Joint estimation of selection intensity and mutation rate under balancing selection with applications to HLA

A composite likelihood method is introduced for jointly estimating the intensity of selection and the rate of mutation, both scaled by the effective population size, when there is balancing selection at a single multi-allelic locus in an isolated population at demographic equilibrium. The performance of the method is tested using simulated data. Average estimated mutation rates and selection intensities are close to the true values but there is considerable variation about the averages. Allowing for both population growth and population subdivision does not result in qualitative differences but the estimated mutation rates and selection intensities do not in general reflect the current effective population size. The method is applied to three class I (HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-C) and two class II loci (HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQA1) in the 1000 Genomes populations. Allowing for asymmetric balancing selection has only a slight effect on the results from the symmetric model. Mutations that restore symmetry of the selection model are preferentially retained because of the tendency of natural selection to maximize average fitness. However, slight differences in selective effects result in much longer persistence time of some alleles. Trans-species polymorphism (TSP), which is characteristic of major-histocompatibility loci in vertebrates, is more likely when there are small differences in allelic fitness than when complete symmetry is assumed. Therefore, variation in allelic fitness expands the range of parameter values consistent with observations of TSP.

Estimation of coalescence probabilities and population divergence times from SNP data

We present a method called the G(A|B) method for estimating coalescence probabilities within population lineages from genome sequences when one individual is sampled from each population. Population divergence times can be estimated from these coalescence probabilities if additional assumptions about the history of population sizes are made. Our method is based on a method presented by Rasmussen et al. (2014) to test whether an archaic genome is from a population directly ancestral to a present-day population. The G(A|B) method does not require distinguishing ancestral from derived alleles or assumptions about demographic history before population divergence. We discuss the relationship of our method to two similar methods, one introduced by Green et al. (2010) and called the F(A|B) method and the other introduced by Schlebusch et al. (2017) and called the TT method. When our method is applied to individuals from three or more populations, it provides a test of whether the population history is treelike because coalescence probabilities are additive on a tree. We illustrate the use of our method by applying it to three high-coverage archaic genomes, two Neanderthals (Vindija and Altai) and a Denisovan.

Transcontinental dispersal of Anopheles gambiae occurred from West African origin via serial founder events

The mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.s. is distributed across most of sub-Saharan Africa and is of major scientific and public health interest for being an African malaria vector. Here we present population genomic analyses of 111 specimens sampled from west to east Africa, including the first whole genome sequences from oceanic islands, the Comoros. Genetic distances between populations of A. gambiae are discordant with geographic distances but are consistent with a stepwise migration scenario in which the species increases its range from west to east Africa through consecutive founder events over the last ~200,000 years. Geological barriers like the Congo River basin and the East African rift seem to play an important role in shaping this process. Moreover, we find a high degree of genetic isolation of populations on the Comoros, confirming the potential of these islands as candidate sites for potential field trials of genetically engineered mosquitoes for malaria control.

Genome-wide divergence among invasive populations of Aedes aegypti in California

BACKGROUND

In the summer of 2013, Aedes aegypti Linnaeus was first detected in three cities in central California (Clovis, Madera and Menlo Park). It has now been detected in multiple locations in central and southern CA as far south as San Diego and Imperial Counties. A number of published reports suggest that CA populations have been established from multiple independent introductions.

RESULTS

Here we report the first population genomics analyses of Ae. aegypti based on individual, field collected whole genome sequences. We analyzed 46 Ae. aegypti genomes to establish genetic relationships among populations from sites in California, Florida and South Africa. Based on 4.65 million high quality biallelic SNPs, we identified 3 major genetic clusters within California; one that includes all sample sites in the southern part of the state (South of Tehachapi mountain range) plus the town of Exeter in central California and two additional clusters in central California.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of concordance between mitochondrial and nuclear genealogies suggests that the three founding populations were polymorphic for two main mitochondrial haplotypes prior to being introduced to California. One of these has been lost in the Clovis populations, possibly by a founder effect. Genome-wide comparisons indicate extensive differentiation between genetic clusters. Our observations support recent introductions of Ae. aegypti into California from multiple, genetically diverged source populations. Our data reveal signs of hybridization among diverged populations within CA. Genetic markers identified in this study will be of great value in pursuing classical population genetic studies which require larger sample sizes.

Partial genomic survival of cave bears in living brown bears

Although many large mammal species went extinct at the end of the Pleistocene epoch, their DNA may persist due to past episodes of interspecies admixture. However, direct empirical evidence of the persistence of ancient alleles remains scarce. Here, we present multifold coverage genomic data from four Late Pleistocene cave bears (Ursus spelaeus complex) and show that cave bears hybridized with brown bears (Ursus arctos) during the Pleistocene. We develop an approach to assess both the directionality and relative timing of gene flow. We find that segments of cave bear DNA still persist in the genomes of living brown bears, with cave bears contributing 0.9 to 2.4% of the genomes of all brown bears investigated. Our results show that even though extinction is typically considered as absolute, following admixture, fragments of the gene pool of extinct species can survive for tens of thousands of years in the genomes of extant recipient species.

Reconstructing the genetic history of late Neanderthals

Although it is known that Neandertals contributed DNA to modern humans1,2, not much is known about the genetic diversity of Neandertals or the relationship between late Neandertal populations at the time when their last interactions with early modern humans occurred and before they eventually disappeared. Our ability to retrieve DNA from a larger number of Neandertal individuals has been limited by poor preservation of endogenous DNA3 and large amounts of microbial and present-day human DNA that contaminate Neandertal skeletal remains3–5. Here we use hypochlorite treatment6 of as little as 9 mg of bone or tooth powder to generate between 1- and 2.7-fold genomic coverage of five 39,000- to 47,000-year-old Neandertals (i.e. late Neandertals), thereby doubling the number of Neandertals for which genome sequences are available. Genetic similarity among late Neandertals is well predicted by their geographical location, and comparison to the genome of an older Neandertal from the Caucasus2,7 indicates that a population turnover is likely to have occurred, either in the Caucasus or throughout Europe, towards the end of Neandertal history. We find that the bulk of Neandertal gene flow into early modern humans originated from one or more source populations that diverged from the Neandertals studied here at least 70,000 years ago, but after they split from a previously sequenced Neandertal from Siberia2 ~150,000 years ago. Although four of these Neandertals post-date the putative arrival of early modern humans into Europe, we do not detect any recent gene flow from early modern humans in their ancestry.

A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Vindija Cave in Croatia

To date, the only Neandertal genome that has been sequenced to high quality is from an individual found in Southern Siberia. We sequenced the genome of a female Neandertal from ~50,000 years ago from Vindija Cave, Croatia, to ~30-fold genomic coverage. She carried 1.6 differences per 10,000 base pairs between the two copies of her genome, fewer than present-day humans, suggesting that Neandertal populations were of small size. Our analyses indicate that she was more closely related to the Neandertals that mixed with the ancestors of present-day humans living outside of sub-Saharan Africa than the previously sequenced Neandertal from Siberia, allowing 10 to 20% more Neandertal DNA to be identified in present-day humans, including variants involved in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, schizophrenia, and other diseases.

Determination of genetic relatedness from low-coverage human genome sequences using pedigree simulations

We develop and evaluate methods for inferring relatedness among individuals from low-coverage DNA sequences of their genomes, with particular emphasis on sequences obtained from fossil remains. We suggest the major factors complicating the determination of relatedness among ancient individuals are sequencing depth, the number of overlapping sites, the sequencing error rate and the presence of contamination from present-day genetic sources. We develop a theoretical model that facilitates the exploration of these factors and their relative effects, via measurement of pairwise genetic distances, without calling genotypes, and determine the power to infer relatedness under various scenarios of varying sequencing depth, present-day contamination and sequencing error. The model is validated by a simulation study as well as the analysis of aligned sequences from present-day human genomes. We then apply the method to the recently published genome sequences of ancient Europeans, developing a statistical treatment to determine confidence in assigned relatedness that is, in some cases, more precise than previously reported. As the majority of ancient specimens are from animals, this method would be applicable to investigate kinship in nonhuman remains. The developed software grups (Genetic Relatedness Using Pedigree Simulations) is implemented in Python and freely available.

NULL MODELS FOR THE NUMBER OF EVOLUTIONARY STEPS IN A CHARACTER ON A PHYLOGENETIC TREE

Random trees and random characters can be used in null models for testing phylogenetic hypothesis. We consider three interpretations of random trees: first, that trees are selected from the set of all possible trees with equal probability; second, that trees are formed by random speciation or coalescence (equivalent); and third, that trees are formed by a series of random partitions of the taxa. We consider two interpretations of random characters: first, that the number of taxa with each state is held constant, but the states are randomly reshuffled among the taxa; and second, that the probability each taxon is assigned a particular state is constant from one taxon to the next. Under null models representing various combinations of randomizations of trees and characters, exact recursion equations are given to calculate the probability distribution of the number of character state changes required by a phylogenetic tree. Possible applications of these probability distributions are discussed. They can be used, for example, to test for a panmictic population structure within a species or to test phylogenetic inertia in a character's evolution. Whether and how a null model incorporates tree randomness makes little difference to the probability distribution in many but not all circumstances. The null model's sense of character randomness appears more critical. The difficult issue of choosing a null model is discussed.

SEARCHING FOR EVOLUTIONARY PATTERNS IN THE SHAPE OF A PHYLOGENETIC TREE

If all species in a clade are equally likely to speciate or become extinct, then highly symmetric and highly asymmetric phylogenetic trees are unlikely to result. Variation between species in speciation and extinction rates can cause excessive asymmetry. We developed six non-parametric statistical tests that test for nonrandom patterns of branching in any bifurcating tree. The tests are demonstrated by applying them to two published phylogenies for genera of beetles. Comparison of the power of the six statistics under a simple model of biased speciation suggests which of them may be most useful for detecting nonrandom tree shapes.

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF POPULATION DIVERGENCE TIMES AND POPULATION PHYLOGENY IN MODELS WITHOUT MUTATION

In this paper we present a method for estimating population divergence times by maximum likelihood in models without mutation. The maximum-likelihood estimator is compared to a commonly applied estimator based on Wright's F_ST statistic. Simulations suggest that the maximum-likelihood estimator is less biased and has a lower variance than the F_ST -based estimator. The maximum-likelihood estimator provides a statistical framework for the analysis of population history given genetic data. We demonstrate how maximum-likelihood estimates of the branching pattern of divergence of multiple populations may be obtained. We also describe how the method may be applied to test hypotheses such as whether populations have maintained equal population sizes. We illustrate the method by applying it to two previously published sets of human restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) data.

Distinguishing recent admixture from ancestral population structure

We develop and test two methods for distinguishing between recent admixture and ancestral population structure as explanations for greater similarity of one of two populations to an outgroup population. This problem arose when Neanderthals were found to be slightly more similar to nonAfrican than to African populations. The excess similarity is consistent with both recent admixture from Neanderthals into the ancestors of nonAfricans and subdivision in the ancestral population. Although later studies showed that there had been recent admixture, distinguishing between these two classes of models will be important in other situations, particularly when high-coverage genomes cannot be obtained for all populations. One of our two methods is based on the properties of the doubly conditioned frequency spectrum combined with the unconditional frequency spectrum. This method does not require a linkage map and can be used when there is relatively low coverage. The second method uses the extent of linkage disequilibrium among closely linked markers.

Joint Estimation of Contamination, Error and Demography for Nuclear DNA from Ancient Humans

When sequencing an ancient DNA sample from a hominin fossil, DNA from present-day humans involved in excavation and extraction will be sequenced along with the endogenous material. This type of contamination is problematic for downstream analyses as it will introduce a bias towards the population of the contaminating individual(s). Quantifying the extent of contamination is a crucial step as it allows researchers to account for possible biases that may arise in downstream genetic analyses. Here, we present an MCMC algorithm to co-estimate the contamination rate, sequencing error rate and demographic parameters—including drift times and admixture rates—for an ancient nuclear genome obtained from human remains, when the putative contaminating DNA comes from present-day humans. We assume we have a large panel representing the putative contaminant population (e.g. European, East Asian or African). The method is implemented in a C++ program called ‘Demographic Inference with Contamination and Error’ (DICE). We applied it to simulations and genome data from ancient Neanderthals and modern humans. With reasonable levels of genome sequence coverage (>3X), we find we can recover accurate estimates of all these parameters, even when the contamination rate is as high as 50%.

When extracting and sequencing ancient DNA from human remains, a recurrent problem is the presence of DNA from the paleontologists, archaeologists or geneticists that may have handled the fossil. If a DNA library is highly contaminated, this will introduce biases in downstream analyses, so it is important to determine the amount of extraneous DNA. Different methods exist for this purpose, but few are applicable to the nuclear genome, and none of them can extract reliable genomic information from highly contaminated samples. Thus, samples with high rates of contamination are usually discarded. Here, we present a method to jointly estimate contamination and error rates, along with demographic parameters, like drift times and admixture rates. Our method can serve to uncover important details about the evolutionary history of archaic and early modern humans from ancient DNA samples, even if those samples are highly contaminated.

Isolation-by-distance-and-time in a stepping-stone model

With the great advances in ancient DNA extraction, genetic data are now obtained from geographically separated individuals from both present and past. However, population genetics theory about the joint effect of space and time has not been thoroughly studied. Based on the classical stepping-stone model, we develop the theory of Isolation by distance and time. We derive the correlation of allele frequencies between demes in the case where ancient samples are present, and investigate the impact of edge effects with forward-in-time simulations. We also derive results about coalescent times in circular and toroidal models. As one of the most common ways to investigate population structure is principal components analysis (PCA), we evaluate the impact of our theory on PCA plots. Our results demonstrate that time between samples is an important factor. Ancient samples tend to be drawn to the center of a PCA plot.

Evolutionary Genomics and Conservation of the Endangered Przewalski's Horse

Przewalski's horses (PHs, Equus ferus ssp. przewalskii) were discovered in the Asian steppes in the 1870s and represent the last remaining true wild horses. PHs became extinct in the wild in the 1960s but survived in captivity, thanks to major conservation efforts. The current population is still endangered, with just 2,109 individuals, one-quarter of which are in Chinese and Mongolian reintroduction reserves [1]. These horses descend from a founding population of 12 wild-caught PHs and possibly up to four domesticated individuals [2-4]. With a stocky build, an erect mane, and stripped and short legs, they are phenotypically and behaviorally distinct from domesticated horses (DHs, Equus caballus). Here, we sequenced the complete genomes of 11 PHs, representing all founding lineages, and five historical specimens dated to 1878-1929 CE, including the Holotype. These were compared to the hitherto-most-extensive genome dataset characterized for horses, comprising 21 new genomes. We found that loci showing the most genetic differentiation with DHs were enriched in genes involved in metabolism, cardiac disorders, muscle contraction, reproduction, behavior, and signaling pathways. We also show that DH and PH populations split ∼45,000 years ago and have remained connected by gene-flow thereafter. Finally, we monitor the genomic impact of ∼110 years of captivity, revealing reduced heterozygosity, increased inbreeding, and variable introgression of domestic alleles, ranging from non-detectable to as much as 31.1%. This, together with the identification of ancestry informative markers and corrections to the International Studbook, establishes a framework for evaluating the persistence of genetic variation in future reintroduced populations.

The effective founder effect in a spatially expanding population

The gradual loss of diversity and the establishment of clines in allele frequencies associated with range expansions are patterns observed in many species, including humans. These patterns can result from a series of founder events occurring as populations colonize previously unoccupied areas. We develop a model of an expanding population and, using a branching process approximation, show that spatial gradients reflect different amounts of genetic drift experienced by different subpopulations. We then use this model to measure the net average strength of the founder effect, and we demonstrate that the predictions from the branching process model fit simulation results well. We further show that estimates of the effective founder size are robust to potential confounding factors such as migration between subpopulations. We apply our method to data from Arabidopsis thaliana. We find that the average founder effect is approximately three times larger in the Americas than in Europe, possibly indicating that a more recent, rapid expansion occurred.

A hidden Markov model for investigating recent positive selection through haplotype structure

Recent positive selection can increase the frequency of an advantageous mutant rapidly enough that a relatively long ancestral haplotype will be remained intact around it. We present a hidden Markov model (HMM) to identify such haplotype structures. With HMM identified haplotype structures, a population genetic model for the extent of ancestral haplotypes is then adopted for parameter inference of the selection intensity and the allele age. Simulations show that this method can detect selection under a wide range of conditions and has higher power than the existing frequency spectrum-based method. In addition, it provides good estimate of the selection coefficients and allele ages for strong selection. The method analyzes large data sets in a reasonable amount of running time. This method is applied to HapMap III data for a genome scan, and identifies a list of candidate regions putatively under recent positive selection. It is also applied to several genes known to be under recent positive selection, including the LCT, KITLG and TYRP1 genes in Northern Europeans, and OCA2 in East Asians, to estimate their allele ages and selection coefficients.

Genome sequencing reveals fine scale diversification and reticulation history during speciation in Sus

Background

Elucidating the process of speciation requires an in-depth understanding of the evolutionary history of the species in question. Studies that rely upon a limited number of genetic loci do not always reveal actual evolutionary history, and often confuse inferences related to phylogeny and speciation. Whole-genome data, however, can overcome this issue by providing a nearly unbiased window into the patterns and processes of speciation. In order to reveal the complexity of the speciation process, we sequenced and analyzed the genomes of 10 wild pigs, representing morphologically or geographically well-defined species and subspecies of the genus Sus from insular and mainland Southeast Asia, and one African common warthog.

Results

Our data highlight the importance of past cyclical climatic fluctuations in facilitating the dispersal and isolation of populations, thus leading to the diversification of suids in one of the most species-rich regions of the world. Moreover, admixture analyses revealed extensive, intra- and inter-specific gene-flow that explains previous conflicting results obtained from a limited number of loci. We show that these multiple episodes of gene-flow resulted from both natural and human-mediated dispersal.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate the importance of past climatic fluctuations and human mediated translocations in driving and complicating the process of speciation in island Southeast Asia. This case study demonstrates that genomics is a powerful tool to decipher the evolutionary history of a genus, and reveals the complexity of the process of speciation.

Genome sequence of a 45,000-year-old modern human from western Siberia

We present the high-quality genome sequence of a ∼45,000-year-old modern human male from Siberia. This individual derives from a population that lived before-or simultaneously with-the separation of the populations in western and eastern Eurasia and carries a similar amount of Neanderthal ancestry as present-day Eurasians. However, the genomic segments of Neanderthal ancestry are substantially longer than those observed in present-day individuals, indicating that Neanderthal gene flow into the ancestors of this individual occurred 7,000-13,000 years before he lived. We estimate an autosomal mutation rate of 0.4 × 10(-9) to 0.6 × 10(-9) per site per year, a Y chromosomal mutation rate of 0.7 × 10(-9) to 0.9 × 10(-9) per site per year based on the additional substitutions that have occurred in present-day non-Africans compared to this genome, and a mitochondrial mutation rate of 1.8 × 10(-8) to 3.2 × 10(-8) per site per year based on the age of the bone.

New insights into the history of the C-14010 lactase persistence variant in Eastern and Southern Africa

Lactase persistence (LP), the ability to digest lactose into adulthood, is strongly associated with the cultural traits of pastoralism and milk-drinking among human populations, and several different genetic variants are known that confer LP. Recent studies of LP variants in Southern African populations, with a focus on Khoisan-speaking groups, found high frequencies of an LP variant (the C-14010 allele) that also occurs in Eastern Africa, and concluded that the C-14010 allele was brought to Southern Africa via a migration of pastoralists from Eastern Africa. However, this conclusion was based on indirect evidence; to date no study has jointly analyzed data on the C-14010 allele from both Southern African Khoisan-speaking groups and Eastern Africa. Here, we combine and analyze published data on the C-14010 allele in Southern and Eastern African populations, consisting of haplotypes with the C-14010 allele and four closely-linked short tandem repeat loci. Our results provide direct evidence for the previously-hypothesized Eastern African origin of the C-14010 allele in Southern African Khoisan-speaking groups. In addition, we find evidence for a separate introduction of the C-14010 allele into the Bantu-speaking Xhosa. The estimated selection intensity on the C-14010 allele in Eastern Africa is lower than that in Southern Africa, which suggests that in Eastern Africa the dietary changes conferring the fitness advantage associated with LP occurred some time after the origin of the C-14010 allele. Conversely, in Southern Africa the fitness advantage was present when the allele was introduced, as would be expected if pastoralism was introduced concomitantly.

Ancient human genomes suggest three ancestral populations for present-day Europeans

We sequenced the genomes of a ~7,000 year old farmer from Germany and eight ~8,000 year old hunter-gatherers from Luxembourg and Sweden. We analyzed these and other ancient genomes^1–4 with 2,345 contemporary humans to show that most present Europeans derive from at least three highly differentiated populations: West European Hunter-Gatherers (WHG), who contributed ancestry to all Europeans but not to Near Easterners; Ancient North Eurasians (ANE) related to Upper Paleolithic Siberians³, who contributed to both Europeans and Near Easterners; and Early European Farmers (EEF), who were mainly of Near Eastern origin but also harbored WHG-related ancestry. We model these populations’ deep relationships and show that EEF had ~44% ancestry from a “Basal Eurasian” population that split prior to the diversification of other non-African lineages.

A test for ancient selective sweeps and an application to candidate sites in modern humans

We introduce a new method to detect ancient selective sweeps centered on a candidate site. We explored different patterns produced by sweeps around a fixed beneficial mutation, and found that a particularly informative statistic measures the consistency between majority haplotypes near the mutation and genotypic data from a closely related population. We incorporated this statistic into an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method that tests for sweeps at a candidate site. We applied this method to simulated data and show that it has some power to detect sweeps that occurred more than 10,000 generations in the past. We also applied it to 1,000 Genomes and Complete Genomics data combined with high-coverage Denisovan and Neanderthal genomes to test for sweeps in modern humans since the separation from the Neanderthal–Denisovan ancestor. We tested sites at which humans are fixed for the derived (i.e., nonchimpanzee allele) whereas the Neanderthal and Denisovan genomes are homozygous for the ancestral allele. We observe only weak differences in statistics indicative of selection between functional categories. When we compare patterns of scaled diversity or use our ABC approach, we fail to find a significant difference in signals of classic selective sweeps between regions surrounding nonsynonymous and synonymous changes, but we detect a slight enrichment for reduced scaled diversity around splice site changes. We also present a list of candidate sites that show high probability of having undergone a classic sweep in the modern human lineage since the split from Neanderthals and Denisovans.

The complete genome sequence of a Neanderthal from the Altai Mountains

We present a high-quality genome sequence of a Neanderthal woman from Siberia. We show that her parents were related at the level of half-siblings and that mating among close relatives was common among her recent ancestors. We also sequenced the genome of a Neanderthal from the Caucasus to low coverage. An analysis of the relationships and population history of available archaic genomes and 25 present-day human genomes shows that several gene flow events occurred among Neanderthals, Denisovans and early modern humans, possibly including gene flow into Denisovans from an unknown archaic group. Thus, interbreeding, albeit of low magnitude, occurred among many hominin groups in the Late Pleistocene. In addition, the high-quality Neanderthal genome allows us to establish a definitive list of substitutions that became fixed in modern humans after their separation from the ancestors of Neanderthals and Denisovans.

Detecting range expansions from genetic data

We propose a method that uses genetic data to test for the occurrence of a recent range expansion and to infer the location of the origin of the expansion. We introduce a statistic ψ (the directionality index) that detects asymmetries in the 2D allele frequency spectrum of pairs of population. These asymmetries are caused by the series of founder events that happen during an expansion and they arise because low frequency alleles tend to be lost during founder events, thus creating clines in the frequencies of surviving low-frequency alleles. Using simulations, we show that ψ is more powerful for detecting range expansions than both FST and clines in heterozygosity. We also show how we can adapt our approach to more complicated scenarios such as expansions with multiple origins or barriers to migration and we illustrate the utility of ψ by applying it to a data set from modern humans.

A method for estimating the effective number of loci affecting a quantitative character

A likelihood method is introduced that jointly estimates the number of loci and the additive effect of alleles that account for the genetic variance of a normally distributed quantitative character in a randomly mating population. The method assumes that measurements of the character are available from one or both parents and an arbitrary number of full siblings. The method uses the fact, first recognized by Karl Pearson in 1904, that the variance of a character among offspring depends on both the parental phenotypes and on the number of loci. Simulations show that the method performs well provided that data from a sufficient number of families (on the order of thousands) are available. This method assumes that the loci are in Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium but does not assume anything about the linkage relationships. It performs equally well if all loci are on the same non-recombining chromosome provided they are in linkage equilibrium. The method can be adapted to take account of loci already identified as being associated with the character of interest. In that case, the method estimates the number of loci not already known to affect the character. The method applied to measurements of crown-rump length in 281 family trios in a captive colony of African green monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiopus sabaeus) estimates the number of loci to be 112 and the additive effect to be 0.26 cm. A parametric bootstrap analysis shows that a rough confidence interval has a lower bound of 14 loci.

The influence of relatives on the efficiency and error rate of familial searching

We investigate the consequences of adopting the criteria used by the state of California, as described by Myers et al. (2011), for conducting familial searches. We carried out a simulation study of randomly generated profiles of related and unrelated individuals with 13-locus CODIS genotypes and YFiler® Y-chromosome haplotypes, on which the Myers protocol for relative identification was carried out. For Y-chromosome sharing first degree relatives, the Myers protocol has a high probability (80~99%) of identifying their relationship. For unrelated individuals, there is a low probability that an unrelated person in the database will be identified as a first-degree relative. For more distant Y-haplotype sharing relatives (half-siblings, first cousins, half-first cousins or second cousins) there is a substantial probability that the more distant relative will be incorrectly identified as a first-degree relative. For example, there is a 3~18% probability that a first cousin will be identified as a full sibling, with the probability depending on the population background. Although the California familial search policy is likely to identify a first degree relative if his profile is in the database, and it poses little risk of falsely identifying an unrelated individual in a database as a first-degree relative, there is a substantial risk of falsely identifying a more distant Y-haplotype sharing relative in the database as a first-degree relative, with the consequence that their immediate family may become the target for further investigation. This risk falls disproportionately on those ethnic groups that are currently overrepresented in state and federal databases.

A sequence-based approach demonstrates that balancing selection in classical human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loci is asymmetric

Balancing selection has maintained human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele diversity, but it is unclear whether this selection is symmetric (all heterozygotes are comparable and all homozygotes are comparable in terms of fitness) or asymmetric (distinct heterozygote genotypes display greater fitness than others). We tested the hypothesis that HLA is under asymmetric balancing selection in populations by estimating allelic branch lengths from genetic sequence data encoding peptide-binding domains. Significant deviations indicated changes in the ratio of terminal to internal branch lengths. Such deviations could arise even if no individual alleles present a strikingly altered branch length (e.g. if there is an overall distortion, with all or many terminal branches being longer than expected). DQ and DP loci were also analyzed as haplotypes. Using allele frequencies for 419 distinct populations in 10 geographical regions, we examined population differentiation in alleles within and between regions, and the relationship between allelic branch length and frequency. The strongest evidence for asymmetrical balancing selection was observed for HLA-DRB1, HLA-B and HLA-DPA1, with significant deviation (P ≤ 1.1 × 10(-4)) in about half of the populations. There were significant results at all loci except HLA-DQB1/DQA1. We observed moderate genetic variation within and between geographic regions, similar to the rest of the genome. Branch length was not correlated with allele frequency. In conclusion, sequence data suggest that balancing selection in HLA is asymmetric (some heterozygotes enjoy greater fitness than others). Because HLA polymorphism is crucial for pathogen resistance, this may manifest as a frequency-dependent selection with fluctuation in the fitness of specific heterozygotes over time.

Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection

Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of natural selection is one of the most widely cited theories in evolutionary biology. Yet it has been argued that the standard interpretation of the theorem is very different from what Fisher meant to say. What Fisher really meant can be illustrated by looking in a new way at a recent model for the evolution of clutch size. Why Fisher was misunderstood depends, in part, on the contrasting views of evolution promoted by Fisher and Wright.

Paleopopulation genetics

Paleopopulation genetics is a new field that focuses on the population genetics of extinct groups and ancestral populations (i.e., populations ancestral to extant groups). With recent advances in DNA sequencing technologies, we now have unprecedented ability to directly assay genetic variation from fossils. This allows us to address issues, such as past population structure, changes in population size, and evolutionary relationships between taxa, at a much greater resolution than can traditional population genetics studies. In this review, we discuss recent developments in this emerging field as well as prospects for the future.

A high-coverage genome sequence from an archaic Denisovan individual

We present a DNA library preparation method that has allowed us to reconstruct a high-coverage (30×) genome sequence of a Denisovan, an extinct relative of Neandertals. The quality of this genome allows a direct estimation of Denisovan heterozygosity indicating that genetic diversity in these archaic hominins was extremely low. It also allows tentative dating of the specimen on the basis of "missing evolution" in its genome, detailed measurements of Denisovan and Neandertal admixture into present-day human populations, and the generation of a near-complete catalog of genetic changes that swept to high frequency in modern humans since their divergence from Denisovans.

Serial founder effects during range expansion: a spatial analog of genetic drift

Range expansions cause a series of founder events. We show that, in a one-dimensional habitat, these founder events are the spatial analog of genetic drift in a randomly mating population. The spatial series of allele frequencies created by successive founder events is equivalent to the time series of allele frequencies in a population of effective size ke, the effective number of founders. We derive an expression for ke in a discrete-population model that allows for local population growth and migration among established populations. If there is selection, the net effect is determined approximately by the product of the selection coefficients and the number of generations between successive founding events. We use the model of a single population to compute analytically several quantities for an allele present in the source population: (i) the probability that it survives the series of colonization events, (ii) the probability that it reaches a specified threshold frequency in the last population, and (iii) the mean and variance of the frequencies in each population. We show that the analytic theory provides a good approximation to simulation results. A consequence of our approximation is that the average heterozygosity of neutral alleles decreases by a factor of 1-1/(2ke) in each new population. Therefore, the population genetic consequences of surfing can be predicted approximately by the effective number of founders and the effective selection coefficients, even in the presence of migration among populations. We also show that our analytic results are applicable to a model of range expansion in a continuously distributed population.

Ancient structure in Africa unlikely to explain Neanderthal and non-African genetic similarity

Neanderthals have been shown to share more genetic variants with present-day non-Africans than Africans. Recent admixture between Neanderthals and modern humans outside of Africa was proposed as the most parsimonious explanation for this observation. However, the hypothesis of ancient population structure within Africa could not be ruled out as an alternative explanation. We use simulations to test whether the site frequency spectrum, conditioned on a derived Neanderthal and an ancestral Yoruba (African) nucleotide (the doubly conditioned site frequency spectrum [dcfs]), can distinguish between models that assume recent admixture or ancient population structure. We compare the simulations to the dcfs calculated from data taken from populations of European, Chinese, and Japanese descent in the Complete Genomics Diversity Panel. Simulations under a variety of plausible demographic parameters were used to examine the shape of the dcfs for both models. The observed shape of the dcfs cannot be explained by any set of parameter values used in the simulations of the ancient structure model. The dcfs simulations for the recent admixture model provide a good fit to the observed dcfs for non-Africans, thereby supporting the hypothesis that recent admixture with Neanderthals accounts for the greater similarity of Neanderthals to non-Africans than Africans.

Using known QTLs to detect directional epistatic interactions

Epistasis plays important roles in evolution, for example in the evolution of recombination, but each of the current methods to study epistasis has limitations. Here, we propose a new strategy. If a quantitative trait locus (QTL) affecting a quantitative character has been identified, individuals who have the same genotype at that QTL can be regarded as comprising a subpopulation whose response to selection depends in part on interactions with other loci affecting the character. We define the marginal differences to be the differences in the average phenotypes of individuals with different genotypes of that QTL. We show that the response of the marginal differences to directional selection on the quantitative character depends on epistatic gene interactions. For a model with no interactions, the marginal differences do not differ on average from their starting values once linkage equilibrium has been re-established. If there is directional epistasis, meaning that interactions between the QTL and other loci tend to increase or decrease the character more than under an additive model, then the marginal differences will tend to increase or decrease accordingly when larger values of the character are selected for. We develop a likelihood ratio test for significant changes in the marginal differences and show that it has some power to detect directional epistasis for realistic sample sizes. We also show that epistatic interactions which affect the evolution of the marginal differences do not necessarily result in a substantial epistatic component of the genetic variance.

Testing for ancient admixture between closely related populations

One enduring question in evolutionary biology is the extent of archaic admixture in the genomes of present-day populations. In this paper, we present a test for ancient admixture that exploits the asymmetry in the frequencies of the two nonconcordant gene trees in a three-population tree. This test was first applied to detect interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans. We derive the analytic expectation of a test statistic, called the D statistic, which is sensitive to asymmetry under alternative demographic scenarios. We show that the D statistic is insensitive to some demographic assumptions such as ancestral population sizes and requires only the assumption that the ancestral populations were randomly mating. An important aspect of D statistics is that they can be used to detect archaic admixture even when no archaic sample is available. We explore the effect of sequencing error on the false-positive rate of the test for admixture, and we show how to estimate the proportion of archaic ancestry in the genomes of present-day populations. We also investigate a model of subdivision in ancestral populations that can result in D statistics that indicate recent admixture.

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities. We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice.

Genetic history of an archaic hominin group from Denisova Cave in Siberia

Using DNA extracted from a finger bone found in Denisova Cave in southern Siberia, we have sequenced the genome of an archaic hominin to about 1.9-fold coverage. This individual is from a group that shares a common origin with Neanderthals. This population was not involved in the putative gene flow from Neanderthals into Eurasians; however, the data suggest that it contributed 4-6% of its genetic material to the genomes of present-day Melanesians. We designate this hominin population 'Denisovans' and suggest that it may have been widespread in Asia during the Late Pleistocene epoch. A tooth found in Denisova Cave carries a mitochondrial genome highly similar to that of the finger bone. This tooth shares no derived morphological features with Neanderthals or modern humans, further indicating that Denisovans have an evolutionary history distinct from Neanderthals and modern humans.

Group selection on a quantitative character

We derive a model of group and individual selection on a quantitative character that is similar to the single-locus "metapopulation" models of group selection. Two alternative methods for the colonization of new or vacant habitats are examined and their effects are contrasted. In one model, all populations contribute migrants to a common pool, the "migrant pool," from which colonists are drawn at random to fill vacant sites. In the migrant pool there is complete mixing of individuals from different populations. This model of colonization is the one used in all previous models of group selection. In the other model, the "propagule pool" model, each propagule is made up of individuals derived from a single population and there is no mixing of colonists from different populations during propagule formation. The analysis shows that much more between-population genetic variance can be maintained with the propagule pool model than with the migrant pool model. Consequently, group selection can be much more effective in natural populations than is commonly supposed.

A draft sequence of the Neandertal genome

Neandertals, the closest evolutionary relatives of present-day humans, lived in large parts of Europe and western Asia before disappearing 30,000 years ago. We present a draft sequence of the Neandertal genome composed of more than 4 billion nucleotides from three individuals. Comparisons of the Neandertal genome to the genomes of five present-day humans from different parts of the world identify a number of genomic regions that may have been affected by positive selection in ancestral modern humans, including genes involved in metabolism and in cognitive and skeletal development. We show that Neandertals shared more genetic variants with present-day humans in Eurasia than with present-day humans in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that gene flow from Neandertals into the ancestors of non-Africans occurred before the divergence of Eurasian groups from each other.