Early Metformin in Gestational Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Gestational diabetes is a common complication of pregnancy and the optimal management is uncertain.

Objective

To test whether early initiation of metformin reduces insulin initiation or improves fasting hyperglycemia at gestation weeks 32 or 38.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted in 2 centers in Ireland (one tertiary hospital and one smaller regional hospital). Participants were enrolled from June 2017 through September 2022 and followed up until 12 weeks' postpartum. Participants comprised 510 individuals (535 pregnancies) diagnosed with gestational diabetes based on World Health Organization 2013 criteria.

Interventions

Randomized 1:1 to either placebo or metformin (maximum dose, 2500 mg) in addition to usual care.

Main Outcomes And Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of insulin initiation or a fasting glucose level of 5.1 mmol/L or greater at gestation weeks 32 or 38.

Results

Among 510 participants (mean age, 34.3 years), 535 pregnancies were randomized. The primary composite outcome was not significantly different between groups and occurred in 150 pregnancies (56.8%) in the metformin group and 167 pregnancies (63.7%) in the placebo group (between-group difference, -6.9% [95% CI, -15.1% to 1.4%]; relative risk, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.78-1.02]; P = .13). Of 6 prespecified secondary maternal outcomes, 3 favored the metformin group, including time to insulin initiation, self-reported capillary glycemic control, and gestational weight gain. Secondary neonatal outcomes differed by group, with smaller neonates (lower mean birth weights, a lower proportion weighing >4 kg, a lower proportion in the >90% percentile, and smaller crown-heel length) in the metformin group without differences in neonatal intensive care needs, respiratory distress requiring respiratory support, jaundice requiring phototherapy, major congenital anomalies, neonatal hypoglycemia, or proportion with 5-minute Apgar scores less than 7.

Conclusion and relevance

Early treatment with metformin was not superior to placebo for the composite primary outcome. Prespecified secondary outcome data support further investigation of metformin in larger clinical trials.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02980276; EudraCT: 2016-001644-19.

Acute stress symptoms 1-2 weeks after stroke predict the subsequent development of post-traumatic stress symptoms: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To date no research has examined the potential influence of acute stress symptoms (ASD) on subsequent development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in stroke survivors. Our objective was to examine whether acute stress symptoms measured 1-2 weeks post-stroke predicted the presence of post-traumatic stress symptoms measured 6-12 weeks later.

DESIGN

Prospective within-groups study.

METHODS

Fifty four participants who completed a measure of acute stress disorder at 1-2 weeks following stroke (time 1) and 31 of these participants completed a measure of posttraumatic stress disorder 6-12 weeks later (time 2). Participants also completed measures of stroke severity, functional impairment, cognitive impairment, depression, anxiety, pre-morbid intelligence and pain across both time points.

RESULTS

Some 22% met the criteria for ASD at baseline and of those, 62.5% went on to meet the criteria for PTSD at follow-up. Meanwhile two of the seven participants (28.6%) who met the criteria for PTSD at Time 2, did not meet the ASD criteria at Time 1 (so that PTSD developed subsequently). A hierarchical multiple regression analysis indicated that the presence of acute stress symptoms at baseline was predictive of post-traumatic stress symptoms at follow-up (R2 = .26, p < .01). Less severe stroke was correlated with higher levels of post-traumatic stress symptoms at Time 2 (rho = .42, p < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight the importance of early assessment and identification of acute stress symptoms in stroke survivors as a risk factor for subsequent PTSD. Both ASD and PTSD were prevalent and the presence of both disorders should be assessed.

Antiplatelet therapy and incident cognitive impairment or dementia-a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

OBJECTIVE

The benefit of antiplatelet therapy in preventing cognitive impairment or dementia is uncertain. We investigated the association between antiplatelet therapy and incident cognitive impairment or dementia in randomised clinical trials.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE and CENTRAL for randomised clinical trials published from database inception through 1 February 2023. Trials that evaluated the association of antiplatelet therapy with incident cognitive impairment or dementia were included. For single-agent antiplatelet, the control group was placebo. For dual agent antiplatelet therapy, the control group was single-agent monotherapy. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to report pooled treatment effects and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The primary outcome was incident cognitive impairment or dementia. Secondary outcomes included change in cognitive test scores.

RESULTS

A total of 11 randomised clinical trials were included (109,860 participants). All reported the incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia on follow-up. The mean (SD) age of trial participants was 66.2 (7.9) years. Antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with a reduced risk of cognitive impairment or dementia (11 trials; 109,860 participants) (3.49% versus 4.18% of patients over a mean trial follow-up of 5.8 years; odds ratio [OR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-1.00]; absolute risk reduction, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.4% to 0.009%]; I2 = 0.0%). Antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with mean change in cognitive test scores.

CONCLUSION

In this meta-analysis, antiplatelet therapy was not significantly associated with a lower risk of incident cognitive impairment or dementia, but the CIs around this outcome do not exclude a modest preventative effect.

Association of Psychosocial Stress With Risk of Acute Stroke

IMPORTANCE

Psychosocial stress is considered a modifiable risk factor for stroke. Given the prevalence of chronic and acute exposure to stress, it represents a potentially attractive target for population-health interventions.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association of psychosocial stress with the risk of acute stroke and explore factors that might modify the association of stress with risk of acute stroke in a large international population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

INTERSTROKE is an international retrospective case-control study of risk factors for first acute stroke in 32 countries in Asia, North and South America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. A total of 13 462 patients with stroke and 13 488 matched controls were recruited between January 11, 2007, and August 8, 2015. The present analyses were performed from June 1 to 30, 2021, and included 13 350 cases and 13 462 controls with available data on psychosocial stress.

EXPOSURES

Psychosocial stress and occurrence of stressful life events within the preceding year were measured using a standardized questionnaire of self-reported stress at home and work.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The association of stress with acute stroke and its subtypes was examined using multivariable conditional logistic regression and factors that might modify the association, particularly self-reported locus of control.

RESULTS

Among 26 812 participants included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age of cases was 62.2 (13.6) years; that of controls, 61.3 (13.3) years; 7960 cases (59.6%) and 8017 controls (59.6%) were men. Several periods of stress and permanent stress were reported for 2745 cases (20.5%) and 1933 controls (14.4%), with marked regional variation in prevalence, with the lowest in China (201 of 3981 [5.0%] among controls and 364 of 3980 [9.1%] among cases) and highest in South East Asia (233 of 855 [26.1%] among controls and 241 of 782 [30.8%] among cases). Increased stress at home (odds ratio [OR], 1.95 [95% CI, 1.77-2.15]) and at work (OR, 2.70 [95% CI, 2.25-3.23]) and recent stressful life events (OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.19-1.43]) were associated with an increased risk of acute stroke on multivariable analyses (vs no self-reported stress). Higher locus of control at home was associated with a reduced odds of all stroke (OR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.68-0.79]), and higher locus of control both at work and at home were associated with a lower odds of acute stroke and significantly diminished the association with stress at work (OR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.88-2.58]; P = .008 for interaction) and home (OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.44-1.98]; P < .001 for interaction) for acute stroke.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Psychosocial stress is a common risk factor for acute stroke. The findings of this case-control study suggest that higher locus of control is associated with lower risk of stroke and may be an important effect modifier of the risk associated with psychosocial stress.

Higher Waist Hip Ratio Genetic Risk Score Is Associated with Reduced Weight Loss in Patients with Severe Obesity Completing a Meal Replacement Programme

Background: A better understanding of the influence of genetic factors on the response to lifestyle interventions in people with obesity may allow the development of more personalised, effective and efficient therapeutic strategies. We sought to determine the influence of six obesity-related genetic risk scores on the magnitude of weight lost by patients with severe obesity who completed a dietary intervention. Methods: In this single-centre prospective cohort study, participants with severe and complicated obesity who completed a 24-week, milk-based meal replacement programme were genotyped to detect the frequency of common risk alleles for obesity and type 2 diabetes-related traits. Genetic risk scores (GRS) for six of these traits were derived. Participants with a potentially deleterious monogenic gene variant were excluded from the analysis. Results: In 93 patients completing the programme who were not carrying a known obesity-related gene mutation, 35.5% had diabetes, 53.8% were female, mean age was 51.4 ± 11 years, mean body mass index was 51.5 ± 8.7 and mean total weight loss percent at 24 weeks was 16 ± 6.3%. The waist-hip ratio (WHR) GRS was inversely associated with percentage total weight loss at 24 weeks (adjusted β for one standard deviation increase in WHR GRS -11.6 [-23.0, -0.3], p = 0.045), and patients in the lowest tertile of WHR GRS lost more weight. Conclusions: Patients with severe and complicated obesity with a genetic predisposition to central fat accumulation had less weight loss in a 24-week milk-based meal replacement programme, but there was no evidence for influence from the five other obesity-related genetic risk scores on the response to dietary restriction.

Anger or emotional upset and heavy physical exertion as triggers of stroke: the INTERSTROKE study

AIMS

In INTERSTROKE, we explored the association of anger or emotional upset and heavy physical exertion with acute stroke, to determine the importance of triggers in a large, international population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

INTERSTROKE was a case-control study of first stroke in 32 countries. Using 13 462 cases of acute stroke we adopted a case-crossover approach to determine whether a trigger within 1 hour of symptom onset (case period), vs. the same time on the previous day (control period), was associated with acute stroke. A total of 9.2% (n = 1233) were angry or emotional upset and 5.3% (n = 708) engaged in heavy physical exertion during the case period. Anger or emotional upset in the case period was associated with increased odds of all stroke [odds ratio (OR) 1.37, 99% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-1.64], ischaemic stroke (OR 1.22, 99% CI, 1.00-1.49), and intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (OR 2.05, 99% CI 1.40-2.99). Heavy physical exertion in the case period was associated with increased odds of ICH (OR 1.62, 99% CI 1.03-2.55) but not with all stroke or ischaemic stroke. There was no modifying effect by region, prior cardiovascular disease, risk factors, cardiovascular medications, time, or day of symptom onset. Compared with exposure to neither trigger during the control period, the odds of stroke associated with exposure to both triggers were not additive.

CONCLUSION

Acute anger or emotional upset was associated with the onset of all stroke, ischaemic stroke, and ICH, while acute heavy physical exertion was associated with ICH only.

505 INTERLEUKIN-6, C-REACTIVE PROTEIN, FIBRINOGEN, AND RISK OF RECURRENCE AFTER ISCHEMIC STROKE: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

Background

Recent randomised trials showed benefit for anti-inflammatory therapies in coronary disease but excluded stroke. The prognostic value of blood inflammatory markers after stroke is uncertain and guidelines do not recommend their routine measurement for risk stratification.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies investigating the association of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and fibrinogen and risk of recurrent stroke or major vascular events (MVEs). We searched EMBASE and Ovid Medline until 10/1/19. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting comparable effect measures.

Results

Of 2,515 reports identified, 39 met eligibility criteria (IL-6, n = 10; CRP, n = 33; fibrinogen, n = 16). An association with recurrent stroke was reported in 12/26 studies (CRP), 2/11 (fibrinogen) and 3/6 (IL-6). On random-effects meta-analysis of comparable studies, CRP was associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke [pooled hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard-deviation (SD) increase in loge-CRP (1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22, p &lt; 0.01)] and MVEs (pooled HR 1.21, CI 1.10-1.34, p &lt; 0.01). Fibrinogen was also associated with recurrent stroke (HR 1.26, CI 1.07-1.47, p &lt; 0.01) and MVEs (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.49, p &lt; 0.01). Trends were identified for IL-6 for recurrent stroke (HR per 1-SD increase 1.17, CI 0.97-1.41, p = 0.10) and MVEs (HR 1.22, CI 0.96-1.55, p = 0.10).

Conclusion

Despite evidence suggesting an association between inflammatory markers and post-stroke vascular recurrence, substantial methodological heterogeneity was apparent between studies. Individual-patient pooled analysis and standardisation of methods are needed to determine the prognostic role of blood inflammatory markers and to improve patient selection for randomised trials of inflammatory therapies.

Colchicine for prevention of vascular inflammation in Non-CardioEmbolic stroke (CONVINCE) - study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Inflammation contributes to unstable atherosclerotic plaque and stroke. In randomised trials in patients with coronary disease, canukinumab (an interleukin-1B antagonist) and colchicine (a tubulin inhibitor with pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects) reduced recurrent vascular events.Hypothesis: Anti-inflammatory therapy with low-dose colchicine plus usual care will reduce recurrent vascular events in patients with non-severe, non-cardioembolic stroke and TIA compared with usual care alone.

DESIGN

CONVINCE is a multi-centre international (in 17 countries) Prospective, Randomised Open-label, Blinded-Endpoint assessment (PROBE) controlled Phase 3 clinical trial in 3154 participants. The intervention is colchicine 0.5 mg/day and usual care versus usual care alone (antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, antihypertensive treatment, lifestyle advice). Included patients are at least 40 years, with non-severe ischaemic stroke (modified Rankin score ≤3) or high-risk TIA (ABCD2 > 3, or positive DWI, or cranio-cervical artery stenosis) within 72 hours-28 days of randomisation, with qualifying stroke/TIA most likely caused by large artery stenosis, lacunar disease, or cryptogenic embolism. Exclusions are stroke/TIA caused by cardio-embolism or other defined cause (e.g. dissection), contra-indication to colchicine (including potential drug interactions), or incapacity for participation in a clinical trial. The anticipated median follow-up will be 36 months. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat.

OUTCOME

The primary outcome is time to first recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, or hospitalisation with unstable angina (non-fatal or fatal).

SUMMARY

CONVINCE will provide high-quality randomised data on the efficacy and safety of anti-inflammatory therapy with colchicine for secondary prevention after stroke.

SCHEDULE

First-patient first-visit was December 2016. Recruitment to complete in 2021, follow-up to complete in 2023.

To assess the confidence levels of psychiatrists in physical healthcare competencies in one irish region, and to explore whether confidence was related to learning opportunities

Introduction

The bi-directional relationship between mental and physical illness is well established. Therefore, in order to lower the already high mortality rates associated with psychiatric disorders, physical health issues must be closely monitored in this population [1,2]. A recent Lancet commission highlights emerging strategies and recommendations for improvement of physical health outcomes in patients with chronic mental disorders. These strategies involve better integration of physical and mental health care, combined with broader implementation of lifestyle interventions to reduce elevated cardiometabolic risk and attenuate medication side-effects [3].

Objectives

To assess psychiatrists’ confidence levels in physical healthcare competencies; to explore whether confidence was related to learning opportunities.

Methods

Physical healthcare learning objectives were extracted from the Irish College of Psychiatrists’ training curriculum. An electronic questionnaire was sent to 50 psychiatrists in one Irish healthcare region with a catchment area of c. 450,000. Participants had to rate confidence levels for each competency on a five-point Likert scale and the availability of learning opportunities for attaining each competency.

Results

66% response rate was achieved. A majority reported confidence in cardiovascular examination, interpreting blood results and evaluating comorbidities. A minority reported confidence in interpreting imaging, electrocardiograms and recognising medical emergencies. This corresponds to a relative paucity of learning opportunities.

Conclusions

Clinical implication Programmes for trainee doctors and CME opportunities for consultant psychiatrists would benefit from an emphasis on physical health examination and modules on interpreting investigations and the recognition of medical emergencies.

Rivaroxaban for Prevention of Covert Brain Infarcts and Cognitive Decline

Background and Purpose:

Covert brain infarcts are associated with cognitive decline. It is not known whether therapies that prevent symptomatic stroke prevent covert infarcts. COMPASS compared rivaroxaban with and without aspirin with aspirin for the prevention of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death in participants with stable vascular disease and was terminated early because of benefits of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily plus aspirin over aspirin. We obtained serial magnetic resonance imagings and cognitive tests in a consenting subgroup of COMPASS patients to examine treatment effects on infarcts, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensities.

Methods:

Baseline and follow-up magnetic resonance imagings were completed in 1445 participants with a mean (SD) interval of 2.0 (0.7) years. Whole-brain T1, T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, T2* sequences were centrally interpreted by blinded, trained readers. Participants had serial measurements of cognition and function. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with incident covert infarcts. Secondary end points were the composite of clinical stroke and covert brain infarcts, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensities.

Results:

At baseline, 493 (34.1%) participants had infarcts. Incident covert infarcts occurred in 55 (3.8%) participants. In the overall trial rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced ischemic stroke by 49% (0.7% versus 1.4%; hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.51 [0.38–0.68]). In the magnetic resonance imaging substudy the effects of rivaroxaban+aspirin versus aspirin were: covert infarcts: 2.7% versus 3.5% (odds ratio [95% CI], 0.77 [0.37–1.60]); Covert infarcts or ischemic stroke: 2.9% versus 5.3% (odds ratio [95% CI], 0.53 [0.27–1.03]). Incident microbleeds occurred in 6.6% of participants and 65.7% of participants had an increase in white matter hyperintensities volume with no effect of treatment for either end point. There was no effect on cognitive tests.

Conclusions:

Covert infarcts were not significantly reduced by treatment with rivaroxaban and aspirin but estimates for the combination of ischemic stroke and covert infarcts were consistent with the effect on ischemic stroke in the overall trial.

Registration:

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01776424.

Genome-Wide Association Study Meta-Analysis of Stroke in 22 000 Individuals of African Descent Identifies Novel Associations With Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke is a complex disease with multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. Blacks endure a nearly 2-fold greater risk of stroke and are 2× to 3× more likely to die from stroke than European Americans.

METHODS

The COMPASS (Consortium of Minority Population Genome-Wide Association Studies of Stroke) has conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of stroke in >22 000 individuals of African ancestry (3734 cases, 18 317 controls) from 13 cohorts.

RESULTS

In meta-analyses, we identified one single nucleotide polymorphism (rs55931441) near the HNF1A gene that reached genome-wide significance (P=4.62×10-8) and an additional 29 variants with suggestive evidence of association (P<1×10-6), representing 24 unique loci. For validation, a look-up analysis for a 100 kb region flanking the COMPASS single nucleotide polymorphism was performed in SiGN (Stroke Genetics Network) Europeans, SiGN Hispanics, and METASTROKE (Europeans). Using a stringent Bonferroni correction P value of 2.08×10-3 (0.05/24 unique loci), we were able to validate associations at the HNF1A locus in both SiGN (P=8.18×10-4) and METASTROKE (P=1.72×10-3) European populations. Overall, 16 of 24 loci showed evidence for validation across multiple populations. Previous studies have reported associations between variants in the HNF1A gene and lipids, C-reactive protein, and risk of coronary artery disease and stroke. Suggestive associations with variants in the SFXN4 and TMEM108 genes represent potential novel ischemic stroke loci.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings represent the most thorough investigation of genetic determinants of stroke in individuals of African descent, to date.

Are large simple trials for dementia prevention possible?

New trials of dementia prevention are needed to test novel strategies and agents. Large, simple, cardiovascular trials have successfully discovered treatments with moderate but worthwhile effects to prevent heart attack and stroke. The design of these trials may hold lessons for the dementia prevention.

Here we outline suitable populations, interventions and outcomes for large simple trials in dementia prevention. We consider what features are needed to maximise efficiency. Populations could be selected by age, clinical or genetic risk factors or clinical presentation. Patients and their families prioritise functional and clinical outcomes over cognitive scores and levels of biomarkers. Loss of particular functions or dementia diagnoses therefore are most meaningful to participants and potential patients and can be measured in large trials.

The size of the population and duration of follow-up needed for dementia prevention trials will be a major challenge and will need collaboration between many clinical investigators, funders and patient organisations.

Effects of a Milk-Based Meal Replacement Program on Weight and Metabolic Characteristics in Adults with Severe Obesity

OBJECTIVE

Low energy meal replacement regimens can induce short-term weight loss in patients with severe obesity, but usually require specially formulated dietary supplements. We sought to determine the effects of a milk-based meal replacement program on anthropometric and metabolic characteristics in adults with severe obesity.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients attending our hospital-based bariatric medicine service who completed a 24-week program consisting of eight weeks of milk-based meal replacement followed by weight stabilisation and maintenance phases. Patients were seen fortnightly by the bariatric physician, nurse and dietitian. We assessed changes in anthropometric and metabolic outcomes in completers at 0, 8, 16 and 24 weeks.

RESULTS

Of 105 program completers available for follow-up, 53.3% were female. Mean age was 51.1±11.2 years. Body weight decreased from 144.0±27.6 kg at baseline to 121.1±25.0 kg at 24 weeks (P<0.001), a mean total body weight loss of 15.9±6.0%, with a reduction in body mass index from 50.6±8.0 to 42.6±7.6 kg m^-2 (P<0.001). In patients with diabetes, haemoglobin A1c decreased from 66.3±13.0 to 48.3±13.5 mmol/mol (P<0.001) and diabetes medication use decreased significantly. There were significant improvements also in lipid profiles and reductions in antihypertensive medication use.

CONCLUSION

These preliminary findings suggest that completion of a 24-week milk-based meal replacement program has large effects on important outcomes in adults with severe obesity. However, attrition was high. Prospective assessment of the efficacy, safety, durability and cost-effectiveness of this intervention seems warranted.

Strength in Numbers: an international consensus conference to develop a novel approach to care delivery for young adults with type 1 diabetes, the D1 Now Study

PLAIN ENGLISH SUMMARY

Many young adults with type 1 diabetes struggle with the day-to-day management of their condition. They often find it difficult to find the time to attend their clinic appointments and to meet with their diabetes healthcare team. Young adults living with type 1 diabetes are not routinely involved in research that may help improve health services other than being invited to take part in studies as research participants. A 3-day international conference was held in Galway in June 2016 called "Strength In Numbers: Teaming up to improve the health of young adults with type 1 diabetes". It aimed to bring together people from a broad variety of backgrounds with an interest in young adults with type 1 diabetes. Young people with type 1 diabetes came together with healthcare professionals, researchers, software developers and policy makers to come up with and agree on a new approach for engaging young adults with type 1 diabetes with their health services and to improve how they manage their diabetes.The people involved in the conference aimed to reach agreement (consensus) on a fixed set of outcome measures called a core outcome set (COS) that the group would recommend future studies involving young adults with type 1 diabetes to use, to suggest a new approach (intervention) for providing health services to young adults with type 1 diabetes, and to come up with health technology ideas that could help deliver the new intervention. Over the 3 days, this diverse international group of people that included young adults living with type 1 diabetes, agreed on a COS, 3 key parts of a new intervention and 1 possible health technology idea that could help with how the overall intervention could be delivered.Involving young adults living with type 1 diabetes in a 3-day conference along with other key groups is an effective method for coming up with a new approach to improve health services for young adults with type 1 diabetes and better support their self-management.

ABSTRACT

Background A 3-day international consensus meeting was hosted by the D1 Now study team in Galway on June 22-24, 2016 called "Strength In Numbers: Teaming up to improve the health of young adults with type 1 diabetes". The aim of the meeting was to bring together young adults with type 1 diabetes, healthcare providers, policy makers and researchers to reach a consensus on strategies to improve engagement, self-management and ultimately outcomes for young adults living with type 1 diabetes. Methods This diverse stakeholder group participated in the meeting to reach consensus on (i) a core outcome set (COS) to be used in future intervention studies involving young adults with type 1 diabetes, (ii) new strategies for delivering health services to young adults and (iii) potential digital health solutions that could be incorporated into a future intervention. Results A COS of 8 outcomes and 3 key intervention components that aim to improve engagement between young adults with type 1 diabetes and service providers were identified. A digital health solution that could potentially compliment the intervention components was proposed. Conclusion The outputs from the 3-day consensus conference, that held patient and public involvement at its core, will help the research team further develop and test the D1 Now intervention for young adults with type 1 diabetes in a pilot and feasibility study and ultimately in a definitive trial. The conference represents a good example of knowledge exchange among different stakeholders for health research and service improvement.

Estimating average attributable fractions with confidence intervals for cohort and case–control studies

Chronic diseases tend to depend on a large number of risk factors, both environmental and genetic. Average attributable fractions were introduced by Eide and Gefeller as a way of partitioning overall disease burden into contributions from individual risk factors; this may be useful in deciding which risk factors to target in disease interventions. Here, we introduce new estimation methods for average attributable fractions that are appropriate for both case–control designs and prospective studies. Confidence intervals, derived using Monte Carlo simulation, are also described. Finally, we introduce a novel approximation for the sample average attributable fraction that will ensure a computationally tractable approach when the number of risk factors is large. An R package, [Formula: see text], implementing the methods described in this manuscript can be downloaded from the CRAN repository.

A MultiCenter Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of Remote Ischemic Preconditioning in Major Vascular Surgery

A pilot randomized controlled trial that evaluated the effect of remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) on clinical outcomes following major vascular surgery was performed. Eligible patients were those scheduled to undergo open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, endovascular aortic aneurysm repair, carotid endarterectomy, and lower limb revascularization procedures. Patients were randomized to RIPC or to control groups. The primary outcome was a composite clinical end point comprising any of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, new-onset arrhythmia, cardiac arrest, congestive cardiac failure, cerebrovascular accident, renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy, mesenteric ischemia, and urgent cardiac revascularization. Secondary outcomes were components of the primary outcome and myocardial injury as assessed by serum troponin values. The primary outcome occurred in 19 (19.2%) of 99 controls and 14 (14.1%) of 99 RIPC group patients ( P = .446). There were no significant differences in secondary outcomes. Our trial generated data that will guide future trials. Further trials are urgently needed.

Supporting the improvement and management of prescribing for urinary tract infections (SIMPle): protocol for a cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

The overuse of antimicrobials is recognized as the main selective pressure driving the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance in human bacterial pathogens. Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most common infections presented in primary care and empirical antimicrobial treatment is currently recommended. Previous research has identified that a substantial proportion of Irish general practitioners (GPs) prescribe antimicrobials for UTIs that are not in accordance with the Guidelines for Antimicrobial Prescribing in Primary Care in Ireland. The aim of this trial is to design, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention on GP antimicrobial prescribing and adult (18 years of age and over) patients' antimicrobial consumption when presenting with a suspected UTI.

METHODS/DESIGN

The Supporting the Improvement and Management of Prescribing for urinary tract infections (SIMPle) study is a three-armed intervention with practice-level randomization. Adult patients presenting with suspected UTIs in primary care will be included in the study.The intervention integrates components for both GPs and patients. For GPs the intervention includes interactive workshops, audit and feedback reports and automated electronic prompts summarizing recommended first-line antimicrobial treatment and, for one intervention arm, a recommendation to consider delayed antimicrobial treatment. For patients, multimedia applications and information leaflets are included. Thirty practices will be recruited to the study; laboratory data indicate that 2,038 patients will be prescribed an antimicrobial in the study. The primary outcome is a change in prescribing of first-line antimicrobials for UTIs in accordance with the Guidelines for Antimicrobial Prescribing in Primary Care in Ireland. The study will take place over 15 months with a six-month intervention period. Data will be collected through a remote electronic anonymized data-extraction system, a text-messaging system and GP and patient interviews and surveys. The intervention will be strengthened by the implementation of a social marketing framework and an economic evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This intervention is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT01913860.

An internal carotid artery aneurysm presenting with dysarthria

A 72-year-old woman presented to her general practitioner with a 4-week history of right neck swelling. Clinical examination elicited a pulsatile mass consistent with a carotid artery aneurysm. Five days later the patient noticed her tongue movements had become awkward with associated dysarthria. Computed tomography confirmed a 4cm internal carotid artery aneurysm arising just distally to the carotid bifurcation. She proceeded to transfemoral diagnostic carotid angiography. Balloon occlusion of the right internal carotid artery origin was performed for a ten-minute period without any neurological deficit.

The decision was taken to proceed to surgical ligation of the origin of the internal carotid artery. Her symptoms of dysarthria have resolved.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.