Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

The role of stress proteins in responses of a montane willow leaf beetle to environmental temperature variation

The heat shock response is a critical mechanism by which organisms buffer effects of variable and unpredictable environmental temperatures. Upregulation of heat shock proteins (Hsps) increases survival after exposure to stressful conditions in nature, although benefits of Hsp expression are often balanced by costs to growth and reproductive success. Hsp-assisted folding of variant polypeptides may prevent development of unfit phenotypes; thus, some differences in Hsp expression among natural populations of ectotherms may be due to interactions between enzyme variants (allozymes) and Hsps. In the Sierra willow leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis, which lives in highly variable thermal habitats at the southern edge of their range in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California, allele frequencies at the enzyme locus phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) vary across a climatic latitudinal gradient. PGI allozymes differ in kinetic properties,and expression of a 70 kDa Hsp differs between populations, along elevation gradients,and among PGI genotypes. Differences in Hsp70 expression among PGI genotypes correspond to differences in thermal tolerance and traits important for reproductive success, such as running speed, survival and fecundity. Thus, differential Hsp expression among genotypes may allow functionally important genetic variation to persist, allowing populations to respond effectively to environmental change.

Episodic death across species of desert shrubs

Extreme events shape population and community trajectories. We report episodic mortality across common species of thousands of long-lived perennials individually tagged and monitored for 20 years in the Colorado Desert of California following severe regional drought. Demographic records from 1984 to 2004 show 15 years of virtual stasis in populations of adult shrubs and cacti, punctuated by a 55-100% die-off of six of the seven most common perennial species. In this episode, adults that experienced reduced growth in a lesser drought during 1984-1989 failed to survive the drought of 2002. The significance of this event is potentially profound because population dynamics of long-lived plants can be far more strongly affected by deaths of adults, which in deserts potentially live for centuries, than by seedling births or deaths. Differential mortality and rates of recovery during and after extreme climatic events quite likely determine the species composition of plant and associated animal communities for at least decades. The die-off recorded in this closely monitored community provides a unique window into the mechanics of this process of species decline and replacement.

Regional climate modulates the canopy mosaic of favourable and risky microclimates for insects

1. One major gap in our ability to predict the impacts of climate change is a quantitative analysis of temperatures experienced by organisms under natural conditions. We developed a framework to describe and quantify the impacts of local climate on the mosaic of microclimates and physiological states of insects within tree canopies. This approach was applied to a leaf mining moth feeding on apple leaf tissues. 2. Canopy geometry was explicitly considered by mapping the 3D position and orientation of more than 26 000 leaves in an apple tree. Four published models for canopy radiation interception, energy budget of leaves and mines, body temperature and developmental rate of the leaf miner were integrated. Model predictions were compared with actual microclimate temperatures. The biophysical model accurately predicted temperature within mines at different positions within the tree crown. 3. Field temperature measurements indicated that leaf and mine temperature patterns differ according to the regional climatic conditions (cloudy or sunny) and depending on their location within the canopy. Mines in the sun can be warmer than those in the shade by several degrees and the heterogeneity of mine temperature was incremented by 120%, compared with that of leaf temperature. 4. The integrated model was used to explore the impact of both warm and exceptionally hot climatic conditions recorded during a heat wave on the microclimate heterogeneity at canopy scale. During warm conditions, larvae in sunlight-exposed mines experienced nearly optimal growth conditions compared with those within shaded mines. The developmental rate was increased by almost 50% in the sunny microhabitat compared with the shaded location. Larvae, however, experienced optimal temperatures for their development inside shaded mines during extreme climatic conditions, whereas larvae in exposed mines were overheating, leading to major risks of mortality. 5. Tree canopies act as both magnifiers and reducers of the climatic regime experienced in open air outside canopies. Favourable and risky spots within the canopy do change as a function of the climatic conditions at the regional scale. The shifting nature of the mosaic of suitable and risky habitats may explain the observed uniform distribution of leaf miners within tree canopies.

Density of near-extreme events

We provide a quantitative analysis of the phenomenon of crowding of near-extreme events by computing exactly the density of states (DOS) near the maximum of a set of independent and identically distributed random variables. We show that the mean DOS converges to three different limiting forms depending on whether the tail of the distribution of the random variables decays slower than pure exponential, faster than pure exponential, or as a pure exponential function. We argue that some of these results would remain valid even for certain correlated cases and verify it for power-law correlated stationary Gaussian sequences. Satisfactory agreement is found between the near-maximum crowding in the summer temperature reconstruction data of western Siberia and the theoretical prediction.

A perfect storm: the combined effects on population fluctuations of autocorrelated environmental noise, age structure, and density dependence

While it is widely appreciated that climate can affect the population dynamics of various species, a mechanistic understanding of how climate interacts with life-history traits to influence population fluctuations requires development. Here we build a general density-dependent age-structured model that accounts for differential responses in life-history traits to increasing population density. We show that as the temporal frequency of favorable environmental conditions increases, population fluctuations also increase provided that unfavorable environmental conditions still occur. As good years accumulate and the number of individuals in a population increases, successive life-history traits become vulnerable to density dependence once a return to unfavorable conditions prevails. The stronger this ratcheting of density dependence in life-history traits by autocorrelated climatic conditions, the larger the population fluctuations become. Highly fecund species, and those in which density dependence occurs in juvenile and adult vital rates at similar densities, are most sensitive to increases in the frequency of favorable conditions. Understanding the influence of global warming on temporal correlation in regional environmental conditions will be important in identifying those species liable to exhibit increased population fluctuations that could lead to their extinction.

Leaf gas exchange and water status responses of a native and non-native grass to precipitation across contrasting soil surfaces in the Sonoran Desert

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems of the southwestern US are undergoing changes in vegetation composition and are predicted to experience shifts in climate. To understand implications of these current and predicted changes, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment on the Santa Rita Experimental Range in southeastern Arizona. The objectives of our study were to determine how soil surface and seasonal timing of rainfall events mediate the dynamics of leaf-level photosynthesis and plant water status of a native and non-native grass species in response to precipitation pulse events. We followed a simulated precipitation event (pulse) that occurred prior to the onset of the North American monsoon (in June) and at the peak of the monsoon (in August) for 2002 and 2003. We measured responses of pre-dawn water potential, photosynthetic rate, and stomatal conductance of native (Heteropogon contortus) and non-native (Eragrostis lehmanniana) C(4) bunchgrasses on sandy and clay-rich soil surfaces. Soil surface did not always amplify differences in plant response to a pulse event. A June pulse event lead to an increase in plant water status and photosynthesis. Whereas the August pulse did not lead to an increase in plant water status and photosynthesis, due to favorable soil moisture conditions facilitating high plant performance during this period. E. lehmanniana did not demonstrate heightened photosynthetic performance over the native species in response to pulses across both soil surfaces. Overall accumulated leaf-level CO(2) response to a pulse event was dependent on antecedent soil moisture during the August pulse event, but not during the June pulse event. This work highlights the need to understand how desert species respond to pulse events across contrasting soil surfaces in water-limited systems that are predicted to experience changes in climate.

Extreme weather change and the dynamics of oviposition behavior in the pipevine swallowtail, Battus philenor

Prospects of global increases in extreme weather change provide incentive to examine how such change influences animal behavior, for example, behavior associated with resource use. In this study, we examined how oviposition behavior in a southern Arizona population of pipevine swallowtails (Battus philenor L.) responded to changes in their Aristolochia host resource and vegetative background caused by the North American monsoon system. Summer monsoon rains resulted in a flush of non-host vegetation and a more than doubling in rate of landings by host-searching females on non-host vegetation. Rates of discovery of the host species A. watsoni Woot. Standl. decreased by 50% after monsoon rains. Rains did not alter host density appreciably, but resulted in significant increases in host plant size and new growth, two indicators of host suitability for B. philenor larvae. After the rains, mean clutch size on individual host plants increased by a factor of 2.5; the mean proportion of host plants encountered on which a female laid eggs also increased significantly. Females were discriminating about the host plants on which they laid eggs after alightment; plants accepted for oviposition were larger, bore more new growth, and bore fewer larvae than rejected plants. Contrary to predictions from foraging theory, degree of discrimination did not change seasonally. Finally, the rate at which eggs were laid increased seasonally, suggesting that oviposition rates were limited more before monsoon rains by the relatively low quality of hosts than they were after the rains by the relatively low rate at which hosts were found. This latter result suggests that, while butterflies possess behavioral flexibility to respond to extreme weather change, such flexibility may have limits. In particular, expected increases in the severity and frequency of droughts may result in reduced oviposition rates, reductions that could have adverse demographic consequences.

Impact of extreme temperatures on parasitoids in a climate change perspective

Parasitoids depend on a series of adaptations to the ecology and physiology of their hosts and host plants for survival and are thus likely highly susceptible to changes in environmental conditions. We analyze the effects of global warming and extreme temperatures on the life-history traits of parasitoids and interactions with their hosts. Adaptations of parasitoids to low temperatures are similar to those of most ectotherms, but these adaptations are constrained by the responses of their hosts. Life-history traits are affected by cold exposure, and extreme temperatures can reduce endosymbiont populations inside a parasitoid, eventually eliminating populations of endosymbionts that are susceptible to high temperatures. In several cases, divergences between the thermal preferences of the host and those of the parasitoid lead to a disruption of the temporal or geographical synchronization, increasing the risk of host outbreaks. A careful analysis on how host-parasitoid systems react to changes in temperature is needed so that researchers may predict and manage the consequences of global change at the ecosystem level.

Phenology of forest caterpillars and their host trees: the importance of synchrony

For many leaf-feeding herbivores, synchrony in phenology with their host plant is crucial as development outside a narrow phenological time window has severe fitness consequences. In this review, we link mechanisms, adaptation, and population dynamics within a single conceptual framework, needed for a full understanding of the causes and consequences of this synchrony. The physiological mechanisms underlying herbivore and plant phenology are affected by environmental cues, such as photoperiod and temperature, although not necessarily in the same way. That these different mechanisms lead to synchrony, even if there is spatial and temporal variation in plant phenology, is a result of the strong natural selection acting on the mechanism underlying herbivore phenology. Synchrony has a major impact on the population densities of leaf-feeding Lepidoptera, and years with a high synchrony may lead to outbreaks. Global climate change leads to a disruption of the synchrony between herbivores and their host plants, which may have major impacts for population viability if natural selection is insufficient to restore synchrony.

Comparison of subjective symptoms and hot prevention measures in summer between traffic control workers and construction workers in Japan

In the present study, a survey on subjective symptoms and hot prevention measures in summer was conducted in 204 male traffic control workers and 115 male construction workers. Work loads of traffic control workers and construction workers were estimated at RMR 1-2 and RMR 2-4, respectively. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on age, occupational career, working habit, present or past history of diseases, individual preventive measures to the heat, and subjective symptoms in the summer. Daily working hours in the sunshine of the traffic control workers were significantly longer than those of the construction workers. Prevalence rates of changing clothes frequently, avoiding direct exposure of face and neck to sunlight using towel like materials, and wearing sunglasses in the traffic control workers were significantly lower than the construction workers. Prevalence rates of symptoms in the upper extremities in the traffic control workers were significantly lower than those in the construction workers. Prevalence of work difficulty due to hot weather during work in the traffic control workers was significantly lower than the construction workers. On the basis of the results obtained, some preventive countermeasures to improve working environment are presented.

Reproductive limits of a late-flowering high-mountain Mediterranean plant along an elevational climate gradient

Mountain plants are particularly sensitive to climate warming because snowmelt timing exerts a direct control on their reproduction. Current warming is leading to earlier snowmelt dates and longer snow-free periods. Our hypothesis is that high-mountain Mediterranean plants are not able to take advantage of a lengthened snow-free period because this leads to longer drought that truncates the growing season. However, reproductive timing may somewhat mitigate these negative effects through temporal shifts. We assessed the effects of flowering phenology on the reproductive success of Silene ciliata, a Mediterranean high-mountain plant, across an altitudinal gradient during two climatically contrasting years. The species showed a late-flowering pattern hampering the use of snowmelt water. Plant fitness was largely explained by the elapsed time from snowmelt to onset of flowering, suggesting a selective pressure towards early flowering caused by soil moisture depletion. The proportion of flowering plants decreased at the lowest population, especially in the drier year. Plants produced more flowers, fruits and seeds at the highest population and in the mild year. Our results indicate that water deficit in dry years could threaten the lowland populations of this mountainous species, while high-altitude environments are more stable over time.

Effects of an increase in summer precipitation on leaf, soil, and ecosystem fluxes of CO2 and H2O in a sotol grassland in Big Bend National Park, Texas

Global climate models predict that in the next century precipitation in desert regions of the USA will increase, which is anticipated to affect biosphere/atmosphere exchanges of both CO(2) and H(2)O. In a sotol grassland ecosystem in the Chihuahuan Desert at Big Bend National Park, we measured the response of leaf-level fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O 1 day before and up to 7 days after three supplemental precipitation pulses in the summer (June, July, and August 2004). In addition, the responses of leaf, soil, and ecosystem fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O to these precipitation pulses were also evaluated in September, 1 month after the final seasonal supplemental watering event. We found that plant carbon fixation responded positively to supplemental precipitation throughout the summer. Both shrubs and grasses in watered plots had increased rates of photosynthesis following pulses in June and July. In September, only grasses in watered plots had higher rates of photosynthesis than plants in the control plots. Soil respiration decreased in supplementally watered plots at the end of the summer. Due to these increased rates of photosynthesis in grasses and decreased rates of daytime soil respiration, watered ecosystems were a sink for carbon in September, assimilating on average 31 mmol CO(2) m(-2) s(-1) ground area day(-1). As a result of a 25% increase in summer precipitation, watered plots fixed eightfold more CO(2) during a 24-h period than control plots. In June and July, there were greater rates of transpiration for both grasses and shrubs in the watered plots. In September, similar rates of transpiration and soil water evaporation led to no observed treatment differences in ecosystem evapotranspiration, even though grasses transpired significantly more than shrubs. In summary, greater amounts of summer precipitation may lead to short-term increased carbon uptake by this sotol grassland ecosystem.

Drought effects on above- and belowground production of a grazed temperate grassland ecosystem

The effect of climatic variation on terrestrial aboveground productivity (ANPP) has been well studied. However, little is known about how variable climate, including drought, may influence belowground productivity (BNPP), which constitutes most of the annual primary production of grasslands. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine how a 3-year period of declining moisture, which began as climatically wet to average across Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and ended in drought, affected ANPP and BNPP in grasslands of YNP and (2) how herds of grazing ungulates, which were shown previously to stimulate grassland shoot and root growth in YNP, may have interacted with climatic conditions to influence grassland production. ANPP and 0-20 cm BNPP, representing the bulk of the root dynamics, were measured in grazed and ungrazed (fenced) grassland at nine sites ranging widely in elevation, soil conditions and plant production during the 3-year study. Results revealed that 0-20 cm BNPP was strongly influenced by drought (P = 0.0005) and declined from 1999 to 2001 among ungrazed and grazed grasslands by 39 and 49%, respectively. The greater reduction in 0-20 cm BNPP among grazed grasslands was due, in part, to a decline (P = 0.07) in the stimulatory effect of grazing, i.e., the ratio g BNPP stimulated: g shoot consumed. In contrast, ANPP was unaffected by drought in either type of grassland. Thus, the effect of this drought in YNP was a large reduction in BNPP, which was a function of (1) a direct negative influence of increased moisture stress on root growth and (2) a weak interaction between drought and herbivory that led to a decline in the positive feedback from grazers to BNPP. These findings highlight the need to better understand factors that control root growth and to study the effects of climatic variation on grasslands within an ecosystem framework to include potentially important climate-consumer interactions.

Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress

Human exposure to excessively warm weather, especially in cities, is an increasingly important public health problem. This study examined heat-related health inequalities within one city in order to understand the relationships between the microclimates of urban neighborhoods, population characteristics, thermal environments that regulate microclimates, and the resources people possess to cope with climatic conditions. A simulation model was used to estimate an outdoor human thermal comfort index (HTCI) as a function of local climate variables collected in 8 diverse city neighborhoods during the summer of 2003 in Phoenix, USA. HTCI is an indicator of heat stress, a condition that can cause illness and death. There were statistically significant differences in temperatures and HTCI between the neighborhoods during the entire summer, which increased during a heat wave period. Lower socioeconomic and ethnic minority groups were more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods with greater exposure to heat stress. High settlement density, sparse vegetation, and having no open space in the neighborhood were significantly correlated with higher temperatures and HTCI. People in warmer neighborhoods were more vulnerable to heat exposure because they had fewer social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. Urban heat island reduction policies should specifically target vulnerable residential areas and take into account equitable distribution and preservation of environmental resources.

Critical processes affecting Cryptosporidium oocyst survival in the environment

Cryptosporidium are parasitic protozoans that cause gastrointestinal disease and represent a significant risk to public health. Cryptosporidium oocysts are prevalent in surface waters as a result of human, livestock and native animal faecal contamination. The resistance of oocysts to the concentrations of chlorine and monochloramine used to disinfect potable water increases the risk of waterborne transmission via drinking water. In addition to being resistant to commonly used disinfectants, it is thought that oocysts can persist in the environment and be readily mobilized by precipitation events. This paper will review the critical processes involved in the inactivation or removal of oocysts in the terrestrial and aquatic environments and consider how these processes will respond in the context of climate change.

Effect of temperature on the development of Schistosoma japonicum within Oncomelania hupensis, and hibernation of O. hupensis

The objectives of this investigation were to assess the effect of temperature on the development of Schistosoma japonicum harboured in Oncomelania hupensis and to determine the lowest temperature threshold at which the hibernation of O. hupensis occurs. In the first experiment, adult infection-free O. hupensis, collected from Jiangsu province in eastern China, were infected with S. japonicum miracidia and raised at different temperatures under laboratory conditions. The development of miracidia until the release of cercariae was monitored employing the cercarial shedding method. In the second experiment, batches of O. hupensis were kept at temperatures below 13 degrees C with the temperature gradually reduced. Snail activity was assessed by a pin puncture method. We found a positive relationship between the development of S. japonicum within O. hupensis and temperature. In snails kept at 15.3 degrees C, S. japonicum arrested their development, while the fastest development occurred at 30 degrees C. The temperature at which half of the snails were in hibernation (ET(50)) was 6.4 degrees C. Our results underscore the pivotal role temperature plays on the biological activity of O. hupensis and the development of S. japonicum within the intermediate host. These findings are likely to have implications for the transmission of schistosomiasis in a warmer future China.

Temporal variance reverses the impact of high mean intensity of stress in climate change experiments

Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.

TEMPORAL VARIANCE REVERSES THE IMPACT OF HIGH MEAN INTENSITY OF STRESS IN CLIMATE CHANGE EXPERIMENTS

Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.

Climate change and human health impacts in the United States: an update on the results of the U.S. national assessment

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods) , air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure-response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

What the primary care pediatrician should know about syndromes associated with exposures to mycotoxins

Disease associated with exposure to mycotoxins is known as the "Great Masquerader" of the 21st century because of its complex natural history involving different tissues and resembling different diseases at each stage in its evolution. It can present with a variety of nonspecific clinical signs and symptoms such as rash, conjunctivitis, epistaxis, apnea, cough, wheezing, nausea, and vomiting. Some cases of vomiting illness, bone marrow failure, acute pulmonary hemorrhage, and recurrent apnea and/or "pneumonia" are associated with exposure to mycotoxins. Familiarity with the symptoms of exposure to the major classes of mycotoxins enables the clinician to ask pertinent questions about possible fungal exposures and to remove the infant or child from the source of exposure, which could be contaminated food(s), clothing and furniture, or the indoor air of the home. Failure to prevent recurrent exposure often results in recurrent illness. A variety of other conditions, including hepatocellular and esophageal cancer and neural tube defects, are associated with consumption of foods contaminated with mycotoxins. Awareness of the short- and long-term consequences of exposures to these natural toxins helps pediatricians to serve as better advocates for children and families.

Ecosystem carbon budgeting and soil carbon sequestration in reclaimed mine soil

Global warming risks from emissions of green house gases (GHGs) by anthropogenic activities, and possible mitigation strategies of terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration have increased the need for the identification of ecosystems with high C sink capacity. Depleted soil organic C (SOC) pools of reclaimed mine soil (RMS) ecosystems can be restored through conversion to an appropriate land use and adoption of recommended management practices (RMPs). The objectives of this paper are to (1) synthesize available information on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal mining and combustion activities, (2) understand mechanisms of SOC sequestration and its protection, (3) identify factors affecting C sequestration potential in RMSs, (4) review available methods for the estimation of ecosystem C budget (ECB), and (5) identify knowledge gaps to enhance C sink capacity of RMS ecosystems and prioritize research issues. The drastic perturbations of soil by mining activities can accentuate CO2 emission through mineralization, erosion, leaching, changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes, and reduction in biomass returned to the soil. The reclamation of drastically disturbed soils leads to improvement in soil quality and development of soil pedogenic processes accruing the benefit of SOC sequestration and additional income from trading SOC credits. The SOC sequestration potential in RMS depends on amount of biomass production and return to soil, and mechanisms of C protection. The rate of SOC sequestration ranges from 0.1 to 3.1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 0.7 to 4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) in grass and forest RMS ecosystem, respectively. Proper land restoration alone could off-set 16 Tg CO2 in the U.S. annually. However, the factors affecting C sequestration and protection in RMS leading to increase in microbial activity, nutrient availability, soil aggregation, C build up, and soil profile development must be better understood in order to formulate guidelines for development of an holistic approach to sustainable management of these ecosystems. The ECBs of RMS ecosystems are not well understood. An ecosystem method of evaluating ECB of RMS ecosystems is proposed.

Identification of a dehydration and ABA-responsive promoter regulon and isolation of corresponding DNA binding proteins for the group 4 LEA gene CpC2 from C. plantagineum

The resurrection plant Craterostigma plantagineum (Scrophulariaceae) is used as a model system to investigate the molecular and biochemical basis of desiccation tolerance. Genes which contribute to desiccation tolerance are expressed during dehydration of this plant. One of the dehydration-induced genes is CpC2, a group 4 LEA gene. The CpC2 promoter was analysed and a core promoter region (CPR) was identified which is critical for the responsiveness of the gene to dehydration and the plant hormone ABA. The CPR motif contains two ABA-response elements (ABRE) and a binding site for HDZIP transcription factors. A yeast one-hybrid screen was performed to isolate CPR binding proteins. This resulted in the isolation of a bZIP transcription factor (CpbZIP1) and three highly conserved CpHistone H3 proteins. Two of these CpHistone H3 proteins are constitutively expressed histone H3 variants which are suggested to be involved in gene regulation via histone modification. The CpbZIP1 belongs to the group S of bZIP genes which possess long 5'-UTRs with a putative regulatory function. A second very similar bZIP clone, CpbZIP2, was isolated which contains a conserved small upstream open reading frame (uORF) within the 5'-leader sequence. A possible regulatory role of the uORF is discussed.

Estimating the incidence of heat-related deaths among immigrants in Pima County, Arizona

Widespread media reports have described an increase in heat-related deaths among illegal immigrant border crossers in Southern Arizona in recent years. We conducted a retrospective case series review of heat-related deaths reported by a large border county medical examiner office in an attempt to estimate the occurrence and distribution of these deaths for the years 1998-2003. United States Border Patrol apprehension data were also collected and used in the analysis to estimate the size of the population of border crossers. An increase in the total heat-related deaths has occurred since 1999 in Pima County Arizona and has continued to date. Precise estimates of rates are not possible but appear to have increased as well. Implications for understanding the complexity of researching this public health issue including the definition of cases and population at risk are discussed.

Oral glutamine enhances heat shock protein expression and improves survival following hyperthermia

No pharmacologic agent has shown benefit in treating heatstroke. Previous data indicate that enhanced heat shock protein 70 (HSP-70) expression can improve survival postexperimental heatstroke. Glutamine (GLN) can enhance HSP-70 expression in other injury models. This study assessed if orally administered GLN could enhance tissue HSP expression and could improve survival following whole body hyperthermia. Intestinal permeability and plasma endotoxin were assayed to determine if enhanced HSP expression correlated with improved organ function. GLN (0.65 g/kg) or an iso-nitrogenous control (Travasol; T) was given to rats via gavage twice daily for 5 days pre-heatstroke. Hyperthermia was performed in anesthetized rats by heating animals to 42 degrees C (rectal temperature) for 30 min. HSP-70 analyzed via Western blot. Gut permeability was measured 6 and 24 h post-hyperthermia. Plasma endotoxin was measured 24 h post-hyperthermia. Survival was analyzed for 5 days post-hyperthermia. GLN administration enhanced gut and lung HSP-70 post-hyperthermia. GLN administration led to significantly enhanced gut heat shock factor 1 (HSF-1) activation before heatstroke and at 1 h postheat stress. GLN decreased gut permeability at 6 and 24 h post-hyperthermia versus T. Plasma endotoxin also decreased in GLN-treated rats 24 h post-hyperthermia. Oral GLN therapy significantly improved survival (P < 0.05). Our results indicate that oral GLN can enhance tissue HSP-70 and HSF-1 activation post-hyperthermia. These results also indicate that enhanced HSP-70 may have functional significance as GLN-treated animals had decreased gut permeability, plasma endotoxin, and improve survival following lethal hyperthermia. Enhanced expression of HSP-70 may be an important mechanism leading to enhanced survival via GLN. These data indicate that oral GLN may useful in prevention of mortality from heatstroke in at risk populations.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and climate change: A worst-case combination for arctic marine mammals and seabirds?

The effects of global change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning encompass multiple complex dynamic processes. Climate change and exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are currently regarded as two of the most serious anthropogenic threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. We should, therefore, be especially concerned about the possible effects of EDCs on the ability of Arctic marine mammals and seabirds to adapt to environmental alterations caused by climate change. Relationships between various organochlorine compounds, necessary such as polychlorinated biphenyls, dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, hexachlorobenzene, and oxychlordane, and hormones in Arctic mammals and seabirds imply that these chemicals pose a threat to endocrine systems of these animals. The most pronounced relationships have been reported with the thyroid hormone system, but effects are also seen in sex steroid hormones and cortisol. Even though behavioral and morphological effects of persistent organic pollutants are consistent with endocrine disruption, no direct evidence exists for such relationships. Because different endocrine systems are important for enabling animals to respond adequately to environmental stress, EDCs may interfere with adaptations to increased stress situations. Such interacting effects are likely related to adaptive responses regulated by the thyroid, sex steroid, and glucocorticosteroid systems.

Competition for pulsed resources: an experimental study of establishment and coexistence for an arid-land grass

In arid environments, episodically-pulsed resources are important components of annual water and nutrient supply for plants. This study set out to test whether seedlings have an increased capacity for using pulsed resources, which might then improve establishment when in competition with older individuals. A second aim was to determine whether there is a trade-off in competitive strategies when resources are supplied continuously at low concentrations, or as pulses with pronounced inter-pulse periods. A glasshouse experiment used a target-neighbour design of size-asymmetric competition, with juveniles of Panicum antidotale (blue panicgrass) introduced into contrasting densities of adult plants. Stable isotopes of nitrogen were used for measuring plant resource uptake from pulses, and tolerance to inter-pulse conditions was assessed as the mean residence time (MRT) of nitrogen. A higher root/shoot ratio and finer root system enhanced the capacity of juveniles to use resources when pulsed, rather than when continuously supplied. Higher resource uptake during pulses improved the establishment of juvenile Panicum in mixed cultures with older individuals. However, a trade-off was observed in plant strategies, with juveniles showing a lower MRT for nitrogen, which suggested reduced tolerance to resource deficit during inter-pulse periods. Under field conditions, higher utilization of pulsed resources would lead to the improved seedling establishment of Panicum adjacent to "nurse" plants, whereas mature plants with well-developed roots, exploiting a greater soil volume, maintain more constant resource uptake and retention during inter-pulse periods.

Climate change and human health: present and future risks

There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

Population effects of increased climate variation

Global circulation models predict and numerous observations confirm that anthropogenic climate change has altered high-frequency climate variability. However, it is not yet well understood how changing patterns of environmental variation will affect wildlife population dynamics and other ecological processes. Theory predicts that a population's long-run growth rate is diminished and the chance of population extinction is increased as environmental variation increases. This results from the fact that population growth is a multiplicative process and that long-run population growth rate is the geometric mean of growth rates over time, which is always less than the arithmetic mean. However, when population growth rates for unstructured populations are related nonlinearly to environmental drivers, increasing environmental variation can increase a population's long-run growth rate. This suggests that patterns of environmental variation associated with different aspects of climate change may affect population dynamics in different ways. Specifically, increasing variation in rainfall might result in diminished long-run growth rates for many animal species while increasing variation in temperature might result in increased long-run growth rates. While the effect of rainfall is theoretically well understood and supported by data, the hypothesized effect of temperature is not. Here, I analyse two datasets to study the effect of fluctuating temperatures on growth rates of zooplankton. Results are consistent with the prediction that fluctuating temperatures should increase long-run growth rates and the frequency of extreme demographic events.

Brain damage after heat stroke

Cerebellar syndromes and radiologic cerebellar atrophy after hyperpyrexia have occasionally been reported, mostly in neuroleptic malignant syndromes, but neuropathologic studies are extremely rare. We studied 3 patients (a 74-year-old woman, a 63-year-old man, and an 80-year-old man) who had heat stroke during heat waves in France. One patient had generalized seizures and died 28 hours after admission. The other patients survived one month and 2 months after admission; both had palatal myoclonus, and in one case, magnetic resonance imaging showed high signal intensity in the cerebral peduncles. The main neuropathology in the 3 cases was severe diffuse loss of Purkinje cells associated with heat shock protein 70 expression by Bergmann glia. In situ end labeling was negative in surviving Purkinje cells, suggesting that the mechanism of neuronal death was not apoptosis. Degeneration of Purkinje cells axons resulted in myelin pallor of the white matter of the folia and of the hilum of the dentate nuclei. DNA internucleosomal breakages were identified by in situ end labeling in the dentate nuclei and centromedian nuclei of the thalamus and were associated with degeneration of the cerebellar efferent pathways: superior cerebellar peduncles, decussation of the superior cerebellar peduncles (Wernekinck commissure), and dentatothalamic tract. These findings suggest that the mechanisms of neuronal death in the dentate nuclei and centromedian nuclei of the thalamus was different from that in Purkinje cells and more likely resulted from deafferentation. Ammon's horn and other areas susceptible to hypoxia were spared. These observations confirm the selective vulnerability of Purkinje cells to heat-induced injury and involvement of the cerebellar efferent pathways in palatal myoclonus.

Performance of High Arctic tundra plants improved during but deteriorated after exposure to a simulated extreme temperature event

Arctic ecosystems are known to be extremely vulnerable to climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios project extreme climate events to increase in frequency and severity, we exposed High Arctic tundra plots during 8 days in summer to a temperature rise of approximately 9°C, induced by infrared irradiation, followed by a recovery period. Increased plant growth rates during the heat wave, increased green cover at the end of the heat wave and higher chlorophyll concentrations of all four predominating species (Salix arctica Pall., Arctagrostis latifolia Griseb., Carex bigelowii Torr. ex Schwein and Polygonum viviparum L.) after the recovery period, indicated stimulation of vegetative growth. Improved plant performance during the heat wave was confirmed at plant level by higher leaf photochemical efficiency (F_v /F_m ) and at ecosystem level by increased gross canopy photosynthesis. However, in the aftermath of the temperature extreme, the heated plants were more stressed than the unheated plants, probably because they acclimated to warmer conditions and experienced the return to (low) ambient as stressful. We also calculated the impact of the heat wave on the carbon balance of this tundra ecosystem. Below- and aboveground respiration were stimulated by the instantaneous warmer soil and canopy, respectively, outweighing the increased gross photosynthesis. As a result, during the heat wave, the heated plots were a smaller sink compared with their unheated counterparts, whereas afterwards the balance was not affected. If other High Arctic tundra ecosystems react similarly, more frequent extreme temperature events in a future climate may shift this biome towards a source. It is uncertain, however, whether these short-term effects will hold when C exchange rates acclimate to higher average temperatures.