Radiation epidemiology and health effects following low-level radiation exposure

Radiation epidemiology is the study of human disease following radiation exposure to populations. Epidemiologic studies of radiation-exposed populations have been conducted for nearly 100 years, starting with the radium dial painters in the 1920s and most recently with large-scale studies of radiation workers. As radiation epidemiology has become increasingly sophisticated it is used for setting radiation protection standards as well as to guide the compensation programmes in place for nuclear weapons workers, nuclear weapons test participants, and other occupationally exposed workers in the United States and elsewhere. It is known with high assurance that radiation effects at levels above 100-150 mGy can be detected as evidenced in multiple population studies conducted around the world. The challenge for radiation epidemiology is evaluating the effects at low doses, below about 100 mGy of low-linear energy transfer radiation, and assessing the risks following low dose-rate exposures over years. The weakness of radiation epidemiology in directly studying low dose and low dose-rate exposures is that the signal, i.e. the excess numbers of cancers associated with low-level radiation exposure, is so very small that it cannot be seen against the very high background occurrence of cancer in the population, i.e. a lifetime risk of incidence reaching up to about 38% (i.e. 1 in 3 persons will develop a cancer in their lifetime). Thus, extrapolation models are used for the management of risk at low doses and low dose rates, but having adequate information from low dose and low dose-rate studies would be highly desirable. An overview of recently conducted radiation epidemiologic studies which evaluate risk following low-level radiation exposures is presented. Future improvements in risk assessment for radiation protection may come from increasingly informative epidemiologic studies, combined with mechanistic radiobiologic understanding of adverse outcome pathways, with both incorporated into biologically based models.

Implications of recent epidemiologic studies for the linear nonthreshold model and radiation protection

The recently published NCRP Commentary No. 27 evaluated the new information from epidemiologic studies as to their degree of support for applying the linear nonthreshold (LNT) model of carcinogenic effects for radiation protection purposes (NCRP 2018 Implications of Recent Epidemiologic Studies for the Linear Nonthreshold Model and Radiation Protection, Commentary No. 27 (Bethesda, MD: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements)). The aim was to determine whether recent epidemiologic studies of low-LET radiation, particularly those at low doses and/or low dose rates (LD/LDR), broadly support the LNT model of carcinogenic risk or, on the contrary, demonstrate sufficient evidence that the LNT model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection. An updated review was needed because a considerable number of reports of radiation epidemiologic studies based on new or updated data have been published since other major reviews were conducted by national and international scientific committees. The Commentary provides a critical review of the LD/LDR studies that are most directly applicable to current occupational, environmental and medical radiation exposure circumstances. This Memorandum summarises several of the more important LD/LDR studies that incorporate radiation dose responses for solid cancer and leukemia that were reviewed in Commentary No. 27. In addition, an overview is provided of radiation studies of breast and thyroid cancers, and cancer after childhood exposures. Non-cancers are briefly touched upon such as ischemic heart disease, cataracts, and heritable genetic effects. To assess the applicability and utility of the LNT model for radiation protection, the Commentary evaluated 29 epidemiologic studies or groups of studies, primarily of total solid cancer, in terms of strengths and weaknesses in their epidemiologic methods, dosimetry approaches, and statistical modelling, and the degree to which they supported a LNT model for continued use in radiation protection. Recommendations for how to make epidemiologic radiation studies more informative are outlined. The NCRP Committee recognises that the risks from LD/LDR exposures are small and uncertain. The Committee judged that the available epidemiologic data were broadly supportive of the LNT model and that at this time no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes.

Dose-rate effects in radiation biology and radiation protection

Quantification of biological effects (cancer, other diseases, and cell damage) associated with exposure to ionising radiation has been a major issue for the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) since its foundation in 1928. While there is a wealth of information on the effects on human health for whole-body doses above approximately 100 mGy, the effects associated with doses below 100 mGy are still being investigated and debated intensively. The current radiological protection approach, proposed by ICRP for workers and the public, is largely based on risks obtained from high-dose and high-dose-rate studies, such as the Japanese Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficients obtained from these studies can be reduced by the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) to account for the assumed lower effectiveness of low-dose and low-dose-rate exposures. The 2007 ICRP Recommendations continue to propose a value of 2 for DDREF, while other international organisations suggest either application of different values or abandonment of the factor. This paper summarises the current status of discussions, and highlights issues that are relevant to reassessing the magnitude and application of DDREF.

A report from the 2013 international symposium: the evaluation of the effects of low-dose radiation exposure in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors and other similar studies

The RERF International Low-Dose Symposium was held on 5-6 December 2013 at the RERF campus in Hiroshima, Japan, to discuss the issues facing the Life Span Study (LSS) and other low-dose studies. Topics included the current status of low-dose risk detection, strategies for low-dose epidemiological and statistical research, methods to improve communication between epidemiologists and biologists, and the current status of radiological studies and tools. Key points made by the participants included the necessity of pooling materials over multiple studies to gain greater insight where data from single studies are insufficient; generating models that reflect epidemiological, statistical, and biological principles simultaneously; understanding confounders and effect modifiers in the current data; and taking into consideration less studied factors such as the impact of dose rate. It is the hope of all participants that this symposium be used as a trigger for further studies, especially those using pooled data, in order to reach a greater understanding of the health effects of low-dose radiation.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Invited commentary: missing doses in the life span study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors

The Life Span Study is a long-term epidemiologic cohort study of survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. In this issue of the Journal, Richardson et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2013;177(6):562-568) suggest that those who died in the earliest years of follow-up were more likely to have a missing dose of radiation exposure assigned, leading to a bias in the radiation risk estimates. We show that nearly all members of the cohort had shielding information recorded before the beginning of follow-up and that much of the alleged bias that Richardson et al. describe simply reflects the geographic distribution of shielding conditions for which reliable dosimetry was impossible.

ICRP publication 118: ICRP statement on tissue reactions and early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs--threshold doses for tissue reactions in a radiation protection context

This report provides a review of early and late effects of radiation in normal tissues and organs with respect to radiation protection. It was instigated following a recommendation in Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007), and it provides updated estimates of 'practical' threshold doses for tissue injury defined at the level of 1% incidence. Estimates are given for morbidity and mortality endpoints in all organ systems following acute, fractionated, or chronic exposure. The organ systems comprise the haematopoietic, immune, reproductive, circulatory, respiratory, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and nervous systems; the digestive and urinary tracts; the skin; and the eye. Particular attention is paid to circulatory disease and cataracts because of recent evidence of higher incidences of injury than expected after lower doses; hence, threshold doses appear to be lower than previously considered. This is largely because of the increasing incidences with increasing times after exposure. In the context of protection, it is the threshold doses for very long follow-up times that are the most relevant for workers and the public; for example, the atomic bomb survivors with 40-50years of follow-up. Radiotherapy data generally apply for shorter follow-up times because of competing causes of death in cancer patients, and hence the risks of radiation-induced circulatory disease at those earlier times are lower. A variety of biological response modifiers have been used to help reduce late reactions in many tissues. These include antioxidants, radical scavengers, inhibitors of apoptosis, anti-inflammatory drugs, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, growth factors, and cytokines. In many cases, these give dose modification factors of 1.1-1.2, and in a few cases 1.5-2, indicating the potential for increasing threshold doses in known exposure cases. In contrast, there are agents that enhance radiation responses, notably other cytotoxic agents such as antimetabolites, alkylating agents, anti-angiogenic drugs, and antibiotics, as well as genetic and comorbidity factors. Most tissues show a sparing effect of dose fractionation, so that total doses for a given endpoint are higher if the dose is fractionated rather than when given as a single dose. However, for reactions manifesting very late after low total doses, particularly for cataracts and circulatory disease, it appears that the rate of dose delivery does not modify the low incidence. This implies that the injury in these cases and at these low dose levels is caused by single-hit irreparable-type events. For these two tissues, a threshold dose of 0.5Gy is proposed herein for practical purposes, irrespective of the rate of dose delivery, and future studies may elucidate this judgement further.

Postmenopausal circulating levels of 2- and 16α-hydroxyestrone and risk of endometrial cancer

Background:

It has been suggested that the relative importance of oestrogen-metabolising pathways may affect the risk of oestrogen-dependent tumours including endometrial cancer. One hypothesis is that the 2-hydroxy pathway is protective, whereas the 16α-hydroxy pathway is harmful.

Methods:

We conducted a case–control study nested within three prospective cohorts to assess whether the circulating 2-hydroxyestrone : 16α-hydroxyestrone (2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1) ratio is inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women. A total of 179 cases and 336 controls, matching cases on cohort, age and date of blood donation, were included. Levels of 2-OHE1 and 16α-OHE1 were measured using a monoclonal antibody-based enzyme assay.

Results:

Endometrial cancer risk increased with increasing levels of both metabolites, with odds ratios in the top tertiles of 2.4 (95% CI=1.3, 4.6; P_trend=0.007) for 2-OHE1 and 1.9 (95% CI=1.1, 3.5; P_trend=0.03) for 16α-OHE1 in analyses adjusting for endometrial cancer risk factors. These associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after further adjustment for oestrone or oestradiol levels. No significant association was observed for the 2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1 ratio.

Conclusion:

Our results do not support the hypothesis that greater metabolism of oestrogen via the 2-OH pathway, relative to the 16α-OH pathway, protects against endometrial cancer.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies

Background:

Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood.

Methods:

Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies.

Results:

Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer.

Conclusion:

Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Prevalence of adult-onset multifactorial disease among offspring of atomic bomb survivors

The first study to examine whether parental radiation exposure leads to increased heritable risk of common adult-onset multifactorial diseases (i.e., hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, ischemic heart disease, and stroke) was conducted among 11,951 participants in the clinical examination program out of a potential of 24,673 mail survey subjects who were offspring of survivors born from May 1946 through December 1984. Logistic regression analyses demonstrated no evidence of an association between the prevalence of multifactorial diseases in the offspring and parental radiation exposure, after adjusting for age, city, gender and various risk factors. The odds ratio (OR) for a paternal dose of 1 Gy was 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-1.01, P = 0.08], and that for a maternal dose of 1 Gy was 0.98 (95% CI 0.86-1.10, P = 0.71). There was no apparent effect of parental age at exposure or of elapsed time between parental exposure and birth, but male offspring had a low odds ratio (OR = 0.76 at 1 Gy) for paternal exposure, but cautious interpretation is needed for this finding. The clinical assessment of nearly 12,000 offspring of A-bomb survivors who have reached a median age of about 50 years provided no evidence for an increased prevalence of adult-onset multifactorial diseases in relation to parental radiation exposure.

Dosimetry for a Study of Low-Dose Radiation Cataracts among Chernobyl Clean-up Workers

A cohort of 8,607 Ukrainian Chernobyl clean-up workers during 1986-1987 was formed to study cataract formation after ionizing radiation exposure. Study eligibility required the availability of sufficient exposure information to permit the reconstruction of doses to the lens of the eye. Eligible groups included civilian workers, such as those who built the "sarcophagus" over the reactor, Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Workers, and military reservists who were conscripted for clean-up work. Many of the official doses for workers were estimates, because only a minority wore radiation badges. For 106 military workers, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements of extracted teeth were compared with the recorded doses as the basis to adjust the recorded gamma-ray doses and provide estimates of uncertainties. Beta-particle doses to the lens were estimated with an algorithm devised to take into account the nature and location of Chernobyl work, time since the accident, and protective measures taken. A Monte Carlo routine generated 500 random estimates for each individual from the uncertainty distributions of the gamma-ray dose and of the ratio of beta-particle to gamma-ray doses. The geometric mean of the 500 combined beta-particle and gamma-ray dose estimates for each individual was used in the data analyses. The median estimated lens dose for the cohort was 123 mGy, while 4.4% received >500 mGy.

Cataracts among Chernobyl Clean-up Workers: Implications Regarding Permissible Eye Exposures

The eyes of a prospective cohort of 8,607 Chernobyl clean-up workers (liquidators) were assessed for cataract at 12 and 14 years after exposure. The prevalence of strictly age-related cataracts was low, as expected (only 3.9% had nuclear cataracts at either examination), since 90% of the cohort was younger than 55 years of age at first examination. However, posterior subcapsular or cortical cataracts characteristic of radiation exposure were present in 25% of the subjects. The data for Stage 1 cataracts, and specifically for posterior subcapsular cataracts, revealed a significant dose response. When various cataract end points were analyzed for dose thresholds, the confidence intervals all excluded values greater than 700 mGy. Linear-quadratic dose-response models yielded mostly linear associations, with weak evidence of upward curvature. The findings do not support the ICRP 60 risk guideline assumption of a 5-Gy threshold for "detectable opacities" from protracted exposures but rather point to a dose-effect threshold of under 1 Gy. Thus, given that cataract is the dose-limiting ocular pathology in current eye risk guidelines, revision of the allowable exposure of the human visual system to ionizing radiation should be considered.

Circulating enterolactone and risk of breast cancer: a prospective study in New York

It has been proposed that phyto-oestrogens protect against breast cancer. Lignans are the main class of phyto-oestrogens in Western diets. We conducted a case-control study of breast cancer and serum levels of the main human lignan, enterolactone, nested within a prospective cohort study, the New York University Women's Health Study. Serum samples collected at enrollment and stored at -80 degrees C were used. Among 14 275 participants, 417 incident breast cancer cases were diagnosed a median of 5.1 years after enrollment. Cohort members individually matched to the cases on age, menopausal status at enrollment, serum storage duration and, if premenopausal, day of menstrual cycle were selected as controls. No difference in serum enterolactone was observed between postmenopausal cases (median, 14.3 nmol l(-1)) and controls (14.5 nmol l(-1)), whereas premenopausal cases had higher levels (13.9 nmol l(-1)) than their matched controls (10.9 nmol l(-1), P-value=0.01). In the latter group, the odds ratio for the highest vs the lowest quintile of enterolactone was 1.7 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.8-3.4; P-value for trend=0.05) and after adjustment for known risk factors for breast cancer was 1.6 (95% CI, 0.7-3.4; P-value for trend=0.13). We observed a moderate positive correlation between serum enterolactone and serum sex hormone-binding globulin in postmenopausal women (r=0.29 in controls (P<0.001) and r=0.14 in cases (P=0.04)), but no correlation with oestrogens or androgens. These results do not support a protective role of circulating lignans, in the range of levels observed, in the development of breast cancer.

Postmenopausal levels of oestrogen, androgen, and SHBG and breast cancer: long-term results of a prospective study

We assessed the association of sex hormone levels with breast cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the cohort of 7054 New York University (NYU) Women's Health Study participants who were postmenopausal at entry. The study includes 297 cases diagnosed between 6 months and 12.7 years after enrollment and 563 controls. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for breast cancer for the highest quintile of each hormone and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) relative to the lowest were as follows: 2.49 (1.47-4.21), P(trend)=0.003 for oestradiol; 3.24 (1.87-5.58), P(trend)<0.001 for oestrone; 2.37 (1.39-4.04), P(trend)=0.002 for testosterone; 2.07 (1.28-3.33), P(trend)<0.001 for androstenedione; 1.74 (1.05-2.89), P(trend)<0.001 for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS); and 0.51 (0.31-0.82), P(trend)<0.001 for SHBG. Analyses limited to the 191 cases who had donated blood five to 12.7 years prior to diagnosis showed results in the same direction as overall analyses, although the tests for trend did not reach statistical significance for DHEAS and SHBG. The rates of change per year in hormone and SHBG levels, calculated for 95 cases and their matched controls who had given a second blood donation within 5 years of diagnosis, were of small magnitude and overall not different in cases and controls. The association of androgens with risk did not persist after adjustment for oestrone (1.08, 95% CI=0.92-1.26 for testosterone; 1.15, 95% CI=0.95-1.39 for androstenedione and 1.06, 95% CI=0.90-1.26 for DHEAS), the oestrogen most strongly associated with risk in our study. Our results support the hypothesis that the associations of circulating oestrogens with breast cancer risk are more likely due to an effect of circulating hormones on the development of cancer than to elevations induced by the tumour. They also suggest that the contribution of androgens to risk is largely through their role as substrates for oestrogen production.

Body mass index, circulating levels of sex-steroid hormones, IGF-I and IGF-binding protein-3: a cross-sectional study in healthy women

OBJECTIVE

Excess weight has been associated with increased risk of cancer at several organ sites. In part, this effect may be modulated through alterations in the metabolism of sex steroids and IGF-I related peptides. The objectives of the study were to examine the association of body mass index (BMI) with circulating androgens (testosterone, androstenedione and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS)), estrogens (estrone and estradiol), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), IGF-I and IGF-binding protein (IGFBP)-3, and the relationship between sex steroids, IGF-I and IGFBP-3.

DESIGN AND METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis was performed using hormonal and questionnaire data of 620 healthy women (177 pre- and 443 post-menopausal). The laboratory measurements of the hormones of interest were available from two previous case-control studies on endogenous hormones and cancer risk.

RESULTS

In the pre-menopausal group, BMI was not related to androgens and IGF-I. In the post-menopausal group, estrogens, testosterone and androstenedione increased with increasing BMI. The association with IGF-I was non-linear, with the highest mean concentrations observed in women with BMI between 24 and 25. In both pre- and post-menopausal subjects, IGFBP-3 did not vary across BMI categories and SHBG decreased with increasing BMI. As for the correlations between peptide and steroid hormones, in the post-menopausal group, IGF-I was positively related to androgens, inversely correlated with SHBG, and not correlated with estrogens. In the pre-menopausal group, similar but weaker correlations between IGF-I and androgens were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

These observations offer evidence that obesity may influence the levels of endogenous sex-steroid and IGF-related hormones in the circulation, especially after menopause. Circulating IGF-I, androgens and SHBG appear to be related to each other in post-menopausal women.

Body mass index, serum sex hormones, and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with increased breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women. We examined whether this association could be explained by the relationship of body mass index (BMI) with serum sex hormone concentrations.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data from eight prospective studies of postmenopausal women. Data on BMI and prediagnostic estradiol levels were available for 624 case subjects and 1669 control subjects; data on the other sex hormones were available for fewer subjects. The relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer associated with increasing BMI were estimated by conditional logistic regression on case-control sets, matched within each study for age and recruitment date, and adjusted for parity. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Breast cancer risk increased with increasing BMI (P(trend) =.002), and this increase in RR was substantially reduced by adjustment for serum estrogen concentrations. Adjusting for free estradiol reduced the RR for breast cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI from 1.19 (95% CI = 1.05 to 1.34) to 1.02 (95% CI = 0.89 to 1.17). The increased risk was also substantially reduced after adjusting for other estrogens (total estradiol, non-sex hormone-binding globulin-bound estradiol, estrone, and estrone sulfate), and moderately reduced after adjusting for sex hormone-binding globulin, whereas adjustment for the androgens (androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and testosterone) had little effect on the excess risk.

CONCLUSION

The results are compatible with the hypothesis that the increase in breast cancer risk with increasing BMI among postmenopausal women is largely the result of the associated increase in estrogens, particularly bioavailable estradiol.

Aspirin and lung cancer in women

The association between aspirin use and lung cancer risk in women was examined in a case-control study nested in the New York University Women's Health Study, a large cohort in New York. Case subjects were all the 81 incident lung cancer cases who had provided information about aspirin use at enrollment and during the 1994-1996 follow up. Ten controls per case were randomly selected from among study participants who matched a case by age, menopausal status, and dates of enrollment and follow-up. Relative to no aspirin use, the odds ratio for lung cancer (all histological sub-types combined) among subjects who reported aspirin use three or more times per week for at least 6 months was 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.34-1.28), after adjustment for smoking and education. A stronger inverse association was observed in analyses restricted to non-small cell lung cancer (adjusted odds ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.96). These results suggest that regular aspirin use might be inversely associated with risk of lung cancer in women, particularly the non-small cell sub-type.

Handheld cellular telephones and risk of acoustic neuroma

The hypothesis that intracranial energy deposition from handheld cellular telephones causes acoustic neuroma was tested in an epidemiologic study of 90 patients and 86 control subjects. The relative risk was 0.9 (p = 0.07) and did not vary significantly by the frequency, duration, and lifetime hours of use. In patients who used cellular telephones, the tumor occurred more often on the contralateral than ipsilateral side of the head. Further efforts should focus on potentially longer induction periods.

Aspirin and epithelial ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence suggests that chronic inflammation may influence ovarian carcinogenesis. The study objective was to examine the association between the commonly used anti-inflammatory drug aspirin and epithelial ovarian cancer.

METHODS

The authors conducted a case-control study based in the New York University Women's Health Study cohort enrolled between 1985 and 1991 in New York City. After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 68 incident cases of epithelial ovarian cancer were identified. Data about regular aspirin use were collected during the 1994-1996 follow-up questionnaire. Using a case-control study design, 10 controls per case were randomly selected among study participants who matched the case by age and menopausal status. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to study the relationships between aspirin and epithelial ovarian cancer by generating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Relative to no aspirin use, the OR for epithelial ovarian cancer among women who reported aspirin use three or more times per week for a period of at least 6 months was 0.60 (95% CI 0.26, 1.38), after adjustment for age at menarche, parity, oral contraceptive use, and first-degree family history of breast cancer before age 50. Among recent, within the previous 5 years, users of aspirin, the adjusted OR was 0.36 (95% CI 0.11, 1.18).

CONCLUSION

Although confidence intervals included unity, the observed risk estimates seem to be compatible with previous studies suggesting that regular aspirin use could be inversely associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Reliability and validity of commercially available, direct radioimmunoassays for measurement of blood androgens and estrogens in postmenopausal women

In large-scale epidemiological studies on endogenous sex steroids and cancer risk, direct immunoassays of circulating hormone levels have the advantage of being fast and comparatively inexpensive while requiring only small sample volumes. On the other hand, indirect assays after organic extraction and chromatographic prepurification have the advantage of reducing specific interferences and matrix effects and hence are thought to have better validity. We compared direct assays of testosterone (T, six different assays), Delta4-androstenedione (A, four assays), estrone (E(1), one assay), and 17beta-estradiol (E(2), five assays) with measurements obtained by an indirect assay in a representative subset of 20 postmenopausal women who were part of a large prospective cohort study. Within-batch reproducibilities of the subject rankings by relative hormone levels were good (intraclass correlations >0.89) for all direct assays tested. Between batches, reproducibilities generally were also acceptable (r > 0.80) to good (r > 0.90) in terms of Pearson's correlations. The between-batch reproducibility in terms of intraclass correlations was systematically lower in terms of Pearson's correlations, however, because of between-batch variations in the absolute scale of measurements. The relative validity of direct versus indirect assays in terms of the subjects' ranking by relative hormone levels was also high for most of the kits tested for T, A, and E(1) (Pearson's correlations between 0.70 and 0.89) but was high for only two kits of five tested for E(2) (correlations of 0.86 and 0.84). On an absolute scale, mean measurement values were generally higher for direct assays than for the indirect assay and, for each hormone, varied substantially, depending on the kit used. Overall, the results of this study show that, with careful selection, commercial kits for direct radioimmunoassays of steroid hormones in postmenopausal serum can be found that may allow a reliable estimation of relative risks in epidemiological studies. However, standardization of the absolute scale of assays remains problematic.

Serum carotenoids and breast cancer

The consumption of vegetables and fruit may protect against many types of cancer, but research evidence is not compelling for breast cancer. Carotenoids are pigments that are present in most plants and have known antioxidant properties. Blood concentrations of carotenoids have been proposed as integrated biochemical markers of vegetable, fruit, and synthetic supplements consumed. In a case-control study (270 cases, 270 controls) nested within a cohort in New York during 1985-1994, the carotenoids lutein, zeaxanthin, beta-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, alpha-carotene, and beta-carotene were measured in archived serum samples using liquid chromatography. There was an evident increase in the risk of breast cancer for decreasing beta-carotene, lutein, alpha-carotene, and beta-cryptoxanthin. The risk of breast cancer approximately doubled among subjects with blood levels of beta-carotene at the lowest quartile, as compared with those at the highest quartile (odds ratio = 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 3.79). The risk associated with the other carotenoids was similar, varying between 2.08 (95% CI: 1.11, 3.90) for lutein and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.99, 2.86) for beta-cryptoxanthin. The odds ratio for the lower quartile of total carotenoids was 2.31 (95% CI: 1.35, 3.96). These observations offer evidence that a low intake of carotenoids, through poor diet and/or lack of vitamin supplementation, may be associated with increased risk of breast cancer and may have public health relevance for people with markedly low intakes.

Radiation-induced skin cancer in humans

The principal epidemiologic studies of ionizing radiation and skin cancer have all shown that radiation causes basal cell carcinoma but have not found dose-related excesses of squamous cell carcinoma or malignant melanoma. The Japanese atomic bomb study indicates that doses of radiation under about 1 Gy confer less risk per unit dose than higher doses do. All available studies show that skin cancer risk is greater from radiation exposure at young ages than at older ages. Finding few excess skin cancers among irradiated African-Americans as compared to Caucasians with a comparable dose indicates that skin susceptibility to ultraviolet exposure modifies the excess risk from ionizing radiation. Available evidence indicates that the excess risk of skin cancer lasts for 45 years or more following irradiation. Several studies indicate a risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) following cancer therapy; however, most of the studies reporting on NMSC have not distinguished between patients who received radiotherapy versus chemotherapy. Some, but not all, follow-up studies of cancer patients have reported excesses of malignant melanoma as second malignant neoplasms. It is not clear from the studies how much, if any, of the excess melanoma risk is attributable to radiotherapy.

Assessing excess lifetime risk for disease after radiation exposure

In this paper, we define the excess lifetime risk for a disease due to radiation exposure, and we evaluate the excess lifetime risk for an exposed group with the same age and with a mixture of ages. We propose two methods to estimate the excess lifetime risk: the standard maximum likelihood approach and a Monte-Carlo approach. Both approaches allow us to construct confidence intervals for the excess lifetime risk and perform hypothesis testing to compare two excess risks. The maximum likelihood approach is straightforward and computationally simple; however, it may not provide good approximations when the normality assumption is violated. The Monte-Carlo approach is always reliable, but often involves heavier computations and additional programming. These two approaches are illustrated and discussed based on a pooled analysis of five cohorts exposed to external radiation and followed up for subsequent thyroid cancer incidence.

Postmenopausal endogenous oestrogens and risk of endometrial cancer: results of a prospective study

We assessed the association of postmenopausal serum levels of oestrogens and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with endometrial cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the NYU Women's Health Study cohort. Among 7054 women postmenopausal at enrolment, 57 cases of endometrial cancer were diagnosed a median of 5.5 years after blood donation. Each case was compared to 4 controls matched on age, menopausal status at enrolment, and serum storage duration. Endometrial cancer risk increased with higher levels of oestradiol (odds ratio = 2.4 in highest vs lowest tertile, P for trend = 0.02), percent free oestradiol (OR = 3.5, P< 0.001), and oestrone (OR = 3.9, P< 0.001). Risk decreased with higher levels of percent SHBG-bound oestradiol (OR = 0.43, P = 0.03) and SHBG (OR = 0.39, P = 0.01). Trends remained in the same directions after adjusting for height and body mass index. A positive association of body mass index with risk was substantially reduced after adjusting for oestrone level. Our results indicate that risk of endometrial cancer increases with increasing postmenopausal oestrogen levels but do not provide strong support for a role of body mass index independent of its effect on oestrogen levels.

A prospective study of insulin-like growth factor-I, IGF-binding proteins-1, -2 and -3 and lung cancer risk in women

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) has mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties and has been implicated in the development of breast, colorectum, prostate and lung cancer. IGF binding proteins (IGFBPs) are not only carrier proteins for IGFs but also hold a central position in IGF ligand-receptor interactions through influences on the bioavailability and distribution of IGFs in the extracellular environment. A case-control study nested within the New York University Women's Health Study Cohort included 93 women diagnosed with lung cancer at least 6 months after recruitment into the study. Two controls (n = 186) were matched to each case on age, date of blood sampling, menopausal status, day of menstrual cycle and questionnaire data of smoking status at the time of blood donation. Serum IGF-I, IGFBP-1, -2 and -3, insulin and cotinine were measured. Mean serum levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-1, -2 and -3 were not significantly different between the case and control groups. Univariate logistic regression analyses showed no association of lung cancer risk with serum levels of IGF-I or any of the IGFBPs. These results remained virtually the same in multivariate analyses, including adjustment for cotinine, time since last meal, BMI, IGF-I or IGFBP-3, respectively. Exclusion of cases diagnosed within 3 years of recruitment in the cohort, or restriction of the analyses to adenocarcinomas only, did not alter these results. Our study does not offer evidence in support of an association between prediagnostic serum levels of IGF-I or IGFBP-1, -2 and -3 and lung cancer risk in women.

Handheld cellular telephone use and risk of brain cancer

CONTEXT

A relative paucity of data exist on the possible health effects of using cellular telephones.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that using handheld cellular telephones is related to the risk of primary brain cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Case-control study conducted in 5 US academic medical centers between 1994 and 1998 using a structured questionnaire.

PATIENTS

A total of 469 men and women aged 18 to 80 years with primary brain cancer and 422 matched controls without brain cancer.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Risk of brain cancer compared by use of handheld cellular telephones, in hours per month and years of use.

RESULTS

The median monthly hours of use were 2.5 for cases and 2.2 for controls. Compared with patients who never used handheld cellular telephones, the multivariate odds ratio (OR) associated with regular past or current use was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6-1.2). The OR for infrequent users (<0. 72 h/mo) was 1.0 (95% CI, 0.5-2.0) and for frequent users (>10.1 h/mo) was 0.7 (95% CI, 0.3-1.4). The mean duration of use was 2.8 years for cases and 2.7 years for controls; no association with brain cancer was observed according to duration of use (P =.54). In cases, cerebral tumors occurred more frequently on the same side of the head where cellular telephones had been used (26 vs 15 cases; P =.06), but in the cases with temporal lobe cancer a greater proportion of tumors occurred in the contralateral than ipsilateral side (9 vs 5 cases; P =.33). The OR was less than 1.0 for all histologic categories of brain cancer except for uncommon neuroepitheliomatous cancers (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 0.9-4.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that use of handheld cellular telephones is not associated with risk of brain cancer, but further studies are needed to account for longer induction periods, especially for slow-growing tumors with neuronal features.

Serum insulin-like growth factor-I and breast cancer

Insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) is a systemic hormone with potent mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties, which could influence the proliferative behavior of normal breast cells. Limited epidemiological observations suggest that the hormone may play a role in the etiology of breast cancer, especially at pre-menopausal ages. In a prospective case-control study nested within a cohort of New York City women, IGF-I, IGF-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) and C peptide were measured in frozen serum samples from 172 pre-menopausal and 115 post-menopausal subjects who were subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer. Subjects were eligible if diagnosed 6 months or more after recruitment into the study (7 to 120 months). Cohort members who matched the cases on age, menopausal status, date of blood sampling and day of menstrual cycle at blood collection served as controls. Post-menopausal breast cancer was not associated with serum IGF-I, IGFBP-3 or C-peptide levels. However, the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing serum concentrations of IGF-I in pre-menopausal women. The odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile of IGF-I (>256 ng/ml) compared to the lowest (<168 ng/ml) was 1.60 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-2. 81]. The OR decreased to 1.49 (95% CI 0.80-2.79) after adjustment for IGFBP-3. In analyses restricted to subjects who were pre-menopausal at the time of blood sampling and whose cancer was diagnosed before age 50, the top vs. bottom quartile OR increased appreciably to 2.30 (95% CI 1.07-4.94). Adjustment for IGFBP-3 reduced the OR to 1.90 (95% CI 0.82-4.42). There was no association between pre-menopausal breast cancer and IGFBP-3, IGF-I:IGFBP-3 ratio or non-fasting levels of C peptide. Elevated circulating levels of IGF-I may be an indicator of increased risk of breast cancer occurring before age 50.

Serum C-peptide, insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, IGF-binding proteins, and colorectal cancer risk in women

BACKGROUND

Leading a Western lifestyle, being overweight, and being sedentary are associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Recent theories propose that the effects of these risk factors may be mediated by increases in circulating insulin levels and in the bioactivity of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 14 275 women in New York.

METHODS

We used blood samples that had been obtained from these women from March 1985 through June 1991 and stored in a biorepository. C-peptide (a marker for insulin secretion), IGF-I, and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs)-1, -2, and -3 were assayed in the serum of 102 women who subsequently developed colorectal cancer and 200 matched control subjects. Logistic regression was used to relate cancer risk to these peptide levels, by adjustment for other risk factors. All statistical tests used are two-sided.

RESULTS

Colorectal cancer risk increased with increasing levels of C-peptide (P:(trend) =.001), up to an odds ratio (OR) of 2. 92 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26-6.75) for the highest versus the lowest quintiles, after adjustment for smoking. For colon cancer alone (75 case subjects and 146 control subjects), ORs increased up to 3.96 (95% CI = 1.49-10.50; P:(trend) <.001) for the highest versus the lowest quintiles. A statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer risk was observed for increasing levels of IGFBP-1 (P:(trend) =.02; OR in the upper quintile = 0.48 [95% CI = 0.23-1. 00]), as well as for the highest quintile of IGFBP-2 levels (P:(trend) =.06; OR = 0.38 [95% CI = 0.15-0.94]). Colorectal cancer risk showed a modest but statistically nonsignificant positive association with levels of IGF-I and was statistically significantly increased for the highest quintile of IGFBP-3 (OR = 2.46 [95% CI = 1. 09-5.57]).

CONCLUSIONS

Chronically high levels of circulating insulin and IGFs associated with a Western lifestyle may increase colorectal cancer risk, possibly by decreasing IGFBP-1 and increasing the bioactivity of IGF-I.

Drug injection rates and needle-exchange use in New York City, 1991-1996

Objectives included (1) to develop methods for identifying injection drug users with accelerating injection habits so they might be referred to counseling and treatment and (2) to investigate behavioral correlates of accelerating injection habits, including syringe-exchange program utilization. Data on drug use, enrollment in methadone maintenance, and demographic variables were obtained from 328 subjects who were seronegative for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who attended anywhere from 4 to 11 quarterly study visits for interview, HIV pretest counseling and risk reduction counseling, and blood donation for HIV antibody testing. Subjects were recalled 2 weeks after each study visit to receive their results and post-test counseling. We characterized subjects according to their patterns of drug injection as accelerating, decelerating, or stable, using intraindividual regression analyses and categorization rules, and by syringe-exchange use as consistent users, sporadic users, or nonusers. The present subjects included 52% with decelerating, 29% with stable, and 19% with accelerating rates of drug injection. There were 128 subjects (39%) who were categorized as consistent users of syringe-exchange programs, 84 (25%) were categorized as sporadic users, and 116 (35%) were categorized as nonusers. All syringe-exchange groups showed significantly decelerating drug injection. Rates of decline were significantly less, however, among consistent syringe-exchange users than sporadic or nonusers of syringe exchanges. Categorical analysis also showed significant differences among groups, with 30% of consistent syringe-exchange program users having accelerating rates of drug injection compared to 9% of nonusers and 17% of sporadic users. That consistent syringe-exchange users included a larger proportion of individuals whose drug habits were accelerating than did sporadic users or nonusers of syringe exchanges suggests a need for improved identification and counseling of such subjects by syringe-exchange program staff. The present statistical approaches may be of value in targeting such efforts. The ability of a syringe-exchange program to attract a disproportionate share of drug users with accelerating rates of drug injection underscores the importance of these programs to HIV prevention efforts.

Psychotropic medication use and risk of hormone-related cancers: the New York University Women's Health Study

BACKGROUND

The use of psychotropic medications may increase the risk of hormone-related cancers in females through increased gonadotropin secretion, but the data from epidemiologic studies are limited to evaluate the hypothesis.

METHODS

The association between the use of psychotropic medications and cancer incidence was studied in a prospective cohort study that involves 15,270 women who participated in mammographic screening. The relative risks (RR) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer associated with the use of psychotropic medications were estimated by the Cox's proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

During an average of 7.3 years of follow-up, 1,130 incident cases of cancer were identified, including 566 breast, 67 endometrial and 47 ovarian cancers. The use of any type of psychotropic medication at baseline was associated with increased risks of breast [relative risk (RR) = 1.39, 95 per cent CI 1.11-1.74], endometrial (RR=1.71; 95 per cent CI 0.93-3.14) and ovarian (RR= 1.48, 95 per cent CI 0.69-3.16) cancers, whereas no increase in risk was observed for other cancers (RR = 1.06). When the subjects were divided by menopausal status at baseline, premenopausal women tended to have higher risk of all hormone-related cancers (RR = 1.73, 95 per cent CI 1.27-2.35) than postmenopausal women (RR=1.23, 95 per cent CI 0.94-1.62). The magnitude of the RR associated with the use of these medications did not change by length of follow-up. Analysis by type of medication did not find that the association was limited to specific types.

CONCLUSION

The observed association needs to be confirmed in further studies based on more detailed medication history.

Risk of iron overload among middle-aged women

Iron overload, expressed as increased body iron stores, has been recognized as a potential hazard because it promotes the generation of oxygen radicals. We analyzed factors associated with serum ferritin levels (an indicator of body iron stores) among middle-aged women with a high prevalence of nutrient supplement use. Serum ferritin concentrations were determined on automated immunoassay for 487 healthy women with the mean age of 57 years who participated in the New York University Women's Health Study. The mean serum ferritin concentration in postmenopausal women was more than twice that in premenopausal women. Serum ferritin concentrations progressively increased with advancing age, but adjustment for menopausal status considerably weakened this association. Among non-dietary factors, nonwhite ethnicity, obesity and cigarette smoking were positively associated with serum ferritin concentrations. After adjustment for these factors and for menopausal status, serum ferritin levels were positively associated with meat intake and multivitamin use and inversely associated with breakfast cereal consumption. However, none of these lifestyle factors positively associated with serum ferritin levels had a significant impact on serum ferritin levels above 100 ng/ml (approximately equal to median concentration). Our results suggest that iron overload seems unlikely among middle aged women through their diet and nutritional supplements.

Diet, smoking and anthropometric indices and postmenopausal bone fractures: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

Bone fractures are an important cause of morbidity and mortality among the elderly in the US. The present study assesses the possible role of a number of risk factors for postmenopausal bone fractures.

METHODS

We analysed the relationships of anthropometric, demographic and lifestyle factors with the risk of bone fracture among 6250 postmenopausal women in a prospective cohort study, the New York University Women's Health Study.

RESULTS

After an average of 7.6 years of follow-up, 1025 new incident bone fractures were reported, including 34 hip and 159 wrist fractures (incidence rates; 71.6 and 334.7 per 105 woman-years, respectively). The risk of fracture increased with increasing age, body height and total fat intake, while it was significantly lower among obese and African American women. The relative risk among African Americans was 0.45 (95% CI: 0.32-0.63) compared with non-African Americans. Women taller than 170 cm had a 64% increase in risk of fractures, as compared with those under 155 cm. These associations were generally more pronounced when fractures were limited to those at the hip and wrist.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study provides an indication for a potential role of dietary fat in the development of postmenopausal fractures and further evidence to support protective effects of obesity, short stature and African American ethnicity.

Body fat distribution and obesity in pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Excessive body weight is known to increase the risk of postmenopausal, but not premenopausal breast cancer. Some studies have suggested that being overweight is protective against premenopausal breast cancer, but the evidence is not compelling. Much less is known about the role of body fat distribution in either pre- or postmenopausal breast cancer.

METHODS

Breast cancer risk was examined in relation to body weight, height, Quetelet index (kg/m2), and waist/hip ratio (WHR) in the New York University Women's Health Study, a prospective cohort study. Cases were 109 premenopausal and 150 postmenopausal women diagnosed with breast cancer between 1985 and 1994. Non-cases were 8,157 cohort members free of breast cancer.

RESULTS

Among premenopausal women, there was an increasing risk of breast cancer with increasing WHR. The relative risk (RR) of breast cancer increased to 1.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-3.1) in the upper quartile of WHR. The association was limited to subjects who had elevated Quetelet index, but not among those with lower weight. Overall, Quetelet index itself was not related to breast cancer risk in the premenopausal group, but there was a protective association among those ranking below the median WHR. In postmenopausal women, the RR for breast cancer increased to 2.36 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9) in the upper quartile of Quetelet index, but there was no association with WHR. Height was not associated with breast cancer in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

The study confirms that excessive body weight increases breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women. On the contrary, in premenopausal women, excessive body weight may be protective among women who have a lower-body type of fat accumulation (low WHR). An upper-body fat accumulation (high WHR) is a predictor of breast cancer risk in premenopausal women, and this effect is especially pronounced among subjects who are overweight.

Equivalence trials in SLE research: issues to consider

In contrast to the objective of most clinical trials, which is to demonstrate superiority of an experimental treatment over a standard or placebo, the aim of an equivalence trial is to show that two treatments are equivalent in outcome or only marginally different. This would be of interest when an experimental treatment offers advantages such as reduced toxicity, ease of administration, or cost relative to the standard. Demonstrating equivalence may also be a goal when evaluating the safety of certain drugs because similarity in the risks of an adverse event in subjects exposed and unexposed to the drug is an indication of its safety. The classical formulation of the null hypothesis of treatment equality that is used in superiority trials is not applicable to equivalence trials because absolute equivalence between treatment groups cannot be proven. The strategy in equivalence trials is to define a maximum difference between treatment groups that is clinically acceptable and then assess whether there is sufficient evidence from the trial to conclude that the true treatment difference is within this acceptable range. In this paper, we discuss issues surrounding the planning, conduct, and analysis of equivalence trials in the context of SLE, with examples from the SELENA study.

Epidemiologic correlates with menstrual cycle length in middle aged women

While irregular menstruations have been associated with lower cumulative exposure to the ovarian steroids, shorter regular cycles have been postulated to increase the cumulative exposure. Epidemiological correlates with menstrual patterns were analyzed among 4900 premenopausal women aged 45 or younger from the New York University Women's Health Study. The length of regular menstrual cycles increased with increasing age at menarche, body mass index and parity, but decreased with age, nonwhite racial background and current smoking. The likelihood of irregular cycles increased with increasing age, body mass index and number of cigarettes smoked per day. With adjustment for age, body mass index and number of cigarettes smoked per day, the risk of irregular cycles was marginally positively associated with total fat intake.

Epidemiologic correlates of serum folate and homocysteine levels among users and non-users of vitamin supplement

Lower serum folate and higher serum homocysteine levels are known risk factors for various conditions. Thus, epidemiologic correlates with these measurements were studied for 256 multivitamin users and 230 non-users who were middle-aged women. Both serum folate and homocysteine levels increased with advancing age in both multivitamin users (P < 0.01 and P < 0.01) and non-users (P = 0.08 and P < 0.01). Among non-users, higher intake of vegetables, fruits, cold cereals and total protein were associated positively with serum folate and inversely with homocysteine levels. There were 25-74% increases in serum folate and 10-15% decreases in serum homocysteine between 1st and 4th quartiles of intake of these food/nutrients. In addition, 26% lower serum folate and 18% higher serum homocysteine were observed for those smoking 20 or more cigarettes per day compared with non-smokers. Among multivitamin users, body weight was correlated inversely with serum folate (P < 0.01) and positively with serum homocysteine levels (P = 0.04), while no correlates were found among lifestyle factors. Regular use of multivitamins increased serum folate about fourfold and decreased homocysteine twofold. These results suggest that multivitamin use can offset the effects of an unhealthy lifestyle on these serum markers, and that levels of serum folate and homocysteine can also be favorably influenced by healthier diet and abstinence from smoking.

Serum folate, homocysteine and colorectal cancer risk in women: a nested case-control study

Accumulating evidence suggests that folate, which is plentiful in vegetables and fruits, may be protective against colorectal cancer. The authors have studied the relationship of baseline levels of serum folate and homocysteine to the subsequent risk of colorectal cancer in a nested case-control study including 105 cases and 523 matched controls from the New York University Women's Health Study cohort. In univariate analyses, the cases had lower serum folate and higher serum homocysteine levels than controls. The difference was more significant for folate (P < 0.001) than for homocysteine (P = 0.04). After adjusting for potential confounders, the risk of colorectal cancer in the subjects in the highest quartile of serum folate was half that of those in the lowest quartile (odds ratio, OR = 0.52, 95% confidence interval, CI = 0.27-0.97, P-value for trend = 0.04). The OR for the highest quartile of homocysteine, relative to the lowest quartile, was 1.72 (95% CI = 0.83-3.65, P-value for trend = 0.09). In addition, the risk of colorectal cancer was almost twice as high in subjects with below-median serum folate and above-median total alcohol intake compared with those with above-median serum folate and below-median alcohol consumption (OR = 1.99, 95% CI = 0.92-4.29). The potentially protective effects of folate need to be confirmed in clinical trials.

Iron intake, body iron stores and colorectal cancer risk in women: a nested case-control study

Accumulated evidence suggests that increased body iron stores may increase the risk of colorectal cancer, possibly via catalyzing oxidation reactions. We examined the relationship between iron status and colorectal cancer in a case-control study nested within the New York University Women's Health Study cohort. For 105 incident cases of colorectal cancer with an average follow-up of 4.7 years and 523 individually matched controls, baseline levels of serum iron, ferritin, total iron binding capacity (TIBC) and transferrin saturation were determined as indicators of body iron stores, and total iron intake was assessed based on their diet and supplement intake. Overall, there were no associations between the risk of colorectal cancer and any of these indices except for serum ferritin, which showed a significant inverse association. When analyzed by subsite, there was an increasing trend in risk of cancer of the proximal colon with increasing total iron intake (p-value for trend = 0.04). In addition, a significantly increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with higher total iron intake [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-5.87] was observed among subjects with higher intake of total fat. Our results do not support a role of increased body iron stores in the development of colorectal cancer, but suggest that luminal exposure to excessive iron may possibly increase the risk in combination with a high fat diet.

Iron intake, body iron stores and colorectal cancer risk in women: a nested case-control study

Accumulated evidence suggests that increased body iron stores may increase the risk of colorectal cancer, possibly via catalyzing oxidation reactions. We examined the relationship between iron status and colorectal cancer in a case-control study nested within the New York University Women's Health Study cohort. For 105 incident cases of colorectal cancer with an average follow-up of 4.7 years and 523 individually matched controls, baseline levels of serum iron, ferritin, total iron binding capacity (TIBC) and transferrin saturation were determined as indicators of body iron stores, and total iron intake was assessed based on their diet and supplement intake. Overall, there were no associations between the risk of colorectal cancer and any of these indices except for serum ferritin, which showed a significant inverse association. When analyzed by subsite, there was an increasing trend in risk of cancer of the proximal colon with increasing total iron intake (p-value for trend = 0.04). In addition, a significantly increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with higher total iron intake [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-5.87] was observed among subjects with higher intake of total fat. Our results do not support a role of increased body iron stores in the development of colorectal cancer, but suggest that luminal exposure to excessive iron may possibly increase the risk in combination with a high fat diet.

Prospective study of diet and female colorectal cancer: the New York University Women's Health Study

The relation between diet and female colorectal cancer was analyzed in a prospective study of 14,727 women aged 34-65 years, who were enrolled at mammographic screening clinics in New York and Florida from 1985 to 1991. They were followed through the end of 1994 (average 7.1 yrs) by a combination of direct contact through mail and telephone and record linkages with regional tumor registries, resulting in 100 incident cases of colorectal cancer. There was no overall positive or inverse association of colorectal cancer risk with intakes of total calories, total or subclasses of fat, carbohydrate, or dietary fiber, whereas there was an inverse association with total protein. Among major food groups, there was a progressive decline in risk of colorectal cancer with increasing intake of fish and shellfish (relative risk for 4th vs. 1st quartile = 0.49, 95% confidence interval = 0.27-0.89). A similar inverse association was also observed for consumption of dairy products, and this association was explained mainly by calcium, not by other nutrients, such as fat or protein. The results of the present study indicated that certain dietary components of fish or dairy products may protect against colorectal cancer, whereas the relations with red meat or total fat remained unclear.

Reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire used in the New York University Women's Health Study: effect of self-selection by study subjects

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to investigate the reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) used in a cohort of 14,290 women enrolled in the NYU Women's Health Study.

DESIGN

A subset of 474 cohort subjects who completed the dietary questionnaire at baseline (FFQ-1) were approached again on the occasion of a second visit to the mammography study centre and asked to complete the questionnaire a second time (FFQ-2) two to four years after FFQ-1. Two to three months later the questionnaire was mailed to the subjects, and they were asked to complete it a third time (FFQ-3).

SETTING

A breast cancer screening clinic.

SUBJECTS

Of the 474 subjects selected, 100% completed the second questionnaire while only 56% completed and mailed back FFQ-3. This made it possible to compare the long-term reproducibility of dietary intake measurements and baseline dietary habits between the two groups of subjects 'respondents', who agreed to complete the questionnaire a third time, and 'non-respondents', who did not.

RESULTS

Among respondents (56% of study subjects), energy-adjusted correlation coefficients for short-term reproducibility between FFQ-2 and FFQ-3 ranged from 0.50-0.64 for nutrients, and from 0.44-0.67 for foods. The long-term reproducibility was lower, ranging from 0.36-0.53 for nutrients, and from 0.31-0.48 for specific food groups. Among those who did not respond to FFQ-3, crude correlations for long-term reproducibility, unadjusted for energy intake, were generally lower than among respondents. Nevertheless, after adjustment for energy intake, correlations for long-term reproducibility (FFQ-2 to FFQ-1) were of similar magnitude in both groups. In addition, 'non-respondents' reported lower intake of fruit and vegetables and higher intake of meat.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that subjects who volunteer to participate in substudies on the validity or reproducibility of dietary questionnaire measurements may tend to provide more accurate responses to the questionnaire. The phenomenon seems related more to accuracy of reporting of absolute intake levels than of the relative composition of diet, self-selection may be associated with differences in dietary habits.

Relation of serum levels of testosterone and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate to risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women

The authors examined the relation between postmenopausal serum levels of testosterone and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) and subsequent risk of breast cancer in a case-control study nested within the New York University Women's Health Study cohort. A specific objective of their analysis was to examine whether androgens had an effect on breast cancer risk independent of their effect on the biologic availability of estrogen. A total of 130 cases of breast cancer were diagnosed prior to 1991 in a cohort of 7,054 postmenopausal women who had donated blood and completed questionnaires at a breast cancer screening clinic in New York City between 1985 and 1991. For each case, two controls were selected, matching the case on age at blood donation and length of storage of serum specimens. Biochemical analyses were performed on sera that had been stored at -80 degrees C since sampling. The present report includes a subset of 85 matched sets, for whom at least 6 months had elapsed between blood donation and diagnosis of the case. In univariate analysis, testosterone was positively associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-6.8, p < 0.05, test for trend). However, after including % estradiol bound to sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and total estradiol in the statistical model, the odds ratios associated with higher levels of testosterone were considerably reduced, and there was no longer a significant trend (OR for the highest quartile = 1.2, 95% CI 0.4-3.5). Conversely, breast cancer risk remained positively associated with total estradiol levels (OR for the highest quartile = 2.9, 95% CI 1.0-8.3) and negatively associated with % estradiol bound to SHBG (OR for the highest quartile = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.19) after adjustment for serum testosterone levels. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that testosterone has an indirect effect on breast cancer risk, via its influence on the amount of bioavailable estrogen. No evidence was found of an association between DHEAS and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women.

Epidemiologic issues related to nasopharyngeal radium exposures

A number of topics are discussed related to the potential for and pitfalls in undertaking epidemiologic studies of the late effects of nasopharyngeal radium irradiation. The available evidence indicates that linear extrapolation of risk estimates from high-dose studies is a reasonable basis for estimating risk from radium exposure or other situations in which the radiation exposures were fairly low and fractionated. Epidemiologic study of populations given nasopharyngeal radium irradiation is worthwhile scientifically if several criteria can be met. It is very important that any such study has adequate statistical power, which is a function of the doses to the organs of interest and the radiation risk coefficients for those organs, as well as the available sample size. If the organ doses are low, a prohibitively large sample size would be required. Other problems with low-dose studies include the likelihood of false-positive results when a number of health end points are evaluated and the impact of dose uncertainties, small biases, and confounding factors that make the interpretation uncertain. Cluster studies or studies of self-selected cohorts of irradiated patients are not recommended because of the potential for severe bias with such study designs. The ability to define subgroups of the population who have heightened genetic susceptibility may become a reality in the next few years as genes conferring susceptibility to brain cancers or other head and neck tumors are identified; this scientific advance would have the potential to alter greatly the prospects and approaches of epidemiologic studies.