WHEN DO ADAPTIVE PLASTICITY AND GENETIC EVOLUTION PREVENT EXTINCTION OF A DENSITY-REGULATED POPULATION?

Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication

Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse.

Cryptic eco-evolutionary dynamics

Natural systems harbor complex interactions that are fundamental parts of ecology and evolution. These interactions challenge our inclinations and training to seek the simplest explanations of patterns in nature. Not least is the likelihood that some complex processes might be missed when their patterns look similar to predictions for simpler mechanisms. Along these lines, theory and empirical evidence increasingly suggest that environmental, ecological, phenotypic, and genetic processes can be tightly intertwined, resulting in complex and sometimes surprising eco-evolutionary dynamics. The goal of this review is to temper inclinations to unquestioningly seek the simplest explanations in ecology and evolution, by recognizing that some eco-evolutionary outcomes may appear very similar to purely ecological, purely evolutionary, or even null expectations, and thus be cryptic. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for observational biases and mechanisms that might operate among the various links in eco-evolutionary feedbacks to produce cryptic patterns. Recognition that cryptic dynamics can be associated with outcomes like stability, resilience, recovery, or coexistence in a dynamically changing world provides added impetus for finding ways to study them.

Plant responses to climatic extremes: within-species variation equals among-species variation

Within-species and among-species differences in growth responses to a changing climate have been well documented, yet the relative magnitude of within-species vs. among-species variation has remained largely unexplored. This missing comparison impedes our ability to make general predictions of biodiversity change and to project future species distributions using models. We present a direct comparison of among- versus within-species variation in response to three of the main stresses anticipated with climate change: drought, warming, and frost. Two earlier experiments had experimentally induced (i) summer drought and (ii) spring frost for four common European grass species and their ecotypes from across Europe. To supplement existing data, a third experiment was carried out, to compare variation among species from different functional groups to within-species variation. Here, we simulated (iii) winter warming plus frost for four grasses, two nonleguminous, and two leguminous forbs, in addition to eleven European ecotypes of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius. For each experiment, we measured: (i) C/N ratio and biomass, (ii) chlorophyll content and biomass, and (iii) plant greenness, root (15) N uptake, and live and dead tissue mass. Using coefficients of variation (CVs) for each experiment and response parameter, a total of 156 within- vs. among-species comparisons were conducted, comparing within-species variation in each of four species with among-species variation for each seed origin (five countries). Of the six significant differences, within-species CVs were higher than among-species CVs in four cases. Partitioning of variance within each treatment in two of the three experiments showed that within-species variability (ecotypes) could explain an additional 9% of response variation after accounting for the among-species variation. Our observation that within-species variation was generally as high as among-species variation emphasizes the importance of including both within- and among-species variability in ecological theory (e.g., the insurance hypothesis) and for practical applications (e.g., biodiversity conservation).

Project Baseline: An unprecedented resource to study plant evolution across space and time

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Project Baseline is a seed bank that offers an unprecedented opportunity to examine spatial and temporal dimensions of microevolution during an era of rapid environmental change. Over the upcoming 50 years, biologists will withdraw genetically representative samples of past populations from this time capsule of seeds and grow them contemporaneously with modern samples to detect any phenotypic and molecular evolution that has occurred during the intervening time.

METHODS

We carefully developed this living genome bank using protocols to enhance its experimental value by collecting from multiple populations and species across a broad geographical range in sites that are likely to be preserved into the future. Seeds are accessioned with site and population data and are stored by maternal line under conditions that maximize seed longevity. This open-access resource will be available to researchers at regular intervals to evaluate contemporary evolution.

KEY RESULTS

To date, the Project Baseline collection includes 100-200 maternal lines of each of 61 species collected from over 831 populations on sites that are likely to be preserved into the future across the United States (∼78,000 maternal lines). Our strategically designed collection circumvents some problems that can cloud the results of "resurrection" studies involving naturally preserved or existing seed collections that are available fortuitously.

CONCLUSIONS

The resurrection approach can be coupled with long-established and newer techniques over the next five decades to elucidate genetic change and thereby vastly improve our understanding of temporal and spatial changes in phenotype and the evolutionary processes underlying it.

Experimental adaptation to marine conditions by a freshwater alga

The marine-freshwater boundary has been suggested as one of the most difficult to cross for organisms. Salt is a major ecological factor and provides an unequalled range of ecological opportunity because marine habitats are much more extensive than freshwater habitats, and because salt strongly affects the structure of microbial communities. We exposed experimental populations of the freshwater alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii to steadily increasing concentrations of salt. About 98% of the lines went extinct. The ones that survived now thrive in growth medium with 36 g⋅L(-1) NaCl, and in seawater. Our results indicate that adaptation to marine conditions proceeded first through genetic assimilation of an inducible response to relatively low salt concentrations that was present in the ancestors, and subsequently by the evolution of an enhanced inducible response to high salt concentrations. These changes appear to have evolved through reversible and irreversible modifications, respectively. The evolution of marine from freshwater lineages is an example that clearly indicates the possibility of studying certain aspects of major ecological transitions in the laboratory.

The extended evolutionary synthesis: its structure, assumptions and predictions

Scientific activities take place within the structured sets of ideas and assumptions that define a field and its practices. The conceptual framework of evolutionary biology emerged with the Modern Synthesis in the early twentieth century and has since expanded into a highly successful research program to explore the processes of diversification and adaptation. Nonetheless, the ability of that framework satisfactorily to accommodate the rapid advances in developmental biology, genomics and ecology has been questioned. We review some of these arguments, focusing on literatures (evo-devo, developmental plasticity, inclusive inheritance and niche construction) whose implications for evolution can be interpreted in two ways—one that preserves the internal structure of contemporary evolutionary theory and one that points towards an alternative conceptual framework. The latter, which we label the 'extended evolutionary synthesis' (EES), retains the fundaments of evolutionary theory, but differs in its emphasis on the role of constructive processes in development and evolution, and reciprocal portrayals of causation. In the EES, developmental processes, operating through developmental bias, inclusive inheritance and niche construction, share responsibility for the direction and rate of evolution, the origin of character variation and organism-environment complementarity. We spell out the structure, core assumptions and novel predictions of the EES, and show how it can be deployed to stimulate and advance research in those fields that study or use evolutionary biology.

The ubiquity of phenotypic plasticity in plants: a synthesis

Adaptation to heterogeneous environments can occur via phenotypic plasticity, but how often this occurs is unknown. Reciprocal transplant studies provide a rich dataset to address this issue in plant populations because they allow for a determination of the prevalence of plastic versus canalized responses. From 31 reciprocal transplant studies, we quantified the frequency of five possible evolutionary patterns: (1) canalized response–no differentiation: no plasticity, the mean phenotypes of the populations are not different; (2) canalized response–population differentiation: no plasticity, the mean phenotypes of the populations are different; (3) perfect adaptive plasticity: plastic responses with similar reaction norms between populations; (4) adaptive plasticity: plastic responses with parallel, but not congruent reaction norms between populations; and (5) nonadaptive plasticity: plastic responses with differences in the slope of the reaction norms. The analysis included 362 records: 50.8% life-history traits, 43.6% morphological traits, and 5.5% physiological traits. Across all traits, 52% of the trait records were not plastic, and either showed no difference in means across sites (17%) or differed among sites (83%). Among the 48% of trait records that showed some sort of plasticity, 49.4% showed perfect adaptive plasticity, 19.5% adaptive plasticity, and 31% nonadaptive plasticity. These results suggest that canalized responses are more common than adaptive plasticity as an evolutionary response to environmental heterogeneity.

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity in colonizing species

I elaborate an hypothesis to explain inconsistent empirical findings comparing phenotypic plasticity in colonizing populations or species with plasticity from their native or ancestral range. Quantitative genetic theory on the evolution of plasticity reveals that colonization of a novel environment can cause a transient increase in plasticity: a rapid initial increase in plasticity accelerates evolution of a new optimal phenotype, followed by slow genetic assimilation of the new phenotype and reduction of plasticity. An association of colonization with increased plasticity depends on the difference in the optimal phenotype between ancestral and colonized environments, the difference in mean, variance and predictability of the environment, the cost of plasticity, and the time elapsed since colonization. The relative importance of these parameters depends on whether a phenotypic character develops by one-shot plasticity to a constant adult phenotype or by labile plasticity involving continuous and reversible development throughout adult life.

The evolution of thermal performance can constrain dispersal during range shifting

Organisms can cope with changing temperature under climate change by either adapting to the temperature at which they perform best and/or by dispersing to more benign locations. The evolution of a new thermal niche during range shifting is, however, expected to be strongly constrained by genetic load because spatial sorting is known to induce fast evolution of dispersal. To broaden our understanding of this interaction, we studied the joint evolution of dispersal and thermal performance curves (TPCs) of a population during range shifting by applying an individual-based spatially explicit model. Always, TPCs adapted to the local thermal conditions. Remarkably, this adaptation coincided with an evolution of dispersal at the shifting range front being equally high or lower than at the trailing edge. This optimal strategy reduces genetic load and highlights that evolutionary dynamics during range shifting change when crucial traits such as dispersal and thermal performance jointly evolve.

Cooperation between phenotypic plasticity and genetic mutations can account for the cumulative selection in evolution

We propose the cooperative model of phenotype-driven evolution, in which natural selection operates on a phenotype caused by both genetic and epigenetic factors. The conventional theory of evolutionary synthesis assumes that a phenotypic value (P) is the sum of genotypic value (G) and environmental deviation (E), P=G+E, where E is the fluctuations of the phenotype among individuals in the absence of environmental changes. In contrast, the cooperative model assumes that an evolution is triggered by an environmental change and individuals respond to the change by phenotypic plasticity (epigenetic changes). The phenotypic plasticity, while essentially qualitative, is denoted by a quantitative value F which is modeled as a normal random variable like E, but with a much larger variance. Thus, the fundamental equation of the cooperative model is given as P=G+F where F includes the effect of E. Computer simulations using a genetic algorithm demonstrated that the cooperative model realized much faster evolution than the evolutionary synthesis. This accelerated evolution was found to be due to the cumulative evolution made possible by a ratchet mechanism due to the epigenetic contribution to the phenotypic value. The cooperative model can well account for the phenomenon of genetic assimilation, which, in turn, suggests the mechanism of cumulative selection. The cooperative model may also serve as a theoretical basis to understand various ideas and phenomena of the phenotype-driven evolution such as genetic assimilation, the theory of facilitated phenotypic variation, and epigenetic inheritance over generations.

Plasticity-mediated persistence in new and changing environments

Baldwin's synthesis of the Organicist position, first published in 1896 and elaborated in 1902, sought to rescue environmentally induced phenotypes from disrepute by showing their Darwinian significance. Of particular interest to Baldwin was plasticity's mediating role during environmental change or colonization—plastic individuals were more likely to successfully survive and reproduce in new environments than were nonplastic individuals. Once a population of plastic individuals had become established, plasticity could further mediate the future course of evolution. The evidence for plasticity-mediated persistence (PMP) is reviewed here with a particular focus on evolutionary rescue experiments, studies on invasive success, and the role of learning in survival. Many PMP studies are methodologically limited, showing that preexistent plasticity has utility in new environments (soft PMP) rather than directly demonstrating that plasticity is responsible for persistence (hard PMP). An ideal PMP study would be able to demonstrate that (1) plasticity preexisted environmental change, (2) plasticity was fortuitously beneficial in the new environment, (3) plasticity was responsible for individual persistence in the new environment, and (4) plasticity was responsible for population persistence in succeeding generations. Although PMP is not ubiquitous, Baldwin's hypotheses have been largely vindicated in theoretical and empirical studies, but much work remains.

Testing for beneficial reversal of dominance during salinity shifts in the invasive copepod Eurytemora affinis, and implications for the maintenance of genetic variation

Maintenance of genetic variation at loci under selection has profound implications for adaptation under environmental change. In temporally and spatially varying habitats, non-neutral polymorphism could be maintained by heterozygote advantage across environments (marginal overdominance), which could be greatly increased by beneficial reversal of dominance across conditions. We tested for reversal of dominance and marginal overdominance in salinity tolerance in the saltwater-to-freshwater invading copepod Eurytemora affinis. We compared survival of F1 offspring generated by crossing saline and freshwater inbred lines (between-salinity F1 crosses) relative to within-salinity F1 crosses, across three salinities. We found evidence for both beneficial reversal of dominance and marginal overdominance in salinity tolerance. In support of reversal of dominance, survival of between-salinity F1 crosses was not different from that of freshwater F1 crosses under freshwater conditions and saltwater F1 crosses under saltwater conditions. In support of marginal overdominance, between-salinity F1 crosses exhibited significantly higher survival across salinities relative to both freshwater and saltwater F1 crosses. Our study provides a rare empirical example of complete beneficial reversal of dominance associated with environmental change. This mechanism might be crucial for maintaining genetic variation in salinity tolerance in E. affinis populations, allowing rapid adaptation to salinity changes during habitat invasions.

Embryonic developmental temperatures modulate thermal acclimation of performance curves in tadpoles of the frog Limnodynastes peronii

Performance curves of physiological rates are not fixed, and determining the extent to which thermal performance curves can change in response to environmental signals is essential to understand the effect of climate variability on populations. The aim of this study was to determine whether and how temperatures experienced during early embryonic development affect thermal performance curves of later life history stages in the frog Limnodynastes peronii. We tested the hypotheses that a) the embryonic environment affects mean trait values only; b) temperature at which performance of tadpoles is maximal shifts with egg incubation temperatures so that performance is maximised at the incubation temperatures, and c) incubation temperatures modulate the capacity for reversible acclimation in tadpoles. Growth rates were greater in warm (25°C) compared to cold (15°C) acclimated (6 weeks) tadpoles regardless of egg developmental temperatures (15°C or 25°C, representing seasonal means). The breadth of the performance curve of burst locomotor performance (measured at 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C, representing annual range) is greatest when egg developmental and acclimation temperatures coincide. The mode of the performance curves shifted with acclimation conditions and maximum performance was always at higher temperatures than acclimation conditions. Performance curves of glycolytic (lactate dehydrogenase activities) and mitochondrial (citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase) enzymes were modulated by interactions between egg incubation and acclimation temperatures. Lactate dehydrogenase activity paralleled patterns seen in burst locomotor performance, but oxygen consumption rates and mitochondrial enzyme activities did not mirror growth or locomotor performance. We show that embryonic developmental conditions can modulate performance curves of later life-history stages, thereby conferring flexibilty to respond to environmental conditions later in life.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity and environmental tolerance of a labile quantitative character in a fluctuating environment

Quantitative genetic models of evolution of phenotypic plasticity are used to derive environmental tolerance curves for a population in a changing environment, providing a theoretical foundation for integrating physiological and community ecology with evolutionary genetics of plasticity and norms of reaction. Plasticity is modelled for a labile quantitative character undergoing continuous reversible development and selection in a fluctuating environment. If there is no cost of plasticity, a labile character evolves expected plasticity equalling the slope of the optimal phenotype as a function of the environment. This contrasts with previous theory for plasticity influenced by the environment at a critical stage of early development determining a constant adult phenotype on which selection acts, for which the expected plasticity is reduced by the environmental predictability over the discrete time lag between development and selection. With a cost of plasticity in a labile character, the expected plasticity depends on the cost and on the environmental variance and predictability averaged over the continuous developmental time lag. Environmental tolerance curves derived from this model confirm traditional assumptions in physiological ecology and provide new insights. Tolerance curve width increases with larger environmental variance, but can only evolve within a limited range. The strength of the trade-off between tolerance curve height and width depends on the cost of plasticity. Asymmetric tolerance curves caused by male sterility at high temperature are illustrated. A simple condition is given for a large transient increase in plasticity and tolerance curve width following a sudden change in average environment.

The dynamics of niche evolution upon abrupt environmental change

Abrupt environmental changes are of particular interest to understand how species can quickly evolve at the boundary of their current niche. In particular the "sliding niche" model, wherein a niche shifts globally toward the new condition, has been used in understanding and modeling this process. Here, we investigate the dynamics of relative fitness change in four evolutionary replicates of Escherichia coli populations exposed to an extreme pH shift. We analyzed these changes at generations 500, 1000, and 2000 to determine whether niche global deformations fully capture the temporal dynamics of niche evolution. Strikingly, this analysis reveals that fitness variations can indeed be attributed to simple and global deformation of an underlying simple niche template. Analysis from two experimental replicates displays a transient increase in niche width, consistent with recent theory considering plasticity evolution in the context of an abrupt environmental change. We term this scenario the "sidestep niche model."

Phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic marking: an assessment of evidence for genetic accommodation

The relationship between genotype (which is inherited) and phenotype (the target of selection) is mediated by environmental inputs on gene expression, trait development, and phenotypic integration. Phenotypic plasticity or epigenetic modification might influence evolution in two general ways: (1) by stimulating evolutionary responses to environmental change via population persistence or by revealing cryptic genetic variation to selection, and (2) through the process of genetic accommodation, whereby natural selection acts to improve the form, regulation, and phenotypic integration of novel phenotypic variants. We provide an overview of models and mechanisms for how such evolutionary influences may be manifested both for plasticity and epigenetic marking. We point to promising avenues of research, identifying systems that can best be used to address the role of plasticity in evolution, as well as the need to apply our expanding knowledge of genetic and epigenetic mechanisms to our understanding of how genetic accommodation occurs in nature. Our review of a wide variety of studies finds widespread evidence for evolution by genetic accommodation.

The interaction between selection, demography and selfing and how it affects population viability

Population extinction due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations has only been considered to occur at small population sizes, large sexual populations being expected to efficiently purge these mutations. However, little is known about how the mutation load generated by segregating mutations affects population size and, eventually, population extinction. We propose a simple analytical model that takes into account both the demographic and genetic evolution of populations, linking population size, density dependence, the mutation load, and self-fertilisation. Analytical predictions were found to be relatively good predictors of population size and probability of population viability when verified using an explicit individual based stochastic model. We show that initially large populations do not always reach mutation-selection balance and can go extinct due to the accumulation of segregating deleterious mutations. Population survival depends not only on the relative fitness and demographic stochasticity, but also on the interaction between the two. When deleterious mutations are recessive, self-fertilisation affects viability non-monotonically and genomic cold-spots could favour the viability of outcrossing populations.

Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives

An increasing number of studies demonstrate phenotypic and genetic changes in natural populations that are subject to climate change, and there is hope that some of these changes will contribute to avoiding species extinctions ('evolutionary rescue'). Here, we review theoretical models of rapid evolution in quantitative traits that can shed light on the potential for adaptation to a changing climate. Our focus is on quantitative-genetic models with selection for a moving phenotypic optimum. We point out that there is no one-to-one relationship between the rate of adaptation and population survival, because the former depends on relative fitness and the latter on absolute fitness. Nevertheless, previous estimates that sustainable rates of genetically based change usually do not exceed 0.1 haldanes (i.e., phenotypic standard deviations per generation) are probably correct. Survival can be greatly facilitated by phenotypic plasticity, and heritable variation in plasticity can further speed up genetic evolution. Multivariate selection and genetic correlations are frequently assumed to constrain adaptation, but this is not necessarily the case and depends on the geometric relationship between the fitness landscape and the structure of genetic variation. Similar conclusions hold for adaptation to shifting spatial gradients. Recent models of adaptation in multispecies communities indicate that the potential for rapid evolution is strongly influenced by interspecific competition.

Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes

There are multiple observations around the globe showing that in many avian species, both the timing of migration and breeding have advanced, due to warmer springs. Here, we review the literature to disentangle the actions of evolutionary changes in response to selection induced by climate change versus changes due to individual plasticity, that is, the capacity of an individual to adjust its phenology to environmental variables. Within the abundant literature on climate change effects on bird phenology, only a small fraction of studies are based on individual data, yet individual data are required to quantify the relative importance of plastic versus evolutionary responses. While plasticity seems common and often adaptive, no study so far has provided direct evidence for an evolutionary response of bird phenology to current climate change. This assessment leads us to notice the alarming lack of tests for microevolutionary changes in bird phenology in response to climate change, in contrast with the abundant claims on this issue. In short, at present we cannot draw reliable conclusions on the processes underlying the observed patterns of advanced phenology in birds. Rapid improvements in techniques for gathering and analysing individual data offer exciting possibilities that should encourage research activity to fill this knowledge gap.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.

Evolution of discrete phenotypes from continuous norms of reaction

Discrete phenotypic variation often involves threshold expression of a trait with polygenic inheritance. How such discrete polyphenisms evolve starting from continuously varying phenotypes has received little theoretical attention. We model the evolution of sigmoid norms of reaction in response to variation in an underlying trait or in a continuous environment to identify conditions for the evolution of discontinuity. For traits with expression depending on a randomly varying underlying factor, such as developmental noise, polyphenism is unstable under constant phenotypic selection for two selective peaks, and reaction norm evolution results in a phenotypic distribution concentrated at only one peak. But with frequency-dependent selection between two adaptive peaks, a steep threshold maintaining polyphenism can evolve. For inducible plastic traits with expression conditioned on an environmental variable that also affects phenotypic selection, the steepness of the evolved reaction norm depends both on the differentiation of the environment in time or space and on its predictability between development and selection. Together with recent measurements of genetic variance of threshold steepness, these predictions suggest that quasi-discrete phenotypic variation may often evolve from continuous norms of reactions rather than being an intrinsic property of development.

Evolution of growth by genetic accommodation in Icelandic freshwater stickleback

Classical Darwinian adaptation to a change in environment can ensue when selection favours beneficial genetic variation. How plastic trait responses to new conditions affect this process depends on how plasticity reveals to selection the influence of genotype on phenotype. Genetic accommodation theory predicts that evolutionary rate may sharply increase when a new environment induces plastic responses and selects on sufficient genetic variation in those responses to produce an immediate evolutionary response, but natural examples are rare. In Iceland, marine threespine stickleback that have colonized freshwater habitats have evolved more rapid individual growth. Heritable variation in growth is greater for marine full-siblings reared at low versus high salinity, and genetic variation exists in plastic growth responses to low salinity. In fish from recently founded freshwater populations reared at low salinity, the plastic response was strongly correlated with growth. Plasticity and growth were not correlated in full-siblings reared at high salinity nor in marine fish at either salinity. In well-adapted lake populations, rapid growth evolved jointly with stronger plastic responses to low salinity and the persistence of strong plastic responses indicates that growth is not genetically assimilated. Thus, beneficial plastic growth responses to low salinity have both guided and evolved along with rapid growth as stickleback adapted to freshwater.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.

Adaptive evolution of a generalist parasitoid: implications for the effectiveness of biological control agents

The use of alternative hosts imposes divergent selection pressures on parasitoid populations. In response to selective pressures, these populations may follow different evolutionary trajectories. Divergent natural selection could promote local host adaptation in populations, translating into direct benefits for biological control, thereby increasing their effectiveness on the target host. Alternatively, adaptive phenotypic plasticity could be favored over local adaptation in temporal and spatially heterogeneous environments. We investigated the existence of local host adaptation in Aphidius ervi, an important biological control agent, by examining different traits related to infectivity (preference) and virulence (a proxy of parasitoid fitness) on different aphid-host species. The results showed significant differences in parasitoid infectivity on their natal host compared with the non-natal hosts. However, parasitoids showed a similar high fitness on both natal and non-natal hosts, thus supporting a lack of host adaptation in these introduced parasitoid populations. Our results highlight the role of phenotypic plasticity in fitness-related traits of parasitoids, enabling them to maximize fitness on alternative hosts. This could be used to increase the effectiveness of biological control. In addition, A. ervi females showed significant differences in infectivity and virulence across the tested host range, thus suggesting a possible host phylogeny effect for those traits.

Indirect effects of human-induced environmental change on offspring production mediated by behavioural responses

Human-induced rapid environmental changes often cause behavioural alterations in animals. The consequences that these alterations in turn have for the viability of populations are, however, poorly known. We used a population of threespine sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus in the Baltic Sea to investigate the consequences of behavioural responses to human-induced eutrophication for offspring production. The investigated population has been growing during the last decades, and one cause could be increased offspring production. We combined field-based surveys with laboratory-based experiments, and found that an enhanced growth of macroalgae relaxed agonistic interactions among males. This allowed more males to nest, improved hatching success, and increased the number of reproductive cycles that males completed. Thus, the behavioural responses were adaptive at the individual level and increased offspring production. However, a larger proportion of small males of low competitive ability reproduced in dense vegetation. As male size and dominance are heritable, this could influence the genetic composition of the offspring. Together with a higher number of offspring produced, this could influence natural selection and the rate of adaptation to the changing environment. Thus, behavioural responses to a rapid human-induced environmental change can influence offspring production, with potential consequences for population dynamics and evolutionary processes.

Developmental instability is genetically correlated with phenotypic plasticity, constraining heritability, and fitness

Although adaptive plasticity would seem always to be favored by selection, it occurs less often than expected. This lack of ubiquity suggests that there must be trade-offs, costs, or limitations associated with plasticity. Yet, few costs have been found. We explore one type of limitation, a correlation between plasticity and developmental instability, and use quantitative genetic theory to show why one should expect a genetic correlation. We test that hypothesis using the Landsberg erecta × Cape Verde Islands recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of Arabidopsis thaliana. RILs were grown at four different nitrogen (N) supply levels that span the range of N availabilities previously documented in North American field populations. We found a significant multivariate relationship between the cross-environment trait plasticity and the within-environment, within-RIL developmental instability across 13 traits. This genetic covariation between plasticity and developmental instability has two costs. First, theory predicts diminished fitness for highly plastic lines under stabilizing selection, because their developmental instability and variance around the optimum phenotype will be greater compared to nonplastic genotypes. Second, empirically the most plastic traits exhibited heritabilities reduced by 57% on average compared to nonplastic traits. This demonstration of potential costs in inclusive fitness and heritability provoke a rethinking of the evolutionary role of plasticity.

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change - evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

Evolutionary rescue: an emerging focus at the intersection between ecology and evolution

There is concern that the rate of environmental change is now exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt. Mitigation of biodiversity loss requires science that integrates both ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to rapid environmental change, and can identify the conditions that allow the recovery of declining populations. This special issue focuses on evolutionary rescue (ER), the idea that evolution might occur sufficiently fast to arrest population decline and allow population recovery before extinction ensues. ER emphasizes a shift to a perspective on evolutionary dynamics that focuses on short time-scales, genetic variants of large effects and absolute rather than relative fitness. The contributions in this issue reflect the state of field; the articles address the latest conceptual developments, and report novel theoretical and experimental results. The examples in this issue demonstrate that this burgeoning area of research can inform problems of direct practical concern, such as the conservation of biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and the emergence of infectious disease. The continued development of research on ER will be necessary if we are to understand the extent to which anthropogenic global change will reduce the Earth's biodiversity.

How competition affects evolutionary rescue

Populations facing novel environments can persist by adapting. In nature, the ability to adapt and persist will depend on interactions between coexisting individuals. Here we use an adaptive dynamic model to assess how the potential for evolutionary rescue is affected by intra- and interspecific competition. Intraspecific competition (negative density-dependence) lowers abundance, which decreases the supply rate of beneficial mutations, hindering evolutionary rescue. On the other hand, interspecific competition can aid evolutionary rescue when it speeds adaptation by increasing the strength of selection. Our results clarify this point and give an additional requirement: competition must increase selection pressure enough to overcome the negative effect of reduced abundance. We therefore expect evolutionary rescue to be most likely in communities which facilitate rapid niche displacement. Our model, which aligns to previous quantitative and population genetic models in the absence of competition, provides a first analysis of when competitors should help or hinder evolutionary rescue.

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause 'evolutionary suicide'. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called 'evolutionary trapping'. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.

Phenotypic plasticity in evolutionary rescue experiments

Population persistence in a new and stressful environment can be influenced by the plastic phenotypic responses of individuals to this environment, and by the genetic evolution of plasticity itself. This process has recently been investigated theoretically, but testing the quantitative predictions in the wild is challenging because (i) there are usually not enough population replicates to deal with the stochasticity of the evolutionary process, (ii) environmental conditions are not controlled, and (iii) measuring selection and the inheritance of traits affecting fitness is difficult in natural populations. As an alternative, predictions from theory can be tested in the laboratory with controlled experiments. To illustrate the feasibility of this approach, we briefly review the literature on the experimental evolution of plasticity, and on evolutionary rescue in the laboratory, paying particular attention to differences and similarities between microbes and multicellular eukaryotes. We then highlight a set of questions that could be addressed using this framework, which would enable testing the robustness of theoretical predictions, and provide new insights into areas that have received little theoretical attention to date.

Genetic constraints on adaptation to a changing environment

Genetic correlations between traits can constrain responses to natural selection. To what extent such correlations limit adaptation depends on patterns of directional selection. I derive the expected rate of adaptation (or evolvability) under randomly changing selection gradients. When directional selection gradients have an arbitrary covariance matrix, the average rate of adaptation depends on genetic correlations between traits, contrary to the isotropic case investigated in previous studies. Adaptation may be faster on average with more genetic correlation between traits, if these traits are selected to change jointly more often than the average pair of traits. However, natural selection maximizes the long-term fitness of a population, not necessarily its rate of adaptation. I therefore derive the average lag load caused by deviations of the mean phenotype from an optimum, under several forms of environmental changes typically experienced by natural populations, both stochastic and deterministic. Simple formulas are produced for how the G matrix affects long-term fitness in these contexts, and I discuss how their parameters can be estimated empirically.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.