Human disturbance in riparian areas disrupts predator-prey interactions between grizzly bears and salmon

Wildlife must increasingly balance trade-offs between the need to access important foods and the mortality risks associated with human-dominated landscapes. Human disturbance can profoundly influence wildlife behavior, but managers know little about the relationship between disturbance-behavior dynamics and associated consequences for foraging. We address this gap by empirically investigating the consequences of human activity on a keystone predator-prey interaction in a region with limited but varied industrial disturbance. Using stable isotope data from 226 hair samples of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) collected from 1995 to 2014 across 22 salmon-bearing watersheds (88,000 km2) in British Columbia, Canada, we examined how human activity influenced their consumption of spawning salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), a fitness-related food. Accounting for the abundance of salmon and other foods, salmon consumption strongly decreased (up to 59% for females) with increasing human disturbance (as measured by the human footprint index) in riparian zones of salmon-bearing rivers. Declines in salmon consumption occurred with disturbance even in watersheds with low footprints. In a region currently among the least influenced by industrial activity, intensification of disturbance in river valleys is predicted to increasingly decouple bears from salmon, possibly driving associated reductions in population productivity and provisioning of salmon nutrients to terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, we draw on our results to make landscape-scale and access-related management recommendations beyond current streamside protection buffers. This work illustrates the interaction between habitat modification and food security for wildlife, highlighting the potential for unacknowledged interactions and cumulative effects in increasingly modified landscapes.

A novel technique to identify midline during endoscopic thyroidectomy

ABSTRACT

Endoscopic thyroidectomy is a minimally invasive surgical approach that has become popular due to its cosmetic advantages and reduced post-operative discomfort. Central to the success of this procedure is the accurate identification of the midline, which becomes a challenge in endoscopic surgeries. We propose a novel method of using methylene blue, a Food and Drug Administration-approved dye, which offers the ability to clearly mark the midline, enhancing orientation and reducing the potential for injury to critical anatomical structures. Although using methylene blue has many benefits, there are drawbacks, including the requirement for intraoperative ultrasonography. Continued research and clinical experience will be critical in improving and extending its use in the field of thyroid surgery.

ChatGPT in medical imaging higher education

INTRODUCTION

Academic integrity among radiographers and nuclear medicine technologists/scientists in both higher education and scientific writing has been challenged by advances in artificial intelligence (AI). The recent release of ChatGPT, a chatbot powered by GPT-3.5 capable of producing accurate and human-like responses to questions in real-time, has redefined the boundaries of academic and scientific writing. These boundaries require objective evaluation.

METHOD

ChatGPT was tested against six subjects across the first three years of the medical radiation science undergraduate course for both exams (n = 6) and written assignment tasks (n = 3). ChatGPT submissions were marked against standardised rubrics and results compared to student cohorts. Submissions were also evaluated by Turnitin for similarity and AI scores.

RESULTS

ChatGPT powered by GPT-3.5 performed below the average student performance in all written tasks with an increasing disparity as subjects advanced. ChatGPT performed better than the average student in foundation or general subject examinations where shallow responses meet learning outcomes. For discipline specific subjects, ChatGPT lacked the depth, breadth, and currency of insight to provide pass level answers.

CONCLUSION

ChatGPT simultaneously poses a risk to academic integrity in writing and assessment while affording a tool for enhanced learning environments. These risks and benefits are likely to be restricted to learning outcomes of lower taxonomies. Both risks and benefits are likely to be constrained by higher order taxonomies.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

ChatGPT powered by GPT3.5 has limited capacity to support student cheating, introduces errors and fabricated information, and is readily identified by software as AI generated. Lack of depth of insight and appropriateness for professional communication also limits capacity as a learning enhancement tool.

Making Space in Geographical Analysis

In this commentary we reflect on the potential and power of geographical analysis, as a set of methods, theoretical approaches, and perspectives, to increase our understanding of how space and place matter for all. We emphasize key aspects of the field, including accessibility, urban change, and spatial interaction and behavior, providing a high-level research agenda that indicates a variety of gaps and routes for future research that will not only lead to more equitable and aware solutions to local and global challenges, but also innovative and novel research methods, concepts, and data. We close with a set of representation and inclusion challenges to our discipline, researchers, and publication outlets.

WalkRollMap.org: Crowdsourcing barriers to mobility

Walking is a simple way to improve health through physical activity. Yet many people experience barriers to walking from a variety of physical, social, and psychological factors that impact their mobility. A challenge for managing and studying pedestrian environments is that barriers often occur at local scales (e.g., sidewalk features), yet such fine scale data on pedestrian facilities and experiences are often lacking or out of date. In response, our team developed WalkRollMap.org an online mapping tool that empowers communities by providing them with tools for crowdsourcing their own open data source. In this manuscript we highlight key functions of the tool, discuss initial approaches to community outreach, and share trends in reporting from the first nine months of operation. As of July 27, 2022, there have been 897 reports, of which 53% served to identify hazards, 34% missing amenities, and 14% incidents. The most frequently reported issues were related to sidewalks (15%), driver behavior (19%), and marked crosswalks (7%). The most common suggested amenities were sidewalks, marked crosswalks, connections (i.e., pathways between streets), and curb cuts. The most common types of incidents all included conflicts with vehicles. Data compiled through WalkRollMap.org offer unique potential for local and timely information on microscale barriers to mobility and are available for use by anyone as data are open and downloadable.

Sentinel Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Rates and Equity Impacts using Labor and Delivery Patients in Phoenix, Arizona

Proactive management of SARS-CoV-2 requires timely and complete population data to track the evolution of the virus and identify at risk populations. However, many cases are asymptomatic and are not easily discovered through traditional testing efforts. Sentinel surveillance can be used to estimate the prevalence of infections for geographical areas but requires identification of sentinels who are representative of the larger population. Our goal is to evaluate applicability of a population of labor and delivery patients for sentinel surveillance system for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We tested 5307 labor and delivery patients from two hospitals in Phoenix, Arizona, finding 195 SARS-CoV-2 positive. Most positive cases were associated with people who were asymptomatic (79.44%), similar to statewide rates. Our results add to the growing body of evidence that SARS-CoV-2 disproportionately impacts people of color, with Black people having the highest positive rates (5.92%). People with private medical insurance had the lowest positive rates (2.53%), while Medicaid patients had a positive rate of 5.54% and people without insurance had the highest positive rates (6.12%). With diverse people reporting for care and being tested regardless of symptoms, labor and delivery patients may serve as ideal sentinels for asymptomatic detection of SARS-CoV-2 and monitoring impacts across a wide range of social and economic classes. A more robust system for infectious disease management requires the expanded participation of additional hospitals so that the sentinels are more representative of the population at large, reflecting geographic and neighborhood level patterns of infection and risk.

The Canadian Bikeway Comfort and Safety metrics (Can-BICS): National measures of the bicycling environment for use in research and policy

BACKGROUND

The lack of consistent measures of the cycling environment across communities hampers cycling research and policy action. Our goal was to develop the first national dataset in Canada for metrics of the cycling environment at the dissemination area (DA) level - the Canadian Bikeway Comfort and Safety (Can-BICS) metrics.

DATA AND METHODS

The Can-BICS metrics are area-level metrics based on the quantity of cycling infrastructure within a 1 km buffer of the population-weighted centroid of DAs. The base data are a national cycling network dataset derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM) (extracted January 25, 2022) and classified by high-, medium- and low-comfort facilities. A Can-BICS continuous metric (sum of cycling infrastructure per square kilometre weighted by comfort class) and Can-BICS categorical metric were derived and mapped for all 56,589 DAs in Canada. The Can-BICS metrics were correlated with other national datasets (2016 Canadian Active Living Environments [Can-ALE] and 2016 Census journey-to-work data) to test for associations between Can-BICS and related measures. Additionally, city staff were engaged to provide feedback on metrics during the development phase.

RESULTS

One-third (34%) of neighbourhoods in Canada have no cycling infrastructure. According to the categorical measure, 5% of all DAs were assigned as the highest category of Can-BICS (corresponding to 6% of the population) and were nearly all within metro areas. The Can-BICS continuous metric had low correlation with bike-to-work rates (R = 0.29) and was more strongly correlated with sustainable-transportation-to-work rates (R = 0.56) and the Can-ALE metrics (R=0.62). These correlations were variable across cities.

INTERPRETATION

The Can-BICS metrics provide national research- and practice-ready measures of cycling infrastructure. The metrics complement existing measures of walking and transit environments (Can-ALE), collectively providing a cohesive set of active living measures. The datasets and code are publicly available, facilitating updates as new infrastructure is built.

Riding through the pandemic: Using Strava data to monitor the impacts of COVID-19 on spatial patterns of bicycling

COVID-19 prompted a bike boom and cities around the world responded to increased demand for space to ride with street reallocations. Evaluating these interventions has been limited by a lack of spatially-temporally continuous ridership data. Our paper aims to address this gap using crowdsourced data on bicycle ridership. We evaluate changes in spatial patterns of bicycling during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr - Oct 2020) in Vancouver, Canada using Strava data and a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation. We map statistically significant change in ridership and reference clusters of change to a high-resolution base map. Amongst streets where bicycling increased, we measured the proportion of increase occurring on pre-existing bicycle facilities or street reallocations compared to streets without. In all our analyses, we evaluate patterns across subsets of Strava data representing recreation, commuting, and ridership generated by women and older adults (55 + ). We found consistent and unique patterns by trip purpose and demographics: samples generated by women and older adults showed increases near green and blue spaces and on street reallocations that increased access to parks, and these patterns were also mirrored in the recreation sample. Commute ridership highlighted distinct patterns of increase around the hospital district. Across all subsets most increases occurred on bicycle facilities (pre-existing or provisional), with a strong preference for high-comfort facilities. We demonstrate that changes in spatial patterns of bicycle ridership can be monitored using Strava data, and that nuanced patterns can be identified using trip and demographic labels in the data.

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 decontamination by dry heat and ultraviolet treatment with a swine coronavirus as a surrogate

The critical need for reliable methods to validate decontamination protocols for personal protective equipment (PPE) for re-use during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is limited by the need for specialized containment facilities to handle the virus. Hence, we have herein validated the use of a swine coronavirus as a surrogate, and tested the effectiveness of dry heat and ultraviolet (UV) rays for PPE decontamination. Exposure of experimentally contaminated N95 masks and hospital gowns to 60°C for 20 min, and UVC at 1800 mJ/cm² resulted in a 4-log reduction and inactivation of the surrogate virus. This study provides a novel alternative to validate PPE reprocessing methods.

O30: EVALUATION OF AXILLARY LYMPH NODE METASTATIC BURDEN BY PREOPERATIVE ULTRASOUND

Introduction

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is the gold standard for determining axillary nodal status. There is growing interest in using preoperative axillary ultrasound (AUS) as a non-invasive means of assessing the axilla. However, AUS has limited sensitivity and is subject to operator dependency. This study aimed to quantify axillary nodal burden in preoperative AUS.

Method

This retrospective study used an institutional database of all primary invasive breast carcinomas from 2006–2019. Those with pathologically proven axillary metastatic disease were included. Patients were considered in two groups, low nodal burden/LNB(1-2LN) and high nodal burden/HNB(≥3LN) based on total positive lymph node count(SLNB+ALND). Preoperative AUS reports were assessed to determine those suspicious for axillary metastasis.

Result

Of the 347 patients (n=349 axillae), 77.9% had LNB and 22.1% had HNB. In patients with LNB, 228(83.8%) had a normal AUS versus 44(16.2%) suspicious AUS. In those with HNB 60(77.9%) had normal AUS findings versus 17(22.1%) suspicious findings. On multivariate analysis Nottingham Grade-3 was associated with suspicious AUS findings (p=0.02). However, receptor status, SLN macro-metastasis and extra-nodal extension were not associated with abnormal AUS.

Conclusion

As the surgical approach to the axilla becomes increasingly conservative, detection of axillary involvement by non-invasive means is an area of increasing research. In this cohort, AUS did not reliably identify patients with axillary metastasis. These results highlight the challenges in accurately assessing the axilla using preoperative AUS, which may result in axillary undertreatment if used as an alternative to surgical staging.

Take-home message

As the surgical approach to the axilla becomes increasingly conservative, detection of axillary involvement by non-invasive means is an area of increasing research. This study highlights the challenges in accurately assessing the axilla using preoperative AUS, which may result in axillary undertreatment if used as an alternative to surgical staging.

COVID-19 healthcare demand projections: Arizona

Beginning in March 2020, the United States emerged as the global epicenter for COVID-19 cases with little to guide policy response in the absence of extensive data available for reliable epidemiological modeling in the early phases of the pandemic. In the ensuing weeks, American jurisdictions attempted to manage disease spread on a regional basis using non-pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., social distancing), as uneven disease burden across the expansive geography of the United States exerted different implications for policy management in different regions. While Arizona policymakers relied initially on state-by-state national modeling projections from different groups outside of the state, we sought to create a state-specific model using a mathematical framework that ties disease surveillance with the future burden on Arizona's healthcare system. Our framework uses a compartmental system dynamics model using a SEIRD framework that accounts for multiple types of disease manifestations for the COVID-19 infection, as well as the observed time delay in epidemiological findings following public policy enactments. We use a compartment initialization logic coupled with a fitting technique to construct projections for key metrics to guide public health policy, including exposures, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths under a variety of social reopening scenarios. Our approach makes use of X-factor fitting and backcasting methods to construct meaningful and reliable models with minimal available data in order to provide timely policy guidance in the early phases of a pandemic.

What does crowdsourced data tell us about bicycling injury? A case study in a mid-sized Canadian city

With only ∼20 % of bicycling crashes captured in official databases, studies on bicycling safety can be limited. New datasets on bicycling incidents are available via crowdsourcing applications, with opportunity for analyses that characterize reporting patterns. Our goal was to characterize patterns of injury in crowdsourced bicycle incident reports from BikeMaps.org. We extracted 281 incidents reported on the BikeMaps.org global mapping platform and analyzed 21 explanatory variables representing personal, trip, route, and crash characteristics. We used a balanced random forest classifier to classify three outcomes: (i) collisions resulting in injury requiring medical treatment; (ii) collisions resulting in injury but the bicyclist did not seek medical treatment; and (iii) collisions that did not result in injury. Results indicate the ranked importance and direction of relationship for explanatory variables. By knowing conditions that are most associated with injury we can target interventions to reduce future risk. The most important reporting pattern overall was the type of object the bicyclist collided with. Increased probability of injury requiring medical treatment was associated with collisions with animals, train tracks, transient hazards, and left-turning motor vehicles. Falls, right hooks, and doorings were associated with incidents where the bicyclist was injured but did not seek medical treatment, and conflicts with pedestrians and passing motor vehicles were associated with minor collisions with no injuries. In Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, bicycling safety would be improved by additional infrastructure to support safe left turns and around train tracks. Our findings support previous research using hospital admissions data that demonstrate how non-motor vehicle crashes can lead to bicyclist injury and that route characteristics and conditions are factors in bicycling collisions. Crowdsourced data have potential to fill gaps in official data such as insurance, police, and hospital reports.

Cosmic-ray antinuclei as messengers of new physics: status and outlook for the new decade

The precise measurement of cosmic-ray antinuclei serves as an important means for identifying the nature of dark matter and other new astrophysical phenomena, and could be used with other cosmic-ray species to understand cosmic-ray production and propagation in the Galaxy. For instance, low-energy antideuterons would provide a "smoking gun" signature of dark matter annihilation or decay, essentially free of astrophysical background. Studies in recent years have emphasized that models for cosmic-ray antideuterons must be considered together with the abundant cosmic antiprotons and any potential observation of antihelium. Therefore, a second dedicated Antideuteron Workshop was organized at UCLA in March 2019, bringing together a community of theorists and experimentalists to review the status of current observations of cosmic-ray antinuclei, the theoretical work towards understanding these signatures, and the potential of upcoming measurements to illuminate ongoing controversies. This review aims to synthesize this recent work and present implications for the upcoming decade of antinuclei observations and searches. This includes discussion of a possible dark matter signature in the AMS-02 antiproton spectrum, the most recent limits from BESS Polar-II on the cosmic antideuteron flux, and reports of candidate antihelium events by AMS-02; recent collider and cosmic-ray measurements relevant for antinuclei production models; the state of cosmic-ray transport models in light of AMS-02 and Voyager data; and the prospects for upcoming experiments, such as GAPS. This provides a roadmap for progress on cosmic antinuclei signatures of dark matter in the coming years.

Interannual comparison of core taxa and community composition of the blow microbiota from East Australian humpback whales

Cetacean represent vulnerable species impacted by multiple stressors, including reduction in prey species, habitat destruction, whaling and infectious disease. The composition of blow microbiota has been claimed to provide a promising tool for non-invasive health monitoring aiming to inform conservation management. Still, little is known about the temporal stability and composition of blow microbiota in whales. We used East Australian humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as a model species and collected blow and control samples in August 2016 and 2017 for an interannual comparison. We analysed the blow by barcode tag sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene. We found that the microbial communities in 2016 and 2017 were statistically similar regarding alpha and beta diversity but distinct to seawater. Zero-radius operational taxonomic units (zOTUs) shared by both groups accounted for about 50% of all zOTUs present. Still, the large individual variability in the blow microbiota resulted in a small number of core taxa (defined as present in at least 60% of whales). We conclude that the blow microbiota of humpback whales is either generally limited and of transient nature or the reduced airway microbiota is the symptom of a compromised physiological state potentially due to the challenges of the whales' annual migration.

Cyclist crash rates and risk factors in a prospective cohort in seven European cities

Increased cycling uptake can improve population health, but barriers include real and perceived risks. Crash risk factors are important to understand in order to improve safety and increase cycling uptake. Many studies of cycling crash risk are based on combining diverse sources of crash and exposure data, such as police databases (crashes) and travel surveys (exposure), based on shared geography and time. When conflating crash and exposure data from different sources, the risk factors that can be quantified are only those variables common to both datasets, which tend to be limited to geography (e.g. countries, provinces, municipalities) and a few general road user characteristics (e.g. gender and age strata). The Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches (PASTA) project was a prospective cohort study that collected both crash and exposure data from seven European cities (Antwerp, Barcelona, London, Örebro, Rome, Vienna and Zürich). The goal of this research was to use data from the PASTA project to quantify exposure-adjusted crash rates and model adjusted crash risk factors, including detailed sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes about transportation, neighbourhood built environment features and location by city. We used negative binomial regression to model the influence of risk factors independent of exposure. Of the 4,180 cyclists, 10.2 % reported 535 crashes. We found that overall crash rates were 6.7 times higher in London, the city with the highest crash rate, relative to Örebro, the city with the lowest rate. Differences in overall crash rates between cities are driven largely by crashes that did not require medical treatment and that involved motor-vehicles. In a parsimonious crash risk model, we found higher crash risks for less frequent cyclists, men, those who perceive cycling to not be well regarded in their neighbourhood, and those who live in areas of very high building density. Longitudinal collection of crash and exposure data can provide important insights into individual differences in crash risk. Substantial differences in crash risks between cities, neighbourhoods and population groups suggest there is great potential for improvement in cycling safety.

TECRA Listeria Visual Immunoassay (TLVIA) for Detection of Listeria in Foods: Collaborative Study

A collaborative study involving 26 laboratories and 5 food types was performed to compare the TECRA Listeria Visual Immunoassay (TLVIA) with standard culture methods. Three foods (lettuce, ice cream, and fish fillets), under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and 2 foods (cooked chicken and cooked ground turkey), under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, were used to determine the effectiveness of the TLVIA. Of the 900 samples tested, 300 were inoculated with low levels (1-5 cells/25 g) of Listeria spp. and 300 were inoculated with high levels of Listeria spp. (10-50 cells/25 g). Method agreement between the conventional culture methods and TLVIA (visual) was 94.7%. Method agreement between the conventional culture methods and TLVIA (reader) was 93.6%. The colorimetric polyclonal enzyme immunoassay (TLVIA) for detection of Listeria in foods has been adopted first action by AOAC INTERNATIONAL.

Relative Effectiveness of Selenite Cystine Broth, Tetrathionate Broth, and Rappaport-Vassiliadis Medium for Recovery of Salmonella spp. from Raw Flesh, Highly Contaminated Foods, and Poultry Feed: Collaborative Study

A collaborative study was performed in 18 laboratories to validate use of Rappaport-Vassiliadis (RV) medium in the standard culture method for recovery of Salmonella spp. from raw, highly contaminated foods and poultry feed. RV medium made from its individual ingredients and incubated at 42�C was compared with selenite cystine (SC) broth incubated at 35�C and tetrathionate (TT) broth incubated at 35� and 43�C for effectiveness in recovery of Salmonella spp. Four artificially contaminated foods (oysters, frog legs, mushrooms, and shrimp) and poultry feed and one naturally contaminated food (chicken) were analyzed. The artificially contaminated foods were inoculated with single serovars of Salmonella at target levels of 0.04 colony-forming units (CFU)/g for the low level and 0.4 CFU/g for the high level. For analysis of 1125 test portions, RV medium (42�C) recovered Salmonellairom 409 test portions; TT (43�C), from 368 test portions; TT (35�C), from 310 test portions; and SC (35�C), from 334 test portions. Overall, RV medium was comparable with or better than other selective enrichments for recovery of Salmonella from the foods in this study, except mushrooms. From mushrooms, SC broth (35�C) recovered more positive test portions than did RV medium (42�C) and TT broth (43�C). The method for detection of Salmonella in raw, highly contaminated foods and

Properties of Cosmic Helium Isotopes Measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

Precision measurements by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) on the International Space Station of ^{3}He and ^{4}He fluxes are presented. The measurements are based on 100 million ^{4}He nuclei in the rigidity range from 2.1 to 21 GV and 18 million ^{3}He from 1.9 to 15 GV collected from May 2011 to November 2017. We observed that the ^{3}He and ^{4}He fluxes exhibit nearly identical variations with time. The relative magnitude of the variations decreases with increasing rigidity. The rigidity dependence of the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio is measured for the first time. Below 4 GV, the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio was found to have a significant long-term time dependence. Above 4 GV, the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio was found to be time independent, and its rigidity dependence is well described by a single power law ∝R^{Δ} with Δ=-0.294±0.004. Unexpectedly, this value is in agreement with the B/O and B/C spectral indices at high energies.

Towards Understanding the Origin of Cosmic-Ray Electrons

Precision results on cosmic-ray electrons are presented in the energy range from 0.5 GeV to 1.4 TeV based on 28.1×10^{6} electrons collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station. In the entire energy range the electron and positron spectra have distinctly different magnitudes and energy dependences. The electron flux exhibits a significant excess starting from 42.1_{-5.2}^{+5.4}  GeV compared to the lower energy trends, but the nature of this excess is different from the positron flux excess above 25.2±1.8  GeV. Contrary to the positron flux, which has an exponential energy cutoff of 810_{-180}^{+310}  GeV, at the 5σ level the electron flux does not have an energy cutoff below 1.9 TeV. In the entire energy range the electron flux is well described by the sum of two power law components. The different behavior of the cosmic-ray electrons and positrons measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer is clear evidence that most high energy electrons originate from different sources than high energy positrons.

Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

Towards Understanding the Origin of Cosmic-Ray Positrons

Precision measurements of cosmic ray positrons are presented up to 1 TeV based on 1.9 million positrons collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station. The positron flux exhibits complex energy dependence. Its distinctive properties are (a) a significant excess starting from 25.2±1.8  GeV compared to the lower-energy, power-law trend, (b) a sharp dropoff above 284_{-64}^{+91}  GeV, (c) in the entire energy range the positron flux is well described by the sum of a term associated with the positrons produced in the collision of cosmic rays, which dominates at low energies, and a new source term of positrons, which dominates at high energies, and (d) a finite energy cutoff of the source term of E_{s}=810_{-180}^{+310}  GeV is established with a significance of more than 4σ. These experimental data on cosmic ray positrons show that, at high energies, they predominantly originate either from dark matter annihilation or from other astrophysical sources.

INTERACT: A comprehensive approach to assess urban form interventions through natural experiments

BACKGROUND

Urban form interventions can result in positive and negative impacts on physical activity, social participation, and well-being, and inequities in these outcomes. Natural experiment studies can advance our understanding of causal effects and processes related to urban form interventions. The INTErventions, Research, and Action in Cities Team (INTERACT) is a pan-Canadian collaboration of interdisciplinary scientists, urban planners, and public health decision makers advancing research on the design of healthy and sustainable cities for all. Our objectives are to use natural experiment studies to deliver timely evidence about how urban form interventions influence health, and to develop methods and tools to facilitate such studies going forward.

METHODS

INTERACT will evaluate natural experiments in four Canadian cities: the Arbutus Greenway in Vancouver, British Columbia; the All Ages and Abilities Cycling Network in Victoria, BC; a new Bus Rapid Transit system in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan; and components of the Sustainable Development Plan 2016-2020 in Montreal, Quebec, a plan that includes urban form changes initiated by the city and approximately 230 partnering organizations. We will recruit a cohort of between 300 and 3000 adult participants, age 18 or older, in each city and collect data at three time points. Participants will complete health and activity space surveys and provide sensor-based location and physical activity data. We will conduct qualitative interviews with a subsample of participants in each city. Our analysis methods will combine machine learning methods for detecting transportation mode use and physical activity, use temporal Geographic Information Systems to quantify changes to urban intervention exposure, and apply analytic methods for natural experiment studies including interrupted time series analysis.

DISCUSSION

INTERACT aims to advance the evidence base on population health intervention research and address challenges related to big data, knowledge mobilization and engagement, ethics, and causality. We will collect ~ 100 TB of sensor data from participants over 5 years. We will address these challenges using interdisciplinary partnerships, training of highly qualified personnel, and modern methodologies for using sensor-based data.

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Observation of Complex Time Structures in the Cosmic-Ray Electron and Positron Fluxes with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We present high-statistics, precision measurements of the detailed time and energy dependence of the primary cosmic-ray electron flux and positron flux over 79 Bartels rotations from May 2011 to May 2017 in the energy range from 1 to 50 GeV. For the first time, the charge-sign dependent modulation during solar maximum has been investigated in detail by leptons alone. Based on 23.5×10^{6} events, we report the observation of short-term structures on the timescale of months coincident in both the electron flux and the positron flux. These structures are not visible in the e^{+}/e^{-} flux ratio. The precision measurements across the solar polarity reversal show that the ratio exhibits a smooth transition over 830±30 days from one value to another. The midpoint of the transition shows an energy dependent delay relative to the reversal and changes by 260±30 days from 1 to 6 GeV.

Precision Measurement of Cosmic-Ray Nitrogen and its Primary and Secondary Components with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

A precision measurement of the nitrogen flux with rigidity (momentum per unit charge) from 2.2 GV to 3.3 TV based on 2.2×10^{6} events is presented. The detailed rigidity dependence of the nitrogen flux spectral index is presented for the first time. The spectral index rapidly hardens at high rigidities and becomes identical to the spectral indices of primary He, C, and O cosmic rays above ∼700  GV. We observed that the nitrogen flux Φ_{N} can be presented as the sum of its primary component Φ_{N}^{P} and secondary component Φ_{N}^{S}, Φ_{N}=Φ_{N}^{P}+Φ_{N}^{S}, and we found Φ_{N} is well described by the weighted sum of the oxygen flux Φ_{O} (primary cosmic rays) and the boron flux Φ_{B} (secondary cosmic rays), with Φ_{N}^{P}=(0.090±0.002)×Φ_{O} and Φ_{N}^{S}=(0.62±0.02)×Φ_{B} over the entire rigidity range. This corresponds to a change of the contribution of the secondary cosmic ray component in the nitrogen flux from 70% at a few GV to <30% above 1 TV.

Observation of Fine Time Structures in the Cosmic Proton and Helium Fluxes with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We present the precision measurement from May 2011 to May 2017 (79 Bartels rotations) of the proton fluxes at rigidities from 1 to 60 GV and the helium fluxes from 1.9 to 60 GV based on a total of 1×10^{9} events collected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer aboard the International Space Station. This measurement is in solar cycle 24, which has the solar maximum in April 2014. We observed that, below 40 GV, the proton flux and the helium flux show nearly identical fine structures in both time and relative amplitude. The amplitudes of the flux structures decrease with increasing rigidity and vanish above 40 GV. The amplitudes of the structures are reduced during the time period, which started one year after solar maximum, when the proton and helium fluxes steadily increase. Above ∼3  GV the p/He flux ratio is time independent. We observed that below ∼3  GV the ratio has a long-term decrease coinciding with the period during which the fluxes start to rise.

Monitoring city wide patterns of cycling safety

Many cities are making significant financial investments in cycling infrastructure with the aim of making cycling safer for riders of all ages and abilities. Methods for evaluating cycling safety tend to summarize average change for a city or emphasize change on a single road segment. Few spatially explicit approaches are available to evaluate how patterns of safety change throughout a city due to cycling infrastructure investments or other changes. Our goal is to demonstrate a method for monitoring changes in the spatial-temporal distribution of cycling incidents across a city. Using cycling incident data provided by the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, we first compare planar versus network constrained kernel density estimation for visualizing incident intensity across the street network of Vancouver, Canada. Second, we apply a change detection algorithm explicitly designed for detecting statistically significant change in kernel density estimates. The utility of network kernel density change detection is demonstrated through the comparison of cycling incident densities following the construction of two cycle tracks in the downtown core of Vancouver. The methods developed and demonstrated for this study provide city planners, transportation engineers and researchers a means of monitoring city-wide change in the intensity of cycling incidents following enhancements to cycling infrastructure or other significant changes to the transportation network.

Impacts of Bicycle Infrastructure in Mid-Sized Cities (IBIMS): protocol for a natural experiment study in three Canadian cities

INTRODUCTION

Bicycling is promoted as a transportation and population health strategy globally. Yet bicycling has low uptake in North America (1%-2% of trips) compared with European bicycling cities (15%-40% of trips) and shows marked sex and age trends. Safety concerns due to collisions with motor vehicles are primary barriers.To attract the broader population to bicycling, many cities are making investments in bicycle infrastructure. These interventions hold promise for improving population health given the potential for increased physical activity and improved safety, but such outcomes have been largely unstudied. In 2016, the City of Victoria, Canada, committed to build a connected network of infrastructure that separates bicycles from motor vehicles, designed to attract people of 'all ages and abilities' to bicycling.This natural experiment study examines the impacts of the City of Victoria's investment in a bicycle network on active travel and safety outcomes. The specific objectives are to (1) estimate changes in active travel, perceived safety and bicycle safety incidents; (2) analyse spatial inequities in access to bicycle infrastructure and safety incidents; and (3) assess health-related economic benefits.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is in three Canadian cities (intervention: Victoria; comparison: Kelowna, Halifax). We will administer population-based surveys in 2016, 2018 and 2021 (1000 people/city). The primary outcome is the proportion of people reporting bicycling. Secondary outcomes are perceived safety and bicycle safety incidents. Spatial analyses will compare the distribution of bicycle infrastructure and bicycle safety incidents across neighbourhoods and across time. We will also calculate the economic benefits of bicycling using WHO's Health Economic Assessment Tool.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received approval from the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics (study no. 2016s0401). Findings will be disseminated via a website, presentations to stakeholders, at academic conferences and through peer-reviewed journal articles.

Observation of New Properties of Secondary Cosmic Rays Lithium, Beryllium, and Boron by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We report on the observation of new properties of secondary cosmic rays Li, Be, and B measured in the rigidity (momentum per unit charge) range 1.9 GV to 3.3 TV with a total of 5.4×10^{6} nuclei collected by AMS during the first five years of operation aboard the International Space Station. The Li and B fluxes have an identical rigidity dependence above 7 GV and all three fluxes have an identical rigidity dependence above 30 GV with the Li/Be flux ratio of 2.0±0.1. The three fluxes deviate from a single power law above 200 GV in an identical way. This behavior of secondary cosmic rays has also been observed in the AMS measurement of primary cosmic rays He, C, and O but the rigidity dependences of primary cosmic rays and of secondary cosmic rays are distinctly different. In particular, above 200 GV, the secondary cosmic rays harden more than the primary cosmic rays.

Observation of the Identical Rigidity Dependence of He, C, and O Cosmic Rays at High Rigidities by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

We report the observation of new properties of primary cosmic rays He, C, and O measured in the rigidity (momentum/charge) range 2 GV to 3 TV with 90×10^{6} helium, 8.4×10^{6} carbon, and 7.0×10^{6} oxygen nuclei collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) during the first five years of operation. Above 60 GV, these three spectra have identical rigidity dependence. They all deviate from a single power law above 200 GV and harden in an identical way.

Precision Measurement of the Boron to Carbon Flux Ratio in Cosmic Rays from 1.9 GV to 2.6 TV with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

Knowledge of the rigidity dependence of the boron to carbon flux ratio (B/C) is important in understanding the propagation of cosmic rays. The precise measurement of the B/C ratio from 1.9 GV to 2.6 TV, based on 2.3 million boron and 8.3 million carbon nuclei collected by AMS during the first 5 years of operation, is presented. The detailed variation with rigidity of the B/C spectral index is reported for the first time. The B/C ratio does not show any significant structures in contrast to many cosmic ray models that require such structures at high rigidities. Remarkably, above 65 GV, the B/C ratio is well described by a single power law R^{Δ} with index Δ=-0.333±0.014(fit)±0.005(syst), in good agreement with the Kolmogorov theory of turbulence which predicts Δ=-1/3 asymptotically.

Antiproton Flux, Antiproton-to-Proton Flux Ratio, and Properties of Elementary Particle Fluxes in Primary Cosmic Rays Measured with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

A precision measurement by AMS of the antiproton flux and the antiproton-to-proton flux ratio in primary cosmic rays in the absolute rigidity range from 1 to 450 GV is presented based on 3.49×10^{5} antiproton events and 2.42×10^{9} proton events. The fluxes and flux ratios of charged elementary particles in cosmic rays are also presented. In the absolute rigidity range ∼60 to ∼500  GV, the antiproton p[over ¯], proton p, and positron e^{+} fluxes are found to have nearly identical rigidity dependence and the electron e^{-} flux exhibits a different rigidity dependence. Below 60 GV, the (p[over ¯]/p), (p[over ¯]/e^{+}), and (p/e^{+}) flux ratios each reaches a maximum. From ∼60 to ∼500  GV, the (p[over ¯]/p), (p[over ¯]/e^{+}), and (p/e^{+}) flux ratios show no rigidity dependence. These are new observations of the properties of elementary particles in the cosmos.

Precision Measurement of the Helium Flux in Primary Cosmic Rays of Rigidities 1.9 GV to 3 TV with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station

Knowledge of the precise rigidity dependence of the helium flux is important in understanding the origin, acceleration, and propagation of cosmic rays. A precise measurement of the helium flux in primary cosmic rays with rigidity (momentum/charge) from 1.9 GV to 3 TV based on 50 million events is presented and compared to the proton flux. The detailed variation with rigidity of the helium flux spectral index is presented for the first time. The spectral index progressively hardens at rigidities larger than 100 GV. The rigidity dependence of the helium flux spectral index is similar to that of the proton spectral index though the magnitudes are different. Remarkably, the spectral index of the proton to helium flux ratio increases with rigidity up to 45 GV and then becomes constant; the flux ratio above 45 GV is well described by a single power law.

Providing Access to Genomic Variant Knowledge in a Healthcare Setting: A Vision for the ClinGen Electronic Health Records Workgroup

The Clinical Genome Resource (ClinGen) is a National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded collaborative program that brings together a variety of projects designed to provide high-quality, curated information on clinically relevant genes and variants. ClinGen's EHR (Electronic Health Record) Workgroup aims to ensure that ClinGen is accessible to providers and patients through EHR and related systems. This article describes the current scope of these efforts and progress to date. The ClinGen public portal can be accessed at www.clinicalgenome.org.

The role of computerised tomography in predicting visual outcome in ocular trauma patients

PURPOSE

Ocular blast injuries in the military setting are particularly associated with significant maxillofacial trauma and/or brain injury. The opportunity to perform a comprehensive ophthalmic evaluation is frequently limited in the acute multiple trauma scenario. We aim to describe the relationship between the clinical effects of acute ocular and orbital blast trauma with the findings on computerised tomography (CT).

METHODS

This was a retrospective consecutive case series of all soldiers with facial and/or suspected ocular injuries. A total of 80 eyes that had suffered blast injuries of varying severity were studied. Assessment of orbital and ocular CT images were performed by military consultant radiologists. A comparison was made with actual clinical findings. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

No pathological findings were described in 37 of the 80 eyes imaged by orbital and ocular CT scans. Clinically, these eyes and orbits were all found to be intact, or had minor trauma. All foreign bodies and penetrating eye injuries were successfully diagnosed by CT. Absence of an orbital fracture did not rule out a globe injury. However, a corneal or scleral defect was less likely when an orbital fracture was absent.

CONCLUSION

The eye is a delicate structure prone to injury that requires urgent repair if breached. It is difficult to assess thoroughly in the unconscious or distressed patient. In this context, CT imaging is invaluable to be able to make a relatively confident prediction of clinical findings and decide upon the necessity for acute ophthalmic surgical intervention.