Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immunogenicity of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression

BACKGROUND

The adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV), consisting of varicella-zoster virus glycoprotein E (gE) and the AS01B adjuvant system, effectively prevents herpes zoster (HZ). In the absence of a well-defined correlate of protection, it is important to monitor the RZV immune response, as a proxy of clinical effectiveness.

METHODS

This systematic review examined post-vaccination parameters: humoral and cell-mediated immunity, avidity index, geometric mean concentration of antibody (GMC), and immunity persistence. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model, and subgroup and meta-regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Among 37 included articles, after one month from RZV-dose 2, the pooled response rate for anti-gE humoral immunity was 95.2% (95%CI 91.9-97.2), dropping to 77.6% (95%CI 64.7-86.8) during immunosuppression. The anti-gE cell-mediated immunity-specific response reached 84.6% (95%CI 75.2-90.9). Varying factors, such as age, sex, coadministration with other vaccines, prior HZ, or live-attenuated zoster vaccine, did not significantly affect response rates. RZV induced a substantial increase in gE avidity. Immunity persistence was confirmed, with more rapid waning in the very elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review indicates that RZV elicits robust immunogenicity and overcomes immunocompromising conditions. The findings underscore the need for further research, particularly on long-term immunity, and have the potential to support HZ vaccination policies and programs.

Health and economic impact of dapagliflozin for type 2 diabetes patients who had or were at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Italian general practitioners setting: a budget impact analysis

AIM

In 2022, in Italy, general practitioners (GPs) have been allowed to prescribe SGLT2i in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) under National Health Service (NHS) reimbursement. In the pivotal clinical trial named DECLARE-TIMI 58, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of hospitalization for heart failure, CV death and kidney disease progression compared to placebo in a population of T2D patients. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of dapagliflozin for T2D patients who had or were at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Italian GPs setting.

METHODS

A budget impact model was developed to assess the health and economic impact of introducing dapagliflozin in GPs setting. The analysis was conducted by adopting the Italian NHS perspective and a 3-year time horizon. The model estimated and compared the health outcomes and direct medical costs associated with a scenario with dapagliflozin and other antidiabetic therapies available for GPs prescription (scenario B) and a scenario where only other antidiabetic therapies are available (scenario A). Rates of occurrence of cardiovascular and renal complications as well as adverse events were captured from DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial and the literature, while cost data were retrieved from the Italian tariff and the literature. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the impact of model parameters on the budget impact.

RESULTS

The model estimated around 442.000 patients eligible for the treatment with dapagliflozin in the GPs setting for each simulated year. The scenario B compared to scenario A was associated with a reduction in the occurrence of cardiovascular and renal complication (-1.83%) over the 3 years simulated. Furthermore, the scenario A allowed for an overall cost saving of 102,692,305€: 14,521,464€ in the first year, 33,007,064€ in the second and 55,163,777€ in the third. The cost of cost of drug acquisition, the probability of cardiovascular events and the percentage of patients potentially eligible to the treatment were the factor with largest impact on the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of dapagliflozin in GPs setting reduce the number of CVD events, kidney disease progression and healthcare costs in Italy. These data should be considered to optimize the value produced for the T2D patients who had or were at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

The psychosocial impact of haemophilia from patients' and caregivers' point of view: The results of an Italian survey

BACKGROUD

A huge amount of data about psychosocial issues of people with haemophilia (PwH) are available; however, these materials are fragmentary and largely outdated, failing to reflect the impact of current treatment strategies.

AIM

Describing the influence of illness on psychosocial aspects of adult PwH (≥18 years) and caregivers of children with haemophilia (CPwH) without inhibitors, in Italy.

METHODS

Surveys (for adult PwH, CPwH and haemophilia specialists) were developed by a multidisciplinary working group and conducted from November 2019 to June 2020.

RESULTS

A total of 120 PwH without inhibitors and 79 CPwH completed the survey. Adult patients reported a significant impairment in many psychosocial aspects, including working activities, relations with family members and social relations. Caregivers generally reported better scores in all aspects of the survey. Mobility, Pain and Mental health domains of EQ-5D were the most frequently impaired in both patients and caregivers, reducing the perceived quality of life. Genetic counselling was an important issue, 53% of CPwH declaring unawareness of their carrier status, as well as the psychological support offered by the reference center, 67.0% of respondents reporting that no psychological support was provided at the time of diagnosis communication.

CONCLUSION

This study provides information about PwH's and CPwH's point of view in the current scenario of continuous innovations in haemophilia treatment and management furthermore, updated insights on psychosocial problems faced by patients and caregivers are reported.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Intention to Recommend RSV Vaccination: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Cardiologists and Cardiac Nurses in Southern Italy

As respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine distribution gains traction in Europe and Italy, healthcare workers (HCWs) can strategize about vaccine promotion to increase uptake among patients at risk of RSV consequences, such cardiac patients. This cross-sectional survey investigated the knowledge about and attitude towards RSV and RSV vaccines, and the intention to recommend vaccination within a cardiological hospital in Italy. To explore factors associated with the outcomes of interest, multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. Of 197 invited HCWs, 78.2% returned the survey. The knowledge about market authorisation for new RSV vaccines for older adults (present in 46.9% of respondents) was significantly associated with the HCWs' age, education, and previous update on vaccinations. HCWs with a higher educational level and those with a positive attitude towards RSV vaccines safety reported a higher attitude towards the importance of vaccinating people at risk. The willingness of recommending RSV vaccination to patients (70.5% of respondents) was more likely in HCWs who were knowledgeable about market authorisation for RSV vaccines and in physicians. This tempestive research sheds light on current factors influencing the strategies of cardiac HCWs regarding RSV vaccination. The results suggest the need for training events on the protective role of RSV vaccination in cardiac patients.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices Survey of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine among Cardiologists and Cardiac Nurses in Italy

Background and Objectives: Cardiac patients are particularly at risk of herpes zoster (HZ), which is associated with a higher risk of major cardiovascular events. This research aimed to analyze the knowledge, attitudes and practices towards recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) among cardiac healthcare professionals (HPs). Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a cardiological hospital in Italy. Multivariate regression models were built to identify factors associated with the outcomes of interest. Results: The response rate was 78.2% (154/197). Overall, age > 50 years and immunosuppression were recognized as risk factors for HZ by 38.3% and 75.3% of respondents, respectively. Regarding RZV, 29.1% of the HPs correctly responded about its schedule and 57.6% about the possibility of administration in immunocompromised individuals. This knowledge was significantly higher in HPs with a higher educational level (odds ratio (OR) = 4.42; 95%CI 1.70-11.47), in those who knew that HZ could cause postherpetic neuralgia (OR = 2.56; 95%CI 1.05-6.25) or major cardiovascular events (OR = 4.23; 95%CI 1.50-11.91), in those who had participated in professional updates on vaccinations (OR = 3.86; 95%CI 1.51-9.87) and in those who stated the need for further information about the RZV (OR = 6.43; 95%CI 1.42-29.98). Younger HPs (coefficient (β) = -0.02; 95%CI -0.04--0.01), those with a positive attitude toward RZV safety (β = 2.92; 95%CI 2.49-3.36) and those who had previously cared for patients with HZ (β = 0.45; 95%CI 0.03-0.88) reported a more positive attitude toward RZV effectiveness. The practice of recommending vaccination was more prevalent in younger HPs (OR = 0.94; 95%CI 0.89-0.99), in those who had a master's degree or higher education (OR = 7.21; 95%CI 1.44-36.08), in those with more positive attitudes toward RZV effectiveness (OR = 7.17; 95%CI 1.71-30.03) and in HPs who had already recommended the vaccine to patients in the past (OR = 4.03; 95%CI 1.08-14.96). Conclusions: Despite being a single-center study, our research brings attention to factors that currently impact cardiac HPs' approaches to RZV. The findings indicate potential measures to enhance HPs' awareness and practices, ultimately aiming to improve vaccination adherence and reduce the burden associated with HZ.

Treatment patterns in essential tremor: Real-world evidence from a United Kingdom and France primary care database

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Essential tremor (ET) is one of the most common neurological disorders, but information on treatment pattern is still scant. The aim of this study was to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, and determinants of drug use in patients with newly diagnosed ET in France and the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Incident cases of ET diagnosed between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018 with 2 years of follow-up were identified by using The Health Improvement Network (THIN®) general practice database. During the follow-up, we assessed the daily prevalence of use and potential switches from first-line to second-line treatment or other lines of treatment. Logistic regression models were conducted to assess the effect of demographic and clinical characteristics on the likelihood of receiving ET treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 2957 and 3249 patients were selected in the United Kingdom and France, respectively. Among ET patients, drug use increased from 12 months to 1 month prior the date of index diagnosis (ID). After ID, nearly 40% of patients received at least one ET treatment, but during follow-up drug use decreased and at the end of the follow-up approximately 20% of patients were still on treatment. Among treated patients, ≤10% maintained the same treatment throughout the entire follow-up, nearly 20% switched, and 40%-75% interrupted any treatment. Results from the multivariate analysis revealed that, both in France and the United Kingdom, patients receiving multiple concomitant therapies and affected by psychiatric conditions were more likely to receive an ET medication.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that ET is an undertreated disease with a lower-than-expected number of patients receiving and maintaining pharmacological treatment. Misclassification of ET diagnosis should be acknowledged; thus, results require cautious interpretation.

Personalized Prophylaxis with myPKFiTCE: A Real-World Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Haemophilia A Patients

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and costs associated with pharmacokinetics-driven (PK) prophylaxis based on the myPKFiT® device in patients affected by hemophilia A (HA) in Italy. Materials and Methods: An observational retrospective study was conducted in three Italian hemophilia centers. All patients with moderate or severe HA, aged ≥ 18 years, capable of having PK estimated using the myPKFiT device, and who had had a clinical visit between 1 November 2019 and 31 March 2022 were included. Differences in clinical, treatment, health resources, and cost data were assessed comparing post-PK prophylaxis with pre-PK. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as cost (EUR) per bleed avoided. Results: The study enrolled 13 patients with HA. The mean annual bleeding rate decreased by -1.45 (-63.80%, p = 0.0055) after the use of myPKFiT®. Overall, the consumption of FVIII IU increased by 1.73% during follow-up compared to the period prior the use of the myPKFiT. Prophylaxis based on the myPKFiT resulted in an ICER of EUR 5099.89 per bleed avoided. Conclusions: The results of our study support the idea that the use of PK data in clinical practice can be associated with an improvement in the management of patients, as well as clinical outcomes, with a reasonable increase in costs.

A cost-consequence analysis of adding pertuzumab to the neoadjuvant combination therapy in HER2-positive high-risk early breast cancer in Italy

INTRODUCTION

Clinical trials confirmed the beneficial effects of adding pertuzumab (P) to the combination of trastuzumab-chemotherapy (TC) in the (neo)adjuvant setting of high-risk HER2-positive early breast cancer (HER2+BC). We evaluated the clinical, economic and societal impact of adding pertuzumab to neoadjuvant TC combination (TPC) in Italy.

METHODS

A cost-consequence analysis comparing TPC vs. TC was performed developing a cohort-based multi-state Markov model to estimate the clinical, societal and economic impact of the neoadjuvant therapy of TPC versus TC in HER2+BC at high-risk of recurrence. The model works on a cycle length of 1 month and 5-years-time horizon. Literature review-based data were used to populate the model. The following clinical and economic outcomes were estimated: cumulative incidence of loco-regional/distant recurrences, life of years and QALY and both direct and indirect costs (€). Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

TPC was associated with a 75,630 € saved of direct costs. Specifically, it was associated with an initial increase of treatment costs (+4.8%) followed by reduction of recurrence management cost (-20.4%). TPC was also associated with an indirect cost reduction of 1.40%, as well as decreased incidence of distant recurrence (-20.14%), days of work lost (-1.53%) and days lived with disability (-0.50%). Furthermore, TPC reported 10,47 QALY gained (+2.77%) compared to TC. The probability to achieve the pathological complete response (pCR) was the parameter that mostly affected the results in the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggested that TPC combination could be a cost-saving option in patients with HER2+BC at high-risk of recurrence.

Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]).

INTERPRETATION

Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A Cross-Indication Budget Impact Model of Secukinumab for the Treatment of Psoriasis, Psoriatic Arthritis, Ankylosing Spondylitis and Non-radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis in Italy

BACKGROUND

Recent developments improved outcomes in patients with autoimmune diseases. Biologics were approved as first-line treatment in selected naïve patients with plaque psoriasis (PsO), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). Among them, secukinumab was most recently approved for treatment of active nr-axSpA in adults. In this work, we assessed the budget impact of new secukinumab treatment options in the Italian market.

METHODS

A cross-indication budget impact model was designed to estimate the effects of adding secukinumab in the Italian market from the National Health System perspective over a 3-year period. The model included all adults with PsO, PsA, AS and nr-axSpA, treated with biologics or biosimilars. It compared costs between two scenarios, secukinumab availability or absence, for the four diseases combined and taken individually. A sensitivity analyses was conducted.

RESULTS

There were 68,121 adult patients treated with biologics in 2021 and 68,341 in 2023. The budget impact analysis (BIA) on all indications showed a cost reduction of €33.7 million (- 1.5%) over 3 years with the introduction of secukinumab. PsA patients had the highest saving (- €34.9 million), followed by PsO patients (- €7.8 million). Cost saving in PsO patients was balanced by increased budget reported in AS patients (+ €8.0 million). In nr-axSpA patients, secukinumab reported no significant budget increase (+ 1.0%).

CONCLUSION

This BIA accounted for the new indication of secukinumab in nr-axSpA patients, reporting no significant changes in the required budget and adding an effective treatment option. Considering all indications, secukinumab is a sustainable treatment option.

Abstract P6-08-01: A cost-consequence analysis of pertuzumab in the neoadjuvant treatment of high-risk HER2+ Early-Stage Breast Cancer (EBC): health-economic considerations for drug availability in Italy

Introduction: Neoadjuvant pertuzumab+trastuzumab+chemotherapy (TPC) combo is a well established treatment for HER2+ high-risk (EBC) as recommended by International and National guidelines. However, notwithstanding EMA approval, in some European countries (i.e Italy and France) pertuzumab drug-access is prevented by the NHS decision not to reimburse the drug in a value-driven sustainability balance. This study aims to estimate the cost and consequences of TPC vs. the same combo w/o pertuzumab (TC) in the neaodjuvant treatment of high-risk HER2+ eBC to better understand the value of TPC regimen.

Methods: With a Markov model, we simulated the costs and consequences associated to TPC or TC neoadjuvant treatments, using 5 years time horizon and Italian Lombardy region Health System point of view. The model includes nine health states: Neoadjuvant treatment; Surgery; Invasive disease-free Survival (IDFS) with pathological complete response (pCR), IDFS with residual disease (RD), non-metastatic recurrence, remission, first-line treatment and subsequent-lines for metastatic cancer, and death. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from relevant clinical trials and literature. For each neoadjuvant treatment, the model estimates: direct (drug, administration, hospitalization, disease management), indirect (patients’ loss of productivity), total costs and different outcomes, as cumulative incidence of metastatic recurrence, days of work lost, days with activity impairment, IDFS life years, and quality adjusted life years (QALY). Costs and outcomes were estimated per 100-treated patients. An alternative scenario analysis with a 10-year time horizon and a deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of model time horizon and parameters value.

Results: The estimated costs and outcomes for TPC and TC are reported in Table 1. TPC produces a total direct cost reduction of €75,630 per 100-treated patients, a small increase of TPC neoadjuvant treatment costs (+4.8%) is offset by the lower cost of metastatic treatment and management (-20.4%). Considering also the indirect costs, TPC is associated to a cost reduction of €124,956 per 100-treated patients. The cost saving is associated to a reduction of 5-year cumulative incidence metastatic recurrence (8.32% vs 10.42%, -20.14%), a reduction of days of work loss (-548 days) and days with activity impairment (-283 days) and a 10.5 QALY gained per 100-treated patients. Using a 10-year time horizon, the value of TPC compared to TC increases. Probabilities of pCR with TPC and TC were the parameter with the higher impact on model results.

Conclusion: Use of TC instead of TPC in high-risk HER2+ EBC derives a marginal savings (4.8%) according to the first year of our cost-consequence analysis. However, this negligible savings comes with the need for a heavily and long-lasting adjuvant cytotoxic therapy escalation because of a lower clinical activity of TC vs TPC. Moreover, according to medium-term cost-consequence analysis (5 years) the early negligible savings is overwhelmed by the subsequent increase in costs for the patients’ management, because of the lower clinical efficacy of TC vs. TPC. In Italy, the lack of pertuzumab in the neoadjuvant setting of high-risk HER2+ eBC is questionable; our results support the opportunity to reconsider the pertuzumab availability in Italy and reduce inequalities within Europe.

Cost and consequences of neoadjuvant treatments for high-risk HER2-Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer: trastuzuamb+pertuzumab+chemotheraphy (TPC) vs trastuzumab+chemotheraphy (TC) IDFS, Invasive disease-free Survival; QALY, quality adjusted life years.

Citation Format: Alberto Zambelli, Marina Elena Cazzaniga, Nicla La Verde, Elisabetta Munzone, Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo, Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani, Anna Mancuso, Daniele G. Generali, Paolo Angelo Cortesi. A cost-consequence analysis of pertuzumab in the neoadjuvant treatment of high-risk HER2+ Early-Stage Breast Cancer (EBC): health-economic considerations for drug availability in Italy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-08-01.

Statins Use in Patients with Cardiovascular Diseases and COVID-19 Outcomes: An Italian Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The role of statins among patients with established cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) who are hospitalized with COVID-19 is still debated. This study aimed at assessing whether the prior use of statins was associated with a less severe COVID-19 prognosis.

METHODS

Subjects with CVDs infected with SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized between 20 February 2020 and 31 December 2020 were selected. These were classified into two mutually exclusive groups: statins-users and non-users of lipid-lowering therapies (non-LLT users). The relationship between statins exposure and the risk of Mechanical Ventilation (MV), Intensive Care Unit (ICU) access and death were evaluated by using logistic and Cox regressions models.

RESULTS

Of 1127 selected patients, 571 were statins-users whereas 556 were non-LLT users. The previous use of statins was not associated with a variation in the risk of need of MV (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.00; 95% Confidence Intervals [CI]: 0.38-2.67), ICU access (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.22-1.32) and mortality at 14 days (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.16-1.10). However, a decreased risk of mortality at 30 days (HR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.18-0.85) was observed in statins-users compared with non-LLT users.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the clinical advice for patients CVDs to continue their treatment with statins during SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Time trends in the incidence of essential tremor: Evidences from UK and France primary care data

Introduction

Although essential tremor (ET) is considered a common adult movement disorder, evidence on its incidence is still scant. This study aims at estimating ET incidence in two European countries, namely, the UK and France.

Methods

Incident cases of ET were identified within the Health Improvement Network (THIN®) database between 1st January 2014 and 31 December 2019. Yearly crude and standardized incidence rates (IR) were estimated across the study period for both countries. Poisson regression models were built to assess temporal trends in IRs and differences between sexes and age classes.

Results

In total, 4,970 and 4,905 incident cases of ET were identified in the UK and France, respectively. The yearly average crude IR (per 100,000 person-years) was 18.20 (95%CI: 15.09-21.32) in UK and 21.42 (17.83-25.00) in France, whereas standardized ones were 19.51 (18.97-20.01) and 19.50 (18.97-20.05). Regression analyses showed slightly increasing trends in both countries, higher incidence among males, and a significant increase with age. Yearly average IR increased from 3.96 (0.95-6.97) and 5.28 (1.12-9.44) in subjects aged <20 years to 49.27 (26.29-72.24) and 51.52 (30.19-72.86) in those aged >80 year in UK and France.

Conclusions

Standardized ET incidence was comparable in the UK and France, showing a slight increase in both countries, reporting a higher value among people aged 60 years and older. This study outlines the need to conduct future studies to estimate the burden of ET in terms of disease control and healthcare resource utilization.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of siponimod in the treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in Italy

Background

Siponimod is an effective treatment for patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), with active disease evidenced by relapses or imaging features characteristic of multiple sclerosis inflammatory activity, however there is a need to evaluate its economic value and sustainability compared to other disease modifying-therapies (DMTs).

Objective

To estimate the siponimod cost-effectiveness profile and its relative budget impact compared with other DMTs, by using the Italian National Healthcare System perspective.

Methods

We performed: 1) a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) vs interferon beta-1b using an analytical Markov model and a life time-horizon, and 2) a budget impact analysis by using 3-years time-horizon. The results were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net-monetary benefit (NMB) for CEA, using a willingness to pay threshold of €40,000 per QALY gained, and as difference in the overall budget (Euro) between the scenario with and without siponimod for budget impact.

Results

In the base case scenario siponimod resulted cost-effective compared with interferon beta-1b 28,891€ per QALY. Overall, the market access of siponimod was associated to an increased budget of about 3€ millions (+0.9%) in the next 3 years simulated.

Conclusion

Compared to interferon beta-1b, siponimod seems to be cost-effective in SPMS patients and sustainable, with less than 1% overall budget increased in the next 3 years. Future studies need to confirm our results in the real word setting and in other countries.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does smoking have an impact on the immunological response to COVID-19 vaccines? Evidence from the VASCO study and need for further studies

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible impact of smoking on the humoral response to the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (also known as the BioNTech-Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine).

STUDY DESIGN

A longitudinal sero-epidemiological study was conducted in sample of Italian healthcare workers (HCWs).

METHODS

HCWs who were administered two doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, 21 days apart, between December 2020 and January 2021, were invited to undergo multiple serology tests to identify SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Participants also responded to questions about their smoking status (i.e. current smokers vs non-smokers) in a survey.

RESULTS

Sixty days after the completion of the vaccination cycle, serological analyses showed a difference in vaccine-induced IgG titre between current smokers and non-smokers, with median antibody titres of 211.80 AU/mL (interquartile range [IQR] 149.80-465.50) and 487.50 AU/mL (IQR 308.45-791.65) [P-value = 0.002], respectively. This significant difference in vaccine-induced IgG titres between current smokers and non-smokers remained after adjusting for age, sex, and previous infection with SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSIONS

This study observed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decrease faster among current smokers than non-smokers. Further research to investigate the impact of smoking on the immunological response to COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 vaccines is required.

Overview of the EU PAS register post-authorization studies performed in Europe from September 2010 to December 2018

BACKGROUND

The European post-authorisation study (EU PAS) register is a repository launched in 2010 by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). All EMA-requested PAS, commonly observational studies, must be recorded in this register. Multi-database studies (MDS) leveraging secondary data have become an important strategy to conduct PAS in recent years, as reflected by the type of studies registered in the EU PAS register.

OBJECTIVES

To analyse and describe PAS in the EU PAS register, with focus on MDS.

METHODS

Studies in the EU PAS register from inception to 31^st December 2018 were described concerning transparency, regulatory obligations, scope, study type (e.g. observational study, clinical trial, survey, systematic review/meta-analysis), study design, type of data collection and target population. MDS were defined as studies conducted through secondary use of >1 data source not linked at patient-level. Data extraction was carried out independently by 14 centres with expertise in pharmacoepidemiology, using publicly available information in the EU PAS register including study protocol, whenever available, using a standardised data collection form. For validation purposes, a second revision of key fields for a 15% random sample of studies was carried out by a different centre. The inter-rater reliability (IRR) was then calculated. Finally, to identify predictors of primary data collection-based studies /vs those based on secondary use of healthcare databases) or MDS (vs. non-MDS), odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated fitting univariate logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 1,426 studies were identified. Clinical trials (N=30; 2%), systematic reviews/meta-analyses (N=16; 1%) and miscellaneous study designs (N=46; 3%) were much less common than observational studies (N=1,227; 86%). The protocol was available for 63% (N=360) of 572 observational studies requested by a competent authority. Overall, 36% (N=446) of observational studies were based fully or partially on primary data collection. Of 757 observational studies based on secondary use of data alone, 282 (37%) were MDS. Drug utilisation was significantly more common as a study scope in MDS compared to non-MDS studies. The overall percentage agreement among collaborating centres that collected the data concerning study variables was highest for study type (93.5%) and lowest for type of secondary data (67.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Observational studies were the most common type of studies in the EU PAS register, but 30% used primary data, which is more resource-intensive. Almost half of observational studies using secondary data were MDS. Data recording in the EU PAS register may be improved further, including more widespread availability of study protocols to improve transparency.

Antidepressants Drug Use during COVID-19 Waves in the Tuscan General Population: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

In Italy, during the COVID-19 waves two lockdowns were implemented to prevent virus diffusion in the general population. Data on antidepressant (AD) use in these periods are still scarce. This study aimed at exploring the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on prevalence and incidence of antidepressant drug use in the general population. A population-based study using the healthcare administrative database of Tuscany was performed. We selected a dynamic cohort of subjects with at least one ADs dispensing from 1 January 2018 to 27 December 2020. The weekly prevalence and incidence of drug use were estimated across different segments: pre-lockdown (1 January 2018–8 March 2020), first lockdown (9 March 2020–15 June 2020), post-first lockdown (16 June 2020–15 November 2020) and second lockdown (16 November 2020–27 December 2020). An interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess the effect of lockdowns on the observed outcomes. Compared to the pre-lockdown we observed an abrupt reduction of ADs incidence (Incidence-Ratio: 0.82; 95% Confidence-Intervals: 0.74–0.91) and a slight weekly decrease of prevalence (Prevalence-Ratio: 0.997; 0.996–0.999). During the post-first lockdown AD use increased, with higher incidence- and similar prevalence values compared with those expected in the absence of the outbreak. This pandemic has impacted AD drug use in the general population with potential rebound effects during the period between waves. This calls for future studies aimed at exploring the mid–long term effects of this phenomenon.

Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown, during the Two Waves, on Drug Use and Emergency Department Access in People with Epilepsy: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy implemented two national lockdowns aimed at reducing virus transmission. We assessed whether these lockdowns affected anti-seizure medication (ASM) use and epilepsy-related access to emergency departments (ED) in the general population.

METHODS

We performed a population-based study using the healthcare administrative database of Tuscany. We defined the weekly time series of prevalence and incidence of ASM, along with the incidence of epilepsy-related ED access from 1 January 2018 to 27 December 2020 in the general population. An interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess the effect of lockdowns on the observed outcomes.

RESULTS

Compared to pre-lockdown, we observed a relevant reduction of ASM incidence (0.65; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.59-0.72) and ED access (0.72; 0.64-0.82), and a slight decrease of ASM prevalence (0.95; 0.94-0.96). During the post-lockdown the ASM incidence reported higher values compared to pre-lockdown, whereas ASM prevalence and ED access remained lower. Results also indicate a lower impact of the second lockdown for both ASM prevalence (0.97; 0.96-0.98) and incidence (0.89; 0.80-0.99).

CONCLUSION

The lockdowns implemented during the COVID-19 outbreaks significantly affected ASM use and epilepsy-related ED access. The potential consequences of these phenomenon are still unknown, although an increased incidence of epilepsy-related symptoms after the first lockdown has been observed. These findings emphasize the need of ensuring continuous care of epileptic patients in stressful conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Use of antidepressants during COVID19 outbreak: a real-world drug-utilization study

Background

Lockdown measures implementation (LMI) to prevent COVID19 disease diffusion was associated to increased depression and anxiety cases. The main aim was to evaluate whether LMI affected prevalence and incidence of antidepressants (ADs) use, and ADs treatment interruption (TI) in the general population.

Methods

Adults (≥18 years) with at least 1 dispensing of ADs between 01/01/2019-26/09/2020 were selected from a regional Italian healthcare administrative database. Patients presenting an AD dispensing in the year preceding the first observation were considered as prevalent otherwise as incident users. We divided the studied period into 3 parts: pre-lockdown (01/01/2019-08/03/2020), lockdown (09/03/2020-14/06/2020) and post-lockdown (15/06/2020-27/09/2020). The weekly prevalence (WP) and incidence (WI) per 10,000 inhabitants were compared among periods. Incidence of TI (no dispensing refill within 30 days of the end of its validity) was computed among prevalent AD users.

Results

The WP (mean of 552.3 per 10,000 pre-lockdown vs 505.5 lockdown phase; relative change: -9%) and WI (5.2 vs 3.7; -29%) of ADs use decreased after LMI. During the post-lockdown phase WP (505.5 vs 495.9; -2%) decreased whereas the WI (3.7 vs 4.3; 16%) slightly increased in relation to the lockdown period, although differences were not statistically significant. Conversely, the incidence of TI increased during lockdown (344.7 vs 384.3; 12%) and post-lockdown (384.3 vs 394.2; 3%) periods, even not always statistically significant.

Conclusions

Our analysis showed a reduction of ADs use during the early phase of lockdown. Several factors might have impacted on the observed phenomenon (i.e, patient reluctance to start new AD treatment). Considering the mutation of the virus and the potential waves that might occur in the next months, a continuous monitoring of the impact of COVID19 on mental diseases onset and treatment adherence are suggested.

Key messages

In Italy, the implementation of lockdown measures was followed by a reduction in antidepressants use, even though evidences are that diagnoses of psychiatric disorders increased.

Future studies should monitor if these phenomena led to an increase in adverse events potentially correlated with inappropriate treatment of depression.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing intravitreal anti-VEGF drug safety using real-world data: methodological challenges in observational research

INTRODUCTION

It is generally acknowledged that the ocular safety profile of intravitreal anti-VEGF drugs is acceptable, while the burden of systemic safety of these intravitreal agents is still being debated. The evaluation of the systemic safety of these drugs using real-world data (RWD), such as spontaneous reporting systems (SRS), electronic medical records (EMRs) and claims databases has several advantages, including the capture of outcomes among real-world populations over long observation periods. Nevertheless, there is a relatively small body of research exploring the post-marketing safety of these drugs.

AREAS COVERED

The aim of this scoping review is to outline and discuss some of the methodological challenges to be faced when investigating the systemic safety of intravitreal anti-VEGF drugs using different sources of RWD.

EXPERT OPINION

Such challenges include the selection of the most suitable data source, taking into account how well drug utilization is captured and whether the outcomes and covariates of interest can be captured. The strengths and limitations of some analytic methods that can be used to quantify risk, such as the intention-to-treat approach and the as-treated approach, complement each other, and using these together provides a more balanced analysis.

Antibiotic Use and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Nested Case-Control Study in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy

INTRODUCTION

Known risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS) include smoking, a low vitamin D status, obesity, and EBV, while the inflammatory feature of the disease strongly suggests the presence of additional infectious agents. The association between use of antibiotics and MS risk that could shed light on these factors is still undetermined. We aimed to evaluate the association between antibiotics and MS risk, in the Emilia-Romagna region (RER), Italy.

METHODS

All adult patients with MS seen at any RER MS center (2015-2017) were eligible. For each of the 877 patients included, clinical information was collected and matched to 5 controls (RER residents) (n = 4,205) based on age, sex, place of residence, and index year. Information on antibiotic prescription was obtained through the linkage with the RER drug prescription database.

RESULTS

Exposure to any antibiotic 3 years prior to the index year was associated with an increased MS risk (OR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.29-1.79). Similar results were found for different classes. No dose-response effect was found.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest an association between the use of antibiotics and MS risk in RER population. However, further epidemiological studies should be done with information on early life and lifestyle factors.

Comparing the Prevalence of Polypharmacy and Potential Drug-Drug Interactions in Nursing Homes and in the Community Dwelling Elderly of Emilia Romagna Region

Backround: We aimed at assessing the prevalence of polypharmacy and potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) with clinical relevance in elderly patient on Emilia Romagna area. Both outpatients and residents in nursing homes were assessed, with only partially overlapping strategies.

Methods: We defined a list of 190 pairs of potentially interacting drugs, based on literature appraisal and availability of therapeutic alternatives. January-June 2018 data on drug use in patients over 65 years-old were collected from nine Local Health Authorities of Emilia Romagna: data on community-dwelling subjects were extracted from archives of reimbursed prescriptions, while drug use in a sample of nursing homes was recorded from clinical charts in one index day within the same semester. The frequency of polypharmacy (at least five or at least 10 concurrent drugs) and of each DDI was calculated.

Results: In line with different rates of polypharmacy (80% vs 16%), the risk of exposure to at least one interaction was 53.7% in nursing homes and 26.4% in outpatients. Among DDIs, in nursing homes antidepressants—anxiolytics (11.9%) ranked first, followed by antidepressants—aspirin (7.4%). In outpatients, ACE-inhibitors—non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reached 7.2% followed by the calcium channel blockers—α-blockers (2.4%).

Discussion: Polypharmacy and risk of DDIs appeared very different in the two settings, due to both technical and clinical reasons. In order to reduce use of benzodiazepines, NSAIDs, antidepressants and relevant DDIs, 1) defining alternative options for pain relief in elderly outpatients, and 2) implementing non-pharmacological management of insomnia and anxiety in nursing homes should be prioritized.

Costs and effects of cardiovascular risk reclassification using the ankle-brachial index (ABI) in addition to the Framingham risk scoring in women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ankle brachial index (ABI) is a simple and cheap parameter to assess the presence of atherosclerosis. It could also help correctly reclassify the cardiovascular risk when added to the Framingham risk score (FRS). Recent evidence has demonstrated improvement in prediction performance of ABI when added to FRS, particularly in women. However, no studies have been published yet evaluating the cost-effectiveness of this approach. This study attempts to fill in this gap by assessing the cost-effectiveness of ABI measurements in primary prevention in women.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model to compare two different strategies for assessing the cardiovascular risk (low, intermediate and high) among women in the general population: 1) FRS strategy, and 2) FRS + ABI strategy; and the relative impact associated with interventions for preventing CV events in intermediate and high-risk categories.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, FRS + ABI reported an additional cost of € 110 and a gain of 0.0039 QALYs per patient, resulting in an ICER of € 27.986/QALY, when compared to FRS alone. The ICER improved to €1.641/QALY when using a lifetime horizon. The effectiveness of preventive CV disease interventions reported also a significant impact. A 32% reduction of CV events was the minimum value estimated to maintain FRS + ABI as a cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of ABI to FRS is a cost-effective approach in women classified at low and intermediate risk with FRS only. This new approach gives the possibility to reclassify and allocate them into the appropriate risk group and treatment.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Post-stroke epilepsy and mortality: an observational study on healthcare administrative database

Background

Post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) has been associated with hospitalization and increased mortality risk. So far, evidence on PSE and mortality risk is lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the association between PSE and mortality in different type of stroke.

Methods

A retrospective observational study was conducted using healthcare administrative databases of Lombardy, a northern Italian region (16.4% of the Italian population). Patients aged 40 years or older admitted to the hospital between 1/1/2004 and 31/12/2008 with diagnosis of hemorrhagic (HS)- or ischemic (IS)- stroke were included. Diagnosis of seizure/epilepsy was identified by using discharge ICD9-CM codes, exemption code or use of antiepileptic drugs. This date was considered the index date. For each stroke cohort case of PSE was matched with 2 non post-stroke epileptic (PNS) individuals. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between PSE and PSN among the stroke cohorts. Cox proportional regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of mortality.

Results

In the observed period, 13,749 of patients (4,583 PSE Vs 9,166 PSN) had IS and 4,875 (1,625 PSE Vs 3,250 PNS) had HS. Individuals were ≥75-year-old with no difference among cohorts (p value &gt;0.9). Similarly, no differences were observed for gender (p = 1.00) and Charlson'comorbidity index (p = 1.00). Early seizure occurred in 15% of ischemic cohort and 20% of hemorrhagic one. Differences in antithrombotic drug use were observed among PSE and PSN in IS (p = 0.009) and HS cohort (p = 0.03). In ischemic cohort PSE was positively associated with increased mortality risk (HRadj: 1.67; 95%CI: 1.57-1.79), whereas no significant result was observed in hemorrhagic cohort (1.06; 0.94-1.20).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated a twofold increased risk of mortality in IS cohort. Further studies need to deeply characterize possible association between PSE and mortality in HS individuals.

Key messages

Occurrence of seizure/epilepsy in ischemic post-stroke patients represents a risk factor for morality. New studies need to clarify the contrasting result observed for hemorrhagic PSE patients.

Assessment of adverse reactions to α-lipoic acid containing dietary supplements through spontaneous reporting systems

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alpha-lipoic acid (ALA)-containing dietary supplements are widely used in clinical practice, although their safety assessment is under-investigated. We characterize the safety profile of ALA-containing products by analysing spontaneous reports of suspected adverse reactions (ARs).

METHODS

Suspected ARs to ALA-containing products were extracted from the Italian Phytovigilance System (IPS), and scrutinized in terms of seriousness and causality (through WHO UMC system), with a specific focus on important (IMEs) and designated medical events (DMEs). To characterize the reporting profile from an international perspective, the WHO-VigiBase was also queried.

RESULTS

From March 2002 to February 2020, out of 2147 total reports, 116 reports concerning 212 ARs to ALA-containing products were collected. Women were involved in 68.1% of cases. Skin (44.9%) and gastrointestinal disorders (10.8%) were the most frequently represented ARs. Causality assessment resulted as definite (15), probable (35), possible (24), unlikely (5), and unclassifiable (37). In 70% of cases, events occurred within 30 days of ALA use. Forty-five reports were serious (38.8%), being insulin autoimmune syndrome the most frequently reported (N = 10). IMEs were recorded in 20 cases, including four DMEs (3 angioedema and one anaphylactic shock). Similar distribution emerged from the 5641 reports in the WHO-VigiBase.

CONCLUSIONS

The remarkable reporting of unpredictable skin, immune and hepatic ARs, coupled with seriousness, strong causality and early onset, calls for a) careful risk-benefit assessment of ALA-containing products by regulators; b) awareness and monitoring by clinicians and c) continuous vigilance of their safety profile through valuable spontaneous reporting systems such as IPS.

Adverse events with sacubitril/valsartan in the real world: emerging signals to target preventive strategies from the FDA adverse event reporting system

Aims

The aim of this study was to characterise clinical priority of adverse events with sacubitril/valsartan for targeting preventive measures.

Methods

We used the US Food and Drug Administration adverse event reporting system (worldwide pharmacovigilance database) to compare adverse events recording sacubitril/valsartan as suspect with other cardiovascular drugs. Disproportionality analyses were performed by calculating the reporting odds ratios, deemed significant when the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval was greater than 1. Clinical priority was assigned to adverse events with significant disproportionality by scoring (range 0–10 points) five features (number of events, magnitude of the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval, mortality frequency, important/designated medical event, biological plausibility).

Results

Sacubitril/valsartan was recorded in 20,021 reports, with 178 adverse events associated with significant disproportionality: 71.9%, 25.9% and 2.2% were classified as weak, moderate and strong clinical priorities, respectively. Increased reporting emerged for several cardiovascular adverse events, including ‘renal failure’ (N = 388; lower limit of the 95% confidence interval 2.26), ‘hyperkalaemia’ (314; 2.42) and ‘angioedema’ (309; 1.56). Sudden cardiac death (priority score 9 points) was the only designated medical event with strong clinical priority. Notably, sudden cardiac death occurred early after sacubitril/valsartan administration (average onset 124 days), with concomitant drugs known for pro-arrhythmic potential (e.g. amiodarone, escitalopram, mirtazapine, loop diuretics) in 26.2% of records.

Conclusion

The increased cardiovascular reporting of sacubitril/valsartan in the real world was largely predictable from pre-approval evidence, underlying disease and likely patients’ comorbidities. The unexpected reporting of sudden cardiac death occurred well before the complete development of positive electrical remodelling induced by sacubitril/valsartan, and calls for stringent clinical monitoring (to reduce the pro-arrhythmic burden related to co-medications), and further investigation on appropriate combination with other preventive measures.

Myopathy with DPP-4 inhibitors and statins in the real world: investigating the likelihood of drug-drug interactions through the FDA adverse event reporting system

AIMS

To investigate the occurrence of myopathy with oral glucose-lowering drugs (OGLDs) and statins, with a focus on dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4-is).

METHODS

The FDA adverse event reporting system (FAERS) was queried (2004-2016) to compare the proportion of adverse events with OGLDs, alone and in combination with statins, using the reporting odds ratio (ROR) with relevant 95% confidence interval (95%Cl), adjusted for sex, age and concomitant presence of other OGLDs/lipid-lowering drugs. Drug-drug interaction is claimed whenever the frequency of an event is enhanced by combination treatment. Consistency/robustness of findings was tested by applying additive/multiplicative models and accounting for competition bias (i.e., adverse events previously known to be associated with OGLDs were removed).

RESULTS

Over a 13-year period, we retrieved 142,888 cases of myopathy. The use of DPP4-is alone was not associated with higher reporting of myopathy (no. of cases = 4898; adjusted ROR = 1.00; 95%CI = 0.96-1.04), with the notable exclusion of vildagliptin (262; 1.64; 1.42-1.88). No increased occurrence emerged when used in combination with statins, with consistent findings from additive/multiplicative models for all DPP4-is. Likewise, no increased reporting was found for other OGLDs (28,964; 0.64; 0.62-0.67); data on the interaction with statins were consistent/robust across analyses only for sulfonylureas (the interaction is likely and biologically plausible) and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world FAERS data do not raise concern for muscular toxicity with DPP4-is in combination with statins, making a drug interaction very unlikely.

Prevalence and Determinants of Long-Term Utilization of Antidepressant Drugs: A Retrospective Cohort Study

PURPOSE

Antidepressant consumption has risen in recent years, driven by longer treatment duration. The objective of this study was to measure the prevalence of antidepressant long-term and chronic use in the Bologna area, Italy, and to identify their main determinants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective claims-based cohort study by using the Bologna Local Health Authority data. A cohort of 18,307 incident users of antidepressant drugs in 2013 was selected, and subjects were followed for three years. A long-term utilization was defined as having at least one prescription claimed during each year of follow-up, while chronic utilization was defined as claiming at least 180 defined daily doses per year. Factors associated with chronic and long-term use were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regressions.

RESULTS

In our cohort, 5448 (29.8%) and 1817 (9.9%) subjects were dispensed antidepressants for a long-term course and in a chronically way, respectively. Older age, antidepressant polytherapy, polypharmacy, and being prescribed the first antidepressant by a hospital physician were all factors independently associated with chronic and long-term prescriptions of antidepressant drugs. Results were reported separately for men and women.

CONCLUSION

Antidepressant long-term and chronic prescriptions are common in the Bologna area. Because longer treatment should be clinically motivated, these results strongly prompt the need to evaluate the actual relevance, as they may indicate potentially inappropriate prescription patterns.

Serious Cutaneous Toxicities with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System

Cutaneous toxicities frequently occurred with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), although clinical and pharmacological features are incompletely characterized. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System was queried to describe ICI-related cutaneous toxicities, focusing on severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCARs): Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (SJS), toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), and drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) syndrome. As compared with other anticancer drugs, a higher proportion of death (11.3% vs. 8.7%) and serious reports (42.7% vs. 34.6%) emerged for ICIs (p < .05). A higher frequency of coreported allopurinol and antiepileptics was recorded among 2,525 total SCARs (17% vs. 10%, ICIs and anticancer agents, respectively; p < .05). Mean times to onset were 47, 48, and 40 days (SJS, TEN, and DRESS, respectively), with comparable mean latency between monotherapy and combination regimens (41 days). This immune-related pattern advocates for long-lasting monitoring by oncologists and dermatologists.

Long-acting injectable antipsychotics: Six-month follow-up of new outpatient treatments in Bologna Community Mental Health Centres

Purpose

This study aims to describe factors associated to treatment continuity and psychiatric relapses in patients treated with Long Acting Injectable antipsychotics (LAIs) in Bologna Community Mental Health Centers (CMHCs).

Methods

New LAI treatments administered between July 1, 2010 and June 30, 2015 in CMHCs were selected. The cohort was followed-up for 6 months; predictors of continuity and psychiatric admissions were investigated by using logistic regression- and Cox- analysis respectively.

Results

Among the cohort of 1 070 patients, only 222 (21%) continued LAI treatment during the follow-up. LAI continuity was higher with first generation agents (OR: 1.71, 95%CI 1.18–2.49) and in case of previous psychiatric hospitalizations (OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.47–2.74). Incidence of psychiatric hospital admissions showed a sharp reduction in the follow-up compared with 6-month period before initiation (from 458 to 212), and was associated with previous psychiatric hospitalizations (HR 3.20, 95%CI 2.22–4.59), immigration (HR 3.13, 95%CI 1.28–7.69) and LAI discontinuation (HR 1.14, 95%Cl 1.01–1.97).

Conclusions

Psychiatric hospital admission before LAI initiation was the main predictor both of LAI continuity and hospitalization during the follow-up.

Liver injury with drugs used for multiple sclerosis: A contemporary analysis of the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System

Background:

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has been observed in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), raising concerns on the liver safety of MS drugs.

Objective:

To describe DILI events with MS drugs by analyzing the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System.

Methods:

DILI reports were extracted and classified in overall liver injury (OLI), including asymptomatic elevation of liver enzymes, and severe liver injury (SLI). We performed disproportionality analysis by calculating adjusted reporting odds ratios (RORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and case-by-case evaluation for concomitant drugs with hepatotoxic potential.

Results:

Fampridine showed statistically significant ROR for both OLI and SLI, whereas teriflunomide and fingolimod generated solid disproportionality (ROR > 2) only for OLI (ROR, 2.31; 95% CI, 2.12–2.52; and 2.53; 2.40–2.66, respectively). Among monoclonal antibodies, only alemtuzumab generated higher-than-expected ROR for OLI (1.34; 1.09–1.65). We also detected the expected hepatotoxic potential of beta interferon and mitoxantrone. Concomitant reporting of hepatotoxic drugs ranged from 26% (dimethyl fumarate) to 90% (mitoxantrone).

Conclusion:

These real-world pharmacovigilance findings suggest that DILI might be a common feature of MS drugs and call for (1) formal population-based study to verify the risk of fampridine and (2) awareness by clinicians, who should assess the possible responsibility of MS drugs when they diagnose DILI.

Human papillomavirus vaccine and demyelinating diseases-A systematic review and meta-analysis

Approved in 2006, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were initially targeted for girls aged 9-14 years. Although the safety of these vaccines has been monitored through post-licensure surveillance programmes, cases of neurological events have been reported worldwide. The present study aimed to assess the risk of developing demyelination after HPV immunization by meta-analysing risk estimates from pharmacoepidemiologic studies. A systematic review was conducted in Medline, Embase, ISI Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception to 10 May 2017, without language restriction. Only observational studies including a control group were retained. Study selection was performed by two independent reviewers with disagreements solved through discussion. This meta-analysis was performed using a generic inverse variance random-effect model. Outcomes of interest included a broad category of central demyelination, multiple sclerosis (MS), optic neuritis (ON), and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), each being considered independently. Heterogeneity was investigated; sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed when necessary. In parallel, post-licensure safety studies were considered for a qualitative review. This study followed the PRISMA statement and the MOOSE reporting guideline. Of the 2,863 references identified, 11 articles were selected for meta-analysis. No significant association emerged between HPV vaccination and central demyelination, the pooled odds ratio being 0.96 [95% CI 0.77-1.20], with a moderate but non-significant heterogeneity (I² = 29%). Similar results were found for MS and ON. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our conclusions. Findings from qualitative review of 14 safety studies concluded in an absence of a relevant signal. Owing to limited data on GBS, no meta-analysis was performed for this outcome. This study strongly supports the absence of association between HPV vaccines and central demyelination.

Diabetes is associated with decreased migraine risk: A nationwide cohort study

Background Results from studies on diabetes and migraine risk are conflicting, which may be due to methodological limitations. Prospective studies with long follow-up could increase our understanding of the relationship between the two diseases. Method We performed a cohort study including the whole Norwegian population alive on 01.01.2004, using prescriptions registered in the Norwegian prescription database to identify individuals developing type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and migraine during follow-up (10 years). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate rate ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the effect of diabetes on migraine risk, adjusting for age, sex, and educational level. Result We identified 7,883 type 1 diabetes patients and 93,600 type 2 patients during the study period. Type 1 diabetes was significantly associated with a subsequent decreased migraine risk during follow-up in the age- and sex-adjusted analyses (0.74; 0.61-0.89). Type 2 diabetes was also associated with a significantly lower migraine risk (0.89; 0.83-0.95). Further adjustment for educational level yielded similar results for both diabetes. Conclusion Both type 1 and type 2 diabetes were significantly associated with a decreased risk of migraine. This suggests that diabetes or diabetes treatment may have a protective effect on the development of migraine.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and heart failure: Analysis of spontaneous reports submitted to the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We tested the possible association between dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4-I) use and heart failure (HF) occurrence by assessing the publicly available US-FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS).

METHODS

FAERS data reporting HF and DPP-4-Is use in the period from the fourth quarter of 2006 through 2013 were extracted, using the Standardized MedDRA Query "Cardiac failure". Disproportionality (case/non-case method) was implemented by calculating Reporting Odds Ratios (RORs) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI): (1) exploratory analysis on the entire FAERS (using rosiglitazone as positive control); (2) consolidated analyses by therapeutic area (within antidiabetics), correcting for event- and drug-related competition bias and adjusting for co-reported drugs as confounders.

RESULTS

HF during DPP4-I use was recorded in 390 reports (4.4% of total reports). In exploratory analysis, statistically significant ROR emerged for DPP-4-I as a class (ROR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.05-1.29), saxagliptin (1.68; 1.29-2.17), vildagliptin (2.39; 1.38-4.14), and rosiglitazone (13.98; 13.30-14.70). In consolidated analyses, the ROR for saxagliptin (2.60; 1.92-3.50) and vildagliptin (4.07; 2.28-7.27) increased, and became also significant for sitagliptin (1.61; 1.40-1.86). Concomitant drugs were reported in more than 50% of cases; the adjusted RORs of saxagliptin (2.30; 1.70-3.10), vildagliptin (3.15; 1.76-5.63), and sitagliptin (1.48; 1.28-1.71) were nonetheless significant.

CONCLUSION

FAERS data are consistent with clinical studies on a possible association between saxagliptin and HF. The disproportionate reporting of HF with sitagliptin, conflicting with a recent phase IV trial, suggests that cardiovascular safety requires close post-marketing vigilance by clinicians of individual DPP-4-I in the community until the issue of class effect is solved.

Raphanus sativus cv. Sango Sprout Juice Decreases Diet-Induced Obesity in Sprague Dawley Rats and Ameliorates Related Disorders

BACKGROUND

Obesity is recognized as a leading global health problem, correlated with an increased risk for several chronic diseases. One strategy for weight control management includes the use of vegetables rich in bioactive compounds to counteract weight gain, improve the antioxidant status and stimulate lipid catabolism.

AIM OF THE STUDY

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of Raphanus sativus Sango sprout juice (SSJ), a Brassica extraordinarily rich in anthocyanins (AC) and isothiocyanates (ITCs), in a non-genetic model of obesity (high fat diet-HFD induced).

METHODS

Control groups were fed with HFD or regular diet (RD). After a 10-week period, animals were assigned to experimental units and treated by gavage for 28 days as follows: HFD and RD control groups (rats fed HFD or RD and treated with vehicle only) and HFD-treated groups (rats fed HFD and treated with 15, 75 or 150 mg/kg b.w. of SSJ). Body weight and food consumption were recorded and serum lipid profile was measured (total cholesterol, triglycerides, and non-esterified fatty acids). Hepatic phase-I, phase-II as well as antioxidant enzymatic activities were assessed.

RESULTS

SSJ lowered total cholesterol level, food intake and liver weight compared with HFD rodents. SSJ at medium dose proved effective in reducing body-weight (~19 g reduction). SSJ was effective in up-regulating the antioxidant enzymes catalase,

NAD(P)H

quinone reductase, oxidised glutathione reductase and superoxide dismutase, which reached or exceeded RD levels, as well as the phase II metabolic enzyme UDP-glucuronosyl transferase (up to about 43%). HFD up-regulated almost every cytochrome P450 isoform tested, and a mild down-regulation to baseline was observed after SSJ intervention.

CONCLUSION

This work reveals, for the first time, the antioxidant, hypolipidemic and antiobesity potential of SSJ, suggesting its use as an efficient new functional food/nutraceutical product.