Knowledge interface co-design of a diabetes and metabolic syndrome initiative with and for Aboriginal people living on Ngarrindjeri country

Objectives

This research program involves two phases to identify enablers and barriers to diabetes care for Aboriginal people on Ngarrindjeri country; and co-design a strength-based metabolic syndrome and Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) remission program with the Ngarrindjeri community.

Study design

A study protocol on qualitative research.

Methods

The study will recruit Aboriginal people living on Ngarrindjeri country above 18 years of age with a diagnosis of metabolic syndrome or T2D. Recruitment for phases one and two will occur through the Aboriginal Health Team at the Riverland Mallee Coorong Local Health Network. The lived experiences of T2D will be explored with 10-15 Aboriginal participants, through an Aboriginal conversational technique called 'yarning' (60-90 min) in phase 1. Elders and senior community representatives (n = 20-30) will participate in four co-design workshops (2-4 h) in phase 2. Qualitative data will be transcribed and thematically analysed (NVivo version 12). The analysis will focus on protective factors for the Cultural Determinants of Health. Ethics approval was obtained from Aboriginal Health Research Ethics Committee in South Australia (04-22-1009), and Flinders University Human Research Ethics Committee (5847).

Results

This work will be used to pilot the co-designed diabetes remission trial. Outcomes will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences, focusing on following best practice guidelines from the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies and National Health and Medical Research Council. Research translation will occur through digital posters, manuals, and infographics.

Conclusions

The findings will be summarised to all Aboriginal organisations involved in this study, along with peak bodies, stakeholders, Aboriginal Services, and interested participants.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of lived experience Peer Support intervention for mental health service consumers in Primary Care (PS-PC): study protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The demand for mental health services in Australia is substantial and has grown beyond the capacity of the current workforce. As a result, it is currently difficult for many to access secondary healthcare providers. Within the secondary healthcare sector, however, peer workers who have lived experience of managing mental health conditions have been increasingly employed to intentionally use their journey of recovery in supporting others living with mental health conditions and their communities. Currently, the presence of peer workers in primary care has been limited, despite the potential benefits of providing supports in conjunction with GPs and secondary healthcare providers.

METHODS

This stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to evaluate a lived experience peer support intervention for accessing mental health care in primary care (PS-PC). Four medical practices across Australia will be randomly allocated to switch from control to intervention, until all practices are delivering the PS-PC intervention. The study will enrol 66 patients at each practice (total sample size of 264). Over a period of 3-4 months, 12 h of practical and emotional support provided by lived experience peer workers will be available to participants. Scale-based questionnaires will inform intervention efficacy in terms of mental health outcomes (e.g., self-efficacy) and other health outcomes (e.g., healthcare-related costs) over four time points. Other perspectives will be explored through scales completed by approximately 150 family members or carers (carer burden) and 16 peer workers (self-efficacy) pre- and post-intervention, and 20 medical practice staff members (attitudes toward peer workers) at the end of each study site's involvement in the intervention. Interviews (n = 60) and six focus groups held toward the end of each study site's involvement will further explore the views of participants, family members or carers, peer workers, and practice staff to better understand the efficacy and acceptability of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

This mixed-methods, multi-centre, stepped-wedge controlled study will be the first to evaluate the implementation of peer workers in the primary care mental health care sector.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12623001189617. Registered on 17 November 2023, https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=386715.

Content Comparison of Quality-of-Life Instruments Used in Economic Evaluations of Sleep Disorder Interventions: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Assessment of quality of life (QoL) in people living with sleep disorders using questionnaires is necessary to compare intervention benefits. Knowledge of the content and concepts covered by specific QoL instruments is essential to determine which instruments are best suited for conducting economic evaluations of sleep-related interventions.

OBJECTIVES

This review aims to identify the QoL instruments that have been applied in economic evaluations of sleep disorder interventions and compare their conceptual overlap and content coverage using the framework of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).

METHODS

A systematic review of full economic evaluations in sleep published in peer-reviewed journals from conception to 30 May, 2023 was conducted. MEDLINE, PsychInfo, ProQuest, Cochrane, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science and Emcare were searched for eligible studies. Studies incorporating either generic or sleep-specific QoL instruments as the primary or secondary measures of effectiveness within a full economic evaluation were included. Quality appraisal against the JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Economic Evaluations and EURONHEED checklists and mapping of QoL items to ICF categories were performed by two reviewers, with a third helping settle any potential differences.

RESULTS

Sixteen instruments were identified as having been used in sleep health economic evaluations. The EQ-5D-3L, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, and Insomnia Severity Index were the most widely used, but the latter two are predominantly diagnostic tools and not specifically designed to guide economic evaluations. Other instruments with broader ICF content coverage have been least used, and these include the Sleep Apnea Quality of Life Index, Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire, 15 Dimensions, Short-Form 6 Dimensions, 12-item Short Form Survey, 36-item Short Form Survey and the GRID Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an overview of current QoL instruments used in economic evaluations of sleep with respect to their content coverage. A combination of generic and sleep-specific instruments with broader ICF content coverage is recommended for such evaluations.

Two-year follow-up of a clustered randomised controlled trial of a multicomponent general practice intervention for people at risk of poor health outcomes

BACKGROUND

This study was a two-year follow-up evaluation of health service use and the cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent general practice intervention targeted at people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

METHODS

A two-year follow-up study of a clustered randomised controlled trial was conducted in South Australia during 2018-19, recruiting 1044 patients from three cohorts: children; adults (aged 18-64 years with two or more chronic diseases); and older adults (aged ≥ 65 years). Intervention group practices (n = 10) provided a multicomponent general practice intervention for 12 months. The intervention comprised patient enrolment to a preferred general practitioner (GP), access to longer GP appointments and timely general practice follow-up after episodes of hospital care. Health service outcomes included hospital use, specialist services and pharmaceuticals. The economic evaluation was based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) calculated from EuroQoL 5 dimensions, 5 level utility scores and used an A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold for determining cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the two years, there were no statistically significant intervention effects for health service use. In the total sample, the mean total cost per patient was greater for the intervention than control group, but the number of QALYs gained in the intervention group was higher. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was A$18,211 per QALY gained, which is lower than the A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold used in Australia. However, the intervention's cost-effectiveness was shown to differ by cohort. For the adult cohort, the intervention was associated with higher costs and lower QALYs gained (vs the total cohort) and was not cost-effective. For the older adults cohort, the intervention was associated with lower costs (A$540 per patient), due primarily to lower hospital costs, and was more effective than usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive cost-effectiveness results from the 24-month follow-up warrant replication in a study appropriately powered for outcomes such as hospital use, with an intervention period of at least two years, and targeted to older people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

Health economics in nursing research: what you need to know to include economic evaluation methodology in your research

Due to limited resources and constant, ever-changing healthcare challenges, health economics is essential to support healthcare decisions while improving health outcomes. Economic evaluation methodology facilitates informed decision-making related to the efficient allocation of resources while positively impacting clinical practice. In this paper, we provide an overview of economic evaluation methods and a real-world example applying one method of economic evaluation (cost-utility analysis) in nursing research.

Excess Bed Days and Hospitalization Costs Associated With 30-Day Complications Following Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The incidence and type of complications following catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation have been extensively examined, but the impact associated with these complications on the length of stay and hospitalization costs is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study included 20 117 adult patients (mean age 62.6±11.4 years, 30.3% women, median length of stay 1 day [interquartile range 1-2 days]) undergoing atrial fibrillation ablation in financial years 2011 to 2017 in Australia with available cost data from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection, which determines government reimbursement of health services provided. The primary outcome was the costs associated with complications occurring up to 30 days postdischarge adjusted for inflation to 2021 Australian dollars. We used generalized linear models to estimate the increase in length of stay and cost associated with complications, adjusting for patient characteristics. Within 30 days of hospital discharge, 1151 (5.72%) patients experienced a complication with bleeding (3.35%) and pericardial effusion (0.75%) being the most common. On average, the occurrence of a complication was associated with an adjusted 3.3 (95% CI, 3.1-3.6) excess bed days of hospital care (totaling 3851 days), and a $7812 (95% CI, $6754-$8870) increase in hospitalization cost (totaling $9.0 million). Most of the total excess cost was attributable to bleeding ($3.8 million, 41.9% of total excess cost) and pericardial effusion ($1.6 million, 18.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Complications following atrial fibrillation ablation were associated with significant increase in length of stay and hospitalization costs, most of which were attributable to bleeding and pericardial effusion. Strategies to improve procedural safety and reduce health care costs should focus on these complications.

Measurement properties of utility-based health-related quality-of-life measures in cardiac rehabilitation: a systematic review protocol

OBJECTIVE

This review will identify and appraise existing evidence on the measurement properties of utility-based health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) measures used in cardiac rehabilitation programs. The review will map the measure domains against the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health and the International Consortium of Health Outcome Measures domains for cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION

Improving HRQoL is an international key indicator for delivering high-quality and person-centered secondary prevention programs. Many instruments and measures assess HRQoL in individuals undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Utility-based measures are suitable for calculating quality-adjusted life years, a required outcome metric in cost-utility analysis. Cost-utility analysis requires the use of utility-based HRQoL measures. However, there is no consensus on which utility-based measure is best for populations undergoing cardiac rehabilitation.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Eligible studies will include patients aged ≥18 years with cardiovascular disease who are undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Empirical studies that assess quality of life or HRQoL using a utility-based, health-related, patient-reported outcome measure or a measure accompanied by health state utilities will be eligible. Studies must report at least 1 of the following measurement properties: reliability, validity, responsiveness.

METHODS

This review will follow the JBI methodology for systematic reviews of measurement properties. The following databases will be searched from inception to the present: MEDLINE, Emcare, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection, Informit, PsyclNFO, REHABDATA, and the Cochrane Library. Studies will be critically appraised using the The COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) risk of bias checklist. The review will be reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022349395.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Assessing the validity and responsiveness of a generic preference quality of life measure in the context of posttraumatic stress disorder

PURPOSE

There is limited research exploring the usefulness of generic preference-based quality of life (GPQoL) measures used to facilitate economic evaluation in the context of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The aim of the current study was to explore the validity and responsiveness of a common GPQoL measure (Assessment of Quality of Life 8 Dimension [AQoL-8D]) in relation to a PTSD condition-specific outcome measure (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for the DSM-5 [PCL-5]).

METHOD

This aim was investigated in a sample of individuals (N = 147) who received trauma-focused cognitive-behavioural therapies for posttraumatic stress disorder. Convergent validity was investigated using spearman's correlations, and the level of agreement was investigated using Bland-Altman plots. Responsiveness was investigated by exploring the standardised response means (SRM) from pre-post-treatment across the two measures, which allow the comparison of the magnitude of change between the measures over time.

RESULTS

Correlations between the AQoL-8D (dimensions, utility and summary total scores) and the PCL-5 total score ranged from small to large and agreement between the measures was considered moderate to good. While SRMs were large for the AQoL-8D and PCL-5 total scores, the SRM for the PCL-5 was nearly double that of the AQoL-8D.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that the AQoL-8D has good construct validity but present preliminary evidence that economic evaluations using only GPQoL measures may not fully capture the effectiveness of PTSD treatments.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of the EQ-5D-5L, EQ-VAS stand-alone component and Oxford knee score in the Australian knee arthroplasty population utilising minimally important difference, concurrent validity, predictive validity and responsiveness

PURPOSE

To evaluate the Oxford Knee Score (OKS), EQ-5D-5L utility index and EQ-5D visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) for health-related quality of life outcome measurement in patients undergoing elective total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery.

METHODS

In this prospective multi-centre study, the OKS and EQ-5D-5L index scores were collected preoperatively, six weeks (6w) and six months (6 m) following TKA. The OKS, EQ-VAS and EQ-5D-5L index were evaluated for minimally important difference (MID), concurrent validity, predictive validity (Spearman's Rho of predicted and observed values from a generalised linear regression model (GLM)), responsiveness (effect size (ES) and standard response mean (SRM)). The MID for the individual patient was determined utilising two approaches; distribution-based and anchor-based.

RESULTS

533 patients were analysed. The EQ-5D-5L utility index showed good concurrent validity with the OKS (r = 0.72 preoperatively, 0.65 at 6w and 0.69 at 6 m). Predictive validity for the EQ-5D-5L index was lower than OKS when regressed. Responsiveness was large for all fields at 6w for the EQ-5D-5L and OKS (EQ-5D-5L ES 0.87, SRM 0.84; OKS ES 1.35, SRM 1.05) and 6 m (EQ-5D-5L index ES 1.31, SRM 0.95; OKS ES 1.69, SRM 1.59). The EQ-VAS returned poorer results, at 6w an ES of 0.37 (small) and SRM of 0.36 (small). At 6 m, the EQ-VAS had an ES of 0.59 (moderate) and SRM of 0.47 (small). It, however, had similar predictive validity to the OKS, and better than the EQ-5D-5L index. MID determined using anchor approach, was shown that for OKS at 6 weeks it was 8.84 ± 9.28 and at 6 months 13.37 ± 9.89. For the EQ-5D-5L index at 6 weeks MID was 0.23 ± 0.39, and at 6 months 0.26 ± 0.36.

CONCLUSIONS

The EQ-5D-5L index score and the OKS demonstrate good concurrent validity. The EQ-5D-5L index demonstrated lower predictive validity at 6w, and 6 m than the OKS, and both PROMs had adequate responsiveness. The EQ-VAS had poorer responsiveness but better predictive validity than the EQ-5D-5L index. This article includes MID estimates for the Australian knee arthroplasty population.

Mortality and costs related to severe acute pancreatitis in the intensive care units of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), 2003-2020

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Comprehensive data on the burden of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in global intensive care units (ICUs) and trends over time are lacking. Our objective was to compare trends in hospital and ICU mortality, in-hospital and ICU length of stay, and costs related to ICU admission in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) for SAP.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, observational, cohort study of ICU admissions reported to the ANZ Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database over three consecutive six-year time periods from 2003 to 2020.

RESULTS

12,635 patients with SAP from 189 ICUs in ANZ were analysed. No difference in adjusted hospital mortality (11.4% vs 11.5% vs 11.0%, p = 0.85) and ICU mortality rates (7.5% vs 8.0% vs 8.1%, p = 0.73) were noted over the study period. Median length of hospital admission reduced over time (13.9 days in 2003-08, 13.1 days in 2009-14 and 12.5 days in 2015-20; p < 0.01). No difference in length of ICU stay was noted over the study period (p = 0.13). The cost of managing SAP in ANZ ICUs remained constant over the three time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically-ill SAP patients in ANZ, no change in mortality has been noted over nearly two decades. There was a slight reduction in hospital stay (1 day), while the length of ICU stay remained unchanged. Given the significant costs related to care of patients with SAP in ICU, these findings highlight the need to prioritise resource allocation for healthcare delivery and targeted clinical research to identify treatments aimed at reducing mortality.

Responsiveness and construct validity of EPIC-26, AQoL-6D and SF-6D following treatment in prostate cancer

PURPOSE

To assess construct validity and responsiveness of the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite Instrument (EPIC-26) relative to the Short-Form Six-Dimension (SF-6D) and Assessment of Quality of Life 6-Dimension (AQoL-6D) in patients following treatment for prostate cancer.

METHODS

Retrospective prostate cancer registry data were used. The SF-6D, AQoL-6D, and EPIC-26 were collected at baseline and one year post treatment. Analyses were based on Spearman's correlation coefficient, Bland-Altman plots and intra-class correlation coefficient, Kruskal Wallis, and Effect Size and the Standardised Response Mean for responsiveness.

RESULTS

The study sample was comprised of 1915 patients. Complete case analysis of 3,697 observations showed moderate evidence of convergent validity between EPIC-26 vitality/hormonal domain and AQoL-6D (r = 0.45 and 0.54) and SF-6D (r = 0.52 and 0.56) at both timepoints. Vitality/hormonal domain also showed moderate convergent validity with coping domain of AQoL-6D (r = 0.45 and 0.54) and with role (r = 0.41 and 0.49) and social function (r = 0.47 and 0.50) domains of SF-6D at both timepoints, and with independent living (r = 0.40) and mental health (r = 0.43) of AQoL-6D at one year. EPIC-26 sexual domain had moderate convergent validity with relationship domain (r = 0.42 and 0.41) of AQoL-6D at both timepoints. Both AQoL-6D and SF-6D did not discriminate between age groups and tumour stage at both timepoints but AQoL-6D discriminated between outcomes for different treatments at one year. All EPIC-26 domains discriminated between age groups and treatment at both timepoints. The EPIC-26 was more responsive than AQoL-6D and SF-6D between baseline and one year following treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

AQoL-6D can be used in combination with EPIC-26 in place of SF-12. Although EPIC-26 is not utility based, its popularity amongst clinicians and ability to discriminate between disease-specific characteristics and post-treatment outcomes in clinical trials makes it a candidate for use within cost-effectiveness analyses. The generic measure provides a holistic assessment of quality of life and is suitable for generating quality adjusted life years (QALYs).

Short-term difference only in reported outcomes (PROMs) after anterior or posterior approach to total hip arthroplasty: a 4-year prospective multi-centre observational study

BACKGROUND

The direct anterior approach (DAA) in total hip arthroplasty (THA) may demonstrate better functional recovery compared to the posterior approach (PA).

METHODS

In this prospective multi-centre study, patient-related outcome measures (PROMs) and length of stay (LOS) were compared between DAA and PA THA patients. The Oxford Hip Score (OHS), EQ-5D-5L, pain and satisfaction scores were collected at four perioperative stages.

RESULTS

337 DAA and 187 PA THAs were included. The OHS PROM was significantly better in the DAA group at 6 weeks post-operatively (OHS: 33 vs. 30, p = 0.02, EQ-5D-5L: 80 vs. 75, p = 0.03), but there were no differences at 6 months and at 1 year. EQ-5D-5L scores were similar between both groups at all time points. LOS as inpatient was significantly different, in favour of DAA [median 2 days (IQR 2-3) vs. PA 3 (IQR 2-4), p ≤ 0.0001].

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing DAA THA have shorter LOS and report better short-term Oxford Hip Score PROMs at 6 weeks, but DAA did not convey long-term benefits over PA THA.

Finding My Way-Advanced: can a web-based psychosocial intervention improve the mental quality of life for women with metastatic breast cancer vs attention-control? Study protocol of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Women living with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are at risk of significantly impaired quality of life (QOL), symptom burden, distress and fear of progression, and unmet needs, yet they face barriers to accessing evidence-based psychosocial treatments. Our group therefore developed Finding My Way-Advanced (FMW-A), a web-based self-guided psychosocial program for women with MBC. This study aims to assess its efficacy in improving mental and other QOL domains, distress, fear of progression, unmet needs, and health service utilisation.

METHODS

The multi-site randomised controlled trial (RCT) will enrol 370 Australian participants. Eligible participants are adult (18 years +) women diagnosed with MBC, with a life expectancy of 6 months or more, with sufficient English-language literacy to provide informed consent. Participants will be identified, screened and referred from one of 10 Australian sites, or via self-referral in response to advertisements. Participants complete four online questionnaires: prior to accessing their program ('baseline'), 6 weeks later ('post-intervention'), then 3 months and 6 months post-intervention. Consenting participants will be randomised to either FMW-A (intervention), or Breast Cancer Network Australia's (BCNA) online/app resource My Journey (minimal intervention attention-control). This is a single-blind study, with randomisation computer-generated and stratified by site. FMW-A is a 6-module program addressing some of the most common issues experienced by women with MBC, with BCNA control resources integrated within the 'resources' section. All modules are immediately accessible, with an additional booster module released 10 weeks later. The primary outcome is mental QOL; statistical criteria for superiority is defined as a 4-point difference between groups at post-treatment. Secondary outcomes include other QOL domains, distress, fear of progression, health service use, intervention adherence, and user satisfaction.

DISCUSSION

This will be the first adequately powered RCT of a self-directed online intervention for women with MBC. If efficacious, FMW-A will help address two national key priorities for management of MBC - enhancing QOL and reducing symptom burden. FMW-A has the potential to address unmet needs and overcome access barriers for this overlooked population, while reducing health system burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered prospectively with the ANZCTR on 29/10/2021. Trial ID ACTRN12621001482853p.  https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=382714&isReview=true.

A longitudinal validation of the EQ-5D-5L and EQ-VAS stand-alone component utilising the Oxford Hip Score in the Australian hip arthroplasty population

Purpose

To evaluate the measurement properties of the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), EQ-5D-5L utility index and EQ-5D-5L visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) in patients undergoing elective total hip arthroplasty in Australia.

Methods

In this prospective multi-centre study, the OHS and EQ-5D-5L were collected preoperatively, six weeks (6w) and six months (6m) postoperatively. The OHS, EQ-VAS and EQ-5D-5L index were evaluated for concurrent validity, predictive validity (Spearman's Rho of predicted and observed values from a generalised linear regression model (GLM)), and responsiveness (effect size (ES) and standard response mean (SRM)).

Results

362 patients were included in this analysis for 6w and 269 for 6m. The EQ-5D-5L index showed good concurrent validity with the OHS (r = 0.71 preoperatively, 0.61 at 6w and 0.59 at 6m). Predictive validity for EQ-5D-5L index was similar to OHS when regressed (GLM). Responsiveness was good at 6w (EQ-5D-5L index ES 1.53, SRM 1.40; OHS ES 2.16, SRM 1.51) and 6m (EQ-5D-5L index ES 1.88, SRM 1.70; OHS ES 3.12, SRM 2.24). The EQ-VAS returned poorer results, at 6w an ES of 0.75 (moderate) and SRM 0.8. At 6m the EQ-VAS had an ES of 0.92 and SRM of 1.00. It, however, had greater predictive validity.

Conclusions

The EQ-5D-5L index and the OHS demonstrate strong concurrent validity. The EQ-5D-5L index demonstrated similar predictive validity at 6w and 6m, and both PROMs had adequate responsiveness. The EQ-VAS should be used routinely together with the EQ-5D-5L index. The EQ-5D-5L is suitable to quantify health-related quality of life in Australian hip arthroplasty patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41687-022-00482-7.

Thirty-Day Unplanned Readmissions Following Hospitalisation for Atrial Fibrillation in Australia and New Zealand

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of hospitalisations, yet little is known about 30-day readmissions following discharge despite increasing policy focus on reducing readmissions. We assessed the rate, timing, causes and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmission following an acute and elective AF hospitalisation using population-wide data.

METHODS

We studied all patients hospitalised for AF from 2010 to 2015 at all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. The main outcome measures were unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge, primary diagnosis associated with these readmissions, and their predictors as modelled by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 301,654 patients hospitalised for AF (mean age 69.2±13.6 yrs, 55.6% female, 65.2% acute presentations), 29,750 (9.9%) experienced an unplanned readmission within 30 days with 62.6% occurring by 14 days. Unplanned readmissions occurred more frequently following an acute versus elective AF hospitalisations (12.5% vs 4.9%, p<0.001). The most common diagnoses associated with readmissions were recurrence of AF (n=9,890, 33.2%), and preventable conditions including heart failure (n=2,683, 9.0%), pneumonia (n=724, 2.4%) and acute myocardial infarction (n=510, 1.7%). A higher risk of 30-day readmission was associated with congenital cardiac/circulatory defect (OR 2.18, CI 1.44-3.30), congestive heart failure (OR 1.34, CI 1.30-1.39), and arrhythmia/conduction disorders (OR 1.25, CI 1.21-1.28).

CONCLUSION

Almost 1 in 10 AF hospitalisations resulted in unplanned readmission within 30-days, mostly for AF recurrence. Improved clinical management of AF and transitional care planning are required to reduce unplanned readmissions following AF hospitalisations.

Preferred Attributes of Care Pathways for Obstructive Sleep Apnoea from the Perspective of Diagnosed Patients and High-Risk Individuals: A Discrete Choice Experiment

BACKGROUND

The current healthcare system is challenged with a large and rising demand for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) services. A paradigm shift in OSA management is required to incorporate the preferences of diagnosed patients and individuals at high risk of OSA.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to provide empirical evidence of the values and preferences of individuals diagnosed with OSA and high-risk populations regarding distinct OSA care pathway features.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was undertaken in two groups: those with a formal diagnosis of OSA (n = 421) and those undiagnosed but at high risk of having OSA (n = 1033). Participants were recruited from a large cross-sectional survey in Australia. The discrete choice experiment approach used mixed-logit regression models to determine preferences relating to eight salient features of the OSA management pathway, i.e. initial assessment provider, sleep study setting, diagnosis costs, waiting times, results interpretation, treatment options, provider of ongoing care and frequency of follow-up visits.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that all eight attributes investigated were statistically significant factors for respondents. Generally, both groups preferred low diagnostic costs, fewer follow-up visits, minimum waiting time for sleep study results and sleep specialists to recommend treatment. Management of OSA in primary care was acceptable to both groups and was the most preferred option by the high-risk group for the initial assessment, sleep study testing and ongoing care provision.

CONCLUSIONS

The discrete choice experiment results offer a promising approach for systematic incorporation of patient and high-risk group preferences into the future design and delivery of care pathways for OSA management.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does socioeconomic status impact the relationship between school absence and outcomes?

Absence from school, especially frequent or prolonged absence, is acknowledged as a potential factor in school dropout and suboptimal academic achievement. The issue of absence from school took on added significance in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, which resulted in schooling interruptions in several jurisdictions. However, there is little agreement in the literature on the exact relationship between absence and school outcomes as a function of socioeconomic status (SES). Using nationally representative pre-COVID longitudinal data of young Australians aged 12-13 and 14-15, this paper examines the relationship between absence from school on the one hand and school belonging and academic achievement (numeracy and reading test scores) on the other. The paper also examines whether SES intersects this relationship. Controlling for gender, prior educational achievement, computer access, and time spent doing homework, the study finds that absence impacts belonging, but that SES does not significantly influence this relationship. The effect of absence on reading is not significant either. However, absence is associated with numeracy outcomes, with the strongest associations among low SES young people at age 14. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13384-022-00535-2.

A general practice intervention for people at risk of poor health outcomes: the Flinders QUEST cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation

Objective

To determine whether a multicomponent general practice intervention cost‐effectively improves health outcomes and reduces health service use for patients at high risk of poor health outcomes.

Design, setting

Clustered randomised controlled trial in general practices in metropolitan Adelaide.

Participants

Three age‐based groups of patients identified by their general practitioners as being at high risk of poor health outcomes: children and young people (under 18 years), adults (18–64 years) with two or more chronic diseases, and older people (65 years or more).

Intervention

Enrolment of patients with a preferred GP, longer general practice appointments, and general practice follow‐up within seven days of emergency department and hospital care episodes. Intervention practices received payment of $1000 per enrolled participant.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome: change in self‐rated health between baseline and 12‐month follow‐up for control (usual care) and intervention groups. Secondary outcomes: numbers of emergency department presentations and hospital admissions, Medicare specialist claims and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) items supplied, Health Literacy Questionnaire scores, and cost‐effectiveness of the intervention (based on the number of quality‐adjusted life‐years [QALYs] gained over 12 months, derived from EQ‐5D‐5L utility scores for the two adult groups).

Results

Twenty practices with a total of 92 GPs were recruited, and 1044 eligible patients participated. The intervention did not improve self‐rated health (coefficient, –0.29; 95% CI, –2.32 to 1.73), nor did it have significant effects on the numbers of emergency department presentations (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.69–1.17), hospital admissions (IRR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.66–1.22), Medicare specialist claims (IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.91–1.09), or PBS items supplied (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96–1.03), nor on Health Literacy Questionnaire scores. The intervention was effective in terms of QALYs gained (v usual care: difference, 0.032 QALYs; 95% CI, 0.001–0.063), but the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio was $69 585 (95% CI, $22 968–$116 201) per QALY gained, beyond the willingness‐to‐pay threshold.

Conclusions

Our multicomponent intervention did not improve self‐rated health, health service use, or health literacy. It achieved greater improvement in quality of life than usual care, but not cost‐effectively.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12617001589370 (prospective).

Enhancing the cost-effectiveness of surgical care in pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and cost meta-analysis with trial sequential analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical pathways (CP) based on Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS®) are increasingly utilised in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). This systematic review aimed to compare the impact of CPs versus conventional care (CC) on peri-PD costs.

METHODS

A systematic review of major reference databases was undertaken. Quality assessment was performed using the CHEERS checklist. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as part of the cost-effectiveness analysis. A meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models and Trial sequential analysis (TSA) was used to assess the precision and conclusiveness of the results.

RESULTS

14 studies meeting inclusion criteria were included for full qualitative synthesis. All studies reported a reduction in overall costs, length of stay and overall complication rates for CPs when compared to CC. Meta-analysis performed on nine studies demonstrated significantly reduced costs in the CP group, with considerable heterogeneity (Pooled mean difference of $ 4.28 × 10³, p < 0.01, I² = 95%). Cost-effectiveness analysis in relation to complications demonstrated dominance of CPs over CC in being cheaper as well as more effective. TSA supported the cost benefit of enhanced-recovery CPs, displaying minimal type 1 error.

CONCLUSION

Peri-PD CPs result in significant cost-reduction in comparison to CC.

Implementation and prospective evaluation of the Country Heart Attack Prevention model of care to improve attendance and completion of cardiac rehabilitation for patients with cardiovascular diseases living in rural Australia: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Despite extensive evidence of its benefits and recommendation by guidelines, cardiac rehabilitation (CR) remains highly underused with only 20%-50% of eligible patients participating. We aim to implement and evaluate the Country Heart Attack Prevention (CHAP) model of care to improve CR attendance and completion for rural and remote participants.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

CHAP will apply the model for large-scale knowledge translation to develop and implement a model of care to CR in rural Australia. Partnering with patients, clinicians and health service managers, we will codevelop new approaches and refine/expand existing ones to address known barriers to CR attendance. CHAP will codesign a web-based CR programme with patients expanding their choices to CR attendance. To increase referral rates, CHAP will promote endorsement of CR among clinicians and develop an electronic system that automatises referrals of in-hospital eligible patients to CR. A business model that includes reimbursement of CR delivered in primary care by Medicare will enable sustainable access to CR. To promote CR quality improvement, professional development interventions and an accreditation programme of CR services and programmes will be developed. To evaluate 12-month CR attendance/completion (primary outcome), clinical and cost-effectiveness (secondary outcomes) between patients exposed (n=1223) and not exposed (n=3669) to CHAP, we will apply a multidesign approach that encompasses a prospective cohort study, a pre-post study and a comprehensive economic evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Southern Adelaide Clinical Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/20/SAC/78) and by the Department for Health and Wellbeing Human Research Ethics Committee (2021/HRE00270), which approved a waiver of informed consent. Findings and dissemination to patients and clinicians will be through a public website, online educational sessions and scientific publications. Deidentified data will be available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621000222842.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Nurse Led Clinics; a Novel Model of Care for Compensated Liver Cirrhosis: A Qualitative Analysis

A nurse-led cirrhosis clinic model for management of stable, compensated cirrhotic patients is practised in our unit since 2013, wherein these patients are reviewed every six months by specialist nurses in community clinics under remote supervision of hepatologists. We evaluated the experiences of patients and healthcare providers involved in the model to understand the acceptability, strengths, and limitations of the model and obtain suggestions to improve. A qualitative design using in-depth interviews was employed, followed by thematic analysis of eight patients, one attending physician both nurse and hospital clinics, four hepatologists, and three experienced specialist nurses running the nurse-led cirrhosis clinic. Patients expressed satisfaction and a good understanding of the nurse-led cirrhosis clinic, preferring it to hospital clinics for better accessibility and the unique nurse-patient relationship. Upskilling and provision of professional care in a holistic manner were appreciated by specialist nurses. The hepatologists expressed confidence and satisfaction, although they acknowledged the difference between the medical training of specialist nurses and hepatologists. The greater availability of hospital clinic time for sick patients was welcomed. Increased specialist nurse staffing, regular forums to promote specialist nurse learning, and formalization of the referral process were suggested. No adverse experiences were reported by patients or staff. The nurse-led cirrhosis clinic model for compensated liver cirrhosis was well received by patients, hepatologists, and specialist nurses. Wider implementation of the model could be considered after further investigations in other settings.

Incidence and causes of early unplanned readmission after hospitalisation with peripheral arterial disease in Australia and New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the characteristics and predictors of unplanned readmission within 30 days of hospitalisation for the treatment of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in Australia and New Zealand.

DESIGN

Analysis of hospitalisations data in the Admitted Patient Collection for each Australian state and territory and the New Zealand National Minimum Dataset (Hospital Events).

SETTING

All public and 80% of private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults (18 years or older) hospitalised with a primary or conditional secondary diagnosis of PAD during 1 January 2010 - 31 December 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Rate of unplanned readmission (any cause) within 30 days of hospitalisation with PAD.

RESULTS

Of 104 979 admissions included in our analysis (mean patient age, 73.7 years; SD, 12.4 years), 9765 were followed by at least one unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge (9.3%): 3395 within one week (34.8%) and 7828 within three weeks (80.2%). The most frequent readmission primary diagnoses were atherosclerosis (1477, 15.3%), type 2 diabetes (1057, 10.8%), and "complications of procedures not elsewhere classified" (963, 9.9%). Readmission was more frequent after acute (4830 of 26 304, 18.4%) than elective PAD hospitalisations (4935 of 78 675, 6.3%), but the readmission characteristics were similar. Factors associated with greater likelihood of readmission included acute PAD hospitalisations (odds ratio [OR], 2.04; 95% CI, 1.96-2.17), surgical intervention during the PAD hospitalisation (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.64-1.84), and chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.47-1.63).

CONCLUSION

Unplanned readmissions within 30 days of hospitalisation for PAD are often for potentially preventable reasons. Their number should be reduced to improve clinical outcomes for people with PAD.

A preference for quality: Australian general public's willingness to pay for home and residential aged care

In Australia and many other countries internationally, aged care services are provided to older people in their own homes or residential care facilities. The majority of these services are funded by the federal government using taxpayer contributions from the general public. However, the monetary value Australians place on aged care services, and the factors that predict this value, have not been examined. We, therefore, sought to determine the general public's willingness to pay (WTP) for aged care services and examine which factors influence this WTP. A cross-sectional contingent valuation survey was administered to a nationally representative cohort of 10,285 Australians between September and October 2020 from the general population aged 18 years and over. Respondents were asked to indicate their WTP values for satisfactory and high-quality aged care services to be provided in the future. A two-part regression model was used to explain what factors explained variation in WTP. In total, 80% (61%) of respondents were willing to pay to access satisfactory (high) quality home care (counterpart figures for residential care were 64% (45%)). On average, respondents were willing to pay between $126 and $158 ($145 and $237) per week to receive satisfactory-quality (high-quality) home care and between $333 and $520 ($308 and $680) per week for satisfactory-quality (high-quality) residential care. Respondents were willing to pay an additional $120 per week on average to access high-quality aged care. Higher WTP values were generally associated with being younger, male, recent experience with aged care through a close family member accessing aged care and ability to pay. These results suggest general public support for payment of individual co-contributions to access aged care services in the future.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of oral anticancer drugs and associated individualised dosing approaches in patients with cancer: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticancer drugs (OADs) have rapidly expanded with more than 70 OADs targeting several molecular targets. Many of the OADs exert an exposure-response relationship but still, a 'one-size fits-all' dose is used, ignoring interindividual variability. Several of these OADs share similar mechanisms of actions and thus target the same cancer and has resulted in a substantial research focus on comparing the health benefit of each. However, significantly less is known about the cost-benefit associated with OADs. This paper will provide a protocol to systematically review studies that have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of OADs and their associated individualised dosing interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Systematic review methodology will be applied to identify, select and extract data from published economic evaluation (costs and outcomes/benefits) studies of OADs and their associated individualised dosing interventions. Bibliographic databases (eg, Ovid EMBASE, Ovid MEDLINE) will be used to perform the systematic literature search (between 1 January 2000 and October 2020). Only full economic evaluations will be included, but no restrictions on study outcomes will be applied. The quality of included primary studies will be assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist for reporting economic evaluations. Studies with low-quality evidence will be excluded. A narrative synthesis of the results from the included studies will be undertaken, with a subgroup analysis where appropriate.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This systematic review will not require ethics approval as there will not be any collection of primary data. Findings of this review will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals, presentations at workshops or conferences and sharing through a media release. Findings from this review will provide evidence to direct and inform policy-makers where cost-neutral strategies may be effective or where dose individualising strategies may be economically beneficial. Additionally, gaps will be identified in the current literature to inform future-related research.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020218170.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL

The online version of this article contains supplemental material, which is available to authorised users.

Volumetric MRI analysis of Multilevel Upper Airway Surgery effects on pharyngeal structure

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The Sleep Apnea Multilevel Surgery (SAMS) trial found that modified uvulopalatopharyngoplasty with tonsillectomy (if tonsils present) combined with radiofrequency tongue ablation reduced obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity and daytime sleepiness in moderate-severe OSA. This study aimed to investigate mechanisms of effect on Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) reduction by assessing changes in upper airway volumes (airway space, soft palate, tongue, and intra-tongue fat).

METHODS

This is a case series analysis of forty-three participants of 51 randomized to the surgical arm of SAMS trial who underwent repeat magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Upper airway volume, length, and cross-sectional area, soft palate and tongue volumes and tongue fat were measured. Relationships between changes in anatomical structures and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) were assessed.

RESULTS

The participant sample was predominantly male (79%); mean ± SD age 42.7 ± 13.3 years, body mass index 30.8 ± 4.1 kg.m 2, and AHI 47.0 ± 22.3 events/hour. There were no, or minor, overall volumetric changes in the airway, soft palate, total tongue, or tongue fat volume. Post-surgery there was an increase in the minimum cross-sectional area by 0.1 cm 2 (95% confidence interval 0.04-0.2cm 2) in the pharyngeal airway, but not statistically significant on corrected analysis. There was no association with anatomical changes and AHI improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

This contemporary multi-level upper airway surgery has been shown to be an effective OSA treatment. The current anatomical investigation suggests there are not significant post-operative volumetric changes associated with OSA improvement six-months post-surgery. This suggests that effect on OSA improvement is achieved without notable deformation of airway volume. Reduced need for neuromuscular compensation during wake following anatomical improvement via surgery could explain lack of measurable volume change. Further research to understand the mechanisms of action of multilevel surgery is required.

How, why and under what circumstances does a quality improvement collaborative build knowledge and skills in clinicians working with people with dementia? A realist informed process evaluation

In increasingly constrained health and aged care services, strategies are needed to improve quality and translate evidence into practice. In dementia care, recent failures in quality and safety have led the WHO to prioritise the translation of known evidence into practice. While quality improvement collaboratives have been widely used in healthcare, there are few examples in dementia care.

We describe a recent quality improvement collaborative to improve dementia care across Australia and assess the implementation outcomes of acceptability and feasibility of this strategy to translate known evidence into practice. A realist-informed process evaluation was used to analyse how, why and under what circumstances a quality improvement collaborative built knowledge and skills in clinicians working in dementia care.

This realist-informed process evaluation developed, tested and refined the programme theory of a quality improvement collaborative. Data were collected pre-intervention and post-intervention using surveys and interviews with participants (n=28). A combined inductive and deductive data analysis process integrated three frameworks to examine the context and mechanisms of knowledge and skill building in participant clinicians.

A refined program theory showed how and why clinicians built knowledge and skills in quality improvement in dementia care. Six mechanisms were identified: motivation, accountability, identity, collective learning, credibility and reflective practice. These mechanisms, in combination, operated to overcome constraints, role boundaries and pessimism about improved practice in dementia care.

A quality improvement collaborative designed for clinicians in different contexts and roles was acceptable and feasible in building knowledge, skills and confidence of clinicians to improve dementia care. Supportive reflective practice and a credible, flexible and collaborative process optimised quality improvement knowledge and skills in clinicians working with people with dementia.

Trial registration number

ACTRN12618000268246.

Has consumer-directed care improved the quality of life of older Australians? An exploratory empirical assessment

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of a Consumer Directed Care (CDC) model of service delivery on the quality of life of older people receiving home care packages.

METHODS

Quality of life was assessed using validated instruments. The relationship between quality of life and length of time exposed to CDC was examined using descriptive statistical and multivariate regression analyses.

RESULTS

Consenting older adults (n = 150) in receipt of home care packages participated. Quality of life and capability scores were higher for older people in receipt of a CDC model of service delivery for <12 months compared to those receiving the model of care for longer, although this difference was not statistically significant. However, older people with more recent exposure to CDC indicated a stronger capability to do things that made them feel valued.

CONCLUSION

Extended longitudinal follow-up is needed to facilitate a detailed examination of the relationship between the evolution of CDC and its longer-term influences on quality of life.

Economic evaluation of diagnostic sleep studies for obstructive sleep apnoea: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is a significant public health problem affecting a large proportion of the population and is associated with adverse health consequences and a substantial economic burden. Despite the existence of effective treatment, undiagnosed OSA remains a challenge. The gold standard diagnostic tool is polysomnography (PSG), yet the test is expensive, labour intensive and time-consuming. Home-based, limited channel sleep study testing (levels 3 and 4) can advance and widen access to diagnostic services. This systematic review aims to summarise available evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of limited channel tests compared to laboratory and home PSG in diagnosing OSA.

METHODS

Eligible studies will be identified using a comprehensive strategy across the following databases from inception onwards: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, SCOPUS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Emcare and Web of Science Core Collection and ProQuest databases. The search will include a full economic evaluation (i.e. cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, cost-consequences and cost-minimisation analysis) that assesses limited channel tests and PSG. Two reviewers will screen, extract data for included studies and critically appraise the articles for bias and quality. Meta-analyses will be conducted if aggregation of outcomes can be performed. Qualitative synthesis using a dominance ranking matrix will be performed for heterogeneous data.

DISCUSSION

This systematic review protocol uses a rigorous, reproducible and transparent methodology and eligibility criteria to provide the current evidence relating to the clinical and economic impact of limited channel and full PSG OSA diagnostic tests. Evidence will be examined using standardised tools specific for economic evaluation studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42020150130).

HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitudes assessment among women of child-bearing age in South Sudan: Findings from a Household Survey

This study assessed the determinants that shape HIV knowledge and attitudes among South Sudanese women by analysing a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey collected from 9,061 women in 9,369 households. Generalised linear mixed model regression was performed. Fifty percent of respondents were aware of HIV/AIDS, with 21% and 22% exhibiting good knowledge and positive attitudes towards people with HIV/AIDS, respectively. When controlled for individual and community-level variables, younger women (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-162), women with primary (AOR = 2.19; 95% CI: 1.86-2.58) and secondary (AOR = 4.48; 95% CI: 3.38-5.93) education, and those living in urban areas (AOR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.12-1.76) had significantly good knowledge. Women in the richer (AOR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.08-2.36) and the richest (AOR = 2.02; 95% CI: 1.35-3.02) wealth quintiles had significant positive attitudes towards people with HIV/AIDS. Well-designed social and behavioural campaigns targeting uneducated women and those living in rural and remote settings will enhance knowledge of perceived risk, awareness, and ability to carry out preventive behaviours.

Late mortality in people with cancer: a population-based Australian study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate causes of death of people with cancer alive five years after diagnosis, and to compare mortality rates for this group with those of the general population.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study; analysis of South Australian Cancer Registry data for all people diagnosed with cancer during 1990-1999 and alive five years after diagnosis, with follow-up to 31 December 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and cancer cause-specific mortality, by cancer diagnosis; standardised mortality ratios (study group v SA general population) by sex, age at diagnosis, follow-up period, and index cancer.

RESULTS

Of 32 646 people with cancer alive five years after diagnosis, 30 309 were of European background (93%) and 16 400 were males (50%); the mean age at diagnosis was 60.3 years (SD, 15.7 years). The median follow-up time was 17 years (IQR, 11-21 years); 17 268 deaths were recorded (53% of patients; mean age, 80.6 years; SD, 11.4 years): 7845 attributed to cancer (45% of deaths) and 9423 attributed to non-cancer causes (55%). Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death (2393 deaths), followed by prostate cancer (1424), cerebrovascular disease (1175), and breast cancer (1118). The overall standardised mortality ratio (adjusted for age, sex, and year of diagnosis) was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.22-1.25). The cumulative number of cardiovascular deaths exceeded that of cancer cause-specific deaths from 13 years after cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among people with cancer who are alive at least five years after diagnosis was higher than for the general population, particularly cardiovascular disease-related mortality. Survivorship care should include early recognition and management of risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

The effect of cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia on sedative-hypnotic use: A narrative review

Although cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia (CBTi) is the recommended 'first-line' treatment for insomnia, most patients are initially treated with sedative-hypnotic medications. Given the risk of impaired cognitive and psychomotor performance, serious adverse events, and long-term dependence associated with sedative-hypnotics, guidelines recommend that prescriptions should be limited to short-term use and that patients are provided with support for withdrawal where possible. CBTi is an effective insomnia treatment in the presence of sedative-hypnotic use. Furthermore, guidelines recommended that CBTi techniques are utilised to facilitate withdrawal from sedative-hypnotics. However, there is very little research evaluating the effect of CBTi on reduced medication use. The current narrative review integrates 95 studies including over 10,000 participants, investigating the effect of CBTi on reduced sedative-hypnotic use in different populations (e.g., hypnotic-dependent patients, older adults, military personnel), settings (e.g., primary care settings, psychiatric inpatients), CBTi modalities (e.g., self-administered reading/audio materials, digital, and therapist-administered), and in combination with gradual dose reduction programs. Based on this research, we discuss the theoretical mechanistic effects of CBTi in facilitating reduced sedative-hypnotic use, provide clear recommendations for future research, and offer pragmatic clinical suggestions to increase access to CBTi to reduce dependence on sedative-hypnotics as the 'default' treatment for insomnia.

Improving adherence to guideline recommendations in dementia care through establishing a quality improvement collaborative of agents of change: an interrupted time series study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmacological interventions including physical activity programmes, occupational therapy and caregiver education programmes have been shown to lead to better outcomes for people with dementia and their care partners. Yet, there are gaps between what is recommended in guidelines and what happens in practice. The aim of this study was to bring together clinicians working in dementia care and establish a quality improvement collaborative. The aim of the quality improvement collaborative was to increase self-reported guideline adherence to three guideline recommendations.

METHODS

Interrupted time series. We recruited health professionals from community, hospital and aged care settings across Australia to join the collaborative. Members of the collaborative participated in a start-up meeting, completed an online learning course with clinical and quality improvement content, formed a quality improvement plan which was reviewed by a team of experts, received feedback following an audit of their current practice and were able to share experiences with their peers. The primary outcome was self-reported adherence to their guideline recommendation of interest which was measured using checklists. Data were collected monthly over a period of 18 months, and the study used an interrupted time series design and multilevel Poisson regression analysis to evaluate changes in self-reported adherence.

RESULTS

A total of 45 health professionals (78% therapists) from different sites joined the collaborative and 28 completed all requirements. Data from 1717 checklists were included in the analyses. Over the duration of the project, there was a significant increase in clinician self-reported adherence to guideline recommendations with a 42.1% immediate increase in adherence (incidence rate ratio = 1.42; 95% confidence interval = 1.08-1.87; p = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

Health professionals working with people with dementia are interested in and willing to join a quality improvement collaborative with the goal of improving non-pharmacological aspects of care. Participation in the collaborative improved the quality of care for people with dementia as measured through self-reported adherence to guideline recommendations. Although there are challenges in implementation of guideline recommendations within dementia care, the quality improvement collaborative method was considered successful. A strength was that it equipped and empowered clinicians to lead improvement activities and allowed for heterogeneity in terms of service and setting.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12618000268246.

Effect of Multilevel Upper Airway Surgery vs Medical Management on the Apnea-Hypopnea Index and Patient-Reported Daytime Sleepiness Among Patients With Moderate or Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea: The SAMS Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Many adults with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) use device treatments inadequately and remain untreated.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether combined palatal and tongue surgery to enlarge or stabilize the upper airway is an effective treatment for patients with OSA when conventional device treatment failed.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Multicenter, parallel-group, open-label randomized clinical trial of upper airway surgery vs ongoing medical management. Adults with symptomatic moderate or severe OSA in whom conventional treatments had failed were enrolled between November 2014 and October 2017, with follow-up until August 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

Multilevel surgery (modified uvulopalatopharyngoplasty and minimally invasive tongue volume reduction; n = 51) or ongoing medical management (eg, advice on sleep positioning, weight loss; n = 51).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcome measures were the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI; ie, the number of apnea and hypopnea events/h; 15-30 indicates moderate and >30 indicates severe OSA) and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS; range, 0-24; >10 indicates pathological sleepiness). Baseline-adjusted differences between groups at 6 months were assessed. Minimal clinically important differences are 15 events per hour for AHI and 2 units for ESS.

RESULTS

Among 102 participants who were randomized (mean [SD] age, 44.6 [12.8] years; 18 [18%] women), 91 (89%) completed the trial. The mean AHI was 47.9 at baseline and 20.8 at 6 months for the surgery group and 45.3 at baseline and 34.5 at 6 months for the medical management group (mean baseline-adjusted between-group difference at 6 mo, -17.6 events/h [95% CI, -26.8 to -8.4]; P < .001). The mean ESS was 12.4 at baseline and 5.3 at 6 months in the surgery group and 11.1 at baseline and 10.5 at 6 months in the medical management group (mean baseline-adjusted between-group difference at 6 mo, -6.7 [95% CI, -8.2 to -5.2]; P < .001). Two participants (4%) in the surgery group had serious adverse events (1 had a myocardial infarction on postoperative day 5 and 1 was hospitalized for observation following hematemesis of old blood).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this preliminary study of adults with moderate or severe OSA in whom conventional therapy had failed, combined palatal and tongue surgery, compared with medical management, reduced the number of apnea and hypopnea events and patient-reported sleepiness at 6 months. Further research is needed to confirm these findings in additional populations and to understand clinical utility, long-term efficacy, and safety of multilevel upper airway surgery for treatment of patients with OSA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12614000338662.

Psychometric validation of the Partners in Health scale as a self-management tool in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease complicated by recurrent hospital admissions. Self-management skills could facilitate optimal disease management. At present there is no validated instrument for measuring self-management in these patients. Hence, we evaluated the internal reliability and construct validity of the Partners in Health (PIH) scale, a chronic condition self-management tool in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, the PIH scale was administered to 133 consenting patients within a Chronic Liver Failure Program of a tertiary hospital from February 2017 to May 2018. A Bayesian confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate a priori four-factor structure. Omega coefficients and 95% credible intervals (CrI) were used to assess internal reliability. Known-group validity was assessed in patients receiving active case management (n = 60) versus those without (n = 73).

RESULTS

The mean (± standard deviation (SD)) age of the participants was 62 (±11) years. Model fit for the hypothesised model was adequate (posterior predictive P-value = 0.073) and all hypothesised factor loadings were substantial (>0.6) and significant (P < 0.001). Omega coefficients (95% CrI) for the PIH subscales of Knowledge, Partnership, Management and Coping were 0.88 (0.82-0.91), 0.68 (0.57-0.76), 0.92 (0.89-0.94) and 0.89 (0.85-0.92) respectively. The mean (±SD) overall PIH score was higher in patients receiving case management compared to those without case management (81 ± 12 vs 73 ± 17, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The dimensionality, known-group validity and reliability of the PIH scale for measuring self-management in patients with liver cirrhosis were confirmed. Its clinical predictive value requires further assessment.

SAFety, Effectiveness of care and Resource use among Australian Hospitals (SAFER Hospitals): a protocol for a population-wide cohort study of outcomes of hospital care

INTRODUCTION

Despite global concerns about the safety and quality of health care, population-wide studies of hospital outcomes are uncommon. The SAFety, Effectiveness of care and Resource use among Australian Hospitals (SAFER Hospitals) study seeks to estimate the incidence of serious adverse events, mortality, unplanned rehospitalisations and direct costs following hospital encounters using nationwide data, and to assess the variation and trends in these outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

SAFER Hospitals is a cohort study with retrospective and prospective components. The retrospective component uses data from 2012 to 2018 on all hospitalised patients age ≥18 years included in each State and Territories' Admitted Patient Collections. These routinely collected datasets record every hospital encounter from all public and most private hospitals using a standardised set of variables including patient demographics, primary and secondary diagnoses, procedures and patient status at discharge. The study outcomes are deaths, adverse events, readmissions and emergency care visits. Hospitalisation data will be linked to subsequent hospitalisations and each region's Emergency Department Data Collections and Death Registries to assess readmissions, emergency care encounters and deaths after discharge. Direct hospital costs associated with adverse outcomes will be estimated using data from the National Cost Data Collection. Variation in these outcomes among hospitals will be assessed adjusting for differences in hospitals' case-mix. The prospective component of the study will evaluate the temporal change in outcomes every 4 years from 2019 until 2030.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Human Research Ethics Committees of the respective Australian states and territories provided ethical approval to conduct this study. A waiver of informed consent was granted for the use of de-identified patient data. Study findings will be disseminated via presentations at conferences and publications in peer-reviewed journals.

Validation of Knowledge Questionnaire for Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is no validated questionnaire to assess disease knowledge and self-management in patients with liver cirrhosis. We developed and validated a Cirrhosis Knowledge Questionnaire (CKQ).

METHODS

We created a preliminary CKQ comprising 10 questions relevant to self-management of cirrhosis, based on publications and clinical experiences. The CKQ was given to a pilot sample of 17 patients with decompensated cirrhosis to assess its face validity. In consultation with experts, we developed a second version of CKQ, comprising 14 multiple choice questions, and administered it to 116 patients with cirrhosis participating in a Chronic Liver Failure Program. The dimensionality of the construct was assessed using exploratory factor analysis and internal consistency was assessed with Cronbach's alpha. Known-group validity of the resulting instrument was assessed by comparing the performance of the CKQ in 69 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (mean age, 62 ± 13 years; 109 responses), with (n = 42) vs without (n = 67) case management.

RESULTS

A 3-factor model with 7 questions related to variceal bleeding, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy was considered the optimal dimensionality with excellent internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.82). The mean knowledge score was higher in patients with case management (5.6 ± 1.1) than in patients without case management (4.3 ± 2.1) (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a questionnaire with 7 questions on ascites, variceal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy to assess knowledge and self-management in patients with liver cirrhosis. Studies are needed to confirm its dimensionality and assess association of scores with patient outcomes.