by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework, an approach that provides guidance and tools to define the research questions, conduct the systematic review, assess the overall quality of the evidence, and determine strength of the recommendations. This report is intended to serve as a resource for health-care professionals, public health officials, and organizations involved in the development, implementation, and evaluation of prevention and clinical services. These recommendations will be reviewed every 5 years and updated to include advances in the published evidence.

The cost-effectiveness of Welcome to Medicare visual acuity screening and a possible alternative welcome to medicare eye evaluation among persons without diagnosed diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of visual acuity screening performed in primary care settings and of dilated eye evaluations performed by an eye care professional among new Medicare enrollees with no diagnosed eye disorders. Medicare currently reimburses visual acuity screening for new enrollees during their initial preventive primary care health check, but dilated eye evaluations may be a more cost-effective policy.

DESIGN

Monte Carlo cost-effectiveness simulation model with a total of 50 000 simulated patients with demographic characteristics matched to persons 65 years of age in the US population.

RESULTS

Compared with no screening policy, dilated eye evaluations increased quality-adjusted life-years(QALYs) by 0.008 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.005-0.011) and increased costs by $94 (95% CrI, −$35 to$222). A visual acuity screening increased QALYs in less than 95% of the simulations (0.001 [95% CrI, −0.002 to 0.004) and increased total costs by $32 (95% CrI, −$97 to $159) per person. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a visual acuity screening and an eye examination compared with no screening were $29 000 and$12 000 per QALY gained, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay value of $15 000 or more per QALY gained, a dilated eye evaluation was the policy option most likely to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The currently recommended visual acuity screening showed limited efficacy and cost-effectiveness compared with no screening. In contrast, anew policy of reimbursement for Welcome to Medicare dilated eye evaluations was highly cost-effective.

The potential cost-effectiveness of amblyopia screening programs

PURPOSE

To estimate the incremental cost-effective-ness of amblyopia screening at preschool and kindergarten, the costs and benefits of three amblyopia screening scenarios were compared to no screening and to each other: (1) acuity/stereopsis (A/S) screening at kindergarten, (2) A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten, and (3) photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten.

METHODS

A probabilistic microsimulation model of amblyopia natural history and response to treatment with screening costs and outcomes estimated from two state programs was programmed. The probability was calculated that no screening and each of the three interventions were most cost-effective per incremental quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and case avoided.

RESULTS

Assuming a minimal 0.01 utility loss from monocular vision loss, no screening was most cost-effective with a willingness to pay (WTP) of less than $16,000 per QALY gained. A/S screening at kindergarten alone was most cost-effective at a WTP between $17,000 and $21,000. A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten was most cost-effective at a WTP between $22,000 and $75,000, and photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten was most cost-effective at a WTP greater than $75,000. Cost-effectiveness substantially improved when assuming a greater utility loss. All scenarios were cost-effective when assuming a WTP of $10,500 per case of amblyopia cured.

CONCLUSION

All three screening interventions evaluated are likely to be considered cost-effective relative to many other potential public health programs. The choice of screening option depends on budgetary resources and the value placed on monocular vision loss prevention by funding agencies.

The global burden of hepatitis E virus genotypes 1 and 2 in 2005

We estimated the global burden of hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes 1 and 2 in 2005. HEV is an emergent waterborne infection that causes source-originated epidemics of acute disease with a case fatality rate thought to vary by age and pregnancy status. To create our estimates, we modeled the annual disease burden of HEV genotypes 1 and 2 for 9 of 21 regions defined for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (the GBD 2010 Study), which represent 71% of the world's population. We estimated the seroprevalence of anti-HEV antibody and annual incidence of infection for each region using data from 37 published national studies and the DISMOD 3, a generic disease model designed for the GBD Study. We converted incident infections into three mutually exclusive results of infection: (1) asymptomatic episodes, (2) symptomatic disease, and (3) death from HEV. We also estimated incremental cases of stillbirths among infected pregnant women. For 2005, we estimated 20.1 (95% credible interval [Cr.I.]: 2.8-37.0) million incident HEV infections across the nine GBD Regions, resulting in 3.4 (95% Cr.I.: 0.5-6.5) million symptomatic cases, 70,000 (95% Cr.I.: 12,400-132,732) deaths, and 3,000 (95% Cr.I.: 1,892-4,424) stillbirths. We estimated a probability of symptomatic illness given infection of 0.198 (95% Cr.I.: 0.167-0.229) and a probability of death given symptomatic illness of 0.019 (95% Cr.I.: 0.017-0.021) for nonpregnant cases and 0.198 (95% Cr.I.: 0.169-0.227) for pregnant cases.

CONCLUSION

The model was most sensitive to estimates of age-specific incidence of HEV disease.

The cost-effectiveness of birth-cohort screening for hepatitis C antibody in U.S. primary care settings

BACKGROUND

In the United States, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is most prevalent among adults born from 1945 through 1965, and approximately 50% to 75% of infected adults are unaware of their infection.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of birth-cohort screening.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness simulation.

DATA SOURCES

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, U.S. Census, Medicare reimbursement schedule, and published sources.

TARGET POPULATION

Adults born from 1945 through 1965 with 1 or more visits to a primary care provider annually.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal, health care.

INTERVENTION

One-time antibody test of 1945-1965 birth cohort.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of cases that were identified and treated and that achieved a sustained viral response; liver disease and death from HCV; medical and productivity costs; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with the status quo, birth-cohort screening identified 808,580 additional cases of chronic HCV infection at a screening cost of $2874 per case identified. Assuming that birth-cohort screening was followed by pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PEG-IFN+R) for treated patients, screening increased QALYs by 348,800 and costs by $5.5 billion, for an ICER of $15,700 per QALY gained. Assuming that birth-cohort screening was followed by direct-acting antiviral plus PEG-IFN+R treatment for treated patients, screening increased QALYs by 532,200 and costs by $19.0 billion, for an ICER of $35,700 per QALY saved.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

The ICER of birth-cohort screening was most sensitive to sustained viral response of antiviral therapy, the cost of therapy, the discount rate, and the QALY losses assigned to disease states.

LIMITATION

Empirical data on screening and direct-acting antiviral treatment in real-world clinical settings are scarce.

CONCLUSION

Birth-cohort screening for HCV in primary care settings was cost-effective.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Division of Viral Hepatitis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The cost-effectiveness of three screening alternatives for people with diabetes with no or early diabetic retinopathy

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether biennial eye evaluation or telemedicine screening are cost-effective alternatives to current recommendations for the estimated 10 million people aged 30-84 with diabetes but no or minimal diabetic retinopathy.

DATA SOURCES

United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, American Academy of Ophthalmology Preferred Practice Patterns, Medicare Payment Schedule.

STUDY DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness Monte Carlo simulation.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Literature review, analysis of existing surveys.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Biennial eye evaluation was the most cost-effective treatment option when the ability to detect other eye conditions was included in the model. Telemedicine was most cost-effective when other eye conditions were not considered or when telemedicine was assumed to detect refractive error. The current annual eye evaluation recommendation was costly compared with either treatment alternative. Self-referral was most cost-effective up to a willingness to pay (WTP) of U.S.$37,600, with either biennial or annual evaluation most cost-effective at higher WTP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual eye evaluations are costly and add little benefit compared with either plausible alternative. More research on the ability of telemedicine to detect other eye conditions is needed to determine whether it is more cost-effective than biennial eye evaluation.