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Changing Clinical Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria as Transmission Decreases: Population-Based Prospective Panel Survey in the Brazilian Amazon. J Infect Dis 2024; 229:947-958. [PMID: 38324758 PMCID: PMC11011196 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malarial infections are often missed by microscopy, and most parasite carriers are asymptomatic in low-endemicity settings. Whether parasite detectability and its ability to elicit symptoms change as transmission declines remains unclear. METHODS We performed a prospective panel survey with repeated measurements on the same participants over 12 months to investigate whether Plasmodium vivax detectability by microscopy and risk of symptoms upon infection varied during a community-wide larviciding intervention in the Amazon basin of Brazil that markedly reduced vector density. We screened 1096 to 1400 residents in the intervention site for malaria by microscopy and quantitative TaqMan assays at baseline and twice during intervention. RESULTS We found that more P vivax infections than expected from their parasite densities measured by TaqMan assays were missed by microscopy as transmission decreased. At lower transmission, study participants appeared to tolerate higher P vivax loads without developing symptoms. We hypothesize that changes in the ratio between circulating parasites and those that accumulate in the bone marrow and spleen, by avoiding peripheral blood microscopy detection, account for decreased parasite detectability and lower risk of symptoms under low transmission. CONCLUSIONS P vivax infections are more likely to be subpatent and remain asymptomatic as malaria transmission decreases.
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The spark of synchronization in heterogeneous networks of chaotic maps. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2024; 34:021101. [PMID: 38305054 DOI: 10.1063/5.0173546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024]
Abstract
We investigate the emergence of synchronization in heterogeneous networks of chaotic maps. Our findings reveal that a small cluster of highly connected maps is responsible for triggering the spark of synchronization. After the spark, the synchronized cluster grows in size and progressively moves to less connected maps, eventually reaching a cluster that may remain synchronized over time. We explore how the shape of the network degree distribution affects the onset of synchronization and derive an expression based on the network construction that determines the expected time for a network to synchronize. Understanding how the network design affects the spark of synchronization is particularly important for the control and design of more robust systems that require some level of coherence between a subset of units for better functioning. Numerical simulations in finite-sized networks are consistent with this analysis.
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Emergence of chaotic cluster synchronization in heterogeneous networks. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2023; 33:091103. [PMID: 37703473 DOI: 10.1063/5.0169628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Many real-world complex systems rely on cluster synchronization to function properly. A cluster of nodes exhibits synchronous behavior, while others behave erratically. Predicting the emergence of these clusters and understanding the mechanism behind their structure and variation in response to a parameter change is a daunting task in networks that lack symmetry. We unravel the mechanism for the emergence of cluster synchronization in heterogeneous random networks. We develop heterogeneous mean-field approximation together with a self-consistent theory to determine the onset and stability of the cluster. Our analysis shows that cluster synchronization occurs in a wide variety of heterogeneous networks, node dynamics, and coupling functions. The results could lead to a new understanding of the dynamical behavior of networks ranging from neural to social.
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Dual effector population modification gene-drive strains of the African malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2221118120. [PMID: 37428915 PMCID: PMC10629562 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2221118120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Proposed genetic approaches for reducing human malaria include population modification, which introduces genes into vector mosquitoes to reduce or prevent parasite transmission. We demonstrate the potential of Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)-based gene-drive systems linked to dual antiparasite effector genes to spread rapidly through mosquito populations. Two strains have an autonomous gene-drive system coupled to dual anti-Plasmodium falciparum effector genes comprising single-chain variable fragment monoclonal antibodies targeting parasite ookinetes and sporozoites in the African malaria mosquitoes Anopheles gambiae (AgTP13) and Anopheles coluzzii (AcTP13). The gene-drive systems achieved full introduction within 3 to 6 mo after release in small cage trials. Life-table analyses revealed no fitness loads affecting AcTP13 gene-drive dynamics but AgTP13 males were less competitive than wild types. The effector molecules reduced significantly both parasite prevalence and infection intensities. These data supported transmission modeling of conceptual field releases in an island setting that shows meaningful epidemiological impacts at different sporozoite threshold levels (2.5 to 10 k) for human infection by reducing malaria incidence in optimal simulations by 50 to 90% within as few as 1 to 2 mo after a series of releases, and by ≥90% within 3 mo. Modeling outcomes for low sporozoite thresholds are sensitive to gene-drive system fitness loads, gametocytemia infection intensities during parasite challenges, and the formation of potentially drive-resistant genome target sites, extending the predicted times to achieve reduced incidence. TP13-based strains could be effective for malaria control strategies following validation of sporozoite transmission threshold numbers and testing field-derived parasite strains. These or similar strains are viable candidates for future field trials in a malaria-endemic region.
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A confinable female-lethal population suppression system in the malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eade8903. [PMID: 37406109 PMCID: PMC10321730 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ade8903] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
Malaria is among the world's deadliest diseases, predominantly affecting Sub-Saharan Africa and killing over half a million people annually. Controlling the principal vector, the mosquito Anopheles gambiae, as well as other anophelines, is among the most effective methods to control disease spread. Here, we develop a genetic population suppression system termed Ifegenia (inherited female elimination by genetically encoded nucleases to interrupt alleles) in this deadly vector. In this bicomponent CRISPR-based approach, we disrupt a female-essential gene, femaleless (fle), demonstrating complete genetic sexing via heritable daughter gynecide. Moreover, we demonstrate that Ifegenia males remain reproductively viable and can load both fle mutations and CRISPR machinery to induce fle mutations in subsequent generations, resulting in sustained population suppression. Through modeling, we demonstrate that iterative releases of nonbiting Ifegenia males can act as an effective, confinable, controllable, and safe population suppression and elimination system.
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Individual variation in Plasmodium vivax malaria risk: Are repeatedly infected people just unlucky? PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011020. [PMID: 36634044 PMCID: PMC9836309 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Extensive research has examined why some people have frequent Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes in sub-Saharan Africa while others remain free of disease most of the time. In contrast, malaria risk heterogeneity remains little studied in regions where P. vivax is the dominant species. Are repeatedly infected people in vivax malaria settings such as the Amazon just unlucky? Here, we briefly review evidence that human genetic polymorphism and acquired immunity after repeated exposure to parasites can modulate the risk of P. vivax infection and disease in predictable ways. One-fifth of the hosts account for 80% or more of the community-wide vivax malaria burden and contribute disproportionally to onward transmission, representing a priority target of more intensive interventions to achieve malaria elimination. Importantly, high-risk individuals eventually develop clinical immunity, even in areas with very low or residual malaria transmission, and may constitute a large but silent parasite reservoir.
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Malaria Resilience in South America: Epidemiology, Vector Biology, and Immunology Insights from the Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 107:168-181. [PMID: 36228921 PMCID: PMC9662219 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
The 1990s saw the rapid reemergence of malaria in Amazonia, where it remains an important public health priority in South America. The Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) was designed to take a multidisciplinary approach toward identifying novel malaria control and elimination strategies. Based on geographically and epidemiologically distinct sites in the Northeastern Peruvian and Western Brazilian Amazon regions, synergistic projects integrate malaria epidemiology, vector biology, and immunology. The Amazonian ICEMR's overarching goal is to understand how human behavior and other sociodemographic features of human reservoirs of transmission-predominantly asymptomatically parasitemic people-interact with the major Amazonian malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus (formerly Anopheles) darlingi, and with human immune responses to maintain malaria resilience and continued endemicity in a hypoendemic setting. Here, we will review Amazonian ICEMR's achievements on the synergies among malaria epidemiology, Plasmodium-vector interactions, and immune response, and how those provide a roadmap for further research, and, most importantly, point toward how to achieve malaria control and elimination in the Americas.
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Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. J Theor Biol 2022; 540:111063. [PMID: 35189135 PMCID: PMC8855661 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Revised: 02/14/2022] [Accepted: 02/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation". Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.
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Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant has been hypothesized to cause more severe illness than previous variants, especially in children. Successive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serosurveys in the Brazilian Amazon showed that age-specific attack rates and proportions of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections were similar before and after Gamma variant emergence.
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Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022:2020.04.27.20081893. [PMID: 32511451 PMCID: PMC7239079 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation". Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being critical to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.
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Relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic infections to Plasmodium vivax transmission in the Amazon: pooled analysis of individual participant data from population-based cross-sectional surveys. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2022; 9:100169. [PMID: 35663000 PMCID: PMC9161731 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Background Low-density and asymptomatic Plasmodium vivax infections remain largely undetected and untreated and may contribute significantly to malaria transmission in the Amazon. Methods We analysed individual participant data from population-based surveys that measured P vivax prevalence by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) between 2002 and 2015 and modelled the relationship between parasite density and infectiousness to vectors using membrane feeding assay data. We estimated the proportion of sub-patent (i.e., missed by microscopy) and asymptomatic P vivax infections and examined how parasite density relates to clinical manifestations and mosquito infection in Amazonian settings. Findings We pooled 24,986 observations from six sites in Brazil and Peru. P vivax was detected in 6·8% and 2·1% of them by PCR and microscopy, respectively. 58·5% to 92·6% of P vivax infections were asymptomatic and 61·2% to 96·3% were sub-patent across study sites. P vivax density thresholds associated with clinical symptoms were one order of magnitude higher in children than in adults. We estimate that sub-patent parasite carriers are minimally infectious and contribute 12·7% to 24·9% of the community-wide P vivax transmission, while asymptomatic carriers are the source of 28·2% to 79·2% of mosquito infections. Interpretation Asymptomatic P vivax carriers constitute a vast infectious reservoir that, if targeted by malaria elimination strategies, could substantially reduce malaria transmission in the Amazon. Infected children may remain asymptomatic despite high parasite densities that elicit clinical manifestations in adults. Funding US National Institutes of Health, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, and Belgium Development Cooperation.
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Interacting Epidemics in Amazonian Brazil: Prior Dengue Infection Associated With Increased Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Risk in a Population-Based Cohort Study. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 73:2045-2054. [PMID: 33956939 PMCID: PMC8135953 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Immunity after dengue virus (DENV) infection has been suggested to cross-protect from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and mortality. METHODS We tested whether serologically proven prior DENV infection diagnosed in September-October 2019, before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, reduced the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and clinically apparent COVID-19 over the next 13 months in a population-based cohort in Amazonian Brazil. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of infection and disease, adjusting for potential individual and household-level confounders. Virus genomes from 14 local SARS-CoV-2 isolates were obtained using whole-genome sequencing. RESULTS Anti-DENV immunoglobulin G (IgG) was found in 37.0% of 1285 cohort participants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34.3% to 39.7%) in 2019, with 10.4 (95% CI: 6.7-15.5) seroconversion events per 100 person-years during the follow-up. In 2020, 35.2% of the participants (95% CI: 32.6% to 37.8%) had anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and 57.1% of the 448 SARS-CoV-2 seropositives (95% CI: 52.4% to 61.8%) reported clinical manifestations at the time of infection. Participants aged >60 years were twice more likely to have symptomatic COVID-19 than children under 5 years. Locally circulating SARS-CoV-2 isolates were assigned to the B.1.1.33 lineage. Contrary to the cross-protection hypothesis, prior DENV infection was associated with twice the risk of clinically apparent COVID-19 upon SARS-CoV-2 infection, with P values between .025 and .039 after adjustment for identified confounders. CONCLUSIONS Higher risk of clinically apparent COVID-19 among individuals with prior dengue has important public health implications for communities sequentially exposed to DENV and SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.
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Low-level Plasmodium vivax exposure, maternal antibodies, and anemia in early childhood: Population-based birth cohort study in Amazonian Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009568. [PMID: 34264946 PMCID: PMC8282015 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Malaria causes significant morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Neonates and young infants remain relatively protected from clinical disease and the transplacental transfer of maternal antibodies is hypothesized as one of the protective factors. The adverse health effects of Plasmodium vivax malaria in early childhood–traditionally viewed as a benign infection–remain largely neglected in relatively low-endemicity settings across the Amazon. Methodology/Principal findings Overall, 1,539 children participating in a birth cohort study in the main transmission hotspot of Amazonian Brazil had a questionnaire administered, and blood sampled at the two-year follow-up visit. Only 7.1% of them experienced malaria confirmed by microscopy during their first 2 years of life– 89.1% of the infections were caused by P. vivax. Young infants appear to be little exposed to, or largely protected from infection, but children >12 months of age become as vulnerable to vivax malaria as their mothers. Few (1.4%) children experienced ≥4 infections during the 2-year follow-up, accounting for 43.4% of the overall malaria burden among study participants. Antenatal malaria diagnosed by microscopy during pregnancy or by PCR at delivery emerged as a significant correlate of subsequent risk of P. vivax infection in the offspring (incidence rate ratio, 2.58; P = 0.002), after adjusting for local transmission intensity. Anti-P. vivax antibodies measured at delivery do not protect mothers from subsequent malaria; whether maternal antibodies transferred to the fetus reduce early malaria risk in children remains undetermined. Finally, recent and repeated vivax malaria episodes in early childhood are associated with increased risk of anemia at the age of 2 years in this relatively low-endemicity setting. Conclusions/Significance Antenatal infection increases the risk of vivax malaria in the offspring and repeated childhood P. vivax infections are associated with anemia at the age of 2 years. Plasmodium vivax malaria causes frequent hospital admissions of infants and toddlers in areas of intense transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, often due to severe anemia, but its epidemiology and burden have been understudied in children from other endemic settings. Here we characterize the cumulative impact of P. vivax infections in infants and toddlers exposed to relatively low levels of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon. We have previously shown that vivax malaria in pregnancy is associated with increased risk of maternal anemia and impaired fetal growth in this population. Now we show that the adverse effects of malaria extend to early childhood. Children born to mothers who had one or more infections during pregnancy are at an elevated risk of P. vivax malaria in their early life, although the transfer of maternal antibodies to the fetus may provide some short-term protection. Children who are repeatedly infected with P. vivax since birth are more likely to be anemic at the age of 2 years. These findings further challenge the traditional view of vivax malaria as a relatively benign infection in pregnancy and early childhood in the Amazon.
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Monitoring Plasmodium vivax resistance to antimalarials: Persisting challenges and future directions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR PARASITOLOGY-DRUGS AND DRUG RESISTANCE 2020; 15:9-24. [PMID: 33360105 PMCID: PMC7770540 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpddr.2020.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2020] [Revised: 11/27/2020] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Emerging antimalarial drug resistance may undermine current efforts to control and eliminate Plasmodium vivax, the most geographically widespread yet neglected human malaria parasite. Endemic countries are expected to assess regularly the therapeutic efficacy of antimalarial drugs in use in order to adjust their malaria treatment policies, but proper funding and trained human resources are often lacking to execute relatively complex and expensive clinical studies, ideally complemented by ex vivo assays of drug resistance. Here we review the challenges for assessing in vivo P. vivax responses to commonly used antimalarials, especially chloroquine and primaquine, in the presence of confounding factors such as variable drug absorption, metabolism and interaction, and the risk of new infections following successful radical cure. We introduce a simple modeling approach to quantify the relative contribution of relapses and new infections to recurring parasitemias in clinical studies of hypnozoitocides. Finally, we examine recent methodological advances that may render ex vivo assays more practical and widely used to confirm P. vivax drug resistance phenotypes in endemic settings and review current approaches to the development of robust genetic markers for monitoring chloroquine resistance in P. vivax populations. Plasmodium vivax resistance to chloroquine may undermine malaria elimination efforts. Plasmodium vivax resistance to schizontocides has been mostly monitored in therapeutic efficacy studies. In vivo studies to determine the anti-relapse efficacy of primaquine are challenging to design and execute. Ex vivo assays to determine Plasmodium vivax resistance to schizontocides remain limited to research settings. Robust molecular markers to monitor Plasmodium vivax drug resistance are currently lacking.
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Population genomics reveals the expansion of highly inbred Plasmodium vivax lineages in the main malaria hotspot of Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008808. [PMID: 33112884 PMCID: PMC7592762 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008808] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Plasmodium vivax is a neglected human malaria parasite that causes significant morbidity in the Americas, the Middle East, Asia, and the Western Pacific. Population genomic approaches remain little explored to map local and regional transmission pathways of P. vivax across the main endemic sites in the Americas, where great progress has been made towards malaria elimination over the past decades. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We analyze 38 patient-derived P. vivax genome sequences from Mâncio Lima (ML)-the Amazonian malaria hotspot next to the Brazil-Peru border-and 24 sequences from two other sites in Acre State, Brazil, a country that contributes 23% of malaria cases in the Americas. We show that the P. vivax population of ML is genetically diverse (π = 4.7 × 10-4), with a high polymorphism particularly in genes encoding proteins putatively involved in red blood cell invasion. Paradoxically, however, parasites display strong genome-wide linkage disequilibrium, being fragmented into discrete lineages that are remarkably stable across time and space, with only occasional recombination between them. Using identity-by-descent approaches, we identified a large cluster of closely related sequences that comprises 16 of 38 genomes sampled in ML over 26 months. Importantly, we found significant ancestry sharing between parasites at a large geographic distance, consistent with substantial gene flow between regional P. vivax populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We have characterized the sustained expansion of highly inbred P. vivax lineages in a malaria hotspot that can seed regional transmission. Potential source populations in hotspots represent a priority target for malaria elimination in the Amazon.
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Quantifying and preventing Plasmodium vivax recurrences in primaquine-untreated pregnant women: An observational and modeling study in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008526. [PMID: 32735631 PMCID: PMC7423143 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2019] [Revised: 08/12/2020] [Accepted: 06/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Each year, 4.3 million pregnant women are exposed to malaria risk in Latin America and the Caribbean. Plasmodium vivax causes 76% of the regional malaria burden and appears to be less affected than P. falciparum by current elimination efforts. This is in part due to the parasite's ability to stay dormant in the liver and originate relapses within months after a single mosquito inoculation. Primaquine (PQ) is routinely combined with chloroquine (CQ) or other schizontocidal drugs to supress P. vivax relapses and reduce the risk of late blood-stage recrudescences of parasites with low-grade CQ resistance. However, PQ is contraindicated for pregnant women, who remain at increased risk of repeated infections following CQ-only treatment. Here we apply a mathematical model to time-to-recurrence data from Juruá Valley, Brazil's main malaria transmission hotspot, to quantify the extra burden of parasite recurrences attributable to PQ ineligibility in pregnant women. The model accounts for competing risks, since relapses and late recrudescences (that may be at least partially prevented by PQ) and new infections (that are not affected by PQ use) all contribute to recurrences. We compare recurrence rates observed after primary P. vivax infections in 158 pregnant women treated with CQ only and 316 P. vivax infections in non-pregnant control women, matched for age, date of infection, and place of residence, who were administered a standard CQ-PQ combination. We estimate that, once infected with P. vivax, 23% of the pregnant women have one or more vivax malaria recurrences over the next 12 weeks; 86% of these early P. vivax recurrences are attributable to relapses or late recrudescences, rather than new infections that could be prevented by reducing malaria exposure during pregnancy. Model simulations indicate that weekly CQ chemoprophylaxis extending over 4 to 12 weeks, starting after the first vivax malaria episode diagnosed in pregnancy, might reduce the risk of P. vivax recurrences over the next 12 months by 20% to 65%. We conclude that post-treatment CQ prophylaxis could be further explored as a measure to prevent vivax malaria recurrences in pregnancy and avert their adverse effects on maternal and neonatal health.
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Modelling the epidemiology of residual Plasmodium vivax malaria in a heterogeneous host population: A case study in the Amazon Basin. PLoS Comput Biol 2020; 16:e1007377. [PMID: 32168349 PMCID: PMC7108741 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2019] [Revised: 03/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The overall malaria burden in the Americas has decreased dramatically over the past two decades, but residual transmission pockets persist across the Amazon Basin, where Plasmodium vivax is the predominant infecting species. Current elimination efforts require a better quantitative understanding of malaria transmission dynamics for planning, monitoring, and evaluating interventions at the community level. This can be achieved with mathematical models that properly account for risk heterogeneity in communities approaching elimination, where few individuals disproportionately contribute to overall malaria prevalence, morbidity, and onwards transmission. Here we analyse demographic information combined with routinely collected malaria morbidity data from the town of Mâncio Lima, the main urban transmission hotspot of Brazil. We estimate the proportion of high-risk subjects in the host population by fitting compartmental susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) transmission models simultaneously to age-stratified vivax malaria incidence densities and the frequency distribution of P. vivax malaria attacks experienced by each individual over 12 months. Simulations with the best-fitting SIS model indicate that 20% of the hosts contribute 86% of the overall vivax malaria burden. Despite the low overall force of infection typically found in the Amazon, about one order of magnitude lower than that in rural Africa, high-risk individuals gradually develop clinical immunity following repeated infections and eventually constitute a substantial infectious reservoir comprised of asymptomatic parasite carriers that is overlooked by routine surveillance but likely fuels onwards malaria transmission. High-risk individuals therefore represent a priority target for more intensive and effective interventions that may not be readily delivered to the entire community.
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Statistical modeling of surveillance data to identify correlates of urban malaria risk: A population-based study in the Amazon Basin. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0220980. [PMID: 31398228 PMCID: PMC6688813 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the recent malaria burden reduction in the Americas, focal transmission persists across the Amazon Basin. Timely analysis of surveillance data is crucial to characterize high-risk individuals and households for better targeting of regional elimination efforts. Here we analyzed 5,480 records of laboratory-confirmed clinical malaria episodes combined with demographic and socioeconomic information to identify risk factors for elevated malaria incidence in Mâncio Lima, the main urban transmission hotspot of Brazil. Overdispersed malaria count data clustered into households were fitted with random-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Random-effect predictors were used to characterize the spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at the household level. Adult males were identified as the population stratum at greatest risk, likely due to increased occupational exposure away of the town. However, poor housing and residence in the less urbanized periphery of the town were also found to be key predictors of malaria risk, consistent with a substantial local transmission. Two thirds of the 8,878 urban residents remained uninfected after 23,975 person-years of follow-up. Importantly, we estimated that nearly 14% of them, mostly children and older adults living in the central urban hub, were free of malaria risk, being either unexposed, naturally unsusceptible, or immune to infection. We conclude that statistical modeling of routinely collected, but often neglected, malaria surveillance data can be explored to characterize drivers of transmission heterogeneity at the community level and provide evidence for the rational deployment of control interventions.
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The Hidden Burden of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Pregnancy in the Amazon: An Observational Study in Northwestern Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2018; 99:73-83. [PMID: 29741155 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
We measured the prevalence of malaria in pregnancy and estimated its impact on birth weight and length and maternal hemoglobin in 1,180 women from Juruá Valley, the main malaria hotspot in Brazil. Antenatal malaria episodes, 74.6% of them due to Plasmodium vivax, were microscopically diagnosed in 8.0% of the women and were associated with an average reduction in birth weight z-scores of 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.14-0.57) and in birth length z-scores of 0.31 (95% CI = 0.08-0.54), compared with malaria-free pregnancies. Affected mothers had a mean decrease in hemoglobin concentration at delivery of 0.33 g/100 mL (95% CI = 0.05-0.62 g/100 mL); 51.6% were anemic. The timing and frequency of antenatal infections influenced pregnancy outcomes and first- or second-trimester infections were not associated with decreased birth weight and length and maternal hemoglobin at delivery. Although repeated antenatal vivax infections were associated with poorer birth outcomes, even a single vivax malaria episode was associated with a significant reduction in birth weight and length and maternal hemoglobin. Overall, 7.5% women had the parasite's DNA found in peripheral blood at delivery. Most (83.1%) of these 89 perinatal infections were due to P. vivax and only 7.9% of them progressed to symptomatic disease after delivery. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum DNA was found in 0.6% and 0.3% of 637 cord blood samples examined, respectively, but only one newborn developed clinical neonatal malaria. Our results further challenge the notion that vivax malaria is relatively benign during pregnancy and call for better strategies for its prevention.
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Economic and marketing benefits of an air ambulance program. NURSING ECONOMIC$ 1986; 4:122-7. [PMID: 3635682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
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