Clinical outcomes and risk factors for immune recovery and all-cause mortality in Latin Americans living with HIV with virological success: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Immune reconstitution following antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is crucial to prevent AIDS and non-AIDS-related comorbidities. Patients with suppressed viraemia who fail to restore cellular immunity are exposed to an increased risk of morbidity and mortality during long-term follow-up, although the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We aim to describe clinical outcomes and factors associated with the worse immune recovery and all-cause mortality in people living with HIV (PLWH) from Latin America following ART initiation.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using the CCASAnet database: PLWH ≥18 years of age at ART initiation using a three drug-based combination therapy and with medical follow-up for ≥24 months after ART initiation and undetectable viral load were included. Patients were divided into four immune recovery groups based on rounded quartiles of increase in CD4 T-cell count at 2 years of treatment (<150, [150, 250), [250, 350] and >350 cells/mm3 ). Primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, AIDS-defining events and non-communicable diseases that occurred >2 years after ART initiation. Factors associated with an increase in CD4 T-cell count at 2 years of treatment were evaluated using a cumulative probability model with a logit link.

RESULTS

In our cohort of 4496 Latin American PLWH, we found that patients with the lowest CD4 increase (<150) had the lowest survival probability at 10 years of follow-up. Lower increase in CD4 count following therapy initiation (and remarkably not a lower baseline CD4 T-cell count) and older age were risk factors for all-cause mortality. We also found that older age, male sex and higher baseline CD4 T-cell count were associated with lower CD4 count increase following therapy initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that PLWH with lower increases in CD4 count have lower survival probabilities. CD4 increase during follow-up might be a better predictor of mortality in undetectable PLWH than baseline CD4 count. Therefore, it should be included as a routine clinical variable to assess immune recovery and overall survival.

Pharmacotherapeutic profile, polypharmacy and its associated factors in a cohort of people living with HIV in Brazil

BACKGROUND

The increased survival provided by the access, development, and evolution of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) greatly increased the life expectancy of people living with HIV (PWH). This has also led to an increased occurrence of diseases or morbidities related to aging. In individuals with multiple comorbidities, the simultaneous use of multiple medications, also known as polypharmacy, is common, and rational use of medications is essential. This study aims to describe the pharmacotherapeutic profile, estimate the prevalence of polypharmacy and identify factors associated with polypharmacy in a cohort of adult PWH from a referral unit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study including PWH on ARV who received at least one medical prescription (outpatient/hospitalized) in 2019. We described the proportion of prescribed medications according to ARV and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classes stratified by age (< 50 vs. ≥50 years). Polypharmacy was defined as ≥ 5 medications prescribed beyond ARV. Logistic regression models assessed demographic and clinical factors associated with polypharmacy.

RESULTS

A total of 143,306 prescriptions of 4547 PWH were analyzed. Median age was 44.4 years (IQR:35.4-54.1) and 1615 (35.6%) were ≥ 50 years. A total of 2958 (65.1%) participants self-identified as cisgender man, 1365 (30.0%) as cisgender woman, and 224 (4.9%) as transgender women. Most self-declared Black/Pardo (2582; 65.1%) and 1984 (44.0%) completed elementary education or less. Median time since HIV diagnosis was 10.9 years (IQR:6.2-17.7). Most frequently prescribed concomitant medications were nervous system (64.8%), antiinfectives for systemic use (60.0%), alimentary tract and metabolism (45.9%), cardiovascular system (40.0%) and respiratory system (37.1%). Prevalence of polypharmacy was 50.6% (95%CI: 49.2-52.1). Model results indicated that being older, self-identify as cisgender woman, having less education and longer time since HIV diagnosis increased the odds of polypharmacy.

CONCLUSIONS

We found high rates of polypharmacy and concomitant medication use in a cohort of PWH in Brazil. Targeted interventions should be prioritized to prevent interactions and improve treatment, especially among individuals using central nervous system and cardiovascular medications, as well as certain groups such as cisgender women, older individuals and those with lower education. Standardized protocols for continuous review of patients' therapeutic regimens should be implemented.

Evaluation of Mpox Knowledge, Stigma, and Willingness to Vaccinate for Mpox: Cross-Sectional Web-Based Survey Among Sexual and Gender Minorities

BACKGROUND

The 2022 multicountry mpox outbreak positioned the condition as a public health emergency of international concern. By May 2023, Brazil ranked second globally in the cumulative number of mpox cases and deaths. The higher incidence of mpox among gay and other men who have sex with men in the current mpox outbreak deepens the stigma and discrimination against sexual and gender minorities (SGM). This might worsen the structural barriers impacting access to health services, which ultimately leads to undertesting and underreporting of cases. There are no data available on mpox knowledge and stigma in Latin America.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate mpox knowledge, stigma, and willingness to vaccinate for mpox among SGM, and to describe sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics according to self-reported mpox diagnosis.

METHODS

A cross-sectional, internet-based survey was conducted in a convenience sample of adults (aged >18 years) living in Brazil recruited through advertisements on dating apps, social media, referral institutions for infectious diseases websites, and mass media (October-November 2022). We compared participants' characteristics according to self-reported mpox diagnosis using chi-square test or Fisher exact test for qualitative variables and Kruskal-Wallis test for quantitative variables.

RESULTS

We enrolled 6236 participants: 5685 (91.2%) were cisgender men; 6032 (96.7%) were gay, bisexual, or pansexual; 3877 (62.2%) were White; 4902 (78.7%) had tertiary education; and 4070 (65.2%) reported low or middle income. Most participants (n=5258, 84.4%) agreed or strongly agreed that "LGBTQIA+ individuals are being discriminated and stigmatized due to mpox." Mpox awareness was 96.9% (n=6044), and 5008 (95.1%) were willing to get vaccinated for mpox. Overall, 324 (5.2%) reported an mpox diagnosis. Among these, 318 (98.1%) reported lesions, 178 (56%) local pain, and 316 (99.4%) sought health care. Among participants not reporting a diagnosis, 288 (4.9%) had a suspicious lesion, but only 158 (54.9%) of these had sought health care. Compared to participants with no diagnosis, those reporting an mpox diagnosis were younger (P<.001), reported more sex partners (P<.001), and changes in sexual behavior after mpox onset (P=.002). Moreover, participants diagnosed with mpox reported more frequently being tested for HIV in the prior 3 months (P<.001), living with HIV (P<.001), currently using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (P<.001), and previous sexually transmitted infection diagnosis (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results point to high mpox knowledge and willingness to vaccinate among SGM in Brazil. Participants self-reporting mpox diagnosis more frequently reported to be living with HIV, STI diagnosis, and current pre-exposure prophylaxis use, highlighting the importance of an mpox assessment that includes comprehensive sexual health screenings. Efforts to decrease stigma related to mpox among SGM are necessary to avoid mpox underdiagnosis.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study

Background

Brazil started the COVID-19 mass vaccination in January 2021 with CoronaVac and ChAdOx1, followed by BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. By the end of 2021, more than 317 million vaccine doses were administered in the adult population. This study aimed at estimating the effectiveness of the primary series of COVID-19 vaccination and booster shots in protecting against severe cases and deaths in Brazil during the first year of vaccination.

Methods

A cohort dataset of over 158 million vaccination and severe cases records linked from official national registries was analyzed via a mixed-effects Poisson model, adjusted for age, state of residence, time after immunization, and calendar time to estimate the absolute vaccine effectiveness of the primary series of vaccination and the relative effectiveness of the booster. The method permitted analysis of effectiveness against hospitalizations and deaths, including in the periods of variant dominance.

Findings

Vaccine effectiveness against severe cases and deaths remained over 25% and 50%, respectively, after 19 weeks from primary vaccination of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, or CoronaVac vaccines. The boosters conferred greater protection than the primary series of vaccination, with heterologous boosters providing marginally greater protection than homologous. The effectiveness against hospitalization during the Omicron dominance in the 60+ years old population started at 61.7% (95% CI, 26.1-86.2) for ChAdOx1, 95.6% (95% CI, 82.4-99.9) for CoronaVac, and 72.3% (95% CI, 51.4-87.4) for the BNT162b2 vaccine.

Interpretation

This study provides real-world evidence of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil, including during the Omicron wave, demonstrating protection even after waning effectiveness. Comparisons of the effectiveness among different vaccines require caution due to potential bias effects related to age groups, periods in the pandemic, and eventual behavioural changes.

Funding

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia da Secretaria de Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovação e Insumos Estratégicos em Saúde do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil (DECIT/SCTIE/MS).

Preferences for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among sexual and gender minorities: a discrete choice experiment in Brazil

Background

Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) are disproportionally affected by HIV infection in Latin America. This study aims to assess pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) preferences among sexual and gender minorities (SGM) and identify attributes and levels that are related to PrEP uptake and adherence, both crucial for PrEP success.

Methods

We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) among SGM from all Brazilian regions (September-December/2020). The survey was administered face-to-face (five Brazilian capitals) and online (entire country). We used a D-efficient zero-prior blocked experimental design to select 60 paired-profile DCE choice tasks.

Findings

The total sample size was 3924 (90.5% MSM; 7.2% TGW and 2.3% non-binary or gender diverse persons). In random-effects logit models, highest levels of protection and "no side effects" were the most important attribute levels. For "presentation", injectable and implant were preferred over oral. Participants were willing to accept a 4.1% protection reduction to receive injectable PrEP or a 4.2% reduction if PrEP were taken monthly. The largest class in the latent class models was defined predominantly by the preference for the highest HIV protection level (p < 0.005). Respondents in this class also preferred no side effects, injectable and implant presentations.

Interpretation

Higher HIV protection, no side effects, and presentation, whether injectable or implant, were the most important attributes in PrEP preferences. Protection against HIV was the most important attribute. PrEP programs should make available technologies such as long-acting presentations that could reunite the most desired attributes, thus maximizing acceptability and user-appropriateness.

Funding

Unitaid.

Clinical effects of durability of immunosuppression in virologically suppressed ART-initiating persons with HIV in Latin America. A retrospective cohort study

Background

Clinical outcomes are rarely studied in virologically suppressed people living with HIV (PWH) and incomplete CD4 recovery. To explore whether time living with severe immunosuppression predict clinical outcomes better than baseline or time updated CD4, we estimated the association between cumulative percentage of time with CD4 <200 cells/μL during viral suppression (VS) (%tCD4<200), and mortality and comorbidities during 2000-2019.

Methods

In a retrospective cohort analysis, we followed PWH initiating ART in Latin America from first VS (HIV-RNA<200 copies/μL) to death, virological failure or loss to follow-up. We fit Cox models to estimate risk of death and/or AIDS-defining and serious non-AIDS-defining events (ADE and SNADE -cancer, cardiovascular, liver, and renal diseases) by %tCD4<200 (continuous variable). We predicted survival probabilities for each event and calculated risks of hypothetical cases of different %tCD4<200.

Findings

In 8,369 patients with 34·9 months of follow-up (median, IQR: 16·7, 69·1), 4,274 (51%) started ART with CD4<200 cells/μL. Median %tCD4<200 was 0% (IQR: 0, 15%). We identified 195 (2·3%) deaths and 584 (7·2%) patients with ADE/SNADE. For an increased %tCD4<200 of 15% (e.g., 15% vs. 0%), the adjusted relative hazard (aHR) of death was 1·27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·19 - 1·35), of ADE/SNADE was 1·13 (95%CI: 1·09 - 1·17), of SNADE was 0·96 (95%CI: 0·89 - 1·02) and of death/ADE/SNADE was 1·11 (95%CI: 1·07 - 1·14). Estimates were similar after adjusting for time updated CD4 count.

Interpretation

In virologically suppressed PWH, increased time living with severe immunosuppression had an increased risk of death and ADE/SNADE in this Latin American cohort, independently of time updated CD4 count.

Funding

This work was supported by the NIH-funded Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet, U01AI069923), a member cohort of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (leDEA). This award is funded by the following institutes: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute Of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD), National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institute Of Allergy And Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institute Of Mental Health (NIMH), the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), and the Fogarty International Center (FIC). Specific funding was provided from the Fogarty International Center (FIC) for lead author, Yanink Caro-Vega, for the Fogarty-IeDEA Mentorship Program (FIMP).

Prevalence and factors associated with suicidal behavior among trans women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Trans women face disproportionate burden of adverse health outcomes, including mental health issues. Very little is known about suicidal behavior among trans women in low- and middle-income settings, such as Brazil. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of lifetime suicidal behavior and to identify its associated factors among Brazilian trans women.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted among 345 trans women living in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We examined the prevalence of suicidal behavior (ideation and suicide attempt) and its associated factors using stepwise backward Poisson regression analysis with robust variance.

RESULTS

Suicidal ideation was present among 47.25% of participants, and the prevalence of lifetime suicide attempt was 27.25%. Trans women with prior physical violence perpetrated by a family member had significantly higher prevalence of suicidal ideation (adjusted prevalence ratios [aPR]1.37), whereas those who reported sex work had lower prevalence ratio of suicidal ideation (aPR 0.76). Suicide attempt was significantly associated with living alone (aPR 1.48), physical violence by a casual partner (aPR 1.92), and sexual violence by a family member (aPR 1.69). Depression was significantly associated with both outcomes (aPR 1.90 for suicidal ideation and aPR 2.21 for suicide attempt).

CONCLUSION

Suicidal behavior prevalence rates among Brazilian trans women were alarming and directly linked to violence and poor mental health. Effective mental health and public health policies addressing violence against trans women are urgently needed to prevent suicidal behavior among this highly vulnerable population.

Preferences for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men and transgender women at risk of HIV infection: a multicentre protocol for a discrete choice experiment in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important and well-established prevention strategy for sexual acquisition of HIV. In Brazil, transgender women (TGW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) bear the largest burden among key populations. Little is known about preferences for PrEP characteristics in these vulnerable populations in Latin America. The goal of this study is to investigate preferences of TGW and MSM with respect to PrEP characteristics, whether current user or not, and to assess any attributes and levels that may improve the decision to start using PrEP (uptake) and optimal continuity of use (adherence), which are important dimensions for PrEP success.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We hereby outline the protocol of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to be conducted among TGW and MSM in Brazil. The study will be carried out in two phases. The first phase involves literature review and qualitative approaches including in-depth interviews to inform the development of the DCE (attributes and levels). The second phase entails the DCE survey and supporting questions pertaining to sociodemographic and risk behaviour information. The survey is aimed at current PrEP users and non-users, consisting of two modes of administration: face to face in five Brazilian capitals (Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus, Porto Alegre and Salvador) and online targeting the entire country. A D-efficient zero-prior blocked experimental design will be used to select 60 paired-profile DCE choice tasks, in which participants will be randomly assigned to one of four groups and presented with a set of 15 choice tasks. The planned sample size is 1000 volunteers.

ETHICS, TIMELINE AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa-Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas-INI/FIOCRUZ, CEP/INI, CAAE 28416220.2.1001.5262, approval number 3.979.759 in accordance with the Comissão Nacional de Ética em Pesquisa (CONEP-Brazilian National Board of Research Ethics). The study will be conducted between 2020 and 2021. The results will be disseminated to the scientific community and to the public in general through publications in published in peer-reviewed journals and in scientific conferences.

Factors associated with self-reported adherence to daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with man and transgender women: PrEP Brasil study

Understanding the factors associated with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) adherence may help in the development of strategies to support, motivate and sustain PrEP use. This study estimated self-reported adherence, described perceived barriers and facilitators and investigated factors associated with adherence to daily oral PrEP among men who have sex with man (MSM) and transgender women after 1 year of PrEP use in Brazil. PrEP Brasil was a prospective, multicentre, open-label demonstration study with MSM and transgender women at high risk for HIV infection. We used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with complete adherence (not forgetting to take any pills in the past 30 days) at week 48. Of 338 participants included in this analysis, 60% reported complete adherence to daily oral PrEP at week 48. Perceived barriers and facilitators to daily oral PrEP were reported by 38.2% and 98.5%, respectively. The most reported barrier and facilitator were 'I forgot to take my pills' (19.2%) and 'Associate PrEP with a daily activity/task' (58.6%), respectively. In final multivariable analysis, living in Rio de Janeiro (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.20-0.73), being transgender women (aOR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.07-0.73), reporting stimulant use (a OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.20-0.80) and having any perceived barriers to daily oral PrEP (aOR: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.07-0.23) were associated with decreased odds of complete adherence. Our findings provide information for developing the best practices to promote PrEP adherence in the Brazilian context.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a quality improvement program to reduce caesarean sections in Brazilian private hospitals: a case study

Background

In 2015, a quality improvement project of childbirth care called Adequate Childbirth Project (“Projeto Parto Adequado”- PPA) was implemented in Brazilian public and private hospitals, aiming to improve the quality of childbirth care and to reduce caesarean sections without clinical indications. The objective of this study is to conduct an economic analysis of two models of care existing in a private Brazilian hospital—the model following the recommendations of the PPA and the standard of care model—in reducing the proportion of caesarean sections.

Methods

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using data from one of the private hospitals included in the PPA project. The main outcome was the proportion of caesarean section. We used total cost of hospitalization for women and newborns, from the health care sector perspective, during the length of the observed hospital stay. We did not apply discount rates and inflation rate adjustments due to the short time horizon. We conducted univariate sensitivity analysis using the minimum and maximum costs observed in hospitalizations and variation in the probabilities of caesarean section and of maternal and neonatal complications.

Results

238 puerperal women were included in this analysis. The PPA model of care resulted in a 56.9 percentage point reduction in the caesarean section probability (88.6% vs 31.7%, p < 0.001) with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1,237.40 per avoided caesarean section. Women in the PPA model of care also had a higher proportion of spontaneous and induced labor and a lower proportion of early term births. There were no maternal, fetal or neonatal deaths and no significant differences in cases of maternal and neonatal near miss. The cost of uncomplicated vaginal births and caesarean sections was the parameter with the greatest impact on the cost-effectiveness ratio of the PPA model of care.

Conclusion

The PPA model of care was cost-effective in reducing caesarean sections in women assisted in a Brazilian private hospital. Moreover, it reduced the frequency of early term births and did not increase the occurrence of severe negative maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Caesarean section is a safe intervention to save the lives of women and newborns. However, it is associated with negative health consequences for women and children in the short, medium and long term. Therefore, its harmful effects can outweigh its benefits when used excessively. Caesarean rates are increasing globally. In Brazil, caesarean section is the most frequent type of birth since 2009.

In 2015, a quality improvement project, called “Adequate Childbirth Project” (PPA), was implemented in Brazilian public and private hospitals with the aim of improving the quality of childbirth care and reducing caesarean sections without clinical indications.

In this study, we compared the caesarean rate and the hospitalization costs of women assisted in this new model of care and in the standard of care model. The women attended in the PPA model of care had a lower rate of caesarean section (31.7% vs 88.6% in the standard of care model), with no differences in severe negative maternal and neonatal outcomes. Women in the PPA model of care also had a higher frequency of spontaneous or induced labor and a lower frequency of early term births, that is, less than 39 weeks of gestation. The PPA model of care was considered cost-effective, that is, it produced good results for the amount of money spent. This is a promising result for services that face the problem of increasing numbers of caesarean sections and are looking for strategies to improve the quality of childbirth care.

BestFLR Trial: Liver Regeneration at CT before Major Hepatectomies for Liver Cancer-A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Portal Vein Embolization with N-Butyl-Cyanoacrylate Plus Iodized Oil versus Polyvinyl Alcohol Particles Plus Coils

Background In patients with liver cancer, portal vein embolization (PVE) is recommended to promote liver growth before major hepatectomies. However, the optimal embolization strategy has not been established. Purpose To compare liver regeneration as seen at CT in participants with liver cancer, before major hepatectomies, with N-butyl-cyanoacrylate (NBCA) plus iodized oil versus standard polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) particles plus coils, for PVE. Materials and Methods In this single-center, prospective, randomized controlled trial (Best Future Liver Remnant, or BestFLR, trial; International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 16062796), PVE with NBCA plus iodized oil was compared with standard PVE with PVA particles plus coils in participants with liver cancer. Participant recruitment started in November 2017 and ended in March 2020. Participants were randomly assigned to undergo PVE with PVA particles plus coils or PVE with NBCA plus iodized oil. The primary end point was liver growth assessed with CT 14 days and 28 days after PVE. Secondary outcomes included posthepatectomy liver failure, surgical complications, and length of intensive care treatment and hospital stay. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare continuous outcomes according to PVE material, whereas the Χ² test or Fisher exact test was used for categoric variables. Results Sixty participants (mean age, 61 years ± 11 [standard deviation]; 32 men) were assigned to the PVA particles plus coils group (n = 30) or to the NBCA plus iodized oil group (n = 30). Interim analysis revealed faster and superior liver hypertrophy for the NBCA plus iodized oil group versus the PVA particles plus coils group 14 days and 28 days after PVE (absolute hypertrophy of 46% vs 30% [P < .001] and 57% vs 37% [P < .001], respectively). Liver growth for the proposed hepatectomy was achieved in 87% of participants (26 of 30) in the NBCA plus iodized oil group versus 53% of participants (16 of 30) in the PVA particles plus coils group (P = .008) 14 days after PVE. Liver failure occurred in 13% of participants (three of 24) in the NBCA plus iodized oil group and in 27% of participants (six of 22) in the PVA particles plus coils group (P = .27). Conclusion Portal vein embolization with N-butyl-cyanoacrylate plus iodized oil produced greater and faster liver growth as seen at CT in participants with liver cancer, compared with portal vein embolization with polyvinyl alcohol particles plus coils, allowing for earlier surgical intervention. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Arellano in this issue.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in Brazil: spatial and age cohort heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the coverage of the first and second dose of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in Brazil according to microregion, comparing cohorts of girls aged 14, 15, and 16 years in 2017, and investigate the association between spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and sociodemographic variables.

METHODS

Information about the doses administered from 2013 to 2017 by age was gathered from the National Immunization Program. The number of girls aged seven, eight, and nine years living in each microregion in 2010 was obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Census. For the analysis, the cumulated vaccination coverage per microregion (n = 558) was categorized as low (< 80%) and adequate (≥ 80%), and a random intercept logistic model was adjusted, with adequate vaccination coverage as the outcome. The random effect (federative unit) was included to identify the correlation between microregions that belong to the same state.

RESULTS

The percentage of microregions with adequate vaccination coverage was significantly higher in the first dose (between 91.8 and 159.2%), regardless of the cohort. The coverage of the second dose was lower (between 7 and 79.9%), with heterogeneity associated with the degree of urbanization and households with private bathrooms in the municipality. The random effect showed a strong explanatory power, suggesting important differences among Brazilian states as to the outreach of vaccination coverage.

CONCLUSION

Although the HPV vaccine is available through the Immunization Program, the findings of the present study point to a difficulty in achieving adequate vaccination coverage.

How heuristics and cognitive biases affect vaccination decisions

Immunization, the most successful public health intervention to date, can only be effective if eligible individuals or their legal representatives have access to vaccines and subsequently comply with their use. Under-vaccination stems from multiple causes: access, affordability, awareness, acceptance and activation. In this paper, we focus on acceptance and, specifically, on factors pertaining to individual or parental compliance, specifically the psychology of judgment and decision making. We describe how heuristics and cognitive biases - a facet of thoughts and feelings - affect vaccination decision making. Additionally, we address when and how social processes play a role and how attitudes towards vaccines might reflect a more general underlying attitude or ideology. The understanding of how decision making, with regards to vaccines occurs, and the role played by heuristics and cognitive biases can help inform more appropriate public health interventions.

Predictors of influenza vaccine uptake: translation into Portuguese and validation of a questionnaire

The difficulty in achieving ideal coverage rates with the influenza vaccine in Brazil and the growing wave of antivaccine movements in the world point to the need for a more in-depth understanding of the individual determinants of to this vaccine uptake. The Health Belief Model, a theoretical model that aims to explain and predict health-related behaviors, suggests that individual beliefs influence the adoption of health-related behaviors. The objective of this study was a cross-cultural adaptation of an instrument to assess predictors of influenza vaccine uptake in Brazilian adults. The authors conducted translation, back-translation, face validity, and a survey for construct validity. They also analyzed the factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake in 2017. An instrument originally with seven domains was identified and selected. In the factor analysis, four of the model's seven constructs were validated: Susceptibility, Barriers, Cues to action, and Self-efficacy. In the survey with 396 persons, 59.3% reported having received the influenza vaccine in the last campaign in 2017. Female sex, age > 50 years, pregnancy, vaccination in private healthcare services, hepatitis B vaccination, and influenza vaccination prior to 2017 were associated with vaccination in 2017. In the final logistic regression model, perceived Barriers appeared as a strong factor for non-vaccination, while Cues to action increased the odds of vaccination.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy for HIV/AIDS in Latin America and the Caribbean: Systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy is closely related with suppression of the HIV viral load in plasma, slowing disease progression and decreasing HIV transmission rates. Despite its importance, the estimated proportion of people living with HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean with optimal adherence has not yet been reported in a meta-analysis. Moreover, little is known of the factors leading to poor adherence which may be setting-specific. We present a pooled estimate of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) of people living with HIV in Latin America and Caribbean, report the methods used to measure adherence and describe the factors associated with poor adherence among the selected studies.

METHODS

We electronically searched published studies up to July 2016 on the PubMed, Web of Science and Virtual Health Library (Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Portal); considering the following databases: MEDLINE, LILACS, PAHO and IBECS. Two independent reviewers selected and extracted data on ART adherence and study characteristics. Pooled estimate of adherence was derived using a random-effects model. Risk of bias in individual studies was assessed independently by two investigators using the Risk of Bias Assessment tool for Non-randomized Studies (RoBANS).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The meta-analysis included 53 studies published between 2005 and 2016, which analysed 22,603 people living with HIV in 25 Latin America and Caribbean countries. Overall adherence in Latin America and Caribbean was 70% (95% CI: 63-76; I²  = 98%), similar to levels identified by studies conducted in high-income regions. Self-report was the most frequently used method to measure adherence. Subgroup analysis showed that adherence was higher for the shortest recall time frame used, as well as in countries with lower income level, Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and Human Development Index (HDI). Studies reported diverse adherence barriers, such as alcohol and substance misuse, depression, unemployment and pill burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that adherence to ART in Latin America and Caribbean may be below the sufficient levels required for a successful long-term viral load suppression.

Transcendendo: A Cohort Study of HIV-Infected and Uninfected Transgender Women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Purpose: Worldwide, the burden of adverse health conditions is substantial among travestis and transgender women (trans women). Transcendendo, the first trans-specific cohort in a low- or middle-income country, is an open cohort established in August 2015 to longitudinally evaluate the health aspects of trans women aged ≥18 years in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Methods: Study visits occur on an annual basis. Data on sociodemographics, behavioral, gender transition, affirmation procedures, hormone use, discrimination, violence, clinical and mental health, HIV prevention, and care (for those HIV-infected) are collected. Physical examination, anthropometric measurements, and laboratory tests are performed.

Results: As of July 2017, 322 trans women were enrolled in the cohort with a median age of 31.5 years (interquartile range 25.7–39.5), of whom 174 (54%) were HIV-infected. The Transcendendo baseline information reinforces the scenario of marginalization and deprivation surrounding trans women. Most participants had low income (62.0% were living with below US$ 10.00/day), showed a very high engagement in sex work (78.6%), and reported increased occurrence of sexual (46.3%) and physical (54.0%) violence. Pre-exposure peophylaxis (PReP) was used by 18.8% of the HIV-uninfected trans women, only through research participation. Positive screening for depression (57.8%) and problematic use of tobacco (56.6%), cannabis (28.9%), cocaine (23.8%), and alcohol (21.5%) were high. Almost all participants (94.8%) reported hormone use at some point, mostly without medical supervision (78.7%).

Conclusion: Our results describe a context of exclusion experienced by trans women, exposing vulnerabilities of this population in a middle-income country, with poor access to trans-specific care, HIV prevention and care, and mental health care. Addressing transgender experiences and needs can help the development of strategies to diminish stigma, improve health care environment, guide future research on trans morbidities, substance use, and trans-specific interventions to support health-related recommendations. Ultimately, it contributes to close the gaps concerning transgender health and reinforces that trans care cannot be disentangled from the social environment that surrounds trans women.

Awareness of Prevention Strategies and Willingness to Use Preexposure Prophylaxis in Brazilian Men Who Have Sex With Men Using Apps for Sexual Encounters: Online Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Geosocial networking (GSN) smartphone apps are becoming the main venue for sexual encounters among Brazilian men who have sex with men (MSM). To address the increased HIV incidence in this population, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was recently implemented in the Brazilian public health system in the context of combined HIV prevention.

Objective

This study aimed to describe the characteristics of MSM using GSN apps for sexual encounters, their awareness of prevention strategies, and willingness to use PrEP.

Methods

This study was an online cross-sectional study conducted in 10 Brazilian state capitals from July 1 to July 31, 2016. The questionnaire was programmed on SurveyGizmo and advertised in two GSN apps used by MSM to find sexual partners (Hornet and Grindr). Inclusion criteria were >18 years of age, cisgender men, with an HIV-negative status. Eligible individuals answered questions on: demographics; behavior; and knowledge, preferences, and willingness to use PrEP, nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP), HIV self-testing (HIVST), and condoms. Logistic regression modeling was performed to assess the factors associated with daily oral PrEP willingness.

Results

During the study period, 8885 individuals provided consent and started the questionnaire. Of these, 23.05% (2048/8885) were ineligible, 6837 (6837/8885, 76.94%) initiated, and 5065 (5065/8885, 57.00%) completed the entire questionnaire and were included in the present analysis. Median age was 30 years (interquartile range: 25-36), most self-declared as MSM (4991/5065, 98.54%), white (3194/5065, 63.06%), middle income (2148/5065, 42.41%), and had 12 or more years of schooling (3106/5062, 61.36%). The majority of MSM (3363/5064, 66.41%) scored >10 points (high risk) on The HIV Incidence Risk for MSM Scale, but only 21.39% (1083/5064) had a low perceived likelihood of getting HIV in the next year. Daily use of apps for sex was reported by 35.58% (1798/5054). Most MSM (4327/5065, 85.43%) reported testing for HIV at least once in their lifetime and 9.16% (464/5065) used nPEP in the previous year. PrEP, nPEP, and HIVST awareness was reported by 57.89% (2932/5065), 57.39% (2907/5065), and 26.57% (1346/5065) of participants, respectively. Half of all respondents (2653/5065, 52.38%) were willing to use daily oral PrEP, and this finding was associated with higher numbers of male sexual partners (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.26, 95% CI 1.09-1.47), condomless receptive anal intercourse (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.12-1.44), sex with HIV-positive partner versus no HIV-positive partner (one HIV-positive partner: AOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11-1.67), daily use of apps for sexual encounters (AOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.17-1.87), high and unknown perceived likelihood of getting HIV in the next year (AOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.47-2.02 and AOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.13-1.70), sexually transmitted infection diagnosis (AOR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.51), stimulant use (AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.43), PrEP awareness (AOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30-1.70), and unwillingness to use condoms (AOR 1.16, 95% CI 1.00-1.33).

Conclusions

Our results evidenced high-risk scores in the studied population, suggesting the importance of PrEP use. Those individuals presenting risky sexual behaviors were more willing to use PrEP. Nonetheless, only 58% (2932/5065) of individuals had heard about this prevention strategy. Efforts to increase awareness of new prevention strategies are needed, and mobile health tools are a promising strategy to reach MSM.

Portal vein embolization with n-butyl-cyanoacrylate through an ipsilateral approach before major hepatectomy: single center analysis of 50 consecutive patients

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy of portal vein embolization (PVE) with n-Butyl-cyanoacrylate (NBCA) through an ipsilateral approach before major hepatectomy. Secondary end-points were PVE safety, liver resection and patient outcome.

Methods

Over a 5-year period 50 non-cirrhotic consecutive patients were included with primary or secondary liver cancer treatable by hepatectomy with a liver remnant (FLR) volume less than 25% or less than 40% in diseased livers.

Results

There were 37 men and 13 women with a mean age of 57 years. Colorectal liver metastases were the most frequent tumor and patients were previously exposed to chemotherapy. FLR increased from 422 ml to 629 ml (P < 0.001) after PVE, corresponding to anincrease of 52%. The FLR ratio increased from 29.6% to 42.3% (P < 0.001). Kinetic growth rate was 2.98%/week. A negative association was observed between increase in the FLR and FLR ratio and FLR volume before PVE (P = 0.002). In 31 patients hepatectomy was accomplished and only one patient presented with liver insufficiency within 30 days after surgery.

Conclusions

PVE with NBCA through an ipsilateral puncture is effective before major hepatectomy. Meticulous attention is needed especially near the end of the embolization procedure to avoid complications.

Trial registration

Clinical Study ISRCTN registration number: ISRCTN39855523. Registered March 13th 2017.

Trends in AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses incidence over 25 years in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To assess the temporal trends in incidence of AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses in an urban cohort of a middle-income country.

METHODS

HIV infected patients aged ≥ 18 years at cohort entry were included in this analysis. We calculated incidence rates per 1000 persons-years of observation for the first opportunistic illness presented after cohort enrollment, from 1987 to 2012. Trends for overall and specific opportunistic illnesses were tested and incidence rate ratios for the most recent calendar period were calculated as the ratio between the incidence rate observed in the most recent period of the study (2009-2012) and the incidence rate observed in first period of the study (1987-1990).

RESULTS

Overall, 3378 patients were included in this analysis; of which 1119 (33%) patients presented an opportunistic illness during follow up. Incidence rates of all opportunistic illnesses decreased over time, and the overall opportunistic illness incidence rates fell from 295.4/1000 persons-years in 1987-1990 to 34.6/1000 persons-years in 2009-2012. Tuberculosis, esophageal candidiasis, cerebral toxoplasmosis and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia were the most incident opportunistic illnesses in the cohort. Tuberculosis had the highest incidence rate in the study period. The peak in tuberculosis incidence occurred in 1991-1993 (80.8/1000 persons-years). Cerebral toxoplasmosis was the third most incident opportunistic illness in the study, with a peak of incidence of 43.6/1000 persons-year in 1987-1990.

CONCLUSIONS

All opportunistic illnesses incidence rates decreased over the years but they still occur in an unacceptable frequency. Tuberculosis co-infection among HIV-infected persists as an important challenge for health care professionals and policy makers in our setting. Impressively high rates of cerebral toxoplasmosis were found suggesting that its incidence among HIV-infected is linked to the high prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in the general population.

AIDS and non-AIDS severe morbidity associated with hospitalizations among HIV-infected patients in two regions with universal access to care and antiretroviral therapy, France and Brazil, 2000-2008: hospital-based cohort studies

Background

In high-income settings, the spectrum of morbidity and mortality experienced by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-infected individuals receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has switched from predominantly AIDS-related to non-AIDS-related conditions. In the context of universal access to care, we evaluated whether that shift would apply in Brazil, a middle-income country with universal access to treatment, as compared to France.

Methods

Two hospital-based cohorts of HIV-infected individuals were used for this analysis: the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort in South Western France and the Evandro Chagas Research Institute (IPEC) Cohort of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Severe morbid events (AIDS- and non-AIDS-related) were defined as all clinical diagnoses associated with a hospitalization of ≥48 hours. Trends in the incidence rate of events and their determinants were estimated while adjusting for within-subject correlation using generalized estimating equations models with an auto-regressive correlation structure and robust standard errors.

Result

Between January 2000 and December 2008, 7812 adult patients were followed for a total of 41,668 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Throughout the study period, 90% of the patients were treated with cART. The annual incidence rate of AIDS and non-AIDS events, and of deaths significantly decreased over the years, from 6.2, 21.1, and 1.9 AIDS, non-AIDS events, and deaths per 100 PY in 2000 to 4.3, 14.9, and 1.5/100 PY in 2008. The annual incidence rates of non-AIDS events surpassed that of AIDS-events during the entire study period. High CD4 cell counts were associated with a lower incidence rate of AIDS and non-AIDS events as well as with lower rates of specific non-AIDS events, such as bacterial, hepatic, viral, neurological, and cardiovascular conditions. Adjusted analysis showed that severe morbidity was associated with lower CD4 counts and higher plasma HIV RNAs but not with setting (IPEC versus Aquitaine).

Conclusions

As information on severe morbidities for HIV-infected patients remain scarce, data on hospitalizations are valuable to identify priorities for case management and to improve the quality of life of patients with a chronic disease requiring life-long treatment. Immune restoration is highly effective in reducing AIDS and non-AIDS severe morbid events irrespective of the setting.

Screening for decreased glomerular filtration rate and associated risk factors in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in a middle-income country

With the introduction of combined active antiretroviral therapy and the improved survival of HIV-infected patients, degenerative diseases and drug toxicity have emerged as long-term concerns. We studied the prevalence of decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and associated risk factors in a cohort of HIV-infected patients from a middle-income country. Our cross-sectional study included all adult patients who attended an urban outpatient clinic in 2008. GFR was estimated using the CKD-EPI equation. The prevalence ratio (PR) of decreased GFR (defined as <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) was estimated using generalizing linear models assuming a Poisson distribution. We analyzed data from 1,970 patients, of which 82.9% had been exposed to ART. A total of 249 patients (12.6%) had a GFR between 60 and 89 mL/min/1.73 m², 3.1% had a GFR between 30 and 59, 0.3% had a GFR between 15 and 29, and 0.4% had a GFR <15. Decreased GFR was found in only 74 patients (3.8%). In the multivariate regression model, the factors that were independently associated with a GFR below 60 mL/min/1.73 m² were as follows: age ≥50 years (PR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.7–6.8), diabetes (PR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2–3.4), hypertension (PR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.3–3.2), current CD4+ cell count <350 cells/mm3 (PR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3–3.3), past exposure to tenofovir (PR = 4.7; 95% CI: 2.3–9.4) and past exposure to indinavir (PR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0–2.8). As in high-income countries, CKD was the predominant form of kidney involvement among HIV-infected individuals in our setting. The risk factors associated with decreased glomerular filtration were broad and included virus-related factors as well as degenerative and nephrotoxic factors. Despite the potential for nephrotoxicity associated with some antiretroviral drugs, in the short-term, advanced chronic renal disease remains very rare.

Absence of effect of menopause status at initiation of first-line antiretroviral therapy on immunologic or virologic responses: a cohort study from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) between premenopausal and postmenopausal women.

METHODS

ART-naïve women initiating cART between January 2000/June 2010 at the Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas Cohort were studied. Women were defined as postmenopausal after 12 consecutive months of amenorrhea. CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) measurements were compared between pre- and postmenopausal at 6, 12 and 24 months after cART initiation. Women who modified/discontinued a drug class or died due to an AIDS defining illness were classified as ART-failures. Variables were compared using Wilcoxon test, χ2 or Fisher's exact test. The odds of cART effectiveness (VL<400 copies/mL and/or no need to change cART) were compared using logistic regression. Linear model was used to access relationship between CD4 change and menopause.

RESULTS

Among 383 women, 328 (85%) were premenopausal and 55 (15%) postmenopausal. Median pre cART CD4 counts were 231 and 208 cells/mm(3) (p = 0.14) in pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively. No difference in the median pre cART VL was found (both 4.8 copies/mL). Median CD4 changes were similar at 6 and 12 months. At 24 months after cART initiation, CD4 changes among postmenopausal women were significantly lower among premenopausal women (p = 0.01). When the analysis was restricted to women with VL<400 copies/mL, no statistical difference was observed. Overall, 63.7% achieved cART effectiveness at 24 months without differences between groups at 6, 12 and 24 months.

CONCLUSION

Menopause status at the time of first-line cART initiation does not impact CD4 cell changes at 24 months among women with a virologic response. No relationship between menopause status and virologic response was observed.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE

To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries.

METHODS

Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed.

RESULTS

In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

The epidemic wave of influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil, 2009

This study describes the main features of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil during 2009. Brazil is a large country that extends roughly from latitudes 5ºN to 34ºS. Brazil has tropical and sub-tropical climates, a heterogeneous population distribution, and intense urbanization in the southern portions of the country and along its Atlantic coast. Our analysis points to a wide variation in infection rates throughout the country, and includes both latitudinal effects and strong variations in detection rates. Two states (out of a total of 23) were responsible for 73% of all cases reported. Real time reproduction numbers demonstrate that influenza transmission was sustained in the country, beginning in May of 2009. Finally, this study discusses the challenges in understanding the infection dynamics of influenza and the adequacy of Brazil's influenza monitoring system.

Cervical cytological abnormalities and factors associated with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions among HIV-infected women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Although cervical cancer remains a major public health problem in Brazil, knowledge of cervical cytological abnormalities among HIV-infected women remains scarce. At baseline evaluation of a cohort followed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 703 HIV-infected women underwent cytology-based cervical cancer screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate the association of factors with the presence of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). Cervical cytology was abnormal in 24.3% of the women; 4.1% had HSIL. Beyond HPV infection, factors independently associated with the presence of HSIL was age (≥25 and ≤40 years, prevalence ratio [PR] 2.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-6.10), and more than three pregnancies was protective (PR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11-0.94). High coverage of cervical cancer screening is warranted to prevent morbidity and mortality from cervical cancer in this population.

Potential impact of a presumed increase in the biting activity of dengue-virus-infected Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females on virus transmission dynamics

Recently, we showed that infection with dengue virus increases the locomotor activity of Aedes aegypti females. We speculate that the observed increased locomotor activity could potentially increase the chances of finding a suitable host and, as a consequence, the relative biting rate of infected mosquitoes. We used a mathematical model to investigate the impact of the increased locomotor activity by assuming that this activity translated into an increased biting rate for infected mosquitoes. The results show that the increased biting rate resulted in dengue outbreaks with greater numbers of primary and secondary infections and with more severe biennial epidemics.

Analysis of the mortality trend due to cerebrovascular accident in Brazil in the XXI century

BACKGROUND

Although it is the second leading cause of deaths worldwide, the cerebrovascular accident (CVA) has shown a significant reduction in mortality rates in recent decades.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the trend of CVA mortality rate in Brazil, in both sexes, older than 30 years old, between 2000 and 2009.

METHODS

Population data were obtained from the database of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and deaths through the Mortality Information System of the Health Surveillance Secretariat of the Ministry of Health, and included codes I60 to I69 according to 10th International Classification of Diseases. We calculated the incidence of deaths/1,000 inhabitants, gross and standardized mortality rates /100,000 inhabitants. The modeling of the trend of rates was performed using regression models.

RESULTS

There was an increase in mortality until 2006, followed by a decline until 2009, when the incidence was the lowest. Comparing the years 2000 and 2009, there is a downward trend in standardized mortality rate in both sexes (male = -14.69% and female = -17%) and total (-14.99%), with fluctuations during the period. Between 30 and 49 years in both sexes, there was a trend of continuous and linear decrease in mortality rate, while the other age groups showed a curvilinear function, leading to an effective decrease in values.

CONCLUSION

There was a downward trend in mortality in all age groups and both sexes. The reduction in gross mortality rate was more pronounced in males, while the standardized mortality rate showed a greater reduction in females.

Breast cancer in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a cases series report and an incidence rate estimate

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has changed the morbidity pattern affecting HIV-infected individuals to include non-AIDS-defining cancers. We describe the breast cancer cases occurring in a cohort of 860 HIV-infected women followed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and estimate the incidence rate of breast cancer for this population. Nine cases were identified; median age at diagnosis was 46 years. Median survival after breast cancer diagnosis was 12 months. Breast cancer diagnosis was made within 2 to 15 years of HIV-infection diagnosis. At breast cancer diagnosis, CD4 counts ranged from 135 to 782 cells/mm3; six women were receiving HAART. Histological analysis indicated infiltrating ductal carcinoma in all cases. The incidence rate of breast cancer was 133 cases per 100,000 persons-year. Patients from our case series were late diagnosed with breast cancer and thus suffered from worse prognosis. Strategies targeting earlier diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment are needed.

Cervical cancer screening among HIV-infected women: an economic evaluation in a middle-income country

Due to the recent widespread availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in middle-income countries, there has been an increase in life expectancy for women on HAART, but no corresponding decrease in cervical cancer incidence. This study evaluates the optimal cervical cancer screening strategy for HIV-infected women in a middle-income country. We developed a mathematical model, which simulates the natural history of the HPV infection, as well as the HIV-mediated immunosupression among women in Brazil. Our model was calibrated using data from the IPEC/FIOCRUZ Women's HIV-infected cohort. The model compares the lifetime effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of strategies combining cytology, HPV DNA test and colposcopy at different screening intervals for different CD4 count strata (27 strategies in total). We found that the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness profile (cost-effectiveness ratio-U$4,911/year of life saved [YLS] and probability of being cost-effective-86%) was HPV testing followed by cytology triage every year for all HIV infected women, considering a very cost-effective threshold given by Brazil's GDP per capita (US$8,625/YLS). The results were robust to changes in the input parameters as demonstrated in one-way, scenario, threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our study indicates that annual HPV testing followed by cytology triage for all HIV-infected women is likely to be very cost-effective in a middle-income country like Brazil. The results reflect the synergic effect of using a highly sensitive screening test (HPV DNA test) in sequence with a highly specific test (cytology).

Desempenho do exame citológico e da captura híbrida II no rastreamento de lesões intraepiteliais escamosas de alto grau em mulheres HIV+

As lesões intraepiteliais escamosas de alto grau (HSIL) são precursoras do câncer do colo do útero, com maior risco de ocorrência e desenvolvimento em mulheres HIV+. Neste trabalho, estimamos e comparamos o desempenho do exame citológico e da captura híbrida II no rastreamento das lesões precursoras em mulheres HIV+. A população de estudo compreendeu mulheres acompanhadas na coorte prospectiva aberta do Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas da Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (IPEC/Fiocruz). A colposcopia e histologia foram consideradas conjuntamente na definição do teste de referência. O exame citológico apresentou sensibilidade de 31,8% e especificidade de 95,5%, enquanto a captura híbrida II apresentou maior sensibilidade (100%) e menor especificidade (52%). As razões de verossimilhança para o teste positivo e negativo foram estimadas em 7,1 e 0,7 para o exame citológico e em 2,1 e 0,0 para a captura híbrida II, respectivamente.

Dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting: an economic modelling assessment

BACKGROUND

An estimated 2·5 billion people are at risk of dengue. Incidence of dengue is especially high in resource-constrained countries, where control relies mainly on insecticides targeted at larval or adult mosquitoes. We did epidemiological and economic assessments of different vector control strategies.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic model of dengue transmission that assesses the evolution of insecticide resistance and immunity in the human population, thus allowing for long-term evolutionary and immunological effects of decreased dengue transmission. We measured the dengue health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. We did a cost-effectiveness analysis of 43 insecticide-based vector control strategies, including strategies targeted at adult and larval stages, at varying efficacies (high-efficacy [90% mortality], medium-efficacy [60% mortality], and low-efficacy [30% mortality]) and yearly application frequencies (one to six applications). To assess the effect of parameter uncertainty on the results, we did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and a threshold analysis.

FINDINGS

All interventions caused the emergence of insecticide resistance, which, with the loss of herd immunity, will increase the magnitude of future dengue epidemics. In our model, one or more applications of high-efficacy larval control reduced dengue burden for up to 2 years, whereas three or more applications of adult vector control reduced dengue burden for up to 4 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the strategies for two high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was US$615 per DALY saved and for six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year was $1267 per DALY saved. Sensitivity analysis showed that if the cost of adult control was more than 8·2 times the cost of larval control then all strategies based on adult control became dominated.

INTERPRETATION

Six high-efficacy adult vector control applications per year has a cost-effectiveness ratio that will probably meet WHO's standard for a cost-effective or very cost-effective intervention. Year-round larval control can be counterproductive, exacerbating epidemics in later years because of evolution of insecticide resistance and loss of herd immunity. We suggest the reassessment of vector control policies that are based on larval control only.

FUNDING

The Fulbright Programme, CAPES (Brazilian federal agency for post-graduate education), the Miriam Burnett trust, and the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.

Factors associated with colposcopy-histopathology confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia among HIV-infected women from Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction

Despite the availability of preventive strategies (screening tests and vaccines), cervical cancer continues to impose a significant health burden in low- and medium-resourced countries. HIV-infected women are at increased risk for infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) and thus development of cervical squamous intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN).

Methods

Study participants included HIV-infected women enrolling the prospective open cohort of Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (IPEC/FIOCRUZ). At cohort entry, women were subjected to conventional Papanicolaou test, HPV-DNA test and colposcopy; lesions suspicious for CIN were biopsied. Histopathology report was based on directed biopsy or on specimens obtained by excision of the transformation zone or cervical conization. Poisson regression modeling was used to assess factors associated with CIN2+ diagnosis.

Results

The median age of the 366 HIV-infected women included in the study was 34 years (interquartile range: 28–41 years). The prevalence of CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were 20.0%, 3.5%, and 2.2%, respectively. One woman was found to have cervical cancer. The prevalence of CIN2+ was 6.0%. Factors associated with CIN2+ diagnosis in the multivariate model were age < years compared to ≥35 years (aPR  =  3.22 95%CI 1.23–8.39), current tobacco use (aPR  =  3.69 95%CI 1.54–8.78), nadir CD4 T-cell count <350 cells/mm3 when compared to ≥ 350 cells/mm3 (aPR  =  6.03 95%CI 1.50–24.3) and concomitant diagnosis of vulvar and/or vaginal intraepithelial lesion (aPR  =  2.68 95%CI 0.99–7.24).

Discussion

Increased survival through wide-spread use of highly active antiretroviral therapy might allow for the development of cervical cancer. In Brazil, limited cytology screening and gynecological care adds further complexity to the HIV-HPV co-infection problem. Integrated HIV care and cervical cancer prevention programs are needed for the prevention of cervical cancer mortality in this group of women.

[Economic evaluation in health: applications in infectious diseases]

The rise in healthcare expenditures due to the incorporation of new diagnostic and therapeutic technologies and increasing life expectancy is a major concern, particularly in developing countries. The role of economic evaluation in health is to optimize the benefits of available resources. This article aims to allow readers to identify the basic characteristics and types of economic evaluation in health and understand its methods, with an emphasis on infectious diseases. We thus review the following concepts: study perspective, analytic scope, costs, and discount rate. We also focus on characteristics of cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, and cost-benefit analyses, with examples. The article describes the most popular study designs for economic evaluation, discusses different models, and examines the importance of sensitivity analysis. Our final comments address the importance of adopting economic evaluations in health in Brazil.

Economic evaluation of strategies for managing women with equivocal cytological results in Brazil

In Brazil, current management of women with screening results of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) is to offer repeat testing at 6-month intervals. Alternative management strategies that have been adopted in many high-income settings are to offer immediate colposcopy referral or to utilise human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as a triage for colposcopy referral, and to consider different strategies according to women's age. The objective of our study was to evaluate the lifetime cost effectiveness in terms of cost per years of life saved (YLS) of these alternative strategies for a middle income setting. A Markov model was developed using data from the Ludwig-McGill cohort and calibrated to independent observational datasets and local cost estimates obtained. In the base-case analysis, repeat cytology was the least costly strategy but also the least effective. Based on the WHO threshold for very cost-effective interventions, HPV triage for women above 30 years-old was the strategy with the highest probability of being cost effective. HPV triage including younger women with ASCUS results would also be a cost-effective option. Whilst there was a slight further gain in effectiveness with immediate colposcopy referral, it was also more expensive and did not appear to be cost effective. Threshold analysis indicated that an HPV test would have to be more than twice as expensive as a cytology test for HPV triage to no longer be cost effective. In conclusion, our results indicate that in middle income settings HPV triage is likely to be the optimal strategy for managing women presenting with ASC-US results.

Disability adjusted life years lost to dengue in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To assess the dengue burden in Brazil, and to compare it over three spatial scales: in the city of Rio de Janeiro, the state of Rio de Janeiro, and in Brazil overall.

METHODS

We calculated disability adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to dengue per million individuals annually from 1986 through 2006. To calculate DALYs, we compiled data on the number of dengue cases by age, clinical syndrome and outcome. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to multiplication factors used to adjust for inaccuracies in reporting using a Monte Carlo method.

RESULTS

From 1986 through 2006, a mean of 56, 47 and 22 DALYs per million individuals annually were lost to dengue in the city of Rio de Janeiro, in the state of Rio de Janeiro and in Brazil, respectively. Over 80% of the dengue burden derived from dengue fever cases. The dengue burden was highest at the city-level with a maximum single-year estimate of 560 DALYs per million individuals for 2002.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of dengue burden requires consideration of all clinical syndromes over multiple years. Our results indicate that the dengue burden is as high as the burden of other major infectious diseases that afflict the Brazilian population, including malaria. These results may prompt policy makers to elevate the prioritization of dengue control, and allocate resources needed to curtail the increasing dengue burden.

The many faces of epidemiology: evolutionary epidemiology

We review important issues revealed by the application of the evolutionary theory to epidemiological problems. The scope is restricted to infectious diseases and the evolution of virulence as a consequence of public health strategies to control transmission. We focus on the discussion about the possibility of virulence management and explore current scenarios in which recent advances in molecular biology and genetics offer new tools to monitor and change diversity among pathogens, vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. We stress the need to integrate the analytical framework of epidemiology into population genetics and evolutionary theory. We anticipate as an outcome of this process the development of study designs and analytical tools to predict the evolutionary implications of control measures in the population and surveillance mechanisms to continuously monitor the changes in pathogen virulence patterns. Communication among modelers, epidemiologists and molecular biologists is essential in order to design model-driven field trials and to develop data-driven analytical tools leading to conclusive findings that can inform the public health oriented decision making process.

Factors associated with increased prevalence of human papillomavirus infection in a cohort of HIV-infected Brazilian women

OBJECTIVES

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for cervical disease. Using baseline data from the HIV-infected cohort of Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute at Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, factors associated with an increased prevalence of HPV were assessed.

METHODS

Samples from 634 HIV-infected women were tested for the presence of HPV infection using hybrid capture II and polymerase chain reaction. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HPV infection was 48%, of which 94% were infected with a high-risk HPV. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with infection with high-risk HPV type were: younger age (<30 years of age; PR 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1), current or prior drug use (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6), self-reported history of HPV infection (PR 1.2, 95% CI 0.96-1.6), condom use in the last sexual intercourse (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.7), and nadir CD4+ T-cell count <100cells/mm(3) (PR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated prevalence of high-risk HPV-infection among HIV-infected women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was high. Close monitoring of HPV-related effects is warranted in all HIV-infected women, in particular those of younger age and advanced immunosuppression.

A modelling analysis of pertussis transmission and vaccination in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Pertussis is an infectious respiratory disease for which mass vaccination is an effective preventive strategy. In many developed countries, where high vaccination coverage has been maintained for approximately 50 years, re-emergence of the disease has been observed in all age groups. In the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), where vaccination started in the 1980s, surveillance data show no sign of disease re-emergence. We developed a mathematical model that incorporates the major demographic aspects of a large urban centre in a developing nation, in addition to the most important epidemiological aspects of disease transmission. Parameter values were estimated based on RJ demographic and vaccine coverage data. Overall, all vaccination strategies determined a major decrease (over 95% decrease when compared to the pre-vaccine era) in the incidence of primary infections (occurring in individuals who have never been immunized through infection or vaccine). On the other hand, the strategies (a) three doses at age 2-11 months, (b) three doses plus booster at age 12-23 months, (c) three doses plus booster at age 4-5 years, and (d) three doses plus both boosters, differently affected the incidence of secondary infections (occurring in previously infected/vaccinated individuals). Given that the immunity against pertussis wanes with time and that the infectious agent has not been eliminated from the population, it is expected that pertussis will continue to be a problem in RJ. Actually, since immunity acquired from vaccine wanes faster than disease-acquired immunity and the possibility of natural boosters has decreased with mass vaccination, an increase in the incidence of secondary infections among older age groups is expected (and predicted by the model). Possible explanations as to why this dynamics is not captured by the RJ surveillance system are discussed. A poorly effective surveillance system and a lack of awareness regarding loss of immunity and the possibility of pertussis infection in older age groups are among them. Finally, we bring attention to the need of (i) field studies for the measurement of pertussis incidence in adolescents and adults; (ii) better understanding of the transmission dynamics currently occurring in RJ, and (iii) re-evaluation of vaccination strategies with the possible introduction of acellular vaccines for the vaccination of older individuals.

Risk assessment of yellow fever urbanization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Yellow fever (YF), an arthropod-borne viral disease, occurs in regions of tropical America and Africa. Sylvatic YF is endemic in the north and west of Brazil. Urban YF, on the other hand, has not been reported in the country since 1942. However, the widespread presence of the YF urban vector in Brazil has lead to concern about the potential re-emergence of YF in urban centres. Here, we assess the risk of YF emergence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, by estimating the probability of infected individuals arriving from YF-endemic areas, and the probability of infective individuals triggering an epidemic. We found that the risk of urban YF emergence may reach values as high as 29% during the epizootic periods but the precision of the estimate is low.

Risk of fatal adverse events associated with 17DD yellow fever vaccine

Yellow fever (YF), an acute infectious disease, is endemic in the north and central-west of Brazil. This disease can be prevented by the use of a vaccine. In Brazil, four fatal adverse events have been associated with the YF vaccine used in the country (17DD vaccine). We briefly describe the last two fatalities, and estimate the risk of 17DD-associated fatal adverse events under different epidemiological scenarios. Controversies regarding the appropriate denominator that enters the estimation of risk serve as a motivation for each proposed scenario. The statistical procedures used show optimum behaviour when assessing the risk of rare events. Risk estimates vary from 0.043 (95 % CI 0.017-0.110) to 2.131 (95 % CI 0.109-12.071) fatalities per million doses administered. The robust estimates of the risk of fatal adverse events we present constitute an important element in future risk-benefit analysis and point to the need for good quality vaccine coverage and adverse-events surveillance data to assess the risk of vaccination. Although vaccination of YF endemic regions is necessary to maintain low disease prevalence, preventive administration of YF vaccine to the entire population should be cautiously analysed.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

[The resurgence of pertussis in developed countries: a problem for Brazil as well?]

Pertussis is currently considered an important public health problem in developed countries. In most of these countries, mass immunization for pertussis was initiated in the 1950s and was followed by a marked decrease in disease incidence. In the 1970s, pertussis was apparently under control in countries were vaccine coverage was maintained high. However, in the last two decades of the 20th century, the number of reported cases increased in all age groups, including adolescents and adults, indicating resurgence of the disease. This brief note aims to present the possible reasons for resurgence of this disease and to discuss the prospects of its future dynamics in Brazil. There has been no evidence to date for the resurgence of pertussis in Brazil. However, since mass immunization in Brazil began only in the 1980s, one cannot rule out the possibility that pertussis will resurge in the near future. Therefore, it is important that public health services closely monitor the epidemiological situation of pertussis in order, if necessary, to rapidly update the current immunization strategy.

Is pertussis actually reemerging? Insights from an individual-based model

In this paper, we introduce a spatially explicit, individual-based model developed to simulate the dynamics of pertussis in a small population. With this simulation approach, complex epidemic systems can be built using information on parasite population structure (strain diversity, virulence diversity, etc.), human population structure (individual risk, age structure, interaction matrices, immune response, etc.), as well as mechanisms of evolution and learning. We parameterized our model to describe pertussis in an age-structured community. Pertussis or whooping cough is an acute infection of the respiratory tract caused by Bordetella pertussis. Despite wide-scale vaccination in many countries, this disease is reemerging throughout the world in both adults and children. Emergence has been explained by many factors: wane of vaccine and natural immunity, increase of asymptomatic carriers, and/or natural selection of non-vaccine strains. Here, we model these hypotheses and analyze their potential impact on the observed increase of pertussis notification.