Migraine or any headaches and white matter hyperintensities and their progression in women and men

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have been conducted to investigate the association between migraine and any headache and white matter hyperintensities (WMH). However, studies are inconsistent regarding the strength of the association and its clinical significance. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between headache and its subtypes (migraine with aura (MigA+), migraine without aura (MigA-), non-migraine headache (nonMigHA)) and WMH and its course in the population-based 1000BRAINS study using state-of-the-art imaging techniques and migraine classification according to modified international classification of headache disorders.

METHODS

Data from 1062 participants (45% women, 60.9 ± 13.0 years) with ever or never headache (neverHA) and complete quantitative (WMH volume) and qualitative (Fazekas classification) WMH data at first imaging and after 3.7 ± 0.7 years (393 participants) were analyzed. The sex-specific association between headache and its subtypes and WMH volume and its change was evaluated by linear regression, between headache and its subtypes and Fazekas score high vs. low (2-3 vs. 0-1) by log-binomial regression, adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

The lifetime prevalence of headache was 77.5% (10.5% MigA+, 26.9% MigA-, 40.1% nonMigHA). The median WMH volume was 4005 (IQR: 2454-6880) mm3 in women and 4812 (2842-8445) mm3 in men. Women with any headaches (all headache types combined) had a 1.23 [1.04; 1.45]-fold higher WMH volume than women who reported never having had a headache. There was no indication of higher Fazekas grading or more WMH progression in women with migraine or any headaches. Men with migraine or any headaches did not have more WMH or WMH progression compared to men without migraine or men who never had headache.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated no increased occurrence or progression of WMH in participants with mgiraine. But, our results provide some evidence of greater WMH volume in women with headache of any type including migraine. The underlying pathomechanisms and the reasons why this was not shown in men are unclear and require further research.

Merkel Cell Carcinoma: Integrating Epidemiology, Immunology, and Therapeutic Updates

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare skin cancer characterized by neuroendocrine differentiation. Its carcinogenesis is based either on the integration of the Merkel cell polyomavirus or on ultraviolet (UV) mutagenesis, both of which lead to high immunogenicity either through the expression of viral proteins or neoantigens. Despite this immunogenicity resulting from viral or UV-associated carcinogenesis, it exhibits highly aggressive behavior. However, owing to the rarity of MCC and the lack of epidemiologic registries with detailed clinical data, there is some uncertainty regarding the spontaneous course of the disease. Historically, advanced MCC patients were treated with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy yielding a median response duration of only 3 months. Starting in 2017, four programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1)/programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) immune checkpoint inhibitors-avelumab, pembrolizumab, nivolumab (utilized in both neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings), and retifanlimab-have demonstrated efficacy in treating patients with disseminated MCC on the basis of prospective clinical trials. However, generating clinical evidence for rare cancers, such as MCC, is challenging owing to difficulties in conducting large-scale trials, resulting in small sample sizes and therefore lacking statistical power. Thus, to comprehensively understand the available clinical evidence on various immunotherapy approaches for MCC, we also delve into the epidemiology and immune biology of this cancer. Nevertheless, while randomized studies directly comparing immune checkpoint inhibitors and chemotherapy in MCC are lacking, immunotherapy shows response rates comparable to those previously reported with chemotherapy but with more enduring responses. Notably, adjuvant nivolumab has proven superiority to the standard-of-care therapy (observation) in the adjuvant setting.

Childhood and adolescence factors and multiple sclerosis: results from the German National Cohort (NAKO)

BACKGROUND

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) represents the most common inflammatory neurological disease causing disability in early adulthood. Childhood and adolescence factors might be of relevance in the development of MS. We aimed to investigate the association between various factors (e.g., prematurity, breastfeeding, daycare attendance, weight history) and MS risk.

METHODS

Data from the baseline assessment of the German National Cohort (NAKO) were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between childhood and adolescence factors and risk of MS. Analyses stratified by sex were conducted.

RESULTS

Among a total of 204,273 participants, 858 reported an MS diagnosis. Male sex was associated with a decreased MS risk (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.41-0.56), while overweight (HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.41-2.94) and obesity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.02-3.48) at 18 years of age compared to normal weight were associated with increased MS risk. Having been breastfed for ≤ 4 months was associated with a decreased MS risk in men (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.40-0.86) compared to no breastfeeding. No association with MS risk was observed for the remaining factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Apart from overweight and obesity at the age of 18 years, we did not observe considerable associations with MS risk. The proportion of cases that can be explained by childhood and adolescence factors examined in this study was low. Further investigations of the association between the onset of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence and its interaction with physical activity and MS risk seem worthwhile.

Differences in Anthropometric Measures Based on Sex, Age, and Health Status: Findings From the German National Cohort (NAKO)

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a worldwide health problem. We conducted detailed analyses of anthropometric measures in a comprehensive, population-based, current cohort in Germany.

METHODS

In the German National Cohort (NAKO), we analyzed cross-sectional data on body-mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumference, subcutaneous (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) as measured by ultrasound, and body fat percentage. The data were stratified by sex, age, and self-reported physicians' diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), metabolic diseases (MetD), cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), and cancer.

RESULTS

Data were available from 204 751 participants (age, 49.9 ± 12.8 years; 50.5% women). Body size measures generally increased with age. Men had a higher BMI, larger waist circumference, and more VAT than women, while women had a larger hip circumference, more SAT, and a higher body fat percentage than men. For example, the mean BMI of participants over age 60 was 28.3 kg/m2 in men and 27.6 kg/m2 in women. CVD, MetD, and CMD were associated with higher anthropometric values, while cancer was not. For example, the mean BMI was 25.3 kg/m2 in healthy women, 29.4 kg/m2 in women with CMD, and 25.4 kg/m2 in women with cancer.

CONCLUSION

Obesity is widespread in Germany, with notable differences between the sexes in anthropometric values. Obesity was more common in older participants and those with chronic diseases other than cancer. Elevated values were especially common in multimorbid individuals.

Epidemiology and Prognostic Implications of Coronary Artery Calcium in Asymptomatic Individuals With Prediabetes: A Multicohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology and prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in individuals with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We pooled participants free of clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) from four prospective cohorts: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, Framingham Heart Study, and Jackson Heart Study. Two definitions were used for prediabetes: inclusive (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ≥100 to <126 mg/dL and hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, and no glucose-lowering medications) and restrictive (FPG ≥110 to <126 mg/dL and HbA1c ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, among participants not taking glucose-lowering medications).

RESULTS

The study included 13,376 participants (mean age 58 years; 54% women; 57% White; 27% Black). The proportions with CAC ≥100 were 17%, 22%, and 37% in those with euglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes, respectively. Over a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up time of 14.6 (interquartile range 7.8-16.4) years, individuals with prediabetes and CAC ≥100 had a higher unadjusted 10-year incidence of ASCVD (13.4%) than the overall group of those with diabetes (10.6%). In adjusted analyses, using the inclusive definition of prediabetes, compared with euglycemia, the hazard ratios (HRs) for ASCVD were 0.79 (95% CI 0.62, 1.01) for prediabetes and CAC 0, 0.70 (0.54, 0.89) for prediabetes and CAC 1-99, 1.54 (1.27, 1.88) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100, and 1.64 (1.39, 1.93) for diabetes. Using the restrictive definition, the HR for ASCVD was 1.63 (1.29, 2.06) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC ≥100 is frequent among individuals with prediabetes and identifies a high ASCVD risk subgroup in which the adjusted ASCVD risk is similar to that in individuals with diabetes.

Differences in risk profile associated with varicose veins and chronic venous insufficiency - results from the Bonn Vein Study 1

Background: The aim of this publication is to demonstrate similarities and differences in the association of risk factors with the prevalence of different manifestations of chronic venous disease (CVD), like varicose veins (VV), venous oedema (C3) and severe chronic venous insufficiency (CVI) in the population-based cross-sectional Bonn Vein Study 1 (BVS). Patients and methods: In the BVS 1 between 13.11.2000 and 15.3.2002, 3.072 participants, 1350 men and 1722 women, from a simple random sample of the general population of the city of Bonn and two rural townships aged 18-79 years were included. The overall response proportion was 59%. All participants answered a standardized questionnaire including information about socio-economic data, lifestyle, physical activity, medical history, and quality of life. Venous investigations were performed clinically and by a standardized duplex examination by trained investigators. The CEAP classification in the version of 1996 was used to classify the findings. Logistic regression models were performed for the association of possible risk factors with VV, venous edema (C3) and severe CVI (C4-C6). The predictive risk (PR) describes the association of the diseases and the possible influencing factors. Results: VV, venous oedema (C3) and severe CVI (C4-C6) have common risk factors like higher age, number of pregnancies, family history of VV and overweight or obesity. Female gender is significantly associated with VV and C3 but not with severe CVI (C4-C6). High blood pressure and urban living are only associated with C3 and C4-C6 disease whereas prolonged sitting is associated with C3 and lower social class with C4-C6 exclusively. Discussion: In many epidemiological studies risk factors were associated with chronic venous disorders in general. Our data show that VV, venous edema and severe CVI may have different risk profiles. Venous edema is more often associated with arterial hypertension and sedentary lifestyle whereas lower social class seems to be a risk factor for severe CVI including venous ulcers. Conclusions: The differences in the association of risk factors to VV, venous edema and severe CVI should be considered if prevention and treatment of chronic venous diseases are planned. As examples, compression stockings could be proposed in sitting profession to prevent oedema, VV patients with risk factors like obesity might benefit from early treatment for VV and obesity. More longitudinal evaluation of risk factors is necessary to evaluate the true risk profile of CVD.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Association of antibiotic treatment with survival outcomes in treatment-naïve melanoma patients receiving immune checkpoint blockade

PURPOSE

The interaction of gut microbiome and immune system is being studied with increasing interest. Disturbing factors, such as antibiotics may impact the immune system via gut and interfere with tumor response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB).

METHODS

In this multicenter retrospective cohort study exclusively treatment-naïve patients with cutaneous or mucosal melanoma treated with first-line anti-PD-1 based ICB for advanced, non-resectable disease between 06/2013 and 09/2018 were included. Progression-free (PFS), and overall survival (OS) according to antibiotic exposure (within 60 days prior to ICB and after the start of ICB vs. no antibiotic exposure) were analyzed. To account for immortal time bias, data from patients with antibiotics during ICB were analyzed separately in the time periods before and after start of antibiotics.

RESULTS

Among 578 patients with first-line anti-PD1 based ICB, 7% of patients received antibiotics within 60 days prior to ICB and 19% after starting ICB. Antibiotic exposure prior to ICB was associated with worse PFS (adjusted HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.22-2.52]) and OS (adjusted HR 1.64 [95% CI 1.04-2.58]) by multivariate analysis adjusting for potential confounders. The use of antibiotics after the start of ICB had no effect on either PFS (adjusted HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.89-1.60) or OS (adjusted HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.75-1.57).

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic exposure within 60 days prior to ICB seems to be associated with worse PFS and OS in melanoma patients receiving first-line anti-PD1 based therapy, whereas antibiotics after the start of ICB do not appear to affect PFS or OS.

Oral Anticoagulation and Mortality in Cases with Intracranial Bleeding: Analysis of Nationwide Prescription and Hospitalization Data

OBJECTIVES

 To demonstrate the safety of direct oral anticoagulants in relation to intracranial bleeding (ICB), we compared the number of patients taking anticoagulants in all cases of hospitalization and cases of hospitalization for ICB over time in Germany. We analyzed the intrahospital mortality of ICB cases in relation to long-term use of anticoagulants (LUAs).We performed a retrospective registry analysis of nationwide German hospitalizations including all hospital admissions and admission for ICB in patients aged ≥60 years in the period from 2006 to 2020 and separated for LUAs.

RESULTS

 In 2006, the age-standardized rate of hospitalized male patients with LUAs was 7.3% and that of female patients was 5.6%. In 2020, the rates increased to 22.0 and 17.7% for male and female patients, respectively. Among patients hospitalized for ICB in 2006, 7.0 and 5.6% were male and female patients with LUAs, respectively. In 2020, the rate increased to 13.7% for males and 10.8% for females.In 2006, age-standardized mortality rates of male and female patients with ICB without LUAs were 24.1 and 23.9%, respectively. In 2020, the rate slightly decreased to 22.7% in males, but it remained almost unchanged in females at 23.8%. In the cases with LUA, the mortality rate decreased from 30.1 to 24.3% in males and from 28.4 to 24.2% in females in the same period.

CONCLUSION

 LUA seems to be safe because there is a slower increase of the rate of LUAs in ICB cases than in generally hospitalized cases in the period from 2006 to 2020. In addition, mortality in ICB cases with LUA tends to decrease compared to cases without LUA.

Aggregation of type-2 diabetes, prediabetes, and metabolic syndrome in German couples

We aimed to examine the concordance of type-2 diabetes, prediabetes and the metabolic syndrome in couples. In cross-sectional analyses, we used data from 1173 couples with index persons from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (2011-2015), a population-based cohort study in Western Germany, and partners from the associated Heinz Nixdorf Multigeneration Study (2013-2016). Mean age (standard deviation) was 67.2 (6.6) years in index persons, and 67.8 (7.7) years in partners. The exposure was the presence of diabetes, prediabetes or metabolic syndrome in index persons, the outcome was the presence of the same health status in partners. Diabetes was defined by either self-reported diagnosis, intake of antidiabetic drugs or insulin, or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%. If the index person had prediabetes or diabetes, the partner was 1.46 (95% CI 1.07-2.00) times more likely to have diabetes than partners of index persons without the condition in the crude model (adjusted model: 1.33 (0.97-1.83)). For self-reported diabetes and for the metabolic syndrome, the corresponding prevalence ratios were 1.33 (0.90-1.97) and 1.17 (1.03-1.32), respectively (adjusted models: 1.23 (0.77-1.94), 1.04 (0.91-1.18)). In German couples, there was weak to moderate concordance of type-2 diabetes, prediabetes and the metabolic syndrome in crude, but poor concordance in adjusted models.

Synergism between coexisting eye diseases and sex in increasing the prevalence of the dry eye syndrome

The aim was to investigate prevalence of dry eye syndrome (DES) in a population-based sample in Germany. The association between coexisting eye diseases and DES was also of interest. We recontacted participants of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study between 2018 and 2021 by postal questionnaire that included the Women's Health Study questionnaire on DES. We estimated prevalence of DES and examined DES-associated factors among 2095 participants aged 62-91 years. We performed interaction analyses between sex and coexisting eye diseases in relation to the DES prevalence and performed bias analyses to examine the robustness of the results. The DES prevalence was 31.5% (34-36% after correction for potential non-response bias, 24.1% after correction for outcome misclassification) and it was almost 2.1-times higher in women than in men (women 42.3%, men 20.4%). Among DES subjects, 70.3% had received treatment in the previous 12 months. There was synergism between female sex and coexisting eye diseases (cataract, glaucoma, macular degeneration) in terms of DES prevalence. The extrapolated numbers of patients aged 62-91 years with DES in Germany are 1.1-1.3 million men and 6.1-6.8 million women. The observed synergism may be explained by differences in ocular physiology, subjective perception and response behavior. Women with eye diseases (cataract, glaucoma, macula degeneration) appear to have a markedly higher susceptibility to suffer from DES than men, so that a diagnostic workup of DES symptoms is particularly justified in women with these eye diseases.

Chronic disease outcome metadata from German observational studies - public availability and FAIR principles

Metadata from epidemiological studies, including chronic disease outcome metadata (CDOM), are important to be findable to allow interpretability and reusability. We propose a comprehensive metadata schema and used it to assess public availability and findability of CDOM from German population-based observational studies participating in the consortium National Research Data Infrastructure for Personal Health Data (NFDI4Health). Additionally, principal investigators from the included studies completed a checklist evaluating consistency with FAIR principles (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, Reusability) within their studies. Overall, six of sixteen studies had complete publicly available CDOM. The most frequent CDOM source was scientific publications and the most frequently missing metadata were availability of codes of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Principal investigators' main perceived barriers for consistency with FAIR principles were limited human and financial resources. Our results reveal that CDOM from German population-based studies have incomplete availability and limited findability. There is a need to make CDOM publicly available in searchable platforms or metadata catalogues to improve their FAIRness, which requires human and financial resources.

Early or late initiation of dabigatran versus vitamin-K-antagonists in acute ischemic stroke or TIA: The PRODAST study

BACKGROUND

The optimal timing of initiating or resuming anticoagulation after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is debated. Dabigatran, a non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC), has shown superiority against vitamin K antagonists (VKA) regarding hemorrhagic complications.

AIMS

In this registry study, we investigated the initiation of dabigatran in the early phase after AIS or TIA.

METHODS

PRODAST (Prospective Record of the Use of Dabigatran in Patients with Acute Stroke or TIA) is a prospective, multicenter, observational, post-authorization safety study. We recruited 10,039 patients at 86 German stroke units between July 2015 and November 2020. A total of 3,312 patients were treated with dabigatran or VKA and were eligible for the analysis that investigates risks for major hemorrhagic events within 3 months after early (⩽ 7 days) or late (> 7 days) initiation of dabigatran or VKA initiated at any time. Further endpoints were recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, TIA, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, death, and a composite endpoint of stroke, systemic embolism, life-threatening bleeding and death.

RESULTS

Major bleeding event rates per 10,000 treatment days ranged from 1.9 for late administered dabigatran to 4.9 for VKA. Early or late initiation of dabigatran was associated with a lower hazard for major hemorrhages as compared to VKA use. The difference was pronounced for intracranial hemorrhages with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10-2.21) for early dabigatran use versus VKA use and an adjusted HR of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-13.11) for late dabigatran use versus VKA use. No differences were found between early initiation of dabigatran versus VKA use regarding ischemic endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

The early application of dabigatran appears to be safer than VKA administered at any time point with regards to the risk of hemorrhagic complications and in particular for intracranial hemorrhage. This result, however, must be interpreted with caution in view of the low precision of the estimate.

Effect of serum creatinine difference between the Jaffe and the enzymatic method on kidney disease detection and staging

Background

Serum creatinine (SCr), mainly determined by the Jaffe or an enzymatic method, is the central marker to assess kidney function. Deviations between these two methods may affect the diagnosis and staging of acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

The results of the first parallel SCr measurement (Jaffe and enzymatic method) of adult in- and outpatients in the same serum sample at the University Hospital Essen (Essen, Germany) between 2020-2022 were retrospectively evaluated. A Bland-Altman plot with 95% limits of agreement (LoAs) was used to assess the difference between the Jaffe and the enzymatic SCr (eSCr) method. We used the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for determination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines.

Results

A total of 41 144 parallel SCr measurements were evaluated. On average, Jaffe SCr was 0.07 mg/dl higher than eSCr (LoA -0.12; 0.25 mg/dl). In 19% of all cases there was a different CKD stage when comparing eGFR between both SCr methods, of which 98% resulted in a more severe CKD stage determined with Jaffe SCr. In 1.6% of all cases Jaffe SCr was ≥0.3 mg/dl higher than eSCr.

Conclusion

The present study showed that methods of SCr measurement may affect both the diagnosis and staging of AKI and CKD. This must be taken into account when interpreting measurements of renal function in everyday clinical practice, but also when planning and comparing studies on renal diseases. One should therefore stay with one method for SCr measurement, preferably with the enzymatic method.

Testicular cancer mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean: trend analysis from 1997 to 2019

BACKGROUND

In the last decades, an increasing incidence of testicular cancer has been observed in several countries worldwide. Although mortality rates have been variable in many countries, little information is available from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Therefore, we examined mortality trends of testicular cancer in the last two decades.

METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of testicular cancer per 100,000 men-years were estimated using the World Health Organization mortality database from 1997 to 2019. We examined the mortality trends and computed annual percent change (APC) for all ages and the following age groups, 15-29, 30-44, 15-44, and ≥ 45 years.

RESULTS

Ten countries had mortality rates greater than 0.43 per 100,000 men, with the highest rates for Chile, Mexico, and Argentina. Significant increases in mortality rates were observed in Argentina, Brazil Colombia, and Mexico in all ages, and < 45 years, while Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru reported significant downward trends in males aged ≥ 45 years. Only Chile showed significant decreases for all ages and age groups studied.

CONCLUSION

Mortality by testicular cancer increased among LAC countries in males of all ages and across age groups. A reduction in mortality rates was observed only in Chilean males of all ages and in men ≥ 45 years in several countries. Strengthening of early detection among symptomatic males may decrease the mortality by this neoplasm.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and prevalent nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Background

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a disease characterized by lipid accumulation within hepatocytes, ranging from simple steatosis to steatohepatitis, in the absence of secondary causes of hepatic fat accumulation. Although air pollution (AP) has been associated with several conditions related to NAFLD (e.g., metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus), few studies have explored an association between AP and NAFLD. The aim of the study was to investigate whether exposure to AP is associated with NAFLD prevalence.

Methods

We used baseline cross-sectional data (2000-2003) of the Heinz-Nixdorf-Recall cohort study in Germany (baseline n = 4,814), a prospective population-based cohort study in the urbanized Ruhr Area. Mean annual exposure to size-fractioned particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, PMcoarse, and PM2.5abs), nitrogen dioxide, and particle number was assessed using two different exposure models: a chemistry transport dispersion model, which captures urban background AP exposure on a 1 km2 grid at participant's residential addresses, and a land use regression model, which captures point-specific AP exposure at participant's residential addresses. NAFLD was assessed with the fatty liver index (n = 4,065), with NAFLD defined as fatty liver index ≥60. We estimated ORs of NAFLD per interquartile range of exposure using logistic regression, adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle variables.

Results

We observed a NAFLD prevalence of 31.7% (n = 1,288). All air pollutants were positively associated with NAFLD prevalence, with an OR per interquartile range for PM2.5 of 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00, 1.24) using chemistry transport model, and 1.06 (95% CI = 0.94, 1.19) using the land use regression model, respectively.

Conclusion

There was a positive association between long-term AP exposure and NAFLD.

Distance-Metric Learning for Personalized Survival Analysis

Personalized time-to-event or survival prediction with right-censored outcomes is a pervasive challenge in healthcare research. Although various supervised machine learning methods, such as random survival forests or neural networks, have been adapted to handle such outcomes effectively, they do not provide explanations for their predictions, lacking interpretability. In this paper, an alternative method for survival prediction by weighted nearest neighbors is proposed. Fitting this model to data entails optimizing the weights by learning a metric. An individual prediction of this method can be explained by providing the user with the most influential data points for this prediction, i.e., the closest data points and their weights. The strengths and weaknesses in terms of predictive performance are highlighted on simulated data and an application of the method on two different real-world datasets of breast cancer patients shows its competitiveness with established methods.

Statistical inference and effect measures in abstracts of randomized controlled trials, 1975-2021. A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To examine the time trend of statistical inference, statistical reporting style of results, and effect measures from the abstracts of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

STUDY DESGIN AND SETTINGS

We downloaded 385,867 PubMed abstracts of RCTs from 1975 to 2021. We used text-mining to detect reporting of statistical inference (p-values, confidence intervals, significance terminology), statistical reporting style of results, and effect measures for binary outcomes, including time-to-event measures. We validated the text mining algorithms by random samples of abstracts.

RESULTS

A total of 320 676 abstracts contained statistical inference. The percentage of abstracts including statistical inference increased from 65% (1975) to 87% (2006) and then decreased slightly. From 1975 to 1990, the sole reporting of language regarding statistical significance was predominant. Since 1990, reporting of p-values without confidence intervals has been the most common reporting style. Reporting of confidence intervals increased from 0.5% (1975) to 29% (2021). The two most common effect measures for binary outcomes were hazard ratios and odds ratios. Number needed to treat and number needed to harm are reported in less than 5% of abstracts with binary endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

Reporting of statistical inference in abstracts of RCTs has increased over time. Increasingly, p-values and confidence intervals are reported rather than just mentioning the presence of "statistical significance". The reporting of odds ratios comes with the liability that the untrained reader will interpret them as risk ratios, which is often not justified, especially in RCTs.

OECD indicator 'AMI 30-day mortality' is neither comparable between countries nor suitable as indicator for quality of acute care

BACKGROUND

Hospital mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI, ICD-10: I21-I22) is used as OECD indicator of the quality of acute care. The reported AMI hospital mortality in Germany is more than twice as high as in the Netherlands or Scandinavia. Yet, in Europe, Germany ranks high in health spending and availability of cardiac procedures. We provide insights into this contradictory situation.

METHODS

Information was collected on possible factors causing the reported differences in AMI mortality such as prevalence of risk factors or comorbidities, guideline conform treatment, patient registration, and health system structures of European countries. International experts were interviewed. Data on OECD indicators 'AMI 30-day mortality using unlinked data' and 'average length of stay after AMI' were used to describe the association between these variables graphically and by linear regression.

RESULTS

Differences in prevalence of risk factors or comorbidities or in guideline conform acute care account only to a smaller extent for the reported differences in AMI hospital mortality. It is influenced mainly by patient registration rules and organization of health care. Non-reporting of day cases as patients and centralization of AMI care-with more frequent inter-hospital patient transfers-artificially lead to lower calculated hospital mortality. Frequency of patient transfers and national reimbursement policies affect the average length of stay in hospital which is strongly associated with AMI hospital mortality (adj R2 = 0.56). AMI mortality reported from registries is distorted by different underlying populations.

CONCLUSION

Most of the variation in AMI hospital mortality is explained by differences in patient registration and organization of care instead of differences in quality of care, which hinders cross-country comparisons of AMI mortality. Europe-wide sentinel regions with comparable registries are necessary to compare (acute) care after myocardial infarction.

A historical note about the sufficient cause model with special consideration of the work of Max Verworn 1912

PURPOSE

The aim of this paper is to present the historical roots of the sufficient component cause model, which is very well known in epidemiology.

METHODS

I have analyzed Max Verworn's writings on the description of the sufficient component cause model.

RESULTS

Verworn introduced a precursor of the sufficient component cause model as early as 1912, possibly inspired by Ernst Mach. He argued for the abandonment of the concept of "cause" (singular). Instead, he preferred the term "conditions." Unlike Karl Pearson, Verworn was not opposed to causal considerations. However, according to Verworn, every process or state is determined by numerous conditions and not by a single factor or "cause." Instead of speaking of causalism, Verworn preferred to speak of conditionalism.

CONCLUSIONS

The earliest description of the concept of the sufficient component cause model known in the epidemiological literature since 1976 dates back at least to 1912.

Adjuvant treatment and outcome of stage III melanoma patients: Results of a multicenter real-world German Dermatologic Cooperative Oncology Group (DeCOG) study

PURPOSE

Clinical trials demonstrated significantly improved recurrence-free survival (RFS) of melanoma patients receiving adjuvant treatment. As data from controlled trials are based on selected populations, we investigated adjuvantly treated stage III melanoma patients under real-world conditions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a prior multicenter cohort study, stage III-IV melanoma patients were analysed for their choice of adjuvant therapy. In this follow-up study, we examined RFS, overall and melanoma-specific survival (MSS) and response to the subsequent treatment of 589 stage III patients (232 BRAF-mutated) receiving adjuvant PD-1 inhibitors (PD1; n = 479) or targeted therapy (TT; n = 110).

RESULTS

The median follow-up of the total cohort was 25.7 months. The main reason for premature discontinuation of adjuvant therapy was disease progression in PD1- (28.8%, n = 138/479) and adverse events in TT-treated patients (28.2%, n = 31/110). Among BRAF-mutated patients, RFS at 24 months was 49% (95% CI 40.6-59.0%) for PD1- and 67% (95% CI 58-77%) for TT-treated patients. The risk of recurrence was higher for BRAF-mutated PD1 than TT (hazard ratio 1.99; 95% CI 1.34-2.96; hazard ratio adjusted for age, sex and tumour stage, 2.21; 95% CI 1.48-3.30). Twenty-four months MSS was 87% (95% CI 81.0-94.1) for PD1 and 92% (95% CI 86.6-97.0) for TT. Response to subsequent systemic treatment for unresectable disease was 22% for all PD1- and 16% for TT-treated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

PD1-treated patients had more and earlier recurrences than TT patients. In BRAF-mutated patients, adjuvant TT might prevent early recurrences more effectively than PD1 treatment. Management of recurrence despite adjuvant treatment is challenging, with low response to current therapeutic options.

Population-Based Clinical Cancer Registration in Germany

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, a new federal law obligated all German federal states to collect additional clinical data in population-based cancer registries as an active tool for monitoring and improving the quality of cancer care, increasing transparency and promoting health research. Now, 10 years later, the current status of the expanded cancer registration is presented, including current figures on cancer in Germany.

METHODS

Reporting of cancer is mandatory for physicians, and about 5 to 10 reports from different healthcare providers are expected for each case. A uniform national dataset of about 130 items is used, and reports are usually sent electronically to the registry. We used the most recent data available from cancer registries up to the year of diagnosis in 2019. We calculated incidence rates and 5-year relative survival (5YRS) for common cancers. Data on clinical outcomes and benchmarking based on quality indicators (QIs) from guidelines were provided by the Cancer Registry Schleswig-Holstein (CR SH).

RESULTS

All federal state cancer registries met most of the previously defined national eligibility criteria. Approximately 505,000 cancer cases were registered in 2019, with breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer being the most common cancers. The age-standardised cancer incidence has slightly decreased during the last decade. and spatial heterogeneity can be observed within Germany. 5YRS for all cancers was 67% and 63% for women and men, respectively. Therapy data for rectal cancer in 2019-2021 from the CR SH are shown as an example: 69% of the registered patients underwent surgery, mostly with curative intent (84%) and tumour-free resection (91%). Radiotherapy was given to 33% of the patients, and chemotherapy was given to 40%. Three selected QIs showed differences between involved healthcare providers.

DISCUSSION

The implementation of population-based clinical cancer registration can be considered a success. Comprehensive recording of diagnosis, treatment and disease progression and the use of registry data for quality assurance, benchmarking and feedback have been implemented.

Outcome after intracranial hemorrhage under dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab versus under vitamin-K-antagonists - the RIC-ICH study

BACKGROUND

Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a rare but serious side effect associated with the use of oral anticoagulants, such as dabigatran. The specific reversal agent for dabigatran, idarucizumab, is available for the management of individuals with ICH. The aim of this study was to provide real-world evidence on patients with ICH and effective treatment with dabigatran and reversal with idarucizumab in clinical routine compared to those under effective treatment with vitamin-K-antagonist (VKA).

METHODS

Registration of Idarucizumab for Patients with IntraCranial Hemorrhage (RIC-ICH) is a non-interventional study conducted in 22 German stroke units that prospectively enrolled dabigatran patients treated with idarucizumab. Retrospective data from VKA patients served as reference population. Main objective was in-hospital mortality. Further objectives included change in bleeding volume, stroke severity, and functional status.

RESULT

In-hospital mortality was 26.7% in 15 dabigatran and 27.3% in 88 VKA patients (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.29-2.60). In patients with bleeding volume > 60 ml, mortality was lower in the dabigatran group (N = 6, 33%) compared to the VKA group (N = 15, 67%; HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.04-0.96). No differences were observed in secondary endpoints between dabigatran and VKA patients.

CONCLUSION

These results, based on data from routine clinical practice, suggest that in-hospital mortality after idarucizumab treatment is comparable to that in patients pretreated with VKA. Due to the low precision of estimates, the results must be interpreted with caution.

Associations of Migration, Socioeconomic Position and Social Relations With Depressive Symptoms - Analyses of the German National Cohort Baseline Data

Objectives: We analyze whether the prevalence of depressive symptoms differs among various migrant and non-migrant populations in Germany and to what extent these differences can be attributed to socioeconomic position (SEP) and social relations. Methods: The German National Cohort health study (NAKO) is a prospective multicenter cohort study (N = 204,878). Migration background (assessed based on citizenship and country of birth of both participant and parents) was used as independent variable, age, sex, Social Network Index, the availability of emotional support, SEP (relative income position and educational status) and employment status were introduced as covariates and depressive symptoms (PHQ-9) as dependent variable in logistic regression models. Results: Increased odds ratios of depressive symptoms were found in all migrant subgroups compared to non-migrants and varied regarding regions of origins. Elevated odds ratios decreased when SEP and social relations were included. Attenuations varied across migrant subgroups. Conclusion: The gap in depressive symptoms can partly be attributed to SEP and social relations, with variations between migrant subgroups. The integration paradox is likely to contribute to the explanation of the results. Future studies need to consider heterogeneity among migrant subgroups whenever possible.

Conventional Imaging, MRI and 18F-FDG PET/MRI for N and M Staging in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer

Background: This study compares the diagnostic potential of conventional staging (computed tomography (CT), axillary sonography and bone scintigraphy), whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and whole-body ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (¹⁸F-FDG PET/)MRI for N and M staging in newly diagnosed breast cancer. Methods: A total of 208 patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer were prospectively included in this study and underwent contrast-enhanced thoracoabdominal CT, bone scintigraphy and axillary sonography as well as contrast-enhanced whole-body ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI. The datasets were analyzed with respect to lesion localization and characterization. Histopathology and follow-up imaging served as the reference standard. A McNemar test was used to compare the diagnostic performance of conventional staging, MRI and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI and a Wilcoxon test was used to compare differences in true positive findings for nodal staging. Results: Conventional staging determined the N stage with a sensitivity of 80.9%, a specificity of 99.2%, a PPV (positive predictive value) of 98.6% and a NPV (negative predictive value) of 87.4%. The corresponding results for MRI were 79.6%, 100%, 100% and 87.0%, and were 86.5%, 94.1%, 91.7% and 90.3% for ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI. ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI was significantly more sensitive in determining malignant lymph nodes than conventional imaging and MRI (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0005). Furthermore, ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI accurately estimated the clinical lymph node stage in significantly more cases than conventional imaging and MRI (each p < 0.05). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for the M stage in conventional staging were 83.3%, 98.5%, 76.9% and 98.9%, respectively. The corresponding results for both MRI and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI were 100.0%, 98.5%, 80.0% and 100.0%. No significant differences between the imaging modalities were seen for the staging of distant metastases. Conclusions:¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI detects lymph node metastases in significantly more patients and estimates clinical lymph node stage more accurately than conventional imaging and MRI. No significant differences were found between imaging modalities with respect to the detection of distant metastases.

Accuracy of a Smartphone-Based Artificial Intelligence Application for Classification of Melanomas, Melanocytic Nevi, and Seborrheic Keratoses

Current artificial intelligence algorithms can classify melanomas at a level equivalent to that of experienced dermatologists. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a smartphone-based "You Only Look Once" neural network model for the classification of melanomas, melanocytic nevi, and seborrheic keratoses. The algorithm was trained using 59,090 dermatoscopic images. Testing was performed on histologically confirmed lesions: 32 melanomas, 35 melanocytic nevi, and 33 seborrheic keratoses. The results of the algorithm's decisions were compared with those of two skilled dermatologists and five beginners in dermatoscopy. The algorithm's sensitivity and specificity for melanomas were 0.88 (0.71-0.96) and 0.87 (0.76-0.94), respectively. The algorithm surpassed the beginner dermatologists, who achieved a sensitivity of 0.83 (0.77-0.87). For melanocytic nevi, the algorithm outclassed each group of dermatologists, attaining a sensitivity of 0.77 (0.60-0.90). The algorithm's sensitivity for seborrheic keratoses was 0.52 (0.34-0.69). The smartphone-based "You Only Look Once" neural network model achieved a high sensitivity and specificity in the classification of melanomas and melanocytic nevi with an accuracy similar to that of skilled dermatologists. However, a bigger dataset is required in order to increase the algorithm's sensitivity for seborrheic keratoses.

No evidence for seasonal variations of the incidence of testicular germ cell tumours in Germany

The pathogenesis of testicular germ cell tumours (GCTs) is still incompletely understood. Any progress in its understanding must derive from observational studies. Recently, it has been suggested that the incidence of GCTs may follow a seasonal pattern based on circannual changes in the Vitamin D serum levels, with maximum incidence rates in winter months. To examine this promising hypothesis, we studied monthly incidence rates of testicular GCTs in Germany by analysing 30,988 GCT cases aged 15-69 years, diagnosed during 2009-2019. Monthly incident case numbers with data regarding histology and patient age were obtained from the Robert Koch Institut, Berlin, along with annual male population counts. We used precision weighting for deriving pooled monthly incidence rates for GCTs of the period 2009-2019. We stratified pooled rates by histology (seminoma and nonseminoma) and age (15-39 and 40-69 years). By assuming a cyclical effect, we used an estimator of the intensity of seasonal occurrence and report seasonal relative risks (RR). The mean monthly incidence rate was 11.93/105 person-months. The seasonal RR for testicular cancer over-all is 1.022 (95% CI 1.000-1.054). The highest seasonal RR was found in the subgroup of nonseminoma aged 15-39 years, with a RR 1.044 (95% CI 1.000-1.112). The comparison of the pooled monthly rates of the winter months (October-March) with the summer months (April-September) revealed a maximum relative difference of 5% (95% CI 1-10%) for nonseminoma, aged 15-39 years. We conclude that there is no evidence of a seasonal variation of incidence rates of testicular cancer. Our results are at odds with an Austrian study, but the present data appear sound because the results were obtained with precision weighted monthly incidence rates in a large population of GCT cases.

Impact of oral anticoagulation on inhospital mortality of patients with hip fracture - Analysis of nationwide hospitalization data

OBJECTIVES

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) may have an impact on mortality in cases hospitalized for hip fracture (HF). We studied nationwide time trends of OAC prescriptions and compared time trends of inhospital mortality of HF cases with and without OAC in Germany DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Nationwide German hospitalization, Diagnosis-Related Groups Statistic PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: All hospital admissions for HF 60 years and older in the years 2006 through 2020.

INTERVENTION

Additional diagnosis with a personal history of long-term use of anticoagulants (ICD code Z92.1).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Inhospital mortality RESULTS: Cases hospitalized for HF 60 years and older increased by 29.5%. In 2006, 5.6% had a documented history of long-term use of OACs. This proportion rose to 20.1% in 2020. Age-standardized hospitalization mortality in HF cases without long-term use of OACs in males decreased steadily from 8.6% (95% confidence intervals 8.2 - 8.9) in 2006 to 6.6% (6.3 - 6.9) in 2020 and in females from 5.2% (5.0 - 5.3) to 3.9% (3.7 - 4.0). Mortality of HF cases with long-term use of OACs remained unchanged: males 7.0% (5.7 - 8.2) in 2006 and 7.3% (6.7 - 7.8) in 2020, females 4.8% (4.1 - 5.4) and 5.0% (4.7 - 5.3).

CONCLUSION

Inhospital mortality of HF cases with and without long-term OAC show different trends. In HF cases without OAC, mortality decreased from 2006 to 2020. In cases with OAC such a decrease could not be observed.

The interplay of family history of depression and early trauma: associations with lifetime and current depression in the German national cohort (NAKO)

Introduction

Family history of depression and childhood maltreatment are established risk factors for depression. However, how these factors are interrelated and jointly influence depression risk is not well understood. The present study investigated (i) if childhood maltreatment is associated with a family history of depression (ii) if family history and childhood maltreatment are associated with increased lifetime and current depression, and whether both factors interact beyond their main effects, and (iii) if family history affects lifetime and current depression via childhood maltreatment.

Methods

Analyses were based on a subgroup of the first 100,000 participants of the German National Cohort (NAKO), with complete information (58,703 participants, mean age = 51.2 years, 53% female). Parental family history of depression was assessed via self-report, childhood maltreatment with the Childhood Trauma Screener (CTS), lifetime depression with self-reported physician's diagnosis and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), and current depressive symptoms with the depression scale of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Generalized linear models were used to test main and interaction effects. Mediation was tested using causal mediation analyses.

Results

Higher frequencies of the childhood maltreatment measures were found in subjects reporting a positive family history of depression. Family history and childhood maltreatment were independently associated with increased depression. No statistical interactions of family history and childhood maltreatment were found for the lifetime depression measures. For current depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 sum score), an interaction was found, with stronger associations of childhood maltreatment and depression in subjects with a positive family history. Childhood maltreatment was estimated to mediate 7%-12% of the effect of family history on depression, with higher mediated proportions in subjects whose parents had a depression onset below 40 years. Abuse showed stronger associations with family history and depression, and higher mediated proportions of family history effects on depression than neglect.

Discussion

The present study confirms the association of childhood maltreatment and family history with depression in a large population-based cohort. While analyses provide little evidence for the joint effects of both risk factors on depression beyond their individual effects, results are consistent with family history affecting depression via childhood maltreatment to a small extent.

Inverse association between apolipoprotein C-II and cardiovascular mortality: role of lipoprotein lipase activity modulation

AIMS

Apolipoprotein C-II (ApoC-II) is thought to activate lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and is therefore a possible target for treating hypertriglyceridemia. Its relationship with cardiovascular risk has not been investigated in large-scale epidemiologic studies, particularly allowing for apolipoprotein C-III (ApoC-III), an LPL antagonist. Furthermore, the exact mechanism of ApoC-II-mediated LPL activation is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

ApoC-II was measured in 3141 LURIC participants of which 590 died from cardiovascular diseases during a median (inter-quartile range) follow-up of 9.9 (8.7-10.7) years. Apolipoprotein C-II-mediated activation of the glycosylphosphatidylinositol high-density lipoprotein binding protein 1 (GPIHBP1)-LPL complex was studied using enzymatic activity assays with fluorometric lipase and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) substrates. The mean ApoC-II concentration was 4.5 (2.4) mg/dL. The relationship of ApoC-II quintiles with cardiovascular mortality exhibited a trend toward an inverse J-shape, with the highest risk in the first (lowest) quintile and lowest risk in the middle quintile. Compared with the first quintile, all other quintiles were associated with decreased cardiovascular mortality after multivariate adjustments including ApoC-III as a covariate (all P < 0.05). In experiments using fluorometric substrate-based lipase assays, there was a bell-shaped relationship for the effect of ApoC-II on GPIHBP1-LPL activity when exogenous ApoC-II was added. In ApoC-II-containing VLDL substrate-based lipase assays, GPIHBP1-LPL enzymatic activity was almost completely blocked by a neutralizing anti-ApoC-II antibody.

CONCLUSION

The present epidemiologic data suggest that increasing low circulating ApoC-II levels may reduce cardiovascular risk. This conclusion is supported by the observation that optimal ApoC-II concentrations are required for maximal GPIHBP1-LPL enzymatic activity.

Estimates of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic strongly depend on subjective methodological choices

Excess mortality is often used to assess the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It involves comparing the number of deaths observed during the pandemic with the number of deaths that would counterfactually have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. However, published data on excess mortality often vary even for the same country. The reason for these discrepancies is that the estimation of excess mortality involves a number of subjective methodological choices. The aim of this paper was to summarize these subjective choices. In several publications, excess mortality was overestimated because population aging was not adjusted for. Another important reason for different estimates of excess mortality is the choice of different pre-pandemic reference periods that are used to estimate the expected number of deaths (e.g., only 2019 or 2015-2019). Other reasons for divergent results include different choices of index periods (e.g., 2020 or 2020-2021), different modeling to determine expected mortality rates (e.g., averaging mortality rates from previous years or using linear trends), the issue of accounting for irregular risk factors such as heat waves and seasonal influenza, and differences in the quality of the data used. We suggest that future studies present the results not only for a single set of analytic choices, but also for sets with different analytic choices, so that the dependence of the results on these choices becomes explicit.

On the gap between objective and perceived risks of COVID-19

A survey conducted by the German Socio-Economic Panel during the early phase of the SARS-CoV‑2 pandemic in spring 2020 showed that the perceived risks of SARS-CoV‑2 infection were a massive overestimation of the actual risks. A total of 5783 people (2.3% missing data) stated how likely they thought it was that SARS-CoV‑2 would cause a life-threatening illness in them in the next 12 months. The average subjective probability was 26%. We consider how such an overestimation could have occurred and how a more realistic risk assessment could be achieved in the population in a future pandemic. We show that qualitative attributes of the pandemic, the reporting of the media, and psychological features may have contributed to the overestimation of SARS-CoV‑2 risks. In its early stages, the SARS-CoV‑2 pandemic had qualitative characteristics known to lead to an overestimation of risks: The risks associated with the pandemic were new, unfamiliar, perceived as poorly controllable, and were taken involuntarily. Phenomena known from cognitive psychology such as the availability and anchor heuristics can also explain the overestimation of pandemic risks. Characteristics of media coverage such as the focus on individual fates and the associated neglect of the denominator also contributed to the gap between perceived and objective risk. In a potential future pandemic, people need to be vigilant but not in a panic. Better risk communication-for example, with better prepared figures and graphically presented percentages while avoiding the denominator neglect-could help the population to perceive risks of future pandemics more realistically.

The Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer in Younger and Older Patients

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown that the incidence of colorectal cancer among younger persons is rising. We investigated incidence trends and survival in the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

METHODS

Cancer registry data from the period 2008-2019 were classified into two age groups (15-54 and 55-99). In each age group, the standardized incidence, average annual percent change (AAPC), and relative 5-year survival (RS) were calculated and stratified according to the site, histology, size, and grade of the colorectal tumor.

RESULTS

167 919 cases were included, with adenocarcinoma accounting for 86.4%. In 2019, the age-standardized incidence per 100 000 person-years was 13.8 and 10.3 among men and women (respectively) in the younger age group, compared with 197.9 and 126.3 in the older age group. Over the study period from 2008 to 2019, the incidence declined among older men and women (AAPC -2.6% and -2.9%) but remained nearly constant among younger men and women (- 0.5% and -0.4%). The incidence of neuroendocrine, T1, and G2 tumors rose in both age groups (AAPC range: 2.3%-12.2%; 2.2%-8.3%, 6.3%-8.8%). Younger patients have a better RS, with the largest difference between age groups being found for neuroendocrine tumors (88% and 83% in younger men and women, 65% and 61% in older men and women).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of colorectal tumors has remained constant in persons under age 55 and declined in persons aged 55 and older. Nonetheless, the incidence of neuroendocrine tumors and of small and well-differentiated tumors has risen in both age groups. The trends among younger persons and the rise in neuroendocrine tumors merit further study.

Time trends in survival and causes of death in multiple myeloma: a population-based study from Germany

BACKGROUND

Steady evolution of therapies has improved prognosis of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) over the past two decades. Yet, knowledge about survival trends and causes of death in MM might play a crucial role in long-term management of this patient collective. Here, we investigate time trends in myeloma-specific survival at the population level over two decades and analyse causes of death in times of prolonged survival.

METHODS

Age-standardised and age group-specific relative survival (RS) of MM patients aged < 80 years at diagnosis was estimated for consecutive time periods from 2000-2019 using data from the Cancer Registry of North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. Conditional RS was estimated for patients who already survived one to five years post diagnosis. Causes of death in MM patients were analysed and compared to the general population using standardised mortality ratios (SMR).

RESULTS

Three thousand three hundred thirty-six MM cases were included in the time trend analysis. Over two decades, age-standardised 5-year RS increased from 37 to 62%. Age-specific survival improved from 41% in period 2000-2004 to 69% in period 2015-2019 in the age group 15-69 years, and from 23 to 47% in the age group 70-79 years. Conditional 5-year RS of patients who survived five years after diagnosis slightly improved as compared to unconditional 5-year RS at diagnosis. MM patients are two times more likely to die from non-myeloma malignancies (SMR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.81-2.15) and from cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.86-2.18) than the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognosis of patients with MM has markedly improved since the year 2000 due to therapeutic advances. Nevertheless, late mortality remains a major concern. As survival improves, second primary malignancies and cardiovascular events deserve increased attention.

Natural History of Varicose Veins of the Legs

Objective To assess the natural history of saphenous and non-saphenous varicose veins using the results of the Bonn Vein Studies and data published in literature.

Methods We used the data of the Bonn Vein Studies (BVS) 1 and 2 to assess if preexisting non-saphenous varicose veins (NSVV) in persons who had no saphenous varicose veins (SVV) at baseline have an impact on the incidence of SVV during the follow-up of 6.6 years and vice versa. SVV where defined as tortuous or not-tortuous refluxing saphenous veins. The statistical evaluation was performed using SAS version 9.4 (SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina). In addition, we performed a review of publications concerning the natural history of varicose veins (VV) using PubMed.

Results In the BVS the overall incidence of SVV within the follow-up time of 6.6 years was 8.0 % (n = 133 of 1661; 95 % CI: 6.8–9.4). 7.2 % (n = 107 of 1492) without VV in BVS 1 and 19.8 % (n = 26) of patients with preexisting NSVV developed SVV. The relative risk for the development of SVV in patients with preexisting NSVV was 2.44 (95% CI: 1.64–3.64) adjusted for age and sex. The overall incidence of NSVV was markedly higher with 13.3 % (n = 226 of 1661; 95 % CI: 11.8–15.1). During follow-up 148 patients (9.9 %) without VV in BVS 1 developed NSVV. 48.5 % (n = 78) of patients with preexisting SVV developed NSVV during follow-up. The relative risk for the development of NSVV in patients with preexisting SVV was 4.10 (95% CI: 3.26–5.16), adjusted for age and sex.

In published studies the development of VV is preceded by venous reflux. Initial VV may develop at any segment and the results from literature suggest that the location of VV and reflux at the time of the investigation depends on age. In younger individuals more distal location are reported with an ascending progression in the majority but also descending progression is possible.

Conclusions Based on the results of the Bonn Vein Studies 1 and 2 we could demonstrate, that preexisting SVV increase the risk of developing NSVV and preexisting NSVV increase the risk of developing SVV in a similar way. Venous reflux may initially occur in any segment of the venous system and may progress in antegrade and/or retrograde fashion. In younger adults initial VV seem to be localized more often in distal parts of the legs with an antegrade progression over time.

Temporal trends in referrals of RET gene carriers for neck surgery to a tertiary surgical center in the era of international management guidelines

PURPOSE

Thirty years into the genomic era, this study sought to explore events that helped transform the clinical landscape of hereditary medullary thyroid cancer (MTC).

METHOD

This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data included all RET carriers referred to a tertiary center for neck surgery that was performed between 1986 and 2021, using descriptive statistics and Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS

Altogether, 496 RET carriers were referred for thyroidectomy (388 carriers) or neck reoperation (108 carriers). Of these, 44 carriers had highest risk mutations (p.Met918Thr), 164 carriers high risk mutations (p.Cys634Arg/Gly/Phe/Ser/Trp/Tyr/insHisGluLeuCys), 116 carriers moderate-high risk mutations (p.Cys609/611/618/620/630Arg/Gly/Phe/Ser/Tyr) and 172 carriers low-moderate risk mutations (p.Glu768Asp, p.Leu790Phe, p.Val804Leu/Met, or p.Ser891Ala). Three event clusters drove referral numbers upward: a string of first reports of causative RET mutations between 1993 and 1998; the international consensus guidelines for diagnosis and therapy of MEN type 1 and type 2 in 2001; and the revised American Thyroid Association guidelines for the management of medullary thyroid carcinoma in 2015. Referrals for neck reoperation declined sluggishly over 30 years, ending in 2018. Index patients continued to be referred into 2021. Referrals for thyroidectomy, grouped in 5-year increments, peaked in 1996-2000 for carriers of highest and high risk mutations, and in 2006-2010 for carriers of moderate-high and low-moderate risk mutations, some 10 years later.

CONCLUSION

International management guidelines are critical in building and increasing the pressure towards screening of sporadic-appearing disease and offspring of known gene families by encompassing the complete disease spectrum early on.

[Regional Differences in Thyroid Function Parameters: A Comparison of European Cohort Studies]

AIM OF THE STUDY

The aim of the project was to investigate regional differences in thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), and free thyroxine (fT4) concentrations and iodine status in comparable German and European cohort studies.

METHODS

Sex- and age-stratified TSH, fT4, and urine iodine concentrations of thyroid-healthy participants (age group 45-75 years) of the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study in the Ruhr region of Germany, the southern German KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Augsburg Region) and northeastern German SHIP (Study of Health in Pomerania) studies, as well as the Norwegian HUNT (Nord-Trøndelag Health) study (age group 40-79 years), the English EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study, and the Dutch Rotterdam study were compared. The TSH reference range for the HNR study population was calculated and compared to the KORA and SHIP studies.

RESULTS

Regional differences showed a stronger influence on TSH and fT4 concentrations than sex and age of the subjects in the 45- to 75-year age group. The estimated difference in medians, as measured by the HNR study, was lowest in the SHIP study, -0.47 (95% CI: -0.53; -0.41) for men and -0.41 (-0.53; -0.41) for women. The Rotterdam study had the highest difference in medians for both men and women (men: 0.56 with 0.44; 0.68 and women: 0.62 with 0.46; 0.78). The lowest median TSH concentrations, across all age categories considered, were seen in the German cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparison of thyroid function parameters and iodine in elderly subjects between six comparable cohort studies from Germany and Europe showed a significant influence of region, which exceeded the sex and age dependence of the parameters.

Incidence and survival in patients with urachal carcinoma: Cancer registry analysis between 2008 and 2019

480

Background: Urachal carcinoma (UrC) is a rare and poorly studied cancer without evidence-based treatment strategies. Due to the low prevalence of this cancer, only sparse data on its incidence and survival are available. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence and survival rates of patients with UrC in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), a state of the Federal Republic of Germany. Methods: UrC (ICD-O-3: C67.7) diagnosed between 2008 and 2019 were identified via the NRW Cancer Registry (population 18 million) and classified according to Mayo-staging and T-category. Mayo stage was based on the TNM classification. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates using the European standard and Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS). Age was stated as mean and standard deviation (SD). Results: A total of 121 UrC patients were described, of which men were more frequently affected at 57%. The distribution for women was 43%. The mean age was 61.1 (SD: 15.5) years for men and 58.8 (SD: 15.3) years for women. The overall age-standardized incidence rate was 0.43 per 1.000.000 person-years, which was 0.5 for men and 0.37 for women. 85.1% had adenocarcinomas, 6.6% urothelial carcinoma, 4.1% unspecified cancer, 2.5% epithelial carcinomas, 0.8% squamous cell carcinomas or others, respectively. The 5-year OS rate were 60.4% (CI-95%: 48.9%; 74.7%) for men and 41.7% (CI-95%: 28.8%; 60.2%) for women. According to TNM classification, 33% of the patients presented with T1-2, 29.8% with T3-4, while for the Mayo staging a distribution of 17.4% for stage I-II and 13.2% for stage III-IV was shown. Data regarding T-category and Mayo-satging were available in 63.6% (44 patients) and 30.6% (84 patients), respectively. The 5-year OS was 73.3% (CI-95%: 59.3%; 90.6%) in T1-2, 37.2% (CI-95%: 23.6%; 58.6%) in T3-4. and 69.3% (CI-95%: 47.6%; 100%) and 25.6% (CI-95%: 9.89%; 66.49%) in Mayo stage I-II and III-IV, respectively. Conclusions: UrC is a rare cancer and OS rate in NRW were comparable to historical data. The prognosis was stage-dependent and identified poor outcome in patients with advanced disease. Our data underscored the role of proper staging and diagnosis for future clinical studies that investigate optimal treatment strategies.

Clinical Decision Support for Axillary Lymph Node Staging in Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancer Patients Based on 18F-FDG PET/MRI and Machine Learning

In addition to its high prognostic value, the involvement of axillary lymph nodes in breast cancer patients also plays an important role in therapy planning. Therefore, an imaging modality that can determine nodal status with high accuracy in patients with primary breast cancer is desirable. Our purpose was to investigate whether, in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients, machine-learning prediction models based on simple assessable imaging features on MRI or PET/MRI are able to determine nodal status with performance comparable to that of experienced radiologists; whether such models can be adjusted to achieve low rates of false-negatives such that invasive procedures might potentially be omitted; and whether a clinical framework for decision support based on simple imaging features can be derived from these models. Methods: Between August 2017 and September 2020, 303 participants from 3 centers prospectively underwent dedicated whole-body ¹⁸F-FDG PET/MRI. Imaging datasets were evaluated for axillary lymph node metastases based on morphologic and metabolic features. Predictive models were developed for MRI and PET/MRI separately using random forest classifiers on data from 2 centers and were tested on data from the third center. Results: The diagnostic accuracy for MRI features was 87.5% both for radiologists and for the machine-learning algorithm. For PET/MRI, the diagnostic accuracy was 89.3% for the radiologists and 91.2% for the machine-learning algorithm, with no significant differences in diagnostic performance between radiologists and the machine-learning algorithm for MRI (P = 0.671) or PET/MRI (P = 0.683). The most important lymph node feature was tracer uptake, followed by lymph node size. With an adjusted threshold, a sensitivity of 96.2% was achieved by the random forest classifier, whereas specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 68.2%, 78.1%, 93.8%, and 83.3%, respectively. A decision tree based on 3 simple imaging features could be established for MRI and PET/MRI. Conclusion: Applying a high-sensitivity threshold to the random forest results might potentially avoid invasive procedures such as sentinel lymph node biopsy in 68.2% of the patients.

Skin Cancer Screening and Medical Treatment Intensity in Patients with Malignant Melanoma and Non-Melanocytic Skin Cancer

BACKGROUND

This cohort study concerns the effect of skin cancer screening (SCS) on medical treatment intensity in patients with skin cancer.

METHODS

Routine data from persons aged 35 to 99 who were insured by the AOK health insurance company were used to identify persons who received a diagnosis of malignant melanoma or a non-melanocytic skin cancer in 2014 or 2015, either through skin cancer screening or without screening. These persons were included in cohort studies. The routine data contained no information on tumor stages or grading. Tumor-associated rates of hospital admission, contact with physicians in outpatient practice, and intensity of surgical treatment were determined; rate ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated.

RESULTS

The cohort studies included 13 633 patients with melanoma (6480 with SCS and 7153 without) and 118 168 patients with non-melanocytic skin cancer (43 308 with screening and 74 860 without). Patients whose melanomas had been detected by screening had a lower medical treatment intensity than unscreened patients (intensity of tumor-associated surgical treatment (RR = 0.79, 95% CI [0.74; 0.85]), hospital contact rate (RR = 0.44, 95% CI: [0.38; 0.50]), contact with physicians in outpatient practice (RR = 0.79, 95% CI: [0.73; 0.85]). Among patients with non-melanocytic skin cancer, the screened patients displayed a lower hospital contact rate (RR = 0.52, 95% CI: [0.49; 0.56]), a higher contact rate in the outpatient sector (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: [1.08; 1.13]), and no difference in surgical treatment intensity (RR = 0.98, 95% CI: [0.96; 1.00]).

CONCLUSION

SCS is associated with lower medical treatment intensity in the first 12 months after diagnosis in patients with melanoma. Among patients with non-melanocytic skin cancer, those who had been screened had lower hospital contact rates, but there was no observed lowering of other rates reflecting treatment intensity.

Diagnostic Cardiac CT for the Improvement of Cardiovascular Event Prediction

BACKGROUND

The aim of the long-term Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (observation period 20 years) was to establish the extent to which computed tomography (CT) improves the predictability of cardiovascular events relative to determination of risk factors alone.

METHODS

In the period 2000-2003, study staff examined 4355 probands (53% of them female) aged 45-75 years with no signs of cardiovascular disease. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) score was calculated on the basis of demographic data and cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiac CT was carried out over the same period and coronary artery calcification (CAC) was graded according to the Agatston score.

RESULTS

The median duration of follow-up was 18.2 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Myocardial infarction or stroke occurred in 458 (11%) of the 4154 participants with complete data. Overall, estimation of risk using a combination of ASCVD score and CAC grade was superior to the ASCVD score alone-even after 10 and 20 years. Classification into established risk categories improved by 12.2% (95% confidence interval: [5.3%; 18.1%]). In the highest ASCVD risk category, we observed occurrence of a cardiovascular event over 20 years for 14% [5.0%; 23.1%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 but for 34.2% [27.5%; 41.4%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400. In the lowest ASCVD risk category, an event occurred in 2.4% [1.4%; 3.7%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 and in 23.5% [2.3%; 35.8%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400.

CONCLUSION

Even after 20 years, individual risk prediction is improved by addition of CT-based determination of coronary artery calcification to the ASCVD score. Therefore, assessment of ASCVD risk factors should be complemented more widely by cardiac CT in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

[Factors Influencing Results of Mortality Measurement in the Corona Pandemic: Analyses of Mortality in Germany in 2020]

INTRODUCTION

(Excess) mortality and years of life lost are important measures of health risks from the Corona pandemic. The aim of this paper was to identify methodological factors that affect the calculation of mortality and further to point out possible misinterpretations of years of life lost.

METHODOLOGY

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) can be used to compare mortalities (e. g., an SMR of 1.015 means excess mortality of 1.5%, an SMR of 0.990 means that mortality is reduced by 1.0%). In this study, SMRs as a measure of association for mortality in Germany were calculated for 2020 using different methods. In particular, the influence of different data sources and reference periods was examined. Furthermore, its influence on the calculated mortality was also examined to take into account increasing life expectancy. In addition, published results on years of life lost were critically analyzed.

RESULTS

Using January 2022 data from the Federal Statistical Office on mortality for 5-year age groups resulted in higher SMR values than using preliminary data from February 2021 with 20-year age groups (SMR=0.997, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.995-0.999 versus SMR=0.976 (95% CI: 0.974-0.978)). The choice of the reference period had a large impact on calculated mortality (for men, SMR=1.024 (95% CI: 1.022-1.027) with 2019 as the reference year versus SMR=0.998 (95% CI: 0.996-1.001) with 2016 to 2019 as the reference period). Analyses in which declining mortality in 2016 to 2019 was carried forward into 2020 when calculating expected deaths resulted in significantly higher SMR values (for men SMR=1.024 (95% CI: 1.021-1.026) with, and SMR=0.998 (95% CI: 0.996-1.001) without carrying forward declining mortality). Figures for pandemic-related years of life lost per person who died from COVID-19 should be interpreted with caution: Calculation from remaining life reported in mortality tables can lead to misleading results.

CONCLUSION

When calculating mortality and years of life lost during the pandemic, a number of methodological assumptions must be made that have a significant impact on the results and must be considered when interpreting the results.