Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The eye in forensic practice: In the dead

Post-mortem examination of the eye provides valuable forensic information yet is often overlooked. This brief review focuses on determining the cause/manner of death and post-mortem interval. External eye findings like corneal haziness and tache noire, combined with post-mortem changes in the iris, lens, retina and vitreous humour, can help estimate time since death. Ocular biometrics (iris/retinal scans) may facilitate identification. Age-related ocular changes can provide insights. The eye offers clues into personality (corneal tattooing, trichotillomania) and cause of death (petechiae in strangulation, retinal haemorrhages in abusive head trauma). Ocular trauma and underlying eye disease may be evident. Toxicology of vitreous humour can detect drugs/poisons. As a window into systemic disease and age-related changes, the eye aids pathology interpretations and, accordingly, post-mortem examinations have value. Ocular findings should not be overlooked in forensic examinations as they provide distinct information in determining cause/manner of death and post-mortem interval.

The eye in forensic practice: In the living

Eye examination plays an important role when living individuals are forensically investigated. The iris colour, retinal scans and other biometric features may be used for identification purposes while visual impairments may have legal implications in employment, driving and accidents. Ocular manifestations provide clues regarding substance abuse, poisoning and toxicity, and evidence of trauma, abuse or disease can be revealed along with psychological traits and lifestyle. Thus, the eye is a valuable tool in forensic investigations of living subjects, providing identifying characteristics along with health information. This review focuses on the medico-legal aspects of the eye's contribution when the living are subjected to forensic examination.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Delayed diagnosis of pemphigus vulgaris in rural Nepal due to healthcare inaccessibility and harmful traditional practices: A case report

Early intervention is imperative for potentially fatal dermatologic diseases such as pemphigus vulgaris. In rural Nepal, limited public awareness, home remedies, and delays in healthcare access lead to poor outcomes. Although biopsy confirms the diagnosis, experienced dermatologists can make an accurate clinical diagnosis when characteristic skin lesions are present.

Palliative care and euthanasia: A Nepalese scenario

Palliative care, namely the relief of pain, is a priority for cases of incurable diseases in Nepal. However, since oral morphine is not available, pain control is often inadequate. Euthanasia is not permissible by law but could be a better solution in some cases and should be made understandable to patients and physicians as in developed countries. Should euthanasia be legal? If cheap and effective palliative care were easily accessible, most terminally ill Nepalese would avoid pressure to practise euthanasia because it is a cheaper option.

Striving toward safe abortion services in Nepal: A review of barriers and facilitators

Background and Aims

Despite the decriminalization of abortion in Nepal in 2002, unsafe abortion is still a significant contributor to maternal morbidity and mortality. Nepal has witnessed a significant drop in abortion-related severe complications and maternal deaths owing to the legalization of abortion laws, lowered financial costs, and wider accessibility of safe abortion services (SAS). However, various factors such as sociocultural beliefs, financial constraints, geographical difficulties, and stigma act as barriers to the liberal accessibility of SAS. This review aimed to determine key barriers obstructing women's access to lawful, safe abortion care and identify facilitators that have improved access to and quality of abortion services.

Methods

A systematic search strategy utilizing the databases PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Embase was used to include studies on the accessibility and safety of abortion services in Nepal. Data were extracted from included studies through close reading. Barriers and facilitators were then categorized into various themes and analyzed.

Results

Of 223 studies, 112 were duplicates, 73 did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 18 did not align with the research question; thus, 20 studies were included in the review. Various barriers to SAS in Nepal were categorized as economic, geographic, societal, legal/policy, socio-cultural, health systems, and other factors. Facilitators improving access were categorized as economic/geographic/societal, legal/policy, socio-cultural, and health systems factors. The patterns and trends of barriers and facilitators were analyzed, grouping them under legal/policy, socio-cultural, geographic/accessibility, and health systems factors.

Conclusion

The review identifies financial constraints, unfavorable geography, lack of infrastructure, and social stigmatization as major barriers to SAS. Economics and geography, legalization, improved access, reduced cost and active involvement of auxiliary nurse-midwives and community health volunteers are key facilitators.

The evolution of anesthesiology education: Embracing new technologies and teaching approaches

Background and aims

Medical education requires regular reforms to include emerging best practices and technologies, while also critically evaluating effectiveness of traditional didactic teaching methods. This manuscript examines the challenges and opportunities associated with modernizing the anesthesiology curriculum.

Methods

Narrative review of literature on innovations in medical education, with a specific emphasis on anesthesiology training.

Results

Educators face difficulties implementing new teaching approaches and evaluating their effectiveness. However, active learning methods, blended with selected traditional techniques, can enhance learner engagement and competencies. Self-directed learning and simulations prepare students for real-world practice, while flipped classrooms and online platforms increase accessibility.

Conclusions

A blended approach, integrating interactive technology alongside modified lectures and seminars, may optimize anesthesiology education. Despite the promise of improved pedagogies, further research is required to assess outcomes. By embracing innovation while retaining certain foundational methods, programs can equip anesthesiologists with modern skills. This evolution is key to meeting the needs of 21st-century anesthesia care needs. Remaining at the forefront of this transformation will be vital in preparing competent future anesthesiologists through state-of-the-art education.

Human sacrifice: From religious ritual to legal sentence in Nepal

Human sacrifice is a gruesome and controversial practice where one or more individuals are killed as part of a religious ceremony or as a gift to a deity. While the practice has been widely condemned globally, it still persists in some communities in some countries. Nepal, in particular, has a history of animal sacrifice with larger offerings taking place every five years. While animal sacrifice is legal, the ultimate punishment for engaging in human sacrifice is a legal sentence. This article examines the historical and cultural context of sacrifice in Nepal and explores some contemporary cases of human sacrifice reported in the media. The article also considers the impact of superstitious beliefs and the need for evidence-based attitudes to support human rights.

Brain Death and Organ Transplantation in Nepal: Navigating Cultural, Legal, and Ethical Landscapes

Organ transplantation after brain death is challenging in Nepal due to cultural beliefs, legal frameworks, and ethical considerations. The Human Body Organ Transplantation (Regulation and Prohibition) Act (HBOTA) has not met with substantial success after its amendment. This review critically appraises the current state of brain death and organ transplantation in Nepal. It explores challenges, evaluates progress, and provides recommendations. Literature review of databases was conducted to find articles on brain death, organ donation, and transplantation in Nepal. Analysis of cultural, legal, ethical, and practical factors influencing implementation. Key challenges include limited awareness, religious beliefs, infrastructure gaps, and family consent barriers. HBOTA amendments in 2016 enabled brain death donations, however, donation rates remain low. Strategies are needed to improve public education, resources, personnel training, and collaboration. Cultural sensitivity and stakeholder engagement are crucial. A multifaceted approach addressing cultural, legal, ethical and practical dimensions is essential to improve organ donation rates in Nepal. Despite progress, substantial challenges persist requiring evidence-based strategies focused on awareness, capacity building, policy improvements, and culturally appropriate community engagement.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings

Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation

Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adversarial Homicide-Suicide Perpetrated by Domestic Helper: A Case Report From Nepal

The majority of literature on homicide-suicide addresses the fact that victims are predominantly female, and offenders are typically adult males (older than the victims) who share a familial, marital, or consortial relationship with them. The probability of fatalities involving murder-suicides in the bedrooms of middle-class households is higher. We present a case where an adolescent domestic helper strangled his landlady, twice his age, only to commit suicide by hanging thereafter. We go on to discuss homicide-suicide by servants outside the consortial relationship and the possible reasons for it in the Nepalese context.

A case report of infanticide in rural Nepal: Sociocultural perspectives and forensic considerations

This case highlights the complex interplay of mental health, stigma, and lack of contraceptive access underlying tragic instances of infanticide. Comprehensive medicolegal investigation paired with cross-sector efforts to expand reproductive services and transform cultural attitudes is crucial to protect vulnerable women and children.

The tragic consequence of false honour: Understanding the phenomenon of "honour-killings" and its legal implications in Nepal

"Honour-killings" are the intentional execution of women who are perceived to have disrespected their families; in Nepal this is frequently considered socially acceptable while the United Nations condemns them as arbitrary executions that violate the right to life. In Nepal, "honour-killing" is typically a caste-based hate crime which is not limited to women as there have been reports of male victims as well. The perpetrators are sentenced to life imprisonment for murder, with the perpetrator serving 25 years. Pride-killing is common in the animal kingdom, but there is no logic in killing a family member to maintain family pride in a civilised human society.

Organ transplantation in Nepal: Ethical, legal, and practical issues

In Nepal, live donor organ transplantation is only 14 years old with the first successful kidney transplant made in 2008 and a successful liver and bone marrow transplant made in 2016. However, transplantation of cadaveric cornea dates back to 1998. There are still no cases of animal-to-human organ transplantation in Nepal. There are stringent laws to regulate human body organ transplantation in Nepal which are amended from time to time. However, there is a racket of human traffickers who lure rural people from this low-income country into the illegal organ trade. Furthermore, there is a substantial lack of awareness of organ donation among the general public. This article focuses on the stipulations of ethical, legal, and practical issues of obtaining organs procured from living and brain-dead donors that support the process of transplantation in Nepal. In addition, the article also explores the legal and practical issues of organ trafficking and organ donation awareness in Nepal on the basis of factual data and findings from other studies.

Assessment of quality of life (QOL) in cancer patients attending oncology unit of a Teaching Hospital in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

The quality of life (QoL) of a cancer patient is their perception of their physical, functional, psychological, and social well-being. QoL is one of the most important factors to consider when treating someone with cancer and during follow-up. The aim of this study was to understand the state of QoL among cancer patients in Bangladesh and to determine the factors that affect it.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 210 cancer patients who attended the oncology unit of Delta Medical College & Hospital, Dhaka during the period between 1 May 2022 and 31 August 2022. Data were collected using the Bengali version of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) questionnaire.

RESULTS

The study reported a high number of female cancer patients (67.6%), who were married, Muslims by religion, and non-residents of Dhaka. Breast cancer was more common among women (31.43%), while lung and upper respiratory tract cancer was more prevalent among men (19.05%). The majority of the patients (86.19%) were diagnosed with cancer in the past year. The overall mean score for functional scales was higher for physical functioning (54.92) whereas it was lower for social functioning (38.89). The highest score on the symptom scale was for financial problems (63.02), while the lowest was for diarrhea (33.01). The overall QoL score of cancer patients in the study was 47.98 and it was lower for males (45.71) compared to females (49.10).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall QoL was poor among Bangladeshi cancer patients compared to those in developed countries. A low QoL score was observed for social and emotional functions. Financial difficulty was the main reason behind the lower QoL score on the symptom scale.

Suicidal Ideation Among Medical and Nursing Students

BACKGROUND

Suicidal ideation is a major predictor of suicide attempts. The present study was conducted to compare the prevalence of suicidal ideation and its risk factors among medical and nursing students in Nepal.

METHODS

An online survey was carried out among a cohort of medical and nursing students of Lumbini Medical College using questions derived from General Health Questionnaire-28 and Patient Health Questionnaire-9.

RESULTS

153 medical and 148 nursing students participated in the study. Lifetime suicidal ideation was present in 20.6%(n=62) medical and 13.95%(n=42) nursing students. Suicidal ideation in the last one year was present in 48 medical and 36 nursing students. There were higher odds of suicidal ideation in medical students who had parental neglect, psychiatric disorder, physical and sexual abuse, substance abuse, and academic performance dissatisfaction (p<0.05), whereas the odds were higher in nursing students with psychiatric disorder, parental demands, alcohol consumption, and academic performance dissatisfaction but was not statistically significant. Thematic analysis of the responses for open-ended question for reasons for previous suicide plans or attempts among four medical and eight nursing students revealed relationship issues, history of adverse childhood experiences, academics-related circumstances, and other individual problems as suicide antecedents.

CONCLUSIONS

Periodic motivational speeches and counselling sessions during all the semesters of professional schooling would help decrease suicidal ideation. Mental health awareness programs for medical and nursing students should be aimed at reducing mental illness-associated stigma and promoting timely professional help-seeking behavior.

The medico-legal death investigation system in Nepal

In Nepal, police inquests have several limitations. When they receive information about a death, the police visit the crime scene and write an inquest report. Then, they arrange for the body to be autopsied. However, most autopsies are performed by medical officers in government hospitals who lack specialised training in conducting autopsies. Although all Nepalese medical schools teach forensic medicine to undergraduate students and require them to witness some autopsies, most private institutions are not authorised to perform them. Autopsies performed without expertise can be subpar and, even when trained personnel are available, these facilities are inadequately equipped. In addition, there is a lack of sufficient manpower to provide expert medico-legal services. The Honourable Judges and District Attorneys of all district courts believe that the medico-legal reports prepared by the doctors are inappropriate, incomplete and inadequate for use as evidence in court. Moreover, the police are more concerned with establishing criminality than other aspects of medico-legal death investigation, such as autopsies. Therefore, the quality of medico-legal investigations, including death investigations, will not improve until government stakeholders recognise the importance of forensic medicine in the judiciary and for the resolution of crimes.

Suicide attempts due to child abuse: A perspective into the Nepalese legal framework and societal norms

Children who experience violence are more prone to develop high-risk behaviour, mental illness and anxiety disorder. Nepalese law is against any form of physical violence but corporal punishment by parents on children continues in patriarchal Nepalese society. We describe a case of a young boy who attempted suicide twice due to maltreatment and discuss the legal and social issues involved.

Intimate Partner Violence During Pregnancy in South Asia: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review collated the literature on the prevalence rate of different types of intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy in South Asia.

METHODS

Systematic literature searches were conducted in four major databases (Embase, Scopus, PubMed, PubMed Central) to identify relevant articles published from the inception of each database to May 2021, which reported data on the prevalence of intimate partner violence during pregnancy in South Asia. The Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies was used to assess the risk of bias in individual studies. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence interval due to significant between-study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies were reviewed which showed an overall prevalence of IPV from South Asian countries was 23.4% (physical violence: 13.6%; sexual violence: 8.5%; emotional violence: 20.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a higher prevalence of intimate partner violence during pregnancy reported, with an overall prevalence ranging from 1.7% to 66.4% across studies. Emotional violence was more prevalent form when compared to sexual or physical violence.

Fatal Choking Due to a Slug: A Death Driven by Folklore

The use of animals for therapeutic purposes is based on traditional beliefs, family pressure, and watching others appear to be cured. We report an unusual case of a 47-y-old man who choked to death after consuming a live slug. During autopsy, a 9.5-cm slug was found impacted in the tracheobronchial tree. History provided by the family revealed that the deceased consumed slugs in the belief that this would relieve his symptoms of chronic arthritis. We report this rare case to highlight the possible ill effects of such practices.

Barriers to mental health care access in Nepal

Mental disorders are stigmatised in Nepal. There are many instances where mentally ill people are tormented by their family members and society and where patients with mental illness are shackled and kept under house arrest. Physical illness attracts early medical care, but not mental illness. There are no asylums for patients suffering from mental illness. The Nepalese government must prioritise it as a serious health issue and allocate more money and take steps to tackle the stigma and deficiencies associated with it.

Asymptomatic pellet in the maxillary sinus: Medico-legal perspective

Air guns used for plinking are weapons with a short range and low velocity. Because of their low velocity, the ammunition usually enters the body without causing any immediate life-threatening complications. Lead toxicity is a potential side effect of a pellet lodged in the body. However, there are cases where blood lead level was below the reference value even after decades of an air gun pellet remaining in the body. We report a case of 40-year-old man whose X-ray of the skull revealed a metallic foreign body that appeared to be an air gun pellet in the maxillary sinus. The patient recalled receiving a gunshot wound to his left cheek ten years ago. The wound healed, the pain subsided, and the patient was symptom-free, so he did not seek medical attention. The present case study illustrates the incidental finding of impacted foreign body and its medico-legal aspects in the Nepalese context.

Incidence and Comparison of Suicide in Various Phases of the Menstrual Cycle: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Suicide is a global health concern. There are reproductive health-related factors that are responsible for increasing the risk of female suicide. There are a number of studies examining the association between suicide and the menstrual cycle, but still, there are no conclusive findings. Aim: We aimed to pool data from all the studies reporting data on suicides and the menstrual cycle phase to report the following outcomes: incidence of suicidal deaths in the menstrual, secretory, and proliferative phases, and to find out whether the burden of suicide in the menstrual phase in particular, was more at a young age (18-35 years) or middle age (36-50years). Methods: The PubMed database was extensively searched from inception till 12th April 2022. The data for the number of events occurring for each outcome were pooled using random-effects model and forest plots were created. Results: Five articles were shortlisted for inclusion in our analysis. Incidence of suicide in the secretory phase was highest at 45.2% [95% CI, 0.367–0.537]. The incidence of suicide, when occurring in the menstrual phase, was reported to be 68.4% (95 CI, 0.317–1.052) and 31.6% (95 CI, -0.052.3–0.68) for young-aged and middle-aged victims, respectively. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that the menstrual phase has a lower risk of mortality due to suicide when compared to the other two phases of the menstrual cycle. Nevertheless, when suicide occurred in the menstrual phase, the incidence of suicide among the younger age-group was higher than for those in the middle age-group.

Morphometric analysis of the foramen magnum in sex estimation: An additional 3DCT study from Nepal on a larger sample

Background

Estimation of sex of the skeletal remains plays a vital part in the identification of an individual. This study is focused on the morphometric measurements of the foramen magnum region and examining the accuracy of sexual dimorphism in the Nepalese population.

Methods

Measurements were obtained from 3D computed tomography (CT) scan of 261 Nepalese adult cranial bases with known age and sex. Length and breadth of the foramen magnum, length and breadth of right and left occipital condyles and maximum and minimum intercondylar distance were measured on the base of the skull CT images.

Results

The mean values for all parameters were higher in males than females except for the maximum intercondylar distance. Sex prediction done with discriminant function analysis could classify the skull with an overall accuracy of 70.5%-71%.

Conclusions

It can be concluded from the results that the morphometric study of the foramen magnum is less reliable for sex estimation in the Nepalese population.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Road Traffic Injuries among Patients Visiting the Emergency Department in a Tertiary Care Centre: A Descriptive Cross-sectional Study

Introduction

Road traffic injuries are preventable yet one of the most neglected public health issues. Road traffic injuries not only impact the health of the victim but also cause financial burden to the entire family. This study aimed to find out the prevalence of road traffic injuries in patients visiting the Emergency Department in a tertiary care centre.

Methods

A descriptive study was conducted among patients visiting the Emergency Department in a tertiary care centre from 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2021 after receiving ethical approval from the Institutional Review Committee (Reference number: IRC-LMC 07-J/020). Demographic information of the patients, accident profile and type of intervention at the hospital, and outcome were studied. Point estimate and 95% Confidence Interval were calculated.

Results

Among 8,765 patients visiting the emergency department, road traffic injuries were seen in 112 (1.28%) (1.04-1.52, 95% Confidence Interval).

Conclusions

The prevalence of road traffic injuries was found to be similar to other studies conducted in a similar setting.

Keywords

automobiles; demography; Nepal; soft tissue injuries; traffic accidents.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Oval Type of Human Mandibular Condyle in Panoramic Radiographs of a Tertiary Care Centre: A Descriptive Cross-sectional Study

Introduction

Mandibular condyle is a prominent structure in the mandible, which forms the temporomandibular joint. An oval-shaped condyle is considered to be present with a normal temporomandibular joint and any morphological variation of the condyle is assumed to be pathologic in temporomandibular disorders. The aim of the study was to find out the prevalence of oval shaped mandibular condyle among orthopantomogram radiographs of patients visiting the tertiary care centre.

Methods

A descriptive cross-sectional study was performed among 752 condyles visiting a tertiary care center from November 29, 2021 to April 1, 2022. The ethical approval was taken from the Institutional Review Committee (Reference number: 184 (6-11) 078/079) before conducting the study. Convenience sampling was done. The radiographs were first examined and the observed morphological type of mandibular condyle was noted. Data analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 22.0. Point estimate at 95% Confidence Interval was calculated along with frequency and proportion for binary data.

Results

The prevalence of oval shaped mandibular condyles out of 752 condyles was 416 (55.32%) (51.77-58.87 at 95% Confidence Interval). The oval-shaped condyle on the right side was 205 (54.52%) and on the left side was 211 (56.12%).

Conclusions

The prevalence of oval shaped condyles among patients in this study was similar to the studies done in similar settings.

Keywords

condyle; mandible; Nepal; X-ray.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Assessment of fear, anxiety, obsession and functional impairment due to COVID-19 amongst health-care workers and trainees: A cross-sectional study in Nepal

Background:

The emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic threw the world into turmoil. The medical community bore the brunt of the pandemic's toll. Long work hours, and a lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) and social support all had an influence on mental health.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study was conducted among Lumbini Medical College Teaching Hospital students and employees in Palpa, Nepal. Data entailing their demographic details, pre-existing comorbidities, or death in the family due to COVID-19 was collected using a self-administered survey. In addition, the level of fear, anxiety, obsession, and functional impairment due to COVID-19 was recorded using previously validated respective scales.

Results:

In total, 403 health-care workers and trainees participated in our study. The mean age of the study participants was 23±4 years, and more than half of them (n=262, 65%) were females. A significant association was found between fear score with age (p-value=0.04), gender (p-value <0.01) and occupation (p-value<0.001). The participants suffering from chronic diseases (p-value=0.36), were not found to be significantly obsessed with COVID-19. Age (p-value=0.34), was not found to be significantly associated with higher anxiety levels. Nursing students suffered from a significantly greater functional impairment than other health-care professionals (mean rank score=269.15, p-value < 0.001). A moderately positive correlation was observed between fear, anxiety, obsession, and functional impairment scales.

Conclusion:

This study revealed various socio-demographic characteristics as risk factors for psychological stress in the people related to the health-care profession of Nepal during the COVID-19 pandemic. A viable answer to this quandary might be adequate psychosocial intervention by health-care authorities, increased social support, and the introduction of better mental health management measures for the front-line health-care workers.

Case Report: Medicolegal evaluation in a pediatric case of fatal scald injury from rural Nepal

Thermal injuries in young children involving the buttocks, perineum, and lower limbs raise suspicion of child abuse. Determining the manner of death and ruling out homicide in a fatal case of scalding remains a challenge for forensic practitioners. In the present article, the medicolegal evaluation in a case of fatal scald injury involving a two-year-old child from rural Nepal is discussed. Young children sustaining serious injuries from scalds is a grave social concern. Such young lives need to be protected from scald injuries whether accidental or purposeful. Differences in injury patterns on the basis of their distribution and their characteristics are important to determine the manner of death in such cases.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of COPD in Nepal: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease is a common, preventable, and treatable disease. Here, we conducted a systematic review of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and its risk factors in Nepal for the last two decades.

METHODS

We systematically searched databases to find all relevant Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease research papers from 2000 to 2020. Two reviewers screened the literature using Covidence based on the study protocol. Data extraction was done using Microsoft Excel from selected studies. Final data analysis was done using CMA v.3. Our review protocol is available in PROSPERO (CRD42020215486) on 20 November 2020.

RESULTS

The database search revealed 1416 studies of which 13 were included in quantitative analysis. The prevalence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the adult population was 22·7% (CI, 12·5-37·7) of whom 54·9% were female (CI, 51·9-57·9). Nearly three-fourth of the participants (73·1%) of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients had informal education (CI, 58·6-84·0). The commonest primary occupation was agriculture and farming in 39·4% (CI, 31·3-48·2), followed by homemaker (36·8%). It was observed that 28·5% of the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients were former smokers, 25·8% non-smokers, and 59·4% were current smokers. More than two-third (76·2%) of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients relied upon traditional firewood cooking, whereas only 14.6% was adopted fireless cooking.

CONCLUSIONS

The pooled prevalence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Nepal was significantly high with more cases in females compared to males. Smoking and traditional firewood cooking were major risk factors among Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease cases in Nepal.

Case Report: Accidental firearm injury during trophy hunting and the role of paramedics in managing such cases at rural health posts in Nepal

Possession of a firearm without a certified valid license is against Nepalese law. Following a decade-long civil war, Nepal government issued stringent laws not allowing public to possess firearms without a valid reason, despite bearing a license. However, there are people who possess and use firearms for hunting purposes. The present case reports an accidental death of a teenage boy who used a musket for hunting. The present case highlights the fact that despite these stringent laws, illegal possession of arms for trophy hunting is still prevalent in rural Nepal. Furthermore, this study aims to highlight the importance of paramedics in early intervention, stabilization and transport of the sick and injured to the hospital in emergency situations. Also, recruitment of paramedics in the ambulance service might have prevented untimely death in this particular case.

The nose as a feature of forensic practice

The nose is a prominent facial structure which is too often overlooked by forensic medicine practitioners. Studies that consider the role of the nose in forensic practice are scattered throughout scientific literature. We provide a brief review of these.

Male genital injuries treated at a tertiary hospital in the western region of Nepal: A two-year snapshot

Background: Male genital injuries are urological emergencies which if not promptly treated with correct therapeutic intervention may lead to loss of fertility due to infections and anatomical disruption of normalcy. This study highlights the clinical scenarios, etiology and outcome of male genital injury cases that were managed at a tertiary care center in Nepal. Such injuries are not frequently encountered as patients are hesitant to report such injuries. The present study is the first from Nepal which depicts a comprehensive report on male genital injuries.  

Methods: A retrospective analysis of discharge summaries of the cases of male genital injuries was reviewed during June 2020. All the treated cases during the two-year period from April 2018 to April 2020 at Lumbini Medical College, Nepal were included in the study. 

Results: There were eight cases of genital trauma admitted and treated during the study period. All the patients were males and age ranged from six to 71 years with a mean age of 33 ± 21.45 years. Fall injury and road traffic accidents (RTA) were observed to be the primary cause in the majority of cases. 

Conclusion: Superficial injuries to the penis and scrotum do not require surgical exploration and could be managed conservatively. However, deeper and complicated injuries, testicular preservation, the functionality of the part and cosmetic issues are taken into consideration which might require a multi-disciplinary approach. Apart from the medical issues pertaining to genital injuries, there are legal and psychological aspects of such events too which should not be ignored.

Research trends in forensic anthropology: A bibliometric analysis

This paper aims to examine the worldwide research development and trends in forensic anthropology by using bibliometric analysis. Scopus database was used to identify published papers on forensic anthropology from 1948 to 2020. A total of 4,499 records were analyzed for yearly publication productivity, authorship and citation pattern, types of documents, most productive journals, organizations, authors, and countries, frequently cited papers, most used keywords, countries of collaboration, and three-field plot analysis in the domain of forensic anthropology. The results indicated that the highest grand total publications were between the years 2016 and 2019, while the highest multi-authored publications were in the year 2018. The most productive journal, author, organization, and country were the 'Journal of Forensic Sciences' with grand total publications of 934, 'Cattaneo, C.' with 97 publications, 'Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique' with 130 publications, and the United States with 1020 total cited papers, respectively. The document with the highest number of citations was 'Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002, Am J Phys Anthropol' with a total of 387. Three-field plot analysis regarding the most outstanding keyword-source-country was "Forensic anthropology"- "Journal of Forensic Sciences" and "Forensic Science International"- "USA", "France", and "UK". The predomination of certain countries over others in the field of forensic anthropology limits its prosperity as ethnic variety is of important regard. Research collaborations were mainly observed between the United States and European countries, which highlights the need for strengthening collaborations between developed and developing nations.

Forensic medicine in Nepal: Past, present, and future

The practice of autopsy for medico-legal purposes in Nepal was started during the 1960s when jail doctors used to perform the autopsy. However, the medico-legal service in clinical forensic settings is less than three decades old. In Nepal, a police inquest is done for all the unnatural deaths who then subjects the body for medico-legal autopsy at the nearest government hospital. Except for a few hospitals where forensic medicine experts are available, the medico-legal work in Nepal is done by medical officers most of who have no forensic qualification. For a country with a population of nearly 30 million, there are less than 50 forensic medicine experts who are currently practicing. There are 21 medical colleges in Nepal each having a forensic medicine department engaged in teaching forensic medicine as a separate subject in the undergraduate medical curriculum. Currently, postgraduate courses are also offered in the country. However, there is a lack of uniformity in the curriculum set by different universities for both postgraduate and undergraduate education. Due to the lack of forensic medicine faculty members in some medical colleges, the undergraduate students of medicine have to undertake the exam being taught by some guest lectures and without witnessing a single medico-legal autopsy. To standardize the medico-legal services and forensic medicine education, the Medico-Legal Society of Nepal was established with an aim to conduct regular seminars, conferences, and CMEs and also various training programs for the non-forensic medicine experts who deal with medico-legal cases. This paper aims to provide a brief history of medico-legal practice in Nepal, the current situation, and future plans to improve the medico-legal service of the country.

History taking in gynecology revisited

Nepal is one of the first South Asian countries to include anti discrimination laws against LGBTQ community, yet they face disparity in all sectors, including health. This group has special reproductive and sexual health needs, which has to be assessed and treated on an individual level. Most gynecologist in Nepal have not been trained to care for this vulnerable group and thus are not comfortable having them in clinical settings. History taking is essential to reach to an accurate diagnosis however, since the first year of medical school, history taking has been based on heteronormativity. To end disparities in reproductive health, learning modules for history taking for LGBTQ community is necessary for medical students, residents and for gynecologists. This would help display confidence and openness towards them and focus on individualized care.

Saree on Fireside: Fatal Burn in an Elderly Nepalese Female

As winter approaches, people in the land of rural Himalayas commonly use fire as the source of heat. Many accidents occur in the process, and mostly the victims are among unattended children and the elderlies. We present a case from rural Nepal where an elderly female sustained fatal burn injuries. Advanced age, greater surface area, and secondary infection were the complicating factors. In the present case, the victim's clad cloth (Saree) was the harbinger to death. Prevention of infection following burn and control of sepsis still remains the mainstay of treatment in burn victims.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Hands-on training on exhumation - an approach to train forensic medicine residents in South Asia

Forensic anthropology utilises the knowledge gained from the examination of human remains. It is a requirement for forensic medicine residents to have knowledge of forensic anthropology and exhumation. Most of the forensic medicine residents in the Indian sub-continent graduate only with a theoretical knowledge and without a proper practical training of the process involved. We demonstrate how hands-on training would be beneficial.