Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Analytical validation of a novel comprehensive genomic profiling informed circulating tumor DNA monitoring assay for solid tumors

Emerging technologies focused on the detection and quantification of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in blood show extensive potential for managing patient treatment decisions, informing risk of recurrence, and predicting response to therapy. Currently available tissue-informed approaches are often limited by the need for additional sequencing of normal tissue or peripheral mononuclear cells to identify non-tumor-derived alterations while tissue-naïve approaches are often limited in sensitivity. Here we present the analytical validation for a novel ctDNA monitoring assay, FoundationOne®Tracker. The assay utilizes somatic alterations from comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP) of tumor tissue. A novel algorithm identifies monitorable alterations with a high probability of being somatic and computationally filters non-tumor-derived alterations such as germline or clonal hematopoiesis variants without the need for sequencing of additional samples. Monitorable alterations identified from tissue CGP are then quantified in blood using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction assay based on the validated SignateraTM assay. The analytical specificity of the plasma workflow is shown to be 99.6% at the sample level. Analytical sensitivity is shown to be >97.3% at ≥5 mean tumor molecules per mL of plasma (MTM/mL) when tested with the most conservative configuration using only two monitorable alterations. The assay also demonstrates high analytical accuracy when compared to liquid biopsy-based CGP as well as high qualitative (measured 100% PPA) and quantitative precision (<11.2% coefficient of variation).

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Chronic exposure to ambient air pollution and the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A cross-sectional study in Taiwan and Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Information on the relation of air pollution with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is scarce. We thus conducted a large cross-sectional study in Asia to investigate the role of air pollution in NAFLD.

METHODS

We recruited 329,048 adults (mean age: 41.0 years) without other liver disease (hepatitis and cirrhosis) or excessive alcohol consumption in Taiwan and Hong Kong from 2001 to 2018. The concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were estimated using a space-time regression model, and the concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was evaluated using a satellite-based spatio-temporal model. NAFLD was determined using either the fatty liver index (FLI) or the hepatic steatosis index (HSI). The NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis was defined according to BARD score or the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4). A logistic regression model was adopted to explore the relationships of ambient air pollution with the odds of NAFLD and NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis.

RESULTS

We found positive relationships between PM2.5 and the odds of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis, with every standard deviation (SD, 7.5 µg/m3) increases in PM2.5 exposure being associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9%-11%) increment in the prevalence of NAFLD and an 8% (95% CI: 7%-9%) increment in the prevalence of advanced fibrosis. Similarly, the prevalence of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis increased by 8% (95% CI: 7%-9%) and 7% (95% CI: 6%-8%) with per SD (18.9 µg/m3) increasement in NO2 concentration, respectively. Additionally, for every SD (9.9 µg/m3) increasement in O3 concentration, the prevalence of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis decreased by 12% (95% CI: 11%-13%) and 11% (95% CI: 9%-12%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Higher ambient PM2.5 and NO2 are linked with higher odds of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis. Our findings indicate that reducing PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations may be an effective way for preventing NAFLD. Further studies on O3 are warranted.

A phase I study to evaluate the safety, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of PF-06939999 (PRMT5 inhibitor) in patients with selected advanced or metastatic tumors with high incidence of splicing factor gene mutations

BACKGROUND

Protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5) methylates multiple substrates dysregulated in cancer, including spliceosome machinery components. PF-06939999 is a selective small-molecule PRMT5 inhibitor.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This phase I dose-escalation and -expansion trial (NCT03854227) enrolled patients with selected solid tumors. PF-06939999 was administered orally once or twice a day (q.d./b.i.d.) in 28-day cycles. The objectives were to evaluate PF-06939999 safety and tolerability to identify maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and recommended part 2 dose (RP2D), and assess pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics [changes in plasma symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) levels], and antitumor activities.

RESULTS

In part 1 dose escalation, 28 patients received PF-06939999 (0.5 mg q.d. to 6 mg b.i.d.). Four of 24 (17%) patients reported dose-limiting toxicities: thrombocytopenia (n = 2, 6 mg b.i.d.), anemia (n = 1, 8 mg q.d.), and neutropenia (n = 1, 6 mg q.d.). PF-06939999 exposure increased with dose. Steady-state PK was achieved by day 15. Plasma SDMA was reduced at steady state (58%-88%). Modulation of plasma SDMA was dose dependent. No MTD was determined. In part 2 dose expansion, 26 patients received PF-06939999 6 mg q.d. (RP2D). Overall (part 1 + part 2), the most common grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events included anemia (28%), thrombocytopenia/platelet count decreased (22%), fatigue (6%), and neutropenia (4%). Three patients (6.8%) had confirmed partial response (head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, n = 1; non-small-cell lung cancer, n = 2), and 19 (43.2%) had stable disease. No predictive biomarkers were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

PF-06939999 demonstrated a tolerable safety profile and objective clinical responses in a subset of patients, suggesting that PRMT5 is an interesting cancer target with clinical validation. However, no predictive biomarker was identified. The role of PRMT5 in cancer biology is complex and requires further preclinical, mechanistic investigation to identify predictive biomarkers for patient selection.

Targeting oxidative stress with natural products: A novel strategy for esophageal cancer therapy

Esophageal cancer (ESC) is a malignant tumor that originates from the mucosal epithelium of the esophagus and is part of the digestive tract. Although the exact pathogenesis of ESC has not been fully elucidated, excessive oxidative stress is an important characteristic that leads to the development of many cancers. Abnormal expression of several proteins and transcription factors contributes to oxidative stress in ESCs, which alters the growth and proliferation of ESCs and promotes their metastasis. Natural compounds, including alkaloids, terpenes, polyphenols, and xanthine compounds, can inhibit reactive oxygen species production in ESCs. These compounds reduce oxidative stress levels and subsequently inhibit the occurrence and progression of ESC through the regulation of targets and pathways such as the cytokine interleukins 6 and 10, superoxide dismutase, the NF-+ACY-kappa+ADs-B/MAPK pathway, and the mammalian Nrf2/ARE target pathway. Thus, targeting tumor oxidative stress has become a key focus in anti-ESC therapy. This review discusses the potential of Natural products (NPs) for treating ESCs and summarizes the application prospects of oxidative stress as a new target for ESC treatment. The findings of this review provide a reference for drug development targeting ESCs. Nonetheless, further high-quality studies will be necessary to determine the clinical efficacy of these various NPs.

CircRSU1 alleviates LPS-induced human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cell injury by targeting miR-1224-5p/ITGA5 axis

To investigate the potential functions and regulatory mechanism of circRSU1 on septic acute lung injury (sepsis-ALI) progression. We used lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells (HPMECs) to establish the cell model of sepsis-ALI in vitro. qRT-PCR and Western blotting were used for the detection of genes and proteins. The migration and tubulogenesis of HPMECs were assessed by transwell, wound healing, and tube formation assays. Inflammatory factors were detected by ELISA analysis. Cell permeability (PA) was determined by transendothelial resistance (TEER) and fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) with transwell assay. The interaction between miR-1224-5p and circRSU1 or ITGA5 (Integrin Subunit Alpha 5) was studied by dual-luciferase reporter and RNA pull-down assays. CircRSU1 expression was decreased after LPS treatment in HPMECs. Functionally, re-expression of circRSU1 in HPMECs could alleviate LPS-induced inflammatory response, the inhibition of cell migration and tube formation and enhancement of cell permeability. Mechanistically, circRSU1 acted as a sponge for miR-1224-5p. LPS treatment enhanced miR-1224-5p expression, and inhibition of miR-1224-5p reversed LPS-evoked HPMEC dysfunction mentioned above. Moreover, miR-1224-5p could abolish the protective effects of circRSU1 on HPMECs. In addition, miR-1224-5p directly targeted ITGA5, and circRSU1 was able to regulate ITGA5 expression via interacting with miR-1224-5p. CircRSU1 could alleviate LPS-induced HPMEC injury by miR-1224-5p/ITGA5 axis, indicating the potential molecular contribution of circRSU1 in sepsis-ALI.

Natural products for gastric carcinoma prevention and treatment: Focus on their antioxidant stress actions in the Correa's cascade

BACKGROUND

Correa's cascade is a pathological process beginning from gastritis to gastric precancerous lesions, and finally to gastric carcinoma (GC). While the pathogenesis of GC remains unclear, oxidative stress plays a prominent role throughout the entire Correa's cascade process. Studies have shown that some natural products (NPs) could halt and even reverse the development of the Correa's cascade by targeting oxidative stress.

METHODS

To review the effects and mechanism by which NPs inhibit the Correa's cascade through targeting oxidative stress, data were collected from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases from initial establishment to April 2023. NPs were classified and summarized by their mechanisms of action.

RESULTS

NPs, such as terpenoid, polyphenols and alkaloids, exert multistep antioxidant stress effects on the Correa's cascade. These effects include preventing gastric mucosal inflammation (stage 1), reversing gastric precancerous lesions (stage 2), and inhibiting gastric carcinoma (stage 3). NPs can directly impact the conversion of gastritis to GC by targeting oxidative stress and modulating signaling pathways involving IL-8, Nrf2, TNF-α, NF-κB, and ROS/MAPK. Among which polyphenols have been studied more and are of high research value.

CONCLUSIONS

NPs display a beneficial multi-step action on the Correa's cascade, and have potential value for clinical application in the prevention and treatment of gastric cancer by regulating the level of oxidative stress.

AI's deep dive into complex pediatric inguinal hernia issues: a challenge to traditional guidelines?

OBJECTIVE

This study utilized ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence program based on large language models, to explore controversial issues in pediatric inguinal hernia surgery and compare its responses with the guidelines of the European Association of Pediatric Surgeons (EUPSA).

METHODS

Six contentious issues raised by EUPSA were submitted to ChatGPT 4.0 for analysis, for which two independent responses were generated for each issue. These generated answers were subsequently compared with systematic reviews and guidelines. To ensure content accuracy and reliability, a content analysis was conducted, and expert evaluations were solicited for validation. Content analysis evaluated the consistency or discrepancy between ChatGPT 4.0's responses and the guidelines. An expert scoring method assess the quality, reliability, and applicability of responses. The TF-IDF model tested the stability and consistency of the two responses.

RESULTS

The responses generated by ChatGPT 4.0 were mostly consistent with the guidelines. However, some differences and contradictions were noted. The average quality score was 3.33, reliability score was 2.75, and applicability score was 3.46 (out of 5). The average similarity between the two responses was 0.72 (out of 1), Content analysis and expert ratings yielded consistent conclusions, enhancing the credibility of our research.

CONCLUSION

ChatGPT can provide valuable responses to clinical questions, but it has limitations and requires further improvement. It is recommended to combine ChatGPT with other reliable data sources to improve clinical practice and decision-making.

Academic clinician frontline-worker wellbeing and resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic experience: Were there gender differences?

Prior research suggests COVID-19 has amplified stress on Academic Clinician Frontline-Workers (ACFW). The aim of this paper is: (1) to better understand the experiences of ACFW during the COVID-19 pandemic including their mental-emotional wellbeing, academic productivity, clinical experiences, and (2) to examine any gender differences. A cross-sectional survey was administered to University of Minnesota/M Health Fairview systems' faculty February-June 2021. Of the 291 respondents, 156 were clinicians, with 91 (58 %) identifying as Frontline-Workers (ACFW). Faculty wellbeing was assessed using validated measures in addition to measures of productivity and sociodemographics. For example, ACFW reported a higher Work-Family Conflict (WFC) scores compared to non-ACFW (26.5 vs. 24.1, p = 0.057) but did not report higher Family-Work Conflict (FWC) scores (17.7 vs. 16.3, p = 0.302). Gender sub-analyses, revealed that women ACFW compared to men ACFW reported higher WFC scores (27.7 vs. 24.1, p = 0.021) and FWC (19.3 vs. 14.3, p = 0.004). Academically, ACFW reported submitting fewer grants and anticipated delays in promotion and tenure due to the COVID-19 (p = 0.035). Results suggest COVID-19 has exacerbated ACFW stress and gender inequities. Reports of anticipated delay in promotion for ACFW may pose a challenge for the long-term academic success of ACFW, especially women ACFW. In addition, women may experience higher FWC and WFC as compared to men. Schools of academic medicine should consider re-evaluating promotion/tenure processes and creating resources to support women ACFW as well as ACFW caregivers.

Berberine: An inspiring resource for the treatment of colorectal diseases

Colorectal cancer is a prevalent malignant tumor with a complex and diverse pathogenesis. In recent years, natural products have shown promising application prospects as sources of anticancer drugs. BBR, a class of benzoquinoline alkaloids extracted from various plants, is widely used in disease treatments owing to its pharmacological activities, including antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, anticancer, and anti-angiogenesis properties. Research has demonstrated that BBR exerts an anti-Salmonella and -Escherichia coli infection effect, attenuating inflammatory reactions by inhibiting harmful bacteria. During the stage of colorectal precancerous lesions, BBR inhibits the activity of cell cyclin by regulating the PI3K/AKT, MAPK, and Wnt signaling pathways, thereby decelerating the cell cycle progression of polyp or adenoma cells. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of BBR on colorectal cancer primarily occurs through the regulation of the cancer cell cycle, anti-angiogenesis, gut microbiota, and antioxidant pathways. The specific involved pathways include the MPK/ERK, NF-kB, and EGFR signaling pathways, encompassing the regulation of Bcl-2 family proteins, vascular endothelial growth factor, and superoxide dismutase. This study reviews and summarizes, for the first time, the specific mechanisms of action of BBR in the carcinogenesis process of colorectal cancer, providing novel insights for its clinical application in intestinal diseases.

Identification and Automated Delineation of Radioresistant Biological Tumor Volume in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging Radiomics

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Widespread use of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has improved the tumor control rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, nearly 20% of the patients with local-advanced NPC would relapse after precise irradiation and 80% of the recurrent lesions occur within the high dose field, suggesting that there are radiation-resistant cancer cell subsets within the tumor. In this context, identification and contouring of radiation resistance region of NPC for dose escalation at primary IMRT could be advantageous. In this work, we proposed a two-step radiomics workflow to predict local relapse and the recurrent region of NPC before primary IMRT.

MATERIALS/METHODS

In this single-center, retrospective study, pre-treatment magnetic resonance (MR) sequences of T1-weighted imaging (T1-w) and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging (CET1-w) were collected from 800 patients of newly diagnosed and non-metastatic NPC between April 2009 and December 2015. The primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) of all patients and the actual recurrent lesion (GTVr) of patients who suffered from local recurrence were manually contoured for further analysis. A two-step complete radiomics workflow was designed to predict tumor recurrence and segment the region. First, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was utilized for radiomics features selection of GTVp and support vector machine (SVM) was adopted to predict the recurrence. If the model predicts a recurrence, then the workflow utilizes an improved 3D U-Net to segment the recurrent region. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of tumor recurrence prediction, and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the consistence between the actual and predicted GTVr.

RESULTS

Of 800 NPC patients, 95 (11.9%) patients developed in-field local recurrence. For recurrence risk prediction, the SVM ensemble model (T1-w+CET1-w) was selected for further application with higher sensitivity. The average ROC-AUC, specificity, sensitivity of the SVM ensemble model in a 5-fold cross-validation and in the independent test set of 160 patients were 0.922, 0.922, 0.777 and 0.928, 0.915, 0.737, respectively. Moreover, for recurrent region segmentation, the multi-modality (T1-w+CET1-w) model was superior to the single-modality (T1-w or CET1-w) model. In an independent test set of 15 patients, the DSC, sensitivity and 95% Hausdorff Distance between actual and predicted GTVr was 0.549±0.176, 0.696±0.118 and 9.813±4.788 which was superior to 0.444±0.188, 0.497±0.218 and 12.047±5.361 of original 3D U-Net.

CONCLUSION

The proposed two-step radiomics workflow showed a good performance in predicting tumor recurrence of NPC. The predicted location of the recurrence lesion was all accurate, but there was still a certain difference between the volume of the automated delineated and actual GTVr, which needed to be further optimized to be used as biological tumor volume.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Automated Contouring of Cervical Lymph Nodes and Clinical Target Volumes for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Deep Learning and Experience Constraints

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Application of artificial intelligence (AI) for automated contouring of tumor volumes and organs at risk (OARs) for radiotherapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) leads to improved contouring accuracy and efficiency. However, few studies have involved the automated contouring of gross tumor volume of cervical lymph nodes (GTVn) and clinical target volumes (CTVs). In this work, we proposed an AI automated contouring tool for GTVn and CTVs for radiotherapy of NPC on the plain scans of planning compute tomography (CT).

MATERIALS/METHODS

In this retrospective study, plain scan datasets of planning CT covering the nasopharynx and neck from 139 patients with NPC between March 2022 and December 2022 were collected and divided into training, validation, and testing cohorts of 95, 24, and 20 patients, respectively. Ground truth contours of primary gross tumor volume (GTVp), GTVn (divided into GTVn_L in left neck and GTVn_R in right neck), CTVs (including high risk CTV1 contains GTVp and low risk CTV2 contains GTVp and cervical nodal levels) and OARs were delineated and were defined by consensus of two experts. We first proposed a three-dimensional (3D) U-net using GTVp and OARs as experience constrains to guide the automated delineation of GTVn and CTVs. The average Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and average surface distance (ASD) were used to quantify the performance of the AI tool. Next, five prospective patients were enrolled for clinical evaluation of our AI tool. DSC between automated contours and radiation oncologist-revised contours and time consuming of the revision were record.

RESULTS

Clinical characteristics of 139 retrospective and 5 prospective patients are list in Table 1. In the independent testing set of 20 patients, our AI tool showed high performance in GTVn and CTVs contouring when compared with the ground truth contours. The mean DSC were 0.73 ± 0.07, 0.74 ± 0.05, 0.93 ± 0.03, and 0.88 ± 0.03, and the mean ASD were 1.01 ± 0.43 mm, 1.14 ± 0.61 mm, 0.51 ± 0.13 mm, 1.17 ± 0.43 mm for GTVn_L, GTVn_R, CTV1 and CTV2, respectively. In the five prospective patients, mean DSC were 0.74 ± 0.07, 0.74 ± 0.10, 0.95 ± 0.01 and 0.89 ± 0.04, respectively. The median time consuming for GTVn and CTVs revision was 2minutes and 10 seconds (range, 1 minutes to 3 minutes).

CONCLUSION

The proposed AI tool integrating clinical experience as constrains showed high accuracy for contouring GTVn and CTVs of NPC. With the assistance of AI contours, contouring efficiency could be probably increased, which is promising in online adaptive radiotherapy of NPC.

The axial and sagittal CT values of the 7th thoracic vertebrae in screening for osteoporosis and osteopenia

AIM

To evaluate the difference in computed tomography (CT) attenuation value of different planes of the 7th thoracic vertebra and investigate the efficacy of axial and sagittal vertebral CT measurements in predicting osteoporosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent routine chest CT and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) within 1 month were included in this retrospective study. The CT attenuation values of different planes were compared. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were used to analyse the difference of each plane in the diagnosis of osteoporosis.

RESULTS

The study included 1,338 patients (mean age of 61.9±11.9; 54% female). The CT attenuation values decreased successively in the normal group, osteopenia group, and osteoporosis group. The paired t-test results showed that the mid-axial measurements were greater than mid-sagittal measurements, with a mean difference of 9 HU, the difference was statistically significant (p<0.001, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.8-10.1). For each one-unit reduction in mid-sagittal CT attenuation value, the risk of osteopenia or osteoporosis increased by 3.6%. To distinguish osteoporosis from non-osteoporosis (osteopenia + normal), the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 52.4% at the mid-sagittal threshold of 113.7 HU.

CONCLUSIONS

The CT attenuation values of mid-sagittal plane have higher diagnostic efficacy than axial planes in predicting osteoporosis. For patients with a sagittal CT attenuation value of <113.7 HU in the T7, further DXA examination is warranted.

Mercury intoxication disrupts tonic signaling in B cells, and may promote autoimmunity due to abnormal phosphorylation of STIM-1 and other autoimmunity risk associated phosphoproteins involved in BCR signaling

Epidemiological studies link exposure to mercury with autoimmune disease. Unfortunately, in spite of considerable effort, no generally accepted mechanistic understanding of how mercury functions with respect to the etiology of autoimmune disease is currently available. Nevertheless, autoimmune disease often arises because of defective B cell signaling. Because B cell signaling is dependent on phosphorylation cascades, in this report, we have focused on how mercury intoxication alters phosphorylation of B cell proteins in antigen-non stimulated (tonic) mouse (BALB/c) splenic B cells. Specifically, we utilized mass spectrometric techniques to conduct a comprehensive unbiased global analysis of the effect of inorganic mercury (Hg2+) on the entire B cell phosphoproteome. We found that the effects were pleotropic in the sense that large numbers of pathways were impacted. However, confirming our earlier work, we found that the B cell signaling pathway stood out from the rest, in that phosphoproteins which had sites which were affected by Hg2+, exhibited a much higher degree of connectivity, than components of other pathways. Further analysis showed that many of these BCR pathway proteins had been previously linked to autoimmune disease. Finally, dose response analysis of these BCR pathway proteins showed STIM1_S575, and NFAT2_S259 are the two most Hg2+ sensitive of these sites. Because STIM1_S575 controls the ability of STIM1 to regulate internal Ca2+, we speculate that STIM1 may be the initial point of disruption, where Hg2+ interferes with B cell signaling leading to systemic autoimmunity, with the molecular effects pleiotropically propagated throughout the cell by virtue of Ca2+ dysregulation.

Characterization and genomic analysis of an oceanic cyanophage infecting marine Synechococcus reveal a novel genus

Cyanophages play a crucial role in the biogeochemical cycles of aquatic ecosystems by affecting the population dynamics and community structure of cyanobacteria. In this study, a novel cyanophage, Nanhaivirus ms29, that infects Synechococcus sp. MW02 was isolated from the ocean basin in the South China Sea. It was identified as a T4-like phage using transmission electron microscopy. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that this cyanophage is distinct from other known T4-like cyanophage, belonging to a novel genus named Nanhaivirus within the family Kyanoviridae, according to the most recent classification proposed by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV). The genome of this novel cyanophage is composed of 178,866 bp of double-stranded DNA with a G + C content of 42.5%. It contains 217 potential open reading frames (ORFs) and 6 tRNAs. As many as 30 auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) were identified in the genome, which related to photosynthesis, carbon metabolism, nutrient uptake and stress tolerance, possibly reflecting a genomic adaption to the oligotrophic environment. Read-mapping analysis showed that Nanhaivirus ms29 mainly distributed in temperate and tropical epipelagic waters. This study enriches of the virus gene database of cyanophages and provides valuable insights into the phylogeny of cyanophages and their interactions with their hosts.

Solar-Powered Interfacial Evaporation and Deicing Based on a 3D-Printed Multiscale Hierarchical Design

Solar-powered interfacial heating has emerged as a sustainable technology for hybrid applications with minimal carbon footprints. Aerogels, hydrogels, and sponges/foams are the main building blocks for state-of-the-art photothermal materials. However, these conventional three-dimensional (3D) structures and related fabrication technologies intrinsically fail to maximize important performance-enhancing strategies and this technology still faces several performance roadblocks. Herein, monolithic, self-standing, and durable aerogel matrices are developed based on composite photothermal inks and ink-extrusion 3D printing, delivering all-in-one interfacial steam generators (SGs). Rapid prototyping of multiscale hierarchical structures synergistically reduce the energy demand for evaporation, expand actual evaporation areas, generate massive environmental energy input, and improve mass flows. Under 1 sun, high water evaporation rates of 3.74 kg m-2 h-1 in calm air and 25.3 kg m-2 h-1 at a gentle breeze of 2 m s-1 are achieved, ranking among the best-performing solar-powered interfacial SGs. 3D-printed microchannels and hydrophobic modification deliver an icephobic surface of the aerogels, leading to self-propelled and rapid removal of ice droplets. This work shines light on rational fabrication of hierarchical photothermal materials, not merely breaking through the constraints of solar-powered interfacial evaporation and clean water production, but also discovering new functions for photothermal interfacial deicing.

[Results of combined newborn hearing and deafness gene screening in Yuncheng area of Shanxi Province]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the clinical significance of combined newborn hearing and deafness gene screening in Yuncheng area of Shanxi Province.

METHODS

Results of audiological examinations, including transient evoked otoacoustic emission and automatic discriminative auditory brainstem evoked potentials, for 6 723 newborns born in Yuncheng area from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, were retrospectively analyzed. Those who failed one of the tests were considered to have failed the examination. A deafness-related gene testing kit was used to detect 15 hot spot variants of common deafness-associated genes in China including GJB2, SLC26A4, GJB3, and mtDNA12S rRNA. Neonates who had passed the audiological examinations and those who had not were compared using a chi-square test.

RESULTS

Among the 6 723 neonates, 363 (5.40%) were found to carry variants. These have included 166 cases (2.47%) with GJB2 gene variants, 136 cases (2.03%) with SLC26A4 gene variants, 26 cases (0.39%) with mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene variants, and 33 cases (0.49%) with GJB3 gene variants. Among the 6 723 neonates, 267 had failed initial hearing screening, among which 244 had accepted a re-examination, for which 14 cases (5.73%) had failed again. This has yielded an approximate prevalence of hearing disorder of 0.21% (14/6 723). Among 230 newborns who had passed the re-examination, 10 (4.34%) were found to have carried a variant. By contrast, 4 out of the 14 neonates (28.57%) who had failed the re-examination had carried a variant, and there was a significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Genetic screening can provide an effective supplement to newborn hearing screening, and the combined screening can provide a best model for the prevention of hearing loss, which can enable early detection of deafness risks, targeted prevention measures, and genetic counseling to provide accurate prognosis for the newborns.

Atmospheric remote sensing for anthropogenic methane emissions: Applications and research opportunities

Methane is the second most significant greenhouse gas (GHG) only after carbon dioxide. Human activities substantially increase the atmospheric methane concentration globally, but little is known about the distribution and characteristics of anthropogenic methane emissions. Remote sensing approaches can identify, geolocate, and quantify near-surface methane emissions. This literature review summarizes the devices, methods, implementations, and potential research opportunities for atmospheric remote sensing of anthropogenic methane emissions. Specifically, this literature review has identified that methane emissions are primarily generated from three key sectors and one key area: the energy sector, the waste sector, the agriculture sector, and the general urban area. Regional and point source emission quantifications are two major study challenges. This review concludes that different sectors have different emission patterns, and therefore, proper remote sensing instruments and platforms might be chosen according to different study tasks. Among the paper reviewed, the energy sector is the most well-studied, while the emissions in the waste sector, the agriculture sector, and the urban areas are less clear. In the future, new methane observation satellites and portable remote sensing instruments provide opportunities to improve understanding of methane emissions. Moreover, the synergistic applications among several different remote sensing instruments and cooperation between top-down and bottom-up measurements can mitigate the limitation of each individual instrument and can achieve better monitoring performance.

A comprehensive health effects assessment of the use of sanitizers and disinfectants during COVID-19 pandemic: a global survey

COVID-19 has affected all aspects of human life so far. From the outset of the pandemic, preventing the spread of COVID-19 through the observance of health protocols, especially the use of sanitizers and disinfectants was given more attention. Despite the effectiveness of disinfection chemicals in controlling and preventing COVID-19, there are critical concerns about their adverse effects on human health. This study aims to assess the health effects of sanitizers and disinfectants on a global scale. A total of 91,056 participants from 154 countries participated in this cross-sectional study. Information on the use of sanitizers and disinfectants and health was collected using an electronic questionnaire, which was translated into 26 languages via web-based platforms. The findings of this study suggest that detergents, alcohol-based substances, and chlorinated compounds emerged as the most prevalent chemical agents compared to other sanitizers and disinfectants examined. Most frequently reported health issues include skin effects and respiratory effects. The Chi-square test showed a significant association between chlorinated compounds (sodium hypochlorite and per-chlorine) with all possible health effects under investigation (p-value <0.001). Examination of risk factors based on multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that alcohols and alcohols-based materials were associated with skin effects (OR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.87-2.09), per-chlorine was associated with eye effects (OR, 1.83; 95%CI, 1.74-1.93), and highly likely with itching and throat irritation (OR, 2.00; 95%CI, 1.90-2.11). Furthermore, formaldehyde was associated with a higher prevalence of neurological effects (OR, 2.17; 95%CI, 1.92-2.44). Furthermore, formaldehyde was associated with a higher prevalence of neurological effects (OR, 2.17; 95%CI, 1.92-2.44). The use of sodium hypochlorite and per-chlorine also had a high chance of having respiratory effects. The findings of the current study suggest that health authorities need to implement more awareness programs about the side effects of using sanitizers and disinfectants during viral epidemics especially when they are used or overused.

Characterization and genomic analysis of a novel Synechococcus phage S-H9-2 belonging to Bristolvirus genus isolated from the Yellow Sea

Cyanophages are known to influence the population dynamics and community structure of cyanobacteria and thus play an important role in biogeochemical cycles in aquatic ecosystems. In this study, a novel Synechococcus phage S-H9-2 infecting Synechococcus sp. WH 8102 was isolated from the coastal water of the Yellow Sea. Synechococcus phage S-H9-2 contains a 187,320 bp genome of double-stranded DNA with a G + C content of 40.3%, 202 potential open reading frames (ORFs), and 15 tRNAs. Phylogenetic analysis and nucleotide-based intergenomic similarity suggest that Synechococcus phage S-H9-2 belongs to the Bristolvirus genus under the family Kyanoviridae. Homologs of the S-H9-2 open reading frame can be found in a variety of marine environments, as shown by the results of mapping the genome sequence of S-H9-2 to the Global Ocean Viromes 2.0 dataset. The presence of auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) related to photosynthesis, carbon metabolism, and phosphorus assimilation, as well as phylogenetic relationships based on complete genome sequences, reflect the mechanism of phage-host interaction and host-specific strategies for adaptation to environmental conditions. This study enriches the current genomic database of cyanophage and contributed to our understanding of the virus-host interactions and their adaption to the environment.

Discovery of an Abundant Viral Genus in Polar Regions through the Isolation and Genomic Characterization of a New Virus against Oceanospirillaceae

The marine bacterial family Oceanospirillaceae, is well-known for its ability to degrade hydrocarbons and for its close association with algal blooms. However, only a few Oceanospirillaceae-infecting phages have been reported thus far. Here, we report on a novel Oceanospirillum phage, namely, vB_OsaM_PD0307, which has a 44,421 bp linear dsDNA genome and is the first myovirus infecting Oceanospirillaceae. A genomic analysis demonstrated that vB_OsaM_PD0307 is a variant of current phage isolates from the NCBI data set but that it has similar genomic features to two high-quality, uncultured viral genomes identified from marine metagenomes. Hence, we propose that vB_OsaM_PD0307 can be classified as the type phage of a new genus, designated Oceanospimyovirus. Additionally, metagenomic read mapping results have further shown that Oceanospimyovirus species are widespread in the global ocean, display distinct biogeographic distributions, and are abundant in polar regions. In summary, our findings expand the current understanding of the genomic characteristics, phylogenetic diversity, and distribution of Oceanospimyovirus phages. IMPORTANCE Oceanospirillum phage vB_OsaM_PD0307 is the first myovirus found to infect Oceanospirillaceae, and it represents a novel abundant viral genus in polar regions. This study provides insights into the genomic, phylogenetic, and ecological characteristics of the new viral genus, namely Oceanospimyovirus.

Chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5/NO2 and respiratory health in school children: A prospective cohort study in Hong Kong

Despite increasing concerns about the detrimental effects of air pollution on respiratory health, limited evidence is available on these effects in the Hong Kong population, especially in children. In this prospective cohort study between 2012 and 2017, we aimed to investigate the associations between exposure to air pollution (concentrations of fine particulate matter [PM_2.5] and nitrogen dioxide [NO₂]) and respiratory health (lung function parameters and respiratory diseases and symptoms) in schoolchildren. We recruited 5612 schoolchildren aged 6-16 years in Hong Kong. We estimated the annual average concentrations of ambient PM_2.5 and NO₂ at each participant's address using spatiotemporal models. We conducted spirometry tests on all participants to measure their lung function parameters and used a self-administered questionnaire to collect information on their respiratory diseases and symptoms and a wide range of covariates. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the associations between exposure to air pollution and lung function. Mixed-effects logistic regression models with random effects were used to investigate the associations of exposure to air pollution with respiratory diseases and symptoms. In all of the participants, every 5-μg/m³ increase in the ambient PM_2.5 concentration was associated with changes of - 13.90 ml (95 % confidence interval [CI]: -23.65 ml, -4.10 ml), - 4.20 ml (-15.60 ml, 7.15 ml), 27.20 ml/s (-3.95 ml/s, 58.35 ml/s), and - 19.80 ml/s (-38.35 ml/s, -1.25 ml/s) in forced expiratory volume in 1 s, forced vital capacity, peak expiratory flow, and maximal mid-expiratory flow, respectively. The corresponding lung function estimates for every 5-μg/m³ increase in the ambient NO₂ concentration were - 2.70 ml (-6.05 ml, 0.60 ml), - 1.40 ml (-5.40 ml, 2.60 ml), - 6.60 ml/s (-19.75 ml/s, 6.55 ml/s), and - 3.05 ml/s (-11.10 ml/s, 5.00 ml/s), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between PM_2.5/NO₂ exposure and most respiratory diseases and symptoms. Stratified analyses by sex and age showed that the associations between exposure to air pollution and lung function parameters were stronger in male participants and older participants (11-14 year old group) than in female participants and younger participants (6-10 year old group), respectively. Our results suggest that chronic exposure to air pollution is detrimental to the respiratory health of schoolchildren, especially that of older boys. Our findings reinforce the importance of air pollution mitigation to protect schoolchildren's respiratory health.

Differential regulation of H3K9/H3K14 acetylation by small molecules drives neuron-fate-induction of glioma cell

Differentiation therapy using small molecules is a promising strategy for improving the prognosis of glioblastoma (GBM). Histone acetylation plays an important role in cell fate determination. Nevertheless, whether histone acetylation in specific sites determines GBM cells fate remains to be explored. Through screening from a 349 small molecule-library, we identified that histone deacetylase inhibitor (HDACi) MS-275 synergized with 8-CPT-cAMP was able to transdifferentiate U87MG GBM cells into neuron-like cells, which were characterized by cell cycle arrest, rich neuron biomarkers, and typical neuron electrophysiology. Intriguingly, acetylation tags of histone 3 at lysine 9 (H3K9ac) were decreased in the promoter of multiple oncogenes and cell cycle genes, while ones of H3K9ac and histone 3 at lysine 14 (H3K14ac) were increased in the promoter of neuron-specific genes. We then compiled a list of genes controlled by H3K9ac and H3K14ac, and proved that it is a good predictive power for pathologic grading and survival prediction. Moreover, cAMP agonist combined with HDACi also induced glioma stem cells (GSCs) to differentiate into neuron-like cells through the regulation of H3K9ac/K14ac, indicating that combined induction has the potential for recurrence-preventive application. Furthermore, the combination of cAMP activator plus HDACi significantly repressed the tumor growth in a subcutaneous GSC-derived tumor model, and temozolomide cooperated with the differentiation-inducing combination to prolong the survival in an orthotopic GSC-derived tumor model. These findings highlight epigenetic reprogramming through H3K9ac and H3K14ac as a novel approach for driving neuron-fate-induction of GBM cells.

Hygroscopic and Photothermal All-Polymer Foams for Efficient Atmospheric Water Harvesting, Passive Humidity Management, and Protective Packaging

Environmental humidity and thermal control are of primary importance for fighting global warming, growing energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. Sorption-based atmospheric water harvesting is an emerging technology with great potential in clean water production and passive cooling applications. However, sorption-based humidity management and their hybrid applications are limited due to the lack of energywise designs of hygroscopic materials and devices. Herein, all polymeric 3D foams are developed and evaluated as hygroscopic and photothermal materials. The gas-foaming method generates closed-cell structures with interconnected hydrophilic networks and wrinkled surfaces, expanding hygroscopic, photothermal, and evaporating areas of the 3D foams. These unique advantages lead to efficient water vapor sorption in a wide broad relative humidity (RH) range of 50-90% and efficient water release in a wide solar intensity (0.4-1 sun) and temperature range (27-80 °C). The reversible moisture sorption/release in 50 adsorption/desorption cycles highlights the excellent durability of the 3D foams compared to conventional inorganic desiccants. The 3D foams disclose passive and efficient apparent temperature regulation in warm and humid environments. Moreover, the use of the 3D foams as loose fill for fruit preservation and packaging is demonstrated for the first time by taking the merit of the 3D foams' moisture-absorbing, quick-drying, cushioning, and thermal-insulating properties. This work presents an integrated design of polymeric desiccants and scaffolds, not merely delivering stable water adsorption/desorption but also discovering innovative hybrid applications in humidity management and protective packaging.

[Correlation between gene polymorphisms of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors and their ligands and Graves' disease]

Objective: To explore the relationship between gene polymorphism of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) and its ligand-specific human leukocyte antigen C (HLA-C) and Graves' disease (GD). Methods: Case-control study. A total of 118 unrelated GD patients (GD group) admitted to Shandong Provincial Hospital from January 2011 to December 2017 and 108 age-and sex-matched healthy controls (healthy control group) were included. The KIR genotype and its ligand HLA-C allele were detected by polymerase chain reaction sequence-specific primers (PCR-SSP). The distribution of KIR/HLA-C gene combination in GD patients and control population was analyzed to explore its association with the occurrence of GD. Results: In GD group, there were 29 males and 89 females, aged (38±14) years. In the healthy control group, there were 28 males and 80 females, aged (37±13) years. Compared with the healthy control group, the occurrence frequency of HLA-Cw01 was higher in GD group[36.4%(43/118) vs 18.5%(20/108), P=0.003], and the occurrence frequency of HLA-Cw03 and HLA-Cw06 was lower in GD group[11.9%(14/118) vs 39.8%(43/108), P<0.001; 9.3%(11/118) vs 18.5%(20/108), P=0.045]. The frequency of KIR2DL1/HLA-C2 gene combination in GD group was lower than that in control group [17.8%(21/118) vs 34.3%(37/108), P=0.005]. Logistic regression analysis showed that KIR2DL1/HLA-C2 gene combination was a protective factor for GD occurrence (OR=0.308, 95%CI: 0.126-0.752, P=0.010). Conclusions: The polymorphism of KIR/HLA-C gene is related to GD. The low expression of KIR2DL1/HLA-C2 in GD patients may be a protective factor for GD.

Targeting lipid metabolism with natural products: A novel strategy for gastrointestinal cancer therapy

Gastrointestinal cancer (GIC), including gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, is a common malignant tumor originating from gastrointestinal epithelial cells. Although the pathogenesis of GIC remains unclear, aberrant lipid metabolism has emerged as a hallmark of cancer. Several enzymes, proteins, and transcription factors are involved in lipid metabolism reprogramming in GIC, and their abnormal expression can promote lipid synthesis and accumulation of lipid droplets through numerous mechanisms, thereby affecting the growth, proliferation, and metastasis of GIC cells. Studies show that some natural compounds, including flavonoids, alkaloids, and saponins, can inhibit the de novo synthesis of lipids in GIC, reduce the level of lipid accumulation, and subsequently, inhibit the occurrence and development of GIC by regulating Sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1 (SREBP-1), adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK), 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase/Akt and the mammalian target of rapamycin PI3K/Akt/mTOR, amongst other targets and pathways. Therefore, targeting tumor lipid metabolism is the focus of anti-gastrointestinal tumor therapy. Although most natural products require further high-quality studies to firmly establish their clinical efficacy, we review the potential of natural products in the treatment of GIC and summarize the application prospect of lipid metabolism as a new target for the treatment of GIC, hoping to provide a reference for drug development for gastrointestinal tumors.

Assembly and Network Stability of Planktonic Microorganisms under the Influence of Salinity Gradient: an Arctic Case Study from the Lena River Estuary to the Laptev Sea

The diversity and primary productivity in the Arctic ecosystem are rapidly changing due to global warming. Microorganisms play a vital role in biogeochemical cycling. However, the diversity of planktonic microorganism communities in the Laptev Sea, one of the most important marginal seas of the Western Arctic Ocean, have not been studied sufficiently in depth. The diversity and community structure of the planktonic microorganisms in the surface water were investigated at 20 stations on the Lena River flowing into the Laptev Sea. Multivariate statistical analyses demonstrated clear spatial patterns in the α diversity and community structure for microorganisms under different salinity levels. Co-occurrence networks of microbial communities revealed that spatial variation promoted differentiation of the characteristics and stability of microbial networks in the Laptev Sea. Contrary to expectations, abundant taxa were found to not have a large influence on the stability and resilience of microbial interactions in the region. On the contrary, less-abundant taxa were found to have far greater influence. The stability and resilience of the prokaryotic and microeukaryotic networks in the Lena River estuary and the continental shelf provided valuable insights into the impact of freshwater and land inflow disturbances on microbial assemblage. Overall, these results enhance our understanding of the composition of microbial communities and provide insights into how spatial changes of abundant versus rare species alter the nature and stability of microbial networks from the Lena River estuary to the Laptev Sea. In addition, this study explored microbial interactions and their ability to resist future disturbances. IMPORTANCE The regime of the Laptev Sea depends closely on the runoff of the Lena River. Microorganisms are essential components of aquatic food webs and play a significant role in polar ecosystems. In this study, we provided a basic microbial data set as well as new insights into the microbial networks from the Lena River estuary to the Laptev Sea, while exploring their potential to resist future disturbances. A comprehensive and systematic study of the community structure and function of the planktonic microorganisms in the Laptev Sea would greatly enhance our understanding of how polar microbial communities respond to the salinity gradient under climate warming.

Isolated systolic or diastolic hypertension and mortality risk in young adults using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known regarding the health effects of different hypertension phenotypes including isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and systolic and diastolic hypertension (SDH) defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline among young adults. We conducted this longitudinal study using time-varying analyses to evaluate the relationship between cardiovascular/all-natural mortality risk and different hypertension phenotypes in young adults.

METHODS

A total of 284 597 young adults (aged 18-39 years) were recruited between 1996 and 2016. Participants were classified into eight mutually exclusive BP groups: normal blood pressure (BP), elevated BP, stage 1 IDH, stage 1 ISH, stage 1 SDH, stage 2 IDH, stage 2 ISH, and stage 2 SDH. The outcomes were cardiovascular and all-natural mortality.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 15.8 years, 2341 all-natural deaths with 442 cardiovascular deaths were observed. When compared with individuals with normal BP, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of cardiovascular mortality was 1.39 (1.01-1.93) for elevated BP, 2.00 (1.45-2.77) for stage 1 IDH, 1.66 (1.08-2.56) for stage 1 ISH, 3.08 (2.13-4.45) for stage 1 SDH, 2.85 (1.76-4.62) for stage 2 IDH, 4.30 (2.96-6.25) for stage 2 ISH, and 6.93 (4.99-9.61) for stage 2 SDH, respectively. In consideration to all-natural mortality, similar results were observed for stage 1 SDH, stage 2 ISH, and stage 2 SDH; but not for elevated BP, stage 1 IDH, stage 1 ISH, and stage 2 IDH.

CONCLUSION

Young adults with stage 1 or stage 2 ISH, IDH, and SDH are at increased risk of cardiovascular death than those with normal BP. Regardless of BP stage, SDH was associated with a higher cardiovascular mortality risk than IDH and ISH.

Cardiovascular Mortality, Habitual Exercise, and Particulate Matter 2.5 Exposure: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Habitual exercise may amplify the respiratory uptake of air pollutants in the lung, exacerbating the adverse effects of air pollution. However, it is unclear whether this can reduce the health benefits of habitual exercise (referred to as leisure-time exercise). Thus, the combined effects of habitual exercise and chronic exposure to ambient fine particulate matter 2.5 on cardiovascular mortality were examined among adults in Taiwan.

METHODS

A total of 384,128 adults were recruited between 2001 and 2016 and followed up to May 31, 2019. Participants' vital status was obtained by matching their unique identification numbers with records of cardiovascular death in the National Death Registry of Taiwan. A time-varying Cox regression model was used to analyze the data. Analyses were conducted in 2021.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular death risks were inversely associated with habitual exercise and positively associated with chronic exposure to particulate matter 2.5. The beneficial effects of habitual exercise on cardiovascular mortality were not modified by chronic exposure to particulate matter 2.5. Inactive participants with high particulate matter 2.5 exposure exhibited a 123% higher risk of cardiovascular death than high-exercise-group participants exposed to low levels of particulate matter 2.5 (95% CI=89, 163).

CONCLUSIONS

High level of habitual exercise combined with low exposure level of ambient particulate matter 2.5 is associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular death. A higher level of habitual exercise is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular death at all levels of particulate matter 2.5 exposure studied. The results indicate that habitual exercise is a safe health promotion strategy even for people residing in relatively polluted regions.

Temporal trend of population structure, burden of diseases, healthcare resources and expenditure in China, 2000-2019

OBJECTIVES

To explore the evolutionary trend of population structure, disease burden, healthcare resources and expenditure in China, and to identify key domains that are most in need of intervention.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis.

DATA SOURCE

Population and healthcare data from China Statistical Yearbook, and disease burden attributable to causes and risk factors from the Global Burden of Diseases between 2000 and 2019.

MEASURES AND METHODS

We used the Joinpoint Regression Program to measure trends in population composition, population change, dependency ratio, healthcare institution, personnel, expenditure and disease burden from 2000 to 2019.

RESULTS

Regarding the population in China between 2000 and 2019, a decreasing trend was observed among youth aged 0-14 years (average annual percent change (AAPC): -1.17), a slow rising trend was observed among individuals aged 15-64 years (AAPC: 1.10) and a rapidly increasing trend was observed among individuals older than 65 years (AAPC: 3.67). Astonishing increasing trends in healthcare institutions (AAPC: 3.97), medical personnel (AAPC: 3.26) and healthcare expenditures (AAPC: 15.28) were also observed. Among individuals younger than 70 years, neoplasms (AAPC: 0.54) and cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: 0.67) remained among the top three causes, while tobacco (AAPC: 0.22) remained a top three risk factor. However, while musculoskeletal disorders (AAPC: 1.88) were not a top three cause in 2000, they are a top three cause in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Comprehensive age/cause/risk factor-specific strategies are key to reconcile the tension among the triad of population ageing, disease burden and healthcare expenditure. The disease burden from cardiometabolic diseases, neoplasms and musculoskeletal disorders was identified as key domains that require intervention to reduce an increasing disease burden among individuals currently older than 70 years, as well as those approaching this age group.

Life-course exposure to ambient fine particulate matter and hypertension in adulthood: a longitudinal cohort study

PM_2.5-hypertension association were well documented in adults, while the effects of life-course exposure to PM_2.5 on adulthood hypertension remained unclear. This study aimed to investigate the associations between life-course exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and incident hypertension in adulthood in Asia. We included 4272 participants with 17,814 medical visits from two open cohorts in Taiwan and Hong Kong between 2000 and 2018. We used a satellite-based model to assess 2-year average PM_2.5 exposure at a resolution of 1 km². A linear mixed model was used to examine the association with blood pressure. A Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was used to examine the overall association with the development of hypertension in adulthood. Life-course mixed models were used to examine the effects of PM_2.5 exposure at different life stages on blood pressure and hypertension. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, the overall risk of adulthood hypertension increased by 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8-80%). The health effects of PM_2.5 exposure at different life-stages on incident hypertension were generally independent of each other. In critical model, the risk of developing hypertension increased 23%, 27%, and 55% for each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 exposure during school age, adolescence, and adulthood, respectively. Similar associations were found between life-course PM_2.5 exposure and blood pressure. Association between PM_2.5 and adulthood hypertension can be traced back to childhood. Our study suggests that life-course control of air pollution exposure should be implemented to alleviate the huge burden of adulthood hypertension.

Novel investigations in retinoic-acid-induced cleft palate about the gut microbiome of pregnant mice

Introduction

Cleft palate (CP) is one of the most common congenital birth defects in the craniofacial region, retinoic acid (RA) gavage is the most common method for inducing cleft palate model. Although several mechanisms have been proposed to illuminate RA-induced cleft palate during embryonic development, these findings are far from enough. Many efforts remain to be devoted to studying the etiology and pathogenesis of cleft palate. Recent research is gradually shifting the focus to the effect of retinoic acid on gut microbiota. However, few reports focus on the relationship between the occurrence of CP in embryos and gut microbiota.

Methods

In our research, we used RA to induce cleft palate model for E10.5 the feces of 5 RA-treated pregnant mice and 5 control pregnant mice were respectively metagenomics analysis.

Results

Compared with the control group, Lactobacillus in the gut microbiome the RA group was significantly increased. GO, KEGG and CAZy analysis of differentially unigenes demonstrated the most abundant metabolic pathway in different groups, lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis, and histidine metabolism.

Discussion

Our findings indicated that changes in the maternal gut microbiome palatal development, which might be related to changes in Lactobacillus and These results provide a new direction in the pathogenesis of CP induced by RA.

What makes helpful online mental health information? Empirical evidence on the effects of information quality and responders’ effort

Although online health communities are popular in supporting mental health, factors leading to the helpfulness of mental health information are still under-investigated. Based on the elaboration likelihood model and motivation theory, we incorporate two types of health information-related constructs, i.e., information quality (central route) and responders’ effort (peripheral route), and adopt reputation as an extrinsic motivation to build our model. We crawl data from a Chinese online mental health community and extract 11 key variables, and then analyze the model with negative binomial regression. The empirical results indicate that the effect of the length of health information on its helpfulness votes is positively significant, while the effect of readability of health information on its helpfulness votes is relatively negative. In terms of responders’ effort, both the timelines of the response and interactive feedback have a significant positive impact on helpfulness of health information votes, while these effects are negatively moderated by the online reputation of responders. This study contributes to the literature on information evaluation mechanisms in online health communities.

Multi-pollutant air pollution and renal health in Asian children and adolescents: An 18-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the effects of multi-pollutant air pollution on renal health, especially in children and adolescents. This study investigated the association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and renal health in Asian children and adolescents.

METHODS

This study included 10,942 children and adolescents from Taiwan and Hong Kong between 2000 and 2017. PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ concentrations were estimated using satellite-based spatiotemporal regression models. Two-year average concentrations, those of the year of visit and the preceding year, were used. Linear mixed models were used to examine the association between air pollution and yearly changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to examine the association between air pollution and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

RESULTS

Median age of the participants was 19 years (range: 2-25). The overall average concentration of PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ was 26.7 μg/m³, 44.1 μg/m³ and 51.1 μg/m³, respectively. The mean yearly change in eGFR was 0.37 μL/min/1.73 m² and the incidence rate of CKD was 6.8 per 1,000 person-years. In single-pollutant models, each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with a 0.45 μL/min/1.73 m² [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28-0.63] reduction in the yearly increase in eGFR and 53% [hazard ratio (HR): 1.53 (95%CI: 1.07-2.2)] greater risk of incident CKD. Each 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ was associated with a 7% [HR (95%CI): 1.07 (1.00-1.15)] higher risk of incident CKD, while an equivalent increase in O₃ was associated with a 19% [HR (95%CI): 0.81 (0.67-0.98)] lower risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and NO₂ was associated with a slower growth of eGFR and a higher risk of incident CKD in children and adolescents. Our findings suggest that air pollution control in early life is imperative to improve lifelong renal health and alleviate the CKD burden.

Photothermal Aerogel Beads Based on Polysaccharides: Controlled Fabrication and Hybrid Applications in Solar-Powered Interfacial Evaporation, Water Remediation, and Soil Enrichment

Solar-powered interfacial evaporation has emerged as an innovative and sustainable technology for clean water production. However, the rapid, mass and shape-controlled fabrication of three-dimensional (3D) steam generators (SGs) for versatile hybrid applications remains challenging. Herein, composite aerogel beads with self-contained properties (i.e., hydrophilic, porous, photothermal, and durable) are developed and demonstrated for threefold hybrid applications including efficient solar-powered interfacial evaporation, water remediation, and controlled soil enrichment. The rational incorporation of selected polysaccharides enables us to fabricate bead-like aerogels with rapid gelation, continuous processing, and enhanced ion adsorption. The composite beads can attain a high water evaporation rate of 1.62 kg m-2 h-1 under 1 sun. Meanwhile, high phosphate adsorption capacity of over 120 mg g-1 is achieved in broad pH (2.5-12.4) and concentration (200-1000 mg L-1) ranges of phosphate solutions. Gratifyingly, we demonstrate the first example of recycling biomaterials from interfacial SGs for controlled nutrient release, soil enrichment, and sustainable agriculture. The phosphate-saturated beads can be gradually broken down in the soil. Macronutrients (N, P, and K) can be slowly released in 50 days, sustaining the plant germination and growth in a whole growth stage. This work shines light on the mass and controlled fabrication of aerogel beads based on double-network biopolymers, not merely scaling up solar-powered interfacial evaporation but also considering water remediation, waste material disposal, and value-added conversion.

Habitual Exercise, Air Pollution, and Pneumonia Mortality: A Longitudinal Cohort Study of Approximately 0.4 Million Adults

In this study, we aimed to examine the combined associations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and habitual exercise with pneumonia mortality. We included 384,130 persons aged ≥18 years from Taiwan, Republic of China, during 2001-2016. We followed participants until May 31, 2019, to obtain information on vital status. A time-dependent Cox regression model was used for statistical analysis. We found that risks of pneumonia mortality were reduced by 55% (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.36, 0.55) and 36% (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.80) in participants who engaged in high and moderate levels of exercise, respectively, as compared with inactive persons. By contrast, each 10-μg/m3 increase in chronic PM2.5 exposure was associated with a 30% (HR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.45) higher risk of pneumonia mortality. Risk of pneumonia death was 72% lower (HR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.41) for persons with a high exercise level and a low PM2.5 level. Lower risk of pneumonia mortality was associated with both higher exercise and lower PM2.5 air pollution levels. For adults exposed to different levels of PM2.5, exercise benefits remained. Our findings suggest that engaging in exercise is a safe and effective strategy for alleviating the burden of pneumonia mortality, even for people who reside in a moderately polluted area.