Beyond Antigenic Match: Possible Agent-Host and Immuno-epidemiological Influences on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2015-2016 Season in Canada

Seasonal influenza vaccine performance and the potential benefits of mRNA vaccines

Influenza remains a public health threat, partly due to suboptimal effectiveness of vaccines. One factor impacting vaccine effectiveness is strain mismatch, occurring when vaccines no longer match circulating strains due to antigenic drift or the incorporation of inadvertent (eg, egg-adaptive) mutations during vaccine manufacturing. In this review, we summarize the evidence for antigenic drift of circulating viruses and/or egg-adaptive mutations occurring in vaccine strains during the 2011-2020 influenza seasons. Evidence suggests that antigenic drift led to vaccine mismatch during four seasons and that egg-adaptive mutations caused vaccine mismatch during six seasons. These findings highlight the need for alternative vaccine development platforms. Recently, vaccines based on mRNA technology have demonstrated efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus and are under clinical evaluation for seasonal influenza. We discuss the potential for mRNA vaccines to address strain mismatch, as well as new multi-component strategies using the mRNA platform to improve vaccine effectiveness.

Immune imprinting of SARS-CoV-2 responses: changing first immune impressions

Since the emergence of the ancestral severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the successful rollout of protective vaccines based on this original strain, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved into several variants, in a classical virus-host arms race typical of RNA viruses, to progressively evade the host immune response. Next-generation bivalent vaccines have been developed with broader protection against emerging variants than the ancestral vaccine. Nonetheless, even these vaccines show lower protection against the latest Omicron variants. Immune printing describes how an immune response to an immunogen is impacted by earlier exposures to a related immunogen. Several lessons about the effect of immune imprinting on responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, including age-associated impacts, can be learned from influenza. Understanding the mechanisms of imprinting of SARS-CoV-2 will be important to inform the design of vaccines that produce broader and more durable protective immune responses to emerging variants.

The association between influenza vaccine effectiveness and egg-based manufacturing technology: literature review and US expert consensus

BACKGROUND

Influenza is associated with significant disease burden in the US and is currently best controlled by vaccination programs. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is low and may be reduced by several factors, including egg adaptations. Although non-egg-based influenza vaccines reportedly have greater VE in egg-adapted seasons, evidence for egg adaptations' reduction of VE is indirect and dissociated, apart from two previous European consensuses.

METHODS

This study replicated the methodology used in a 2020 literature review and European consensus, providing an updated review and consensus opinion of 10 US experts on the evidence for a mechanistic basis for reduction of VE due to egg-based manufacturing methods. A mechanistic basis was assumed if sufficient evidence was found for underlying principles proposed to give rise to such an effect. Evidence for each principle was brought forward from the 2020 review and identified here by structured literature review and expert panel. Experts rated the strength of support for each principle and a mechanistic basis for reduction of VE due to egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture in a consensus method (consensus for strong/very strong evidence = ≥ 3.5 on 5-point Likert scale).

RESULTS

Experts assessed 251 references (from previous study: 185; this study: 66). The majority of references for all underlying principles were rated as strong or very strong supporting evidence (52-86%). Global surveillance, WHO candidate vaccine virus selection, and manufacturing stages involving eggs were identified as most likely to impact influenza VE.

CONCLUSION

After review of extensive evidence for reduction of VE due to egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture, influenza experts in the US joined those in Europe in unanimous agreement for a mechanistic basis for the effect. Vaccine providers and administrators should consider use of non-egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture to reduce the risk of egg adaptations and likely impact on VE.

2023/24 mid-season influenza and Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness estimates from the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN)

The Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports mid-season 2023/24 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 63% (95% CI: 51-72) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, lower for clade 5a.2a.1 (56%; 95% CI: 33-71) than clade 5a.2a (67%; 95% CI: 48-80), and lowest against influenza A(H3N2) (40%; 95% CI: 5-61). The Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine protected comparably well, with VE of 47% (95% CI: 21-65) against medically attended COVID-19, higher among people reporting a prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at 67% (95% CI: 28-85).

Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin

Human influenza virus evolves to escape neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. However, we have a limited understanding of how the antigenic effects of viral mutations vary across the human population, and how this heterogeneity affects virus evolution. Here we use deep mutational scanning to map how mutations to the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of the A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2) and A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2) strains affect neutralization by serum from individuals of a variety of ages. The effects of HA mutations on serum neutralization differ across age groups in ways that can be partially rationalized in terms of exposure histories. Mutations that fixed in influenza variants after 2020 cause the greatest escape from sera from younger individuals. Overall, these results demonstrate that influenza faces distinct antigenic selection regimes from different age groups, and suggest approaches to understand how this heterogeneous selection shapes viral evolution.

Does the Australian influenza season predict the Canadian influenza season? A qualitative comparison of seasons, 2014-2020

A commonly held belief by the Canadian media and public is that the Australian influenza season is a fairly reliable indicator of what the Canadian influenza season that follows might be like. However, this claim is not well substantiated with epidemiological evidence. Therefore, the objective of this work was to qualitatively compare the timing of the onset, peak, and intensity of influenza activity, the dominant circulating influenza strains, and the seasonal vaccine and vaccination policies from 2014 to 2020 between Canada and Australia, using a combination of FluNet data and influenza surveillance reports and publications. Across the epidemiological indicators considered, the epidemics between Canada and Australia often differ. While vaccination policies and coverage are similar between the two countries, vaccine composition and vaccine effectiveness estimates also differ. Ultimately, there are many differences and confounding variables between the Australian and Canadian influenza seasons across numerous indicators that preclude the use of the Australian influenza season as the sole predictor of the Canadian influenza season. However, the availability of global surveillance data and robust national and sub-national surveillance data can provide lead time and inform within-season resource and capacity planning, as well as mitigation measures, for seasonal influenza epidemics.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Persons Aged 15-64 Years: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42-54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2-64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5-51.9) otherwise. The TNDs' adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31-48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7-50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0-40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Influenza vaccine viruses and the development of seasonal vaccines: A Japanese perspective

In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) designates one specific virus strain for each component of the quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine, and four domestic manufacturers produce egg-based influenza vaccines with the same formulation (inactivated, split-virus) using uniform vaccine strains. Thus, discussions of the development of effective seasonal influenza vaccines so far has focused solely on the antigenic match between the vaccine strains and epidemic viruses. However, in 2017, the Japanese selection system of vaccine viruses demonstrated that even a candidate vaccine virus that is antigenically similar to the predicted circulating viruses is not necessarily suitable for vaccine production, given lower productivity of the vaccine. Taking this experience into account, the MHLW reformed the scheme of vaccine strain selection in 2018, and instructed the Vaccine Epidemiology Research Group created by the MHLW to probe how the virus strains for the seasonal influenza vaccine should be selected in Japan. In this context, a symposium, entitled "Issues of the Present Seasonal Influenza Vaccines and Future Prospects", was held as part of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society for Vaccinology in 2018, and subjects related to the influenza vaccine viruses were discussed among relevant administrators, manufacturers, and researchers. This report summarizes the presentations given at that symposium in order to convey the present scheme of vaccine virus selection, the evaluation of the resulting vaccines, and the efforts at new vaccine formulation in Japan. Notably, from March 2022, the MHLW has launched a discussion of the merits of the seasonal influenza vaccines produced by foreign manufacturers.

Mapping the Antibody Repertoires in Ferrets with Repeated Influenza A/H3 Infections: Is Original Antigenic Sin Really "Sinful"?

The influenza-specific antibody repertoire is continuously reshaped by infection and vaccination. The host immune response to contemporary viruses can be redirected to preferentially boost antibodies specific for viruses encountered early in life, a phenomenon called original antigenic sin (OAS) that is suggested to be responsible for diminished vaccine effectiveness after repeated seasonal vaccination. Using a new computational tool called Neutralization Landscapes, we tracked the progression of hemagglutination inhibition antibodies within ferret antisera elicited by repeated influenza A/H3 infections and deciphered the influence of prior exposures on the de novo antibody response to evolved viruses. The results indicate that a broadly neutralizing antibody signature can nevertheless be induced by repeated exposures despite OAS induction. Our study offers a new way to visualize how immune history shapes individual antibodies within a repertoire, which may help to inform future universal influenza vaccine design.

Does repeated influenza vaccination attenuate effectiveness? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccines require annual readministration; however, several reports have suggested that repeated vaccination might attenuate the vaccine's effectiveness. We aimed to estimate the reduction in vaccine effectiveness associated with repeated influenza vaccination.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Complete databases for articles published from Jan 1, 2016, to June 13, 2022, and Web of Science for studies published from database inception to June 13, 2022. For studies published before Jan 1, 2016, we consulted published systematic reviews. Two reviewers (EJ-G and EJR) independently screened, extracted data using a data collection form, assessed studies' risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) and evaluated the weight of evidence by Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). We included observational studies and randomised controlled trials that reported vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), or influenza B using four vaccination groups: current season; previous season; current and previous seasons; and neither season (reference). For each study, we calculated the absolute difference in vaccine effectiveness (ΔVE) for current season only and previous season only versus current and previous season vaccination to estimate attenuation associated with repeated vaccination. Pooled vaccine effectiveness and ∆VE were calculated by season, age group, and overall. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021260242.

FINDINGS

We identified 4979 publications, selected 681 for full review, and included 83 in the systematic review and 41 in meta-analyses. ΔVE for vaccination in both seasons compared with the current season was -9% (95% CI -16 to -1, I²=0%; low certainty) for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, -18% (-26 to -11, I²=7%; low certainty) for influenza A(H3N2), and -7% (-14 to 0, I²=0%; low certainty) for influenza B, indicating lower protection with consecutive vaccination. However, for all types, A subtypes and B lineages, vaccination in both seasons afforded better protection than not being vaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that, although vaccination in the previous year attenuates vaccine effectiveness, vaccination in two consecutive years provides better protection than does no vaccination. The estimated effects of vaccination in the previous year are concerning and warrant additional investigation, but are not consistent or severe enough to support an alternative vaccination regimen at this time.

FUNDING

WHO and the US National Institutes of Health.

Immune interference in effectiveness of influenza and COVID-19 vaccination

Vaccines are known to function as the most effective interventional therapeutics for controlling infectious diseases, including polio, smallpox, rabies, tuberculosis, influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Smallpox has been eliminated completely and polio is almost extinct because of vaccines. Rabies vaccines and Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccines could effectively protect humans against respective infections. However, both influenza vaccines and COVID-19 vaccines are unable to eliminate these two infectious diseases of their highly variable antigenic sites in viral proteins. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) could be negatively influenced (i.e., interfered with) by immune imprinting of previous infections or vaccinations, and repeated vaccinations could interfere with VE against infections due to mismatch between vaccine strains and endemic viral strains. Moreover, VE could also be interfered with when more than one kind of vaccine is administrated concomitantly (i.e., co-administrated), suggesting that the VE could be modulated by the vaccine-induced immunity. In this review, we revisit the evidence that support the interfered VE result from immune imprinting or repeated vaccinations in influenza and COVID-19 vaccine, and the interference in co-administration of these two types of vaccines is also discussed. Regarding the development of next-generation COVID-19 vaccines, the researchers should focus on the induction of cross-reactive T-cell responses and naive B-cell responses to overcome negative effects from the immune system itself. The strategy of co-administrating influenza and COVID-19 vaccine needs to be considered more carefully and more clinical data is needed to verify this strategy to be safe and immunogenic.

COVID-19 and children

There has been substantial research on adult COVID-19 and how to treat it. But how do severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections afflict children? The COVID-19 pandemic has yielded many surprises, not least that children generally develop less severe disease than older adults, which is unusual for a respiratory disease. However, some children can develop serious complications from COVID-19, such as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) and Long Covid, even after mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. Why this occurs in some and not others is an important question. Moreover, when children do contract COVID-19, understanding their role in transmission, especially in schools and at home, is crucial to ensuring effective mitigation measures. Therefore, in addition to nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as improved ventilation, there is a strong case to vaccinate children so as to reduce possible long-term effects from infection and to decrease transmission. But questions remain about whether vaccination might skew immune responses to variants in the long term. As the experts discuss below, more is being learned about these important issues, but much more research is needed to understand the long-term effects of COVID-19 in children.

Analysis of Viral and Host Factors on Immunogenicity of 2018, 2019, and 2020 Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Adults in Brazil

Annual vaccination against influenza is the best tool to prevent deaths and hospitalizations. Regular updates of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (TIV) are necessary due to high mutation rates in influenza viruses. TIV effectiveness is affected by antigenic mismatches, age, previous immunity, and other host factors. Studying TIV effectiveness annually in different populations is critical. The serological responses to Southern-Hemisphere TIV and circulating influenza strains were evaluated in 2018−2020 among Brazilian volunteers, using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Post-vaccination titers were corrected to account for pre-vaccination titers. Our population achieved >83% post-vaccination seroprotection levels, whereas seroconversion rates ranged from 10% to 46%. TIV significantly enhanced antibody titers and seroprotection against all prior and contemporary vaccine and circulating strains tested. Strong cross-reactive responses were detected, especially between H1N1 subtypes. A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016, included in the 2018 TIV, induced the poorest response. Significant titer and seroprotection reductions were observed 6 and 12 months after vaccination. Age had a slight effect on TIV response, whereas previous vaccination was associated with lower seroconversion rates and titers. Despite this, TIV induced high seroprotection for all strains, in all groups. Regular TIV evaluations, based on regional influenza strain circulation, should be conducted and the factors affecting response studied.

A Complementary Union of SARS-CoV2 Natural and Vaccine Induced Immune Responses

Our understanding of the immune responses that follow SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination has progressed considerably since the COVID-19 pandemic was first declared on the 11th of March in 2020. Recovery from infection is associated with the development of protective immune responses, although over time these become less effective against new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Consequently, reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 variants is not infrequent and has contributed to the ongoing pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines have had a tremendous impact on reducing infection and particularly the number of deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, waning of vaccine induced immunity plus the emergence of new variants has necessitated the use of boosters to maintain the benefits of vaccination in reducing COVID-19 associated deaths. Boosting is also beneficial for individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 and developed natural immunity, also enhancing responses immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants. This review summarizes our understanding of the immune responses that follow SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, the risks of reinfection with emerging variants and the very important protective role vaccine boosting plays in both vaccinated and previously infected individuals.

Seasonal influenza vaccination expands hemagglutinin-specific antibody breadth to older and future A/H3N2 viruses

History of influenza A/H3N2 exposure, especially childhood infection, shape antibody responses after influenza vaccination and infection, but have not been extensively studied. We investigated the breadth and durability of influenza A/H3N2-specific hemagglutinin-inhibition antibodies after live-attenuated influenza vaccine in children (aged 3-17 years, n = 42), and after inactivated influenza vaccine or infection in adults (aged 22-61 years, n = 42) using 14 antigenically distinct A/H3N2 viruses circulating from 1968 to 2018. We found that vaccination and infection elicited cross-reactive antibody responses, predominantly directed against newer or future strains. Childhood H3-priming increased the breadth and magnitude of back-boosted A/H3N2-specific antibodies in adults. Broader and more durable A/H3N2-specific antibodies were observed in repeatedly vaccinated adults than in children and previously unvaccinated adults. Our findings suggest that early A/H3N2 exposure and frequent seasonal vaccination could increase the breadth and seropositivity of antibody responses, which may improve vaccine protection against future viruses.

Next generation live-attenuated influenza vaccine platforms

INTRODUCTION

Influenza virus is a major cause of seasonal epidemics and intermittent pandemics. Despite the current molecular biology and vaccine development, influenza virus infection is a significant burden. Vaccines are considered an essential countermeasure for effective control and prevention of influenza virus infection. Even though current influenza virus vaccines provide efficient protection against seasonal influenza outbreaks, the efficacy of these vaccines is not suitable due to antigenic changes of the viruses.

AREAS COVERED

This review focuses on different live-attenuated platforms for influenza virus vaccine development and proposes essential considerations for a rational universal influenza virus vaccine design.

EXPERT OPINION

Despite the recent efforts for universal influenza virus vaccines, there is a lack of broadly reactive antibodies' induction that can confer broad and long-lasting protection. Various strategies using live-attenuated influenza virus vaccines (LAIVs) are investigated to induce broadly reactive, durable, and cross-protective immune responses. LAIVs based on NS segment truncation prevent influenza virus infection and have shown to be effective vaccine candidates among other vaccine platforms. Although many approaches have been used for LAIVs generation, there is still a need to focus on the LAIVs development platforms to generate a universal influenza virus vaccine candidate.

Impact of prior infection and repeated vaccination on post-vaccination antibody titers of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain in Taiwan schoolchildren: Implications for public health

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of prior-infection and repeated vaccination on post-vaccination antibody titers.

METHODS

A(H1N1)pdm09 strain was included in 2009 pandemic monovalent, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 trivalent influenza vaccines (MIVpdm09, TIV10/11, TIV11/12) in Taiwan. During the 2011-2012 influenza season, we conducted a prospective sero-epidemiological cohort study among schoolchildren from grades 1 - 6 in the two elementary schools in Taipei with documented A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination records since 2009. Serum samples were collected at pre-vaccination, 1-month, and 4-months post-vaccination (T1, T2, T3). Anti-A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutination inhibition titers (HI-Ab-titers) were examined. We also investigated the impact of four vaccination histories [(1) no previous vaccination (None), (2) vaccinated in 2009-2010 season (09v), (3) vaccinated in 2010-2011 season (10v), and (4) vaccinated consecutively in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons (09v + 10v)] and pre-vaccination HI-Ab levels on post-vaccination HI-Ab responses as well as adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against serologically-defined infection from T2 to T3.

RESULTS

TIV11/12 had zero serious adverse events reported. A(H1N1)pdm09 strain in TIV11/12 elicited seroprotective Ab-titers in 98% of children and showed promising protection (aVE: 70.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 51.0-82.1%]). Previously unvaccinated but infected children had a 3.96 times higher T2 geometric mean titer (T2-GMT) of HI-Ab than those naïve to A(H1N1)pdm09 (GMT [95% CI]: 1039.7[585.3-1845.9] vs. 262.5[65.9-1045], p = 0.046). Previously vaccinated children with seroprotective T1-Ab-titers had a higher T2-GMT and a greater aVE than those with non-seroprotective T1-Ab-titers. Repeatedly vaccinated children had lower T2-GMT than those receiving primary doses of TIV11/12. However, after controlling prior infection and T1-Ab-titers, differences in T2-GMT among the four vaccination histories became insignificant (p = 0.16).

CONCLUSION

This study supports the implementation of annual mass-vaccination with A(H1N1)pdm09 in schoolchildren for three consecutive influenza seasons when vaccine and circulating strains were well matched, and found that prior infection and pre-vaccination HI-Ab levels positively impacted post-vaccination HI-Ab responses.

Role of Age in the Spread of Influenza, 2011-2019: Data From the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network

Intraseason timing of influenza infection among persons of different ages could reflect relative contributions to propagation of seasonal epidemics and has not been examined among ambulatory patients. Using data from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, we calculated risk ratios derived from comparing weekly numbers of influenza cases prepeak with those postpeak during the 2010-2011 through 2018-2019 influenza seasons. We sought to determine age-specific differences during the ascent versus descent of an influenza season by influenza virus type and subtype. We estimated 95% credible intervals around the risk ratios using Bayesian joint posterior sampling of weekly cases. Our population consisted of ambulatory patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza who enrolled in an influenza vaccine effectiveness study at 5 US sites during 9 influenza seasons after the 2009 influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (H1N1) pandemic. We observed that young children aged <5 years tended to more often be infected with H1N1 during the prepeak period, while adults aged ≥65 years tended to more often be infected with H1N1 during the postpeak period. However, for influenza A virus subtype H3N2, children aged <5 years were more often infected during the postpeak period. These results may reflect a contribution of different age groups to seasonal spread, which may differ by influenza virus type and subtype.

Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus

The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% - 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% - 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.

Antigenic distance between North American swine and human seasonal H3N2 influenza A viruses as an indication of zoonotic risk to humans

Human-to-swine transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) repeatedly occurs, leading to sustained transmission and increased diversity in swine; human seasonal H3N2 introductions occurred in the 1990s and 2010s and were maintained in North American swine. Swine H3N2 were subsequently associated with zoonotic infections, highlighting the need to understand the risk of endemic swine IAV to humans. We quantified antigenic distances between swine H3N2 and human seasonal vaccine strains from 1973 to 2014 using a panel of monovalent antisera raised in pigs in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Swine H3N2 lineages retained closest antigenic similarity to human vaccine strains from the decade of incursion. Swine lineages from the 1990s were antigenically more similar to human vaccine strains of the mid-1990s but had substantial distance from recent human vaccine strains. In contrast, lineages from the 2010s were closer to human vaccine strains from 2011 and 2014 and most antigenically distant from human vaccine strains prior to 2007. HI assays using ferret antisera demonstrated that swine lineages from the 1990s and 2010s had significant fold-reduction compared with the homologous HI titer of the nearest pandemic preparedness candidate vaccine virus (CVV) or seasonal vaccine strain. The assessment of post-infection and post-vaccination human sera cohorts demonstrated limited cross-reactivity to swine H3N2 from the 1990s, especially in older adults born before 1970s. We identified swine strains to which humans are likely to lack population immunity or are not protected against by a current human seasonal vaccine or CVV to use in prioritizing future human CVV strain selection. IMPORTANCE Human H3N2 influenza A viruses spread to pigs in North America in the 1990s and more recently in the 2010s. These cross-species events led to sustained circulation and increased H3N2 diversity in pig populations. Evolution of H3N2 in swine led to a reduced similarity with human seasonal H3N2 and the vaccine strains used to protect human populations. We quantified the antigenic phenotypes and found that North American swine H3N2 lineages retained more antigenic similarity to historical human vaccine strains from the decade of incursion but had substantial difference compared with recent human vaccine strains. Additionally, pandemic preparedness vaccine strains demonstrated a loss in similarity with contemporary swine strains. Lastly, human sera revealed that although these adults had antibodies against human H3N2 strains, many had limited immunity to swine H3N2, especially older adults born before 1970. Antigenic assessment of swine H3N2 provides critical information for pandemic preparedness and candidate vaccine development.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness: New Insights and Challenges

Methods for assessing influenza vaccine efficacy and effectiveness have evolved over six decades. Randomized trials remain the gold standard for licensure, but observational studies are needed for annual assessment of vaccine effectiveness (VE). The test-negative design (TND) has become the de facto standard for these field studies. Patients who seek medical care with acute respiratory illness are tested for influenza, and VE is estimated from the odds of vaccination among influenza cases versus test-negative controls. VE varies across seasons, populations, age groups, and products, but VE estimates are consistently higher for A(H1N1)pdm09 and type B compared with A(H3N2). VE studies are increasingly used in combination with molecular epidemiology to understand the viral and immune system factors that drive clinical efficacy and effectiveness. The emerging field of immunoepidemiology offers the potential to understand complex host-virus interactions that affect vaccine protection, and this knowledge will contribute to universal vaccine development.

Effectiveness of Trivalent and Quadrivalent Inactivated Vaccines Against Influenza B in the United States, 2011-2012 to 2016-2017

Background

Since 2013, quadrivalent influenza vaccines containing 2 B viruses gradually replaced trivalent vaccines in the United States. We compared the vaccine effectiveness of quadrivalent to trivalent inactivated vaccines (IIV4 to IIV3, respectively) against illness due to influenza B during the transition, when IIV4 use increased rapidly.

Methods

The US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (Flu VE) Network analyzed 25 019 of 42 600 outpatients aged ≥6 months who enrolled within 7 days of illness onset during 6 seasons from 2011–2012. Upper respiratory specimens were tested for the influenza virus type and B lineage. Using logistic regression, we estimated IIV4 or IIV3 effectiveness by comparing the odds of an influenza B infection overall and the odds of B lineage among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants. Over 4 seasons from 2013–2014, we compared the relative odds of an influenza B infection among IIV4 versus IIV3 recipients.

Results

Trivalent vaccines included the predominantly circulating B lineage in 4 of 6 seasons. During 4 influenza seasons when both IIV4 and IIV3 were widely used, the overall effectiveness against any influenza B was 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45–59) for IIV4 versus 45% (95% CI, 34–54) for IIV3. IIV4 was more effective than IIV3 against the B lineage not included in IIV3, but comparative effectiveness against illnesses related to any influenza B favored neither vaccine valency.

Conclusions

The uptake of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines was not associated with increased protection against any influenza B illness, despite the higher effectiveness of quadrivalent vaccines against the added B virus lineage. Public health impact and cost-benefit analyses are needed globally.

Interim seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates as proxy for final estimates: analysis of systematically identified matched pairs of interim/final estimates from test-negative design studies in outpatient settings from 2010/11 to 2018/19

OBJECTIVES

Limited time for seasonal influenza vaccine development means that the World Health Organization has to consider interim (early) rather than final vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates in deciding influenza vaccine composition. We assessed agreement between interim and final VE estimates, and factors that may determine a substantial difference (≥10%) between point estimates.

METHODS

This was a mixed methods study. We systematically searched, identified, and matched interim/final VE studies of test-negative design (TND) type in outpatient settings after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. The chi-square statistic (χ2) was used to assess the statistical significance of the difference between paired interim/final VE estimates. We calculated the difference between point estimates and used multivariable logistic regression to assess factors that may determine a substantial difference.

RESULTS

We identified 68 interim/final VE pairs. There was no statistically significant difference between almost all compared pairs. An inconsistent statistical model for interim/final VE estimation and interim VE estimation before the epidemic peak increased the odds of having a substantial difference between estimates.

CONCLUSION

: Interim influenza VE appears to be sufficient for vaccine composition decision-making. Consistency in interim/final VE estimation, and interim VE estimation during/after epidemic peak may increase agreement between the VE estimates.

Differences between Frequentist and Bayesian inference in routine surveillance for influenza vaccine effectiveness: a test-negative case-control study

Background

Routine influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) surveillance networks use frequentist methods to estimate VE. With data from more than a decade of VE surveillance from diverse global populations now available, using Bayesian methods to explicitly account for this knowledge may be beneficial. This study explores differences between Bayesian vs. frequentist inference in multiple seasons with varying VE.

Methods

We used data from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (US Flu VE) Network. Ambulatory care patients with acute respiratory illness were enrolled during seasons of varying observed VE based on traditional frequentist methods. We estimated VE against A(H1N1)pdm in 2015/16, dominated by A(H1N1)pdm; against A(H3N2) in 2017/18, dominated by A(H3N2); and compared VE for live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) vs. inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2–17 years in 2013/14, also dominated by A(H1N1)pdm. VE was estimated using both frequentist and Bayesian methods using the test-negative design. For the Bayesian estimates, prior VE distributions were based on data from all published test-negative studies of the same influenza type/subtype available prior to the season of interest.

Results

Across the three seasons, 16,342 subjects were included in the analyses. For 2015/16, frequentist and Bayesian VE estimates were essentially identical (41% each). For 2017/18, frequentist and Bayesian estimates of VE against A(H3N2) viruses were also nearly identical (26% vs. 23%, respectively), even though the presence of apparent antigenic match could potentially have pulled Bayesian estimates upward. Precision of estimates was similar between methods in both seasons. Frequentist and Bayesian estimates diverged for children in 2013/14. Under the frequentist approach, LAIV effectiveness was 62 percentage points lower than IIV, while LAIV was only 27 percentage points lower than IIV under the Bayesian approach.

Conclusion

Bayesian estimates of influenza VE can differ from frequentist estimates to a clinically meaningful degree when VE diverges substantially from previous seasons.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10543-z.

Decline in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness With Vaccination Program Maturation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that repeated influenza vaccination may reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE). Using influenza vaccination program maturation (PM; number of years since program inception) as a proxy for population-level repeated vaccination, we assessed the impact on pooled adjusted end-season VE estimates from outpatient test-negative design studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched and selected full-text publications from January 2011 to February 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42017064595). We obtained influenza vaccination program inception year for each country and calculated PM as the difference between the year of deployment and year of program inception. We categorized PM into halves (cut at the median), tertiles, and quartiles and calculated pooled VE using an inverse-variance random-effects model. The primary outcome was pooled VE against all influenza.

RESULTS

We included 72 articles from 11 931 citations. Across the 3 categorizations of PM, a lower pooled VE against all influenza for all patients was observed with PM. Substantially higher reductions were observed in older adults (≥65 years). We observed similar results for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and influenza B.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests that influenza VE declines with vaccination PM. This study forms the basis for further discussions and examinations of the potential impact of vaccination PM on seasonal VE.

Variable seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from test-negative design studies after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND

We examined the influence of some factors on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched for full-text publications of VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza from TND studies in outpatient settings after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data from the included studies. We calculated pooled adjusted VE across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, using an inverse variance, random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 76 full-text articles from 11,931 citations. VE estimates against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were homogenous and point pooled VE higher in the Southern hemisphere compared with the Northern hemisphere. The difference in pooled VE between the Southern and Northern hemispheres was statistically significant for A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza. A consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across both hemispheres and continents, with the highest point pooled VE being against A(H1N1)pdm09, followed by influenza B, and lowest against A(H3N2). A nearly consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across age groups in the Northern hemisphere, with pooled VE mostly decreasing with age. Point pooled VE against A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were statistically significantly higher when vaccine was antigenically similar to circulating virus strains compared with when antigenically dissimilar. Similar pattern was observed in the Northern hemisphere, but there was a lack of data from the Southern hemisphere.

CONCLUSION

Consistent patterns appear to exist in seasonal influenza VE across regions, age groups, and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, with best vaccine performance against A(H1N1)pdm09 and worst against A(H3N2). The evidence highlights the need to consider geographical location, age, and vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains when designing and evaluating influenza VE studies.

Interim estimates of 2019/20 vaccine effectiveness during early-season co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses, Canada, February 2020

Interim results from Canada's Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network show that during a season characterised by early co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses, the 2019/20 influenza vaccine has provided substantial protection against medically-attended influenza illness. Adjusted VE overall was 58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 47 to 66): 44% (95% CI: 26 to 58) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 62% (95% CI: 37 to 77) for A(H3N2) and 69% (95% CI: 57 to 77) for influenza B viruses, predominantly B/Victoria lineage.

The Effects of Imprinting and Repeated Seasonal Influenza Vaccination on Adaptive Immunity after Influenza Vaccination

(1) Background: The influenza virus continues to cause significant annual morbidity and mortality. The overall efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccination is suboptimal, which is partly due to host immune factors. The effects of imprinting and repeated seasonal influenza vaccination were investigated to assess for immune factors and mechanisms that impact influenza vaccine responses. (2) Methods: Twenty participants were enrolled into a prospective pilot study based on birth cohort and seasonal influenza immunization history. Immunologic parameters were assessed over a six-month period after the seasonal influenza vaccine was administered. (3) Results: There was no significant imprinting effect, as measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) fold change, HAI geometric mean titer (GMT) for Day 29 or Day 180 post-vaccination and antigen- specific antibody-secreting cells (ASC) for Day 8 post-vaccination. Individuals who had minimal prior seasonal influenza vaccination had a higher magnitude ASC response and a higher HAI fold change post-vaccination than individuals who were repeatedly vaccinated. (4) Conclusions: Repeated seasonal influenza vaccination resulted in a decreased fold change of the immune response, although individuals in this cohort tended to have high HAI titers at baseline that persisted after vaccination. Imprinting effects were not observed in this cohort. These host immune factors should be considered in the development of universal influenza vaccines. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03686514.

Impact of Immune Priming, Vaccination, and Infection on Influenza A(H3N2) Antibody Landscapes in Children

BACKGROUND

Preexisting antibodies to influenza, shaped by early infection and subsequent exposures, may impact responses to influenza vaccination.

METHODS

We enrolled 72 children (aged 7-17 years) in 2015-2016; all received inactivated influenza vaccines. Forty-one were also vaccinated in 2014-2015, with 12 becoming infected with A(H3N2) in 2014-2015. Thirty-one children did not have documented influenza exposures in the prior 5 seasons. Sera were collected pre- and postvaccination in both seasons. We constructed antibody landscapes using hemagglutination inhibition antibody titers against 16 A(H3N2) viruses representative of major antigenic clusters that circulated between 1968 and 2015.

RESULTS

The breadth of the antibody landscapes increased with age. Vaccine-induced antibody responses correlated with boosting of titers to previously encountered antigens. Postvaccination titers were the highest against vaccine antigens rather than the historic A(H3N2) viruses previously encountered. Prevaccination titers to the vaccine were the strongest predictors of postvaccination titers. Responses to vaccine antigens did not differ by likely priming virus. Influenza A(H3N2)-infected children in 2014-2015 had narrower antibody landscapes than those uninfected, but prior season infection status had little effect on antibody landscapes following 2015-2016 vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

A(H3N2) antibody landscapes in children were largely determined by age-related immune priming, rather than recent vaccination or infection.

Comparison of immunogenicity between candidate influenza A(H3N2) virus vaccine strains in Japan: A randomized controlled trial using a monovalent vaccine of A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) and A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263)

BACKGROUND

For the 2017-18 influenza season, A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) (Saitama strain) was antigenically more similar to prior circulating strains than A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263) (Hong Kong strain) in a ferret model and was selected as the A(H3N2) vaccine virus strain in Japan. However, the Saitama strain grew poorly, and the Japanese government switched to the Hong Kong strain, raising public concerns of poor effectiveness. To enhance understanding of the correlation between antigenicity in experimental models and immunogenicity, as a surrogate measure of vaccine effectiveness, in the human population, we compared the immunogenicity of specially-prepared single dose monovalent influenza A(H3N2) vaccines containing the Saitama or the Hong Kong strain.

METHODS

A randomized controlled trial of 100 healthy adults aged 20-64 years (n = 50/group) was conducted. Virus neutralization assay was performed on sera from days 0 (pre-vaccination) and 21 (post-vaccination). Geometric mean titer (GMT), mean fold rise (MFR), seroconversion proportion (SCP), and seroprotection proportion (SPP) were calculated for vaccine strains and a representative circulating A(H3N2) virus strain (A/Osaka/188/2017).

RESULTS

For the Hong Kong strain, post-vaccination GMT was significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients (1:546 vs 1:260, p < 0.01), but MFR, SCP, and SPP were similar for both vaccine groups. For the Saitama strain, post-vaccination GMT (1:116 vs 1:61, p = 0.01) and SPP (86% vs 68%, p = 0.03) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients, but MFR and SCP were similar for both vaccine groups. Against A/Osaka/188/2017, post-vaccination GMT and MFR were similar in both vaccine groups, but SCP (32% vs 4%, p < 0.01) and SPP (28% vs. 6%, p < 0.01) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients.

CONCLUSION

The Hong Kong vaccine induced better or equivalent immunogenicity in comparison to the Saitama vaccine. Our trial showed that antigenic similarity in experimental models does not necessarily correlate with immunogenicity in the human population.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN000029293.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalization in Fully and Partially Vaccinated Children in Israel: 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by season, circulating influenza strain, age, and geographic location. There have been few studies of influenza VE among hospitalized children, particularly in Europe and the Middle East.

METHODS

We estimated VE against influenza hospitalization among children aged 6 months to 8 years at Clalit Health Services hospitals in Israel in the 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018 influenza seasons, using the test-negative design. Estimates were computed for full and partial vaccination.

RESULTS

We included 326 influenza-positive case patients and 2821 influenza-negative controls (140 case patients and 971 controls from 2015-2016, 36 case patients and 1069 controls from 2016-2017, and 150 case patients and 781 controls from 2017-2018). Over all seasons, VE was 53.9% for full vaccination (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.6%-68.3%), and 25.6% for partial vaccination (-3% to 47%). In 2015-2016, most viruses were influenza A(H1N1) and vaccine lineage-mismatched influenza B/Victoria; the VE for fully vaccinated children was statistically significant for influenza A (80.7%; 95% CI, 40.3%-96.1%) but not B (23.0%; -38.5% to 59.4%). During 2016-2017, influenza A(H3N2) predominated, and VE was (70.8%; 95% CI, 17.4%-92.4%). In 2017-2018, influenza A(H3N2), H1N1 and lineage-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata cocirculated; VE was statistically significant for influenza B (63.0%; 95% CI, 24.2%-83.7%) but not influenza A (46.3%; -7.2% to 75.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccine was effective in preventing hospitalizations among fully vaccinated Israeli children over 3 influenza seasons, but not among partially vaccinated children. There was cross-lineage protection in a season where the vaccine contained B/Victoria and the circulating strain was B/Yamagata, but not in a season with the opposite vaccine-circulating strain distribution.

A comparison of epidemiology and clinical outcomes between influenza A H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 based on multicenter surveillance from 2014 to 2018 in South Korea

BACKGROUND

After pandemic, A(H1N1)pdm09 is generally known to be associated with younger adults' infection and greater severity than seasonal A(H3N2) but some inconsistences between recent studies exist.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) to verify and consolidate about the knowledge of known differences of subtypes.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected from the hospital-based influenza morbidity and mortality surveillance in South Korea in nine tertiary care hospitals, from August 31, 2014, to August 25, 2018. Patients with H1N1pdm09 or H3N2 infection admitted in the emergency room or ward were recruited.

RESULTS

A total of 1747 patients had influenza A and were divided into two groups those with A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 240) and those with A(H3N2) (n = 1507). A(H1N1)pdm09 group had younger age (mean age ± standard deviation 50.0 ± 18.8 in H1N1 vs 53.4 ± 21.1 in H3N2, P = .030), lower influenza vaccination (27.9% vs 43.9%, P < .001) and pneumococcal vaccination rates (41.0% vs 51.9%, P < .001), and fewer underlying diseases (67.5% vs 74.0%, P = .035) than the A(H3N2) group. Influenza A subtypes were not associated with pneumonia risk (adjusted odds ratios [AOR] of A(H1N1)pdm09: 0.7 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-1.2, P = .172]) and in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio (HR) of A(H1N1)pdm09: 1.0 (95% CI: 0.3-3.1, P = .983)). Influenza vaccination reduced in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients (HR: 0.3 (95% CI: 0.1-0.7), P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

A(H1N1)pdm09 infection was more common in younger patients without significant difference in pneumonia risk and in-hospital mortality between subtypes. Influenza vaccination was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality.

Interim estimates of 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, Canada, January 2019

Using a test-negative design, the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network assessed interim 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against predominant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Adjusted VE was 72% (95% confidence interval: 60 to 81) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 illness. This substantial vaccine protection was observed in all age groups, notably young children who appeared to be disproportionately affected. Sequence analysis identified heterogeneity in emerging clade 6B.1 viruses but no dominant drift variant.

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

Variations in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness due to Study Characteristics: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Test-Negative Design Studies

BACKGROUND

Study characteristics influence vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimation. We examined the influence of some of these on seasonal influenza VE estimates from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched bibliographic databases and websites for full-text publications of TND studies on VE against laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in outpatients after the 2009 pandemic influenza. We followed the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions guidelines. We examined influence of source of vaccination information, respiratory specimen swab time, and covariate adjustment on VE. We calculated pooled adjusted VE against H1N1 and H3N2 influenza subtypes, influenza B, and all influenza using an inverse-variance random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 70 full-text articles. Pooled VE against H1N1 and H3N2 influenza subtypes, influenza B, and all influenza was higher for studies that used self-reported vaccination than for those that used medical records. Pooled VE was higher with respiratory specimen collection within ≤7 days vs ≤4 days of symptom onset, but the opposite was observed for H1N1. Pooled VE was higher for studies that adjusted for age but not for medical conditions compared with those that adjusted for both. There was, however, a lack of statistical significance in almost all differences in pooled VE between compared groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence is not strong enough to conclude that influenza VE from TND studies varies by source of vaccination information, respiratory specimen swab time, or adjustment for age/medical conditions. The evidence is, however, indicative that these factors ought to be considered while designing or evaluating TND studies of influenza VE.

Children under 10 years of age were more affected by the 2018/19 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Canada: ‎possible cohort effect following the 2009 influenza pandemic

Introduction

Findings from the community-based Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN) suggest children were more affected by the 2018/19 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic.

Aim

To compare the age distribution of A(H1N1)pdm09 cases in 2018/19 to prior seasonal influenza epidemics in Canada.

Methods

The age distribution of unvaccinated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases and test-negative controls were compared across A(H1N1)pdm09-dominant epidemics in 2018/19, 2015/16 and 2013/14 and with the general population of SPSN provinces. Similar comparisons were undertaken for influenza A(H3N2)-dominant epidemics.

Results

In 2018/19, more influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases were under 10 years old than controls (29% vs 16%; p < 0.001). In particular, children aged 5–9 years comprised 14% of cases, greater than their contribution to controls (4%) or the general population (5%) and at least twice their contribution in 2015/16 (7%; p < 0.001) or 2013/14 (5%; p < 0.001). Conversely, children aged 10–19 years (11% of the population) were under-represented among A(H1N1)pdm09 cases versus controls in 2018/19 (7% vs 12%; p < 0.001), 2015/16 (7% vs 13%; p < 0.001) and 2013/14 (9% vs 12%; p = 0.12).

Conclusion

Children under 10 years old contributed more to outpatient A(H1N1)pdm09 medical visits in 2018/19 than prior seasonal epidemics in Canada. In 2018/19, all children under 10 years old were born after the 2009 A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and therefore lacked pandemic-induced immunity. In addition, more than half those born after 2009 now attend school (i.e. 5–9-year-olds), a socio-behavioural context that may enhance transmission and did not apply during prior A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemics.

Challenges of Making Effective Influenza Vaccines

Seasonal influenza vaccines prevent influenza-related illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, these vaccines are not as effective as other viral vaccines, and there is clearly room for improvement. Here, we review the history of seasonal influenza vaccines, describe challenges associated with producing influenza vaccine antigens, and discuss the inherent difficulties of updating influenza vaccine strains each influenza season. We argue that seasonal influenza vaccines can be dramatically improved by modernizing antigen production processes and developing models that are better at predicting viral evolution. Resources should be specifically dedicated to improving seasonal influenza vaccines while developing entirely new vaccine platforms.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness among outpatients in the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network by study site 2011-2016

Background

Influenza vaccination is recommended for all US residents aged ≥6 months. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by age, circulating influenza strains, and the presence of high‐risk medical conditions. We examined site‐specific VE in the US Influenza VE Network, which evaluates annual influenza VE at ambulatory clinics in geographically diverse sites.

Methods

Analyses were conducted on 27 180 outpatients ≥6 months old presenting with an acute respiratory infection (ARI) with cough of ≤7‐day duration during the 2011‐2016 influenza seasons. A test‐negative design was used with vaccination status defined as receipt of ≥1 dose of any influenza vaccine according to medical records, registries, and/or self‐report. Influenza infection was determined by reverse‐transcription polymerase chain reaction. VE estimates were calculated using odds ratios from multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, time from illness onset to enrollment, high‐risk conditions, calendar time, and vaccination status‐site interaction.

Results

For all sites combined, VE was statistically significant every season against all influenza and against the predominant circulating strains (VE = 19%‐50%) Few differences among four sites in the US Flu VE Network were evident in five seasons. However, in 2015‐16, overall VE in one site was 24% (95% CI = −4%‐44%), while VE in two other sites was significantly higher (61%, 95% CI = 49%‐71%; P = .002, and 53%, 95% CI = 33,67; P = .034).

Conclusion

With few exceptions, site‐specific VE estimates aligned with each other and overall VE estimates. Observed VE may reflect inherent differences in community characteristics of the sites and highlights the importance of diverse settings for studying influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Immune Imprinting in the Influenza Ferret Model

The initial exposure to influenza virus usually occurs during childhood. This imprinting has long-lasting effects on the immune responses to subsequent infections and vaccinations. Animal models that are used to investigate influenza pathogenesis and vaccination do recapitulate the pre-immune history in the human population. The establishment of influenza pre-immune ferret models is necessary for understanding infection and transmission and for designing efficacious vaccines.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness by A(H3N2) phylogenetic sub-cluster and prior vaccination history: 2016-17 and 2017-18 epidemics in Canada

Background

The influenza A(H3N2) vaccine was updated from clade 3C.3a in 2015–2016 to 3C.2a for 2016–2017 and 2017–2018. Circulating 3C.2a viruses showed considerable hemagglutinin glycoprotein diversification and the egg-adapted vaccine also bore mutations.

Methods

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 was assessed by test-negative design, explored by A(H3N2) phylogenetic subcluster and prior season’s vaccination history.

Results

In 2016–2017, A(H3N2) VE was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%–50%), comparable with (43%; 95% CI, 24%–58%) or without (33%; 95% CI, −21% to 62%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2017–2018, VE was 14% (95% CI, −8% to 31%), lower with (9%; 95% CI, −18% to 30%) versus without (45%; 95% CI, −7% to 71%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2016–2017, VE against predominant clade 3C.2a1 viruses was 33% (95% CI, 11%–50%): 18% (95% CI, −40% to 52%) for 3C.2a1a defined by a pivotal T135K loss of glycosylation; 60% (95% CI, 19%–81%) for 3C.2a1b (without T135K); and 31% (95% CI, 2%–51%) for other 3C.2a1 variants (with/without T135K). VE against 3C.2a2 viruses was 45% (95% CI, 2%–70%) in 2016–2017 but 15% (95% CI, −7% to 33%) in 2017–2018 when 3C.2a2 predominated. VE against 3C.2a1b in 2017–2018 was 37% (95% CI, −57% to 75%), lower at 12% (95% CI, −129% to 67%) for a new 3C.2a1b subcluster (n = 28) also bearing T135K.

Conclusions

Exploring VE by phylogenetic subcluster and prior vaccination history reveals informative heterogeneity. Pivotal mutations affecting glycosylation sites, and repeat vaccination using unchanged antigen, may reduce VE.

Heterogeneity of Circulating Influenza Viruses and Their Impact on Influenza Virus Vaccine Effectiveness During the Influenza Seasons 2016/17 to 2018/19 in Austria

The constantly changing pattern in the dominance of viral strains and their evolving subclades during the seasons substantially influences influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE). In order to further substantiate the importance of detailed data of genetic virus characterization for IVE estimates during the seasons, we performed influenza virus type and subtype specific IVE estimates. IVE estimates were assessed using a test-negative case-control design, in the context of the intraseasonal changes of the heterogeneous mix of circulating influenza virus strains for three influenza seasons (2016/17 to 2018/19) in Austria. Adjusted overall IVE over the three seasons 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2018/19 were -26, 39, and 63%, respectively. In accordance with the changing pattern of the circulating strains a broad range of overall and subtype specific IVEs was obtained: A(H3N2) specific IVE ranged between -26% for season 2016/17 to 58% in season 2018/19, A(H1N1)pdm09 specific IVE was 25% for the season 2017/18 and 65% for the season 2018/19 and Influenza B specific IVE for season 2017/18 was 45%. The results obtained in our study over the three seasons demonstrate the increasingly complex dynamic of the ever changing genetic pattern of the circulating influenza viruses and their influence on IVE estimates. This emphasizes the importance of detailed genetic virus surveillance for reliable IVE estimates.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization with laboratory-confirmed influenza in Greece: A pooled analysis across six seasons, 2013-2014 to 2018-2019

BACKGROUND

Monitoring seasonal influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) is key to inform vaccination strategies and sustain uptake. Pooling data across multiple seasons increases precision and allows for subgroup analyses, providing more conclusive evidence. Our aim was to assess VE against hospitalization with laboratory-confirmed influenza in Greece over six seasons, from 2013 to 2014 to 2018-2019, using routinely collected surveillance data.

METHODS

Swab samples from hospitalized patients across the country were tested for influenza by RT-PCR. We used the test-negative design, with patients testing positive for influenza serving as cases and those testing negative serving as controls. VE was calculated as one minus the Odds Ratio (OR) for influenza vaccination, estimated by mixed-effects logistic regression and adjusted for age, sex, hospitalization type (being in intensive care or not), time from symptom onset to swabbing, and calendar time. Stratified estimates by age and hospitalization type were obtained, and also subgroup estimates by influenza type/subtype and season. Antigenic and genetic characterization of a subset of circulating influenza strains was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 3,882 test-positive cases and 5,895 test-negative controls were analyzed. Across all seasons, adjusted VE was 45.5% (95% CI: 31.6-56.6) against all influenza, 62.8% against A(H1N1)pdm09 (95% CI: 40.7-76.7), 28.2% against A(H3N2) (95% CI: 12.0-41.3) and 45.5% against influenza B (95% CI: 29.1-58.1). VE was slightly lower for patients aged 60 years and over, and similar between patients hospitalized inside or outside intensive care. Circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 and B strains were antigenically similar to the vaccine strains, whereas A(H3N2) were not.

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm the public health benefits from seasonal influenza vaccination, despite the suboptimal effectiveness against A(H3N2) strains. Continued monitoring of VE is essential, and routinely collected surveillance data can be valuable in this regard.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Paradoxical clade- and age-specific vaccine effectiveness during the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic in Canada: potential imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV)

IntroductionThe Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic.AimTo explain a paradoxical signal of increased clade 3C.3a risk among 35-54-year-old vaccinees, we hypothesise childhood immunological imprinting and a cohort effect following the 1968 influenza A(H3N2) pandemic.MethodsWe assessed VE by test-negative design for influenza A(H3N2) overall and for co-circulating clades 3C.2a1b and 3C.3a. VE variation by age in 2018/19 was compared with amino acid variation in the haemagglutinin glycoprotein by year since 1968.ResultsInfluenza A(H3N2) VE was 17% (95% CI: -13 to 39) overall: 27% (95% CI: -7 to 50) for 3C.2a1b and -32% (95% CI: -119 to 21) for 3C.3a. Among 20-64-year-olds, VE was -7% (95% CI: -56 to 26): 6% (95% CI: -49 to 41) for 3C.2a1b and -96% (95% CI: -277 to -2) for 3C.3a. Clade 3C.3a VE showed a pronounced negative dip among 35-54-year-olds in whom the odds of medically attended illness were > 4-fold increased for vaccinated vs unvaccinated participants (p < 0.005). This age group was primed in childhood to influenza A(H3N2) viruses that for two decades following the 1968 pandemic bore a serine at haemagglutinin position 159, in common with contemporary 3C.3a viruses but mismatched to 3C.2a vaccine strains instead bearing tyrosine.DiscussionImprinting by the first childhood influenza infection is known to confer long-lasting immunity focused toward priming epitopes. Our findings suggest vaccine mismatch may negatively interact with imprinted immunity. The immunological mechanisms for imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV) warrant investigation.

Host Factors Impact Vaccine Efficacy: Implications for Seasonal and Universal Influenza Vaccine Programs

Influenza is a global public health problem. Current seasonal influenza vaccines have highly variable efficacy, and thus attempts to develop broadly protective universal influenza vaccines with durable protection are under way. While much attention is given to the virus-related factors contributing to inconsistent vaccine responses, host-associated factors are often neglected. Growing evidences suggest that host factors including age, biological sex, pregnancy, and immune history play important roles as modifiers of influenza virus vaccine efficacy. We hypothesize that host genetics, the hormonal milieu, and gut microbiota contribute to host-related differences in influenza virus vaccine efficacy. This review highlights the current insights and future perspectives into host-specific factors that impact influenza vaccine-induced immunity and protection. Consideration of the host factors that affect influenza vaccine-induced immunity might improve influenza vaccines by providing empirical evidence for optimizing or even personalizing vaccine type, dose, and use of adjuvants for current seasonal and future universal influenza vaccines.

Host Factors Impact Vaccine Efficacy: Implications for Seasonal and Universal Influenza Vaccine Programs

Influenza is a global public health problem. Current seasonal influenza vaccines have highly variable efficacy, and thus attempts to develop broadly protective universal influenza vaccines with durable protection are under way. While much attention is given to the virus-related factors contributing to inconsistent vaccine responses, host-associated factors are often neglected. Growing evidences suggest that host factors including age, biological sex, pregnancy, and immune history play important roles as modifiers of influenza virus vaccine efficacy. We hypothesize that host genetics, the hormonal milieu, and gut microbiota contribute to host-related differences in influenza virus vaccine efficacy. This review highlights the current insights and future perspectives into host-specific factors that impact influenza vaccine-induced immunity and protection. Consideration of the host factors that affect influenza vaccine-induced immunity might improve influenza vaccines by providing empirical evidence for optimizing or even personalizing vaccine type, dose, and use of adjuvants for current seasonal and future universal influenza vaccines.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccine against influenza A in Europe in seasons of different A(H1N1)pdm09 and the same A(H3N2) vaccine components (2016-17 and 2017-18)

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Influenza A(H3N2) circulated in Europe in 2016–17 and 2017–18 and A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2017–18.

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Changed A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component VE was 58% against A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2017–18.

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A(H3N2) VE was 13% and 28% among all ages in 2016–17 and 2017–18, respectively.

Introduction

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated in Europe in 2016–17. In 2017–18 A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated. The A(H3N2) vaccine component was the same in both seasons; while the A(H1N1)pdm09 component changed in 2017–18. In both seasons, vaccine seed A(H3N2) viruses developed adaptations/alterations during propagation in eggs, impacting antigenicity.

Methods

We used the test-negative design in a multicentre primary care case-control study in 12 European countries to measure 2016–17 and 2017–18 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) overall and by age group.

Results

During the 2017–18 season, the overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 59% (95% CI: 47–69). Among those aged 0–14, 15–64 and ≥65 years, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 64% (95% CI: 37–79), 50% (95% CI: 28–66) and 66% (95% CI: 42–80), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 28% (95% CI: 17–38) in 2016–17 and 13% (95% CI: −15 to 34) in 2017–18. Among 0–14-year-olds VE against A(H3N2) was 28% (95%CI: −10 to 53) and 29% (95% CI: −87 to 73), among 15–64-year-olds 34% (95% CI: 18–46) and 33% (95% CI: −3 to 56) and among those aged ≥65 years 15% (95% CI: −10 to 34) and −9% (95% CI: −74 to 32) in 2016–17 and 2017–18, respectively.

Conclusions

Our study suggests the new A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component conferred good protection against circulating strains, while VE against A(H3N2) was <35% in 2016–17 and 2017–18. The egg propagation derived antigenic mismatch of the vaccine seed virus with circulating strains may have contributed to this low effectiveness. A(H3N2) seed viruses for vaccines in subsequent seasons may be subject to the same adaptations; in years with lower than expected VE, recommendations of preventive measures other than vaccination should be given in a timely manner.

Influence of Immune Priming and Egg Adaptation in the Vaccine on Antibody Responses to Circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses After Influenza Vaccination in Adults

Background

Although ferret antisera used in influenza surveillance did not detect antigenic drift of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses during the 2015-2016 season, low vaccine effectiveness was reported in adults. We investigated the immune basis of low responses to circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses after vaccination.

Methods

Prevaccination and postvaccination serum samples collected from >300 adults (aged 18-49 years) in 6 seasons (2010-2011 to 2015-2016) were analyzed using hemagglutination inhibition assays to evaluate the antibody responses to 13 A(H1N1) viruses circulated from 1977 to 2016. Microneutralization and serum adsorption assays were used to verify the 163K and 223R specificity of antibodies.

Results

Individual antibody profiles to A(H1N1) viruses revealed 3 priming patterns: USSR/77, TW/86, or NC/99 priming. More than 20% of adults had reduced titers to cell-propagated circulating 6B.1 and 6B.2 A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses compared with the A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus X-179A. Significantly reduced antibody reactivity to circulating viruses bearing K163Q was observed only in the USSR/77-primed cohort, whereas significantly lower reactivity caused by egg-adapted Q223R change was detected across all 3 cohorts.

Conclusion

Both 163K specificity driven by immune priming and 223R specificity from egg-adapted changes in the vaccine contributed to low responses to circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses after vaccination. Our study highlights the need to incorporate human serology in influenza surveillance and vaccine strain selection.