Cyanide Trapping of Iminium Ion Reactive Metabolites: Implications for Clinical Hepatotoxicity

Reactive metabolite formation is a major mechanism of hepatotoxicity. Although reactive electrophiles can be soft or hard in nature, screening strategies have generally focused on the use of glutathione trapping assays to screen for soft electrophiles, with many data sets available to support their use. The use of a similar assay for hard electrophiles using cyanide as the trapping agent is far less common, and there is a lack of studies with sufficient supporting data. Using a set of 260 compounds with a defined hepatotoxicity status by the FDA, a comprehensive literature search yielded cyanide trapping data on an unbalanced set of 20 compounds that were all clinically hepatotoxic. Thus, a further set of 19 compounds was selected to generate cyanide trapping data, resulting in a more balanced data set of 39 compounds. Analysis of the data demonstrated that the cyanide trapping assay had high specificity (92%) and a positive predictive value (83%) such that hepatotoxic compounds would be confidently flagged. Structural analysis of the adducts formed revealed artifactual methylated cyanide adducts to also occur, highlighting the importance of full structural identification to confirm the nature of the adduct formed. The assay was demonstrated to add the most value for compounds containing typical structural alerts for hard electrophile formation: half of the severe hepatotoxins with these structural alerts formed cyanide adducts, while none of the severe hepatotoxins with no relevant structural alerts formed adducts. The assay conditions used included cytosolic enzymes (e.g., aldehyde oxidase) and an optimized cyanide concentration to minimize the inhibition of cytochrome P450 enzymes by cyanide. Based on the demonstrated added value of this assay, it is to be initiated for use at GSK as part of the integrated hepatotoxicity strategy, with its performance being reviewed periodically as more data is generated.

National service evaluation of the quality of care for children and young people with congenital adrenal hyperplasia in the United Kingdom: survey responses from patients and clinicians

INTRODUCTION

Quantifying differences in service provision for children and young people (CYP) living with Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH) across the United Kingdom.

METHODS

A national service evaluation using online questionnaires circulated to patients and clinicians from secondary and tertiary UK centres managing CYP with CAH, and via the "Living with CAH" support group mailing list.

RESULTS

Total of 195 responses relating to patients aged 0-20 years attending 33 clinics (43 patients, 152 carers), as well as 34 clinicians from 18 trusts working across the 33 clinics. Only 12% of clinicians were 'completely satisfied' with the service provided, compared to 68% of carers and 76% of patients. Whilst 94% of clinicians reported providing formal training to families with CAH, over 80% of both patients and carers reported not attending what they considered formal training. Appetite for further training was higher in carers (86%) than patients (55%), although further 'unsure' responses suggested formal training sessions would likely be well attended. Access to psychological services was difficult for 44% of clinicians. Biochemical monitoring of treatment was broadly in keeping with international guidelines, with 67% of clinicians reporting regular use of dried blood spots, and 12% regular urinary steroid metabolites.

CONCLUSION

While there is overall good satisfaction with care provision among patients and carers with CAH in the UK, extra resources addressing the psychological and educational needs about the disease and its management would benefit patients and carers. Improved access to allied health professionals and psychologists will help support families and improve patient outcomes.

ADNEX risk prediction model for diagnosis of ovarian cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis of external validation studies

Objectives

To conduct a systematic review of studies externally validating the ADNEX (Assessment of Different Neoplasias in the adnexa) model for diagnosis of ovarian cancer and to present a meta-analysis of its performance.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis of external validation studies.

Data sources

Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and Europe PMC, from 15 October 2014 to 15 May 2023.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies

All external validation studies of the performance of ADNEX, with any study design and any study population of patients with an adnexal mass. Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Disagreements were resolved by discussion. Reporting quality of the studies was scored with the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) reporting guideline, and methodological conduct and risk of bias with PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool). Random effects meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity at the 10% risk of malignancy threshold, and net benefit and relative utility at the 10% risk of malignancy threshold were performed.

Results

47 studies (17 007 tumours) were included, with a median study sample size of 261 (range 24-4905). On average, 61% of TRIPOD items were reported. Handling of missing data, justification of sample size, and model calibration were rarely described. 91% of validations were at high risk of bias, mainly because of the unexplained exclusion of incomplete cases, small sample size, or no assessment of calibration. The summary AUC to distinguish benign from malignant tumours in patients who underwent surgery was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.94, 95% prediction interval 0.85 to 0.98) for ADNEX with the serum biomarker, cancer antigen 125 (CA125), as a predictor (9202 tumours, 43 centres, 18 countries, and 21 studies) and 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.91 to 0.94, 95% prediction interval 0.85 to 0.98) for ADNEX without CA125 (6309 tumours, 31 centres, 13 countries, and 12 studies). The estimated probability that the model has use clinically in a new centre was 95% (with CA125) and 91% (without CA125). When restricting analysis to studies with a low risk of bias, summary AUC values were 0.93 (with CA125) and 0.91 (without CA125), and estimated probabilities that the model has use clinically were 89% (with CA125) and 87% (without CA125).

Conclusions

The results of the meta-analysis indicated that ADNEX performed well in distinguishing between benign and malignant tumours in populations from different countries and settings, regardless of whether the serum biomarker, CA125, was used as a predictor. A key limitation was that calibration was rarely assessed.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO CRD42022373182.

Prognostic Biomarkers in Kidney Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Why are there so few biomarkers accepted by health authorities and implemented in clinical practice, despite the high and growing number of biomaker studies in medical research ? In this meta-epidemiological study, including 804 studies that were critically appraised by expert reviewers, the authors have identified all prognostic kidney transplant biomarkers and showed overall suboptimal study designs, methods, results, interpretation, reproducible research standards, and transparency. The authors also demonstrated for the first time that the limited number of studies challenged the added value of their candidate biomarkers against standard-of-care routine patient monitoring parameters. Most biomarker studies tended to be single-center, retrospective studies with a small number of patients and clinical events. Less than 5% of the studies performed an external validation. The authors also showed the poor transparency reporting and identified a data beautification phenomenon. These findings suggest that there is much wasted research effort in transplant biomarker medical research and highlight the need to produce more rigorous studies so that more biomarkers may be validated and successfully implemented in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND

Despite the increasing number of biomarker studies published in the transplant literature over the past 20 years, demonstrations of their clinical benefit and their implementation in routine clinical practice are lacking. We hypothesized that suboptimal design, data, methodology, and reporting might contribute to this phenomenon.

METHODS

We formed a consortium of experts in systematic reviews, nephrologists, methodologists, and epidemiologists. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library between January 1, 2005, and November 12, 2022 (PROSPERO ID: CRD42020154747). All English language, original studies investigating the association between a biomarker and kidney allograft outcome were included. The final set of publications was assessed by expert reviewers. After data collection, two independent reviewers randomly evaluated the inconsistencies for 30% of the references for each reviewer. If more than 5% of inconsistencies were observed for one given reviewer, a re-evaluation was conducted for all the references of the reviewer. The biomarkers were categorized according to their type and the biological milieu from which they were measured. The study characteristics related to the design, methods, results, and their interpretation were assessed, as well as reproducible research practices and transparency indicators.

RESULTS

A total of 7372 publications were screened and 804 studies met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1143 biomarkers were assessed among the included studies from blood ( n =821, 71.8%), intragraft ( n =169, 14.8%), or urine ( n =81, 7.1%) compartments. The number of studies significantly increased, with a median, yearly number of 31.5 studies (interquartile range [IQR], 23.8-35.5) between 2005 and 2012 and 57.5 (IQR, 53.3-59.8) between 2013 and 2022 ( P < 0.001). A total of 655 studies (81.5%) were retrospective, while 595 (74.0%) used data from a single center. The median number of patients included was 232 (IQR, 96-629) with a median follow-up post-transplant of 4.8 years (IQR, 3.0-6.2). Only 4.7% of studies were externally validated. A total of 346 studies (43.0%) did not adjust their biomarker for key prognostic factors, while only 3.1% of studies adjusted the biomarker for standard-of-care patient monitoring factors. Data sharing, code sharing, and registration occurred in 8.8%, 1.1%, and 4.6% of studies, respectively. A total of 158 studies (20.0%) emphasized the clinical relevance of the biomarker, despite the reported nonsignificant association of the biomarker with the outcome measure. A total of 288 studies assessed rejection as an outcome. We showed that these rejection studies shared the same characteristics as other studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarker studies in kidney transplantation lack validation, rigorous design and methodology, accurate interpretation, and transparency. Higher standards are needed in biomarker research to prove the clinical utility and support clinical use.

Initial versus Subsequent Injury and Illness and Temporal Trends Among Professional Hockey Players

Background

Research is limited investigating injuries/illness incidence among National Hockey League (NHL) players. This study sought to establish injury/illness incidence, initial versus subsequent injury risk among NHL players, and determine temporal trends of injury and illness incidence.

Hypothesis

Variations in injury incidence by body region, and initial versus subsequent injury would be observed among positions.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Methods

Publicly available data were utilized. NHL players 18 years or older between 2007-2008 to 2018-2019 were included. Injury and illness was stratified by position and body segment. Incidence rate (IR), and initial versus subsequent injury and illness risk ratios were calculated. Temporal trends were reported.

Results

Nine thousand, seven-hundred and thirty four injuries and illnesses were recorded. Centers had the highest overall IR at 15.14 per 1000 athlete game exposures (AGEs) (95%CI:15.12-15.15) and were 1.4 times more likely to sustain a subsequent injury compared to other positions. The groin/hip/thigh was the most commonly injured body region with an IR of 1.14 per 1000 AGEs (95%CI:1.06-1.21), followed by the head/neck (0.72 per 1000 AGEs, 95%CI:0.66-0.78). Combined injury and illness IR peaked in 2009-2010 season at 12.01 (95%CI: 11.22-12.79). The groin/hip/thigh demonstrated peak incidence during the 2007-2008 season (2.53, 95%CI:2.17-2.90); head/neck demonstrated a peak incidence in 2010-2011 season (Overall: 1.03, 95%CI:0.81-1.26). Injuries reported as 'lower body' increased over time.

Conclusions

Positional differences were observed; centers demonstrated the highest overall IR, and subsequent injury risk. Injury by body region was similar to previous literature. Head/neck and concussion decreased over time supporting rule changes in body checking and visor wear. Clinicians should be aware that 'lower body' injuries increased over time; therefore, injuries to the groin/hip/thigh or knee are likely underreported.

Level of Evidence

Level 3.

Development of the Escalation of Therapy or Intervention (ETI) Calculator for Patients with Ulcerative Colitis Using ePROMs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Digital collection of patient-reported outcome measures [PROMs] is largely unexplored as a basis for follow-up for patients with ulcerative colitis [UC]. Our aim was to develop a model to predict the likelihood of escalation of therapy or intervention at an outpatient appointment that may be used to rationalize follow-up.

METHODS

TrueColours-IBD is a web-based, real-time, remote monitoring software that allows longitudinal collection of ePROMs. Data for prediction modelling were derived from a Development Cohort, guided by the TRIPOD statement. Logistic regression modelling used ten candidate items to predict escalation of therapy or intervention. An Escalation of Therapy or Intervention [ETI] calculator was developed, and applied in a Validation Cohort at the same centre.

RESULTS

The Development Cohort [n = 66] was recruited in 2016 and followed for 6 months [208 appointments]. From ten items, four significant predictors of ETI were identified: SCCAI, IBD Control-8, faecal calprotectin, and platelets. For practicality, a model with only SCCAI and IBD Control-8, both entered remotely by the patient, without the need for faecal calprotectin or blood tests was selected. Between 2018 and 2020, a Validation Cohort of 538 patients [1188 appointments] was examined. A 5% threshold on the ETI calculator correctly identified 343/388 [88%] escalations and 274/484 [57%] non-escalations.

CONCLUSIONS

A calculator based on digital, patient-entered data on symptoms and quality of life can predict whether a patient with UC requires escalation of therapy or intervention at an outpatient appointment. This may be used to streamline outpatient appointments for patients with UC.

Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life

Polar ecosystems are experiencing amongst the most rapid rates of regional warming on Earth. Here, we discuss 'omics' approaches to investigate polar biodiversity, including the current state of the art, future perspectives and recommendations. We propose a community road map to generate and more fully exploit multi-omics data from polar organisms. These data are needed for the comprehensive evaluation of polar biodiversity and to reveal how life evolved and adapted to permanently cold environments with extreme seasonality. We argue that concerted action is required to mitigate the impact of warming on polar ecosystems via conservation efforts, to sustainably manage these unique habitats and their ecosystem services, and for the sustainable bioprospecting of novel genes and compounds for societal gain.

Evidence of questionable research practices in clinical prediction models

BACKGROUND

Clinical prediction models are widely used in health and medical research. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a frequently used estimate to describe the discriminatory ability of a clinical prediction model. The AUC is often interpreted relative to thresholds, with "good" or "excellent" models defined at 0.7, 0.8 or 0.9. These thresholds may create targets that result in "hacking", where researchers are motivated to re-analyse their data until they achieve a "good" result.

METHODS

We extracted AUC values from PubMed abstracts to look for evidence of hacking. We used histograms of the AUC values in bins of size 0.01 and compared the observed distribution to a smooth distribution from a spline.

RESULTS

The distribution of 306,888 AUC values showed clear excesses above the thresholds of 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9 and shortfalls below the thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

The AUCs for some models are over-inflated, which risks exposing patients to sub-optimal clinical decision-making. Greater modelling transparency is needed, including published protocols, and data and code sharing.

Elbow Injuries Among MLB Pitchers Increased During Covid-19 Disrupted Season, But Not Other Baseball Injuries

Background

The 2020 Major League Baseball Season (MLB) demonstrated season disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in training and seasonal time frames may be associated with higher rates of injury.

Purpose

To use publicly available data to compare injury rates during the 2015-2019 seasons, COVID-19 shortened season (2020), and the 2021 season stratified by body region and position (pitchers versus position players).

Study Design

A retrospective cohort study utilizing publicly available data.

Methods

MLB players who competed in 1+ seasons between 2015-2021 were included and stratified by position (pitcher, position player). Incidence rate (IR), reported by 1000 x Athlete-Game Exposures (AGEs), was calculated for each season, and stratified by position and body region. Poisson regressions were performed for all injuries and stratified by position to determine association between season and injury incidence. Subgroup analyses were performed on the elbow, groin/hip/thigh, shoulder.

Results

Four thousand, two hundred and seventy-four injuries and 796,502 AGEs across 15,152 players were documented. Overall IR was similar across seasons (2015-2019:5.39; 2020:5.85; 2021:5.04 per 1000 AGEs). IR remained high for the groin/hip/thigh for position players (2015-2019:1.7; 2020:2.0; 2021:1.7 per 1000 AGEs). There was no difference in injury rates between 2015-2019 and 2020 seasons [1.1 (0.9-1.2), p=0.310]. The 2020 season demonstrated a significant increase in elbow injuries [2.7 (1.8-4.0), p<0.001]; when stratified by position, this increase remained significant for pitchers [pitchers: 3.5 (2.1-5.9), p<0.001; position players: 1.8 (0.9-3.6), p=0.073]. No other differences were observed.

Conclusion

The groin/hip/thigh demonstrated the highest IR in 2020 among position players across all season time frames, indicating that continued injury mitigation for this region is necessary. When stratified by body region, elbow injury rates among pitchers demonstrated 3.5 times the rate of injury in 2020 compared to previous seasons, impacting injury burden for the most vulnerable body region among pitchers.

Level of Evidence

Level III.

Pneumoproteins and biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation do not predict rapid lung function decline in people living with HIV

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide and HIV is an independent risk factor for the development of COPD. However, the etiology of this increased risk and means to identify persons with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for COPD have remained elusive. Biomarkers may reveal etiologic pathways and allow better COPD risk stratification. We performed a matched case:control study of PWH in the Strategic Timing of Antiretoviral Treatment (START) pulmonary substudy. Cases had rapid lung function decline (> 40 mL/year FEV₁ decline) and controls had stable lung function (+ 20 to - 20 mL/year). The analysis was performed in two distinct groups: (1) those who were virally suppressed for at least 6 months and (2) those with untreated HIV (from the START deferred treatment arm). We used linear mixed effects models to test the relationship between case:control status and blood concentrations of pneumoproteins (surfactant protein-D and club cell secretory protein), and biomarkers of inflammation (IL-6 and hsCRP) and coagulation (d-dimer and fibrinogen); concentrations were measured within ± 6 months of first included spirometry. We included an interaction with treatment group (untreated HIV vs viral suppression) to test if associations varied by treatment group. This analysis included 77 matched case:control pairs in the virally suppressed batch, and 42 matched case:control pairs in the untreated HIV batch (n = 238 total) who were followed for a median of 3 years. Median (IQR) CD4 + count was lowest in the controls with untreated HIV at 674 (580, 838). We found no significant associations between case:control status and pneumoprotein or biomarker concentrations in either virally suppressed or untreated PWH. In this cohort of relatively young, recently diagnosed PWH, concentrations of pneumoproteins and biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation were not associated with subsequent rapid lung function decline.Trial registration: NCT00867048 and NCT01797367.

Development and External Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model to Identify Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia and Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: Diabetes Risk Assessment in Dentistry Score (DDS)

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a score for use in dental settings to identify those at risk of undiagnosed nondiabetic hyperglycemia (NDH) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Studies of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project comprises 2 representative population-based cohort studies conducted in northeast Germany. SHIP-TREND-0, 2008 to 2012 (the development data set) had 3,339 eligible participants, with 329 having undiagnosed NDH or T2D. Missing data were replaced using multiple imputation. Potential covariates were selected for inclusion in the model using backward elimination. Heuristic shrinkage was used to reduce overfitting, and the final model was adjusted for optimism. We report the full model and a simplified paper-based point-score system. External validation of the model and score employed an independent data set comprising 2,359 participants with 357 events. Predictive performance, discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, first-degree relative with diabetes, presence of a dental prosthesis, presence of mobile teeth, history of periodontal treatment, and probing pocket depths ≥5 mm as well as prespecified interaction terms. In SHIP-TREND-0, the model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69, 0.75), calibration in the large was -0.025. The point score AUC was 0.69 (95% CI 0.65, 0.72), with sensitivity of 77.0 (95% CI 76.8, 77.2), specificity of 51.5 (95% CI 51.4, 51.7), negative predictive value of 94.5 (95% CI 94.5, 94.6), and positive predictive value of 17.0 (95% CI 17.0, 17.1). External validation of the point score gave an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66, 0.71), sensitivity of 79.2 (95% CI 79.0, 79.4), specificity of 49.9 (95% CI 49.8, 50.00), negative predictive value 91.5 (95% CI 91.5, 91.6), and positive predictive value of 25.9 (95% CI 25.8, 26.0). A validated prediction model involving dental variables can identify NDH or undiagnosed T2DM. Further studies are required to validate the model for different European populations.

Personalized Injury Reduction Strategies in Sports Medicine: Lessons Learned from Advances in Breast Cancer Treatment: A Clinical Commentary

Background

Injury rates across sport have risen over the past twenty years, despite increased efforts in training and injury prevention. The rise in injury rates suggest that current approaches to estimating injury risk and risk management are not effective. One factor limiting progress is the inconsistency in screening, risk assessment, and risk management strategies to guide injury mitigation approaches.

Clinical Question

How can sports physical therapists identify and apply lessons learned from other healthcare fields to improve athlete injury risk and risk management strategies?

Key Results

Breast cancer mortality has consistently decreased over the last 30 years, largely attributed to advances in personalizing the prevention and treatment strategies which include modifiable and non-modifiable factors when assessing risk, the transition to personalized medicine, and the systematic approach used to investigate individual risk factors. Three critical phases have facilitated the identification and importance of individual risk factors and developing targeted, personalized strategies for breast cancer risk including: 1) Establishing the potential relationship between factors and outcomes; 2) Prospectively investigate the strength and direction of the relationship; 3) Investigating if intervening on identified factors alters prognosis.

Clinical Application

Applying lessons learned from other healthcare fields could improve shared decision making between the clinician and athlete concerning risk assessment and management. Examples include calculating only non-modifiable risk, creating individualized screening schedules based on risk assessment, or calculating the influence of each intervention on the athlete's injury risk. A systematic approach to identify and intervene on risk is needed to improve athlete outcomes.

Development of an Injury Burden Prediction Model in Professional Baseball Pitchers

Background

Baseball injuries are a significant problem and have increased in incidence over the last decade. Reporting injury incidence only gives context to rate but not in relation to severity or injury time loss.

Hypothesis/Purpose

The purpose of this study was to 1) incorporate both modifiable and non-modifiable factors to develop an arm injury burden prediction model in Minor League Baseball (MiLB) pitchers; and 2) understand how the model performs separately on elbow and shoulder injury burden.

Study Design

Prospective longitudinal study.

Methods

The study was conducted from 2013 to 2019 on MiLB pitchers. Pitchers were evaluated in spring training arm for shoulder range of motion and injuries were followed throughout the season. A model to predict arm injury burden was produced using zero inflated negative binomial regression. Internal validation was performed using ten-fold cross validation. Subgroup analyses were performed for elbow and shoulder separately. Model performance was assessed with root mean square error (RMSE), model fit (R2), and calibration with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

Results

Two-hundred, ninety-seven pitchers (94 injuries) were included with an injury incidence of 1.15 arm injuries per 1000 athletic exposures. Median days lost to an arm injury was 58 (11, 106). The final model demonstrated good prediction ability (RMSE: 11.9 days, R2: 0.80) and a calibration slope of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.04). A separate elbow model demonstrated weaker predictive performance (RMSE: 21.3; R2: 0.42; calibration: 1.25 [1.16, 1.34]), as did a separate shoulder model (RMSE: 17.9; R2: 0.57; calibration: 1.01 [0.92, 1.10]).

Conclusions

The injury burden prediction model demonstrated excellent performance. Caution should be advised with predictions between one to 14 days lost to arm injury. Separate elbow and shoulder prediction models demonstrated decreased performance. The inclusion of both modifiable and non-modifiable factors into a comprehensive injury burden model provides the most accurate prediction of days lost in professional pitchers.

Level of Evidence

2.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

External validation of inpatient neonatal mortality prediction models in high-mortality settings

BACKGROUND

Two neonatal mortality prediction models, the Neonatal Essential Treatment Score (NETS) which uses treatments prescribed at admission and the Score for Essential Neonatal Symptoms and Signs (SENSS) which uses basic clinical signs, were derived in high-mortality, low-resource settings to utilise data more likely to be available in these settings. In this study, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of two neonatal prediction models for all-cause in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

We used retrospectively collected routine clinical data recorded by duty clinicians at admission from 16 Kenyan hospitals used to externally validate and update the SENSS and NETS models that were initially developed from the data from the largest Kenyan maternity hospital to predict in-hospital mortality. Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, the ability of the model to differentiate between those with and without the outcome, was measured using the c-statistic. Calibration, the agreement between predictions from the model and what was observed, was measured using the calibration intercept and slope (with values of 0 and 1 denoting perfect calibration).

RESULTS

At initial external validation, the estimated mortality risks from the original SENSS and NETS models were markedly overestimated with calibration intercepts of - 0.703 (95% CI - 0.738 to - 0.669) and - 1.109 (95% CI - 1.148 to - 1.069) and too extreme with calibration slopes of 0.565 (95% CI 0.552 to 0.577) and 0.466 (95% CI 0.451 to 0.480), respectively. After model updating, the calibration of the model improved. The updated SENSS and NETS models had calibration intercepts of 0.311 (95% CI 0.282 to 0.350) and 0.032 (95% CI - 0.002 to 0.066) and calibration slopes of 1.029 (95% CI 1.006 to 1.051) and 0.799 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823), respectively, while showing good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.834 (95% CI 0.829 to 0.839) and 0.775 (95% CI 0.768 to 0.782), respectively. The overall calibration performance of the updated SENSS and NETS models was better than any existing neonatal in-hospital mortality prediction models externally validated for settings comparable to Kenya.

CONCLUSION

Few prediction models undergo rigorous external validation. We show how external validation using data from multiple locations enables model updating and improving their performance and potential value. The improved models indicate it is possible to predict in-hospital mortality using either treatments or signs and symptoms derived from routine neonatal data from low-resource hospital settings also making possible their use for case-mix adjustment when contrasting similar hospital settings.

Short Communication: A Pilot Study of the Effects of Losartan Versus Placebo on Pneumoproteins in HIV: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Double Blind Study

HIV is an independent risk factor for lung disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and emphysema. Angiotensin receptor blockers may be beneficial in COPD and emphysema through pathways that have been implicated in HIV-related lung disease. We performed a randomized comparison of the effects of losartan versus placebo on the plasma concentrations of the pneumoproteins, surfactant protein D (SPD) and club cell secretory protein (CCSP), in people living with HIV (PLWH). A total of 108 PLWH were included (52 assigned to losartan and 56 assigned to placebo). We found no difference in the change from baseline in log₂ concentrations of CCSP or SPD over 1 year of follow-up. For SPD, we found a strong interaction by CD4+ counts, where those with CD4+ counts >350 cells/mm³ treated with losartan had more reduction (improvement) in SPD concentration than those treated with placebo (p value for interaction <.001). In conclusion, we did not find a beneficial effect of losartan on pneumoprotein concentrations in PLWH, but PLWH with higher CD4+ counts may have improvement in SPD when treated with losartan.

Global, regional, and national burden of migraine in 204 countries and territories, 1990 to 2019

ABSTRACT

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used to report the burden of migraine in 204 countries and territories during the period 1990 to 2019, through a systematic analysis of point prevalence, annual incidence, and years lived with disability (YLD). In 2019, the global age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of migraine were 14,107.3 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI] 12,270.3-16,239) and 1142.5 (95% UI 995.9-1289.4) per 100,000, an increase of 1.7% (95% UI 0.7%-2.8%) and 2.1% (95% UI 1.1%-2.8%) since 1990, respectively. Moreover, the global age-standardised YLD rate in 2019 was 525.5 (95% UI 78.8-1194), an increase of 1.5% (95% UI -4.4% to 3.3%) since 1990. The global point prevalence of migraine in 2019 was higher in females and increased by age up to the 40 to 44 age group, then decreased with increased age. Belgium (22,400.6 [95% UI: 19,305.2-26,215.8]), Italy (20,337.7 [95% UI: 17,724.7-23,405.8]), and Germany (19,436.4 [95% UI: 16,806.2-22,810.3]) had the 3 highest age-standardised point prevalence rates for migraine in 2019. In conclusion, there were large intercountry differences in the burden of migraine, and this burden increased significantly across the measurement period. These findings suggest that migraine care needs to be included within the health system to increase population awareness regarding the probable risk factors and treatment strategies especially among young adults and middle-aged women, as well as to increase the data on migraines.

Prevalence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALYs) Due to Type 2 Diabetes and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIM

To report the point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to type 2 diabetes and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories during the period 1990-2019.

METHODS

We used the data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report number and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population of type 2 diabetes. Estimates were reported with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

In 2019, the global age-standardised point prevalence and death rates for type 2 diabetes were 5282.9 and 18.5 per 100 000, an increase of 49% and 10.8%, respectively, since 1990. Moreover, the global age-standardised DALY rate in 2019 was 801.5 per 100 000, an increase of 27.6% since 1990. In 2019, the global point prevalence of type 2 diabetes was slightly higher in males and increased with age up to the 75-79 age group, decreasing across the remaining age groups. American Samoa [19876.8] had the highest age-standardised point prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes in 2019. Generally, the burden of type 2 diabetes decreased with increasing SDI (Socio-demographic Index). Globally, high body mass index [51.9%], ambient particulate matter pollution [13.6%] and smoking [9.9%] had the three highest proportions of attributable DALYs.

CONCLUSION

Low and middle-income countries have the highest burden and greater investment in type 2 diabetes prevention is needed. In addition, accurate data on type 2 diabetes needs to be collected by the health systems of all countries to allow better monitoring and evaluation of population-level interventions.

Clostridioides difficile infection in solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients: A prospective multinational study

BACKGROUND

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in recipients of solid organ transplant (SOT) or hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). In retrospective single center analyses, severe disease and relapse are common. We undertook an international, prospective cohort study to estimate the response to physician determined antibiotic treatment for CDI in patients with SOT and HSCT.

METHODS

Adults with a first episode of CDI within the first 2 years of SOT or HSCT were enrolled. Demographics, comorbidities, and medication history were collected, and over 90 days of follow-up clinical cure, recurrences, and complications were assessed. Logistic regression was used to study associations of baseline predictors of clinical cure and recurrence. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are cited.

RESULTS

A total of 132 patients, 81 SOT and 51 HSCT (32 allogeneic), were enrolled with a median age of 56 years; 82 (62%) were males and 128 (97%) were hospitalized at enrollment. One hundred and six (80.3%) were diagnosed by DNA assay. CDI occurred at a median of 20 days post-transplant (interquartile range, IQR: 6-133). One hundred and eight patients (81.8%) were on proton pump inhibitors; 126 patients (95.5%) received antibiotics within the 6 weeks before CDI. The most common initial CDI treatments prescribed, on or shortly before enrollment, were oral vancomycin alone (50%) and metronidazole alone (36%). Eighty-three percent (95% CI: 76, 89) of patients had clinical cure; 18% (95% CI: 12, 27) of patients had recurrent CDI; global clinical cure occurred in 65.2%. Of the 11 patients who died, two (1.5% of total) were related to CDI. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, the type of initial treatment was associated with clinical cure (p = .009) and recurrence (p = .014). A history of cytomegalovirus (CMV) after transplant was associated with increased risk of recurrence (44% with versus 13% without CMV history; OR: 5.7, 95% CI: 1.5, 21.3; p = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults who develop CDI after SOT or HSCT, despite their immunosuppressed state, the percentage with clinical cure was high and the percentage with recurrence was low. Clinical cure and recurrence varied by type of initial treatment, and CMV viremia/disease was associated with an increased risk of recurrence.

Home-based rehabilitation programme compared with traditional physiotherapy for patients at risk of poor outcome after knee arthroplasty: the CORKA randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether a home-based rehabilitation programme for people assessed as being at risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty offers superior outcomes to traditional outpatient physiotherapy.

DESIGN

A prospective, single-blind, two-arm randomised controlled superiority trial.

SETTING

14 National Health Service physiotherapy departments in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

621 participants identified at high risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty using a bespoke screening tool.

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent home-based rehabilitation programme delivered by rehabilitation assistants with supervision from qualified therapists versus usual care outpatient physiotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Late-Life Function and Disability Instrument (LLFDI) at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were the Oxford Knee Score (a disease-specific measure of function), Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Quality of Life subscale, Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly, 5 dimension, 5 level version of Euroqol (EQ-5D-5L) and physical function assessed using the Figure of 8 Walk test, 30 s Chair Stand Test and Single Leg Stance.

RESULTS

621 participants were randomised between March 2015 and January 2018. 309 were assigned to CORKA (Community Rehabilitation after Knee Arthroplasty) home-based rehabilitation, receiving a median five treatment sessions (IQR 4-7). 312 were assigned to usual care, receiving a median 4 sessions (IQR 2-6). The primary outcome, LLFDI function total score at 12 months, was collected for 279 participants (89%) in the home-based CORKA group and 287 participants (92%) in the usual care group. No clinically or statistically significant difference was found between the groups (intention-to-treat adjusted difference=0.49 points; 95% CI -0.89 to 1.88; p=0.48). There were no statistically significant differences between the groups on any of the patient-reported or physical secondary outcome measures at 6 or 12 months.There were 18 participants in the intervention group reporting a serious adverse event (5.8%), only one directly related to the intervention, all other adverse events recorded throughout the trial related to underlying chronic medical conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The CORKA intervention was not superior to usual care. The trial detected no significant differences, clinical or statistical, between the two groups on either primary or secondary outcomes. CORKA offers an evaluation of an intervention utilising a different service delivery model for this patient group.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN13517704.

Systematic review of risk prediction studies in bone and joint infection: are modifiable prognostic factors useful in predicting recurrence?

Background: Classification systems for orthopaedic infection include patient health status, but there is no consensus about which comorbidities affect prognosis. Modifiable factors including substance use, glycaemic control, malnutrition and obesity may predict post-operative recovery from infection. Aim: This systematic review aimed (1) to critically appraise clinical prediction models for individual prognosis following surgical treatment for orthopaedic infection where an implant is not retained; (2) to understand the usefulness of modifiable prognostic factors for predicting treatment success. Methods: EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched for clinical prediction and prognostic studies in adults with orthopaedic infections. Infection recurrence or re-infection after at least 6 months was the primary outcome. The estimated odds ratios for the primary outcome in participants with modifiable prognostic factors were extracted and the direction of the effect reported. Results: Thirty-five retrospective prognostic cohort studies of 92 693 patients were included, of which two reported clinical prediction models. No studies were at low risk of bias, and no externally validated prediction models were identified. Most focused on prosthetic joint infection. A positive association was reported between body mass index and infection recurrence in 19 of 22 studies, similarly in 8 of 14 studies reporting smoking history and 3 of 4 studies reporting alcohol intake. Glycaemic control and malnutrition were rarely considered. Conclusion: Modifiable aspects of patient health appear to predict outcomes after surgery for orthopaedic infection. There is a need to understand which factors may have a causal effect. Development and validation of clinical prediction models that include participant health status will facilitate treatment decisions for orthopaedic infections.

The impact of hydraulic retention time on the performance of two configurations of anaerobic pond for municipal sewage treatment

Anaerobic ponds have the potential to contribute to low carbon wastewater treatment, however are currently restricted by long hydraulic residence time (HRT) which leads to large land requirements. A two-stage anaerobic pond (SAP) design was trialled against a single-stage control (CAP) over four HRTs down to 0.5 days, to determine the lowest HRT at which the ponds could operate effectively. No statistical differences were observed in particulate removal between the ponds over all four HRTs, suggesting solids loading is not a critical factor in AP design. Significantly higher biogas production rates were observed in the SAP than the CAP at 1.5 d and 1.0 d HRT, and microbial community profiling suggests the two-stage design may be facilitating spatial separation of the anaerobic digestion process along reactor length. Hydrogenotrophic methanogensis dominated over aceticlastic, with acetate oxidisation a likely degradation pathway. Experimental tracer studies were compared to CFD simulations, with the SAP showing greater hydraulic efficiency, and differences more pronounced at shorter HRTs. Greater flow recirculation between baffles was observed in CFD velocity profiles, demonstrating baffles can dissipate preferential flow patterns and increase effective pond volume, especially at high flow rates. The study demonstrates the potential of APs to be operated at shorter HRTs in psychrophilic conditions, presenting an opportunity for use as pre-treatments (in place of septic tanks) and primary treatment for full wastewater flows. Two-stage designs should be investigated to separate the stages of the anaerobic digestion process by creating preferential conditions along the pond length.

To Adjust or Not to Adjust: The Role of Different Covariates in Cardiovascular Observational Studies

Covariate adjustment is integral to the validity of observational studies assessing causal effects. It is common practice to adjust for as many variables as possible in observational studies in the hopes of reducing confounding by other variables. However, indiscriminate adjustment for variables using standard regression models may actually lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we differentiate between confounders, mediators, colliders, and effect modifiers. We will discuss that while confounders should be adjusted for in the analysis, one should be wary of adjusting for colliders. Mediators should not be adjusted for when examining the total effect of an exposure on an outcome. Automated statistical programs should not be used to decide which variables to include in causal models. Using a case scenario in cardiology, we will demonstrate how to identify confounders, colliders, mediators and effect modifiers and the implications of adjustment or non-adjustment for each of them.

Developing a reporting guideline for artificial intelligence-centred diagnostic test accuracy studies: the STARD-AI protocol

INTRODUCTION

Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Study (STARD) was developed to improve the completeness and transparency of reporting in studies investigating diagnostic test accuracy. However, its current form, STARD 2015 does not address the issues and challenges raised by artificial intelligence (AI)-centred interventions. As such, we propose an AI-specific version of the STARD checklist (STARD-AI), which focuses on the reporting of AI diagnostic test accuracy studies. This paper describes the methods that will be used to develop STARD-AI.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The development of the STARD-AI checklist can be distilled into six stages. (1) A project organisation phase has been undertaken, during which a Project Team and a Steering Committee were established; (2) An item generation process has been completed following a literature review, a patient and public involvement and engagement exercise and an online scoping survey of international experts; (3) A three-round modified Delphi consensus methodology is underway, which will culminate in a teleconference consensus meeting of experts; (4) Thereafter, the Project Team will draft the initial STARD-AI checklist and the accompanying documents; (5) A piloting phase among expert users will be undertaken to identify items which are either unclear or missing. This process, consisting of surveys and semistructured interviews, will contribute towards the explanation and elaboration document and (6) On finalisation of the manuscripts, the group's efforts turn towards an organised dissemination and implementation strategy to maximise end-user adoption.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been granted by the Joint Research Compliance Office at Imperial College London (reference number: 19IC5679). A dissemination strategy will be aimed towards five groups of stakeholders: (1) academia, (2) policy, (3) guidelines and regulation, (4) industry and (5) public and non-specific stakeholders. We anticipate that dissemination will take place in Q3 of 2021.

Temporal Trends and Severity in Injury and Illness Incidence in the National Basketball Association Over 11 Seasons

Background:

There is a paucity of current data describing injuries in professional basketball players. Utilizing publicly available injury data will allow for greater transparency for stakeholders to use the data as a shared resource to create future basketball injury prevention programs.

Purpose:

To describe injury and illness incidence, severity, and temporal trends in National Basketball Association (NBA) players. Among those who develop time-loss injury or illness, we estimated severity based on games missed because of injury or illness.

Study Design:

Descriptive epidemiology study.

Methods:

Publicly available NBA data were extracted through a reproducible computer-programmed process from the 2008 to 2019 seasons. Data were externally validated by 2 independent reviewers through other publicly available data sources. Injury and illness were calculated per 1000 athlete game-exposures (AGEs). Injury severity was calculated as games missed because of injury or illness. Injury and illness data were stratified by body part, position, severity (slight, minor, moderate, or severe), month, and year.

Results:

A total of 1369 players played a total of 302,018 player-games, with a total of 5375 injuries and illnesses. The overall injury and illness incidence was 17.80 per 1000 AGEs. The median injury severity was 3 games (interquartile range, 0-6 games) missed per injury. Overall, 33% of injuries were classified as slight; 26%, as minor; 26%, as moderate; and 15%, as severe. The ankle (2.57 injuries/1000 AGEs), knee (2.44 injuries/1000 AGEs), groin/hip/thigh (1.99 injuries/1000 AGEs), and illness (1.85 illnesses/1000 AGEs) had the greatest incidence of injury and illness. Neither injury or illness incidence nor severity was different among basketball playing positions. Injury incidence demonstrated increasing incremental trends with season progression. Injuries were similar throughout the 11-year reporting period, except for a substantial increase in the lockout-shortened 2012 season.

Conclusion:

The ankle and knee had the greatest injury incidence. Injury incidence was similar among basketball positions. Injury incidence increased throughout the season, demonstrating the potential relationship between player load and injury incidence.

POS0125 CALCULATING RISK OF HAND OSTEOARTHRITIS PROGRESSION AT TEN YEARS THROUGH A PREDICTION MODEL

Background:

Hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic, progressive disease, commonly affecting middle aged women. OA at the interphalangeal joints (IPJs) or the thumb base are considered different disease subsets (1). Few studies have investigated individual risk factors for IPJ OA progression (2). Prediction models can be used to calculate overall disease risk from multiple risk factors. This can guide prevention and treatment options.

Objectives:

Develop and internally validate a prediction model for IPJ OA progression.

Methods:

Data from the Chingford 1000 Women Study (Chingford Study), the largest population-based cohort worldwide assessing hand OA, was used. It is representative of the middle-aged female population in the United Kingdom (3). At baseline, 1,003 women aged 45 to 64 years’ old were recruited, and 693 measurements taken. Hand radiographs were taken at baseline and after ten years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) atlas (inter-observer correlation: ≥0.7 (4)).

For the current study, participants must have had OA (KL ≥2 in ≥1 IPJ) on baseline hand radiographs. Participants with KL 4 in all 16 IPJs at baseline were excluded. Risk factors from the Chingford Study at baseline were selected by biological plausibility, literature evidence (2), and hand surgeons‘ consensus (5): age (years), occupation (manual versus non manual), OA in ≥1 thumb base (KL ≥2 versus KL<2), body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2), family history of hand OA (yes versus no). The outcome was defined on an ordinal scale for the number of IPJs (up to >5 IPJs) with OA progression (increase by KL ≥1), at ten years’.

The prediction model was developed using a penalized proportional odds logistic regression. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were reported for each risk factor. The model was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap iterations. Model performance was assessed for discrimination (C-statistic), and calibration (C-slope). 3.5% of data was missing, and complete case analysis was used.

Results:

699 women had baseline hand radiographs: 38 were unreadable, 459 had no IPJ OA. Seven participants had missing data (occupation: 5, BMI: 1, family history: 1) and were excluded. 195 participants were included this study. Median age at baseline was 59 (interquartile range: 8) years.

181 (92.8%) participants had OA progression at 10 years (Figure 1). Thumb base OA (odds ratio: 1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)) was most strongly associated with IPJ OA progression (Table 1). C-statistic was 0.57, and calibration slope was 1.38 for the optimism-corrected model.

Table 1.

Odds ratios for risk factors

Risk factorOdds ratio (95% confidence interval)Age (years)1.02 (0.99 to 1.06)Occupation (manual versus non manual)0.88 (0.60 to 1.29)Thumb base OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥2 versus <2)1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)Family history of hand OA (yes versus no)1.03 (0.72 to 1.45)Body mass index (kg/m2)1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)

OA: Osteoarthritis

Conclusion:

More stringent cut-offs for OA progression would be clinically useful. It was only weakly possible to predict which participants with IPJ OA would progress. This suggests that other risk factors, such as gender, ethnicity and genetics, may be predominant.

Figure 1.

Hand interphalangeal joints with osteoarthritis progression (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥1) at 10 years’ follow up

References:

[1]Kloppenburg M, et al. Research in hand osteoarthritis: time for reappraisal and demand for new strategies. Ann Rheum Dis. 2007;66(9):1157-61.

[2]Shah K, et al. Risk factors for the progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis: a systematic review. Rheumatol Int. 2020;40(11):1781-1792.

[3]Hart DJ, Spector TD. The relationship of obesity, fat distribution and osteoarthritis in women in the general population: the Chingford Study. J Rheumatol. 1993;20:331-335.

[4]Hart DJ, et al. Reliability and reproducibility of grading radiographs for osteoarthritis of the hand. Br J Rheum. 1993;32:S1.

[5]Shah K, et al. Delphi consensus of risk factors for development and progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis. J Hand Surg Eur Vol. 2019;44(10):1089-1090.

Acknowledgements:

We would like to thank all of the participants of The Chingford 1000 Women Study, Professor Tim Spector, Dr Deborah Hart, Dr Alan Hakim, Maxine Daniels, Alison Turner, James van Santen and Julie Damnjanovic for their time and dedication.

Disclosure of Interests:

Karishma Shah: None declared, Garrett Bullock: None declared, Alan Silman: None declared, Dominic Furniss: None declared, Nigel Arden Consultant of: Receives personal fees from Pfizer/Lily for consultancy outside the scope of this work, Grant/research support from: Receives grant from Merck outside the scope of this work, Gary Collins: None declared

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVES

To describe the level and trends of point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for other musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, i.e. those not covered by specific estimates generated for RA, OA, low back pain, neck pain and gout, from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and sociodemographic index.

METHODS

Publicly available modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study were extracted and reported as counts and age-standardized rates per 100 000 population for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017.

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardized point prevalence estimates and deaths rates of other MSK disorders in 2017 were 4151.1 and 1.0 per 100 000. This was an increase of 3.4% and 7.2%, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate in 2017 was 380.2, an increase of 3.4%. The point prevalence estimate was higher among females and increased with age. This peaked in the 65-69 year age group for both females and males in 2017, followed by a decreasing trend for both sexes. At the national level, the highest age-standardized point prevalence estimates in 2017 were seen in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The largest increases in age-standardized point prevalence estimates were observed in Romania, Croatia and Armenia.

CONCLUSION

The burden of other MSK disorders is proven to be substantial and increasing worldwide, with a notable intercountry variation. Data pertaining to specific diseases within this overarching category are required for future GBD MSK estimates. This would enable policymakers to better allocate resources and provide interventions appropriately.

Comparative Pitching Biomechanics Among Adolescent Baseball Athletes: Are There Fundamental Differences Between Pitchers and Non-pitchers?

BACKGROUND

Approximately 25% of youth baseball players pitch, with most young athletes predominately playing multiple positions. While some youth baseball players may primarily pitch, other players may only pitch on occasion, potentially creating a pitching skill level discrepancy. Understanding potential kinematic and kinetic differences between pitching and non-pitching baseball players can inform injury risk reduction strategies for amateur athletes.

PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS

To analyze differences in pitching biomechanics for fastballs, breaking balls, and change-ups in adolescent youth baseball players that identify as pitchers and non-pitchers.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Baseball players were designated as pitchers or non-pitchers, who then threw fastballs (FB), breaking balls (BB), and change-ups (CH) during a biomechanical assessment. T-tests, Mann-Whitney U tests, and ANOVAs with Bonferroni correction, and effect sizes (ES) were performed.

RESULTS

Sixty baseball players (pitchers = 40; non-pitchers = 20; Age: 15.0 (1.1); Left-handed: 15%; Height 1.77 (0.09) m; Weight: 70.0 (12.5) kg) threw 495 pitches (FB: 177, BB: 155, CH: 163) for analysis. Pitchers threw 2 m/s faster and produced greater trunk rotation velocity (ES: 0.71 (95% CI: 0.39, 1.30, p<0.0001) than non-pitchers. Furthermore, pitchers demonstrated greater ground reaction force for FB compared to CH (ES: 0.48 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.94), p<0.0001). No other biomechanical differences were observed between pitchers and non-pitchers or between pitch types.

CONCLUSION

Despite throwing at greater velocity for all pitch types, baseball players that identify primarily as pitchers had overall similar kinematics and kinetics in comparison to baseball players that primarily identify as non-pitchers. Self-identified pitching baseball athletes have improved force transfer strategies for ball propulsion, utilizing different force production and attenuation strategies across different pitch types when compared to non-pitchers. Coaches should consider that novice pitchers may potentially have dissimilar trunk and ground reaction strategies in comparison to primary pitchers when designing appropriate pitch loading and recovery strategies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.

Losartan to reduce inflammation and fibrosis endpoints in HIV disease

BACKGROUND

Persistent inflammation and incomplete immune recovery among persons with HIV (PHIV) are associated with increased disease risk. We hypothesized that the angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) losartan would reduce inflammation by mitigating nuclear factor (NF)κB responses and promote T-cell recovery via inhibition of transforming growth factor-beta (TGFβ)-mediated fibrosis.

METHODS

Losartan (100 mg) versus placebo over 12 months was investigated in a randomized (1 : 1) placebo-controlled trial, among PHIV age at least 50 years, receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), with HIV RNA less than 200 copies/ml and CD4+ cell count 600 cells/μl or less. Inflammation, fibrosis and myocardial biomarkers were measured in blood using ELISA, electrochemiluminescence and immunoturbidimetric methods, and T-cell and monocyte phenotypes were assessed with flow cytometry among a subset of participants. Changes over follow-up in (log-2 transformed) biomarkers and cell phenotypes (untransformed) were compared between losartan and placebo arms using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Among 108 PHIV (n = 52 to losartan; n = 56 to placebo), 97% had a month 12 visit. Median age was 57 years and baseline CD4+ cell count was 408 cells/μl. Losartan treatment was not associated with an improvement in interleukin-6 levels, or other blood measures of inflammation, immune activation, fibrosis activity or myocardial function. CD4+ and CD8+ T cells also did not differ by treatment group. Losartan reduced SBP and DBP by 6 and 5 mmHg, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Among older PHIV with viral suppression, losartan did not improve blood measures of inflammation nor T-cell immune recovery. Losartan treatment is unlikely to reduce inflammation associated comorbidities to a clinically meaningful degree, beyond the benefits from lowering blood pressure.

CLINICALTRIALSGOV

NCT02049307.

Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years Due to Musculoskeletal Disorders for 195 Countries and Territories 1990-2017

OBJECTIVE

To report the levels and trends of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to musculoskeletal disorders, categorized as low back pain, neck pain, osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), gout, and other musculoskeletal disorders, across 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 according to age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors).

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017. The fatal and nonfatal burdens of musculoskeletal disorders were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and Bayesian meta-regression tool, respectively. Estimates were provided for all musculoskeletal disorders and the corresponding 6 categories at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2017. Counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population along with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) were reported for prevalence, deaths, and DALYs.

RESULTS

Globally, there were ~1.3 billion prevalent cases (95% UI 1.2 billion, 1.4 billion), 121.3 thousand deaths (95% UI 105.6 thousand, 126.2 thousand), and 138.7 million DALYs (95% UI 101.9 million, 182.6 million) due to musculoskeletal disorders in 2017. Age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates per 100,000 population were 16,276.2 (95% UI 15,495.5, 17,145.8), 1.6 (95% UI 1.4, 1.6), and 1,720 (95% UI 1,264.4, 2,259.2), respectively. Age-standardized prevalence (-1.6% [95% UI -2.4, -0.8]) and DALY rates (-3.5% [95% UI -4.7, -2.3]) decreased slightly from 1990. The global point prevalence rate of musculoskeletal disorders in 2017 was higher in women than in men and increased with age up to the oldest age group. Globally, the proportion of prevalent cases according to category of musculoskeletal disorders in 2017 was greatest for low back pain (36.8%), followed by other musculoskeletal disorders (21.5%), OA (19.3%), neck pain (18.4%), gout (2.6%), and RA (1.3%). These proportions did not change appreciably compared with 1990. The burden due to musculoskeletal conditions was higher in developed countries. The countries with the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of musculoskeletal disorders in 2017 were Switzerland (23,346.0 [95% UI 22,392.6, 24,329.8]), Chile (23,007.9 [95% UI 21,746.5, 24,165.8]), and Denmark (22,166.1 [95% UI 20,817.2, 23,542.1]). The greatest increases from 1990 were found in Chile (10.8% [95% UI 6.6, 15.4]), Benin (8.8% [95% UI 6.7, 11.1]), and El Salvador (8.5% [95% UI 5.5, 11.9]).

CONCLUSION

There is a large burden of musculoskeletal disorders globally, with some notable inter-country variation. Some countries have twice the burden of other countries. Increasing population awareness regarding risk factors, consequences, and evidence-informed treatment strategies for musculoskeletal disorders with a focus on the older female population in developed countries is needed, particularly for low back and neck pain and OA, which contribute a large burden among this cohort.

The reporting of observational studies of drug effectiveness and safety: recommendations to extend existing guidelines

INTRODUCTION

The use of observational data to assess drug effectiveness and safety can provide relevant information, much of which may not be feasible to obtain through randomized clinical trials. Because observational studies provide critical drug safety and effectiveness information that influences drug policy and prescribing practices, transparent, consistent, and accurate reporting of these studies is critical.

AREAS COVERED

We provide recommendations to extend existing reporting guidelines, covering the main components of primary research studies (methods, results, discussion).

EXPERT OPINION

Our recommendations include extending drug safety and effectiveness guidelines to include explicit checklist items on: study registration, causal diagrams, rationale for measures of effect, comprehensive assessment of bias, comprehensive data cleaning steps, drug equivalents, subject-level drug data visualization, sex and gender-based analyses and results, patient-oriented outcomes, and patient involvement in research.

Advanced reperfusion strategies for patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and refractory ventricular fibrillation (ARREST): a phase 2, single centre, open-label, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Among patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and ventricular fibrillation, more than half present with refractory ventricular fibrillation unresponsive to initial standard advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) treatment. We did the first randomised clinical trial in the USA of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)-facilitated resuscitation versus standard ACLS treatment in patients with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation.

METHODS

For this phase 2, single centre, open-label, adaptive, safety and efficacy randomised clinical trial, we included adults aged 18-75 years presenting to the University of Minnesota Medical Center (MN, USA) with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation, no return of spontaneous circulation after three shocks, automated cardiopulmonary resuscitation with a Lund University Cardiac Arrest System, and estimated transfer time shorter than 30 min. Patients were randomly assigned to early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation or standard ACLS treatment on hospital arrival by use of a secure schedule generated with permuted blocks of randomly varying block sizes. Allocation concealment was achieved by use of a randomisation schedule that required scratching off an opaque layer to reveal assignment. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes were safety, survival, and functional assessment at hospital discharge and at 3 months and 6 months after discharge. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The study qualified for exception from informed consent (21 Code of Federal Regulations 50.24). The ARREST trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03880565.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 8, 2019, and June 14, 2020, 36 patients were assessed for inclusion. After exclusion of six patients, 30 were randomly assigned to standard ACLS treatment (n=15) or to early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation (n=15). One patient in the ECMO-facilitated resuscitation group withdrew from the study before discharge. The mean age was 59 years (range 36-73), and 25 (83%) of 30 patients were men. Survival to hospital discharge was observed in one (7%) of 15 patients (95% credible interval 1·6-30·2) in the standard ACLS treatment group versus six (43%) of 14 patients (21·3-67·7) in the early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation group (risk difference 36·2%, 3·7-59·2; posterior probability of ECMO superiority 0·9861). The study was terminated at the first preplanned interim analysis by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute after unanimous recommendation from the Data Safety Monitoring Board after enrolling 30 patients because the posterior probability of ECMO superiority exceeded the prespecified monitoring boundary. Cumulative 6-month survival was significantly better in the early ECMO group than in the standard ACLS group. No unanticipated serious adverse events were observed.

INTERPRETATION

Early ECMO-facilitated resuscitation for patients with OHCA and refractory ventricular fibrillation significantly improved survival to hospital discharge compared with standard ACLS treatment.

FUNDING

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Outpatient physiotherapy versus home-based rehabilitation for patients at risk of poor outcomes after knee arthroplasty: CORKA RCT

BACKGROUND

Over 100,000 primary knee arthroplasty operations are undertaken annually in the UK. Around 15-30% of patients do not report a good outcome. Better rehabilitation strategies may improve patient-reported outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the outcomes from a traditional outpatient physiotherapy model with those from a home-based rehabilitation programme for people assessed as being at risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

DESIGN

An individually randomised, two-arm controlled trial with a blinded outcome assessment, a parallel health economic evaluation and a nested qualitative study.

SETTING

The trial took place in 14 NHS physiotherapy departments.

PARTICIPANTS

People identified as being at high risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent home-based rehabilitation package delivered by rehabilitation assistants with supervision from qualified therapists compared with usual-care outpatient physiotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Late Life Function and Disability Instrument at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were the Oxford Knee Score (a disease-specific measure of function); Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score; Quality of Life subscale; Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly; EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version; and physical function assessed using the Figure-of-8 Walk Test, 30-Second Chair Stand Test and Single Leg Stance. Data on the use of health-care services, time off work and informal care were collected using participant diaries.

RESULTS

In total, 621 participants were randomised. A total of 309 participants were assigned to the COmmunity based Rehabilitation after Knee Arthroplasty (CORKA) home-based rehabilitation programme, receiving a median of five treatment sessions (interquartile range 4-7 sessions). A total of 312 participants were assigned to usual care, receiving a median of four sessions (interquartile range 2-6 sessions). The primary outcome, Late Life Function and Disability Instrument function total score at 12 months, was collected for 279 participants (89%) in the home-based CORKA group and 287 participants (92%) in the usual-care group. No clinically or statistically significant difference was found between the groups (intention-to-treat adjusted difference 0.49 points, 95% confidence interval -0.89 to 1.88 points; p = 0.48). There were no statistically significant differences between the groups in any of the patient-reported or physical secondary outcome measures at 6 or 12 months post randomisation. The health economic analysis found that the CORKA intervention was cheaper to provide than usual care (£66 less per participant). Total societal costs (combining health-care costs and other costs) were lower for the CORKA intervention than usual care (£316 less per participant). Adopting a societal perspective, CORKA had a 75% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Adopting the narrower health and social care perspective, CORKA had a 43% probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.

LIMITATIONS

The interventions were of short duration and were set within current commissioning guidance for UK physiotherapy. Participants and treating therapists could not be blinded.

CONCLUSIONS

This randomised controlled trial found no important differences in outcomes when post-arthroplasty rehabilitation was delivered using a home-based, rehabilitation assistant-delivered rehabilitation package or a traditional outpatient model. However, the health economic evaluation found that when adopting a societal perspective, the CORKA home-based intervention was cost-saving and more effective than, and thus dominant over, usual care, owing to reduced time away from paid employment for this group. Further research could look at identifying the risk of poor outcome and further evaluation of a cost-effective treatment, including the workforce model to deliver it.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13517704.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Prediction modelling of inpatient neonatal mortality in high-mortality settings

OBJECTIVE

Prognostic models aid clinical decision making and evaluation of hospital performance. Existing neonatal prognostic models typically use physiological measures that are often not available, such as pulse oximetry values, in routine practice in low-resource settings. We aimed to develop and validate two novel models to predict all cause in-hospital mortality following neonatal unit admission in a low-resource, high-mortality setting.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We used basic, routine clinical data recorded by duty clinicians at the time of admission to derive (n=5427) and validate (n=1627) two novel models to predict in-hospital mortality. The Neonatal Essential Treatment Score (NETS) included treatments prescribed at the time of admission while the Score for Essential Neonatal Symptoms and Signs (SENSS) used basic clinical signs. Logistic regression was used, and performance was evaluated using discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

At derivation, c-statistic (discrimination) for NETS was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.93) and that for SENSS was 0.91 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.93). At external (temporal) validation, NETS had a c-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.92) and SENSS 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.93). The calibration intercept for NETS was -0.72 (95% CI -0.96 to -0.49) and that for SENSS was -0.33 (95% CI -0.56 to -0.11).

CONCLUSION

Using routine neonatal data in a low-resource setting, we found that it is possible to predict in-hospital mortality using either treatments or signs and symptoms. Further validation of these models may support their use in treatment decisions and for case-mix adjustment to help understand performance variation across hospitals.

Synovial fluid fingerprinting in end-stage knee osteoarthritis: a novel biomarker concept

Aims

The lack of disease-modifying treatments for osteoarthritis (OA) is linked to a shortage of suitable biomarkers. This study combines multi-molecule synovial fluid analysis with machine learning to produce an accurate diagnostic biomarker model for end-stage knee OA (esOA).

Methods

Synovial fluid (SF) from patients with esOA, non-OA knee injury, and inflammatory knee arthritis were analyzed for 35 potential markers using immunoassays. Partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to derive a biomarker model for cohort classification. The ability of the biomarker model to diagnose esOA was validated by identical wide-spectrum SF analysis of a test cohort of ten patients with esOA.

Results

PLS-DA produced a streamlined biomarker model with excellent sensitivity (95%), specificity (98.4%), and reliability (97.4%). The eight-biomarker model produced a fingerprint for esOA comprising type IIA procollagen N-terminal propeptide (PIIANP), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP)-1, a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 4 (ADAMTS-4), monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10), and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β3. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrated excellent discriminatory accuracy: area under the curve (AUC) being 0.970 for esOA, 0.957 for knee injury, and 1 for inflammatory arthritis. All ten validation test patients were classified correctly as esOA (accuracy 100%; reliability 100%) by the biomarker model.

Conclusion

SF analysis coupled with machine learning produced a partially validated biomarker model with cohort-specific fingerprints that accurately and reliably discriminated esOA from knee injury and inflammatory arthritis with almost 100% efficacy. The presented findings and approach represent a new biomarker concept and potential diagnostic tool to stage disease in therapy trials and monitor the efficacy of such interventions.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(9):623-632.

For Victims of Fatal Child Abuse, Who Has the Right to Consent to Organ Donation?

In rare circumstances, children who have suffered traumatic brain injury from child abuse are declared dead by neurologic criteria and are eligible to donate organs. When the parents are the suspected abusers, there can be confusion about who has the legal right to authorize organ donation. Furthermore, organ donation may interfere with the collection of forensic evidence that is necessary to evaluate the abuse. Under those circumstances, particularly in the context of a child homicide investigation, the goals of organ donation and collection and preservation of critical forensic evidence may seem mutually exclusive. In this Ethics Rounds, we discuss such a case and suggest ways to resolve the apparent conflicts between the desire to procure organs for donation and the need to thoroughly evaluate the evidence of abuse.

An Adaptive Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic-Driven Design to Investigate the Effect of Itraconazole and Rifampicin on the Pharmacokinetics of Molibresib (GSK525762) in Healthy Female Volunteers

Molibresib (GSK525762), an orally bioavailable small molecule with 2 major equipotent active metabolites, is being developed for the treatment of cancers. Molibresib is a substrate of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 and P‐glycoprotein (P‐gp). To enable administering safe doses of molibresib to healthy volunteers, this 2‐part randomized, open‐label, crossover drug‐drug interaction trial was conducted as an adaptive design study using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation to predict the lowest doses of molibresib that could be safely administered alone (10 mg) or with itraconazole and rifampicin (strong inhibitors and inducers of CYP3A and P‐gp, respectively). PBPK simulation guided the molibresib dose (5 mg) to be administered along with itraconazole in part 1. Itraconazole increased total exposure (AUC) of molibresib by 4.15‐fold with a 66% increase in C_max, whereas the total AUC and C_max for the 2 major active metabolites of molibresib decreased by about 70% and 87%, respectively. A second PBPK simulation was conducted with part 1 data to also include the active metabolites to update the recommendation for the molibresib dose (20 mg) with rifampicin. With rifampicin, the AUC and C_max of molibresib decreased by approximately 91% and 80%, respectively, whereas the AUC of the 2 active metabolites decreased to a lesser extent (8%), with a 2‐fold increase in C_max. The results of this study confirmed the in vitro data that molibresib is a substrate for CYP3A4. The adaptive design, including Simcyp simulations, allowed evaluation of 2 drug interactions of an oncology drug in a single trial, thus minimizing time and exposures administered to healthy subjects.

OP0280 TEMPORAL TRENDS OF OPIOID USE AMONG INCIDENT OSTEOARTHRITIS PATIENTS IN CATALONIA, 2007-2016: A POPULATION-BASED COHORT STUDY

Background:

Opioids are not recommended as first-line treatments for chronic pain management in osteoarthritis (OA), but recent data suggest they are commonly used in routine practice in North America and northern Europe.

Objectives:

To characterise the secular trends of opioid and strong opioids use in patients with incident OA from 2007 to 2016, and to explore the impact of patient characteristics on the use of opioid/s for OA.

Methods:

Data was obtained from the SIDIAP (The System for the Development of Research in Primary Care) database, which contains primary care records and pharmacy dispensing data for 80 % of the population in Catalonia (~ 6 million people). All persons aged 18 or older at the beginning of each calendar year with an incident OA diagnosis (including both peripheral and central joints) in the study period were included. Index date was the date of first OA diagnosis, and the observation period of opioid use was 1-year after index date. Opioids considered included codeine, tramadol, fentanyl, and morphine, with the latter three classified as strong opioids. The period prevalence of any opioid use was estimated in whole and sub-population stratified by sex, age, socio-economic status (U1 – U5, higher values of the indicator equivalent to deprivation) and residence area (rural/urban).

Results:

The 1-year prevalence of any opioid use among incident OA patients was around 15% from 2007 to 2012. After that, this figure grew by 10% approaching 25% in 2016. However, strong opioid use increased continuously to nearly triple, from 8% in 2007 to 20% in 2016. The different subgroups followed similar trends over time, with women 4% higher than men, oldest 10% higher than youngest, most deprived 6% higher than least deprived, and rural 1% higher than urban.

Conclusion:

The use of opioids (and especially strong opioids) has substantially increased in recent years among newly diagnosed OA patients in Catalonia. Our findings call for urgent action for safe opioid prescribing to avoid opioid abuse in OA patients especially amongst older women living in deprived areas.

Figure 1.

Trends of 1-year prevalence of opioid/s use among incident OA patients, whole and subgroup population.

Disclosure of Interests:

Junqing Xie: None declared, Aleksandra Turkiewicz: None declared, Gary Collins: None declared, Martin Englund Consultant of: Advisory Board 1 day (2019) Pfizer (Tanezumab)., Victoria Y Strauss: None declared, Carlen Reyes: None declared, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra Grant/research support from: Professor Prieto-Alhambra has received research Grants from AMGEN, UCB Biopharma and Les Laboratoires Servier, Consultant of: DPA’s department has received fees for consultancy services from UCB Biopharma, Speakers bureau: DPA’s department has received fees for speaker and advisory board membership services from Amgen

Global, regional and national burden of osteoarthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVES

To report the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis (OA) in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and Socio-demographic index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors).

METHODS

Publicly available modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 were used. The burden of OA was estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of prevalence and incidence modelled data using the methods reported in the GBD 2017 Study. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of OA in 2017 were 3754.2 (95% UI 3389.4 to 4187.6) and 181.2 (95% UI 162.6 to 202.4) per 100 000, an increase of 9.3% (95% UI 8% to 10.7%) and 8.2% (95% UI 7.1% to 9.4%) from 1990, respectively. In addition, global age-standardised YLD rate in 2017 was 118.8 (95% UI 59.5 to 236.2), an increase of 9.6% (95% UI 8.3% to 11.1%) from 1990. The global prevalence was higher in women and increased with age, peaking at the >95 age group among women and men in 2017. Generally, a positive association was found between the age-standardised YLD rate and SDI at the regional and national levels. Age-standardised prevalence of OA in 2017 ranged from 2090.3 to 6128.1 cases per 100 000 population. United States (6128.1 (95% UI 5729.3 to 6582.9)), American Samoa (5281 (95% UI 4688 to 5965.9)) and Kuwait (5234.6 (95% UI 4643.2 to 5953.6)) had the three highest levels of age-standardised prevalence. Oman (29.6% (95% UI 24.8% to 34.9%)), Equatorial Guinea (28.6% (95% UI 24.4% to 33.7%)) and the United States 23.2% (95% UI 16.4% to 30.5%)) showed the highest increase in the age-standardised prevalence during 1990-2017.

CONCLUSIONS

OA is a major public health challenge. While there is remarkable international variation in the prevalence, incidence and YLDs due to OA, the burden is increasing in most countries. It is expected to continue with increased life expectancy and ageing of the global population. Improving population and policy maker awareness of risk factors, including overweight and injury, and the importance and benefits of management of OA, together with providing health services for an increasing number of people living with OA, are recommended for management of the future burden of this condition.

Global, regional and national burden of osteoarthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVES

To report the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis (OA) in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and Socio-demographic index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors).

METHODS

Publicly available modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 were used. The burden of OA was estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of prevalence and incidence modelled data using the methods reported in the GBD 2017 Study. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of OA in 2017 were 3754.2 (95% UI 3389.4 to 4187.6) and 181.2 (95% UI 162.6 to 202.4) per 100 000, an increase of 9.3% (95% UI 8% to 10.7%) and 8.2% (95% UI 7.1% to 9.4%) from 1990, respectively. In addition, global age-standardised YLD rate in 2017 was 118.8 (95% UI 59.5 to 236.2), an increase of 9.6% (95% UI 8.3% to 11.1%) from 1990. The global prevalence was higher in women and increased with age, peaking at the >95 age group among women and men in 2017. Generally, a positive association was found between the age-standardised YLD rate and SDI at the regional and national levels. Age-standardised prevalence of OA in 2017 ranged from 2090.3 to 6128.1 cases per 100 000 population. United States (6128.1 (95% UI 5729.3 to 6582.9)), American Samoa (5281 (95% UI 4688 to 5965.9)) and Kuwait (5234.6 (95% UI 4643.2 to 5953.6)) had the three highest levels of age-standardised prevalence. Oman (29.6% (95% UI 24.8% to 34.9%)), Equatorial Guinea (28.6% (95% UI 24.4% to 33.7%)) and the United States 23.2% (95% UI 16.4% to 30.5%)) showed the highest increase in the age-standardised prevalence during 1990-2017.

CONCLUSIONS

OA is a major public health challenge. While there is remarkable international variation in the prevalence, incidence and YLDs due to OA, the burden is increasing in most countries. It is expected to continue with increased life expectancy and ageing of the global population. Improving population and policy maker awareness of risk factors, including overweight and injury, and the importance and benefits of management of OA, together with providing health services for an increasing number of people living with OA, are recommended for management of the future burden of this condition.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain in the general population, 1990-2017: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVE

To use data from the Global Burden of Disease Study between 1990 and 2017 to report the rates and trends of point prevalence, annual incidence, and years lived with disability for neck pain in the general population of 195 countries.

DESIGN

Systematic analysis.

DATA SOURCE

Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers and age standardised rates per 100 000 population of neck pain point prevalence, annual incidence, and years lived with disability were compared across regions and countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals.

RESULTS

Globally in 2017 the age standardised rates for point prevalence of neck pain per 100 000 population was 3551.1 (95% uncertainty interval 3139.5 to 3977.9), for incidence of neck pain per 100 000 population was 806.6 (713.7 to 912.5), and for years lived with disability from neck pain per 100 000 population was 352.0 (245.6 to 493.3). These estimates did not change significantly between 1990 and 2017. The global point prevalence of neck pain in 2017 was higher in females compared with males, although this was not significant at the 0.05 level. Prevalence increased with age up to 70-74 years and then decreased. Norway (6151.2 (95% uncertainty interval 5382.3 to 6959.8)), Finland (5750.3 (5058.4 to 6518.3)), and Denmark (5316 (4674 to 6030.1)) had the three highest age standardised point prevalence estimates in 2017. The largest increases in age standardised point prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2017 were in the United Kingdom (14.6% (10.6% to 18.8%)), Sweden (10.4% (6.0% to 15.4%)), and Kuwait (2.6% (2.0% to 3.2%)). In general, positive associations, but with fluctuations, were found between age standardised years lived with disability for neck pain and sociodemographic index at the global level and for all Global Burden of Disease regions, suggesting the burden is higher at higher sociodemographic indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general population, with the highest burden in Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Increasing population awareness about risk factors and preventive strategies for neck pain is warranted to reduce the future burden of this condition.