Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vigilance Needed in Treating a Child with Disseminated TB: A Case Report

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is still one of the biggest causes of infection-related death around the world. Disseminated tuberculosis is a potentially fatal disease caused by the haematogenous spread of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. First-line anti-tuberculosis drugs in-clude isoniazid, rifampicin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol. The first three drugs are known to cause hepatotoxicity.

CASE PRESENTATION

We have, herein, reported a case of Drug-induced Liver Injury (DILI) due to anti-tuberculosis therapy in a one-year-old male child with disseminated tuberculosis. He was started on a fixed-dose combination of Anti-tuberculosis Therapy (ATT; isoniazid 50 mg, rifampicin 75 mg, and pyrazinamide 150 mg) and pyridoxine 10 mg orally. Initially, liver pa-rameters were normal, but later on with the course of the treatment, there was a rapid rise in liver enzymes, suggesting liver injury.

DISCUSSION

The association between liver injury and anti-tuberculosis therapy has been con-firmed by applying various causality association scales. It is obvious that proper treatment of disseminated tuberculosis can avoid the development of drug-resistant strains that can be harm-ful, worsening the prognosis as there are fewer therapeutic alternatives available. At the same time, there is a need to monitor the patient with ATT-induced DILI.

CONCLUSION

The diagnosis of tuberculosis in children is difficult because of the mild, nonspe-cific clinical presentation, which usually reflects the implicated underlying organ. In addition to prompt diagnosis and treatment of disseminated TB, careful monitoring is equally important.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dog Bite Injury: Rusk Became a Risk - A Case Report

BACKGROUND

Dog bites are a worldwide problem that disproportionately affects children. It might be difficult to keep in mind that even a man's closest buddy can be dangerous to people. In light of the significant morbidity and mortality associated with dog bites, we report, herein, an intriguing case in which a two-year-old boy appeared with eyelid facial lacerations as a result of a dog bite.

CASE PRESENTATION

A two-year-old boy presented with bleeding around the right and left eyes. Local examination of the eyes revealed laceration and disfiguration of the left orbit and abrasion around the right eye. Preoperatively, parenteral antibiotics were started and continued postoperatively. Dressing was done for the right eye. Lid reconstruction surgery for the left eye was scheduled and it was carried out under general anaesthesia. The child was monitored for a month and showed satisfactory wound healing with no visible scars or complications.

DISCUSSION

The standard treatment for bites is direct suture, grafting, or local flaps, depending on the type of wound and the surgeon's preference, regardless of the time since the attack. Crush wounds are difficult to treat because the damage to the tissues is often so profound that amputation is unavoidable.

CONCLUSION

The global injuries caused by dog bites are the consequence of uncommon illnesses and often manifest as peri-orbital and ocular lesions. Most rabies cases occur in underserved rural and urban areas, with a high frequency of stray dogs without immunisation.

A Systematic Review of the COVID Vaccine's Impact on the Nervous System

AIMS & OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of research pertaining to the COVID-19 vaccine and its association with neurological complications.

METHOD

We performed a comprehensive search of the literature using Google Scholar, PubMed, and NCBI databases from December 2021 to December 2022. For Google Scholar, PubMed, and NCBI databases we used the following key search terms: "neurological adverse effects", "COVID-19 vaccination", "SARS-CoV-2", CNS complications, and CNS adverse effects. Two reviewer authors individually searched and assessed the titles and abstracts of all articles. The third reviewer resolved the disagreement between them. Data were documented regarding title, study location, type of study, type of COVID-19 vaccine, type of neurological complications/adverse effects, and sample size.

RESULTS

From our findings, it is confirmed that these neurological complications like GuillainBarre syndrome (23.6%), Neuromyelitis Optica spectrum disorder (5.5%), Neuropathy (6.9%), Transverse Myelitis (8.3%) and Acute disseminated Encephalomyelitis (4.1%) are majorly affected in most of the people. The increase in risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection far outweighs any previously reported associations with vaccination.

CONCLUSION

We found no safety signal was observed between COVID-19 vaccines and the immune-mediated neurological events. Before assuming a causal relationship, the side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine should first be carefully examined to rule out known associated factors. Symptom onset was within two weeks of vaccination in the majority of cases; as such, this seems to be a high-risk period warranting vigilance.

Kisspeptin and its Current Clinical Status- A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Kisspeptin was initially known as metastin for its role in suppressing metastasis in melanoma and breast cancer. Later, based on its ability to stimulate GPR54, its importance in maintaining an intact hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis was recognised, which is the basis for the widespread application of the drug in several conditions such as secondary amenorrhea, regulation of puberty onset, ovarian function, trophoblast invasion, fertility regulation, parturition, and lactation. This systematic study aims to evaluate the current status of kisspentin in clinical trials.

METHODS

The keywords 'kisspeptin' or 'metastin' were used in the clinicaltrials.gov website and Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI) to find eligible clinical trials or records carried out without time constraints until February 26, 2023.

RESULTS

A total of 33 records were identified through clinical trial databases. All records were screened, and four trials were rejected as they failed to meet the inclusion criteria. Finally, 29 (87.9%) reports of interventional clinical trials with kisspeptin were reviewed.

CONCLUSION

Kisspeptin can be viewed as a multipurpose drug with considerably fewer side effects due to its effects simulating normal physiological processes in our body.

Sulbactam-Durlobactam, A Novel Drug for the Treatment of Multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Infections - A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Sulbactam-durlobactam (SUL-DUR) has been tested in vitro for its ability to gen- erate resistance in clinical isolates of Acinetobacter species. According to prior studies, combining durlobac- tam with sulbactam causes sulbactam-resistant isolates to become more active and revert to susceptibility. We aimed to conduct a systematic review of the in vitro activity of SUL-DUR on A. baumannii (Ab) iso- lates, including carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii (CRAb), to provide an overview for physicians dealing with Ab infections.

METHODS

The following keywords were searched in the PubMed, Google Scholar, and EMBASE databases to look for eligible original works that have been published without restrictions till June 30, 2023: A. bau- mannii and sulbactam-durlobactam, SUL-DUR, durlobactam, and sulbactam-ETX2514. We also searched clinicaltrials.gov and the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI) for clinical trials involving sulbactam- durlobactam and Acinetobacter.

RESULTS

There were a total of 852 abstracts found. Among them, 633 articles with titles, abstracts, and key- words were reviewed, and 574 articles were removed after the initial screening. A total of 59 full-text eligi- ble articles were evaluated, and 51 of them were eliminated because they did not satisfy the criteria set for inclusion. The full texts of the final 8 in vitro studies on A. baumanii and sulbactam/durlobactam were fur- ther evaluated. There were 5 trials on A. baumanii and sulbactam/durlobactam found on clinicaltrials.gov and the Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI).

CONCLUSION

The findings from the studies show that SUL-DUR might be a successful therapeutic option for multidrug-resistant-Ab infections. Future clinical trials will be required to validate the possibility of using this combination to treat multidrug-resistant A. baumannii infections.

Treatment Modalities for Trigeminal Neuralgia and the Need for Vigilance in Monitoring Adverse Drug Events: A Case Report

INTRODUCTION

Trigeminal neuralgia is a rare condition characterised by paroxysms of intense pain in the distribution of the trigeminal nerve. This condition significantly diminishes the patient's quality of life, and the side effects from chronic use of medications for symptomatic relief further exacerbate their distress.

CASE DESCRIPTION

The case report discusses a patient diagnosed with Trigeminal Neuralgia who commenced carbamazepine treatment. The report tracks the disease's progression, medication adjustments, and the eventual emergence of vertigo due to long-term carbamazepine use.

CONCLUSION

The article covers fundamental information about trigeminal neuralgia and its management and also offers a comprehensive review of the basics of vertigo. It delves into carbamazepine's mechanism of action and its associated side effects. The paper also looks at prospective therapy changes that could improve patients' quality of life.

Recent Updates on Nanocarriers for Drug Delivery in Posterior Segment Diseases with Emphasis on Diabetic Retinopathy

In recent years, various conventional formulations have been used for the treatment and/or management of ocular medical conditions. Diabetic retinopathy, a microvascular disease of the retina, remains the leading cause of visual disability in patients with diabetes. Currently, for treating diabetic retinopathy, only intraocular, intravitreal, periocular injections, and laser photocoagulation are widely used. Frequent administration of these drugs by injections may lead to serious complications, including retinal detachment and endophthalmitis. Although conventional ophthalmic formulations like eye drops, ointments, and suspensions are available globally, these formulations fail to achieve optimum drug therapeutic profile due to immediate nasolacrimal drainage, rapid tearing, and systemic tearing toxicity of the drugs. To achieve better therapeutic outcomes with prolonged release of the therapeutic agents, nano-drug delivery materials have been investigated. These nanocarriers include nanoparticles, solid lipid nanoparticles (SLN), nanostructured lipid carriers (NLC), dendrimers, nanofibers, in-situ gel, vesicular carriers, niosomes, and mucoadhesive systems, among others. The nanocarriers carry the potential benefits of site-specific delivery and controlled and sustained drug release profile. In the present article, various nanomaterials explored for treating diabetic retinopathy are reviewed.

Antimicrobial Stewardship Program: Time to be Focused in Speciality Settings of Leprosy Institute and Related Health Care Setup

Leprosy, often known as Hansen's disease is a contagious chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae). Our methodology is easily repeatable in tertiary care settings with diagnostic accuracy resources and staff capable of building a stewardship team. Comprehensive antimicrobial policies and programmes are required to properly alleviate the initial issue.

Analysis of Research Publications on Pharmacogenomics of Sulphonylurea - A Scientometric Study

This study analysed pharmacogenomics studies on sulfonylurea research publications using the Pubmed and Scopus databases. In the end, 65 publications from the years 2015 to 2021 were noticed. The objective of this study was to analyse these studies using scientometric tools, such as frequency counts, percentages, relative growth rates, doubling times, and collectively. A maximum of 19 (29.23%) research publications were contributed during the 2020 research period. The relative growth rate tends to decrease from 2015 to 2020 and the doubling time tends to increase and decrease after 2020. Up to 2 (3.08%) research publications were contributed by Ewan R. Pearson and Chen each. The top authors have an average degree of collaboration of 0.90 and 41 (63.83%) of their research publications are articles. The United States is the major contributor with 19 (29.23%) pharmacogenomics research publications on sulfonylureas. Although the United States is the most prolific country in sulfonylurea pharmacogenomics research, there are few Indian institutions that are not listed among the most prolific institutions.

Nutritional Status in Leprosy Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Leprosy, a chronic mycobacterial disease, is frequently accompanied by malnutrition. However, it is important to regularly assess the nutritional state of leprosy patients in a resource-poor nation like India, where undernutrition is widespread.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to compare the nutritional status of leprosy patients to that of normal individuals using the body mass index.

METHODS

The electronic databases PubMed, Google Scholar, and Embase were used to conduct an open literature search. From 1st January 2000 to 31st January 2023, all articles were screened using the following MeSH terms: (nutrition OR body mass index OR body weight) AND (leprosy OR lepra) to find possibly relevant articles.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis includes five research studies with a total of 1173 individuals (363 patients in the leprosy group and 810 patients in the non-leprosy group). The weighted mean difference (WMD) for BMI studies was -17.88 (95% CI -27.65 to -8.12), showing that there was a significant difference in BMI < 18.5 between leprosy patients and non-leprosy patients. There was a significant difference in DDS score and HFIAS score between patients with leprosy and non-leprosy. In a total of 342 leprosy patients, 206 developed deformities.

CONCLUSION

This research increases our understanding of nutrition and leprosy. The results found that people with leprosy are nutritionally at a distinct disadvantage when compared to non-leprosy patients. It emphasises the several ways in which diet may generate circumstances that increase the risk of leprosy.

Bedaquiline's Safety Profile Monitoring in India: Considerations for Future - A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is still one of the top causes of infection-related death globally. Drug-resistant tuberculosis has a high mortality rate and is still a serious public health concern around the world. The appearance of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis has increased the need for new therapeutic options against these strains. Most of the drugs used to treat them have been poorly tested and have serious negative effects. Patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis have been fighting for access to experimental medications, particularly bedaquiline.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to summarise the existing evidence of bedaquiline's safety on drugresistant tuberculosis treatment outcome and look for bedaquiline-related adverse drug reactions in the Pharmacovigilance Programme of India and World Health Organisation - Uppsala Monitoring Centre database.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed database for relevant studies on the safety profile of bedaquiline used in the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis and bedaquiline-related adverse drug reactions in the Pharmacovigilance Programme of India and World Health Organisation - Uppsala Monitoring Centre database published up to April 25, 2022.

RESULTS

A total of 190 abstracts were identified through the Pubmed database. In a list of 157 fulltext eligible articles assessed, 149 were excluded as they did not meet the inclusion criteria. The complete articles of the remaining 8 studies were further evaluated. There were 4 prospective cohorts, 2 retrospective cohorts, and 2 case series.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacovigilance and medication safety monitoring of newer treatments, like bedaquiline, are critical for enhancing treatment support and adherence, especially among drugresistant tuberculosis patients.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Efficacy and safety of sufentanil sublingual tablet system in postoperative pain management: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sufentanil sublingual tablet system (SSTS) is a recently approved formulation for postoperative pain management that has become popular due to its pharmacokinetic properties such as good bioavailability, rapid attainment of equilibrium and elimination without any metabolites, along with its pharmacodynamic properties such as rapid onset and effective pain reduction. It is also relatively well tolerated by patients.

OBJECTIVE

This is a quantitative analysis of the efficacy and safety of SSTS in patients with moderate to severe postoperative pain.

DESIGN

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis. Databases such as Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for eligible articles.

SETTINGS

Randomised controlled trials published after 2000 in English language and which assessed at least one of the outcome measures of interest with pain intensity difference between 12 hours and a maximum of 96 hours.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with moderate to severe postoperative pain and taking SSTS for pain management.

METHODS

Data were analysed using Review Manager (RevMan) V.5.3. Risk of bias (RoB) assessment was done using RoB-2 scale, and overall grading of evidence of each outcome was done using GRADEpro Guideline Development Tool.

RESULTS

Analysis of SSTS versus control indicates a statistically significant reduction in summed pain intensity difference at 12 hours (mean difference (MD)=-12.33 (95% CI -15.5 to -9.17), p<0.00001), summed pain intensity difference at 48 hours (MD=-43.57 (95% CI -58.65 to -28.48), p<0.00001), time-weighted total pain relief over 12 hours (MD=-4.77 (95% CI -6.28 to -3.27), p<0.00001) and pain intensity difference (MD=-0.73 (95% CI -1.00 to -0.46), p<0.00001) with SSTS, alongside high quality of evidence. Success of treatment as assessed by Patient Global Assessment (OR=4.01 (95% CI 2.74 to 5.89), p<0.00001) and Healthcare Professional Global Assessment (OR=4.46 (95% CI 3.03 to 6.56), p<0.00001) scoring at 72 hours was observed in a significantly high number of individuals using SSTS, with high quality of evidence. There was no difference in adverse events except for dizziness (RR=1.90, 95% CI 1.02 to 3.52). There was a significantly higher number of total adverse events in orthopaedic surgery in the SSTS group than in the comparator.

CONCLUSION

SSTS is effective in postoperative pain management in patients with moderate to severe pain. It also has good tolerability and high patient satisfaction.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018115458.

Awareness Regarding Antimicrobial Resistance and Antibiotic Prescribing Behavior among Physicians: Results from a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey in India

(1) Background: Understanding the physicians' knowledge, attitudes, and antimicrobial prescribing behavior is a crucial step towards designing strategies for the optimal use of these agents. (2) Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among clinicians across India between May and July 2022 using a self-administered questionnaire in English comprising 35 questions pertaining to demographic characteristics, knowledge, attitude, and practices domains. (3) Results: A total of 544 responses were received from 710 physicians contacted. Sixty percent of participants were males, with mean age of 34.7 years. Mean ± Standard Deviation scores for knowledge, attitude, and practices domains were 8 ± 1.6, 20.2 ± 3.5, and 15.3 ± 2.1, respectively. Higher scores were associated with basic [odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval), p value: 2.95 (1.21, 7.2), 0.02], medical and allied sciences [2.71 (1.09, 6.67), 0.03], and central zone [3.75 (1.39, 10.12), 0.009]. A substantial proportion of dissatisfactory responses were found regarding hospital antibiograms, antibiotics effective against anaerobes, WHO AWaRe (access, watch, and reserve) classification of antibiotics, and the role of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures in the containment of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). (4) Conclusions: There is a need to sensitize and educate clinicians on various issues related to antimicrobial use, such as antibiograms, double anaerobic cover, IPC practices, and guideline-based recommendations, to curb the AMR pandemic.

Hybrid CNN-LSTM model with efficient hyperparameter tuning for prediction of Parkinson's disease

The patients' vocal Parkinson's disease (PD) changes could be identified early on, allowing for management before physically incapacitating symptoms appear. In this work, static as well as dynamic speech characteristics that are relevant to PD identification are examined. Speech changes or communication issues are among the challenges that Parkinson's individuals may encounter. As a result, avoiding the potential consequences of speech difficulties brought on by the condition depends on getting the appropriate diagnosis early. PD patients' speech signals change significantly from those of healthy individuals. This research presents a hybrid model utilizing improved speech signals with dynamic feature breakdown using CNN and LSTM. The proposed hybrid model employs a new, pre-trained CNN with LSTM to recognize PD in linguistic features utilizing Mel-spectrograms derived from normalized voice signal and dynamic mode decomposition. The proposed Hybrid model works in various phases, which include Noise removal, extraction of Mel-spectrograms, feature extraction using pre-trained CNN model ResNet-50, and the final stage is applied for classification. An experimental analysis was performed using the PC-GITA disease dataset. The proposed hybrid model is compared with traditional NN and well-known machine learning-based CART and SVM & XGBoost models. The accuracy level achieved in Neural Network, CART, SVM, and XGBoost models is 72.69%, 84.21%, 73.51%, and 90.81%. The results show that under these four machine approaches of tenfold cross-validation and dataset splitting without samples overlapping one individual, the proposed hybrid model achieves an accuracy of 93.51%, significantly outperforming traditional ML models utilizing static features in detecting Parkinson's disease.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, little comprehensive or recent evidence of the burden of NCDs among adolescents and young adults in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions is available. We aimed to report population shifts in people aged 10-24 years and their NCD burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We retrieved data from GBD 2019 for people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions from 1990 to 2019. We presented population shifts and analysed deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for NCDs. We also quantified the associations of deaths and DALYs with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) effective coverage index using Spearman correlation and linear regression analyses. Percentages are reported to 1 decimal place and rates are reported to 2 decimal places.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 559·2 million young people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia region and 335·0 million in the Western Pacific region; India and China remained the countries with greatest number of this age group. In 1990-2019, India had an absolute increase of 139·4 million adolescents, while China had a decrease of 134·3 million. In 2019, NCDs accounted for 27·3% (95% uncertainty interval 25·1 to 29·2) and 34·6% (33·5 to 36·1) of total deaths, and 49·8% (45·3 to 54·4) and 65·1% (60·6 to 69·3) of total DALYs in the South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions, respectively. Neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and mental disorders were the leading causes of NCD burden in 42 countries. Kiribati had the highest rates of deaths (62·82 [50·77 to 76·11] per 100 000 population), YLLs (4364·73 [3545·04 to 5275·63] per 100 000 population), and DALYs (9368·73 [7713·65 to 11340·99] per 100 000 population) for NCDs, whereas Australia (6976·51 [5044·46 to 9190·01] per 100 000 population) and New Zealand (6716·81 [4827·25 to 8827·69] per 100 000 population) had the largest rates of YLDs due to NCDs. From 1990 to 2019 across both regions, the rate of death due to NCDs declined by over a third (-32·8% [-41·1 to -22·9] in the South-East Asia region and -40·0% [-48·6 to -30·4] in the Western Pacific region), and DALYs decreased by about 12% (-12·0% [-16·8 to -7·7] in the South-East Asia region and -12·8% [-17·7 to -8·7] in the Western Pacific region), whereas the proportion of NCD burden relative to all-cause burden increased (45·7% [32·9 to 61·7] for deaths and 41·2% [35·2 to 48·8] for DALYs in the South-East Asia region; 11·8% [7·1 to 21·5] for deaths and 18·2% [14·6 to 22·0] for DALYs in the Western Pacific region). The rate of deaths and DALYs due to NCDs decreased monotonically alongside increases in SDI (rs=-0·57 [95% CI -0·81 to -0·32] for deaths and rs=-0·30 [-0·61 to 0·03] for DALYs). The rate of deaths (rs=-0·89 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·80]) and DALYs (rs=-0·67 [-0·93 to -0·41]) due to NCDs also decreased alongside increases in the UHC effective coverage index.

INTERPRETATION

Specific preventive and health service measures are needed for adolescents and young adults in countries with different levels of socioeconomic development to reduce the burden from NCDs.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Microteaching: Overview and examination evaluation

Nearly all teachers are forced into teaching and gain experience through time, but many do not feel adequately prepared for their fieldwork in their training program. Only solution which helps teachers and students is to connect theory to practice by microteaching. It is a strategy for acquiring teaching abilities on a smaller scale, in which teachers may practice previously learned skills as well as acquire new ones. The efficiency of microteaching may be predicted using feedback from participants. While preservice instructors benefit from microteaching and students themselves find it helpful, academics have not yet looked closely at the assignment itself to determine precisely what microteaching entails. As a result, this study aids in learning more about the interactional aspects of microteaching and the effect of it in both teachers and students.

A Very Rare Disease of Patent Urachus Cyst With Vesico-Umbilical Urinary Fistula in Adults: A Case Report and Short Review

Rare developmental anomalies known as urachal remnants are brought on by flaws in the foetal developmental process. However, depending on the location and degree of incomplete obliteration, the urachus can undergo a variety of urachal anomalies. An umbilical fistulogram and a voiding cystourethrogram both supported the existence of the adult urachal cyst in this case. To treat the sepsis, we provided the patient with antibiotics first, then a surgical procedure. The entire vesico-umbilical tract with the urachal cyst was removed using the open approach. The excised specimen's histology revealed a foreign body giant cell reaction without any indication of malignancy. The presentation and diagnosis of vesico-umbilical urinary fistula (VUUF) in adults can occasionally be difficult. They happen very rarely. So we began putting forward this case for the same reason.

Is Daclatasvir a suitable substitute for Amphotericin B in the treatment of Mucormycosis when Amphotericin B is scarce?

BACKGROUND

Mucormycosis has been infesting the universe for a while back, often with no prompt treatments. The disease devastation is spreading at an alarming rate. Many researchers are still hoping for a good potential drug that could help the healthcare system in this tussle. Molecular docking is an in silico tool that has gained popularity over the last few decades. Knowing the mechanism of enzymatic action is aided by imitating membrane protein actions in binding ligands.

AIM

The aim of this perspective is to determine whether an existing drug, daclatasvir, has antifungal activity.

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective of this in silico study was to investigate the potential effects of the binding affinity of daclatasvir with the crucial protein (1XFF) of mucormycosis, as well as the binding pattern of the active site amino acids with the drug molecule.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To calculate the binding affinity of daclatasvir to the fungal protein 1XFF, Auto Dock Vina was used for molecular docking studies. The CDOCKER protocol was used to determine the receptor-ligand interaction by configuring various parameters.

RESULTS

The docking energy of the ligand (daclatasvir) on the protein (1XFF) was found to be -16.7216 kcal/mol, while the interaction energy was found to be - 42.1314 kcal/mol.

CONCLUSION

The binding pattern completely alters the dynamics of the protein, resulting in the breakdown of the fungal wall. The vital protein (1XFF) of Rhizopus oryzae is proposed as a possible protein target for the non-structural protein 5A inhibitor/antiviral drug daclatasvir in this study.

A Change in the Trend of Quality Reporting in Leprosy Trials: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is a communicable disease caused by bacteria Mycobacterium Leprae. Despite all attempts, it has not been eradicated in several underdeveloped nations since the start of the antibiotic age. It's a social issue as well as a stigmatised disease. Due to these restrictions, randomised controlled trials in leprosy confront numerous obstacles, which are reflected in the quality of study reporting.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to use the Consolidated Standard for Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 checklist to assess the quality of leprosy trial reporting.

METHODS

We assess the quality of reporting of randomised control trials on leprosy conducted after 2010 in the PubMed database, using the CONSORT checklist 2010. Second, we compare the quality of RCT reporting before and after the release of the CONSORT guidelines in 2010.

RESULTS

A total of 19 full-text eligible articles were examined and included in the final list of articles, which were then evaluated further. 4 out of 19 trials had a compliance percentage of more than 75%. 6 out of 19 trials had compliance percentage of 50% to 75%. 9 trials had a compliance percentage of below 50%. Highest compliance was 86.48% and the lowest compliance was 32.43%. When compared with trials before 2010, we could see an improvement in some criteria showing a statistically significant rise in comparison with trials conducted before 2010.

CONCLUSION

Leprosy is still a concern in developing countries, which have failed to eradicate the disease despite their best efforts and resources. The compliance of leprosy related RCTs has improved since the introduction of the CONSORT guidelines, but the quality of reporting still remains on the lower side.

A perspective into"TEL" - Tenofovir, Emtricitabine, and Lamivudine antileprotic activities by drug repurposing and exploring the possibility of combination chemotherapy with drug rescued molecules for a leprosy free mankind

BACKGROUND

Since leprosy bacilli cannot grow in vitro, testing for antimicrobial resistance against Mycobacterium leprae or assessing the anti-leprosy activity of new drugs remains hard. Furthermore, developing a new leprosy drug through the traditional drug development process is not economically captivating for pharmaceutical companies. As a result, repurposing existing drugs/approved medications or their derivatives to test their anti-leprotic potency is a promising alternative. It is an accelerated method to uncover different medicinal and therapeutic properties in approved drug molecules.

AIM

The study aims to explore the binding potential of anti-viral drugs such as Tenofovir, Emtricitabine, and Lamivudine (TEL) against Mycobacterium leprae using molecular docking.

METHODS

The current study evaluated and confirmed the possibility of repurposing anti-viral drugs such as TEL (Tenofovir, Emtricitabine, and Lamivudine) by transferring the graphical window of the BIOVIA DS2017 with the Crystal Structure of a phosphoglycerate mutase gpm1 from Mycobacterium leprae (PDB ID:4EO9). Utilizing the smart minimizer algorithm, the protein's energy was reduced in order to achieve a stable local minima conformation.

RESULTS

The protein and molecule energy minimization protocol generated stable configuration energy molecules. The protein 4EO9 energy was reduced from 14264.5 kcal/mol to -17588.1 kcal/mol.

CONCLUSION

The CHARMm algorithm-based CDOCKER run docked all three molecules (TEL) inside the 4EO9 protein binding pocket (Mycobacterium leprae). The interaction analysis revealed that tenofovir had a better binding molecule with a score of -37.7297 kcal/mol than the other molecules.

Capecitabine and Hand-foot Syndrome: A Case Report

Capecitabine, a prodrug of 5-fluorouracil, is an FDA-approved drug for adjuvant treatment of colon, metastatic colorectal, and breast cancer. A variety of mucocutaneous adverse effects has been recognized with capecitabine. The pathogenesis of such manifestations still remains an enigma though various theories have been proposed. Here, we report two such cases. A 59-year-old female with carcinoma of the sigmoid colon on palliative therapy developed localized cutaneous hyperpigmentation of the palms and soles secondary to capecitabine in her 2nd cycle. Another case was of a 42-year-old female with stomach adenocarcinoma, who developed similar adverse effects after administration of capecitabine in her 4th cycle. Since these drugs have been widely used in recent years due to their relative ease in administration, the relative unawareness of Hand-foot syndrome (HFS) caused due to this drug makes it a prudent topic to be reported.

Molecular Docking Analysis of Adhatoda vasica with Thromboxane A2 Receptor (TXA2R) (6IIU) and Antiviral Molecules for Possible Dengue Complications

OBJECTIVE

The present study is an in silico model of platelet amplification potential of Adhatoda vasica, which can be used to treat thrombocytopenia in dengue complications.

METHODS

Docking studies have proved to be an essential tool that facilitates the structural diversity of natural products to be harnessed in an organized manner. In the present study, vasicine containing natural anti-dengue potential was subjected to docking studies using Schrodinger glides software (ver.11.1). The docking study was carried out to find out the potential molecular targets for selected protein. The docking was carried out on different ligands, like vasicine, ramatroban, chloroquine, celgosivir, and standard eltrombopag downloaded from PubChem and retrieved to glide software and ligands prepared using lig prep wizard. Docking was performed using the ligand docking wizard of Glide-maestro 2018.

RESULTS

The docking score of vasicine (-5.27) is nearly identical to the standard eltrombopag (-6.08), and both ligands bind with one hydrogen bond. The validation score of ramatroban is -12.39, binding with five hydrogen bonds, Celgosivir exhibited a docking score of -7.3 with three hydrogen bonds, and chloroquine displayed no hydrogen bond but had a docking score of -4.6.

CONCLUSION

Vasicine was found to be the most suitable target of platelet amplification potential from Adhatoda vasica. However, the molecular docking results are preliminary, and it has been indicated that vasicine could be one of the potential ligands to treat the thrombocytopenia of dengue; experimental evaluation will be carried out in the near future.

Rhinocerebral mucormycosis (RCM): To study the clinical spectrum and outcome of 61 cases of RCM managed at a tertiary care center in India

Background

Mucormycosis is a life-threatening infection of the paranasal sinuses and nasal cavities that can easily spread to the orbit and the brain. It is caused by fungi of the family Mucoraceae. We present a case series of 61 patients diagnosed and treated for rhinocerebral mucormycosis (RCM) at a single tertiary health care center.

Methods

After obtaining ethical clearance, all patient files with a final diagnosis of RCM were thoroughly analyzed in departmental records and a master chart was prepared. The study evaluated the etiology, clinical spectrum, diagnosis, management, complications, and outcome at 3 months of RCM cases.

Results

About 93.4% of the RCM cases were diabetic and an equal number had a past history of COVID infection. About 85.2% had received steroids for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 infection. The most common presentation of RCM was temporal lobe abscess (25.7%) followed by frontal lobe abscess (16.6%). At 3 months post-diagnosis, mortality in our study was 42.6%. About 26.2 % of the RCM cases had no disease, 23% had a static disease, and 8.2% had progressive disease at the end of 3 months.

Conclusion

We report the largest single-center case series of RCM, comprising 61 patients. This case series underscores the importance of the early diagnosis and prompt treatment for a better prognosis for this dreadful disease. The three pillars of treatment for RCM cases include reversal of the immunosuppressive state, administration of antifungal drugs, and extensive surgical debridement. In spite of all this, mortality remains high.

Leprosy Reactions: Clinical Pharmacologist Perspective with Repurposed Medications

The elimination of leprosy has been possible with the available anti-leprotic drugs. However, the lepra reactions usually occur months or years after multi-drug therapy completion, and continue to be a formidable challenge mainly owing to its role in causing nerve damage and disability. Corticosteroids are commonly used but they lead to systemic complications, and hence require dose reduction and adjunct therapy with a different target. Various drugs with different targets have been identified and are in practice to treat lepra reactions. The newer targets can include genetic and tissue targets in the skin and nerve. Thalidomide treatment reducing pentraxin-3, toll-like receptor antagonists, minocycline, apremilast, immunomodulators, and tenidap can be helpful in lepra reaction. Other modalities to manage lepra reactions include plasma exchange, intravenous immunoglobulins, and immunotherapy. Most of these treatments are based only on the pathological process of the reaction and tend to be incomplete leading to recurrence. Newer multimodal approaches are required based on various biomarkers (genetic, tissue, serological), which can be monitored to prevent the recurrence of reactions. Hence, there is a need for newer targets and drugs to be identified for the management of lepra reactions.

Current Status of Pharmacokinetic Research in Children: A Systematic Review of Clinical Trial Records

BACKGROUND

Many medications have different pharmacokinetics in children than in adults. Knowledge about the safety and efficacy of medications in children requires research into the pharmacokinetic profiles of children's medicines. By analysing registered clinical trial records, this study determined how frequently pharmacokinetic data is gathered in paediatric drug trials.

METHODS

We searched for the pharmacokinetic data from clinical trial records for preterm infants and children up to the age of 16 from January 2011 to April 2022. The records of trials involving one or more drugs in preterm infants and children up to the age of 16 were examined for evidence that pharmacokinetic data would be collected.

RESULTS

In a total of 1483 records of interventional clinical trials, 136 (9.17%) pharmacokinetic data involved adults. Of those 136 records, 60 (44.1%) records were pharmacokinetics trials involving one or more medicines in children up to the age of 16. 20 (33.3 %) in America, followed by 19 (31.6 %) in Europe. Most trials researched medicines in the field of infection or parasitic diseases 20 (33.3%). 27 (48.2%) and 26 (46.4%) trials investigated medicines that were indicated as essential medicine.

CONCLUSION

The pharmacokinetic characteristics of children's drugs need to be better understood. The current state of pharmacokinetic research appears to address the knowledge gap in this area adequately. Despite slow progress, paediatric clinical trials have experienced a renaissance as the significance of paediatric trials has gained international attention. The outcome of paediatric trials will have an impact on children's health in the future. In recent years, the need for greater availability and access to safe child-size pharmaceuticals has received a lot of attention.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

FINDINGS

There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.

INTERPRETATION

BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Repurposing Thalidomide, Its Analogue And Apremilast For Possible Antiviral In Situation Of Severe Covid Cytokine Syndrome

BACKGROUND

COVID-19, caused by SARS-corona virus-2, is a global wide expanded public health risk at a bizarre level. In this current situation, COVID-19 became a serious emerging pandemic. Choosing drug reusing is a crucial step in identifying the new uses of old established drugs. To achieve a significant and healthy way of treatment in COVID patients within a short duration, drug repurposing is a novel method.

OBJECTIVE

The present study concentrated on the molecular docking of thalidomide and its analogues and Apremilast against Coronavirus infectious symptoms, evaluated on virus proteins (Spike Protein, 3cl Protease, Nucleocapsids).

METHODS

The present study explores the possibility of repurposing thalidomide for the treatment of SARS-COV-2 infection by assessing and confirming with docking affinity scores of thalidomide & its analogues and Apremilast, with spike protein, 3cl protease, and nucleocapsids.

RESULTS

From the study results, thalidomide, pomalidomide, lenalidomide, and Apremilast exhibited better binding affinity to N Protein (4KXJ), Protease (4WY3) and Spike Protein (5WRG). In comparison of targets, N Protein - 4KXJ is the best for the four ligands. It is finalized that all four ligands (Thalidomide - -8.6, Pomalidomide - -8.8, Lenalidomide,and - -8.2,and Apremilast - -8.1) have good docking scores with the target N Protein.

CONCLUSION

The present study shows confirmation that thalidomide and its analogues and apremilast as a better fit for treating high risk patients of COVID -19 viral infection which are supposed to promote beneficial effects for both respiratory illnesses like COVID-19 symptoms as well as improve the pathological state of condition.

Pleural Effusion Indued By Systemic Consumption Of Topical Minoxidil: A Rare Case Report

Introduction:

Pleural effusions can be caused by several conditions such as cancer, connective tissue disease, and infection. They are occasionally caused due to the drug as an adverse reaction. Most commonly systemic minoxidil use can cause pleural effusions in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Case presentation:

We present a case of a patient without chronic kidney disease who developed pleural effusion as a result of unintentional use of topical minoxidil orally. The patient's oxygen saturation was 90% on room air, there was dullness to percussion and asymmetrical chest expansion with diminished air entry on both sides. In chest x-ray there was bilateral pleural opacities. In ultrasonography of the chest, it was showed minimal pleural effusions. The patient was managed with diuretics and airway management which resolved completely.

Conclusion:

Minoxidil is a commonly used drug by many people for the treatment of hair fall with or without doctor advice. We would like to stress that even though rare, physicians/pulmonologists should be aware of its rare side effects of topical minoxidil, and it should be kept in mind as a differential diagnosis for pleural effusion.

Proportion of New Onset of Anosmia and Its Diagnostic Significance in COVID-19

Objective: This study aimed to know the proportion of new-onset of anosmia and to find its diagnostic significance in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients attending the hospital.

Study design and duration: The Indian smell test in COVID-19 by AIIMS Raipur (ISCA-R) was developed for evaluating olfaction in the Indian population. The olfactory function was assessed using the corona scale on anosmia AIIMS Raipur (COSANAr).

Results: Out of 256 patients, 171 were males and 85 were females. In the majority of the patients, 75 (29.29%), the COSANAr score “0” was higher on the day of admission compared to the score “3” on the day of discharge with 61 (23.82%) patients. There was no improvement in 134 (52.34%) patients with loss of smell at the time of discharge.

Conclusion: This study is a step forward in identifying anosmia by ISCA-R at the early stages of the COVID phase. The COSANAr is affordable for the Indian population. It is noticed that most of the patients have mild hyposmia at the time of discharge and anosmia at the admission time.

A Survey from a Tertiary Care Hospital in India on Pediatric Medication Re-Dosing Practices After Patient Vomiting

OBJECTIVE

The study was started in our institution to analyze the clinical problem and identify the benefits and drawbacks of current practices associated with drug re-dosing after vomitting. Opinions and perspectives from health care professionals from various pediatric hospitals were also gathered to build an effective and systematic protocol.

METHODS

Survey participants were recruited by using email distribution lists and forums catering to health care. Using this, 2 online surveys were carried out in the window period of 6 months.

RESULTS

Of the 14 responses from the study hospitals that were suitable for analysis, 64.2% reported pediatric patients that vomited after being administered oral medications: 7.1% faced this daily, 35.7% weekly, and 21.4% monthly. When respondents were asked to rate the importance of 8 factors potentially affecting the decision to re-dose, more than half indicated that the patient's vitals and condition (stable, unstable, or critical) were most important (57.4%), followed by time after ingestion (50%), familiarity with medication (42.8%), and formulation of medication (42.8%). Of 43 respondents from other institutions, only 11.9% had a functioning guideline for re-dosing in their institution.

CONCLUSIONS

Health care professional respondents to our surveys listed the time between ingestion and vomiting and the condition of the patient as the most important factors in their decision to re-dose the medication.