Vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrate food webs to anthropogenic threats in Europe

Vertebrate species worldwide are currently facing significant declines in many populations. Although we have gained substantial knowledge about the direct threats that affect individual species, these threats only represent a fraction of the broader vertebrate threat profile, which is also shaped by species interactions. For example, threats faced by prey species can jeopardize the survival of their predators due to food resource scarcity. Yet, indirect threats arising from species interactions have received limited investigation thus far. In this study, we investigate the indirect consequences of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity in the context of European vertebrate food webs. We integrated data on trophic interactions among over 800 terrestrial vertebrates, along with their associated human-induced threats. We quantified and mapped the vulnerability of various components of the food web, including species, interactions, and trophic groups to six major threats: pollution, agricultural intensification, climate change, direct exploitation, urbanization, and invasive alien species and diseases. Direct exploitation and agricultural intensification were two major threats for terrestrial vertebrate food webs: affecting 34% and 31% of species, respectively, they threaten 85% and 69% of interactions in Europe. By integrating network ecology with threat impact assessments, our study contributes to a better understanding of the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Land-use intensity influences European tetrapod food webs

Land use intensification favours particular trophic groups which can induce architectural changes in food webs. These changes can impact ecosystem functions, services, stability and resilience. However, the imprint of land management intensity on food-web architecture has rarely been characterized across large spatial extent and various land uses. We investigated the influence of land management intensity on six facets of food-web architecture, namely apex and basal species proportions, connectance, omnivory, trophic chain lengths and compartmentalization, for 67,051 European terrestrial vertebrate communities. We also assessed the dependency of this influence of intensification on land use and climate. In addition to more commonly considered climatic factors, the architecture of food webs was notably influenced by land use and management intensity. Intensification tended to strongly lower the proportion of apex predators consistently across contexts. In general, intensification also tended to lower proportions of basal species, favoured mesopredators, decreased food webs compartmentalization whereas it increased their connectance. However, the response of food webs to intensification was different for some contexts. Intensification sharply decreased connectance in Mediterranean and Alpine settlements, and it increased basal tetrapod proportions and compartmentalization in Mediterranean forest and Atlantic croplands. Besides, intensive urbanization especially favoured longer trophic chains and lower omnivory. By favouring mesopredators in most contexts, intensification could undermine basal tetrapods, the cascading effects of which need to be assessed. Our results support the importance of protecting top predators where possible and raise questions about the long-term stability of food webs in the face of human-induced pressures.

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000-2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24-25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection.

Dissimilarity of vertebrate trophic interactions reveals spatial uniqueness but functional redundancy across Europe

Identifying areas that contain species assemblages not found elsewhere in a region is central to conservation planning.1,2 Species assemblages contain networks of species interactions that underpin species dynamics,3,4 ecosystem processes, and contributions to people.5,6,7 Yet the uniqueness of interaction networks in a regional context has rarely been assessed. Here, we estimated the spatial uniqueness of 10,000 terrestrial vertebrate trophic networks across Europe (1,164 species, 50,408 potential interactions8) based on the amount of similarity between all local networks mapped at a 10 km resolution. Our results revealed more unique networks in the Arctic bioregion, but also in southern Europe and isolated islands. We then contrasted the uniqueness of trophic networks with their vulnerability to human footprint and future climate change and measured their coverage within protected areas. This analysis revealed that unique networks situated in southern Europe were particularly exposed to human footprint and that unique networks in the Arctic might be at risk from future climate change. However, considering interaction networks at the level of trophic groups, rather than species, revealed that the general structure of trophic networks was redundant across the continent, in contrast to species' interactions. We argue that proactive European conservation strategies might gain relevance by turning their eyes toward interaction networks that are both unique and vulnerable.

Mediterranean fish communities are struggling to adapt to global warming. Evidence from the western coast of Italy

Climate change has significant impacts on marine ecosystems, resulting in disruptions in biological interactions, shifts in community composition, and changes in the physiology of fish and other marine organisms. In this study conducted in the central Mediterranean Sea, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) was employed as an indicator to investigate the climatological factors influencing the fish community. The MTC, which utilizes species-preferred temperatures, was calculated using bottom temperature (BT) data weighted against scientific catches. The estimated MTC increasing rates were 0.01 °C year-1 for the entire community, 0.017 °C year-1 for the shelf break, and 0.004 °C year-1 for the continental slope assemblage. We found that MTC is increasing at a lower rate compared to BT, suggesting a progressive under-adaptation of the fish community that seems not fully able to keep up with the ongoing pace of warming. The study identified sea surface temperature and bottom temperature as key drivers of changes in fish community composition. Notably, the fish community composition exhibited drastic changes over the studied period, and we suggest that the MTC can be a useful index to monitor such changes within the context of the EU's climate change adaptation strategy.

A dataset on African bats' functional traits

Trait-based approaches are becoming extremely common in ecological modeling and the availability of traits databases is increasing. However, data availability is often biased towards particular regions and taxa, with many taxa (e.g., bats) often under-represented. Here, we present the AfroBaT dataset, a compilation of trait data on 320 African bat species containing 76,914 values for 86 traits focusing on morphology, reproduction, life-history, trophic ecology, and species distributions. All data were gathered from published literature following the ecological trait-data standard procedure. Missing data for both numerical and categorical traits were imputed with a machine learning approach including species phylogeny. Trophic ecology traits showed the highest coverage in the literature (72% of the species averaged over all traits), while reproductive traits the lowest. Our data imputation improved the coverage of AfroBaT especially for reproductive traits, going from 27% to 58% of the species covered. AfroBaT has a range of potential applications in macroecology and community ecology, and the availability of open-access data on African bats will enable collaboration and data-sharing among researchers.

Conical and sabertoothed cats as an exception to craniofacial evolutionary allometry

Among evolutionary trends shaping phenotypic diversity over macroevolutionary scales, CREA (CRaniofacial Evolutionary Allometry) describes a tendency, among closely related species, for the smaller-sized of the group to have proportionally shorter rostra and larger braincases. Here, we used a phylogenetically broad cranial dataset, 3D geometric morphometrics, and phylogenetic comparative methods to assess the validity and strength of CREA in extinct and living felids. To test for the influence of biomechanical constraints, we quantified the impact of relative canine height on cranial shape evolution. Our results provided support to CREA at the family level. Yet, whereas felines support the rule, big cats, like Pantherinae and Machairodontinae, conform weakly if not at all with CREA predictions. Our findings suggest that Machairodontinae constitute one of the first well-supported exceptions to this biological rule currently known, probably in response to the biomechanical demands and developmental changes linked with their peculiar rostral adaptations. Our results suggest that the acquisition of extreme features concerning biomechanics, evo-devo constraints, and/or ecology is likely to be associated with peculiar patterns of morphological evolution, determining potential exceptions to common biological rules, for instance, by inducing variations in common patterns of evolutionary integration due to heterochronic changes under ratchet-like evolution.

Operationalizing One Health: Environmental Solutions for Pandemic Prevention

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health preparedness cycle, largely focusing on post-spillover stages. We argue that pandemic prevention initiatives have yet to produce actionable targets and indicators, connected to overarching goals, like it has been done for biodiversity loss and climate change. We show how the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, already employed by the Convention on Biological Diversity, can be repurposed to operationalize pandemic prevention. Global responses for pandemic prevention should strive for complementarity and synergies among initiatives, better articulating prevention under One Health. Without agreed-upon goals underpinning specific targets and interventions, current global efforts are unlikely to function at the speed and scale necessary to decrease the risk of disease outbreaks that might lead to pandemics. Threats to the environment are not always abatable, but decreasing the likelihood that environmental pressure leads to pandemics, and developing strategies to mitigate these impacts, are both attainable goals.

Not only climate: The importance of biotic interactions in shaping species distributions at macro scales

Abiotic factors are usually considered key drivers of species distribution at macro scales, while biotic interactions are mostly used at local scales. A few studies have explored the role of biotic interactions at macro scales, but all considered a limited number of species and obligate interactions. We examine the role of biotic interactions in large-scale SDMs by testing two main hypotheses: (1) biotic factors in SDMs can have an important role at continental scale; (2) the inclusion of biotic factors in large-scale SDMs is important also for generalist species. We used a maximum entropy algorithm to model the distribution of 177 bat species in Africa calibrating two SDMs for each species: one considering only abiotic variables (noBIO-SDMs) and the other (BIO-SDMs) including also biotic variables (trophic resource richness). We focused the interpretation of our results on variable importance and response curves. For each species, we also compared the potential distribution measuring the percentage of change between the two models in each pixel of the study area. All models gave AUC >0.7, with values on average higher in BIO-SDMs compared to noBIO-SDMs. Trophic resources showed an importance overall higher level than all abiotic predictors in most of the species (~68%), including generalist species. Response curves were highly interpretable in all models, confirming the ecological reliability of our models. Model comparison between the two models showed a change in potential distribution for more than 80% of the species, particularly in tropical forests and shrublands. Our results highlight the importance of considering biotic interactions in SDMs at macro scales. We demonstrated that a generic biotic proxy can be important for modeling species distribution when species-specific data are not available, but we envision that a multi-scale analysis combined with a better knowledge of the species might provide a better understanding of the role of biotic interactions.

The diversity of biotic interactions complements functional and phylogenetic facets of biodiversity

Taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversities are important facets of biodiversity. Studying them together has improved our understanding of community dynamics, ecosystem functioning, and conservation values.^1-3 In contrast to species, traits, and phylogenies, the diversity of biotic interactions has so far been largely ignored as a biodiversity facet in large-scale studies. This neglect represents a crucial shortfall because biotic interactions shape community dynamics, drive important aspects of ecosystem functioning,^4-7 provide services to humans, and have intrinsic conservation value.^8,9 Hence, the diversity of interactions can provide crucial and unique information with respect to other diversity facets. Here, we leveraged large datasets of trophic interactions, functional traits, phylogenies, and spatial distributions of >1,000 terrestrial vertebrate species across Europe at a 10-km resolution. We computed the diversity of interactions (interaction diversity [ID]) in addition to functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). After controlling for species richness, surplus and deficits of ID were neither correlated with FD nor with PD, thus representing unique and complementary information to the commonly studied facets of diversity. A three-dimensional mapping allowed for visualizing different combinations of ID-FD-PD simultaneously. Interestingly, the spatial distribution of these diversity combinations closely matched the boundaries between 10 European biogeographic regions and revealed new interaction-rich areas in the European Boreal region and interaction-poor areas in Central Europe. Our study demonstrates that the diversity of interactions adds new and ecologically relevant information to multifacetted, large-scale diversity studies with implications for understanding eco-evolutionary processes and informing conservation planning.

Addressing the Eltonian shortfall with trait-based interaction models

We have very limited knowledge of how species interact in most communities and ecosystems despite trophic relationships being fundamental for linking biodiversity to ecosystem functioning. A promising approach to fill this gap is to predict interactions based on functional traits, but many questions remain about how well we can predict interactions for different taxa, ecosystems and amounts of input data. Here, we built a new traits-based model of trophic interactions for European vertebrates and found that even models calibrated with 0.1% of the interactions (100 out of 71 k) estimated the full European vertebrate food web reasonably well. However, predators were easier to predict than prey, especially for some clades (e.g. fowl and storks) and local food web connectance was consistently overestimated. Our results demonstrate the ability to rapidly generate food webs when empirical data are lacking-an important step towards a more complete and spatially explicit description of food webs.

New Avenues for Old Travellers: Phenotypic Evolutionary Trends Meet Morphodynamics, and Both Enter the Global Change Biology Era

Evolutionary trends (ETs) are traditionally defined as substantial changes in the state of traits through time produced by a persistent condition of directional evolution. ETs might also include directional responses to ecological, climatic or biological gradients and represent the primary evolutionary pattern at high taxonomic levels and over long-time scales. The absence of a well-supported operative definition of ETs blurred the definition of conceptual differences between ETs and other key concepts in evolution such as convergence, parallel evolution, and divergence. Also, it prevented the formulation of modern guidelines for studying ETs and evolutionary dynamics related to them. In phenotypic evolution, the theory of morphodynamics states that the interplay between evolutionary factors such as phylogeny, evo-devo constraints, environment, and biological function determines morphological evolution. After introducing a new operative definition, here we provide a morphodynamics-based framework for studying phenotypic ETs, discussing how understanding the impact of these factors on ETs improves the explanation of links between biological patterns and processes underpinning directional evolution. We envisage that adopting a quantitative, pattern-based, and multifactorial approach will pave the way to new potential applications for this field of evolutionary biology. In this framework, by exploiting the catalysing effect of climate change on evolution, research on ETs induced by global change might represent an ideal arena for validating hypotheses about the predictability of evolution.

Balancing conservation priorities for nature and for people in Europe

There is an urgent need to protect key areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people (NCP). However, different values of nature are rarely considered together in conservation planning. Here, we explore potential priority areas in Europe for biodiversity (all terrestrial vertebrates) and a set of cultural and regulating NCP while considering demand for these NCP. We quantify the spatial overlap between these priorities and their performance in representing different values of nature. We show that different priorities rarely coincide, except in certain irreplaceable ecosystems. Notably, priorities for biodiversity better represent NCP than the reverse. Theoretically, protecting an extra 5% of land has the potential to double conservation gains for biodiversity while also maintaining some essential NCP, leading to co-benefits for both nature and people.

Testing the occurrence of convergence in the craniomandibular shape evolution of living carnivorans

Convergence consists in the independent evolution of similar traits in distantly related species. The mammalian craniomandibular complex constitutes an ideal biological structure to investigate ecomorphological dynamics and the carnivorans, due to their phenotypic variability and ecological flexibility, offer an interesting case study to explore the occurrence of convergent evolution. Here, we applied multiple pattern‐based metrics to test the occurrence of convergence in the craniomandibular shape of extant carnivorans. To this aim, we tested for convergence in many dietary groups and analyzed several cases of carnivoran convergence concerning either ecologically equivalent species or ecologically similar species of different body sizes described in the literature. Our results validate the occurrence of convergence in ecologically equivalent species in a few cases (as well as in the case of giant and red pandas), but almost never support the occurrence of convergent evolution in dietary categories of living carnivorans. Therefore, convergent evolution in this clade appears to be a rare phenomenon. This is probably the consequence of a complex interplay of one‐to‐many, many‐to‐one, and many‐to‐many relationships taking place between ecology, biomechanics, and morphology.

The spatial scaling of food web structure across European biogeographical regions

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most well-established scaling patterns in ecology. Its implications for understanding how communities change across spatial gradients are numerous, including the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity. However, ecological communities are not mere collections of species. They are the result of interactions between these species forming complex networks that tie them together. Should we aim to grasp the spatial scaling of biodiversity as a whole, it is fundamental to understand the changes in the structure of interaction networks with area. In spite of a few empirical and theoretical studies that address this challenge, we still do not know much about how network structure changes with area, or what are the main environmental drivers of these changes. Here, using the meta-network of potential interactions between all terrestrial vertebrates in Europe (1140 species and 67 201 feeding interactions), we analysed network-area relationships (NARs) that summarize how network properties scale with area. We do this across ten biogeographical regions, which differ in environmental characteristics. We found that the spatial scaling of network complexity strongly varied across biogeographical regions. However, once the variation in SARs was accounted for, differences in the shape of NARs vanished. On the other hand, the proportion of species across trophic levels remained remarkably constant across biogeographical regions and spatial scales, despite the great variation in species richness. Spatial variation in mean annual temperature and habitat clustering were the main environmental determinants of the shape of both SARs and NARs across Europe. Our results suggest new avenues in the exploration of the effects of environmental factors on the spatial scaling of biodiversity. We argue that NARs can provide new insights to analyse and understand ecological communities.

Reconstructing hotspots of genetic diversity from glacial refugia and subsequent dispersal in Italian common toads (Bufo bufo)

Genetic diversity feeds the evolutionary process and allows populations to adapt to environmental changes. However, we still lack a thorough understanding of why hotspots of genetic diversity are so 'hot'. Here, we analysed the relative contribution of bioclimatic stability and genetic admixture between divergent lineages in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity in the common toad Bufo bufo along the Italian peninsula. We combined population genetic, phylogeographic and species distribution modelling (SDM) approaches to map ancestral areas, glacial refugia, and secondary contact zones. We consistently identified three phylogeographic lineages, distributed in northern, central and southern Italy. These lineages expanded from their ancestral areas and established secondary contact zones, before the last interglacial. SDM identified widespread glacial refugia in peninsular Italy, sometimes located under the present-day sea-level. Generalized linear models indicated genetic admixture as the only significant predictor of the levels of population genetic diversity. Our results show that glacial refugia contributed to preserving both levels and patterns of genetic diversity across glacial-interglacial cycles, but not to their formation, and highlight a general principle emerging in Mediterranean species: higher levels of genetic diversity mark populations with substantial contributions from multiple genetic lineages, irrespective of the location of glacial refugia.

A Major Change in Rate of Climate Niche Envelope Evolution during Hominid History

Homo sapiens is the only species alive able to take advantage of its cognitive abilities to inhabit almost all environments on Earth. Humans are able to culturally construct, rather than biologically inherit, their occupied climatic niche to a degree unparalleled within the animal kingdom. Precisely, when hominins acquired such an ability remains unknown, and scholars disagree on the extent to which our ancestors shared this same ability. Here, we settle this issue using fine-grained paleoclimatic data, extensive archaeological data, and phylogenetic comparative methods. Our results indicate that whereas early hominins were forced to live under physiologically suitable climatic conditions, with the emergence of H. heidelbergensis, the Homo climatic niche expanded beyond its natural limits, despite progressive harshening in global climates. This indicates that technological innovations providing effective exploitation of cold and seasonal habitats predated the emergence of Homo sapiens.

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Homo sapiens oversteps our ecological niche limits by means of culture

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The origin of Homo niche-construction ability is unknown

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We found Homo species other than H. sapiens were able to construct their own niche

Endemism and diversity in European montane mammals: macro-ecological patterns

Mountains are important landforms with regard to both biodiversity and evolution of endemism. We analysed macro-ecological patterns of distribution and endemism of European montane (i.e. with at least 70% of their range inside mountain areas) mammals. The landscape of the study area was characterized by three environmental variables: land cover, land-use and elevation. For each species, we collected spatially explicit information on the extent of occurrence, level of endemicity, conservation status, habitat preferences, elevation range and all the available presence points. Montane species accounted for 25.5% of the total (N = 66), whereas lowland species (N = 193) accounted for 74.5% of the total European mammals. There was a significantly lower mean range in size of montane species compared to non-montane species. There was a negative correlation between the number of species and elevation, and a negative correlation between median elevation of the range of a given species and its extent of occurrence. The highest peak in the percentage of species present in each altitudinal band was observed at lower elevations in the lower altitude mountain chains. There was a significantly negative correlation between elevation and Simpson’s index of habitats, but species richness increased significantly with Simpson’s index of habitat diversity. A total of 122 species (40.7%) were European endemics, with the frequencies of endemic species not being different between montane areas and overall. A logistic regression model showed that, for a given species, being montane also enhanced the probability of being endemic to Europe. Montane species are especially concentrated in the Caucasus, along the Turkish coast of the Black Sea. The area of the various mountain chains did not influence either the number of montane species or the number of montane species that are strictly endemic to that mountain chain. A total of 45 endemic montane species were recorded for the study region, with only ten being of conservation concern according to IUCN criteria.

Meta-omics reveals genetic flexibility of diatom nitrogen transporters in response to environmental changes

Diatoms (Bacillariophyta), one of the most abundant and diverse groups of marine phytoplankton, respond rapidly to the supply of new nutrients, often out-competing other phytoplankton. Herein, we integrated analyses of the evolution, distribution and expression modulation of two gene families involved in diatom nitrogen uptake (DiAMT1 and DiNRT2), in order to infer the main drivers of divergence in a key functional trait of phytoplankton. Our results suggest that major steps in the evolution of the two gene families reflected key events triggering diatom radiation and diversification. Their expression is modulated in the contemporary ocean by seawater temperature, nitrate and iron concentrations. Moreover, the differences in diversity and expression of these gene families throughout the water column hint at a possible link with bacterial activity. This study represents a proof-of-concept of how a holistic approach may shed light on the functional biology of organisms in their natural environment.

Environment and evolutionary history shape phylogenetic turnover in European tetrapods

Phylogenetic turnover quantifies the evolutionary distance among species assemblages and is central to understanding the main drivers shaping biodiversity. It is affected both by geographic and environmental distance between sites. Therefore, analyzing phylogenetic turnover in environmental space requires removing the effect of geographic distance. Here, we apply a novel approach by deciphering phylogenetic turnover of European tetrapods in environmental space after removing geographic land distance effects. We demonstrate that phylogenetic turnover is strongly structured in environmental space, particularly in ectothermic tetrapods, and is well explained by macroecological characteristics such as niche size, species richness and relative phylogenetic diversity. In ectotherms, rather recent evolutionary processes were important in structuring phylogenetic turnover along environmental gradients. In contrast, early evolutionary processes had already shaped the current structure of phylogenetic turnover in endotherms. Our approach enables the disentangling of the idiosyncrasies of evolutionary processes such as the degree of niche conservatism and diversification rates in structuring biodiversity.

Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.

Reconstructing geographical parthenogenesis: effects of niche differentiation and reproductive mode on Holocene range expansion of an alpine plant

Asexual taxa often have larger ranges than their sexual progenitors, particularly in areas affected by Pleistocene glaciations. The reasons given for this 'geographical parthenogenesis' are contentious, with expansion of the ecological niche or colonisation advantages of uniparental reproduction assumed most important in case of plants. Here, we parameterized a spread model for the alpine buttercup Ranunculus kuepferi and reconstructed the joint Holocene range expansion of its sexual and apomictic cytotype across the European Alps under different simulation settings. We found that, rather than niche broadening or a higher migration rate, a shift of the apomict's niche towards colder conditions per se was crucial as it facilitated overcoming of topographical barriers, a factor likely relevant for many alpine apomicts. More generally, our simulations suggest potentially strong interacting effects of niche differentiation and reproductive modes on range formation of related sexual and asexual taxa arising from their differential sensitivity to minority cytotype disadvantage.

Least speciose among the most speciose: Natural history correlates of monospecific and bispecific genera of Rodentia and Soricomorpha

Monospecific and bispecific genera are of special concern as they represent unique phylogenetic/evolutionary trajectories within larger clades. In addition, as phylogenetically older taxa are supposed to be exposed to higher rarity and extinction risk, monospecific and bispecific genera may be intrinsically more prone to extinction risks than multispecies genera, although extinction risks also depend on the ecological and biological strategy of the species. Here, the distribution across biogeographical zones and the levels of threat to 2 speciose orders of mammals (monospecific and bispecific genera of Rodentia and Soricomorpha) are investigated in order to highlight major patterns at the worldwide scale. In Rodentia, 39.7% of the genera (n = 490) were monospecific and 17.9% were bispecific. In Soricomorpha, 44.4% of the total genera (n = 45) were monospecific and 15% were bispecific. There was a positive correlation between the number of monospecific genera and the total number of genera per family. Peaks of monospecific and bispecific genera richness were observed in Neotropical, Oriental and Afrotropical regions in rodents and in the Palearctic region in soricomorphs. Range size was significantly uneven across biogeographic region in rodents (with larger ranges in Nearctic and Oriental regions and smaller ranges in the Australian region), but there was no difference across biogeographic regions in terms of range size in soricomorphs. Most of the monospecific and bispecific genera occurred in forest habitat in both taxa. The frequency distribution of the monospecific and bispecific genera across IUCN categories did not differ significantly from the expected pattern using the total rodent genera and the multispecies genera.

Climate change promotes hybridisation between deeply divergent species

Rare hybridisations between deeply divergent animal species have been reported for decades in a wide range of taxa, but have often remained unexplained, mainly considered chance events and reported as anecdotal. Here, we combine field observations with long-term data concerning natural hybridisations, climate, land-use, and field-validated species distribution models for two deeply divergent and naturally sympatric toad species in Europe (Bufo bufo and Bufotes viridis species groups). We show that climate warming and seasonal extreme temperatures are conspiring to set the scene for these maladaptive hybridisations, by differentially affecting life-history traits of both species. Our results identify and provide evidence of an ultimate cause for such events, and reveal that the potential influence of climate change on interspecific hybridisations goes far beyond closely related species. Furthermore, climate projections suggest that the chances for these events will steadily increase in the near future.

Temperature Range Shifts for Three European Tree Species over the Last 10,000 Years

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

On how much biodiversity is covered in Europe by national protected areas and by the Natura 2000 network: insights from terrestrial vertebrates

The European Union has made extensive biodiversity conservation efforts with the Habitats and Birds Directives and with the establishment of the Natura 2000 network of protected areas, one of the largest networks of conservation areas worldwide. We performed a gap analysis of the entire Natura 2000 system plus national protected areas and all terrestrial vertebrates (freshwater fish excluded). We also evaluated the level of connectivity of both systems, providing therefore a first estimate of the functionality of the Natura 2000 system as an effective network of protected areas. Together national protected areas and the Natura 2000 network covered more than one-third of the European Union. National protected areas did not offer protection to 13 total gap species (i.e., species not covered by any protected area) or to almost 300 partial gap species (i.e., species whose representation target is not met). Together the Natura 2000 network and national protected areas left 1 total gap species and 121 partial gap species unprotected. The terrestrial vertebrates listed in the Habitats and Birds Directives were relatively well covered (especially birds), and overall connectivity was improved considerably by Natura 2000 sites that act as stepping stones between national protected areas. Overall, we found that the Natura 2000 network represents at continental level an important network of protected areas that acts as a good complement to existing national protected areas. However, a number of problems remain that are mainly linked to the criteria used to list the species in the Habitats and Birds Directives. The European Commission initiated in 2014 a process aimed at assessing the importance of the Birds and Habitats Directives for biodiversity conservation. Our results contribute to this assessment and suggest the system is largely effective for terrestrial vertebrates but would benefit from further updating of the species lists and field management.

Conserving the functional and phylogenetic trees of life of European tetrapods

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal tools for biodiversity conservation on the Earth. Europe has had an extensive protection system since Natura 2000 areas were created in parallel with traditional parks and reserves. However, the extent to which this system covers not only taxonomic diversity but also other biodiversity facets, such as evolutionary history and functional diversity, has never been evaluated. Using high-resolution distribution data of all European tetrapods together with dated molecular phylogenies and detailed trait information, we first tested whether the existing European protection system effectively covers all species and in particular, those with the highest evolutionary or functional distinctiveness. We then tested the ability of PAs to protect the entire tetrapod phylogenetic and functional trees of life by mapping species' target achievements along the internal branches of these two trees. We found that the current system is adequately representative in terms of the evolutionary history of amphibians while it fails for the rest. However, the most functionally distinct species were better represented than they would be under random conservation efforts. These results imply better protection of the tetrapod functional tree of life, which could help to ensure long-term functioning of the ecosystem, potentially at the expense of conserving evolutionary history.

Spatial mismatch of phylogenetic diversity across three vertebrate groups and protected areas in Europe

AIM

We investigate patterns of phylogenetic diversity in relation to species diversity for European birds, mammals and amphibians, to evaluate their congruence and highlight areas of particular evolutionary history. We estimate the extent to which the European network of protected areas (PAs) network retains interesting evolutionary history areas for the three groups separately and simultaneously.

LOCATION

Europe.

METHODS

Phylogenetic (QE_PD) and species diversity (SD) were estimated using the Rao's quadratic entropy at 10' resolution. We determined the regional relationship between QE_PD and SD for each taxa with a spatial regression model and used the tails of the residuals (QE_RES) distribution to identify areas of higher and lower QE_PD than predicted. Spatial congruence of biodiversity between groups was assessed with Pearson's correlation. A simple classification scheme allowed building a convergence map where a convergent pixel equalled to a QE_RES value of the same sign for the 3 groups. This convergence map was overlaid to the current PAs network to estimate the level of protection in convergent pixels and compared it to a null expectation built on 1000 randomization of PAs over the landscape.

RESULTS

QE_RES patterns across vertebrates show a strong spatial mismatch highlighting different evolutionary histories. Convergent areas represent only 2.7% of the Western Palearctic, with only 8.4% of these areas being covered by the current PAs network while a random distribution would retain 10.4% of them. QE_RES are unequally represented within PAs: areas with higher QE_PD than predicted are better covered than expected, while low QE_PD areas are undersampled.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Patterns of diversity strongly diverge between groups of vertebrates in Europe. Although Europe has the world's most extensive PAs network, evolutionary history of terrestrial vertebrates is unequally protected. The challenge is now to reconcile effective conservation planning with a contemporary view of biodiversity integrating multiple facets.

Ensemble distribution models in conservation prioritization: from consensus predictions to consensus reserve networks

AIM

Conservation planning exercises increasingly rely on species distributions predicted either from one particular statistical model or, more recently, from an ensemble of models (i.e. ensemble forecasting). However, it has not yet been explored how different ways of summarizing ensemble predictions affect conservation planning outcomes. We evaluate these effects and compare commonplace consensus methods, applied before the conservation prioritization phase, to a novel method that applies consensus after reserve selection.

LOCATION

Europe.

METHODS

We used an ensemble of predicted distributions of 146 Western Palaearctic bird species in alternative ways: four different consensus methods, as well as distributions discounted with variability, were used to produce inputs for spatial conservation prioritization. In addition, we developed and tested a novel method, in which we built 100 datasets by sampling the ensemble of predicted distributions, ran a conservation prioritization analysis on each of them and averaged the resulting priority ranks. We evaluated the conservation outcome against three controls: (i) a null control, based on random ranking of cells; (2) the reference solution, based on an expert-refined dataset; and (3) the independent solution, based on an independent dataset.

RESULTS

Networks based on predicted distributions were more representative of rare species than randomly selected networks. Alternative methods to summarize ensemble predictions differed in representativeness of resulting reserve networks. Our novel method resulted in better representation of rare species than pre-selection consensus methods.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Retaining information about the variation in the predicted distributions throughout the conservation prioritization seems to provide better results than summarizing the predictions before conservation prioritization. Our results highlight the need to understand and consider model-based uncertainty when using predicted distribution data in conservation prioritization.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in Europe

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21^st century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran’s I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

The use of climatic niches in screening procedures for introduced species to evaluate risk of spread: a case with the American Eastern grey squirrel

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

Setting priorities for regional conservation planning in the Mediterranean Sea

Spatial prioritization in conservation is required to direct limited resources to where actions are most urgently needed and most likely to produce effective conservation outcomes. In an effort to advance the protection of a highly threatened hotspot of marine biodiversity, the Mediterranean Sea, multiple spatial conservation plans have been developed in recent years. Here, we review and integrate these different plans with the goal of identifying priority conservation areas that represent the current consensus among the different initiatives. A review of six existing and twelve proposed conservation initiatives highlights gaps in conservation and management planning, particularly within the southern and eastern regions of the Mediterranean and for offshore and deep sea habitats. The eighteen initiatives vary substantially in their extent (covering 0.1-58.5% of the Mediterranean Sea) and in the location of additional proposed conservation and management areas. Differences in the criteria, approaches and data used explain such variation. Despite the diversity among proposals, our analyses identified ten areas, encompassing 10% of the Mediterranean Sea, that are consistently identified among the existing proposals, with an additional 10% selected by at least five proposals. These areas represent top priorities for immediate conservation action. Despite the plethora of initiatives, major challenges face Mediterranean biodiversity and conservation. These include the need for spatial prioritization within a comprehensive framework for regional conservation planning, the acquisition of additional information from data-poor areas, species or habitats, and addressing the challenges of establishing transboundary governance and collaboration in socially, culturally and politically complex conditions. Collective prioritised action, not new conservation plans, is needed for the north, western, and high seas of the Mediterranean, while developing initial information-based plans for the south and eastern Mediterranean is an urgent requirement for true regional conservation planning.