An Overview of Mycorrhiza in Pines: Research, Species, and Applications

In the latest literature, climate models show that the conditions for pines, spruces, larches, and birches will deteriorate significantly. In Poland, as well as in other European countries, there are already signs of the decline of these species. This review article deals with the symbiotic relationships between fungi and plants, which can hardly be overestimated, using the example of pine trees. These are the oldest known symbiotic relationships, which are of great benefit to both components and can help plants, in particular, survive periods of severe drought and the attack of pathogens on the roots. This article describes symbioses and their causal conditions, as well as the mycorrhizal components of pine trees and their properties; characterizes ectomycorrhizal fungi and their mushroom-forming properties; and provides examples of the cultivation of pure fungal cultures, with particular attention to the specificity of the mycorrhizal structure and its effects on the growth and development of Pinus species. Finally, the role of mycorrhiza in plant protection and pathogen control is described.

West Nile virus: The current situation in Egypt

Background and Aim

Due to climatic changes, arthropod-borne viruses have become a global health concern. In Egypt, West Nile virus (WNV) was initially detected in humans in 1950 and then in 1951, 1954, 1968, and 1989. Although WNV infection has been recorded in numerous Middle Eastern countries, its prevalence among the equine population in Egypt is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the current situation of vector-borne WNV in Egypt, estimate its seroprevalence, and assess the associated risk factors.

Materials and Methods

We screened 1100 sera samples and nasal swabs from the same equids, 156 mosquito pools, and 336 oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs from migratory birds for WNV. The sera were investigated for the presence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) against WNV-prE. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was used to detect WNV RNA in the nasal swab samples, mosquito pools, and migratory birds' oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs.

Results

The seroprevalence showed positive IgG in sera samples collected from different districts. The data showed that horses were 1.65-fold more susceptible than donkeys, with male being 1.45 times more susceptible than females. Moreover, the tested equids samples were divided into three groups based on their age: <5 years, 5-10 years, and >10 years. The 5-10-year group was 1.1 and 1.61 times more vulnerable to infection than the <5- and >10 year groups. All the sera samples were negative for IgM. The nasal swabs from equids, oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs from migratory birds, and mosquito samples tested negative for WNV by molecular detection.

Conclusion

Based on the obtained data, we recommend that effective control programs should be implemented to enable epidemiological investigations and understand the current situation of WNV in Egypt.

Comparative phylogeography reveals the demographic patterns of neotropical ancient mountain species

Mountains are renowned for their bountiful biodiversity. Explanations on the origin of such abundant life are usually regarded to their orogenic history. However, ancient mountain systems with geological stability also exhibit astounding levels of number of species and endemism, as illustrated by the Brazilian Quartzitic Mountains (BQM) in Eastern South America. Thus, cycles of climatic changes over the last couple million years are usually assumed to play an important role in the origin of mountainous biota. These climatic oscillations potentially isolated and reconnected adjacent populations, a phenomenon known as flickering connectivity, accelerating speciation events due to range fragmentation, dispersion, secondary contact, and hybridization. To evaluate the role of the climatic fluctuations on the diversification of the BQM biota, we estimated the ancient demography of distinct endemic species of animals and plants using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation analysis and Ecological Niche Modelling. Additionally, we evaluated if climatic oscillations have driven a genetic spatial congruence in the genetic structure of codistributed species from the Espinhaço Range, one of the main BQM areas. Our results show that the majority of plant lineages underwent a synchronous expansion over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 21 thousand years ago), although we could not obtain a clear demographic pattern for the animal lineages. We also obtained a signal of a congruent phylogeographic break between lineages endemic to the Espinhaço Range, suggesting how ancient climatic oscillations might have driven the evolutionary history of the Espinhaço's biota.

Emerging parasites and vectors in a rapidly changing world: from ecology to management

Global changes have influenced our societies in several ways with both positive (e.g., technology, transportation, and food security), and negative impacts (e.g., mental health problems, spread of diseases, and pandemics). Overall, these changes have affected the distribution patterns of parasites and arthropod vectors with the introduction and spreading of alien species in new geographical areas, eventually posing new challenges in public health. In this framework, the Acta Tropica Special Issue "Emerging parasites and vectors in a rapidly changing world: from ecology to management" provides a focus on the biology, ecology and management of emerging parasites and vectors of human and veterinary importance. Herein we review and discuss novel studies dealing with interactions of parasites and vectors with animals in changing environmental settings. In our opinion, a special focus on the implementation of management strategies of parasitic diseases to face anthropogenic environmental changes still represent a priority for public health. In the final section, key research challenges in this rapidly changing scenario are outlined.

An Overview of Anthropogenic Actions as Drivers for Emerging and Re-Emerging Zoonotic Diseases

Population growth and industrialization have led to a race for greater food and supply productivity. As a result, the occupation and population of forest areas, contact with wildlife and their respective parasites and vectors, the trafficking and consumption of wildlife, the pollution of water sources, and the accumulation of waste occur more frequently. Concurrently, the agricultural and livestock production for human consumption has accelerated, often in a disorderly way, leading to the deforestation of areas that are essential for the planet's climatic and ecological balance. The effects of human actions on other ecosystems such as the marine ecosystem cause equally serious damage, such as the pollution of this habitat, and the reduction of the supply of fish and other animals, causing the coastal population to move to the continent. The sum of these factors leads to an increase in the demands such as housing, basic sanitation, and medical assistance, making these populations underserved and vulnerable to the effects of global warming and to the emergence of emerging and re-emerging diseases. In this article, we discuss the anthropic actions such as climate changes, urbanization, deforestation, the trafficking and eating of wild animals, as well as unsustainable agricultural intensification which are drivers for emerging and re-emerging of zoonotic pathogens such as viral (Ebola virus, hantaviruses, Hendravirus, Nipah virus, rabies, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease-2), bacterial (leptospirosis, Lyme borreliosis, and tuberculosis), parasitic (leishmaniasis) and fungal pathogens, which pose a substantial threat to the global community. Finally, we shed light on the urgent demand for the implementation of the One Health concept as a collaborative global approach to raise awareness and educate people about the science behind and the battle against zoonotic pathogens to mitigate the threat for both humans and animals.

Comparative and predictive phylogeography in the South American diagonal of open formations: Unravelling the biological and environmental influences on multitaxon demography

Phylogeography investigates historical drivers of the geographical distribution of intraspecific lineages. Particular attention has been given to ecological, climatic and geological processes in the diversification of the Neotropical biota. Several species sampled across the South American diagonal of open formations (DOF), comprising the Caatinga, Cerrado and Chaco biomes, experienced range shifts coincident with Quaternary climatic changes. However, comparative studies across different spatial, temporal and biological scales on DOF species are still meagre. Here, we combine phylogeographical model selection and machine learning predictive frameworks to investigate the influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on several plant and animal species from the DOF. We assembled mitochondrial/chloroplastic DNA sequences in public repositories and inferred the demographic responses of 44 species, comprising 70 intraspecific lineages of plants, lizards, frogs, spiders and insects. We then built a random forest model using biotic and abiotic information to identify the best predictors of demographic responses in the Pleistocene. Finally, we assessed the temporal synchrony of species demographic responses with hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation. Biotic variables related to population connectivity, gene flow and habitat preferences largely predicted how species responded to Pleistocene climatic changes, and demographic changes were synchronous primarily during the Middle Pleistocene. Although 22 (~31%) lineages underwent demographic expansion, presumably associated with the spread of aridity during the glacial Pleistocene periods, our findings suggest that nine lineages (~13%) exhibited the opposite response due to taxon-specific attributes.

Extreme Weather Events Enhance DOC Consumption in a Subtropical Freshwater Ecosystem: A Multiple-Typhoon Analysis

Empirical evidence suggests that the frequency/intensity of extreme weather events might increase in a warming climate. It remains unclear how these events quantitatively impact dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a pool approximately equal to CO₂ in the atmosphere. This study conducted a weekly-to-biweekly sampling in a deep subtropical reservoir in the typhoon-prevailing season (June to September) from 2004 to 2009, at which 33 typhoons with distinctive precipitation (<1~362 mm d^-1) had passed the study site. Our analyses indicated that the phosphate (i.e., DIP; <10~181 nMP) varied positively with the intensity of the accumulated rainfall 2-weeks prior; bacteria growth rate (0.05~3.68 d^-1) behaved as a positive function of DIP, and DOC concentrations (54~119 µMC) changed negatively with bacterial production (1.2~26.1 mgC m^-3 d^-1). These implied that the elevated DIP-loading in the hyperpycnal flow induced by typhoons could fuel bacteria growth and cause a significant decline of DOC concentrations. As the typhoon's intensity increases, many mineral-limited lentic freshwater ecosystems might become more like a CO₂ source injecting more CO₂ back to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback loop that might generate severer extreme weather events.

Changes in Aphid-Plant Interactions under Increased Temperature

Thermal stress in living organisms causes an imbalance between the processes of creating and neutralizing reactive oxygen species (ROS). The work aims to explain changes in the aphid-host plant interaction due to an increase in temperature. Tests were carried out at three constant temperatures (20, 25, or 28 °C). Firstly, changes in development of Macrosiphum rosae were determined. Secondly, the activity of enzymatic markers (superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione S-transferase (GST), β-glucosidase, polyphenol oxidase (PPO), and peroxidase (POD)) in aphid M. rosae tissues and host plant were analyzed at all temperatures. An increase in temperature to 28 °C had a negative effect on the biology of M. rosae by shortening the period of reproduction and longevity, thus reducing the demographic parameters and fecundity. Two stages of the aphid's defensive response to short-term (24-96 h) and long-term (2 weeks) thermal stress were observed. Aphid defense responses varied considerably with temperature and were highest at 28 °C. In turn, for the plants, which were exposed to both abiotic stress caused by elevated temperature and biotic stress caused by aphid feeding, their enzymatic defense was more effective at 20 °C, when enzyme activities at their highest were observed.

Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change

The article examines the problems and development prospects for the international transit of goods along the NSR. The existing restrictions on increasing freight traffic up to 80 million tons per year declared in program documents are identified. An option for its enhancement based on the domestic fleet of Arctic cargo ships is proposed. The article summarizes the main shortcomings of earlier studies assessing the transit capabilities of the NSR. A model for assessing the optimal number of ships for the transportation of goods is proposed taking into account climatic, physical-geographical, technological, and temporal constraints and risks. Within the framework of the model, the cost of goods transportation was estimated for implementing two scenarios of transit traffic.

Endophytic fungus diversity in soybean plants submitted to conditions of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature

Global climatic changes can have drastic impacts on plant species, including severe consequences for the agricultural species productivity. Many of these species present important mutualisms with endophytic fungi that positively influence their performance. The present study evaluated whether the increases in CO2 and temperature predicted for the year 2100 may cause changes in foliar carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in soybean (Glycine max) and, consequently, the interactions with its endophytic fungi. The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature were evaluated in four treatments in open-top chambers: (i) control, (ii) increased temperature, (iii) increased CO2, and (iv) increased CO2 and temperature. Increased atmospheric CO2 resulted in decreased foliar N concentration, while increased temperature increased it. A total of 16 taxa of endophytic fungi were identified based on sequencing internal transcribed spacer regions of rRNA subunits. Increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature were observed to potentially modify the endophytic mycobiota of soybean plants. The results suggest that the fungi species substitution is a consequence of changes in foliar N concentration and C/N ratio. Predicted climatic changes shall affect the relationships between plant and endophytes, which in turn, will affect the performance and resistance of soybean, one of the most important crops in the world.

Study of the Relationship between the Average Annual Temperature of Atmospheric Air and the Number of Tick-Bitten Humans in the North of European Russia

In recent decades, a considerable increase in the number of tick-bitten humans has been recorded in the north of European Russia. At the same time, significant climatic changes, such as an increase in air temperature, were noticed in this region. The northern border of the ixodidae distribution area lies in the north of European Russia, therefore the analysis of the population dynamics is of particular interest regarding the possible impact of the climate changes. Unfortunately, in such a large territory field, studies on tick abundance are very difficult. In our study, the official statistics for the number of tick-bitten humans were used. This kind of statistical analysis has been conducted in the Russian Federation for many years, and can be used for the estimation of climate change impact on tick abundance. Statistical data on tick-bitten humans have been collected in three large regions for several decades. For the same regions, the average annual air temperature was calculated and modeled. An S-shaped distribution of the number of victims depending on the average annual air temperature was established, which can be described as “Verhulst’s law”, or logistic function. However, the development of the population does not depend on time, but on the temperature of the ambient air.

A relic of the past: current genetic patterns of the palaeoendemic tree Nothofagus macrocarpa were shaped by climatic oscillations in central Chile

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Mediterranean-type forest of central Chile is considered a 'biodiversity hotspot' and a relic of a wider ancient distribution produced by past climatic oscillations. Nothofagus macrocarpa, commonly known as 'roble de Santiago', is a threatened palaeoendemic of this forest, poorly represented in the protected area system. This tree has been repeatedly misidentified as the sister species N. obliqua, which has affected its recognition and protection. Only a few populations of N. macrocarpa remain within a matrix of intensive land use that has been affected by recent forest fires. We tested the hypothesis that current populations of N. macrocarpa are a relic state of a previously widespread range, with the aim of contributing to its identification, its biogeographical history and the design of conservation measures using genetic information.

METHODS

We analysed remnant N. macrocarpa forests using nuclear (nDNA) and chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences, conducted phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses to reconstruct its biogeographical history, and assessed microsatellites [simple sequence repeats (SSRs)] to determine contemporary patters of diversity within and among all remnant populations. We also examined the degree of past, current and potential future isolation of N. macrocarpa populations using ecological niche models (ENMs).

KEY RESULTS

The species N. macrocarpa was confirmed by nDNA sequences, as previously suggested by chromosomal analysis. Small isolated populations of N. macrocarpa exhibited moderate to high genetic diversity according to SSRs. cpDNA analysis revealed a marked past latitudinal geographical structure, whereas analysis of SSRs did not find such current structure. ENM analyses revealed local expansion-contraction of the N. macrocarpa range during warmer periods, particularly in the northern and central ranges where basal-most cpDNA haplotypes were detected, and recent expansion to the south of the distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic patterns confirm that N. macrocarpa is a distinct species and suggest a marked latitudinal relic structure in at least two evolutionarily significant units, despite contemporary among-population gene flow. This information must be considered when choosing individuals (seeds and/or propagules) for restoration purposes, to avoid the admixture of divergent genetic stocks.

Emerging and threatening vector-borne zoonoses in the world and in Europe: a brief update

Climatic changes, landscape management, massive human, animal and commodity transportation represent important factors which are contributing to the spread of zoonotic diseases. The environmental and socioeconomic factors affecting the incidence of vector-borne zoonoses and possibilities for the reduction of disease impacts are discussed in the article. The most important zoonoses with expanding area of incidence and/or increasing occurrence are summarized, with special emphasis on the European region. While some diseases and their respective pathogens are indigenous to Europe (e.g. Lyme disease), others have been introduced to Europe from tropical areas (e.g. chikungunya or dengue fever). These emerging diseases may represent a serious threat in near future and better understanding of their spreading mechanisms, pathogenesis and consequent treatment is very important.

Legume genetic resources and transcriptome dynamics under abiotic stress conditions

Grain legumes are an important source of nutrition and income for billions of consumers and farmers around the world. However, the low productivity of new legume varieties, due to the limited genetic diversity available for legume breeding programmes and poor policymaker support, combined with an increasingly unpredictable global climate is resulting in a large gap between current yields and the increasing demand for legumes as food. Hence, there is a need for novel approaches to develop new high-yielding legume cultivars that are able to cope with a range of environmental stressors. Next-generation technologies are providing the tools that could enable the more rapid and cost-effective genomic and transcriptomic studies for most major crops, allowing the identification of key functional and regulatory genes involved in abiotic stress resistance. In this review, we provide an overview of the recent achievements regarding abiotic stress resistance in a wide range of legume crops and highlight the transcriptomic and miRNA approaches that have been used. In addition, we critically evaluate the availability and importance of legume genetic resources with desirable abiotic stress resistance traits.

[The comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of the Russian Far East with reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism]

BACKGROUND

in the framework of the current tendency toward the further development of the socio-economic sphere in the Russian Far East (RFE), the relevant investigations aimed at creating the comfortable conditions for recreational and touristic activities as well as for rehabilitative therapy of the local population acquire the increasingly greater importance.

AIM

The objective of the present study was the comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of interest with special reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was designed to evaluate the health resort, recreational, and therapeutic resources of the selected areas of the Russian Far East with special reference to the data provided by the climate monitoring stations during the periods from December to March of 1965-2014. The following methods were used for the purpose: the comparative analysis of climatic information and elementary methods of mathematical statistics.

RESULTS

The evaluation of the study territory in terms of the bioclimatic comfort gave evidence that the southern regions of Primorye as well as Sakhalin island, and Kamchatka peninsula provide the most favorable conditions for the therapeutic and recreational activities, leisure and sports in the winter seasons.

CONCLUSION

The analysis of the studied bioclimatic indices of comfort at different territories of the Russian Far East has demonstrated their great potential for the further development of recreation services, rehabilitation, sporting and touristic activities. The study has revealed the new opportunities for the enhancement of bioclimatic comfort of the region and for the improvement of the quality of life and employment of the local population.

Plant community responses to increased precipitation and belowground litter addition: Evidence from a 5-year semiarid grassland experiment

Global climate change is predicted to stimulate primary production and consequently increases litter inputs. Changing precipitation regimes together with enhanced litter inputs may affect plant community composition and structure, with consequent influence on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Responses of plant community to increased precipitation and belowground litter addition were examined lasting 5 years in a semiarid temperate grassland of northeastern China. Increased precipitation enhanced community species richness and abundance of annuals by 16.8% and 44%, but litter addition suppressed them by 25% and 54.5% after 5 years, respectively. During the study period, perennial rhizome grasses and forbs had consistent negative relationship under ambient plots, whereas positive relationship between the two functional groups was found under litter addition plots after 5 years. In addition, increased precipitation and litter addition showed significant interaction on community composition, because litter addition significantly increased biomass and abundance of rhizome grasses under increased precipitation plots but had no effect under ambient precipitation levels. Our findings emphasize the importance of water availability in modulating the responses of plants community to potentially enhanced litter inputs in the semiarid temperate grassland.

With or without you: Effects of the concurrent range expansion of an herbivore and its natural enemy on native species interactions

Global climatic changes may lead to the arrival of multiple range-expanding species from different trophic levels into new habitats, either simultaneously or in quick succession, potentially causing the introduction of manifold novel interactions into native food webs. Unraveling the complex biotic interactions between native and range-expanding species is critical to understand the impact of climate change on community ecology, but experimental evidence is lacking. In a series of laboratory experiments that simulated direct and indirect species interactions, we investigated the effects of the concurrent arrival of a range-expanding insect herbivore in Europe, Spodoptera littoralis, and its associated parasitoid Microplitis rufiventris, on the native herbivore Mamestra brassicae, and its associated parasitoid Microplitis mediator, when co-occurring on a native plant, Brassica rapa. Overall, direct interactions between the herbivores were beneficial for the exotic herbivore (higher pupal weight than the native herbivore), and negative for the native herbivore (higher mortality than the exotic herbivore). At the third trophic level, both parasitoids were unable to parasitize the herbivore they did not coexist with, but the presence of the exotic parasitoid still negatively affected the native herbivore (increased mortality) and the native parasitoid (decreased parasitism rate), through failed parasitism attempts and interference effects. Our results suggest different interaction scenarios depending on whether S. littoralis and its parasitoid arrive to the native tritrophic system separately or concurrently, as the negative effects associated with the presence of the parasitoid were dependent on the presence of the exotic herbivore. These findings illustrate the complexity and interconnectedness of multitrophic changes resulting from concurrent species arrival to new environments, and the need for integrating the ecological effects of such arrivals into the general theoretical framework of global invasion patterns driven by climatic change.

Population Genomics Reveals Speciation and Introgression between Brown Norway Rats and Their Sibling Species

Murine rodents are excellent models for study of adaptive radiations and speciation. Brown Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are successful global colonizers and the contributions of their domesticated laboratory strains to biomedical research are well established. To identify nucleotide-based speciation timing of the rat and genomic information contributing to its colonization capabilities, we analyzed 51 whole-genome sequences of wild-derived Brown Norway rats and their sibling species, R. nitidus, and identified over 20 million genetic variants in the wild Brown Norway rats that were absent in the laboratory strains, which substantially expand the reservoir of rat genetic diversity. We showed that divergence of the rat and its siblings coincided with drastic climatic changes that occurred during the Middle Pleistocene. Further, we revealed that there was a geographically widespread influx of genes between Brown Norway rats and the sibling species following the divergence, resulting in numerous introgressed regions in the genomes of admixed Brown Norway rats. Intriguing, genes related to chemical communications among these introgressed regions appeared to contribute to the population-specific adaptations of the admixed Brown Norway rats. Our data reveals evolutionary history of the Brown Norway rat, and offers new insights into the role of climatic changes in speciation of animals and the effect of interspecies introgression on animal adaptation.

Repeated short climatic change affects the epidermal differentiation program and leads to matrix remodeling in a human organotypic skin model

Human skin is subject to frequent changes in ambient temperature and humidity and needs to cope with these environmental modifications. To decipher the molecular response of human skin to repeated climatic change, a versatile model of skin equivalent subject to “hot–wet” (40°C, 80% relative humidity [RH]) or “cold–dry” (10°C, 40% RH) climatic stress repeated daily was used. To obtain an exhaustive view of the molecular mechanisms elicited by climatic change, large-scale gene expression DNA microarray analysis was performed and modulated function was determined by bioinformatic annotation. This analysis revealed several functions, including epidermal differentiation and extracellular matrix, impacted by repeated variations in climatic conditions. Some of these molecular changes were confirmed by histological examination and protein expression. Both treatments (hot–wet and cold–dry) reduced the expression of genes encoding collagens, laminin, and proteoglycans, suggesting a profound remodeling of the extracellular matrix. Strong induction of the entire family of late cornified envelope genes after cold–dry exposure, confirmed at protein level, was also observed. These changes correlated with an increase in epidermal differentiation markers such as corneodesmosin and a thickening of the stratum corneum, indicating possible implementation of defense mechanisms against dehydration. This study for the first time reveals the complex pattern of molecular response allowing adaption of human skin to repeated change in its climatic environment.

A large historical refugium explains spatial patterns of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relative role of Pleistocene climate changes in driving the geographic distribution and genetic diversity of South American species is not well known, especially from open biomes such as the Cerrado, the most diverse tropical savanna, encompassing high levels of endemism. Here the effects of Quaternary climatic changes on demographic history, distribution dynamics and genetic diversity of Dimorphandra mollis, an endemic tree species widely distributed in the Cerrado, were investigated.

METHODS

A total of 38 populations covering most of the distribution of D. mollis were analysed using internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences and nuclear microsatellite variation [simple sequence repeats (SSRs)]. The framework incorporated statistical phylogeography, coalescent analyses and ecological niche modelling (ENM).

KEY RESULTS

Different signatures of Quaternary climatic changes were found for ITS sequences and SSRs corresponding to different time slices. Coalescent analyses revealed large and constant effective population sizes, with high historical connectivity among the populations for ITS sequences and low effective population sizes and gene flow with recent population retraction for SSRs. ENMs indicated a slight geographical range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum. A large historical refugium across central Brazil was predicted. Spatially explicit analyses showed a spatial cline pattern in genetic diversity related to the paleodistribution of D. mollis and to the centre of its historical refugium.

CONCLUSIONS

The complex genetic patterns found in D. mollis are the result of a slight geographical range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum followed by population expansion to the east and south from a large refugium in the central part of the Cerrado. This historical refugium is coincident with an area predicted to be climatically stable under future climate scenarios. The identified refugium should be given high priority in conservation polices to safeguard the evolutionary potential of the species under predicted future climatic changes.

Distinct germination response of endangered and common arable weeds to reduced water potential

Arable weeds are one of the most endangered species groups in Europe. Modern agriculture and intensive land-use management are the main causes of their dramatic decline. However, besides the changes in land use, climate change may further challenge the adaptability of arable weeds. Therefore, we investigated the response pattern of arable weeds to different water potential and temperature regimes during the phase of germination. We expected that endangered arable weeds would be more sensitive to differences in water availability and temperature than common arable weeds. To this end, we set up a climate chamber experiment where we exposed seeds of five familial pairs of common and endangered arable weed species to different temperatures (5/15, 10/20 °C) and water potentials (0.0 to -1.2 MPa). The results revealed a significant relationship between the reaction of arable weed species to water availability and their Red List status. The effects of reduced water availability on total germination, mean germination time and synchrony were significantly stronger in endangered than in common arable weeds. Therefore, global climate change may present a further threat to the survival of endangered arable weed species.

Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling

BACKGROUND

Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe.

METHODS

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used.

RESULTS

In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.