Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for adults and children in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 end-of-season results

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Iceland 2014-2022: A test-negative design

INTRODUCTION

Annual influenza epidemics cause heavy disease burden, particularly in children and frail individuals. One of the available preventive measures is vaccination although the vaccine effectiveness is inconsistent. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination (IVE) in Iceland during seven influenza seasons.

METHODS

The study population consisted of all individuals tested for influenza during each season from week 40 to week 20 of the following year and data was collected from 2014 to 2022 using national registries. A test-negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness, calculated as (1 - OR) × 100 %, where OR is the odds ratio of vaccination in test-positive cases relative to test-negative controls, including age group classification. Analysis was done for all studied influenza seasons apart from 2020 to 21 when no influenza cases were detected.

RESULTS

Confirmed influenza cases were 2929 of which 781 were in children and 1192 in patients older than 60 years. Influenza A, H3N2 was most common. The overall vaccine effectiveness (IVE) was 28.1 % (95 % CI: 20.2-35.3). For children, the VE was 61.1 % (95 % CI:40.6-74.5), for all adults 27.0 % (95 % CI: 18.5-34.6), and for people aged 60 years and older, 14.8 % (95 % CI 1.4-26.3). The IVE was highest in the 2015-16 season and lowest in 2016-17.

DISCUSSION

Influenza epidemics in Iceland are similar to other neighbouring countries and infections are common in children. VE varies between seasons, probably at least partly due to vaccine strain mismatch. Despite low VE in several seasons, it can be assumed that thousands of influenza cases were averted. Targeting high vaccine coverage in young children may be an effective way of preventing disease and transmission.

Interim 2022/23 influenza vaccine effectiveness: six European studies, October 2022 to January 2023

BackgroundBetween October 2022 and January 2023, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B/Victoria viruses circulated in Europe with different influenza (sub)types dominating in different areas.AimTo provide interim 2022/23 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from six European studies, covering 16 countries in primary care, emergency care and hospital inpatient settings.MethodsAll studies used the test-negative design, but with differences in other study characteristics, such as data sources, patient selection, case definitions and included age groups. Overall and influenza (sub)type-specific VE was estimated for each study using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders.ResultsThere were 20,477 influenza cases recruited across the six studies, of which 16,589 (81%) were influenza A. Among all ages and settings, VE against influenza A ranged from 27 to 44%. Against A(H1N1)pdm09 (all ages and settings), VE point estimates ranged from 28% to 46%, higher among children (< 18 years) at 49-77%. Against A(H3N2), overall VE ranged from 2% to 44%, also higher among children (62-70%). Against influenza B/Victoria, overall and age-specific VE were ≥ 50% (87-95% among children < 18 years).ConclusionsInterim results from six European studies during the 2022/23 influenza season indicate a ≥ 27% and ≥ 50% reduction in disease occurrence among all-age influenza vaccine recipients for influenza A and B, respectively, with higher reductions among children. Genetic virus characterisation results and end-of-season VE estimates will contribute to greater understanding of differences in influenza (sub)type-specific results across studies.

Revisiting live attenuated influenza vaccine efficacy among children in developing countries

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause significant pediatric mortality and morbidity worldwide. Live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) can be administered intranasally, induce a broad and robust immune response, demonstrate higher yields during manufacturing as compared to inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs), and thereby represent an attractive possibility for young children in developing countries. We summarize recent pediatric studies evaluating LAIV efficacy in developing countries where a large proportion of the influenza-virus-associated respiratory disease burden occurs. Recently, two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing Russian-backbone trivalent LAIV in children reported contradictory results; vaccine efficacy varied between Bangladesh (41 %) and Senegal (0.0 %) against all influenza viral strains. Prior to 2013, Ann Arbor-based LAIV demonstrated superior efficacy as compared to IIV. However, due to low effectiveness of the Ann Arbor-based LAIV against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-like viruses, the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended against the use of LAIV during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 influenza seasons. Reduced replicative fitness of the A(H1N1)pdm09 LAIV strains is thought to have led to the low effectiveness of the Ann-Arbor-based LAIV. Once the A(H1N1)pdm09 component was updated, the ACIP reintroduced the Ann-Arbor-based LAIV as a vaccine choice for the 2018-19 influenza season. In 2021, results from a 2-year RCT evaluating the Russian-backbone trivalent LAIV in rural north India reported that LAIV demonstrated significantly lower efficacy compared to IIV, but in Year 2, the vaccine efficacy for LAIV and IIV was comparable. A profounder understanding of the mechanisms underlying varied efficacy of LAIV in developing countries is warranted. Assessing replicative fitness, in addition to antigenicity, when selecting annual A(H1N1)pdm09 components in the Russian-backbone trivalent LAIVs is essential and may ultimately, enable widespread utility in resource-poor settings.

The impact of repeated vaccination on relative influenza vaccine effectiveness among vaccinated adults in the United Kingdom

Annual seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals at high risk of developing post-infection complications in many locations. However, reduced vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness have been observed among repeat vaccinees in some influenza seasons. We investigated the impact of repeated influenza vaccination on relative vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals who were recommended for influenza vaccination in the United Kingdom with a retrospective cohort study using primary healthcare data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a primary care database in the United Kingdom. Relative VE was estimated against general practitioner-diagnosed influenza-like illnesses (GP-ILI) and medically attended acute respiratory illnesses (MAARI) among participants who have been repeatedly vaccinated compared with first-time vaccinees using proportional hazards models. Relative VE against MAARI may be reduced for individuals above 65 years old who were vaccinated in the current and previous influenza seasons for some influenza seasons. However, these findings were not conclusive as we could not exclude the possibility of residual confounding in our dataset. The use of routinely collected data from electronic health records to examine the effects of repeated vaccination needs to be complemented with sufficient efforts to include negative control outcomes to rule out residual confounding.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.

Live Attenuated Cold-Adapted Influenza Vaccines

Live attenuated, cold-adapted influenza vaccines exhibit several desirable characteristics, including the induction of systemic, mucosal, and cell-mediated immunity resulting in breadth of protection, ease of administration, and yield. Seasonal live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) were developed in the United States and Russia and have been used in several countries. In the last decade, following the incorporation of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain, the performance of both LAIVs has been variable and the U.S.-backbone LAIV was less effective than the corresponding inactivated influenza vaccines. The cause appears to be reduced replicative fitness of some H1N1pdm09 viruses, indicating a need for careful selection of strains included in multivalent LAIV formulations. Assays are now being implemented to select optimal strains. An improved understanding of the determinants of replicative fitness of vaccine strains and of vaccine effectiveness of LAIVs is needed for public health systems to take full advantage of these valuable vaccines.

No effect modification of influenza virus vaccine effectiveness by age or chronic condition was observed in the 2010/11 to 2017/18 seasons

PURPOSE

Most European influenza vaccine strategies target individuals at higher risk of complications, which include, among others, individuals aged ≥65 years and with chronic conditions. These individuals not only have a high-risk of post-infection complications but also could have lower capacity of acquiring adequate vaccine-induced protection. As such, chronic conditions and age could modify the effect of vaccines. This study aimed at assessing the potential effect modification of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) by age and chronic conditions.

METHODS

We used eight-season data from the Portuguese vaccine effectiveness study. Every season, physicians at primary care units recruited patients with influenza-like illness. Clinical data and swabs were collected for Reverse Transverse Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) detection of influenza. Trivalent inactivated IVE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) of being vaccinated in cases (RT-PCR positive for influenza) versus negative controls. ORs were obtained using a multivariable conditional logistic regression model, paired by week of onset within each season. Confounders were assessed by designing a specific causal diagram. Age (< 65 or ≥65 years) and chronic conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal disease, chronic hepatic disease, obesity, chronic respiratory disease, and congenital or acquired immunodeficiency) were studied as effect modifiers by including an interaction term in the regression models. Significance was established at 5%.

RESULTS

Point estimates indicate a higher IVE in the chronic condition strata compared to that in the no chronic condition strata. Regarding age, different results were obtained considering the virus type and (sub)type. When comparing the ≥65 years with the <65 years of age strata, we observed a higher IVE against A(H1N1)pdm09, an equal IVE against A(H3N2) and a lower IVE against B virus. However, all interaction terms were statistically insignificant, and this may be due to a small sample size.

CONCLUSION

The potential effect modification of age or chronic condition was not observed within our study.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in People With Asthma: A National Test-Negative Design Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection is a trigger of asthma attacks. Influenza vaccination can potentially reduce the incidence of influenza in people with asthma, but uptake remains persistently low, partially reflecting concerns about vaccine effectiveness (VE).

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative designed case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in people with asthma in Scotland over 6 seasons (2010/2011 to 2015/2016). We used individual patient-level data from 223 practices, which yielded 1 830 772 patient-years of data that were linked with virological (n = 5910 swabs) data.

RESULTS

Vaccination was associated with an overall 55.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.8-62.7) risk reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in people with asthma over 6 seasons. There were substantial variations in VE between seasons, influenza strains, and age groups. The highest VE (76.1%; 95% CI, 55.6-87.1) was found in the 2010/2011 season, when the A(H1N1) strain dominated and there was a good antigenic vaccine match. High protection was observed against the A(H1N1) (eg, 2010/2011; 70.7%; 95% CI, 32.5-87.3) and B strains (eg, 2010/2011; 83.2%; 95% CI, 44.3-94.9), but there was lower protection for the A(H3N2) strain (eg, 2014/2015; 26.4%; 95% CI, -12.0 to 51.6). The highest VE against all viral strains was observed in adults aged 18-54 years (57.0%; 95% CI, 42.3-68.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination gave meaningful protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza in people with asthma across all seasons. Strategies to boost influenza vaccine uptake have the potential to substantially reduce influenza-triggered asthma attacks.

Decline in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness With Vaccination Program Maturation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that repeated influenza vaccination may reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE). Using influenza vaccination program maturation (PM; number of years since program inception) as a proxy for population-level repeated vaccination, we assessed the impact on pooled adjusted end-season VE estimates from outpatient test-negative design studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched and selected full-text publications from January 2011 to February 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42017064595). We obtained influenza vaccination program inception year for each country and calculated PM as the difference between the year of deployment and year of program inception. We categorized PM into halves (cut at the median), tertiles, and quartiles and calculated pooled VE using an inverse-variance random-effects model. The primary outcome was pooled VE against all influenza.

RESULTS

We included 72 articles from 11 931 citations. Across the 3 categorizations of PM, a lower pooled VE against all influenza for all patients was observed with PM. Substantially higher reductions were observed in older adults (≥65 years). We observed similar results for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and influenza B.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests that influenza VE declines with vaccination PM. This study forms the basis for further discussions and examinations of the potential impact of vaccination PM on seasonal VE.

Variable seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from test-negative design studies after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND

We examined the influence of some factors on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched for full-text publications of VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza from TND studies in outpatient settings after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data from the included studies. We calculated pooled adjusted VE across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, using an inverse variance, random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 76 full-text articles from 11,931 citations. VE estimates against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were homogenous and point pooled VE higher in the Southern hemisphere compared with the Northern hemisphere. The difference in pooled VE between the Southern and Northern hemispheres was statistically significant for A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza. A consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across both hemispheres and continents, with the highest point pooled VE being against A(H1N1)pdm09, followed by influenza B, and lowest against A(H3N2). A nearly consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across age groups in the Northern hemisphere, with pooled VE mostly decreasing with age. Point pooled VE against A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were statistically significantly higher when vaccine was antigenically similar to circulating virus strains compared with when antigenically dissimilar. Similar pattern was observed in the Northern hemisphere, but there was a lack of data from the Southern hemisphere.

CONCLUSION

Consistent patterns appear to exist in seasonal influenza VE across regions, age groups, and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, with best vaccine performance against A(H1N1)pdm09 and worst against A(H3N2). The evidence highlights the need to consider geographical location, age, and vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains when designing and evaluating influenza VE studies.

Viral Shedding in Recipients of Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 Influenza Seasons in the United Kingdom

Background

The (H1N1)pdm09 live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) strain was changed for the 2017–2018 influenza season to improve viral fitness, following poor protection against (H1N1)pdm09 viruses in 2015–2016. We conducted LAIV virus shedding studies to assess the effect of this change.

Methods

Children aged 2–18 years were recruited to receive LAIV in the 2016–2017 (n = 641) and 2017–2018 (n = 362) influenza seasons. Viruses from nasal swabs taken 1, 3, and 6 days postvaccination were quantified by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction and area under the curve titers were determined. Presence and quantity of shedding were compared between strains and seasons with adjustment for age and prior LAIV (n = 436), inactivated seasonal vaccine (n = 100), or (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine (n = 166) receipt.

Results

(H1N1)pdm09 detection (positivity) in 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 (11.2% and 3.9%, respectively) was lower than that of H3N2 (19.7% and 18.7%, respectively) and B/Victoria (28.9% and 33.9%, respectively). (H1N1)pdm09 positivity was higher in 2016–2017 than 2017–2018 (P = .005), but within shedding-positive participants, the (H1N1)pdm09 titer increased in 2017–2018 (P = .02). H3N2 and influenza B titers were similar between seasons. Positivity declined with age, and prior vaccination reduced the likelihood of shedding influenza B but not (H1N1)pdm09.

Conclusions

The (H1N1)pdm09 titer increased in 2017–2018, indicating more efficient virus replication in shedding-positive children than the 2016–2017 strain, although overall positivity was reduced. Age and vaccination history require consideration when correlating virus shedding and protection.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT02143882, NCT02866942, and NCT03104790.

Vaccine effectiveness of live attenuated and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in 2010/11 to 2015/16: the SIVE II record linkage study

BACKGROUND

There is good evidence of vaccine effectiveness in healthy individuals but less robust evidence for vaccine effectiveness in the populations targeted for influenza vaccination. The live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has recently been recommended for children in the UK. The trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is recommended for all people aged ≥ 65 years and for those aged < 65 years who are at an increased risk of complications from influenza infection (e.g. people with asthma).

OBJECTIVE

To examine the vaccine effectiveness of LAIV and TIV.

DESIGN

Cohort study and test-negative designs to estimate vaccine effectiveness. A self-case series study to ascertain adverse events associated with vaccination.

SETTING

A national linkage of patient-level general practice (GP) data from 230 Scottish GPs to the Scottish Immunisation & Recall Service, Health Protection Scotland virology database, admissions to Scottish hospitals and the Scottish death register.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1,250,000 people.

INTERVENTIONS

LAIV for 2- to 11-year-olds and TIV for older people (aged ≥ 65 years) and those aged < 65 years who are at risk of diseases, from 2010/11 to 2015/16.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures include vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), influenza-related morbidity and mortality, and adverse events associated with vaccination.

RESULTS

Two-fifths (40%) of preschool-aged children and three-fifths (60%) of primary school-aged children registered in study practices were vaccinated. Uptake varied among groups [e.g. most affluent vs. most deprived in 2- to 4-year-olds, odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.70 to 1.82]. LAIV-adjusted vaccine effectiveness among children (aged 2-11 years) for preventing RT-PCR laboratory-confirmed influenza was 21% (95% CI -19% to 47%) in 2014/15 and 58% (95% CI 39% to 71%) in 2015/16. No significant adverse events were associated with LAIV. Among at-risk 18- to 64-year-olds, significant trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness was found for four of the six seasons, with the highest vaccine effectiveness in 2010/11 (53%, 95% CI 21% to 72%). The seasons with non-significant vaccine effectiveness had low levels of circulating influenza virus (2011/12, 5%; 2013/14, 9%). Among those people aged ≥ 65 years, TIV effectiveness was positive in all six seasons, but in only one of the six seasons (2013/14) was significance achieved (57%, 95% CI 20% to 76%).

CONCLUSIONS

The study found that LAIV was safe and effective in decreasing RT-PCR-confirmed influenza in children. TIV was safe and significantly effective in most seasons for 18- to 64-year-olds, with positive vaccine effectiveness in most seasons for those people aged ≥ 65 years (although this was significant in only one season).

FUTURE WORK

The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has recommended the use of adjuvanted injectable vaccine for those people aged ≥ 65 years from season 2018/19 onwards. A future study will be required to evaluate this vaccine.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88072400.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 67. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

COVID-19 Surveillance in a Primary Care Sentinel Network: In-Pandemic Development of an Application Ontology

Background

Creating an ontology for COVID-19 surveillance should help ensure transparency and consistency. Ontologies formalize conceptualizations at either the domain or application level. Application ontologies cross domains and are specified through testable use cases. Our use case was an extension of the role of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) to monitor the current pandemic and become an in-pandemic research platform.

Objective

This study aimed to develop an application ontology for COVID-19 that can be deployed across the various use-case domains of the RCGP RSC research and surveillance activities.

Methods

We described our domain-specific use case. The actor was the RCGP RSC sentinel network, the system was the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcomes were the spread and effect of mitigation measures. We used our established 3-step method to develop the ontology, separating ontological concept development from code mapping and data extract validation. We developed a coding system–independent COVID-19 case identification algorithm. As there were no gold-standard pandemic surveillance ontologies, we conducted a rapid Delphi consensus exercise through the International Medical Informatics Association Primary Health Care Informatics working group and extended networks.

Results

Our use-case domains included primary care, public health, virology, clinical research, and clinical informatics. Our ontology supported (1) case identification, microbiological sampling, and health outcomes at an individual practice and at the national level; (2) feedback through a dashboard; (3) a national observatory; (4) regular updates for Public Health England; and (5) transformation of a sentinel network into a trial platform. We have identified a total of 19,115 people with a definite COVID-19 status, 5226 probable cases, and 74,293 people with possible COVID-19, within the RCGP RSC network (N=5,370,225).

Conclusions

The underpinning structure of our ontological approach has coped with multiple clinical coding challenges. At a time when there is uncertainty about international comparisons, clarity about the basis on which case definitions and outcomes are made from routine data is essential.

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent.

Applied to England, this study aims to identify the optimal target age groups when extending a seasonal influenza vaccination programme of at-risk individuals to those individuals at low risk of developing complications following infection. To perform this analysis, we utilise an age- and strain-structured transmission model that includes immunity propagation mechanisms which link prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Making use of surveillance data from the past decade in conjunction with our dynamic model, we simulate transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in England from 2012 to 2018. We infer that modified susceptibility due to natural infection in the previous influenza season is the only immunity propagation mechanism to deliver a non-negligible impact on the transmission dynamics. Further, we discerned case ascertainment to be higher for young infants compared to adults under 65 years old, and uncovered a decrease in case ascertainment as age increased from 65 to 85 years of age.

Our health economic appraisal sweeps vaccination age space to determine threshold vaccine dose prices achieving cost-effectiveness under differing paired strategies. In particular, we model offering vaccination to all those low-risk individuals younger than a given age (but no younger than two years old) and all low-risk individuals older than a given age, while maintaining vaccination of at-risk individuals of any age. All posited strategies were deemed cost-effective. In general, the addition of low-risk vaccination programmes whose coverage encompassed children and young adults (aged 20 and below) were highly cost-effective. The inclusion of elder age-groups to the low-risk programme typically lessened the cost-effectiveness. Notably, elderly-centric programmes vaccinating from 65-75 years and above had the least permitted expense per vaccine.

Vaccination is an established method to provide protection against seasonal influenza and its complications. Yet, a need to administer an updated vaccine on an annual basis presents significant operational challenges and sizeable costs. Consequently, policy makers typically have to decide how to deploy a finite amount of resource in a cost-effective manner. A combination of mathematical and health economic modelling can be used to address such a question. Here, we developed an age- and strain-structured mathematical model for seasonal influenza transmission dynamics that incorporates mechanisms for immunity propagation, which we used to reconstruct transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in England from 2012 to 2018.

We then performed a health economic evaluation assessing the cost-effectiveness of extending a seasonal influenza vaccination programme of at-risk individuals to also include, for targeted age groups, those individuals at low risk of developing complications following infection. The findings suggest the inclusion of low-risk vaccination programmes whose coverage encompassed children and young adults (aged 20 and below) to be highly cost-effective. In contrast, the inclusion of elder age-groups to the low-risk programme typically lessened the cost-effectiveness.

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2017/18

Background

In the United Kingdom (UK), in recent influenza seasons, children are offered a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4), and eligible adults mainly trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV).

Aim

To estimate the UK end-of-season 2017/18 adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) and the seroprevalence in England of antibodies against influenza viruses cultured in eggs or tissue.

Methods

This observational study employed the test-negative case–control approach to estimate aVE in primary care. The population-based seroprevalence survey used residual age-stratified samples.

Results

Influenza viruses A(H3N2) (particularly subgroup 3C.2a2) and B (mainly B/Yamagata/16/88-lineage, similar to the quadrivalent vaccine B-virus component but mismatched to TIV) dominated. All-age aVE was 15% (95% confidence interval (CI): −6.3 to 32) against all influenza; −16.4% (95% CI: −59.3 to 14.9) against A(H3N2); 24.7% (95% CI: 1.1 to 42.7) against B and 66.3% (95% CI: 33.4 to 82.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For 2–17 year olds, LAIV4 aVE was 26.9% (95% CI: −32.6 to 59.7) against all influenza; −75.5% (95% CI: −289.6 to 21) against A(H3N2); 60.8% (95% CI: 8.2 to 83.3) against B and 90.3% (95% CI: 16.4 to 98.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For ≥ 18 year olds, TIV aVE against influenza B was 1.9% (95% CI: −63.6 to 41.2). The 2017 seroprevalence of antibody recognising tissue-grown A(H3N2) virus was significantly lower than that recognising egg-grown virus in all groups except 15–24 year olds.

Conclusions

Overall aVE was low driven by no effectiveness against A(H3N2) possibly related to vaccine virus egg-adaption and a new A(H3N2) subgroup emergence. The TIV was not effective against influenza B. LAIV4 against influenza B and A(H1N1)pdm09 was effective.

Interim 2018/19 influenza vaccine effectiveness: six European studies, October 2018 to January 2019

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses both circulated in Europe in October 2018–January 2019. Interim results from six studies indicate that 2018/19 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates among all ages in primary care was 32–43% against influenza A; higher against A(H1N1)pdm09 and lower against A(H3N2). Among hospitalised older adults, VE estimates were 34–38% against influenza A and slightly lower against A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza vaccination is of continued benefit during the ongoing 2018/19 influenza season.

Variations in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness due to Study Characteristics: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Test-Negative Design Studies

BACKGROUND

Study characteristics influence vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimation. We examined the influence of some of these on seasonal influenza VE estimates from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched bibliographic databases and websites for full-text publications of TND studies on VE against laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in outpatients after the 2009 pandemic influenza. We followed the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions guidelines. We examined influence of source of vaccination information, respiratory specimen swab time, and covariate adjustment on VE. We calculated pooled adjusted VE against H1N1 and H3N2 influenza subtypes, influenza B, and all influenza using an inverse-variance random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 70 full-text articles. Pooled VE against H1N1 and H3N2 influenza subtypes, influenza B, and all influenza was higher for studies that used self-reported vaccination than for those that used medical records. Pooled VE was higher with respiratory specimen collection within ≤7 days vs ≤4 days of symptom onset, but the opposite was observed for H1N1. Pooled VE was higher for studies that adjusted for age but not for medical conditions compared with those that adjusted for both. There was, however, a lack of statistical significance in almost all differences in pooled VE between compared groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence is not strong enough to conclude that influenza VE from TND studies varies by source of vaccination information, respiratory specimen swab time, or adjustment for age/medical conditions. The evidence is, however, indicative that these factors ought to be considered while designing or evaluating TND studies of influenza VE.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation due to laboratory-confirmed influenza in children in England in the 2015-2016 influenza season - a test-negative case-control study

England has recently started a new paediatric influenza vaccine programme using a live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). There is uncertainty over how well the vaccine protects against more severe end-points. A test-negative case–control study was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) in vaccine-eligible children aged 2–16 years of age in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalisation in England in the 2015–2016 season using a national sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Logistic regression was used to estimate the VE with adjustment for sex, risk-group, age group, region, ethnicity, deprivation and month of sample collection. A total of 977 individuals were included in the study (348 cases and 629 controls). The overall adjusted VE for all study ages and vaccine types was 33.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3–54.6) after adjusting for age group, sex, index of multiple deprivation, ethnicity, region, sample month and risk group. Risk group was shown to be an important confounder. The adjusted VE for all influenza types for the live-attenuated vaccine was 41.9% (95% CI 7.3–63.6) and 28.8% (95% CI −31.1 to 61.3) for the inactivated vaccine. The study provides evidence of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation due to laboratory-confirmed influenza in children in 2015–2016 and continues to support the rollout of the LAIV childhood programme.

Interim 2019/20 influenza vaccine effectiveness: six European studies, September 2019 to January 2020

BackgroundInfluenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B viruses were co-circulating in Europe between September 2019 and January 2020.AimTo provide interim 2019/20 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from six European studies, covering 10 countries and both primary care and hospital settings.MethodsAll studies used the test-negative design, although there were some differences in other study characteristics, e.g. patient selection, data sources, case definitions and included age groups. Overall and influenza (sub)type-specific VE was estimated for each study using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders.ResultsThere were 31,537 patients recruited across the six studies, of which 5,300 (17%) were cases with 5,310 infections. Most of these (4,466; 84%) were influenza A. The VE point estimates for all ages were 29% to 61% against any influenza in the primary care setting and 35% to 60% in hospitalised older adults (aged 65 years and over). The VE point estimates against A(H1N1)pdm09 (all ages, both settings) was 48% to 75%, and against A(H3N2) ranged from -58% to 57% (primary care) and -16% to 60% (hospital). Against influenza B, VE for all ages was 62% to 83% (primary care only).ConclusionsInfluenza vaccination is of continued benefit during the ongoing 2019/20 influenza season. Robust end-of-season VE estimates and genetic virus characterisation results may help understand the variability in influenza (sub)type-specific results across studies.

Use of traditional serological methods and oral fluids to assess immunogenicity in children aged 2-16 years after successive annual vaccinations with LAIV

BACKGROUND

The UK introduced quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (qLAIV) for children in 2013/2014. The impact of annual vaccination on effectiveness and immunogenicity is being assessed.

METHOD

A phase III/IV open-label study of the immunogenicity of annual vaccination with qLAIV (Fluenz™) was conducted over three consecutive years (2014/15-2016/17) in 254, 249 and 162 children respectively. Serum responses to vaccine components were measured by Haemagglutination Inhibition (HAI) and anti-A(H1N1)pdm09 Neuraminidase (NAI) assays, stratified according to previous receipt of AS03B-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic vaccine in 2009/10. Antibody levels to the A(H1N1)pdm09 and H3N2 vaccine components in oral fluids (OF) were explored using an ELISA.

FINDINGS

More paired pre- and post-vaccination oral fluids (96%) than paired sera (87%) were obtained. Geometric mean titre rises using HAI assays were limited, with maximum rises seen in year one for both influenza B strains when 39% and 43% of subjects seroconverted (95% confidence interval 33-46% and 36-50%, respectively) and year two for influenza H3N2, when 40% (33-46%) individuals seroconverted. Prior pandemic vaccine receipt resulted in higher pre- and post-vaccination A(H1N1)pdm09 HAI titres and lower pre-and post-vaccination NAI (N1 neuraminidase) titres in all three years. OF results were congruent with HAI results; assay specificity compared to HAI was 88.1 and 71.6 percent, and sensitivity was 86.4 and 74.8 percent respectively for A(H1N1)pdm09 and H3N2.

CONCLUSION

In all three study years, vaccination with qLAIV resulted in poor antibody responses. However, OFs are an alternative specimen type that allows self sampling, can easily be obtained from children, and their analysis leads to similar conclusions as classic serology by HAI. Their suitability for seroprevalence studies should be investigated. We demonstrated a sustained effect from prior receipt of the AS03B-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine, even after repeat vaccination with qLAIV indicating that early exposure to influenza antigens has a significant long lasting effect.

Successes and Failures of the Live-attenuated Influenza Vaccine: Can We Do Better?

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) can vary widely, ranging from 0% to 50%. The reasons for these discrepancies remain largely unclear.

METHODS

We use mathematical models to explore how the efficacy of LAIV is affected by the degree of mismatch with the currently circulating influenza strain and interference with pre-existing immunity. The models incorporate 3 key antigenic distances: the distances between the vaccine strain, pre-existing immunity, and the challenge strain.

RESULTS

Our models show that an LAIV that is matched with the currently circulating strain is likely to have only modest efficacy. Our results suggest that the efficacy of the vaccine would be increased (optimized) if, rather than being matched to the circulating strain, it is antigenically slightly further from pre-existing immunity than the circulating strain. The models also suggest 2 regimes in which LAIV that is matched to circulating strains may be protective: in children before they have built immunity to circulating strains and in response to novel strains (such as antigenic shifts) which are at substantial antigenic distance from previously circulating strains. We provide an explanation for the variation in vaccine effectiveness between studies and countries of vaccine effectiveness observed during the 2014-2015 influenza season.

CONCLUSIONS

LAIV is offered to children across the world; however, its effectiveness significantly varies between studies. Here, we propose a mechanistic explanation to understand these differences. We further propose a way to select the LAIV strain that would have a higher chance of being protective.

Differences in nasal immunoglobulin A responses to influenza vaccine strains after live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) immunization in children

Different vaccine strains included in the live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) have variable efficacy. The reasons for this are not clear and may include differences in immunogenicity. We report a Phase IV open-label study on the immunogenicity of a single dose of quadrivalent LAIV (Fluenz™ Tetra) in children during the 2015/16 season, to investigate the antibody responses to different strains. Eligible children were enrolled to receive LAIV; nasal samples were collected before and approximately 4 weeks after immunization. There was a significant increase in nasal immunoglobulin (Ig)A to the H3N2, B/Victoria lineage (B/Brisbane) and B/Yamagata lineage (B/Phuket) components, but not to the H1N1 component. The fold change in nasal IgA response was inversely proportional to the baseline nasal IgA titre for H1N1, H3N2 and B/Brisbane. We investigated possible associations that may explain baseline nasal IgA, including age and prior vaccination status, but found different patterns for different antigens, suggesting that the response is multi-factorial. Overall, we observed differences in immune responses to different viral strains included in the vaccine; the reasons for this require further investigation.

Insights into current clinical research on the immunogenicity of live attenuated influenza vaccines

Introduction: Live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) have been in use for more than three decades and are now licensed in many countries. There is evidence that LAIVs can have greater efficacy than inactivated influenza vaccines, especially against mismatched influenza, however, in recent years, a number of trials have found a lack of LAIV efficacy, mainly in relation to the H1N1 virus.Areas covered: In this review, we summarize the results of clinical research published in the past 5 years on the immunogenicity of LAIVs, with special attention to the mechanisms of establishing protective immunity and some factors that may influence immunogenicity and efficacy.Expert opinion: A number of recent clinical studies confirmed that the immune responses to LAIVs are multifaceted, involving different immune mechanisms. These trials suggest that the intrinsic replicative properties of each LAIV component should be taken into account, and the precise effects of adding a fourth vaccine strain to trivalent LAIV formulations are still to be identified. In addition, new data are emerging regarding the impact of pre-vaccination conditions, such as preexisting immunity or concurrent asymptomatic viral and bacterial respiratory infections, on LAIV immunogenicity, suggesting the importance of monitoring them during clinical trials or vaccination campaigns.

Impaired Vaccine-Induced Antibody Response Against Clade 6B H1N1 Viruses in Individuals Before Viral Emergence

BACKGROUND

Clade 6B H1N1 pdm09 influenza viruses cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Human antibody profiles elicited upon vaccination against the clade 6B virus are largely unclear before viral emergence.

METHODS

Healthy volunteers, including children aged 3-8 years, adolescents aged 9-17 years, and adults, were enrolled before the clade 6B H1N1 outbreak and received the 2013-2014 inactivated influenza vaccine. We determined antibody responses before and after vaccination. Vaccine-induced plasmablast-derived antibodies were tested against H1N1 pdm09 reference and clade 6B viruses.

RESULTS

The majority of the subjects generated robust hemagglutination inhibition and neutralizing antibody responses upon vaccination across the different age groups. Nevertheless, a subset of young adults preferentially produced antibodies that failed to neutralize clade 6B viruses that emerged and circulated in 2014-2016. The hemagglutinin K163Q change at the Sa antigenic site, one of the substitutions that define clade 6B viruses, was responsible for resistance to neutralization by both postvaccination sera and vaccine-induced plasmablast-derived antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine-induced antibody immunity is compromised by the antigenic change of H1N1 pdm09 virus in a subset of adults, and this may warrant the incorporation of human serology in the antigenic characterization of virus and vaccine strain selection.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccine against influenza A in Europe in seasons of different A(H1N1)pdm09 and the same A(H3N2) vaccine components (2016-17 and 2017-18)

INTRODUCTION

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated in Europe in 2016-17. In 2017-18 A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated. The A(H3N2) vaccine component was the same in both seasons; while the A(H1N1)pdm09 component changed in 2017-18. In both seasons, vaccine seed A(H3N2) viruses developed adaptations/alterations during propagation in eggs, impacting antigenicity.

METHODS

We used the test-negative design in a multicentre primary care case-control study in 12 European countries to measure 2016-17 and 2017-18 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) overall and by age group.

RESULTS

During the 2017-18 season, the overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 59% (95% CI: 47-69). Among those aged 0-14, 15-64 and ≥65 years, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 64% (95% CI: 37-79), 50% (95% CI: 28-66) and 66% (95% CI: 42-80), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 28% (95% CI: 17-38) in 2016-17 and 13% (95% CI: -15 to 34) in 2017-18. Among 0-14-year-olds VE against A(H3N2) was 28% (95%CI: -10 to 53) and 29% (95% CI: -87 to 73), among 15-64-year-olds 34% (95% CI: 18-46) and 33% (95% CI: -3 to 56) and among those aged ≥65 years 15% (95% CI: -10 to 34) and -9% (95% CI: -74 to 32) in 2016-17 and 2017-18, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests the new A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component conferred good protection against circulating strains, while VE against A(H3N2) was <35% in 2016-17 and 2017-18. The egg propagation derived antigenic mismatch of the vaccine seed virus with circulating strains may have contributed to this low effectiveness. A(H3N2) seed viruses for vaccines in subsequent seasons may be subject to the same adaptations; in years with lower than expected VE, recommendations of preventive measures other than vaccination should be given in a timely manner.

Factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel: a cross-sectional evaluation

Background

Vaccinating children against influenza has shown both direct and indirect beneficial effects. However, despite being offered free of charge, childhood influenza vaccine coverage in Israel has been low. Our objective was to evaluate the factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel.

Methods

A cross-sectional language-specific telephone survey was conducted among adults 18 years or older, to examine childhood influenza vaccination practices and their associations with socio-demographic and relevant health variables. We further explored the reasons for these practices among parents. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with childhood influenza vaccine acceptance.

Results

Of a total of 6518 individuals contacted by mobile phone, 1165 eligible parents, ≥18 years old with children 1–18 years of age, were interviewed, and 1040 of them completed the survey successfully. Overall, factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination were younger child’s age, influenza vaccination of other family members and belonging to the Arab population group. No association was found between childhood influenza vaccination and routine childhood vaccine uptake. Several of the parents’ reasons for vaccine acceptance - preventing influenza or its transmission, awareness regarding the need for influenza vaccination and receipt of invitation to get vaccinated - differed significantly between Jewish and Arab parents. Several reasons reported by parents for not vaccinating children against influenza, indicated a likelihood to accept influenza vaccine outreach efforts. Such reasons were reported by 27.5% of Jewish parents and 37.5% of Arab parents.

Conclusions

We found that certain demographic factors were associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel. Several reasons described by the parent for not vaccinating their children indicate that outreach efforts are likely to increase childhood influenza vaccination. Addressing population group-specific needs is recommended to optimize the success of influenza vaccine outreach efforts.

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in primary care in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2018/19

2018/19 was the first season of introduction of a newly licensed adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aTIV) for adults aged 65 years and over and the sixth season in the roll-out of a childhood influenza vaccination programme with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The season saw mainly A(H1N1)pdm09 and latterly A(H3N2) circulation. End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates against laboratory confirmed influenza infection in primary care were calculated using the test negative case control method adjusting for key confounders. End-of-season aVE was 44.3% (95% CI: 26.8, 57.7) against all laboratory-confirmed influenza; 45.7% (95% CI: 26.0, 60.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 35.1% (95% CI: -3.7,59.3) against A(H3N2). Overall aVE was 49.9% (95%CI: -13.7, 77.9) for all those ≥ 65 years of age and 62.0% (95% CI: 3.4, 85.0) for those who received aTIV. Overall aVE for 2-17 year olds receiving LAIV was 48.6% (95% CI: -4.4, 74.7). The paper provides evidence of overall significant influenza VE in 2018/19, most notably against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, however, as seen in 2017/18, there was reduced, non-significant VE against A(H3N2). aTIV provided significant protection for those 65 years of age and over.

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental component of analysis, informing the efficient use of limited resources. However, these models generally treat each season and each strain circulating within that season in isolation. Here, we amalgamate multiple data sources to calibrate a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered type transmission model for seasonal influenza, incorporating the four main strains and mechanisms linking prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Data pertaining to nine influenza seasons, starting with the 2009/10 season, informed our estimates for epidemiological processes, virological sample positivity, vaccine uptake and efficacy attributes, and general practitioner influenza-like-illness consultations as reported by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We performed parameter inference via approximate Bayesian computation to assess strain transmissibility, dependence of present season influenza immunity on prior protection, and variability in the influenza case ascertainment across seasons. This produced reasonable agreement between model and data on the annual strain composition. Parameter fits indicated that the propagation of immunity from one season to the next is weaker if vaccine derived, compared to natural immunity from infection. Projecting the dynamics forward in time suggests that while historic immunity plays an important role in determining annual strain composition, the variability in vaccine efficacy hampers our ability to make long-term predictions.

Uptake and impact of vaccinating primary school-age children against influenza: experiences of a live attenuated influenza vaccine programme, England, 2015/16

The 2015/16 influenza season was the third season of the introduction of an intra-nasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for children in England. All children aged 2‒6 years were offered LAIV, and in addition, a series of geographically discrete areas piloted vaccinating school-age children 7‒11 years old. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant circulating strain during 2015/16 followed by influenza B. We measured influenza vaccine uptake and the overall and indirect effect of vaccinating children of primary school -age, by comparing cumulative disease incidence in targeted and non-targeted age groups in vaccine pilot and non-pilot areas in England. Uptake of 57.9% (range: 43.6-72.0) was achieved in the five pilot areas for children aged 5‒11 years. In pilot areas, cumulative emergency department respiratory attendances, influenza-confirmed hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions were consistently lower, albeit mostly non-significantly, in targeted and non-targeted age groups compared with non-pilot areas. Effect sizes were less for adults and more severe endpoints. Vaccination of healthy primary school-age children with LAIV at moderately high levels continues to be associated with population-level reductions in influenza-related respiratory illness. Further work to evaluate the population-level impact of the programme is required.

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Influenza B virus infections in Western Saxony, Germany in three consecutive seasons between 2015 and 2018: Analysis of molecular and clinical features

BACKGROUND

The impact of annual influenza epidemics and prevailing strains varies worldwide and regional. The majority of vaccines used contained two influenza A strains and only one influenza B strain (trivalent vaccine).

AIM

The aim of the study was to compare laboratory confirmed influenza B cases during three consecutive years with respect to vaccination history, clinical symptoms and molecular virology.

METHODS

Partial HA gene sequences were analyzed for lineage determination and complete HA sequence in cases with reported vaccination and in fatal cases. Clinical data were retrieved from patient charts.

FINDINGS

During the 2015/16 season, 75 influenza B cases were retrieved; 11 in 2016/17, and 274 in 2017/18. The frequency of Yamagata-lineage strains increased from 7.6% to 100%. No difference was detected in the relative frequency of co-morbidities in season 2017/18. 37.7% of the adult patients and 4.5% of pediatric patients were vaccinated against influenza.

INTERPRETATION

Phylogenetically, Yamagata strains clustered similarly in 2017/2018 when compared to the previous two influenza seasons. While the relative frequency of influenza B cases differed, the clinical symptoms remained similar.

CONCLUSION

World Health Organization recommendations for the use of tetravalent vaccines that contain two influenza B strains (Yamagata and Victoria) in addition to the two influenza A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) should be implemented in national vaccination guidelines.

FUNDING

This research was partially supported by the Association of Sponsors and Friends of Leipzig University.

Functional immune response to influenza H1N1 in children and adults after live attenuated influenza virus vaccination

Influenza virus is a major respiratory pathogen, and vaccination is the main method of prophylaxis. In 2012, the trivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) was licensed in Europe for use in children. Vaccine-induced antibodies directed against the main viral surface glycoproteins, haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) play important roles in limiting virus infection. The objective of this study was to dissect the influenza-specific antibody responses in children and adults, and T cell responses in children induced after LAIV immunization to the A/H1N1 virus. Blood samples were collected pre- and at 28 and 56 days post-vaccination from 20 children and 20 adults. No increase in micro-neutralization (MN) antibodies against A/H1N1 was observed after vaccination. A/H1N1 stalk-specific neutralizing and NA-inhibiting (NI) antibodies were boosted in children after LAIV. Interferon γ-producing T cells increased significantly in children, and antibody-dependent cellular-mediated cytotoxic (ADCC) cell activity increased slightly in children after vaccination, although this change was not significant. The results indicate that the NI assay is more sensitive to qualitative changes in serum antibodies after LAIV. There was a considerable difference in the immune response in children and adults after vaccination, which may be related to priming and previous influenza history. Our findings warrant further studies for evaluating LAIV vaccination immunogenicity.

Characterising antibody kinetics from multiple influenza infection and vaccination events in ferrets

The strength and breadth of an individual's antibody repertoire is an important predictor of their response to influenza infection or vaccination. Although progress has been made in understanding qualitatively how repeated exposures shape the antibody mediated immune response, quantitative understanding remains limited. We developed a set of mathematical models describing short-term antibody kinetics following influenza infection or vaccination and fit them to haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres from 5 groups of ferrets which were exposed to different combinations of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV with or without adjuvant), A/H3N2 priming inoculation and post-vaccination A/H1N1 inoculation. We fit models with various immunological mechanisms that have been empirically observed but have not previously been included in mathematical models of antibody landscapes, including: titre ceiling effects, antigenic seniority and exposure-type specific cross reactivity. Based on the parameter estimates of the best supported models, we describe a number of key immunological features. We found quantifiable differences in the degree of homologous and cross-reactive antibody boosting elicited by different exposure types. Infection and adjuvanted vaccination generally resulted in strong, broadly reactive responses whereas unadjuvanted vaccination resulted in a weak, narrow response. We found that the order of exposure mattered: priming with A/H3N2 improved subsequent vaccine response, and the second dose of adjuvanted vaccination resulted in substantially greater antibody boosting than the first. Either antigenic seniority or a titre ceiling effect were included in the two best fitting models, suggesting a role for a mechanism describing diminishing antibody boosting with repeated exposures. Although there was considerable uncertainty in our estimates of antibody waning parameters, our results suggest that both short and long term waning were present and would be identifiable with a larger set of experiments. These results highlight the potential use of repeat exposure animal models in revealing short-term, strain-specific immune dynamics of influenza.

Influenza vaccination effectiveness for people aged under 65 years in Japan, 2013/2014 season: application of a doubly robust method to a large-scale, real-world dataset

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination is recognized as a primary public health intervention which prevents the illness of patients and relieves the societal burdens of influenza for medical community as well as the economy. To date, no effectiveness study of influenza vaccination has been conducted including a large population with a wide age span, in Japan. Here, we evaluated the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in a large Japanese population.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study using a large-scale claims database for employee health care insurance plans. Vaccination status was identified using plan records for influenza vaccination subsidies. We excluded people aged 65 years or more because of the unavailability of vaccination records. Effectiveness of vaccination in preventing influenza and its complication was evaluated with doubly robust methods using inversed probability treatment weighting to adjust health conscious behaviours and other confounders.

RESULTS

During the 2013/2014 influenza season, 369,425 subjects with age range from 1 to 64 years were eligible. Vaccination rate was 39.5% and an estimated odds ratio (OR) for influenza onset was 0.775 after doubly robust adjustment. Age-stratified ORs were significantly reduced in all age groups; lowest in subjects aged 1 to 4 years (0.600) and highest in those aged 13 to 19 (0.938). ORs for all the influenza complication outcomes were also statistically significant (0.403-0.709).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 1 to 64 years. Influenza vaccination significantly prevented influenza onset and was more effective in reducing secondary risks of influenza complications.

How to assess the effectiveness of nasal influenza vaccines? Role and measurement of sIgA in mucosal secretions

Secretory IgAs (sIgA) constitute the principal isotype of antibodies present in nasal and mucosal secretions. They are secreted by plasma cells adjacent to the mucosal epithelial cells, the site where infection occurs, and are the main humoral mediator of mucosal immunity. Mucosally delivered vaccines, such as live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), are able to mimic natural infection without causing disease or virus transmission and mainly elicit a local immune response. The measurement of sIgA concentrations in nasal swab/wash and saliva samples is therefore a valuable tool for evaluating their role in the effectiveness of such vaccines. Here, we describe two standardized assays (enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay and microneutralization) available for the quantification of sIgA and discuss the advantages and limitations of their use.

Modelling the population effectiveness of the national seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Scotland: The impact of targeting all individuals aged 65 years and over

BACKGROUND

For the last 17 years, the UK has employed a routine influenza vaccination programme with the aim of reducing the spread of seasonal influenza. In mid-2000, the programme moved from a purely risk-based approach to a risk and age group-targeted approach with all those aged 65+ years being included. To date, there has been no assessment of the population effectiveness of this age-targeted policy in Scotland.

OBJECTIVES

Statistical modelling techniques were used to determine what impact the routine vaccination of those aged 65+ years has had on influenza-related morbidity and mortality in Scotland.

METHODS

Two Poisson regression models were developed using weekly counts of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality and emergency hospitalisations for the period 1981-2012, one using week-in-year and the other using temperature to capture the seasonal variability in mortality/hospitalisations. These models were used to determine the number of excess deaths/hospitalisations associated with the introduction of the local risk and age-based vaccination programme in 2000.

RESULTS

Routinely vaccinating those aged 65+ years is associated with a reduction in excess all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and COPD-related mortality and COPD-related hospitalisations. Our analysis suggests that using the week-in-year model, on average, 732 (95% CI 66-1398) deaths from all causes, 248 (95% CI 10-486) cardiovascular-related deaths, 123 (95% CI 28-218) COPD-related deaths and 425 (95% CI 258-592) COPD-related hospitalisations have been prevented each flu season among the those aged 65+. Similar results were found using the temperature model. There was no evidence to suggest that the change in policy was associated with reductions in influenza/pneumonia-related mortality or influenza/cardiovascular-related hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Routinely vaccinating those aged 65+ years appears to have reduced influenza-related morbidity and mortality in Scotland. With the childhood vaccination programme well underway, these data provide an importance benchmark which can be used to accurately assess the impact of this new seasonal influenza vaccination programme.

Influenza epidemiology and influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2015-2016 season: results from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network is an international platform whose primary objective is to study severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization.

METHODS

During the 2015-2016 influenza season, 11 sites in the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network in nine countries (Russian Federation, Czech Republic, Turkey, France, China, Spain, Mexico, India, and Brazil) participated in a prospective, active-surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study. Influenza infection was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated using a test-negative approach.

RESULTS

9882 patients with laboratory results were included of which 2415 (24.4%) were positive for influenza, including 1415 (14.3%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 235 (2.4%) for A(H3N2), 180 (1.8%) for A not subtyped, 45 (0.5%) for B/Yamagata-lineage, 532 (5.4%) for B/Victoria-lineage, and 33 (0.3%) for B not subtyped. Of included admissions, 39% were < 5 years of age and 67% had no underlying conditions. The odds of being admitted with influenza were higher among pregnant than non-pregnant women (odds ratio, 2.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.90 to 4.19]). Adjusted IVE against influenza-related hospitalization was 16.3% (95% CI, 0.4 to 29.7). Among patients targeted for influenza vaccination, adjusted IVE against hospital admission with influenza was 16.2% (95% CI, - 3.6 to 32.2) overall, 23.0% (95% CI, - 3.3 to 42.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09, and - 25.6% (95% CI, - 86.3 to 15.4) against B/Victoria lineage.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2015-2016 influenza season was dominated by A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Victoria-lineage. Hospitalization with influenza often occurred in healthy and young individuals, and pregnant women were at increased risk of influenza-related hospitalization. Influenza vaccines provided low to moderate protection against hospitalization with influenza and no protection against the predominant circulating B lineage, highlighting the need for more effective and broader influenza vaccines.

Interim 2017/18 influenza seasonal vaccine effectiveness: combined results from five European studies

Between September 2017 and February 2018, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B viruses (mainly B/Yamagata, not included in 2017/18 trivalent vaccines) co-circulated in Europe. Interim results from five European studies indicate that, in all age groups, 2017/18 influenza vaccine effectiveness was 25 to 52% against any influenza, 55 to 68% against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, −42 to 7% against influenza A(H3N2) and 36 to 54% against influenza B. 2017/18 influenza vaccine should be promoted where influenza still circulates.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccine in preventing medically-attended influenza virus infection in primary care, Israel, influenza seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16

Influenza vaccine is recommended for the entire population in Israel. We assessed influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons in Israel, for the first time. Methods: Combined nose and throat swab specimens were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) presenting to sentinel primary care clinics and tested for influenza virus by RT-PCR. VE of the trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) was assessed using test-negative case–control design. Results: During the 2014/15 season 1,142 samples were collected; 327 (28.6%) were positive for influenza, 83.8% A(H3N2), 5.8% A(H1N1)pdm09, 9.2% B and 1.2% A un-subtyped. Adjusted VE against all influenza viruses for this influenza season was −4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): −54.8 to 29.0) and against influenza A(H3N2), it was −15.8% (95% CI: −72.8 to 22.4). For the 2015/16 season, 1,919 samples were collected; 853 (44.4%) were positive for influenza, 43.5% A(H1N1)pdm09, 57% B, 0.7% A(H3N2) and 11 samples positive for both A(H1N1)pdm09 and B. Adjusted VE against all influenza viruses for this influenza season was 8.8% (95% CI: −25.1 to 33.5), against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, it was 32.3% (95% CI: (−4.3 to 56.1) and against influenza B, it was −2.2% (95% CI: (−47.0 to 29.0). Conclusions: Using samples from patients with ILI visiting sentinel clinics in Israel, we demonstrated the feasibility of influenza VE estimation in Israel.

Beyond Antigenic Match: Possible Agent-Host and Immuno-epidemiological Influences on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2015-2016 Season in Canada

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates for 2015-2016 seasonal influenza vaccine are reported from Canada's Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN). This season was characterized by a delayed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) epidemic and concurrent influenza B(Victoria) virus activity. Potential influences on VE beyond antigenic match are explored, including viral genomic variation, birth cohort effects, prior vaccination, and epidemic period.

Methods

VE was estimated by a test-negative design comparing the adjusted odds ratio for influenza test positivity among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by gene sequencing and hemagglutination inhibition assay.

Results

Analyses included 596 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 305 B(Victoria) cases and 926 test-negative controls. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses were considered antigenically related to vaccine (unchanged since 2009), despite phylogenetic clustering within emerging clade 6B.1. The adjusted VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%-57%). Compared to other age groups, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was lower for adults born during 1957-1976 (25%; 95% CI, -16%-51%). The VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was also lower for participants consecutively vaccinated during both the current and prior seasons (41%; 95% CI, 18%-57%) than for those vaccinated during the current season only (75%; 95% CI, 45%-88%), and the VE among participants presenting in March-April 2016 (19%; 95% CI, -15%-44%) was lower than that among those presenting during January-February 2016 (62%; 95% CI, 44%-74%). The adjusted VE for B(Victoria) viruses was 54% (95% CI, 32%-68%), despite lineage-level mismatch to B(Yamagata) vaccine. The further variation in VE as observed for A(H1N1)pdm09 was not observed for B(Victoria).

Conclusions

Influenza VE findings may require consideration of other agent-host and immuno-epidemiologic influences on vaccine performance beyond antigenic match, including viral genomic variation, repeat vaccination, birth (immunological) cohort effects, and potential within-season waning of vaccine protection.

Serological surveillance of influenza in an English sentinel network: pilot study protocol

BACKGROUND

Rapidly undertaken age-stratified serology studies can produce valuable data about a new emerging infection including background population immunity and seroincidence during an influenza pandemic. Traditionally seroepidemiology studies have used surplus laboratory sera with little or no clinical information or have been expensive detailed population based studies. We propose collecting population based sera from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), a sentinel network with extensive clinical data.

AIM

To pilot a mechanism to undertake population based surveys that collect serological specimens and associated patient data to measure seropositivity and seroincidence due to seasonal influenza, and create a population based serology bank. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Setting and Participants: We will recruit 6 RCGP RSC practices already taking nasopharyngeal virology swabs. Patients who attend a scheduled blood test will be consented to donate additional blood samples. Approximately 100-150 blood samples will be collected from each of the following age bands - 18- 29, 30- 39, 40- 49, 50- 59, 60- 69 and 70+ years.

METHODS

We will send the samples to the Public Health England (PHE) Seroepidemiology Unit for processing and storage. These samples will be tested for influenza antibodies, using haemagglutination inhibition assays. Serology results will be pseudonymised, sent to the RCGP RSC and combined using existing processes at the RCGP RSC secure hub. The influenza seroprevalence results from the RCGP cohort will be compared against those from the annual PHE influenza residual serosurvey.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was granted by the Proportionate Review Sub- Committee of the London - Camden & Kings Cross on 6 February 2018. This study received approval from Health Research Authority on 7 February 2018. On completion the results will be made available via peer-reviewed journals.

Burden, effectiveness and safety of influenza vaccines in elderly, paediatric and pregnant populations

Vaccination is the most practical means available for preventing influenza. Influenza vaccines require frequent updates to keep pace with antigenic drift of the virus, and the effectiveness, and sometimes the safety, of the vaccine can therefore vary from season to season. Three key populations that the World Health Organization recommends should be prioritized for influenza vaccination are pregnant women, children younger than 5 years of age and the elderly. This review discusses the burden of influenza and the safety and effectiveness profile of influenza vaccines recommended for these groups.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination on influenza-associated hospitalisations over time among children in Hong Kong: a test-negative case-control study

BACKGROUND

The protection conferred by influenza vaccination is generally thought to last less than a year, necessitating annual revaccination. However, the speed with which influenza vaccine effectiveness might decline during a year is unknown, which is of particular importance for locations with year-round influenza activity. We aimed to assess how influenza vaccine effectiveness changes by time intervals between vaccination and admission to hospital, taking advantage of almost year-round circulation of influenza in Hong Kong.

METHODS

In this test-negative case-control study, we analysed vaccine effectiveness in children (aged 6 months to 17 years) who were admitted to hospital in Hong Kong over 5 consecutive years (2012-17). We included those who were admitted to general wards in four public hospitals in Hong Kong with a fever (≥38°C) and any respiratory symptom, such as runny nose, cough, or sore throat. We used direct immunofluorescence assay and reverse transcription PCR to detect influenza virus infection, and recorded children's influenza immunisation history. We compared characteristics of positive cases and negative controls and examined how vaccine effectiveness changed by time between vaccination and admission to hospital with regression analyses.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 1, 2012, and Aug 31, 2017, we enrolled 15 695 children hospitalised for respiratory infections, including 2500 (15·9%) who tested positive for influenza A or B and 13 195 (84·1%) who tested negative. 159 (6·4%) influenza-positive cases and 1445 (11·0%) influenza-negative cases had been vaccinated. Most vaccinations were done by December of each influenza vaccination season. Influenza-related admissions to hospital occurred year-round, with peaks in January through March in most years and a large summer peak in 2016; pooled vaccine effectiveness for children of all ages was 79% (95% CI 42-92) for September to December, 67% (57-74) for January to April, and 43% (25-57) for May to August. Vaccine effectiveness against influenza A or B was estimated as 79% (95% CI 64-88) within 0·5-2 months of vaccination, 60% (46-71) within >2-4 months, 57% (39-70) within >4-6 months, and 45% (22-61) within >6-9 months. In separate analyses by type and subtype, we estimated that vaccine effectiveness declined by 2-5 percentage points per month.

INTERPRETATION

Influenza vaccine effectiveness decreased during the 9 months after vaccination in children in Hong Kong. Our findings confirm the importance of annual vaccination in children. Influenza vaccines that provide broader and longer-lasting protection are needed to provide year-round protection in regions with irregular influenza seasonality or lengthy periods of influenza activity.

FUNDING

Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong and the Research Grants Council, Hong Kong.

Effectiveness of Live Attenuated vs Inactivated Influenza Vaccines in Children During the 2012-2013 Through 2015-2016 Influenza Seasons in Alberta, Canada: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Study

IMPORTANCE

Recent observational studies report conflicting results regarding the effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), particularly against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of LAIV and inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A test-negative study to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) using population-based, linked, individual-level laboratory, health administrative, and immunization data. Data were obtained from 10 169 children and adolescents aged 2 to 17 years (children) who were tested for influenza in inpatient or outpatient settings during periods when influenza was circulating based on a threshold level of 5% weekly test positivity for the province during the 4 influenza seasons spanning from November 11, 2012, to April 30, 2016, in Alberta, Canada. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE by vaccine type, influenza season, and influenza type and subtype. The relative effectiveness of each vaccine type was assessed by comparing the odds of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection for LAIV recipients with that for IIV recipients.

EXPOSURES

The primary exposure was receipt of LAIV or IIV before testing for influenza.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was influenza case status as determined by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction testing.

RESULTS

A total of 10 779 respiratory specimens (from 10 169 children) collected and tested for influenza during the 4 influenza seasons were included, with 53.4% from males; the mean (SD) age was 7.0 (4.6) years. Across the 4 influenza seasons, 3161 children tested positive for influenza. Combining the 4 influenza seasons, the adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 69% (95% CI, 56%-78%) for LAIV compared with 79% (95% CI, 70%-86%) for IIV. Vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) was 36% (95% CI, 14%-53%) for LAIV and 43% (95% CI, 22%-59%) for IIV. Against influenza B, VE was 74% (95% CI, 62%-82%) for LAIV and 56% (95% CI, 41%-66%) for IIV. There were no significant differences in the odds of influenza infection for LAIV recipients compared with IIV recipients except for influenza B during the 2015-2016 season, when LAIV recipients had lower odds of infection than IIV recipients (odds ratio, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.17-0.76).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There was no evidence to support the lack of effectiveness of LAIV against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These results support administration of either vaccine type in this age group.

Kinetic, Thermodynamic, and Structural Analysis of Drug Resistance Mutations in Neuraminidase from the 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus

Neuraminidase is the main target for current influenza drugs. Reduced susceptibility to oseltamivir, the most widely prescribed neuraminidase inhibitor, has been repeatedly reported. The resistance substitutions I223V and S247N, alone or in combination with the major oseltamivir-resistance mutation H275Y, have been observed in 2009 pandemic H1N1 viruses. We overexpressed and purified the ectodomain of wild-type neuraminidase from the A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) influenza virus, as well as variants containing H275Y, I223V, and S247N single mutations and H275Y/I223V and H275Y/S247N double mutations. We performed enzymological and thermodynamic analyses and structurally examined the resistance mechanism. Our results reveal that the I223V or S247N substitution alone confers only a moderate reduction in oseltamivir affinity. In contrast, the major oseltamivir resistance mutation H275Y causes a significant decrease in the enzyme’s ability to bind this drug. Combination of H275Y with an I223V or S247N mutation results in extreme impairment of oseltamivir’s inhibition potency. Our structural analyses revealed that the H275Y substitution has a major effect on the oseltamivir binding pose within the active site while the influence of other studied mutations is much less prominent. Our crystal structures also helped explain the augmenting effect on resistance of combining H275Y with both substitutions.