A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.

Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions

In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate.

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous.

Intervarietal and intravarietal genetic structure in Douglas-fir: nuclear SSRs bring novel insights into past population demographic processes, phylogeography, and intervarietal hybridization

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) is one of numerous wide-range forest tree species represented by subspecies/varieties, which hybridize in contact zones. This study examined the genetic structure of this North American conifer and its two hybridizing varieties, coastal and Rocky Mountain, at intervarietal and intravarietal level. The genetic structure was subsequently associated with the Pleistocene refugial history, postglacial migration and intervarietal hybridization/introgression. Thirty-eight populations from the USA and Canada were genotyped for 13 nuclear SSRs and analyzed with simulations and traditional population genetic structuring methods. Eight genetic clusters were identified. The coastal clusters embodied five refugial populations originating from five distinct refugia. Four coastal refugial populations, three from California and one from western Canada, diverged during the Pleistocene (56.9–40.1 ka). The three Rocky Mountain clusters reflected distinct refugial populations of three glacial refugia. For Canada, ice covered during the Last Glacial Maximum, we present the following three findings. (1) One refugial population of each variety was revealed in the north of the distribution range. Additional research including paleodata is required to support and determine whether both northern populations originated from cryptic refugia situated south or north of the ice-covered area. (2) An interplay between intravarietal gene flow of different refugial populations and intervarietal gene flow by hybridization and introgression was identified. (3) The Canadian hybrid zone displayed predominantly introgressants of the Rocky Mountain into the coastal variety. This study provides new insights into the complex Quaternary dynamics of this conifer essential for understanding its evolution (outside and inside the native range), adaptation to future climates and for forest management.

Bring in the genes: genetic-ecophysiological modeling of the adaptive response of trees to environmental change. With application to the annual cycle

The observation of strong latitudinal clines in the date of bud burst of tree species indicate that populations of these species are genetically adapted to local environmental conditions. Existing phenological models rarely address this clinal variation, so that adaptive responses of tree populations to changes in environmental conditions are not taken into account, e.g., in models on species distributions that use phenological sub-models. This omission of simulating adaptive response in tree models may over- or underestimate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as the impacts of climate change on tree growth and productivity. Here, we present an approach to model the adaptive response of traits to environmental change based on an integrated process-based eco-physiological and quantitative genetic model of adaptive traits. Thus, the parameter values of phenological traits are expressed in genetic terms (allele effects and-frequencies, number of loci) for individual trees. These individual trees thereby differ in their ability to acquire resources, grow and reproduce as described by the process-based model, leading to differential survival. Differential survival is thus the consequence of both differences in parameters values and their genetic composition. By simulating recombination and dispersal of pollen, the genetic composition of the offspring will differ from that of their parents. Over time, the distribution of both trait values and the frequency of the underlying alleles in the population change as a consequence of changes in environmental drivers leading to adaptation of trees to local environmental conditions. This approach is applied to an individual-tree growth model that includes a phenological model on the annual cycle of trees whose parameters are allowed to adapt. An example of the adaptive response of the onset of the growing season across Europe is presented.

Prescriptive Evolution to Conserve and Manage Biodiversity

We are witnessing a global, but unplanned, evolutionary experiment with the biodiversity of the planet. Anthropogenic disturbances such as habitat degradation and climate change result in evolutionary mismatch between the environments to which species are adapted and those in which they now exist. The impacts of unmanaged evolution are pervasive, but approaches to address them have received little attention. We review the evolutionary challenges of managing populations in the Anthropocene and introduce the concept of prescriptive evolution, which considers how evolutionary processes may be leveraged to proactively promote wise management. We advocate the planned management of evolutionary processes and explore the advantages of evolutionary interventions to preserve and sustain biodiversity. We show how an evolutionary perspective to conserving biodiversity is fundamental to effective management. Finally, we advocate building frameworks for decision-making, monitoring, and implementation at the boundary between management and evolutionary science to enhance conservation outcomes.

Cross-species outlier detection reveals different evolutionary pressures between sister species

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) hybridize in western Canada, an area of recent mountain pine beetle range expansion. Given the heterogeneity of the environment, and indications of local adaptation, there are many unknowns regarding the response of these forests to future outbreaks. To better understand this we aim to identify genetic regions that have adaptive potential. We used data collected on 472 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci from 576 tree samples collected across 13 lodgepole pine-dominated sites and four jack pine-dominated sites. We looked at the relationship of genetic diversity with the environment, and we identified candidate loci using both frequency-based (arlequin and bayescan) and correlation-based (matsam and bayenv) methods. We found contrasting relationships between environmental variation and genetic diversity for the species. While we identified a number of candidate outliers (34 in lodgepole pine, 25 in jack pine, and 43 interspecific loci), we did not find any loci in common between lodgepole and jack pine. Many of the outlier loci identified were correlated with environmental variation. Using rigorous criteria we have been able to identify potential outlier SNPs. We have also found evidence of contrasting environmental adaptations between lodgepole and jack pine which could have implications for beetle spread risk.

Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians

Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species.

Individualist Biocentrism vs. Holism Revisited

While holist views such as ecocentrism have considerable intuitive appeal, arguing for the moral considerability of ecological wholes such as ecosystems has turned out to be a very difficult task. In the environmental ethics literature, individualist biocentrists have persuasively argued that individual organisms—but not ecological wholes—are properly regarded as having a good of their own . In this paper, I revisit those arguments and contend that they are fatally flawed. The paper proceeds in five parts. First, I consider some problems brought about by climate change for environmental conservation strategies and argue that these problems give us good pragmatic reasons to want a better account of the welfare of ecological wholes. Second, I describe the theoretical assumptions from normative ethics that form the background of the arguments against holism. Third, I review the arguments given by individualist biocentrists in favour of individualism over holism. Fourth, I review recent work in the philosophy of biology on the units of selection problem, work in medicine on the human biome, and work in evolutionary biology on epigenetics and endogenous viral elements. I show how these developments undermine both the individualist arguments described above as well as the distinction between individuals and wholes as it has been understood by individualists. Finally, I consider five possible theoretical responses to these problems.

Eighteen years of Antillean manatee Trichechus manatus manatus releases in Brazil: lessons learnt

The Antillean manatee Trichechus manatus manatus was once widespread from the south-eastern coast of Brazil to Central America and the Caribbean. In Brazil habitat destruction and overhunting severely reduced and fragmented the wild population, restricting extant subpopulations to the north and north-east coast. In response to these threats an ambitious government-led programme was initiated in 1994, with the aim of rehabilitating orphaned manatee calves and releasing them into the southernmost subpopulation. The programme is unique within Brazil, and has invested unprecedented resources in post-release monitoring. So far 30 manatees have been released at three sites, with a high rate of success (> 75%). Time in captivity appears to be a key variable determining post-release success: too long or too short a time in captivity decreasing the probability of survival. We describe the main features of this long-term programme and identify six key lessons learnt: (1) close monitoring, health assessments and rescues can significantly increase the success of releases, (2) combining different monitoring techniques results in high-quality data and reduces tracking costs, (3) long-term studies are needed to effectively evaluate the results, (4) releasing manatees at c. 5 years of age can increase chances of success, (5) soft-release is important to aid acclimatization, and (6) the programme has been effective in raising awareness among the general public, supporting education and fund-raising.

Reversing defaunation: restoring species in a changing world

The rate of biodiversity loss is not slowing despite global commitments, and the depletion of animal species can reduce the stability of ecological communities. Despite this continued loss, some substantial progress in reversing defaunation is being achieved through the intentional movement of animals to restore populations. We review the full spectrum of conservation translocations, from reinforcement and reintroduction to controversial conservation introductions that seek to restore populations outside their indigenous range or to introduce ecological replacements for extinct forms. We place the popular, but misunderstood, concept of rewilding within this framework and consider the future role of new technical developments such as de-extinction.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored.

Evaluating the thermal effects of translocation in a large-bodied pitviper

Acute stressors can be costly, often requiring alteration of normal physiological processes to mitigate their effects. Animal translocation may be a very stressful event and result in a reduced ability to maintain homeostasis. The impacts of translocation on the thermal ecology of ectothermic vertebrates, which may rely on preferred habitats for thermoregulation, are currently unknown. In this study, 22 adult male Northern Pacific rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus oreganus) were implanted with automated temperature loggers and radio-tracked. Snakes were assigned to one of three treatments: translocation, handling control, and undisturbed control. Short-distance translocation (SDT) and handling treatments were applied weekly for 6 weeks. Hourly body temperature (Tb ) was recorded during the course of the study. Mean Tb was impacted in a time-dependent fashion, where translocated snakes had lower mean Tb than handled controls during the first week of the study only, especially the first 24 hr after translocation. Separating the dataset into day and night revealed that this effect was localized to Tb variation during the day only. Variance in temperature was not impacted by translocation or handling. Snake body mass and time of year were the major factors influencing the thermal profiles of these rattlesnakes. Thermal ecology in male rattlesnakes is resilient to SDT, suggesting that they quickly resume normal behaviors following repeated bouts of acute capture stress and disturbance of their spatial ecology. This study provides support for SDT as a safe measure for mitigating human-snake interactions and facilitating conservation practices regarding male snakes, which are the most frequently encountered sex.

Agreed but not preferred: expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change

Recent research indicates increasing openness among conservation experts toward a set of previously controversial proposals for biodiversity protection. These include actions such as assisted migration, and the application of climate-change-informed triage principles for decision-making (e.g., forgoing attention to target species deemed no longer viable). Little is known however, about the levels of expert agreement across different conservation adaptation actions, or the preferences that may come to shape policy recommendations. In this paper, we report findings from a web-based survey of biodiversity experts that assessed: (1) perceived risks of climate change (and other drivers) to biodiversity, (2) relative importance of different conservation goals, (3) levels of agreement/disagreement with the potential necessity of unconventional-taboo actions and approaches including affective evaluations of these, (4) preferences regarding the most important adaptation action for biodiversity, and (5) perceived barriers and strategic considerations regarding implementing adaptation initiatives. We found widespread agreement with a set of previously contentious approaches and actions, including the need for frameworks for prioritization and decision-making that take expected losses and emerging novel ecosystems into consideration. Simultaneously, this survey found enduring preferences for conventional actions (such as protected areas) as the most important policy action, and negative affective responses toward more interventionist proposals. We argue that expert views are converging on agreement across a set of taboo components in ways that differ from earlier published positions, and that these views are tempered by preferences for existing conventional actions and discomfort toward interventionist options. We discuss these findings in the context of anticipating some of the likely contours of future conservation debates. Lastly, we underscore the critical need for interdisciplinary, comparative, place-based adaptation research.

Environmental philosophy 2.0: ethics and conservation biology for the 21st century

In this essay, I critically engage Sahotra Sarkar's Environmental Philosophy. The several topics include the conceptual foundations of conservation biology and traditional philosophy of science, naturalism and its implications, and ethical theory and specifically the status of human welfare.

Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses

Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.

Impacts of predicted climate change on recruitment at the geographical limits of Scots pine

Ongoing changes in global climate are having a significant impact on the distribution of plant species, with effects particularly evident at range limits. We assessed the capacity of Pinus sylvestris L. populations at northernmost and southernmost limits of the distribution to cope with projected changes in climate. We investigated responses including seed germination and early seedling growth and survival, using seeds from northernmost (Kevo, Finland) and southernmost (Granada, Spain) populations. Seeds were grown under current climate conditions in each area and under temperatures increased by 5 °C, with changes in precipitation of +30% or -30% with reference to current values at northern and southern limits, respectively, in a fully factorial controlled-conditions experimental design. Increased temperatures reduced germination time and enhanced biomass gain at both range edges but reduced survival at the southern range edge. Higher precipitation also increased survival and biomass but only under a southern climate. Seeds from the southern origin emerged faster, produced bigger seedlings, allocated higher biomass to roots, and survived better than northern ones. These results indicate that recruitment will be reduced at the southernmost range of the species, whereas it will be enhanced at the northern limit, and that the southern seed sources are better adapted to survive under drier conditions. However, future climate will impose a trade-off between seedling growth and survival probabilities. At the southern range edge, higher growth may render individuals more susceptible to mortality where greater aboveground biomass results in greater water loss through evapotranspiration.

Old wine, new bottles? Using history to inform the assisted colonization debate

Assisted colonization, or the translocation of species threatened with extinction to habitats outside their indigenous range (usually as a response to predicted climate shifts), is a divisive issue for conservationists. Yet, history shows that wildlife scientists were discussing the trade-offs and challenges of translocating species for conservation purposes, including introducing them to new habitats, long before anthropogenic climate change was recognized as posing a conservation problem. Here we examine a case of the scientific and policy deliberations of a high profile group of scientists and policy advisers from the 1960s (the U.S. Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife's Committee on Rare and Endangered Wildlife Species) to provide a useful historical context for assessing current debates on assisted colonization. The Committee's attempt to produce a consistent policy for the ‘transplantation’ of threatened species illustrates how translocation debates have long hinged on an unresolved set of scientific and conceptual concerns, including the relative value of individual species and historically intact ecosystems and the philosophical status of human-assisted movement of wildlife. Bringing the Committee's deliberations to light places contemporary debates over assisted colonization in the USA in their historical context and illustrates how what often appear to be highly technical and scientific disagreements over conservation translocations are ultimately driven by deeper conceptual issues about the means and ends of conservation.

Entangled judgments: expert preferences for adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change

A major challenge facing conservation experts is how to adapt biodiversity planning and practice to the impacts of climate change. To date, most commonly advocated adaptation actions mirror conventional approaches (e.g. protected areas) despite decades of concern regarding their efficacy and widespread discussion of less conventional, interventionist actions. This survey of 160 experts (scientists and practitioners with specialized knowledge of the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation) seeks to explain this deep incongruity. Specifically, we quantify current preferences for a diverse set of adaptation actions, and examine the choice logics that underpin them. We find near unanimous agreement in principle with the need for extensive active management and restoration interventions given climate change. However, when interventionist actions are provided as options alongside conventional actions, experts overwhelming prefer the latter. Four hypotheses, developed by linking the conservation adaptation literature with that of preference formation and risk and decision making, explore enduring preferences for conventional actions. They are (1) judged most ecologically effective, least risky and best understood; (2) linked with pro-ecological worldviews, marked by positive affective feelings, and an aversion to the hubris of managing nature; (3) a function of trust in biodiversity governance; and/or (4) driven by demographic factors such as gender. Overall, we find that experts prefer conventional over unconventional actions because they are viewed as relatively more effective and less risky from an ecological point of view, and because they are linked with positive affect ratings, and worldviews that are strongly pro-ecological. We discuss the roles of value-based and affective cues in shaping policy outcomes for adaptation specifically, and sustainable resource management more broadly.

How to decide whether to move species threatened by climate change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.

Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate.

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi-equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10-20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.

Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories.

METHODS

We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50-200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology.

KEY RESULTS

The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change - evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

Translocation of imperiled species under changing climates

Conservation translocation of species varies from restoring historic populations to managing the relocation of imperiled species to new locations. We review the literature in three areas--translocation, managed relocation, and conservation decision making--to inform conservation translocation under changing climates. First, climate change increases the potential for conflict over both the efficacy and the acceptability of conservation translocation. The emerging literature on managed relocation highlights this discourse. Second, conservation translocation works in concert with other strategies. The emerging literature in structured decision making provides a framework for prioritizing conservation actions--considering many possible alternatives that are evaluated based on expected benefit, risk, and social-political feasibility. Finally, the translocation literature has historically been primarily concerned with risks associated with the target species. In contrast, the managed relocation literature raises concerns about the ecological risk to the recipient ecosystem. Engaging in a structured decision process that explicitly focuses on stakeholder engagement, problem definition and specification of goals from the outset will allow creative solutions to be developed and evaluated based on their expected effectiveness.

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Climate Vulnerabilities and Maintain Ecosystem Services

Increasing temperatures and altered precipitation regimes associated with human-caused changes in the earth s climate are having substantial impacts on ecological systems and human well-being. Maintaining functioning ecosystems, the provision of ecosystem services, and healthy human populations into the future will require integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies. Adaptation strategies are actions that help human and natural systems accommodate changes. Mitigation strategies are actions that reduce anthropogenic influences on climate. Here, we provide an overview of what will likely be some of the most effective and most important mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change. In addition to describing the ways in which these strategies can address impacts to natural and human systems, we discuss the social considerations that we believe must be incorporated into the development and application of mitigation or adaptation strategies to address political situations, cultural differences, and economic limitations.