Historical Trends and Future Projections of Demand for Permanent Residential Aged Care for Older People in Australia, 2008-2052

OBJECTIVES

To examine the historical trends and predict the future rates and total volumes of permanent residential aged care (PRAC) service utilization in Australia.

DESIGN

A population-based repeated cross-sectional and projection study of non-indigenous older people (≥65 years) accessing PRAC in Australia was conducted.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Publicly available aged care admissions from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used.

METHODS

Historical incidence rates (per 1000 people), incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs of PRAC admission from 2008-2009 to 2020-2021 were estimated using negative binomial regression models. The future incidence and prediction intervals (PIs) of PRAC admission between 2021-2022 and 2051-2052 were projected using a generalized additive model-negative binomial regression. All estimates were adjusted or standardized by sex and age.

RESULTS

Between 2008-2009 and 2020-2021, the adjusted admission to PRAC decreased (from 23.6/1000 people to 15.7/1000 people with an IRR = 0.97/year, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). The projected PRAC admission rate will decrease to 12.1/1000 (95%PI 10.8-13.3) by 2037-2038 and 9.0/1000 (95%PI 7.6-10.4) by 2051-2052. The projected volume of PRAC admission will be 73,988 (95%PI 65,960-81,425) at its highest point in 2037-2038 and 64,579 (95%PI 54,258-74,543) in 2051-2052.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The utilization of PRAC has decreased in the past decade, and a predicted decrease in PRAC use in future years is estimated. However, the volume of PRAC utilization will still increase for the next 15 years (until 2037-2038) due to our increasingly older population. These findings can inform service planning of PRAC access in Australia.

Early Childhood Caries Intervention in Aboriginal Australian Children: A Cross-in Randomized Trial

INTRODUCTION

Early childhood caries (ECC) is the strongest predictor of dental caries in adulthood. Indigenous children have higher levels of ECC compared with non-Indigenous children. The study aimed to estimate the efficacy of an ECC intervention among Aboriginal Australian children.

METHODS

Baby Teeth Talk was an outcome assessor-blinded, closed-cohort cross-in randomized controlled trial conducted in South Australia, Australia. We randomly allocated 448 women pregnant with an Aboriginal child to either an immediate (II) or delayed (DI) intervention group between January 2011 and May 2012. The immediate intervention comprised (1) provision of dental care to mothers during pregnancy; (2) application of fluoride varnish to teeth of children at ages 6, 12; and 18 mo; (3) motivational interviewing delivered in conjunction; and (4) anticipatory guidance. Mothers/children in the DI group received the same intervention commencing when the child was 24 mo of age. The outcomes were assessed by the number of decayed, missing, and filled teeth (dmft) in children aged 24, 36, and 60 mo. Regression-based approaches with generalized linear mixed effect (log-Poisson) model characterized the mean dmft to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 223 participants were randomly allocated to the II group and 225 to the DI group. Three hundred sixty-five children (178 II, 187 DI) received at least 1 dental clinical examination at 24, 36, and 60 mo of follow-up. The mean dmft was lower in the II group (0.48, 1.32, and 2.06) than in the DI group (0.82, 1.90, and 3.29) at each time point, respectively. The direct ECC intervention effect was to prevent/decrease dental decay experience (dmft) occurrence by 84% (RR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.20-2.48) after adjusting for all covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicated that the time-varied ECC intervention had immediate and longer-term effects on the prevention of ECC among Indigenous Australian children.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

The study aimed to estimate the efficacy of an early childhood caries (ECC) intervention among Aboriginal Australian children. The findings indicated that the culturally appropriate ECC intervention is effective for the preventive of ECC and can be used by clinicians, educators, and policy makers when planning an ECC intervention, so as to prevent and reduce ECC and meet identified oral health needs across the Australian population, which is important for preventive dental care.

Objectively measured infant and toddler screen time: Findings from a prospective study

Objective

Screen time guidelines recommend no screens under two years due to the potential negative impacts on development. While current reports suggest many children exceed this, research relies on parent reports of their children's screen exposure. We objectively assess screen exposure during the first two years and how it differs by maternal education and gender.

Methods

This Australian prospective cohort study used speech recognition technology to understand young children's screen exposure over an average day. Data collection occurred every six months when children were 6, 12, 18 and, 24 months old (n = 207). The technology provided automated counts of children's exposure to electronic noise. Audio segments were then coded as screen exposure. Prevalence of screen exposure was quantified, and differences between demographics examined.

Results

At six months, children were exposed to an average of 1hr, 16 min (SD = 1hr, 36 min) of screens per day, increasing to an average of 2 h, 28 min (SD = 2 h, 4 min) by 24-months. Some children at six months were exposed to more than 3 h of screen time per day. Inequalities in exposure were evident as early as six months. Children from higher educated families were exposed to 1hr,43 min fewer screens per day, 95%CI (-2hr, 13 min, -1hr, 11 min) compared to lower educated households, with this difference remaining consistent as children age. Girls were exposed to an additional 12 min of screens 95%CI (-20 min, 44 min) per day compared to boys at six months, but this difference reduced to only 5 min by 24-months.

Conclusion

Using an objective measure of screen exposure, many families exceed screen time guidelines, the extent increasing with child's age. Furthermore, substantial differences between maternal education groups emerge as young as six months old. This highlights the need for education and supports for parents around screen use in the early years, balanced within the realities of modern life.

Child protection contact among children of culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds: A South Australian linked data study

AIM

To describe the cumulative incidence of child protection (CP) system contact, maltreatment type, source of reports to age 7 years, and socio-demographic characteristics for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) Australian children.

METHODS

We used CP, education, health, and birth registrations data for children followed from birth up to age 7 from the South Australian Better Evidence, Better Outcomes, Linked Data (SA BEBOLD) platform.

PARTICIPANTS

SA born children enrolled in their first year of school from 2009 to 2015 (n = 76 563). CALD defined as non-Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, spoken language other than English, Indigenous or Sign, or had at least one parent born in a non-English speaking country.

OUTCOMES MEASURES

For CALD and non-CALD children, we estimated the cumulative incidence (risk) of CP contacts up to age 7, relative risk and risk differences for all levels of CP contact from notification to out-of-home care (OOHC), primary maltreatment type, reporter type, and socio-economic characteristics. Sensitivity analyses explored different population selection criteria and CALD definitions.

RESULTS

By age 7, 11.2% of CALD children had 'screened-in' notifications compared to 18.8% of non-CALD (risk difference [RD] 7.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 6.9-8.3)), and 0.6% of CALD children experienced OOHC compared to 2.2% of non-CALD (RD 1.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 1.3-1.8)). Emotional abuse was the most common substantiated maltreatment type for CALD and neglect for non-CALD. Among both groups, the most common reporter sources were police and education sector. Socio-economic characteristics were broadly similar. Sensitivity analyses results were consistent with primary analyses.

CONCLUSION

By age 7, CALD children had lower risk of contact with all levels of CP. Estimates based on primary and sensitivity analyses suggested CALD children were 5-9 percentage points less likely to have a report screened-in, and from 1.0 to 1.7 percentage points less likely to have experienced OOHC.

Application of multilevel models for predicting pain following root canal treatment

OBJECTIVES

This study developed predictive models for one-week acute and six-month persistent pain following root canal treatment (RCT). An additional aim was to study the gain in predictive efficacy of models containing clinical factors only, over models containing sociodemographic characteristics.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis of 708 patients who received RCTs was conducted. Three sets of predictors were used: (1) combined set, containing all predictors in the data set; (2) clinical set and (3) sociodemographic set. Missing data were handled by multiple imputation using the missing indicator method. The multilevel least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors into the final multilevel logistic models. Three measures, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and calibration curves, were used to assess the predictive performance of the models.

RESULTS

The selected-in factors in the final models, using LASSO regression, are related to pre- and intra-treatment clinical symptoms and pain experience. Predictive performance of the models remained the same with the inclusion (exclusion) of the socio-demographic factors. For predicting one-week outcome, the model built with combined set of predictors yielded the highest AUROC and AUPRC of 0.85 and 0.72, followed by the models built with clinical factors (AUROC = 0.82, AUPRC = 0.66). The lowest predictive ability was found in models with only sociodemographic characteristics (AUROC = 0.68, AUPRC = 0.40). Similar patterns were observed in predicting six-month outcome, where the AUROC for models with combined, clinical and sociodemographic sets of predictors were 0.85, 0.89 and 0.66, respectively, and the AUPRC were 0.48, 0.53 and 0.22, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical factors such as the severity and experience of pre-operative and intra-operative pain were discovered important to the subsequent development of pain following RCTs. Adding sociodemographic characteristics to the models with clinical factors did not change the models' predictive performance or the proportion of explained variance.

Reflection on modern methods: risk ratio regression-simple concept yet complex computation

The risk ratio (RR) is the ratio of the outcome among the exposed to risk of the outcome among the unexposed. This is a simple concept, which makes one wonder why it has not gained the same popularity as the odds ratio. Using logistic regression to estimate the odds ratio is quite common in epidemiology and interpreting the odds ratio as a risk ratio, under the assumption that the outcome is rare, is also common. On one hand, estimating the odds ratio is simple but interpreting it is hard. On the other, estimating the risk ratio is challenging but its interpretation is straightforward. Issues with estimating risk ratio still remain after four decades. These issues include convergence of the algorithm, the choice of regression specification (e.g. log-binomial, Poisson) and many more. Various new computational methods are available which help overcome the issue of convergence and provide doubly robust estimates of RR.

Individuals with Inflammatory Bowel Disease Have an Altered Gut Microbiome Composition of Fungi and Protozoa

It is known that the bacterial gut microbiome is altered in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but far less is known about the role of eukaryotic microorganisms in IBD. While eukaryotes are rarer than bacteria within the gastrointestinal environment, the current literature suggests that they may also be implicated in IBD. In our study, we characterized these often-neglected eukaryotic microbial communities by identifying fungi and protozoa in published shotgun stool metagenomes from 355 people with IBD (206 with Crohn’s disease, 126 with ulcerative colitis, and 23 with IBD-unclassified) and 471 unaffected healthy individuals. The individuals with IBD had a higher prevalence of fungi, particularly Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and a lower prevalence of protozoa, particularly Blastocystis species (subtypes 1, 2, 3, and 4). Regression analysis showed that disease state, age, and BMI were associated with the prevalence and abundance of these two genera. We also characterized the eukaryotic gut microbiome in a shotgun stool metagenomic dataset from people with IBD who received fecal transplants, with samples pre- and post-transplantation, and from their donors. We found that in some FMT recipients, a single eukaryotic species remained stable over time, while in other recipients, the eukaryotic composition varied. We conclude that the eukaryotic gut microbiome is altered and varies over time in IBD, and future studies should aim to include these microbes when characterizing the gut microbiome in IBD.

Explaining the gap in the experience of depression among arthritis patients

OBJECTIVE

To explain the factors contributing to the gap in depression between employed arthritis patients with and without paid sick leave.

METHODS

Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis was used to identify factors that explain the gap in the experience of depressive symptoms among arthritis patients with paid and unpaid sick leave. Data from the 2018 National Health Interview Survey, USA, was used.

RESULTS

A total of 7189 of the NHIS survey participants given the diagnosis of arthritis were identified, of which 39% were male and 61% were female, with mean age of 63.5 years. The decomposition findings suggest patients in the unpaid sick leave group were more likely to report depressive symptoms compared to patients with paid sick leave. The major contributors to the gap in the report of depressive symptoms are sex (female) and annual income (less than 35,000 USD).

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that the absence of paid sick leave is a key determinant for experiencing depressive symptoms among individuals with arthritis. The provision of paid sick leave may reduce report of depressive symptoms among employed arthritis patients in the USA.

KEY POINTS

• Individuals with arthritis are consistently at greater risk of depression and unemployment as compared to individuals without arthritis. • To date greater emphasis is put on determinants of unemployment, while there is no available data on benefits associated with being employed, such as sick leave, and how it affects mental health. • Patients with unpaid sick leave appear to experience more persistent depressive symptoms than patients with access to paid sick leave. • To tackle burden of depression among arthritis patients, provision of paid sick leave may be an effective intervention.

Effect of oral health literacy on self-reported tooth loss: A multiple mediation analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the mediating pathways of oral health literacy (OHL) and oral health-related behaviours on the relationship between education and self-reported tooth loss among Australian adults.

METHODS

Data used for studying the effects of mediating pathways are from the National Dental Telephone Interview Survey 2013, a random sample survey of Australian adults aged 18+ years. To study the mediating effects, we use counterfactual-based analysis. To decompose the effect of multiple mediator's alternate, to natural effect, methods such as interventional effects have been proposed. In this paper, we use these approaches to decompose the effect between education, OHL and oral health-related behaviours on self-reported tooth loss. Sensitivity analysis was performed for unmeasured confounding with multiple mediators.

RESULTS

Data were available for 2936 Australian adults. The prevalence of persons with ≥12 self-reported tooth loss was approximately 15%. The average total causal effect from the low education group was nearly 150%, and the interventional indirect effect through OHL and the dependence of oral health-related behaviours on OHL to more than 12 missing teeth were 20% and 120%, respectively, higher than in the high education group. Sensitivity analysis indicated if the difference in the prevalence of unmeasured confounder is as big as 6% the direct effect and the indirect effect remains as observed.

CONCLUSIONS

An additional two-fifths reduction on having more than 12 missing teeth for Australian adults with lower education level could be achieved if the proportion of lower OHL was decreased and optimal dental behaviours were increased.

Elective labor induction vs expectant management of pregnant women at term and children's educational outcomes at 8 years of age

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks' gestation on children's educational outcomes as measured using the Australian National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) tests in school year 3 (∼8 years of age), compared with expectant management.

METHODS

We merged perinatal data on all infants born in South Australia from 1999 to 2008 with children's school assessment data from NAPLAN. The study population included all singleton infants born without a malformation at 39-42 weeks in vertex presentation. Children who had undertaken the NAPLAN test in school year 3 were included. We excluded births to women who had a contraindication to vaginal delivery and those with a condition possibly justifying elective delivery before 39 weeks. The outcome of interest was children's educational outcome as measured using NAPLAN, which includes five learning domains (reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy). Each domain was categorized according to performance at or below vs above the national minimum standard (NMS). Average treatment effects (ATEs) of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks compared with expectant management on the proportion of children performing at/below the NMS for each domain were estimated using the augmented inverse-propensity-weighted estimator, accounting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 53 843 children born at 39-42 weeks in vertex presentation from 1999 to 2008 and who were expected to participate in the year-3 NAPLAN from 2008 to 2015, a total of 31 120 had at least one year-3 NAPLAN domain. Of these, 1353 children were delivered after elective induction of labor at 39 weeks while 29 767 children were born following expectant management. The ATEs (mean differences) of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks compared with expectant management on the proportion of children scoring at/below the NMS on each domain were 0.01 (95% CI, -0.02 to 0.03) for reading, 0.02 (95% CI, 0.00-0.04) for writing, 0.01 (95% CI, -0.01 to 0.04) for spelling, 0.02 (95% CI, -0.01 to 0.04) for grammar and 0.03 (95% CI, 0.00-0.05) for numeracy.

CONCLUSION

Elective induction of labor at 39 weeks did not affect children's standardized literacy and numeracy testing outcomes at 8 years of age when compared with expectant management. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The education word gap emerges by 18 months: findings from an Australian prospective study

BACKGROUND

The idea of the '30 million word gap' suggests families from more socioeconomically advantaged backgrounds engage in more verbal interactions with their child than disadvantaged families. Initial findings from the Language in Little Ones (LiLO) study up to 12 months showed no word gap between maternal education groups.

METHODS

Families with either high or low maternal education were purposively recruited into a five-year prospective study. We report results from the first three waves of LiLO when children were 6, 12 and 18 months old. Day-long audio recordings, obtained using the Language Environment Analysis software, provided counts of adult words spoken to the child, child vocalizations and conversational turns.

RESULTS

By the time children were 18 months old all three measures of talk were 0.5 to 0.7 SD higher among families with more education, but with large variation within education groups. Changes in talk from 6 to 18 months highlighted that families from low educated backgrounds were decreasing the amount they spoke to their children (- 4219.54, 95% CI -6054.13, - 2384.95), compared to families from high educated backgrounds who remained relatively stable across this age period (- 369.13, 95% CI - 2344.57, 1606.30).

CONCLUSIONS

The socioeconomic word gap emerges between 12 and 18 months of age. Interventions to enhance maternal communication, child vocalisations and vocabulary development should begin prior to 18 months.

Longitudinal Mediation Analysis Using Natural Effect Models

Mediation analysis is concerned with the decomposition of the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect, through a given mediator, and the remaining direct effect. This is ideally done using longitudinal measurements of the mediator, which capture the mediator process more finely. However, longitudinal measurements pose challenges for mediation analysis, because the mediators and outcomes measured at a given time point can act as confounders for the association between mediators and outcomes at a later time point; these confounders are themselves affected by the prior exposure and outcome. Such posttreatment confounding cannot be dealt with using standard methods (e.g., generalized estimating equations). Analysis is further complicated by the need for so-called cross-world counterfactuals to decompose the total effect. This work addresses these challenges. In particular, we introduce so-called natural effect models, which parameterize the direct and indirect effect of a baseline exposure with respect to a longitudinal mediator and outcome. These can be viewed as a generalization of marginal structural mean models to enable effect decomposition. We introduce inverse probability weighting techniques for fitting these models, adjusting for (measured) time-varying confounding of the mediator-outcome association. Application of this methodology uses data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of children born in the United Kingdom between September 2000 and January 2002.

Associations between Apgar scores and children's educational outcomes at eight years of age

BACKGROUND

Low Apgar scores are associated with neonatal morbidity and mortality, but effects of Apgar scores of 0-5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (compared with 10) on longer-term neurodevelopmental outcomes are less clear.

AIM

To examine the associations between Apgar scores of 0-5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (compared with 10) and children's educational outcomes as measured by the Australian National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) tests at age eight.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We merged perinatal data including all children born in South Australia from 1999 to 2008 with school assessment data (NAPLAN). School assessments included five learning areas (domains)-reading, writing, spelling, grammar and numeracy. Each domain was categorised according to performing at or below National Minimum Standards (≤NMS). Effects were estimated using Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) accounting for a range of maternal, perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Risk differences comparing five-minute Apgar scores of 0-5 with Apgar scores of 10 for children performing ≤NMS for each domain were: reading (0.07 (95% CI -0.16 to 0.29)), writing (0.27 (95% CI -0.14 to 0.68)), spelling (0.15 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.40)), grammar (0.04 (95% CI -0.21 to 0.29)) and numeracy (0.21 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.45)). Risk differences for children performing ≤NMS were also evident when Apgar score of 6 was compared with Apgar score of 10.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with five-minute Apgar scores of 0-5 and 6, compared with Apgar score of 10, are at higher risk of scoring at/below the NMS on the NAPLAN assessments at eight years.

Educational activities on language and behavioural outcomes at school entry are more important for socioeconomically disadvantaged children: a prospective observational study of Australian children

BACKGROUND

To investigate whether time spent in educational activities at 2-3 years and developmental outcomes at school entry differ among children from different socioeconomic backgrounds.

METHODS

Participants were from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n=4253). Time spent in educational activities was collected using 24-hour time-use diaries. Income was measured using parent self-report. Receptive vocabulary was assessed using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, and problem behaviours were measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Marginal structural models were used to test whether the effects of educational activities on outcomes differed by income.

RESULTS

Children exposed to both <30 min/day in educational activities and being in a low-income household were at greater risk of poorer outcomes at school entry than the simple sum of their independent effects. Compared with children who spent ≥30 min/day in educational activities from high-income households, children who experienced <30 min/day in educational activities from low-income households had a 2.30 (95% CI 1.88 to 2.80) higher risk of having a receptive vocabulary score in the lowest quartile at school entry. The Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction of 0.15 (95% CI -0.38 to 0.67) was greater than 0, indicating a super-additive effect measure modification by income. These patterns were similar for behavioural outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that if there was an intervention of sufficient dose to increase the amount of time spent in educational activities to at least 30 min/day for children in the lower-income group, the risk of children having sub-optimal receptive vocabulary would be reduced by 45% and the risk of teacher-reported conduct and hyperactivity problems reduced by 67% and 70%, respectively.

Estimating Bias Due to Unmeasured Confounding in Oral Health Epidemiology

Confounding can make an association seem bigger when the true effect is smaller or vice-versa and it can also make it appear negative when it may actually be positive. In short, both the direction and the magnitude of an association are dependent on confounding. Therefore, understanding and adjusting for confounding in epidemiological research is central to addressing whether an observed association is causal or not. Moreover, unmeasured confounding in observational studies can give rise to biased estimates. Several techniques have been developed to account for bias and conducting sensitivity analysis. Using an hypothetical example this paper illustrates application of simple methods for conducting sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounder(s).

Effect decomposition through multiple causally nonordered mediators in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounding

Avin et al (2005) showed that, in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounding, decomposing the total causal effect (TCE) using standard conditional exchangeability assumptions is not possible even under a nonparametric structural equation model with all confounders observed. Subsequent research has investigated the assumptions required for such a decomposition to be identifiable and estimable from observed data. One approach was proposed by VanderWeele et al (2014). They decomposed the TCE under three different scenarios: (1) treating the mediator and the exposure-induced confounder as joint mediators; (2) generating path-specific effects albeit without distinguishing between multiple distinct paths through the exposure-induced confounder; and (3) using so-called randomised interventional analogues where sampling values from the distribution of the mediator within the levels of the exposure effectively marginalises over the exposure-induced confounder. In this paper, we extend their approach to the case where there are multiple mediators that do not influence each other directly but which are all influenced by an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder. We provide a motivating example and results from a simulation study based on from our work in dental epidemiology featuring the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil.

A Dyadic Perspective on Coping and its Effects on Relationship Quality and Psychological Distress in Couples Living with Chronic Pain: A Longitudinal Study

Objective

Dyadic coping is a process of coping within couples that is intended not only to support the patient with chronic pain but also to maintain equilibrium in the relationship. This study aims to investigate the effect of patient-perceived and spouse-reported dyadic coping on both the patient and their partner’s relationship quality and anxiety, stress, and depression over time.

Methods

One hundred thirty-nine couples, with one partner experiencing chronic pain, participated in this study. Spanning three measurements over six months, couples reported on their anxiety, stress, depression, relationship quality, and dyadic coping.

Results

Patient-perceived supportive dyadic coping was positively associated with both partners’ relationship quality but was negatively associated with spouses’ stress over time. Patient-perceived negative dyadic coping was negatively associated with both partners’ relationship quality and positively associated with patients’ depression and spouses’ depression and stress over time. Spouse-reported supportive dyadic coping showed a positive association with their own relationship quality and a negative association with spouses’ depression at baseline and patients’ depression at three-month follow-up. Spouse-reported negative dyadic coping was negatively associated with their relationship quality at baseline and positively associated with their partner’s anxiety and stress at six-month and three-month follow-up, respectively. Similar inference was observed from the findings of growth curve model.

Conclusions

As compared with spouse report, patient perception of dyadic coping is a better predictor of both partners’ relationship quality and psychological outcomes over time. Both partners may benefit from early psychosocial intervention to improve their dyadic coping, relationship quality, and psychological outcomes.

Which time investments in the first 5 years of life matter most for children’s language and behavioural outcomes at school entry?

Background

The ways children spend their time is one of the most valuable inputs for healthy child development. It is unknown which time investment yields the greatest return for children’s language and behavioural outcomes at school entry.

Methods

We used data from the first three waves (2004, 2006, 2008) of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n = 4253). At every wave, parents completed 24-h time-use diaries on one randomly selected week and one weekend day. The amount of time children spent on 11 activities at ages 0–1, 2–3 and 4–5 years was analysed. Receptive vocabulary was assessed using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, and externalizing behaviours were measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, completed by parents and teachers at 4–5 years. To identify which time investment in the first 5 years of life mattered most for children’s outcomes, a new production function was developed. This production function was estimated using a log–log linear regression model.

Results

Relative to other time investments, time spent on educational activities at 2–3 years of age was the most important time investment for receptive vocabulary and behavioural outcomes at school entry. After adjusting for confounding, every 1 h invested in educational activities at 2–3 years was associated with a 0.95% [95% CI (confidence interval): 0.62, 1.28] increase in receptive vocabulary, and a −5.72% (95% CI: −7.71, −3.73) and −9.23% (95% CI: −12.26, −6.20) reduction in parent- and teacher-reported externalizing problem behaviours. Time invested in play was also important to both receptive vocabulary and behaviour. One hour invested in play at 2–3 and 4–5 years was associated with a 0.68% (95% CI: 0.38, 0.98) and 0.71% (95% CI: 0.39, 1.03) increase in children’s receptive vocabulary at school entry. In addition, time invested in play at 2–3 and 4–5 years was associated with reduced problem behaviours at school entry. In contrast, screen time at all ages was associated with poorer parent- and teacher-reported externalizing problem behaviours.

Conclusions

These results suggest that time invested in educational activities at 2–3 years of age yield the greatest return for children’s receptive vocabulary and behaviour at school entry.

The Controlled Direct Effect of Early-Life Socioeconomic Position on Periodontitis in a Birth Cohort

This study used data from the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study, Brazil, to estimate the controlled direct effect of early-life socioeconomic position (SEP) on periodontitis at age 31 years, controlling for adulthood income and education, smoking, and dental hygiene. Sex was included as a covariate. Early-life SEP was measured at participant birth based on income, health services payment mode, maternal education, height, and skin color (lower versus middle/higher SEP). Periodontitis was assessed through clinical examination at age 31 years (healthy, mild periodontitis, or moderate-to-severe disease). Adulthood behaviors (smoking, dental hygiene) were the mediators, and adulthood SEP (education and income) represented the exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. A regression-based approach was used to assess the controlled direct effect of early-life SEP on periodontitis. Multinomial regression models were used to estimate risk ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The prevalences of mild and moderate-to-severe periodontitis were 23.0% and 14.3%, respectively (n = 539). Individuals from the lowest early-life SEP had a higher risk of moderate-to-severe periodontitis controlled for mediators and exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders: risk ratio = 1.85 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 3.24), E value 3.1. We found that early-life SEP was associated with the development of periodontitis in adulthood that was not mediated by adulthood SEP and behaviors.

Assessment of pain-related fear in individuals with chronic painful conditions

Background

Heightened fear and anxiety related to pain may result in emotional and behavioral avoidance responses causing disability, distress, and depression. Fear and anxiety associated with pain can potentially change the course of the pain experience. It is plausible that fear and anxiety related to pain affect the duration and frequency of pain experienced by the patient.

Aim

The study aimed to examine the applicability of the Fear of Pain Questionnaire-III (FPQ-III) in identifying who are likely to report longer duration and greater frequency of pain experience.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, a cross-sectional study was conducted with 579 individuals from a community-based sample living with chronic pain. The factor structure and validity of FPQ-III in the community-based sample were also tested.

Results

The findings suggest higher fear of severe pain but lower fear of medical pain, associated with longer duration and more frequent pain experience. The analysis also confirmed the three-factor structure of FPQ-III, demonstrating good internal consistency for fear of severe pain (0.71) and fear of medical pain (0.73) and acceptable range for fear of minor pain (0.65).

Conclusion

These findings suggest that the FPQ-III can be potentially applied to identify individuals at risk for prolonged continuous pain and as a screening tool to measure fear and anxiety related to pain.

Association of anthropometric measures and cardiovascular risk factors in children and adolescents: Findings from the Aboriginal Birth Cohort study

This study examined the association of anthropometric measures including height, leg length, trunk length and body mass index (BMI) at 11 and 18 years with systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) at 11 and 18 years. We analysed data from 661 participants from the Aboriginal Birth Cohort study–a longitudinal study based in the Northern Territory, Australia. Associations between anthropometric measures and cardiovascular risk factors were investigated in linear regression analyses adjusted for confounding, with imputation for missing data. In adjusted analyses, increasing leg length [males: 0.47mmHg/cm (0.23, 0.72); females: 0.50mmHg/cm (0.18, 0.83)], trunk length [males: 0.50mmHg/cm (0.28, 0.73); females: 0.57mmHg/cm (0.33, 0.81)] and height [males: 0.32mmHg/cm (0.16, 0.48); females: 0.32mmHg/cm (0.12, 0.52)] at 11 years was associated with higher SBP at 11 years. When these exposures were measured at 18 years the effect on SBP at 18 years had attenuated, and only increased trunk length was associated with higher SBP at 18 years for both sexes [males: 0.46mmHg/cm (0.05, 0.87); females: 0.69mmHg/cm (0.30, 1.08)]. We observed little association between height, leg length and trunk length and DBP, total cholesterol, LDL-c and HDL-c. Increased BMI was associated with elevated SBP and DBP at 11 and 18 years. Our findings suggest that height, leg length, and trunk length measured at 11 and 18 years was generally not associated with cardiovascular risk factors at 11 and 18 years. However, greater childhood BMI was associated with higher blood pressure and this association persisted into adolescence. This study contributes to the limited body of evidence on the association between measures of early anthropometry and cardiovascular risk among the Australian Aboriginal population.

Factors Associated with Vitamin D Testing, Deficiency, Intake, and Supplementation in Patients with Chronic Pain

Vitamin D deficiency is a public health issue, with reports of six- to twenty-five-fold rise in vitamin D testing. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to many chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, depression, and chronic pain. Identifying factors associated with risk of deficiency in individuals with chronic pain will help minimize time and cost. This study aims to examine the factors associated with vitamin D testing, intake, and physician-advised supplementation in individuals with chronic pain. Using a cross-sectional design, data were collected from 465 individuals with chronic pain. These data were analyzed using penalized logistic regression with the LASSO technique. Fifty-seven percent reported being tested for vitamin D, about 40% reported being diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency, and of those who had been tested, 60% reported taking vitamin D supplementation. The findings suggest older age (OR 3.12, CI [1.02, 9.50]) and higher mean pain intensity score (OR 2.02, CI [1.13, 3.59]) increased an individual's chance of being vitamin D deficient. Unemployment or on leave due to pain (OR 1.79, [CI 1.03, 3.11]), part-time employment (OR 1.86, CI [1.02, 3.39]), and being a resident of Australia (OR 2.32, CI [1.13, 4.72]) increased chances of being tested for vitamin D. Being diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency (OR 6.67, CI [2.75, 16.19]), unemployed or on leave due to pain (OR 3.71, CI [1.25, 11.00]), and in part-time employment (OR 2.69, CI [0.86, 8.38]) were associated with physician-advised vitamin D supplementation. Our results may have practical implications, as identifying pretest risk factors may assist in identifying who is at risk of vitamin D deficiency, whom to test, and when to treat.

Influence of Fear of Pain and Coping Strategies on Health-Related Quality of Life and Patient-Anticipated Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Pain: Cross-Sectional Study Protocol

Background

Fear of pain and coping strategies are emotional-behavioral responses to pain and are known to play an important role in the development and maintenance of pain. It is highly likely that fear of pain and coping strategies influence each other, potentially affecting the course of chronic pain. To our knowledge, the relationship between pain, fear of pain and coping strategies, and how they influence patient-anticipated outcomes and health-related quality of life, have not been investigated.

Objective

The aims of this study are to test (1) if both fear of pain and/or coping strategies are sufficient causes for maintaining pain; and (2) whether fear of pain influences coping strategies and pain intensity. The study will also examine the impact of fear of pain and coping strategies on health-related quality of life and patient-anticipated outcomes.

Methods

The cross-sectional study will be conducted using an online survey. The Fear of Pain Questionnaire-III (FPQ-III), the Brief Coping Inventory (COPE), and EuroQoL-5d (EQ-5D) validated questionnaires will be used to collect data. Information pertaining to demographic factors, pain-related factors, and patient-anticipated outcomes will also be collected. The study has ethics approval from the Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of Adelaide. Study participants will be individuals aged 18 years and above who are experiencing chronic pain (ie, pain lasting more than 6 months). Effect measure modification technique (EMMM) will be used to examine if fear of pain acts as a moderator or mediator between coping strategies and pain. Simple and multinomial logistic regression analysis will be used to examine the effect of fear of pain and coping strategies on health-related quality of life and patient-anticipated outcomes.

Results

Recruitment began July 2017 and it is anticipated that data collection will be completed by October 2017. Findings from this study will help to extend our understanding of fear of pain and coping strategies, their interaction, and their impact on health-related quality of life and patient-anticipated outcomes.

Conclusions

Fear of pain and coping strategies have significant influence on the experience of chronic pain and its course. This study will help enhance our understanding of the relationship between fear of pain and coping strategies, which may help in developing patient-centered care practices.

Impact of Prolonged Breastfeeding on Dental Caries: A Population-Based Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have assessed the effect of breastfeeding, bottle feeding, and sugar consumption on children's dental caries. We investigated whether the duration of breastfeeding is a risk factor for dental caries in the primary dentition, independently of sugar consumption.

METHODS

An oral health study (n = 1303) nested in a birth cohort study was carried out in southern Brazil. The average number of decayed, missing, and filled primary tooth surfaces (dmfs) and severe early childhood caries (S-ECC: dmfs ≥6) were investigated at age 5 years. Breastfeeding was the main exposure collected at birth and at 3, 12, and 24 months of age. Data on sugar consumption were collected at 24, 48, and 60 months of age. Marginal structural modeling was used to estimate the controlled direct effect of breastfeeding (0-12, 13-23, and ≥24 months) on dmfs and on S-ECC.

RESULTS

The prevalence of S-ECC was 23.9%. The mean number of dmfs was 4.05. Children who were breastfed for ≥24 months had a higher number of dmfs (mean ratio: 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.5-2.4) and a 2.4 times higher risk of having S-ECC (risk ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7-3.3) than those who were breastfed up to 12 months of age. Breastfeeding between 13 and 23 months had no effect on dental caries.

CONCLUSIONS

Prolonged breastfeeding increases the risk of having dental caries. Preventive interventions for dental caries should be established as early as possible because breastfeeding is beneficial for children's health. Mechanisms underlying this process should be investigated more deeply.

Associations of Early- and Later-Childhood Poverty With Child Cognitive Function in Indonesia: Effect Decomposition in the Presence of Exposure-Induced Mediator-Outcome Confounding

The amount of family financial resources available in early life influences child health and development. Using data from the 2000 and 2007 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we estimated the associations of early-life poverty (at age <7 years) and poverty in later childhood (at age 7-14 years) with cognitive function at age 7-14 years. Our analysis provided little support for the idea that an early intervention to support household income has a larger effect than intervention later in childhood; both seemed equally important. We also decomposed the effect of poverty at age <7 years into direct and indirect effects mediated through poverty and schooling/home environment at age 7-14 years. For decomposing the effects, we used 3 approaches: 1) joint mediators, 2) path-specific, and 3) intervention analog. Being exposed to poverty before age 7 years had a larger direct effect (difference in cognitive function z score) on child cognitive function at age 7-14 years (i.e., joint mediators β = -0.07, 95% confidence interval: -0.12, -0.02) than the indirect effects mediated through later poverty at age 7-14 years (β = -0.01, 95% confidence interval: -0.04, 0.01) and school attendance/home environment at age 7-14 years. The effect of poverty on cognitive function was small; nevertheless, financial intervention may still benefit children's cognitive function.

Diet-Induced Overweight and Obesity and Periodontitis Risk: An Application of the Parametric G-Formula in the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort

We aimed to estimate hypothetical effects of habits (smoking, alcohol consumption, and fat and carbohydrates consumption) combined with diet-induced overweight/obesity on the risk of periodontitis. The risk of any periodontitis, moderate/severe periodontitis, and the combination of bleeding on probing (BOP) and clinical attachment loss (CAL) was estimated using the parametric g-formula in adults aged 31 years from the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil. Individuals in this cohort have been followed since birth. Hypothetical conditions were set independently for each risk factor and in combination for the entire population. A total of 539 participants had oral examinations in 2013. The cumulative 31-year risk under no intervention was 33.3% for any periodontitis, 14.3%, for moderate/severe periodontitis, and 14.7%, for BOP and CAL. According to our statistical approach, diet-induced overweight/obesity increased the risk of all outcomes: 11% (overweight) and 22% (obesity) higher risk of periodontitis; 12% (overweight) and 27% (obesity) higher risk of moderate/severe periodontitis; 21% (overweight) and 57% (obesity) higher risk of CAL and BOP. When overweight/obesity was combined with other unhealthy habits, the risk was even greater. Our findings suggest that the combination of diet-induced obesity with other risk factors may increase the risk of periodontitis. Further research in the field is required to corroborate our study.

Understanding patient perspectives on management of their chronic pain - online survey protocol

Background

It is widely recognized that both doctors and patients report discontent regarding pain management provided and received. The impact of chronic pain on an individual’s life resonates beyond physical and mental suffering; equal or at times even greater impact is observed on an individual’s personal relationships, ability to work, and social interactions. The degree of these effects in each individual varies, mainly because of differences in biological factors, social environment, past experiences, support, and belief systems. Therefore, it is equally possible that these individual patient characteristics could influence their treatment outcome. Research shows that meeting patient expectations is a major challenge for health care systems attempting to provide optimal treatment strategies. However, patient perspectives and expectations in chronic pain management have not been studied extensively. The aim of this study is to investigate the views, perceptions, beliefs, and expectations of individuals who experience chronic pain on a daily basis, and the strategies used by them in managing chronic pain. This paper describes the study protocol to be used in a cross sectional survey of chronic pain patients.

Methods and analysis

The study population will comprise of individuals aged ≥18 years, who have experienced pain for ≥3 months with no restrictions of sex, ethnicity, or region of residence. Ethics approval for our study was obtained from Humans research ethics committees, University of Adelaide and University of South Australia. Multinomial logistic regression will be used to estimate the effect of duration and character of pain, on patient’s perception of time to recovery and supplement intake. Logistic regression will also be used for estimating the effect of patient-provider relationship and pain education on patient-reported recovery and pain intensity.

Discussion

Knowledge about the perceptions and beliefs of patients with chronic pain could inform future policies, research, health care professional education, and development of individualized treatment strategies.

Efficacy of infant simulator programmes to prevent teenage pregnancy: a school-based cluster randomised controlled trial in Western Australia

BACKGROUND

Infant simulator-based programmes, which aim to prevent teenage pregnancy, are used in high-income as well as low-income and middle-income countries but, despite growing popularity, no published evidence exists of their long-term effect. The aim of this trial was to investigate the effect of such a programme, the Virtual Infant Parenting (VIP) programme, on pregnancy outcomes of birth and induced abortion in Australia.

METHODS

In this school-based pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, eligible schools in Perth, Western Australia, were enrolled and randomised 1:1 to the intervention and control groups. Randomisation using a table of random numbers without blocking, stratification, or matching was done by a researcher who was masked to the identity of the schools. Between 2003 and 2006, the VIP programme was administered to girls aged 13-15 years in the intervention schools, while girls of the same age in the control schools received the standard health education curriculum. Participants were followed until they reached 20 years of age via data linkage to hospital medical and abortion clinic records. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of pregnancy during the teenage years. Binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to test for differences in pregnancy rates between study groups. This study is registered as an international randomised controlled trial, number ISRCTN24952438.

FINDINGS

57 (86%) of 66 eligible schools were enrolled into the trial and randomly assigned 1:1 to the intervention (28 schools) or the control group (29 schools). Then, between Feb 1, 2003, and May 31, 2006, 1267 girls in the intervention schools received the VIP programme while 1567 girls in the control schools received the standard health education curriculum. Compared with girls in the control group, a higher proportion of girls in the intervention group recorded at least one birth (97 [8%] of 1267 in the intervention group vs 67 [4%] of 1567 in the control group) or at least one abortion as the first pregnancy event (113 [9%] vs 101 [6%]). After adjustment for potential confounders, the intervention group had a higher overall pregnancy risk than the control group (relative risk 1·36 [95% CI 1·10-1·67], p=0·003). Similar results were obtained with the use of proportional hazard models (hazard ratio 1·35 [95% CI 1·10-1·67], p=0·016).

INTERPRETATION

The infant simulator-based VIP programme did not achieve its aim of reducing teenage pregnancy. Girls in the intervention group were more likely to experience a birth or an induced abortion than those in the control group before they reached 20 years of age.

FUNDING

Western Australian Health Promotion Foundation (Healthway), Lotteries WA, the Western Australian Department of Education and Training, and the Western Australian Department of Health.

A comparison of propensity score-based approaches to health service evaluation: a case study of a preoperative physician-led clinic for high-risk surgical patients

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

A physician-led clinic for the preoperative optimization and management of high-risk surgical patients was implemented in a South Australian public hospital in 2008. This study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of the clinic using a mixed retrospective and prospective observational study design.

METHOD

Alternative propensity score estimation methods were applied to retrospective routinely collected administrative and clinical data, using weighted and matched cohorts. Supplementary survey-based prospective data were collected to inform the analysis of the retrospective data and reduce potential unmeasured confounding.

RESULTS

Using weighted cohorts, clinic patients had a significantly longer mean length of stay and higher mean cost. With the matched cohorts, reducing the calliper width resulted in a shorter mean length of stay in the clinic group, but the costs remained significantly higher. The prospective data indicated potential unmeasured confounding in all analyses other than in the most tightly matched cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of alternative propensity-based approaches to a large sample of retrospective data, supplemented with a smaller sample of prospective data, informed a pragmatic approach to reducing potential observed and unmeasured confounding in an evaluation of a physician-led preoperative clinic. The need to generate tightly matched cohorts to reduce the potential for unmeasured confounding indicates that significant uncertainty remains around the effects of the clinic. This study illustrates the value of mixed retrospective and prospective observational study designs but also underlines the need to prospectively plan for the evaluation of costs and effects alongside the implementation of significant service innovations.

Do early life cognitive ability and self-regulation skills explain socio-economic inequalities in academic achievement? An effect decomposition analysis in UK and Australian cohorts

Socio-economic inequalities in academic achievement emerge early in life and are observed across the globe. Cognitive ability and "non-cognitive" attributes (such as self-regulation) are the focus of many early years' interventions. Despite this, little research has compared the contributions of early cognitive and self-regulation abilities as separate pathways to inequalities in academic achievement. We examined this in two nationally representative cohorts in the UK (Millennium Cohort Study, n = 11,168; 61% original cohort) and Australia (LSAC, n = 3028; 59% original cohort). An effect decomposition method was used to examine the pathways from socio-economic disadvantage (in infancy) to two academic outcomes: 'low' maths and literacy scores (based on bottom quintile) at age 7-9 years. Risk ratios (RRs, and bootstrap 95% confidence intervals) were estimated with binary regression for each pathway of interest: the 'direct effect' of socio-economic disadvantage on academic achievement (not acting through self-regulation and cognitive ability in early childhood), and the 'indirect effects' of socio-economic disadvantage acting via self-regulation and cognitive ability (separately). Analyses were adjusted for baseline and intermediate confounding. Children from less advantaged families were up to twice as likely to be in the lowest quintile of maths and literacy scores. Around two-thirds of this elevated risk was 'direct' and the majority of the remainder was mediated by early cognitive ability and not self-regulation. For example in LSAC: the RR for the direct pathway from socio-economic disadvantage to poor maths scores was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.17-1.79). The indirect effect of socio-economic disadvantage through cognitive ability (RR = 1.13 [1.06-1.22]) was larger than the indirect effect through self-regulation (1.05 [1.01-1.11]). Similar patterns were observed for both outcomes and in both cohorts. Policies to alleviate social inequality (e.g. child poverty reduction) remain important for closing the academic achievement gap. Early interventions to improve cognitive ability (rather than self-regulation) also hold potential for reducing inequalities in children's academic outcomes.

Usage, adherence and attrition: how new mothers engage with a nurse-moderated web-based intervention to support maternal and infant health. A 9-month observational study

OBJECTIVES

To identify factors predicting use, adherence and attrition with a nurse-moderated web-based group intervention designed to support mothers of infants aged 0-6 months.

DESIGN

9-Month observational study.

SETTING

Community maternal and child health service.

PARTICIPANTS

240 mothers attending initial postnatal health checks at community clinics who were randomly assigned to the intervention arm of a pragmatic preference randomised trial (total randomised controlled trial, n=819; response rate=45%).

INTERVENTION

In the first week (phase I), mothers were assisted with their first website login by a research assistant. In weeks 2-7 (phase II), mothers participated in the web-based intervention with an expectation of weekly logins. The web-based intervention was comparable to traditional face-to-face new mothers' groups. During weeks 8-26 (phase III), mothers participated in an extended programme at a frequency of their choosing.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of logins and posted messages. Standard self-report measures assessed maternal demographic and psychosocial characteristics.

RESULTS

In phase II, the median number of logins was 9 logins (IQR=1-25), and in phase III, it was 10 logins (IQR=0-39). Incident risk ratios from multivariable analyses indicated that compared to mothers with the lowest third of logins in phase I, those with the highest third had 6.43 times as many logins in phase II and 7.14 times in phase III. Fifty per cent of mothers logged-in at least once every 30 days for 147 days after phase I and 44% logged-in at least once in the last 30 days of the intervention. Frequency of logins during phase I was a stronger predictor of mothers' level of engagement with the intervention than their demographic and psychosocial characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Mothers' early use of web-based interventions could be employed to customise engagement protocols to the circumstances of individual mothers with the aim of improving adherence and reducing attrition with web-based interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12613000204741; Results.

Parenting Practices at 24 to 47 Months and IQ at Age 8: Effect-Measure Modification by Infant Temperament

Cognitive development might be influenced by parenting practices and child temperament. We examined whether the associations between parental warmth, control and intelligence quotient (IQ) may be heightened among children in difficult temperament. Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 7,044). Temperament at 6 months was measured using the Revised Infant Temperament Questionnaire and classified into 'easy' and 'difficult'. Parental warmth and control was measured at 24 to 47 months and both were classified into 2 groups using latent class analyses. IQ was measured at 8 years using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children and dichotomized (<85 and ≥85) for analyzing effect-measure modification by temperament. Linear regression adjusted for multiple confounders and temperament showed lower parental warmth was weakly associated with lower IQ score [β = -0.52 (95% CI 1.26, 0.21)], and higher parental control was associated with lower IQ score [β = -2.21 (-2.95, -1.48)]. Stratification by temperament showed no increased risk of having low IQ in temperamentally difficult children [risk ratio (RR) = 0.97 95% CI 0.65, 1.45)] but an increased risk among temperamentally easy children (RR = 1.12 95% CI 0.95, 1.32) when parental warmth was low. There was also no increased risk of having low IQ in temperamentally difficult children (RR = 1.02 95% CI 0.69, 1.53) but there was an increased risk among temperamentally easy children (RR = 1.30 95% CI 1.11, 1.53) when parental control was high. For both parental warmth and control, there was some evidence of negative effect-measure modification by temperament on the risk-difference scale and the risk-ratio scale. It may be more appropriate to provide parenting interventions as a universal program rather than targeting children with difficult temperament.

Are trajectories of self-regulation abilities from ages 2-3 to 6-7 associated with academic achievement in the early school years?

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to estimate the association between two key aspects of self-regulation, 'task attentiveness' and 'emotional regulation' assessed from ages 2-3 to 6-7 years, and academic achievement when children were aged 6-7 years.

METHODS

Participants (n = 3410) were children in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Parents rated children's task attentiveness and emotional regulation abilities when children were aged 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7. Academic achievement was assessed using the Academic Rating Scale completed by teachers. Linear regression models were used to estimate the association between developmental trajectories (i.e. rate of change per year) of task attentiveness and emotional regulation, and academic achievement at 6-7 years.

RESULTS

Improvements in task attentiveness between 2-3 and 6-7 years, adjusted for baseline levels of task attentiveness, child and family confounders, and children's receptive vocabulary and non-verbal reasoning skills at age 6-7 were associated with greater teacher-rated literacy [B = 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.04-0.06] and maths achievement (B = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.03-0.06) at 6-7 years. Improvements in emotional regulation, adjusting for baseline levels and covariates, were also associated with better teacher-rated literacy (B = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.01-0.04) but not with maths achievement (B = 0.01, 95% CI = -0.01-0.02) at 6-7 years. For literacy, improvements in task attentiveness had a stronger association with achievement at 6-7 years than improvements in emotional regulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that improved trajectories of task attentiveness from ages 2-3 to 6-7 years are associated with improved literacy and maths achievement during the early school years. Trajectories of improving emotional regulation showed smaller effects on academic outcomes. Results suggest that interventions that improve task attentiveness when children are aged 2-3 to 6-7 years have the potential to improve literacy and maths achievement during the early school years.

Social inequalities in childcare quality and their effects on children's development at school entry: findings from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

BACKGROUND

Higher quality childcare in the years before school may help narrow developmental gaps between the richest and poorest children in our societies, but specific evidence is limited and inconsistent. We address this issue by examining whether higher quality childcare is associated with better developmental outcomes at school entry for children from lower than higher income families.

METHODS

The sample from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children included children attending childcare from 2 to 3 years (n=980-1187, depending on outcome). Childcare quality was measured using carers assessment of their relationship with the child. Children's receptive vocabulary was directly assessed in the child's home, and behavioural difficulties were measured by teachers and parents at 4-5 years. We assessed additive and multiplicative income-related effect measure modification of the quality of carer-child relationship on developmental outcomes.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounding, there was some evidence of effect measure modification on the additive and multiplicative scales of childcare quality by income. Children experiencing higher quality relationships and lower income had almost the same risk of poorer receptive vocabulary as children in higher quality relationships and higher incomes (relative excess risk due to interaction=0.18; 95% CI -0.20 to 0.52), ratio of relative risks=1.11 (1.04 to 1.17)). These patterns were similar for teacher-reported and parent-reported behavioural difficulties.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of higher quality childcare, in terms of quality relationships with carers, on children's cognitive and behavioural development at school entry were stronger among children from lower income families. This provides some evidence that higher quality relationships in childcare may be especially important in helping reduce developmental gaps for children from lower income families.

Time spent in different types of childcare and children's development at school entry: an Australian longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the total amount of time in childcare through the first 3 years of life was associated with children's receptive vocabulary, externalising and internalising problem behaviours at age 4-5 years, and whether this association varied for different types of childcare.

METHODS

We used data from the prospective, population-based Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n=3208-4066, depending on outcome). Parental reports of the time spent in different types of childcare were collected at face-to-face interviews at age 0-1years and at age 2-3 years. Children's receptive vocabulary was directly assessed in the child's home, and externalising and internalising behaviours were measured by questionnaire, completed by parents and teachers at age 4-5 years.

RESULTS

At 3 years of age, 75% of the sample spent regular time in the care of someone other than the parent. After adjustment, more time in childcare was not associated with children's receptive vocabulary ability but was associated with higher levels of parent-reported (β=0.10 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.21)) and teacher-reported (β=0.31 (0.19 to 0.44)) externalising problem behaviours and lower levels of parent-reported internalising problem behaviours (β=-0.08 (-0.15 to -0.00)). Compared with children who did not attend any type of childcare, children in centre-based care had higher parent-reported and teacher-reported externalising and lower internalising problem behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

More time in centre-based childcare (but not other types of care) through the first 3 years of life was associated with higher parent-reported and teacher-reported externalising problem behaviours, and lower parent-reported internalising problem behaviours but not with children's receptive vocabulary ability at school entry.

Effect on child cognitive function of increasing household expenditure in Indonesia: application of a marginal structural model and simulation of a cash transfer programme

BACKGROUND

Parental investments in children are an important determinant of human capability formation. We investigated the causal effect of household expenditure on Indonesian children's cognitive function between 2000 and 2007. We also investigated the effect of change in mean cognitive function from a simulation of a hypothetical cash transfer intervention.

METHODS

A longitudinal analysis using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) was conducted including 6136 children aged 7 to 14 years in 2000 and still alive in 2007. We used the inverse probability of treatment weighting of a marginal structural model to estimate the causal effect of household expenditure on children's cognitive function.

RESULTS

Cumulative household expenditure was positively associated with cognitive function z-score. From the marginal structural model, a 74534 rupiah/month (about US$9) increase in household expenditure resulted in a 0.03 increase in cognitive function z-score [β=0.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30-0.35] Based on our simulations, among children in the poorest households in 2000 an additional ≈ US$6-10 of cash transfer resulted in a 0.01 unit increase in cognitive function z-score, equivalent to about 6% increase from the mean z-score prior to cash transfer. In contrast, children in the poorest household in 2007 did not benefit from an additional ≈ US$10 cash transfer. We found no overall effect of cash transfers at the total population level.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater household expenditure had a small causal effect on children's cognitive function. Although cash transfer interventions had a positive effect for poor children, this effect was quite small. Multi-faceted interventions that combine nutrition, cash transfer, improved living conditions and women's education are required to benefit children's cognitive development in Indonesia.

Effects of simulated interventions to improve school entry academic skills on socioeconomic inequalities in educational achievement

Randomized controlled trial evidence shows that interventions before age 5 can improve skills necessary for educational success; the effect of these interventions on socioeconomic inequalities is unknown. Using trial effect estimates, and marginal structural models with data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 11,764, imputed), simulated effects of plausible interventions to improve school entry academic skills on socioeconomic inequality in educational achievement at age 16 were examined. Progressive universal interventions (i.e., more intense intervention for those with greater need) to improve school entry academic skills could raise population levels of educational achievement by 5% and reduce absolute socioeconomic inequality in poor educational achievement by 15%.

Quality of childcare influences children's attentiveness and emotional regulation at school entry

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between domain-specific qualities of formal childcare at age 2-3 years and children's task attentiveness and emotional regulation at age 4-5 and 6-7 years.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n = 1038). Three domain-specific aspects of childcare quality were assessed: provider and program characteristics of care, activities in childcare, and carer-child relationship. Two self-regulatory abilities were considered: task attentiveness and emotional regulation. Associations between domain-specific qualities of childcare and self-regulation were investigated in linear regression analyses adjusted for confounding, with imputation for missing data.

RESULTS

There was no association between any provider or program characteristics of care and children's task attentiveness and emotional regulation. The quality of activities in childcare were associated only with higher levels of emotional regulation at age 4-5 years (β = 0.24; 95% CI, 0.03-0.44) and 6-7 years (β = 0.26; 95% CI, 0.04-0.48). Higher-quality carer-child relationships were associated with higher levels of task attentiveness (β = 0.20; 95% CI, 0.05-0.36) and emotional regulation at age 4-5 years (β = 0.19; 95% CI, 0.04-0.34) that persisted to age 6-7 years (β = 0.26; 95% CI, 0.10-0.42; β = 0.31; 95% CI, 0.16-0.47).

CONCLUSION

Among children using formal childcare, those who experienced higher-quality relationships were better able to regulate their attention and emotions as they started school. Higher emotional regulation was also observed for children engaged in more activities in childcare. Beneficial effects were stable over time.

Student-teacher relationship trajectories and mental health problems in young children

BACKGROUND

This longitudinal study classified groups of children experiencing different trajectories of student-teacher relationship quality over the transition from preschool into school, and determined the strength of the association between different student-teacher relationship trajectories and childhood mental health problems in the second year of primary school.

METHODS

A community sample of 460 Australian children were assessed in preschool (age 4), the first school year (age 5), and second school year (age 6). Teachers at all three assessments reported on student-teacher relationship quality with the Student Teacher Relationship Scale. When the children were at preschool and in their second school year, parents and teachers rated children's mental health problems using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire.

RESULTS

Latent-class growth modelling identified two trajectories of student-teacher relationship quality: (1) a stable-high student-teacher relationship quality and (2) a moderate/declining student-teacher relationship quality trajectory. Generalised linear models found that after adjusting for family demographic characteristics, having a stable high quality student-teacher relationship trajectory was associated with fewer parent-rated and teacher-rated total mental health problems, and fewer conduct, hyperactivity, and peer problems, and greater prosocial behaviour at age 6. A stable high quality trajectory was also associated with fewer teacher-rated, but not parent-rated emotional symptoms. These effects remained after adjustment for levels of mental health problems at age 4.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that early intervention and prevention strategies that focus on building stable high quality student-teacher relationships during preschool and children's transition into formal schooling, may help reduce rates of childhood mental health problems during the early school years.

Can screening 4-5 year olds accurately identify children who will have teacher-reported mental health problems when children are aged 6-7 years?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the screening accuracy of information obtained from parents of 4-5-year-old children for the purpose of identifying the children who have teacher-reported mental health problems when they are aged 6-7 years.

METHOD

The study used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) obtained when children were aged 4-5 years and 6-7 years. The level of children's mental health problems was assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) completed by parents when children were aged 4-5 years and by teachers when children were aged 6-7 years (n=2163). When children were aged 4-5 years, parenting skills were assessed using three questionnaires developed for the parent-completed LSAC questionnaire and maternal mental health was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6).

RESULTS

When the level of parent-reported childhood mental health problems at 4-5 years old was used to identify children with teacher-reported mental health problems (i.e. a score in the "abnormal" range of the teacher-reported SDQ Total Difficulties Scale) when the children were aged 6-7 years, sensitivity was 26.8%, positive predictive value was 22.8%, and specificity was 92.9%. The addition of further information about the characteristics of children and their parents made only a small improvement to screening accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted interventions for preschool children may have the potential to play an important role in reducing the prevalence of mental health problems during the early school years. However, current capacity to accurately identify preschoolers who will experience teacher-reported mental health problems during the early school years is limited.

Changes in socioeconomic inequality in Indonesian children's cognitive function from 2000 to 2007: a decomposition analysis

Background

Measuring social inequalities in health is common; however, research examining inequalities in child cognitive function is more limited. We investigated household expenditure-related inequality in children’s cognitive function in Indonesia in 2000 and 2007, the contributors to inequality in both time periods, and changes in the contributors to cognitive function inequalities between the periods.

Methods

Data from the 2000 and 2007 round of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) were used. Study participants were children aged 7–14 years (n = 6179 and n = 6680 in 2000 and 2007, respectively). The relative concentration index (RCI) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Contribution of various contributors to inequality was estimated by decomposing the concentration index in 2000 and 2007. Oaxaca-type decomposition was used to estimate changes in contributors to inequality between 2000 and 2007.

Results

Expenditure inequality decreased by 45% from an RCI = 0.29 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.36) in 2000 to 0.16 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.20) in 2007 but the burden of poorer cognitive function was higher among the disadvantaged in both years. The largest contributors to inequality in child cognitive function were inequalities in per capita expenditure, use of improved sanitation and maternal high school attendance. Changes in maternal high school participation (27%), use of improved sanitation (25%) and per capita expenditures (18%) were largely responsible for the decreasing inequality in children’s cognitive function between 2000 and 2007.

Conclusions

Government policy to increase basic education coverage for women along with economic growth may have influenced gains in children’s cognitive function and reductions in inequalities in Indonesia.

A preference based measure of complementary feeding quality: application to the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children

This paper presents the development of the Complementary Feeding Utility Index (CFUI), a composite index aimed to measure adherence to infant feeding guidelines. Through an axiomatic characterization this paper shows the advantages in using the CFUI are the following: it avoids the use of arbitrary cut-offs, and by converting observed diet preferences into utilities, summing the score is meaningful. In addition, as the CFUI is designed to be scored continuously, it allows the transition from intake of beneficial foods (in low quantities) and intake of detrimental foods (in high quantities) to be more subtle. The paper first describes the rationale being the development of the CFUI and then elaborates on the methodology used to develop the CFUI, including the process of selecting the components. The methodology is applied to data collected from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to show the advantages of the CFUI over traditional diet index approaches. Unlike traditional approaches, the distribution of the CFUI does not peak towards mean value but distributes evenly towards the tails of the distribution.

Diet quality of U.K. infants is associated with dietary, adiposity, cardiovascular, and cognitive outcomes measured at 7-8 years of age

Whereas the influence of pregnancy diet and milk feeding on children's health and development is well characterized, the role of early food intake and eating behaviors is largely unexplored. This study aimed to determine whether the degree of adherence to complementary feeding guidelines was associated with dietary, obesity, cardiovascular, and cognitive outcomes at 7-8 y of age. Data were analyzed from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using parent-completed dietary questionnaires at 6 mo of age to calculate a Complementary Feeding Utility Index score. Regression analysis was used to explore associations between the index score and dietary patterns derived via principal component analysis (n = 4326), body-mass index (BMI) (n = 4801), waist circumference (n = 4798), blood pressure (n = 4685), and lipids (n = 3232) measured at age 7 y; and intelligence quotient (IQ) measured at age 8 y (n = 4429) after adjustment for covariates. The index score was negatively associated with a "processed" dietary pattern (β = -0.16; 95% CI: -0.20, -0.13; P < 0.001) but positively associated with a "health conscious" dietary pattern [β = 0.18 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.21); P < 0.001]. A higher index score was also positively associated with total, verbal, and performance IQ scores at 8 y of age [β = 1.92 (95%CI: 1.38, 2.47); P < 0.001 for total IQ). The index score was weakly associated with waist circumference [β = -0.15 (95%CI: -0.31, -0.002); P = 0.046] and diastolic blood pressure [β = -0.24 (95%CI: -0.47, -0.01); P = 0.043] at 7 y of age but was not associated with BMI or other cardiovascular risk factors. These findings suggest that adherence to current complementary feeding guidelines may have implications for some, but not all, health and development outcomes in childhood.

Diet spanning infancy and toddlerhood is associated with child blood pressure at age 7.5 y

BACKGROUND

Diet in the first 2 y of life may be a pivotal period regarding effects on future blood pressure (BP). However, data on early-life diet and BP in childhood are sparse.

OBJECTIVE

We prospectively assessed associations between types of diet spanning infancy and toddlerhood (ie, transition diets across the complementary feeding period) and BP at age 7.5 y.

DESIGN

In a birth cohort study (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; United Kingdom), a total of 1229 children had complete dietary intake data at 6, 15, and 24 mo; BP data at 7.5 y of age; and all 18 covariables.

RESULTS

Of the 2 transition diets that were extracted by using principal components analysis, the less-healthy diet was associated with an increase in systolic BP of 0.62 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.00, 1.24 mm Hg) and an increase in diastolic BP of 0.55 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.10, 1.00 mm Hg) for every one-unit (SD) increase in the less-healthy-diet score after adjustment for 15 potential confounders, including maternal characteristics and sociodemographic factors, birth variables, and breastfeeding duration. In contrast with systolic BP, the positive association between the less-healthy transition-diet score and diastolic BP persisted after additional adjustment for child body-size factors [height, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference] at 7.5 y.

CONCLUSIONS

A less-healthy transition diet by age 2 y was associated with higher BP at 7.5 y. The BMI-related reduction in effect size reinforces the importance of BMI on the diet-BP relation.

Do dietary trajectories between infancy and toddlerhood influence IQ in childhood and adolescence? Results from a prospective birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether trajectories of dietary patterns from 6 to 24 months of age are associated with intelligence quotient (IQ) in childhood and adolescence.

METHODS

Participants were children enrolled in a prospective UK birth cohort (n = 7,652) who had IQ measured at age 8 and/or 15 years. Dietary patterns were previously extracted from questionnaires when children were aged 6, 15 and 24 months using principal component analysis. Dietary trajectories were generated by combining scores on similar dietary patterns across each age, using multilevel mixed models. Associations between dietary trajectories and IQ were examined in generalized linear models with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Four dietary pattern trajectories were constructed from 6 to 24 months of age and were named according to foods that made the strongest contribution to trajectory scores; Healthy (characterised by breastfeeding at 6 months, raw fruit and vegetables, cheese and herbs at 15 and 24 months); Discretionary (biscuits, chocolate, crisps at all ages), Traditional (meat, cooked vegetables and puddings at all ages) and, Ready-to-eat (use of ready-prepared baby foods at 6 and 15 months, biscuits, bread and breakfast cereals at 24 months). In fully-adjusted models, a 1 SD change in the Healthy trajectory was weakly associated with higher IQ at age 8 (1.07 (95%CI 0.17, 1.97)) but not 15 years (0.49 (-0.28, 1.26)). Associations between the Discretionary and Traditional trajectories with IQ at 8 and 15 years were as follows; Discretionary; 8 years -0.35(-1.03, 0.33), 15 years -0.73(-1.33, -0.14) Traditional; 8 years -0.19(-0.71, 0.33)15 years -0.41(-0.77, -0.04)). The Ready-to-eat trajectory had no association with IQ at either age (8 years 0.32(-4.31, 4.95), 15 years 1.11(-3.10, 5.33).

CONCLUSIONS

The Discretionary and Traditional dietary pattern trajectories from 6 to 24 months of age, over the period when food patterns begin to emerge, are weakly associated with IQ in adolescence.

An index measuring adherence to complementary feeding guidelines has convergent validity as a measure of infant diet quality

The complementary feeding period is an important stage of child development. The study aim was to develop an index reflecting the degree of adherence to complementary feeding guidelines, evaluate its convergent validity, and explore associations with socio-demographic factors and dietary pattern scores in childhood. Data were analyzed from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 6065) using parent-completed dietary questionnaires at 6 mo of age, socio-demographic information, and dietary patterns derived by principal component analysis at age 3 y. The Complementary Feeding Utility Index (CFUI) consists of 14 components: breastfeeding duration, feeding to appetite, timing of introduction to solids, exposure to iron-rich cereals, fruit and vegetable intake, exposure to high-fat/-salt/-sugar foods including sugary drinks, food texture, and meal/snack frequency. Regression analyses were undertaken to investigate associations between index scores, socio-demographic factors, food and nutrient intakes, and dietary pattern scores at age 3 y. Milk and food intake at 6 mo and nutrient intake at 8 mo of age varied across quintiles of index score in largely the expected directions. Associations were found among index score, maternal age, education, social class, maternal smoking history, and prepregnancy BMI. After adjustment for socio-demographic factors, the index score was associated with "processed" [β = -0.234 (95% CI = -0.260, -0.209)] and "healthy" [β = 0.185 (95% CI = 0.155, 0.215)] dietary pattern scores at age 3 y. The CFUI is able to discriminate across food intake, nutrient intake, and socio-demographic factors and is associated with later dietary patterns.