Infection with alternate frequencies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine boosting for patients undergoing antineoplastic cancer treatments

Patients undergoing antineoplastic therapies often exhibit reduced immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, necessitating assessment of alternate booster vaccination frequencies. However, data on reinfection risks to guide clinical decision making are limited. Here, we quantified reinfection risks for patients undergoing distinct antineoplastic therapies, given alternative frequencies of boosting with Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2. Integrating antibody data following vaccination with long-term antibody data from other coronaviruses in an evolutionary framework, we estimated infection probabilities based on antibody levels and calculated cumulative probabilities of breakthrough infection for alternate booster schedules over 2 years. Annual boosting reduced risks for targeted or hormonal treatments, immunotherapy, and chemotherapy-immunotherapy combinations similarly to the general population. Patients receiving no treatment or chemotherapy exhibited higher risks, suggesting that accelerated vaccination schedules should be considered. Patients treated with rituximab therapy presented the highest infection risk, suggesting that a combination of frequent boosting and additional interventions may be warranted for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects among somatic cancer mutations across oncogenesis

Cancer occurs as a consequence of multiple somatic mutations that lead to uncontrolled cell growth. Mutual exclusivity and co-occurrence of mutations imply-but do not prove-that mutations exert synergistic or antagonistic epistatic effects on oncogenesis. Knowledge of these interactions, and the consequent trajectories of mutation and selection that lead to cancer has been a longstanding goal within the cancer research community. Recent research has revealed mutation rates and scaled selection coefficients for specific recurrent variants across many cancer types. However, there are no current methods to quantify the strength of selection incorporating pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects on selection within the trajectory of likely cancer genotoypes. Therefore, we have developed a continuous-time Markov chain model that enables the estimation of mutation origination and fixation (flux), dependent on somatic cancer genotype. Coupling this continuous-time Markov chain model with a deconvolution approach provides estimates of underlying mutation rates and selection across the trajectory of oncogenesis. We demonstrate computation of fluxes and selection coefficients in a somatic evolutionary model for the four most frequently variant driver genes (TP53, LRP1B, KRAS and STK11) from 565 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. Our analysis reveals multiple antagonistic epistatic effects that reduce the possible routes of oncogenesis, and inform cancer research regarding viable trajectories of somatic evolution whose progression could be forestalled by precision medicine. Synergistic epistatic effects are also identified, most notably in the somatic genotype TP53 LRP1B for mutations in the KRAS gene, and in somatic genotypes containing KRAS or TP53 mutations for mutations in the STK11 gene. Large positive fluxes of KRAS variants were driven by large selection coefficients, whereas the flux toward LRP1B mutations was substantially aided by a large mutation rate for this gene. The approach enables inference of the most likely routes of site-specific variant evolution and estimation of the strength of selection operating on each step along the route, a key component of what we need to know to develop and implement personalized cancer therapies.

Seasonality of endemic COVID-19

Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease. Foreknowledge of when to expect seasonal surges is crucial for healthcare and public health decision-making. However, the future seasonality of COVID-19 remains uncertain. Evaluating its seasonality is complicated due to the limited years of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and varied interventions. In this study, we project the expected endemic seasonality by employing a phylogenetic ancestral and descendant state approach that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating HCoV coronaviruses. Our projections indicate asynchronous surges of SARS-CoV-2 across different locations in the northern hemisphere, occurring between October and January in New York and between January and March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of spatiotemporal surges leads to medical preparedness and enables the implementation of targeted public health interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission.IMPORTANCEThe seasonality of COVID-19 is important for effective healthcare and public health decision-making. Previous waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have indicated that the virus will likely persist as an endemic pathogen with distinct surges. However, the timing and patterns of potentially seasonal surges remain uncertain, rendering effective public health policies uninformed and in danger of poorly anticipating opportunities for intervention, such as well-timed booster vaccination drives. Applying an evolutionary approach to long-term data on closely related circulating coronaviruses, our research provides projections of seasonal surges that should be expected at major temperate population centers. These projections enable local public health efforts that are tailored to expected surges at specific locales or regions. This knowledge is crucial for enhancing medical preparedness and facilitating the implementation of targeted public health interventions.

Lineage-specific genes are clustered with HET-domain genes and respond to environmental and genetic manipulations regulating reproduction in Neurospora

Lineage-specific genes (LSGs) have long been postulated to play roles in the establishment of genetic barriers to intercrossing and speciation. In the genome of Neurospora crassa, most of the 670 Neurospora LSGs that are aggregated adjacent to the telomeres are clustered with 61% of the HET-domain genes, some of which regulate self-recognition and define vegetative incompatibility groups. In contrast, the LSG-encoding proteins possess few to no domains that would help to identify potential functional roles. Possible functional roles of LSGs were further assessed by performing transcriptomic profiling in genetic mutants and in response to environmental alterations, as well as examining gene knockouts for phenotypes. Among the 342 LSGs that are dynamically expressed during both asexual and sexual phases, 64% were detectable on unusual carbon sources such as furfural, a wildfire-produced chemical that is a strong inducer of sexual development, and the structurally-related furan 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF). Expression of a significant portion of the LSGs was sensitive to light and temperature, factors that also regulate the switch from asexual to sexual reproduction. Furthermore, expression of the LSGs was significantly affected in the knockouts of adv-1 and pp-1 that regulate hyphal communication, and expression of more than one quarter of the LSGs was affected by perturbation of the mating locus. These observations encouraged further investigation of the roles of clustered lineage-specific and HET-domain genes in ecology and reproduction regulation in Neurospora, especially the regulation of the switch from the asexual growth to sexual reproduction, in response to dramatic environmental conditions changes.

Origins of lineage-specific elements via gene duplication, relocation, and regional rearrangement in Neurospora crassa

The origin of new genes has long been a central interest of evolutionary biologists. However, their novelty means that they evade reconstruction by the classical tools of evolutionary modelling. This evasion of deep ancestral investigation necessitates intensive study of model species within well-sampled, recently diversified, clades. One such clade is the model genus Neurospora, members of which lack recent gene duplications. Several Neurospora species are comprehensively characterized organisms apt for studying the evolution of lineage-specific genes (LSGs). Using gene synteny, we documented that 78% of Neurospora LSG clusters are located adjacent to the telomeres featuring extensive tracts of non-coding DNA and duplicated genes. Here, we report several instances of LSGs that are likely from regional rearrangements and potentially from gene rebirth. To broadly investigate the functions of LSGs, we assembled transcriptomics data from 68 experimental data points and identified co-regulatory modules using Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis, revealing that LSGs are widely but peripherally involved in known regulatory machinery for diverse functions. The ancestral status of the LSG mas-1, a gene with roles in cell-wall integrity and cellular sensitivity to antifungal toxins, was investigated in detail alongside its genomic neighbours, indicating that it arose from an ancient lysophospholipase precursor that is ubiquitous in lineages of the Sordariomycetes. Our discoveries illuminate a "rummage region" in the N. crassa genome that enables the formation of new genes and functions to arise via gene duplication and relocation, followed by fast mutation and recombination facilitated by sequence repeats and unconstrained non-coding sequences.

The Sordariomycetes: an expanding resource with Big Data for mining in evolutionary genomics and transcriptomics

Advances in genomics and transcriptomics accompanying the rapid accumulation of omics data have provided new tools that have transformed and expanded the traditional concepts of model fungi. Evolutionary genomics and transcriptomics have flourished with the use of classical and newer fungal models that facilitate the study of diverse topics encompassing fungal biology and development. Technological advances have also created the opportunity to obtain and mine large datasets. One such continuously growing dataset is that of the Sordariomycetes, which exhibit a richness of species, ecological diversity, economic importance, and a profound research history on amenable models. Currently, 3,574 species of this class have been sequenced, comprising nearly one-third of the available ascomycete genomes. Among these genomes, multiple representatives of the model genera Fusarium, Neurospora, and Trichoderma are present. In this review, we examine recently published studies and data on the Sordariomycetes that have contributed novel insights to the field of fungal evolution via integrative analyses of the genetic, pathogenic, and other biological characteristics of the fungi. Some of these studies applied ancestral state analysis of gene expression among divergent lineages to infer regulatory network models, identify key genetic elements in fungal sexual development, and investigate the regulation of conidial germination and secondary metabolism. Such multispecies investigations address challenges in the study of fungal evolutionary genomics derived from studies that are often based on limited model genomes and that primarily focus on the aspects of biology driven by knowledge drawn from a few model species. Rapidly accumulating information and expanding capabilities for systems biological analysis of Big Data are setting the stage for the expansion of the concept of model systems from unitary taxonomic species/genera to inclusive clusters of well-studied models that can facilitate both the in-depth study of specific lineages and also investigation of trait diversity across lineages. The Sordariomycetes class, in particular, offers abundant omics data and a large and active global research community. As such, the Sordariomycetes can form a core omics clade, providing a blueprint for the expansion of our knowledge of evolution at the genomic scale in the exciting era of Big Data and artificial intelligence, and serving as a reference for the future analysis of different taxonomic levels within the fungal kingdom.

Estimation of Neutral Mutation Rates and Quantification of Somatic Variant Selection Using cancereffectsizeR

Somatic nucleotide mutations can contribute to cancer cell survival, proliferation, and pathogenesis. Although research has focused on identifying which mutations are "drivers" versus "passengers," quantifying the proliferative effects of specific variants within clinically relevant contexts could reveal novel aspects of cancer biology. To enable researchers to estimate these cancer effects, we developed cancereffectsizeR, an R package that organizes somatic variant data, facilitates mutational signature analysis, calculates site-specific mutation rates, and tests models of selection. Built-in models support effect estimation from single nucleotides to genes. Users can also estimate epistatic effects between paired sets of variants, or design and test custom models. The utility of cancer effect was validated by showing in a pan-cancer dataset that somatic variants classified as likely pathogenic or pathogenic in ClinVar exhibit substantially higher effects than most other variants. Indeed, cancer effect was a better predictor of pathogenic status than variant prevalence or functional impact scores. In addition, the application of this approach toward pairwise epistasis in lung adenocarcinoma showed that driver mutations in BRAF, EGFR, or KRAS typically reduce selection for alterations in the other two genes. Companion reference data packages support analyses using the hg19 or hg38 human genome builds, and a reference data builder enables use with any species or custom genome build with available genomic and transcriptomic data. A reference manual, tutorial, and public source code repository are available at https://townsend-lab-yale.github.io/cancereffectsizeR. Comprehensive estimation of cancer effects of somatic mutations can provide insights into oncogenic trajectories, with implications for cancer prognosis and treatment.

SIGNIFICANCE

An R package provides streamlined, customizable estimation of underlying nucleotide mutation rates and of the oncogenic and epistatic effects of mutations in cancer cohorts.

Infection by SARS-CoV-2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting

One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID-19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We integrated anti-Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6-year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA-1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS-CoV-2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population-wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall-and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate-COVID-19.

Abstract PR005: Features and susceptibility to dietary-induced alkylating damage in colorectal cancer

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) has several established risk factors, including diet. However, their mutagenic effect has not been observed directly in patients’ tumors and the individuals or ethnic groups who are most susceptible to diet-induced carcinogenesis are yet to be identified. We hypothesized that mutational signature analyses in CRC, coupled with epidemiologic, tumor molecular and patient germline data, can be linked to pre-diagnosis diet and specific germline alterations which can further inform cancer prevention efforts. Methods: We analyzed 900 CRCs with whole-exome sequencing (WES) and prospectively collected pre-diagnosis dietary data from the Nurses’ Health Studies I and II (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS), as well as 540 The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) tumors and 295 non-Western CRCs from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes. We additionally examined a sequencing dataset of normal colonic crypts. Following variant calling, mutational signature analyses were performed on cancer specimens using Non-negative Matrix Factorization. We leveraged the WES results to identify all patients that harbored the O-6-Methylguanine-DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT) germline rs16906252 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), which is associated with tumor MGMT promoter hypermethylation and impaired alkylating damage repair. Results: We identified a novel alkylating mutational signature in CRC, which was associated with pre-diagnosis intake of red meats (overall red meat P = 0.017, unprocessed red meat P = 7.8×10-3, processed red meat P = 7.1×10-3, Mann-Whitney test), distal tumor location (P = 1.4×10-4, Mann-Whitney test) and worse CRC-specific survival (P trend = 0.036, multivariable Cox regression). We found a similar mutational signature in normal colonic crypts, suggesting an early oncogenic process. We showed that the alkylating signature’s oncogenicity is mainly mediated by KRAS p.G12D and KRAS p.G13D hotspot mutations. In addition, individuals harboring the MGMT rs16906252 germline SNP had a significant enrichment in tumors with alkylating damage (P = 0.015, Mann-Whitney test) and the effect of the SNP was synergistic with pre-diagnosis red-meat intake (P = 0.0099, Wald Test). Notably, we did not observe the alkylating mutational signature in CRCs from African and East-Asian patients, populations in which the MGMT rs16906252 SNP is largely absent. Conclusions: Through the integration of molecular and epidemiologic data, we identified evidence of red meat-associated alkylating damage in CRCs. This alkylating mutational signature was associated with distal colon location, KRAS oncogenic drivers, and poor CRC-specific survival. In addition, tumor alkylating damage was enriched among individuals harboring the MGMT germline rs16906252 polymorphism, absent in East Asian and African CRC patients and was synergistic with pre-diagnosis red-meat intake. Together, these results have significant implications for dietary-induced carcinogenesis and precision prevention in CRC.

Citation Format: Carino Gurjao, Rong Zhong, Koichiro Haruki, Chichun Tan, Yvonne Li, Henry Lee-Six, Brendan Reardon, Tomotaka Ugai, Mingyang Song, Eliezer M. Van Allen, Charles S. Fuchs, Jonathan A. Nowak, Kana Wu, Jeffrey A. Meyerhardt, Edward L. Giovannucci, Jeffrey P. Townsend, Shuji Ogino, Marios Giannakis. Features and susceptibility to dietary-induced alkylating damage in colorectal cancer. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Precision Prevention, Early Detection, and Interception of Cancer; 2022 Nov 17-19; Austin, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2023;16(1 Suppl): Abstract nr PR005.

Jot: guiding journal selection with suitability metrics

Researchers grapple with a challenging and consequential decision each time they choose a journal for manuscript submission. There are several online tools that attempt to identify appropriate journals for a manuscript, but each of these tools has shortcomings in terms of the journal data they provide and the exploration functionality they offer-and not one of these tools is open source. Jot is a free and open-source web application that matches manuscripts in the fields of biomedicine and life sciences with suitable journals, based on a manuscript's title, abstract, and (optionally) citations. Jot gathers a wealth of data on journal quality, impact, fit, and open access options that can be explored through a dashboard of linked, interactive visualizations.

Placing human gene families into their evolutionary context

Following the draft sequence of the first human genome over 20 years ago, we have achieved unprecedented insights into the rules governing its evolution, often with direct translational relevance to specific diseases. However, staggering sequence complexity has also challenged the development of a more comprehensive understanding of human genome biology. In this context, interspecific genomic studies between humans and other animals have played a critical role in our efforts to decode human gene families. In this review, we focus on how the rapid surge of genome sequencing of both model and non-model organisms now provides a broader comparative framework poised to empower novel discoveries. We begin with a general overview of how comparative approaches are essential for understanding gene family evolution in the human genome, followed by a discussion of analyses of gene expression. We show how homology can provide insights into the genes and gene families associated with immune response, cancer biology, vision, chemosensation, and metabolism, by revealing similarity in processes among distant species. We then explain methodological tools that provide critical advances and show the limitations of common approaches. We conclude with a discussion of how these investigations position us to gain fundamental insights into the evolution of gene families among living organisms in general. We hope that our review catalyzes additional excitement and research on the emerging field of comparative genomics, while aiding the placement of the human genome into its existentially evolutionary context.

Clone Phylogenetics Reveals Metastatic Tumor Migrations, Maps, and Models

Simple Summary

Metastasis is the spread of cancer cells across organs and is a major cause of cancer mortality. Analysis of tumor sequencing data provides a means toward the reconstruction of routes of metastatic cell migrations. Our reconstructions demonstrated that many metastases were likely seeded from pre-existing metastasis of primary tumors. Additionally, multiple clone exchanges between tumor sites were common. In conclusion, the pattern of cancer cell migrations is often complex and is highly variable among patients.

Abstract

Dispersal routes of metastatic cells are not medically detected or even visible. A molecular evolutionary analysis of tumor variation provides a way to retrospectively infer metastatic migration histories and answer questions such as whether the majority of metastases are seeded from clones within primary tumors or seeded from clones within pre-existing metastases, as well as whether the evolution of metastases is generally consistent with any proposed models. We seek answers to these fundamental questions through a systematic patient-centric retrospective analysis that maps the dynamic evolutionary history of tumor cell migrations in many cancers. We analyzed tumor genetic heterogeneity in 51 cancer patients and found that most metastatic migration histories were best described by a hybrid of models of metastatic tumor evolution. Synthesizing across metastatic migration histories, we found new tumor seedings arising from clones of pre-existing metastases as often as they arose from clones from primary tumors. There were also many clone exchanges between the source and recipient tumors. Therefore, a molecular phylogenetic analysis of tumor variation provides a retrospective glimpse into general patterns of metastatic migration histories in cancer patients.

APOBEC mutagenesis and selection for NFE2L2 contribute to the origin of lung squamous-cell carcinoma

Lung squamous-cell carcinoma originates as a consequence of oncogenic molecular variants arising from diverse mutagenic processes such as tobacco, defective homologous recombination, aging, and cytidine deamination by APOBEC proteins. Only some of the many variants generated by these processes actually contribute to tumorigenesis. Therefore, molecular investigation of mutagenic processes such as cytidine deamination by APOBEC should also determine whether the mutations produced by these processes contribute substantially to the growth and survival of cancer. Here, we determine the processes that gave rise to mutations of 681 lung squamous-cell carcinomas, and quantify the probability that each mutation was the product of each process. We then calculate the contribution of each mutation to increases in cellular proliferation and survival. We performed in vitro experiments to determine cytidine deamination activity of APOBEC3B against oligonucleotides corresponding with genomic sequences that give rise to variants of high cancer effect size. The largest APOBEC-related cancer effects are attributable to mutations in PIK3CA and NFE2L2. We demonstrate that APOBEC effectively deaminates NFE2L2 at the locations that confer high cancer effect. Overall, we demonstrate that APOBEC activity can lead to mutations in NFE2L2 that have large contributions to cancer cell growth and survival, and that NFE2L2 is an attractive potential target for therapeutic intervention.

Differential Expression of Cell Wall Remodeling Genes Is Part of the Dynamic Phase-Specific Transcriptional Program of Conidial Germination of Trichoderma asperelloides

The nature of saprophytic and mycoparasitic hyphal growth of Trichoderma spp. has been studied extensively, yet its initiation via conidial germination in this genus is less well understood. Using near-synchronous germinating cultures of Trichoderma asperelloides, we followed the morphological progression from dormant conidia to initial polar growth to germling formation and to evidence for first branching. We found that the stage-specific transcriptional profile of T. asperelloides is one of the most dynamic described to date: transcript abundance of over 5000 genes-comprising approximately half of the annotated genome-was unremittingly reduced in the transition from dormancy to polar growth. Conversely, after the onset of germination, the transcript abundance of approximately a quarter of the genome was unremittingly elevated during the transition from elongation to initial branching. These changes are a testimony to the substantial developmental events that accompany germination. Bayesian network analysis identified several chitinase- and glucanase-encoding genes as active transcriptional hubs during germination. Furthermore, the expression of specific members of the chitin synthase and glucan elongase families was significantly increased during germination in the presence of Rhizoctonia solani-a known host of the mycoparasite-indicating that host recognition can occur during the early stages of mycoparasite development.

Testing for COVID-19 is Much More Effective When Performed Immediately Prior to Social Mixing

Objective: To quantify the utility of RT-PCR and rapid antigen tests in preventing post-arrival transmission based on timing of the pre-departure test.

Methods: We derived analytical expressions to compute post-arrival transmission when no test is performed, and when either an RT-PCR or any of 18 rapid antigen tests is performed at specified times before arrival. We determined the diagnostic sensitivity of the rapid antigen tests by propagating their RT-PCR percent positive agreement onto known RT-PCR diagnostic sensitivity.

Results: Depending on the rapid antigen test used, conducting a rapid antigen test immediately before departure reduces post-arrival transmission between 37.4% (95% CrI: 28.2%–40.7%) and 46.7% (95% CrI:40.0%–49.3%), compared to a 31.1% (95% CrI: 26.3%–33.5%) reduction using an RT-PCR 12 h before arrival. Performance of each rapid antigen test differed by diagnostic sensitivity over the course of disease. However, these differences were smaller than those engendered by testing too early.

Conclusion: Testing closer to arrival—ideally on the day of arrival—is more effective at reducing post-arrival transmission than testing earlier. Rapid antigen tests perform the best in this application due to their short turnaround time.

Quarantine and serial testing for variants of SARS-CoV-2 with benefits of vaccination and boosting on consequent control of COVID-19

Quarantine and serial testing strategies for a disease depend principally on its incubation period and infectiousness profile. In the context of COVID-19, these primary public health tools must be modulated with successive SARS CoV-2 variants of concern that dominate transmission. Our analysis shows that (1) vaccination status of an individual makes little difference to the determination of the appropriate quarantine duration of an infected case, whereas vaccination coverage of the population can have a substantial effect on this duration, (2) successive variants can challenge disease control efforts by their earlier and increased transmission in the disease time course relative to prior variants, and (3) sufficient vaccine boosting of a population substantially aids the suppression of local transmission through frequent serial testing. For instance, with Omicron, increasing immunity through vaccination and boosters-for instance with 100% of the population is fully immunized and at least 24% having received a third dose-can reduce quarantine durations by up to 2 d, as well as substantially aid in the repression of outbreaks through serial testing. Our analysis highlights the paramount importance of maintaining high population immunity, preferably by booster uptake, and the role of quarantine and testing to control the spread of SARS CoV-2.

Cancer Relevance of Human Genes

BACKGROUND

We hypothesize that genes that directly or indirectly interact with core cancer genes (CCGs) in a comprehensive gene-gene interaction network may have functional importance in cancer.

METHODS

We categorized 12 767 human genes into CCGs (n = 468), 1 (n = 5467), 2 (n = 5573), 3 (n = 915), and more than 3 steps (n = 416) removed from the nearest CCG in the Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes/Proteins network. We estimated cancer-relevant functional importance in these neighborhood categories using 1) gene dependency score, which reflects the effect of a gene on cell viability after knockdown; 2) somatic mutation frequency in The Cancer Genome Atlas; 3) effect size that estimates to what extent a mutation in a gene enhances cell survival; and 4) negative selection pressure of germline protein-truncating variants in healthy populations.

RESULTS

Cancer biology-related functional importance of genes decreases as their distance from the CCGs increases. Genes closer to cancer genes show greater connectedness in the network, have greater importance in maintaining cancer cell viability, are under greater negative germline selection pressure, and have higher somatic mutation frequency in cancer. Based on these 4 metrics, we provide cancer relevance annotation to known human genes.

CONCLUSIONS

A large number of human genes are connected to CCGs and could influence cancer biology to various extent when dysregulated; any given mutation may be functionally important in one but not in another individual depending on genomic context.

Attribution of Cancer Origins to Endogenous, Exogenous, and Preventable Mutational Processes

Mutational processes in tumors create distinctive patterns of mutations, composed of neutral "passenger" mutations and oncogenic drivers that have quantifiable effects on the proliferation and survival of cancer cell lineages. Increases in proliferation and survival are mediated by natural selection, which can be quantified by comparing the frequency at which we detect substitutions to the frequency at which we expect to detect substitutions assuming neutrality. Most of the variants detectable with whole-exome sequencing in tumors are neutral or nearly neutral in effect, and thus the processes generating the majority of mutations may not be the primary sources of the tumorigenic mutations. Across 24 cancer types, we identify the contributions of mutational processes to each oncogenic variant and quantify the degree to which each process contributes to tumorigenesis. We demonstrate that the origination of variants driving melanomas and lung cancers is predominantly attributable to the preventable, exogenous mutational processes associated with ultraviolet light and tobacco exposure, respectively, whereas the origination of selected variants in gliomas and prostate adenocarcinomas is largely attributable to endogenous processes associated with aging. Preventable mutations associated with pathogen exposure and apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing enzyme activity account for a large proportion of the cancer effect within head-and-neck, bladder, cervical, and breast cancers. These attributions complement epidemiological approaches-revealing the burden of cancer driven by single-nucleotide variants caused by either endogenous or exogenous, nonpreventable, or preventable processes, and crucially inform public health strategies.

Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.

METHODS

We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."

FINDINGS

We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.

INTERPRETATION

For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.

FUNDING

EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).

Comparative analyses of eighteen rapid antigen tests and RT-PCR for COVID-19 quarantine and surveillance-based isolation

Background

Rapid antigen (RA) tests are being increasingly employed to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections in quarantine and surveillance. Prior research has focused on RT-PCR testing, a single RA test, or generic diagnostic characteristics of RA tests in assessing testing strategies.

Methods

We have conducted a comparative analysis of the post-quarantine transmission, the effective reproduction number during serial testing, and the false-positive rates for 18 RA tests with emergency use authorization from The United States Food and Drug Administration and an RT-PCR test. To quantify the extent of transmission, we developed an analytical mathematical framework informed by COVID-19 infectiousness, test specificity, and temporal diagnostic sensitivity data.

Results

We demonstrate that the relative effectiveness of RA tests and RT-PCR testing in reducing post-quarantine transmission depends on the quarantine duration and the turnaround time of testing results. For quarantines of two days or shorter, conducting a RA test on exit from quarantine reduces onward transmission more than a single RT-PCR test (with a 24-h delay) conducted upon exit. Applied to a complementary approach of performing serial testing at a specified frequency paired with isolation of positives, we have shown that RA tests outperform RT-PCR with a 24-h delay. The results from our modeling framework are consistent with quarantine and serial testing data collected from a remote industry setting.

Conclusions

These RA test-specific results are an important component of the tool set for policy decision-making, and demonstrate that judicious selection of an appropriate RA test can supply a viable alternative to RT-PCR in efforts to control the spread of disease.

Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Numerous countries imposed strict travel restrictions, contributing to the large socioeconomic burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long quarantines that apply to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.

METHODS

We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."

FINDINGS

We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.

INTERPRETATION

For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.

FUNDING

EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).

The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study

Background

Among the most consequential unknowns of the devastating COVID-19 pandemic are the durability of immunity and time to likely reinfection. There are limited direct data on SARS-CoV-2 long-term immune responses and reinfection. The aim of this study is to use data on the durability of immunity among evolutionarily close coronavirus relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate times to reinfection by a comparative evolutionary analysis of related viruses SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, human coronavirus (HCoV)-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63.

Methods

We conducted phylogenetic analyses of the S, M, and ORF1b genes to reconstruct a maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny of human-infecting coronaviruses. This phylogeny enabled comparative analyses of peak-normalised nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and whole-virus lysate IgG antibody optical density levels, in conjunction with reinfection data on endemic human-infecting coronaviruses. We performed ancestral and descendent states analyses to estimate the expected declines in antibody levels over time, the probabilities of reinfection based on antibody level, and the anticipated times to reinfection after recovery under conditions of endemic transmission for SARS-CoV-2, as well as the other human-infecting coronaviruses.

Findings

We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5–95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5–95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset.

Interpretation

The timeframe for reinfection is fundamental to numerous aspects of public health decision making. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reinfection is likely to become increasingly common. Maintaining public health measures that curb transmission—including among individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2—coupled with persistent efforts to accelerate vaccination worldwide is critical to the prevention of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Funding

US National Science Foundation.

The somatic molecular evolution of cancer: Mutation, selection, and epistasis

Cancer progression has been attributed to somatic changes in single-nucleotide variants, copy-number aberrations, loss of heterozygosity, chromosomal instability, epistatic interactions, and the tumor microenvironment. It is not entirely clear which of these changes are essential and which are ancillary to cancer. The dynamic nature of cancer evolution in a patient can be illuminated using several concepts and tools from classical evolutionary biology. Neutral mutation rates in cancer cells are calculable from genomic data such as synonymous mutations, and selective pressures are calculable from rates of fixation occurring beyond the expectation by neutral mutation and drift. However, these cancer effect sizes of mutations are complicated by epistatic interactions that can determine the likely sequence of gene mutations. In turn, longitudinal phylogenetic analyses of somatic cancer progression offer an opportunity to identify key moments in cancer evolution, relating the timing of driver mutations to corresponding landmarks in the clinical timeline. These analyses reveal temporal aspects of genetic and phenotypic change during tumorigenesis and across clinical timescales. Using a related framework, clonal deconvolution, physical locations of clones, and their phylogenetic relations can be used to infer tumor migration histories. Additionally, genetic interactions with the tumor microenvironment can be analyzed with longstanding approaches applied to organismal genotype-by-environment interactions. Fitness landscapes for cancer evolution relating to genotype, phenotype, and environment could enable more accurate, personalized therapeutic strategies. An understanding of the trajectories underlying the evolution of neoplasms, primary, and metastatic tumors promises fundamental advances toward accurate and personalized predictions of therapeutic response.

Chemsearch: collaborative compound libraries with structure-aware browsing

Summary

Chemsearch is a cross-platform server application for developing and managing a chemical compound library and associated data files, with an interface for browsing and search that allows for easy navigation to a compound of interest, similar compounds or compounds that have desired structural properties. With provisions for access control and centralized document and data storage, Chemsearch supports collaboration by distributed teams.

Availability and implementation

Chemsearch is a free and open-source Flask web application that can be linked to a Google Workspace account. Source code is available at https://github.com/gem-net/chemsearch (GPLv3 license). A Docker image allowing rapid deployment is available at https://hub.docker.com/r/cgemcci/chemsearch.

Environmental and sex-specific molecular signatures of glioma causation

Background

The relative importance of genetic and environmental risk factors in gliomagenesis remains uncertain.

Methods

Using whole-exome sequencing data from 1105 adult gliomas, we evaluate the relative contribution to cancer cell lineage proliferation and survival of single-nucleotide mutations in tumors by IDH mutation subtype and sex. We also quantify the contributions of COSMIC cancer mutational signatures to these tumors, identifying possible risk exposures.

Results

IDH-mutant tumors exhibited few unique recurrent substitutions—all in coding regions, while IDH wild-type tumors exhibited many substitutions in non-coding regions. The importance of previously reported mutations in IDH1/2, TP53, EGFR, PTEN, PIK3CA, and PIK3R1 was confirmed; however, the largest cancer effect in IDH wild-type tumors was associated with mutations in the low-prevalence BRAF V600E. Males and females exhibited mutations in a similar set of significantly overburdened genes, with some differences in variant sites—notably in the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway. In IDH-mutant tumors, PIK3CA mutations were located in the helical domain for females and the kinase domain for males; variants of import also differed by sex for PIK3R1. Endogenous age-related mutagenesis was the primary molecular signature identified; a signature associated with exogenous exposure to haloalkanes was identified and noted more frequently in males.

Conclusions

Cancer-causing mutations in glioma primarily originated as a consequence of endogenous rather than exogenous factors. Mutations in helical vs kinase domains of genes in the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway are differentially selected in males and females. Additionally, a rare environmental risk factor is suggested for some cases of glioma—particularly in males.

The GUL-1 Protein Binds Multiple RNAs Involved in Cell Wall Remodeling and Affects the MAK-1 Pathway in Neurospora crassa

The Neurospora crassa GUL-1 is part of the COT-1 pathway, which plays key roles in regulating polar hyphal growth and cell wall remodeling. We show that GUL-1 is a bona fide RNA-binding protein (RBP) that can associate with 828 "core" mRNA species. When cell wall integrity (CWI) is challenged, expression of over 25% of genomic RNA species are modulated (2,628 mRNAs, including the GUL-1 mRNA). GUL-1 binds mRNAs of genes related to translation, cell wall remodeling, circadian clock, endoplasmic reticulum (ER), as well as CWI and MAPK pathway components. GUL-1 interacts with over 100 different proteins, including stress-granule and P-body proteins, ER components and components of the MAPK, COT-1, and STRIPAK complexes. Several additional RBPs were also shown to physically interact with GUL-1. Under stress conditions, GUL-1 can localize to the ER and affect the CWI pathway-evident via altered phosphorylation levels of MAK-1, interaction with mak-1 transcript, and involvement in the expression level of the transcription factor adv-1. We conclude that GUL-1 functions in multiple cellular processes, including the regulation of cell wall remodeling, via a mechanism associated with the MAK-1 pathway and stress-response.

Unmatched Level of Molecular Convergence among Deeply Divergent Complex Multicellular Fungi

Convergent evolution is pervasive in nature, but it is poorly understood how various constraints and natural selection limit the diversity of evolvable phenotypes. Here, we analyze the transcriptome across fruiting body development to understand the independent evolution of complex multicellularity in the two largest clades of fungi—the Agarico- and Pezizomycotina. Despite >650 My of divergence between these clades, we find that very similar sets of genes have convergently been co-opted for complex multicellularity, followed by expansions of their gene families by duplications. Over 82% of shared multicellularity-related gene families were expanding in both clades, indicating a high prevalence of convergence also at the gene family level. This convergence is coupled with a rich inferred repertoire of multicellularity-related genes in the most recent common ancestor of the Agarico- and Pezizomycotina, consistent with the hypothesis that the coding capacity of ancestral fungal genomes might have promoted the repeated evolution of complex multicellularity. We interpret this repertoire as an indication of evolutionary predisposition of fungal ancestors for evolving complex multicellular fruiting bodies. Our work suggests that evolutionary convergence may happen not only when organisms are closely related or are under similar selection pressures, but also when ancestral genomic repertoires render certain evolutionary trajectories more likely than others, even across large phylogenetic distances.

Identifying modules of cooperating cancer drivers

Identifying cooperating modules of driver alterations can provide insights into cancer etiology and advance the development of effective personalized treatments. We present Cancer Rule Set Optimization (CRSO) for inferring the combinations of alterations that cooperate to drive tumor formation in individual patients. Application to 19 TCGA cancer types revealed a mean of 11 core driver combinations per cancer, comprising 2-6 alterations per combination and accounting for a mean of 70% of samples per cancer type. CRSO is distinct from methods based on statistical co-occurrence, which we demonstrate is a suboptimal criterion for investigating driver cooperation. CRSO identified well-studied driver combinations that were not detected by other approaches and nominated novel combinations that correlate with clinical outcomes in multiple cancer types. Novel synergies were identified in NRAS-mutant melanomas that may be therapeutically relevant. Core driver combinations involving NFE2L2 mutations were identified in four cancer types, supporting the therapeutic potential of NRF2 pathway inhibition. CRSO is available at https://github.com/mikekleinsgit/CRSO/.

Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies

For COVID-19, it is vital to understand if quarantines shorter than 14 days can be equally effective with judiciously deployed testing. Here, we develop a mathematical model that quantifies the probability of post-quarantine transmission incorporating testing into travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time of infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. We find that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortens quarantine by at most one day. In a real-world test of our theory applied to offshore oil rig employees, 47 positives were obtained with testing on entry and exit to quarantine, of which 16 had tested negative at entry; preventing an expected nine offshore transmission events that each could have led to outbreaks. We show that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines effective.

Implementation of Syringe Services Programs to Prevent Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Syringe services programs (SSPs) are effective venues for delivering harm-reduction services to people who inject drugs (PWID). However, SSPs often face significant barriers to implementation, particularly in the absence of known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks.

METHODS

Using an agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission in Scott County, Indiana, a rural county with a 1.7% prevalence of injection drug use. We compared outcomes arising in the absence of an SSP, in the presence of a pre-existing SSP, and with implementation of an SSP after the detection of an HIV outbreak among PWID over 5 years following the introduction of a single infection into the network.

RESULTS

In the absence of an SSP, the model predicted an average of 176 infections among PWID over 5 years or an incidence rate of 12.1/100 person-years. Proactive implementation averted 154 infections and decreased incidence by 90.3%. With reactive implementation beginning operations 10 months after the first infection, an SSP would prevent 107 infections and decrease incidence by 60.8%. Reductions in incidence were also observed among people who did not inject drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on model predictions, proactive implementation of an SSP in Scott County had the potential to avert more HIV infections than reactive implementation after the detection of an outbreak. The predicted impact of reactive SSP implementation was highly dependent on timely implementation after detecting the earliest infections. Consequently, there is a need for expanded proactive SSP implementation in the context of enhanced monitoring of outbreak vulnerability in Scott County and similar rural contexts.

Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies

As economic woes of the COVID-19 pandemic deepen, strategies are being formulated to avoid the need for prolonged stay-at-home orders, while implementing risk-based quarantine, testing, contact tracing and surveillance protocols. Given limited resources and the significant economic, public health, and operational challenges of the current 14-day quarantine recommendation, it is vital to understand if shorter but equally effective quarantine and testing strategies can be deployed. To quantify the probability of post-quarantine transmission upon isolation of a positive test, we developed a mathematical model in which we varied quarantine duration and the timing of molecular tests for three scenarios of entry into quarantine. Specifically, we consider travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time if infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. With a one-day delay between test and result, we found that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortened quarantine by at most one day. Testing on exit more effectively reduces post-quarantine transmission than testing upon entry. Furthermore, we identified the optimal testing date within quarantines of varying duration, finding that testing on exit was most effective for quarantines lasting up to seven days. As a real-world validation of these principles, we analyzed the results of 4,040 SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR tests administered to offshore oil rig employees. Among the 47 positives obtained with a testing on entry and exit strategy, 16 cases that previously tested negative at entry were identified, with no further cases detected among employees following quarantine exit. Moreover, this strategy successfully prevented an expected nine offshore transmission events stemming from cases who had tested negative on the entry test, each one a serious concern for initiating rapid spread and a disabling outbreak in the close quarters of an offshore rig. This successful outcome highlights that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines more effective, thereby minimizing economic impacts, disruptions to operational integrity, and COVID-related public health risks.

Comparative Genomics within and across Bilaterians Illuminates the Evolutionary History of ALK and LTK Proto-Oncogene Origination and Diversification

Comparative genomic analyses have enormous potential for identifying key genes central to human health phenotypes, including those that promote cancers. In particular, the successful development of novel therapeutics using model species requires phylogenetic analyses to determine molecular homology. Accordingly, we investigate the evolutionary histories of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)—which can underlie tumorigenesis in neuroblastoma, nonsmall cell lung cancer, and anaplastic large-cell lymphoma—its close relative leukocyte tyrosine kinase (LTK) and their candidate ligands. Homology of ligands identified in model organisms to those functioning in humans remains unclear. Therefore, we searched for homologs of the human genes across metazoan genomes, finding that the candidate ligands Jeb and Hen-1 were restricted to nonvertebrate species. In contrast, the ligand augmentor (AUG) was only identified in vertebrates. We found two ALK-like and four AUG-like protein-coding genes in lamprey. Of these six genes, only one ALK-like and two AUG-like genes exhibited early embryonic expression that parallels model mammal systems. Two copies of AUG are present in nearly all jawed vertebrates. Our phylogenetic analysis strongly supports the presence of previously unrecognized functional convergences of ALK and LTK between actinopterygians and sarcopterygians—despite contemporaneous, highly conserved synteny of ALK and LTK. These findings provide critical guidance regarding the propriety of fish and mammal models with regard to model organism-based investigation of these medically important genes. In sum, our results provide the phylogenetic context necessary for effective investigations of the functional roles and biology of these critically important receptors.

Dogs and pigs are transport hosts of Necator americanus: Molecular evidence for a zoonotic mechanism of human hookworm transmission in Ghana

Hookworm infection (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma spp) causes significant morbidity in resource-limited countries. Dog and pig ownership is associated with human infection, although the mechanism through which animals increase risk remains unknown. We first confirmed this association in Kintampo North, Ghana, using a retrospective analysis and serology, followed by a prospective molecular study of animal faeces. As a proxy of exposure to dog faeces, we analysed immunoreactivity of human serum to the zoonotic nematode Toxocara canis. Anti-Toxocara antibodies were present in 62% of samples (n = 89), and reactivity was associated with dog ownership. A subsequent prospective study revealed that 43% of dog and 56% of pig faecal samples contained hookworm eggs by microscopy. PCR analysis confirmed the presence of N. americanus DNA in 47% of samples from dogs and 56% pig samples. Nematode larvae were successfully cultured from samples collected from 36 dogs and seven pigs. These results demonstrate that dogs and pigs have a likely role in the transmission of N. americanus in endemic communities.

Ink Release and Swimming Behavior in the Oceanic Ctenophore Eurhamphaea vexilligera

Of the more than 150 ctenophore species, the oceanic ctenophore Eurhamphaea vexilligera is notable for its bright orange-yellow ink, secreted from numerous small vesicles that line its substomodeal comb rows. To date, in situ observations by scuba divers have proved the most fruitful method of observing these animals' natural behavior. We present the results of one such contemporary scuba-based observation of E. vexilligera, conducted in the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of Florida, using high-resolution photography and video. Utilizing underwater camera systems purpose built for filming gelatinous zooplankton, we observed E. vexilligera ink release and swimming behavior in situ. From these data, we describe the timeline and mechanics of E. vexilligera ink release in detail, as well as the animal's different swimming behaviors and resulting ink dispersal patterns. We also describe a rolling swimming behavior, accompanied and possibly facilitated by a characteristic change in overall body shape. These observations provide further insight into the behavioral ecology of this distinctive ctenophore and may serve as the foundation for future kinematic studies.

Germline variant burden in cancer genes correlates with age at diagnosis and somatic mutation burden

Cancers harbor many somatic mutations and germline variants, we hypothesized that the combined effect of germline variants that alter the structure, expression, or function of protein-coding regions of cancer-biology related genes (gHFI) determines which and how many somatic mutations (sM) must occur for malignant transformation. We show that gHFI and sM affect overlapping genes and the average number of gHFI in cancer hallmark genes is higher in patients who develop cancer at a younger age (r = -0.77, P = 0.0051), while the average number of sM increases in increasing age groups (r = 0.92, P = 0.000073). A strong negative correlation exists between average gHFI and average sM burden in increasing age groups (r = -0.70, P = 0.017). In early-onset cancers, the larger gHFI burden in cancer genes suggests a greater contribution of germline alterations to the transformation process while late-onset cancers are more driven by somatic mutations.

Molecular Biology and Evolution of Cancer: From Discovery to Action

Cancer progression is an evolutionary process. During this process, evolving cancer cell populations encounter restrictive ecological niches within the body, such as the primary tumor, circulatory system, and diverse metastatic sites. Efforts to prevent or delay cancer evolution-and progression-require a deep understanding of the underlying molecular evolutionary processes. Herein we discuss a suite of concepts and tools from evolutionary and ecological theory that can inform cancer biology in new and meaningful ways. We also highlight current challenges to applying these concepts, and propose ways in which incorporating these concepts could identify new therapeutic modes and vulnerabilities in cancer.

Effect Sizes of Somatic Mutations in Cancer

A major goal of cancer biology is determination of the relative importance of the genetic alterations that confer selective advantage to cancer cells. Tumor sequence surveys have frequently ranked the importance of substitutions to cancer growth by P value or a false-discovery conversion thereof. However, P values are thresholds for belief, not metrics of effect. Their frequent misuse as metrics of effect has often been vociferously decried, even in cases when the only attributable mistake was omission of effect sizes. Here, we propose an appropriate ranking-the cancer effect size, which is the selection intensity for somatic variants in cancer cell lineages. The selection intensity is a metric of the survival and reproductive advantage conferred by mutations in somatic tissue. Thus, they are of fundamental importance to oncology, and have immediate relevance to ongoing decision making in precision medicine tumor boards, to the selection and design of clinical trials, to the targeted development of pharmaceuticals, and to basic research prioritization. Within this commentary, we first discuss the scope of current methods that rank confidence in the overrepresentation of specific mutated genes in cancer genomes. Then we bring to bear recent advances that draw upon an understanding of the development of cancer as an evolutionary process to estimate the effect size of somatic variants leading to cancer. We demonstrate the estimation of the effect sizes of all recurrent single nucleotide variants in 22 cancer types, quantifying relative importance within and between driver genes.

GEM-NET: Lessons in Multi-Institution Teamwork Using Collaboration Software

The Center for Genetically Encoded Materials (C-GEM) is an NSF Phase I Center for Chemical Innovation that comprises six laboratories spread across three university campuses. Our success as a multi-institution research team demanded the development of a software infrastructure, GEM-NET, that allows all C-GEM members to work together seamlessly-as though everyone was in the same room. GEM-NET was designed to support both science and communication by integrating task management, scheduling, data sharing, and collaborative document and code editing with frictionless internal and public communication; it also maintains security over data and internal communications. In this Article, we document the design and implementation of GEM-NET: our objectives and motivating goals, how each component contributes to these goals, and the lessons learned throughout development. We also share open source code for several custom applications and document how GEM-NET can benefit users in multiple fields and teams that are both small and large. We anticipate that this knowledge will guide other multi-institution teams, regardless of discipline, to plan their software infrastructure and utilize it as swiftly and smoothly as possible.

Comparative Genomics and Transcriptomics During Sexual Development Gives Insight Into the Life History of the Cosmopolitan Fungus Fusarium neocosmosporiellum

Fusarium neocosmosporiellum (formerly Neocosmospora vasinfecta) is a cosmopolitan fungus that has been reported from soil, herbivore dung, and as a fruit- and root-rot pathogen of numerous field crops, although it is not known to cause significant losses on any crop. Taking advantage of the fact that this species produces prolific numbers of perithecia in culture, the genome of F. neocosmosporiellum was sequenced and transcriptomic analysis across five stages of perithecium development was performed to better understand the metabolic potential for sexual development and gain insight into its life history. Perithecium morphology together with the genome and transcriptome were compared with those of the plant pathogen F. graminearum, a model for studying perithecium development. Larger ascospores of F. neocosmosporiellum and their tendency to discharge as a cluster demonstrated a duality of dispersal: the majority are passively dispersed through the formation of cirrhi, while a minority of spores are shot longer distances than those of F. graminearum. The predicted gene number in the F. neocosmosporiellum genome was similar to that in F. graminearum, but F. neocosmosporiellum had more carbohydrate metabolism-related and transmembrane transport genes. Many transporter genes were differentially expressed during perithecium development in F. neocosmosporiellum, which may account for its larger perithecia. Comparative analysis of the secondary metabolite gene clusters identified several polyketide synthase genes that were induced during later stages of perithecium development. Deletion of a polyketide synthase gene in F. neocosmosporiellum resulted in a defective perithecium phenotype, suggesting an important role of the corresponding metabolite, which has yet to be identified, in perithecium development. Results of this study have provided novel insights into the genomic underpinning of development in F. neocosmosporiellum, which may help elucidate its ability to occupy diverse ecological niches.

A multigene phylogeny toward a new phylogenetic classification of Leotiomycetes

Fungi in the class Leotiomycetes are ecologically diverse, including mycorrhizas, endophytes of roots and leaves, plant pathogens, aquatic and aero-aquatic hyphomycetes, mammalian pathogens, and saprobes. These fungi are commonly detected in cultures from diseased tissue and from environmental DNA extracts. The identification of specimens from such character-poor samples increasingly relies on DNA sequencing. However, the current classification of Leotiomycetes is still largely based on morphologically defined taxa, especially at higher taxonomic levels. Consequently, the formal Leotiomycetes classification is frequently poorly congruent with the relationships suggested by DNA sequencing studies. Previous class-wide phylogenies of Leotiomycetes have been based on ribosomal DNA markers, with most of the published multi-gene studies being focussed on particular genera or families. In this paper we collate data available from specimens representing both sexual and asexual morphs from across the genetic breadth of the class, with a focus on generic type species, to present a phylogeny based on up to 15 concatenated genes across 279 specimens. Included in the dataset are genes that were extracted from 72 of the genomes available for the class, including 10 new genomes released with this study. To test the statistical support for the deepest branches in the phylogeny, an additional phylogeny based on 3156 genes from 51 selected genomes is also presented. To fill some of the taxonomic gaps in the 15-gene phylogeny, we further present an ITS gene tree, particularly targeting ex-type specimens of generic type species. A small number of novel taxa are proposed: Marthamycetales ord. nov., and Drepanopezizaceae and Mniaeciaceae fams. nov. The formal taxonomic changes are limited in part because of the ad hoc nature of taxon and specimen selection, based purely on the availability of data. The phylogeny constitutes a framework for enabling future taxonomically targeted studies using deliberate specimen selection. Such studies will ideally include designation of epitypes for the type species of those genera for which DNA is not able to be extracted from the original type specimen, and consideration of morphological characters whenever genetically defined clades are recognized as formal taxa within a classification.

Combined Aurora Kinase A (AURKA) and WEE1 Inhibition Demonstrates Synergistic Antitumor Effect in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) commonly bear disruptive mutations in TP53, resulting in treatment resistance. In these patients, direct targeting of p53 has not been successful, but synthetic lethal approaches have promise. Although Aurora A kinase (AURKA) is overexpressed and an oncogenic driver, its inhibition has only modest clinical effects in HPV-negative HNSCC. We explored a novel combination of AURKA and WEE1 inhibition to overcome intrinsic resistance to AURKA inhibition.Experimental Design: AURKA protein expression was determined by fluorescence-based automated quantitative analysis of patient specimens and correlated with survival. We evaluated treatment with the AURKA inhibitor alisertib (MLN8237) and the WEE1 inhibitor adavosertib (AZD1775), alone or in combination, using in vitro and in vivo HNSCC models.

RESULTS

Elevated nuclear AURKA correlated with worse survival among patients with p16(-) HNSCC. Alisertib caused spindle defects, G₂-M arrest and inhibitory CDK1 phosphorylation, and cytostasis in TP53 mutant HNSCC FaDu and UNC7 cells. Addition of adavosertib to alisertib instead triggered mitotic entry and mitotic catastrophe. Moreover, in FaDu and Detroit 562 xenografts, this combination demonstrated synergistic effects on tumor growth and extended overall survival compared with either vehicle or single-agent treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Combinatorial treatment with adavosertib and alisertib leads to synergistic antitumor effects in in vitro and in vivo HNSCC models. These findings suggest a novel rational combination, providing a promising therapeutic avenue for TP53-mutated cancers.

APOBEC-induced mutations and their cancer effect size in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Recent studies have revealed the mutational signatures underlying the somatic evolution of cancer, and the prevalences of associated somatic genetic variants. Here we estimate the intensity of positive selection that drives mutations to high frequency in tumors, yielding higher prevalences than expected on the basis of mutation and neutral drift alone. We apply this approach to a sample of 525 head and neck squamous cell carcinoma exomes, producing a rank-ordered list of gene variants by selection intensity. Our results illustrate the complementarity of calculating the intensity of selection on mutations along with tallying the prevalence of individual substitutions in cancer: while many of the most prevalently-altered genes were heavily selected, their relative importance to the cancer phenotype differs from their prevalence and from their P value, with some infrequent variants exhibiting evidence of strong positive selection. Furthermore, we extend our analysis of effect size by quantifying the degree to which mutational processes (such as APOBEC mutagenesis) contributes mutations that are highly selected, driving head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. We calculate the substitutions caused by APOBEC mutagenesis that make the greatest contribution to cancer phenotype among patients. Lastly, we demonstrate via in vitro biochemical experiments that the APOBEC3B protein can deaminate the cytosine bases at two sites whose mutant states are subject to high net realized selection intensities-PIK3CA E545K and E542K. By quantifying the effects of mutations, we deepen the molecular understanding of carcinogenesis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Optimal Rates for Phylogenetic Inference and Experimental Design in the Era of Genome-Scale Data Sets

With the rise of genome-scale data sets, there has been a call for increased data scrutiny and careful selection of loci that are appropriate to use in an attempt to resolve a phylogenetic problem. Such loci should maximize phylogenetic information content while minimizing the risk of homoplasy. Theory posits the existence of characters that evolve at an optimum rate, and efforts to determine optimal rates of inference have been a cornerstone of phylogenetic experimental design for over two decades. However, both theoretical and empirical investigations of optimal rates have varied dramatically in their conclusions: spanning no relationship to a tight relationship between the rate of change and phylogenetic utility. Herein, we synthesize these apparently contradictory views, demonstrating both empirical and theoretical conditions under which each is correct. We find that optimal rates of characters-not genes-are generally robust to most experimental design decisions. Moreover, consideration of site rate heterogeneity within a given locus is critical to accurate predictions of utility. Factors such as taxon sampling or the targeted number of characters providing support for a topology are additionally critical to the predictions of phylogenetic utility based on the rate of character change. Further, optimality of rates and predictions of phylogenetic utility are not equivalent, demonstrating the need for further development of comprehensive theory of phylogenetic experimental design. [Divergence time; GC bias; homoplasy; incongruence; information content; internode length; optimal rates; phylogenetic informativeness; phylogenetic theory; phylogenetic utility; phylogenomics; signal and noise; subtending branch length; state space; taxon and character sampling.].