Comparison of quality of life in patients with mitral valve replacement and mitral valve repair in Imam Ali Hospital during 2014 to 2020: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Mitral valve failure is one of the most common valvular heart diseases worldwide. Valve replacement and repair have an impact on the quality of life of patients. Therefore, the present study was conducted to compare the quality of life in patients with mitral valve replacement and those who underwent mitral valve repair.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we considered all cardiac patients with ischemic mitral insufficiency who underwent mitral valve repair and patients with a history of valve replacement in Imam Ali Hospital of Kermanshah between 2014 and 2020. Two Minnesota and general quality of life questionnaires along with a checklist for demographic variables were used for data collection. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 21 software.

RESULTS

The mean quality of life score based on the general quality of life scale in the valve repair group was 32.33 (SD = 2.29) and in the valve replacement group 32.89(SD = 2.60), (p = 0.917). Also, mean quality of life, as measured by the Minnesota MLHFQ was 60.89(SD = 17.67) in the valve repair group and 63.42 (SD = 12.13) in the valve replacement group (p = 0.308). The results showed that the average general quality of life was different in study groups regarding education. Tukey's post hoc test showed that the average general quality of life in illiterate people is significantly lower than in people with academic degrees (P-value = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The quality of life of the patients in both the valve repair and replacement groups was at an average level. There was no significant difference between the general quality of life and the Minnesota scales, suggesting that both tools can be effectively used to measure patients' quality of life. The study's findings can be valuable for monitoring patients, screening for conditions, and enhancing communication between doctors and patients.

Burden of neurodegenerative diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is experiencing a demographic shift towards rapid aging at a time of political unrest. We aimed to estimate the burden of neurodegenerative disorders and its relationship with sociodemographic index in the EMR countries from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, we calculated country-specific trends for prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), years of life lost and years lived with disability (YLD) for Alzheimer's disease/other dementias and Parkinson's disease in the EMR during 1990-2016.

RESULTS

In the EMR, the age-standardized prevalence rate of Alzheimer's disease/other dementias and Parkinson's disease was estimated at 759.8/100 000 (95% uncertainty intervals, 642.9-899.9) and 87.1/100 000 (95% uncertainty intervals, 69.8-108.2) people in 2016, demonstrating 0.01% and 42.3% change from 1990, respectively. Neurodegenerative disorders contributed to 5.4% of total DALY and 4.6% of total YLD among the older EMR population (70 years of age or older in 2016). Age-standardized DALY due to Parkinson's disease were strongly correlated with the sociodemographic index level (r = 0.823, P < 0.001). The YLD:DALY ratio of neurodegenerative diseases declined during this period in the low-income but not the high-income EMR countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrated an increasing trend in the burden of dementias and Parkinson's disease in most EMR countries between 1990 and 2016. With aging of the EMR populations, countries should target the modifiable risk factors of neurodegenerative diseases to control their increasing burden.

The burden of headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2016

Objectives

Using the findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we report the burden of primary headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2016.

Methods

We modelled headache disorders using DisMod-MR 2.1 Bayesian meta-regression tool to ensure consistency between prevalence, incidence, and remission. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence and disability weight (DW) of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH). We assumed primary headache disorders as non-fatal, so their YLD is equal to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Results

Migraine and TTH were the second and twentieth leading causes of YLDs in EMR. Between 1990 and 2016, the absolute YLD numbers of migraine and TTH increased from 2.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.5–3.2) to 4.7 million (95%UI: 3–6.5) and from 383 thousand (95%UI: 240–562) to 816 thousand (95%UI: 516–1221), respectively. During the same period, age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH in EMR increased by 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in comparison to a small decrease in the global rates (0.2% decrease in migraine and TTH). The bulk of burden due to headache occurred in the 30–49 year age group, with a peak at ages 35–44 years. The age-standardised YLD rates of both headache disorders were higher in women with female to male ratio of 1.69 for migraine and 1.38 for TTH. All countries of the EMR except for Somalia and Djibouti had higher age-standardised YLD rates for migraine and TTH in compare to the global rates. Libya and Saudi Arabia had the highest increase in age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH, respectively.

Conclusion

The findings of this study show that primary headache disorders are a major and a growing cause of disability in EMR. Since 1990, burden of primary headache disorders has constantly been higher in EMR compared to rest of the world, which indicates that health systems in EMR must focus further on developing and implementing preventive and management strategies to control headache.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s10194-019-0990-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Air pollution, environmental chemicals, and smoking may trigger vitamin D deficiency: Evidence and potential mechanisms

Beyond vitamin D (VD) effect on bone homeostasis, numerous physiological functions in human health have been described for this versatile prohormone. In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where annual mean ambient particulate matter (<2.5 μm) levels exceeded the World Health Organization guideline value (Shaddick et al., 2018). On the other hand, industries disperse thousands of chemicals continually into the environment. Further, considerable fraction of populations are exposed to tobacco smoke. All of these may disrupt biochemical pathways and cause detrimental consequences, such as VD deficiency (VDD). In spite of the remarkable number of studies conducted on the role of some of the above mentioned exposures on VDD, the literature suffers from two main shortcomings: (1) an overview of the impacts of environmental exposures on the levels of main VD metabolites, and (2) credible engaged mechanisms in VDD because of those exposures. To summarize explanations for these unclear topics, we conducted the present review, using relevant keywords in the PubMed database, to investigate the adverse effects of exposure to air pollution, some environmental chemicals, and smoking on the VD metabolism, and incorporate relevant potential pathways disrupting VD endocrine system (VDES) leading to VDD. Air pollution may lead to the reduction of VD cutaneous production either directly by blocking ultraviolet B photons or indirectly by decreasing outdoor activity. Heavy metals may reduce VD serum levels by increasing renal tubular dysfunction, as well as downregulating the transcription of cytochrome P450 mixed-function oxidases (CYPs). Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may inhibit the activity and expression of CYPs, and indirectly cause VDD through weight gain and dysregulation of thyroid hormone, parathyroid hormone, and calcium homeostasis. Smoking through several pathways decreases serum 25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D levels, VD intake from diet, and the cutaneous production of VD through skin aging. In summary, disturbance in the cutaneous production of cholecalciferol, decreased intestinal intake of VD, the modulation of genes involved in VD homeostasis, and decreased local production of calcitriol in target tissues are the most likely mechanisms that involve in decreasing the serum VD levels.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Smoking and worsening disability in multiple sclerosis: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating disorder affecting young adults. Environmental factors and lifestyle behaviors are pivotal in MS pathophysiology. Smoking has been considered as an important risk factor in MS. Various recent studies have been conducted to measure the role of smoking on worsening disability in patients with MS, thus we intended to systematically assess effect of smoking on evolution of disability in this study.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We queried MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library with following keywords "Multiple Sclerosis, Smoking, Tobacco Use, Disability" on December 1st 2016. Original articles were included when smoking history was mentioned, disability was measured via expanded disability status scale (EDSS) or multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS). Studies with insufficient outcome data, non-human, or in other languages than English were excluded.

RESULTS

Through literature review after duplicate removals, 268 articles were retrieved. A total of 56 articles were screened and 15 articles were assessed for eligibility, finally, eleven articles were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Ever smoking was significantly associated with increased EDSS (standardized mean difference (SMD) = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.01-0.28), but had no significant association with risk of reaching EDSS 4 (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.89-1.72) or EDSS 6 (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.88-1.57). Smoking had no effect on MSSS (SMD = 0.14, 95% CI = -0.04-0.32) or T2 lesion volume (SMD = 0.07, 95% CI = -0.08-0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis showed smoking increased EDSS, insignificant findings were possibly due to the small number of studies, significant differences in methodologies, and variations in reporting of disability outcomes.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability of 310 Diseases and Injuries in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Due to significant achievements in reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy, the issue of disability from diseases and injuries, and their related interventions, has become one of the most important concerns of health-related research.

METHODS

Using data obtained from the GBD 2015 study, the present report provides prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of 310 diseases and injuries by sex and age in Iran and neighboring countries over the period 1990-2015. Age-standardized rates of all causes of YLDs are presented for both males and females in 16 countries for 1990 and 2015. We present the percentage of total YLDs for 21 categories of diseases and injuries, the percentage of YLDs for age groups, as well as the ranking of the most prevalent causes and YLDs from the top 50 diseases and injuries in Iran.

RESULTS

In 2015, the burden of 310 diseases and injuries among the Iranian population was responsible for 8,357,878 loss of all-age total years, which is equal to 10.58% of total years lived per year. This differs from the neighboring countries, as it ranges from 9.05% in Turkmenistan to 13.36% in Russia. During the past 25 years, a remarkable decrease was observed in all-cause YLD rates in all 16 countries. Meanwhile, in all countries, the age-standardized rate of all causes of YLDs was higher in females than males.

CONCLUSION

Based on our findings, one of the remarkable changes in NCDs observed among the studied age groups was increased rate of YLDs from mental disorders, which was replaced by musculoskeletal disorders in older age groups in 2015.

Trend of Socio-Demographic Index and Mortality Estimates in Iran and its Neighbors, 1990-2015; Findings of the Global Burden of Diseases 2015 Study

BACKGROUND

The Global burden of disease and injuries study (GBD 2015) reports expected measures for years of life lost (YLL) based on socio-demographic index (SDI) of countries, as well as the observed measures. In this extended GBD 2015 report, we reviewed total and cause-specific deaths and YLL for Iran and all its neighboring countries between 1990 and 2015.

METHODS

We extracted data from the GBD 2015 database. Observed YLL measures were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths by standard life expectancy at each age. SDI was a composite index, calculated based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. The GBD world population was used for age standardization.

RESULTS

All-ages crude death rate in Iran reduced from 665.6 per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval: 599.3-731.6) in 1990 to 487.2 (414.9-566.1) in 2015. The ratio of observed to expected YLL (O/E ratio) for all-causes ranged between 0.54 (Turkey) and 1.95 (Russia) in 2015. For Iran, the all-causes O/E ratio was less than 1 in all years (1990-2015), except 2003. However, cause-specific O/E ratio was more than 1 for some causes, including the top leading causes of YLL (ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and cerebrovascular disorders). Ischemic heart disease was the first or second cause of YLL in all comparator countries except Afghanistan.

CONCLUSION

The leading YLL causes with high O/E ratios should be prioritized in public health efforts. In addition to research evidence, countries with low O/E ratios should be scrutinized to find feasible innovative interventions.

Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) for 315 Diseases and Injuries and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures.

METHODS

We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling.

RESULTS

All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq.

CONCLUSIONS

The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors.

Multiple sclerosis and air pollution exposure: Mechanisms toward brain autoimmunity

The association between neurodegenerative diseases and environmental exposures, in particular air pollution, has been noticed in the last two decades, but the importance of this environmental factor in multiple sclerosis (MS) pathogenesis has not been considered extensively. However, recent evidence suggests that major mechanisms involved in MS pathogenesis, such as inflammatory factors expression, free radicals overproduction, the blood brain barrier (BBB) breakdown, neuroinflammation, vitamin D deficiency and mitochondrial dysfunction could also occur due to exposure to air pollutants. A prospective hypothesis is suggested here in which exposure to air pollutants may initiate destructive mechanisms inducing inflammatory-oxidative cascades, reduction of immunological self-tolerance and neurodegeneration leading to brain autoimmunity.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background

The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.

Methods

GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically.

Findings

The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred.

Interpretation

Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Multiple Sclerosis Epidemiology in East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common chronic immune-mediated diseases of the human central nervous system and an important cause of non-traumatic neurologic disability among young population in several countries. Recent reports from East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia have proposed a low to moderate prevalence of MS in these countries.

METHODS

A literature review search was carried out in December 2014 in Medline, Embase, Scopus and Cochrane library to recover original population-based studies on MS epidemiology in East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia countries published between January 1, 1950 and December 30, 2014. We intended search strategies using the key words: multiple sclerosis, prevalence, incidence and epidemiology. Based on our inclusion criteria, 68 epidemiologic studies were included in this systematic review.

RESULTS

The most extensively used diagnostic criteria in the studies were McDonald's criteria. Most studies were performed in a multi-center hospital setting. The female to male ratio varied and ranged from 0.7 in India to 9.0 in China. The mean age at disease onset ranged from the lowest age of 25.3 in Iran to the highest age of 46.4 in China. MS prevalence ranged from 0.77 in 100,000 populations in Hong Kong (1999) to 85.80 in 100,000 in Iran (2013).

CONCLUSIONS

Advances in MS registries around the globe allow nationwide population-based studies and will allow worldly comparisons between the prevalence and incidence in different regions that are provided to monitor estimation.

Behavioral despair associated with a mouse model of Crohn's disease: Role of nitric oxide pathway

Crohn's disease (CD) is associated with increased psychiatric co-morbidities. Nitric oxide (NO) is implicated in inflammation and tissue injury in CD, and it may also play a central role in pathogenesis of the accompanying behavioral despair. This study investigated the role of the NO pathway in behavioral despair associated with a mouse model of CD. Colitis was induced by intrarectal (i.r.) injection of 2,4,6-trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (10mg TNBS in 50% ethanol). Forced swimming test (FST), pharmacological studies and tissues collection were performed 72 h following TNBS administration. To address a possible inflammatory origin for the behavioral despair following colitis induction, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) level was measured in both the hippocampal and colonic tissue samples. In parallel, hippocampal inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and nitrite level were evaluated. Pharmacological studies targeting the NO pathway were performed 30-60 min before behavioral test. Colitis was confirmed by increased colonic TNF-α level and microscopic score. Colitic mice demonstrated a significantly higher immobility time in the FST associated to a significant increase of hippocampal TNF-α, iNOS expression and nitrite content. Acute NOS inhibition using either Nω-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester (a non-specific NOS inhibitor) or aminoguanidine hydrochloride (a specific iNOS inhibitor) decreased the immobility time in colitic groups. Moreover, acute treatment with both NOS inhibitors decreased the TNF-α level and nitrite content in the hippocampal samples. This study suggests that the NO pathway may be involved in the behavioral effects in the mouse TNBS model of CD. These findings endow new insights into the gut-brain communication during the development of colonic inflammation, which may ultimately lead to improved therapeutic strategies to combat behavior changes associated with gastrointestinal disorders.

Air pollution, a rising environmental risk factor for cognition, neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration: The clinical impact on children and beyond

Air pollution (indoors and outdoors) is a major issue in public health as epidemiological studies have highlighted its numerous detrimental health consequences (notably, respiratory and cardiovascular pathological conditions). Over the past 15 years, air pollution has also been considered a potent environmental risk factor for neurological diseases and neuropathology. This review examines the impact of air pollution on children's brain development and the clinical, cognitive, brain structural and metabolic consequences. Long-term potential consequences for adults' brains and the effects on multiple sclerosis (MS) are also discussed. One challenge is to assess the effects of lifetime exposures to outdoor and indoor environmental pollutants, including occupational exposures: how much, for how long and what type. Diffuse neuroinflammation, damage to the neurovascular unit, and the production of autoantibodies to neural and tight-junction proteins are worrisome findings in children chronically exposed to concentrations above the current standards for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and may constitute significant risk factors for the development of Alzheimer's disease later in life. Finally, data supporting the role of air pollution as a risk factor for MS are reviewed, focusing on the effects of PM10 and nitrogen oxides.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Potential impact of air pollution on multiple sclerosis in Tehran, Iran

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence has dramatically increased in Tehran, Iran. The health impact of air pollution in Tehran underscores the attention to a possible association to this environmental risk factor. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of prevalent MS cases and their association with the spatial patterns of air pollution.

METHODS

Patient records meeting McDonald's criteria for definite MS diagnosis with disease onset during 2003-2013 were obtained. Next, the location of 2,188 patients was successfully geo-referenced within Tehran metropolis by geographic information system (GIS) bureau of Iran's post office based on their phone numbers. A cluster analysis was performed using the average nearest neighbor index (ANNI) and quadrat analysis. The long-term exposures of MS patients to particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were estimated using the previously developed land use regression models.

RESULTS

Prevalent MS cases had a clustered pattern in Tehran. A significant difference in exposure to PM10, SO2, NO2, and NOx (p < 0.001) was observed in MS cases compared with controls.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed the potential role of long-term exposure to air pollutants as an environmental risk factor in MS.

Multiple Sclerosis Epidemiology in Middle East and North Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common neurological disorders and a leading cause of nontraumatic disability in young adults in many countries. Recent reports from the Middle East and North Africa have suggested a moderate to high risk of MS in these countries. Methods: A literature search was performed in August 2014 in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and IMEMR to retrieve original population-based studies on MS epidemiology in the Middle East and North African countries published between 1st January 1985 and 1st August 2014. We designed search strategies using the key words: MS, prevalence, incidence, and epidemiology. According to the inclusion criteria, 52 studies were included in this systematic review. Results: McDonald's criteria were the most widely used diagnostic criteria in the studies. Most studies were conducted in single hospital-based centers with a defined catchment area. The female/male ratio ranged from 0.8 in Oman to 4.3 in Saudi Arabia. MS prevalence ranged from 14.77/100,000 population in Kuwait (2000) to 101.4/100,000 in Turkey (2006). The overall MS prevalence in the region was 51.52/100,000. The mean age at disease onset ranged from 25.2 years in Kuwait to 32.5 years in Northeastern Iran, with an overall estimate of 28.54 years. Conclusions: Recent advances in MS registries will allow nation-wide studies and temporal comparisons between countries, provided that age- and sex-standardized estimates are available.

A further TWEAK to multiple sclerosis pathophysiology

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) is a member of the TNF super family that controls many cellular activities including proliferation, migration, differentiation, apoptosis, and inflammation by binding to fibroblast growth factor-inducible 14 (Fn14), a highly inducible cell surface receptor. Recent studies have indicated that TWEAK-Fn14 axis signaling may contribute to chronic autoimmune diseases. TWEAK expression via microglia in cortical lesions, presence of TWEAK(+) macrophages in inflamed leptomeninges, and absence of TWEAK/Fn14 expression in healthy brain implicates importance of this pathway in pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis lesions. TWEAK-Fn14 axis blockade has also shown promise in various multiple sclerosis animal models. Stimulation of the TWEAK/Fn14 pathway can result in activation of both canonical and noncanonical NF-κB signaling and could also stimulate mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathways. Here, we have reviewed evidence of the possible role of TWEAK-Fn14 axis in pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis and experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) via neuroinflammation, tissue remodeling, blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption, neurodegeneration, and astrogliosis.

Estradiol reduces depressive-like behavior through inhibiting nitric oxide/cyclic GMP pathway in ovariectomized mice

Estradiol decline has been associated with depressive-like behavior in female mice and NO has been suggested to play a major role in the pathogenesis of major depression. This study was conducted to investigate the antidepressant-like effects of acute estradiol administration in female ovariectomized (OVX) mice and the possible role of nitric oxide (NO)/cyclic GMP (cGMP) pathway. To this end, bilateral ovariectomy was performed in female mice and different doses of estradiol were injected alone or in combination with non-specific NO synthase (NOS) inhibitor (L-NAME), selective neural NOS (nNOS) inhibitor (7-NI), an NO precursor (L-arginine) or selective phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor (sildenafil). The duration of immobility was recorded in the forced swimming test (FST) to assess the depressive behavior. Moreover, hippocampal levels of NO were determined in select groups. 10 days following the procedure, OVX mice showed significantly prolonged immobility time in comparison with the sham group. Estradiol (3, 10, and 30 μg/kg, s.c.), when injected 1 h prior to FST, exerted antidepressant-like effects in OVX mice. Both L-NAME (30 mg/kg, i.p.), and 7-NI (50 mg/kg, i.p.) significantly reduced the immobility times of OVX mice. Administration of a sub-effective dose of L-NAME (10mg/kg), 15 min after a sub-effective dose of estradiol (1 μg/kg, s.c.) had a robust antidepressant-like effect in OVX mice. Also a sub-effective dose of 7-NI (25 mg/kg), 30 min after a sub-effective dose of estradiol (1 μg/kg, s.c.) showed antidepressant-like effect in OVX mice. Both the NO precursor L-arginine (750 mg/kg, i.p.) and the cGMP-specific phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor sildenafil (5 mg/kg, i.p.), 30 min before estradiol treatment, prevented the antidepressant-like effect of a potent dose of estradiol (10 μg/kg, s.c.) in OVX mice. The present findings suggest that suppression of the NO synthase/NO/cGMP pathway may be involved in the antidepressant-like effects of estradiol in OVX mice.

Medical podcasting in Iran; pilot, implementation and attitude evaluation

Podcasting has become a popular means of transferring knowledge in higher education through making lecture contents available to students at their convenience. Accessing courses on media players provides students with enhanced learning opportunities. Development of teaching methods able to cope with ever-changing nature of medicine is crucial to train the millennium students. Pharmacology education in Tehran University of Medical Sciences has been based on lectures so far; our aim was to implement a pilot study to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of offering the course contents as podcasts as well as evaluating whether such program can be feasible in our educational program. 46% of students downloaded the podcast according to our download center. 48% favored usage of both internet and DVD-ROM concurrently. Overall 96% of students perceived that podcasting had a positive impact on their learning in pharmacology course. Our results indicate that most of attendants proposed the positive yields of podcasting despite low usage of it, mainly as a pre-class preparing tool.

NMDA receptor involvement in antidepressant-like effect of pioglitazone in the forced swimming test in mice

RATIONALE

Previously, we showed that pioglitazone exerts its antidepressant-like effect through peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma receptors and demonstrated the possible involvement of calcium-dependent nitric oxide synthase inhibitors. Based upon the in vitro results, pioglitazone reduces N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)-mediated calcium currents in hippocampal neurons.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we evaluated the involvement of the NMDA receptor (NMDAR) on the antidepressant-like effect of pioglitazone in the forced swimming test (FST) in mice.

METHOD

After the assessment of locomotor activity in the open-field test, mice were forced to swim individually and the immobility time of the last 4 min was evaluated. Pioglitazone was administered orally with doses of 5, 10, and 20 mg/kg 4 h before FST. To assess the involvement of NMDARs in the possible antidepressant-like effect of pioglitazone, a selective glutamate receptor agonist, NMDA (75 mg/kg, intraperitoneally [i.p.] or 20 ng/mouse, intracerebroventricularly [i.c.v.]), was administered before pioglitazone (20 mg/kg). To further determine a possible role of NMDARs in this effect, a noncompetitive antagonist of the NMDA, MK-801 (0.05 mg/kg, i.p. or 100 ng/mouse, i.c.v.), was coadministered with pioglitazone (10 mg/kg) 4 h prior to FST.

RESULTS

Pioglitazone (20 mg/kg) administered 4 h prior to FST significantly reduced the immobility time. Coadministration of the noneffective doses of pioglitazone and MK-801 revealed an antidepressant-like effect in FST. Moreover, NMDA significantly reversed the antidepressant-like effect of pioglitazone administered 4 h prior to FST.

CONCLUSION

The antidepressant-like effect of pioglitazone in the FST is mediated partly through NMDAR signaling. This study provides a new approach for the treatment of depression.

Voltage-dependent calcium channel and NMDA receptor antagonists augment anticonvulsant effects of lithium chloride on pentylenetetrazole-induced clonic seizures in mice

Although lithium is still a mainstay in the treatment of bipolar disorder, its underlying mechanisms of action have not been completely elucidated. Several studies have shown that lithium can also modulate seizure susceptibility in a variety of models. In the present study, using a model of clonic seizures induced with pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) in male Swiss mice, we investigated whether there is any interaction between lithium and either calcium channel blockers (CCBs: nifedipine, verapamil, and diltiazem) or N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists (ketamine and MK-801) in modulating seizure threshold. Acute lithium administration (5-100mg/kg, ip) significantly (P<0.01) increased seizure threshold. CCBs and NMDA receptor antagonists also exerted dose-dependent anticonvulsant effects on PTZ-induced seizures. Noneffective doses of CCBs (5mg/kg, ip), when combined with a noneffective dose of lithium (5mg/kg, ip), exerted significant anticonvulsant effects. Moreover, co-administration of a noneffective dose of either MK-801 (0.05mg/kg, ip) or ketamine (5mg/kg, ip) with a noneffective dose of lithium (5mg/kg, ip) significantly increased seizure threshold. Our findings demonstrate that lithium increases the clonic seizure threshold induced by PTZ in mice and interacts with either CCBs or NMDA receptor antagonists in exerting this effect, suggesting a role for Ca(2+) signaling in the anticonvulsant effects of lithium in the PTZ model of clonic seizures in mice.

Determination of sensitivity of male Wistar rats to an equal dose of ketamine/xylazine injection at anesthetic dose in a chronic model of hypernatremia in comparison with control group

OBJECTIVE

To determine the sensitivity to an equal dose of ketamine/xylazine injection at anesthetic dose in a chronic model of hypernatremia.

METHODS

This study was conducted at the Department of Physiology, Zanjan University of Medical Science, Zanjan, Iran in 2004. Sixty male Wistar rats, weighing 250 +/- 20 g were randomly allocated to 3 groups. The control group was provided with tap water, and first and second test groups consumed 1% and 2% salt concentrations for 144 hours. One hundred mg/kg ketamine and 10 mg/kg xylazine were used as an anesthetic agent. The measured anesthetic parameters comprises of righting reflex latency, required time for establishment of animal's immobility, immobility period, required time for appearance of animal's mobility and complete re-establishment of the righting reflex.

RESULTS

The required time for inhibition of the righting reflex and animal's mobility in the second group was significantly shorter than the first and control groups. Immobility period, required time for appearance of animal's mobility and complete re-establishment of the righting reflex in the second group were significantly longer than the first and control groups.

CONCLUSION

Hypernatremia increases the speed of transition from different steps of ketamine/xylazine anesthesia with significant delay in immobility period and recovery from anesthesia in rats, hence, anesthetic dose reduction in hypernatremia is necessary.