Type 2 diabetes mellitus in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges and opportunities

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), which was once thought to be rare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), is now well established in this region. The SSA region is undergoing a rapid but variable epidemiological transition fuelled by the pace of urbanization, with disease burden profiles shifting from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Information on the epidemiology of T2DM has increased, but wide variations in study methods, diagnostic biomarkers and criteria hamper analytical comparison, and data from high-quality studies are limited. The prevalence of T2DM is still low in some rural populations but moderate or high rates are reported in many countries/regions, with evidence for an increase in some. In addition, the proportion of undiagnosed T2DM is still high. The prevalence of T2DM is highest in African people living in urban areas, and the gradient between African people living in urban areas and people in the African diaspora is rapidly fading. However, data from longitudinal studies are lacking and there is limited information on chronic complications and the genetics of T2DM. The large unmet needs for T2DM care call for greater investment of resources into health systems to manage NCDs in SSA. Proposed health-system paradigms are being developed in some countries/regions. However, national NCD programmes need to be adequately funded and coordinated to stem the tide of T2DM and its complications.

Polygenic Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes in Africa

OBJECTIVE

Polygenic prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in continental Africans is adversely affected by the limited number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of T2D from Africa and the poor transferability of European-derived polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in diverse ethnicities. We set out to evaluate if African American, European, or multiethnic-derived PRSs would improve polygenic prediction in continental Africans.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using the PRSice software, ethnic-specific PRSs were computed with weights from the T2D GWAS multiancestry meta-analysis of 228,499 case and 1,178,783 control subjects. The South African Zulu study (n = 1,602 case and 981 control subjects) was used as the target data set. Validation and assessment of the best predictive PRS association with age at diagnosis were conducted in the Africa America Diabetes Mellitus (AADM) study (n = 2,148 case and 2,161 control subjects).

RESULTS

The discriminatory ability of the African American and multiethnic PRSs was similar. However, the African American-derived PRS was more transferable in all the countries represented in the AADM cohort and predictive of T2D in the country combined analysis compared with the European and multiethnic-derived scores. Notably, participants in the 10th decile of this PRS had a 3.63-fold greater risk (odds ratio 3.63; 95% CI 2.19-4.03; P = 2.79 × 10-17) per risk allele of developing diabetes and were diagnosed 2.6 years earlier than those in the first decile.

CONCLUSIONS

African American-derived PRS enhances polygenic prediction of T2D in continental Africans. Improved representation of non-European populations (including Africans) in GWAS promises to provide better tools for precision medicine interventions in T2D.

The power of genetic diversity in genome-wide association studies of lipids

Increased blood lipid levels are heritable risk factors of cardiovascular disease with varied prevalence worldwide owing to different dietary patterns and medication use1. Despite advances in prevention and treatment, in particular through reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels2, heart disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide3. Genome-wideassociation studies (GWAS) of blood lipid levels have led to important biological and clinical insights, as well as new drug targets, for cardiovascular disease. However, most previous GWAS4-23 have been conducted in European ancestry populations and may have missed genetic variants that contribute to lipid-level variation in other ancestry groups. These include differences in allele frequencies, effect sizes and linkage-disequilibrium patterns24. Here we conduct a multi-ancestry, genome-wide genetic discovery meta-analysis of lipid levels in approximately 1.65 million individuals, including 350,000 of non-European ancestries. We quantify the gain in studying non-European ancestries and provide evidence to support the expansion of recruitment of additional ancestries, even with relatively small sample sizes. We find that increasing diversity rather than studying additional individuals of European ancestry results in substantial improvements in fine-mapping functional variants and portability of polygenic prediction (evaluated in approximately 295,000 individuals from 7 ancestry groupings). Modest gains in the number of discovered loci and ancestry-specific variants were also achieved. As GWAS expand emphasis beyond the identification of genes and fundamental biology towards the use of genetic variants for preventive and precision medicine25, we anticipate that increased diversity of participants will lead to more accurate and equitable26 application of polygenic scores in clinical practice.

Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes May Be Underestimated in the Chinese Population: Evidence From 21.7 Million People Between 2007 and 2017

OBJECTIVE

Previous reports of the annual incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in China were conducted using retrospective hospital cases, which may not reflect the reality. This longitudinal study estimated T1D incidence in a Chinese population of 21.7 million from 2007 to 2017.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A population-based registry of T1D was performed by the Beijing Municipal Health Commission Information Center. Annual incidence and 95% CIs were calculated by age group and sex. The association of sex with T1D incidence and predicted new cases of T1D were assessed using Poisson regression models. Annual percentage change and average annual percentage of change were assessed using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 6,875 individuals who developed T1D from 2007 to 2017 in this population. T1D incidence (/100,000 persons) (95% CI) significantly increased from 2.72 (2.51, 2.93) in 2007 to 3.60 (3.38, 3.78) in 2017 (P < 0.001). The T1D onset peak was in the 10-14-year-old age group. While no significant trend was found in the 0-14- and 15-29-year-old age groups, T1D incidence markedly increased from 1.87 to 3.52 in the ≥30-year-old age group (P < 0.05). The prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis was highest in the 0-4-year-old age group. We predicted new cases of T1D will increase 1.57-fold over the next decade.

CONCLUSIONS

T1D incidence in this large Chinese population is higher than has been reported previously. From 2007 to 2017, although the incidence peak was in the 10-14-year age group, the T1D incidence increased sharply in adults but not in youth.

Serum fructosamine and glycemic status in the presence of the sickle cell mutation

AIMS

The glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) test can be unreliable in the presence of hemoglobinopathies. The co-existence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) with sickle cell anemia calls for alternative tests. Therefore, we established a reference interval for serum fructosamine and evaluated its utility as a potential glycemic biomarker that is not affected by abnormal hemoglobin.

METHODS

The accuracies of serum fructosamine in monitoring and diagnosing T2D were evaluated using the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics and other measures in 618 Nigerians with or without sickle cell trait. The estimated diagnostic cut-off for serum fructosamine was then validated in an independent multi-ethnic cohort of 634 West Africans.

RESULTS

Serum fructosamine was similar between individuals with or without sickle cell trait (median: 287 vs 275 umol/L, p = 0·11, respectively) despite statistically different HbA1c. Fructosamine was highly correlated with both HbA1c and fasting glucose independently of sickle cell trait. The areas under the curve (AUC) of serum fructosamine in identifying individuals with uncontrolled glycemia and individuals with T2D were similar and independent of sickle cell trait: 0·92 (95% confidence interval [95% CI ], 0·88-0·95 and 0.92 (95% CI, (0.89-0.95) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum fructosamine is a good alternative to HbA1c for monitoring and diagnosing T2D in the presence of sickle cell trait.

GWAS in Africans identifies novel lipids loci and demonstrates heterogenous association within Africa

Serum lipids are biomarkers of cardiometabolic disease risk, and understanding genomic factors contributing to their distribution is of interest. Studies of lipids in Africans are rare, though it is expected that such studies could identify novel loci. We conducted a GWAS of 4317 Africans enrolled from Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya. We evaluated linear mixed models of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), total cholesterol (CHOL), triglycerides (TG), and TG/HDLC. Replication was attempted in 9542 African Americans (AA). In our main analysis, we identified 28 novel associations in Africans. Of the 18 of these that could be tested in AA, three associations replicated (GPNMB-TG, ENPP1-TG, and SMARCA4-LDLC). Five additional novel loci were discovered upon meta-analysis with AA (rs138282551-TG, PGBD5-HDLC, CD80-TG/HDLC, SLC44A1-CHOL, and TLL2-CHOL). Analyses considering only those with predominantly West African ancestry (Nigeria, Ghana, and AA) yielded new insights: ORC5-LDLC and chr20:60973327-CHOL. Among our novel findings are some loci with known connections to lipids pathways. For instance, rs147706369 (TLL2) alters a regulatory motif for sterol regulatory element-binding proteins (SREBPs), a family of transcription factors that control the expression of a range of enzymes involved in cholesterol, fatty acid, and triglyceride synthesis, and rs115749422 (SMARCA4), an independent association near the known LDLR locus that is rare or absent in populations without African ancestry. These findings demonstrate the utility of conducting genomic analyses in Africans for discovering novel loci and provide some preliminary evidence for caution against treating 'African ancestry' as a monolithic category.

A UGT1A1 variant is associated with serum total bilirubin levels, which are causal for hypertension in African-ancestry individuals

Serum bilirubin is associated with several clinical outcomes, including hypertension, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and drug metabolism. Here, we describe findings from our genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of serum (TBIL) using a generalized linear mixed model in West Africans (n = 1127), with adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, T2D, significant principal components of population structure, and cryptic relatedness. Genome-wide conditional analysis and CAVIARBF were used to fine map significant loci. The causal effect of TBIL on hypertension was assessed by Mendelian randomization (MR) using the GWAS findings as instrumental variables (IVs) in African Americans (n = 3,067). The SNP rs887829 (UGT1A1) was significantly associated with TBIL levels (effect allele (T) frequency = 0.49, β (SE) = 0.59 (0.04), p = 9.13 × 10^-54). Genome-wide conditional analysis and regional fine mapping pointed to rs887829 as a possible causal variant with a posterior inclusion probability of 0.99. The T allele of rs887829 is associated with lower hepatic expression of UGT1A1. Using rs887829 as an IV, two-stage least-squares MR showed a causal effect of bilirubin on hypertension (β = -0.76, 95% CI [-1.52, -0.01], p = 0.0459). Our finding confirms that UGT1A1 influences bilirubin levels. Notably, lower TBIL is causally associated with the increased risk of hypertension.

Genetic risk scores for cardiometabolic traits in sub-Saharan African populations

BACKGROUND

There is growing support for the use of genetic risk scores (GRS) in routine clinical settings. Due to the limited diversity of current genomic discovery samples, there are concerns that the predictive power of GRS will be limited in non-European ancestry populations. GRS for cardiometabolic traits were evaluated in sub-Saharan Africans in comparison with African Americans and European Americans.

METHODS

We evaluated the predictive utility of GRS for 12 cardiometabolic traits in sub-Saharan Africans (AF; n = 5200), African Americans (AA; n = 9139) and European Americans (EUR; n = 9594). GRS were constructed as weighted sums of the number of risk alleles. Predictive utility was assessed using the additional phenotypic variance explained and the increase in discriminatory ability over traditional risk factors [age, sex and body mass index (BMI)], with adjustment for ancestry-derived principal components.

RESULTS

Across all traits, GRS showed up to a 5-fold and 20-fold greater predictive utility in EUR relative to AA and AF, respectively. Predictive utility was most consistent for lipid traits, with percentage increase in explained variation attributable to GRS ranging from 10.6% to 127.1% among EUR, 26.6% to 65.8% among AA and 2.4% to 37.5% among AF. These differences were recapitulated in the discriminatory power, whereby the predictive utility of GRS was 4-fold greater in EUR relative to AA and up to 44-fold greater in EUR relative to AF. Obesity and blood pressure traits showed a similar pattern of greater predictive utility among EUR.

CONCLUSIONS

This work demonstrates the poorer performance of GRS in AF and highlights the need to improve representation of multiple ethnic populations in genomic studies to ensure equitable clinical translation of GRS.

Trans-ethnic meta-analysis identifies new loci associated with longitudinal blood pressure traits

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of genetic loci associated with cross-sectional blood pressure (BP) traits; however, GWAS based on longitudinal BP have been underexplored. We performed ethnic-specific and trans-ethnic GWAS meta-analysis using longitudinal and cross-sectional BP data of 33,720 individuals from five cohorts in the US and one in Brazil. In addition to identifying several known loci, we identified thirteen novel loci with nine based on longitudinal and four on cross-sectional BP traits. Most of the novel loci were ethnic- or study-specific, with the majority identified in African Americans (AA). Four of these discoveries showed additional evidence of association in independent datasets, including an intergenic variant (rs4060030, p = 7.3 × 10^–9) with reported regulatory function. We observed a high correlation between the meta-analysis results for baseline and longitudinal average BP (rho = 0.48). BP trajectory results were more correlated with those of average BP (rho = 0.35) than baseline BP(rho = 0.18). Heritability estimates trended higher for longitudinal traits than for cross-sectional traits, providing evidence for different genetic architectures. Furthermore, the longitudinal data identified up to 20% more BP known associations than did cross-sectional data. Our analyses of longitudinal BP data in diverse ethnic groups identified novel BP loci associated with BP trajectory, indicating a need for further longitudinal GWAS on BP and other age-related traits.

Time-to-event modeling of hypertension reveals the nonexistence of true controls

Given a lifetime risk of ~90% by the ninth decade of life, it is unknown if there are true controls for hypertension in epidemiological and genetic studies. Here, we compared Bayesian logistic and time-to-event approaches to modeling hypertension. The median age at hypertension was approximately a decade earlier in African Americans than in European Americans or Mexican Americans. The probability of being free of hypertension at 85 years of age in African Americans was less than half that in European Americans or Mexican Americans. In all groups, baseline hazard rates increased until nearly 60 years of age and then decreased but did not reach zero. Taken together, modeling of the baseline hazard function of hypertension suggests that there are no true controls and that controls in logistic regression are cases with a late age of onset.

Uganda Genome Resource Enables Insights into Population History and Genomic Discovery in Africa

Genomic studies in African populations provide unique opportunities to understand disease etiology, human diversity, and population history. In the largest study of its kind, comprising genome-wide data from 6,400 individuals and whole-genome sequences from 1,978 individuals from rural Uganda, we find evidence of geographically correlated fine-scale population substructure. Historically, the ancestry of modern Ugandans was best represented by a mixture of ancient East African pastoralists. We demonstrate the value of the largest sequence panel from Africa to date as an imputation resource. Examining 34 cardiometabolic traits, we show systematic differences in trait heritability between European and African populations, probably reflecting the differential impact of genes and environment. In a multi-trait pan-African GWAS of up to 14,126 individuals, we identify novel loci associated with anthropometric, hematological, lipid, and glycemic traits. We find that several functionally important signals are driven by Africa-specific variants, highlighting the value of studying diverse populations across the region.

Regional Patterns and Association Between Obesity and Hypertension in Africa: Evidence From the H3Africa CHAIR Study

Hypertension and obesity are the most important modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, but their association is not well characterized in Africa. We investigated regional patterns and association of obesity with hypertension among 30 044 continental Africans. We harmonized data on hypertension (defined as previous diagnosis/use of antihypertensive drugs or blood pressure [BP]≥140/90 mmHg/BP≥130/80 mmHg) and obesity from 30 044 individuals in the Cardiovascular H3Africa Innovation Resource across 13 African countries. We analyzed data from population-based controls and the Entire Harmonized Dataset. Age-adjusted and crude proportions of hypertension were compared regionally, across sex, and between hypertension definitions. Logit generalized estimating equation was used to determine the independent association of obesity with hypertension (P value <5%). Participants were 56% women; with mean age 48.5±12.0 years. Crude proportions of hypertension (at BP≥140/90 mmHg) were 47.9% (95% CI, 47.4-48.5) for Entire Harmonized Dataset and 42.0% (41.1-42.7) for population-based controls and were significantly higher for the 130/80 mm Hg threshold at 59.3% (58.7-59.9) in population-based controls. The age-adjusted proportion of hypertension at BP≥140/90 mmHg was the highest among men (33.8% [32.1-35.6]), in western Africa (34.7% [33.3-36.2]), and in obese individuals (43.6%; 40.3-47.2). Obesity was independently associated with hypertension in population-based controls (adjusted odds ratio, 2.5 [2.3-2.7]) and odds of hypertension in obesity increased with increasing age from 2.0 (1.7-2.3) in younger age to 8.8 (7.4-10.3) in older age. Hypertension is common across multiple countries in Africa with 11.9% to 51.7% having BP≥140/90 mmHg and 39.5% to 69.4% with BP≥130/80 mmHg. Obese Africans were more than twice as likely to be hypertensive and the odds increased with increasing age.

Type 2 diabetes complications and comorbidity in Sub-Saharan Africans

BACKGROUND

Context-specific evidence of the spectrum of type 2 diabetes (T2D) burden is essential for setting priorities and designing interventions to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. However, there are currently limited data on the burden of T2D complications and comorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

T2D complications and comorbidities were assessed in 2,784 participants with diabetes enrolled from tertiary health centres and contextualised in 3,209 individuals without diabetes in Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya. T2D complications and comorbidities evaluated included cardiometabolic, ocular, neurological and renal characteristics.

FINDINGS

The most common complications/comorbidities among the T2D participants were hypertension (71%; 95% CI 69-73), hyperlipidaemia (34%; 95% CI 32-36), and obesity (27%; 95% CI 25-29). Additionally, the prevalence of cataracts was 32% (95% CI 30-35), diabetic retinopathy 15% (95% CI 13-17), impaired renal function 13% (95% CI 12-15), and erectile dysfunction (in men) 35% (95% CI 32-38). T2D population-attributable fraction for these comorbidities ranged between 6 and 64%.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of diabetes complications and comorbidity is substantial in SSA highlighting the urgent need for innovative public health strategies that prioritise promotion of healthy lifestyles for prevention and early detection of T2D. Also needed are strategies to strengthen health care system capacities to provide treatment and care for diabetes complications.

Genetic Basis of Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in Africans: Impact on Precision Medicine

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Recent advances in genomics provide opportunities for novel understanding of the biology of human traits with the goal of improving human health. Here, we review recent obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D)-related genomic studies in African populations and discuss the implications of limited genomics studies on health disparity and precision medicine.

RECENT FINDINGS

Genome-wide association studies in Africans have yielded genetic discovery that would otherwise not be possible; these include identification of novel loci associated with obesity (SEMA-4D, PRKCA, WARS2), metabolic syndrome (CA-10, CTNNA3), and T2D (AGMO, ZRANB3). ZRANB3 was recently demonstrated to influence beta cell mass and insulin response. Despite these promising results, genomic studies in African populations are still limited and thus genomics tools and approaches such as polygenic risk scores and precision medicine are likely to have limited utility in Africans with the unacceptable possibility of exacerbating prevailing health disparities. African populations provide unique opportunities for increasing our understanding of the genetic basis of cardiometabolic disorders. We highlight the need for more coordinated and sustained efforts to increase the representation of Africans in genomic studies both as participants and scientists.

HIV treatment is associated with a two-fold higher probability of raised triglycerides: Pooled Analyses in 21 023 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) regimes for HIV are associated with raised levels of circulating triglycerides (TG) in western populations. However, there are limited data on the impact of ART on cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan African (SSA) populations.

METHODS

Pooled analyses of 14 studies comprising 21 023 individuals, on whom relevant cardiometabolic risk factors (including TG), HIV and ART status were assessed between 2003 and 2014, in SSA. The association between ART and raised TG (>2.3 mmol/L) was analysed using regression models.

FINDINGS

Among 10 615 individuals, ART was associated with a two-fold higher probability of raised TG (RR 2.05, 95% CI 1.51-2.77, I2=45.2%). The associations between ART and raised blood pressure, glucose, HbA1c, and other lipids were inconsistent across studies.

INTERPRETATION

Evidence from this study confirms the association of ART with raised TG in SSA populations. Given the possible causal effect of raised TG on cardiovascular disease (CVD), the evidence highlights the need for prospective studies to clarify the impact of long term ART on CVD outcomes in SSA.

Deriving an optimal threshold of waist circumference for detecting cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Waist circumference (WC) thresholds derived from western populations continue to be used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) despite increasing evidence of ethnic variation in the association between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease and availability of data from African populations. We aimed to derive a SSA-specific optimal WC cut-point for identifying individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk.

METHODS

We used individual level cross-sectional data on 24 181 participants aged ⩾15 years from 17 studies conducted between 1990 and 2014 in eight countries in SSA. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to derive optimal WC cut-points for detecting the presence of at least two components of metabolic syndrome (MS), excluding WC.

RESULTS

The optimal WC cut-point was 81.2 cm (95% CI 78.5-83.8 cm) and 81.0 cm (95% CI 79.2-82.8 cm) for men and women, respectively, with comparable accuracy in men and women. Sensitivity was higher in women (64%, 95% CI 63-65) than in men (53%, 95% CI 51-55), and increased with the prevalence of obesity. Having WC above the derived cut-point was associated with a twofold probability of having at least two components of MS (age-adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% CI 2.4-2.9, for men and 2.2, 95% CI 2.0-2.3, for women).

CONCLUSION

The optimal WC cut-point for identifying men at increased cardiometabolic risk is lower (⩾81.2 cm) than current guidelines (⩾94.0 cm) recommend, and similar to that in women in SSA. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these cut-points based on cardiometabolic outcomes.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 31 October 2017; doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.240.

H3Africa multi-centre study of the prevalence and environmental and genetic determinants of type 2 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: study protocol

The burden and aetiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its microvascular complications may be influenced by varying behavioural and lifestyle environments as well as by genetic susceptibility. These aspects of the epidemiology of T2D have not been reliably clarified in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), highlighting the need for context-specific epidemiological studies with the statistical resolution to inform potential preventative and therapeutic strategies. Therefore, as part of the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) initiative, we designed a multi-site study comprising case collections and population-based surveys at 11 sites in eight countries across SSA. The goal is to recruit up to 6000 T2D participants and 6000 control participants. We will collect questionnaire data, biophysical measurements and biological samples for chronic disease traits, risk factors and genetic data on all study participants. Through integrating epidemiological and genomic techniques, the study provides a framework for assessing the burden, spectrum and environmental and genetic risk factors for T2D and its complications across SSA. With established mechanisms for fieldwork, data and sample collection and management, data-sharing and consent for re-approaching participants, the study will be a resource for future research studies, including longitudinal studies, prospective case ascertainment of incident disease and interventional studies.

Association of HIV and ART with cardiometabolic traits in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest burden of HIV in the world and a rising prevalence of cardiometabolic disease; however, the interrelationship between HIV, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cardiometabolic traits is not well described in SSA populations.

Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis through MEDLINE and EMBASE (up to January 2012), as well as direct author contact. Eligible studies provided summary or individual-level data on one or more of the following traits in HIV+ and HIV-, or ART+ and ART- subgroups in SSA: body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), triglycerides (TGs) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). Information was synthesized under a random-effects model and the primary outcomes were the standardized mean differences (SMD) of the specified traits between subgroups of participants.

Results Data were obtained from 49 published and 3 unpublished studies which reported on 29 755 individuals. HIV infection was associated with higher TGs [SMD, 0.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.08 to 0.44] and lower HDL (SMD, −0.59; 95% CI, −0.86 to −0.31), BMI (SMD, −0.32; 95% CI, −0.45 to −0.18), SBP (SMD, −0.40; 95% CI, −0.55 to −0.25) and DBP (SMD, −0.34; 95% CI, −0.51 to −0.17). Among HIV+ individuals, ART use was associated with higher LDL (SMD, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.72) and HDL (SMD, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.66), and lower HbA1c (SMD, −0.34; 95% CI, −0.62 to −0.06). Fully adjusted estimates from analyses of individual participant data were consistent with meta-analysis of summary estimates for most traits.

Conclusions Broadly consistent with results from populations of European descent, these results suggest differences in cardiometabolic traits between HIV-infected and uninfected individuals in SSA, which might be modified by ART use. In a region with the highest burden of HIV, it will be important to clarify these findings to reliably assess the need for monitoring and managing cardiometabolic risk in HIV-infected populations in SSA.

A general approach for haplotype phasing across the full spectrum of relatedness

Many existing cohorts contain a range of relatedness between genotyped individuals, either by design or by chance. Haplotype estimation in such cohorts is a central step in many downstream analyses. Using genotypes from six cohorts from isolated populations and two cohorts from non-isolated populations, we have investigated the performance of different phasing methods designed for nominally 'unrelated' individuals. We find that SHAPEIT2 produces much lower switch error rates in all cohorts compared to other methods, including those designed specifically for isolated populations. In particular, when large amounts of IBD sharing is present, SHAPEIT2 infers close to perfect haplotypes. Based on these results we have developed a general strategy for phasing cohorts with any level of implicit or explicit relatedness between individuals. First SHAPEIT2 is run ignoring all explicit family information. We then apply a novel HMM method (duoHMM) to combine the SHAPEIT2 haplotypes with any family information to infer the inheritance pattern of each meiosis at all sites across each chromosome. This allows the correction of switch errors, detection of recombination events and genotyping errors. We show that the method detects numbers of recombination events that align very well with expectations based on genetic maps, and that it infers far fewer spurious recombination events than Merlin. The method can also detect genotyping errors and infer recombination events in otherwise uninformative families, such as trios and duos. The detected recombination events can be used in association scans for recombination phenotypes. The method provides a simple and unified approach to haplotype estimation, that will be of interest to researchers in the fields of human, animal and plant genetics.

Sociodemographic distribution of non-communicable disease risk factors in rural Uganda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly becoming leading causes of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to high-income countries, the sociodemographic distribution, including socioeconomic inequalities, of NCDs and their risk factors is unclear in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among rural populations.

METHODS

We undertook a cross-sectional population-based survey of 7809 residents aged 13 years or older in the General Population Cohort in south-western rural Uganda. Information on behavioural, physiological and biochemical risk factors was obtained using standardized methods as recommended by the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Socioeconomic status (SES) was determined by principal component analysis including household features, ownership, and occupation and education of the head of household.

RESULTS

SES was found to be associated with NCD risk factors in this rural population. Smoking, alcohol consumption (men only) and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were more common among those of lower SES. For example, the prevalence of smoking decreased 4-fold from the lowest to the highest SES groups, from 22.0% to 5.7% for men and 2.2% to 0.4% for women, respectively. In contrast, overweight, raised blood pressure, raised HbA1c (women only) and raised cholesterol were more common among those of higher SES. For example, the prevalence of overweight increased 5-fold from 2.1% to 10.1% for men, and 2-fold from 12.0% to 23.4% for women, from the lowest to highest SES groups respectively. However, neither low physical activity nor fruit, vegetable or staples consumption was associated with SES. Furthermore, associations between NCD risk factors and SES were modified by age and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Within this rural population, NCD risk factors are common and vary both inversely and positively across the SES gradient. A better understanding of the determinants of the sociodemographic distribution of NCDs and their risk factors in rural sub-Saharan African populations will help identify populations at most risk of developing NCDs and help plan interventions to reduce their burden.

Patients' worries before starting antiretroviral therapy and their association with treatment adherence and outcomes: a prospective study in rural Uganda, 2004 - 2009

BACKGROUND

In HIV-infected persons, good adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is essential for successful treatment outcomes. Patients' worries before starting ART may affect their ART adherence and treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Between 2004 and 2009, HIV-infected individuals in a prospective cohort study in rural Uganda were assessed for ART eligibility. A counsellor explained the ART eligibility criteria, adherence and side effects, and recorded the patients' worries related to ART. Every quarter, patients who initiated ART had clinical, immunological (CD4 cell counts) and virological (viral loads) assessments, and data were collected on ART adherence using patients' self-reports and pill counts. We describe the patients' worries and examine their association with ART adherence, and immunological and virological outcomes.

RESULTS

We assessed 421 patients, 271 (64%) were females, 318 (76%) were aged 30 years and above and 315 (75%) were eligible for ART. 277 (66%) reported any worry, and the proportions were similar by sex, age group and ART eligibility status. The baseline median CD4 counts and viral loads were similar among patients with any worry and those with no worry. The commonest worries were: fear of HIV serostatus disclosure; among 69 (16%) participants, lack of food when appetite improved after starting ART; 50 (12%), concurrent use of other medications; 33 (8%), adherence to ART; 28 (7%) and problems concerning condom use; 27 (6%). After 24 months or more on ART, patients who reported any worry had made more scheduled ART refill visits than patients who reported no worry (p<0.01), but the annual CD4 cell increases were similar (p=0.12). After one year on ART, patients who reported any worry had greater virological suppression than patients who reported no worry (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the lack of significant associations of worries with unfavourable ART outcomes, physicians and counsellors should assist patients in overcoming their worries that can cause stress and discomfort. Food supplements may be desirable for some patients initiating ART.

Validation of World Health Organisation HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting initiation of antiretroviral therapy and clinical predictors of low CD4 cell count in Uganda

Introduction

The WHO clinical guidelines for HIV/AIDS are widely used in resource limited settings to represent the gold standard of CD4 counts for antiviral therapy initiation. The utility of the WHO-defined stage 1 and 2 clinical factors used in WHO HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting low CD4 cell count has not been established in Uganda. Although the WHO staging has shown low sensitivity for predicting CD4<200cells/mm³, it has not been evaluated at for CD4 cut-offs of <250cells/mm³ or <350 cells/mm³.

Objective

To validate the World Health Organisation HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting initiation of antiretroviral therapy in a low-resource setting and to determine the clinical predictors of low CD4 cell count in Uganda.

Results

Data was collected on 395 participants from the Joint Clinical Research Centre, of whom 242 (61.3%) were classified as in stages 1 and 2 and 262 (68%) were females. Participants had a mean age of 36.8 years (SD 8.5). We found a significant inverse correlation between the CD4 lymphocyte count and WHO clinical stages. The sensitivity the WHO clinical staging at CD4 cell count of 250 cells/mm³ and 350cells/mm³ was 53.5% and 49.1% respectively. Angular cheilitis, papular pruritic eruptions and recurrent upper respiratory tract infections were found to be significant predictors of low CD4 cell count among participants in WHO stage 1 and 2.

Conclusion

The WHO HIV/AIDS clinical staging guidelines have a low sensitivity and about half of the participants in stages 1 and 2 would be eligible for ART initiation if they had been tested for CD4 count. Angular cheilitis and papular pruritic eruptions and recurrent upper respiratory tract infections may be used, in addition to the WHO staging, to improve sensitivity in the interim, as access to CD4 machines increases in Uganda.