A naturally occurring HA-stabilizing amino acid (HA1-Y17) in an A(H9N2) low-pathogenic influenza virus contributes to airborne transmission

IMPORTANCE

Despite the accumulation of evidence showing that airborne transmissible influenza A virus (IAV) typically has a lower pH threshold for hemagglutinin (HA) fusion activation, the underlying mechanism for such a link remains unclear. In our study, by using a pair of isogenic recombinant A(H9N2) viruses with a phenotypical difference in virus airborne transmission in a ferret model due to an acid-destabilizing mutation (HA1-Y17H) in the HA, we demonstrate that an acid-stable A(H9N2) virus possesses a multitude of advantages over its less stable counterpart, including better fitness in the ferret respiratory tract, more effective aerosol emission from infected animals, and improved host susceptibility. Our study provides supporting evidence for the requirement of acid stability in efficient airborne transmission of IAV and sheds light on fundamental mechanisms for virus airborne transmission.

Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese Mainland

BACKGROUND

Previous studies provided some evidence of meteorological factors influence seasonal influenza transmission patterns varying across regions and latitudes. However, research on seasonal influenza activities based on climate zones are still in lack. This study aims to utilize the ecological-based Köppen Geiger climate zones classification system to compare the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in Chinese Mainland and assess the feasibility of developing an early warning system.

METHODS

Weekly influenza cases number from 2014 to 2019 at the county and city level were sourced from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report Information System. Epidemic temporal indices, time series seasonality decomposition, spatial modelling theories including Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association were applied to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza transmission.

RESULTS

All climate zones had peaks in Winter-Spring season. Arid, desert, cold (BWk) showed up the first peak. Only Tropical, savannah (Aw) and Temperate, dry winter with hot summer (Cwa) zones had unique summer peak. Temperate, no dry season and hot summer (Cfa) zone had highest average incidence rate (IR) at 1.047/100,000. The Global Moran's I showed that average IR had significant clustered trend (z = 53.69, P < 0.001), with local Moran's I identified high-high cluster in Cfa and Cwa. IR differed among three age groups between climate zones (0-14 years old: F = 26.80, P < 0.001; 15-64 years old: F = 25.04, P < 0.001; Above 65 years old: F = 5.27, P < 0.001). Age group 0-14 years had highest average IR in Cwa and Cfa (IR = 6.23 and 6.21) with unique dual peaks in winter and spring season showed by seasonality decomposition.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal influenza exhibited distinct spatial and temporal patterns in different climate zones. Seasonal influenza primarily emerged in BWk, subsequently in Cfa and Cwa. Cfa, Cwa and BSk pose high risk for seasonal influenza epidemics. The research finds will provide scientific evidence for developing seasonal influenza early warning system based on climate zones.

Progress on viral and host determinants of influenza A virus species specificity

Influenza A viruses have a wide range of hosts and are highly infectious, which can cause zoonotic diseases and pose a serious public health threat to human safety. An influenza pandemic could outbreak if new strains gain the ability of human-to-human transmission, either by genetic mutation or by gene reassortment. It is an urgent issue for the scientific community to reveal the genetic basis and molecular mechanisms underlying the interspecies transmission of influenza viruses, which will provide important implications for the effective monitoring and prevention of potential influenza pandemics. In this review, we summarize the molecular determinants of influenza viruses for host adaptation, and highlight the advances in the gene mutations of the virus itself and the interaction between virus and host factors. This will help to make a theoretical reserve for the next influenza pandemic and find new strategies to fight against influenza.

BTN3A3 evasion promotes the zoonotic potential of influenza A viruses

Spillover events of avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) to humans could represent the first step in a future pandemic1. Several factors that limit the transmission and replication of avian IAVs in mammals have been identified. There are several gaps in our understanding to predict which virus lineages are more likely to cross the species barrier and cause disease in humans1. Here, we identified human BTN3A3 (butyrophilin subfamily 3 member A3)2 as a potent inhibitor of avian IAVs but not human IAVs. We determined that BTN3A3 is expressed in human airways and its antiviral activity evolved in primates. We show that BTN3A3 restriction acts primarily at the early stages of the virus life cycle by inhibiting avian IAV RNA replication. We identified residue 313 in the viral nucleoprotein (NP) as the genetic determinant of BTN3A3 sensitivity (313F or, rarely, 313L in avian viruses) or evasion (313Y or 313V in human viruses). However, avian IAV serotypes, such as H7 and H9, that spilled over into humans also evade BTN3A3 restriction. In these cases, BTN3A3 evasion is due to substitutions (N, H or Q) in NP residue 52 that is adjacent to residue 313 in the NP structure3. Thus, sensitivity or resistance to BTN3A3 is another factor to consider in the risk assessment of the zoonotic potential of avian influenza viruses.

Assessing intervention effects in a randomized trial within a social network

Studies of social networks provide unique opportunities to assess the causal effects of interventions that may impact more of the population than just those intervened on directly. Such effects are sometimes called peer or spillover effects, and may exist in the presence of interference, that is, when one individual's treatment affects another individual's outcome. Randomization-based inference (RI) methods provide a theoretical basis for causal inference in randomized studies, even in the presence of interference. In this article, we consider RI of the intervention effect in the eX-FLU trial, a randomized study designed to assess the effect of a social distancing intervention on influenza-like-illness transmission in a connected network of college students. The approach considered enables inference about the effect of the social distancing intervention on the per-contact probability of influenza-like-illness transmission in the observed network. The methods allow for interference between connected individuals and for heterogeneous treatment effects. The proposed methods are evaluated empirically via simulation studies, and then applied to data from the eX-FLU trial.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022

IMPORTANCE

Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment.

EXPOSURES

Household contacts living with a primary case.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted.

RESULTS

During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

Transmission of Human Influenza A Virus in Pigs Selects for Adaptive Mutations on the HA Gene

Influenza A viruses (FLUAV) cause respiratory diseases in many host species, including humans and pigs. The spillover of FLUAV between swine and humans has been a concern for both public health and the swine industry. With the emergence of the triple reassortant internal gene (TRIG) constellation, establishment of human-origin FLUAVs in pigs has become more common, leading to increased viral diversity. However, little is known about the adaptation processes that are needed for a human-origin FLUAV to transmit and become established in pigs. We generated a reassortant FLUAV (VIC11pTRIG) containing surface gene segments from a human FLUAV strain and internal gene segments from the 2009 pandemic and TRIG FLUAV lineages and demonstrated that it can replicate and transmit in pigs. Sequencing and variant analysis identified three mutants that emerged during replication in pigs, which were mapped near the receptor binding site of the hemagglutinin (HA). The variants replicated more efficiently in differentiated swine tracheal cells compared to the virus containing the wildtype human-origin HA, and one of them was present in all contact pigs. These results show that variants are selected quickly after replication of human-origin HA in pigs, leading to improved fitness in the swine host, likely contributing to transmission. IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses cause respiratory disease in several species, including humans and pigs. The bidirectional transmission of FLUAV between humans and pigs plays a significant role in the generation of novel viral strains, greatly impacting viral epidemiology. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that allow human FLUAV to become established in pigs. In this study, we generated reassortant viruses containing human seasonal HA and neuraminidase (NA) on different constellations of internal genes and tested their ability to replicate and transmit in pigs. We demonstrated that a virus containing a common internal gene constellation currently found in U.S. swine was able to transmit efficiently via the respiratory route. We identified a specific amino acid substitution that was fixed in the respiratory contact pigs that was associated with improved replication in primary swine tracheal epithelial cells, suggesting it was crucial for the transmissibility of the human virus in pigs.

Fair warning

"Swientists" hunt for influenza virus at hog shows, hoping to cut off the next pandemic at the pen.

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools

The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emphasized the need for evidence-based strategies for the safe operation of schools during pandemics that balance infection risk with the society's responsibility of allowing children to attend school. Due to limited empirical data, existing analyses assessing school-based interventions in pandemic situations often impose strong assumptions, for example, on the relationship between class size and transmission risk, which could bias the estimated effect of interventions, such as split classes and staggered attendance. To fill this gap in school outbreak studies, we parameterized an individual-based model that accounts for heterogeneous contact rates within and between classes and grades to a multischool outbreak data of influenza. We then simulated school outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases of ongoing threat (i.e., COVID-19) and potential threat (i.e., pandemic influenza) under a variety of interventions (changing class structures, symptom screening, regular testing, cohorting, and responsive class closures). Our results suggest that interventions changing class structures (e.g., reduced class sizes) may not be effective in reducing the risk of major school outbreaks upon introduction of a case and that other precautionary measures (e.g., screening and isolation) need to be employed. Class-level closures in response to detection of a case were also suggested to be effective in reducing the size of an outbreak.

Influenza viruses and coronaviruses: Knowns, unknowns, and common research challenges

The development of safe and effective vaccines in a record time after the emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a remarkable achievement, partly based on the experience gained from multiple viral outbreaks in the past decades. However, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis also revealed weaknesses in the global pandemic response and large gaps that remain in our knowledge of the biology of coronaviruses (CoVs) and influenza viruses, the 2 major respiratory viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we review current knowns and unknowns of influenza viruses and CoVs, and we highlight common research challenges they pose in 3 areas: the mechanisms of viral emergence and adaptation to humans, the physiological and molecular determinants of disease severity, and the development of control strategies. We outline multidisciplinary approaches and technological innovations that need to be harnessed in order to improve preparedeness to the next pandemic.

Frequency and patterns of exposure to live poultry and the potential risk of avian influenza transmission to humans in urban Bangladesh

Avian influenza is endemic in Bangladesh, where greater than 90% of poultry are marketed through live poultry markets (LPMs). We conducted a population-based cross-sectional mobile telephone survey in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh to investigate the frequency and patterns of human exposure to live poultry in LPMs and at home. Among 1047 urban residents surveyed, 74.2% (95% CI 70.9-77.2) reported exposure to live poultry in the past year, with the majority of exposure occurring on a weekly basis. While visiting LPMs was less common amongst females (40.3%, 95% CI 35.0-45.8) than males (58.9%, 95% CI 54.0-63.5), females reported greater poultry exposure through food preparation, including defeathering (13.2%, 95% CI 9.5-17.9) and eviscerating (14.8%, 95% CI 11.2-19.4) (p < 0.001). A large proportion of the urban population is frequently exposed to live poultry in a setting where avian influenza viruses are endemic in LPMs. There is thus not only ample opportunity for spillover of avian influenza infections into humans in Dhaka, Bangladesh, but also greater potential for viral reassortment which could generate novel strains with pandemic potential.

Airborne Transmission of Avian Origin H9N2 Influenza A Viruses in Mammals

Influenza A viruses (IAV) are widespread viruses affecting avian and mammalian species worldwide. IAVs from avian species can be transmitted to mammals including humans and, thus, they are of inherent pandemic concern. Most of the efforts to understand the pathogenicity and transmission of avian origin IAVs have been focused on H5 and H7 subtypes due to their highly pathogenic phenotype in poultry. However, IAV of the H9 subtype, which circulate endemically in poultry flocks in some regions of the world, have also been associated with cases of zoonotic infections. In this review, we discuss the mammalian transmission of H9N2 and the molecular factors that are thought relevant for this spillover, focusing on the HA segment. Additionally, we discuss factors that have been associated with the ability of these viruses to transmit through the respiratory route in mammalian species. The summarized information shows that minimal amino acid changes in the HA and/or the combination of H9N2 surface genes with internal genes of human influenza viruses are enough for the generation of H9N2 viruses with the ability to transmit via aerosol.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices for the use of seasonal influenza vaccination, healthcare workers, Costa Rica

INTRODUCTION

Annual seasonal influenza vaccination in healthcare workers prevents nosocomial transmission to patients, coworkers, and visitors, and reduces absenteeism. This study aimed to describe knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of seasonal influenza vaccine among public healthcare workers attending patients in Costa Rica.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of healthcare personnel attending patients in public hospitals in 2017-2018. Frequency distributions of demographics, vaccination KAP, sources of information, clinical manifestations and reasons for non-vaccination were reported. Logistic regression was used to analyze associations between exposures of interest (demographics, sources of information, knowledge, attitudes towards vaccination) and self-reported influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

We surveyed 747 healthcare workers in 2017-2018. Of 706 participants who knew their vaccination status, 55.7% were vaccinated for seasonal influenza. Only 20.7% of participants knew the influenza vaccine was an inactivated virus, and 94.6% believed the vaccine causes flu-like symptoms. Factors associated with current influenza vaccination were vaccination in previous year (aOR: 8.13; 95% CI: 5.65-11.71) and believed influenza vaccination may be harmful (aOR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44-0.89). Reasons for non-vaccination included fear of adverse effects and access limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Suboptimal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers may be attributed to misconceptions about the vaccine and limited engagement strategies focusing on healthcare workers. Appropriate interventions are needed to increase healthcare worker vaccination rates and improve their knowledge and beneficence, which would improve patient safety in hospitals.

Influenza Virus Infections in Cats

In the past, cats were considered resistant to influenza. Today, we know that they are susceptible to some influenza A viruses (IAVs) originating in other species. Usually, the outcome is only subclinical infection or a mild fever. However, outbreaks of feline disease caused by canine H3N2 IAV with fever, tachypnoea, sneezing, coughing, dyspnoea and lethargy are occasionally noted in shelters. In one such outbreak, the morbidity rate was 100% and the mortality rate was 40%. Recently, avian H7N2 IAV infection occurred in cats in some shelters in the USA, inducing mostly mild respiratory disease. Furthermore, cats are susceptible to experimental infection with the human H3N2 IAV that caused the pandemic in 1968. Several studies indicated that cats worldwide could be infected by H1N1 IAV during the subsequent human pandemic in 2009. In one shelter, severe cases with fatalities were noted. Finally, the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 IAV can induce a severe, fatal disease in cats, and can spread via cat-to-cat contact. In this review, the Advisory Board on Cat Diseases (ABCD), a scientifically independent board of experts in feline medicine from 11 European countries, summarises current data regarding the aetiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical picture, diagnostics, and control of feline IAV infections, as well as the zoonotic risks.

Accounting for the spread of vaccination behavior to optimize influenza vaccination programs

Vaccination is the most efficient means of preventing influenza infection and its complications. While previous studies have considered the externalities of vaccination that arise from indirect protection against influenza infection, they have often neglected another key factor-the spread of vaccination behavior among social contacts. We modeled influenza vaccination as a socially contagious process. Our model uses a contact network that we developed based on aggregated and anonymized mobility data from the cellphone devices of ~1.8 million users in Israel. We calibrated the model to high-quality longitudinal data of weekly influenza vaccination uptake and influenza diagnoses over seven years. We demonstrate how a simple coupled-transmission model accurately captures the spatiotemporal patterns of both influenza vaccination uptake and influenza incidence. Taking the identified complex underlying dynamics of these two processes into account, our model determined the optimal timing of influenza vaccination programs. Our simulation shows that in regions where high vaccination coverage is anticipated, vaccination uptake would be more rapid. Thus, our model suggests that vaccination programs should be initiated later in the season, to mitigate the effect of waning immunity from the vaccine. Our simulations further show that optimally timed vaccination programs can substantially reduce disease transmission without increasing vaccination uptake.

Asymptomatic transmission and high community burden of seasonal influenza in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2017-18 (PHIRST): a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data on influenza community burden and transmission are important to plan interventions especially in resource-limited settings. However, data are limited, particularly from low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the community burden and transmission of influenza in a rural and an urban setting in South Africa.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study approximately 50 households were selected sequentially from both a rural setting (Agincourt, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa; with a health and sociodemographic surveillance system) and an urban setting (Klerksdorp, Northwest Province, South Africa; using global positioning system data), enrolled, and followed up for 10 months in 2017 and 2018. Different households were enrolled in each year. Households of more than two individuals in which 80% or more of the occupants agreed to participate were included in the study. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice per week from participating household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for influenza using real-time RT-PCR. The primary outcome was the incidence of influenza infection, defined as the number of real-time RT-PCR-positive episodes divided by the person-time under observation. Household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) was defined as the number of subsequent infections within a household following influenza introduction.

FINDINGS

81 430 nasopharyngeal samples were collected from 1116 participants in 225 households (follow-up rate 88%). 917 (1%) tested positive for influenza; 178 (79%) of 225 households had one or more influenza-positive individual. The incidence of influenza infection was 43·6 (95% CI 39·8-47·7) per 100 person-seasons. 69 (17%) of 408 individuals who had one influenza infection had a repeat influenza infection during the same season. The incidence (67·4 per 100 person-seasons) and proportion with repeat infections (22 [23%] of 97 children) were highest in children younger than 5 years and decreased with increasing age (p<0·0001). Overall, 268 (56%) of 478 infections were symptomatic and 66 (14%) of 478 infections were medically attended. The overall HCIR was 10% (109 of 1088 exposed household members infected [95% CI 9-13%). Transmission (HCIR) from index cases was highest in participants aged 1-4 years (16%; 40 of 252 exposed household members) and individuals with two or more symptoms (17%; 68 of 396 exposed household members). Individuals with asymptomatic influenza transmitted infection to 29 (6%) of 509 household contacts. HIV infection, affecting 167 (16%) of 1075 individuals, was not associated with increased incidence or HCIR.

INTERPRETATION

Approximately half of influenza infections were symptomatic, with asymptomatic individuals transmitting influenza to 6% of household contacts. This suggests that strategies, such as quarantine and isolation, might be ineffective to control influenza. Vaccination of children, with the aim of reducing influenza transmission might be effective in African settings given the young population and high influenza burden.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.

Animal Models for Influenza Research: Strengths and Weaknesses

Influenza remains one of the most significant public health threats due to its ability to cause high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although understanding of influenza viruses has greatly increased in recent years, shortcomings remain. Additionally, the continuous mutation of influenza viruses through genetic reassortment and selection of variants that escape host immune responses can render current influenza vaccines ineffective at controlling seasonal epidemics and potential pandemics. Thus, there is a knowledge gap in the understanding of influenza viruses and a corresponding need to develop novel universal vaccines and therapeutic treatments. Investigation of viral pathogenesis, transmission mechanisms, and efficacy of influenza vaccine candidates requires animal models that can recapitulate the disease. Furthermore, the choice of animal model for each research question is crucial in order for researchers to acquire a better knowledge of influenza viruses. Herein, we reviewed the advantages and limitations of each animal model-including mice, ferrets, guinea pigs, swine, felines, canines, and non-human primates-for elucidating influenza viral pathogenesis and transmission and for evaluating therapeutic agents and vaccine efficacy.

Ingestion of Okinawa Island Vegetables Increases IgA Levels and Prevents the Spread of Influenza RNA Viruses

Background: It has been hypothesized that flavonoid ingestion stimulates immunity, promotes health, and prevents human illness. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the association of the levels of immunoglobulin A (IgA) with the prevention of influenza infections and with the polyphenols contained in Okinawan vegetables. Methods: IgA, immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) levels were measured in 44 outpatients who regularly ingested vegetables grown on Okinawa Island (200–300 g/day for ≥ 300 days/year) with no history of influenza infection and in 73 patients who ingested the vegetables irregularly or not at all with a history of influenza infection. Results: The patients who regularly ate Okinawan vegetables had higher IgA, IgG, and IgM levels than those who did not. On the other hand, patients who did not consume Okinawan vegetables and had influenza had lower IgA, IgG, and IgM levels. In addition, the IgA and IgG levels showed significant positive correlations with the sIL-2R levels in both groups. Conclusions: It may be beneficial to eat vegetables abundant in polyphenols every day. Secretory IgA antibodies are an important part of the immune defense against viral diseases. People who ingest Okinawan vegetables have high IgA levels and might be more likely to develop immunity against influenza RNA viruses.

[Proposal for territorial analysis to face the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic based on the Profile of pneumonia and Influenza in Ecuador 2016-2018]

OBJECTIVE

The present study seeks to analyse sociodemographic determinants related to severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and calculate the priorization index in the cantons of Ecuador to identify areas probably most vulnerable to COVID-19 transmission.

DESIGN

This descriptive ecological observational study.

SETTING

224 cantons (geographical area) of Ecuador with secondary data sources of hospital information.

PARTICIPANTS

The unit of measurement was 224 cantons of Ecuador, in which analysed morbidity and lethality rates for SARI using hospital release data (2016-2018).

MAIN MEASUREMENTS

Eight sociodemographic indicators were structuralized, and correlation tests applied for a multiple regression model. The priorization index was created with criteria of efficiency, efficacy, effect size (IRR) and equity. Using the sum of the index for each indicator, the priorization score was calculated and localized in a territorial map.

RESULTS

Morbidity associated factors where: school attendance years, urbanization and population density; for mortality resulted: school attendance and ethnics (indigenous) IRR: 1.09 (IC95%:1.06-1.15) and IRR: 1.024 (IC95%:102-1.03) respectively. With lethality where related cantons, with population older than 60 years, IRR: 1.049 (IC95%: 1.03-1.07); 87 cantons had high priority mostly localized in the mountain region and the Morona Santiago Province.

CONCLUSIONS

Morbidity and mortality of SARI in Ecuador are associated to social and demographic factors. Priorization exercises considering these factors permit the identification of vulnerable territories facing respiratory disease propagation. The social determinants characteristic for each territory should be added to known individual factors to analyse the risk and vulnerability for COVID in the population.

Hemagglutinin Stability and Its Impact on Influenza A Virus Infectivity, Pathogenicity, and Transmissibility in Avians, Mice, Swine, Seals, Ferrets, and Humans

Genetically diverse influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulate in wild aquatic birds. From this reservoir, IAVs sporadically cause outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics in wild and domestic avians, wild land and sea mammals, horses, canines, felines, swine, humans, and other species. One molecular trait shown to modulate IAV host range is the stability of the hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein. The HA protein is the major antigen and during virus entry, this trimeric envelope glycoprotein binds sialic acid-containing receptors before being triggered by endosomal low pH to undergo irreversible structural changes that cause membrane fusion. The HA proteins from different IAV isolates can vary in the pH at which HA protein structural changes are triggered, the protein causes membrane fusion, or outside the cell the virion becomes inactivated. HA activation pH values generally range from pH 4.8 to 6.2. Human-adapted HA proteins tend to have relatively stable HA proteins activated at pH 5.5 or below. Here, studies are reviewed that report HA stability values and investigate the biological impact of variations in HA stability on replication, pathogenicity, and transmissibility in experimental animal models. Overall, a stabilized HA protein appears to be necessary for human pandemic potential and should be considered when assessing human pandemic risk.

Heterogeneity in transmissibility and shedding SARS-CoV-2 via droplets and aerosols

Background

Which virological factors mediate overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging viruses remains a long-standing question in infectious disease epidemiology.

Methods

Here, we use systematic review to develop a comprehensive dataset of respiratory viral loads (rVLs) of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We then comparatively meta-analyze the data and model individual infectiousness by shedding viable virus via respiratory droplets and aerosols.

Results

The analyses indicate heterogeneity in rVL as an intrinsic virological factor facilitating greater overdispersion for SARS-CoV-2 in the COVID-19 pandemic than A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009 influenza pandemic. For COVID-19, case heterogeneity remains broad throughout the infectious period, including for pediatric and asymptomatic infections. Hence, many COVID-19 cases inherently present minimal transmission risk, whereas highly infectious individuals shed tens to thousands of SARS-CoV-2 virions/min via droplets and aerosols while breathing, talking and singing. Coughing increases the contagiousness, especially in close contact, of symptomatic cases relative to asymptomatic ones. Infectiousness tends to be elevated between 1 and 5 days post-symptom onset.

Conclusions

Intrinsic case variation in rVL facilitates overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging respiratory viruses. Our findings present considerations for disease control in the COVID-19 pandemic as well as future outbreaks of novel viruses.

Funding

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant program, NSERC Senior Industrial Research Chair program and the Toronto COVID-19 Action Fund.

The origins of viral infection sleuth

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.

Health inequities in influenza transmission and surveillance

The lower an individual’s socioeconomic position, the higher their risk of poor health in low-, middle-, and high-income settings alike. As health inequities grow, it is imperative that we develop an empirically-driven mechanistic understanding of the determinants of health disparities, and capture disease burden in at-risk populations to prevent exacerbation of disparities. Past work has been limited in data or scope and has thus fallen short of generalizable insights. Here, we integrate empirical data from observational studies and large-scale healthcare data with models to characterize the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of health disparities in an infectious disease case study: influenza. We find that variation in social and healthcare-based determinants exacerbates influenza epidemics, and that low socioeconomic status (SES) individuals disproportionately bear the burden of infection. We also identify geographical hotspots of influenza burden in low SES populations, much of which is overlooked in traditional influenza surveillance, and find that these differences are most predicted by variation in susceptibility and access to sickness absenteeism. Our results highlight that the effect of overlapping factors is synergistic and that reducing this intersectionality can significantly reduce inequities. Additionally, health disparities are expressed geographically, and targeting public health efforts spatially may be an efficient use of resources to abate inequities. The association between health and socioeconomic prosperity has a long history in the epidemiological literature; addressing health inequities in respiratory-transmitted infectious disease burden is an important step towards social justice in public health, and ignoring them promises to pose a serious threat.

Health inequities, or increased morbidity and mortality due to social factors, have been demonstrated for respiratory-transmitted infectious diseases, most recently highlighted by disparities in COVID-19 severe cases and deaths. Many potential causes of these inequities have been proposed, but they have not been compared, and we do not understand their population-scale impacts. Our understanding of these issues is further hindered by epidemiological surveillance, which has been shown to overlook areas of low socioeconomic status. Here, we combine mechanistic and statistical modeling with high volume datasets to disentangle the drivers of respiratory-transmitted disease disparities, and to estimate locations where these health inequities are most severe, using influenza as a case study. We show that low socioeconomic status individuals disproportionately bear the burden of influenza infection, and that all proposed factors are synergistic in their effect. Additionally we identify geographical hotspots of poor disease surveillance among populations of low socioeconomic status, which contribute to an underestimation of health disparities. As the divide in health inequities, driven by income inequality and systemic racism, grows wider across the United States, we highlight the need to understand the mechanisms that may be at the root of disparities, and we advocate for the prioritization of capabilities to monitor outbreaks in at-risk populations so that we may prevent exacerbation of inequities.