High-fidelity initialization and control of electron and nuclear spins in a four-qubit register

Single electron spins bound to multi-phosphorus nuclear spin registers in silicon have demonstrated fast (0.8 ns) two-qubitSWAP gates and long spin relaxation times (~30 s). In these spin registers, when the donors are ionized, the nuclear spins remain weakly coupled to their environment, allowing exceptionally long coherence times. When the electron is present, the hyperfine interaction allows coupling of the spin and charge degrees of freedom for fast qubit operation and control. Here we demonstrate the use of the hyperfine interaction to enact electric dipole spin resonance to realize high-fidelity ( F = 10 0 - 6 + 0 %) initialization of all the nuclear spins within a four-qubit nuclear spin register. By controllably initializing the nuclear spins to⇓ ⇓ ⇓ , we achieve single-electron qubit gate fidelities of F = 99.78 ± 0.07% (Clifford gate fidelities of 99.58 ± 0.14%), above the fault-tolerant threshold for the surface code with a coherence time ofT 2 * = 12 μ s .

Evaluation of non-additive genetic effects on carcass and meat quality traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle using genomic models

The traditional genetic evaluation methods generally consider additive genetic effects only and often ignore non-additive (dominance and epistasis) effects that may have contributed to genetic variation of complex traits of livestock species. The available dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) panels offer to investigate the potential benefits of including non-additive genetic effects in the genomic evaluation models. Data from 16 971 genotyped (Illumina Bovine 50 K SNP chip) Korean Hanwoo cattle were used to estimate genetic variance components and prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values (GEBVs) for four carcass and meat quality traits: carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back fat thickness (BFT) and marbling score (MS). Five different genetic models were evaluated through including additive, dominance and epistatic interactions (additive by additive, A × A; additive by dominance, A × D and dominance by dominance, D × D) successively in the models. The estimates of additive genetic variances and narrow sense heritabilities (ha2) were found similar across the evaluated models and traits except when additive interaction (A × A) was included. The dominance variance estimates relative to phenotypic variance ranged from 1.7-3.4% for CWT and MS traits, whereas, they were close to zero for EMA and BFT traits. The magnitude of A × A epistatic heritability (haa2) ranged between 14.8 and 27.7% in all traits. However, heritability estimates for A × D and D × D epistatic interactions (had2 and hdd2) were quite low compared to haa2 and were contributed only 0.0-9.7% of the total phenotypic variation. In general, broad sense heritability (hG2) estimates were almost twice (ranging between 0.54 and 0.68) the ha2 for all of the investigated traits. The inclusion of dominance effects did not improve the prediction accuracy of GEBV but improved 2.0-3.0% when epistatic effects were included in the model. More importantly, rank correlation revealed that partitioning of variance components considering dominance and epistatic effects in the model would enable to re-rank of top animals with better prediction of GEBV. The present result suggests that dominance and epistatic effects could be included in the genomic evaluation model for better estimates of variance components and more accurate prediction of GEBV for carcass and meat quality traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle.

Change in employment status and its causal effect on suicidal ideation and depressive symptoms: A marginal structural model with machine learning algorithms

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the causal effect of a change in employment status on suicidal ideation and depressive symptoms by applying marginal structural models (MSM) with machine-learning (ML) algorithms.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the 8-15th waves (2013-2020) of the Korean Welfare Panel Study, a nationally representative longitudinal dataset. Our analysis included 13 294 observations from 3621 participants who had standard employment at baseline (2013-2019). Based on employment status at follow-up year (2014-2020), respondents were classified into two groups: (i) maintained standard employment (reference group), (ii) changed to non-standard employment. Suicidal ideation during the past year and depressive symptoms during the past week were assessed through self-report questionnaire. To apply the ML algorithms to the MSM, we conducted eight ML algorithms to build the propensity score indicating a change in employment status. Then, we applied the MSM to examine the causal effect by using inverse probability weights calculated based on the propensity score from ML algorithms.

RESULTS

The random forest algorithm performed best among all algorithms, showing the highest area under the curve 0.702, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.686-0.718. In the MSM with the random forest algorithm, workers who changed from standard to non-standard employment were 2.07 times more likely to report suicidal ideation compared to those who maintained standard employment (95% CI 1.16-3.70). A similar trend was observed in the analysis of depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that a change in employment status could lead to a higher risk of suicidal ideation and depressive symptoms.

Five-year Clinical Evaluation of Universal Adhesives in Noncarious Cervical Lesions

OBJECTIVES

To compare the clinical performance of mildly acidic universal adhesives Scotchbond Universal (SU, 3M Oral Care, St Paul, MN, USA) and Prime & Bond Elect (PBE, Dentsply Sirona, Charlotte, NC, USA) in the restoration of noncarious cervical lesions (NCCLs).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A total of 63 patients in need of 203 NCCL restorations participated in this randomized controlled clinical trial. Notch-shaped lesions were restored with Kalore (GC Corporation, Tokyo, Japan) after application of either SU or PBE, following the etch-and-rinse (ER) or self-etch (SE) techniques. Subjects were followed up for 60 months. The focus of the statistical analyses was on the change of outcome over time as assessed by the Modified USPHS rating system (ie, Alfa vs Bravo + Charlie outcomes). Logistic regression was performed for each outcome separately with compound symmetric variance-covariance structure assumed to consider a correlation of restorations within subjects. All analyses were conducted using SAS 9.4 (SAS, Cary, NC, USA).

RESULTS

One-hundred twenty-nine teeth in 35 subjects were assessed at the 60-month follow-up. In addition, three restorations that failed prior to the 60-month evaluation, two of which were in subjects who did not present for the 60-month follow-up, were included in the statistical analysis. In total, two restorations in the SU_ER group and three restorations in the PBE_SE group failed the retention category. Statistically significant differences were obtained for the comparison of restorations in the PBE_SE and PBE_ER groups, where the former was 58% less likely to maintain a score of Alfa for marginal discoloration than the latter.

CONCLUSIONS

SU and PBE demonstrated acceptable clinical performance at 60 months with regard to restoration retention. Phosphoric-acid etching of the NCCLs prior to adhesive application significantly improved the performance of PBE in regard to marginal discoloration.

O-009 Controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) protocols for assisted reproduction: a Cochrane systematic review and network meta-analysis

Study question

What is the relative effectiveness and safety of existing COS protocols for women undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment?

Summary answer

There was no difference in live birth between all protocols, but short antagonist protocols may reduce ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome in women with predicted normal/high response.

What is known already

Controlled ovarian stimulation is an essential step in most ART cycles. It involves the administration of exogenous gonadotrophins to induce multifollicular growth, usually in addition to drugs that prevent untimely ovulation by suppressing the pituitary gland. Different treatment combinations may be used in COS. These vary according to the type of drugs administered for pituitary suppression (e.g., gonadotrophin-releasing hormone [GnRH] agonists, antagonists) and ovarian stimulation (e.g., urinary or recombinant gonadotrophins). Drug dosages, timing and routes of administration also vary between different regimens. However, there is no consensus on how the existing COS protocols rank according to their effectiveness and safety.

Study design, size, duration

We searched the following databases to November 2021: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing at least two COS protocols using GnRH agonists or antagonists for pituitary suppression; and human menopausal gonadotrophin (hMG), urinary or recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone (u/rFSH), with or without luteinising hormone (LH) for ovarian stimulation. The primary outcomes were the rates of live birth (LBR) and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) per participant after one stimulation cycle.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. We conducted pairwise and network meta-analyses (NMA) according to participants’ predicted response to COS (normal, high and low). Using the Cochrane-RoB-1 tool, we restricted our primary analyses to RCTs at low risk of selection and other biases. We presented effect estimates as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and considered I2>50% as representing substantial heterogeneity. For each outcome, we generated ranking plots comparing different interventions.

Main results and the role of chance

In total, our searches identified 9464 studies. The primary analysis included 68 RCTs assessing 17861 women and 34 different COS protocols. The evidence showed that in women with predicted normal or high response, the use of short GnRH antagonist protocols may result in little to no difference in LBR (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.13; 6 studies; 2063 women; I2 = 0%; low-certainty evidence) and a reduction in OHSS (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.99; 7 studies; 2246 women; I2 = 0%; low-certainty evidence) compared with long GnRH agonist protocols. The rankogram comparing different COS protocols showed a probability of 98% that short GnRH antagonist regimens are the best treatment to prevent OHSS. Sensitivity analyses including all studies showed that in women with predicted normal response undergoing long GnRH agonist cycles for pituitary suppression, the use of rFSH for ovarian stimulation may result in decreased fresh-cycle LBR compared to hMG (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.95; 7 studies; 1575 women; I2 = 1%; low-certainty evidence). For the remaining interventions (e.g., agonist flare or progestogens for pituitary suppression, in combination with various gonadotrophin regimens) the evidence was uncertain of an effect or insufficient for quantitative synthesis.

Limitations, reasons for caution

The high number of interventions resulted in disconnected networks, limiting our ability to perform NMA for some comparisons. The certainty of the evidence was limited by serious risk of bias. Finally, the lack of data on cumulative LBR and differences in oocyte yield made comparisons between FSH preparations potentially unbalanced.

Wider implications of the findings

Our findings suggest that the use of short GnRH antagonist protocols may result in reduced OHSS rates in women with predicted normal or high ovarian response without compromising live birth rates. There is a paucity of high-quality RCTs comparing different gonadotrophin preparations (e.g., hMG versus rFSH) for COS.

Trial registration number

N/A

Engineering topological states in atom-based semiconductor quantum dots

The realization of controllable fermionic quantum systems via quantum simulation is instrumental for exploring many of the most intriguing effects in condensed-matter physics^1–3. Semiconductor quantum dots are particularly promising for quantum simulation as they can be engineered to achieve strong quantum correlations. However, although simulation of the Fermi–Hubbard model⁴ and Nagaoka ferromagnetism⁵ have been reported before, the simplest one-dimensional model of strongly correlated topological matter, the many-body Su–Schrieffer–Heeger (SSH) model^6–11, has so far remained elusive—mostly owing to the challenge of precisely engineering long-range interactions between electrons to reproduce the chosen Hamiltonian. Here we show that for precision-placed atoms in silicon with strong Coulomb confinement, we can engineer a minimum of six all-epitaxial in-plane gates to tune the energy levels across a linear array of ten quantum dots to realize both the trivial and the topological phases of the many-body SSH model. The strong on-site energies (about 25 millielectronvolts) and the ability to engineer gates with subnanometre precision in a unique staggered design allow us to tune the ratio between intercell and intracell electron transport to observe clear signatures of a topological phase with two conductance peaks at quarter-filling, compared with the ten conductance peaks of the trivial phase. The demonstration of the SSH model in a fermionic system isomorphic to qubits showcases our highly controllable quantum system and its usefulness for future simulations of strongly interacting electrons.

Precision-engineered devices consisting of a linear array of ten quantum dots are used to realize both the trivial and topological phases of the many-body Su–Schrieffer–Heeger model.

Assessing seasonality and the role of its potential drivers in environmental epidemiology: a tutorial

Several methods have been used to assess the seasonality of health outcomes in epidemiological studies. However, little information is available on the methods to study the changes in seasonality before and after adjusting for environmental or other known seasonally varying factors. Such investigations will help us understand the role of these factors in seasonal variation in health outcomes and further identify currently unknown or unmeasured risk factors. This tutorial illustrates a statistical procedure for examining the seasonality of health outcomes and their changes, after adjusting for potential environmental drivers by assessing and comparing shape, timings and size. We recommend a three-step procedure, each carried out and compared before and after adjustment: (i) inspecting the fitted seasonal curve to determine the broad shape of seasonality; (ii) identifying the peak and trough of seasonality to determine the timings of seasonality; and (iii) estimating the peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction to measure the size of seasonality. Reporting changes in these features on adjusting for potential drivers allows readers to understand their role in seasonality and the nature of any residual seasonal pattern. Furthermore, the proposed approach can be extended to other health outcomes and environmental drivers.

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

BACKGROUND

Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature.

METHODS

We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on location-specific characteristics from 719 locations in tropical, dry, temperate and continental climate zones. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate the amplitude of seasonal variation in mortality on a daily basis, defined as the peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) of maximum mortality estimates to minimum mortality estimates at day of year. Meta-analysis was used to summarize location-specific estimates for each climate zone. We estimated the PTR with and without temperature adjustment, with the differences representing the seasonal effect attributable to temperature. We also evaluated the effect of location-specific characteristics on the PTR across locations by using meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Seasonality estimates and responses to temperature adjustment varied across locations. The unadjusted PTR for all-cause mortality was 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.11] in the tropical zone and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.20-1.25) in the temperate zone; adjusting for temperature reduced the estimates to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.12), respectively. Furthermore, the unadjusted PTR was positively associated with average mean temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

Effect of total cholesterol level variabilities on cerebrovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

Hyperlipidemia is a risk factor of cerebrovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between CVD and cholesterol variability is less clear. This study assesses the relationship between cholesterol change and CVD risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed 480,830 people from 20 to 99 years with 2 health check-ups from 2002 to 2015 from the Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) database. People's baseline and follow-up cholesterol levels were classified into low (<180 mg/dL), moderate (≥180 mg/dL and <240 mg/dL), and high (≥240 mg/dL). Participants were divided into 9 groups (low-to-low, low-to-moderate, low-to-high, moderate-to-low, moderate-to-moderate, moderate-to-high, high-to-low, high-to-moderate, high-to-high).

RESULTS

Low to high cholesterol level is associated with hemorrhagic stroke (aHR1 = 1.59; 95% CI 1.12-2.28 and aHR2 = 1.56; 95% CI 1.07-2.25). Low to moderate/high cholesterol level is associated with ischemic stroke and occlusion/stenosis (for low to moderate, aHR1 = 1.11; 95% CI 1.04-1.17 and aHR2 = 1.14; 95% CI 1.07-1.21 for ischemic stroke and aHR1 = 1.18; 95% CI 1.07-1.29 and aHR2 = 1.20; 95% CI 1.08-1.32 for occlusion/stenosis, for low to high, aHR1 = 1.42; 95% CI 1.20-1.67 and aHR2 = 1.28; 95% CI 1.08-1.52 for ischemic stroke and aHR1 = 1.86; 95% CI 1.46-2.36 and aHR2= 1.74; 95% CI 1.36-2.23 for occlusion/stenosis). Moderate to high cholesterol level is associated with ischemic stroke and occlusion/stenosis (for ischemic stroke, aHR1 = 1.12; 95% CI 1.05-1.20 and aHR2 = 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.17, for occlusion/stenosis, aHR1 = 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.33 and aHR2 = 1.19; 95% CI 1.08-1.32). Moderate to low cholesterol level is associated with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and occlusion/stenosis (for ischemic, aHR1 = 1.15; 95% CI 1.09-1.21, for hemorrhagic, aHR1 = 1.14; 95% CI 1.01-1.28, for occlusion/stenosis, aHR1 = 1.14; 95% CI 1.05-1.23). High to low cholesterol level is associated with ischemic stroke and occlusion/stenosis (for ischemic stroke, aHR1 = 1.51; 95% CI 1.33-1.71 and aHR2 = 1.20; 95% CI 1.05-1.36, for occlusion/stenosis, aHR1 = 1.50; 95% CI 1.24-1.81).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that cholesterol changes, especially larger changes, lead to an increase in CVD, which demonstrates that cholesterol variability may increase CVD.

Gender difference in under-reporting hiring discrimination in South Korea: a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted to examine gender differences in under-reporting hiring discrimination by building a prediction model for workers who responded “not applicable (NA)” to a question about hiring discrimination despite being eligible to answer.

METHODS

Using data from 3,576 wage workers in the seventh wave (2004) of the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study, we trained and tested 9 machine learning algorithms using “yes” or “no” responses regarding the lifetime experience of hiring discrimination. We then applied the best-performing model to estimate the prevalence of experiencing hiring discrimination among those who answered “NA.” Under-reporting of hiring discrimination was calculated by comparing the prevalence of hiring discrimination between the “yes” or “no” group and the “NA” group.

RESULTS

Based on the predictions from the random forest model, we found that 58.8% of the “NA” group were predicted to have experienced hiring discrimination, while 19.7% of the “yes” or “no” group reported hiring discrimination. Among the “NA” group, the predicted prevalence of hiring discrimination for men and women was 45.3% and 84.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces a methodological strategy for epidemiologic studies to address the under-reporting of discrimination by applying machine learning algorithms.

Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Despite concerns regarding increasingly frequent and intense heat waves due to global warming, there is still a lack of information on the effects of extremely high temperatures on the adult abundance of mosquito species that are known to transmit vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of extremely high temperatures on the abundance of mosquitoes by analyzing time series data for temperature and mosquito abundance in Incheon Metropolitan City (IMC), Republic of Korea, for the period from 2015 to 2020.

METHODS

A generalized linear model with Poisson distribution and overdispersion was used to model the nonlinear association between temperature and mosquito count for the whole study area and for its constituent urban and rural regions. The association parameters were pooled using multivariate meta-regression. The temperature-mosquito abundance curve was estimated from the pooled estimates, and the ambient temperature at which mosquito populations reached maximum abundance (TMA) was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation method. To quantify the effect of extremely high temperatures on mosquito abundance, we estimated the mosquito abundance ratio (AR) at the 99th temperature percentile (AR_99th) against the TMA.

RESULTS

Culex pipiens was the most common mosquito species (51.7%) in the urban region of the IMC, while mosquitoes of the genus Aedes (Ochlerotatus) were the most common in the rural region (47.8%). Mosquito abundance reached a maximum at 23.5 °C for Cx. pipiens and 26.4 °C for Aedes vexans. Exposure to extremely high temperatures reduced the abundance of Cx. pipiens mosquitoes {AR_99th 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.54]} to a greater extent than that of Anopheles spp. [AR_99th 0.64 (95% CI 0.40-1.03)]. When stratified by region, Ae. vexans and Ochlerotatus koreicus mosquitoes showed higher TMA and a smaller reduction in abundance at extreme heat in urban Incheon than in Ganghwa, suggesting that urban mosquitoes can thrive at extremely high temperatures as they adapt to urban thermal environments.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed that the temperature-related abundance of the adult mosquitoes was species and location specific. Tailoring measures for mosquito prevention and control according to mosquito species and anticipated extreme temperature conditions would help to improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease control programs.

Respiratory function declines in children with asthma associated with chemical species of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Nagasaki, Japan

BACKGROUND

The differential effects of PM_2.5 fractions on children's lung function remain inconclusive. This study aimed to examine whether lung function in asthmatic children was associated with increased PM_2.5 fractions in urban areas in Nagasaki prefecture, Japan, where the air pollution level is relatively low but influenced by transboundary air pollution.

METHODS

We conducted a multiyear panel study of 73 asthmatic children (boys, 60.3%; mean age, 8.2 years) spanning spring 2014-2016 in two cities. We collected self-measured peak expiratory flow (PEF) twice a day and daily time-series data for PM_2.5 total mass and its chemical species. We fitted a linear mixed effects model to examine short-term associations between PEF and PM_2.5, adjusting for individual and time-varying confounders. A generalized linear mixed effects model was also used to estimate the association for worsening asthma defined by severe PEF decline. Back-trajectory and cluster analyses were used to investigate the long-range transboundary PM_2.5 in the study areas.

RESULTS

We found that morning PEFs were adversely associated with higher levels of sulfate (- 1.61 L/min; 95% CI: - 3.07, - 0.15) in Nagasaki city and organic carbon (OC) (- 1.02 L/min; 95% CI: - 1.94, - 0.09) in Isahaya city, per interquartile range (IQR) increase at lag1. In addition, we observed consistent findings for worsening asthma, with higher odds of severe PEF decline in the morning for sulfate (odds ratio (OR) = 2.31; 95% CI: 1.12, 4.77) and ammonium (OR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.84) in Nagasaki city and OC (OR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.15) in Isahaya city, per IQR increase at lag1. The significant chemical species were higher on days that could be largely attributed to the path of Northeast China origin (for sulfate and ammonium) or both the same path and local sources (for OC) than by other clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the differential effects of PM_2.5 fractions on lung function among asthmatic children in urban areas, where the Japanese national standards of air quality have been nearly met. Continuous efforts to promote mitigation actions and public awareness of hazardous transboundary air pollution are needed to protect susceptible children with asthma.

Early Chronic Memantine Treatment-Induced Transcriptomic Changes in Wild-Type and Shank2-Mutant Mice

Shank2 is an excitatory postsynaptic scaffolding protein strongly implicated in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Shank2-mutant mice with a homozygous deletion of exons 6 and 7 (Shank2-KO mice) show decreased NMDA receptor (NMDAR) function and autistic-like behaviors at juvenile [∼postnatal day (P21)] and adult (>P56) stages that are rescued by NMDAR activation. However, at ∼P14, these mice show the opposite change – increased NMDAR function; moreover, suppression of NMDAR activity with early, chronic memantine treatment during P7–21 prevents NMDAR hypofunction and autistic-like behaviors at later (∼P21 and >P56) stages. To better understand the mechanisms underlying this rescue, we performed RNA-Seq gene-set enrichment analysis of forebrain transcriptomes from wild-type (WT) and Shank2-KO juvenile (P25) mice treated early and chronically (P7–21) with vehicle or memantine. Vehicle-treated Shank2-KO mice showed upregulation of synapse-related genes and downregulation of ribosome- and mitochondria-related genes compared with vehicle-treated WT mice. They also showed a transcriptomic pattern largely opposite that observed in ASD (reverse-ASD pattern), based on ASD-related/risk genes and cell-type–specific genes. In memantine-treated Shank2-KO mice, chromatin-related genes were upregulated; mitochondria, extracellular matrix (ECM), and actin-related genes were downregulated; and the reverse-ASD pattern was weakened compared with that in vehicle-treated Shank2-KO mice. In WT mice, memantine treatment, which does not alter NMDAR function, upregulated synaptic genes and downregulated ECM genes; memantine-treated WT mice also exhibited a reverse-ASD pattern. Therefore, early chronic treatment of Shank2-KO mice with memantine alters expression of chromatin, mitochondria, ECM, actin, and ASD-related genes.

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.

METHODS

Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

Bayesian semiparametric mixed effects models for meta-analysis of the literature data : An application to cadmium toxicity studies

We propose Bayesian semiparametric mixed effects models with measurement error to analyze the literature data collected from multiple studies in a meta-analytic framework. We explore this methodology for risk assessment in cadmium toxicity studies, where the primary objective is to investigate dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium concentrations and β 2 -microglobulin. In the proposed model, a nonlinear association between exposure and response is described by a Gaussian process with shape restrictions, and study-specific random effects are modeled to have either normal or unknown distributions with Dirichlet process mixture priors. In addition, nonparametric Bayesian measurement error models are incorporated to flexibly account for the uncertainty resulting from the usage of a surrogate measurement of a true exposure. We apply the proposed model to analyze cadmium toxicity data imposing shape constraints along with measurement errors and study-specific random effects across varying characteristics, such as population gender, age, or ethnicity.

Robust and distributed neural representation of action values

Studies in rats, monkeys, and humans have found action-value signals in multiple regions of the brain. These findings suggest that action-value signals encoded in these brain structures bias choices toward higher expected rewards. However, previous estimates of action-value signals might have been inflated by serial correlations in neural activity and also by activity related to other decision variables. Here, we applied several statistical tests based on permutation and surrogate data to analyze neural activity recorded from the striatum, frontal cortex, and hippocampus. The results show that previously identified action-value signals in these brain areas cannot be entirely accounted for by concurrent serial correlations in neural activity and action value. We also found that neural activity related to action value is intermixed with signals related to other decision variables. Our findings provide strong evidence for broadly distributed neural signals related to action value throughout the brain.

Nonparametric Bayesian functional two-part random effects model for longitudinal semicontinuous data analysis

Longitudinal semicontinuous data, characterized by repeated measures of a large portion of zeros and continuous positive values, are frequently encountered in many applications including biomedical, epidemiological, and social science studies. Two-part random effects models (TPREM) have been used to investigate the association between such longitudinal semicontinuous data and covariates accounting for the within-subject correlation. The existing TPREM is, however, limited to incorporate a functional covariate, which is often available in a longitudinal study. Moreover, the existing TPREM typically assumes the normality of subject-specific random effects, which can be easily violated when there exists a subgroup structure. In this article, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian functional TPREM to assess the relationship between the longitudinal semicontinuous outcome and various types of covariates including a functional covariate. The proposed model also relaxes the normality assumption for the random effects through a Dirichlet process mixture of normals, which allows for identifying an underlying subgroup structure. The methodology is illustrated through an application to social insurance expenditure data collected by the Korean Welfare Panel Study and a simulation study.

Comparison of climatic factors on mosquito abundance at US Army Garrison Humphreys, Republic of Korea

Introduction

A number of studies have been conducted on the relationship between the distribution of mosquito abundance and meteorological variables. However, few studies have specifically provided specific ranges of temperatures for estimating the maximum abundance of mosquitoes as an empirical basis for climatic dynamics for estimating mosquito-borne infectious disease risks.

Methods

Adult mosquitoes were collected for three consecutive nights/week using Mosquito Magnet® Independence® model traps during 2018 and 2019 at US Army Garrison (USAG) Humphreys, Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea (ROK). An estimate of daily mean temperatures (provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration) were distributed at the maximum abundance for selected species of mosquitoes using daily mosquito collection data after controlling for mosquito ecological cycles and environmental factors.

Results

Using the Monte-Carlo simulation, the overall mosquito population abundance peaked at 22.7°C (2.5^th—97.5^th: 21.7°C–23.8°C). Aedes albopictus, vector of Zika, chikungunya, dengue fever and other viruses, abundance peaked at 24.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th, 22.3°C–25.6°C), while Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) vectors, e.g., Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens, peaked at 24.3°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–26.3°C) and 22.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–25.2°C), respectively. Members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group, some of which are vivax malaria vectors in the ROK, abundance peaked at 22.4°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.5°C–23.8°C).

Conclusion

The empirical mean temperature ranges for maximum abundance were determined for each mosquito species collected at USAG Humphreys. These data contributed to the identification of relative mosquito abundance patterns for estimating mosquito-borne disease risks and developing and implementing disease prevention practices.

Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors

It has been reported that suicide is associated with ambient temperature; however, the heterogeneity in this association and its underlying factors have not been extensively investigated. Therefore, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the temperature-suicide association and examined climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors that may underlie such heterogeneity. We analyzed the daily time-series data for the suicide counts and ambient temperature, which were collected for the 47 prefectures of Japan from 1972 to 2015, using a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the prefecture-specific temperature-suicide association was estimated by using a generalized linear model. In the second stage, the prefecture-specific associations were pooled, and key factors explaining the spatial and temporal variation were identified by using mixed effects meta-regression. Results showed that there is an inverted J-shape nonlinear association between temperature and suicide; the suicide risk increased with temperature but leveled off above 24.4 °C. The nationwide relative risk (RR) for the maximum suicide temperature versus 5th temperature percentile (2.9 °C) was estimated as 1.26 (95% CI: 1.22, 1.29). The RRs were larger for females than for males (1.32 vs. 1.22) and larger for elderly people (≥65 y) than for the non-elderly (15-64 y) (1.51 vs. 1.18). The RRs were larger for rural prefectures, which are characterized by smaller population, higher proportions of females and elderly people, and lower levels of financial capability and the proportion of highly educated people. The RRs were also larger in colder and less humid prefectures. These findings may help in understanding the potential mechanism of the temperature-suicide association and projecting the future risk of suicide under climate change.

Temporal Trend of Aedes albopictus in Local Urban Parks of the Republic of Korea

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was first reported in the Republic of Korea in 1941 (Suwon, Gyeonggi Province). Recently, a mosquito-monitoring program was established in response to the potential development of autochthonous infections of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, to identify the regional characteristics of Ae. albopictus in Suwon. Daily collections of adult mosquitoes were conducted using Blackhole UV-LED traps and BG-Sentinel traps baited with octenol, carbon dioxide or both at five sites in Suwon (Sungkyunkwan University, Manseok, Seoho, Olympic, and Jungang parks) from 1 July to 1 November 2016. Based on the ecological cycle of mosquitoes, an estimated association between the daily mean temperatures [2 wk prior to the collection date (lag 2 wk)] and relative population abundance were developed using a generalized linear model. The overall proportion of female mosquitoes collected from all traps was 88.3%. Higher female trap indices were observed for mosquitoes collected at BG-Sentinel traps. Additionally, the BG-sentinel trap was more effective collecting Ae. albopictus. Culex pipiens (Coquillett) was the most frequently collected mosquito using UV-LED traps, followed by Ae. vexans nipponii (Theobald), Ochlerotatus koreicus (Edwards), Cx. inatomi (Kamimura and Wada), and members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group. Within a certain temperature range, daily mean temperatures 2 wk prior to the collection period was significantly associated with a maximum abundance of Ae. albopictus (P < 0.05) at 26.2°C (95% confidence interval: 24.3-29.4°C). The BG-Sentinel trap is an effective trap for monitoring relative population abundance of Ae. albopictus, and trap catches are significantly correlated with daily mean temperatures.

Health Effects of Asian Dust: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Potential adverse health effects of Asian dust exposure have been reported, but systematic reviews and quantitative syntheses are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

We reviewed epidemiologic studies that assessed the risk of mortality, hospital admissions, and symptoms/dysfunction associated with exposure to Asian dust.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science to identify studies that reported the association between Asian dust exposure and human health outcomes. We conducted separate meta-analyses using a random-effects model for mortality and hospital admissions for a specific health outcome and assessed pooled estimates for each lag when at least three studies were available for a specific lag.

RESULTS

We identified 89 studies that met our inclusion criteria for the systematic review, and 21 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimates (percentage changes) of mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes for Asian dust days vs. non-Asian dust days were 2.33% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76, 3.93] increase at lag 0 and 3.99% (95% CI: 0.08, 8.06) increase at lag 3, respectively. The increased risk for hospital admissions for respiratory disease, asthma, and pneumonia peaked at lag 3 by 8.85% (95% CI: 0.80, 17.55), 14.55% (95% CI: 6.74, 22.94), and 8.51% (95% CI: 2.89, 14.44), respectively. Seven of 12 studies reported reduced peak expiratory flow, and 16 of 21 studies reported increased respiratory symptoms associated with Asian dust exposure. There were substantial variations between the studies in definitions of Asian dust, study designs, model specifications, and confounder controls.

DISCUSSION

We found evidence of increased mortality and hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory events. However, the number of studies included in the meta-analysis was not large and further evidences are merited to strengthen our conclusions. Standardized protocols for epidemiological studies would facilitate interstudy comparisons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5312.

Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model

Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.

Highlights of the updated Dutch evidence- and consensus-based guideline on psoriasis 2017

Linked Comment: https://doi.org/10.1111/bjd.17390.

Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study

BACKGROUND

Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.

RESULTS

A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

Poor agreement between the automated risk assessment of a smartphone application for skin cancer detection and the rating by dermatologists

Background

Several smartphone applications (app) with an automated risk assessment claim to be able to detect skin cancer at an early stage. Various studies that have evaluated these apps showed mainly poor performance. However, all studies were done in patients and lesions were mainly selected by a specialist.

Objectives

To investigate the performance of the automated risk assessment of an app by comparing its assessment to that of a dermatologist in lesions selected by the participants.

Methods

Participants of a National Skin Cancer Day were enrolled in a multicentre study. Skin lesions indicated by the participants were analysed by the automated risk assessment of the app prior to blinded rating by the dermatologist. The ratings of the automated risk assessment were compared to the assessment and diagnosis of the dermatologist. Due to the setting of the Skin Cancer Day, lesions were not verified by histopathology.

Results

We included 125 participants (199 lesions). The app was not able to analyse 90 cases (45%) of which nine BCC, four atypical naevi and one lentigo maligna. Thirty lesions (67%) with a high and 21 with a medium risk (70%) rating by the app were diagnosed as benign naevi or seborrhoeic keratoses. The interobserver agreement between the ratings of the automated risk assessment and the dermatologist was poor (weighted kappa = 0.02; 95% CI −0.08‐0.12; P = 0.74).

Conclusions

The rating of the automated risk assessment was poor. Further investigations about the diagnostic accuracy in real‐life situations are needed to provide consumers with reliable information about this healthcare application.

Associations of chemical composition and sources of PM2.5 with lung function of severe asthmatic adults in a low air pollution environment of urban Nagasaki, Japan

Previous studies have linked ambient PM_2.5 to decreased pulmonary function, but the influence of specific chemical elements and emission sources on the severe asthmatic is not well understood. We examined the mass, chemical constituents, and sources of PM_2.5 for short-term associations with the pulmonary function of adults with severe asthma in a low air pollution environment in urban Nagasaki, Japan. We recruited 35 asthmatic adults and obtained the daily record of morning peak expiratory flow (PEF) in spring 2014-2016. PM_2.5 filters were extracted from an air quality monitoring station (178 days) and measured for 27 chemical elements. Source apportionment was performed using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). We fitted generalized linear model with generalized estimating equation (GEE) method to estimate changes in PEF (from personal monthly maximum) and odds of severe respiratory deterioration (first ≥ 15% PEF reduction within a 1-week interval) associated with mass, constituents, and sources of PM_2.5, with adjustment for temperature and relative humidity. Constituent sulfate (SO₄^2-) and PM_2.5 from oil combustion and traffic were associated with reduced PEF. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in SO₄^2- (3.7 μg/m³, average lags 0-1) was associated with a decrease of 0.38% (95% confidence interval = -0.75% to -0.001%). An IQR increase in oil combustion and traffic-sourced PM_2.5 (2.64 μg/m³, lag 1) was associated with a decrease of 0.33% (-0.62% to -0.002%). We found a larger PEF decrease associated with PM_2.5 from dust/soil on Asian Dust days. There was no evidence linking total mass and metals to reduced pulmonary function. The ventilatory capacity of adults with severe asthma is susceptible to specific constituents/sources of PM_2.5 such as sulfate and oil combustion and traffic despite active self-management of asthma and low air pollution levels in the study location.

Early Correction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor Function Improves Autistic-like Social Behaviors in Adult Shank2-/- Mice

BACKGROUND

Autism spectrum disorder involves neurodevelopmental dysregulations that lead to visible symptoms at early stages of life. Many autism spectrum disorder-related mechanisms suggested by animal studies are supported by demonstrated improvement in autistic-like phenotypes in adult animals following experimental reversal of dysregulated mechanisms. However, whether such mechanisms also act at earlier stages to cause autistic-like phenotypes is unclear.

METHODS

We used Shank2^-/- mice carrying a mutation identified in human autism spectrum disorder (exons 6 and 7 deletion) and combined electrophysiological and behavioral analyses to see whether early pathophysiology at pup stages is different from late pathophysiology at juvenile and adult stages and whether correcting early pathophysiology can normalize late pathophysiology and abnormal behaviors in juvenile and adult mice.

RESULTS

Early correction of a dysregulated mechanism in young mice prevents manifestation of autistic-like social behaviors in adult mice. Shank2^-/- mice, known to display N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) hypofunction and autistic-like behaviors at postweaning stages after postnatal day 21 (P21), show the opposite synaptic phenotype-NMDAR hyperfunction-at an earlier preweaning stage (∼P14). Moreover, this NMDAR hyperfunction at P14 rapidly shifts to NMDAR hypofunction after weaning (∼P24). Chronic suppression of the early NMDAR hyperfunction by the NMDAR antagonist memantine (P7-P21) prevents NMDAR hypofunction and autistic-like social behaviors from manifesting at later stages (∼P28 and P56).

CONCLUSIONS

Early NMDAR hyperfunction leads to late NMDAR hypofunction and autistic-like social behaviors in Shank2^-/- mice, and early correction of NMDAR dysfunction has the long-lasting effect of preventing autistic-like social behaviors from developing at later stages.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables.

METHODS

We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors.

RESULTS

MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated (p<0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Eighteen-month Clinical Study of Universal Adhesives in Noncarious Cervical Lesions

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical performance of Scotchbond Universal (3M Oral Care) and Prime & Bond Elect (Dentsply Sirona) in the restoration of noncarious cervical lesions (NCCLs).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This was a randomized controlled clinical trial involving 63 subjects. Two hundred and three NCCLs were restored using Scotchbond Universal and Prime & Bond Elect using both an etch-and-rinse and a self-etch technique. Lesions were notch-shaped NCCLs, and the restorations were placed without any mechanical retention. Restorations were finished immediately after placement and scored with regard to retention, marginal discoloration, marginal adaptation, and secondary caries. Similar assessment of the restorations was performed 18 months after placement. Logistic regression was performed for each outcome separately with a compound symmetric variance-covariance structure assumed to consider a correlation of restorations within subjects. All analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.4 (SAS Inc).

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty-eight teeth (77.8% of the restorations placed) in 46 subjects (73% of subjects enrolled) were available for the 18-month follow-up. A statistically significant difference was reached only for the comparison Scotchbond Universal/self-etch (SU_SE) and Prime & Bond Elect/etch-and-rinse (PBE_E&R) groups ( p=0.01), where a restoration with SU_SE was 66% less likely to maintain a score of Alpha for marginal discoloration than a restoration performed with PBE_E&R.

CONCLUSIONS

Scotchbond Universal and Prime & Bond Elect presented acceptable clinical performance after 18 months of clinical service. However, Scotchbond Universal, when applied with a self-etch approach, did demonstrate a relatively high level of marginal discoloration when compared to the other groups.

Air Pollution and Suicide in 10 Cities in Northeast Asia: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence suggesting an association between air pollution and suicide. However, previous findings varied depending on the type of air pollutant and study location.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between air pollutants and suicide in 10 large cities in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

METHODS

We used a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to estimate the short-term association between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter ≤10μm (PM₁₀), aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM_2.5), and PM_10–2.5] and suicide, adjusted for weather factors, day-of-week, long-term time trends, and season. Then, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the city-specific effect estimates for NO₂, SO₂, and PM₁₀ across 10 cities and for PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5 across 3 cities. We first fitted single-pollutant models, followed by two-pollutant models to examine the robustness of the associations.

RESULTS

Higher risk of suicide was associated with higher levels of NO₂, SO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_10–2.5 over multiple days. The combined relative risks (RRs) were 1.019 for NO₂ (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999, 1.039), 1.020 for SO₂ (95% CI: 1.005, 1.036), 1.016 for PM₁₀ (95% CI: 1.004, 1.029), and 1.019 for PM_10–2.5 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.033) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 0-1 d average level of each pollutant. We found no evidence of an association for PM_2.5. Some of the associations, particularly for SO₂ and NO₂, were attenuated after adjusting for a second pollutant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that higher levels of air pollution may be associated with suicide, and further research is merited to understand the underlying mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2223.

A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

BACKGROUND

Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation.

METHODS

Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985-2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population.

RESULTS

Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45-1.66% to 0.15-0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57-15.43% to 2.16-8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

Monte Carlo simulation-based estimation for the minimum mortality temperature in temperature-mortality association study

BACKGROUND

Rich literature has reported that there exists a nonlinear association between temperature and mortality. One important feature in the temperature-mortality association is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). The commonly used approach for estimating the MMT is to determine the MMT as the temperature at which mortality is minimized in the estimated temperature-mortality association curve. Also, an approximate bootstrap approach was proposed to calculate the standard errors and the confidence interval for the MMT. However, the statistical properties of these methods were not fully studied.

METHODS

Our research assessed the statistical properties of the previously proposed methods in various types of the temperature-mortality association. We also suggested an alternative approach to provide a point and an interval estimates for the MMT, which improve upon the previous approach if some prior knowledge is available on the MMT. We compare the previous and alternative methods through a simulation study and an application. In addition, as the MMT is often used as a reference temperature to calculate the cold- and heat-related relative risk (RR), we examined how the uncertainty in the MMT affects the estimation of the RRs.

RESULTS

The previously proposed method of estimating the MMT as a point (indicated as Argmin2) may increase bias or mean squared error in some types of temperature-mortality association. The approximate bootstrap method to calculate the confidence interval (indicated as Empirical1) performs properly achieving near 95% coverage but the length can be unnecessarily extremely large in some types of the association. We showed that an alternative approach (indicated as Empirical2), which can be applied if some prior knowledge is available on the MMT, works better reducing the bias and the mean squared error in point estimation and achieving near 95% coverage while shortening the length of the interval estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to estimate the MMT either as a point or as an interval was shown to perform well particularly when some prior knowledge is incorporated to reduce the uncertainty. The MMT uncertainty also can affect the estimation for the MMT-referenced RR and ignoring the MMT uncertainty in the RR estimation may lead to invalid results with respect to the bias in point estimation and the coverage in interval estimation.