Review of the current TB human infection studies for use in accelerating TB vaccine development: A meeting report

Tools to evaluate and accelerate tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development are needed to advance global TB control strategies. Validated human infection studies for TB have the potential to facilitate breakthroughs in understanding disease pathogenesis, identify correlates of protection, develop diagnostic tools, and accelerate and de-risk vaccine and drug development. However, key challenges remain for realizing the clinical utility of these models, which require further discussion and alignment amongst key stakeholders. In March 2023, the Wellcome Trust and the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) convened international experts involved in developing both TB and Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) human infection studies (including mucosal and intradermal challenge routes) to discuss the status of each of the models and the key enablers to move the field forward. This report provides a summary of the presentations and discussion from the meeting. Discussions identified key issues, including demonstrating model validity, to provide confidence for vaccine developers, which may be addressed through demonstration of known vaccine effects, e.g. BCG vaccination in specific populations, and by comparing results from field efficacy and human infection studies. The workshop underscored the importance of establishing safe and acceptable studies in high-burden settings, and the need to validate more than one model to allow for different scientific questions to be addressed as well as to provide confidence to vaccine developers and regulators around use of human infection study data in vaccine development and licensure pathways.

Poor association between 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-induced serum and mucosal antibody responses with experimental Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B colonisation

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal carriage is the primary reservoir for transmissionand a prerequisite for invasive pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 (PCV13) showed a 62% efficacy in protection against experimental Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (Spn6B) carriage in a controlled human infection model (CHIM) of healthy Malawian adults. We, therefore, measured humoral responses to experimental challenge and PCV-13 vaccination and determined the association with protection against pneumococcal carriage.

METHODS

We vaccinated 204 young, healthy Malawian adults with PCV13 or placebo and nasally inoculated them with Spn6B at least four weeks post-vaccination to establish carriage. We collected peripheral blood and nasal lining fluid at baseline, 4 weeks post-vaccination (7 days pre-inoculation), 2, 7, 14 and > 1 year post-inoculation. We measured the concentration of anti-serotype 6B Capsular Polysaccharide (CPS) Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA antibodies in serum and nasal lining fluid using the World Health Organization (WHO) standardised enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

RESULTS

PCV13-vaccinated adults had higher serum IgG and nasal IgG/IgA anti-Spn6B CPS-specific binding antibodies than placebo recipients 4 to 6 weeks post-vaccination, which persisted for at least a year after vaccination. Nasal challenge with Spn6B did not significantly alter serum or nasal anti-CPS IgG binding antibody titers with or without experimental pneumococcal carriage. Pre-challenge titers of PCV13-induced serum IgG and nasal IgG/IgA anti-Spn6B CPS binding antibodies did not significantly differ between those that got experimentally colonised by Spn6B compared to those that did not.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that despite high PCV13 efficacy against experimental Spn6B carriage in young, healthy Malawian adults, robust vaccine-induced systemic and mucosal anti-Spn6B CPS binding antibodies did not directly relate to protection.

A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial of Nasal Immunization with Live Virulence Attenuated Streptococcus pneumoniae Strains Using Human Infection Challenge

Rationale: Pneumococcal pneumonia remains a global health problem. Pneumococcal colonization increases local and systemic protective immunity, suggesting that nasal administration of live attenuated Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) strains could help prevent infections. Objectives: We used a controlled human infection model to investigate whether nasopharyngeal colonization with attenuated S. pneumoniae strains protected against recolonization with wild-type (WT) Spn (SpnWT). Methods: Healthy adults aged 18-50 years were randomized (1:1:1:1) for nasal administration twice (at a 2-wk interval) with saline solution, WT Spn6B (BHN418), or one of two genetically modified Spn6B strains, SpnA1 (Δfhs/piaA) or SpnA3 (ΔproABC/piaA) (Stage I). After 6 months, participants were challenged with SpnWT to assess protection against the homologous serotype (Stage II). Measurements and Main Results: 125 participants completed both study stages per intention to treat. No serious adverse events were reported. In Stage I, colonization rates were similar among groups: SpnWT, 58.1% (18 of 31); SpnA1, 60% (18 of 30); and SpnA3, 59.4% (19 of 32). Anti-Spn nasal IgG levels after colonization were similar in all groups, whereas serum IgG responses were higher in the SpnWT and SpnA1 groups than in the SpnA3 group. In colonized individuals, increases in IgG responses were identified against 197 Spn protein antigens and serotype 6 capsular polysaccharide using a pangenome array. Participants given SpnWT or SpnA1 in Stage I were partially protected against homologous challenge with SpnWT (29% and 30% recolonization rates, respectively) at stage II, whereas those exposed to SpnA3 achieved a recolonization rate similar to that in the control group (50% vs. 47%, respectively). Conclusions: Nasal colonization with genetically modified live attenuated Spn was safe and induced protection against recolonization, suggesting that nasal administration of live attenuated Spn could be an effective strategy for preventing pneumococcal infections. Clinical trial registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN22467293).

Effect of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on experimental carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B in Blantyre, Malawi: a randomised controlled trial and controlled human infection study

BACKGROUND

The effect of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine implementation in Malawi is threatened by absence of herd effect. There is persistent vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in both vaccinated children and the wider community. We aimed to use a human infection study to measure 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) efficacy against pneumococcal carriage.

METHODS

We did a double-blind, parallel-arm, randomised controlled trial investigating the efficacy of PCV13 or placebo against experimental pneumococcal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (strain BHN418) among healthy adults (aged 18-40 years) from Blantyre, Malawi. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) to receive PCV13 or placebo. PCV13 and placebo doses were prepared by an unmasked pharmacist to maintain research team and participant masking with identification only by a randomisation identification number and barcode. 4 weeks after receiving either PCV13 or placebo, participants were challenged with 20 000 colony forming units (CFUs) per naris, 80 000 CFUs per naris, or 160 000 CFUs per naris by intranasal inoculation. The primary endpoint was experimental pneumococcal carriage, established by culture of nasal wash at 2, 7, and 14 days. Vaccine efficacy was estimated per protocol by means of a log-binomial model adjusting for inoculation dose. The trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202008503507113, and is now closed.

FINDINGS

Recruitment commenced on April 27, 2021 and the final visit was completed on Sept 12, 2022. 204 participants completed the study protocol (98 PCV13, 106 placebo). There were lower carriage rates in the vaccine group at all three inoculation doses (0 of 21 vs two [11%] of 19 at 20 000 CFUs per naris; six [18%] of 33 vs 12 [29%] of 41 at 80 000 CFUs per naris, and four [9%] of 44 vs 16 [35%] of 46 at 160 000 CFUs per naris). The overall carriage rate was lower in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group (ten [10%] of 98 vs 30 [28%] of 106; Fisher's p value=0·0013) and the vaccine efficacy against carriage was estimated at 62·4% (95% CI 27·7-80·4). There were no severe adverse events related to vaccination or inoculation of pneumococci.

INTERPRETATION

This is, to our knowledge, the first human challenge study to test the efficacy of a pneumococcal vaccine against pneumococcal carriage in Africa, which can now be used to establish vaccine-induced correlates of protection and compare alternative strategies to prevent pneumococcal carriage. This powerful tool could lead to new means to enhance reduction in pneumococcal carriage after vaccination.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Use of hospital services by patients with chronic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To estimate the prevalence of individual chronic conditions and multimorbidity among adults admitted to hospital in countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE®, Embase®, Global Index Medicus, Global Health and SciELO for publications reporting on patient cohorts recruited between 1 January 2010 and 12 May 2023. We included articles reporting prevalence of pre-specified chronic diseases within unselected acute care services (emergency departments or medical inpatient settings). No language restrictions were applied. We generated prevalence estimates using random-effects meta-analysis alongside 95% confidence intervals, 95% prediction intervals and I2 statistics for heterogeneity. To explore associations with age, sex, country-level income status, geographical region and risk of bias, we conducted pre-specified meta-regression, sub-group and sensitivity analyses.

Findings

Of 6976 identified studies, 61 met the inclusion criteria, comprising data from 20 countries and 376 676 people. None directly reported multimorbidity, but instead reported prevalence for individual conditions. Among medical admissions, the highest prevalence was human immunodeficiency virus infection (36.4%; 95% CI: 31.3-41.8); hypertension (24.4%; 95% CI: 16.7-34.2); diabetes (11.9%; 95% CI: 9.9-14.3); heart failure (8.2%; 95% CI: 5.6-11.9); chronic kidney disease (7.7%; 95% CI: 3.9-14.7); and stroke (6.8%; 95% CI: 4.7-9.6).

Conclusion

Among patients seeking hospital care in sub-Saharan Africa, multimorbidity remains poorly described despite high burdens of individual chronic diseases. Prospective public health studies of multimorbidity burden are needed to generate integrated and context-specific health system interventions that act to maximize patient survival and well-being.

A health systems approach to critical care delivery in low-resource settings: a narrative review

There is a high burden of critical illness in low-income countries (LICs), adding pressure to already strained health systems. Over the next decade, the need for critical care is expected to grow due to ageing populations with increasing medical complexity; limited access to primary care; climate change; natural disasters; and conflict. In 2019, the 72nd World Health Assembly emphasised that an essential part of universal health coverage is improved access to effective emergency and critical care and to "ensure the timely and effective delivery of life-saving health care services to those in need". In this narrative review, we examine critical care capacity building in LICs from a health systems perspective. We conducted a systematic literature search, using the World Heath Organisation (WHO) health systems framework to structure findings within six core components or "building blocks": (1) service delivery; (2) health workforce; (3) health information systems; (4) access to essential medicines and equipment; (5) financing; and (6) leadership and governance. We provide recommendations using this framework, derived from the literature identified in our review. These recommendations are useful for policy makers, health service researchers and healthcare workers to inform critical care capacity building in low-resource settings.

Practical considerations for a TB controlled human infection model (TB-CHIM); the case for TB-CHIM in Africa, a systematic review of the literature and report of 2 workshop discussions in UK and Malawi

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major challenge in many domains including diagnosis, pathogenesis, prevention, treatment, drug resistance and long-term protection of the public health by vaccination. A controlled human infection model (CHIM) could potentially facilitate breakthroughs in each of these domains but has so far been considered impossible owing to technical and safety concerns. Methods: A systematic review of mycobacterial human challenge studies was carried out to evaluate progress to date, best possible ways forward and challenges to be overcome. We searched MEDLINE (1946 to current) and CINAHL (1984 to current) databases; and Google Scholar to search citations in selected manuscripts. The final search was conducted 3 rd February 2022. Inclusion criteria: adults ≥18 years old; administration of live mycobacteria; and interventional trials or cohort studies with immune and/or microbiological endpoints. Exclusion criteria: animal studies; studies with no primary data; no administration of live mycobacteria; retrospective cohort studies; case-series; and case-reports. Relevant tools (Cochrane Collaboration for RCTs and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for non-randomised studies) were used to assess risk of bias and present a narrative synthesis of our findings. Results: The search identified 1,388 titles for review; of these 90 were reviewed for inclusion; and 27 were included. Of these, 15 were randomised controlled trials and 12 were prospective cohort studies. We focussed on administration route, challenge agent and dose administered for data extraction. Overall, BCG studies including fluorescent BCG show the most immediate utility, and genetically modified Mycobacteria tuberculosis is the most tantalising prospect of discovery breakthrough. Conclusions: The TB-CHIM development group met in 2019 and 2022 to consider the results of the systematic review, to hear presentations from many of the senior authors whose work had been reviewed and to consider best ways forward. This paper reports both the systematic review and the deliberations. Registration: PROSPERO ( CRD42022302785; 21 January 2022).

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients.

METHODS

The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).

RESULTS

Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death.

Analysis of exhaled breath to identify critically ill patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

Ventilator-associated pneumonia commonly occurs in critically ill patients. Clinical suspicion results in overuse of antibiotics, which in turn promotes antimicrobial resistance. Detection of volatile organic compounds in the exhaled breath of critically ill patients might allow earlier detection of pneumonia and avoid unnecessary antibiotic prescription. We report a proof of concept study for non-invasive diagnosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia in intensive care (the BRAVo study). Mechanically ventilated critically ill patients commenced on antibiotics for clinical suspicion of ventilator-associated pneumonia were recruited within the first 24 h of treatment. Paired exhaled breath and respiratory tract samples were collected. Exhaled breath was captured on sorbent tubes and then analysed using thermal desorption gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to detect volatile organic compounds. Microbiological culture of a pathogenic bacteria in respiratory tract samples provided confirmation of ventilator-associated pneumonia. Univariable and multivariable analyses of volatile organic compounds were performed to identify potential biomarkers for a 'rule-out' test. Ninety-six participants were enrolled in the trial, with exhaled breath available from 92. Of all compounds tested, the four highest performing candidate biomarkers were benzene, cyclohexanone, pentanol and undecanal with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.67 to 0.77 and negative predictive values from 85% to 88%. Identified volatile organic compounds in the exhaled breath of mechanically ventilated critically ill patients show promise as a useful non-invasive 'rule-out' test for ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Different clinical features in Malawian outpatients presenting with COVID-19 prior to and during Omicron variant dominance: A prospective observational study

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has resulted in a high number of cases, but a relatively low incidence of severe disease and deaths, compared to the pre-Omicron variants. Therefore, we assessed the differences in symptom prevalence between Omicron and pre-Omicron infections in a sub-Saharan African population. We collected data from outpatients presenting at two primary healthcare facilities in Blantyre, Malawi, from November 2020 to March 2022. Eligible participants were aged >1month old, with signs suggestive of COVID-19, and those not suspected of COVID-19, from whom we collected nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, and sequenced positive samples to identify infecting-variants. In addition, we calculated the risk of presenting with a given symptom in individuals testing SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive before and during the Omicron variant-dominated period. Among 5176 participants, 6.4% were under 5, and 77% were aged 18 to 50 years. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence peaked in January 2021 (Beta), July 2021 (Delta), and December 2021 (Omicron). We found that cough (risk ratio (RR), 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00 to 2.30), fatigue (RR 2.27; 95% CI, 1.29 to 3.86) and headache (RR 1.64; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.34) were associated with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the pre-Omicron period. In comparison, only headache (RR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.86) did associate with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron-dominated period. In conclusion, clinical symptoms associated with Omicron infection differed from prior variants and were harder to identify clinically with current symptom guidelines. Our findings encourage regular review of case definitions and testing policies to ensure case ascertainment.

Multimorbidity research in Sub-Saharan Africa: Proceedings of an interdisciplinary workshop

As life expectancies rise globally, the number of people living with multiple chronic health conditions – commonly referred to as ‘multimorbidity’ – is rising. Multimorbidity has been recognised as especially challenging to respond to in countries whose health systems are under-funded, fragmented, and designed primarily for acute care, including in sub-Saharan Africa. A growing body of research in sub-Saharan Africa has sought to better understand the particular challenges multimorbidity poses in the region and to develop context-sensitive responses. However, with multimorbidity still crystallising as a subject of enquiry, there remains considerable heterogeneity in conceptualising multimorbidity across disciplines and fields, hindering coordinated action. In June 2022, 60 researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders with regional expertise from nine sub-Saharan African countries gathered in Blantyre, Malawi to discuss ongoing multimorbidity research across the region. Drawing on insights from disciplines including epidemiology, public health, clinical medicine, anthropology, history, and sociology, participants critically considered the meaning, singular potential, and limitations of the concept of multimorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa. The workshop emphasised  the need to move beyond a disease-centred concept of multimorbidity to one foregrounding patients’ values, needs, and social context; the importance of foregrounding structures and systems rather than behaviour and lifestyles; the value of a flexible (rather than standard) definition of multimorbidity; and the need to leverage local knowledge, expertise, resources, and infrastructure. The workshop further served as a platform for exploring opportunities for training, writing, and ongoing collaboration.

Practical considerations for a TB controlled human infection model (TB-CHIM); the case for TB-CHIM in Africa, a systematic review of the literature and report of 2 workshop discussions in UK and Malawi

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major challenge in many domains including diagnosis, pathogenesis, prevention, treatment, drug resistance and long-term protection of the public health by vaccination. A controlled human infection model (CHIM) could potentially facilitate breakthroughs in each of these domains but has so far been considered impossible owing to technical and safety concerns. Methods: A systematic review of mycobacterial human challenge studies was carried out to evaluate progress to date, best possible ways forward and challenges to be overcome. We searched MEDLINE (1946 to current) and CINAHL (1984 to current) databases; and Google Scholar to search citations in selected manuscripts. The final search was conducted 3 rd February 2022. Inclusion criteria: adults ≥18 years old; administration of live mycobacteria; and interventional trials or cohort studies with immune and/or microbiological endpoints. Exclusion criteria: animal studies; studies with no primary data; no administration of live mycobacteria; retrospective cohort studies; case-series; and case-reports. Relevant tools (Cochrane Collaboration for RCTs and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for non-randomised studies) were used to assess risk of bias and present a narrative synthesis of our findings. Results: The search identified 1,388 titles for review; of these 90 were reviewed for inclusion; and 27 were included. Of these, 15 were randomised controlled trials and 12 were prospective cohort studies. We focussed on administration route, challenge agent and dose administered for data extraction. Overall, BCG studies including fluorescent BCG show the most immediate utility, and genetically modified Mycobacteria tuberculosis is the most tantalising prospect of discovery breakthrough. Conclusions: The TB-CHIM development group met in 2019 and 2022 to consider the results of the systematic review, to hear presentations from many of the senior authors whose work had been reviewed and to consider best ways forward. This paper reports both the systematic review and the deliberations. Registration: PROSPERO ( CRD42022302785; 21 January 2022).

A comparison of four epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Malawi; an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Compared to the abundance of clinical and genomic information available on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease from high-income countries, there is a paucity of data from low-income countries. Our aim was to explore the relationship between viral lineage and patient outcome.

METHODS

We enrolled a prospective observational cohort of adult patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 disease between July 2020 and March 2022 from Blantyre, Malawi, covering four waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Clinical and diagnostic data were collected using an adapted ISARIC clinical characterization protocol for COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 isolates were sequenced using the MinION™ in Blantyre.

RESULTS

We enrolled 314 patients, good quality sequencing data was available for 55 patients. The sequencing data showed that 8 of 11 participants recruited in wave one had B.1 infections, 6/6 in wave two had Beta, 25/26 in wave three had Delta and 11/12 in wave four had Omicron. Patients infected during the Delta and Omicron waves reported fewer underlying chronic conditions and a shorter time to presentation. Significantly fewer patients required oxygen (22.7% [17/75] vs. 58.6% [140/239], p < 0.001) and steroids (38.7% [29/75] vs. 70.3% [167/239], p < 0.001) in the Omicron wave compared with the other waves. Multivariable logistic-regression demonstrated a trend toward increased mortality in the Delta wave (OR 4.99 [95% CI 1.0-25.0 p = 0.05) compared to the first wave of infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show that each wave of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 was infected with a distinct viral variant. The clinical data suggests that patients with severe COVID-19 disease were more likely to die during the Delta wave.

Comprehensive review of safety in Experimental Human Pneumococcal Challenge

INTRODUCTION

Experimental Human Pneumococcal Challenge (EHPC) involves the controlled exposure of adults to a specific antibiotic-sensitive Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype, to induce nasopharyngeal colonisation for the purpose of vaccine research. The aims are to review comprehensively the safety profile of EHPC, explore the association between pneumococcal colonisation and frequency of safety review and describe the medical intervention required to undertake such studies.

METHODS

A single-centre review of all EHPC studies performed 2011-2021. All recorded serious adverse events (SAE) in eligible studies are reported. An unblinded meta-analysis of collated anonymised individual patient data from eligible EHPC studies was undertaken to assess the association between experimental pneumococcal colonisation and the frequency of safety events following inoculation.

RESULTS

In 1416 individuals (median age 21, IQR 20-25), 1663 experimental pneumococcal inoculations were performed. No pneumococcal-related SAE have occurred. 214 safety review events were identified with 182 (12.85%) participants presenting with symptoms potentially in keeping with pneumococcal infection, predominantly in pneumococcal colonised individuals (colonised = 96/658, non-colonised = 86/1005, OR 1.81 (95% CI 1.28-2.56, P = <0.001). The majority were mild (pneumococcal group = 72.7% [120/165 reported symptoms], non-pneumococcal = 86.7% [124/143 reported symptoms]). 1.6% (23/1416) required antibiotics for safety.

DISCUSSION

No SAEs were identified directly relating to pneumococcal inoculation. Safety review for symptoms was infrequent but occurred more in experimentally colonised participants. Most symptoms were mild and resolved with conservative management. A small minority required antibiotics, notably those serotype 3 inoculated.

CONCLUSION

Outpatient human pneumococcal challenge can be conducted safely with appropriate levels of safety monitoring procedures in place.

A comparison of four epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Malawi; an observational cohort study

Background

Compared to the abundance of clinical and genomic information available on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease from high-income countries, there is a paucity of data from low-income countries. Our aim was to explore the relationship between viral lineage and patient outcome.

Methods

We enrolled a prospective observational cohort of adult patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 disease between July 2020 and March 2022 from Blantyre, Malawi, covering four waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Clinical and diagnostic data were collected using an adapted ISARIC clinical characterization protocol for COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 isolates were sequenced using the MinIONâ"¢ in Blantyre.

Results

We enrolled 314 patients, good quality sequencing data was available for 55 patients. The sequencing data showed that 8 of 11 participants recruited in wave one had B.1 infections, 6/6 in wave two had Beta, 25/26 in wave three had Delta and 11/12 in wave four had Omicron. Patients infected during the Delta and Omicron waves reported fewer underlying chronic conditions and a shorter time to presentation. Significantly fewer patients required oxygen (22.7% [17/75] vs. 58.6% [140/239], p<0.001) and steroids (38.7% [29/75] vs. 70.3% [167/239], p<0.001) in the Omicron wave compared with the other waves. Multivariable logistic-regression demonstrated a trend toward increased mortality in the Delta wave (OR 4.99 [95% CI 1.0-25.0 p=0.05) compared to the first wave of infection.

Conclusions

Our data show that each wave of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 was infected with a distinct viral variant. The clinical data suggests that patients with severe COVID-19 disease were more likely to die during the Delta wave.

Summary

We used genome sequencing to identify the variants of SARS-CoV-2 causing disease in Malawi, and found that each of the four waves was caused by a distinct variant. Clinical investigation suggested that the Delta wave had the highest mortality.

“An increase in COVID-19 patients would be overwhelming”: A qualitative description of healthcare workers’ experiences during the first wave of COVID-19 (March 2020 to October 2020) at Malawi’s largest referral hospital

Background  COVID-19 is currently a global health threat. Healthcare workers are on the front-line of the COVID-19 outbreak response and therefore at heightened risk of infection. There is a dearth of evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa about healthcare worker experiences in managing COVID-19.  We have reported on healthcare worker responses, experiences, and perspectives on epidemic response strategies at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi’s largest referral hospital.   Methods  We conducted 39 face-to-face in-depth interviews with a purposively selected sample of healthcare workers during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malawi (March 2020 to October 2020). The study included healthcare workers who provided direct and indirect patient care.   Results  During the early phase of the first wave (March to May 2020), healthcare workers expressed concerns with inadequate working space, unconducive infrastructure, delayed and rushed training on the management of COVID-19, and lack of incentives. Additionally, the hospital had staff shortages and limited essential resources such as piped oxygen and personal protective equipment. This increased healthcare worker fears of contracting COVID-19 and they were less willing to volunteer at COVID-19 isolation units. Resource constraints and limited preparedness compromised the care pathway particularly with increased numbers of COVID-19 patients. By the peak of the first wave (June to August 2020) many of these issues had been resolved. The hospital provided refresher training courses, personal protective equipment became available, incentives were offered to healthcare workers working in COVID-19 units and piped oxygen was installed. Staff morale was boosted, and more staff were willing to work at the COVID-19 isolation centres.   Conclusion  Experiences of healthcare workers during the first wave of COVID-19 are critical for improving care in future COVID-19 waves. Response strategies in resource-constrained areas should prioritise timely training of staff, creation of adequate isolation areas, provision of adequate medical supplies and strengthening leadership.

Accuracy of computer-aided chest X-ray in community-based tuberculosis screening: Lessons from the 2016 Kenya National Tuberculosis Prevalence Survey

Community-based screening for tuberculosis (TB) could improve detection but is resource intensive. We set out to evaluate the accuracy of computer-aided TB screening using digital chest X-ray (CXR) to determine if this approach met target product profiles (TPP) for community-based screening. CXR images from participants in the 2016 Kenya National TB Prevalence Survey were evaluated using CAD4TBv6 (Delft Imaging), giving a probabilistic score for pulmonary TB ranging from 0 (low probability) to 99 (high probability). We constructed a Bayesian latent class model to estimate the accuracy of CAD4TBv6 screening compared to bacteriologically-confirmed TB across CAD4TBv6 threshold cut-offs, incorporating data on Clinical Officer CXR interpretation, participant demographics (age, sex, TB symptoms, previous TB history), and sputum results. We compared model-estimated sensitivity and specificity of CAD4TBv6 to optimum and minimum TPPs. Of 63,050 prevalence survey participants, 61,848 (98%) had analysable CXR images, and 8,966 (14.5%) underwent sputum bacteriological testing; 298 had bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary TB. Median CAD4TBv6 scores for participants with bacteriologically-confirmed TB were significantly higher (72, IQR: 58-82.75) compared to participants with bacteriologically-negative sputum results (49, IQR: 44-57, p<0.0001). CAD4TBv6 met the optimum TPP; with the threshold set to achieve a mean sensitivity of 95% (optimum TPP), specificity was 83.3%, (95% credible interval [CrI]: 83.0%-83.7%, CAD4TBv6 threshold: 55). There was considerable variation in accuracy by participant characteristics, with older individuals and those with previous TB having lowest specificity. CAD4TBv6 met the optimal TPP for TB community screening. To optimise screening accuracy and efficiency of confirmatory sputum testing, we recommend that an adaptive approach to threshold setting is adopted based on participant characteristics.

Consensus statement on measures to promote equitable authorship in the publication of research from international partnerships

Despite the acknowledged injustice and widespread existence of parachute research studies conducted in low‐ or middle‐income countries by researchers from institutions in high‐income countries, there is currently no pragmatic guidance for how academic journals should evaluate manuscript submissions and challenge this practice. We assembled a multidisciplinary group of editors and researchers with expertise in international health research to develop this consensus statement. We reviewed relevant existing literature and held three workshops to present research data and holistically discuss the concept of equitable authorship and the role of academic journals in the context of international health research partnerships. We subsequently developed statements to guide prospective authors and journal editors as to how they should address this issue. We recommend that for manuscripts that report research conducted in low‐ or middle‐income countries by collaborations including partners from one or more high‐income countries, authors should submit accompanying structured reflexivity statements. We provide specific questions that these statements should address and suggest that journals should transparently publish reflexivity statements with accepted manuscripts. We also provide guidance to journal editors about how they should assess the structured statements when making decisions on whether to accept or reject submitted manuscripts. We urge journals across disciplines to adopt these recommendations to accelerate the changes needed to halt the practice of parachute research.

A feasibility study of controlled human infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae in Malawi

Background

Persistent carriage of pneumococcal vaccine serotypes has occurred after introduction of PCV13 vaccination in Africa but the mechanisms are unclear. We tested the feasibility of using a human pneumococcal challenge model in Malawi to understand immune correlates of protection against carriage and to trial alternative vaccine candidates. We aimed to identify a dose of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B sufficient to establish nasopharyngeal carriage in 40% of those nasally inoculated and evaluate nasal mucosal immunity before and after experimental inoculation.

Methods

Healthy student volunteers were recruited and inoculated with saline, 20,000 CFU/naris or 80,000 CFU/naris of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B Post inoculation carriage was determined by nasal sampling for bacterial culture and lytA PCR. Immunological responses were measured in serum and nasal mucosal biopsies before and after bacterial inoculation.

Findings

Twenty-four subjects completed the feasibility protocol with minimal side effects. pneumococcal carriage was established in 0/6, 3/9 and 4/9 subjects in the saline, 20,000 CFU/naris and 80,000 CFU/naris groups, respectively. Incidental (natural) serotype carriage was common (7/24 participants carried non-6B strains, 29.2%. Experimentally induced type 6B pneumococcal carriage was associated with pro-inflammatory nasal mucosal responses prior to inoculation and altered mucosal recruitment of immune cells post bacterial challenge. There was no association with serum anti-capsular antibody.

Interpretation

The serotype 6B experimental human pneumococcal carriage model is feasible in Malawi and can now be used to determine the immunological correlates of protection against carriage and vaccine efficacy in this population.

Exploring smoke: an ethnographic study of air pollution in rural Malawi

Air pollution adversely affects human health, and the climate crisis intensifies the global imperative for action. Low-/middle-income countries (LMIC) suffer particularly high attributable disease burdens. In rural low-resource settings, these are linked to cooking using biomass. Proposed biomedical solutions to air pollution typically involve ‘improved cooking technologies’, often introduced by high-income country research teams. This ethnography, set in a rural Malawian village, aimed to understand air pollution within its social and environmental context. The results provide a multifaceted account through immersive participant observations with concurrent air quality monitoring, interviews and participatory workshops. Data included quantitative measures of individuals’ air pollution exposures paired with activity, qualitative insights into how smoke is experienced in daily life throughout the village, and participants’ reflections on potential cleaner air solutions. Individual air quality monitoring demonstrated that particulate levels frequently exceeded upper limits recommended by the WHO, even in the absence of identified sources of biomass burning. Ethnographic findings revealed the overwhelming impact of economic scarcity on individual air pollution exposures. Scarcity affected air pollution exposures through three pathways: daily hardship, limitation and precarity. We use the theory of structural violence, as described by Paul Farmer, and the concept of slow violence to interrogate the origins of this scarcity and global inequality. We draw on the ethnographic findings to critically consider sustainable approaches to cleaner air, without re-enacting existing systemic inequities.

Distinct clinical and immunological profiles of patients with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in sub-Saharan Africa

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has left no country untouched there has been limited research to understand clinical and immunological responses in African populations. Here we characterise patients hospitalised with suspected (PCR-negative/IgG-positive) or confirmed (PCR-positive) COVID-19, and healthy community controls (PCR-negative/IgG-negative). PCR-positive COVID-19 participants were more likely to receive dexamethasone and a beta-lactam antibiotic, and survive to hospital discharge than PCR-negative/IgG-positive and PCR-negative/IgG-negative participants. PCR-negative/IgG-positive participants exhibited a nasal and systemic cytokine signature analogous to PCR-positive COVID-19 participants, predominated by chemokines and neutrophils and distinct from PCR-negative/IgG-negative participants. PCR-negative/IgG-positive participants had increased propensity for Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae colonisation. PCR-negative/IgG-positive individuals with high COVID-19 clinical suspicion had inflammatory profiles analogous to PCR-confirmed disease and potentially represent a target population for COVID-19 treatment strategies.

'If not TB, what could it be?' Chest X-ray findings from the 2016 Kenya Tuberculosis Prevalence Survey

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diseases other than TB detected during chest X-ray (CXR) screening is unknown in sub-Saharan Africa. This represents a missed opportunity for identification and treatment of potentially significant disease. Our aim was to describe and quantify non-TB abnormalities identified by TB-focused CXR screening during the 2016 Kenya National TB Prevalence Survey.

METHODS

We reviewed a random sample of 1140 adult (≥15 years) CXRs classified as 'abnormal, suggestive of TB' or 'abnormal other' during field interpretation from the TB prevalence survey. Each image was read (blinded to field classification and study radiologist read) by two expert radiologists, with images classified into one of four major anatomical categories and primary radiological findings. A third reader resolved discrepancies. Prevalence and 95% CIs of abnormalities diagnosis were estimated.

FINDINGS

Cardiomegaly was the most common non-TB abnormality at 259 out of 1123 (23.1%, 95% CI 20.6% to 25.6%), while cardiomegaly with features of cardiac failure occurred in 17 out of 1123 (1.5%, 95% CI 0.9% to 2.4%). We also identified chronic pulmonary pathology including suspected COPD in 3.2% (95% CI 2.3% to 4.4%) and non-specific patterns in 4.6% (95% CI 3.5% to 6.0%). Prevalence of active-TB and severe post-TB lung changes was 3.6% (95% CI 2.6% to 4.8%) and 1.4% (95% CI 0.8% to 2.3%), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Based on radiological findings, we identified a wide variety of non-TB abnormalities during population-based TB screening. TB prevalence surveys and active case finding activities using mass CXR offer an opportunity to integrate disease screening efforts.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (IMPALA-grant reference 16/136/35).

Becoming the temporary surgeon: A grounded theory examination of anaesthetists performing emergency front of neck access in inter-disciplinary simulation-based training

The time-critical 'can't intubate, can't oxygenate' [CICO] emergency post-induction of anaesthesia is rare, but one which, should it occur, requires Anaesthetists to perform rapid emergency front of neck access [FONA] to the trachea, restoring oxygenation, and preventing death or brain hypoxia. The UK Difficult Airway Society [DAS] has directed all Anaesthetists to be trained with surgical cricothyroidotomy [SCT] as the primary emergency FONA method, sometimes referred to as 'Cric' as a shorthand. We present a longitudinal analysis using a classical approach to Grounded Theory methodology of ten Specialist Trainee Anaesthetists' data during a 6-month training programme delivered jointly by Anaesthetists and Surgeons. We identified with a critical realist ontology and an objectivist epistemology meaning data interpretation was driven by participants' narratives and accepted as true accounts of their experience. Our theory comprises three themes: 'Identity as an Anaesthetist'; 'The Role of a Temporary Surgeon'; and 'Training to Reconcile Identities', whereby training facilitated the psychological transition from a 'bloodless Doctor' (Anaesthetist) to becoming a 'temporary Surgeon'. The training programme enabled Specialist Trainees to move between the role of control and responsibility (Identity as an Anaesthetist), through self-described 'failure' and into a role of uncertainty about one's own confidence and competence (The Role of a Temporary Surgeon), and then return to the Anaesthetist's role once the airway had been established. Understanding the complexity of an intervention and providing a better insight into the training needs of Anaesthetic trainees, via a Grounded Theory approach, allows us to evaluate training programmes against the recognised technical and non-technical needs of those being trained.

An Improvised Pulmonary Telerehabilitation Program for Postacute COVID-19 Patients Would Be Feasible and Acceptable in a Low-Resource Setting

ABSTRACT

Postacute COVID-19 patients are at risk of long-term functional impairment, and the rehabilitation community is calling for action preparing for a "tsunami of rehabilitation needs" in this patient population. In the absence of standard guidelines and local evidence, a 3-wk pulmonary telerehabilitation program was successfully delivered to a postacute severe COVID-19 patient in Malawi. The patient experienced persistent dyspnea and fatigue, with a remarkable impact on his health status. On the final assessment, all his respiratory severity scores had fallen by more than their thresholds for clinical significance. He reported no continued or new complaints, was walking longer distances, had returned to work, and was discharged from follow-up. Our case shows that an improvised pulmonary telerehabilitation program for postacute COVID-19 patients could be feasible and acceptable in a low-resource setting. Benefits include reducing risk of transmission and use of personal protective equipment.

In depth analysis of patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa demonstrates distinct clinical and immunological profiles

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has left no country untouched there has been limited research to understand clinical and immunological responses in African populations. Here we comprehensively characterise patients hospitalised with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, and healthy community controls. PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants were more likely to receive dexamethasone and a beta-lactam antibiotic, and survive to hospital discharge than PCR-/IgG+ and PCR-/IgG-participants. PCR-/IgG+ participants exhibited a nasal and systemic cytokine signature analogous to PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants, but increased propensity for Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae colonisation. We did not find evidence that HIV co-infection in COVID-19 participants was associated with mortality or altered cytokine responses. The nasal immune signature in PCR-/IgG+ and PCR-confirmed COVID-19 participants was distinct and predominated by chemokines and neutrophils. In addition, PCR-/IgG+ individuals with high COVID-19 clinical suspicion had inflammatory profiles analogous to PCR-confirmed disease and potentially represent a target population for COVID-19 treatment strategies.

The influence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 on nasal colonisation in a controlled human infection model of pneumococcal carriage in Malawi: a double-blinded randomised controlled trial protocol

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement, and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  For Malawi, nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci is common in vaccinated children despite national roll-out of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) since 2011. Our team has safely transferred an established experimental human pneumococcal carriage method from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Malawi. This study will determine potential immunological mechanisms for the differential effects of PCV13 on nasal carriage between healthy Malawian and UK populations. We will conduct a double-blinded randomised controlled trial to vaccinate (1:1) participants with either PCV13 or control (normal saline). After a period of one month, participants will be inoculated with S. pneumoniae serotype 6B to experimentally induce nasal carriage using the EHPC method. Subsequently, participants will be invited for a second inoculation after one year to determine longer-term vaccine-induced immunological effects. Primary endpoint: detection of inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: local and systemic innate, humoral and cellular responses to PCV-13 with and without pneumococcal nasal carriage The primary objective of this controlled human infection model study is to determine if PCV-13 vaccination is protective against pneumococcal carriage in healthy adult Malawian volunteers. This study will help us to understand the observed differences in PCV-13 efficacy between populations and inform the design of future vaccines relevant to the Malawian population. Trial Registration: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (REF: PACTR202008503507113).

"At first, I was very afraid"-a qualitative description of participants' views and experiences in the first Human Infection Study in Malawi

Background: Human infection studies (HIS) involve deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with a pathogen in a controlled environment to understand infection and support the development of effective vaccines or treatments. HIS research is expanding to many low and middle-income settings to accelerate vaccine development. Given the implementation of the first HIS research to establish the experimental human pneumococcal carriage model's feasibility, we sought to understand the participant's opinions and experiences. Methods: We used a qualitative, descriptive approach to understand participants perceptions and experiences on HIS participation. Sixteen healthy adult participants were invited to participate in in-depth exit interviews to discuss their experiences, motivations and concerns. Results: Our findings showed that the likelihood of participation in HIS research rests on three essential conditions: motivation to participate, compensation and advocacy. The motivation and decision to participate was based on reasons including altruism, patriotism, monetary and material incentives, and while compensation was deemed appropriate, concerns about unanticipated research-related risks were raised. Participant advocate groups were recommended for increasing awareness and educating others in the broader community about HIS research. Conclusions: Participants' experiences of HIS in Malawi provide the basis of what can be acceptable in HIS research in lower-income countries and areas where study procedures could be adjusted.

"At first, I was very afraid"-a qualitative description of participants' views and experiences in the first Human Infection Study in Malawi

Background: Human infection studies (HIS) involve deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with a pathogen in a controlled environment to understand infection and support the development of effective vaccines or treatments. HIS research is expanding to many low and middle-income settings to accelerate vaccine development. Given the implementation of the first HIS research to establish the experimental human pneumococcal carriage model's feasibility, we sought to understand the participant's opinions and experiences. Methods: We used a qualitative, descriptive approach to understand participants perceptions and experiences on HIS participation. Sixteen healthy adult participants were invited to participate in in-depth exit interviews to discuss their experiences, motivations and concerns. Results: Our findings showed that the likelihood of participation in HIS research rests on three essential conditions: motivation to participate, compensation and advocacy. The motivation and decision to participate was based on reasons including altruism, patriotism, monetary and material incentives, and while compensation was deemed appropriate, concerns about unanticipated research-related risks were raised. Participant advocate groups were recommended for increasing awareness and educating others in the broader community about HIS research. Conclusions: Participants' experiences of HIS in Malawi provide the basis of what can be acceptable in HIS research in lower-income countries and areas where study procedures could be adjusted.

The influence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 on nasal colonisation in a controlled human infection model of pneumococcal carriage in Malawi: a double-blinded randomised controlled trial protocol

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement, and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  For Malawi, nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci is common in vaccinated children despite national roll-out of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) since 2011. Our team has safely transferred an established experimental human pneumococcal carriage method from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Malawi. This study will determine potential immunological mechanisms for the differential effects of PCV13 on nasal carriage between healthy Malawian and UK populations. We will conduct a double-blinded randomised controlled trial to vaccinate (1:1) participants with either PCV13 or control (normal saline). After a period of one month, participants will be inoculated with S. pneumoniae serotype 6B to experimentally induce nasal carriage using the EHPC method. Subsequently, participants will be invited for a second inoculation after one year to determine longer-term vaccine-induced immunological effects. Primary endpoint: detection of inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: local and systemic innate, humoral and cellular responses to PCV-13 with and without pneumococcal nasal carriage The primary objective of this controlled human infection model study is to determine if PCV-13 vaccination is protective against pneumococcal carriage in healthy adult Malawian volunteers. This study will help us to understand the observed differences in PCV-13 efficacy between populations and inform the design of future vaccines relevant to the Malawian population. Trial Registration: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (REF: PACTR202008503507113).

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in health care workers but relatively low numbers of deaths in urban Malawi

Background: In low-income countries, like Malawi, important public health measures including social distancing or a lockdown have been challenging to implement owing to socioeconomic constraints, leading to predictions that the COVID-19 pandemic would progress rapidly. However, due to limited capacity to test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, there are no reliable estimates of the true burden of infection and death.  We, therefore, conducted a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey amongst health care workers (HCWs) in Blantyre city to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in urban Malawi. Methods: We recruited 500 otherwise asymptomatic HCWs from Blantyre City (Malawi) from 22nd May 2020 to 19th June 2020 and serum samples were collected from all participants. A commercial ELISA was used to measure SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in serum. Results: A total of 84 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The HCWs with positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results came from different parts of the city. The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 12.3% [CI 8.2 - 16.5]. Using age-stratified infection fatality estimates reported from elsewhere, we found that at the observed adjusted seroprevalence, the number of predicted deaths was eight times the number of reported deaths. Conclusions: The high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among HCWs and the discrepancy in the predicted versus reported deaths suggests that there was early exposure but slow progression of COVID-19 epidemic in urban Malawi. This highlights the urgent need for development of locally parameterised mathematical models to more accurately predict the trajectory of the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa for better evidence-based policy decisions and public health response planning.

Establishment of a high-dependency unit in Malawi

Adults admitted to hospital with critical illness are vulnerable and at high risk of morbidity and mortality, especially in sub-Saharan African settings where resources are severely limited. As life expectancy increases, patient demographics and healthcare needs are increasingly complex and require integrated approaches. Patient outcomes could be improved by increased critical care provision that standardises healthcare delivery, provides specialist staff and enhanced patient monitoring and facilitates some treatment modalities for organ support. In Malawi, we established a new high-dependency unit within Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a tertiary referral centre serving the country's Southern region. This unit was designed in partnership with managers, clinicians, nurses and patients to address their needs. In this practice piece, we describe a participatory approach to design and implement a sustainable high-dependency unit for a low-income sub-Saharan African setting. This included: prospective agreement on remit, alignment with existing services, refurbishment of a dedicated physical space, recruitment and training of specialist nurses, development of context-sensitive clinical standard operating procedures, purchase of appropriate and durable equipment and creation of digital clinical information systems. As the global COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, we accelerated unit opening in anticipation of increased clinical requirement and describe how the high-dependency unit responded to this demand.

The impact of ‘unofficial trauma’ on a Major Trauma Centre: A service evaluation of accident and emergency department trauma team activations

Introduction

Trauma remains a leading cause of death worldwide. In the UK, data for trauma patients are prospectively collected locally and collated by the Trauma Audit and Research Network. This study assesses and describes the subgroup of patients who triggered a trauma call but who subsequently did not meet criteria for Trauma Audit and Research Network.

Methods

A single centre, retrospective observational study of trauma calls between 1 June 2012 and 31 August 2018 was performed, determining which trauma calls had been submitted to Trauma Audit and Research Network by cross referencing with the submission database. Data were tested for normality (Shapiro–Wilk test) and appropriate statistical tests employed to determine differences between inclusion and non-inclusion groups. For categorical data, we used Chi-squared tests to examine for differences.

Results

There were 6529 trauma calls and over half (3837 (58.8%)) were not registered on Trauma Audit and Research Network. Patients excluded were significantly younger (mean 42.4 years SD 19.2) than those who met inclusion criteria (mean 50.3 years, SD 21.8), p < 0.001 and were significantly more likely to suffer from penetrating trauma (18.6% versus 8.2%, p < 0.001), the majority (77.8%, 553/713) caused by stabbings. Patients excluded were less likely to be involved in a road traffic accident (31.1% versus 35.3%, p < 0.001), less likely to have fallen downstairs (15.2% versus 18.7%, p < 0.001) and less likely to have fallen from a height > 2 m (8.1% versus 12.7%, p < 0.001).

Discussion

Patients who trigger a trauma call but who subsequently do not meet the criteria for Trauma Audit and Research Network inclusion place a significant burden on healthcare provision. To our knowledge this is the first investigation to specifically explore this group of at-risk patients. To enable medical planners a more accurate view of activity on the ‘shop floor’, particularly in reference to knife crime injuries we ask the question as to whether a separate database should now be held of trauma calls?

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in health care workers but relatively low numbers of deaths in urban Malawi

Background: In low-income countries, like Malawi, important public health measures including social distancing or a lockdown have been challenging to implement owing to socioeconomic constraints, leading to predictions that the COVID-19 pandemic would progress rapidly. However, due to limited capacity to test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, there are no reliable estimates of the true burden of infection and death.  We, therefore, conducted a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey amongst health care workers (HCWs) in Blantyre city to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in urban Malawi. Methods: We recruited 500 otherwise asymptomatic HCWs from Blantyre City (Malawi) from 22nd May 2020 to 19th June 2020 and serum samples were collected from all participants. A commercial ELISA was used to measure SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in serum. Results: A total of 84 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The HCWs with positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results came from different parts of the city. The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 12.3% [CI 8.2 - 16.5]. Using age-stratified infection fatality estimates reported from elsewhere, we found that at the observed adjusted seroprevalence, the number of predicted deaths was eight times the number of reported deaths. Conclusions: The high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among HCWs and the discrepancy in the predicted versus reported deaths suggests that there was early exposure but slow progression of COVID-19 epidemic in urban Malawi. This highlights the urgent need for development of locally parameterised mathematical models to more accurately predict the trajectory of the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa for better evidence-based policy decisions and public health response planning.

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in health care workers but relatively low numbers of deaths in urban Malawi

BACKGROUND

In low-income countries, like Malawi, important public health measures including social distancing or a lockdown have been challenging to implement owing to socioeconomic constraints, leading to predictions that the COVID-19 pandemic would progress rapidly. However, due to limited capacity to test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, there are no reliable estimates of the true burden of infection and death. We, therefore, conducted a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey amongst health care workers (HCWs) in Blantyre city to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in urban Malawi.

METHODS

We recruited 500 otherwise asymptomatic HCWs from Blantyre City (Malawi) from 22^nd May 2020 to 19^th June 2020 and serum samples were collected from all participants. A commercial ELISA was used to measure SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in serum.

RESULTS

A total of 84 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The HCWs with positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results came from different parts of the city. The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 12.3% [CI 8.2 - 16.5]. Using age-stratified infection fatality estimates reported from elsewhere, we found that at the observed adjusted seroprevalence, the number of predicted deaths was eight times the number of reported deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among HCWs and the discrepancy in the predicted versus reported deaths suggests that there was early exposure but slow progression of COVID-19 epidemic in urban Malawi. This highlights the urgent need for development of locally parameterised mathematical models to more accurately predict the trajectory of the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa for better evidence-based policy decisions and public health response planning.

Clinician perception of long-term survival at the point of critical care discharge: a prospective cohort study

Critical care survivors suffer persistent morbidity and increased risk of mortality as compared with the general population. Nevertheless, there are no standardised tools to identify at-risk patients. Our aim was to establish whether the Sabadell score, a simple tool applied by the treating clinician upon critical care discharge, was independently associated with 5-year mortality through a prospective observational cohort study of adults admitted to a general critical care unit. The Sabadell score, which is a measure of clinician-assigned survival perception, was applied to all patients from September 2011 to December 2017. The primary outcome was 5-year mortality, assessed using a multivariable flexible parametric survival analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics and clinically relevant covariates. We studied 5954 patients with a minimum of 18 months follow-up. Mean (SD) age was 59.5 (17.0) years and 3397 (57.1%) patients were men. We categorised 2287 (38.4%) patients as Sadabell 0; 2854 (47.9%) as Sadabell 1; 629 (10.5%) as Sadabell 2; and 183 (3.1%) as Sadabell 3. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were 2.1 (95%CI 1.9-2.4); 4.0 (95%CI 3.4-4.6); and 21.0 (95%CI 17.2-25.7), respectively. Sabadell 3 patients had 99.9%, 99.5%, 98.5% and 87.4% mortality at 5 years for patients in the age brackets ≥ 80, 60-79, 40-59 and 16-39 years, respectively. Sabadell 2 patients had 71.0%, 52.7%, 44.8% and 23.7% 5-year mortality for these same age categories. The Sabadell score was independently associated with 5-year survival after critical care discharge. These findings can be used to guide provision of increased support for patients after critical care discharge and/or informed discussions with patients and relatives about dying to ascertain their future wishes.

Neutrophil function is impaired in paediatric patients with malignancy and may be a useful clinical marker

PURPOSE

Patients treated with cytotoxic chemotherapy are at risk of neutropenia, neutropenic fever and neutropenic sepsis. We hypothesised that pre-existing neutrophil function dysfunction may increase susceptibility to neutropenic fever in paediatric patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study recruited patients at Alder Hey Children's NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom. We measured neutrophil phagocytic function using a validated flow cytometric whole blood phagocytosis assay in paediatric patients (n = 16) with oncological disease before and after chemotherapy in a prospective cohort study. We recruited healthy children as a control comparator (n = 10).

RESULTS

We found significantly decreased phagocytic function in oncology patients compared to healthy participants. In five patients who developed neutropenic fever, we observed increased pre-dose neutrophil respiratory burst.

CONCLUSION

With further validation, measurement of neutrophil function could potentially be used to personalise appropriate prophylactic antimicrobial administration for patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.

The whole blood phagocytosis assay: a clinically relevant test of neutrophil function and dysfunction in community-acquired pneumonia

Objective

To refine and validate a neutrophil function assay with clinical relevance for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Design

Two phase cross-sectional study to standardise and refine the assay in blood from healthy volunteers and test neutrophil phagocytic function in hospital patients with CAP.

Participants

Phase one: Healthy adult volunteers (n = 30). Phase two: Critical care patients with severe CAP (n = 16), ward-level patients with moderate CAP (n = 15) and respiratory outpatients (no acute disease, n = 15).

Results

Our full standard operating procedure for the assay is provided. Patients with severe CAP had significantly decreased neutrophil function compared to moderate severity disease (median phagocytic index 2.8 vs. 18.0, p = 0.014). Moderate severity pneumonia neutrophil function was significantly higher than control samples (median 18.0 vs. 1.6, p = 0.015). There was no significant difference between critical care and control neutrophil function (median 2.8 vs. 1.6, p = 0.752).

Conclusions

Our whole blood neutrophil assay is simple, reproducible and clinically relevant. Changes in neutrophil function measured in this pneumonia cohort is in agreement with previous studies. The assay has potential to be used to identify individuals for clinical trials of immunomodulatory therapies, to risk-stratify patients with pneumonia, and to refine our understanding of ‘normal’ neutrophil function in infection.

A Novel Assay for Neutrophil Extracellular Trap Formation Independently Predicts Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation and Mortality in Critically Ill Patients

Rationale: Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are important in the host defense against infection, but they also promote intravascular coagulation and multiorgan failure in animal models. Their clinical significance remains unclear, and available assays for patient care lack specificity and reliability.Objectives: To establish a novel assay and test its clinical significance.Methods: A prospective cohort of 341 consecutive adult ICU patients was recruited. The NET-forming capacity of ICU admission blood samples was semiquantified by directly incubating patient plasma with isolated neutrophils ex vivo. The association of NET-forming capacity with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and 28-day mortality was analyzed and compared with available NET assays.Measurements and Main Results: Using the novel assay, we could stratify ICU patients into four groups with absent (22.0%), mild (49.9%), moderate (14.4%), and strong (13.8%) NET formation, respectively. Strong NET formation was predominantly found in sepsis (P < 0.0001). Adjusted by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, multivariate regression showed that the degree of NET formation could independently predict disseminated intravascular coagulation and mortality, whereas other NET assays (e.g., cell-free DNA, myeloperoxidase, and myeloperoxidase-DNA complexes) could not. IL-8 concentrations were found to be strongly associated with NET formation, and inhibiting IL-8 significantly attenuated NETosis. Mitogen-activated protein kinase activation by IL-8 has been identified as a major pathway of NET formation in patients.Conclusions: This assay directly measures the NET-forming capacity in patient plasma. This could guide clinical management and enable identification of NET-inducing factors in individual patients for targeted treatment and personalized ICU medicine.

A pneumococcal controlled human infection model in Malawi: Transfer of an established pneumococcal carriage model from Liverpool, UK to Blantyre, Malawi - A feasibility study

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  As asymptomatic colonisation of the human nasopharynx is a prerequisite for pneumococcal disease, this is proposed as a marker for novel vaccine efficacy. Our team established a safe and reproducible pneumococcal controlled human infection model at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM). This has been used to test vaccine induced protection against nasopharyngeal carriage for ten years in over 1000 participants. We will transfer established standardised operating procedures from LSTM to Malawi and test in up to 36 healthy participants. Primary endpoint: detection of the inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: confirmation of robust clinical and laboratory methods for sample capture and processing. Tertiary endpoints: participant acceptability of study and methods. We will test three doses of pneumococcal inoculation (20,000, 80,000 and 160,000 colony forming units [CFUs] per naris) using a parsimonious study design intended to reduce unnecessary exposure to participants. We hypothesise that 80,000 CFUs will induce nasal colonisation in approximately half of participants per established LSTM practice. The aims of the feasibility study are: 1) Establish Streptococcus pneumoniae experimental human pneumococcal carriage in Malawi; 2) Confirm optimal nasopharyngeal pneumococcal challenge dose; 3) Confirm safety and measure potential symptoms; 4) Confirm sampling protocols and laboratory assays; 5) Assess feasibility and acceptability of consent and study procedures. Confirmation of pneumococcal controlled human infection model feasibility in Malawi will enable us to target pneumococcal vaccine candidates for an at-risk population who stand the most to gain from new and improved vaccine strategies.

A pneumococcal controlled human infection model in Malawi: Transfer of an established pneumococcal carriage model from Liverpool, UK to Blantyre, Malawi - A feasibility study

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  As asymptomatic colonisation of the human nasopharynx is a prerequisite for pneumococcal disease, this is proposed as a marker for novel vaccine efficacy. Our team established a safe and reproducible pneumococcal controlled human infection model at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM). This has been used to test vaccine induced protection against nasopharyngeal carriage for ten years in over 1000 participants. We will transfer established standardised operating procedures from LSTM to Malawi and test in up to 36 healthy participants. Primary endpoint: detection of the inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: confirmation of robust clinical and laboratory methods for sample capture and processing. Tertiary endpoints: participant acceptability of study and methods. We will test three doses of pneumococcal inoculation (20,000, 80,000 and 160,000 colony forming units [CFUs] per naris) using a parsimonious study design intended to reduce unnecessary exposure to participants. We hypothesise that 80,000 CFUs will induce nasal colonisation in approximately half of participants per established LSTM practice. The aims of the feasibility study are: 1) Establish Streptococcus pneumoniae experimental human pneumococcal carriage in Malawi; 2) Confirm optimal nasopharyngeal pneumococcal challenge dose; 3) Confirm safety and measure potential symptoms; 4) Confirm sampling protocols and laboratory assays; 5) Assess feasibility and acceptability of consent and study procedures. Confirmation of pneumococcal controlled human infection model feasibility in Malawi will enable us to target pneumococcal vaccine candidates for an at-risk population who stand the most to gain from new and improved vaccine strategies.