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Scaini A, Mulligan J, Berg H, Brangarí A, Bukachi V, Carenzo S, Chau Thi D, Courtney-Mustaphi C, Ekblom A, Fjelde H, Fridahl M, Hansson A, Hicks L, Höjer M, Juma B, Kain JH, Kariuki RW, Kim S, Lane P, Leizeaga A, Lindborg R, Livsey J, Lyon SW, Marchant R, McConville JR, Munishi L, Nilsson D, Olang L, Olin S, Olsson L, Rogers PM, Rousk J, Sandén H, Sasaki N, Shoemaker A, Smith B, Thai Huynh Phuong L, Varela Varela A, Venkatappa M, Vico G, Von Uexkull N, Wamsler C, Wondie M, Zapata P, Zapata Campos MJ, Manzoni S, Tompsett A. Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience. Ambio 2024; 53:517-533. [PMID: 38324120 PMCID: PMC10920586 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01968-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2023] [Revised: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/08/2024]
Abstract
Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger-scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Scaini
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Joseph Mulligan
- Kounkuey Design Initiative (KDI), Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Håkan Berg
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Albert Brangarí
- Microbial Ecology, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Vera Bukachi
- Kounkuey Design Initiative (KDI), Los Angeles, CA, USA
- University College London, London, UK
| | - Sebastian Carenzo
- Instituto de Estudios sobre la Ciencia y la Tecnología, Universidad Nacional de Quilmes/CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Da Chau Thi
- Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Colin Courtney-Mustaphi
- Geoecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 27, 4056, Basel, Switzerland
- Center for Water Infrastructure and Sustainable Energy (WISE) Futures, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 9124, Nelson Mandela, Tengeru, Tanzania
| | - Anneli Ekblom
- Department of Archaeology and Ancient History, Uppsala University, 752 38, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Hanne Fjelde
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Mathias Fridahl
- Unit of Environmental Change, Department of Thematic Studies, Institution of Arts and Sciences, Linköping University, 581 83, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Anders Hansson
- Unit of Environmental Change, Department of Thematic Studies, Institution of Arts and Sciences, Linköping University, 581 83, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Lettice Hicks
- Microbial Ecology, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Mattias Höjer
- Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
- Division of Strategic Sustainability Studies, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Benard Juma
- Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Technical University of Kenya, P.O Box 52428-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jaan-Henrik Kain
- Gothenburg Research Institute, University of Gothenburg, 405 30, Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Rebecca W Kariuki
- School of School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Arizona, USA
- School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania
| | - Soben Kim
- Faculty of Forestry Science) Dangkor, Royal University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 2696, Phnom Phnom, Cambodia
| | - Paul Lane
- Department of Archaeology and Ancient History, Uppsala University, 752 38, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ainara Leizeaga
- Microbial Ecology, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Michael Smith Building, Manchester, UK
| | - Regina Lindborg
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - John Livsey
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Steve W Lyon
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - Rob Marchant
- School of Life Sciences and Bio-Engineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania
| | - Jennifer R McConville
- Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), 75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Linus Munishi
- School of School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Arizona, USA
| | - David Nilsson
- Division of History of Science, Technology and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Luke Olang
- Department of Biosystems and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Kenya, P.O. Box 52428-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Lennart Olsson
- Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), Lund University, Box 170, 22100, Lund, Sweden
| | - Peter Msumali Rogers
- Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Johannes Rousk
- Microbial Ecology, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Hans Sandén
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Nophea Sasaki
- Natural Resources Management, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, 12120, Pathum Thani, Thailand
| | - Anna Shoemaker
- Department of Archaeology and Ancient History, Uppsala University, 752 38, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Benjamin Smith
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW, Australia
| | - Lan Thai Huynh Phuong
- Department of Rural Development and Natural Resources Management, An Giang University, Long Xuyên, 90000, An Giang Province, Vietnam
- Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, 70000, Vietnam
| | - Ana Varela Varela
- London School of Economics, Department of Geography and Environment, London, UK
| | - Manjunatha Venkatappa
- LEET Intelligence Co., Ltd., Suan Prikthai, Muang Pathum Thani, 12000, Pathum Thani, Thailand
| | - Giulia Vico
- Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Nina Von Uexkull
- Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Christine Wamsler
- Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), Lund University, Box 170, 22100, Lund, Sweden
- Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Menale Wondie
- Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI), Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Patrick Zapata
- School of Public Administration, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - María José Zapata Campos
- Gothenburg Research Institute, University of Gothenburg, 405 30, Göteborg, Sweden
- Department of Business Administration, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, 40530, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Stefano Manzoni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anna Tompsett
- Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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2
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Jaakkola E, Hellén H, Olin S, Pleijel H, Tykkä T, Holst T. Ozone stress response of leaf BVOC emission and photosynthesis in mountain birch ( Betula pubescens spp. czerepanovii) depends on leaf age. Plant Environ Interact 2024; 5:e10134. [PMID: 38323128 PMCID: PMC10840370 DOI: 10.1002/pei3.10134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/08/2024]
Abstract
Oxidative stress from ozone (O3) causes plants to alter their emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) and their photosynthetic rate. Stress reactions from O3 on birch trees can result in prohibited plant growth and lead to increased BVOC emission rates as well as changes in their compound blend to emit more monoterpenes (MT) and sesquiterpenes (SQT). BVOCs take part in atmospheric reactions such as enhancing the production of secondary organic aerosols (SOA). As the compound blend and emission rate change with O3 stress, this can influence the atmospheric conditions by affecting the production of SOA. Studying the stress responses of plants provides important information on how these reactions might change, which is vital to making better predictions of the future climate. In this study, measurements were taken to find out how the leaves of mature mountain birch trees (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) respond to different levels of elevated O3 exposure in situ depending on leaf age. We found that leaves from both early and late summers responded with induced SQT emission after exposure to 120 ppb O3. Early leaves were, however, more sensitive to increased O3 concentrations, with enhanced emission of green leaf volatiles (GLV) and tendencies of both induced leaf senescence as well as poor recovery in the photosynthetic rate between exposures. Late leaves had more stable photosynthetic rates throughout the experiment and responded less to exposure at different O3 levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erica Jaakkola
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Heidi Hellén
- Atmospheric Composition ResearchFinnish Meteorological InstituteHelsinkiFinland
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Håkan Pleijel
- Department of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
| | - Toni Tykkä
- Atmospheric Composition ResearchFinnish Meteorological InstituteHelsinkiFinland
| | - Thomas Holst
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
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3
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Franke JA, Müller C, Minoli S, Elliott J, Folberth C, Gardner C, Hank T, Izaurralde RC, Jägermeyr J, Jones CD, Liu W, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Ruane AC, Stephens H, Zabel F, Moyer EJ. Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:167-181. [PMID: 34478595 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- James A Franke
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Joshua Elliott
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Charles Gardner
- Program on Global Environment, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Tobias Hank
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | | | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Haynes Stephens
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Florian Zabel
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Elisabeth J Moyer
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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4
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Zabel F, Müller C, Elliott J, Minoli S, Jägermeyr J, Schneider JM, Franke JA, Moyer E, Dury M, Francois L, Folberth C, Liu W, Pugh TAM, Olin S, Rabin SS, Mauser W, Hank T, Ruane AC, Asseng S. Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:3870-3882. [PMID: 33998112 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15649] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2021] [Accepted: 04/08/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Zabel
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Joshua Elliott
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Sara Minoli
- Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Julia M Schneider
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - James A Franke
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Elisabeth Moyer
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | | | | | - Christian Folberth
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | | | - Sam S Rabin
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Wolfram Mauser
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Tobias Hank
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Senthold Asseng
- School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich (TUM), München, Germany
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Wang X, Müller C, Elliot J, Mueller ND, Ciais P, Jägermeyr J, Gerber J, Dumas P, Wang C, Yang H, Li L, Deryng D, Folberth C, Liu W, Makowski D, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Reddy A, Schmid E, Jeong S, Zhou F, Piao S. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1235. [PMID: 33623028 PMCID: PMC7902844 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2019] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts. There are big uncertainties in the contribution of irrigation to crop yields. Here, the authors use Bayesian model averaging to combine statistical and process-based models and quantify the contribution of irrigation for wheat and maize yields, finding that irrigation alone cannot close yield gaps for a large fraction of global rainfed agriculture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuhui Wang
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Joshua Elliot
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.,Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Nathaniel D Mueller
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.,Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.,Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - James Gerber
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Patrice Dumas
- Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Nogent sur Marne, 94130, France
| | - Chenzhi Wang
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China
| | - Hui Yang
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Laurent Li
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75005, Paris, France
| | | | - Christian Folberth
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333, Munich, Germany
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, 100083, Beijing, China
| | - David Makowski
- INRA, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, UMR 211 Agronomie, Thiverval-Grignon, 78850, France
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Ashwan Reddy
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Erwin Schmid
- Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sujong Jeong
- Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Feng Zhou
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.,Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China.,Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China
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6
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Tagesson T, Tian F, Schurgers G, Horion S, Scholes R, Ahlström A, Ardö J, Moreno A, Madani N, Olin S, Fensholt R. A physiology-based Earth observation model indicates stagnation in the global gross primary production during recent decades. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:836-854. [PMID: 33124068 PMCID: PMC7898396 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Earth observation-based estimates of global gross primary production (GPP) are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. In this study, we attempt an ecosystem-level physiological approach of estimating GPP using an asymptotic light response function (LRF) between GPP and incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that better represents the response observed at high spatiotemporal resolutions than the conventional light use efficiency approach. Modelled GPP is thereafter constrained with meteorological and hydrological variables. The variability in field-observed GPP, net primary productivity and solar-induced fluorescence was better or equally well captured by our LRF-based GPP when compared with six state-of-the-art Earth observation-based GPP products. Over the period 1982-2015, the LRF-based average annual global terrestrial GPP budget was 121.8 ± 3.5 Pg C, with a detrended inter-annual variability of 0.74 ± 0.13 Pg C. The strongest inter-annual variability was observed in semi-arid regions, but croplands in China and India also showed strong inter-annual variations. The trend in global terrestrial GPP during 1982-2015 was 0.27 ± 0.02 Pg C year-1 , and was generally larger in the northern than the southern hemisphere. Most positive GPP trends were seen in areas with croplands whereas negative trends were observed for large non-cropped parts of the tropics. Trends were strong during the eighties and nineties but levelled off around year 2000. Other GPP products either showed no trends or continuous increase throughout the study period. This study benchmarks a first global Earth observation-based model using an asymptotic light response function, improving simulations of GPP, and reveals a stagnation in the global GPP after the year 2000.
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Affiliation(s)
- Torbern Tagesson
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource ManagementUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
| | - Feng Tian
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
- School of Remote Sensing and Information EngineeringWuhan UniversityWuhanChina
| | - Guy Schurgers
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource ManagementUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
| | - Stephanie Horion
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource ManagementUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
| | - Robert Scholes
- Global Change InstituteUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Anders Ahlström
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
- Center for Middle Eastern StudiesLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Jonas Ardö
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Alvaro Moreno
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL)Universitat de ValènciaPaterna, ValènciaSpain
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, W.A. Franke College of Forestry & ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
| | | | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversityLundSweden
| | - Rasmus Fensholt
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource ManagementUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
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7
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Tian H, Xu R, Canadell JG, Thompson RL, Winiwarter W, Suntharalingam P, Davidson EA, Ciais P, Jackson RB, Janssens-Maenhout G, Prather MJ, Regnier P, Pan N, Pan S, Peters GP, Shi H, Tubiello FN, Zaehle S, Zhou F, Arneth A, Battaglia G, Berthet S, Bopp L, Bouwman AF, Buitenhuis ET, Chang J, Chipperfield MP, Dangal SRS, Dlugokencky E, Elkins JW, Eyre BD, Fu B, Hall B, Ito A, Joos F, Krummel PB, Landolfi A, Laruelle GG, Lauerwald R, Li W, Lienert S, Maavara T, MacLeod M, Millet DB, Olin S, Patra PK, Prinn RG, Raymond PA, Ruiz DJ, van der Werf GR, Vuichard N, Wang J, Weiss RF, Wells KC, Wilson C, Yang J, Yao Y. A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks. Nature 2020; 586:248-256. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 377] [Impact Index Per Article: 94.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2019] [Accepted: 08/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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8
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Tagesson T, Schurgers G, Horion S, Ciais P, Tian F, Brandt M, Ahlström A, Wigneron JP, Ardö J, Olin S, Fan L, Wu Z, Fensholt R. Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:202-209. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-1090-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2019] [Accepted: 12/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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9
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Müller C, Elliott J, Kelly D, Arneth A, Balkovic J, Ciais P, Deryng D, Folberth C, Hoek S, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Khabarov N, Lawrence P, Liu W, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Reddy A, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Sakurai G, Schmid E, Skalsky R, Wang X, de Wit A, Yang H. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Sci Data 2019; 6:50. [PMID: 31068583 PMCID: PMC6506552 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - David Kelly
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Juraj Balkovic
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Comenius University in Bratislava, 842 15, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Delphine Deryng
- University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Comenius University in Bratislava, 842 15, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Steven Hoek
- Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6708PB, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
- Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Texas A&M University, Temple, TX, 76502, USA
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Nikolay Khabarov
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Peter Lawrence
- Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
| | - Ashwan Reddy
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Cynthia Rosenzweig
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Alex C Ruane
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Gen Sakurai
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Research Organization, Tsukuba, 305-8604, Japan
| | - Erwin Schmid
- Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | - Rastislav Skalsky
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, National Agricultural and Food Centre, 82109, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China
| | - Allard de Wit
- Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6708PB, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Hong Yang
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Sciences, MGU, University of Basel, CH-4003, Basel, Switzerland
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10
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Tian H, Yang J, Xu R, Lu C, Canadell JG, Davidson EA, Jackson RB, Arneth A, Chang J, Ciais P, Gerber S, Ito A, Joos F, Lienert S, Messina P, Olin S, Pan S, Peng C, Saikawa E, Thompson RL, Vuichard N, Winiwarter W, Zaehle S, Zhang B. Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty. Glob Change Biol 2019; 25:640-659. [PMID: 30414347 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2018] [Revised: 10/02/2018] [Accepted: 10/24/2018] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N/year in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N/year to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jia Yang
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
- Department of Forestry, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi
| | - Rongting Xu
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
| | - Chaoqun Lu
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa
| | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australia
| | - Eric A Davidson
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, Maryland
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California
- Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Stefan Gerber
- IFAS, Soil and Water Sciences Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Akihiko Ito
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Sebastian Lienert
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Palmira Messina
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Shufen Pan
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
| | - Changhui Peng
- Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Eri Saikawa
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Nicolas Vuichard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Wilfried Winiwarter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases (AIR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- The Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Gora, Zielona Gora, Poland
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany
| | - Bowen Zhang
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
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11
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Blanke J, Boke-Olén N, Olin S, Chang J, Sahlin U, Lindeskog M, Lehsten V. Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslands. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0201058. [PMID: 30102732 PMCID: PMC6089410 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2017] [Accepted: 07/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
European managed grasslands are amongst the most productive in the world. Besides temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation, grass production is also highly controlled by applications of nitrogen fertilizers and land management to sustain a high productivity. Since management characteristics of pastures vary greatly across Europe, land-use intensity and their projections are critical input variables in earth system modeling when examining and predicting the effects of increasingly intensified agricultural and livestock systems on the environment. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of pastures in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This is done by incorporating daily carbon allocation for grasses as a foundation to further implement daily land management routines and land-use intensity data into the model to discriminate between intensively and extensively used regions. We further compare our new simulations with leaf area index observations, reported regional grassland productivity, and simulations conducted with the vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM. Additionally, we analyze the implications of including pasture fertilization and daily management compared to the standard version of LPJ-GUESS. Our results demonstrate that grassland productivity cannot be adequately captured without including land-use intensity data in form of nitrogen applications. Using this type of information improved spatial patterns of grassland productivity significantly compared to standard LPJ-GUESS. In general, simulations for net primary productivity, net ecosystem carbon balance and nitrogen leaching were considerably increased in the extended version. Finally, the adapted version of LPJ-GUESS, driven with projections of climate and land-use intensity, simulated an increase in potential grassland productivity until 2050 for several agro-climatic regions, most notably for the Mediterranean North, the Mediterranean South, the Atlantic Central and the Atlantic South.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Blanke
- Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Niklas Boke-Olén
- Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Stefan Olin
- Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Ullrika Sahlin
- Lund University, Center for Environmental and Climate Research, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Mats Lindeskog
- Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Veiko Lehsten
- Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape research (WSL), Zürcherstr. 11, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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12
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Krause A, Pugh TAM, Bayer AD, Li W, Leung F, Bondeau A, Doelman JC, Humpenöder F, Anthoni P, Bodirsky BL, Ciais P, Müller C, Murray-Tortarolo G, Olin S, Popp A, Sitch S, Stehfest E, Arneth A. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:3025-3038. [PMID: 29569788 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Anita D Bayer
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Wei Li
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Felix Leung
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Alberte Bondeau
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology IMBE), Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | | | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | | | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Catedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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13
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Tang J, Yurova AY, Schurgers G, Miller PA, Olin S, Smith B, Siewert MB, Olefeldt D, Pilesjö P, Poska A. Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment: Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow. Sci Total Environ 2018; 622-623:260-274. [PMID: 29216467 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2017] [Revised: 11/20/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Tang
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden; Terrestrial Ecology Section, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Center for Permafrost, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Alla Y Yurova
- Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia; NANSEN International Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, St. Petersburg, Russia.
| | - Guy Schurgers
- Center for Permafrost, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Paul A Miller
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden.
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden.
| | - Benjamin Smith
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden.
| | - Matthias B Siewert
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Sweden; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - David Olefeldt
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
| | - Petter Pilesjö
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden.
| | - Anneli Poska
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Univeristy, Sweden; Institute of Geology, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia.
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14
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Henry RC, Engström K, Olin S, Alexander P, Arneth A, Rounsevell MDA. Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0194695. [PMID: 29566091 PMCID: PMC5864037 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2017] [Accepted: 03/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. C. Henry
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - K. Engström
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, Sweden
| | - S. Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, Sweden
| | - P. Alexander
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Land Economy and Environment Research, SRUC, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A. Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - M. D. A. Rounsevell
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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15
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Olsson C, Olin S, Lindström J, Jönsson AM. Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:9954-9969. [PMID: 29238528 PMCID: PMC5723629 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2017] [Revised: 08/08/2017] [Accepted: 08/19/2017] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051–2080 than in 1971–2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cecilia Olsson
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden
| | - Johan Lindström
- Centre for Mathematical Sciences Lund University Lund Sweden
| | - Anna Maria Jönsson
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden
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16
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Tolbert MK, Olin S, MacLane S, Gould E, Steiner JM, Vaden S, Price J. Evaluation of Gastric pH and Serum Gastrin Concentrations in Cats with Chronic Kidney Disease. J Vet Intern Med 2017; 31:1414-1419. [PMID: 28833548 PMCID: PMC5598879 DOI: 10.1111/jvim.14807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2017] [Revised: 06/07/2017] [Accepted: 07/13/2017] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a highly prevalent condition in cats. Advanced CKD is associated with hyporexia and vomiting, which typically are attributed to uremic toxins and gastric hyperacidity. However, gastric pH studies have not been performed in cats with CKD. Hypothesis/Objectives To determine if cats with CKD have decreased gastric pH compared to age‐matched, healthy cats. Based on previous work demonstrating an association of hypergastrinemia and CKD, we hypothesized that cats with CKD would have decreased gastric pH compared to healthy, age‐matched control cats. Animals 10 CKD cats; 9 healthy control cats. Methods All cats with concurrent disease were excluded on the basis of history, physical examination, CBC, plasma biochemistry profile, urinalysis, urine culture, serum total thyroxine concentration, and serum symmetric dimethylarginine concentration (controls only) obtained within 24 hours of pH monitoring and assessment of serum gastrin concentrations. Serum for gastrin determination was collected, and 12‐hour continuous gastric pH monitoring was performed in all cats. Serum gastrin concentration, mean pH, and percentage time that gastric pH was strongly acidic (pH <1 and <2) were compared between groups. Results No significant differences in serum gastrin concentrations were observed between groups (medians [range]: CKD, 18.7 ng/dL [<10–659.0]; healthy, 54.6 ng/dL [<10–98.0]; P‐value = 0.713) or of any pH parameters including mean ± SD gastric pH (CKD, 1.8 ± 0.5; healthy, 1.6 ± 0.3; P‐value = 0.23). Conclusions and Clinical Importance These findings suggest that cats with CKD may not have gastric hyperacidity compared to healthy cats and, therefore, may not need acid suppression. Thus, further studies to determine if there is a benefit to acid suppression in cats with CKD are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- M K Tolbert
- University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville
| | - S Olin
- University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville
| | - S MacLane
- Appalachian Animal Hospital, Piney Flats, TN
| | - E Gould
- University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville
| | - J M Steiner
- Gastrointestinal Laboratory, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
| | - S Vaden
- North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Raleigh, NC
| | - J Price
- University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville
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Frieler K, Schauberger B, Arneth A, Balkovic J, Chryssanthacopoulos J, Deryng D, Elliott J, Folberth C, Khabarov N, Müller C, Olin S, Pugh TAM, Schaphoff S, Schewe J, Schmid E, Warszawski L, Levermann A. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. Earths Future 2017; 5:605-616. [PMID: 30377624 PMCID: PMC6204259 DOI: 10.1002/2016ef000525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the US. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katja Frieler
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Almut Arneth
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Juraj Balkovic
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
| | | | - Delphine Deryng
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
| | - Joshua Elliott
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- ANL Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | | | - Nikolay Khabarov
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | | | - Jacob Schewe
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Erwin Schmid
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
| | - Lila Warszawski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Anders Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, New York
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18
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Schmid S, Hodshon A, Olin S, Pfeiffer I, Hecht S. Pituitary Macrotumor Causing Narcolepsy-Cataplexy in a Dachshund. J Vet Intern Med 2017; 31:545-549. [PMID: 28090682 PMCID: PMC5354012 DOI: 10.1111/jvim.14640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2016] [Revised: 10/30/2016] [Accepted: 11/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Familial narcolepsy secondary to breed‐specific mutations in the hypocretin receptor 2 gene and sporadic narcolepsy associated with hypocretin ligand deficiencies occur in dogs. In this report, a pituitary mass is described as a unique cause of narcolepsy‐cataplexy in a dog. A 6‐year‐old male neutered Dachshund had presented for acute onset of feeding‐induced cataplexy and was found to have a pituitary macrotumor on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Cerebral spinal fluid hypocretin‐1 levels were normal, indicating that tumor effect on the ventral lateral nucleus of the hypothalamus was not the cause of the dog's narcolepsy‐cataplexy. The dog was also negative for the hypocretin receptor 2 gene mutation associated with narcolepsy in Dachshunds, ruling out familial narcolepsy. The Dachshund underwent stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT), which resulted in reduction in the mass and coincident resolution of the cataplectic attacks. Nine months after SRT, the dog developed clinical hyperadrenocorticism, which was successfully managed with trilostane. These findings suggest that disruptions in downstream signaling of hypocretin secondary to an intracranial mass effect might result in narcolepsy‐cataplexy in dogs and that brain MRI should be strongly considered in sporadic cases of narcolepsy‐cataplexy.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Schmid
- Department of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville, TN
| | - A Hodshon
- Department of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville, TN
| | - S Olin
- Department of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville, TN
| | - I Pfeiffer
- Department of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville, TN
| | - S Hecht
- Department of Small Animal Clinical Sciences, The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine, Knoxville, TN
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Pugh TAM, Müller C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Folberth C, Olin S, Schmid E, Arneth A. Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12608. [PMID: 27646707 PMCID: PMC5136618 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2016] [Accepted: 07/18/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. Simulations of the impact of future climate change on crop yield vary considerably. Here, the authors use a climate analogue approach to estimate the response of maximum attainable yield to climate change and predict that large shifts in land use and crop choice would be required to meet demand.
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Affiliation(s)
- T A M Pugh
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.,School of Geography, Earth &Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - C Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - J Elliott
- University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
| | - D Deryng
- University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.,Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA
| | - C Folberth
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.,Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333 Munich, Germany
| | - S Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - E Schmid
- Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - A Arneth
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Symons L, Weston R, Olin S. The Eye-direction Aftereffect shows complete interocular transfer and is not retinocentric. J Vis 2011. [DOI: 10.1167/11.11.1012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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21
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Dybing E, Farmer PB, Andersen M, Fennell TR, Lalljie SPD, Müller DJG, Olin S, Petersen BJ, Schlatter J, Scholz G, Scimeca JA, Slimani N, Törnqvist M, Tuijtelaars S, Verger P. Human exposure and internal dose assessments of acrylamide in food. Food Chem Toxicol 2005; 43:365-410. [PMID: 15680675 DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2004.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 280] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2004] [Accepted: 11/09/2004] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
This review provides a framework contributing to the risk assessment of acrylamide in food. It is based on the outcome of the ILSI Europe FOSIE process, a risk assessment framework for chemicals in foods and adds to the overall framework by focusing especially on exposure assessment and internal dose assessment of acrylamide in food. Since the finding that acrylamide is formed in food during heat processing and preparation of food, much effort has been (and still is being) put into understanding its mechanism of formation, on developing analytical methods and determination of levels in food, and on evaluation of its toxicity and potential toxicity and potential human health consequences. Although several exposure estimations have been proposed, a systematic review of key information relevant to exposure assessment is currently lacking. The European and North American branches of the International Life Sciences Institute, ILSI, discussed critical aspects of exposure assessment, parameters influencing the outcome of exposure assessment and summarised data relevant to the acrylamide exposure assessment to aid the risk characterisation process. This paper reviews the data on acrylamide levels in food including its formation and analytical methods, the determination of human consumption patterns, dietary intake of the general population, estimation of maximum intake levels and identification of groups of potentially high intakes. Possible options and consequences of mitigation efforts to reduce exposure are discussed. Furthermore the association of intake levels with biomarkers of exposure and internal dose, considering aspects of bioavailability, is reviewed, and a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model is described that provides a good description of the kinetics of acrylamide in the rat. Each of the sections concludes with a summary of remaining gaps and uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Dybing
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Division of Environmental Medicine, P.O. Box 4404, Nydalen, NO-0403 Oslo, Norway
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