Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of post-acute COVID-19 syndrome symptoms at different follow-up periods: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-acute coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome is now recognized as a complex systemic disease that is associated with substantial morbidity.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of persistent symptoms and signs at least 12 weeks after acute COVID-19 at different follow-up periods.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were conducted up to October 2021 in Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline, and PubMed.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

Articles in English that reported the prevalence of persistent symptoms among individuals with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and included at least 50 patients with a follow-up of at least 12 weeks after acute illness.

METHODS

Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to produce a pooled prevalence for each symptom at four different follow-up time intervals. Between-study heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic and was explored via meta-regression, considering several a priori study-level variables. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for prevalence studies and comparative studies, respectively.

RESULTS

After screening 3209 studies, a total of 63 studies were eligible, with a total COVID-19 population of 257 348. The most commonly reported symptoms were fatigue, dyspnea, sleep disorder, and difficulty concentrating (32%, 25%, 24%, and 22%, respectively, at 3- to <6-month follow-up); effort intolerance, fatigue, sleep disorder, and dyspnea (45%, 36%, 29%, and 25%, respectively, at 6- to <9-month follow-up); fatigue (37%) and dyspnea (21%) at 9 to <12 months; and fatigue, dyspnea, sleep disorder, and myalgia (41%, 31%, 30%, and 22%, respectively, at >12-month follow-up). There was substantial between-study heterogeneity for all reported symptom prevalences. Meta-regressions identified statistically significant effect modifiers: world region, male sex, diabetes mellitus, disease severity, and overall study quality score. Five of six studies including a comparator group consisting of COVID-19-negative cases observed significant adjusted associations between COVID-19 and several long-term symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review found that a large proportion of patients experience post-acute COVID-19 syndrome 3 to 12 months after recovery from the acute phase of COVID-19. However, available studies of post-acute COVID-19 syndrome are highly heterogeneous. Future studies need to have appropriate comparator groups, standardized symptom definitions and measurements, and longer follow-up.

COVID-19-associated cardiac pathology at post-mortem evaluation: A Collaborative systematic Review

Background

Many postmortem studies address the cardiovascular effects of COVID-19 and provide valuable information, but are limited by their small sample size.

Objectives

The aim of this systematic review is to better understand the various aspects of the cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 by pooling data from a large number of autopsy studies.

Data sources

We searched the online databases Ovid EBM Reviews, Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science for concepts of autopsy or histopathology combined with COVID-19, published between database inception and February 2021. We also searched for unpublished manuscripts using the medRxiv services operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.

Study eligibility criteria

Articles were considered eligible for inclusion if they reported human postmortem cardiovascular findings among individuals with a confirmed SARS coronavirus type 2 (CoV-2) infection.

Participants

Confirmed COVID-19 patients with post-mortem cardiovascular findings.

Interventions

None.

Methods

Studies were individually assessed for risk of selection, detection, and reporting biases. The median prevalence of different autopsy findings with associated interquartile ranges (IQRs).

Results

This review cohort contained 50 studies including 548 hearts. The median age of the deceased was 69 years. The most prevalent acute cardiovascular findings were myocardial necrosis (median: 100.0%; IQR, 20%–100%; number of studies = 9; number of patients = 64) and myocardial oedema (median: 55.5%; IQR, 19.5%–92.5%; number of studies = 4; number of patients = 46). The median reported prevalence of extensive, focal active, and multifocal myocarditis were all 0.0%. The most prevalent chronic changes were myocyte hypertrophy (median: 69.0%; IQR, 46.8%–92.1%) and fibrosis (median: 35.0%; IQR, 35.0%–90.5%). SARS-CoV-2 was detected in the myocardium with median prevalence of 60.8% (IQR 40.4-95.6%).

Conclusions

Our systematic review confirmed the high prevalence of acute and chronic cardiac pathologies in COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 cardiac tropism, as well as the low prevalence of myocarditis in COVID-19.

Long term predictors of breathlessness, exercise intolerance, chronic fatigue and well-being in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A cohort study with 4 months median follow-up

BACKGROUND

Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS) is an emerging healthcare burden. We therefore aimed to determine predictors of different functional outcomes after hospital discharge in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

An ambidirectional cohort study was conducted between May and July 2020, in which PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients underwent a standardized telephone assessment between 6 weeks and 6 months post discharge. We excluded patients who died, had a mental illness or failed to respond to two follow-up phone calls. The medical research council (MRC) dyspnea scale, metabolic equivalent of task (MET) score for exercise tolerance, chronic fatigability syndrome (CFS) scale and World Health Organization-five well-being index (WHO-5) for mental health were used to evaluate symptoms at follow-up.

RESULTS

375 patients were contacted and 153 failed to respond. The median timing for the follow-up assessment was 122 days (IQR, 109-158). On multivariate analyses, female gender, pre-existing lung disease, headache at presentation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, critical COVID-19 and post-discharge ER visit were predictors of higher MRC scores at follow-up. Female gender, older age >67 years, arterial hypertension and emergency room (ER) visit were associated with lower MET exercise tolerance scores. Female gender, pre-existing lung disease, and ER visit were associated with higher risk of CFS. Age, dyslipidemia, hypertension, pre-existing lung disease and duration of symptoms were negatively associated with WHO-5 score.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk factors were associated with an increased risk of PACS. Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who are at risk for PACS may benefit from a targeted pre-emptive follow-up and rehabilitation programs.

Prevalence and predictors of Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome (PACS) after hospital discharge: A cohort study with 4 months median follow-up

BACKGROUND

Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS) is an emerging healthcare burden. The risk factors associated with PACS remain largely unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency of new or persistent symptoms in COVID-19 patients post hospital discharge and identify associated risk factors.

METHODS

Our prospective cohort comprised of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between May and July 2020. The patients were interviewed through phone calls by trained physicians from 6 weeks up to 6 months post hospital discharge. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models were used to examine for predictors associated with persistence of symptoms and non-return to baseline health.

RESULTS

222 COVID-19 patients responded to follow-up phone interviews after a median of 122 days post discharge. The majority of patients were men (77%) with mean age of 52.47 (± 13.95) years. 56.3% of patients complained of persistent symptoms; 66 (29.7%) experiencing them for >21 days and 64 (28.8%) reporting not having returned to their baseline health. Furthermore, 39 patients (17.6%) reported visiting an emergency room post discharge for COVID-19-related symptoms while 16 (7.2%) had required re-hospitalization. Shortness of breath (40.1%), cough (27.5%) and fatigue (29.7%) were the most frequently reported symptoms at follow-up. After multivariable adjustments, female gender, pre-existing hypertension and length of hospital stay were associated with an increased risk of new or persistent symptoms. Age, pre-existing lung disease and emergency room visits increased the likelihood of not fully recovering from acute COVID-19. Patients who were treated with interferon β-1b based triple antiviral therapy during hospital stay were less likely to experience new or persistent symptoms and more likely to return to their baseline health.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 survivors continued to suffer from dyspnea, cough and fatigue at 4 months post hospital discharge. Several risk factors could predict which patients are more likely to experience PACS and may benefit from individualized follow-up and rehabilitation programs.

Predictors of Complications Secondary to Infective Endocarditis and Their Associated Outcomes: A Large Cohort Study from the National Emergency Database (2016-2018)

Introduction

Literature regarding outcomes and predictors of complications secondary to infective endocarditis (IE) is limited. We aimed to study the outcomes and predictors of complications of IE.

Methods

Data from a national emergency department sample, which constitutes 20% sample of hospital-owned emergency departments in the USA, were analyzed for hospital visits for IE. Complications of endocarditis were obtained by using ICD codes. Multivariable generalized linear method was used to evaluate predictors of in-hospital mortality and complications.

Results

Out of 255,838 adult IE patients (mean age 60.3 ± 20.1 years, 48.5% females), 97,803 (38.2%) patients developed one or more major complications. The major complications were cardiovascular system complications [57,900 (22.6%)], neurologic [42,851 (16.7%)] complications, and renal [16,236 (6.4%)] complications. These included cardiogenic shock [3873 (1.5%)], septic shock [25,798 (10.1%)], acute heart failure [35,602 (14%)], systemic thromboembolism (STE) [21,390 (8.36%)], heart block [11,430 (4.47%)], in-hospital dialysis [2880 (1.1%)], and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) [2704 (1.1%)]. Patients with complicated IE had risk of mortality (adjusted RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.11–1.13, p < 0.001). The complications strongly associated with mortality were septic shock (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.27–1.30, p < 0.001), cardiogenic shock (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.20–1.29, p < 0.001), DIC (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.35–1.46, p < 0.001), and STE (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.05–1.08, p < 0.001). Staphylococci were the predominant causative organisms (30.8%) among the complicated IE subgroups with higher associated mortality (42.8%). The main predictors of complications from IE were congenital heart disease, history of congestive heart failure, high Elixhauser comorbidity profile, staphylococcal infection, and fungal infections. The prevalence of cardiogenic shock increased over the study years from 1.13 to 1.98% (p-trend 0.04).

Conclusion

Complicated IE is not uncommon and is associated with significant mortality. Staphylococcal infections were associated with high mortality rates. There has been an increasing trend of cardiogenic shock among IE patients across the US. Further research is needed to improve the outcomes of complicated endocarditis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-021-00563-y.

Temporal Trends of Infective Endocarditis in North America From 2000 to 2017-A Systematic Review

Background

The objective of this paper was to examine temporal changes of infective endocarditis (IE) incidence and epidemiology in North America.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted at Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Ovid EBM Reviews, Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 1, 2000, and May 31, 2020. Four referees independently reviewed all studies, and those that reported a population-based incidence of IE in patients aged 18 years and older in North America were included.

Results

Of 8588 articles screened, 14 were included. Overall, IE incidence remained largely unchanged throughout the study period, except for 2 studies that demonstrated a rise in incidence after 2014. Five studies reported temporal trends of injection drug use (IDU) prevalence among IE patients with a notable increase in prevalence observed. Staphylococcus aureus was the most common pathogen in 7 of 9 studies that included microbiologic findings. In-patient mortality ranged from 3.7% to 14.4%, while the percentage of patients who underwent surgery ranged from 6.4% to 16.0%.

Conclusions

The overall incidence of IE has remained stable among the 14 population-based investigations in North America identified in our systematic review. Standardization of study design for future population-based investigations has been highlighted for use in subsequent systematic reviews of IE.

Escalating incidence of infective endocarditis in Europe in the 21st century

AIM

To provide a contemporary analysis of incidence trends of infective endocarditis (IE) with its changing epidemiology over the past two decades in Europe.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Ovid EBM Reviews, Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline, Scopus and Web of Science were searched for studies published between 1 January 2000 and 30 November 2020. All studies were independently reviewed by four referees and those that included a population-based incidence of IE in patients, irrespective of age, in Europe were included. Least squares regression was used to estimate pooled temporal trends in IE incidence.

RESULTS

Of 9138 articles screened, 18 studies were included in the review. Elderly men predominated in all studies. IE incidence increased 4.1% per year (95% CI 1.8% to 6.4%) in the pooled regression analysis of eight studies that included comprehensive and consistent trends data. When trends data were weighted according to population size of individual countries, an increase in yearly incidence of 0.27 cases per 100 000 people was observed. Staphylococci and streptococci were the most common pathogens identified. The rate of surgical intervention ranged from 10.2% to 60.0%, and the rate of inpatient mortality ranged from 14.3% to 17.5%. In six studies that examined the rate of injection drug use, five of them reported a rate of less than 10%.

CONCLUSION

Based on findings from our systematic review, IE incidence in Europe has doubled over the past two decades in Europe. Multiple factors are likely responsible for this striking increase.

TRIAL REGISTERATION NUMBER

CRD42020191196.

The prognostic role of cardiac positron emission tomography imaging in patients with sarcoidosis: A systematic review

PURPOSE

Sarcoidosis is a multi-systemic inflammatory disease of unknown etiology. Cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) has been reported in as much as 25% of patients with systemic involvement. 18Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) has a high diagnostic sensitivity/specificity in the diagnosis of CS. The aim of this review is to summarize evidence on the prognostic role of FDG PET.

METHODS

Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE from inception to October 2020. Medical subject headings (MeSH) terms for sarcoidosis; cardiac and FDG PET imaging were used. Studies of any design assessing the prognostic role of FDG PET in patients with either suspected or confirmed cardiac sarcoidosis imaging done at baseline were included. Abnormal PET was defined as abnormal metabolism (presence of focal or focal-on-diffuse uptake of FDG) OR abnormal metabolism and a perfusion defect. Studies reporting any outcome measure were included. Pooled risk ratio for the composite outcome of MACE was done.

RESULTS

A total of 6 studies were selected for final inclusion (515 patients, 53.4% women, 19.8% racial minorities.) Studies were institution based, retrospective in design and enrolled consecutive patients. All were observational in nature and published in English. All studies used a qualitative assessment of PET scans (abnormal FDG uptake with or without abnormal perfusion). Two studies assessed quantitative metrics (summed stress score in segments with abnormal FDG uptake, standardized uptake value and cardiac metabolic activity.) All studies reported major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) as a composite outcome. After a mean follow up ranging from 1.4 to 4.1 years, there were a total of 105 MACE. All studies included death (either all-cause death or sudden cardiac death) and ventricular arrhythmia (ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation) as a component of MACE. Four of the six studies adjusted for several characteristics in their analysis. All four studies used left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, other adjustment variables were not consistent across studies. Five studies found a positive prognostic association with the primary outcome, two of which assessing right ventricular uptake.

CONCLUSION

Although available evidence indicates FDG PET can be used in the risk stratification of patients with CS, our findings show further studies are needed to quantify the effect in this patient group.

Prior Statin Use and Risk of Mortality and Severe Disease From Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Statins up-regulate angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, the receptor of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), while also exhibiting pleiotropic antiviral, antithrombotic, and anti-inflammatory properties. Uncertainties exist about their effect on the course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We sought to systematically review the literature and perform a meta-analysis to examine the association between prior statin use and outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We searched Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, and the preprint server medRxiv from inception to December 2020. We assessed the quality of eligible studies with the Newcastle-Ottawa quality scale. We pooled adjusted relative risk (aRRs) of the association between prior statin use and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 using the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model and assessed heterogeneity using the I 2 index.

RESULTS

Overall, 19 (16 cohorts and 3 case-control) studies were eligible, with a total of 395 513 patients. Sixteen of 19 studies had low or moderate risk of bias. Among 109 080 patients enrolled in 13 separate studies, prior statin use was associated with a lower risk of mortality (pooled aRR, 0.65 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .56-.77], I 2 = 84.1%) and a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 was also observed in 48 110 patients enrolled in 9 studies (pooled aRR, 0.73 [95% CI, .57-.94], I 2 = 82.8%), with no evidence of publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative evidence suggests that prior statin use is associated with lower risks of mortality or severe disease in patients with COVID-19. These data support the continued use of statins medications in patients with an indication for lipid-lowering therapy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overlooked Shortcomings of Observational Studies of Interventions in Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Illustrated Review for the Clinician

The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection across the globe triggered an unprecedented increase in research activities that resulted in an astronomical publication output of observational studies. However, most studies failed to apply fully the necessary methodological techniques that systematically deal with different biases and confounding, which not only limits their scientific merit but may result in harm through misleading information. In this article, we address a few important biases that can seriously threaten the validity of observational studies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We focus on treatment selection bias due to patients’ preference on goals of care, medical futility and disability bias, survivor bias, competing risks, and the misuse of propensity score analysis. We attempt to raise awareness and to help readers assess shortcomings of observational studies of interventions in COVID-19.

Unraveling the Mystery Surrounding Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19

More than one year since its emergence, corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still looming large with a paucity of treatment options. To add to this burden, a sizeable subset of patients who have recovered from acute COVID-19 infection have reported lingering symptoms, leading to significant disability and impairment of their daily life activities. These patients are considered to suffer from what has been termed as “chronic” or “long” COVID-19 or a form of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, and patients experiencing this syndrome have been termed COVID-19 long-haulers. Despite recovery from infection, the persistence of atypical chronic symptoms, including extreme fatigue, shortness of breath, joint pains, brain fogs, anxiety and depression, that could last for months implies an underlying disease pathology that persist beyond the acute presentation of the disease. As opposed to the direct effects of the virus itself, the immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is believed to be largely responsible for the appearance of these lasting symptoms, possibly through facilitating an ongoing inflammatory process. In this review, we hypothesize potential immunological mechanisms underlying these persistent and prolonged effects, and describe the multi-organ long-term manifestations of COVID-19.

Combination of (interferon beta-1b, lopinavir/ritonavir and ribavirin) versus favipiravir in hospitalized patients with non-critical COVID-19: A cohort study

Objectives

Our study aims at comparing the efficacy and safety of IFN-based therapy (lopinavir/ritonavir, ribavirin, and interferon β-1b) vs. favipiravir (FPV) in a cohort of hospitalized patients with non-critical COVID-19.

Methods

Single center observational study comparing IFN-based therapy (interferon β-1b, ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir) vs. FPV in non-critical hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Allocation to either treatment group was non-random but based on changes to national treatment protocols rather than physicians’ selection (quasi-experimental). We examined the association between IFN-based therapy and 28-day mortality using Cox regression model with treatment as a time-dependent covariate.

Results

The study cohort included 222 patients, of whom 68 (28%) received IFN-based therapy. Antiviral therapy was started at a median of 5 days (3–6 days) from symptoms onset in the IFN group vs. 6 days (4–7 days) for the FPV group, P <0.0001. IFN-based therapy was associated with a lower 28-day mortality as compared to FPV (6 (9%) vs. 18 (12%)), adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] (95% Cl) = 0.27 (0.08–0.88)). No difference in hospitalization duration between the 2 groups, 9 (7–14) days vs. 9 (7–13) days, P = 0.732 was found. IFN treated group required less use of systemic corticosteroids (57%) as compared to FPV (77%), P = 0.005 after adjusting for disease severity and other confounders. Patients in the IFN treated group were more likely to have nausea and diarrhea as compared to FPV group (13%) vs. (3%), P = 0.013 and (18%) vs. (3%), P<0.0001, respectively.

Conclusion

Early IFN-based triple therapy was associated with lower 28-days mortality as compared to FPV.

Mortality, viral clearance, and other clinical outcomes of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Many meta-analyses have been published about the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most of them included observational studies, and few have assessed HCQ as a prophylaxis or evaluated its safety profile. We searched multiple databases and preprint servers for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed HCQ for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. We summarized the effect of HCQ on mortality, viral clearance, and other clinical outcomes. Out of 768 papers screened, 21 RCTs with a total of 14,138 patients were included. A total of 9 inpatient and 3 outpatient RCTs assessed mortality in 8596 patients with a pooled risk difference of 0.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.00-0.03, I2  = 1%, p = 0.07). Six studies assessed viral clearance at 7 days with a pooled risk ratio (RR) of 1.11 (95% CI 0.86-1.42, I2  = 61%, p = 0.44) and 5 studies at 14 days with a pooled RR of 0.96 (95% CI 0.89-1.04, I2  = 0%, p = 0.34). Several trials showed no significant effect of HCQ on other clinical outcomes and. Five prevention RCTs with 5012 patients found no effect of HCQ on the risk of acquiring COVID-19. Thirteen trials showed that HCQ was associated with increased risk of adverse events. We observed, with high level of certainty of evidence, that HCQ is not effective in reducing mortality in patients with COVID-19. Lower certainty evidence also suggests that HCQ neither improves viral clearance and other clinical outcomes, nor prevents COVID-19 infection in patients with high-risk exposure. HCQ is associated with an increased rate of adverse events.

Efficacy and safety of tocilizumab in COVID-19 patients: a living systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Cytokine release syndrome with elevated interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels is associated with multiorgan damage and death in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our objective was to perform a living systematic review of the literature concerning the efficacy and toxicity of the IL-6 receptor antagonist tocilizumab in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Data sources were Ovid MEDLINE(R) and Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and Daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Web of Science, Scopus up, preprint servers and Google up to October 8, 2020. Study eligibility criteria were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies at low or moderate risk of bias. Participants were hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Interventions included tocilizumab versus placebo or standard of care. We pooled crude risk ratios (RRs) of RCTs and adjusted RRs from cohorts, separately. We evaluated inconsistency between studies with I2. We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Of 1156 citations, 24 studies were eligible (five RCTs and 19 cohorts). Five RCTs at low risk of bias, with 1325 patients, examined the effect of tocilizumab on short-term mortality; pooled RR was 1.09 (95%CI 0.80-1.49, I2 = 0%). Four RCTs with 771 patients examined the effect of tocilizumab on risk of mechanical ventilation; pooled RR was 0.71 (95%CI 0.52-0.96, I2 = 0%), with a corresponding number needed to treat of 17 (95%CI 9-100). Among 18 cohorts at moderate risk of bias with 9850 patients, the pooled adjusted RR for mortality was 0.58 (95%CI 0.51-0.66, I2 = 2.5%). This association was observed over all degrees of COVID-19 severity. Data from the RCTs did not show a higher risk of infections or adverse events with tocilizumab: pooled RR 0.63 (95%CI 0.38-1.06, five RCTs) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.55-1.24, five RCTs), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative moderate-certainty evidence shows that tocilizumab reduces the risk of mechanical ventilation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. While RCTs showed that tocilizumab did not reduce short-term mortality, low-certainty evidence from cohort studies suggests an association between tocilizumab and lower mortality. We did not observe a higher risk of infections or adverse events with tocilizumab use. This review will continuously evaluate the role of tocilizumab in COVID-19 treatment.

Temporal Trends of Infective Endocarditis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, Between 1970 and 2018: A Population-Based Analysis

Background

A population-based study of infective endocarditis (IE) in Olmsted County, Minnesota, provides a unique opportunity to define temporal and seasonal variations in IE incidence over an extended time period.

Methods

This was a population-based review of all adults (≥18 years) residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with definite or possible IE using the Rochester Epidemiology Project from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2018. Poisson regression was used to characterize the trends in IE incidence; models were fitted with age, sex, calendar time, and season, allowing for nonlinearity and nonadditivity of their effects.

Results

Overall, 269 cases of IE were identified over a 49-year study period. The median age of IE cases was 67.2 years, and 33.8% were female. The overall age- and sex-adjusted incidence of IE was 7.9 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 7.0-8.9), with corresponding rates of 2.4, 2.4, 0.9, and 0.7 per 100 000 person-years for Staphylococcus aureus, viridans group streptococci (VGS), Enterococcus species, and coagulase-negative staphylococci IE, respectively. Temporal trends varied by age, sex, and season, but on average IE incidence increased over time (P = .021). Enterococcal IE increased the most (P = .018), while S. aureus IE appeared to increase but mostly in the winter months (P = .018). Between 1996 and 2018, the incidence of VGS IE was relatively stable, with no statistically significant difference in the trends before and after the 2007 AHA IE prevention guidelines.

Conclusions

Overall, IE incidence, and specifically enterococcal IE, increased over time, while S. aureus IE was seasonally dependent. There was no statistically significant difference in VGS IE incidence in the periods before and after publication of the 2007 AHA IE prevention guidelines.

Statins as an adjunctive therapy for COVID-19: the biological and clinical plausibility

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected millions of individuals and has claimed hundreds of thousands of human lives worldwide. Patients with underlying cardiovascular conditions are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 patients have high incidence of cardiovascular complications such as acute cardiac injury, arrhythmias, heart failure, and thromboembolism. The disease has no approved proven effective therapy and hence repurposing of existing approved drugs has been considered as the fastest treatment approach. Statins have been shown to exhibit lipid lowering dependent and independent cardiovascular protective effects as well as favorable effects in various other pathophysiological states. These beneficial properties of statins are a result of their multiple pleotropic effects that include, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, antithrombotic and antimicrobial properties. In this review, we provide a comprehensive description of the mechanisms of the pleotropic effects of statins, the relevant pre-clinical and clinical data pertinent to their role in infections and acute lung injury, the possible cardiovascular benefits of statins in COVID-19, and the implications of the therapeutic potential of statins in COVID-19 disease. We conclude with the rationale for conducting randomized controlled trials of statins in COVID-19 disease.

Efficacy of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Clinical studies of chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in COVID-19 disease reported conflicting results. We sought to systematically evaluate the effect of CQ and HCQ with or without azithromycin on outcomes of COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We searched multiple databases, preprints and grey literature up to 17 July 2020. We pooled only adjusted-effect estimates of mortality using a random-effect model. We summarized the effect of CQ or HCQ on viral clearance, ICU admission/mechanical ventilation and hospitalization.

RESULTS

Seven randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and 14 cohort studies were included (20 979 patients). Thirteen studies (1 RCT and 12 cohort studies) with 15 938 hospitalized patients examined the effect of HCQ on short-term mortality. The pooled adjusted OR was 1.05 (95% CI 0.96-1.15, I2 = 0%). Six cohort studies examined the effect of the HCQ+azithromycin combination with a pooled adjusted OR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.00-1.75, I2 = 68.1%). Two cohort studies and four RCTs found no effect of HCQ on viral clearance. One small RCT demonstrated improved viral clearance with CQ and HCQ. Three cohort studies found that HCQ had no significant effect on mechanical ventilation/ICU admission. Two RCTs found no effect for HCQ on hospitalization risk in outpatients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate certainty evidence suggests that HCQ, with or without azithromycin, lacks efficacy in reducing short-term mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 or risk of hospitalization in outpatients with COVID-19.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Cardiac Toxicity of Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-regression Analysis

Objective

To systematically review the literature and to estimate the risk of chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) cardiac toxicity in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

We searched multiple data sources including PubMed/MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM Reviews, Scopus, and Web of Science and medrxiv.org from November 2019 through May 27, 2020. We included studies that enrolled patients with COVID-19 treated with CQ or HCQ, with or without azithromycin, and reported on cardiac toxic effects. We performed a meta-analysis using the arcsine transformation of the different incidences.

Results

A total of 19 studies with a total of 5652 patients were included. The pooled incidence of torsades de pointes arrhythmia, ventricular tachycardia, or cardiac arrest was 3 per 1000 (95% CI, 0-21; I ² =96%) in 18 studies with 3725 patients. Among 13 studies of 4334 patients, the pooled incidence of discontinuation of CQ or HCQ due to prolonged QTc or arrhythmias was 5% (95% CI, 1-11; I ² =98%). The pooled incidence of change in QTc from baseline of 60 milliseconds or more or QTc of 500 milliseconds or more was 9% (95% CI, 3-17; I ² =97%). Mean or median age, coronary artery disease, hypertension, diabetes, concomitant QT-prolonging medications, intensive care unit admission, and severity of illness in the study populations explained between-studies heterogeneity.

Conclusion

Treatment of patients with COVID-19 with CQ or HCQ is associated with an important risk of drug-induced QT prolongation and relatively higher incidence of torsades de pointes, ventricular tachycardia, or cardiac arrest. Therefore, these agents should not be used routinely in the management of COVID-19 disease. Patients with COVID-19 who are treated with antimalarials for other indications should be adequately monitored.

Association of corticosteroids use and outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically review the literature about the association between systemic corticosteroid therapy (CST) and outcomes of COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, EBM Reviews, Scopus, Web of Science, and preprints up to July 20, 2020. We included observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCT) that assessed COVID-19 patients treated with CST. We pooled adjusted effect estimates of mortality and other outcomes using a random effect model, among studies at low or moderate risk for bias. We assessed the certainty of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Out of 1067 citations screened for eligibility, one RCT and 19 cohort studies were included (16,977 hospitalized patients). Ten studies (1 RCT and 9 cohorts) with 10,278 patients examined the effect of CST on short term mortality. The pooled adjusted RR was 0.92 (95% CI 0.69-1.22, I2 = 81.94%). This effect was observed across all stages of disease severity. Four cohort studies examined the effect of CST on composite outcome of death, ICU admission and mechanical ventilation need. The pooled adjusted RR was 0.41(0.23-0.73, I2 = 78.69%). Six cohort studies examined the effect of CST on delayed viral clearance. The pooled adjusted RR was 1.47(95% CI 1.11-1.93, I2 = 43.38%).

CONCLUSION

In this systematic review, as of July 2020, heterogeneous and low certainty cumulative evidence based on observational studies and one RCT suggests that CST was not associated with reduction in short-term mortality but possibly with a delay in viral clearance in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 of different severities. However, the discordant results between the single RCT and observational studies as well as the heterogeneity observed across observational studies, call for caution in using observational data and suggests the need for more RCTs to identify the clinical and biochemical characteristics of patients' population that could benefit from CST.

Workup and Management of Native and Prosthetic Valve Endocarditis

Infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with significant serious adverse outcomes including death. IE usually presents with diverse clinical picture and syndromic diagnoses including heart failure, stroke, and peripheral embolization. Given variable, vague, and syndromic presentations, the diagnosis of IE may be delayed for days to weeks. Maintaining a high index of suspicion among clinicians is the key to early recognition of the disease and prompt initiation of antimicrobial therapy to prevent IE-associated mortality and morbidity. Blood culture and echocardiography remain essential tools in the diagnosis of infective endocarditis. However, advances in molecular techniques, serology testing, computed tomography scan, and nuclear medicine have led to growth in the available tools that may aid in early diagnosis of infective endocarditis. Antimicrobial agents are the mainstay of IE therapy; however, as many as 50% of endocarditis cases will undergo valve surgery, even on an urgent or emergent basis.

Indications of Surgery in Infective Endocarditis

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious disease with significant morbidity and mortality. Valve surgery is fundamental in the standard of care of selected IE patients. Indeed, valve surgery can be a lifesaving procedure in critically ill endocarditis patients. Our goal from this review is to discuss the indications of surgery in IE population and international cardiac societies' guideline recommendations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Though IE is an uncommon disease, its incidence is noted to be on rise in some parts of the world, and the disease is expected to continue to be a major health problem. Antimicrobials remain the mainstay of IE therapy, but as many as 50% of endocarditis patients will undergo surgical intervention. Heart failure most commonly from acute valvular insufficiency, uncontrolled and persistent infection, and recurrent embolic events are the major indications for valve surgery in IE population. Heart failure is by far the most common indication for surgery in IE patients. Despite the fact that many IE patients will require surgical interventions, most of the international societies' recommendations to perform valve surgery are based on observational studies or experts' opinion. Surgery plays a major role in the management of IE patients, and it is most commonly performed in patients with heart failure, persistent or uncontrolled infection, and recurrent emboli. Most of the current evidence supporting surgical intervention in IE patients is based on observational studies and experts' opinion. Randomized clinical trials are urgently needed to guide surgical therapy in IE.

Infective Endocarditis in Adults: Diagnosis, Antimicrobial Therapy, and Management of Complications: A Scientific Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis is a potentially lethal disease that has undergone major changes in both host and pathogen. The epidemiology of infective endocarditis has become more complex with today's myriad healthcare-associated factors that predispose to infection. Moreover, changes in pathogen prevalence, in particular a more common staphylococcal origin, have affected outcomes, which have not improved despite medical and surgical advances.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This statement updates the 2005 iteration, both of which were developed by the American Heart Association under the auspices of the Committee on Rheumatic Fever, Endocarditis, and Kawasaki Disease, Council on Cardiovascular Disease of the Young. It includes an evidence-based system for diagnostic and treatment recommendations used by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association for treatment recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

Infective endocarditis is a complex disease, and patients with this disease generally require management by a team of physicians and allied health providers with a variety of areas of expertise. The recommendations provided in this document are intended to assist in the management of this uncommon but potentially deadly infection. The clinical variability and complexity in infective endocarditis, however, dictate that these recommendations be used to support and not supplant decisions in individual patient management.

Global and regional burden of infective endocarditis, 1990-2010: a systematic review of the literature

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease associated with serious complications. The GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study IE expert group conducted a systematic review of IE epidemiology literature to inform estimates of the burden on IE in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010. The disease model of IE for the GBD 2010 study included IE death and 2 sequelae: stroke and valve surgery. Several medical and science databases were searched for IE epidemiology studies in GBD high-, low-, and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were IE incidence, proportions of IE patients who developed stroke or underwent valve surgery, and case fatality. Literature searches yielded 1,975 unique papers, of which 115 published in 10 languages were included in the systematic review. Eligible studies were population-based (17%), multicenter hospital-based (11%), and single-center hospital-based studies (71%). Population-based studies were reported from only 6 world regions. Data were missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions. The crude incidence of IE ranged between 1.5 and 11.6 cases per 100,000 people and was reported from 10 countries. The overall mean proportion of IE patients that developed stroke was 0.158 ± 0.091, and the mean proportion of patients that underwent valve surgery was 0.324 ± 0.188. The mean case fatality risk was 0.211 ± 0.104. A systematic review for the GBD 2010 study provided IE epidemiology estimates for many world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IE in low- and middle-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IE will require improved IE surveillance in all world regions.

Incidence of Infective Endocarditis Due to Viridans Group Streptococci Before and After the 2007 American Heart Association's Prevention Guidelines: An Extended Evaluation of the Olmsted County, Minnesota, Population and Nationwide Inpatient Sample

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the incidence of infective endocarditis (IE) due to viridans group streptococci (VGS) increased after the publication of the 2007 American Heart Association (AHA) IE prevention guidelines.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a population-based survey of all adults (18 years and older) residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2013, to identify definite or possible cases of VGS-IE using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample hospital discharge database was examined to determine the number of VGS-IE cases in the United States between 2000 and 2011.

RESULTS

Rates of incidence (per 100,000 person-years) during the intervals of 1999-2002, 2003-2006, 2007-2010, and 2011-2013 were 3.6 (95% CI, 1.3-5.9), 2.7 (95% CI, 0.9-4.4), 0.7 (95% CI, 0.0-1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI, 0.2-2.9), respectively, reflecting an overall significant decrease (P=.03 from Poisson regression). Likewise, nationwide estimates of hospital discharges with a VGS-IE diagnosis trended downward during 2000-2011, with a mean number per year of 15,853 and 16,157 for 2000-2003 and 2004-2007, respectively, decreasing to 14,231 in 2008-2011 (P=.05 from linear regression using weighted least squares method).

CONCLUSION

Despite major reductions in the number of indications for antibiotic prophylaxis for invasive dental procedures espoused by the 2007 AHA IE prevention guidelines, both local and national data indicate that the incidence of VGS-IE has not increased.

Association of Mitral Valve Prolapse With Infective Endocarditis Due to Viridans Group Streptococci

Although patients with certain cardiac valve abnormalities have increased risk of infective endocarditis (IE), it is unknown whether these abnormalities are associated with specific pathogens in IE cases. We report a strong association between mitral valve prolapse and viridans group streptococcal IE in a population-based cohort from Olmsted County, Minnesota.

Association between Preoperative Statin Therapy and Postoperative Infectious Complications in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Infectious complications of cardiac surgery are often severe and life threatening. Statins having both immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects were intuitively thought to influence the development of postsurgical infections. We sought to systematically examine whether any association exists between statin use and risk of infectious complications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Thomson Scientific Web of Science, and Elsevier Scopus from inception through February 2011 for comparative studies examining the association between statin use and risk of postoperative infections in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We contacted a study's author for missing information. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of individual studies' odds ratios (adjusted for potential confounders). We identified 6 cohort studies for inclusion, 3 of which were conducted in Canada and 3 of which were conducted in the United States. Four were single-center studies, and 2 were population based. Exposure ascertainment was based on a review of admission medication list or prescription databases. Infectious outcomes were heterogeneous and included surgical site infections within 30 days, serious infections (sepsis), or any other postoperative infection. Statin use in the preoperative period was associated with a trend toward reduction in the incidence of postoperative infections in patients who underwent cardiac surgery (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% confidence interval, 0.64–1.01]; P = .06; I2 = 75%). Heterogeneity was explained by country effect. Studies performed in Canada showed weaker associations than studies performed in the United States. This difference could not be attributed to study quality alone. We did not find good evidence to support an association between statin use and postoperative infectious complications. However, the trend toward statistical significance for this association indicates that further investigation is warranted.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cangrelor versus clopidogrel in percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Cangrelor is a new antiplatelet agent that has been used in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with mixed results. We aimed to review the evidence on the efficacy of cangrelor in comparison to clopidogrel in reducing ischaemic endpoints at 48 hours in patients undergoing PCI in large randomised trials.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In three large clinical trials involving 25,107 participants, the risk of the primary composite efficacy endpoint of death, MI and ischaemia-driven revascularisation at 48 hours, (pooled OR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.77-1.14, p=0.51, I2=68%), death from all cause (pooled OR 0.72, 95% CI: 0.36-1.43, p=0.34, I2=52%), myocardial infarction (pooled OR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.77-1.14, p=0.51, I2=68%) was not significantly different between cangrelor and clopidogrel. Likewise, severe or life-threatening bleeding was similar between cangrelor and clopidogrel (pooled OR 1.21, 95% CI: 0.70-2.12, p=0.50, I2=0%). The risk of stent thrombosis (pooled OR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.43-0.81, p=0.001, I2=0%), Q-wave myocardial infarction (pooled OR 0.53, 95% CI: 0.30-0.92, p=0.02, I2=0%) and ischaemia-driven revascularisation (pooled OR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52-0.98, p=0.04, I2=0%) was lower in the cangrelor group.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this meta-analysis, we did not find any difference in the risk of the primary composite efficacy endpoint of all-cause death, ischaemia-driven revascularisation, and myocardial infarction at 48hours between cangrelor and clopidogrel use. Given that cangrelor was associated with a lower risk of stent thrombosis, ischaemia-driven revascularisation and Q-wave myocardial infarction compared to clopidogrel, cangrelor can be considered as a suitable alternative during PCI.

Antibiotic prophylaxis for preventing post solid organ transplant tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Organ transplant recipients are at increased risk of infection as a result of immunosuppression caused inadvertently by medical treatment. Tuberculosis (TB) is a challenging infection to manage among organ transplant recipients that can be transmitted from infected people or triggered from latent infection. Organ transplant recipients have been reported to be up to 300 times more likely to develop TB than the general population. Consensus about the use of antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent post solid organ transplant TB has not been achieved.

OBJECTIVES

This review assessed the benefits and harms of antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent post solid organ transplant TB.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Renal Group's Specialised Register up to 30 April 2013 through contact with the Trials' Search Co-ordinator using search terms relevant to this review. Studies contained in the Specialised Register are identified through search strategies specifically designed for CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE and handsearching conference proceedings.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs that compared antibiotic prophylaxis with a placebo or no intervention for recipients of solid organ transplants were included.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data. We derived risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) for continuous data with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Methodological risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified three studies (10 reports) that involved 558 kidney transplant recipients which met our inclusion criteria. All studies were conducted in countries that have high prevalence of TB (India and Pakistan), and investigated isoniazid, an oral antibacterial drug. Control in all studies was no antibiotic prophylaxis. Prophylactic administration of isoniazid reduced the risk of developing TB post-transplant (3 studies, RR 0.35 95% CI 0.14 to 0.89), and there was no significant effect on all-cause mortality (2 studies, RR 1.39, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.78). There was however substantial risk of liver damage (3 studies, RR 2.74, 95% CI 1.22 to 6.17).Reporting of methodological quality parameters was incomplete in all three studies. Overall, risk of bias was assessed as suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Isoniazid prophylaxis for kidney transplant recipients reduced the risk of developing TB post-transplant. Kidney transplant recipients in settings that have high prevalence of TB should receive isoniazid during the first year following transplant. There is however, significant risk of liver damage, particularly among those who are hepatitis B or C positive. Further studies are needed among recipients of other solid organ transplants and in settings with low prevalence of TB to determine the benefits and harms of anti-TB prophylaxis in those populations.

The association between histamine 2 receptor antagonist use and Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a major health problem. Epidemiological evidence suggests that there is an association between acid suppression therapy and development of CDI.

PURPOSE

We sought to systematically review the literature that examined the association between histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and CDI.

DATA SOURCE

We searched Medline, Current Contents, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Elsevier Scopus from 1990 to 2012 for all analytical studies that examined the association between H2RAs and CDI.

STUDY SELECTION

Two authors independently reviewed the studies for eligibility.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data about studies characteristics, adjusted effect estimates and quality were extracted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Thirty-five observations from 33 eligible studies that included 201834 participants were analyzed. Studies were performed in 6 countries and nine of them were multicenter. Most studies did not specify the type or duration of H2RAs therapy. The pooled effect estimate was 1.44, 95% CI (1.22-1.7), I(2) = 70.5%. This association was consistent across different subgroups (by study design and country) and there was no evidence of publication bias. The pooled effect estimate for high quality studies was 1.39 (1.15-1.68), I2 = 72.3%. Meta-regression analysis of 10 study-level variables did not identify sources of heterogeneity. In a speculative analysis, the number needed to harm (NNH) with H2RAs at 14 days after hospital admission in patients receiving antibiotics or not was 58, 95% CI (37, 115) and 425, 95% CI (267, 848), respectively. For the general population, the NNH at 1 year was 4549, 95% CI (2860, 9097).

CONCLUSION

In this rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed an association between H2RAs and CDI. The absolute risk of CDI associated with H2RAs is highest in hospitalized patients receiving antibiotics.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The role of statins in prevention and treatment of community acquired pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that statins may reduce the risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and its complications.

PURPOSE

Performed a systematic review to address the role of statins in the prevention or treatment of CAP.

DATA SOURCE

Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus from inception through December 2011 were searched for randomized clinical trials, cohort and case-control studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Two authors independently reviewed studies that examined the role of statins in CAP.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data about study characteristics, adjusted effect-estimates and quality characteristics was extracted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Eighteen studies corresponding to 21 effect-estimates (eight and 13 of which addressed the preventive and therapeutic roles of statins, respectively) were included. All studies were of good methodological quality. Random-effects meta-analyses of adjusted effect-estimates were used. Statins were associated with a lower risk of CAP, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95), I(2) = 90.5% and a lower short-term mortality in patients with CAP, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.59-0.78), I(2) = 75.7%. Meta-regression did not identify sources of heterogeneity. A funnel plot suggested publication bias in the treatment group, which was adjusted by a novel regression method with a resultant effect-estimate of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.93). Sensitivity analyses using the rule-out approach showed that it is unlikely that the results were due to an unmeasured confounder.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis reveals a beneficial role of statins for the risk of development and mortality associated with CAP. However, the results constitute very low quality evidence as per the GRADE framework due to observational study design, heterogeneity and publication bias.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach.

METHODS

We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004.

FINDINGS

13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously.

INTERPRETATION

This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal trends in the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery: a population-based cohort study, 1993 to 2008

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of and temporal trends in surgical site infections (SSIs) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted to describe the epidemiologic features of SSI in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1, 1993, and December 31, 2008, using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Period-specific incidence rates (in-hospital or within 30 days outside the hospital) were calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders that could affect temporal trends in SSI incidence rates.

RESULTS

During the 16-year study, of 1424 residents of Olmsted County who underwent CABG surgery, 1189 (83%) had isolated CABG and 235 (17%) had combined CABG and valve surgery. The overall SSI incidence rate was 7.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7%-8.4%). The incidence rate of superficial sternal SSI was 2.0% (95% CI, 1.2%-2.7%) and of deep sternal SSI was 1.5% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.2%). The leg harvest site infection rate was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.6 %-4.5%). The incidence rate decreased over time with a statistically significant linear trend. The adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of SSI showed a decreasing linear trend: 0.39 (0.19-0.81) vs 0.50 (0.27-0.93) vs 0.83 (0.48-1.42) vs reference for 2005-2008 vs 2001-2004 vs 1997-2000 vs 1993-1996.

CONCLUSION

In this population-based surveillance study of patients undergoing CABG surgery, the incidence of SSI decreased markedly between 1993 and 2008 in patients in Olmsted County. The factors responsible for this decrease are the focus of ongoing investigations.

Incidence of infective endocarditis caused by viridans group streptococci before and after publication of the 2007 American Heart Association's endocarditis prevention guidelines

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association published updated guidelines for infective endocarditis (IE) prevention in 2007 that markedly restricted the use of antibiotic prophylaxis in certain at-risk patients undergoing dental and other invasive procedures. The incidence of IE caused by viridans group streptococci (VGS) in the United States after publication of the 2007 American Heart Association guidelines has not been reported.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a population-based review of all definite or possible cases of VGS-IE using the Rochester Epidemiology Project of Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patient demographics and microbiological data were collected for all VGS-IE cases diagnosed from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2010. We also examined the Nationwide Inpatient Sample hospital discharge database to determine the number of VGS-IE cases included between 1999 and 2009. We identified 22 cases with VGS-IE in Olmsted County over the 12-year study period. Rates of incidence (per 100 000 person-years) during time intervals of 1999-2002, 2003-2006, and 2007-2010 were 3.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-5.17), 2.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-4.10), and 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.00-1.64), respectively (P=0.061 from Poisson regression). The number of hospital discharges with a VGS-IE diagnosis in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database during 1999-2002, 2003-2006, and 2007-2009 ranged between 15 318 to 15 938, 16 214 to 17 433, and 14 728 to 15 479, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of data complete through 2010, there has been no perceivable increase in the incidence of VGS-IE in Olmsted County, Minnesota, since the publication of the 2007 American Heart Association endocarditis prevention guidelines.