Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output

Background

In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries.

Methods

The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences.

Conclusions

Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

Perceptions and acceptability of co-administered albendazole, ivermectin and azithromycin mass drug administration, among the health workforce and recipient communities in Ethiopia

Several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) employ mass drug administration (MDA) as part of their control or elimination strategies. This has historically required multiple distinct campaigns, each targeting one or more NTDs, representing a strain on both the recipient communities and the local health workforce implementing the distribution. We explored perceptions and attitudes surrounding combined MDA among these two groups of stakeholders. Our qualitative study was nested within a cluster randomized non-inferiority safety trial of combined ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin MDA. Using semi-structured question guides, we conducted 16 key informant interviews with selected individuals involved in implementing MDA within the participating district. To better understand the perceptions of recipient communities, we also conducted four focus group discussions with key community groups. Individuals were selected from both the trial arm (integrated MDA) and the control arm (standard MDA) to provide a means of comparison and discussion. All interviews and focus group discussions were led by fluent Afaan oromo speakers. Interviewers transcribed and later translated all discussions into English. The study team synthesized and analyzed the results via a coding framework and software. Most respondents appreciated the time and effort saved via the co-administered MDA strategy but there were some misgivings amongst community beneficiaries surrounding pill burden. Both the implementing health work force members and beneficiaries reported refusals stemming from lack of understanding around the need for the new drug regimen as well as some mistrust of government officials among the youth. The house-to-house distribution method, adopted as a COVID-19 prevention strategy, was by far preferred by all beneficiaries over central-point MDA, and may have led to greater acceptability of co-administration. Our data demonstrate that a co-administration strategy for NTDs is acceptable to both communities and health staff.

Corrigendum to "Safety of integrated mass drug administration of azithromycin, albendazole and ivermectin versus standard treatment regimens: a cluster-randomised trial in Ethiopia"

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101984.].

Pharmacokinetics, feasibility and safety of co-administering azithromycin, albendazole, and ivermectin during mass drug administration: A review

INTRODUCTION

Traditionally, health ministries implement mass drug administration programmes for each neglected tropical disease (NTD) as separate and distinct campaigns. Many NTDs have overlapping endemicity suggesting co-administration might improve programme reach and efficiency, helping accelerate progress towards 2030 targets. Safety data are required to support a recommendation to undertake co-administration.

METHODOLOGY

We aimed to compile and summarize existing data on co-administration of ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin, including both data on pharmacokinetic interactions and data from previous experimental and observational studies conducted in NTD-endemic populations. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, research and conference abstracts, gray literature, and national policy documents. We limited the publication language to English and used a search period from January 1st, 1995 through October 1st, 2022. Search terms were: azithromycin and ivermectin and albendazole, mass drug administration co-administration trials, integrated mass drug administration, mass drug administration safety, pharmacokinetic dynamics, and azithromycin and ivermectin and albendazole. We excluded papers if they did not include data on co-administration of azithromycin and both albendazole and ivermectin, or azithromycin with either albendazole or ivermectin alone.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 58 potentially relevant studies. Of these we identified 7 studies relevant to the research question and which met our inclusion criteria. Three papers analyzed pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic interactions. No study found evidence of clinically significant drug-drug interactions likely to impact safety or efficacy. Two papers and a conference presentation reported data on the safety of combinations of at least two of the drugs. A field study in Mali suggested the rates of adverse events were similar with combined or separate administration, but was underpowered. A further field study in Papua New Guinea used all three drugs as part of a four-drug regimen also including diethylcarbamazine; in this setting, co-administration appeared safe but there were issues with the consistency in how adverse events were recorded.

CONCLUSION

There are relatively limited data on the safety profile of co-administering ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin as an integrated regimen for NTDs. Despite the limited amount of data, available evidence suggests that such a strategy is safe with an absence of clinically important drug-drug interactions, no serious adverse events reported and little evidence for an increase in mild adverse events. Integrated MDA may be a viable strategy for national NTD programmes.

Safety of integrated mass drug administration of azithromycin, albendazole and ivermectin versus standard treatment regimens: a cluster-randomised trial in Ethiopia

Background

Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) programs require separate and distinct drug regimens for treatment. This has required countries to undertake multiple independent mass drug administration (MDA) programmes, each targeting one or more diseases. The possibility of safely combining different drug regimens together in one MDA may offer several advantages to national programs. We conducted a study to assess the safety of combining ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin in one integrated MDA.

Methods

We conducted an open-label, non-inferiority cluster-randomised trial comparing the frequency of adverse events in communities receiving co-administered ivermectin, albendazole and azithromycin to that in communities given albendazole and ivermectin MDA followed by azithromycin MDA after a two-week interval. The study took place in 58 gares (small administrative units) across two kebeles (sub-districts) in Kofele woreda (district) in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. We randomly assigned 29 gares to the combined treatment arm and 29 gares to the control arm. The study team revisited all individuals within 48 h and actively collected data on the occurrence of adverse events using a dedicated questionnaire and a pre-specified list of adverse events. The study team followed the same process in the control arm for the azithromycin distribution and again after the ivermectin plus albendazole distribution. Following this initial active surveillance, passive surveillance was undertaken for one week after the first visit. The primary outcome was the frequency of adverse events occurring following MDA. The study team determined that the safety of the combined MDA would be non-inferior to that of separate MDAs if the upper limit of the two-sided CI for the difference in rates was equal to or lower than 5%. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03570814.

Findings

The study took place from December 2021 to January 2022. The combined MDA arm consisted of 7292 individuals who were eligible to participate, of whom 7068 received all three medications. The separate MDA arm consisted of 6219 eligible individuals of whom 6211 received ivermectin and albendazole and 4611 received azithromycin two weeks later. Overall, adverse events were reported by 197 (1.2%) of individuals. The most commonly reported adverse events included headache, gastrointestinal disturbance and dizziness. There were no serious adverse events in either arm. The cluster-level mean frequency of reported adverse events varied markedly between clusters, ranging from 0.1 to 10.4%. The cluster-level mean frequency of adverse events was 1.4% in the combined MDA arm and 1.2% following ivermectin and albendazole MDA (absolute difference 0.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.6% to +1.1%). This met the pre-defined 1.5% non-inferiority margin. For the combined MDA comparison to the stand-alone azithromycin MDA the absolute difference was -0.4% (1.4 versus 1.8%, 95% CI -0.8 to +1.5) which also met the pre-specified non-inferiority margin.

Interpretation

This study is the largest of its kind to date and demonstrates that the safety of combined MDA of azithromycin, ivermectin and albendazole is non-inferior to the safety of ivermectin-plus-albendazole MDA then azithromycin MDA conducted separately although we may not have been powered to detect very small differences between arms. Co-administration of these three medicines is safe and feasible in this setting and allows national programs to develop new strategies for integrated MDA programs.

Funding

Ivermectin (Mectizan) was donated by the Mectizan Donation Program, albendazole was donated by GlaxoSmithKline, and azithromycin (Zithromax®) was donated by Pfizer via the International Trachoma Initiative (ITI). The trial was funded by ITI using operational research funds from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

When the Neighboring Village is Not Treated: Role of Geographic Proximity to Communities Not Receiving Mass Antibiotics for Trachoma

BACKGROUND

Mass administration of azithromycin is an established strategy for decreasing the prevalence of trachoma in endemic areas. However, nearby untreated communities could serve as a reservoir that may increase the chances of chlamydia reinfection in treated communities.

METHODS

As part of a cluster-randomized trial in Ethiopia, 60 communities were randomized to receive mass azithromycin distributions and 12 communities were randomized to no treatments until after the first year. Ocular chlamydia was assessed from a random sample of children per community at baseline and month 12. Distances between treated and untreated communities were assessed from global positioning system coordinates collected for the study.

RESULTS

The pretreatment prevalence of ocular chlamydia among 0 to 9 year olds was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39%-47%), which decreased to 11% (95% CI, 9%-14%) at the 12-month visit. The posttreatment prevalence of chlamydia was significantly higher in communities that were closer to an untreated community after adjusting for baseline prevalence and the number of mass treatments during the year (odds ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.03-1.22] for each 1 km closer to an untreated community).

CONCLUSIONS

Mass azithromycin distributions to wide, contiguous geographic areas may reduce the likelihood of continued ocular chlamydia infection in the setting of mass antibiotic treatments.

Effect of Azithromycin on the Ocular Surface Microbiome of Children in a High Prevalence Trachoma Area

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 4 times per year mass azithromycin distributions on the ocular surface microbiome of children in a trachoma endemic area.

METHODS

In this cluster-randomized controlled trial, children aged 1 to 10 years in rural communities in the Goncha Seso Enesie district of Ethiopia were randomized to either no treatment or treatment with a single dose of oral azithromycin (height-based dosing to approximate 20 mg/kg) every 3 months for 1 year. Post hoc analysis of ocular surface Chlamydia trachomatis load, microbial community diversity, and macrolide resistance determinants was performed to evaluate differences between treatment arms.

RESULTS

One thousand two hundred fifty-five children from 24 communities were included in the study. The mean azithromycin coverage in the treated communities was 80% (95% CI: 73%-86%). The average age was 5 years (95% CI: 4-5). Ocular surface C. trachomatis load was reduced in children treated with the 4 times per year azithromycin ( P = 0.0003). Neisseria gonorrhoeae , Neisseria lactamica , and Neisseria meningitidis were more abundant in the no-treatment arm compared with the treated arm. The macrolide resistance gene ermB was not different between arms ( P = 0.63), but mefA / E was increased ( P = 0.04) in the azithromycin-treated arm.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a reduction in the load of C. trachomatis and 3 Neisseria species in communities treated with azithromycin. These benefits came at the cost of selection for macrolide resistance.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The International Trachoma Initiative (ITI) provides azithromycin for mass drug administration (MDA) to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Azithromycin is given as tablets for adults and powder for oral suspension (POS) is recommended for children aged <7 y, children <120 cm in height (regardless of age) or anyone who reports difficulty in swallowing tablets. An observational assessment of MDA for trachoma was conducted to determine the frequency with which children aged 6 mo through 14 y received the recommended dose and form of azithromycin according to current dosing guidelines and to assess risk factors for choking and adverse swallowing events (ASEs).

Methods

MDA was observed in three regions of Ethiopia and data were collected on azithromycin administration and ASEs.

Results

A total of 6477 azithromycin administrations were observed; 97.9% of children received the exact recommended dose. Of children aged 6 mo to <7 y or <120 cm in height, 99.6% received POS. One child experienced choking and 132 (2%) experienced ≥1 ASEs. Factors significantly associated with ASEs included age 6–11 mo or 1–6 y, non-calm demeanor and requiring coaxing prior to drug administration.

Conclusions

There is a high level of adherence to the revised azithromycin dosing guidelines and low incidence of choking and ASEs.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of modelling to modify trachoma elimination strategies affected by the COVID-19 pandemic

Models predict that the negative effects of delayed implementation in trachoma elimination programmes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will be minimal, except in high prevalence districts where progress may be reversed. During times of change we must stand by our principles of evidence-based decision-making, but also be willing to show flexibility. Slow progress to elimination in high prevalence districts was already a significant challenge to the global programme and mitigation of COVID-related delays with enhanced implementation provides an opportunity to simultaneously address an unprecedented challenge and a pre-existing one.

Rethinking disease eradication: putting countries first

There have been various infectious disease eradication programs implemented in various parts of the world with varying degrees of success since the early 1900s. Of all those programs, the one that achieved monumental success was the Smallpox Eradication Program (SEP). Most of the global health leaders and authorities that came up with the new idea of disease eradication in the 1980s tried to design and shape the new programs based on their experience in the SEP. The SEP had a very effective tool, vaccine, that did not require a cold chain system, and a relatively simple way of administration. The total cost of the eradication program was about US$300 million and the entire campaign took about 10 y. However, the Guinea worm and polio eradication programs that followed in the footsteps of SEP attained varying levels of success, consuming a huge amount of resources and taking a much longer time (>30 y each). This paper reviews the factors that played major roles in hindering the attainment of eradication goals and outlines possible recommendations for the way forward. Among other things, this paper strongly emphasizes that endemic countries should take the lead in all matters pertaining to making decisions for disease elimination and/or eradication initiatives and that 'elimination as a public health problem' is the preferred option rather than going for complete eradication at the expense of other health programs and thereby contributing to weakening of already fragile health systems, mainly in Africa.

Determinants of soil-transmitted helminth infections among pre-school-aged children in Gamo Gofa zone, Southern Ethiopia: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Pre-school aged children (PSAC) are highly affected by soil-transmitted helminths (STH), particularly in areas where water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are inadequate. Context-specific evidence on determinants of STH infections in PSAC has not been well established in the study area. This study, therefore, aimed to fill these gaps in Gamo Gofa zone, Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based unmatched case-control study, nested in a cross-sectional survey, was conducted in January 2019. Cases and controls were identified based on any STH infection status using the Kato-Katz technique in stool sample examination. Data on social, demographic, economic, behavioral, and WASH related variables were collected from primary caregivers of children using pre-tested questionnaire. Determinants of STH infections were identified using multivariable logistic regression model using SPSS version 25.

RESULTS

A total of 1206 PSAC (402 cases and 804 controls) participated in this study. Our study showed that the odds of STH infection were lowest among PSAC living in urban areas (AOR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.39-0.79), among those from households with safe water source (AOR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47-0.0.93), and in those PSAC from households with shorter distance from water source (<30 minutes) (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.39-0.67). On the other hand, the odds of STH infection were highest among PSAC from households that had no functional hand washing facility (AOR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.04-1.77), in those PSAC from households that had unclean latrine (AOR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.19-2.78), and among those PSAC under caregivers who had lower score (≤5) on knowledge related to STH transmission (AOR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.13-3.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Given efforts required eliminating STH by 2030; the existing preventive chemotherapy intervention should be substantially strengthened with WASH and behavioral interventions. Thus, an urgent call for action is required to integrate context-specific interventions, particularly in rural areas.

Frequency of Mass Azithromycin Distribution for Ocular Chlamydia in a Trachoma Endemic Region of Ethiopia: A Cluster Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

Annual mass azithromycin distribution significantly reduces the prevalence of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis, the causative organism of trachoma. However, in some areas a decade or more of treatment has not controlled infection. Here, we compared multiple treatment arms from a community-randomized trial to evaluate whether increasing frequency of azithromycin distribution decreases prevalence in the short term.

METHODS

Seventy-two communities in Goncha Siso Enesie woreda in the Amhara region of Northern Ethiopia were randomized to 1 of 6 azithromycin distribution strategies: (1) delayed, (2) annual, (3) biannual, (4) quarterly to children only, (5) biennial, or (6) biennial plus latrine promotion. We analyzed data from the 60 communities in the delayed, annual, biannual, quarterly, and biennial distribution arms at the 12-month study visit. Communities in the annual and biennial distribution arm were combined, as they each had a single distribution before any 12-month retreatment. We assessed the effect of increased frequency of azithromycin distribution on ocular chlamydia prevalence.

RESULTS

Ocular chlamydia prevalence was significantly different across azithromycin distribution frequency in children (P < .0001) and adults (P < .0001), with lower prevalence associated with higher frequency. Among children, quarterly azithromycin distribution led to a significantly greater reduction in ocular chlamydia prevalence than the World Health Organization-recommended annual treatment prevalence (mean difference -11.4%, 95% confidence interval -19.5 to -3.3%, P = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased frequency of azithromycin distribution leads to decreased ocular chlamydia prevalence over a short-term period. In some regions with high levels of ocular chlamydia prevalence, additional azithromycin distributions may help achieve local elimination of infection.

Mass Azithromycin Distribution to Prevent Childhood Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of Cluster-Randomized Trials

Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin may reduce under-5 child mortality (U5M) in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we conducted a pooled analysis of all published cluster-randomized trials evaluating the effect of azithromycin MDA on child mortality. We pooled data from cluster-randomized trials randomizing communities to azithromycin MDA versus control. We calculated mortality rates in the azithromycin and control arms in each study, and by country for multisite studies including multiple countries. We conducted a two-stage individual community data meta-analysis to estimate the effect of azithromycin for prevention of child mortality. Three randomized controlled trials in four countries (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania) were identified. The overall pooled mortality rate was 15.9 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.5–16.3). The pooled mortality rate was lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo-treated communities (14.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 14.2–15.3 versus 17.2 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 16.5–17.8). There was a 14.4% reduction in all-cause child mortality in communities receiving azithromycin MDA (95% CI: 6.3–21.7% reduction, P = 0.0007). All-cause U5M was lower in communities receiving azithromycin MDA than in control communities, suggesting that azithromycin MDA could be a new tool to reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. However, heterogeneity in effect estimates suggests that the magnitude of the effect may vary in time and space and is currently not predictable.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A socio-ecological analysis of barriers to the adoption, sustainablity and consistent use of sanitation facilities in rural Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Despite evidence showing that access to and use of improved sanitation is associated with healthier households and communities, barriers influencing the adoption and sustainablity of sanitation facilities remain unclear. We conducted a qualitative case study to explore barriers influencing the adoption, sustainablity and consistent use of sanitation facilities in rural Ethiopia.

METHODS

A qualitative study was conducted in the rural district of Becho, in central Ethiopia, from June to August 2016. A socio-ecological model and Integrated Behavioural Model (IBM) for a Water Hygiene and Sanitation (WASH) framework were employed to design the study and analyse data. A total of 10 in-depth interviews (IDI) were conducted with latrine adopters (n = 3), latrine non-adopters (n = 3), health extension workers (n = 3) and the district WASH coordinator (n = 1). Eight Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were undertaken with 75 participants, of which 31 were women. The FGDs and IDIs were tape-recorded, transcribed verbatim and translated into English. The analysis was supported using Nvivo version 10 software.

RESULTS

Barriers to sustained adoption and use of sanitation facilities were categorized into 1) individual level factors (e.g., past latrine experience, lack of demand and perceived high cost to improved latrines), 2) household level factors (e.g., unaffordability, lack of space and absence of a physically strong family member), 3) community level factors (e.g., lack of access to public latrines, lack of shared rules against open defecation, lack of financial access for the poor), and 4) societal level factors (e.g., lack of strong local leadership, flooding, soil conditions, lack of appropriate sanitation technology, lack of promotion and demand creation for improved latrines).

CONCLUSION

The use of the socio-ecological model and IBM-WASH framework helped to achieve a better understanding of multi-level and multi-dimensional barriers to sustained latrine adoption. The results indicate that there is a need to consider interventions that address multi-level factors concurrently.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Background

In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years.

Methods

GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling.

Results

The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4–4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230–797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3–61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8–2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76–4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12–0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period.

Conclusions

Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (Dalys) for Common Neglected Tropical Diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: Evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

INTRODUCTION

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are important public health problems in Ethiopia. In 2013, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has launched a national NTD master plan to eliminate major NTDs of public health importance by 2020. Benchmarking the current status of NTDs in the country is important to monitor and evaluate the progress in the implementation of interventions and their impacts. Therefore, this study aims to assess the trends of mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALY) for the priority NTDs over the last 25 years.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 estimates for this study. The GBD 2015 data source for cause of death and DALY estimation included verbal autopsy (VA), Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and other disease specific surveys, Ministry of Health reports submitted to United Nations (UN) agencies and published scientific articles. Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) and/or natural history models were used to estimate NTDs mortality rates. DALY were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD).

RESULTS

All NTDs caused an estimated of 6,293 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3699-10,080) in 1990 and 3,593 deaths (95% UI: 2051 - 6178) in 2015, a 43% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rates due to schistosomiasis, STH and leshmaniasis have declined by 91.3%, 73.5% and 21.6% respectively between 1990 to 2015. The number of DALYs due to all NTDs has declined from 814.4 thousand (95% UI: 548 thousand-1.2million) in 1990 to 579.5 thousand (95%UI: 309.4 thousand-1.3 million) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates due to all NTDs declined by 30.7%, from 17.6 per 1000(95%UI: 12.5-26.5) in 1990 to 12.2 per 1000(95%UI: 6.5 - 27.4) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rate for trachoma declined from 92.7 per 100,000(95% UI: 63.2 - 128.4) in 1990 to 41.2 per 100,000(95%UI: 27.4-59.2) in 2015, a 55.6% reduction between 1990 and 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates for onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and lymphiaticfilariasis decreased by 66.2%, 29.4% and 12.5% respectively between 1990 and 2015. DALY rate for ascariasis fell by 56.8% over the past 25 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates for most of the NTDs over the last 25 years. The rapid scale of interventions and broader system strengthening may have a lasting impact on achieving the 2020 goal of elimination of most of NTDs. Ethiopia should strengthen the coverage of integrated interventions of NTD through proper coordination with other health programs and sectors and community participation to eliminate NTDs by 2020.

The National Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis from Ethiopia

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the most debilitating and disfiguring diseases common in Ethiopia and is caused by Wuchereria bancrofti. Mapping for LF has shown that 70 woredas (districts) are endemic and 5.9 million people are estimated to be at risk. The national government's LF elimination programme commenced in 2009 in 5 districts integrated with the onchocerciasis programme. The programme developed gradually and has shown significant progress over the past 6 years, reaching 100% geographical coverage for mass drug administration (MDA) by 2016. To comply with the global LF elimination goals an integrated morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) guideline and a burden assessment programme has also been developed; MMDP protocols and a hydrocoele surgical handbook produced for country-wide use. In Ethiopia, almost all LF endemic districts are co-endemic with malaria and vector control aspects of the activities are conducted in the context of malaria programme as the vectors for both diseases are mosquitoes. In order to monitor the elimination, 11 sentinel and spot-check sites have been established and baseline information has been collected. Although significant achievements have been achieved in the scale up of the LF elimination programme, there is still a need to strengthen operational research to generate programme-relevant evidence, to increase access to morbidity management services, and to improve monitoring and evaluation of the LF programme. However, the current status of implementation of the LF national programme indicates that Ethiopia is poised to achieve the 2020 goal of elimination of LF. Nevertheless, to achieve this goal, high and sustained treatment coverage and strong monitoring and evaluation of the programme are essential.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Serotypes Before and After Mass Azithromycin Distributions for Trachoma

Twenty-four Ethiopian communities were randomized to receive either (1) quarterly mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma for 1 year or (2) delayed treatment. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from separate cross-sectional population-based samples of children were processed for Streptococcus pneumoniae Mass azithromycin did not significantly alter the pneumococcal serotype distribution, and hence it would not be expected to alter vaccine coverage.

The Global Trachoma Mapping Project: Methodology of a 34-Country Population-Based Study

Purpose: To complete the baseline trachoma map worldwide by conducting population-based surveys in an estimated 1238 suspected endemic districts of 34 countries.

Methods: A series of national and sub-national projects owned, managed and staffed by ministries of health, conduct house-to-house cluster random sample surveys in evaluation units, which generally correspond to “health district” size: populations of 100,000–250,000 people. In each evaluation unit, we invite all residents aged 1 year and older from h households in each of c clusters to be examined for clinical signs of trachoma, where h is the number of households that can be seen by 1 team in 1 day, and the product h × c is calculated to facilitate recruitment of 1019 children aged 1–9 years. In addition to individual-level demographic and clinical data, household-level water, sanitation and hygiene data are entered into the purpose-built LINKS application on Android smartphones, transmitted to the Cloud, and cleaned, analyzed and ministry-of-health-approved via a secure web-based portal. The main outcome measures are the evaluation unit-level prevalence of follicular trachoma in children aged 1–9 years, prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults aged 15 + years, percentage of households using safe methods for disposal of human feces, and percentage of households with proximate access to water for personal hygiene purposes.

Results: In the first year of fieldwork, 347 field teams commenced work in 21 projects in 7 countries.

Conclusion: With an approach that is innovative in design and scale, we aim to complete baseline mapping of trachoma throughout the world in 2015.

The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing

Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two areas of Ethiopia. These surveys were taken in a controlled setting, where infection was documented to be disappearing over time. For both sets of surveys, the geometric distribution had the most parsimonious fit of the distributions tested, and goodness-of-fit testing was consistent with the prevalence of each community being drawn from a geometric distribution. When infection is disappearing, the single sufficient parameter describing a geometric distribution captures much of the distributional information found from examining every community. The relatively heavy tail of the geometric suggests that the presence of an occasional high-prevalence community is to be expected, and does not necessarily reflect a transmission hot spot or program failure. A single cross-sectional survey can reveal which direction a program is heading. A geometric distribution of the prevalence of infection across communities may be an encouraging sign, consistent with a disease on its way to eradication.

Epilation for minor trachomatous trichiasis: four-year results of a randomised controlled trial

Background

Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) needs to be managed to reduce the risk of vision loss. The long-term impact of epilation (a common traditional practice of repeated plucking of lashes touching the eye) in preventing visual impairment and corneal opacity from TT is unknown. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of epilation versus surgery for the management of minor TT (fewer than six lashes touching the eye) in Ethiopia. Here we report the four-year outcome and the effect on vision and corneal opacity.

Methodology/ Principal Findings

1300 individuals with minor TT were recruited and randomly assigned to quality trichiasis surgery or repeated epilation using high quality epilation forceps by a trained person with good near vision. Participants were examined six-monthly for two-years, and then at four-years after randomisation. At two-years all epilation arm participants were offered free surgery. At four-years 1151 (88.5%) were re-examined: 572 (88%) and 579 (89%) from epilation and surgery arms, respectively. At that time, 21.1% of the surgery arm participants had recurrent TT; 189/572 (33%) of the epilation arm had received surgery, while 383 (67%) declined surgery and had continued epilating (“epilation-only”). Among the epilation-only group, 207 (54.1%) fully controlled their TT, 166 (43.3%) had minor TT and 10 (2.6%) had major TT (&gt;5 lashes). There were no differences between participants in the epilation-only, epilation-to-surgery and surgery arm participants in changes in visual acuity and corneal opacity between baseline and four-years.

Conclusions/ Significance

Most minor TT participants randomised to the epilation arm continued epilating and controlled their TT. Change in vision and corneal opacity was comparable between surgery and epilation-only participants. This suggests that good quality epilation with regular follow-up is a reasonable second-line alternative to surgery for minor TT for individuals who either decline surgery or do not have immediate access to surgical treatment.

Trachoma causes visual impairment through the effect of in-turned eyelashes (trichiasis) on the surface of the eye. Epilation is a common traditional practice of intermittent plucking of lashes touching the eye, however, its long-term effectiveness in preventing visual impairment is unknown. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of epilation versus eyelid surgery (the main treatment option) in 1300 people with mild trichiasis in Ethiopia. We defined mild trichiasis as fewer than six lashes touching the eye. We have previously reported results to two years and have now re-assessed these individuals at four years. Overall, we found no difference between the epilation and surgery groups in terms of change in vision and corneal opacity between baseline and four years. Most mild trichiasis participants randomised to the epilation arm continued epilating and controlled their trichiasis. This suggests that good quality epilation is a reasonable second-line alternative to surgery for mild trichiasis for individuals who either decline surgery or do not have immediate access to surgical treatment.

Evidence for clonal expansion after antibiotic selection pressure: pneumococcal multilocus sequence types before and after mass azithromycin treatments

BACKGROUND

A clinical trial of mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma created a convenient experiment to test the hypothesis that antibiotic use selects for clonal expansion of preexisting resistant bacterial strains.

METHODS

Twelve communities in Ethiopia received mass azithromycin distributions every 3 months for 1 year. A random sample of 10 children aged 0-9 years from each community was monitored by means of nasopharyngeal swab sampling before mass azithromycin distribution and after 4 mass treatments. Swab specimens were tested for Streptococcus pneumoniae, and isolates underwent multilocus sequence typing.

RESULTS

Of 82 pneumococcal isolates identified before treatment, 4 (5%) exhibited azithromycin resistance, representing 3 different sequence types (STs): 177, 6449, and 6494. The proportion of isolates that were classified as one of these 3 STs and were resistant to azithromycin increased after 4 mass azithromycin treatments (14 of 96 isolates [15%]; P = .04). Using a classification index, we found evidence for a relationship between ST and macrolide resistance after mass treatments (P < .0001). The diversity of STs-as calculated by the unbiased Simpson index-decreased significantly after mass azithromycin treatment (P = .045).

CONCLUSIONS

Resistant clones present before mass azithromycin treatments increased in frequency after treatment, consistent with the theory that antibiotic selection pressure results in clonal expansion of existing resistant strains.

Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020: a call for rapid scale-up and strengthening programmes

Elimination of blinding trachoma is targeted for the year 2020, making scale-up extremely urgent. Preferred practices have been developed for mass drug administration and trichiasis surgery to assist new countries and districts. However, these need to be utilised on a broader scale to ensure quality output of programmes and the highest coverage possible of their implementation. Although in recent years there has been a significant increase in programmatic funding, there are still gaps. In addition, continued insecurity in several regions and outbreaks that require refocusing of staff threaten the goal. Close partnerships and collaboration enable the trachoma community to be well on track to reaching the goal, but it cannot be business as usual to achieve this.

Prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level in ethiopia: determining when to stop mass azithromycin distribution

Background

To eliminate blinding trachoma, the World Health Organization emphasizes implementing the SAFE strategy, which includes annual mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin to the whole population of endemic districts. Prevalence surveys to assess impact at the district level are recommended after at least 3 years of intervention. The decision to stop MDA is based on a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) among children aged 1–9 years below 5% at the sub-district level, as determined by an additional round of surveys limited within districts where TF prevalence is below 10%. We conducted impact surveys powered to estimate prevalence simultaneously at the sub-district and district in two zones of Amhara, Ethiopia to determine whether MDA could be stopped.

Methodology

Seventy-two separate population-based, sub-district surveys were conducted in 25 districts. In each survey all residents from 10 randomly selected clusters were screened for clinical signs of trachoma. Data were weighted according to selection probabilities and adjusted for correlation due to clustering.

Principal Findings

Overall, 89,735 residents were registered from 21,327 households of whom 72,452 people (80.7%) were examined. The prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years was below 5% in six sub-districts and two districts. Sub-district level prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years ranged from 0.9–76.9% and district-level from 0.9–67.0%. In only one district was the prevalence of trichiasis below 0.1%.

Conclusions/Significance

The experience from these zones in Ethiopia demonstrates that impact assessments designed to give a prevalence estimate of TF at sub-district level are possible, although the scale of the work was challenging. Given the assessed district-level prevalence of TF, sub-district-level surveys would have been warranted in only five districts. Interpretation was not as simple as stopping MDA in sub-districts below 5% given programmatic challenges of exempting sub-districts from a highly regarded program and the proximity of hyper-endemic sub-districts.

Trachoma, the leading cause of preventable blindness, is targeted for “elimination as a public health problem” by the year 2020. National programs are implementing the recommended strategy of surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvements (SAFE) to meet this target. Many programs are currently facing the decision of when to scale down interventions, particularly mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin. We implemented large population-based surveys in two different zones of the Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia. Rather than conducting an impact assessment first at the district level, followed by additional sub-district-level surveys, we took a novel approach to measure the prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level to be able to make an immediate decision of whether to stop MDA. Over 72,000 people in 714 communities in 72 sub-districts were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. We identified only six sub-districts that met criteria for being able to stop MDA. Our work demonstrates that determining the prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level is feasible but requires significant resources. In this hyper-endemic setting, sub-district-level surveys were not needed in the majority of districts. Overall, the clinical data suggest some decline in trachoma within these areas since the SAFE strategy was implemented.

Estimation of insecticide persistence, biological activity and mosquito resistance to PermaNet® 2 long-lasting insecticidal nets over three to 32 months of use in Ethiopia

Background

Information is needed on the expected durability of insecticidal nets under operational conditions. The persistence of insecticidal efficacy is important to estimate the median serviceable life of nets under field conditions and to plan for net replacement.

Methods

Deltamethrin residue levels were evaluated by the proxy method of X-ray fluorescence spectrometry on 189 nets used for three to six months from nine sites, 220 nets used for 14-20 months from 11 sites, and 200 nets used for 26-32 months from ten sites in Ethiopia. A random sample of 16.5-20% of nets from each time period (total 112 of 609 nets) were tested by bioassay with susceptible mosquitoes, and nets used for 14-20 months and 26-32 months were also tested with wild caught mosquitoes.

Results

Mean insecticide levels estimated by X-ray fluorescence declined by 25.9% from baseline of 66.2 (SD 14.6) mg/m² at three to six months to 44.1 (SD 21.2) mg/m² at 14-20 months and by 30.8% to 41.1 (SD 18.9) mg/m² at 26-32 months. More than 95% of nets retained greater than 10 mg/m2 of deltamethrin and over 79% had at least 25 mg/m2 at all time periods. By bioassay with susceptible Anopheles, mortality averaged 89.0% on 28 nets tested at three to six months, 93.3% on 44 nets at 14-20 months and 94.1% on 40 nets at 26-32 months. With wild caught mosquitoes, mortality averaged 85.4% (range 79.1 to 91.7%) at 14-20 months but had dropped significantly to 47.2% (39.8 to 54.7%) at 26-32 months.

Conclusions

Insecticide residue level, as estimated by X-ray fluorescence, declined by about one third between three and six months and 14-20 months, but remained relatively stable and above minimum requirements thereafter up to 26-32 months. The insecticidal activity of PermaNet® 2.0 long-lasting insecticidal nets in the specified study area may be considered effective to susceptible mosquitoes at least for the duration indicated in this study (32 months). However, results indicated that resistance in the wild population is already rendering nets with optimum insecticide concentrations less effective in practice.

Evaluation of household latrine coverage in Kewot woreda, Ethiopia, 3 years after implementing interventions to control blinding trachoma

The SAFE strategy for trachoma control includes Surgery, Antibiotic distribution, Facial cleanliness and Environmental improvements, including promotion of latrine construction. In this study, household latrine coverage was estimated in order to evaluate SAFE implementation in a district of Ethiopia where reported coverage in rural areas was 97%. Characteristics of latrine adopters and non-adopters were explored. Interviews were conducted in 442 households selected at random in a multistage cluster sample. Overall, estimated household latrine coverage was 56.2% (95% CI 37.5-74.8%) and in rural areas coverage was 67.7% (95% CI 59.6-75.7%). Previously owning a latrine was reported by 12.7% (95% CI 8.9-16.5%) of respondents, of which 32.0% (95% CI 15.9-48.2%) had built a replacement. Latrine adopters were more likely to be male (P < 0.0001), to report their primary occupation as agriculture (P < 0.0001), have more than five residents in their household (P = 0.004) and live in a rural area (P < 0.0001). Respondents who were advised by a health extension worker (P < 0.0001) or development agent (P < 0.0001) were more likely to have built a latrine. Household latrine coverage has increased from the 2007 zonal estimate (8.9%), but was lower than that reported. Latrine promotion should include emphasis on rebuilding latrines. More support may be needed by small households as well as those with a female head if universal latrine access is to be achieved in Kewot.

Association of community antibiotic consumption with clinically active trachoma in rural Ethiopia

Community antibiotic utilization and its relationship with trachoma has been poorly characterized in areas with endemic trachoma. A survey of all drug-dispensing facilities in an area of rural Ethiopia was conducted. Antibiotic use was calculated using both retrospective and prospective methodology, and expressed as defined daily doses (DDDs). Overall antibiotic consumption estimates ranged from 2.91 to 3.07 DDDs per 1000 person days. Macrolide antibiotics accounted for 0.01 to 0.02 DDDs per 1000 person days. Each additional DDD of antibiotic use per 1000 person days was associated with a 15.0% (95% CI -19.7 to -10.3) decrease in the prevalence of clinically active trachoma among children under 10 years of age after adjusting for age, gender, altitude and the distance to nearest town. Increased background community antibiotic use may therefore be an aspect of socioeconomic development that can partially explain why trachoma prevalence has decreased in some areas in the absence of a trachoma program. The low volume of macrolide consumption in this area suggests that selection for nasopharyngeal pneumococcal macrolide resistance after mass azithromycin treatments likely has little clinical significance.

Efficacy of latrine promotion on emergence of infection with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis after mass antibiotic treatment: a cluster-randomized trial

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends environmental improvements such as latrine construction in the integrated trachoma control strategy, SAFE. We report a cluster-randomized trial assessing the effect of intensive latrine promotion on emergence of infection with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis after mass treatment with antibiotics.Twenty-four communities in Goncha Seso Enesie woreda, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia, were enumerated, and a random selection of 60 children aged 0- 9 years in each was monitored for clinical signs of trachoma and ocular chlamydial infection at baseline, 12 and 24 months. All community members were offered treatment with a single dose of oral azithromycin or topical tetracycline. After treatment, 12 subkebeles were randomized to receive intensive latrine promotion. Mean cluster ocular infection in the latrine and the non-latrine arms were reduced from 45.5% (95% CI 34.1-56.8%) and 43.0% (95% CI 31.1-54.8%) respectively at baseline to 14.6% (95% CI 7.4-21.8%) and 14.8% (95% CI 8.9-20.8%) respectively at 24 months (P=0.93). Clinical signs fell from 72.0% (95% CI 58.2-85.5%) and 61.3% (95% CI 44.0-78.5%) at baseline to 45.8% (36.0-55.6%) and 48.5% (34.0-62.9%) respectively at 24 months (P=0.69). At 24 months, estimated household latrine coverage and use were 80.8% and 61.7% respectively where there had been intensive latrine promotion and 30.0% and 25.0% respectively in the single treatment only arm. We were unable to detect a difference in the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in children due to latrine construction.

The association between latrine use and trachoma: a secondary cohort analysis from a randomized clinical trial

Latrine use has been promoted as a component of an integrated strategy for trachoma control. As part of a randomized trial in Ethiopia, 12 communities received a mass azithromycin distribution followed by a latrine promotion intervention. A random sample of children ages 0-9 years in each community was monitored longitudinally for ocular chlamydia. After latrine construction ended, those communities with a higher proportion of households using latrines were more likely to experience a reduction in the prevalence of ocular chlamydia. Specifically, for each 10% increase in latrine use, there was a 2.0% decrease (95% confidence interval = 0.2-3.9% decrease) in the community prevalence of ocular chlamydia over the subsequent year (P = 0.04).

The outcome of trachomatous trichiasis surgery in Ethiopia: risk factors for recurrence

Background

Over 1.2 million people are blind from trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Lid rotation surgery is the mainstay of treatment, but recurrence rates can be high. We investigated the outcomes (recurrence rates and other complications) of posterior lamellar tarsal rotation (PLTR) surgery, one of the two most widely practised TT procedures in endemic settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a two-year follow-up study of 1300 participants who had PLTR surgery, conducted by one of five TT nurse surgeons. None had previously undergone TT surgery. All participants received a detailed trachoma eye examination at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months post-operatively. The study investigated the recurrence rates, other complications and factors associated with recurrence. Recurrence occurred in 207/635 (32.6%) and 108/641 (16.9%) of participants with pre-operative major (>5 trichiatic lashes) and minor (<5 lashes) TT respectively. Of the 315 recurrences, 42/315 (3.3% overall) had >5 lashes (major recurrence). Recurrence was greatest in the first six months after surgery: 172 cases (55%) occurring in this period. Recurrence was associated with major TT pre-operatively (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.83–3.11), pre-operative entropic lashes compared to misdirected/metaplastic lashes (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.23–3.20), age over 40 years (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14–2.20) and specific surgeons (surgeon recurrence risk range: 18%–53%). Granuloma occurred in 69 (5.7%) and notching in 156 (13.0%).

Conclusions/Significance

Risk of recurrence is high despite high volume, highly trained surgeons. However, the vast majority are minor recurrences, which may not have significant corneal or visual consequences. Inter-surgeon variation in recurrence is concerning; surgical technique, training and immediate post-operative lid position require further investigation.

Trachoma is the most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide. It causes trichiasis (inturning of the eyelashes to touch the eye), which can cause visual loss. Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) affects over eight million people, 1.2 of whom live in Ethiopia – the most affected country worldwide. Surgery is the mainstay of treatment for TT. However, results of surgery in the field are often very mixed. We investigated the surgical outcomes of one of the two most widely used surgical techniques (posterior lamellar rotation), in 1300 individuals in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We found that recurrence occurred frequently: 315/1276 (24.7%) participants. However, recurrence was rarely severe (greater than 5 lashes): 42 participants (3.3%). Recurrence occurred much more frequently in participants who had severe pre-operative disease and with specific surgeons. The high recurrence rates and inter-surgeon variation is concerning. Further research will be required to investigate factors such as surgical technique, surgeon training and immediate post-operative lid position, in order to improve surgical outcomes.

Physical durability of PermaNet 2.0 long-lasting insecticidal nets over three to 32 months of use in Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia scaled up net distribution markedly starting in 2006. Information on expected net life under field conditions (physical durability and persistence of insecticidal activity) is needed to improve planning for net replacement. Standardization of physical durability assessment methods is lacking.

Methods

Permanet®2.0 long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs), available for distribution in early 2007, were collected from households at three time intervals. The number, size and location of holes were recorded for 189 nets used for three to six months from nine sites (2007) and 220 nets used for 14 to 20 months from 11 sites (2008). In 2009, a “finger/fist” sizing method classified holes in 200 nets used for 26 to 32 months from ten sites into small (<2 cm), medium (> = 2 to < =10 cm) and large (>10 cm) sizes. A proportionate hole index based on both hole number and area was derived from these size classifications.

Results

After three to six months, 54.5% (95% CI 47.1-61.7%) of 189 LLINs had at least one hole 0.5 cm (in the longest axis) or larger; mean holes per net was 4.4 (SD 8.4), median was 1.0 (Inter Quartile Range [IQR] 0–5) and median size was 1 cm (IQR 1–2). At 14 to 20 months, 85.5% (95% CI 80.1-89.8%) of 220 nets had at least one hole with mean 29.1 (SD 50.1) and median 12 (IQR 3–36.5) holes per net, and median size of 1 cm (IQR 1–2). At 26 to 32 months, 92.5% of 200 nets had at least one hole with a mean of 62.2 (SD 205.4) and median of 23 (IQR 6–55.5) holes per net. The mean hole index was 24.3, 169.1 and 352.8 at the three time periods respectively. Repairs were rarely observed. The majority of holes were in the lower half of the net walls. The proportion of nets in ‘poor’ condition (hole index >300) increased from 0% at three to six months to 30% at 26 to 32 months.

Conclusions

Net damage began quickly: more than half the nets had holes by three to six months of use, with 40% of holes being larger than 2 cm. Holes continued to accumulate until 92.5% of nets had holes by 26 to 32 months of use. An almost complete lack of repairs shows the need for promoting proper use of nets and repairs, to increase LLIN longevity. Using the hole index, almost one third of the nets were classed as unusable and ineffective after two and a half years of potential use.

Evaluation of community-based trichiasis surgery in Northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Surgery to correct trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is recommended to prevent blindness caused by trachoma. This study evaluated the outcomes of community-based trichiasis surgery with absorbable sutures, conducted in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A simple random sample of 431 patients was selected from surgical campaign records of which 363 (84.2%) were traced and enrolled into the study. Participants were interviewed and examined for trichiasis recurrence, complications of TT surgery and corneal opacity. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to explore the associations between trichiasis recurrence, corneal opacity and explanatory variables at the eye level.

RESULTS

The prevalence of trichiasis recurrence was 9.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 6.6-12.8) and corneal opacity was found in 14.3% (95% CI 10.9-18.3) of the study participants. The proportion of participants with complications of TT surgery was: granuloma 0.6% (95% CI 0.1-2.0); lid closure defects 5.5% (95% CI 3.4-8.4) and lid notching 16.8% (95% CI 13.1-21.1). No factors were identified for trichiasis recurrence. Corneal opacity was associated with increased age (Ptrend=0.001), more than 12 months post surgery (OR=2.7; 95%CI 1.3-5.6), trichiasis surgery complications (OR=2.9; 95%CI 1.4-5.9) and trichiasis recurrence (OR=2.5; 95%CI 1.0-6.3).

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of recurrent trichiasis and granuloma were lower than expected but higher for lid closure defects and lid notching. The majority of the participants reported satisfaction with the trichiasis surgery they had undergone. The findings suggest that recurrence of trichiasis impacts on the patients' risk of developing corneal opacity but longitudinal studies are required to confirm this.