Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century

Stress Memory in Seagrasses: First Insight Into the Effects of Thermal Priming and the Role of Epigenetic Modifications

While thermal priming and the relative role of epigenetic modifications have been widely studied in terrestrial plants, their roles remain unexplored in seagrasses so far. Here, we experimentally compared the ability of two different functional types of seagrass species, dominant in the Southern hemisphere, climax species Posidonia australis and pioneer species Zostera muelleri, to acquire thermal-stress memory to better survive successive stressful thermal events. To this end, a two-heatwave experimental design was conducted in a mesocosm setup. Findings across levels of biological organization including the molecular (gene expression), physiological (photosynthetic performances and pigments content) and organismal (growth) levels provided the first evidence of thermal priming in seagrasses. Non-preheated plants suffered a significant reduction in photosynthetic capacity, leaf growth and chlorophyll a content, while preheated plants were able to cope better with the recurrent stressful event. Gene expression results demonstrated significant regulation of methylation-related genes in response to thermal stress, suggesting that epigenetic modifications could play a central role in seagrass thermal stress memory. In addition, we revealed some interspecific differences in thermal responses between the two different functional types of seagrass species. These results provide the first insights into thermal priming and relative epigenetic modifications in seagrasses paving the way for more comprehensive forecasting and management of thermal stress in these marine foundation species in an era of rapid environmental change.

Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.

Impacts of combined temperature and salinity stress on the endemic Arctic brown seaweed Laminaria solidungula J. Agardh

Macroalgae such as kelp are important ecosystem engineers in the Polar Regions and potentially affected by freshening and ocean warming. The endemic Arctic kelp Laminaria solidungula might be particularly imperiled and become locally extinct from Arctic fjord systems in the future, since temperature increase is most pronounced in the Polar Regions. Additionally, increased temperatures cause glacier and sea ice melting and enhancing terrestrial run-off from snowfields, which eventually can result in hyposaline conditions in fjord systems. We conducted a multiple-stressor experiment at four temperatures (0, 5, 10, 15 °C) and two salinities (SA 25, 35) to investigate the combined effects of increasing temperature and decreasing salinities on the physiological and biochemical status of young L. solidungula sporophytes. Both drivers had significant and interacting impacts, either in an additive or antagonistic way, dependent on the respective response variable. The maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) significantly declined with temperature increase and low salinity. Even though the absolute pigment content was not affected, the deepoxydation state of the xanthophyll cycle increased with intensified stress. Higher temperatures affected the C:N ratio significantly, mainly due to reduced nitrogen uptake, while SA 25 supported the nitrogen uptake, resulting in an attenuation of the effect. The concentration of mannitol decreased at SA 25. At control SA 35 mannitol level remained steady between 0 and 10 °C but significantly decreased at 15 °C. Conclusively, our results show that L. solidungula is very susceptible to both drivers of climate change, especially when they are combined. Implications to species ecology are discussed.

Long-term decline in survival and reproduction of dolphins following a marine heatwave

One of many challenges in the conservation of biodiversity is the recent trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events [1]. The Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, endured an unprecedented marine heatwave in 2011. Catastrophic losses of habitat-forming seagrass meadows followed [2], along with mass mortalities of invertebrate and fish communities [3]. Our long-term demographic data on Shark Bay's resident Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population revealed a significant decline in female reproductive rates following the heatwave. Moreover, capture-recapture analyses indicated 5.9% and 12.2% post-heatwave declines in the survival of dolphins that use tools to forage and those that do not, respectively. This implies that the tool-using dolphins may have been somewhat buffered against the cascading effects of habitat loss following the heatwave by having access to a less severely affected foraging niche [4]. Overall, however, lower survival has persisted post-heatwave, suggesting that habitat loss following extreme weather events may have prolonged, negative impacts on even behaviourally flexible, higher-trophic level predators. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Can prior exposure to stress enhance resilience to ocean warming in two oyster species?

Securing economically and ecologically significant molluscs, as our oceans warm due to climate change, is a global priority. South eastern Australia receives warm water in a strengthening East Australia Current and so resident species are vulnerable to elevated temperature and marine heat waves. This study tested whether prior exposure to elevated temperature can enhance resilience of oysters to ocean warming. Two Australian species, the flat oyster, Ostrea angasi, and the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, were obtained as adults and "heat shocked" by exposure to a dose of warm water in the laboratory. Oysters were then transferred to elevated seawater temperature conditions where the thermal outfall from power generation was used as a proxy to investigate the impacts of ocean warming. Shell growth, condition index, lipid content and survival of flat oysters and condition of Sydney rock oysters were all significantly reduced by elevated seawater temperature in the field. Flat oysters grew faster than Sydney rock oysters at ambient temperature, but their growth and survival was more sensitive to elevated temperature. "Stress inoculation" by heat shock did little to ameliorate the negative effects of increased temperature, although the survival of heat-shocked flat oysters was greater than non-heat shocked oysters. Further investigations are required to determine if early exposure to heat stress can enhance resilience of oysters to ocean warming.

Marine Heatwave Drives Cryptic Loss of Genetic Diversity in Underwater Forests

Extreme events have profound ecological impacts on species and ecosystems, including range contractions and collapse of entire ecosystems. Although theory predicts that extreme events cause loss of genetic diversity, empirical demonstrations are rare, obscuring implications for future adaptive capacity of species and populations. Here, we use rare genetic data from before an extreme event to empirically demonstrate massive and cryptic loss of genetic diversity across ∼800 km of underwater forests following the most severe marine heatwave on record. Two forest-forming seaweeds (Sargassum fallax and Scytothalia dorycarpa) lost ∼30%-65% of average genetic diversity within the 800-km footprint of the heatwave and up to 100% of diversity at some sites. Populations became dominated by single haplotypes that were often not dominant or present prior to the heatwave. Strikingly, these impacts were cryptic and not reflected in measures of forest cover used to determine ecological impact of the heatwave. Our results show that marine heatwaves can drive strong loss of genetic diversity, which may compromise adaptability to future climatic change.

Impact of marine heat waves and cold spell events on the bivalve Anomalocardia flexuosa: A seasonal comparison

The effects of increasing or decreasing extreme temperatures on bivalves depend on their physiological and biochemical capacity to respond to changes in ambient temperature. We tested the response of the clam Anomalocardia flexuosa to simulated marine heat waves and cold spells, under summer and winter experimental conditions. We sought information about physiological and biochemical parameters, as well as survival rates during two bioassays of 43 days each. The winter cold spell simulations showed that extreme temperatures acted as a physiological and biochemical stimulus, linked to an increase in metabolic rates, and consequently higher maintenance costs, as acclimatory strategies. On the other hand, the summer heat wave extreme temperatures exceeded the individuals' thermal tolerance limits, resulting in an inability to acclimate and a high mortality. These experiments suggest that A. flexuosa can be considered as a sensitive indicator of heat wave events.

Kelp forests at the end of the earth: 45 years later

The kelp forests of southern South America are some of the least disturbed on the planet. The remoteness of this region has, until recently, spared it from many of the direct anthropogenic stressors that have negatively affected these ecosystems elsewhere. Re-surveys of 11 locations at the easternmost extent of Tierra del Fuego originally conducted in 1973 showed no significant differences in the densities of adult and juvenile Macrocystis pyrifera kelp or kelp holdfast diameter between the two survey periods. Additionally, sea urchin assemblage structure at the same sites were not significantly different between the two time periods, with the dominant species Loxechinus albus accounting for 66.3% of total sea urchin abundance in 2018 and 61.1% in 1973. Time series of Landsat imagery of the region from 1998 to 2018 showed no long-term trends in kelp canopy over the past 20 years. However, ~ 4-year oscillations in canopy fraction were observed and were strongly and negatively correlated with the NOAA Multivariate ENSO index and sea surface temperature. More extensive surveying in 2018 showed significant differences in benthic community structure between exposed and sheltered locations. Fish species endemic to the Magellanic Province accounted for 73% of all nearshore species observed and from 98-100% of the numerical abundance enumerated at sites. Fish assemblage structure varied significantly among locations and wave exposures. The recent creation of the Yaganes Marine Park is an important step in protecting this unique and biologically rich region; however, the nearshore waters of the region are currently not included in this protection. There is a general lack of information on changes in kelp forests over long time periods, making a global assessment difficult. A complete picture of how these ecosystems are responding to human pressures must also include remote locations and locations with little to no impact.

Species-specific molecular responses of wild coral reef fishes during a marine heatwave

The marine heatwave of 2016 was one of the longest and hottest thermal anomalies recorded on the Great Barrier Reef, influencing multiple species of marine ectotherms, including coral reef fishes. There is a gap in our understanding of what the physiological consequences of heatwaves in wild fish populations are. Thus, in this study, we used liver transcriptomes to understand the molecular response of five species to the 2016 heatwave conditions. Gene expression was species specific, yet we detected overlap in functional responses associated with thermal stress previously reported in experimental setups. The molecular response was also influenced by the duration of exposure to elevated temperatures. This study highlights the importance of considering the effects of extreme warming events when evaluating the consequences of climate change on fish communities.

Synchronous biological feedbacks in parrotfishes associated with pantropical coral bleaching

Biological feedbacks generated through patterns of disturbance are vital for sustaining ecosystem states. Recent ocean warming and thermal anomalies have caused pantropical episodes of coral bleaching, which has led to widespread coral mortality and a range of subsequent effects on coral reef communities. Although the response of many reef-associated fishes to major disturbance events on coral reefs is negative (e.g., reduced abundance and condition), parrotfishes show strong feedbacks after disturbance to living reef structure manifesting as increases in abundance. However, the mechanisms underlying this response are poorly understood. Using biochronological reconstructions of annual otolith (ear stone) growth from two ocean basins, we tested whether parrotfish growth was enhanced following bleaching-related coral mortality, thus providing an organismal mechanism for demographic changes in populations. Both major feeding guilds of parrotfishes (scrapers and excavators) exhibited enhanced growth of individuals after bleaching that was decoupled from expected thermal performance, a pattern that was not evident in other reef fish taxa from the same environment. These results provide evidence for a more nuanced ecological feedback system-one where disturbance plays a key role in mediating parrotfish-benthos interactions. By influencing the biology of assemblages, disturbance can thereby stimulate change in parrotfish grazing intensity and ultimately reef geomorphology over time. This feedback cycle operated historically at within-reef scales; however, our results demonstrate that the scale, magnitude, and severity of recent thermal events are entraining the biological responses of disparate communities to respond in synchrony. This may fundamentally alter feedbacks in the relationships between parrotfishes and reef systems.

Nitrogen sufficiency enhances thermal tolerance in habitat-forming kelp: implications for acclimation under thermal stress

Local and global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Macroalgae, especially habitat-forming species like kelp, play critical roles in temperate coastal ecosystems. However, their abundance and distribution patterns have been negatively affected by warming in many regions around the globe. Along with global change, coastal ecosystems are also impacted by local drivers such as eutrophication. The interaction between global and local drivers might modulate kelp responses to environmental change. This study examines the regulatory effect of NO₃⁻ on the thermal plasticity of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera. To do this, thermal performance curves (TPCs) of key temperature-dependant traits–growth, photosynthesis, NO₃⁻ assimilation and chlorophyll a fluorescence–were examined under nitrate replete and deplete conditions in a short-term incubation. We found that thermal plasticity was modulated by NO₃⁻ but different thermal responses were observed among traits. Our study reveals that nitrogen, a local driver, modulates kelp responses to high seawater temperatures, ameliorating the negative impacts on physiological performance (i.e. growth and photosynthesis). However, this effect might be species-specific and vary among biogeographic regions – thus, further work is needed to determine the generality of our findings to other key temperate macroalgae that are experiencing temperatures close to their thermal tolerance due to climate change.

The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability

Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.

Ocean acidification promotes broad transcriptomic responses in marine metazoans: a literature survey

For nearly a decade, the metazoan-focused research community has explored the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on marine animals, noting that changes in ocean chemistry can impact calcification, metabolism, acid-base regulation, stress response and behavior in organisms that hold high ecological and economic value. Because OA interacts with several key physiological processes in marine organisms, transcriptomics has become a widely-used method to characterize whole organism responses on a molecular level as well as inform mechanisms that explain changes in phenotypes observed in response to OA. In the past decade, there has been a notable rise in studies that examine transcriptomic responses to OA in marine metazoans, and here we attempt to summarize key findings across these studies. We find that organisms vary dramatically in their transcriptomic responses to pH although common patterns are often observed, including shifts in acid-base ion regulation, metabolic processes, calcification and stress response mechanisms. We also see a rise in transcriptomic studies examining organismal response to OA in a multi-stressor context, often reporting synergistic effects of OA and temperature. In addition, there is an increase in studies that use transcriptomics to examine the evolutionary potential of organisms to adapt to OA conditions in the future through population and transgenerational experiments. Overall, the literature reveals complex organismal responses to OA, in which some organisms will face more dramatic consequences than others. This will have wide-reaching impacts on ocean communities and ecosystems as a whole.

How do we overcome abrupt degradation of marine ecosystems and meet the challenge of heat waves and climate extremes?

Extreme heat wave events are now causing ecosystem degradation across marine ecosystems. The consequences of this heat-induced damage range from the rapid loss of habitat-forming organisms, through to a reduction in the services that ecosystems support, and ultimately to impacts on human health and society. How we tackle the sudden emergence of ecosystem-wide degradation has not yet been addressed in the context of marine heat waves. An examination of recent marine heat waves from around Australia points to the potential important role that respite or refuge from environmental extremes can play in enabling organismal survival. However, most ecological interventions are being devised with a target of mid to late-century implementation, at which time many of the ecosystems, that the interventions are targeted towards, will have already undergone repeated and widespread heat wave induced degradation. Here, our assessment of the merits of proposed ecological interventions, across a spectrum of approaches, to counter marine environmental extremes, reveals a lack preparedness to counter the effects of extreme conditions on marine ecosystems. The ecological influence of these extremes are projected to continue to impact marine ecosystems in the coming years, long before these interventions can be developed. Our assessment reveals that approaches which are technologically ready and likely to be socially acceptable are locally deployable only, whereas those which are scalable-for example to features as large as major reef systems-are not close to being testable, and are unlikely to obtain social licence for deployment. Knowledge of the environmental timescales for survival of extremes, via respite or refuge, inferred from field observations will help test such intervention tools. The growing frequency of extreme events such as marine heat waves increases the urgency to consider mitigation and intervention tools that support organismal and ecosystem survival in the immediate future, while global climate mitigation and/or intervention are formulated.

Intra-Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress: Implications for Populations at the Trailing Range Edge

Anthropogenic climate change is driving the redistribution of species at a global scale. For marine species, populations at trailing edges often live very close to their upper thermal limits and, as such, poleward range contractions are one of the most pervasive effects of ongoing and predicted warming. However, the mechanics of processes driving such contractions are poorly understood. Here, we examined the response of the habitat forming kelp, Laminaria digitata, to realistic terrestrial heatwave simulations akin to those experienced by intertidal populations persisting at the trailing range edge in the northeast Atlantic (SW England). We conducted experiments in both spring and autumn to determine temporal variability in the effects of heatwaves. In spring, heatwave scenarios caused minimal stress to L. digitata but in autumn all scenarios tested resulted in tissue being nonviable by the end of each assay. The effects of heatwave scenarios were only apparent after consecutive exposures, indicating erosion of resilience over time. Monthly field surveys corroborated experimental evidence as the prevalence of bleaching (an indication of physiological stress and tissue damage) in natural populations was greatest in autumn and early winter. Overall, our data showed that L. digitata populations in SW England persist close to their upper physiological limits for emersion stress in autumn. As the intensity of extreme warming events is likely to increase with anthropogenic climate change, thermal conditions experienced during periods of emersion will soon exceed physiological thresholds and will likely induce widespread mortality and consequent changes at the population level.

Response of foundation macrophytes to near-natural simulated marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves have been observed worldwide and are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity due to climate change. Such events may cause ecosystem reconfigurations arising from species range contraction or redistribution, with ecological, economic and social implications. Macrophytes such as the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and the seagrass Zostera marina are foundation species in many coastal ecosystems of the temperate northern hemisphere. Hence, their response to extreme events can potentially determine the fate of associated ecosystems. Macrophyte functioning is intimately linked to the maintenance of photosynthesis, growth and reproduction, and resistance against pathogens, epibionts and grazers. We investigated morphological, physiological, pathological and chemical defence responses of western Baltic Sea F. vesiculosus and Z. marina populations to simulated near-natural marine heatwaves. Along with (a) the control, which constituted no heatwave but natural stochastic temperature variability (0HW), two treatments were applied: (b) two late-spring heatwaves (June, July) followed by a summer heatwave (August; 3HW) and (c) a summer heatwave only (1HW). The 3HW treatment was applied to test whether preconditioning events can modulate the potential sensitivity to the summer heatwave. Despite the variety of responses measured in both species, only Z. marina growth was impaired by the accumulative heat stress imposed by the 3HW treatment. Photosynthetic rate, however, remained high after the last heatwave indicating potential for recovery. Only epibacterial abundance was significantly affected in F. vesiculosus. Hence both macrophytes, and in particular F. vesiculosus, seem to be fairly tolerant to short-term marine heatwaves at least at the intensities applied in this experiment (up to 5°C above mean temperature over a period of 9 days). This may partly be due to the fact that F. vesiculosus grows in a highly variable environment, and may have a high phenotypic plasticity.

Impacts of ocean warming on kelp forest ecosystems

Kelp forests represent some of the most diverse and productive habitats on Earth, and provide a range of ecosystem goods and services on which human populations depend. As the distribution and ecophysiology of kelp species is strongly influenced by temperature, recent warming trends in many regions have been linked with concurrent changes in kelp populations, communities and ecosystems. Over the past decade, the number of reports of ocean warming impacts on kelp forests has risen sharply. Here, I synthesise recent studies to highlight general patterns and trends. While kelp responses to climate change vary greatly between ocean basins, regions and species, there is compelling evidence to show that ocean warming poses an unequivocal threat to the persistence and integrity of kelp forest ecosystems in coming decades.

Adjusting Tropical Marine Water Quality Guideline Values for Elevated Ocean Temperatures

Increased frequency of summer heatwaves and poor water quality are two of the most prevalent and severe pressures faced by coral reefs. While these pressures often co-occur, their potential risks to tropical marine species are usually considered independently. Here, we extended the application of multisubstance-Potentially Affected Fraction (ms-PAF) to a nonchemical stressor, elevated sea surface temperature. We then applied this method to calculate climate-adjusted water quality guideline values (GVs) for two reference toxicants, copper and the herbicide diuron, for tropical marine species. First, we developed a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) for thermal stress based on published experimental data for 41 tropical benthic marine species using methods adapted from water quality GV derivation. This enabled quantitative predictions of community effects as temperatures exceeded acclimation values. The resulting protective temperature values (PTx) were similar to temperatures known to initiate coral bleaching and are therefore relevant for application in multistressor risk assessments. The extended ms-PAF method enabled the adjustment of current water quality GVs to account for thermal stress events. This approach could be applied to other ecosystems and other non-contaminant stressors (e.g., sediment, low salinity, anoxia, and ocean acidification), offering an alternative approach for deriving environmental GVs, reporting and assessing the risk posed by multiple stressors.

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.

The interaction between temperature and dose on the efficacy and biochemical response of Atlantic salmon to hydrogen peroxide treatment for amoebic gill disease

Hydrogen peroxide (H₂ O₂ ) is a commonly used treatment for a range of parasitic diseases of marine finfish, including amoebic gill disease (AGD). While this treatment is partially effective at reducing parasite load, H₂ O₂ can have detrimental effects on the host under certain conditions. Treatment temperature and dose concentration are two factors that are known to influence the toxicity of H₂ O₂ ; however, their impact on the outcome of AGD treatment remains unclear. Here, we investigated the effects of treatment temperature (8, 12 or 16°C) and dose concentration (750, 1,000, 1,250 mg/L) on the efficacy of H₂ O₂ to treat AGD. We demonstrated that a 20-min bath treatment of H₂ O₂ at all doses reduced both parasite load and gross gill score significantly. Parasite load and gross gill score were lowest in the 1,000 mg/L treatment performed at 12°C. At the high dose and temperature combinations, H₂ O₂ caused moderate gill damage and a significant increase in the plasma concentration of electrolytes (sodium, chloride and potassium). Taken together, our study demonstrates that higher H₂ O₂ treatment temperatures can adversely affect the host and do not improve the effectiveness of the treatment.

Ecological change in dynamic environments: Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change biology

The environmental conditions in the ocean have long been considered relatively more stable through time compared to the conditions on land. Advances in sensing technologies, however, are increasingly revealing substantial fluctuations in abiotic factors over ecologically and evolutionarily relevant timescales in the ocean, leading to a growing recognition of the dynamism of the marine environment as well as new questions about how this dynamism may influence species' vulnerability to global environmental change. In some instances, the diurnal or seasonal variability in major environmental change drivers, such as temperature, pH and seawater carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen, can exceed the changes expected with continued anthropogenic global change. While ocean global change biologists have begun to experimentally test how variability in environmental conditions mediates species' responses to changes in the mean, the extensive literature on species' adaptations to temporal variability in their environment and the implications of this variability for their evolutionary responses has not been well integrated into the field. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms underlying species' responses to changes in temperature, pCO₂ /pH (and other carbonate parameters), and dissolved oxygen, and discuss what is known about behavioral, plastic, and evolutionary strategies for dealing with variable environments. In addition, we discuss how exposure to variability may influence species' responses to changes in the mean conditions and highlight key research needs for ocean global change biology.

New Evidence of Mediterranean Climate Change and Variability from Sea Surface Temperature Observations

Estimating long-term modifications of the sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for evaluating the current state of the oceans and to correctly assess the impact of climate change at regional scales. In this work, we analyze SST variations within the Mediterranean Sea and the adjacent Northeastern Atlantic box (west of the Strait of Gibraltar) over the last 37 years, by using a satellite-based dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). We found a mean warming trend of 0.041 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year over the whole Mediterranean Sea from 1982 to 2018. The trend has an uneven spatial pattern, with values increasing from 0.036 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year in the western basin to 0.048 ± 0.006 ∘ C/year in the Levantine–Aegean basin. The Northeastern Atlantic box and the Mediterranean show a similar trend until the late 1990s. Afterwards, the Mediterranean SST continues to increase, whereas the Northeastern Atlantic box shows no significant trend, until ~2015. The observed change in the Mediterranean Sea affects not only the mean trend but also the amplitude of the Mediterranean seasonal signal, with consistent relative increase and decrease of summer and winter mean values, respectively, over the period considered. The analysis of SST changes occurred during the “satellite era” is further complemented by reconstructions also based on direct in situ SST measurements, i.e., the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), which go back to the 19th century. The analysis of these longer time series, covering the last 165 years, indicates that the increasing Mediterranean trend, observed during the CMEMS operational period, is consistent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as it closely follows the last increasing period of AMO. This coincidence occurs at least until 2007, when the apparent onset of the decreasing phase of AMO is not seen in the Mediterranean SST evolution.

Species-Specific Trait Responses of Three Tropical Seagrasses to Multiple Stressors: The Case of Increasing Temperature and Nutrient Enrichment

Seagrass meadows are declining globally. The decrease of seagrass area is influenced by the simultaneous occurrence of many factors at the local and global scale, including nutrient enrichment and climate change. This study aims to find out how increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment affect the morphological, biochemical and physiological responses of three coexisting tropical species, Thalassia hemprichii, Cymodocea serrulata and Halophila stipulacea. To achieve these aims, a 1-month experiment under laboratory conditions combining two temperature (maximum ambient temperature and current average temperature) and two nutrient (high and low N and P concentrations) treatments was conducted. The results showed that the seagrasses were differentially affected by all treatments depending on their life-history strategies. Under higher temperature treatments, C. serrulata showed photo-acclimation strategies, while T. hemprichii showed decreased photo-physiological performance. In contrast, T. hemprichii was resistant to nutrient over-enrichment, showing enhanced nutrient content and physiological changes, but C. serrulata suffered BG nutrient loss. The limited response of H. stipulacea to nutrient enrichment or high temperature suggests that this seagrass is a tolerant species that may have a dormancy state with lower photosynthetic performance and smaller-size individuals. Interaction between both factors was limited and generally showed antagonistic effects only on morphological and biochemical traits, but not on physiological traits. These results highlight the different effects and strategies co-inhabiting seagrasses have in response to environmental changes, showing winners and losers of a climate change scenario that may eventually cause biodiversity loss. Trait responses to these stressors could potentially make the seagrasses weaker to cope with following events, due to BG biomass or nutrient loss. This is of importance as biodiversity loss in tropical seagrass ecosystems could change the overall effectiveness of ecosystem functions and services provided by the seagrass meadows.

Organ health and development in larval kingfish are unaffected by ocean acidification and warming

Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are causing global ocean warming and ocean acidification. The early life stages of some marine fish are vulnerable to elevated ocean temperatures and CO₂ concentrations, with lowered survival and growth rates most frequently documented. Underlying these effects, damage to different organs has been found as a response to elevated CO₂ in larvae of several species of marine fish, yet the combined effects of acidification and warming on organ health are unknown. Yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi, a circumglobal subtropical pelagic fish of high commercial and recreational value, were reared from fertilization under control (21 °C) and elevated (25 °C) temperature conditions fully crossed with control (500 µatm) and elevated (1,000 µatm) pCO₂ conditions. Larvae were sampled at 11 days and 21 days post hatch for histological analysis of the eye, gills, gut, liver, pancreas, kidney and liver. Previous work found elevated temperature, but not elevated CO₂, significantly reduced larval kingfish survival while increasing growth and developmental rate. The current histological analysis aimed to determine whether there were additional sublethal effects on organ condition and development and whether underlying organ damage could be responsible for the documented effects of temperature on survivorship. While damage to different organs was found in a number of larvae, these effects were not related to temperature and/or CO₂ treatment. We conclude that kingfish larvae are generally vulnerable during organogenesis of the digestive system in their early development, but that this will not be exacerbated by near-future ocean warming and acidification.

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high-resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery-independent and -dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems-the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate-driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature-based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature-based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.

Marine heat wave and multiple stressors tip bull kelp forest to sea urchin barrens

Extreme climatic events have recently impacted marine ecosystems around the world, including foundation species such as corals and kelps. Here, we describe the rapid climate-driven catastrophic shift in 2014 from a previously robust kelp forest to unproductive large scale urchin barrens in northern California. Bull kelp canopy was reduced by >90% along more than 350 km of coastline. Twenty years of kelp ecosystem surveys reveal the timing and magnitude of events, including mass mortalities of sea stars (2013-), intense ocean warming (2014-2017), and sea urchin barrens (2015-). Multiple stressors led to the unprecedented and long-lasting decline of the kelp forest. Kelp deforestation triggered mass (80%) abalone mortality (2017) resulting in the closure in 2018 of the recreational abalone fishery worth an estimated $44 M and the collapse of the north coast commercial red sea urchin fishery (2015-) worth $3 M. Key questions remain such as the relative roles of ocean warming and sea star disease in the massive purple sea urchin population increase. Science and policy will need to partner to better understand drivers, build climate-resilient fisheries and kelp forest recovery strategies in order to restore essential kelp forest ecosystem services.

Resilience of a harvested gastropod, Turbo militaris, to marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHW) are predicted to occur with increased frequency, duration and intensity in a changing climate, with pervasive ecological and socioeconomic consequences. While there is a growing understanding of the ecological impacts of warming and marine heatwaves, much less is known about how they influence the underlying physiology and health of species, and the nutritional properties of tissue. We evaluated the effects of different heatwave scenarios and ocean warming on the nutritional properties and immune health of the harvested gastropod Turbo militaris. Neither heatwave scenarios nor elevated temperatures had significant impacts on morphometrics, proximate composition or inorganic content of T. militaris. However, an increased moisture content and non-significant trends, such as elevated amount of lipids, and an increased number of hemocytes in the blood of T. militaris in the heatwave treatments were suggestive of mild stress. Overall, our study suggests that T. militaris is resilient to marine heatwaves and warming, although delayed, additive or synergistic stress responses cannot be ruled out. Understanding the possible effects of ocean warming and heatwaves on fisheries species could improve management actions to avoid species impacts, socioeconomic losses and negative effects to ecosystem service provision in a changing climate.

The negative effects of short-term extreme thermal events on the seagrass Posidonia oceanica are exacerbated by ammonium additions

Global warming is increasingly affecting our biosphere. However, in addition to global warming, a panoply of local stressors caused by human activities is having a profound impact on our environment. The risk that these local stressors could modify the response of organisms to global warming has attracted interest and fostered research on their combined effect, especially with a view to identifying potential synergies. In coastal areas, where human activities are heavily concentrated, this scenario is particularly worrying, especially for foundation species such as seagrasses. In this study we explore these potential interactions in the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. This species is endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. It is well known that the Mediterranean is already experiencing the effects of global warming, especially in the form of heat waves, whose frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the coming decades. Moreover, this species is especially sensitive to stress and plays a key role as a foundation species. The aim of this work is thus to evaluate plant responses (in terms of photosynthetic efficiency and growth) to the combined effects of short-term temperature increases and ammonium additions.To achieve this, we conducted a mesocosm experiment in which plants were exposed to three thermal treatments (20°C, 30°C and 35°C) and three ammonium concentrations (ambient, 30 μM and 120 μM) in a full factorial experiment. We assessed plant performance by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence variables (maximum quantum yield (Fv/Fm), effective quantum yield of photosystem II (ΔF/Fm'), maximum electron transport rate (ETRmax) and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ)), shoot growth rate and leaf necrosis incidence. At ambient ammonium concentrations, P. oceanica tolerates short-term temperature increases up to 30°C. However, at 35°C, the plant loses functionality as indicated by a decrease in photosynthetic performance, an inhibition of plant growth and an increase of the necrosis incidence in leaves. On the other hand, ammonium additions at control temperatures showed only a minor effect on seagrass performance. However, the combined effects of warming and ammonium were much worse than those of each stressor in isolation, given that photosynthetic parameters and, above all, leaf growth were affected. This serves as a warning that the impact of global warming could be even worse than expected (based on temperature-only approaches) in environments that are already subject to eutrophication, especially in persistent seagrass species living in oligotrophic environments.

Stress-resistant corals may not acclimatize to ocean warming but maintain heat tolerance under cooler temperatures

Naturally heat-resistant coral populations hold significant potential for facilitating coral reef survival under rapid climate change. However, it remains poorly understood whether they can acclimatize to ocean warming when superimposed on their already thermally-extreme habitats. Furthermore, it is unknown whether they can maintain their heat tolerance upon larval dispersal or translocation to cooler reefs. We test this in a long-term mesocosm experiment using stress-resistant corals from thermally-extreme reefs in NW Australia. We show that these corals have a remarkable ability to maintain their heat tolerance and health despite acclimation to 3-6 °C cooler, more stable temperatures over 9 months. However, they are unable to increase their bleaching thresholds after 6-months acclimation to + 1 °C warming. This apparent rigidity in the thermal thresholds of even stress-resistant corals highlights the increasing vulnerability of corals to ocean warming, but provides a rationale for human-assisted migration to restore cooler, degraded reefs with corals from thermally-extreme reefs.

The Vulnerability of Microbial Ecosystems in A Changing Climate: Potential Impact in Shark Bay

The potential impact of climate change on eukaryotes, including humans, has been relatively well described. In contrast, the contribution and susceptibility of microorganisms to a changing climate have, until recently, received relatively less attention. In this review, the importance of microorganisms in the climate change discourse is highlighted. Microorganisms are responsible for approximately half of all primary production on earth, support all forms of macroscopic life whether directly or indirectly, and often persist in “extreme” environments where most other life are excluded. In short, microorganisms are the life support system of the biosphere and therefore must be included in decision making regarding climate change. Any effects climate change will have on microorganisms will inevitably impact higher eukaryotes and the activity of microbial communities in turn can contribute to or alleviate the severity of the changing climate. It is of vital importance that unique, fragile, microbial ecosystems are a focus of research efforts so that their resilience to extreme weather events and climate change are thoroughly understood and that conservation efforts can be implemented as a response. One such ecosystem under threat are the evolutionarily significant microbial mats and stromatolites, such as those present in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Climate change models have suggested the duration and severity of extreme weather events in this region will increase, along with rising temperatures, sea levels, and ocean acidification. These changes could upset the delicate balance that fosters the development of microbial mats and stromatolites in Shark Bay. Thus, the challenges facing Shark Bay microbial communities will be presented here as a specific case study.

Physiological response of the coralline alga Corallina officinalis L. to both predicted long-term increases in temperature and short-term heatwave events

Climate change is leading to an increase of mean sea surface temperatures and extreme heat events. There is an urgent need to better understand the capabilities of marine macroalgae to adapt to these rapid changes. In this study, the responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification to elevated temperature in a global warming scenario were investigated in the coralline alga Corallina officinalis. Algae were cultured for 7 weeks under 4 temperature treatments: (1) control under ambient-summer conditions (C, ~20 °C), (2) simulating a one-week heatwave of 1 °C (HW, T_control+1 °C), (3) elevated temperature (+3, T_control +3 °C), (4) combination of the two previous treatments (HW+3, T₊₃+1 °C). After exposure at T₊₃ (up to a T_max of ~23 °C), respiration and photosynthesis increased significantly. After 5 weeks, calcification rates were higher at elevated temperatures (T₊₃ and T_HW+3) compared to T_control, but at the end of the experiment (7 weeks) calcification decreased significantly at those temperatures beyond the thermal optimum (six-fold at T₊₃, and three-fold at T_HW+3, respectively). The same trend was noted for all the physiological processes, suggesting that a prolonged exposure to high temperatures (7 weeks up to T₊₃) negatively affect the physiology of C. officinalis, as a possible consequence of thermal stress. A one-week heatwave of +1 °C with respect to T_control (at T_HW) did not affect respiration, photosynthesis, or calcification rates. Conversely, a heatwave of 1 °C, when combined with the 3 °C increase predicted by the end of the century (at T_HW+3), induced a reduction of physiological rates. Continued increases in both the intensity and frequency of heatwaves under anthropogenic climate change may lead to reduced growth and survival of primary producers such as C. officinalis.

Developmental effects of heatwave conditions on the early life stages of a coral reef fish

Marine heatwaves, which are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity owing to climate change, are an imminent threat to marine ecosystems. On coral reefs, heatwave conditions often coincide with periods of peak recruitment of juvenile fishes and exposure to elevated temperature may affect their development. However, whether differences in the duration of high temperature exposure have effects on individual performance is unknown. We exposed juvenile spiny damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, to increasing lengths of time (3, 7, 30 and 108 days post-hatching) of elevated temperature (+2°C). After 108 days, we measured escape performance at present-day control and elevated temperatures, standard length, mass and critical thermal maximum. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that 30 days or more exposure to +2°C leads to improved escape performance, irrespective of performance temperature, possibly owing to developmental effects of high temperature on muscle development and/or anaerobic metabolism. Continued exposure to elevated temperature for 108 days caused a reduction in body size compared with the control, but not in fish exposed to high temperature for 30 days or less. By contrast, exposure to elevated temperatures for any length of time had no effect on critical thermal maximum, which, combined with previous work, suggests a short-term physiological constraint of ∼37°C in this species. Our study shows that extended exposure to increased temperature can affect the development of juvenile fishes, with potential immediate and future consequences for individual performance.

Exploitation may influence the climate resilience of fish populations through removing high performance metabolic phenotypes

Physiological rates and processes underpin the relationships between ectothermic organisms, such as fish, and their environment. The response and persistence of fish populations in an increasingly variable ocean is dependent on the distribution and diversity of physiological phenotypes. Growing evidence suggests that fisheries exploitation can selectively target certain physiological and behavioural phenotypes, which may shift exploited populations to altered physiological states. Here we test if commercial fisheries have the potential to do this in a “natural laboratory” along the South African coast. We compare metabolic traits of exploited and protected populations of the fish species, Chrysoblephus laticeps, which is a major component of the South African hook and line fishery. We find that high-performance aerobic scope phenotypes are reduced in the fished population. The most likely mechanism for this finding is a positive relationship between aerobic scope and capture vulnerability in passive-gear fisheries. Our results further highlight the selective nature of capture-fisheries and suggest that exploitation has the capacity to alter climate responses of fish populations on a physiological level. Our finding also implicates how Marine Protected Areas, through harbouring individuals with a greater diversity of physiological traits, may provide greater fish response diversity to environmental variability.

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: "geographic spawners" whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and "environmental spawners" whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. "Extreme events," defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Rhodolith primary and carbonate production in a changing ocean: The interplay of warming and nutrients

Rhodolith beds, like many other marine ecosystems, are affected by climate change that is causing an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme high temperature events (heat waves). Unfortunately, this does not represent the sole peril for these communities, as coastal urbanization in conjunction with altered precipitation patterns can increase terrestrial-derived nutrient input. In Brazil, rhodolith beds are among the most extensive coastal benthic ecosystems, but despite their vast distribution and great ecological and economic importance, studies on the productivity of these communities and the impact of changing environmental conditions are almost non-existent. This study addressed the individual and combined effects of increases in temperature and nutrient concentration on the physiological performance of two widely distributed rhodolith species, Lithothamnion crispatum and Melyvonnea erubescens. The results showed species-specific responses in net photosynthetic performance, with no response in L. crispatum, while M. erubescens responded negatively to both increase in temperature and nutrients. In contrast, calcification in both species showed a significant decline at high temperature. No interactive effects were found between temperature and nutrients, yet their combined negative effects were additive, resulting in negative daily-integrated net productivity and a large decline in daily carbonate production in both species. This has strong implications for rhodolith bed primary productivity and carbonate production, as heat waves may potentially cause a strong decline in carbonate production (ca. 50% loss), accompanied by a severe drop in primary productivity that will be even more pronounced under high-nutrient conditions. Also, the species-specific responses to changes in temperature and nutrient concentration suggest that the magnitude of impact of these factors on rhodolith bed productivity will depend on the species dominating the community and may finally result in changes in rhodolith community composition.

Marine heatwaves reveal coral reef zones susceptible to bleaching in the Red Sea

As the Earth's temperature continues to rise, coral bleaching events become more frequent. Some of the most affected reef ecosystems are located in poorly monitored waters, and thus, the extent of the damage is unknown. We propose the use of marine heatwaves (MHWs) as a new approach for detecting coral reef zones susceptible to bleaching, using the Red Sea as a model system. Red Sea corals are exceptionally heat-resistant, yet bleaching events have increased in frequency. By applying a strict definition of MHWs on >30 year satellite-derived sea surface temperature observations (1985-2015), we provide an atlas of MHW hotspots over the Red Sea coral reef zones, which includes all MHWs that caused major coral bleaching. We found that: (a) if tuned to a specific set of conditions, MHWs identify all areas where coral bleaching has previously been reported; (b) those conditions extended farther and occurred more often than bleaching was reported; and (c) an emergent pattern of extreme warming events is evident in the northern Red Sea (since 1998), a region until now thought to be a thermal refuge for corals. We argue that bleaching in the Red Sea may be vastly underrepresented. Additionally, although northern Red Sea corals exhibit remarkably high thermal resistance, the rapidly rising incidence of MHWs of high intensity indicates this region may not remain a thermal refuge much longer. As our regionally tuned MHW algorithm was capable of isolating all extreme warming events that have led to documented coral bleaching in the Red Sea, we propose that this approach could be used to reveal bleaching-prone regions in other data-limited tropical regions. It may thus prove a highly valuable tool for policymakers to optimize the sustainable management of coastal economic zones.

Transcriptional profiles of early stage red sea urchins (Mesocentrotus franciscanus) reveal differential regulation of gene expression across development

The red sea urchin, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, is an ecologically important kelp forest species that also serves as a valuable fisheries resource. In this study, we have assembled and annotated a developmental transcriptome for M. franciscanus that represents eggs and six stages of early development (8- to 16-cell, morula, hatched blastula, early gastrula, prism and early pluteus). Characterization of the transcriptome revealed distinct patterns of gene expression that corresponded to major developmental and morphological processes. In addition, the period during which maternally-controlled transcription was terminated and the zygotic genome was activated, the maternal-to-zygotic transition (MZT), was found to begin during early cleavage and persist through the hatched blastula stage, an observation that is similar to the timing of the MZT in other sea urchin species. The presented developmental transcriptome will serve as a useful resource for investigating, in both an ecological and fisheries context, how the early developmental stages of this species respond to environmental stressors.

A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies.

Impacts from marine heatwaves can be devastating, but understanding their causes is largely based on case studies. Here the authors carry out a global assessment of literature and sea surface temperatures to identify important local processes, climate modes and teleconnections that drive marine heatwaves regionally.

Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe

There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.

Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea

Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered. Almost three-quarters of the carcasses were unscavenged, a rate much higher than in baseline surveys (17%), suggesting ongoing deposition and elevated mortality around St Paul over a 2–3 month period. Based on the observation that carcasses were not observed on the neighboring island of St. George, we bounded the at-sea distribution of moribund birds, and estimated all species mortality at 3,150 to 8,800 birds. The event was particularly anomalous given the late fall/winter timing when low numbers of beached birds are typical. In addition, the predominance of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata, 79% of carcass finds) and Crested auklets (Aethia cristatella, 11% of carcass finds) was unusual, as these species are nearly absent from long-term baseline surveys. Collected specimens were severely emaciated, suggesting starvation as the ultimate cause of mortality. The majority (95%, N = 245) of Tufted puffins were adults regrowing flight feathers, indicating a potential contribution of molt stress. Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum

Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.