Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

ESCMID guidelines on testing for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic individuals to prevent transmission in the health care setting

SCOPE

This guideline addresses the indications for direct testing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in asymptomatic individuals in health care facilities, with the aim to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in these settings. The benefit of testing asymptomatic individuals to create a safe environment for patients and health care workers must be weighed against potential unintended consequences, including delaying necessary treatments owing to false positive results and lower quality of care owing to strict isolation measures.

METHODS

A total of nine PICOs (population, intervention, comparison, outcome) on the topic of testing asymptomatic individuals was selected by the panel members. Subsequently, a literature search for existing guidelines and systematic reviews was performed on PubMed, Epistemonikos, and RecMap using relevant filters available in each database. Data on article/recommendation type, setting, target population, intervention, and quality of the evidence were extracted. Credibility of the systematic reviews was evaluated using the AMSTAR tool, and level of agreement with available recommendation was evaluated with the AGREE II score. Because the evidence available from systematic reviews was deemed insufficiently updated to formulate relevant recommendations, an additional search targeting relevant guidance documents from major public health institutions and original studies was performed. Provisional recommendations were discussed via web conferences until agreement was reached, and final recommendations were formulated according to the GRADE approach.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendations were formulated regarding systematic testing in asymptomatic individuals upon admission to a health care setting, during hospital stay, before elective procedures, and before scheduled nonsurgical procedures. Moreover, recommendations regarding testing of asymptomatic visitors, personal caregivers, and health care workers in health care facilities were presented. Recommendations also were given on contact tracing in asymptomatic patients or health care workers and the possibility of a negative screening test to shorten the quarantine period. Furthermore, if applicable, recommendations were specified to transmission rate and vaccination coverage.

Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains.

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.

REVIEW PROTOCOL

Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/9ewys/).

A common TMPRSS2 variant has a protective effect against severe COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The human protein transmembrane protease serine type 2 (TMPRSS2) plays a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it is required to activate the virus' spike protein, facilitating entry into target cells. We hypothesized that naturally-occurring TMPRSS2 human genetic variants affecting the structure and function of the TMPRSS2 protein may modulate the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We focused on the only common TMPRSS2 non-synonymous variant predicted to be damaging (rs12329760 C>T, p.V160M), which has a minor allele frequency ranging from 0.14 in Ashkenazi Jewish to 0.38 in East Asians. We analysed the association between the rs12329760 and COVID-19 severity in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units recruited as part of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) study. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for sex, age and deprivation index. For in vitro studies, HEK293 cells were co-transfected with ACE2 and either TMPRSS2 wild type or mutant (TMPRSS2V160M). A SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus entry assay was used to investigate the ability of TMPRSS2V160M to promote viral entry.

RESULTS

We show that the T allele of rs12329760 is associated with a reduced likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 (OR 0.87, 95%CI:0.79-0.97, p = 0.01). This association was stronger in homozygous individuals when compared to the general population (OR 0.65, 95%CI:0.50-0.84, p = 1.3 × 10-3). We demonstrate in vitro that this variant, which causes the amino acid substitution valine to methionine, affects the catalytic activity of TMPRSS2 and is less able to support SARS-CoV-2 spike-mediated entry into cells.

CONCLUSION

TMPRSS2 rs12329760 is a common variant associated with a significantly decreased risk of severe COVID-19. Further studies are needed to assess the expression of TMPRSS2 across different age groups. Moreover, our results identify TMPRSS2 as a promising drug target, with a potential role for camostat mesilate, a drug approved for the treatment of chronic pancreatitis and postoperative reflux esophagitis, in the treatment of COVID-19. Clinical trials are needed to confirm this.

The clinical impact of the Covid-19 pandemic first wave on patients with cystic fibrosis in New York

BACKGROUND

People with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) may be at risk of complications from COVID-19 but the impact of COVID-19 on pwCF remains unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic first wave on pwCF in the New York metropolitan area (NY) from March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020. Objectives were to determine (1) the prevalence of COVID-19 by PCR and IgG antibody testing, (2) the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, (3) delay in routine outpatient care, and (4) the effect on anxiety and depression in pwCF.

RESULTS

There were 26 COVID-19 cases diagnosed by PCR or antibody testing among the study cohort of 810 pwCF. The prevalence of COVID-19 by PCR (1.6%) and IgG antibody (12.2%) testing was low. 58% of cases were asymptomatic and 82% were managed at home. 8% were hospitalized and 1 person died. 89% of pwCF experienced delay in care. The prevalence of anxiety increased from 43% baseline to 58% during the pandemic (P<0.01). In post-hoc analysis, the proportion of patients with diabetes (38% versus 16%, P<0.01) and pancreatic insufficiency (96% versus 66%, P<0.01) were higher while CFTR modulator use was lower (46% versus 65%, P = 0.05) in pwCF who tested positive for COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of COVID-19 among pwCF in NY during the pandemic first wave was low and most cases were managed at home. CFTR modulators may be protective. PwCF experienced delay in routine care and increased anxiety.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Thai adults during the first three epidemic waves

This study determined the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 4964 individuals, comprising 300 coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) prepandemic serum samples, 142 COVID-19 patients, 2113 individuals at risk due to their occupations, 1856 individuals at risk due to sharing workplaces or communities with COVID-19 patients, and 553 Thai citizens returning after spending extended periods of time in countries with a high disease prevalence. We recruited participants between May 2020 and May 2021, which spanned the first two epidemic waves and part of the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand. Their sera were tested in a microneutralization and a chemiluminescence immunoassay for IgG against the N protein. Furthermore, we performed an immunofluorescence assay to resolve discordant results between the two assays. None of the prepandemic sera contained anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, while antibodies developed in 88% (15 of 17) of the COVID-19 patients at 8–14 days and in 94–100% of the patients between 15 and 60 days after disease onset. Neutralizing antibodies persisted for at least 8 months, longer than IgG antibodies. Of the 2113 individuals at risk due to their occupation, none of the health providers, airport officers, or public transport drivers were seropositive, while antibodies were present in 0.44% of entertainment workers. Among the 1856 individuals at risk due to sharing workplaces or communities with COVID-19 patients, seropositivity was present in 1.9, 1.5, and 7.5% of the Bangkok residents during the three epidemic waves, respectively, and in 1.3% of the Chiang Mai people during the first epidemic wave. The antibody prevalence varied between 6.5 and 47.0% in 553 Thai people returning from high-risk countries. This serosurveillance study found a low infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Thailand before the emergence of the Delta variant in late May 2021. The findings support the Ministry of Public Health’s data, which are based on numbers of patients and contact tracing.

COVID-19 Infections in Cancer Patients Were Frequently Asymptomatic: Description From a French Prospective Multicenter Cohort (PAPESCO-19)

Background

Cancer patients (CPs) are considered more vulnerable and as a high mortality group regarding COVID-19. In this analysis, we aimed to describe asymptomatic COVID (+) CPs and associated factors.

Methods

We conducted a prospective study in CPs and health care workers (HCWs) in 4 French cancer centers (PAPESCO [PAtients et PErsonnels de Santé des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer pendant l'épidémie de COvid-19] study). This analysis used data recorded between June 17, 2020 and November 30, 2020 in CPs (first 2 waves, no variants). At inclusion and quarterly, CPs reported the presence of predefined COVID-19 symptoms and had a blood rapid diagnostic test; a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was done in case of suspected infection.

Results

A total 878 CPs were included; COVID-19 prevalence was similar in both CPs (8%) and HCWs (9.5%); of the 70 CPs (8%) who were COVID (+), 29 (41.4%) were and remained asymptomatic; 241/808 of the COVID (-) (29.8%) were symptomatic. 18 COVID (+) were hospitalized (2% of CPs), 1 in intensive care unit (ICU) and 1 died (0.1% of CPs and 2.4% of symptomatic COVID [+] CPs). Only the inclusion center was associated with clinical presentation (in Nancy, Angers, Nantes, and Clermont-Ferrand: 65.4%, 35%, 28.6%, and 10% CPs were asymptomatic, respectively).

Conclusions

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in CPs was similar to that observed in HCWs; mortality related to COVID-19 among CPs was 0.1%. More than 40% of COVID (+) CPs were asymptomatic and one third of COVID (-) CPs had symptoms. Only geographic origin was associated with the presence or absence of symptoms. Social distancing and protective measures must be applied in CPs at home and when hospitalized.

Immune Signature of COVID-19: In-Depth Reasons and Consequences of the Cytokine Storm

In the beginning of the third year of the fight against COVID-19, the virus remains at least still one step ahead in the pandemic "war". The key reasons are evolving lineages and mutations, resulting in an increase of transmissibility and ability to evade immune system. However, from the immunologic point of view, the cytokine storm (CS) remains a poorly understood and difficult to combat culprit of the extended number of in-hospital admissions and deaths. It is not fully clear whether the cytokine release is a harmful result of suppression of the immune system or a positive reaction necessary to clear the virus. To develop methods of appropriate treatment and therefore decrease the mortality of the so-called COVID-19-CS, we need to look deeply inside its pathogenesis, which is the purpose of this review.

Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing

Background and objectives

Social and behavioral non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing and travel restrictions, as well as diagnostic tests, have been broadly implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological models and data analysis affirm that wide adoption of NPIs helps to control the pandemic. However, SARS-CoV-2 has extensively demonstrated its ability to evolve. Therefore, it is crucial to examine how NPIs may affect the evolution of the virus. Such evolution could have important effects on the spread and impact of the pandemic.

Methodology

We used evo-epidemiological models to examine the effect of NPIs and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2: attenuation and test evasion.

Results

Our results show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce disease severity. Additionally, the timely application of NPIs could significantly affect the competition between viral strains, favoring the milder strain. Furthermore, a higher testing rate can select for a test-evasive viral strain, even if that strain is less infectious than the detectable competing strain. Importantly, if a less detectable strain evolves, epidemiological metrics such as confirmed daily cases may distort our assessment of the pandemic.

Conclusions and implications

Our results highlight the important implications NPIs can have on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Lay Summary

We used evo-epidemiological models to examine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2: attenuation and test evasion. Our results show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce disease severity.

Global Prevalence of Post COVID-19 Condition or Long COVID: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review

Introduction

This study aims to examine the worldwide prevalence of post COVID-19 condition, through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, and iSearch were searched on July 5, 2021 with verification extending to March 13, 2022. Using a random effects framework with DerSimonian-Laird estimator, we meta-analyzed post COVID-19 condition prevalence at 28+ days from infection.

Results

50 studies were included, and 41 were meta-analyzed. Global estimated pooled prevalence of post COVID-19 condition was 0.43 (95% CI: 0.39,0.46). Hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients have estimates of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44,0.63) and 0.34 (95% CI: 0.25,0.46), respectively. Regional prevalence estimates were Asia— 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37,0.65), Europe— 0.44 (95% CI: 0.32,0.56), and North America— 0.31 (95% CI: 0.21,0.43). Global prevalence for 30, 60, 90, and 120 days after infection were estimated to be 0.37 (95% CI: 0.26,0.49), 0.25 (95% CI: 0.15,0.38), 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14,0.57) and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.40,0.59), respectively. Fatigue was the most common symptom reported with a prevalence of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.17,0.30), followed by memory problems (0.14 [95% CI: 0.10,0.19]).

Discussion

This study finds post COVID-19 condition prevalence is substantial; the health effects of COVID-19 appear to be prolonged and can exert stress on the healthcare system.

Projecting the Pandemic Trajectory through Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19

The course of the COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to many disease trends at various population scales, ranging from local to global. Understanding these trends and the epidemiological phenomena that lead to the changing dynamics associated with disease progression is critical for public health officials and the global community to rein in further spread of this and other virulent diseases. Classic epidemiological modeling based on dynamical systems are powerful tools used for modeling and understanding diseases, but often necessitate modifications to the classic compartmental models to reflect empirical observations. In this paper, we present a collection of extensions to the classic SIRS model to support public health decisions associated with viral pandemics. Specifically, we present models that reflect different levels of disease severity among infected individuals, capture the effect of vaccination on different population groups, capture the effect of different vaccines with different levels of effectiveness, and model the impact of a vaccine with varying number of doses. Further, our mathematical models support the investigation of a pandemic's trend under the emergence of new variants and the associated reduction in vaccine effectiveness. Our models are supported through numerical simulations, which we use to illustrate phenomena that have been observed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings also confirm observations that the mild infectious group accounts for the majority of infected individuals, and that prompt immunization results in weaker pandemic waves across all levels of infection as well as a lower number of disease-caused deaths. Finally, using our models, we demonstrate that, when dealing with a single variant and having access to a highly effective vaccine, a three-dose vaccine has a strong ability to reduce the infectious population. However, when a new variant with higher transmissibility and lower vaccine efficiency emerges, it becomes the dominant circulating variant, as was observed in the recent emergence of the Omicron variant.

Use of COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate, Epidemiological, and Clinical Tools for Guiding Targeted Public Health Interventions

India experienced a second wave of COVID-19 infection with an unprecedented upsurge in the number of cases. We have analyzed the effect of different restrictive measures implemented in six Indian states. Further, based on available national and international data on disease transmission and clinical presentation, we have proposed a decision-making matrix for planning adequate resources to combat the future waves of COVID-19. We conclude that pragmatic and well calibrated localized restrictions, tailored as per specific needs may achieve a decline in disease transmission comparable to drastic steps like national lockdowns. Additionally, we have underscored the critical need for countries to generate local epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data alongwith community perception and uptake of various non-pharmaceutical interventions, for effective planning and policy making.

Using SARS-CoV-2 anti-S IgG levels as a marker of previous infection: Example from an Israeli Healthcare worker cohort

Objectives: Determining COVID-19 status is important for global epidemiology and individual-level vaccination decision-making. SARS-CoV-2 infection can generally only be detected during a 7–10-day period using polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen testing, and infection-specific antinucleocapsid IgG assays are not universally available. We determined whether SARS-CoV-2 antispike (anti-S) IgG levels could discriminate between vaccination and previous infection when interpreted alongside vaccination timing.

Methods: We measured SARS-CoV-2 anti-S-IgG level in 535 vaccinated Israeli healthcare workers with known previous infection status 6–8 months after the second dose.

Results: Anti-S IgG levels above 1000 AU/ml at that time point was 93.3% predictive of infection in the previous 3 months, whereas the negative predictive value for infection in the past 3 months of a level below that threshold was 99.5%.

Conclusion: When interpreted alongside vaccination timing, anti-S serological assays can confirm or exclude previous infections within the previous 3 months.

Polycystic ovary syndrome and risks for COVID-19 infection: A comprehensive review : PCOS and COVID-19 relationship

This comprehensive review aimed to evaluate the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection (the cause of coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19) and the metabolic and endocrine characteristics frequently found in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). In the general population, COVID-19 is more severe in subjects with dyslipidemia, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and arterial hypertension. Because these conditions are comorbidities commonly associated with PCOS, it was hypothesized that women with PCOS would be at higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 and developing more severe clinical presentations. This hypothesis was confirmed in several epidemiological studies. The present review shows that women with PCOS are at 28%-50% higher risk of being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus at all ages and that, in these women, COVID-19 is associated with increased rates of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. We summarize the mechanisms of the higher risk of COVID-19 infection in women with PCOS, particularly in those with carbohydrate and lipid abnormal metabolism, hyperandrogenism, and central obesity.

A COVID-19 primer for primary care clinicians

COVID-19 has challenged primary care clinicians to rapidly learn new information and adapt clinical practice in response to the continuous evolution of prevention, diagnosis, and management measures. The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination for age-eligible children has afforded increased opportunities for disease prevention, and the pandemic has highlighted the need for primary care clinicians to serve as advocates for their young patients and their communities.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Estimated Public Health Impact in California

Importance

Despite widespread vaccination against COVID-19 in the United States, there are limited empirical data quantifying their public health impact in the population.

Objective

To estimate the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths directly averted because of COVID-19 vaccination in California.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This modeling study used person-level data provided by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as well as COVID-19 vaccine administration from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021. A statistical model was used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases that would have occurred in the vaccine era (November 29, 2020, to October 16, 2021) in the absence of vaccination based on the ratio of the number of cases among the unvaccinated (aged <12 years) and vaccine-eligible groups (aged ≥12 years) before vaccine introduction. Vaccine-averted COVID-19 cases were estimated by finding the difference between the projected and observed number of COVID-19 cases. Averted COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were assessed by applying estimated hospitalization and case fatality risks to estimates of vaccine-averted COVID-19 cases. As a sensitivity analysis, a second independent model was developed to estimate the number of vaccine-averted COVID-19 outcomes by applying published data on vaccine effectiveness to data on COVID-19 vaccine administration and estimated risk of COVID-19 over time.

Exposure

COVID-19 vaccination.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths estimated to have been averted because of COVID-19 vaccination.

Results

There were 4 585 248 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 240 718 hospitalizations, and 70 406 deaths in California from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021, during which 27 164 680 vaccine-eligible individuals aged 12 years and older were reported to have received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in the vaccine era (79.5% of the eligible population). The primary model estimated that COVID-19 vaccination averted 1 523 500 (95% prediction interval [PI], 976 800-2 230 800) COVID-19 cases in California, corresponding to a 72% (95% PI, 53%-91%) relative reduction in cases because of vaccination. COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to have averted 72 930 (95% PI, 53 250-99 160) hospitalizations and 19 430 (95% PI, 14 840-26 230) deaths during the study period. The alternative model identified comparable findings.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study provides evidence of the public health benefit of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and further supports the urgency for continued vaccination.

A Rapid, Highly Sensitive and Open-Access SARS-CoV-2 Detection Assay for Laboratory and Home Testing

RT-qPCR-based diagnostic tests play important roles in combating virus-caused pandemics such as Covid-19. However, their dependence on sophisticated equipment and the associated costs often limits their widespread use. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification after reverse transcription (RT-LAMP) is an alternative nucleic acid detection method that overcomes these limitations. Here, we present a rapid, robust, and sensitive RT-LAMP-based SARS-CoV-2 detection assay. Our 40-min procedure bypasses the RNA isolation step, is insensitive to carryover contamination, and uses a colorimetric readout that enables robust SARS-CoV-2 detection from various sample types. Based on this assay, we have increased sensitivity and scalability by adding a nucleic acid enrichment step (Bead-LAMP), developed a version for home testing (HomeDip-LAMP), and identified open-source RT-LAMP enzymes that can be produced in any molecular biology laboratory. On a dedicated website, rtlamp.org (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6033689), we provide detailed protocols and videos. Our optimized, general-purpose RT-LAMP assay is an important step toward population-scale SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Using Best-Worst Scaling to investigate younger adult Canadians' preferences for COVID-19 vaccination and public health measures: An observational study

Containing the COVID-19 pandemic is dependent on compliance with public health recommendations and mandates which is lower in younger compared to older adults. Furthermore, younger adults have demonstrated lower uptake of COVID-19 vaccines. The aim of this study was to assess preferences for COVID-19 related preventive health measures and vaccination and to explore their association with COVID-19 vaccine acceptability. Canadians aged 18-39 years were invited to participate in a web-based survey in August 2021. We used the Best-Worst-Scaling (BWS) methodology to collect and analyze preference data and multivariable binary logistic regression to estimate associations with vaccine acceptability. Based on 266 complete responses, we found strong preferences for physical distancing and wearing face masks, as compared to general hygiene and respiratory etiquette. High vaccine accessibility independent of the location, receiving successive doses of the same vaccine brand and higher vaccine uptake of people in younger adults' social circle were highly preferred. Higher preferences for mandates requiring proof of vaccination and altruistic motives focused on protecting others by getting vaccinated were associated with vaccine acceptability. As the COVID-19 pandemic waxes and wanes, studies using larger, nationally representative samples are needed to replicate and validate these results to assess preferences for health behaviors corresponding to the latest recommendations. The use of this methodology could provide public health authorities with a unique opportunity to develop targeted, preference-based messaging that aligns with the latest guidelines to effectively encourage compliance and COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

Assessing community-level COVID-19 infection risk through three-generational household concentration in Nebraska, U.S.: An approach for COVID-19 prevention

The three-generational household was a focal point of concern for school and community the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The current study, using small area data and household variables, reported an approach to neighborhood-level COVID-19 mitigation for school reopening and communities returning to normalcy. The study started with an age-stratified Poisson regression to examine the association between the proportion of three-generational households and COVID-19 infection rates based on data from 74 census tracts in Lancaster County, Nebraska, U.S. from March 5, 2020 to August 22, 2020, followed by mapping the model-based risk score by census tract in the study area. We explored the feasibility of using COVID-19 infection rates and vaccination rates to inform decision-making on school opening from March 5, 2020 to February 3, 2021. The overall infection rate increased by 3% for every unit increased in the percentage of three-generational households after controlling for other covariates in the model. The census tracts were classified into low-, medium-, and high-priority neighborhoods for potential community-based interventions, such as targeted messages for household hygiene and isolation strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA is enriched by orders of magnitude in primary settled solids relative to liquid wastewater at publicly owned treatment works

Wastewater-based epidemiology has gained attention throughout the world for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater to supplement clinical testing. Raw wastewater consists of small particles, or solids, suspended in liquid. Methods have been developed to measure SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the liquid and the solid fraction of wastewater, with some studies reporting higher concentrations in the solid fraction. To investigate this relationship further, six laboratories collaborated to conduct a study across five publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) where both primary settled solids obtained from primary clarifiers and raw wastewater influent samples were collected and quantified for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Settled solids and influent samples were processed by participating laboratories using their respective methods and retrospectively paired based on date of collection. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations, on a mass equivalent basis, were higher in settled solids than in influent by approximately three orders of magnitude. Concentrations in matched settled solids and influent were positively and significantly correlated at all five POTWs. RNA concentrations in both settled solids and influent were correlated to COVID-19 incidence rates in the sewersheds and thus representative of disease occurrence; the settled solids methods appeared to produce a comparable relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration measurements and incidence rates across all POTWs. Settled solids and influent methods showed comparable sensitivity, N gene detection frequency, and calculated empirical incidence rate lower limits. Analysis of settled solids for SARS-CoV-2 RNA has the advantage of using less sample volume to achieve similar sensitivity to influent methods.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA is enriched by orders of magnitude in primary settled solids relative to liquid wastewater at publicly owned treatment works

Wastewater-based epidemiology has gained attention throughout the world for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater to supplement clinical testing. Raw wastewater consists of small particles, or solids, suspended in liquid. Methods have been developed to measure SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the liquid and the solid fraction of wastewater, with some studies reporting higher concentrations in the solid fraction. To investigate this relationship further, six laboratories collaborated to conduct a study across five publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) where both primary settled solids obtained from primary clarifiers and raw wastewater influent samples were collected and quantified for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Settled solids and influent samples were processed by participating laboratories using their respective methods and retrospectively paired based on date of collection. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations, on a mass equivalent basis, were higher in settled solids than in influent by approximately three orders of magnitude. Concentrations in matched settled solids and influent were positively and significantly correlated at all five POTWs. RNA concentrations in both settled solids and influent were correlated to COVID-19 incidence rates in the sewersheds and thus representative of disease occurrence; the settled solids methods appeared to produce a comparable relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration measurements and incidence rates across all POTWs. Settled solids and influent methods showed comparable sensitivity, N gene detection frequency, and calculated empirical incidence rate lower limits. Analysis of settled solids for SARS-CoV-2 RNA has the advantage of using less sample volume to achieve similar sensitivity to influent methods.

HDAC inhibition as neuroprotection in COVID-19 infection

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible of COVID-19 affecting millions of humans around the world. COVID-19 shows diverse clinical symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue, diarrhea, body aches, headaches, anosmia and hyposmia). Approximately 30% of the patients with COVID-19 showed neurological symptoms, these going from mild to severe manifestations including headache, dizziness, impaired consciousness, encephalopathy, anosmia, hypogeusia, hyposmia, psychology and psychiatry among others. The neurotropism of SARS-CoV-2 virus explains its neuroinvasion provoking neurological damage as acute demyelination, neuroinflammation etc. At molecular level, the COVID-19 patients had higher levels of cytokines and chemokines known as cytokines storms which disrupt the blood brain barrier allowing the entrance of monocytes and lymphocytes causing neuroinflammation, neurodegeneration and demyelination. In addition, ischemic, hemorrhagic strokes, seizures and encephalopathy have been observed due to the proinflammatory cytokines. In this sense, to avoid or decrease neurological damage due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, an early neuroprotective management should be adopted. Several approaches can be used; one of them includes the use of HDAC inhibitors (HDACi) due to their neuroprotective effects. Also, the HDACi down regulates the pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNF- decreasing the neurotoxicity. HDACi can also avoid and prevent the entrance of the virus into the Central nervous System (CNS) as well as decrease the virus replication by downregulating the virus receptors. Here we review the mechanisms that could explain how the SARS-CoV-2 virus could reach the CNS, induce the neurological damage and symptoms, as well as the possibility to use HDACi as neuroprotective therapy.

Age-Specific Changes in Virulence Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

Background

Novel variants of concern (VOCs) have been associated with both increased infectivity and virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is closely linked to age. Whether relative increases in virulence of novel VOCs are similar across the age spectrum or are limited to some age groups is unknown.

Methods

We created a retrospective cohort of people in Ontario, Canada, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were screened for VOCs (n = 259 984) between 7 February 2021 and 31 October 2021. Cases were classified as N501Y-positive VOC, probable Delta VOC, or VOC undetected. We constructed age-specific logistic regression models to evaluate associations between N501Y-postive or Delta VOC infections and infection severity using hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death as outcome variables. Models were adjusted for sex, comorbidity, vaccination status, and temporal trends.

Results

Infection with either N501Y-positive or Delta VOCs was associated with significant elevations in risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death across age groups compared with infections where a VOC was not detected. The Delta VOC increased hospitalization risk in children aged <10 years by a factor of 2.5 (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.0) compared with non-VOCs. There was a significant inverse relationship between age and relative increase in risk of death with the Delta VOC, with younger age groups showing a greater relative increase in risk of death than older individuals.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 VOCs appear to be associated with increased relative virulence of infection in all age groups, though low absolute numbers of outcomes in younger individuals make estimates in these groups imprecise.

COVID-19 Infection, Prevention, and Control Considerations in the Obstetric Environment

Pregnancy increases the risk of severe illness due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Thus, prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in all obstetrical health care settings requires consistent implementation of multiple evidence-based practices and consideration of local epidemiology, local regulations for COVID-19, and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Professional Societies. COVID-safe practices should be implemented for patients, visitors/support persons, and health care personnel and include screening, appropriate personal protective equipment, and transmission precautions. Vaccination of all health care personnel, pregnant people, and their support persons remains the best strategy to prevent COVID-19.

Non-pharmaceutical intervention levels to reduce the COVID-19 attack ratio among children

The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0-11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children.

Combined Prospective Seroconversion and PCR Data of Selected Cohorts Indicate a High Rate of Subclinical SARS-CoV-2 Infections-an Open Observational Study in Lower Saxony, Germany

Despite lockdown measures, intense symptom-based PCR, and antigen testing, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread further. In this open observational study conducted in Lower Saxony, Germany, voluntary SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were performed from April 2020 until June 2021, supported by serum antibody testing to prove whether PCR testing in subjects with none or few symptoms of COVID-19 is a suitable tool to manage the pandemic. In different mobile stations, 4,817 subjects from three different working fields participated in the PCR testing. Serum antibody screening using the SARS-CoV-2 ViraChip IgG (Viramed, Germany) and the Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche, Germany) was performed alongside virus neutralization testing. Subjects were questioned regarding comorbidities and COVID-19 symptoms. Fifty-one subjects with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected of which 31 subjects did not show any symptoms possibly characteristic for COVID-19. An additional 37 subjects reported a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (total prevalence 1.82%). Seroconversion was discovered in 58 subjects with known SARS-CoV-2 infection and in 58 subjects that never had a positive PCR test. The latter had a significantly lower Charlson Comorbidity Index, and one third of them were asymptomatic. In 50% of all seroconverted subjects, neutralizing serum antibodies (NAbs) were detectable in parallel to N/S1 (n = 16) or N/S1/S2 antigen specific antibodies (n = 40) against SARS-CoV-2. NAb titers decreased within 100 days after PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 acute infection by at least 2.5-fold. A relatively high rate of subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections may contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that in addition to other intervention strategies, systematic screening of asymptomatic persons by PCR testing may significantly enable better pandemic control. IMPORTANCE Within this open observational study, repeated PCR (n > 4,700) and antibody screening (n > 1,600) tests were offered in three different working fields. The study identified 51 subjects with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and 37 subjects reported to have had a positive PCR test taken externally. Thirty-one of the 51 subjects did not display any symptoms prior to testing. In addition, 58 subjects without PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified by seroconversion. Subjects, that had undergone SARS-CoV-2 infection without having noticed, more often had a low grade of immunization with no NAbs, but may have relevantly contributed to the spread of the pandemic. Based on these results, we suggest that both regular PCR and rapid test screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, specifically within groups or workplaces identifiable as having close quarter contact, thus increased infection transference risk, is necessary to better assess and therefore reduce the spread of a pandemic virus.

Successive Pandemic Waves with Different Virulent Strains and the Effects of Vaccination for SARS-CoV-2

One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.

Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Delta disease burden in Australia by non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating children: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

In countries with high COVID-19 vaccination rates the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant resulted in rapidly increasing case numbers. This study evaluated the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with alternative vaccination strategies to determine feasible Delta mitigation strategies for Australia. We aimed to understand the potential effectiveness of high vaccine coverage levels together with NPI physical distancing activation and to establish the benefit of adding children and adolescents to the vaccination program. Border closure limited SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia; however, slow vaccination uptake resulted in Delta outbreaks in the two largest cities and may continue as international travel increases.

METHODS

An agent-based model was used to evaluate the potential reduction in the COVID-19 health burden resulting from alternative vaccination strategies. We assumed immunity was derived from vaccination with the BNT162b2 Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Two age-specific vaccination strategies were evaluated, ages 5 and above, and 12 and above, and the health burden determined under alternative vaccine coverages, with/without activation of NPIs. Age-specific infections generated by the model, together with recent UK data, permitted reductions in the health burden to be quantified.

RESULTS

Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are shown to reduce by (i) increasing coverage to include children aged 5 to 11 years, (ii) activating moderate NPI measures and/or (iii) increasing coverage levels above 80%. At 80% coverage, vaccinating ages 12 and above without NPIs is predicted to result in 1095 additional hospitalisations per million population; adding ages 5 and above reduces this to 996 per million population. Activating moderate NPIs reduces hospitalisations to 611 for ages 12 and over, and 382 per million for ages 5 and above. Alternatively, increasing coverage to 90% for those aged 12 and above is estimated to reduce hospitalisations to 616. Combining all three measures is shown to reduce cases to 158, hospitalisations to 1 and deaths to zero, per million population.

CONCLUSIONS

Delta variant outbreaks may be managed by vaccine coverage rates higher than 80% and activation of moderate NPI measures, preventing healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. If 90% coverage cannot be achieved, including young children and adolescents in the vaccination program coupled with activation of moderate NPIs appears necessary to suppress future COVID-19 Delta-like transmission and prevent intensive care unit surge capacity from being exceeded.

Distinguishing Admissions Specifically for COVID-19 from Incidental SARS-CoV-2 Admissions: A National EHR Research Consortium Study

Admissions are generally classified as COVID-19 hospitalizations if the patient has a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. However, because 35% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic, patients admitted for unrelated indications with an incidentally positive test could be misclassified as a COVID-19 hospitalization. EHR-based studies have been unable to distinguish between a hospitalization specifically for COVID-19 versus an incidental SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization. From a retrospective EHR-based cohort in four US healthcare systems, a random sample of 1,123 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients hospitalized between 3/2020â€"8/2021 was manually chart-reviewed and classified as admitted-with-COVID-19 (incidental) vs. specifically admitted for COVID-19 (for-COVID-19). EHR-based phenotyped feature sets filtered out incidental admissions, which occurred in 26%. The top site-specific feature sets had 79-99% specificity with 62-75% sensitivity, while the best performing across-site feature set had 71-94% specificity with 69-81% sensitivity. A large proportion of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive admissions were incidental. Straightforward EHR-based phenotypes differentiated admissions, which is important to assure accurate public health reporting and research.

Prevalence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Different Clinical Stages before the National COVID-19 Vaccination Programme in Malaysia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

More than 1.75 million COVID-19 infections and 16 thousand associated deaths have been reported in Malaysia. A meta-analysis on the prevalence of COVID-19 in different clinical stages before the National COVID-19 Vaccination Program in Malaysia is still lacking. To address this, the disease severity of a total of 215 admitted COVID-19 patients was initially recorded in the early phase of this study, and the data were later pooled into a meta-analysis with the aim of providing insight into the prevalence of COVID-19 in 5 different clinical stages during the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. We have conducted a systematic literature search using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and two preprint databases (bioRxiv and medRxiv) for relevant studies with specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality assessment for the included studies was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The heterogeneity was examined with an I2 index and a Q-test. Funnel plots and Egger's tests were performed to determine publication bias in this meta-analysis. Overall, 5 studies with 6375 patients were included, and the pooled prevalence rates in this meta-analysis were calculated using a random-effect model. The highest prevalence of COVID-19 in Malaysia was observed in Stage 2 cases (32.0%), followed by Stage 1 (27.8%), Stage 3 (17.1%), Stage 4 (7.6%), and Stage 5 (3.4%). About two-thirds of the number of cases have at least one morbidity, with the highest percentage of hypertension (66.7%), obesity (55.5%), or diabetes mellitus (33.3%) in Stage 5 patients. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggested a high prevalence of COVID-19 occurred in Stage 2. The prevalence rate in Stage 5 appeared to be the lowest among COVID-19 patients before implementing the vaccination program in Malaysia. These meta-analysis data are critically useful for designing screening and vaccination programs and improving disease management in the country.

Insights into the evolutionary and prophylactic analysis of SARS-CoV-2: A review

In late 2019, following the emergence of a β-originated SARS-CoV-2, phylogenetic and evolutionary approaches have been demonstrated to strengthen the diagnostic and prophylactic stratagem of COVID-19 at an unprecedented level. Despite its clinical prominence, the SARS-CoV-2 gene set remains largely irrefutable by impeding the dissection of COVID-19 biology. However, many pieces of molecular and serological evidence have predicted that SARS-CoV-2 related viruses carry their roots from bats and pangolins of South East Asia. Analysis of viral genome predicts that point mutations at a rate of 10-4 nucleotides per base in the receptor-binding domain allow the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants at regular intervals. Research in the evolution of molecular pathways involved in emergence of pandemic is critical for the development of therapeutics and vaccines as well as the prevention of future zoonosis. By determining the phyletic lineages of the SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants and those of the conserved regions in the accessory and spike proteins of all the SARS-related coronaviruses, a universal vaccine against all human coronaviruses could be formulated which would revolutionize the field of medicine. This review highlighted the current development and future prospects of antiviral drugs, inhibitors, mesenchymal stem cells, passive immunization, targeted immune therapy and CRISPR-Cas-based prophylactic and therapeutic strategies against SARS-CoV-2. However, further investigations on Covid-19 pathogenesis is required for the successful fabrication of successful antivirals.

Rapid Response in an Uncertain Environment: Study of COVID-19 Scientific Research Under the Parallel Model

Purpose

The rapid response of COVID-19 scientific research played a significant role in pandemic prevention and control but failed to block the spread of the pandemic rapidly. Besides the complexity of the virus, the effectiveness of control and prevention measures, and other factors, the adaptation of the mode of conducting scientific research is also crucial for the prevention and control of COVID-19. In this study, a parallel model was used to explore the effects of the rapid scientific response on COVID-19 to assess why pandemics continue to spread under rapid response.

Analysis

This study presents the response of scientific research based on country/region and publication dimensions after analyzing COVID-19 studies in the Web of Science and PubMed databases. Co-occurrence analysis of items was used to determine the generation rate of COVID-19 research under different topics to identify the reflected innovation model.

Results

More manifestations on rapid response of COVID-19 research, especially compared with the linear model of SARS research, showed that the COVID-19 research followed a parallel or concurrent innovation model.

Conclusion

Early multi-stakeholder partnership, convenient information sharing, and improved research competence promote the parallel model in COVID-19. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the COVID-19 virus and the adverse effect of rapid response may limit the time efficiency of the parallel model. In conclusion, the rapid prevention and control of the pandemic cannot fully rely on scientific research but requires more combined effort under an uncertain global setting.

Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic

With the presence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic infections detected, their proportion, transmission potential, and other aspects such as immunity and related emerging challenges have attracted people's attention. We have found that based on high-quality research, asymptomatic infections account for at least one-third of the total cases, whereas based on systematic review and meta-analysis, the proportion is about one-fifth. Evaluating the true transmission potential of asymptomatic cases is difficult but critical, since it may affect national policies in response to COVID-19. We have summarized the current evidence and found, compared with symptomatic cases, the transmission capacity of asymptomatic individuals is weaker, even though they have similar viral load and relatively short virus shedding duration. As the outbreak progresses, asymptomatic infections have also been found to develop long COVID-19. In addition, the role of asymptomatic infection in COVID-19 remains to be further revealed as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to emerge. Nevertheless, as asymptomatic infections transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus silently, they still pose a substantial threat to public health. Therefore, it is essential to conduct screening to obtain more knowledge about the asymptomatic infections and to detect them as soon as possible; meanwhile, management of them is also a key point in the fight against COVID-19 community transmission. The different management of asymptomatic infections in various countries are compared and the experience in China is displayed in detail.

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy.

METHODS

To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality.

FINDINGS

Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods.

INTERPRETATION

Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy.

FUNDING

Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research.

Natural resistance against infections: focus on COVID-19

Not all individuals exposed to a pathogen develop illness: some are naturally resistant whereas others develop an asymptomatic infection. Epidemiological studies suggest that there is similar variability in susceptibility to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. We propose that natural resistance is part of the disease history in some individuals exposed to this new coronavirus. Epidemiological arguments for natural resistance to SARS-CoV-2 are the lower seropositivity of children compared to adults, studies on closed environments of ships with outbreaks, and prevalence studies in some developing countries. Potential mechanisms of natural resistance include host genetic variants, viral interference, cross-protective natural antibodies, T cell immunity, and highly effective innate immune responses. Better understanding of natural resistance can help to advance preventive and therapeutic measures against infections for improved preparedness against potential future pandemics.

Human genetic and immunological determinants of critical COVID-19 pneumonia

SARS-CoV-2 infection is benign in most individuals but, in _˜10% of cases, it triggers hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia, which becomes critical in _˜3% of cases. The ensuing risk of death (_˜1%) doubles every five years from childhood onward and is _˜1.5 times greater in men than in women. What are the molecular and cellular determinants of critical COVID-19 pneumonia? Inborn errors of type I IFNs, including autosomal TLR3 and X-linked TLR7 deficiencies, are found in _˜1-5% of patients with critical pneumonia under 60 years old, and a lower proportion in older patients. Pre-existing autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α, -β, and/or -ω, which are more common in men than in women, are found in _˜15-20% of patients with critical pneumonia over 70 years old, and a lower proportion in younger patients. Thus, at least 15% of cases of critical COVID-19 pneumonia can apparently be explained. The TLR3- and TLR7-dependent production of type I IFNs by respiratory epithelial cells and plasmacytoid dendritic cells, respectively, is essential for host defense against SARS-CoV-2. In ways that can depend on age and sex, insufficient type I IFN immunity in the respiratory tract during the first few days of infection may account for the spread of the virus, leading to pulmonary and systemic inflammation.

Trend in sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 serology one year after mild and asymptomatic COVID-19: unpacking potential bias in seroprevalence studies

A key aim of serosurveillance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been to estimate the prevalence of prior infection, by correcting crude seroprevalence against estimated test performance for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19. We show that poor generalizability of sensitivity estimates to some target populations may lead to substantial underestimation of case numbers.

Monitoring the Viral Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Still Waterbodies Using a Lanthanide-Doped Carbon Nanoparticle-Based Sensor Array

The latest epidemic of extremely infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has created a significant public health concern. Despite substantial efforts to contain severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within a specific location, shortcomings in the surveillance of predominantly asymptomatic infections constrain attempts to identify the epidemiological spread of the virus. Continuous surveillance of wastewater streams, including sewage, offers opportunities to track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, which is believed to be found in fecal waste. To demonstrate the feasibility of SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater systems, we herein present a novel facilely constructed fluorescence sensing array based on a panel of three different lanthanide-doped carbon nanoparticles (LnCNPs). The differential fluorescence response pattern due to the counterion-ligand interactions allowed us to employ powerful pattern recognition to effectively detect SARS-CoV-2 and differentiate it from other viruses or bacteria. The sensor results were benchmarked to the gold standard RT-qPCR, and the sensor showed excellent sensitivity (1.5 copies/μL) and a short sample-to-results time of 15 min. This differential response of the sensor array was also explained from the differential mode of binding of the LnCNPs with the surface proteins of the studied bacteria and viruses. Therefore, the developed sensor array provides a cost-effective, community diagnostic tool that could be potentially used as a novel epidemiologic surveillance approach to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

Estimating the Proportion of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in an Italian Region with Intermediate Incidence during the First Pandemic Wave: An Observational Retrospective Study

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, asymptomatic transmission represented an important challenge for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the traditional public health strategies. Further understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic infections to SARS-CoV-2 transmission has been of crucial importance for pandemic control. We conducted a retrospective epidemiological study to characterize asymptomatic COVID-19 cases occurred in the Apulia region, Italy, during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 outbreak (February 29-July 7, 2020). We analyzed data collected in a regional platform developed to manage surveillance activities, namely, investigation and follow-up of cases and contacts, contact tracing, and laboratory and clinical data collection. We included all asymptomatic cases that were laboratory-confirmed during the appropriate follow-up, defined as persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 who did not develop symptoms/clinical signs of the disease. Between February 29 and July 7, 2020, a total of 4,536 cases were diagnosed with COVID-19 among 193,757 tests performed. The group of persons with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection consisted of 903 cases; the asymptomatic proportion was 19.9% (95% CI: 18.8-21.1%); this decreased with increasing age (OR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.96; p = 0.001), in individuals with underlying comorbidities (OR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.41-0.73; p < 0.001), and in males (OR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.54-0.87; p = 0.002). The median asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive period was 19 days (IQR: 14-31) and the cumulative proportion of persons with resolution of infection 14 days after the first positive PCR test was 74%. As the public health community is debating the question of whether asymptomatic and late spreaders could sustain virus transmission in the communities, such cases present unique opportunities to gain insight into SARS-CoV-2 adaptation to human host. This has important implications for future COVID-19 surveillance and prevention.

Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic

This decision analytic modeling study uses a simulation model to evaluate the association of US COVID-19 vaccination campaigns with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths averted under an accelerated vaccination program in northeastern and southern regions of the USA

Background

The fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions.

Methods

We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021.

Findings

A 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9).

Interpretation

Accelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections.

Funding

This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund. SMM acknowledges the support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [OV4 – 170643, COVID-19 Rapid Research] and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling, MfPH grant. MCF acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health (5 K01 AI141576).

What vaccination rate(s) minimize total societal costs after 'opening up' to COVID-19? Age-structured SIRM results for the Delta variant in Australia (New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia)

Using three age-structured, stochastic SIRM models, calibrated to Australian data post July 2021 with community transmission of the Delta variant, we projected possible public health outcomes (daily cases, hospitalisations, ICU beds, ventilators and fatalities) and economy costs for three states: New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC) and Western Australia (WA). NSW and VIC have had on-going community transmission from July 2021 and were in 'lockdown' to suppress transmission. WA did not have on-going community transmission nor was it in lockdown at the model start date (October 11th 2021) but did maintain strict state border controls. We projected the public health outcomes and the economic costs of 'opening up' (relaxation of lockdowns in NSW and VIC or fully opening the state border for WA) at alternative vaccination rates (70%, 80% and 90%), compared peak patient demand for ICU beds and ventilators to staffed state-level bed capacity, and calculated a 'preferred' vaccination rate that minimizes societal costs and that varies by state. We found that the preferred vaccination rate for all states is at least 80% and that the preferred population vaccination rate is increasing with: (1) the effectiveness (infection, hospitalization and fatality) of the vaccine; (2) the lower is the daily lockdown cost; (3) the larger are the public health costs from COVID-19; (4) the higher is the rate of community transmission before opening up; and (5) the less effective are the public health measures after opening up.

Place des virus respiratoires dans les pneumonies aiguës communautaires de l'adulte : quels changements depuis la Covid-19 ?

L’émergence du SARS-CoV-2 a renforcé l'intérêt pour la place des virus respiratoires, dans les pneumonies aiguës communautaires, en mettant en exergue de nombreux points encore mal connus tels que la part des infections asymptomatiques, les interactions entre virus respiratoires et pathogènes non viraux, leurs périodes d'incubation, leur pathogénicité ou encore la durée d'excrétion variable.

La présentation clinique et radiologique des pneumonies aiguës communautaires ne permet pas toujours de distinguer l'origine virale de l'origine bactérienne.

L'absence de réelle conséquence thérapeutique semble un frein à l'utilisation des PCR multiplex dans la pratique quotidienne. Toutefois, l'amélioration en termes de délai de rendu des résultats et du nombre de pathogènes inclus dans les panels, ainsi que l'accumulation récente de données épidémiologiques et cliniques, devraient aider à rationaliser l'utilisation de ces tests, faciliter l'interprétation de leurs résultats et guider l'utilisation des molécules antivirales en développement.

Eosinophilic Esophagitis Patients Are Not at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19: A Report From a Global Registry

BACKGROUND

The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) and eosinophilic gastrointestinal diseases (EGIDs) is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to characterize patients with EoE and EGIDs who had COVID-19, assess severity of COVID-19 in the EoE/EGID population, and evaluate for COVID-19-induced EoE/EGID flares.

METHODS

We established an online global registry collecting physician entered, deidentified data related to patient demographics, EoE/EGID disease features, comorbidities, and treatments, COVID-19 source of exposure, symptoms, illness severity, hospitalizations, and deaths.

RESULTS

Ninety-four cases were reported between March 2020 and April 2021 (median age, 21 years; range, 1.5-53 years; 73% male). Most had atopy (73%), and 80% had isolated EoE. Before COVID-19, the EoE/EGID activity was reported as clinical remission in 51 (54%) and moderate in 20 (21%). EoE/EGID treatments at the time of COVID-19 included proton pump inhibitors 49 (52%), swallowed/topical steroids 48 (51%), and dietary elimination 34 (36%). COVID-19 symptoms included cough (56%), fever (49%), anosmia (21%), and ageusia (22%). Most patients with COVID-19 had a mild course (70%), with 15% asymptomatic, 12% moderate, and 2% severe. Three patients were hospitalized, and no intensive care unit admissions or deaths were reported. Mean time from first symptoms to resolution in symptomatic patients was 10 days (range, 1-90 days). A single EGID flare was reported during COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

In a global EoE/EGID registry, relatively few COVID-19 cases have been reported. COVID-19 severity was comparable to the general population. Based on this registry, it does not appear that patients with EoE are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 infection or that COVID-19 leads to EGID flares.

Demographic, Virological Characteristics and Prognosis of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Patients in South China

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic transmission is a major concern for SARS-CoV-2 community spread; however, little information is available on demographic, virological characteristics and prognosis of asymptomatic cases.

METHODS

All COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Guangdong Province from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021, were included and were divided into asymptomatic and symptomaticgroup. The source country of all patients, clinical laboratory test results, the genotype of virus and the time of SARS-CoV-2 RNA turning negative or hospitalization were confirmed.

RESULTS

Total 233 patients from 57 different countries or regions were included, with 83 (35.6%) asymptomatic and 150 (64.4%) symptomatic patients. Asymptomatic cases were younger (P = 0.019), lower rate in comorbidities (P = 0.021) such as hypertension (P = 0.083) and chronic liver disease (P = 0.045), lower PCT (P = 0.021), DDI (P < 0.001) and ALT (P = 0.029), but higher WBC count (P = 0.002) and lymphocyte (P = 0.011) than symptomatic patients. As for SARS-CoV-2 subtypes, patients infected with B.1.1 (53.8%), B.1.351 (81.8%) and B.1.524 (60%) are mainly asymptomatic, while infected with B, B.1, B.1.1.63, B.1.1.7, B.1.36, B.1.36.1, B.1.36.16, B.1.5 and B.6 were inclined to be symptomatic. Patients infected with variant B.1.351 and B.1.524 spent longer time in SARS-CoV-2 RNA turn negative (26 days, P = 0.085; 41 days, P = 0.007) and hospitalization (28 days, P = 0.085; 43 days, P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The asymptomatic cases are prone to develop in patients with younger age, less comorbidities andinfected with B.1.1 and B.1.524 variants. More attention should be paid for lineage B.1.524 because it can significantly prolong the SARS-CoV-2 RNA negative conversion time and hospitalization in infected cases.

Epidemiological Indicators of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and Vaccination Effectiveness on the Report of Positive Cases in the Colombian Army

The description of the epidemiological indicators of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), such as the mortality rate (MR), the case fatality rate (CFR), and the attack rate (AR), as well as the geographical distribution and daily case reports, are used to evaluate the impact that this virus has had within the Colombian Army and its health system. As military forces around the world represent the force that defends sovereignty, independence, the integrity of the national territory, and the constitutional order, while maintaining migration controls in blocked border areas during this critical pandemic times, they must carry out strict epidemiological surveillance to control the situation among the servicemen. Up to date, the Colombian Army has faced a very high attack rate (AR = 8.55%) due, among others, to living conditions where active military personnel share bedrooms, bathrooms, and dining facilities, which facilitate the spread of the virus. However, being a mainly young and healthy population, the MR was 1.82 deaths/1,000 ha, while the CFR = 2.13% indexes consistently low if compared with those values reported for the national population. In addition, the effectiveness of vaccination is shown in daily cases of COVID-19, where, for the third peak, the active military population presented a decrease of positive patients compared to the dynamics of national transmission and the total population of the military forces (active, retired, and beneficiaries).

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome

Great progress has been made over the past 18 months in scientific understanding of the biology, epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Extraordinary advances have been made in vaccine development and the execution of clinical trials of possible therapies. However, uncertainties remain, and this review assesses these in the context of virus transmission, epidemiology, control by social distancing measures and mass vaccination and the effect on all of these on emerging variants. We briefly review the current state of the global pandemic, focussing on what is, and what is not, well understood about the parameters that control viral transmission and make up the constituent parts of the basic reproductive number R 0. Major areas of uncertainty include factors predisposing to asymptomatic infection, the population fraction that is asymptomatic, the infectiousness of asymptomatic compared to symptomatic individuals, the contribution of viral transmission of such individuals and what variables influence this. The duration of immunity post infection and post vaccination is also currently unknown, as is the phenotypic consequences of continual viral evolution and the emergence of many viral variants not just in one location, but globally, given the high connectivity between populations in the modern world. The pattern of spread of new variants is also examined. We review what can be learnt from contact tracing, household studies and whole-genome sequencing, regarding where people acquire infection, and how households are seeded with infection since they constitute a major location for viral transmission. We conclude by discussing the challenges to attaining herd immunity, given the uncertainty in the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity, the threat of continued evolution of the virus as demonstrated by the emergence and rapid spread of the Delta variant, and the logistics of vaccine manufacturing and delivery to achieve universal coverage worldwide. Significantly more support from higher income countries (HIC) is required in low- and middle-income countries over the coming year to ensure the creation of community-wide protection by mass vaccination is a global target, not one just for HIC. Unvaccinated populations create opportunities for viral evolution since the net rate of evolution is directly proportional to the number of cases occurring per unit of time. The unit for assessing success in achieving herd immunity is not any individual country, but the world.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies

A newly emerged respiratory viral disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also known as pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This pandemic has resulted an unprecedented global health crisis and devastating impact on several sectors of human lives and economies. Fortunately, the average case fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 is below 2%, much lower than that estimated for MERS (34%) and SARS (11%). However, COVID-19 has a much higher transmissibility rate, as evident from the constant increase in the count of infections worldwide. This article explores the reasons behind how COVID-19 was able to cause a global pandemic crisis. The current outbreak scenario and causes of rapid global spread are examined using recent developments in the literature, epidemiological features relevant to public health awareness, and critical perspective of risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Effective pandemic risk mitigation measures have been established and amended against COVID-19 diseases, but there is still much scope for upgrading execution and coordination among authorities in terms of organizational leadership's commitment and diverse range of safety measures, including administrative control measures, engineering control measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE). The significance of containment interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic is now well established; however, there is a need for its effective execution across the globe, and for the improvement of the performance of risk mitigation practices and suppression of future pandemic crises.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a Large Cohort of Italian Police Officers

Certain professional categories are at a high occupational exposure to COVID-19. The aim of this survey was to quantify the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among police officers in Italy and identify its correlates. In this cross-sectional study, a nationally representative sample of State police employees was tested for IgG and IgM before the start of the National vaccination campaign. A total of 10,535 subjects (approximately 10% of the total workforce) participated in the study. The overall seroprevalence was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.4-5.3%). However, seropositivity was unevenly distributed across the country with a clear (p < 0.001) North-South gradient. In particular, the seroprevalence was 5.6 times higher in northern regions than in southern regions (9.0% vs. 1.6%). Most (71.2%) seropositive subjects reported having no recent symptoms potentially attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Previous dysosmia, dysgeusia, and influenza-like illness symptoms were positive predictors of being seropositive. However, the prognostic value of dysosmia depended (p < 0.05) on both sex and prior influenza-like illness. The baseline seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in police employees is considerable. A significant risk of occupational exposure, frequent asymptomatic cases and the progressive waning of neutralizing antibodies suggest that the police workers should be considered among the job categories prioritized for the booster COVID-19 vaccine dose.

COVID-19 Symptoms and Diagnoses among a Sociodemographically Diverse Cohort of Children from New York City: Lessons from the First Wave, Spring 2020

Early in the pandemic, in the North American epicenter, we investigated associations between sociodemographic factors and rates of pediatric COVID-19 diagnoses in a non-clinical setting and whether symptoms varied by child age. From 20 April-31 August 2020, COVID-19-related data were collected on 2694 children aged ≤ 18 years living in households participating in the New York University Children's Health and Environment Study. We examined differences in rates of subjective and objective diagnoses according to sociodemographic characteristics and differences in reported symptoms by child age. Children of women who were non-Hispanic White, had private health insurance, higher income, or more education were more likely to be diagnosed via WHO criteria or healthcare provider. Children of women who were Hispanic or Asian, reported low income, had less education, or were/lived with an essential worker were more likely to test positive. Older children were less likely to experience cough or runny nose and more likely to experience muscle/body aches, sore throat, headache, and loss of smell or taste than younger children. In conclusion, relying on subjective disease ascertainment methods, especially in the early stage of an outbreak when testing is not universally available, may misrepresent the true prevalence of disease among sociodemographic subgroups. Variations in symptoms by child age should be considered when determining diagnostic criteria.