Correction: Prevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in an informal settlement in Karachi, Pakistan

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002076.].

Prevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in an informal settlement in Karachi, Pakistan

The burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Pakistan is amongst the highest in the world. People living in slums are likely to be at high risk of infection. Here, we describe the results of a cross-sectional survey conducted in March 2022 that aimed to quantify the prevalence of HCV infection in Machar Colony, one of the largest and oldest slum settlements in Karachi. Risk factors for HCV seropositivity were identified using multi-level logistic regression. We recruited 1,303 individuals in a random selection of 441 households from Machar Colony. The survey-adjusted HCV-seroprevalence was 13.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 11.1-15.8) and survey-adjusted viraemic prevalence was 4.1% (95% CI 3.1-5.4) with a viraemic ratio of 32% (95% CI 24.3-40.5). Of 162 seropositive people, 71 (44%) reported receiving previous treatment for chronic hepatitis C. The odds of HCV seropositivity were found to increase with each additional reported therapeutic injection in the past 12 months (OR = 1.07 (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 1.00-1.13)). We found weaker evidence for a positive association between HCV seropositivity and a reported history of receiving a blood transfusion (OR = 1.72 (95% CrI 0.90-3.21)). The seroprevalence was more than double the previously reported seroprevalence in Sindh Province. The overall proportion of seropositive people that were viraemic was lower than expected. This may reflect the long-term impacts of a non-governmental clinic providing free of cost and easily accessible hepatitis C diagnosis and treatment to the population since 2015. Reuse of needles and syringes is likely to be an important driver of HCV transmission in this setting. Future public health interventions should address the expected risks associated with iatrogenic HCV transmission in this community.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever among peri-urban dairy cattle in northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Human and animal cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF) are typically only reported during large outbreaks. The occurrence of RVF cases that go undetected by national surveillance systems in the period between these outbreaks is considered likely. The last reported cases of RVF in Tanzania occurred during a large outbreak in 2007-2008.

METHODS

Samples collected between 2017 and 2019 from livestock suffering abortion across northern Tanzania were retrospectively tested for evidence of RVF virus infection using serology and reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR).

RESULTS

A total of 14 RVF-associated cattle abortions were identified among dairy cattle in a peri-urban area surrounding the town of Moshi. RVF cases occurred from May to August 2018 and were considered to represent an undetected, small-scale RVF outbreak. Milk samples from 3 of 14 cases (21%) were found to be RT-qPCR positive. Genotyping revealed circulation of RVF viruses from two distinct lineages.

CONCLUSIONS

RVF outbreaks can occur more often in endemic settings than would be expected on the basis of detection by national surveillance. The occurrence of RVF cases among peri-urban dairy cattle and evidence for viral shedding in milk, also highlights potentially emerging risks for RVF associated with increasing urban and peri-urban livestock populations.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

Cystic echinococcosis in northern Tanzania: a pilot study in Maasai livestock-keeping communities

Background

There are close similarities between the life-cycles of Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato (E. granulosus s.l.) that causes cystic echinococcosis (CE) in humans and Taenia multiceps/Coenurus cerebralis that causes cerebral coenurosis in small ruminants. Recent evidence highlights that livestock in Maasai communities of northern Tanzania are suffering from increases in the prevalence of cerebral coenurosis, leading to concerns about a possible concurrent increased risk of human CE. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of human abdominal CE and the prevalence and species/genotypes of E. granulosus s.l. in livestock in Maasai communities.

Methods

Human CE was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound on volunteers aged ≥ 7 years in five villages in the Longido and Ngorongoro Districts in northern Tanzania. Infection in ruminants was evaluated through inspection in local abattoirs, followed by molecular identification of one cyst per animal, with a priority for hepatic cysts, using PCR targeting of the cytochrome c oxidase I gene (COX1), followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism and multiplex PCR, and sequencing of non-E. granulosus s.l. samples.

Results

Ultrasound was performed on 823 volunteers (n = 352 in two villages in Longido District, and n = 471 in three villages of Ngorongoro). Hepatic CE cases were diagnosed only in Ngorongoro (n = 6; 1.3%), of which three had active cysts. Village-level prevalence of CE ranged between 0 and 2.4%. Of the 697 ruminants inspected, 34.4% had parasitic cysts. Molecular identification was achieved for 140 of the 219 (63.9%) cysts sampled. E. granulosus s.l. and T. hydatigena/Cysticercus tenuicollis were identified in 51.4% and 48.6%, respectively, of livestock cysts. E. granulosus s.l. was identified in livestock from both Longido (35.3% of 116 genotyped cysts) and Ngorongoro (91.2% of 34 genotyped cysts). Of the total of 72 E. granuslosus s.l. cysts identified in livestock, 87.5% were E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1–G3 genotypes), 9.7% were E. ortleppi (G5) and one cyst was E. canadensis (G6–10). The three active human cysts, which were removed surgically, were G1–G3 genotypes.

Conclusions

Multiple species/genotypes of E. granulosus s.l. are circulating in Maasai communities of northern Tanzania. Human CE was detected in villages of Ngorongoro District and a high prevalence of echinococcal cysts was observed in livestock in both districts. More precise estimation of the prevalence in this area and a better understanding of the specific risk factors for CE among Maasai communities in northern Tanzania is needed. Interventions targeting transmission routes common to both E. granulosus s.l. and T. multiceps would have dual benefits for preventing both human and livestock disease.

Graphical Abstract

Prospective cohort study reveals unexpected aetiologies of livestock abortion in northern Tanzania

Livestock abortion is an important cause of productivity losses worldwide and many infectious causes of abortion are zoonotic pathogens that impact on human health. Little is known about the relative importance of infectious causes of livestock abortion in Africa, including in subsistence farming communities that are critically dependent on livestock for food, income, and wellbeing. We conducted a prospective cohort study of livestock abortion, supported by cross-sectional serosurveillance, to determine aetiologies of livestock abortions in livestock in Tanzania. This approach generated several important findings including detection of a Rift Valley fever virus outbreak in cattle; high prevalence of C. burnetii infection in livestock; and the first report of Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii, and pestiviruses associated with livestock abortion in Tanzania. Our approach provides a model for abortion surveillance in resource-limited settings. Our findings add substantially to current knowledge in sub-Saharan Africa, providing important evidence from which to prioritise disease interventions.

"He Who Relies on His Brother's Property Dies Poor": The Complex Narratives of Livestock Care in Northern Tanzania

Background: Endemic zoonoses have important impacts for livestock-dependent households in East Africa. In these communities, people's health and livelihoods are severely affected by livestock disease losses. Understanding how livestock keepers undertake remedial actions for livestock illness has the potential for widespread benefits such as improving health interventions. Yet, studies about livestock and human health behaviours in the global south tend to focus on individual health choices. In reality, health behaviours are complex, and not solely about individualised health experiences. Rather, they are mediated by a range of “upstream” factors (such as unequal provision of services), which are beyond the control of the individual.

Methods: This paper presents qualitative research conducted from 2014 to 2019 for a study focused on the Social, Economic, and Environmental Drivers of Zoonoses in Tanzania (SEEDZ). Qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions, community meetings, informal interviews, formal in-depth interviews, observations and surveys that addressed issues of health, disease, zoonotic disease risks, and routes for treatment across 21 villages. Thematic analysis was carried out on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Conceptual analyses and observations were made through application of social science theories of health.

Findings: Livestock keepers undertake a range of health seeking strategies loosely categorised around self and formal treatment. Two key themes emerged that are central to why people make the decisions they do: access to resources and trust in health care providers. These two issues affect individual sense of agency which impacts their ability to act to improve livestock health outcomes. We suggest that individual choice and agency in veterinary health seeking decisions are only beneficial if health systems can offer adequate care and health equity is addressed.

Significance: This study demonstrates the value of in-depth qualitative research which reveals the nuance and complexity of people's decisions around livestock health. Most importantly, it explains why “better” knowledge does not always translate into “better” practise. The paper suggests that acknowledging and addressing these aspects of veterinary health seeking will lead to more effective provision.

Latent class evaluation of the performance of serological tests for exposure to Brucella spp. in cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a neglected zoonosis endemic in many countries, including regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluated diagnostic tools for the detection of exposure to Brucella spp. are important for disease surveillance and guiding prevention and control activities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Bayesian latent class analysis was used to evaluate performance of the Rose Bengal plate test (RBT) and a competitive ELISA (cELISA) in detecting Brucella spp. exposure at the individual animal-level for cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania. Median posterior estimates of RBT sensitivity were: 0.779 (95% Bayesian credibility interval (BCI): 0.570-0.894), 0.893 (0.636-0.989), and 0.807 (0.575-0.966), and for cELISA were: 0.623 (0.443-0.790), 0.409 (0.241-0.644), and 0.561 (0.376-0.713), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Sensitivity BCIs were wide, with the widest for cELISA in sheep. RBT and cELISA median posterior estimates of specificity were high across species models: RBT ranged between 0.989 (0.980-0.998) and 0.995 (0.985-0.999), and cELISA between 0.984 (0.974-0.995) and 0.996 (0.988-1). Each species model generated seroprevalence estimates for two livestock subpopulations, pastoralist and non-pastoralist. Pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were: 0.063 (0.045-0.090), 0.033 (0.018-0.049), and 0.051 (0.034-0.076), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Non-pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were below 0.01 for all species models. Series and parallel diagnostic approaches were evaluated. Parallel outperformed a series approach. Median posterior estimates for parallel testing were ≥0.920 (0.760-0.986) for sensitivity and ≥0.973 (0.955-0.992) for specificity, for all species models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that Brucella spp. surveillance in Tanzania using RBT and cELISA in parallel at the animal-level would give high test performance. There is a need to evaluate strategies for implementing parallel testing at the herd- and flock-level. Our findings can assist in generating robust Brucella spp. exposure estimates for livestock in Tanzania and wider sub-Saharan Africa. The adoption of locally evaluated robust diagnostic tests in setting-specific surveillance is an important step towards brucellosis prevention and control.

Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern Tanzania

Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa face a range of pressures, including climate change, land loss, restrictive policies, and population increase. Widespread adaptation in response can lead to the emergence of new, non-traditional typologies of livestock production. We sought to characterise livestock production systems in two administrative regions in northern Tanzania, an area undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Questionnaire and spatial data were collected from 404 livestock-keeping households in 21 villages in Arusha and Manyara Regions in 2016. Multiple factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to classify households into livestock production systems based on household-level characteristics. Adversity-based indicators of vulnerability, including reports of hunger, illness, and livestock, land and crop losses were compared between production systems. Three distinct clusters emerged through this process. The ethnic, environmental and livestock management characteristics of households in each cluster broadly mapped onto traditional definitions of 'pastoral', 'agro-pastoral' and 'smallholder' livestock production in the study area, suggesting that this quantitative classification system is complementary to more qualitative classification methods. Our approach allowed us to demonstrate a diversity in typologies of livestock production at small spatial scales, with almost half of study villages comprising more than one production system. We also found indicators of change within livestock production systems, most notably the adoption of crop agriculture in the majority of pastoral households. System-level heterogeneities in vulnerability were evident, with agro-pastoral households most likely to report hunger and pastoral households most likely to report illness in people and livestock, and livestock losses. We demonstrate that livestock production systems can provide context for assessing household vulnerability in northern Tanzania. Policy initiatives to improve household and community well-being should recognise the continuing diversity of traditional livestock production systems in northern Tanzania, including the diversity that can exist at small spatial scales.

Peste des petits ruminants Virus Transmission Scaling and Husbandry Practices That Contribute to Increased Transmission Risk: An Investigation among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes an infectious disease of high morbidity and mortality among sheep and goats which impacts millions of livestock keepers globally. PPRV transmission risk varies by production system, but a deeper understanding of how transmission scales in these systems and which husbandry practices impact risk is needed. To investigate transmission scaling and husbandry practice-associated risk, this study combined 395 household questionnaires with over 7115 cross-sectional serosurvey samples collected in Tanzania among agropastoral and pastoral households managing sheep, goats, or cattle (most managed all three, n = 284, 71.9%). Although self-reported compound-level herd size was significantly larger in pastoral than agropastoral households, the data show no evidence that household herd force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) increased with herd size. Seroprevalence and FOI patterns observed at the sub-village level showed significant spatial variation in FOI. Univariate analyses showed that household herd FOI was significantly higher when households reported seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat introduction to the compound, death, sale, or giving away of animals in the past 12 months, when cattle were grazed separately from sheep and goats, and when the household also managed dogs or donkeys. Multivariable analyses revealed that species, production system type, and goat or sheep introduction or seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat death or sales, or goats given away in the past 12 months significantly increased odds of seroconversion, whereas managing pigs or cattle attending seasonal grazing camps had significantly lower odds of seroconversion. Further research should investigate specific husbandry practices across production systems in other countries and in systems that include additional atypical host species to broaden understanding of PPRV transmission.

Estimating acute human leptospirosis incidence in northern Tanzania using sentinel site and community behavioural surveillance

Many infectious diseases lack robust estimates of incidence from endemic areas, and extrapolating incidence when there are few locations with data remains a major challenge in burden of disease estimation. We sought to combine sentinel surveillance with community behavioural surveillance to estimate leptospirosis incidence. We administered a questionnaire gathering responses on established locally relevant leptospirosis risk factors and recent fever to livestock-owning community members across six districts in northern Tanzania and applied a logistic regression model predicting leptospirosis risk on the basis of behavioural factors that had been previously developed among patients with fever in Moshi Municipal and Moshi Rural Districts. We aggregated probability of leptospirosis by district and estimated incidence in each district by standardizing probabilities to those previously estimated for Moshi Districts. We recruited 286 community participants: Hai District (n = 11), Longido District (59), Monduli District (56), Moshi Municipal District (103), Moshi Rural District (44) and Rombo District (13). The mean predicted probability of leptospirosis by district was Hai 0.029 (0.005, 0.095), Longido 0.071 (0.009, 0.235), Monduli 0.055 (0.009, 0.206), Moshi Rural 0.014 (0.002, 0.049), Moshi Municipal 0.015 (0.004, 0.048) and Rombo 0.031 (0.006, 0.121). We estimated the annual incidence (upper and lower bounds of estimate) per 100,000 people of human leptospirosis among livestock owners by district as Hai 35 (6, 114), Longido 85 (11, 282), Monduli 66 (11, 247), Moshi Rural 17 (2, 59), Moshi Municipal 18 (5, 58) and Rombo 47 (7, 145). Use of community behavioural surveillance may be a useful tool for extrapolating disease incidence beyond sentinel surveillance sites.

Prevalence of Campylobacter and Salmonella in African food animals and meat: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter and Salmonella, particularly non-typhoidal Salmonella, are important bacterial enteric pathogens of humans which are often carried asymptomatically in animal reservoirs. Bacterial foodborne infections, including those derived from meat, are associated with illness and death globally but the burden is disproportionately high in Africa. Commercial meat production is increasing and intensifying in many African countries, creating opportunities and threats for food safety.

METHODS

Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched six databases for English language studies published through June 2016, that reported Campylobacter or Salmonella carriage or infection prevalence in food animals and contamination prevalence in food animal products from African countries. A random effects meta-analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to estimate the species-specific prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter and assess relationships between sample type and region and the detection or isolation of either pathogen.

RESULTS

Seventy-three studies reporting Campylobacter and 187 studies reporting Salmonella across 27 African countries were represented. Adjusted prevalence calculations estimate Campylobacter detection in 37.7% (95% CI 31.6-44.3) of 11,828 poultry samples; 24.6% (95% CI 18.0-32.7) of 1975 pig samples; 17.8% (95% CI 12.6-24.5) of 2907 goat samples; 12.6% (95% CI 8.4-18.5) of 2382 sheep samples; and 12.3% (95% CI 9.5-15.8) of 6545 cattle samples. Salmonella were detected in 13.9% (95% CI 11.7-16.4) of 25,430 poultry samples; 13.1% (95% CI 9.3-18.3) of 5467 pig samples; 9.3% (95% CI 7.2-12.1) of 2988 camel samples; 5.3% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) of 72,292 cattle samples; 4.8% (95% CI 3.6-6.3) of 11,335 sheep samples; and 3.4% (95% CI 2.2-5.2) of 4904 goat samples. 'External' samples (e.g. hide, feathers) were significantly more likely to be contaminated by both pathogens than 'gut' (e.g. faeces, cloaca) while meat and organs were significantly less likely to be contaminated than gut samples.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated widespread prevalence of Campylobacter species and Salmonella serovars in African food animals and meat, particularly in samples of poultry and pig origin. Source attribution studies could help ascertain which food animals are contributing to human campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis and direct potential food safety interventions.

The Sero-epidemiology of Neospora caninum in Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Neospora caninum is a protozoan intracellular parasite of animals with a global distribution. Dogs act as definitive hosts, with infection in cattle leading to reproductive losses. Neosporosis can be a major source of income loss for livestock keepers, but its impacts in sub-Saharan Africa are mostly unknown. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence and identify risk factors for N. caninum infection in cattle in northern Tanzania, and to link herd-level exposure to reproductive losses. Serum samples from 3,015 cattle were collected from 380 households in 20 villages between February and December 2016. Questionnaire data were collected from 360 of these households. Household coordinates were used to extract satellite derived environmental data from open-access sources. Sera were tested for the presence of N. caninum antibodies using an indirect ELISA. Risk factors for individual-level seropositivity were identified with logistic regression using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The relationship between herd-level seroprevalence and abortion rates was assessed using negative binomial regression. The seroprevalence of N. caninum exposure after adjustment for diagnostic test performance was 21.5% [95% Credibility Interval (CrI) 17.9-25.4]. The most important predictors of seropositivity selected by BMA were age greater than 18 months [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95% CrI 1.45-3.26], the local cattle population density (OR = 0.69, 95% CrI 0.41-1.00), household use of restricted grazing (OR = 0.72, 95% CrI 0.25-1.16), and an increasing percentage cover of shrub or forest land in the environment surrounding a household (OR = 1.37, 1.00-2.14). There was a positive relationship between herd-level N. caninum seroprevalence and the reported within-herd abortion rate (Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.03, 95% CrI 1.00-1.06). Our findings suggest N. caninum is likely to be an important cause of abortion in cattle in Tanzania. Management practices, such as restricted grazing, are likely to reduce the risk of infection and suggest contamination of communal grazing areas may be important for transmission. Evidence for a relationship between livestock seropositivity and shrub and forest habitats raises questions about a potential role for wildlife in the epidemiology of N. caninum in Tanzania.

General contextual effects on neglected tropical disease risk in rural Kenya

The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are characterized by their tendency to cluster within groups of people, typically the poorest and most marginalized. Despite this, measures of clustering, such as within-group correlation or between-group heterogeneity, are rarely reported from community-based studies of NTD risk. We describe a general contextual analysis that uses multi-level models to partition and quantify variation in individual NTD risk at multiple grouping levels in rural Kenya. The importance of general contextual effects (GCE) in structuring variation in individual infection with Schistosoma mansoni, the soil-transmitted helminths, Taenia species, and Entamoeba histolytica/dispar was examined at the household-, sublocation- and constituency-levels using variance partition/intra-class correlation co-efficients and median odds ratios. These were compared with GCE for HIV, Plasmodium falciparum and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The role of place of residence in shaping infection risk was further assessed using the spatial scan statistic. Individuals from the same household showed correlation in infection for all pathogens, and this was consistently highest for the gastrointestinal helminths. The lowest levels of household clustering were observed for E. histolytica/dispar, P. falciparum and M. tuberculosis. Substantial heterogeneity in individual infection risk was observed between sublocations for S. mansoni and Taenia solium cysticercosis and between constituencies for infection with S. mansoni, Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides. Large overlapping spatial clusters were detected for S. mansoni, T. trichiura, A. lumbricoides, and Taenia spp., which overlapped a large cluster of elevated HIV risk. Important place-based heterogeneities in infection risk exist in this community, and these GCEs are greater for the NTDs and HIV than for TB and malaria. Our findings suggest that broad-scale contextual drivers shape infectious disease risk in this population, but these effects operate at different grouping-levels for different pathogens. A general contextual analysis can provide a foundation for understanding the complex ecology of NTDs and contribute to the targeting of interventions.

Serological and spatial analysis of alphavirus and flavivirus prevalence and risk factors in a rural community in western Kenya

Alphaviruses, such as chikungunya virus, and flaviviruses, such as dengue virus, are (re)-emerging arboviruses that are endemic in tropical environments. In Africa, arbovirus infections are often undiagnosed and unreported, with febrile illnesses often assumed to be malaria. This cross-sectional study aimed to characterize the seroprevalence of alphaviruses and flaviviruses among children (ages 5-14, n = 250) and adults (ages 15 ≥ 75, n = 250) in western Kenya. Risk factors for seropositivity were explored using Lasso regression. Overall, 67% of participants showed alphavirus seropositivity (CI95 63%-70%), and 1.6% of participants showed flavivirus seropositivity (CI95 0.7%-3%). Children aged 10-14 were more likely to be seropositive to an alphavirus than adults (p < 0.001), suggesting a recent transmission period. Alphavirus and flavivirus seropositivity was detected in the youngest participants (age 5-9), providing evidence of inter-epidemic transmission. Demographic variables that were significantly different amongst those with previous infection versus those without infection included age, education level, and occupation. Behavioral and environmental variables significantly different amongst those in with previous infection to those without infection included taking animals for grazing, fishing, and recent village flooding. Experience of recent fever was also found to be a significant indicator of infection (p = 0.027). These results confirm alphavirus and flavivirus exposure in western Kenya, while illustrating significantly higher alphavirus transmission compared to previous studies.

An integrated study of human and animal infectious disease in the Lake Victoria crescent small-holder crop-livestock production system, Kenya

BACKGROUND

The neglected zoonotic diseases (NZD) are an understudied group that are a major cause of illness throughout the developing world. In general, little is known about the prevalence and burden of NZDs in affected communities, particularly in relation to other infectious diseases with which they are often co-endemic. We describe the design and descriptive epidemiological outputs from an integrated study of human and animal zoonotic and non-zoonotic disease in a rural farming community in western Kenya.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey involved 2113 people, their cattle (n = 983) and pigs (n = 91). People and animals were tested for infection or exposure to a wide range of zoonotic and non-zoonotic pathogens. Prevalence estimates, with adjustment for the complex study design, were derived. Evidence for spatial clustering in exposure or infection was identified using the spatial scan statistic.

RESULTS

There was a high prevalence of human parasitism in the community, particularly with hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale or Necator americanus) (36.3% (95% CI 32.8-39.9)), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (30.1% (95% CI 27.5-32.8)), and Plasmodium falciparum (29.4% (95% CI 26.8-32.0)). Human infection with Taenia spp. was also prevalent (19.7% (95% CI 16.7-22.7)), while exposure to other zoonotic pathogens was comparatively rarer (Brucella spp., 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-0.9); Coxiella burnetii, 2.2% (95% CI 1.5-2.9); Rift Valley fever, 0.5% (95% CI 0.2-0.8)). A low prevalence of exposure to Brucella spp. was observed in cattle (0.26% (95% CI 0-0.56). This was higher for Rift Valley fever virus (1.4% (95% CI 0.5-2.22)) and C. burnetii (10.0% (95% CI 7.7-12.2)). The prevalence of Taenia spp. cysticercosis was 53.5% (95% CI 48.7-58.3) in cattle and 17.2% (95% CI 9.1-25.3) in pigs. Mycobacterium bovis infection was found in 2.2% of cattle (95% CI 1.3-3.2), while the prevalence of infection with Mycobacterium spp. was 8.2% (95% CI 6.8-9.6) in people.

CONCLUSION

Zoonotic infections in people and animals occur in the context of a wide range of co-endemic pathogens in a rural community in western Kenya. The wide diversity of pathogens under study provides a unique opportunity to explore the distribution and determinants of infection in a multi-pathogen, multi-host system.

Poor performance of the rapid test for human brucellosis in health facilities in Kenya

Human brucellosis is considered to be an important but typically under-diagnosed cause of febrile illness in many low and middle-income countries. In Kenya, and throughout East Africa, laboratory diagnosis for the disease is based primarily on the febrile antigen Brucella agglutination test (FBAT), yet few studies of the diagnostic accuracy of this test exist. Assessment of the performance of the FBAT is essential for its appropriate clinical use, as well as for evaluating surveillance data reported by public health systems. To assess FBAT performance, we collected sera from people with symptoms compatible with brucellosis attending two health facilities in Busia County, Kenya. Sera were tested using the FBAT and results compared with those from the Rose Bengal Test (RBT), an assay with well-known performance characteristics. Positives on either test were confirmed using the classical serum agglutination test (SAT)-Coombs test combination and a rapid IgM/IgG lateral flow immunochromatography assay (LFA). A questionnaire focussing on known risk factors for exposure to Brucella spp. was also conducted, and relationships with FBAT positivity examined using logistic regression. Out of 825 recruited individuals, 162 (19.6%) were classified as positive using the FBAT. In contrast, only eight (1.0%) were positive using the RBT. Of the 162 FBAT positives, one (0.62%) had an atypical agglutination in SAT and three (1.9%) showed low Coombs titres. Out of 148 FBAT positive individuals tested using the LFA, five (3.4%) were IgM positive and none were IgG positive. Poor or no correlation was observed between FBAT results and most established risk factors for Brucella infection. We observed substantial disagreement between the FBAT and a number of well-known serological tests, with the majority of reactive FBAT results appearing to be false positives. Poor FBAT specificity, combined with a lack of confirmatory testing, strongly suggests overdiagnosis of brucellosis is common in this low prevalence setting. This is expected to have important economic impacts on affected patients subjected to the long and likely unnecessary courses of multiple antibiotics required for treatment of the disease.

Brucellosis is a debilitating disease of people caused by infection with one of a number of different Brucella species. In almost all cases, people acquire the infection through exposure to infected animals or contaminated animal products. Human brucellosis is well known for its wide range of symptoms, and is often clinically indistinguishable from other infectious diseases, such as malaria or typhoid. Diagnosing the disease therefore typically relies on laboratory tests. A wide range of tests are available, but little is known about the accuracy of the principal test used in Government health facilities in Kenya, the febrile Brucella agglutination test (FBAT). In this study, we identified people with symptoms compatible with brucellosis attending health centres in Kenya. By comparing results from the FBAT performed on samples collected from these individuals with the results from a range of well-established diagnostic tests, we were able to show that the FBAT produces large numbers of false positive results. We expect that this leads to a high levels of overdiagnosis of brucellosis in some parts of Kenya. Treatment of the disease involves multiple weeks of multiple antibiotics, and these incorrect diagnoses may have important and unnecessary negative impacts on affected patients.

Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya

The tapeworm Taenia solium is the parasite responsible for neurocysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease of public health importance, thought to cause approximately 1/3 of epilepsy cases across endemic regions. The consumption of undercooked infected pork perpetuates the parasite’s life-cycle through the establishment of adult tapeworm infections in the community. Reducing the risk associated with pork consumption in the developing world is therefore a public health priority. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of any one pork meal in western Kenya containing a potentially infective T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption, an aspect of the parasite transmission that has not been estimated before. To estimate this, we used a quantitative food chain risk assessment model built in the @RISK add-on to Microsoft Excel. This model indicates that any one pork meal consumed in western Kenya has a 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002–0.0164) probability of containing at least one viable T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption and therefore being potentially infectious to humans. This equates to 22,282 (99% U.I. 622–64,134) potentially infective pork meals consumed in the course of one year within Busia District alone. This model indicates a high risk of T. solium infection associated with pork consumption in western Kenya and the work presented here can be built upon to investigate the efficacy of various mitigation strategies for this locality.

Taenia solium is a serious zoonotic helminth which is thought to be responsible for approximately 1/3^rd of epilepsy cases in the developing world. The work presented in this paper aimed to understand what the risk is of acquiring T. solium taeniosis from pork slaughtered and consumed in western Kenya. In order to do this we built a stochastic risk assessment model to investigate the safety of pork reaching the consumer in terms of the risk of having viable T. solium cysts in any one portion of meat consumed. We found that pork represents a high risk product in this study area and therefore control strategies are urgently needed to reduce the public health risk posed by this product.

One Health Research in Northern Tanzania - Challenges and Progress

East Africa has one of the world's fastest growing human populations-many of whom are dependent on livestock-as well as some of the world's largest wildlife populations. Humans, livestock, and wildlife often interact closely, intimately linking human, animal, and environmental health. The concept of One Health captures this interconnectedness, including the social structures and beliefs driving interactions between species and their environments. East African policymakers and researchers are recognising and encouraging One Health research, with both groups increasingly playing a leading role in this subject area. One Health research requires interaction between scientists from different disciplines, such as the biological and social sciences and human and veterinary medicine. Different disciplines draw on norms, methodologies, and terminologies that have evolved within their respective institutions and that may be distinct from or in conflict with one another. These differences impact interdisciplinary research, both around theoretical and methodological approaches and during project operationalisation. We present experiential knowledge gained from numerous ongoing projects in northern Tanzania, including those dealing with bacterial zoonoses associated with febrile illness, foodborne disease, and anthrax. We use the examples to illustrate differences between and within social and biological sciences and between industrialised and traditional societies, for example, with regard to consenting procedures or the ethical treatment of animals. We describe challenges encountered in ethical approval processes, consenting procedures, and field and laboratory logistics and offer suggestions for improvement. While considerable investment of time in sensitisation, communication, and collaboration is needed to overcome interdisciplinary challenges inherent in One Health research, this can yield great rewards in paving the way for successful implementation of One Health projects. Furthermore, continued investment in African institutions and scientists will strengthen the role of East Africa as a world leader in One Health research.

The Sero-epidemiology of Coxiella burnetii in Humans and Cattle, Western Kenya: Evidence from a Cross-Sectional Study

Evidence suggests that the intracellular bacterial pathogen Coxiella burnetii (which causes Q fever) is widespread, with a near global distribution. While there has been increasing attention to Q fever epidemiology in high-income settings, a recent systematic review highlighted significant gaps in our understanding of the prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for Q fever infection across Africa. This research aimed to provide a One Health assessment of Q fever epidemiology in parts of Western and Nyanza Provinces, Western Kenya, in cattle and humans. A cross-sectional survey was conducted: serum samples from 2049 humans and 955 cattle in 416 homesteads were analysed for C. burnetii antibodies. Questionnaires covering demographic, socio-economic and husbandry information were also administered. These data were linked to environmental datasets based on geographical locations (e.g., land cover). Correlation and spatial-cross correlation analyses were applied to assess the potential link between cattle and human seroprevalence. Multilevel regression analysis was used to assess the relationships between a range of socio-economic, demographic and environmental factors and sero-positivity in both humans and animals. The overall sero-prevalence of C. burnetii was 2.5% in humans and 10.5% in cattle, but we found no evidence of correlation between cattle and human seroprevalence either within households, or when incorporating spatial proximity to other households in the survey. Multilevel modelling indicated the importance of several factors for exposure to the organism. Cattle obtained from market (as opposed to those bred in their homestead) and those residing in areas with lower precipitation levels had the highest sero-prevalence. For humans, the youngest age group had the highest odds of seropositivity, variations were observed between ethnic groups, and frequent livestock contact (specifically grazing and dealing with abortion material) was also a risk factor. These results illustrate endemicity of C. burnetii in western Kenya, although prevalence is relatively low. The analysis indicates that while environmental factors may play a role in cattle exposure patterns, human exposure patterns are likely to be driven more strongly by livestock contacts. The implication of livestock markets in cattle exposure risks suggests these may be a suitable target for interventions.

Evidence for the presence of African swine fever virus in an endemic region of Western Kenya in the absence of any reported outbreak

BACKGROUND

African swine fever (ASF), caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a severe haemorrhagic disease of pigs, outbreaks of which can have a devastating impact upon commercial and small-holder pig production. Pig production in western Kenya is characterised by low-input, free-range systems practised by poor farmers keeping between two and ten pigs. These farmers are particularly vulnerable to the catastrophic loss of livestock assets experienced in an ASF outbreak. This study wished to expand our understanding of ASFV epidemiology during a period when no outbreaks were reported.

RESULTS

Two hundred and seventy six whole blood samples were analysed using two independent conventional and real time PCR assays to detect ASFV. Despite no recorded outbreak of clinical ASF during this time, virus was detected in 90/277 samples analysed by conventional PCR and 142/209 samples analysed by qPCR. Genotyping of a sub-set of these samples indicated that the viruses associated with the positive samples were classified within genotype IX and that these strains were therefore genetically similar to the virus associated with the 2006/2007 ASF outbreaks in Kenya.

CONCLUSION

The detection of ASFV viral DNA in a relatively high number of pigs delivered for slaughter during a period with no reported outbreaks provides support for two hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive: (1) that virus prevalence may be over-estimated by slaughter-slab sampling, relative to that prevailing in the wider pig population; (2) that sub-clinical, chronically infected or recovered pigs may be responsible for persistence of the virus in endemic areas.

Seroepidemiological Study of Interepidemic Rift Valley Fever Virus Infection Among Persons with Intense Ruminant Exposure in Madagascar and Kenya

In this cross-sectional seroepidemiological study we sought to examine the evidence for circulation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) among herders in Madagascar and Kenya. From July 2010 to June 2012, we enrolled 459 herders and 98 controls (without ruminant exposures) and studied their sera (immunoglobulin G [IgG] and IgM through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA] and plaque reduction neutralization test [PRNT] assays) for evidence of previous RVFV infection. Overall, 59 (12.9%) of 459 herders and 7 (7.1%) of the 98 controls were positive by the IgG ELISA assay. Of the 59 ELISA-positive herders, 23 (38.9%) were confirmed by the PRNT assay (21 from eastern Kenya). Two of the 21 PRNT-positive study subjects also had elevated IgM antibodies against RVFV suggesting recent infection. Multivariate modeling in this study revealed that being seminomadic (odds ratio [OR] = 6.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1-15.4) was most strongly associated with antibodies against RVFV. Although we cannot know when these infections occurred, it seems likely that some interepidemic RVFV infections are occurring among herders. As there are disincentives regarding reporting RVFV outbreaks in livestock or wildlife, it may be prudent to conduct periodic, limited, active seroepidemiological surveillance for RVFV infections in herders, especially in eastern Kenya.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease.

In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005.

Results

Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination.

Conclusions

This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.

The spatial ecology of free-ranging domestic pigs (Sus scrofa) in western Kenya

BACKGROUND

In many parts of the developing world, pigs are kept under low-input systems where they roam freely to scavenge food. These systems allow poor farmers the opportunity to enter into livestock keeping without large capital investments. This, combined with a growing demand for pork, especially in urban areas, has led to an increase in the number of small-holder farmers keeping free range pigs as a commercial enterprise. Despite the benefits which pig production can bring to a household, keeping pigs under a free range system increases the risk of the pig acquiring diseases, either production-limiting or zoonotic in nature. This study used Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to track free range domestic pigs in rural western Kenya, in order to understand their movement patterns and interactions with elements of the peri-domestic environment.

RESULTS

We found that these pigs travel an average of 4,340 m in a 12 hr period and had a mean home range of 10,343 m(2) (range 2,937-32,759 m(2)) within which the core utilisation distribution was found to be 964 m(2) (range 246-3,289 m(2)) with pigs spending on average 47% of their time outside their homestead of origin.

CONCLUSION

These are the first data available on the home range of domestic pigs kept under a free range system: the data show that pigs in these systems spend much of their time scavenging outside their homesteads, suggesting that these pigs may be exposed to infectious agents over a wide area. Control policies for diseases such as Taenia solium, Trypanosomiasis, Trichinellosis, Toxoplasmosis or African Swine Fever therefore require a community-wide focus and pig farmers require education on the inherent risks of keeping pigs under a free range system. The work presented here will enable future research to incorporate movement data into studies of disease transmission, for example for the understanding of transmission of African Swine Fever between individuals, or in relation to the life-cycle of parasites including Taenia solium.