Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence, Knowledge, Causes, and Practices of Self-Medication During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Introduction During the COVID-19 pandemic, self-medication (SM) has become a critical element in the healthcare system. SM can ease the burden on hospitals and medical resources by treating minor illnesses. However, inappropriate SM practices can lead to adverse drug reactions, drug resistance, and incorrect diagnoses, resulting in poor health outcomes. Methods To evaluate the prevalence, knowledge, causes, and practices of SM among the Bangladeshi population during the COVID-19 outbreak, a cross-sectional survey with structured questionnaires was conducted in Chittagong City, Bangladesh, from March to May 2022. The survey included 265 participants, with an average age of 35.09 years, and a multiple-choice questionnaire was used to gather information. Results The study found that 64.15% of the respondents had sufficient knowledge of SM, while 35.8% had insufficient knowledge. The primary reasons for SM during the pandemic were the influence of friends/family (90.74%), fear of infection or contact with COVID-19 cases (73.15%), and fear of quarantine or self-isolation (72.22%). Analgesics/pain relievers (84%) were the most commonly used drugs for SM for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. Antiulcerants/antacid (42%), vitamin C and multivitamins (42%), and antibiotics (32%) were also frequently used. Conclusion This study suggests that SM is prevalent among Chittagong City residents, particularly those with less than a tertiary education. The study highlights the importance of building awareness about SM practices and taking necessary steps to control them.

Unpacking COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes: Exploring Hesitancy and Acceptance Among Undergraduate Students in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Vaccine hesitancy is a significant global health concern, and mass vaccination is essential in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Undergraduate students need to be prioritized for vaccination as they continue their academic curriculum physically. However, limited research explores vaccine hesitancy and acceptance among undergraduate students in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study evaluated vaccine hesitancy and acceptance among this population.

METHOD

A web-based cross-sectional study was conducted between May and June 2021 using a structured questionnaire to assess COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and acceptance among undergraduate students in Bangladesh. The Oxford Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Scale was used to measure vaccine hesitancy. The study used convenient sampling.

RESULT

Across the country, 334 undergraduate students participated in this study on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, with a mean age of 22.4 years. Most participants were male and unmarried, most having spent four years at university. 89.52% of participants would accept a COVID-19 vaccine if it were suggested by educational institutions or available, while 4.49% refused to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Participants showed low levels of vaccine hesitancy, with a mean score of 10.77 on the Oxford COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Scale. Most participants had a positive attitude towards receiving the vaccine, with the majority wanting to get it as soon as it becomes available. No association was found between vaccine acceptance and participants' background characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Our study found a high level of vaccine acceptance among undergraduate students in Bangladesh, indicating that this group can be vaccinated quickly, significantly accelerating vaccination goals. However, further large-scale studies are recommended among vulnerable groups, including school and college students, to ensure vaccine preparedness.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

The Changing Global Epidemiology of Re-emerging Human Monkeypox Virus Infection: A Systematic Review

Human monkeypox virus (MPVX) infection represents an emerging zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, resulting in a condition reminiscent of smallpox. More recent developments have witnessed a notable surge in global MPVX outbreaks, eliciting significant concerns. We aimed to investigate the epidemiological factors of the emerging human monkeypox virus infection, including the number of suspected, confirmed, and fatal cases, as well as the risk factors for contracting monkeypox infection. We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. An electronic database search (PubMed, Wiley Online Library, and Science Direct) was undertaken. For monkeypox-related studies, we included 25 peer-reviewed articles from 2018 and 2022, and data were extracted on the current evidence on the cases and the risk factors for MPVX infection, to develop public health advisories. Our reports show a rapid rise of MPVX cases in the highly endemic African regions after the 1970s, spread to other countries, and an increase in the median age from young children to young adults. The cessation of smallpox vaccination might have been one of the factors responsible for these findings. As of 2022, the genomic sequences of ten MPVX strains associated with the recent countrywide outbreak have been determined. While the West African Clade has been primarily implicated in the recent viral surge, data were insufficient to determine which mutation contributed to increased transmissibility. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), sleeping on the floor was significantly associated with contracting MPVX, while eating or processing of animal foods was not a significant risk factor. In the United States, cleaning the cages and bedding of sick animals, touching infected animals, and daily exposure to sick animals were associated with an increased probability of contracting the MPVX infection. Recent global outbreaks and the rising incidence of MPVX infections among young adults in the endemic zones might be a result of the cessation of the smallpox vaccine. The increased risk associated with exposure to sick animals or sleeping on the floor suggests high infectivity from animal excretions. Increasing awareness, strict surveillance, and contact tracing can help contain global outbreaks. The ring vaccination approach for exposed individuals is another potential disease containment strategy. Future studies should investigate measures for rapid laboratory diagnosis, maintaining lab safety, and transmissibility.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Large Chorioangioma in Triplets: An Uncommon Occurrence

A 25-year-old primigravida presented at 26 weeks of gestation by dates, the first time for the routine antenatal checkup. No histories were suggestive of pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) and edema. On physical examination, pallor was present with microcytic hypochromic anemia. Raised beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were present. Ultrasonography revealed triples with two thin echogenic intertwining membranes. Anomaly scan did not reveal any abnormality in fetuses. The placenta showed a large oval hypoechoic mass arising from its edge and bulge into the amniotic fluid. A central feeding vessel with a branching pattern and pulsatile color flow like that of the umbilical artery is noted on the color Doppler. She was spontaneously preterm delivered vaginally at 28 weeks of gestation. All three fetuses were stillborn. Histopathological diagnosis of angiomatous chorioangioma was confirmed. This case classically represents a grave complication of the large chorioangioma.

Stroke Strikes in Bangladesh: Current Insights and Future Directions

Stroke is a neurological condition attributable to vascular injury (e.g., infarction, hemorrhage) of the central nervous system. Globally, it ranks high among the leading causes of death. The poor stroke management system in Bangladesh is contributing to the country's rapid rise in stroke incidence. Stroke-related mortality and disability can be decreased by being aware of and taking steps to address potential risk factors. The population in this area has a generally poor understanding of strokes. Important avenues for preventing stroke in this population may include an effective public awareness campaign which includes spreading knowledge regarding early signs of stroke (facial drooping, arm weakness, speech difficulties, and time), the golden hour of stroke, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, the development of structured emergency medical care, appropriate rehabilitation, control of blood pressure and blood glucose, and cessation of smoking.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A Survey on Depressive Symptoms and Its Correlates Amongst Physicians in Bangladesh During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Aim

The aim of this study was to determine the presence of depressive symptoms and understand the potential factors associated with these symptoms among physicians in Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A cross-sectional study using an online survey was conducted in between April 21 and May 10, 2020, among physicians living in Bangladesh. Participants completed a series of demographic questions, COVID-19-related questions, and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Descriptive statistics (frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation), test statistics (chi-squared test and logistic regression) were performed to explore the association between physicians’ experience of depression symptoms and other study variables. Stepwise binary logistic regression was followed while conducting the multivariable analysis.

Result

A total of 390 physicians completed the survey. Of them, 283 (72.6%) were found to be experiencing depressive symptoms. Predictors which were significantly associated with depressive symptoms were gender (with females more likely to experience depression than males), the presence of sleep disturbance, being highly exposed to media coverage about the pandemic, and fear around (a) COVID-19 infection, (b) being assaulted/humiliated by regulatory forces and (c) by the general public, while traveling to and from the hospital and treating patients during the countrywide lockdown.

Conclusion

The findings of this study demonstrate that there is a high prevalence of depressive symptom among physicians especially among female physicians in Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic. Immediate, adequate and effective interventions addressing gender specific needs are required amid this ongoing crisis and beyond.

Integrated case-based clinical approach in understanding pathways, complexities, pitfalls and challenges in neurodegenerative disorders

INTRODUCTION

This paper presents 5 cases of neurodegenerative disorders from our tertiary care rural hospital in south India. The purpose of this paper is to generate an emerging common theme by thematic analysis of clinical data from each of these patients. A theme emerged, we identified that there was a common clinical ground in patients with movement disorders and psychiatric symptoms. From this common theme, these patients eventually went on to develop different courses of illnesses.

METHODOLOGY

Clinical analysis of a case series of 5 patients with neurodegenerative disorders attending the Medicine or Psychiatry services of our hospital.

CONCLUSION

A clear & consistent association between movement disorders and psychiatric symptoms was found. Although our data is limited, we conclude that movement disorders can be early clinical markers of organic psychopathology. However, we are aware that this association can be confounded by substance abuse, stress, sleep disruption and even therapeutic interventions, and thus these factors were accounted for and yet we conclude that movement disorders can be early clinical indictors of organic psychopathology.

Anxiety and depressive symptoms among physicians during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

Objectives

In addition to risking their physical well-being, frontline physicians are enduring significant emotional burden both at work and home during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aims to investigate the levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms and to identify associated factors among Bangladeshi physicians during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Methods and design

A cross-sectional study using an online survey following a convenience sampling technique was conducted between April 21 and May 10, 2020. Outcomes assessed included demographic questions, COVID-19 related questions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).

Results

The survey was completed by 412 Bangladeshi physicians. The findings revealed that, in terms of standardized HADS cut-off points, the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among physicians was 67.72% and 48.5% respectively. Risk factors for higher rates of anxiety or depressive symptoms were: being female, physicians who had experienced COVID-19 like symptoms during the pandemic, those who had not received incentives, those who used self-funded personal protective equipment (PPE), not received adequate training, lacking perceived self-efficacy to manage COVID-19 positive patients, greater perceived stress of being infected, fear of getting assaulted/humiliated, being more connected with social media, having lower income levels to support the family, feeling more agitated, less than 2 h of leisure activity per day and short sleep duration. All these factors were found to be positively associated with anxiety and depression in unadjusted and adjusted statistical models.

Conclusions

This study identifies a real concern about the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among Bangladeshi physicians and identifies several associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the vulnerability of the physicians in this extraordinary period whilst they are putting their own lives at risk to help people infected by COVID-19, health authorities should address the psychological needs of medical staff and formulate effective strategies to support vital frontline health workers.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Prevalence and Associated Factors of Depressive Symptoms Among Medical Students in Bangladesh During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Pilot Study

Background

Whilst very limited studies have demonstrated a correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and depressive symptoms amongst Bangladeshi medical students, the prevalence and associated factors of depressive symptoms as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) remains widely unknown.

Objective

The study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with depression symptoms among Bangladeshi medical students during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown period.

Method

In this web-based cross-sectional pilot study, medical students' data was collected using the Google Forms web survey platform after obtaining electronic informed consent. A total of 425 medical students were selected using a systematic sampling technique to accumulate depression symptoms and demographic and pandemic-related information. Depression was measured by a self-administered, validated English version of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) tool. The descriptive analysis utilized frequency and percentages, while the stepwise binary logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the factors associated with depressive symptoms.

Result

Among 425 medical students, 62.3% were female, 97.4% unmarried. Almost 80.2% of medical students had mild to severe levels of depressive symptoms as characterized by PHQ-9. A significantly higher probability of depression was found amongst female students (adjusted OR = 1.8), those who struggled to stay away from social media (adjusted OR = 1.8), those who tried to be optimistic for maintaining better psychology (adjusted OR = 11.1), and those who always had a sleeping difficulty in the last 4 weeks (adjusted OR = 8.9).

Conclusion

A very high prevalence of depression symptoms among Bangladeshi medical students was found across the majority of socio-demographic variables. The alarming prevalence and associated factors of depression suggests the need for follow-intensity psychosocial interventions designed for medical students during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Budd-Chiari syndrome in small hepatic veins: A diagnostic and therapeutic challenge in a low resource setting

Introduction

Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) is a rare condition affecting one in a million adults. BCS involves outflow obstruction in the hepatic venous system, which can occur anywhere between the small hepatic veins and the atrio-caval junction and cannot be due to heart, pericardial, or hepatic veno-occlusive disease.

Case Presentation

We report an exceedingly rare form of BCS with less common initial clinical features in a young poor adult male patient which ignited a diagnostic uncertainty and a therapeutic challenge. The presence of the classical triad of BCS in the absence of major hepatic vein obstruction prompted the medical team to consider that the patient had a rare form of BCS. In this case, the financial condition of the patient and limited resources available restricted our ability to advance into the specific investigations. However, the patient was given symptomatic medical treatment and was followed up monthly. We also provided the patient with a statement that reaffirmed our inability to provide affordable surgical management options and called for an optimized national clinical guideline that could help the physicians deal with the challenges.

Conclusion

An uncommon form of BCS in this patient provided a diagnostic challenge and therapeutic uncertainty in the low-resource settings. Primary care physicians should commence evidenced medical management based on clinical suspicion acknowledging the fact that obstruction of small hepatic veins is often not detected on an ultrasound.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immediate psychological responses during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic among Bangladeshi medical students

BACKGROUND

The most recent global pandemic of COVID-19 has been creating multidimensional damages, including a detrimental impact on the mental health status of individuals. Medical students, a vulnerable cross-section of the population, may have perceived a myriad of psychological stressors during this crisis in the background of their prevailing stressful academic pressure and preexisting higher psychological and mental health issue.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms and to elucidate the psychological impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Bangladeshi medical students.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study design was utilized to conduct this survey. The online survey including demographic questions, COVID-19 related questions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS; higher scores on the subscales indicate higher levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms), was completed by 425 Bangladeshi medical students. Collected data were statistically analyzed by using SPSS (version 25.0) software.

RESULT

The HADS anxiety subscale revealed that 65.9% of the medical students had different levels of anxiety, ranging from mild (27.3%), moderate (26.8%), and severe (11.8%). As per HADS depression subscale, 49.9% of the medical students had varying degrees of depressive symptoms, with 3.3% of the participants had suffered from severe depressive symptoms. Female students had a relatively more anxiety and depressive symptoms when compared with males. The students, who were severely tensed of getting infected by the virus, were at higher risk of suffering from anxiety (3.5-fold) and depressive (2.7-fold) symptoms, when compared with no/minimally stressed students. Besides, fear of getting assaulted or humiliated on the way to hospital or home, not to be able to give maximum concentration on study after COVID-19 pandemic, students' present emotional status (agitation), had statistically significant higher risk of anxiety.

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of Bangladeshi medical students are experiencing pandemic-related adverse psychological impact. Poor mental health conditions of these vulnerable medical students pose important threat to their potential contribution in future health care. Thus, medical colleges and health authorities should focus on addressing their psychological needs and formulate effective strategies to ameliorate medical students' mental health status, particularly during any infectious disease outbreak.

Willingness to work during initial lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic: Study based on an online survey among physicians of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

During the catastrophic situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of the health care workers (HCWs) is the most crucial, and their absenteeism, whether due to inability or unwillingness, becomes a major concern for the national health system. Hence, the present study aimed to determine the willingness and its associated factors to work during the COVID-19 pandemic among the physicians of Bangladesh.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted from April 21 to May 10, 2020, using an online survey among the Bangladeshi physicians living in the country. Both univariate and multivariable binary logistic regression models were used to determine the predictors of the willingness of the physicians to work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

More than 69% physicians reported that they were willing to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, 8.9% reported that they were not willing, while 21.4% of participants were not sure about their willingness. Younger age, having experience of treating patients during previous pandemics, working in the emergency departments and high self-reported compliance to the recommended PPE were important predictors of being willing to work during COVID-19 pandemic. Concern for family and risk of transmitting the infection to family members were most commonly reported as major barriers of working during the pandemic (30%) followed by having comorbidities (25%), lack of adequate safety measures (25%), fear of being infected (12.2%), not involved in clinical practice (12.5%) etc.

CONCLUSIONS

Though the majority of the physicians were willing to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, sufficient supply of PPE, support to maintain recommended quarantine and isolation policy after risky hospital duty along with adequate and effective training can increase their willingness to continue their sacred duty during this crucial pandemic.

War-Related Mental Health Issues and Need for Yoga Intervention Studies: A Scoping Review

Conflicts and humanitarian crises lead to serious mental health disorders, including depression, anxiety, stress, and cognitive decline. Exposure to these circumstances in early life can lead to the development of disorders such as mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease (AD), for which no treatments are available. In this review, various research papers have been compiled to develop an understanding about mental health of population affected due to wars and conflicts and how stress and depression can accelerate the development of dementia and AD. Due to failure of drugs in the treatment of dementia and AD, yoga and mindfulness-based approach has been proposed for future investigations. Although studies have shown that yoga and mindfulness can be helpful in the management of stress, anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder in the war-afflicted areas, limited mechanistic studies in yoga and mindfulness remain the chief cause precluding its clinical application in such warzones. The molecular studies in the field of yoga can be undertaken by targeting these warzones. This review provides a scientific evaluation of mind-body techniques as a justification for mental health rehabilitation in the war-afflicted zones in face of failed clinical trials for various drugs. This may help reduce the risk of developing dementia and AD in this susceptible population.

Prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among physicians during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

In addition to risking their physical well-being, frontline physicians are enduring significant emotional burden both at work and home during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate the levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms and to identify associated factors among Bangladeshi physicians during the COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS AND DESIGN

A cross-sectional study using an online survey was conducted between April 21 and May 10, 2020. Outcomes assessed included demographic questions, COVID-19 related questions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 412 Bangladeshi physicians. The findings revealed that, in terms of standardized HADS cut-off points, the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among physicians was 67.72% and 48.5% respectively. Risk factors for higher rates of anxiety or depressive symptoms were: being female, physicians who had experienced COVID-19 like symptoms during the pandemic, those who had not received incentives, those who used self-funded PPE, not received adequate training, lacking perceived self-efficacy to manage COVID -19 positive patients, greater perceived stress of being infected, fear of getting assaulted/humiliated, being more connected with social media, having lower income levels to support the family, feeling more agitated, less than 2 hours of leisure activity per day and short sleep duration. All these factors were found to be positively associated with anxiety and depression in unadjusted and adjusted statistical models.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies a real concern about the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among Bangladeshi physicians and identifies several associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the vulnerability of the physicians in this extraordinary period whilst they are putting their own lives at risk to help people infected by COVID-19, health authorities should address the psychological needs of medical staff and formulate effective strategies to support vital frontline health workers.

STHRENGHTS & LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

This study reports a novel and concerning findings on the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms with identification of several important associated factors among Bangladeshi physicians during the COVID-19 pandemic.The cross-sectional nature of the study design could not establish causal relationship between the dependent and independent variables.This study was carried out by conducting a web-based survey, which might generate sampling bias by excluding the physicians who do not have access to internet or inactive in social medias, and thus limit the generalizability of the findings.

Higher Perceived Stress and Poor Glycemic Changes in Prediabetics and Diabetics Among Indian Population

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic metabolic disorder with significant co-morbidities and healthcare burdens. Many large studies have investigated the association between perceived stress and DM; however, none investigated this in a larger Indian population. We hypothesized stress as one of the reasons for the progression of people with prediabetes into DM. The present study was, therefore, planned to report on associations between perceived stress and blood glucose markers stratified by diabetic status. The current descriptive study was a subset analysis of the nationwide cross-sectional survey, conducted in all Indian zones under the National Multicentric Diabetes Control Program. The study examined the perceived stress levels using a perceived stress scale (PSS-10) in people with prediabetes (n=649) and DM (n=485) and then segregated them into three categories (minimum, moderate, and severe). Blood glucose markers (fasting blood glucose, postprandial blood glucose, and HbA1c) were evaluated to report their association with the perceived stress. The study revealed a significantly higher HbA1c level in people with prediabetes, particularly those with severe perceived stress (6.12 ± 0.27) compared to other categories. Those with DM had a higher fasting blood glucose level, particularly with severe perceived stress (239.28 ± 99.52). An increased HbA1c level is noted in severely stressed people with prediabetes, requiring a comprehensive analysis with a longitudinal study of the role of perceived stress in the progression of prediabetes into DM. Additionally, higher fasting blood glucose levels in patients with DM and severe perceived stress suggests the need for establishing comprehensive diabetic care inclusive of stress management.

The Role of Dystrophin Gene Mutations in Neuropsychological Domains of DMD Boys: A Longitudinal Study

Background: Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is a fatal muscular dystrophy of pediatric population coupled with other secondary comorbidities including mental retardation and neuropsychological impairments. Mutation location in the dystrophin gene, have been associated with neuropsychological functioning in DMD.

Purpose: We investigated temporal changes in the neuropsychological functioning of DMD subjects, hitherto understudied.

Methods: Subjects with suspected DMD were enrolled according to the ethical guidelines. Genetic confirmation by Multiplex Ligation Dependent Probe Amplification was carried out to identify pathogenic deletion or duplication in dystrophin gene. Intellectual and neuropsychological functioning was assessed by using standardized batteries. Investigated neuropsychological domains included visual, verbal and working memory, selective and sustained attention, executive functioning, verbal fluency, and visuo-constructive and visuo-spatial abilities. The assessments were carried out at baseline and followed for one time point in 30 cases.

Result: The follow-up assessment revealed that neuropsychological functioning did not worsen with time. Improvements were seen in block designing task (p = 0.050), serial positioning primacy effect (p = 0.002), Stroop incongruent task (p = 0.006), visual long-term memory (p = 0.003) and attention (p = 0.001). DMD cases with mutation location affecting short dystrophin isoform (Dp140) also showed improvement in these domains.

Conclusion: No temporal alterations were found in DMD subjects, though improvements in few domains were observed. Neuropsychological rehabilitation may be useful in improving the quality of life in DMD subjects.

Physical Activity Patterns in India Stratified by Zones, Age, Region, BMI and Implications for COVID-19: A Nationwide Study

Rationale:

India has a high prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which can be lowered by regular physical activity. To understand this association, recent population data is required which is representative of all the states and union territories of the country.

Objective:

We aimed to investigate the patterns of physical activity in India, stratified by zones, body mass index (BMI), urban, rural areas, and gender.

Method:

We present the analysis of physical activity status from the data collected during the phase 1 of a pan-India study. This (Niyantrita Madhumeha Bharata 2017) was a multicenter pan-India cluster sampled trial with dual objectives. A survey to identify all individuals at a high risk for diabetes, using a validated instrument called the Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS), was followed by a two-armed randomized yoga-based lifestyle intervention for the primary prevention of diabetes. The physical activity was scored as per IDRS (vigorous exercise or strenuous at work = 0, moderate exercise at home/work = 10, mild exercise at home/work = 20, no exercise = 30). This was done in a selected cluster using a mobile application. A weighted prevalence was calculated based on the nonresponse rate and design weight.

Results:

We analyzed the data from 2,33,805 individuals; the mean age was 41.4 years (SD 13.4). Of these, 50.6% were females and 49.4% were males; 45.8% were from rural areas and 54% from urban areas. The BMI was 24.7 ± 4.6 kg/m². Briefly, 20% were physically inactive and 57% of the people were either inactive or mildly active. 21.2% of females were found physically inactive, whereas 19.2% of males were inactive. Individuals living in urban localities were proportionately more inactive (21.7% vs. 18.8%) or mildly active (38.9% vs. 34.8%) than the rural people. Individuals from the central (29.6%) and south zones (28.6%) of the country were also relatively inactive, in contrast to those from the northwest zone (14.2%). The known diabetics were found to be physically inactive (28.3% vs. 19.8%) when compared with those unaware of their diabetic status.

Conclusion:

20% and 37% of the population in India are not active or mildly active, respectively, and thus 57% of the surveyed population do not meet the physical activity regimen recommended by the World Health Organization. This puts a large Indian population at risk of developing various NCDs, which are being increasingly reported to be vulnerable to COVID-19 infections. India needs to adopt the four strategic objectives recommended by the World Health Organization for reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity.

Prevalence and Awareness of Stroke and Other Comorbidities Associated with Diabetes in Northwest India

Objectives  The main purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence of comorbid conditions in diabetic, prediabetic, and nondiabetic individuals. Additionally, the current study examines the levels of awareness of those comorbidities among North Indian population.

Methods  As a part of a national study (Niyantrit Madhumeh Bharat [NMB] screening program), different comorbidity parameters were screened in the northern part of India between April and September 2017. There were 1,215 participants recruited in this study. Biochemical analyses of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) were conducted on the study subjects. Subsequently, the study subjects were divided into diabetic, prediabetic, and nondiabetic groups based on their HbA1c results.

Results  The study analysis reveals a higher prevalence of peripheral vascular disease (21.2%), ocular diseases (18%), and hypertension (13.4%) in diabetics with other comorbidities. Furthermore, the study found that a vast majority of the participants were unaware of the presence of hypertension (67.2%), dyslipidemia (84.5%), kidney disease (95.2%), peripheral vascular disease (34.5%), and stroke (95.1%).

Conclusion  The study concluded that in the northern India, the prevalence of multiple comorbid conditions, such as peripheral vascular disease and hypertension, is higher among diabetic population. Also, the level of awareness of diabetic comorbidities is surprisingly low, which has implications for policymakers, health practitioners, and educators of alternate medicine to increase awareness about diabetes, comorbid conditions, health risk, and possible solution at community and rural level, such as periodic screening programs in this population.

Effectiveness of Yoga as the Public Health Intervention Module in the Management of Diabetes and Diabetes Associated Dementia in South East Asia: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is widely spread in South Asian (ASEAN) and Indian sub-continent. The increasing healthcare costs of DM can be prevented in the developing world by improved public healthcare interventions. Modifiable risk factors of DM like sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and stressful conditions are associated with its progression; however, the epidemiological data collected by Public Institutions are limited.

SUMMARY

A review of published literature describing geographic distribution of DM and associated dementia in South Asian region, particularly India, was conducted with the purpose of assessing the feasibility and challenges associated with the Yoga-based risk reduction. PubMed and Google Scholar databases were searched for DM and dementia-related articles by using a combination of keywords: Diabetes, Diabetes related Dementia Southeast Asia, Pre-diabetes, Yoga, lifestyle modification, Dementia and Exercise. The epidemiological data generated from these diseases have not prompted to any major public health policies. Yoga can be a cost-effective intervention for the prevention of Type 2 DM (T2DM) and its associated cognitive decline when detected early. If nationwide intervention of Yoga is brought about by the state, its integration in health care will become more meaningful and acceptable. Key Message: Studies suggest that Yoga and change in lifestyle can modify the health risks associated with T2DM and associated dementia if it is mainstreamed with the public health initiative of Ayushman Bharat scheme.

Altered Expression of Heat Shock Protein-27 and Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 after Acute Spinal Cord Injury: A Pilot Study

Background  Spinal cord injury (SCI) leads to serious complications involving primary trauma and progressive loss due to inflammation, local ischemia, or infection. Despite a worldwide annual incidence of 15 to 40 cases per million, methylprednisolone is the only treatment available to alleviate neurologic dysfunction; therefore, research is currently focused on identifying novel targets by biochemical and molecular studies.

Purpose  Here, we investigated the expression of various molecular markers at the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) and protein level at day 0 and day 30 post-SCI.

Methods  Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was performed to determine the expression of CASPASE-3 and heat shock protein-27 (HSP-27) in serum samples. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to determine the level of mRNA expression of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (VEGFR-1), VEGFR-2, HSP-27, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and CASPASE-3.

Results  HSP-27 expression at day 30, as compared with day 0, showed significant downregulation. In contrast, there was elevated expression of MCP-1. ELISA analysis showed no significant change in the expression of CASPASE-3 or HSP-27.

Conclusion  There may be possible opposing role of HSP-27 and MCP-1 governing SCI. Their association can be studied by designing in vitro studies.

Partitioning of radiological, stress and biochemical changes in pre-diabetic women subjected to Diabetic Yoga Protocol

BACKGROUND

Yoga is an ancient system of wellness with Asana and Pranayama as its most popular and propagated modules for management of lifestyle disorders.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to characterise the liver abnormalities, biochemical changes, and stress levels after Yoga intervention in prediabetic females.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

37 females were randomly divided into Yoga practising and non-practising control groups. The Yoga practising group performed Diabetic Yoga Protocol (DYP) for 3 months. Parameters including size of liver, fatty infiltration, and grade of severity were measured using ultrasonography along with biochemical parameters and stress levels at baseline and after Yoga practice.

RESULTS

The glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and glucose levels were found significantly reduced in prediabetic (p = 0.015) women after practising DYP, although cholesterol levels increased in menopausal women. No escalation of fatty liver was noted among women practising DYP.

CONCLUSION

DYP reduced the HbA1c and stress levels and therefore, could be a cost-effective tool for preventing prediabetes to diabetes progression.

Middle-aged man who could not afford an angioplasty

Coronary artery disease managed by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been noted for profit-driven overuse medicine. Concerns mount over inappropriate use of PCI for patients in India. We describe the case of a 55-year-old Indian man who presented for a second opinion following an urgent recommendation for PCI by two cardiologists following a recent acute myocardial infarction even though the patient was symptom-free and out of the window period for primary PCI. The proposed intervention placed the patient at financial risk for insolvency. This case report highlights the challenges and consequences of inappropriate overuse of PCI. Also, we outline the current lack of shared decision-making among patients and physicians for the PCI procedure. The challenges, inherent in the assumptions that overuse of PCI is evidence-based, are discussed including recommendations for the practice of evidence based medicine for this intervention.

Developing a Case-Based Blended Learning Ecosystem to Optimize Precision Medicine: Reducing Overdiagnosis and Overtreatment

INTRODUCTION

Precision medicine aims to focus on meeting patient requirements accurately, optimizing patient outcomes, and reducing under-/overdiagnosis and therapy. We aim to offer a fresh perspective on accuracy driven “age-old precision medicine” and illustrate how newer case-based blended learning ecosystems (CBBLE) can strengthen the bridge between age-old precision approaches with modern technology and omics-driven approaches.

METHODOLOGY

We present a series of cases and examine the role of precision medicine within a “case-based blended learning ecosystem” (CBBLE) as a practicable tool to reduce overdiagnosis and overtreatment. We illustrated the workflow of our CBBLE through case-based narratives from global students of CBBLE in high and low resource settings as is reflected in global health.

RESULTS

Four micro-narratives based on collective past experiences were generated to explain concepts of age-old patient-centered scientific accuracy and precision and four macro-narratives were collected from individual learners in our CBBLE. Insights gathered from a critical appraisal and thematic analysis of the narratives were discussed.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Case-based narratives from the individual learners in our CBBLE amply illustrate their journeys beginning with “age-old precision thinking” in low-resource settings and progressing to “omics-driven” high-resource precision medicine setups to demonstrate how the approaches, used judiciously, might reduce the current pandemic of over-/underdiagnosis and over-/undertreatment.

Collective Conversational Peer Review of Journal Submission: A Tool to Integrate Medical Education and Practice

BACKGROUND

In this study, we demonstrate a collective collaborative, conversational, pre-publication peer review of a randomized controlled trial.

METHODS

Using Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist, a group of research-oriented undergraduate medical and pharmacy students and their teacher collectively on an online forum, discuss and review a randomized controlled trial submitted to the Annals of Neurosciences and the explanatory commentary from each reviewer makes a basic scaffold for critical appraisal of the manuscript.

RESULTS

This method provided the opportunity for students to engage in online interactive training and allowed them to understand tools used for critical appraisal of a study. Students were incentivized by the potential publication credit and they look forward to continuing this work and perhaps providing one small step to making medical education more interactive.

CONCLUSION

Open peer review involving a group of reviewers at a time produces multidirectional reviewing concepts, thus helps to improve the quality of paper and also may reduce the time between review and publication.