Detecting potential outliers in longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates

BACKGROUND

Outliers can influence regression model parameters and change the direction of the estimated effect, over-estimating or under-estimating the strength of the association between a response variable and an exposure of interest. Identifying visit-level outliers from longitudinal data with continuous time-dependent covariates is important when the distribution of such variable is highly skewed.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to identify potential outliers at follow-up visits using interquartile range (IQR) statistic and assess their influence on estimated Cox regression parameters.

METHODS

Study was motivated by a large TEDDY dietary longitudinal and time-to-event data with a continuous time-varying vitamin B12 intake as the exposure of interest and development of Islet Autoimmunity (IA) as the response variable. An IQR algorithm was applied to the TEDDY dataset to detect potential outliers at each visit. To assess the impact of detected outliers, data were analyzed using the extended time-dependent Cox model with robust sandwich estimator. Partial residual diagnostic plots were examined for highly influential outliers.

RESULTS

Extreme vitamin B12 observations that were cases of IA had a stronger influence on the Cox regression model than non-cases. Identified outliers changed the direction of hazard ratios, standard errors, or the strength of association with the risk of developing IA.

CONCLUSION

At the exploratory data analysis stage, the IQR algorithm can be used as a data quality control tool to identify potential outliers at the visit level, which can be further investigated.

Factors assessed in the first year of a longitudinal study predict subsequent study visit compliance: the TEDDY study

BACKGROUND

Compliance with a study protocol is central to meeting its research goals. In longitudinal research studies, data loss due to missed visits limit statistical power and introduce bias. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is a longitudinal multinational (US, Finland, Germany, and Sweden) investigation of children at risk for type 1 diabetes (T1D) that seeks to identify the environmental triggers of islet autoimmunity and T1D. The purpose of the current study was to identify sociodemographic variables and maternal characteristics assessed in the first year of TEDDY that were associated with study visit compliance in the subsequent 3 years.

METHODS

Sociodemographic variables, maternal life-style behaviors, post-partum depression, maternal reactions to the child's T1D risk, and study-related variables were collected at child-age 6 months and 15 months. Multiple linear regression was used to examine the association of these variables to study visit compliance in the subsequent 3 years.

RESULTS

Study visit compliance was highest in Sweden (p > 0.001), in children who were their mother's first child (p > 0.001), and whose mothers were older (p > 0.001) and more satisfied with the TEDDY study (p > 0.001). Father participation was also associated with better study visit compliance (p > 0.001). In contrast, children whose mothers smoked (p > 0.001), suffered from post-partum depression (p = 0.034), and were more anxious about their child's T1D risk (p = 0.002), completed fewer visits. Father's study satisfaction was also associated with study visit compliance (p = 0.029); however, it was not significant in models that included maternal study satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic variables, maternal characteristics-including study satisfaction-and fathers' participation in the first year of a longitudinal study were associated with subsequent study visit compliance in a sample of children genetically at-risk for T1D followed for 4 years. This information can inform future strategies designed to improve study visit compliance in longitudinal pediatric studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00279318, 06/09/2004.

Gastrointestinal Infections Modulate the Risk for Insulin Autoantibodies as the First-Appearing Autoantibody in the TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate gastrointestinal infection episodes (GIEs) in relation to the appearance of islet autoantibodies in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

GIEs on risk of autoantibodies against either insulin (IAA) or GAD (GADA) as the first-appearing autoantibody were assessed in a 10-year follow-up of 7,867 children. Stool virome was characterized in a nested case-control study.

RESULTS

GIE reports (odds ratio [OR] 2.17 [95% CI 1.39-3.39]) as well as Norwalk viruses found in stool (OR 5.69 [1.36-23.7]) at <1 year of age were associated with an increased IAA risk at 2-4 years of age. GIEs reported at age 1 to <2 years correlated with a lower risk of IAA up to 10 years of age (OR 0.48 [0.35-0.68]). GIE reports at any other age were associated with an increase in IAA risk (OR 2.04 for IAA when GIE was observed 12-23 months prior [1.41-2.96]). Impacts on GADA risk were limited to GIEs <6 months prior to autoantibody development in children <4 years of age (OR 2.16 [1.54-3.02]).

CONCLUSIONS

Bidirectional associations were observed. GIEs were associated with increased IAA risk when reported before 1 year of age or 12-23 months prior to IAA. Norwalk virus was identified as one possible candidate factor. GIEs reported during the 2nd year of life were associated with a decreased IAA risk.

SAI-CH-6: Development of a Short Form of the State Anxiety Inventory for Children At-Risk for Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To develop a reliable and valid short form of the State Anxiety Subscale of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children (STAI-CH) in the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

METHODS

A Development Sample of 842 10-year-old TEDDY children completed the STAI-CH State Subscale about their type 1 diabetes (T1D) risk. The best 6 items (three anxiety-present and three anxiety-absent) for use in a short form (SAI-CH-6) were identified via item-total correlations. SAI-CH-6 reliability was examined in a Validation Sample (n = 257) of children who completed the full 20-item STAI-CH State Subscale and then again in an Application Sample (n = 2,710) who completed only the SAI-CH-6. Expected associations between the children's SAI-CH-6 scores and country of residence, sex, T1D family history, accuracy of T1D risk perception, worry about getting T1D, and their parents' anxiety scores were examined.

RESULTS

The SAI-CH-6 was reliable (α = 0.81-0.87) and highly correlated with the full 20-item STAI-CH State Subscale (Development Sample: r = 0.94; Validation Sample: r = 0.92). SAI-CH-6 scores detected significant differences in state anxiety symptoms associated with T1D risk by country, T1D family history, accuracy of T1D risk perception, and worry about getting T1D and were correlated with the child's parent's anxiety.

CONCLUSION

The SAI-CH-6 appears useful for assessing children's state anxiety symptoms when burden and time limitations prohibit the use of the STAI-CH. The utility of the SAI-CH-6 in older children with and without chronic conditions needs to be assessed.

Physical Activity and the Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes in 5- to 15-Year-Old Children Followed in the TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated physical activity and its association with the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in genetically at-risk children aged 5-15 years.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

As part of the longitudinal Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, annual assessment of activity using accelerometry was conducted from age 5 years. Time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity per day and the appearance of one or several autoantibodies and progression to type 1 diabetes in three risk groups: 1) 3,869 islet autoantibody (IA)-negative children, of whom 157 became single IA positive; 2) 302 single IA-positive children, of whom 73 became multiple IA positive; and 3) 294 multiple IA-positive children, of whom 148 developed type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

No significant association was found in risk group 1 or risk group 2. A significant association was seen in risk group 3 (hazard ratio 0.920 [95% CI 0.856, 0.988] per 10-min increase; P = 0.021), particularly when glutamate decarboxylase autoantibody was the first autoantibody (hazard ratio 0.883 [95% CI 0.783, 0.996] per 10-min increase; P = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

More daily minutes spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of progression to type 1 diabetes in children aged 5-15 years who had developed multiple IAs.

Is staff consistency important to parents' satisfaction in a longitudinal study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes: the TEDDY study

BACKGROUND

Participants' study satisfaction is important for both compliance with study protocols and retention, but research on parent study satisfaction is rare. This study sought to identify factors associated with parent study satisfaction in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, a longitudinal, multinational (US, Finland, Germany, Sweden) study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes. The role of staff consistency to parent study satisfaction was a particular focus.

METHODS

Parent study satisfaction was measured by questionnaire at child-age 15 months (5579 mothers, 4942 fathers) and child-age four years (4010 mothers, 3411 fathers). Multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study variables associated with parent study satisfaction at both time points.

RESULTS

Parent study satisfaction was highest in Sweden and the US, compared to Finland. Parents who had an accurate perception of their child's type 1 diabetes risk and those who believed they can do something to prevent type 1 diabetes were more satisfied. More educated parents and those with higher depression scores had lower study satisfaction scores. After adjusting for these factors, greater study staff change frequency was associated with lower study satisfaction in European parents (mothers at child-age 15 months: - 0.30,95% Cl - 0.36, - 0.24, p < 0.001; mothers at child-age four years: -0.41, 95% Cl - 0.53, - 0.29, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age 15 months: -0.28, 95% Cl - 0.34, - 0.21, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age four years: -0.35, 95% Cl - 0.48, - 0.21, p < 0.001). Staff consistency was not associated with parent study satisfaction in the US. However, the number of staff changes was markedly higher in the US compared to Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study-related variables were all related to parent study satisfaction. Those that are potentially modifiable are of particular interest as possible targets of future efforts to improve parent study satisfaction. Three such factors were identified: parent accuracy about the child's type 1 diabetes risk, parent beliefs that something can be done to reduce the child's risk, and study staff consistency. However, staff consistency was important only for European parents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00279318 .

Parental monitoring for type 1 diabetes in genetically at-risk young children: The TEDDY study

OBJECTIVE

We examined parental diabetes monitoring behaviors in a cohort of children at increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. We hypothesized that being informed of a positive islet autoantibody (IA) would increase monitoring behaviors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study follows 8676 children with high-risk human leucocyte antigen-DQ genotypes from birth to age 15, including general population (GP) children and those with a first-degree relative (FDR) with diabetes. Data on parental monitoring behaviors were solicited yearly. Serum samples were tested for IA and parents were informed of child results. We examined parental monitoring behaviors during the first 7 years of TEDDY.

RESULTS

In IA- children, the most common monitoring behavior was participating in TEDDY study tasks; up to 49.8% and 44.2% of mothers and fathers, respectively, reported this. Among FDRs, 7%-10% reported watching for diabetes symptoms and 7%-9% reported monitoring the child's glucose, for mothers and fathers, respectively. After IA+ notification, all monitoring behaviors significantly increased in GP parents; only glucose monitoring increased in FDR parents and these behaviors continued for up to 4 years. FDR status, accurate diabetes risk perception, and anxiety were associated with glucose monitoring in IA+ and IA- cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Many parents view TEDDY participation as a way to monitor for type 1 diabetes, a benefit of enrollment in a longitudinal study with no prevention offered. IA+ notification increases short- and long-term monitoring behaviors. For IA- and IA+ children, FDR parents engage in glucose monitoring, even when not instructed to do so.

First-appearing islet autoantibodies for type 1 diabetes in young children: maternal life events during pregnancy and the child's genetic risk

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Psychological stress has long been considered a possible trigger of type 1 diabetes, although prospective studies examining the link between psychological stress or life events during pregnancy and the child's type 1 diabetes risk are rare. The objective of this study was to examine the association between life events during pregnancy and first-appearing islet autoantibodies (IA) in young children, conditioned by the child's type 1 diabetes-related genetic risk.

METHODS

The IA status of 7317 genetically at-risk The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) participants was assessed every 3 months from 3 months to 4 years, and bi-annually thereafter. Reports of major life events during pregnancy were collected at study inception when the child was 3 months of age and placed into one of six categories. Life events during pregnancy were examined for association with first-appearing insulin (IAA) (N = 222) or GAD (GADA) (N = 209) autoantibodies in the child until 6 years of age using proportional hazard models. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) by the child's HLA-DR and SNP profile was estimated.

RESULTS

Overall, 65% of mothers reported a life event during pregnancy; disease/injury (25%), serious interpersonal (28%) and job-related (25%) life events were most common. The association of life events during pregnancy differed between IAA and GADA as the first-appearing autoantibody. Serious interpersonal life events correlated with increased risk of GADA-first only in HLA-DR3 children with the BACH2-T allele (HR 2.28, p < 0.0001), an additive interaction (RERI 1.87, p = 0.0004). Job-related life events were also associated with increased risk of GADA-first among HLA-DR3/4 children (HR 1.53, p = 0.04) independent of serious interpersonal life events (HR 1.90, p = 0.002), an additive interaction (RERI 1.19, p = 0.004). Job-related life events correlated with reduced risk of IAA-first (HR 0.55, p = 0.004), particularly in children with the BTNL2-GG allele (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.31, 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Specific life events during pregnancy are differentially related to IAA vs GADA as first-appearing IA and interact with different HLA and non-HLA genetic factors, supporting the concept of different endotypes underlying type 1 diabetes. However, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain to be discovered. Life events may be markers for other yet-to-be-identified factors important to the development of first-appearing IA.

Nested case-control data analysis using weighted conditional logistic regression in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study: A novel approach

BACKGROUND

A nested case-control (NCC) design within a prospective cohort study can realize substantial benefits for biomarker studies. In this context, it is natural to consider the sample availability in the selection of controls to minimize data loss when implementing the design. However, this violates the randomness required for selection, and it leads to biased analyses. An inverse probability weighting may improve the analysis, but the current approach using weighted Cox regression fails to maintain the benefits of NCC design.

METHODS

This paper introduces weighted conditional logistic regression. We illustrate our proposed analysis using data recently investigated in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY). Considering the potential data loss, the TEDDY NCC design was moderately selective in its selection of controls. A data-driven simulation study was performed to present the bias correction when a nonrandom control selection was ignored in the analysis.

RESULTS

The TEDDY data analysis showed that the standard analysis using conditional logistic regression estimated the parameter: -0.015 (-0.023, -0.007). The biased estimate using Cox regression was -0.011 (95% confidence interval: -0.019, -0.003). Weighted Cox regression estimated -0.013 (-0.026, 0.0004). The proposed weighted conditional logistic regression estimated -0.020 (-0.033, -0.007), showing a stronger negative effect size than the one using conditional logistic regression. The simulation study also showed that the standard estimate of β ignoring the nonrandom control selection tends to be greater than the true β (ie, positive relative biases).

CONCLUSION

Weighted conditional logistic regression can enhance the analysis by offering flexibility in the selection of controls, while maintaining the matching.

Prospective virome analyses in young children at increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes

Viruses are implicated in autoimmune destruction of pancreatic islet β cells, which results in insulin deficiency and type 1 diabetes (T1D)1-4. Certain enteroviruses can infect β cells in vitro5, have been detected in the pancreatic islets of patients with T1D6 and have shown an association with T1D in meta-analyses4. However, establishing consistency in findings across studies has proven difficult. Obstacles to convincingly linking RNA viruses to islet autoimmunity may be attributed to rapid viral mutation rates, the cyclical periodicity of viruses7 and the selection of variants with altered pathogenicity and ability to spread in populations. β cells strongly express cell-surface coxsackie and adenovirus receptor (CXADR) genes, which can facilitate enterovirus infection8. Studies of human pancreata and cultured islets have shown significant variation in enteroviral virulence to β cells between serotypes and within the same serotype9,10. In this large-scale study of known eukaryotic DNA and RNA viruses in stools from children, we evaluated fecally shed viruses in relation to islet autoimmunity and T1D. This study showed that prolonged enterovirus B rather than independent, short-duration enterovirus B infections may be involved in the development of islet autoimmunity, but not T1D, in some young children. Furthermore, we found that fewer early-life human mastadenovirus C infections, as well as CXADR rs6517774, independently correlated with islet autoimmunity.

First trimester enterovirus IgM and beta cell autoantibodies in mothers to children affected by type 1 diabetes autoimmunity before 7 years of age

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune (type 1) diabetes (T1D) is a frequent chronic disease in children and adolescents globally. Gestational enterovirus (EV) infections have been associated with an increased risk for T1D in the offspring. We test the hypothesis that EV infections during the first trimester were associated with beta cell autoantibodies in mothers of children who developed islet autoantibodies before 7 years of age.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Local registries were used to identify mothers to children born 2000-2007 who developed either beta cell autoantibodies or T1D during follow up. Serum samples from the first trimester were located in the Biobank. A total of 448 index mothers were identified and compared to 891 matched control mothers. EV-IgM was determined in a capture enzyme immunoassay. Beta cell autoantibodies were analyzed in standard radio binding assays.

RESULTS

The frequency of EV-IgM in index mothers was 20% (89/448), which did not differ from the control mothers 20% (175/891) (p = 0.922). Index mothers had multiple beta cell autoantibodies more often than control mothers (p = 0.037). Beta cell autoantibodies were increased during the November-April winter months in index compared to control mothers (p = 0.022). The observed difference was possibly explained by the months of February-April (p = 0.014). Concomitant EV-IgM and beta cell autoantibodies tended to be more common among index compared to control mothers (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

EV-IgM during the first trimester may be associated with beta cell autoantibodies in mothers to children who developed either beta cell autoantibodies or T1D before 7 years of age.

Pandemrix® vaccination is not associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes in the TEDDY study children

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

During the A/H1N1 2009 (A/California/04/2009) pandemic, mass vaccination with a squalene-containing vaccine, Pandemrix®, was performed in Sweden and Finland. The vaccination was found to cause narcolepsy in children and young adults with the HLA-DQ 6.2 haplotype. The aim of this study was to investigate if exposure to Pandemrix® similarly increased the risk of islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

In The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, children are followed prospectively for the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes. In October 2009, when the mass vaccination began, 3401 children at risk for islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes were followed in Sweden and Finland. Vaccinations were recorded and autoantibodies against insulin, GAD65 and insulinoma-associated protein 2 were ascertained quarterly before the age of 4 years and semi-annually thereafter.

RESULTS

By 5 August 2010, 2413 of the 3401 (71%) children observed as at risk for an islet autoantibody or type 1 diabetes on 1 October 2009 had been vaccinated with Pandemrix®. By 31 July 2016, 232 children had at least one islet autoantibody before 10 years of age, 148 had multiple islet autoantibodies and 96 had developed type 1 diabetes. The risk of islet autoimmunity was not increased among vaccinated children. The HR (95% CI) for the appearance of at least one islet autoantibody was 0.75 (0.55, 1.03), at least two autoantibodies was 0.85 (0.57, 1.26) and type 1 diabetes was 0.67 (0.42, 1.07). In Finland, but not in Sweden, vaccinated children had a lower risk of islet autoimmunity (0.47 [0.29, 0.75]), multiple autoantibodies (0.50 [0.28, 0.90]) and type 1 diabetes (0.38 [0.20, 0.72]) compared with those who did not receive Pandemrix®. The analyses were adjusted for confounding factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Children with an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes who received the Pandemrix® vaccine during the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic had no increased risk of islet autoimmunity, multiple islet autoantibodies or type 1 diabetes. In Finland, the vaccine was associated with a reduced risk of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes.

Correction to: Respiratory infections are temporally associated with initiation of type 1 diabetes autoimmunity: the TEDDY study

The authors regret that the SNP in SH2B3 was incorrectly referred to as rs3184505 instead of rs3184504 on both mentions in this paper (Methods section and Table 1).

Gestational respiratory infections interacting with offspring HLA and CTLA-4 modifies incident β-cell autoantibodies

β-cell autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), GAD65 (GADA) and IA-2 (IA-2A) precede onset of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D). Incidence of the first appearing β-cell autoantibodies peaks at a young age and is patterned by T1D-associated genes, suggesting an early environmental influence. Here, we tested if gestational infections and interactions with child's human leukocyte antigen (HLA) and non-HLA genes affected the appearance of the first β-cell autoantibody. Singletons of mothers without diabetes (n = 7472) with T1D-associated HLA-DR-DQ genotypes were prospectively followed quarterly through the first 4 years of life, then semiannually until age 6 years, using standardized autoantibody analyses. Maternal infections during pregnancy were assessed via questionnaire 3-4.5 months post-delivery. Polymorphisms in twelve non-HLA genes associated with the first appearing β-cell autoantibodies were included in a Cox regression analysis. IAA predominated as the first appearing β-cell autoantibody in younger children (n = 226, median age at seroconversion 1.8 years) and GADA (n = 212; 3.2 years) in children aged ≥2 years. Gestational infections were not associated with the first appearing β-cell autoantibodies overall. However, gestational respiratory infections (G-RI) showed a consistent protective influence on IAA (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.45-0.91) among CTLA4-(AG, GG) children (G-RI*CTLA4 interaction, p = 0.002). The predominant associations of HLA-DR-DQ 4-8/8-4 with IAA and HLA-DR-DQ 3-2/3-2 with GADA were not observed if a G-RI was reported (G-RI*HLA-DR-DQ interaction, p = 0.03). The role of G-RI may depend on offspring HLA and CTLA-4 alleles and supports a bidirectional trigger for IAA or GADA as a first appearing β-cell autoantibody in early life.

Association Between Early-Life Antibiotic Use and the Risk of Islet or Celiac Disease Autoimmunity

Importance

Evidence is lacking regarding the consequences of antibiotic use in early life and the risk of certain autoimmune diseases.

Objective

To test the association between early-life antibiotic use and islet or celiac disease (CD) autoimmunity in genetically at-risk children prospectively followed up for type 1 diabetes (T1D) or CD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

HLA-genotyped newborns from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States were enrolled in the prospective birth cohort of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study between November 20, 2004, and July 8, 2010. The dates of analysis were November 20, 2004, to August 31, 2014. Individuals from the general population and those having a first-degree relative with T1D were enrolled if they had 1 of 9 HLA genotypes associated with a risk for T1D.

Exposures

Parental reports of the most common antibiotics (cephalosporins, penicillins, and macrolides) used between age 3 months and age 4 years were recorded prospectively.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Islet autoimmunity and CD autoimmunity were defined as being positive for islet or tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies at 2 consecutive clinic visits at least 3 months apart. Hazard ratios and 95% CIs calculated from Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between antibiotic use in early life before seroconversion and the development of autoimmunity.

Results

Participants were 8495 children (49.0% female) and 6558 children (48.7% female) enrolled in the TEDDY study who were tested for islet and tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies, respectively. Exposure to and frequency of use of any antibiotic assessed in this study in early life or before seroconversion did not influence the risk of developing islet autoimmunity or CD autoimmunity. Cumulative use of any antibiotic during the first 4 years of life was not associated with the appearance of any autoantibody (hazard ratio [HR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.95-1.01), multiple islet autoantibodies (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.95-1.03), or the transglutaminase autoantibody (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02).

Conclusions and Relevance

The use of the most prescribed antibiotics during the first 4 years of life, regardless of geographic region, was not associated with the development of autoimmunity for T1D or CD. These results suggest that a risk of islet or tissue transglutaminase autoimmunity need not influence the recommendations for clinical use of antibiotics in young children at risk for T1D or CD.

Respiratory infections are temporally associated with initiation of type 1 diabetes autoimmunity: the TEDDY study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Respiratory infections and onset of islet autoimmunity are reported to correlate positively in two small prospective studies. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is the largest prospective international cohort study on the environmental determinants of type 1 diabetes that regularly monitors both clinical infections and islet autoantibodies. The aim was to confirm the influence of reported respiratory infections and to further characterise the temporal relationship with autoantibody seroconversion.

METHODS

During the years 2004-2009, 8676 newborn babies with HLA genotypes conferring an increased risk of type 1 diabetes were enrolled at 3 months of age to participate in a 15 year follow-up. In the present study, the association between parent-reported respiratory infections and islet autoantibodies at 3 month intervals up to 4 years of age was evaluated in 7869 children. Time-dependent proportional hazard models were used to assess how the timing of respiratory infections related to persistent confirmed islet autoimmunity, defined as autoantibody positivity against insulin, GAD and/or insulinoma antigen-2, concordant at two reference laboratories on two or more consecutive visits.

RESULTS

In total, 87,327 parent-reported respiratory infectious episodes were recorded while the children were under study surveillance for islet autoimmunity, and 454 children seroconverted. The number of respiratory infections occurring in a 9 month period was associated with the subsequent risk of autoimmunity (p < 0.001). For each 1/year rate increase in infections, the hazard of islet autoimmunity increased by 5.6% (95% CI 2.5%, 8.8%). The risk association was linked primarily to infections occurring in the winter (HR 1.42 [95% CI 1.16, 1.74]; p < 0.001). The types of respiratory infection independently associated with autoimmunity were common cold, influenza-like illness, sinusitis, and laryngitis/tracheitis, with HRs (95% CI) of 1.38 (1.11, 1.71), 2.37 (1.35, 4.15), 2.63 (1.22, 5.67) and 1.76 (1.04, 2.98), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Recent respiratory infections in young children correlate with an increased risk of islet autoimmunity in the TEDDY study. Further studies to identify the potential causative viruses with pathogen-specific assays should focus especially on the 9 month time window leading to autoantibody seroconversion.

Genetic and Environmental Interactions Modify the Risk of Diabetes-Related Autoimmunity by 6 Years of Age: The TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

We tested the associations between genetic background and selected environmental exposures with respect to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Infants with HLA-DR high-risk genotypes were prospectively followed for diabetes-related autoantibodies. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) came from the Illumina ImmunoChip and environmental exposure data were by parental report. Children were followed to age 6 years.

RESULTS

Insulin autoantibodies occurred earlier than GAD antibody (GADA) and then declined, while GADA incidence rose and remained constant (significant in HLA-DR4 but not in the DR3/3 children). The presence of SNPs rs2476601 (PTPN22) and rs2292239 (ERBB3) demonstrated increased risk of both autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) only and GADA only. SNP rs689 (INS) was protective of IAA only, but not of GADA only. The rs3757247 (BACH2) SNP demonstrated increased risk of GADA only. Male sex, father or sibling as the diabetic proband, introduction of probiotics under 28 days of age, and weight at age 12 months were associated with IAA only, but only father as the diabetic proband and weight at age 12 months were associated with GADA only. Mother as the diabetic proband was not a significant risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show clear differences in the initiation of autoimmunity according to genetic factors and environmental exposures that give rise to IAA or GADA as the first appearing indication of autoimmunity.

My Child Is Islet Autoantibody Positive: Impact on Parental Anxiety

OBJECTIVE

To assess parent anxiety in response to genetic and islet autoantibody (IA) testing in children at increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes followed from birth in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Parent anxiety about TEDDY children's risk was assessed with the State Anxiety Inventory (SAI). Parents completed the SAI when the child was 3, 6, and 15 months old and annually thereafter. Children were tested for IA every 3 months for 4 years and every 6 months thereafter. Parent SAI scores of 6,799 children followed with IA testing for at least 1 and up to 6 years were examined.

RESULTS

At study inception, parents showed high levels of anxiety in response to their child's increased genetic type 1 diabetes risk; mothers were more anxious than fathers, and parents with diabetes in the family were more anxious than parents with no family history. In response to repeated IA-negative (IA-) test results, parent anxiety declined to normal levels. Anxiety increased in parents faced with an IA-positive (IA+) test result. Parents faced with two or more types of IA+ test results showed particularly high levels of anxiety (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Infant genetic screening for type 1 diabetes raises parent anxiety when the child is at increased risk, but anxiety dissipates over time in cases of repeated IA- results. IA+ results heighten parent anxiety, and parents faced with two or more types of IA+ results may experience considerable anxiety for longer periods.

Factors That Increase Risk of Celiac Disease Autoimmunity After a Gastrointestinal Infection in Early Life

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the pathogenic mechanisms of gluten immunogenicity in patients with celiac disease. We studied temporal associations between infections and the development of celiac disease autoimmunity, and examined effects of HLA alleles, rotavirus vaccination status, and infant feeding.

METHODS

We monitored 6327 children in the United States and Europe carrying HLA risk genotypes for celiac disease from 1 to 4 years of age for presence of tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (the definition of celiac disease autoimmunity), until March 31, 2015. Parental reports of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections were collected every third month from birth. We analyzed time-varying relationships among reported infections, rotavirus vaccination status, time to first introduction of gluten, breastfeeding, and risk of celiac disease autoimmunity using proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

We identified 13,881 gastrointestinal infectious episodes (GIE) and 79,816 respiratory infectious episodes. During the follow-up period, 732 of 6327 (11.6%) children developed celiac disease autoimmunity. A GIE increased the risk of celiac disease autoimmunity within the following 3 months by 33% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.59). This risk increased 2-fold among children born in winter and introduced to gluten before age 6 months (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.46-2.98), and increased 10-fold among children without HLA-DQ2 alleles and breastfed for fewer than 4 months (HR, 9.76; 95% CI, 3.87-24.8). Risk of celiac disease autoimmunity was reduced in children vaccinated against rotavirus and introduced to gluten before age 6 months (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.36-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Gastrointestinal infections increase the risk of celiac disease autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to this autoimmune disorder. The risk is modified by HLA genotype, infant gluten consumption, breastfeeding, and rotavirus vaccination, indicating complex interactions among infections, genetic factors, and diet in the etiology of celiac disease in early childhood.

Psychological Manifestations of Celiac Disease Autoimmunity in Young Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Psychological symptoms can be associated with celiac disease; however, this association has not been studied prospectively in a pediatric cohort. We examined mother report of psychological functioning in children persistently positive for tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (tTGA), defined as celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA), compared with children without CDA in a screening population of genetically at-risk children. We also investigated differences in psychological symptoms based on mothers' awareness of their child's CDA status.

METHODS

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study followed 8676 children to identify triggers of type 1 diabetes and celiac disease. Children were tested for tTGA beginning at 2 years of age. The Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist assessed child psychological functioning at 3.5 and 4.5 years of age.

RESULTS

At 3.5 years, 66 mothers unaware their child had CDA reported more child anxiety and depression, aggressive behavior, and sleep problems than 3651 mothers of children without CDA (all Ps ≤ .03). Unaware-CDA mothers also reported more child anxiety and depression, withdrawn behavior, aggressive behavior, and sleep problems than 440 mothers aware of their child's CDA status (all Ps ≤.04). At 4.5 years, there were no differences.

CONCLUSIONS

In 3.5-year-old children, CDA is associated with increased reports of child depression and anxiety, aggressive behavior, and sleep problems when mothers are unaware of their child's CDA status. Mothers' knowledge of their child's CDA status is associated with fewer reports of psychological symptoms, suggesting that awareness of the child's tTGA test results affects reporting of symptoms.

Reversion of β-Cell Autoimmunity Changes Risk of Type 1 Diabetes: TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

β-Cell autoantibodies are a feature of the preclinical phase of type 1 diabetes. Here, we asked how frequently they revert in a cohort of children at risk for type 1 diabetes and whether reversion has any effect on type 1 diabetes risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Children were up to 10 years of age and screened more than once for insulin autoantibody, GAD antibody, and insulinoma antigen-2 antibodies. Persistent autoantibody was defined as an autoantibody present on two or more consecutive visits and confirmed in two reference laboratories. Reversion was defined as two or more consecutive negative visits after persistence. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to examine how reversion modified the risk of development of multiple autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

Reversion was relatively frequent for autoantibodies to GAD65 (19%) and insulin (29%), but was largely restricted to children who had single autoantibodies (24%) and rare in children who had developed multiple autoantibodies (<1%). Most (85%) reversion of single autoantibodies occurred within 2 years of seroconversion. Reversion was associated with HLA genotype, age, and decreasing titer. Children who reverted from single autoantibodies to autoantibody negative had, from birth, a risk for type 1 diabetes of 0.14 per 100 person-years; children who never developed autoantibodies, 0.06 per 100 person-years; and, children who remained single-autoantibody positive, 1.8 per 100 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Type 1 diabetes risk remained high in children who had developed multiple β-cell autoantibodies even when individual autoantibodies reverted. We suggest that monitoring children with single autoantibodies for at least 1 year after seroconversion is beneficial for stratification of type 1 diabetes risk.

A Comparison of Rule-based Analysis with Regression Methods in Understanding the Risk Factors for Study Withdrawal in a Pediatric Study

Regression models are extensively used in many epidemiological studies to understand the linkage between specific outcomes of interest and their risk factors. However, regression models in general examine the average effects of the risk factors and ignore subgroups with different risk profiles. As a result, interventions are often geared towards the average member of the population, without consideration of the special health needs of different subgroups within the population. This paper demonstrates the value of using rule-based analysis methods that can identify subgroups with heterogeneous risk profiles in a population without imposing assumptions on the subgroups or method. The rules define the risk pattern of subsets of individuals by not only considering the interactions between the risk factors but also their ranges. We compared the rule-based analysis results with the results from a logistic regression model in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Both methods detected a similar suite of risk factors, but the rule-based analysis was superior at detecting multiple interactions between the risk factors that characterize the subgroups. A further investigation of the particular characteristics of each subgroup may detect the special health needs of the subgroup and lead to tailored interventions.

Factors associated with longitudinal food record compliance in a paediatric cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Non-compliance with food record submission can induce bias in nutritional epidemiological analysis and make it difficult to draw inference from study findings. We examined the impact of demographic, lifestyle and psychosocial factors on such non-compliance during the first 3 years of participation in a multidisciplinary prospective paediatric study.

DESIGN

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study collects a 3 d food record quarterly during the first year of life and semi-annually thereafter. High compliance with food record completion was defined as the participating families submitting one or more days of food record at every scheduled clinic visit.

SETTING

Three centres in the USA (Colorado, Georgia/Florida and Washington) and three in Europe (Finland, Germany and Sweden).

SUBJECTS

Families who finished the first 3 years of TEDDY participation (n 8096).

RESULTS

High compliance was associated with having a single child, older maternal age, higher maternal education and father responding to study questionnaires. Families showing poor compliance were more likely to be living far from the study centres, from ethnic minority groups, living in a crowded household and not attending clinic visits regularly. Postpartum depression, maternal smoking behaviour and mother working outside the home were also independently associated with poor compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings identified specific groups for targeted strategies to encourage completion of food records, thereby reducing potential bias in multidisciplinary collaborative research.

Predicting Later Study Withdrawal in Participants Active in a Longitudinal Birth Cohort Study for 1 Year: The TEDDY Study

OBJECTIVE

To identify predictors of later study withdrawal among participants active in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) for 1 year. 

METHODS

Multiple logistic regression was used to discriminate 3,042 children active in TEDDY for the first 3 years from 432 children who withdrew in Years 2 or 3. Predictor variables were tested in blocks-demographic, maternal lifestyle behaviors, stress and child illness, maternal reactions to child's increased diabetes risk, in-study behaviors-and a final best model developed. 

RESULTS

Few demographic factors predicted study withdrawal. Maternal lifestyle behaviors, accuracy of the mother's risk perception, and in-study behaviors were more important. Frequent child illnesses were associated with greater study retention. 

CONCLUSIONS

Demographic measures are insufficient predictors of later study withdrawal among those active in a study for at least 1 year; behavioral/psychological factors offer improved prediction and guidance for the development of retention strategies.

The 6 year incidence of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in genetically at-risk children: the TEDDY study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Islet autoantibodies, in addition to elevated blood glucose, define type 1 diabetes. These autoantibodies are detectable for a variable period of time before diabetes onset. Thus, the occurrence of islet autoantibodies is associated with the beginning of the disease process. The age at, and order in, which autoantibodies appear may be associated with different genetic backgrounds or environmental exposures, or both.

METHODS

Infants with HLA-DR high-risk genotypes (DR3/4, DR4/4, DR4/8 and DR3/3) were enrolled and prospectively followed with standardised autoantibody assessments quarterly throughout the first 4 years of life and then semi-annually thereafter.

RESULTS

Autoantibodies appeared in 549/8,503 (6.5%) children during 34,091 person-years of follow-up. Autoantibodies at 3 (0.1%) and 6 (0.2%) months of age were rare. Of the 549, 43.7% had islet autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) only, 37.7% had glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) only, 13.8% had both GADA and IAA only, 1.6% had insulinoma antigen-2 only and 3.1% had other combinations. The incidence of IAA only peaked within the first year of life and declined over the following 5 years, but GADA only increased until the second year and remained relatively constant. GADA only were more common than IAA only in HLA-DR3/3 children but less common in HLA-DR4/8 children.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Islet autoantibodies can occur very early in life and the order of appearance was related to HLA-DR-DQ genotype.

Prevalence of obesity was related to HLA-DQ in 2-4-year-old children at genetic risk for type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVES

Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or an accelerator to clinical onset after seroconversion. As overweight and obesity continue to rise among children, the aim of this study was to determine whether human leukocyte antigen DQ (HLA-DQ) genotypes may be related to body size among children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Repeated measures of weight and height were collected from 5969 children 2-4 years of age enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young prospective study. Overweight and obesity was determined by the International Obesity Task Force cutoff values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) of 25 and 30 kg m(-)(2) at age 18.

RESULTS

The average BMI was comparable across specific HLA genotypes at every age point. The proportion of overweight was not different by HL A, but percent obesity varied by age with a decreasing trend among DQ2/8 carriers (P for trend=0.0315). A multivariable regression model suggested DQ2/2 was associated with higher obesity risk at age 4 (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-4.80) after adjusting for the development of islet autoantibody and/or type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The HLA-DQ2/2 genotype may predispose to obesity among 2-4-year-old children with genetic risk for type 1 diabetes.

GAD autoantibody affinity in adult patients with latent autoimmune diabetes, the study participants of a GAD65 vaccination trial

OBJECTIVE

Patients with latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) express autoantibodies against the 65-kDa isoform of GAD (GADA). Intervention with recombinant human GAD65 formulated with aluminium hydroxide (GAD-alum) given twice subcutaneously to LADA patients at intervals of 4 weeks was safe and did not compromise β-cell function in a Phase II clinical trial. GADA affinity has been shown to predict progression to type 1 diabetes. Here, we asked whether GADA affinity was affected by the GAD65 antigen-specific vaccination and/or associated with β-cell function in participants of this trial.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

GADA affinity was measured in sera of 46 LADA patients obtained prior to the first week and 20 weeks after the second injection with GAD-alum or placebo using competitive binding experiments with [125I]-labeled and unlabeled human GAD65.

RESULTS

At baseline, GADA affinities ranged from 1.9 × 10(7) to 5.0 × 10(12) L/mol (median 2.8 × 10(10) L/mol) and were correlated with GADA titers (r = 0.47; P = 0.0009), fasting (r = -0.37; P = 0.01) and stimulated (r = -0.40; P = 0.006) C-peptide concentrations, and HbA1c (r = 0.39; P = 0.007). No significant changes in affinity were observed from baseline to week 24. Patients with GADA affinities in the lower first quartile (<4 × 10(9) L/mol) had better preserved fasting C-peptide concentrations at baseline than those with higher affinities (mean 1.02 vs. 0.66 nmol/L; P = 0.004) and retained higher concentrations over 30 months of follow-up (mean 1.26 vs. 0.62 nmol/L; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Intervention with GAD-alum in LADA patients had no effect on GADA affinity. Our data suggest that patients with low GADA affinity have a prolonged preservation of residual β-cell function.

Factors associated with maternal-reported actions to prevent type 1 diabetes in the first year of the TEDDY study

OBJECTIVE

Mothers of children at risk for type 1 diabetes report engaging in preventive behaviors. The purpose of this study is to further document these actions in an international, longitudinal sample and examine variables that predict whether mothers engage in these behaviors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study examined an international sample (from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S.) from the naturalistic, longitudinal The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, which tracked children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes from birth to age 15 years. Mothers of 7,613 infants aged 6 months and 6,503 infants aged 15 months completed questionnaires assessing psychosocial factors and actions intended to prevent diabetes.

RESULTS

Many mothers (29.9% at 6 months and 42.8% at 15 months) reported engaging in a behavior intended to prevent type 1 diabetes, with the largest percentages (20.9-29.2%) reporting making changes to their child's diet (e.g., reducing the consumption of sweets and carbohydrates). Factors related to engaging in preventive behaviors include older maternal age; higher maternal education; minority status; having only one child; having a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes; being from a country other than Sweden; having an accurate perception of the child's increased risk for developing diabetes; having postpartum depression, maternal anxiety, and worry about the risk of diabetes; and believing that diabetes can be prevented.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that many mothers engage in actions to prevent diabetes and highlight the importance of tracking these behaviors to ensure the validity of naturalistic observational studies.

HLA-DQB1 genotypes and islet cell autoantibodies against GAD65 and IA-2 in relation to development of diabetes post partum in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

AIMS

To study HLA-DQB1 genes and islet cell autoantibodies against glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 (GADA) and insulinoma antigen-2 (IA-2A) in relation to diabetes post partum in mothers with diagnosed gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

During 2003-2004, women undergoing a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) during pregnancy were invited to participate in the Mamma Study. Cut-off level defining GDM was a 2-h capillary blood glucose of 7.8 mmol/L. 1-2 years after delivery a 75 g OGTT was performed, GADA and IA-2A were measured and HLA-DQB1 genes analysed. Data were available for 452 mothers with previous GDM and 168 randomly selected control subjects.

RESULTS

HLA-DQB1*0602 was negatively associated with GDM (p=0.033) and with development of diabetes post partum (p=0.017), whereas high risk HLA were not associated with GDM or with diabetes. The presence of GADA post partum was positively associated with diabetes post partum (p=0.0009), but not with impaired glucose tolerance.

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers with GDM and HLA-DQB1*0602 were less likely to develop diabetes after pregnancy, and type 1 diabetes associated high risk HLA genes did not predict type 1 diabetes post partum. Additionally, GADA were positively associated with diabetes development.

Coeliac disease in children: a social epidemiological study in Sweden

AIM

Little is known on the possible existence of socioeconomic and geographical differences in early coeliac disease (CD) risk. Therefore, we investigated these aspects in children before age two.

METHODS

Linking the Swedish Medical Birth Registry to several other national registries, we identified all singletons born in Sweden from 1987 to 1993 (n = 792,401) and followed them until 2 years of age to identify cases of CD. Applying multilevel logistic regression analysis, we investigated the association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and CD in children and also whether a possible geographical variation in CD risk was explained by individual characteristics.

RESULTS

Low SEP was associated with CD in boys OR 1.37 (95% CI 1.03-1.82), but not in girls OR 0.87 (95% CI 0.68-1.12). We found a considerable geographical variation in disease risk (i.e. intra-municipality correlation ≈ 10%) that was not explained by individual characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Low SEP is associated with CD in boys but not in girls. Also, CD appears to be conditioned by geographical area of residence. While our study represents an innovative contribution to the epidemiology of CD in children, the reasons for the observed geographical and socioeconomic differences could be speculated but are still unknown.

Gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with TCF7L2 gene polymorphisms independent of HLA-DQB1*0602 genotypes and islet cell autoantibodies

AIMS

To test whether the TCF7L2 gene was associated with gestational diabetes, whether the association between TCF7L2 and gestational diabetes was independent of HLA-DQB1*0602 and islet cell autoantibodies, as well as maternal age, number of pregnancies, family history of diabetes and the HLA-DQB1 genotypes, and to test whether the distribution of HLA-DQB1 alleles was affected by country of birth.

METHODS

We genotyped the rs7903146, rs12255372 and rs7901695 single nucleotide polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene in 826 mothers with gestational diabetes and in 1185 healthy control subjects in the Diabetes Prediction in Skåne Study. The mothers were also typed for HLA-DQB1 genotypes and tested for islet cell autoantibodies against GAD65, insulinoma-associated antigen-2 and insulin.

RESULTS

The heterozygous genotypes CT, GT and TC of the rs7903146 (T is risk for Type 2 diabetes), rs12255372 (T is risk for Type 2 diabetes) and rs7901695 (C is risk for Type 2 diabetes), respectively, as well as the homozygous genotypes TT, TT and CC of the rs7903146, rs12255372 and rs7901695, respectively, were strongly associated with gestational diabetes (P < 0.0001). These associations remained statistically significant after adjusting for maternal age, number of pregnancies, family history of diabetes and HLA-DQ genotypes and were independent of the presence of islet cell autoantibodies. No interaction was observed between TCF7L2 and HLA-DQB1*0602, which was shown to be negatively associated with gestational diabetes in mothers born in Sweden (P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

The TCF7L2 was associated with susceptibility for gestational diabetes independently of the presence of HLA-DQB1*0602 and islet cell autoantibodies and other factors such as maternal age, number of pregnancies, family history of diabetes and other HLA-DQ genotypes. The HLA-DQB1*0602 was negatively associated with gestational diabetes in mothers born in Sweden.

High-titer GAD65 autoantibodies detected in adult diabetes patients using a high efficiency expression vector and cold GAD65 displacement

Adult type 2 diabetes patients with GAD65 autoantibodies (GADA) are known as latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA). It has been suggested that GADA in LADA patients preferentially bind to the N-terminal end of GAD65. Using the N-terminal end extension of ³⁵S-GAD65 generated by the pEx9 plasmid, we tested the hypothesis that GADA in LADA patients preferentially react with ³⁵S-GAD65 from the pEx9 plasmid compared to the normal length pThGAD65 plasmid. Healthy control subjects (n = 250) were compared with type 1 (n = 23), type 2 (n = 290), and unspecified (n = 57) diabetes patients. In addition, radio-binding assays for GADA with ³⁵S-GAD65 generated from both the pEx9 and pThGAD65 plasmids were used in displacement assays with an excess of recombinant human GAD65 (2 μg/mL) to correct for non-specific binding. ³⁵S-GAD65 produced by either pEx9 or pThGAD65 did not differ in binding among the healthy controls and among the type 1 diabetes patients. Among the type 2 and unspecified patients, there were 4/290 and 3/57 patients, respectively, with binding to the pEx9 but not to the pThGAD65 generated ³⁵S-GAD65. In the displacement assay, we discovered 14 patients with very high-titer GADA among the type 1 (n = 3, 12,272-29,915 U/mL), type 2 (n = 7; 12,398-334,288 U/mL), and unspecified (n = 4; 20,773-4,053,580 U/mL) patients. All samples were fully displaced following appropriate dilution. We conclude that pThGAD65 is preferred for the coupled in vitro transcription translation of ³⁵S-GAD65 and that displacement with recombinant GAD65 may detect very high-titer GADA with possible clinical relevance.

Individual and collective bodies: using measures of variance and association in contextual epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Social epidemiology investigates both individuals and their collectives. Although the limits that define the individual bodies are very apparent, the collective body's geographical or cultural limits (eg "neighbourhood") are more difficult to discern. Also, epidemiologists normally investigate causation as changes in group means. However, many variables of interest in epidemiology may cause a change in the variance of the distribution of the dependent variable. In spite of that, variance is normally considered a measure of uncertainty or a nuisance rather than a source of substantive information. This reasoning is also true in many multilevel investigations, whereas understanding the distribution of variance across levels should be fundamental. This means-centric reductionism is mostly concerned with risk factors and creates a paradoxical situation, as social medicine is not only interested in increasing the (mean) health of the population, but also in understanding and decreasing inappropriate health and health care inequalities (variance).

METHODS

Critical essay and literature review.

RESULTS

The present study promotes (a) the application of measures of variance and clustering to evaluate the boundaries one uses in defining collective levels of analysis (eg neighbourhoods), (b) the combined use of measures of variance and means-centric measures of association, and (c) the investigation of causes of health variation (variance-altering causation).

CONCLUSIONS

Both measures of variance and means-centric measures of association need to be included when performing contextual analyses. The variance approach, a new aspect of contextual analysis that cannot be interpreted in means-centric terms, allows perspectives to be expanded.

The type 1 diabetes protective HLA DQB1*0602 allele is less frequent in gestational diabetes mellitus

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We tested whether gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with HLA-DQ genotypes.

METHODS

A total of 764 mothers with non-autoimmune (GAD65, insulinoma-associated protein 2 [IA-2] and insulin autoantibody-negative) GDM were ascertained between September 2000 and August 2004 in the population-based Diabetes Prediction in Skåne (DiPiS) study. HLA-DQB1 genotypes were determined in these mothers and in 1191 randomly selected non-diabetic control mothers also negative for islet autoantibodies. The data were analysed in relation to maternal age, country of birth, number of pregnancies/siblings and pregnancy weight gain.

RESULTS

The frequency of type 1 diabetes high-risk HLA-DQ alleles (DQB1*0201, DQB1*0302) did not differ between GDM mothers and controls. In contrast, the low-risk DQB1*0602 allele was less prevalent (OR 0.64, 95% CI = 0.51-0.80, p = 0.0006) in GDM than in control mothers. The difference in DQB1*0602 frequency between GDM mothers and controls remained after multiple logistic regression analysis correcting for maternal age, country of birth, number of pregnancies/siblings and weight gain during pregnancy (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.88, p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The negative association between mothers who have non-autoimmune GDM and HLA-DQ*0602 suggest that this allele may protect not only from type 1 diabetes but also from GDM.

GAD65 vaccination: 5 years of follow-up in a randomised dose-escalating study in adult-onset autoimmune diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to ascertain whether treatment of GAD65 autoantibody (GADA)-positive diabetic patients with alum-formulated recombinant GAD65 (GAD-alum) is safe and does not compromise beta cell function.

METHODS

This Phase 2, placebo-controlled, dose-escalation clinical trial, which was randomized through a central office, was performed in 47 GADA-positive type 2 diabetic patients, who received subcutaneous injections of GAD-alum (4 [n = 9], 20 [n = 8], 100 [n = 9] or 500 [n = 8] microg) or placebo (n = 13) at weeks 1 and 4 of the trial. Participants and caregivers were blinded to group assignments. The primary outcome was safety as assessed by neurological tests, medications and beta cell function evaluated over 5 years, representing the end of the trial.

RESULTS

No severe study-related adverse events occurred during the 5 year follow-up. None of the dose groups was associated with an increased risk of starting insulin treatment compared with the placebo group. The use of oral hypoglycaemic agents did not differ between the dose groups. After 5 years, fasting C-peptide levels declined in the placebo group (-0.24; 95% CI -0.41 to -0.07 log(10) nmol/l; p = 0.01) and the 500 microg dose group (-0.37; 95% CI -0.57 to -0.17 log(10) nmol/l; p = 0.003), but not in the 4 microg (-0.10; 95% CI -0.28 to 0.07 log(10) nmol/l; p = 0.20), 20 microg (0.04; 95% CI -0.12 to 0.19 log(10) nmol/l; p = 0.58) and 100 microg (0.00; 95% CI -0.20 to -0.20 log(10) nmol/l; p = 0.98) dose groups.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The primary outcome of safety was achieved, since no severe study-related adverse events occurred.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Because the study was initiated before 1 July 2005, the protocol was not registered in a registry.

Islet cell autoantibody levels after the diagnosis of young adult diabetic patients

AIMS

The aim was to determine the course of islet cell antibodies [glutamate decarboxylase (GADA), tyrosine phosphatase-like islet antigen 2 (IA-2A) and islet cell (ICA)] after the diagnosis of the diabetic patient.

METHODS

The Diabetes Incidence Study in Sweden (DISS) attempted to prospectively enrol all newly diagnosed diabetic patients aged 15-34 years during 1992 and 1993. C-peptide and autoantibody levels were determined from venous blood samples at diagnosis and again at yearly intervals for 6 years.

RESULTS

After the first year, the odds of remaining GADA positive decreased by 9% per year [odds ratio (OR) = 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.85-0.96] while the mean GADA index remained unchanged ( = 0.8, P = 0.37). There was no change in the percentage of subjects testing IA-2A positive after the first year ( = 0.1, P = 0.75). However, the mean index decreased 0.04 per year (95% CI: 0.03-0.05)-a 7.9% decline (95% CI: 5.4-10.4%). The odds of a subject testing positive for ICA decreased by 24% per year (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.70-0.82). The mean ICA levels decreased 0.75 per year (95% CI: 0.66-0.84)-a 16.4% decline (95% CI: 14.1-18.6%). The rate of change in titres for all three autoantibodies was independent of gender, human leucocyte antigen genotype and C-peptide status.

CONCLUSIONS

GADA levels remained high while ICA levels declined. In contrast to a previous study, we found that the proportion of IA-2A subjects remaining positive did not decrease after the first year, while the average index decreased slightly.