Survival trends for patients diagnosed with cutaneous malignant melanoma in the Nordic countries 1990-2016: The NORDCAN survival studies

BACKGROUND

The survival in patients diagnosed with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) has improved in the Nordic countries in the last decades. It is of interest to know if these improvements are observed in all ages and for both women and men.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with CMM in the Nordic countries in 1990-2016 were identified in the NORDCAN database. Flexible parametric relative survival models were fitted, except for Iceland where a non-parametric Pohar-Perme approach was used. A range of survival metrics were estimated by sex, both age-standardised and age-specific.

RESULTS

The 5-year relative survival improved in all countries, in both women and men and across age. While the improvement was more pronounced in men, women still had a higher survival at the end of the study period. The survival was generally high, with age-standardised estimates of 5-year relative survival towards the end of the study period ranging from 85% in Icelandic men to 95% in Danish women. The age-standardised and reference-adjusted 5-year crude probability of death due to CMM ranged from 5% in Danish and Swedish women to 13% in Icelandic men.

CONCLUSION

Although survival following CMM was relatively high in the Nordic countries in 1990, continued improvements in survival were observed throughout the study period in both women and men and across age.

Have the recent advancements in cancer therapy and survival benefitted patients of all age groups across the Nordic countries? NORDCAN survival analyses 2002-2021

BACKGROUND

Since the early 2000s, overall and site-specific cancer survival have improved substantially in the Nordic countries. We evaluated whether the improvements have been similar across countries, major cancer types, and age groups.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Using population-based data from the five Nordic cancer registries recorded in the NORDCAN database, we included a cohort of 1,525,854 men and 1,378,470 women diagnosed with cancer (except non-melanoma skin cancer) during 2002-2021, and followed for death until 2021. We estimated 5-year relative survival (RS) in 5-year calendar periods, and percentage points (pp) differences in 5-year RS from 2002-2006 until 2017-2021. Separate analyses were performed for eight cancer sites (i.e. colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, kidney, prostate, and melanoma of skin).

RESULTS

Five-year RS improved across nearly all cancer sites in all countries (except Iceland), with absolute differences across age groups ranging from 1 to 21 pp (all cancer sites), 2 to 20 pp (colorectum), -1 to 36 pp (pancreas), 2 to 28 pp (lung), 0 to 9 pp (breast), -11 to 26 pp (cervix uteri), 2 to 44 pp (kidney), -2 to 23 pp (prostate) and -3 to 30 pp (skin melanoma). The oldest patients (80-89 years) exhibited lower survival across all countries and sites, although with varying improvements over time.

INTERPRETATION

Nordic cancer patients have generally experienced substantial improvements in cancer survival during the last two decades, including major cancer sites and age groups. Although survival has improved over time, older patients remain at a lower cancer survival compared to younger patients.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of solid cancers - A prospective pooled multi-cohort register study

Smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical inactivity are key lifestyle risk factors for cancer. Previously these have been mostly examined singly or combined as an index, assuming independent and equivalent effects to cancer risk. The aim of our study was to systematically examine the joint pairwise and interactive effects of these lifestyle factors on the risk of a first solid primary cancer in a multi-cohort prospective setting. We used pooled data from seven Finnish health survey studies during 1972-2015, with 197,551 participants diagnosed with 16,373 solid malignant primary tumors during follow-up. Incidence of any cancer was analyzed separately without and with lung cancers using Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. When excluding lung cancer, the highest risk of any cancer in men was observed for smokers with a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.25-1.48) and in women for smokers consuming alcohol (HR 1.22, 1.14-1.30). No statistically significant interactions between any studied risk factor pairs were observed. When including lung cancer, the highest HRs among men were observed for smokers who consume alcohol (HR 1.72, 1.57-1.89) and among women for smokers who were physically inactive (HR 1.38, 1.27-1.49). Smoking combined with other lifestyle factors at any exposure level resulted in highest pairwise risks, both in men and women. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention, but also the importance of preventing obesity and reducing alcohol consumption.

Every tenth malignant solid tumor attributed to overweight and alcohol consumption: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown that some four in ten cancers are attributable to a few key risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate cohort-based population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Finland for potentially modifiable cancer risk factors.

METHODS

Data from eight health studies including 253,953 subjects with 29,802 incident malignant solid tumors were analysed using Bayesian multivariate regression model with multiplicative risk factor effects. We estimated the effects of smoking, excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical activity, parity and education on cancer incidence and related PAFs by cancer site, accounting for competing mortality.

RESULTS

PAF for all cancer sites and exposures combined was 34% (95% credible interval 29%-39%) in men and 24% (19%-28%) in women. In men, 23% (21%-27%) and in women 8% (6%-9%) of all cancers were attributed to smoking. PAF related to excess body weight was 4% (2%-6%) in men and 5% (2%-7%) in women, to alcohol 7% (3%-10%) in men and 4% (0%-7%) in women, and to excess body weight and alcohol combined 10% (6%-15%) in men and 9% (4%-13%) in women.

CONCLUSION

Smoking was the most important factor contributing to cancer burden in Finnish men and women over the last 40 years. The contribution of excess body weight and alcohol consumption together outweighed the role of smoking in women. As the prevalence of overweight is expected to increase, more efficient public health measures supporting adherence to healthy weight are essential to reduce cancer burden.

Risk of gastric carcinoma will be low in generations born at turn of the 20th and 21st centuries in Finland. Modelling NORDCAN data of the age group specific incidence rates of gastric cancer with PLS-regression and with attention to age ('age effect') and year of the birth ('cohort effect')

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

We examined in NORDCAN database how the annual age group-specific incidence rates (IR) of gastric cancer (GCA), and correspondingly the GCA risk, have declined in Finland during the twentieth century, and whether this decline corresponds to a decrease in the cohort-specific prevalence rate of Helicobacter pylori (Hp) gastritis that is considered an important precancerous risk condition for GCA.

RESULTS

In modelling with partial least squares regression (PLSR), the logarithmically transformed IRs (ln(IR) of GCA were well explained with age and birth cohort as explanatory model variables. By considering the observed (actual) and the PLSR-modelled IRs, the IR of GCA (and the risk of GCA) has decreased gradually in Finland from 1900 onward, cohort by cohort. By prediction of the future with PLSR, the IRs of GCA will be markedly lower in all cohorts during the twenty-first century than in the twentieth century. By PLSR modelling, less than 10 GCA cases per 100,000 people are predicted to appear annually in cohorts (generations) born at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, even when these people will be 60-80 years old in the years 2060-2070.

CONCLUSIONS

The IR of GCA and GCA risk progressively declined by cohort in Finland during the whole twentieth century. This decline corresponds in extent and time window to earlier observations in the decline of the prevalence rate of Hp gastritis in the same birth cohorts and supports the hypothesis of the role of Hp gastritis as an important risk condition of GCA.

Use of health services one year before primary colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) patient pathways focus typically on periods after confirmed diagnosis and only limited data are available on pathways prior to cancer diagnosis. The aim of the study was to describe the use of health services (HS) one year before diagnosis among CRC patients in Finland. We also studied the role of sex, age, stage, and university hospital district in relation to the use of HS during the pre-diagnostic phase. This information is expected to bring light on the question why CRC is often not found in its early stages.

METHODS

Incident CRC cases (N = 3115) concerning year 2015 were retrieved from the Finnish Cancer Registry and linked with data from the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare on primary or specialised care outpatient visits or inpatient episodes over one year prior to CRC diagnosis. We modelled the average number of HS events per patient using Poisson regression model with log-link. Change points for monthly HS event rates and 95% CIs one year before diagnosis were evaluated using Poisson broken line regression models.

RESULTS

Around 10% of patients diagnosed in 2015 had no events prior to cancer leaving 2816 CRCs in the study. Of all pre-diagnostic events (N = 23268), 86% were outpatient events and 14% inpatient episodes. More than half of the inpatient episodes (65%) started as urgent admissions. The use of HS started to increase 3-4 months before diagnosis. The average number of pre-diagnostic HS events per patient varied by sex, age, stage and university hospital district. Overall, men had more events per patient than women and older patients had more events than younger patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The amount of inpatient episodes starting as urgent admissions indicate potential bottlenecks in the access to health services. An increase in service use only 3-4 months prior to diagnosis reflects a need for advice both for health care professionals and the general population in recognising symptoms of CRC.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Sex-specific familial aggregation of cancers in Finland

Despite the fact that the effect of sex on the occurrence of cancers has been studied extensively, it remains unclear whether sex modifies familial aggregation of cancers. We explored sex-specific familial aggregation of cancers in a large population-based historical cohort study. We combined cancer and population registry data, inferring familial relationships from birth municipality-surname-sex (MNS) combinations. Our data consisted of 391,529 incident primary cancers in 377,210 individuals with 319,872 different MNS combinations. Cumulative sex-specific numbers of cancers were compared to expected cumulative incidence. Familial cancer risks were similar between the sexes in our population-wide analysis. Families with concordant cancer in both sexes exhibited similar sex-specific cancer risks. However, some families had exceptionally high sex-specific cumulative cancer incidence. We identified six families with exceptionally strong aggregation in males: three families with thyroid cancer (ratio between observed and expected incidence 184.6; 95% credible interval (95% CI) 33.1–1012.7, 173.4 (95% CI 65.4–374.3), and 161.4 (95% CI 29.6–785.7), one with stomach (ratio 14.4 (95% CI 6.9–37.2)), colon (ratio 15.5 (95% CI 5.7–56.3)) cancers and one with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (ratio 33.5 (95% CI 17.2–207.6)). Our results imply that familial aggregation of cancers shows no sex-specific preference. However, the atypical sex-specific aggregation of stomach cancer, colon cancer, thyroid cancer and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in certain families is difficult to fully explain with present knowledge of possible causes, and could yield useful knowledge if explored further.

Periodic trends in geographical variation of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Finland between 1985 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of regional variation of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and PCa-specific mortality is essential in the assessment of equity in a national healthcare system. We evaluated PCa incidence and PCa-specific mortality between different municipalities and hospital districts in Finland over 1985-2019.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Men diagnosed with PCa in Finland from 1985 through 2019 were retrieved from Finnish Cancer Registry. Age-standardized PCa incidence and mortality rates were estimated by municipality and hospital district as well as municipality urbanization, education, and income level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Standard deviations (SD) of the regional rates were compared between periods from 1985-1989 to 2015-2019.

RESULTS

We identified 123,185 men diagnosed with any stage PCa between 1985 and 2019. SD of PCa incidence rate (per 100,000 person-years) showed that the total variation of PCa incidence between different municipalities was substantial and varied over time: from 22.2 (95% CI, 17.1-27.8) in 1985-1989 to 56.5 (95% CI, 49.8-64.5) in 2000-2004. The SD of PCa mortality rate between all municipalities was from 9.0 (95% CI, 6.6-11.8) in 2005-2009 to 2.4 (95% CI, 0.9-4.8) in 2015-2019. There was a trend toward a lower PCa-specific mortality rate in municipalities with higher education level.

DISCUSSION

Regional variation in the incidence rate of PCa became more evident after initiation of PSA testing in Finland, which indicates that early diagnostic practice (PSA testing) of PCa has been different in different parts of the country. Variation in the national PCa mortality rate was indeed recognizable, however, this variation diminished at the same time as the mortality rate declined in Finland. It seems that after the initiation period of PSA testing, PSA has equalized PCa mortality outcomes in Finland.

Worldwide trends in population-based survival for children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia, by subtype, during 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual data from 258 cancer registries in 61 countries

BACKGROUND

Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0-14 years) and adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000-14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0-24 years).

METHODS

We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis.

FINDINGS

164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010-14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010-14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000-14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries.

INTERPRETATION

This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group.

FUNDING

Children with Cancer UK, the Institut National du Cancer, La Ligue Contre le Cancer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Swiss Re, Swiss Cancer Research foundation, Swiss Cancer League, Rossy Family Foundation, US National Cancer Institute, and the American Cancer Society.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of colorectal cancer: a prospective pooled multicohort study

BACKGROUND

Several lifestyle factors are associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Although lifestyle factors co-occur, in most previous studies these factors have been studied focusing upon a single risk factor or assuming independent effects between risk factors.

AIM

To examine the pairwise effects and interactions of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and body mass index (BMI) with risk of subsequent colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used METCA cohort data (pooled data from seven population-based Finnish health behavior survey studies during years 1972-2015) consisting of 171 063 women and men. Participants' smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and BMI measures were gathered, and participants were categorized into those exposed and those not exposed. The incidence of CRC was modeled by Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. The cohort members were followed-up through register linkage to the Finnish Cancer Registry for first primary CRC case until the end of 2015. Follow-up time was 1715, 690 person years. The highest pairwise CRC risk was among male smokers who had overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² ) (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.36-2.26) and women who had overweight and consumed alcohol (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14-1.85). Overall, among men the association of lifestyle factors and CRC risk was stronger than among women. In men, both having overweight and being a smoker combined with any other adverse lifestyle factor increased CRC risk. Among women, elevated CRC risks were observed for those who were physically inactive and who consumed alcohol or had overweight. No statistically significant interactions were detected between pairs of lifestyle factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study strengthens the evidence of overweight, smoking, and alcohol consumption as CRC risk factors. Substantial protective benefits in CRC risk can be achieved by preventing smoking, maintaining BMI to <25 kg/m² and not consuming alcohol.

Incidence trends and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers: Pooled analyses of seven cohorts

The trends in incidence of lung cancer in never smokers are unclear as well as the significance of risk factors. We studied time trends in the incidence and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers in Finland in a large, pooled cohort. We pooled data from seven Finnish health cohorts from the period between 1972 and 2015 with 106 193 never smokers. The harmonised risk factors included education, alcohol consumption, physical activity, height and BMI. We retrieved incident lung cancers from the nation-wide Finnish Cancer Registry. We estimated average annual percent change (AAPC) and the effects of risk factors on cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer using Poisson regression. We detected 47 lung cancers in never smoking men (n = 31 859) and 155 in never smoking women (n = 74 334). The AAPC of lung cancer incidence was -3.30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.68% to -0.88%, P = .009) in never smoking men and 0.00% (95% CI: -1.57% to 1.60%, P = .996) in never smoking women. Of the five studied risk factors only greater height in women had a statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer (multivariate HR = 1.84, 95%CI: 1.08 to 3.12). It is plausible that tobacco control measures focused on working places have reduced passive smoking among men more than among women, which could explain the declining trend in lung cancer incidence in never smoker men but not in never smoker women. As tobacco control measures have not been targeted to domestic environments, it is likely that women's exposure to passive smoking has continued longer.

Variation in cancer survival between hospital districts and within them in Finland

BACKGROUND

Monitoring regional variation in population-based cancer survival is useful for assessing equity in national health-care system. This study quantifies variation in survival between municipalities and hospital districts responsible for primary care and for specialised care, respectively, in Finland.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Five-year relative survival of 11 cancers and close to 700,000 patients was estimated by municipality in Finland over 1962-2016 using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Variation (i) between hospital districts, (ii) between municipalities within hospital districts, and (iii) between all municipalities (total variation) were quantified by the standard deviation of 5-year relative survival standardised by the average survival level.

RESULTS

In 2007-2016, the largest variation in 5-year relative survival between all municipalities was in stomach, prostate, kidney and liver cancer and skin melanoma. In male skin melanoma, prostate, and kidney cancer and in male and female pancreatic cancer, there was substantial and statistically significant variation between hospital districts, too. Variation within hospital districts was on average 67% (95% posterior interval [58%,76%]) out of the total variation and had decreased by 18% [2%, 33%] from 1997-2006.

CONCLUSION

The decrease in variation within hospital districts suggests that equity in diagnostics and primary care has improved in Finland. However, the variation between hospital districts in skin melanoma, prostate and kidney cancer reflects differences in early diagnostics. In pancreatic cancer, substantial variation between hospital districts may relate to regional differences in the accessibility and the quality of cancer treatments.

Glioblastoma survival is improving despite increasing incidence rates: a nationwide study between 2000 and 2013 in Finland

BACKGROUND

We assessed population-level changes in glioblastoma survival between 2000 and 2013 in Finland, with focus on elderly patients (>70 y) in order to assess if changes in treatment of glioblastoma are reflected also in population-based survival rates.

METHODS

We identified all patients (age ≥18 y) from the Finnish Cancer Registry (FCR) with a histopathological diagnosis of primary glioblastoma in 2000-2013. Patients were followed up until December 2015. The accuracy of register-based search of glioblastoma patients was internally validated. We report age-standardized relative survival ratios and relative excess risks (RERs) of death in 2000-2006 (pre-period) and 2007-2013 (post-period).

RESULTS

We identified 2045 glioblastoma patients from the FCR. The accuracy of the FCR-based search was 97%. Median age was 63.3 years, and 42% were women. Incidence increased on average by 1.6% (P = 0.004) and median age by 0.4 years per calendar year. Between the pre- and post-periods, the proportion of patients >70 years increased from 24% to 27%. In >70-year-old patients, the median survival time increased from 3.6 months in 2000-2006 to 4.5 months in 2007-2013 (RER 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68-0.98). In ≤70-year-old patients, the median survival time increased from 9.3 months in 2000-2006 to 11.7 months in 2007-2013 (RER 0.74, 95% CI: 0.67-0.82).

CONCLUSION

Despite the increased proportion of elderly glioblastoma patients, population-level survival of glioblastoma patients has improved since the year 2000. However, increasing incidence, increasing age of patients, and poor survival in elderly are alarming, and future studies should perhaps focus more on elderly.

Survival and mortality of elderly men with localized prostate cancer managed with primary androgen deprivation therapy or by primary observation

BACKGROUND

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) remains a primary treatment for localized prostate cancer (PCa) even though there is no evidence that its use is beneficial in the absence of curative treatment.

METHODS

Men aged ≥70 years (n = 16,534) diagnosed with localized PCa from 1985 to 2014 and managed either with primary observation or ADT in the absence of curative treatment were included. The cases were identified from the population-based Finnish Cancer Registry. We estimated the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for overall mortality by treatment group. We determined the relative risk (RR) of PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) and other-cause mortality between the two treatment groups. Survival was determined using the life table method. Two age groups (70-79 years and ≥ 80 years) and three calendar time cohorts (1985-1994, 1995-2004, and 2005-2014) were compared following adjustment of propensity score matching between the treatment groups with four covariates (age, year of diagnosis, educational level, and hospital district). Follow-up continued until death or until December 31, 2015.

RESULTS

Patients in the observation group had lower overall SMRs than those in the ADT group in both age cohorts over the entire study period. PCSM was higher in men aged 70-79 years undergoing primary ADT compared to those managed by observation only (RR: 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29-2.23 [1985-1994]; RR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.35-1.84 [1995-2004]; and RR 2.71, 95% CI: 2.08-3.53 [2005-2014]); p = 0.005 for periodic trend. A similar trend over time was also observed in men aged > 80 years; (p for age-period interaction = 0.237). Overall survival was also higher among men in their 70's managed by observation compared to those undergoing ADT.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary ADT within four months period from diagnosis is not associated with improved long-term overall survival or decreased PCSM compared to primary conservative management for men with localized PCa. However, this observational study's conclusions should be weighted with confounding factors related to cancer aggressiveness and comorbidities.

Disparities in glioblastoma survival by case volume: a nationwide observational study

Introduction

High hospital case volumes are associated with improved treatment outcomes for numerous diseases. We assessed the association between academic non-profit hospital case volume and survival of adult glioblastoma patients.

Methods

From the nationwide Finnish Cancer Registry, we identified all adult (≥ 18 years) patients with histopathological diagnoses of glioblastoma from 2000 to 2013. Five university hospitals (treating all glioblastoma patients in Finland) were classified as high-volume (one hospital), middle-volume (one hospital), and low-volume (three hospitals) based on their annual numbers of cases. We estimated one-year survival rates, estimated median overall survival times, and compared relative excess risk (RER) of death between high, middle, and low-volume hospitals.

Results

A total of 2,045 patients were included. The mean numbers of annually treated patients were 54, 40, and 17 in the high, middle, and low-volume hospitals, respectively. One-year survival rates and median survival times were higher and longer in the high-volume (39%, 9.3 months) and medium-volume (38%, 8.9 months) hospitals than in the low-volume (32%, 7.8 months) hospitals. RER of death was higher in the low-volume hospitals than in the high-volume hospital (RER = 1.19, 95% CI 1.07–1.32, p = 0.002). There was no difference in RER of death between the high-volume and medium-volume hospitals (p = 0.690).

Conclusion

Higher glioblastoma case volumes were associated with improved survival. Future studies should assess whether this association is due to differences in patient-specific factors or treatment quality.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11060-020-03428-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Trends of colorectal cancer incidence by education and socioeconomic status in Finland

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate if the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with education and socioeconomic status (SES) in Finland, and if there are any changes in incidence differences between the groups over the period 1976-2014.Material and methods: CRC cases (N = 77,614) were retrieved from the Finnish Cancer Registry and linked with information on the education level and SES from Statistics Finland. We used Poisson regression model to quantify differences in incidence rates between the groups, and to assess changes over calendar time.Results and conclusions: Colon cancer incidence was higher among the highly educated, than in those with basic education. Similar differences were observed by SES in men. Incidence rates increased steeply over time among men with basic education (from 16.7/100,000 in 1976-1979 to 31.8 in 2010-2014), resulting in narrowed differences between the groups (p < .001). Incidence trends of proximal and distal colon and rectal cancer in men showed similar patterns. Heterogeneity across time periods by SES was observed only in colon cancer incidence in men (p = .009). No such large differences were detected in women. Steep increase in colon cancer incidence in men with basic education, and the respective persistent high incidence in the highly educated highlights the importance of focusing the preventive measures on modifiable lifestyle factors in order to reduce CRC incidence and to narrow the educational and socioeconomic health differences.

The impact of socioeconomic status on stage specific prostate cancer survival and mortality before and after introduction of PSA test in Finland

Socioeconomic status (SES) has an impact on prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes. Men with high SES have higher incidence and lower mortality of PCa versus lower SES males. PCa cases diagnosed in Finland in 1985-2014 (N = 95,076) were identified from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Information on education level (EL) was obtained from Statistics Finland. EL was assessed with three-tiered scale: basic, upper secondary and higher education. PCa stage at diagnosis was defined as localized, metastatic or unknown. Years of diagnosis 1985-1994 were defined as pre-PSA period and thereafter as post-PSA period. We report PCa-specific survival (PCSS) and relative risks (RR) for PCa specific mortality (PCSM) among cancer cases in Finland, where healthcare is 100% publicly reimbursed and inequality in healthcare services low. Men with higher EL had markedly better 10-year PCSS: 68 versus 63% in 1985-1994 and 90 versus 85% in 1995-2004 compared to basic EL in localized PCa. The RR for PCSM among men with localized PCa and higher EL compared to basic EL was 0.76(95%confidence interval (CI) 0.66-0.88) in 1985-1994 and 0.61(95%CI 0.53-0.70) in 1995-2004. Variation in PCSS and PCSM between EL categories was evident in metastatic PCa, too. The difference in PCSM between EL categories was larger in the first 10-year post-PSA period than before that but decreased thereafter in localized PCa, suggesting PSA testing became earlier popular among men with high EL. In summary, higher SES/EL benefit PCa survival both in local and disseminated disease and the effect of EL was more pronounced in early post-PSA period.

Comparing net survival estimators of cancer patients

The net survival of a patient diagnosed with a given disease is a quantity often interpreted as the hypothetical survival probability in the absence of causes of death other than the disease. In a relative survival framework, net survival summarises the excess mortality that patients experience compared with their relevant reference population. Based on follow-up data from the Finnish Cancer Registry, we derived simulation scenarios that describe survival of patients in eight cancer sites reflecting different excess mortality patterns in order to compare the performance of the classical Ederer II estimator and the new estimator proposed by Pohar Perme et al. At 5 years, the age-standardised Ederer II estimator performed equally well as the Pohar Perme estimator with the exception of melanoma in which the Pohar Perme estimator had a smaller mean squared error (MSE). At 10 and 15 years, the age-standardised Ederer II performed most often better than the Pohar Perme estimator. The unstandardised Ederer II estimator had the largest MSE at 5 years. However, its MSE was often superior to those of the other estimators at 10 and 15 years, especially in sparse data. Both the Pohar Perme and the age-standardised Ederer II estimator are valid for 5-year net survival of cancer patients. For longer-term net survival, our simulation results support the use of the age-standardised Ederer II estimator.

Age-related incidence of cervical cancer supports two aetiological components: a population-based register study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether age-related incidence of cervical cancer supports two aetiological components and to assess trends in these components due to risk factors and to organised screening in Finland.

DESIGN

Population-based register study.

SETTING

Finnish Cancer Registry.

POPULATION

Cervical cancer cases and female population in Finland in 1953-2012.

METHODS

Cervical cancer incidence was estimated using Poisson regression where age-specific incidence consists of two (early-age and late-age) normally distributed components.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Accumulated net risks (incidences) and numbers of cancer cases attributed to each age-related component by calendar time.

RESULTS

The accumulated cervical cancer incidence in 2008-2012 was only 30% of that in 1953-1962, before the screening started. The fit of the observed age-specific rates and the rates based on the two-component model was good. In 1953-62, the accumulated net risk ratio (RR; early-age versus late-age) was 0.42 (95% CI 0.29-0.61). The early-age component disappeared in 1973-77 (RR 0.00; 95% CI 0.00-0.08). Thereafter, the risk for the early-age component increased, whereas the risk for the late-age component decreased, and in 2008-2012 the RR was 0.55 (95% CI 0.24-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

In Finland, cervical cancer incidence has two age-related components which are likely to indicate differences in risk factors of each component. The trend in risk of both components followed the effects of organised screening. Furthermore, the risk related to the early-age component followed changes in risk factors, such as oncogenic HPV infections and other sexually transmitted diseases and smoking habits.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Cervical cancer incidence has two age-related components which are likely to have differencies in their aetiology.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Long-Term Excess Mortality After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Background and Purpose—

There is high case-fatality rate and loss of productive life-years related to aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) but data on long-term survival of patients with aSAH are scarce. We aim to evaluate long-term excess mortality and related risk factors after an aSAH event.

Methods—

Survivors (n=3078) of aSAH who had survived for ≥1 year were reviewed for this retrospective follow-up study, which was conducted in the Department of Neurosurgery in Helsinki between 1980 and 2007. Follow-up started 1 year after the aSAH and continued until death or the end of 2012 (48 918 patient-years). Mortality and relative survival ratios were derived using a matched general population.

Results—

Survivors of aSAH after 20 years showed 17% excess mortality compared with the general population. Even young patients and patients with good recovery showed excess mortality. The highest excess mortality was among patients with multiple aneurysms, old age, poor preoperative clinical condition, conservative aneurysm treatment, and unfavorable clinical outcome at 1 year.

Conclusions—

Even after initially favorable recovery from an aSAH, survivors experience excess mortality in the long run in comparison to a matched general population. Cardiovascular disease at younger age and cerebrovascular events were overrepresented as causes of death, which indicates the importance of treatment of vascular risk factors. Young patients and patients with multiple aneurysms who are recovering from an aSAH should be followed-up and treated most actively.

Effectiveness of screening for colorectal cancer with a faecal occult-blood test, in Finland

Background

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) with guaiac-based faecal occult-blood test (FOBT) has been reported to reduce CRC mortality in randomised trials in the 1990s, but not in routine screening, so far. In Finland, a large randomised study on biennial FOB screening for CRC was gradually nested as part of the routine health services from 2004. We evaluate the effectiveness of screening as a public health policy in the largest population so far reported.

Methods

We randomly allocated (1:1) men and women aged 60–69 years to those invited for screening and those not invited (controls), between 2004 and 2012. This resulted in 180 210 subjects in the screening arm and 180 282 in the control arm. In 2012, the programme covered 43% of the target age population in Finland.

Results

The median follow-up time was 4.5 years (maximum 8.3 years), with a total of 1.6 million person-years. The CRC incidence rate ratio between the screening and control arm was 1.11 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). The mortality rate ratio from CRC between the screening and control arm was 1.04 (0.84 to 1.28), respectively. The CRC mortality risk ratio was 0.88 (0.66 to 1.16) and 1.33 (0.94 to 1.87) in males and females, respectively.

Conclusions

We did not find any effect in a randomised health services study of FOBT screening on CRC mortality. The substantial effect difference between males and females is inconsistent with the evidence from randomised clinical trials and with the recommendations of several international organisations. Even if our findings are still inconclusive, they highlight the importance of randomised evaluation when new health policies are implemented.

Trial registration

002_2010_august.

Chernobyl fallout and cancer incidence in Finland

Twenty-five years have passed since the Chernobyl accident, but its health consequences remain to be well established. Finland was one of the most heavily affected countries by the radioactive fallout outside the former Soviet Union. We analyzed the relation of the estimated external radiation exposure from the fallout to cancer incidence in Finland in 1988-2007. The study cohort comprised all ∼ 3.8 million Finns who had lived in the same dwelling for 12 months following the accident (May 1986-April 1987). Radiation exposure was estimated using data from an extensive mobile dose rate survey. Cancer incidence data were obtained for the cohort divided into four exposure categories (the lowest with the first-year committed dose <0.1 mSv and the highest ≥ 0.5 mSv) allowing for a latency of 5 years for leukemia and thyroid cancer, and 10 years for other cancers. Of the eight predefined cancer sites regarded as radiation-related from earlier studies, only colon cancer among women showed an association with exposure from fallout [excess rate ratio per increment in exposure category 0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11]. No such effect was observed for men, or other cancer sites. Our analysis of a large cohort over two decades did not reveal an increase in cancer incidence following the Chernobyl accident, with the possible exception of colon cancer among women. The largely null findings are consistent with extrapolation from previous studies suggesting that the effect is likely to remain too small to be empirically detectable and of little public health impact.

Choosing the net survival method for cancer survival estimation

BACKGROUND

A new net survival method has been introduced by Pohar Perme et al. (2012 [4]) and recommended to substitute the relative survival methods in current use for evaluating population-based cancer survival.

METHODS

The new method is based on the use of continuous follow-up time, and is unbiased only under non-informative censoring of the observed survival. However, the population-based cancer survival is often evaluated based on annually or monthly tabulated follow-up intervals. An empirical investigation based on data from the Finnish Cancer Registry was made into the practical importance of the censoring and the level of data tabulation. A systematic comparison was made against the earlier recommended Ederer II method of relative survival using the two currently available computer programs (Pohar Perme (2013) [10] and Dickman et al. (2013) [11]).

RESULTS

With exact or monthly tabulated data, the Pohar-Perme and the Ederer II methods give, on average, results that are at five years of follow-up less than 0.5% units and at 10 and 14 years 1-2% units apart from each other. The Pohar-Perme net survival estimator is prone to random variation and may result in biased estimates when exact follow-up times are not available or follow-up is incomplete. With annually tabulated follow-up times, estimates can deviate substantially from those based on more accurate observations, if the actuarial approach is not used.

CONCLUSION

At 5 years, both the methods perform well. In longer follow-up, the Pohar-Perme estimates should be interpreted with caution using error margins. The actuarial approach should be preferred, if data are annually tabulated.

Early and long-term excess mortality in 227 patients with intracranial dural arteriovenous fistulas

Object

The aim of this study was to assess the early and long-term excess mortality in patients with intracranial dural arteriovenous fistula (DAVF) compared with a matched general Finnish population in an unselected, population-based series.

Methods

The authors identified 227 patients with DAVFs admitted to 2 of the 5 Departments of Neurosurgery in Finland—Helsinki and Kuopio University Hospitals—between 1944 and 2006. All patients were followed until death or the end of 2009. Long-term excess mortality was estimated using the relative survival ratio compared with the general Finnish population matched by age, sex, and calendar year.

Results

The median follow-up period was 10 years (range 0–44 years). Two-thirds (67%) of the DAVFs were located in the region of transverse and sigmoid sinuses. Cortical venous drainage (CVD) was present in 28% of the DAVFs (18% transverse and sigmoid sinus, 42% others). Of the 61 deaths counted, 11 (18%) were during the first 12 months and were mainly caused by treatment complications (5 of 11, 45%). The 1-year survivors presenting with hemorrhage experienced excess mortality until 7 years from admission. However, DAVFs with CVD were associated with significant, continuous excess mortality. There were more cerebrovascular and cardiovascular deaths in this group of patients than expected in the general Finnish population. Location other than transverse and sigmoid sinuses was also associated with excess mortality.

Conclusions

In the patients with DAVF there was excess mortality during the first 12 months, mainly due to treatment complications. Thereafter, their overall long-term survival became similar to that of the matched general population. However, DAVFs with CVD and those located in regions other than transverse and sigmoid sinuses were associated with marked long-term excess mortality after the first 12 months.

Fallout from the Chernobyl accident and overall cancer incidence in Finland

AIM

We studied whether incidence of all cancer sites combined was associated with the radiation exposure due to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in Finland. An emphasis was on the first decade after the accident to assess the suggested "promotion effect".

METHODS

The segment of Finnish population with a stable residence in the first post-Chernobyl year (2 million people) was studied. The analyses were based on a 250m × 250m grid squares covering all of Finland and all cancer cases except cancers of the breast, prostate and lung. Cancer incidence in four exposure areas (based on first-year dose due to external exposure <0.1 mSv, 0.1-1.3, 0.3-0.5, or ≥ 0.5 mSv) was compared before the Chernobyl accident (1981-1985) and after it (1988-2007) taking into account cancer incidence trends for a longer period prior to the accident (since 1966).

RESULTS

There were no systematic differences in the cancer incidence in relation to radiation exposure in any calendar period, or any subgroup by sex or age at accident.

CONCLUSION

The current large and comprehensive cohort analysis of the relatively low levels of the Chernobyl fallout in Finland did not observe a cancer promotion effect.

Long-term excess mortality in pediatric patients with cerebral aneurysms

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Knowledge of the long-term excess mortality in pediatric aneurysm patients is lacking. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term excess mortality of 102 pediatric patients with cerebral aneurysm treated at the department of neurosurgery at Helsinki University Central Hospital between 1937 and 2009.

METHODS

Patients were followed from diagnosis until death or the end of the year 2010. Relative survival ratio provided the measure of excess mortality in these patients compared with mortality of the general Finnish population matched by age, sex, and calendar time.

RESULTS

A majority of the patients (n=89) presented with subarachnoid hemorrhage. Aneurysms (n=118) were treated operatively (n=79), endovascularly (n=1), or conservatively (n=36). The mean follow-up time was 26.8 years (range, 0-55.6 years). By the end of follow-up, 34 of the 102 patients had died; 26 of these deaths (76%) were aneurysm-related. There was overall excess mortality of 10% (cumulative relative survival ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80-0.96) and 19% (cumulative relative survival ratio, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-0.91) at 20 and 40 years after the diagnosis among the 1-year subarachnoid hemorrhage survivors, respectively. The excess mortality was particularly high in boys. There was no long-term excess mortality among patients with unruptured aneurysms. Aneurysm-related deaths included rebleedings from open or partially occluded aneurysms, epileptic seizures, de novo and recurrent aneurysms, or sequelae of subarachnoid hemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

There is long-term excess mortality in pediatric patients with aneurysm even decades after successful treatment of a ruptured aneurysm, especially among boys. The excess mortality is mainly aneurysm-related.

Cure fraction model with random effects for regional variation in cancer survival

Assessing regional differences in the survival of cancer patients is important but difficult when separate regions are small or sparsely populated. In this paper, we apply a mixture cure fraction model with random effects to cause-specific survival data of female breast cancer patients collected by the population-based Finnish Cancer Registry. Two sets of random effects were used to capture the regional variation in the cure fraction and in the survival of the non-cured patients, respectively. This hierarchical model was implemented in a Bayesian framework using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm. To avoid poor mixing of the Markov chain, when the variance of either set of random effects was close to zero, posterior simulations were based on a parameter-expanded model with tailor-made proposal distributions in Metropolis steps. The random effects allowed the fitting of the cure fraction model to the sparse regional data and the estimation of the regional variation in 10-year cause-specific breast cancer survival with a parsimonious number of parameters. Before 1986, the capital of Finland clearly stood out from the rest, but since then all the 21 hospital districts have achieved approximately the same level of survival.

Dietary intervention in infancy and later signs of beta-cell autoimmunity

BACKGROUND

Early exposure to complex dietary proteins may increase the risk of beta-cell autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in children with genetic susceptibility. We tested the hypothesis that supplementing breast milk with highly hydrolyzed milk formula would decrease the cumulative incidence of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in such children.

METHODS

In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned 230 infants with HLA-conferred susceptibility to type 1 diabetes and at least one family member with type 1 diabetes to receive either a casein hydrolysate formula or a conventional, cow's-milk-based formula (control) whenever breast milk was not available during the first 6 to 8 months of life. Autoantibodies to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), the insulinoma-associated 2 molecule (IA-2), and zinc transporter 8 were analyzed with the use of radiobinding assays, and islet-cell antibodies were analyzed with the use of immunofluorescence, during a median observation period of 10 years (mean, 7.5). The children were monitored for incident type 1 diabetes until they were 10 years of age.

RESULTS

The unadjusted hazard ratio for positivity for one or more autoantibodies in the casein hydrolysate group, as compared with the control group, was 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29 to 0.95), and the hazard ratio adjusted for an observed difference in the duration of exposure to the study formula was 0.51 (95% CI, 0.28 to 0.91). The unadjusted hazard ratio for positivity for two or more autoantibodies was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.21 to 1.17), and the adjusted hazard ratio was 0.47 (95% CI, 0.19 to 1.07). The rate of reported adverse events was similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary intervention during infancy appears to have a long-lasting effect on markers of beta-cell autoimmunity--markers that may reflect an autoimmune process leading to type 1 diabetes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00570102.).

Education, survival and avoidable deaths in cancer patients in Finland

BACKGROUND

Relative survival after cancer in Finland is at the highest level observed in Europe and has, in general, been on a steady increase. The aim of this study is to assess whether the high survival is equally shared by different population subgroups and to estimate the possible gains that might be achieved if equity prevailed.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

The educational level and occupation before the cancer diagnosis of patients diagnosed in Finland in 1971-2005 was derived from an antecedent population census. The cancers were divided into 27 site categories. Cancer (cause)-specific 5-year survival proportions were calculated for three patient categories based on the educational level and for an occupational group of potentially health-conscious patients (physicians, nurses, teachers etc.). Proportions of avoidable deaths were derived by assuming that the patients from the two lower education categories would have the same mortality owing to cancer, as those from the highest educational category. Estimates were also made by additionally assuming that even the mortalities owing to other causes of death were all equal to those in the highest category.

RESULTS

For almost all the sites considered, survival was consistently highest for patients with the highest education and lowest for those with only basic education. The potentially health-conscious patients had an even higher survival. The differences were, in part, attributable to less favourable distributions of tumour stages in the lower education categories. In 1996-2005, 4-7% of the deaths in Finnish cancer patients could have potentially been avoided during the first 5-year period after diagnosis, if all the patients had the same cancer mortality as the patients with the highest educational background. The proportion would have also been much higher, 8-11%, if, in addition, the mortality from other causes had been the same as that in the highest educational category.

INTERPRETATION

Even in a potentially equitable society with high health care standards, marked inequalities persist in cancer survival. Earlier cancer diagnosis and the ability to cope within the health care system may be a partly relevant explanation, but personal habits and lifestyles also have a role, particularly for the cancer patients' mortality from other causes of death than cancer.

Matrix metalloproteinase-9 is elevated in serum of alcohol abusers

BACKGROUND

Moderate alcohol consumption has been shown to protect against coronary heart disease. However, excessive alcohol use has been suggested to have detrimental effects on the cardiovascular system. We examined whether there is an association between alcohol abuse and circulating levels of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), which has been linked to unstable coronary heart disease and arterial inflammation.

DESIGN

Serum MMP-9 concentrations were compared between 40 male alcoholics (mean age 42 years) with ethanol consumption > 1000 g week(-1) and 40 social drinker males with an ethanol consumption of < 200 g week(-1) (mean age 45 years).

RESULTS

The mean serum MMP-9 concentration was significantly higher in sera of alcoholics compared to control subjects (70.9 +/- 47.7 g L(-1) and 43.1 +/- 19.2 g L(-1), respectively; P = 0.001). Within the alcoholic group, MMP-9 concentration did not correlate with age, gamma glutamyl transferase, carbohydrate-deficient transferrin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase or alkaline phosphatase.

CONCLUSION

Our finding of elevated MMP-9 concentrations in sera of chronic alcohol abusers helps understand the mechanisms of cardiovascular risk among these subjects.